1 00:00:01,920 --> 00:00:05,320 Hey everybody, welcome back to the Elon Musk Podcast. 2 00:00:05,400 --> 00:00:08,720 This is a show where we discuss the critical crossroads that 3 00:00:08,720 --> 00:00:13,560 shape SpaceX, Tesla X, The Boring Company, and Neurolink. 4 00:00:13,880 --> 00:00:22,680 I'm your host, Will Walden. Elon Musk has ordered Starlink 5 00:00:22,680 --> 00:00:27,760 coverage cut over parts of Ukraine and this is back in late 6 00:00:27,760 --> 00:00:30,840 September of 2022. And the order disrupted 7 00:00:30,840 --> 00:00:34,320 Ukrainian counter offensive and damaged Kiev's trust in a 8 00:00:34,320 --> 00:00:37,600 service that had supported their military since the start of this 9 00:00:37,600 --> 00:00:40,200 invasion. The instruction targeted areas 10 00:00:40,200 --> 00:00:44,080 and included kerosene, which sits north of the Black Sea and 11 00:00:44,080 --> 00:00:47,160 served as a strategic focus for Ukrainian forces. 12 00:00:47,480 --> 00:00:50,560 The action marked the first known shutdown of Starlink over 13 00:00:50,560 --> 00:00:52,440 an active battlefield in the war. 14 00:00:53,120 --> 00:00:56,040 Now, Reuters documented the order and its impact through 15 00:00:56,040 --> 00:00:58,360 interviews with people who carried it out and with 16 00:00:58,360 --> 00:01:00,720 Ukrainian personnel who experienced the outage. 17 00:01:01,360 --> 00:01:04,400 Now, who gets to decide whether a private network that carries 18 00:01:04,400 --> 00:01:08,920 battlefield communications stays on during a war with an Elon 19 00:01:08,920 --> 00:01:12,480 Musk? Now, one directive inside a 20 00:01:12,480 --> 00:01:16,520 company changed the course of a specific operation and exposed 21 00:01:16,520 --> 00:01:21,600 how much military communications depend on Elon Musk, the private 22 00:01:21,600 --> 00:01:26,040 owner of SpaceX. Now we're going to set off a 23 00:01:26,040 --> 00:01:28,880 chain of responses inside Ukraine, Washington and SpaceX 24 00:01:28,880 --> 00:01:33,120 that reveal A fragile arrangement around access to 25 00:01:33,120 --> 00:01:36,760 Starlink in conflict zones. In this episode, must deliver 26 00:01:36,760 --> 00:01:39,400 the order through a senior engineer at SpaceX who ran 27 00:01:39,400 --> 00:01:41,520 Starlink operations in California. 28 00:01:41,800 --> 00:01:45,000 He told the engineer to cut coverage in set areas that 29 00:01:45,000 --> 00:01:49,240 included kerosene and parts of Donetsk, and this is where 30 00:01:49,360 --> 00:01:53,680 Ukraine sought to advance to. Staff turned off at least 100 31 00:01:53,680 --> 00:01:57,320 terminals and an internal coverage map showed hexagon 32 00:01:57,320 --> 00:02:00,920 shaped cells going dark. Team members described an abrupt 33 00:02:00,920 --> 00:02:03,520 switch off that followed a simple instruction. 34 00:02:03,760 --> 00:02:08,639 We have to do this now, Michael Nichols, the star LINK engineer, 35 00:02:08,919 --> 00:02:11,120 told colleagues upon receiving the order. 36 00:02:11,440 --> 00:02:14,680 Multiple people with direct knowledge confirmed that the 37 00:02:14,680 --> 00:02:18,360 team complied with this order. Frontline units saw 38 00:02:18,440 --> 00:02:20,960 communications blackout as the cut took hold. 39 00:02:21,240 --> 00:02:24,600 Soldiers lost connections, aerial drones that surveilled 40 00:02:24,600 --> 00:02:28,520 Russian forces went dark, and long range artillery units lost 41 00:02:28,520 --> 00:02:33,280 the data they used to aim. Ukrainian officers who pushed to 42 00:02:33,320 --> 00:02:36,280 encircle a Russian position could not complete this 43 00:02:36,280 --> 00:02:39,440 maneuver. The encirclement stalled 44 00:02:39,520 --> 00:02:41,640 entirely. It failed. 45 00:02:42,080 --> 00:02:46,560 Ukrainian forces later reclaimed the city of Karason, along with 46 00:02:46,560 --> 00:02:50,080 nearby territories without the help of Starlink. 