Hey everyone, welcome back to the Elon Musk Podcast.
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next two weeks. We're evolving.
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So stay tuned for our official relaunch coming soon.
Now let's get into this episode. The number is staggering, 200
billion dollars. That's what Elon Musk's Doge
claims. It has saved the American
taxpayers since President Donald Trump returned to the White
House. But one unavoidable question now
grips anyone hearing the claim. How much of it is real?
How much is smoke and mirrors? And what evidence is there
behind these extraordinary figures?
Question that matters deeply because the size of the claim
implies the government overhaul of historic proportions,
reshaping where billions of dollars flow every single month.
Now, if Doge's numbers are even Mostly True, it would suggest an
era of unprecedented fiscal tightening.
And if not, it raises concerns about transparency and
accountability at the highest levels.
Understanding the reality behind these claims is not just a
matter of curiosity, though. And when Elon Musk introduced
those shortly after Trump's inauguration, the concept was
simple. Get aggressive, cut waste,
eliminate bloated spending, and cancel unnecessary projects
leftover from past administrations.
The problems were huge, the scope is large, and its
ambitions are clear. The targets contracts, grants,
and federal leases, while also aiming to slash fraud and trim
the government workforce. DOGE has positioned itself as
the muscle behind Trump's push to overhaul Washington spending
habits. Now, DOGE publishes a running
tally of its reported savings on its official website, where it
claims to have reached $160 billion in savings as of April
20th. Yet only about 40% of that
figure is broken down into specific transactions that can
be independently reviewed. Analysts from the BBC Verify
took a closer look at these numbers and found serious gaps
in documentation and evidence supporting these claims.
Now, in October of last year, Elon Musk raised eyebrows when
he pledged to cut at least $2 trillion from the federal
budget. However, the goal was later
scaled down. By April 10th, Musk was speaking
about aiming for about 150 billion in savings by the end of
2026, concentrating efforts on reducing fraud and waste.
That's a huge difference. Now.
The revised figure still represents an immense amount of
money though, especially considering federal budget for
the last fiscal year was $6.75 trillion.
Now, we pulled some data directly from DOJA site on April
23rd and examined the reported savings from cancelled
contracts, grants and leases. The findings reveal that
approximately half of the itemized savings had a
corresponding document or some form of cited evidence.
This leaves a substantial portion of claims savings
essentially undocumented. Moreover, scrutiny from U.S.
media revealed mistakes within Doge's accounting altogether.
For instance, the agency had boasted about an $8 billion
saving from canceling an immigration contract, when in
reality the contract's full value was only $8 million.
The DOGE acknowledged the errors and stated that they're working
to upload all necessary receipts and documentation in a
digestible and transparent manner.
Now. Currently, receipts accounting
for only about 30 ercent of total savings are available,
with some listed as unavailable for legal reasons.
Now, understanding how DOGE calculated savings is key to
evaluating its claims. Though many savings figures are
based not on actual expenditures that were stopped, but on
projected maximum contract values extending years into the
future, the contracts often list an upper spending limit, not an
actual or expected expense. The real costs are only tailored
after the contract is actually completed.
Now, a close examination of Doge's four largest claimed
savings reveals discrepancies between the numbers and reality.
These four savings supposedly added up to $8.3 billion.
However, when comparing the available documentation and
consulting experts, the actual figures appear far lower.
The biggest individual saving to which claims is $2.9 billion
from cancelling a facility construction contract intended
to house migrant children in Texas.
The contract signed during the Biden administration is
scheduled end date of 2028. Yet it was reviewed annually,
meaning there was no guarantee of full renewal.
And according to a source, the $2.9 billion figure was based on
speculative maximum figures that would never have been realized.
The actual immediate saving from halting the contract was closer
to $153 million, not 2.9 billion.
Now, operational costs were 18,000,000 per month, and the
site never reached its intended maximum occupancy.
