1 00:00:01,920 --> 00:00:05,320 Hey everybody, welcome back to the Elon Musk Podcast. 2 00:00:05,360 --> 00:00:08,640 This is a show where we discuss the critical Crossroads, The 3 00:00:08,640 --> 00:00:13,520 Shape, SpaceX, Tesla X, The Boring Company, and Neuralink, 4 00:00:13,680 --> 00:00:17,440 and I'm your host, Will Walden. If you want uninterrupted 5 00:00:17,480 --> 00:00:20,560 episodes of the Elon Musk podcast, please go to 6 00:00:20,560 --> 00:00:26,160 clubelon.supercast.com to find out how there's a link in the 7 00:00:26,160 --> 00:00:28,040 show notes. And this episode we're going to 8 00:00:28,040 --> 00:00:31,520 be talking about the SpaceX I FT3 launch, but more 9 00:00:31,520 --> 00:00:34,320 importantly, we're going to be talking about what could 10 00:00:34,320 --> 00:00:38,320 possibly happen during the IFT 4, the integrated flight test 11 00:00:38,320 --> 00:00:41,800 four of the Starship Super heavy rocket that they launched from 12 00:00:41,800 --> 00:00:46,560 Starbase, Texas. Now the IFT 3 launch went really 13 00:00:46,560 --> 00:00:51,000 well. They made it to space. 14 00:00:51,000 --> 00:00:54,880 SpaceX made it to space again and the boost back burn of the 15 00:00:54,880 --> 00:00:58,880 booster was really great. The save stage separation was 16 00:00:59,120 --> 00:01:03,000 absolutely perfect. The booster didn't quite make it 17 00:01:03,000 --> 00:01:07,240 for a soft landing in the Gulf of Mexico, but you know, you win 18 00:01:07,240 --> 00:01:10,480 some, you lose some, right? They tested the payload door. 19 00:01:10,560 --> 00:01:13,960 The mechanism for the payload door seems like it went OK. 20 00:01:13,960 --> 00:01:16,400 It didn't go perfectly. There's a little bit of hitch 21 00:01:16,400 --> 00:01:18,640 there. So I think they have to clean 22 00:01:18,640 --> 00:01:21,960 that up a little bit. The propellant transfer 23 00:01:21,960 --> 00:01:27,600 apparently went really well. They did not do the booster or 24 00:01:27,600 --> 00:01:30,520 sorry, the engine relight while they were in space. 25 00:01:31,040 --> 00:01:34,800 So that's one thing they didn't get done, but that's one thing 26 00:01:34,800 --> 00:01:37,360 that they can do for the IFT 4 launch. 27 00:01:37,680 --> 00:01:42,520 Now, we all know how important, really important it is for 28 00:01:42,520 --> 00:01:47,480 SpaceX to get these missions absolutely perfect, but SpaceX 29 00:01:47,480 --> 00:01:52,400 also knows that they can build upon every single launch. 30 00:01:52,800 --> 00:01:57,040 So I FT1 absolutely obliterated the launchpad. 31 00:01:57,440 --> 00:02:01,680 I have T2 launchpad's fine. I have T3 launchpad's fine. 32 00:02:02,240 --> 00:02:06,120 I have T2 booster blew up right after stage separation. 33 00:02:07,400 --> 00:02:13,880 They lost the ship, they had to destroy it and this time booster 34 00:02:14,080 --> 00:02:17,680 did the boost back burn, did the flip move, didn't blew up right 35 00:02:17,680 --> 00:02:21,640 away and though it didn't do the soft landing in the Gulf of 36 00:02:21,640 --> 00:02:25,320 Mexico, I would say this is a pretty good success story for 37 00:02:25,320 --> 00:02:30,560 the booster this time. Now the ship continued on with 38 00:02:30,560 --> 00:02:36,440 its mission for a long time and almost almost made it back to 39 00:02:36,440 --> 00:02:39,480 the Indian Ocean where they were supposed to splash down, made it 40 00:02:39,480 --> 00:02:43,880 back through the atmosphere. Beautiful video from SpaceX of 41 00:02:43,880 --> 00:02:46,640 this RE entry. You can see the plasma building 42 00:02:46,640 --> 00:02:49,240 up on the heat tiles. Heat tiles seem like they're in 43 00:02:49,240 --> 00:02:52,080 really great shape, so that's another test that they had to 44 00:02:52,080 --> 00:02:55,280 get done. So they are in a really good 45 00:02:55,280 --> 00:02:58,520 spot right now with the Starship, if they've made 46 00:02:58,760 --> 00:03:01,280 adjustments to the Starship for IFT 4, which they more than 47 00:03:01,280 --> 00:03:03,880 likely have. I mean, every single rocket, 48 00:03:04,040 --> 00:03:08,360 there's an iterative process and through software updates, 49 00:03:08,360 --> 00:03:11,680 through hardware upgrades. SpaceX is building the next 50 00:03:11,680 --> 00:03:16,080 generation of starships right now and they're already being 51 00:03:16,080 --> 00:03:20,000 built. Elon says version one is not as 52 00:03:20,000 --> 00:03:22,760 good as version 2. Version 2 will not be as good as 53 00:03:22,760 --> 00:03:27,320 version 3 going forward. Version 4, version 5, but it's 54 00:03:27,320 --> 00:03:31,800 going to be astronomical, if you will, for the future of Space 55 00:03:31,800 --> 00:03:33,960 Flight. Now they needed to get the 56 00:03:34,120 --> 00:03:36,560 propellant transfer done for the NASA emissions. 