Hey everybody, welcome back to the Elon Musk Podcast.
This is a show where we discuss the critical crossroads, the
Shape, SpaceX, Tesla X, The Boring Company, and Neuralink.
I'm your host, Will Walden. Former President Donald J Trump,
who is currently facing 34 felony counts, has announced
plans to halt electric vehicle sales if he wins the upcoming
election, including Tesla's. He is rallying the oil and gas
industries for financial backing in exchange for reversing the
Biden administration's climate policies, including rolling back
emissions targets and slashing EV tax credits.
These proposals may not sit well with even Republican voters
given the job growth and investments linked to EV
production, especially in southern States.
And since Trump first took office in 2016, the EV market
has seen significant growth. In 2016, only around 159,000
electric vehicles were sold in the USA, figure projected to
surpass 1.5 million in 2024. And despite Trump's opposition,
the market might have reached a growth point where it could
continue without substantial federal support.
Now, analysts believe the transition to E VS will persist,
albeit possibly at a slower rate, if Trump's policies are
implemented. William Clay Ford Junior, who is
the executive chair of Ford Motor, emphasized the challenge
of adapting to fluctuating political landscapes.
He said. Our time frame as a company, our
planning time frame, is a lot longer than election cycles.
He said this to the Detroit Free Press.
And investments in US manufacturing spurred by the
Inflation Reduction Act, or the IRA, are set to continue
regardless of a potential second term for Trump.
For instance, Hyundai is investing $13 billion in EV
production in Georgia, state Trump narrowly lost in 2020.
And by targeting policies that support these investments, Trump
risks undermining his support in states reliant on manufacturing
jobs. Now, the EV market has seen
substantial investments from automakers, charging companies
and dealership networks, making it unlikely that Trump could
entirely halt his momentum. States like Texas and Florida,
traditional Republican strongholds, have seen
increasing EV adoption, second only to California in
registrations. Now, this bipartisan consumer
base suggests that Trump's hardline stance might alienate a
significant portion of the electorate.
And Trump's vocal dissidane for electric vehicles is clear.
He has falsely claimed they are inefficient and pledged to
dismantle Biden's supportive policies.
Trump has proposed a 100% tariff on E VS imported from Mexico if
he regains the presidency, stating you're not going to be
able to sell those cars. Despite Trump's potential
actions, analysts argue that the market's growth trajectory might
continue independently. A record 1.2 million Americans
bought E VS last year, representing 7.6% of new car
sales. This number is expected to rise
10% this year, indicating a tipping point toward widespread
adoption. While a Trump presidency could
slow the EV transition, it's unlikely to stop it entirely.
The Biden administration's aggressive climate policies,
including a significant Environmental Protection Agency
rule and substantial tax incentives, have been pivotal in
driving EV adoption. Effort aims to make over 50% of
new passenger vehicles all electric by 2032.
Margot Ogg, a former head of EPA transportation emissions
program, said if Trump is elected, we absolutely will not
reach Biden's target. This is important.
If you can't get more EVs on the road, you can't do better for
the world and for the economy. So I don't know why Trump is
going to try to stop EVs. I, I don't understand that.
It's all politics, as we all know.
And Trump's dismissal of scientific evidence on climate
change and his courting of the fossil fuel industry, it's all
well documented. He's urged industry executives
to contribute a billion dollars to his campaign promising to
reverse Biden's climate policies if re elected.
Now there's a little problem here because some of these
fossil fuel companies are transitioning to offering more
EV tech in the future. BP British Petroleum, as it used
to be called, is transitioning to EV chargers.
They're making a whole charge for EV chargers.
So the whole industry of fossil fuels is changing with the
times, and so should everybody else, in my opinion.
I mean, if you're a fan of Tesla, you should not be a fan
of what Trump is doing. And a second Trump
administration could impact the EV market, though.
And it could rollback emissions regulations in altering tax
credit rules that Biden set up. And if Republicans gain control
of Congress, too, they might work to repeal parts of the
Inflation Reduction Act, which has provided substantial support
for clean energy and EV manufacturing.
And despite these potential challenges, some automakers may
continue their EV initiatives. Analysts say that EV sales will
persist, the company's continuing to build charging
infrastructure and other supply chain components.
And also the industry might lobby the politicians to
maintain favorable policies. So historically, automakers have
resisted stringent emissions controls.
However, given the current investment in EV tech and
infrastructure, sudden policy reversal could harm the whole
industry. The automotive sector has
significantly evolved since 2017 with substantial investments in
EV productions, and automakers like Ford have publicly opposed
policy changes that disrupt long term planning.
I mean, they plan decades into the future.
And Ford has intervened in lawsuits supporting EPA
regulations against Republican efforts to block emission limits
now, William Clay Ford Junior said.
Our time frame as a company, our planning time frame is a lot
longer than election cycles. Remember that.
And other automakers might seek to negotiate slower
implementation of emissions regulations rather than their
complete removal. The Republican controlled
Congress stance on rescinding EV tax credits remains uncertain.
Right now. There's benefits from these
credits that bring business to Georgia, South Carolina and Ohio
and other states. And Hyundai's significant
investment in Georgia, $13 billion for EV and battery
plants. It shows that the scale is
improving and everything's getting bigger.
It underscores the ongoing industrial shift, which might be
resilient against politicians now, should Trump attempt to
limit tax credits through Treasury regulations,
particularly targeting materials like Chinese graphite, The EV
industry might only face temporary setbacks, but could
probably drive the price up a little bit.
Companies are also planning domestic graphite processing and
alternatives, suggesting that the market's growth may continue
through all of this. And federal tax credits have
played a crucial role in making EVs more affordable for
everybody. Because not everybody can go out
and buy a $50,000 car that's a huge down payment for a house
and make it affordable with these tax credits.
And while Trump presidency might slow sales, it wouldn't destroy
the whole market. EVs are here to stay, Tesla's
here to stay, and the $4000 tax credit has been instrumental in
reducing costs for customers. Now the 29 or 2021 bipartisan
infrastructure laws allocation of $7.5 billion for e.g.
EV charging stations could be at risk if Trump works with
Congress to rescind it. However, private investments in
state funds have often outpaced federal programs.
Tesla's going to continue building their charger
infrastructure. And Sarah Raphaelson of EV GOAT
said increasing demand for EV charges in Republican LED states
indicate a growing market beyond federal influence.
The trend suggests that EV adoption could persist even with
potential political setbacks. Now, Republican strategist Mike
Murphy and the founder of the EV Politics Project pointed out
that some Republican insiders quietly support EVs.
Of course, because we all know that politicians are a little
bit underhanded sometimes, and they don't always tell the
truth. They do little white lies.
He said there will be sober, quiet voices even in Trump land
that will push back. And the nice thing about Trump
is that he can always change. He's totally transactional at
possible shifts in Trump's stance based on practical
considerations. So if basically, if Trump can't
get the money from the oil companies, the big oil
companies, and the market is changing and everybody's pushing
against him, he may change his mind.
And that would be a good thing for all EV owners and Tesla
fans. And there's ongoing investment
in the EV market right now, particularly in states with
Republican leadership. And it's gonna be complex
dynamics if Trump returns to office, the market's evolution
driven by substantial private and state investments,
suggesting resilience that could withstand any Trump or federal
policy changes. Hey, thank you so much for
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