So those of you who have been following Tesla closely
understand like you get it, you know, and so, so like important
thing is you get it. I mean, it's so the yeah, where,
where things are going. I think it's just going to be
absolutely mind blowing. You know, we're, we're obviously
making great progress in solving the sustainable energy problem,
you know, with electric vehicles, with stationary
storage, with solar. And and then I think in terms of
the the value of the company autonomy is just such a mind
blowing thing. That's like I said, you guys
understand, but I think most of the world does not yet
understand. So, and you know, and talking to
a lot of those sort of big institutional investors when
they're often in like New York and they don't drive cars.
So I'll be like, have you driven our car?
Have you, have you tried self driving, you know, the, the
version 12.3 and they're like, oh, no, OK, well, you should try
it. That would be a good thing to
do. And, and if you just plot the
points on the curve of how well autonomy is progressing and just
believe the curve, it's headed towards unsupervised full self
driving very quickly at an exponential pace.
If you just, if you just, yeah, it's, it's, I mean, yeah.
So it's, it's, it's, it's really as simple as that.
And in fact, I'd, I'd invite you to just do it personally, just
say, OK, with each release, how many miles do you drive before
you have to intervene? It's, it's, it's like literally
that, that simple. And with each release you'll see
it, there's a, there's a big improvement, big improvement.
And it looks like an exponential.
So, and it's very clear that that will actually go to the
point where it is actually far safer than a person driving the
car. So, and, and I have some insight
into, you know, the the next releases because we, we've,
we've got basically for every release that's on the road, we,
we kind of see what the next generation releases and a little
bit about the release after that.
So we have some insight into where it's going and it's really
amazing. No question whatsoever.
That will far exceed human safety.
Yeah, no question. So, and I think, you know, I
have, I have mentioned this bit, but like sometimes it's, it's
like helpful to sort of reiterate and connect some of
the dots because sometimes people wonder, well, how do you
go from this big fleet to actually monetizing the fleet in
an autonomous situation? And it's, it's actually a
combination of like it's like Airbnb and Uber to some degree.
So like there'll be some cars that Tesla owns itself.
It's kind of like an Uber fashion, But then for the fleet
that is owned by our customers, it will be like an Airbnb thing.
You can add or subtract your car to the fleet whenever you want.
So you can say like, I'm going away for a week at just one tap
on your Tesla app, your car gets added to the fleet and it just
makes money for you while you're gone.
Yeah. So you can say you, you can add
it to the fleet for a few hours, for a few days, for a few weeks,
whenever you want it back and say come back and Carl will come
right back. And I'm I'm highly confident
that it will far exceed the value of like the revenue made
by the the owner of the car will far exceed the actual monthly
payment. And then Tesla will obviously
take a rough share on that, but most of the money will go to the
the owner of the car and it's this is actually going to work.
This is what will happen. So you, I mean, I'd mark my
words, this is this is simply a matter of time.
Now, admittedly, I'm a little optimistic sometimes, you know,
I'm, I, you know, so I don't have complete lack of
self-awareness, but if I wasn't optimistic, this wouldn't exist.
This factory wouldn't exist, you know, So, so you know, that's
what my brother, who's awesome, he's here got just got
reelected. No, sorry.
Those things. So it's like a little anecdote,
like when we were kids in school, my, my brother would
tell me the the wrong time for the bus so that I wouldn't miss
the bus. And then I'd be upset with him.
Like, why'd you tell me the bus was going to come earlier than
it was? And, and, and he's like, well,
because otherwise you'd be late for the bus.
This is an actual thing that would happen.
So I'm, I, I guess I've been sort of pathologically
optimistic from, you know, from birth, but, but that's the
reason we're this is all the stuff is happening anyway.
It's like I got to be somewhat pathologically optimistic, but I
do deliver in the end. That's the important thing.
So yeah, and it's, it's really just going to be something else.
I mentioned this before, but like the for Arkhanvest, I'd
recommend reading the Arkhanvest analysis That's the most
accurate there may be, you know, more accurate ones, but the most
accurate sort of analysis of the potential of autonomy, the most
accurate that I'm that I'm aware of is is Kathy Woods Arkhanvest.
So, and if I recall correctly, they they predicted somewhere
over a $5 trillion valuation for Tesla just based on vehicle
autonomy, not counting optimists.
