1 00:00:00,720 --> 00:00:04,280 Thanks to our amazing community members like you, we've reached 2 00:00:04,280 --> 00:00:08,880 the top 15 of Spotify's video podcast, the Top 10 audio 3 00:00:08,880 --> 00:00:12,280 podcasts on both Apple and Spotify for the tech category, 4 00:00:12,480 --> 00:00:15,800 so you all make this possible. If you want to support us more, 5 00:00:16,079 --> 00:00:20,520 check out our Patreon that's patreon.com/stage 0 News so we 6 00:00:20,520 --> 00:00:24,880 can keep this free and open for you to enjoy. 7 00:00:26,120 --> 00:00:27,960 Something interesting happened the other day. 8 00:00:28,160 --> 00:00:31,720 I was looking through our stats on Spotify and Apple Podcasts 9 00:00:31,960 --> 00:00:37,400 and I noticed that about 55% of you are not subscribed to the 10 00:00:37,400 --> 00:00:39,760 show. That means 45% of you are 11 00:00:39,760 --> 00:00:43,040 subscribed and I really do appreciate your support, but the 12 00:00:43,040 --> 00:00:47,480 other 55% of you are awesome. But I'm going to ask you for a 13 00:00:47,480 --> 00:00:48,960 favor. Could you please hit the 14 00:00:48,960 --> 00:00:51,760 subscribe button? It'll take you one second, but I 15 00:00:51,760 --> 00:00:55,920 promise you 10 years of this podcast for free, no pay walls. 16 00:00:56,200 --> 00:00:58,640 I'm not going to charge you anything ever, but I'm going to 17 00:00:58,640 --> 00:01:00,600 give you 10 years of this show for free. 18 00:01:00,600 --> 00:01:03,160 I've already been doing it for five years, and I plan on doing 19 00:01:03,160 --> 00:01:05,319 it for 10 more. And the only way that we can 20 00:01:05,319 --> 00:01:07,520 continue doing this is with your support. 21 00:01:08,000 --> 00:01:11,000 So one second of your time to hit the subscribe button right 22 00:01:11,000 --> 00:01:13,840 now would help the show tremendously. 23 00:01:14,360 --> 00:01:23,340 Thank you so much. Elon Musk says AI and robots can 24 00:01:23,340 --> 00:01:27,900 push US output to grow faster than prices within three years. 25 00:01:28,920 --> 00:01:32,320 Now we're talking about his claim that this surge can ease 26 00:01:32,320 --> 00:01:35,040 the federal debt. It set up a future where work 27 00:01:35,040 --> 00:01:40,000 becomes optional now. It links today's inflation 28 00:01:40,000 --> 00:01:41,800 pressure to tomorrow's labor choices. 29 00:01:41,800 --> 00:01:46,320 He adds that money could fade in relevance once machines meet 30 00:01:46,320 --> 00:01:48,840 most needs. And how did those claims fit 31 00:01:48,840 --> 00:01:50,880 together? And what would they change for 32 00:01:50,880 --> 00:01:53,360 you? It's a very bold claim. 33 00:01:53,680 --> 00:01:56,600 We know how Elon likes to talk about things. 34 00:01:56,600 --> 00:02:00,560 He's a futurist. He wants to make robots that do 35 00:02:00,560 --> 00:02:02,440 everything for us and then we can just hang out. 36 00:02:03,480 --> 00:02:06,480 But after the break, I'll map this three-year timeline out for 37 00:02:06,480 --> 00:02:10,600 you for output versus inflation, his twenty year horizon for 38 00:02:10,600 --> 00:02:14,760 optional work, and his idea of a universal high income funded by 39 00:02:14,760 --> 00:02:19,000 abundance universal high income. It's a little bit different than 40 00:02:19,000 --> 00:02:21,880 just universal income. He's saying that everybody will 41 00:02:21,880 --> 00:02:25,560 be pretty well off and I'll connect these points to energy, 42 00:02:25,560 --> 00:02:29,200 robotics and policy changes you would feel in your daily budget. 43 00:02:29,800 --> 00:02:32,640 Picture a conference hall with bright stage lights, a camera 44 00:02:32,640 --> 00:02:35,800 sweeping across a room of founders and policy makers, and 45 00:02:35,800 --> 00:02:38,560 Musk repeating the same thesis in different words. 46 00:02:38,560 --> 00:02:42,840 We will compare near term price relief to long term changes in 47 00:02:42,840 --> 00:02:45,720 jobs and we'll ground each step in the sources. 48 00:02:46,160 --> 00:02:50,320 And we will get right into that right after this very short 49 00:02:50,360 --> 00:02:55,720 break. Musk ties AI driven productivity 50 00:02:55,720 --> 00:02:59,720 to easing inflation now and to optional work later. 