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Tesla's head of Autopilot and AI software just delivered some
uncomfortable truths about the company's autonomous driving
capabilities. They told an interviewer that
Tesla's Full Self driving technology still trails Google's
Waymo by a couple of years, despite years of bold promises
by Elon Musk about robo taxis and coast to coast autonomous
drives. This admission comes at a
particularly awkward time for Tesla, which plans to launch its
robo taxi service Pilot next month and has spent years
marketing itself as the leader in automotive autonomy.
Now the timing raises serious questions about whether Tesla's
self driving promises match the technical reality on the ground.
This assessment breaks from Tesla's usual pattern or
projecting confidence about its autonomous driving timeline,
making the comments all the more striking for engineers and
consumers who've been waiting for Tesla to deliver on its self
driving vision. Now the gap between Tesla and
Wemo comes down to fundamental technical choices made years
ago. Tesla chose a camera only
approach called Tesla Vision, while Wemo equipped its vehicles
with expensive Lidar sensors that cost around $75,000 per
unit. Elon Musk famously called
lighter a crutch and bet Tesla's autonomous strategy to cameras,
and they cost between a dollar and $10 per sensor.
This decision seems smart from a cost perspective, but it created
technical challenges that Tesla still hasn't solved.
Now the performance difference shows up in real world testing
scenarios. Business Insider recently tested
Tesla's Full Self Driving software and watched it drive
into a bike lane before running a red lane when MO's vehicle
took a different route during the same test and avoided both
problems entirely. These aren't edge cases or minor
glitches, but fundamental safety issues that highlight the
technical gap that they acknowledged The Tesla's camera
only approach faces inherit limitations that make autonomous
driving harder to achieve. Cameras rely on external
lighting conditions and struggle in situations more lighter
excels like detecting objects in complete darkness or measuring
precise distances to other vehicles.
The software engineer admitted that solving autonomous driving
with vision only sensors is technically challenging, but
argues it's more valuable for the world to have a low cost
solution. This trade off between cost and
capability has become Tesla's defining characteristic in the
autonomous driving space. The cost argument has become
less compelling as lidar prices have dropped dramatically.
Modern lidar units now cost under $1000, cheap enough for
Toyota to include them in a $20,000 Chinese market electric
vehicle. Tesla's cars cost twice as much,
but still rely exclusively on cameras now.
Power efficiency is another factor, and cameras use .9 watts
each, compared to 10 watts for a Luminar Halo lidar unit.
Tesla's Hardware 4 cars use eight external cameras, so the
total power consumption difference isn't as dramatic as
it appears. Tesla's struggle with autonomous
driving matter because they affect the entire electric
vehicle industry's capabilities. When the market leader in
electric vehicles repeatedly missing self driving deadlines,
that undermines consumer confidence in the brand in in
autonomous technology across all manufacturers.
Tesla has been promising a fully autonomous Coast to Coast Dr.
since 2016, and each missed deadline makes the next promise
harder to believe for some consumers.
Now this credibility gap extends beyond Tesla to other companies
making similar claims about autonomous driving deadlines.
Now, the admission also effects Tesla's business model and stock
valuation. Tesla trades at a premium
compared to traditional automakers, partly because
investors believe the company will generate revenue from
autonomous robo taxis. If Tesla's self driving
technology really lags Waymo by years, that robo taxi revenue
might take much longer to materialize, And investors
expect the gap between Tesla's market valuation and its actual
autonomous driving capabilities could force a significant
repricing of the stock. Meanwhile, Tesla sales problems
extend beyond autonomous driving into core business fundamentals.
The company's global deliveries dropped 13% in the first quarter
of this year, while EV sales increased in the United States,
Europe, and China. A Musk blames the decline on
factory retooling for the refresh model.
Why? Claiming the Tesla had to shut
down production facilities worldwide to implement changes.
He insists that retooling was necessary and timed for the
first quarter, when seasonal demand traditionally runs lower.
Now, Musk claims Tesla has seen a major rebound in demand
following the factory retooling, but the sales data doesn't
support this assertion yet. Tesla's April numbers continue
declining, especially in Europe, where some countries saw drops.
As large as 80% of China represents Tesla's second
largest market, and sales there fell 9% in April, while the
overall Chinese electric vehicle market grew 38%.
Now, these numbers suggest Tesla's problems go deeper than
temporary factory shutdowns, and the sales decline coincides with
Musk's controversial political activities and his relationship
with President Donald Trump. Many analysts point to Musk's
political involvement as a factor in Tesla's declining
sales, particularly among environmentally conscious
consumers who traditionally buy electric vehicles.
The Musk discusses this concern, asking how much consumers really
care about a CEO's political views when making purchasing
decisions. The question reveals a
disconnect between Musk's perception and market reality.
As consumer sentiment data suggests, political associations
do influence buying decisions for many Tesla customers now.
Tesla's current situation illustrates the challenge of
managing technical innovation alongside public expectations.
Though the company built its reputation on ambitious promises
about autonomous driving and sustainable transportation, but
delivering on those promises has proven more difficult than
anticipated. Now, this honest assessment of
Tesla's position relative to Waymo provides a rare glimpse
into the technical reality behind the marketing claims.
That admission the Tesla trails Waymo by years contradicts the
company's public messaging about being ready to launch robo taxi
services. Now it's a fresh departure for
Tesla's usual confident public statements about autonomous
driving. The willingness to acknowledge
this position relative to competitor suggests the company
might be adopting a more realistic approach to
communicating about its self driving timeline.
And whether this honesty translates into more achievable
promises and better execution remains to be seen.
But it provides A clearer picture of where Tesla actually
stands in the race toward full autonomy.
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