Yeah, yeah, I agree with that. So, so I think, I think, I think
just based on vehicle autonomy, we can, we can 10X110X the value
of the company. I believe that's what will
happen. Yeah, I know.
It's just what what do you know? It's it's it's 4:20 PM.
Just noticed that. So you know, so so I think
that's actually, I think that's that's pretty accurate.
But there's there's it actually gets way crazier when you think
about the the optimist robot, which is really a humanoid robot
that is intended to, you know, be able to do anything you want
it to do to be, you know, it's, you know, your companion.
It can be at your house, it can sort of babysit your kids.
It could teach them be a teacher.
It it, you know, it can do factory stuff.
Like I think that the ultimate ratio of say, how many super
useful humanoid helper droids do you want?
Like who doesn't want to see 3PO, you know, you know, but
AC3PO plus R2D2 plus, you know, plus plus it would be pretty
awesome. I think.
I think everyone in the world is going to want one, like
literally everyone. And, and then there'll be
obviously robots in industry making stuff.
And so I mean, I, I think the ratio of humanoid robots to
humans will probably be at least 2 to one, something like that.
One to one for sure. So which means like somewhere on
the order of 10 billion humanoid robots, maybe maybe 20 or 30.
And so then it's like, OK, well, let's say, you know, you kind of
make, let's say the build rate is, I think the build rate will
be probably something ultimately like a billion a year humanoid
robots like actually, and if Tesla just has a 10% share of
that and it might be a lot more than 10%.
And there's, you know, we make like 100 million optimist units
a year. I just, I mean, for reference,
the auto industry is roughly 100 million vehicles per year.
So that, you know, sort of similar ballpark at least within
an order of magnitude. And I, I, I think we could make
one for a cost of maybe at, at, at really high scale of about
$10,000. It's, it's, it's smaller, it'd
be less expensive than a car. So, and I think if you sold it
for sell it for $20,000 or something, this is at large
scale volume, Tesla would basically make about a trillion
dollars of profit a year from that.
So yeah, if the price earnings multiple is say on a 20 or 25
something like that, that would mean a $20 trillion market cap
from Optimus alone and and probably 5 to 10 from autonomous
vehicles. So like, I think it's actually
conceivable it's when within the realm of possibility for Tesla
to achieve evaluation 10 times that of the most valuable
company today. So, so when I say this is like
we're starting a new book, I mean, it's going to be the best
book. Next level, next, next, next,
next level. Now we need to make sure these
robots are nice to us. And you know, that's very
important. So, so anyway, that's so with
that, let me get into the presentation.
Blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah.
Oh man, I, I think it might be worth us just putting a word
limit on future shareholder Tesla proposals.
It's like, it's like, like you can't have like a novel length,
you know, it's correct, but like you can't have a whole novel as
a, as a proposal. So, you know, as you can see,
our impact is accelerating, You know, we're, we're starting to
make a real noticeable bent in COVID emissions.
So we're, we're really, you know, making a lot of progress
towards achieving our goal of sustainability.
And one of the, the, the effects of autonomy is actually is going
to be an even greater effect on carbon emissions.
Because I, I, I suspect that we'll go from passenger cars
having about 10 hours of usage per week, about an hour and a
half per day to probably a third of the hours in the week, maybe
5055 hours, which means the same car will, will be used five
times more often. So, so you need a certain amount
of resources to make the car, but it'll have five times the
usage. In my opinion, I think that's
quite likely, which will be an even more dramatic impact on
carbon emissions. So, you know, we, we're, we care
a lot about sustainable manufacturing.
Our, our factories are beautiful.
You walk around the factory, it's, it's, it's actually, you
know, contrary to these, like, what do you mean the press?
It's like a good vibe in the factory.
Like people are smiling and happy.
It's like, it's nice. So, so yeah.
So I mean, we do care. We actually do care a lot.
It tells us about doing the right thing.
And we, you know, we're not going to be perfect, but we do
care a lot about doing the right thing.
So our vehicles are water efficient, energy efficient.
You know, we try whenever possible to use renewables for
powering the factory and you know, do do our best to do the
right thing. Our batteries are lasting a lot
longer. I got too many things, man.
Anyway, the batteries that last lasting a lot longer, which is,
which is good safety is is is good in the factory.
We're improving the affordability of BBS, you know,
model wise comparable to BMW X3, but it's actual cost of
ownership on a monthly basis is much lower.