51 00:02:59,720 --> 00:03:01,840 Nobody wants to work. We all want to hang out on the 52 00:03:01,840 --> 00:03:03,640 beach and hang out with their friends. 53 00:03:03,640 --> 00:03:07,280 And he lays out a short fuse for price effects and a longer arc 54 00:03:07,280 --> 00:03:11,840 for labor with robots doing a growing share of physical tasks. 55 00:03:12,120 --> 00:03:13,800 And here's the key point to all of this. 56 00:03:14,160 --> 00:03:17,800 He treats productivity as the engine that touches your grocery 57 00:03:17,800 --> 00:03:21,840 bill, your job options and the government's interest costs. 58 00:03:22,600 --> 00:03:24,520 And let's start with the first fact. 59 00:03:24,880 --> 00:03:29,840 It says AI and robotics can raise outcome or output so 60 00:03:29,840 --> 00:03:33,400 quickly that goods and services will grow faster than inflation 61 00:03:33,600 --> 00:03:37,800 within about three years. And inflation is the average 62 00:03:37,800 --> 00:03:40,440 rate at which prices rise across the economy. 63 00:03:40,760 --> 00:03:44,520 When supply rises faster than demand, businesses feel pressure 64 00:03:44,520 --> 00:03:48,640 to cut prices or add value for the same price, and households 65 00:03:48,640 --> 00:03:52,680 like yours feel relief. Now hold on to that detail. 66 00:03:53,280 --> 00:03:56,240 Now I want to explain the debt link in clean terms. 67 00:03:56,680 --> 00:03:59,320 The federal government pays interest on a very large debt. 68 00:04:00,200 --> 00:04:02,960 Higher interest rates make that bill larger. 69 00:04:03,160 --> 00:04:07,280 And if AI expands supply and cools inflation, the central 70 00:04:07,280 --> 00:04:10,400 bank can ease rates, which lowers interest costs. 71 00:04:10,400 --> 00:04:14,680 Over time, that limits how fast the debt burden grows, and it 72 00:04:14,680 --> 00:04:17,880 gives policy makers room to fund other priorities. 73 00:04:18,519 --> 00:04:21,720 Let's do a quick reset here. Musk's near term claim is very 74 00:04:21,720 --> 00:04:23,480 simple. More output. 75 00:04:23,760 --> 00:04:28,640 Robots do all the hard work. Less inflation pressure, lower 76 00:04:28,680 --> 00:04:33,240 financing strain. Now he sets up a second clock. 77 00:04:33,240 --> 00:04:36,280 He predicts that within less than 20 years, you will not have 78 00:04:36,280 --> 00:04:40,400 to work at all if you don't want to, because machines will do 79 00:04:40,400 --> 00:04:43,200 most production. Productivity is the amount of 80 00:04:43,200 --> 00:04:48,080 output you get for each hour of work, and if machines raise that 81 00:04:48,080 --> 00:04:52,560 number far beyond historical norms, the economy can meet 82 00:04:52,560 --> 00:04:55,160 basic needs with far fewer human hours. 83 00:04:56,240 --> 00:04:59,760 That opens a new question about how income flows to you when a 84 00:04:59,760 --> 00:05:03,840 company's value comes from AI and robotics rather than labor. 85 00:05:04,680 --> 00:05:08,680 And here is where this goes. He frames one answer as a 86 00:05:08,720 --> 00:05:11,800 universal high income. The idea is that extreme 87 00:05:11,800 --> 00:05:14,880 productivity creates enough abundance to cover essentials 88 00:05:14,880 --> 00:05:19,200 and more, even as paid work shifts to choice rather than 89 00:05:19,200 --> 00:05:21,840 necessity. That changes how you plan your 90 00:05:21,840 --> 00:05:25,520 career, how cities plan services, and how schools train 91 00:05:25,520 --> 00:05:28,480 people for roles that machines can't do. 92 00:05:29,240 --> 00:05:32,320 It also puts new weight on the design of tax benefits and 93 00:05:32,320 --> 00:05:35,840 ownership models. Three years for disinflation 94 00:05:35,840 --> 00:05:39,520 from supply growth, 2 decades for optional work backed by 95 00:05:39,520 --> 00:05:42,880 abundant output. And then he connects these 96 00:05:42,880 --> 00:05:48,560 timelines to a physical product, Optimus, Tesla's robot. 97 00:05:49,480 --> 00:05:53,320 He's saying that it can do many routine tasks safely and 98 00:05:53,320 --> 00:05:57,080 cheaply, which could eliminate poverty by lowering the cost of 99 00:05:57,080 --> 00:05:59,480 essentials. A general purpose robot is a 100 00:05:59,480 --> 00:06:02,760 machine that can handle different physical tasks rather 101 00:06:02,760 --> 00:06:06,640 than just one fixed task. If units like that become 102 00:06:06,640 --> 00:06:09,880 reliable and affordable, factories, warehouses, and homes 103 00:06:10,320 --> 00:06:12,520 change how they get that work done. 104 00:06:12,840 --> 00:06:16,480 No more folding clothes, people. No more doing your own laundry 105 00:06:16,480 --> 00:06:18,840 or vacuuming or doing the dishes. 