47 00:02:50,600 --> 00:02:53,880 People inside SpaceX who watched the cut said the decision 48 00:02:53,880 --> 00:02:57,520 shocked some of their employees. They also said the outage helped 49 00:02:57,520 --> 00:02:59,400 shape where the front lines settled. 50 00:02:59,720 --> 00:03:03,480 During the phase of fighting. They saw a private order create 51 00:03:03,480 --> 00:03:06,280 operational effects that matched military decisions. 52 00:03:06,960 --> 00:03:09,880 Public statements from Musk did not match the account, though he 53 00:03:09,880 --> 00:03:14,040 wrote on X in March. We would never do such a thing. 54 00:03:14,680 --> 00:03:16,600 Who do you believe? Let me know in the comments. 55 00:03:17,200 --> 00:03:20,720 Musk and Nichols did not respond to requests from us or from 56 00:03:20,720 --> 00:03:22,760 Reuters or from any other news outlet. 57 00:03:23,600 --> 00:03:27,080 A SpaceX spokesperson called the reporting inaccurate in an 58 00:03:27,080 --> 00:03:30,280 e-mail and pointed to a private statement on X. 59 00:03:30,840 --> 00:03:33,320 They said Sterling is fully committed to providing service 60 00:03:33,320 --> 00:03:36,480 to Ukraine is a blanket statement. 61 00:03:36,960 --> 00:03:40,080 The company did not identify specific errors and did not 62 00:03:40,080 --> 00:03:43,560 answer answer detailed questions about the outage or about 63 00:03:43,560 --> 00:03:49,080 Starlink's wartime use. The office President Vladimir 64 00:03:49,080 --> 00:03:53,040 Zelinsky and the minister of defense did not respond to 65 00:03:53,040 --> 00:03:56,160 questions about this either. Starlink continues to provide 66 00:03:56,160 --> 00:03:59,720 service in Ukraine and the military keeps using it for some 67 00:03:59,720 --> 00:04:02,600 communications. But Zelensky expressed gratitude 68 00:04:02,600 --> 00:04:05,400 to Musk for Starlink earlier this year in public remarks. 69 00:04:06,240 --> 00:04:09,400 Now, three people that were familiar with Musk's decision 70 00:04:09,400 --> 00:04:13,040 said he acted out of concern that the Ukrainian advance could 71 00:04:13,040 --> 00:04:17,880 trigger nuclear retaliation from Moscow. 72 00:04:18,600 --> 00:04:22,000 The outage began around September 30th, 2022, a few days 73 00:04:22,000 --> 00:04:26,760 after after Putin warned that Russia could use nuclear weapons 74 00:04:26,880 --> 00:04:29,200 if its territorial integrity were threatened. 75 00:04:30,200 --> 00:04:33,440 Officials in Kiev in Washington, who helped secure Starlink 76 00:04:33,440 --> 00:04:38,080 access for Ukraine after the February 22 invasion, reacted 77 00:04:38,080 --> 00:04:40,240 with alarm when they learned of the blackout. 78 00:04:41,120 --> 00:04:44,560 The exact timing of the order remains unclear in the 79 00:04:44,560 --> 00:04:47,960 reporting, though Starlink has become central to Ukraine's 80 00:04:47,960 --> 00:04:51,520 battlefield communications. Troops pilot drones over the 81 00:04:51,520 --> 00:04:55,560 network, units move targeted data access with it, and 82 00:04:55,560 --> 00:04:58,040 commanders coordinate frontline operations through its 83 00:04:58,040 --> 00:05:01,120 terminals. Ukraine has more than 50,000 84 00:05:01,120 --> 00:05:04,560 Starling terminals in use, and Poland supplied about half of 85 00:05:04,560 --> 00:05:07,720 them. Now this is alarming, but SpaceX 86 00:05:07,720 --> 00:05:11,040 can turn on and off service through geofencing that maps 87 00:05:11,040 --> 00:05:15,680 coverage into cells that appear as hexagons and an internal 88 00:05:16,360 --> 00:05:21,400 display. Think of like Civilization if 89 00:05:21,400 --> 00:05:25,480 you've ever played that game. Very similar to that, and 90 00:05:25,640 --> 00:05:28,920 engineers can deactivate groups of terminals in those cells with 91 00:05:28,920 --> 00:05:31,360 centralized commands. They can just turn anything off 92 00:05:31,360 --> 00:05:34,000 they want to. No international process 93 00:05:34,000 --> 00:05:36,520 currently sets rules for how a private satellite Internet 94 00:05:36,520 --> 00:05:39,640 provider manages access during a conflict. 