We were number one in EVs globally last year.
So, yeah, so yeah, so let's see and grass the Tesla team on
making 6,000,000 vehicles all time.
So, so that I mean the Tesla fleet is really becoming very
substantial. I mean it's going to be 7
million vehicles by the end of this year, over 7 million
vehicles. So we had, and our, our factory
in Fremont is currently the highest volume order order
factory in North America. So, and, and we broke the prior
production record from when it was new me.
So it's, it's actually pretty wild that there's a, we have a
giant car factory in the San Francisco Bay Area.
It's, it's like it's not exactly the cheapest place to have a car
factory. It's like that and the Swiss
Alps or something, you know, but, but we, we still managed to
make, you know, great cars at high volume.
And that's a testament to the, the great team we've got in
Fremont. So Congrats to the Fremont team.
And yeah, a lot of people were saying the cyber truck is like
fake. It's never going to come out,
you know, and now we're shipping a lot of cyber trucks.
We we had a, a weekly record of 1300.
So and you know, I think that with a cyber truck, it really is
something special. Like if you'll sometimes have
like different opinions on the cyber truck.
But if you really want to know if there's a, if something is,
is cool, if it's, if it's a great product, like show it to a
kid, OK, like no filter. OK, the kids got like no filter,
like a 5 year old, 6 year old, something like that and or even
3 year old and say, which car do you like Cybertruck?
So it's like that's how you know, and it's it's finally
something that it it just looks like the future.
It's and it drives so well. It's it, you know, it's
comfortable. It's it's just a fantastic
product. I think it's our I think it's
our best product and it's a lot of innovation.
It's got a 48 Volt low voltage system finally, instead of 12
volts, 800 Volt drivetrain, the world's biggest castings.
You know, it's bulletproof, all, all the cool things can, you
know, out pull AF350 diesel, which is a very impressive truck
and it can, you know, it, it can do a quarter mile faster than a
Porsche 9/11 while towing a Porsche 9/11.
So that's insane. So yeah.
And we think if you think about it like how how often do
companies make products that move your heart that are really
special, It's it's so rare. And I think this is one of them.
So yeah. And we launched the upgraded 3,
which is actually a fantastic car.
I recommend trying it out. It's it's really a great car and
it's only $216 after a gas savings like total cost of
ownership. It's basically 200 and something
dollars when compared to a gasoline car.
Some like gasoline car. So it's it's it's really a great
deal and a fun car. And the performance multi
performance is well, it's it's like, you know, fast and a
Porsche 9/11 it's just a great, great car.
So yeah, So yeah, yeah. And of course model Model Y
became the best selling vehicle globally.
And this this is something that we predicted.
So, you know, like I said in like 2022, it would Model Y
would be the biggest the car in the world by dollar volume
sales. And at 2023 it will be the
biggest in unit volume. And it was and again this year
it will be the best selling car on earth.
So yeah. And we obviously we've got the
Tesla Semi. You know, we're we're in low
volume production of the Tesla Semi.
And just last week, I've I approved the plans for volume
production of the Tesla Semi. So we're we're going to make a
lot of semi trucks. So we're we're going to start
off with, yeah, it's, it's, it's something I think it'll actually
move the needle financially. It's not like it's not a small,
small thing. And the thing about like
commercial vehicles is that. Companies that use them are
super objective. It's not like it's actually, I
mean, obviously we're going to make it have cool style and be
an awesome car. But for commercial vehicles, the
companies that make the buying decisions, they they just look
at say like, what are the numbers?
Like is this cost less to transport or it costs more to
transport than than say a diesel truck?
And The thing is that economics are much better than than diesel
truck. It's kind of basically a no
brainer. If you're a transport company,
you don't use an electric, the Tesla electric semi, you're just
losing money. Why would you do that?
Do you not like money? OK, but if you do like money,
then I recommend using the Tesla semi.
And so, so I think this is, this is really going to actually sell
at a scale that people will be surprised at and, and we'll
actually move the needle financially and, and do a lot of
good and also for, for CO2 and, and, and sustainability because
semis are driven all the time, actually even at, at much
smaller numbers, they have a, a very big effect on total carbon
emissions solved. So obviously we've got some new,
new products that we're working on under the covers and I think
these these are, I think this is going to be pretty special.