106 00:06:19,280 --> 00:06:21,560 Those are things that take up the time that you could be 107 00:06:21,560 --> 00:06:23,360 spending with your family and your friends. 108 00:06:23,600 --> 00:06:25,880 And that's what Elon is talking about when he talks about the 109 00:06:25,880 --> 00:06:28,160 Optus robot. That opens up new capital 110 00:06:28,160 --> 00:06:31,360 spending and squeezes unit costs across supply chains. 111 00:06:32,000 --> 00:06:33,840 Now let's get specific on prices here, though. 112 00:06:33,840 --> 00:06:36,400 This is very important because you feel those first. 113 00:06:36,760 --> 00:06:39,560 We all know the economy is not that good right now. 114 00:06:39,920 --> 00:06:42,920 And if robots handle warehouse picking, packing and late night 115 00:06:42,920 --> 00:06:48,240 restocking, which they kind of do right now, look at an Amazon 116 00:06:48,240 --> 00:06:50,160 warehouse. It's mainly robots. 117 00:06:50,840 --> 00:06:54,400 Delivery windows will shrink and labor bottlenecks will ease up. 118 00:06:54,760 --> 00:06:58,160 But if instead of an Amazon robot, you have an optimist 119 00:06:58,160 --> 00:07:03,920 robot walking around carrying boxes, that may do that last bit 120 00:07:04,280 --> 00:07:08,080 that the humans do, and the robots will be driving the cars. 121 00:07:08,080 --> 00:07:11,720 If it's not a robot physically driving the cars, it's a robot 122 00:07:11,720 --> 00:07:15,360 car delivering your goods and then a robot getting out of that 123 00:07:15,360 --> 00:07:20,080 car, taking it to your door, and then dropping it off for you. 124 00:07:21,000 --> 00:07:22,760 Now that's a very simple task, right? 125 00:07:23,640 --> 00:07:25,680 Pick up a box, take it to your front door. 126 00:07:26,040 --> 00:07:29,320 But you add things in there, like what if there's a dog? 127 00:07:29,920 --> 00:07:32,880 What if there's something in the the walkway? 128 00:07:33,280 --> 00:07:35,680 What if there's kids around or if they're a bunch of people 129 00:07:35,680 --> 00:07:38,120 playing football in front of your house? 130 00:07:38,680 --> 00:07:42,640 What does the delivery robot do? It's gonna be trained to handle 131 00:07:42,640 --> 00:07:44,240 the situations. And he's saying everything like 132 00:07:44,240 --> 00:07:46,880 3 to 20 years somewhere in that timeline. 133 00:07:47,560 --> 00:07:51,040 Optimist Robot is nowhere near that right now, Nowhere near 134 00:07:51,040 --> 00:07:53,080 that right now. So just take that with a grain 135 00:07:53,080 --> 00:07:55,720 of salt. His timelines are, of course, 136 00:07:56,080 --> 00:08:00,640 just his timelines. They're not backed in most 137 00:08:00,640 --> 00:08:02,960 reality. He knows what he wants, and he 138 00:08:02,960 --> 00:08:06,640 knows the outcome will be incredible if it works out. 139 00:08:06,960 --> 00:08:10,640 So he's stating that these short timelines, if it happens within 140 00:08:10,640 --> 00:08:13,560 those times, could ease a lot of our pains, right? 141 00:08:14,880 --> 00:08:18,720 So if AI handles service tasks like scheduling, claims 142 00:08:18,720 --> 00:08:22,360 processing, or customer support, response times drop and the 143 00:08:22,360 --> 00:08:25,360 overhead falls. But do you really want to 144 00:08:25,640 --> 00:08:29,960 contact a robot for customer support or if you have an 145 00:08:29,960 --> 00:08:33,360 insurance claim, do you want to talk to a robot or do you want 146 00:08:33,360 --> 00:08:36,679 to talk to a person? It's up to you. 147 00:08:36,880 --> 00:08:39,520 You know, it really depends if the robot can do a better job 148 00:08:39,520 --> 00:08:42,880 than a person. I have no problem talking to a 149 00:08:42,880 --> 00:08:45,640 robot as long as the thing gets done. 150 00:08:46,640 --> 00:08:49,560 Process my claim, man, schedule this for me. 151 00:08:49,680 --> 00:08:52,240 And we already have that. And your phone can do that for 152 00:08:52,240 --> 00:08:54,280 you, scheduling for you. You just talk to it. 153 00:08:54,280 --> 00:08:59,320 