What if the first permanent human outpost on the moon
doesn't have a NASA patch or a United States flag, but a
Chinese flag? What happens if in just a few
years, China isn't just visiting the moon, but controlling where
the next chapter of human space activity gets written?
Now Beijing has given its answer.
A lunar landing by 20-30 and a base by 2035 and a sprawling
outpost network by mid century now.
No vague timelines here, no future possibilities.
It's all written, mapped out and already in motion.
It's a state strategy, and over the past decade China has
transformed from a competent space player to the most
aggressive builder of off world infrastructure since the Cold
War. It's human moon program now has
an operational countdown. The Long March 10 Super Heavy
rocket is already in development.
So is the new crude Lander. And they're developing lunar
grade Eva suits, building new launch infrastructure and
finalizing astronaut selections. Now, the tone from officials
tactically understated. Everything is preceded in an
orderly manner in China's space lexicon.
It's usually assigned Things are ahead of schedule.
This all stems from a space program that's been logging
serious accomplishments. China landed a Rover on the far
side of the moon in 2019. It brought back lunar samples in
2020. Is Tianyang space Station has
been permanently crewed since 2021 and its current planning
includes Shenzhou 20 and 21. The two new crude missions to
orbit that are intended is training grounds for longer
duration deep space operations. The human element is expanding
to China recently inked a deal with Pakistan to train and fly
astronauts to Tiangong, the first confirmed foreign visitors
to the space station. That move isn't just a nod to
international goodwill. It's a signal China is willing
to share its latforms as long as it's in the driver's seat.
And at the heart of this effort is the International Lunar
Research Station, or ILRS, first announced in 2021 alongside
Russia. The project has not become a
mostly At the heart of this effort is the International
Lunar Research Station, or ILRS. First announced in 2021
alongside of Russia, the project has now become a mostly Chinese
LED venture. The plan is methodical and built
around 2 phases. First a basic but operational
research at the Moon South Pole by 2035, then an expansion into
a multisite lunar system by 2050, featuring nodes at the
equator and the far side. Think of it as less as a moon
base and more as a small off world nation linked together by
orbiting hubs and robotic logistics.
This is a comprehensive lunar station network that utilizes
the Lunar Orbit station as its central hub and the South Pole
station as its primary base, and it'll include exploration nodes
on the lunar equator in the far side of the Moon.
It's a blueprint for permanent infrastructure, but China's not
planning to haul up steel and concrete from Earth to build it.
That would be logistically absurd.
Instead, they're testing the moon's own dirt as a
construction material. They recently launched brick
samples made from simulated lunar regolith to the Tiangong
space station to assess how the hold up under deep space
conditions where temperatures swing between 180 and -190°C.
The bricks are a key part of their 2028 mission, which will
test in situ construction using autonomous 3D printed robots
nicknamed Chinese Supermasons. That mission will also finalize
site selection for the ILRS. China has zeroed in on the lunar
South Pole for good reason. What are the few places on the
moon where sunlight is nearly continuous?
And that's ideal for solar power generation.
And it's home to craters that may contain large reserves of
water ice. That water can be split into
hydrogen and oxygen, essential for breathable air, drinkable
water and also rocket fuel. Then there's helium, 3A rare
isotope trapped in the moon's soil that China sees as a long
term solution to its energy puzzle.
It's barely present on Earth but relatively abundant on the moon.
And if nuclear fusion ever crosses the threshold into
commercial viability, Helium 3 could fuel clean reactors with
10 times the energy output of traditional fission without
radioactive waste. Whoever controls Helium 3
controls the future of energy markets.
Now that makes the ILRS not just a science base, but a potential
mining operation. Chinese researchers at the
Beijing Research Institute of Uranium Geology are already
working on extraction techniques.
And China's Chang Six and Seven missions are focused on
identifying helium 3 rich areas ahead of planned harvest trials
in the Twenty 30s. Now this space is not only a
platform for lunar science, though, it's also a test bed for
human Mars missions. The logic is straightforward.
You prove everything on the Moon.
China's three phase Space Development Road map, released
officially in 2024, lays out the progression from Earth orbit to
the Moon to Mars and beyond. Phase 1, running through 2027,
is about building technical competence.
Phase two, 2028 through 2035, moves into human lunar landings
and base operations. Phase three target in the Twenty
40s and beyond includes crude missions to Mars and other deep
space destinations. Tianwin 3, China's planned Mars
sample return mission, is slated for 2028 now.
If successful, it would beat NASA's equivalent project by a
few years. That wouldn't just be a
scientific win, it would hand China a major diplomatic talking
point as the first country to pull off a round trip to Mars
now. And China isn't doing that
alone, though There's 13 countries involved, including
Russia, Egypt, Senegal, and they've all signed up for
participation in the ILRS. The number could reach 50 by
2050. It's a contrast to the US-led
Artemis Accords with emphasized transparency and rulemaking.
Partners can come on board, but it's Beijing's ship, and the US
has repeatedly pointed out that the moon isn't for claiming 1967
Outer Space Treaty prohibits sovereign ownership of celestial
territory. But the treaty has loopholes.
Any country can withdraw with 12 months notice.
And while legal scholars debate the letter of the law, China may
be preparing to demonstrate a kind of de facto control through
infrastructure presence, not with flags, but with permanent
operation. In 2012, a Defense analyst
report laid out a plausible future scenario in which China
could assert operational authority over its lunar
territory, citing both strategic necessity and prestige.
That hasn't happened yet, though.
But now that China is building exactly that kind of base, the
scenario seems less speculative. Then there's the military angle.
China's space program is officially civilian, but dual
use technology is hard to ignore.
Communication arrays, nuclear power systems, and long range
sensors all serve scientific missions and also military ones.
A lunar presence enables space based surveillance, logistics
control, and sys lunar operations that extend far
beyond the Moon itself. Sys lunar space, the volume
between Earth and the Moon, is quickly becoming the next
theater of strategic interest. By controlling infrastructure
along that route, China could influence not only lunar
operations, but future operational traffic, deep space
launches, and also satellite networks.
None of these require weapons though, just the ability to
observe, respond, and control the flow of information.
So why does any of this matter to the rest of the world?
Because the Moon is no longer neutral.
It's becoming a domain of economic, political, and
strategic war competition. Whoever dominates the moon could
shape global access to off world resources, influence energy
markets, and control interplanetary logistics.
It's a live geopolitical issue now.
It also matters because space law hasn't caught up.
Most agreements around celestial activity are decades old and
vague by today's standards. But no enforcement mechanics, no
global authority managing space conduct.
It's infrastructure that sets the rules, and right now China
is the one pouring concrete. And if China succeeds in
building the ILRS by 2035, with mining and power systems in
place, by the twenty 40's, the rest of the world will be
negotiating from behind. Not because they lost a race or
a war, but because they never ran in it.
I want to know what you think about China being ahead of NASA
and ahead of the United States in the Artemis program.
Let me know in the comments down below.
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