For the second case, DOGE claimed to save $1.9 billion by
cancelling a contract between the IRS and an IT company, which
is Centennial Technologies. Now, the linked FPDS document
showed a maximum value of 1.9 billion, but reported $0.00 in
actual spending so far. Now, this doesn't necessarily
mean that no money was spent, as government departments often
delay updating expenditure and contract databases.
Furthermore, the CEO of Centennial Technologies told the
New York Times that the deal was already terminated during the
Biden administration before DOGE could take credit for cancelling
it. The third largest saving listed
by DOGE involved cancelling a $2.4 billion IT services
contract with A1 Fed Impact for the Department of Defense.
DOGE claimed 1.76 billion in savings from this cancellation.
However, again, there is no evidence of any spending against
the contract at the time it was terminated.
It remains unclear how DOGE calculated the $1.76 billion
figure, and neither the Pentagon nor the contractor has provided
any clarity on this matter and they should know they were part
of it. The 4th claim large savings here
1.75 from DOGE canceling USAID grant to GAVI, an international
Health Organization that works to improve vaccine access.
According to usaspending.gov linked page confirmed that $880
million had been paid to GAVI in three installments during the
Biden administration, and their spokesperson said that they were
unaware of any termination notice.
Without confirmation from USAID, it remains a mystery how DOGE
arrived and it's $1.75 billion saving figure now.
The credibility of Dojo's reporting savings matters
because these claims are being used politically to justify
sweeping changes to federal departments and budgets.
When savings are exaggerated or poorly documented, it undermines
public trust and raises questions about how government
reforms are being communicated to the public and for everyday
Americans. The operations of DOGE have real
world effects. Cutting federal spending can
impact everything from government services, health
programs and infrastructure projects, the grants for
research, and also education too.
A misleading claim Misleading claims of cost savings could
mask reductions in essential services that millions depend
on. And moreover, if Doge's figures
continue to be presented without any solid evidence or data, it
could erode the standard of accountability the citizens
suspect from federal agencies. Transparency in spending and in
cuts is crucial for ensuring that the government acts
responsibly with public money. And beyond the practical impact,
the political ramifications are equally important.
Musk's leadership of DOGE has become a central symbol for
Trump's return to a smaller government platform.
Inaccurate or exaggerated figures risk providing critics
with ammo to attack Natalie Musk.
But the broader political mission behind it, and also
Trump? DOGE has done extensive work,
don't get me wrong, And according to its site, it's
reviewing thousands of contracts, grants, and leases
with a goal of trimming operational expenses across all
departments. But if the documentation does
not keep pace with the claims, its credibility could suffer
irreparable damage. But it's worth noting that
cutting government spending at the scale that doge claims would
be an almost unprecedented achievement.
Historic efforts to slash federal budgets, such as during
Reagan, often took years and encountered strong political
resistance. Attempting to achieve hundreds
of billions in cuts within months raises logistical and
bureaucratic challenges that cannot be glossed over now.
Adding to the skepticism are Musk shifting targets for
savings. Going from a $2 trillion target
to just 150 billion in a matter of months suggests that even
within Doge, there's uncertainties.
Elon didn't look at the data before he made the claim and as
an engineer you never under produce an over promise.
There's uncertainties about what is achievable from DOGE now.
Now. Further complicating matters,
the cancellation of contracts often carries hidden costs, such
as penalties for early termination, legal challenges,
or the need to renegotiate future contracts at higher
prices. Doge's reported savings do not
appear to account for these potential side effects.
And another layer of complexity comes from the nature of
government contracts themselves. Many contracts are written with
future contingencies in mind. Simply canceling a contract that
had not yet been fully activated does not always equate to an
immediate budget reduction. Despite appearances now, several
watchdog groups have called for an independent audit of Doja's
reported savings. Such review would likely require
months of detailed analysis, contract by contract, grant by
grant, before producing a reliable figure, and until that
happens, the exact amount saved remains uncertain.
As of now, the official DOGE site lists $160 billion in
estimated savings, but with less than half of those savings
traceable to public documents and multiple examples of
accounting discrepancies, we don't really know what's going
on behind the scenes at DOGE. Hey, thank you so much for
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