57 00:03:37,400 --> 00:03:41,640 It's a milestone they needed to do in order to do a transfer 58 00:03:41,640 --> 00:03:44,280 propellant of propellant in orbit. 59 00:03:44,440 --> 00:03:49,720 And they got a small version of that done, which is a a key 60 00:03:49,720 --> 00:03:53,440 milestone for SpaceX and NASA for the upcoming Artemis 3 61 00:03:53,440 --> 00:03:56,080 mission where they will be landing people back on the moon 62 00:03:56,080 --> 00:03:58,040 for the first time in about 50 years. 63 00:03:58,680 --> 00:04:01,520 So it's a huge, huge deal that they did a propellant transfer 64 00:04:01,520 --> 00:04:06,840 demonstration and maybe next round, IFT 4, possibly they're 65 00:04:06,840 --> 00:04:10,560 going to be doing more propellant transfer in the ship 66 00:04:10,560 --> 00:04:13,240 itself. We're not exactly sure what 67 00:04:13,240 --> 00:04:15,400 they're gonna be doing with that, but I'm assuming they're 68 00:04:15,400 --> 00:04:18,440 going to up the ante, up the game a little bit, do more 69 00:04:18,440 --> 00:04:22,040 propellant transfers as they go on, test the systems internally, 70 00:04:22,320 --> 00:04:24,120 test the plumbing. Everything seemed to go well, 71 00:04:24,120 --> 00:04:25,640 though everything seemed to go well. 72 00:04:25,840 --> 00:04:28,080 There was no word that anything went bad with the propellant 73 00:04:28,080 --> 00:04:31,600 transfer. So as of right now is this 74 00:04:31,600 --> 00:04:34,800 recording, everything looks good for the propellant transfer. 75 00:04:35,200 --> 00:04:38,120 Now, like I was saying before, the Bay door, it's a Pez door 76 00:04:38,280 --> 00:04:41,840 and it opens up like a Pez dispenser and the Pez dispenser 77 00:04:42,400 --> 00:04:47,520 dispenses Starlink satellites and it looks like the door 78 00:04:47,520 --> 00:04:50,520 worked OK, not 100%. It looked like a little bit like 79 00:04:50,520 --> 00:04:54,280 a little bit slow closing, little bit of a it's kind of 80 00:04:54,280 --> 00:04:57,920 like like a garage door, you know, like if you pull up on a 81 00:04:57,920 --> 00:05:01,000 garage door, it's like it's sorted to that. 82 00:05:01,760 --> 00:05:03,880 But. It didn't seem like it was bad. 83 00:05:03,920 --> 00:05:07,720 They may just have to work on some mechanical issues, you 84 00:05:07,720 --> 00:05:11,160 know, get it to a place where it's a little bit smoother and 85 00:05:11,160 --> 00:05:12,880 then that'll be completely fixed. 86 00:05:12,880 --> 00:05:18,720 So we may see another another version of that in the next 87 00:05:18,720 --> 00:05:21,240 flight, but also they may add on to that. 88 00:05:22,040 --> 00:05:25,760 So internally in the Starship there needs to be a payload for 89 00:05:25,760 --> 00:05:27,840 these Starlinks. There needs to be a mechanism in 90 00:05:27,840 --> 00:05:29,880 there. To push them down, push them 91 00:05:29,880 --> 00:05:31,800 down, push them down, push them out. 92 00:05:31,800 --> 00:05:34,720 Of the payload door. So possibly we're going to see a 93 00:05:35,160 --> 00:05:41,200 demo of the payload door opening and also the Starlink satellite 94 00:05:41,440 --> 00:05:45,080 Pez dispenser mechanism itself in IFT 4. 95 00:05:45,360 --> 00:05:47,360 Now, is there going to be a Starlink? 96 00:05:47,360 --> 00:05:53,360 There might be one, one or two for this mechanism, but is it 97 00:05:53,360 --> 00:05:57,480 worth it to possibly disrupt the whole mission for a 98 00:05:58,000 --> 00:06:03,000 demonstration of a Starlink exit from the Starship? 99 00:06:04,320 --> 00:06:08,360 I don't know at this point for IFT 4, I think IFT 4 is going to 100 00:06:08,360 --> 00:06:11,240 be the mechanism and the door and that's it. 101 00:06:11,320 --> 00:06:15,240 I don't think we're going to get a Starlink ejection from this 102 00:06:15,240 --> 00:06:18,960 one because it's not worth it. I mean, because if a Starling 103 00:06:18,960 --> 00:06:23,600 gets stuck and starts tumbling out of control, they're going to 104 00:06:23,600 --> 00:06:25,080 have to destroy the whole mission. 