You say, hey, you know, make a calendar appointment for XYZ, 154 00:08:59,640 --> 00:09:03,000 can schedule it for you now customer support, whole other 155 00:09:03,000 --> 00:09:05,760 thing now that changes what you can save at the end of the 156 00:09:05,760 --> 00:09:08,040 month. So do we do? 157 00:09:08,760 --> 00:09:12,720 And what do we know right now? We know He also talks about 158 00:09:12,720 --> 00:09:17,680 deflation, Elon Musk, but he's a he talks about deflation all the 159 00:09:17,680 --> 00:09:19,640 time. It's when average prices fall 160 00:09:19,640 --> 00:09:22,600 instead of rise. In his view, supply outpaces 161 00:09:22,600 --> 00:09:26,280 demand in every category that the market resets at lower price 162 00:09:26,280 --> 00:09:28,720 levels while output stays strong. 163 00:09:28,720 --> 00:09:33,720 So they're going to continue to output things, build things, and 164 00:09:33,720 --> 00:09:36,160 then that makes a surplus of money, right? 165 00:09:36,920 --> 00:09:39,720 But people have to spend that money to make more money. 166 00:09:39,880 --> 00:09:42,560 That makes your paycheck stretch a little bit further though. 167 00:09:42,560 --> 00:09:46,320 And it pushes companies to win a design speed and reliability 168 00:09:46,320 --> 00:09:49,200 rather than just getting a bunch more people. 169 00:09:50,400 --> 00:09:52,520 And we've see it, I see it all the time in the tech sector. 170 00:09:54,200 --> 00:09:55,800 It's not robots, it's AI right now. 171 00:09:55,920 --> 00:09:59,120 But AI is a robot, basically, not a physical robot, but it's a 172 00:09:59,120 --> 00:10:02,520 bot doing a project that you could be doing yourself. 173 00:10:02,880 --> 00:10:06,880 Low level web developers, low level app developers, they're 174 00:10:06,880 --> 00:10:12,640 getting replaced by AICTOS, they're getting replaced by AI 175 00:10:12,640 --> 00:10:17,160 eventually. ACEO, maybe, maybe, but that's 176 00:10:17,360 --> 00:10:19,480 top of the food chain. So you can't really get rid of 177 00:10:19,480 --> 00:10:23,520 that right away because then who's going to run the company? 178 00:10:23,560 --> 00:10:25,200 A robot? They don't know what people 179 00:10:25,200 --> 00:10:32,600 want, or do they? So they want to take over all of 180 00:10:32,600 --> 00:10:39,600 the production for humans Now, this is all about energy, right? 181 00:10:39,680 --> 00:10:43,600 He says currency loses relevance if AI and robots do most of the 182 00:10:43,600 --> 00:10:47,400 production because electricity and mass become the real limits. 183 00:10:48,000 --> 00:10:52,120 The power supplies can't grow. AI systems and robots cannot run 184 00:10:52,120 --> 00:10:54,400 at full speed. That puts pressure on 185 00:10:54,400 --> 00:10:57,960 generation, storage and transmission because the value 186 00:10:57,960 --> 00:11:00,280 chain leans on stable, cheap power. 187 00:11:00,840 --> 00:11:03,840 It also raises questions about where factories and data centers 188 00:11:03,840 --> 00:11:07,240 should live and which regions can affordably scale grid 189 00:11:07,240 --> 00:11:11,640 capacity. So basically, productivity cools 190 00:11:11,640 --> 00:11:14,480 the prices down. Robots scale the labor. 191 00:11:14,760 --> 00:11:18,040 So take the people out, the slow people out of there and make 192 00:11:18,040 --> 00:11:20,080 those fast. Robots get the job done. 193 00:11:20,120 --> 00:11:22,000 You know, you know, a better time frame. 194 00:11:22,520 --> 00:11:26,720 And then you need some energy. I'm guessing nuclear, nuclear, 195 00:11:27,120 --> 00:11:32,120 mix of nuclear and solar because those don't run out and I'm 196 00:11:32,120 --> 00:11:36,520 assuming those'll be the best 2 power options for the robot 197 00:11:36,520 --> 00:11:39,200 overlords. Now let's talk about the work 198 00:11:39,200 --> 00:11:42,960 you might still choose to do though, because if you have all 199 00:11:42,960 --> 00:11:48,200 this money extra, you're gonna wanna do something that's fun 200 00:11:48,240 --> 00:11:51,360 and optional. It doesn't mean idle, though. 201 00:11:51,360 --> 00:11:54,120 It means you pick roles for reasons other than survival 202 00:11:54,120 --> 00:11:56,760 income. You don't just, you know, I'm 203 00:11:56,760 --> 00:11:59,720 not knocking anybody who does this because I've done it, but 204 00:11:59,720 --> 00:12:01,920 you don't just flip burgers for a living. 