So, you know, some of them I think people at maybe at first
may think, oh, it's not going to be that amazing, but just wait,
it will be so, so our supercharge network is
continuing to grow. You know, rumors of the death of
Supercharger are greatly exaggerated.
We, we are in fact continuing to grow the supercharged network
significantly. In fact, this year I think we'll
put more, we'll deploy more Superchargers this year that are
actually working than the rest of industry combined, just FYI.
So now, now we are going to be more careful about like you
know, the capital efficiency of where we deploy supercharges.
But for sure any place that has congestion, any sort of missing
parts of the map that we're missing, we're going to put the
superchargers there. So even for the remainder of the
year, we, we expect to spend about half a billion dollars on,
on supercharge of deployment. So it's, it's very significant
and to be a well spent half a billion.
So this is a, you know, it's, it's a lot.
So, and we're this is actually not showing a bunch of new
markets that will be opening up later this year and next.
So we're obviously what we want Tesla to be worldwide.
And this is a lot of countries that we, you know, have zero to
very few Tesla's. And we obviously we, we want
Tesla everywhere. So there are a lot of new
markets that we're going to open up later this year or next.
We're also opening the Supercharger of Superchargers to
other companies with the that's, that's the adapter to the old
somewhat somewhat clunky connector.
But our goal is to be helpful to other car companies.
So any other car companies that are going electric, we do want
to, we do want to be helpful to them with our Supercharger
network. So we're providing them with
adapters and enabling them to have access to the Tesla
Supercharging network because we think it's better to do that
than to create a walled garden that inhibits EV growth.
Oops. There's a bit of latency here.
And we're also innovating a lot in battery production with the
4680 that's built right here. And it is it's a hard problem,
you know, like there, there are entire companies that just make
battery cells. That's all they do.
And but we're making good progress, like all the cyber
trucks that you see use the Tesla 4680 cell and that we have
a clear path to the 4680 being, we think probably the most
competitive cell from it's from a manufacturing efficiency
standpoint. And so it's, it's, but it is, it
is a hard problem. I have to say there's, there's
quite a lot of brain damage required to be good at cell
manufacturing. It's like a brain damage high.
But I think it does, it does give Tesla resilience in the
face of if there are changes in the, I don't know, geopolitical
situation somehow, but it like it's good to have so many
independence in cell manufacturing.
So, yeah, and we're making steady progress.
And we also have the the cathode refinery, which you can see
behind the the, the main factory.
So you can sort of see it in the picture there.
That's a cathode refinery. And then we've got the lithium
refinery in South Texas. And so we're just making sure
we've kind of got the piece of the puzzle and delete.
I mean, if you were to look at sort of a video of how Tesla
does say cathode and, and lithium refining and how the
rest of industry does it, it's night and day.
I mean, you can sort of eat off the floor in the, in the Tesla
refinery. And I would not recommend doing
so in the others. So, you know, it's, it's really,
it's, it's, it would definitely go very, very vertical here.
But I think this, this is a, it's a wise investment that will
that will pay off more than people realize.
So I don't think this thing is
working. So this year we're also on track
to complete a massive number of energy deployments.
So that is a gigantic increase in in deployment capability.
So we're really, we seem to be tracking to sort of a 2 to 300%
year over year growth and and energy storage deployment and
stationary pack. So it's giant.
And the, the limiting factor really is being able to build
more mega packs and build more power walls.
So we're ramping up production of the power Wall 3, which is
really a game changer for at, at the personal level, the
Powerwall 3, it usually takes about 3 iterations of, of any
given technology to, to really for, for it to be something
where it's like, OK, now we're really hitting the sweet spot.
So Powerwall 3 is like an epic product.
The Mega Pack is also, it's even it's, I'd call it sort of
iteration 2 of mega Pack is, is also an epic product with, with
the mega pack three, which is on a probably a couple years away.
We'll we'll start actually absorbing more and more of the
substation of the, of the, of the sort of power electronics.
So I sort of think you want to get to the point with the mega
pack where you can literally just take the high voltage power
lines and plug them in. Just there's no substation.
We just just plug them in, just drop them down and drop it down
and plug it in. That's, and now it works, which
is like mind blowing for the utility industry, by the way.
Like they're like what? Yeah, usually just plug the
wires in and it'll work for, for for very high voltage.
So that that I think is actually going to be a major.
So this is anyway. So, yeah, this is this is great,
excellent work by the energy storage team.
