Will Spacex's fifth Starship test flight be the first
successful launch and return to launch site for a booster?
And as preparations ramp up at Starbase, significant milestones
have been achieved, suggesting a promising trajectory for this
next test flight. Activities at Starbase are
intensifying as the 5th Starship flight draws nearer.
Major work has been completed on Launchpad B and Ship 30 has
completed a second static fire with full stack testing on the
close horizon. On July 15th, Booster 12
successfully fired all 33 engines and a full duration
static fire test at Launchpad A, and the booster was then removed
from the orbital launch mount on July 16th and returned to Mega
Bay One. Meanwhile, a hot stage ring
entered Mega Bay 2, believed to be for finalizing Booster 12.
Now, the hot stage ring is a crucial component believed to
finalize Booster 12 before SpaceX gives it a thorough
review and integrates it with Ship 30.
Preparations are ongoing at Launchpad A for Booster 12's
return to launch site landing with upgrades to the chopstick
arm actuators to protect the booster during landing, and
significant developments have also occurred at Starship
Launchpad B in the past two weeks. 2 modules or modules 2-3
and four have been stacked and concrete has been poured to
stabilize the tower base. The 5th and 6th modules are at
the launch site awaiting integration now.
According to a recent FAA document, the tower at Launchpad
B could be completed by August 15th, though it's more likely to
be finished towards the end of August.
A new, larger version of the orbital launch mount, or the
OLM, has also appeared in FAA Environmental Assessment
documentation. There is an increased likelihood
of a flame trench being built under the new OLM as piles
continue to be driven into the ground.
Now deliveries to the Sanchez site continue with Launchpad B
shortened chopsticks arriving on July 17th and the chopstick
carriage on July 18th. Now Module 7-8 and nine of the
tower are receiving preliminary upgrades.
At the Sanchez site, the CC88 OO crane will need reconfiguration
after stacking the 6th tower section to reach the intended
final height of the new tower. Now at the production site, 3
Raptor C level engines and three Raptor vacuum engines we're seen
heading into Mega Bay 2 for installation on Ship 31.
Now ship 31 has since moved into the high Bay taking ship 30s old
spot at the tile integration station.
Now ship 31 is receiving a heat shield similar to ship 30s with
a focus on enhancing Starship survivability through orbit.
And Ship 32 is confirmed to be a test article and it won't fly
with the first black two Starship expected to fly on the
7th flight. Ship 33, the first Block 2
Starship is under construction in the high Bay, featuring new
Leeward flaps, updated tiles around the nose cone, and a
smaller heat shield tile on the flaps.
Now the payload Bay is shrunk, adding about 300 tons of
propellant space, but still offers around 500 cubic meters
of usable space. Now the Starlink dispenser
payload Bay door has been installed on Ship 33, which has
seen moved from the highway to Mega Bay 2, and the F section of
Booster 15 has also moved into Mega Bay one featuring extra
composite overwrapping pressure vessels or COPV to help with
booster landing. Now there's another test article
too, Test tank 16, and it was rolled out to Massey's and
placed on the test stand on July 19th and it did a cryogenic
testing on July 25th and then it was moved into the Star factory.
It's unclear if further testing is going to occur or is
necessary in the future. Now, Ship 30 completed major
test operations after a successful heat shield upgrade.
On July 19th, it was lifted onto a static fire stand and moved to
Massey's for a final firing due to a Raptor vacuum engine
removal. On July 26th, Ship 30
successfully static fired all six engines.
Now the upgraded heat shield on Ship 30 performed well with no
tiles believed to have fallen off during the test.
Ship 30 was then moved back to the production site and later to
Sanchez, awaiting finalization and roll out of Booster 12 for
full stack testing before the next launch.
Now the goal for the final Black One ships is to perfect the heat
shield and ensure Starship can actually survive re entry.
Efforts to improve Ship 30's heat shield are aimed at
gathering re entry data to be used in the Block 2 vehicles and
also Block 3, leading to a more complete design.
Now. Full stack testing is expected
to begin soon with the 5th flight and the first RTLS
landing of a Super Heavy booster possibly less than a month away.
The ambitious test marks a critical step in Spacex's
development of a reusable launch vehicle, and they're making
final preparations for the 5th and most challenging Starship
flight yet. Unlike previous flights aiming
for sea splashdowns, they will attempt a landing back on the
launchpad using the Mecca Zilla tower equipped with chopsticks.
And Starship is the heaviest and most powerful rocket ever flown,
intended to be a rapidly reusable vehicle for large
payloads. Successfully test flighting over
the past two years, and it's progressively moved towards that
goal. Now NASA has contracted SpaceX
to develop a lunar Lander variant of Starship for
astronaut missions to the Moon, expected sometime after late
July or late 2026. We don't know exactly when, but
Elon Musk's ultimate vision is to use Starship to land humans
on Mars. Now, Flight 5 aims to catch
Starship Super Heavy Booster on the launchpad for the first
time. The tower will attempt to grab
the booster with his chopsticks and secure it, allowing it to be
slowly lowered down to the ground.
Now, previous flights saw significant progress, with the
4th flight achieving a virtual landing at sea to simulate a
Mechazilla catch. The upcoming flight builds on
that success and the data from that, with Musk indicating a 50%
chance of a successful Mechazilla catch.
That's usually his thing, 50% Now the official launch date is
not yet set, but a full duration test burn of the Rockets first
stage on July 15th indicates readiness.
Elon hinted at early August launch but that's not going to
happen. More than likely sometime in
September, possibly later in previous test flights.
And that's because the FAA previous test flights
demonstrated various levels of success with each providing
valuable data for new improvements.
And the 4th flight restore bit and completed soft splashdowns.
The Starship for entry caused some heat damage, now addressed
with new heat tile designs, and any issues during this next
launch will provide critical data for refining future designs
and processes. The iterative approach allows
rapid progress with each test flight, making even partial
successes valuable for the development of this gigantic
rocket. Now this is the riskiest flight
yet, as catching the booster at the launchpad involves potential
hazards to both the craft and ground hardware.
Despite the risks, the test will significantly advance Spacex's
goal of a fully reusable rocket system.
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if you think the next flight of Starship will be completely
successful. Will they land it?
Re return to the launch site is the major milestone for this
launch. I know that Cathy Leaders, the
basically the boss of Starbase has said they might not attempt
it this time, but I don't know. Let me know what you think in
the comments down below. Take care and I will see you in
the next one.