205 00:12:02,840 --> 00:12:04,400 You know, where you're making minimum wage. 206 00:12:04,480 --> 00:12:08,000 You don't just do that. People will still teach, care 207 00:12:08,000 --> 00:12:10,840 for other people, design, manage public spaces, and build new 208 00:12:10,840 --> 00:12:14,200 tools. Because if the robots can build 209 00:12:14,200 --> 00:12:19,200 tools, we need tools for people, not robots, though, right? 210 00:12:19,960 --> 00:12:24,400 And I think it was Gary Vee that said this, but he said that it 211 00:12:24,400 --> 00:12:29,120 was kind of funny because the caring part is really essential 212 00:12:29,440 --> 00:12:33,320 for everybody. If you don't have a friend, you 213 00:12:33,400 --> 00:12:34,800 don't have somebody to walk with. 214 00:12:36,080 --> 00:12:38,480 Start a business where you walk with people. 215 00:12:39,240 --> 00:12:41,160 I think that's an important fact. 216 00:12:41,160 --> 00:12:43,080 Like somebody that's getting older who doesn't have as many 217 00:12:43,080 --> 00:12:44,920 friends anymore because some of their friends passed away. 218 00:12:45,840 --> 00:12:49,200 You make a business for that. You have to care for people. 219 00:12:49,880 --> 00:12:52,040 You have to teach people. You have to teach people how to 220 00:12:52,040 --> 00:12:56,160 be productive members of society and you have to. 221 00:12:56,320 --> 00:12:57,640 You can't have a robot doing that. 222 00:12:57,720 --> 00:13:01,880 It doesn't make any sense. Many roles will move from must 223 00:13:01,880 --> 00:13:04,320 do to kind of a want to do thing. 224 00:13:05,520 --> 00:13:08,080 Do I really want to go to work at that factory anymore? 225 00:13:08,520 --> 00:13:09,760 Not really. I don't like it. 226 00:13:09,920 --> 00:13:15,880 It's damp, it's hot. It's also a lot of work. 227 00:13:16,080 --> 00:13:22,960 It hurts my body over time. And that question is raised 228 00:13:22,960 --> 00:13:26,480 about training for creativity, care, and also how to govern 229 00:13:26,960 --> 00:13:29,560 where human judgement still matters and all of those things. 230 00:13:30,160 --> 00:13:34,080 And the plan asks you to prepare for a portfolio of roles over 231 00:13:34,080 --> 00:13:38,080 lifetime rather than just go from the bottom sweeping floors 232 00:13:38,080 --> 00:13:40,880 at the company all the way up that corporate ladder, grab that 233 00:13:40,880 --> 00:13:44,240 brass ring and become the CEO. That's not going to happen 234 00:13:44,240 --> 00:13:51,440 anymore, according to Elon Musk. So one more term. 235 00:13:52,280 --> 00:13:55,720 So we all stay aligned here. The national debt is the total 236 00:13:55,720 --> 00:13:59,040 memory or the total money that the government owes to 237 00:13:59,040 --> 00:14:00,840 investors, agencies in the public. 238 00:14:01,880 --> 00:14:05,920 And when interest rates are high, interest payments take a 239 00:14:05,920 --> 00:14:10,800 larger share of that budget. If AI driven productivity let's 240 00:14:10,800 --> 00:14:15,880 rates fall and tax bases grow with real output, the budget 241 00:14:15,880 --> 00:14:19,520 math softens up a little bit. That limits the trade-offs 242 00:14:19,520 --> 00:14:21,520 between services, defense and investment. 243 00:14:21,840 --> 00:14:24,960 It does not solve choices on its own, but it gives leaders more 244 00:14:24,960 --> 00:14:29,360 room to move around. So I've been digging into our 245 00:14:29,360 --> 00:14:34,880 stats here at the show, and we got some really good news 246 00:14:34,880 --> 00:14:41,920 yesterday from Spotify. And we did the Spotify Rewind 247 00:14:41,920 --> 00:14:44,360 yesterday to see what happened with our show. 248 00:14:45,960 --> 00:14:52,120 We were #13 on the top charts in the United States for seven 249 00:14:52,120 --> 00:14:55,320 weeks straight. So I want to say thank you for 250 00:14:55,320 --> 00:14:58,080 everybody who's been a part of the show, who has been listening 251 00:14:58,080 --> 00:15:01,400 to the show. I could not do this without you. 252 00:15:02,000 --> 00:15:08,360 And also, the show was in the top 10% of videos on Spotify. 