95 00:05:40,800 --> 00:05:42,800 They don't have to go through the military, they don't have to 96 00:05:42,800 --> 00:05:45,120 go through Zelensky, they don't have to go through any 97 00:05:45,120 --> 00:05:48,080 governments. They can just shut it off. 98 00:05:48,640 --> 00:05:51,040 Starlink now operates the world's world's largest 99 00:05:51,040 --> 00:05:54,520 satellite network, with more than 7900 spacecraft in orbit. 100 00:05:54,920 --> 00:05:58,920 The service is on track to generate nearly $10 billion in 101 00:05:58,920 --> 00:06:02,880 revenue this year, which would make up about 60% of Spacex's 102 00:06:02,880 --> 00:06:06,160 income. Musk retains private control 103 00:06:06,160 --> 00:06:08,400 over the system, too. He can do whatever he wants. 104 00:06:08,720 --> 00:06:11,600 Musk has described Starlink as essential to Ukraine's defense. 105 00:06:12,160 --> 00:06:14,840 He said. My Starlink system is the 106 00:06:14,840 --> 00:06:18,280 backbone of the Ukrainian army. Their entire frontline would 107 00:06:18,280 --> 00:06:21,480 collapse if it turned it off. The remark captures the leverage 108 00:06:21,760 --> 00:06:23,560 that comes with control over the service. 109 00:06:24,160 --> 00:06:28,200 With great power comes great responsibility for Elon. 110 00:06:28,520 --> 00:06:31,280 Governments that rely on commercial networks in war will 111 00:06:31,280 --> 00:06:35,200 face recurring questions about authority, contracts and 112 00:06:35,200 --> 00:06:38,640 continuity. Military planners can define 113 00:06:38,640 --> 00:06:41,360 service boundaries and escalation triggers and written 114 00:06:41,360 --> 00:06:44,960 agreements, but private owners still execute the switches that 115 00:06:44,960 --> 00:06:49,680 route data during combat. The 2022 blackout showed how one 116 00:06:49,680 --> 00:06:54,400 internal instruction can ripple through a battle plan and also 117 00:06:54,400 --> 00:06:59,080 change the world's fate. Possibly butterfly effect. 118 00:06:59,080 --> 00:07:01,880 Think about that. When a single network carries 119 00:07:01,880 --> 00:07:05,240 command control and targeting links, it's dangerous. 120 00:07:06,120 --> 00:07:09,480 And Musk ordered that shutdown over parts of Ukraine during a 121 00:07:09,480 --> 00:07:14,760 key push in September of 2022. Ukraine lost units and 122 00:07:14,760 --> 00:07:19,080 communications, and they also lost the planned encirclement 123 00:07:19,880 --> 00:07:23,920 and it failed because of this. Let me know in the comments 124 00:07:23,920 --> 00:07:26,720 which think, do you think Eli did the right thing or do you 125 00:07:26,720 --> 00:07:30,080 think he was doing it because he was scared? 126 00:07:30,080 --> 00:07:32,440 Do you think he was a reactionary or do you think he 127 00:07:32,440 --> 00:07:36,920 had this all planned out and he thinks that, you know, Putin 128 00:07:37,280 --> 00:07:42,160 would have caused a nuclear war if Ukraine moved forward? 129 00:07:43,480 --> 00:07:45,800 Let me know. Hey, thank you so much for 130 00:07:45,800 --> 00:07:48,000 listening today. I really do appreciate your 131 00:07:48,000 --> 00:07:49,560 support. If you could take a second and 132 00:07:49,560 --> 00:07:52,520 hit this subscribe or the follow button on whatever podcast 133 00:07:52,520 --> 00:07:55,480 platform that you're listening on right now, I greatly 134 00:07:55,480 --> 00:07:57,160 appreciate it. It helps out the show 135 00:07:57,160 --> 00:07:59,800 tremendously and you'll never miss an episode. 136 00:08:00,000 --> 00:08:03,360 And each episode is about 10 minutes or less to get you 137 00:08:03,360 --> 00:08:06,120 caught up quickly. And please, if you want to 138 00:08:06,120 --> 00:08:11,600 support the show even more, go to Atreoncom Stage Zero. 139 00:08:12,080 --> 00:08:13,880 And please take care of yourselves and each other. 140 00:08:14,120 --> 00:08:15,200 And I'll see you tomorrow.