Services and other are also looking good.
So we're actually now making money on the services and other
stuff. So this is a kind of a big deal,
right? Yeah.
So see. Yeah.
And Tesla's obviously way more than a car company.
We've, you know, we've, we do a lot of software at Tesla, you
know, about, I don't know, roughly half the, or a very huge
percentage of the, of the engineering we do is actually
software engineering. So Tesla's, I'd say as much a
software company as it is a hardware company.
This is a very big deal because car companies are not software
companies normally. So this, this matters a lot.
So things like our auto bit of software for energy storage, all
the software that controls the cars, the mega packs, the the
power walls of the solar at the obviously for AI and and full
self driving are big deal insurance service and collision.
That Tesla also writes a lot of software internally that that
helps that like we call like the Tesla operating system
internally that is head and shoulders above what any other
company has. I think probably better than any
Fortune 500 company. The Tesla internal software is
is just way better. So it's yeah, it's just far more
than what people normally think of as a car company.
And Tesla's also the world the leader in real world AI.
So there's really this is a big deal like Tesla is a head of of
Google Matter, you know, opening eye anyone on real world
software actually look, taking in video and making decisions
based on video. No one can no one is even close.
And it's getting better, I'd say with each passing month, if not
each passing week. So yeah,
and and it's it's it's also worth noting that Tesla is
actually pretty good at chip design.
So the, the AI inference chip that's, that was designed by
Tesla, that's in cars. We had sort of our hardware 3 AI
in furnace cars made in the, you know, over the past year have
the hardware 4. We've just completed design on
hardware 5, which we're now calling AI 5 because it, it's,
it's really is, it's, it's, it's, there's still actually is
not a, a chip from NVIDIA or from.
And I have a lot of respect for NVIDIA from any company that we
would prefer to put in our car that is better than what we have
in the car. So, so we, we, we started from
scratch in chip design, just as we started from scratch in AI
software and have the best real world AI software and the and
the best AI and furnace chip in the world from nothing.
So this is, you know, a big deal.
And the, the capability of the of the, of the chips in the car
is, is dramatic. Like, I mean, right now all the
cars are actually training like we, we have hardware four run
hardware 3IN emulation mode. So we'll continue to make
significant progress in hardware 3, but later this year we'll
actually bifurcate, continue working on hardware 3, sort of
training on hardware 3, but but then do separate training on
hardware 4. That'll be the the sort of
training cluster that we're building at the South side of
the the Gigafactory and that that'll be dedicated hardware 4
video and inference. And you know, so that the
hardware 4 has cameras that have four or five times better
resolution. And depending on how you count
the, the sort of hardware 4, it's, it's about anywhere from 3
to 8 times better than hardware 3.
So it's, but, but everything you're seeing thus far is just
hardware 3. And we still have a long way to
go before we get, we reach the limits of hardware 3.
So hardware three, I think will, will still will do amazing
things, but but hardware four, I think we'll probably do about
five times better then hardware 5, which comes out in about 18
months or so is 10 times more capable than hardware 4.
It's it's like a, so if you know NVIDIA hardware, it's it's sort
of AB200 class computer. So you know, that's like this.
So what we'll just progressively do is improve how many nines of
reliability the car gets. And I and then of course that
will go into Optimus as well. So the same chip will go into,
you know, hardware fog will go into is, is an Optimus hardware
AI5, which we're calling switching from hardware 5 to AI5
will be an Optimus and in, in all cars in in about 18 months.
And it's really just a staggering amount of compute and
it's very, it's very power efficient to compute.
So it's, it's got to be because if you're in a mobile
application like a humanoid robot or a car, you, you can't
just be sucking down 10 kilowatts, you know, like you
can in a data center. So you you've got to be very
power efficient. So the, you know, sort of
hardware three and four are only a few 100 watts.