253 00:15:09,000 --> 00:15:13,800 We were 15 top ten. Now we've gotten better over 254 00:15:13,800 --> 00:15:16,600 time because of you, so thank you so much for listening and 255 00:15:16,600 --> 00:15:18,360 watching. I really do appreciate it. 256 00:15:18,360 --> 00:15:21,040 There's going to be more videos in the future because I think 257 00:15:21,040 --> 00:15:23,320 it's important that you get to see who I am. 258 00:15:23,320 --> 00:15:26,680 There's going to be another video tomorrow, so get ready for 259 00:15:26,680 --> 00:15:29,600 that. And I just want to say thanks. 260 00:15:29,720 --> 00:15:32,840 And if you haven't hit the subscribe or follow button since 261 00:15:33,040 --> 00:15:35,040 last time you listened, please do that. 262 00:15:35,040 --> 00:15:36,640 It helps out the show tremendously. 263 00:15:36,640 --> 00:15:40,960 So thank you for that. Now let's bring Optimus back 264 00:15:40,960 --> 00:15:43,840 into the frame here, because it is the clearest symbol of the 265 00:15:43,840 --> 00:15:46,400 labor shift. If a human sized robot can stack 266 00:15:46,400 --> 00:15:49,240 pellets, move parts, clean floors, and handle delicate 267 00:15:49,240 --> 00:15:53,200 assembly with safe force, control companies will rewrite 268 00:15:53,200 --> 00:15:55,040 process maps. It's going to take a while 269 00:15:55,040 --> 00:15:56,280 though. Companies aren't going to just 270 00:15:56,280 --> 00:15:59,040 jump in here. And that'll lower service and 271 00:15:59,040 --> 00:16:01,560 manufacturing costs. And it changes with bottlenecks. 272 00:16:02,080 --> 00:16:06,240 And you would see businesses optimized for uptime, data 273 00:16:06,240 --> 00:16:09,880 quality, and energy contracts as much as they do for headcount. 274 00:16:10,640 --> 00:16:13,960 OK, so keep going with me here. There's a hard problem inside 275 00:16:13,960 --> 00:16:14,800 this. Good news, though. 276 00:16:14,800 --> 00:16:18,760 If the adoption curve is uneven, some jobs will just go away 277 00:16:18,840 --> 00:16:21,320 before new roles arrive for those people. 278 00:16:21,680 --> 00:16:25,040 That makes inequality management an early decision for leaders, 279 00:16:25,640 --> 00:16:28,560 not a late one. That makes inequality management 280 00:16:28,560 --> 00:16:32,360 an early decision for leaders, not a late one. 281 00:16:32,360 --> 00:16:37,640 Remember that it argues for experiments with income, floors, 282 00:16:38,080 --> 00:16:41,720 worker equity, and portable benefits that travel with you. 283 00:16:42,080 --> 00:16:45,200 That opens policy work at the city and state level that can 284 00:16:45,200 --> 00:16:50,360 scale if it proves out. So adoption speed shapes 285 00:16:50,360 --> 00:16:52,840 fairness long before abundance reaches everyone. 286 00:16:53,120 --> 00:16:54,560 This isn't going to happen all at once. 287 00:16:55,160 --> 00:16:58,400 They're not going to drop 1,000,000 optimist robots and 288 00:16:58,400 --> 00:17:00,920 then they took over everybody's jobs and everybody gets rich. 289 00:17:01,160 --> 00:17:02,360 It's not going to happen like that. 290 00:17:02,560 --> 00:17:06,839 It's going to happen in chunks and the tech sector wiped out 291 00:17:06,880 --> 00:17:11,000 almost. The tech sector is a whole. 292 00:17:11,040 --> 00:17:16,200 Probably half of the developers that I know have lost their 293 00:17:16,200 --> 00:17:18,400 jobs. And I know a lot of developers, 294 00:17:18,720 --> 00:17:21,240 they've all lost their jobs because of this, because of AI 295 00:17:21,640 --> 00:17:23,040 and robots are going to be the same way. 296 00:17:23,800 --> 00:17:26,400 They're going to do the same tasks that people can do. 297 00:17:26,880 --> 00:17:29,880 And some of these people you got to start now to plan for the 298 00:17:29,880 --> 00:17:31,760 future. If you think a robot could do 299 00:17:31,760 --> 00:17:35,120 your job, and if you don't think a robot can do your job because 300 00:17:35,120 --> 00:17:39,560 you have a certain skill set, well, think again. 301 00:17:40,080 --> 00:17:41,240 I just got to say that. Think again. 