105 00:06:25,200 --> 00:06:28,520 And that's not worth it for, you know, for the propellant 106 00:06:28,520 --> 00:06:33,340 transfer, for more NASA missions to get more data from RE 107 00:06:33,340 --> 00:06:35,040 entries. I don't think it's really worth 108 00:06:35,040 --> 00:06:37,400 it until they get the mechanism and the door fixed. 109 00:06:37,400 --> 00:06:39,640 So it's iterative process. I think they're going to do the 110 00:06:39,640 --> 00:06:42,880 door and I think they're going to be doing the mechanism during 111 00:06:42,880 --> 00:06:45,280 this next launch. Like I said before the 112 00:06:45,280 --> 00:06:47,560 propellant transfer, I think they're going to be doing like a 113 00:06:47,560 --> 00:06:49,120 little bit bigger of a demonstration. 114 00:06:49,400 --> 00:06:50,840 I don't think they're going to be. 115 00:06:50,840 --> 00:06:52,440 I think they're going to up the ante a little bit. 116 00:06:52,800 --> 00:06:54,600 Not exactly sure how much they're going to up the ante. 117 00:06:54,840 --> 00:06:59,280 But they do have to move some propellant around when they go 118 00:06:59,480 --> 00:07:04,600 Starship to tanker in orbit. And if they can show that they 119 00:07:04,600 --> 00:07:08,480 are capable of doing that at a smaller scale, we may see a 120 00:07:08,520 --> 00:07:11,280 tanker by the end of 2024 flying into orbit. 121 00:07:11,640 --> 00:07:16,120 And if that's the case, we may also see a propellant transfer 122 00:07:16,400 --> 00:07:22,160 from a tanker to a Starship in 2024, which would be absolutely 123 00:07:22,640 --> 00:07:25,400 mind blowing. I don't know, I don't know if 124 00:07:25,400 --> 00:07:27,880 that's going to be in the first half. 125 00:07:27,880 --> 00:07:31,280 I I'm pretty sure it's going to be in the second-half of 2024, 126 00:07:31,280 --> 00:07:35,240 probably fourth quarter 2024, around September, October, 127 00:07:35,240 --> 00:07:37,960 November, December, you know in that area. 128 00:07:38,560 --> 00:07:40,160 I think they're going to be doing something like that, 129 00:07:40,160 --> 00:07:44,160 something big to top off the year, because like Eli said 130 00:07:44,160 --> 00:07:46,160 before, they want to do 9 launches this year. 131 00:07:46,560 --> 00:07:50,160 And at the rate that they did them, that they've done them so 132 00:07:50,160 --> 00:07:54,040 far IFT 1, IFT 2, and IFT 3. Each one got subsequently 133 00:07:55,080 --> 00:07:58,760 smaller in range, so it took less time for IFT 2 than it did 134 00:07:58,760 --> 00:08:01,480 for FT1 to get ready. And then IFT 3 was less time 135 00:08:01,480 --> 00:08:05,480 than IFT 2. So we're hoping IFT 4, because 136 00:08:05,480 --> 00:08:08,400 there wasn't any real bad damage to anything. 137 00:08:09,680 --> 00:08:13,280 SpaceX is going to do a protocol where they talk to the FAA and 138 00:08:13,280 --> 00:08:16,840 tell them about a they're going to report on what happened and 139 00:08:16,840 --> 00:08:19,880 how they're going to fix it. And then if the FAA signs off on 140 00:08:19,880 --> 00:08:23,400 it, and if SpaceX has already fixed it, then the FAA will sign 141 00:08:23,400 --> 00:08:26,840 off on it immediately. And if SpaceX still has to do 142 00:08:26,840 --> 00:08:31,320 all of the testing for the booster and the ship still, so 143 00:08:32,000 --> 00:08:34,039 it's going to be a little bit, it's going to be a little while, 144 00:08:34,039 --> 00:08:36,480 but it might be two months. I'm. 145 00:08:36,520 --> 00:08:40,120 I'm guessing 2 two to three months before we see another 146 00:08:40,120 --> 00:08:42,559 launch which ift 4. I want to go. 147 00:08:42,720 --> 00:08:44,680 Let's let's try to get me there. Hey, thank. 148 00:08:44,680 --> 00:08:47,480 You so much for listening today. I really do appreciate your 149 00:08:47,480 --> 00:08:49,000 support. If you could take a second and 150 00:08:49,000 --> 00:08:51,920 hit the subscribe or the follow button on whatever podcast 151 00:08:51,920 --> 00:08:54,880 platform that you're listening on right now, I greatly 152 00:08:54,880 --> 00:08:56,560 appreciate it. It helps out the show 153 00:08:56,560 --> 00:08:57,840 tremendously. And you'll. 154 00:08:57,840 --> 00:09:01,720 Never miss an episode, and each episode is about 10 minutes or 155 00:09:01,720 --> 00:09:03,800 less to get you caught up quickly. 156 00:09:03,800 --> 00:09:07,080 And please, if you want to support the show even more, go 157 00:09:07,080 --> 00:09:12,720 to Atreoncom, Stage Zero, and please take care of yourselves 158 00:09:12,720 --> 00:09:14,640 and each other and I'll see you tomorrow.