302 00:17:41,240 --> 00:17:44,400 There's a possibility they'll just wipe you out. 303 00:17:45,040 --> 00:17:49,680 And not doom and gloom here, but learn something new if you can 304 00:17:49,720 --> 00:17:52,880 start a new trajectory, if you think a robot could do even part 305 00:17:52,880 --> 00:17:56,200 of your job, because if you can do part of your job, eventually 306 00:17:56,200 --> 00:17:59,240 it'll be able to do your whole job and then you're done. 307 00:18:00,440 --> 00:18:04,520 So here's how I would translate the three-year claim into things 308 00:18:04,520 --> 00:18:07,480 you can see. You would see inventories 309 00:18:07,480 --> 00:18:10,320 turning faster because robots restock overnight. 310 00:18:11,640 --> 00:18:16,760 People do night stocking too. But people don't build things 311 00:18:16,760 --> 00:18:20,400 overnight all the time. 24 shifts, 24/7, they don't do 312 00:18:20,400 --> 00:18:23,600 that. When a a robot is done with 313 00:18:23,600 --> 00:18:26,200 their shift, they go recharge. Another robot comes and takes 314 00:18:26,200 --> 00:18:28,680 their place and continues where they left off. 315 00:18:29,080 --> 00:18:31,440 You going to see shipping windows compressed because 316 00:18:31,440 --> 00:18:34,800 automated hubs waste less time in handoffs. 317 00:18:35,280 --> 00:18:38,320 You would see customer service queues shorten as AI handles 318 00:18:38,320 --> 00:18:40,920 triage and frees people for edge cases. 319 00:18:40,920 --> 00:18:45,240 So the really important stuff goes the people, and we've all 320 00:18:45,240 --> 00:18:47,360 seen it. When you call customer support, 321 00:18:47,360 --> 00:18:52,720 you have to go through that list of things, you know, if, if this 322 00:18:53,240 --> 00:18:56,320 press 1, if that press 2, we've all seen it. 323 00:18:56,360 --> 00:19:00,680 It's already happening, but it'll be more conversational in 324 00:19:00,680 --> 00:19:03,800 the future. And so that'll push companies 325 00:19:03,960 --> 00:19:08,040 into price wars in an improved service quality where price 326 00:19:08,040 --> 00:19:12,840 floors exist. So hopefully that helps your 327 00:19:12,840 --> 00:19:15,160 budget a little bit. I'm not sure if that's going to 328 00:19:15,160 --> 00:19:17,640 happen. So also want to give you a 329 00:19:17,640 --> 00:19:20,320 simple checker for this forecasts. 330 00:19:20,840 --> 00:19:23,880 Within three years, you should see unit cost fall in logistics, 331 00:19:23,880 --> 00:19:27,800 retail, basic services, and some manufacturing, while price 332 00:19:27,800 --> 00:19:31,280 indexes cool down a little bit. And then 10 years from now, you 333 00:19:31,280 --> 00:19:33,840 should see robot density climb beyond factories into 334 00:19:33,840 --> 00:19:36,200 warehouses, hospitals, and commercial areas. 335 00:19:36,720 --> 00:19:40,600 Within 20 years, you should see mainstream programs that route 336 00:19:40,600 --> 00:19:43,400 abundance into income floors or service guarantees. 337 00:19:43,760 --> 00:19:47,560 A set of mile markers lets you track progress without jargon. 338 00:19:48,280 --> 00:19:52,120 So what do we know right now? We know Elon stitches all of 339 00:19:52,120 --> 00:19:55,880 this to a single through line. AI writes the code, schedules 340 00:19:55,880 --> 00:19:58,880 workflows, and guides robots that move parts and care for 341 00:19:58,880 --> 00:20:01,360 spaces. The combined system shorten 342 00:20:01,360 --> 00:20:04,600 cycle times and lowers cost, which reshapes budgets and 343 00:20:04,600 --> 00:20:08,360 homes. And in the military and in 344 00:20:08,360 --> 00:20:12,760 Congress, also demands bigger, cleaner power systems and 345 00:20:12,760 --> 00:20:15,800 smarter grids. That opens choices on nuclear, 346 00:20:15,800 --> 00:20:18,640 renewables and transmission that cannot wait. 347 00:20:19,400 --> 00:20:24,000 So the forecast works only if reliable power shows up at 348 00:20:24,000 --> 00:20:26,400 scale. And if they can produce a 349 00:20:26,400 --> 00:20:30,560 billion optimist robots, it's going to be it's going to be a 350 00:20:30,560 --> 00:20:34,040 hard path. You know, Musk has claimed that 351 00:20:34,040 --> 00:20:38,040 AI robots can make supply outpace inflation within about 352 00:20:38,040 --> 00:20:41,880 three years. He thinks that he can build a 353 00:20:41,880 --> 00:20:45,240 robot within three years that will replace most people. 354 00:20:46,160 --> 00:20:48,160 And I want you to think about that for a moment. 355 00:20:49,680 --> 00:20:51,360 He thinks a robot can replace you. 356 00:20:52,640 --> 00:20:55,480 Is this a person that's doing this for their own good? 357 00:20:55,720 --> 00:20:57,880 Or is he doing this for your good? 358 00:20:57,960 --> 00:21:01,400 Or is he doing it because he knows that if he sells a billion 359 00:21:01,400 --> 00:21:07,560 robots, he's going to have more money, more power, and just like 360 00:21:07,560 --> 00:21:10,160 he does with Starlink sometimes. And I have to be the devil's 361 00:21:10,160 --> 00:21:13,360 advocate here because I've been covering Elon Musk for six years 362 00:21:13,360 --> 00:21:14,960 now, and I know how this guy works. 363 00:21:15,720 --> 00:21:18,640 I'm an expert at this guy. He can turn off Starlink 364 00:21:18,640 --> 00:21:23,400 wherever he wants to. He did it for Russia and 365 00:21:23,400 --> 00:21:26,240 Ukraine. He did it during a time that 366 00:21:26,240 --> 00:21:30,720 Russia was attacking Ukraine. The system went down, said he 367 00:21:30,720 --> 00:21:36,360 didn't do it, but all sources point to Elon and his company 368 00:21:36,360 --> 00:21:38,720 for shutting that down. Can't just shut it down like 369 00:21:39,200 --> 00:21:41,520 like no, like it just shuts down. 370 00:21:41,520 --> 00:21:45,560 No, it doesn't happen like that. So those things happen. 371 00:21:45,800 --> 00:21:49,520 Elon has complete control over the robot army here that does 372 00:21:49,520 --> 00:21:52,760 all the work. And if he has complete control 373 00:21:52,760 --> 00:21:54,520 over that, he has those government contracts. 374 00:21:54,800 --> 00:21:56,680 Government contracts make the most money. 375 00:21:57,560 --> 00:22:02,040 And he's going to be working on other AI type contracts with 376 00:22:02,040 --> 00:22:05,920 Grok and XAI. So that AI is going to be in his 377 00:22:05,920 --> 00:22:10,440 cars, in his robots, in your homes all the time. 378 00:22:11,080 --> 00:22:13,840 And if he wants to, if you forget to pay your subscription, 379 00:22:13,920 --> 00:22:16,240 that robot walks out the door. You never get it back. 380 00:22:17,920 --> 00:22:22,640 Now for companies, if a robot can replace 2 people and it's 381 00:22:22,640 --> 00:22:27,960 $20,000, that is a pretty good trade off. 382 00:22:28,320 --> 00:22:34,240 If you can justify sending somebody home because you don't 383 00:22:34,240 --> 00:22:39,880 want to pay them, that's something that is a moral 384 00:22:39,880 --> 00:22:43,760 dilemma that's going to be happening when robots start 385 00:22:44,120 --> 00:22:47,840 hitting the marketplace. Do you want to send somebody 386 00:22:47,840 --> 00:22:49,960 home? They don't have a paycheck. 387 00:22:49,960 --> 00:22:52,800 They can't pay for the rent, They can't pay for their child's 388 00:22:52,800 --> 00:22:57,560 food because you want more profits. 389 00:22:57,920 --> 00:23:00,240 You got to take care of yourself and your company. 390 00:23:01,120 --> 00:23:06,560 Totally understandable, but you're also putting this person 391 00:23:06,560 --> 00:23:11,160 in jeopardy because even though they were loyal to you for three 392 00:23:11,160 --> 00:23:15,160 or four years, you find they're easily replaceable by a robot. 393 00:23:16,360 --> 00:23:19,320 Is that the life that we want to be part of? 394 00:23:20,160 --> 00:23:22,520 That's another thing. Will there be a revolt? 395 00:23:23,440 --> 00:23:26,720 Let me know in the comments of your podcast platform what you 396 00:23:26,720 --> 00:23:29,520 think about all this, because it's a wild thing. 397 00:23:30,680 --> 00:23:32,000 All right, thanks so much for listening. 398 00:23:32,000 --> 00:23:35,560 Everybody. Take care, support, if you could 399 00:23:35,560 --> 00:23:38,280 take a second and hit the subscribe or the follow button 400 00:23:38,280 --> 00:23:41,200 on whatever podcast platform that you're listening on right 401 00:23:41,200 --> 00:23:43,880 now, I greatly appreciate it. It helps out the show 402 00:23:43,880 --> 00:23:46,520 tremendously and you'll never miss an episode. 403 00:23:46,720 --> 00:23:50,080 And each episode is about 10 minutes or less to get you 404 00:23:50,080 --> 00:23:52,840 caught up quickly. And please, if you want to 405 00:23:52,840 --> 00:23:58,320 support the show even more, go to patreon.com/stage Zero. 406 00:23:58,800 --> 00:24:01,000 And please take care of yourselves and each other, and 407 00:24:01,000 --> 00:24:01,920 I'll see you tomorrow.