Yeah, Yeah, this is hard. Now hardware 5 will will be able
to go probably up to about 7 or 800 watts It but it'll, it'll
power fluctuate contingent upon the complexity of the scene that
it is that it is in. So if it is in a, you know,
parking lot stationary, it's like, you know, you know, you
don't have to think very much just like a person, like if
you're in a complicated traffic scenario, you've got to think a
lot more than if you're just cruising along, you know, on an
empty Rd. But something that I think is
potentially interesting down the road is like at some point the
Tesla fleet I think will probably be, you know, over 100
million vehicles. And if each vehicle has a
kilowatt of efficient inference compute, I think there's a,
there's, I think there's an sort of an Amazon Web Services, AWS
type opportunity. Because if you got 100 million
vehicles with a kilowatt of efficient inference compute,
you've got 100 gigawatts of compute, like 100 gigawatts of
computers a lot. And it's distributed all over
the world. So Even so, when the car is not
in autonomous mode, which I think probably is, you know,
doing robo taxi work maybe 50-60 hours a week, but about 100
hours a week, it's it's not, it's probably stationary.
So, so there's 100 hours of 100 gigawatts of Infernus compute,
which I think we should use. Why not?
You know, when, when, when people looked at Amazon, we
started out obviously as an online bookseller and it's on,
you know, it's going to be like this incredible place where you
can buy anything. And, and then they, and then
Amazon Web Services like, well, they got all these computers
that only really see peak usage sometimes, but what are they
going to do when it's not peak usage?
And sometimes the Amazon servers are down like 10%.
So that's when they said, well, let's do Amazon Web Services.
And then Amazon Web Services became more valuable than the
entire rest of Amazon. And, you know, I think there's,
there's some kind of opportunity there that's pretty significant
for, for Tesla down the road. You know, again, that's really
nobody's really factoring that in, but I think that that
actually will be quite significant.
We also know are no longer compute constrained for
training. So I, I check in with the team,
it's like, is there anything we could do to improve the pace of
progress with respect to training and inference?
And currently that is not the limiting factor.
In fact, the limiting factor right now is that the, the
amount of miles between interventions is so long that it
takes quite a while to figure out which version is better than
the other version because none of them are requiring any
interventions. So it's like, you know, if
you're not getting to like thousands of miles between
interventions or you're like 10,000 miles to get an
intervention, then like, well, the average person only drives
about 10,000 miles in a year. And if it's in an urban
environment and the average speed is 20 miles an hour, I
mean, so our professional test drivers get pretty bored,
frankly. You know, they, they're like,
OK, I drove all week and there was no intervention.
Like, like the highlight of the week would be like, yes, an
intervention. Finally, it's like getting to
that point. So this is where actually having
a giant fleet is extremely important because we can deploy
a new FSD model and run it in shadow mode and see what see how
well it performs. You know, compare how the human
drives the car versus the the new self driving build and and
then analyze that delta in shadow mode, like the shadow
knows or doesn't know, as the case may be, and and then be
able to assess by getting billions of miles very quickly
with the giant fleet like that. Basically that that data engine
is incredibly helpful. Like I actually, it's not
possible to solve the self driving problem without having
millions of vehicles on the road.
So, so that's actually the, it's like figuring out clever ways to
test which how good the next build FSD build is, is, is
actually the limiting factor right now.
And then of course, like I said, we are building another training
data center right here, which will be dedicated to Hardware 4
training. So we'll, we'll bifurcate
Hardware 3 and Hardware 4 training later this year.
We'll, we'll keep improving Hardware 3, but we're going to
uncork the full capability of Hardware 4 as well.
So yeah, I think, I think most people here have tried out
version 12 as we did say like sort of unsupervised full self
driving, full self driving would be version 12.
So we we are actually just keeping the version arbitrarily
at 12 and then like pulling a 12.412 point 312 point 412.5.
But it's actually really like version 13, version 14.
But anyways, this is an arbitrary designation, so 12.4
is actually like a whole different version than than 12.3
and 12.5 is a whole different version 12.4.
So you'll see really giant improvements.
I think sometimes factor of 10 improvements between a
successive versions. And then as I mentioned, the way
it'll work for the existing fleet is are we able to add or
subtract your car to the fleet as as you'd like?
And, and there will also be Tesla owned cars.
So it'll be a combination of like Uber plus Airbnb, but it'll
be pretty wild that the, that there'll be a software update
and then the whole, the whole fleet suddenly becomes
accessible. It's like suddenly you've got
7,000,010 million cars that can ultimately 10s of millions of
cars that can do autonomous driving and instead of being
used 10 hours a week, can be used 50 or 60 hours a week.
So it's it's pretty wild to just, you know, be in Palo Alto
with a bunch of cubes and then a humanoid robot just walks past.
We've made it a massive amount of progress with Optimists in a
short period of time, from someone pretending to be a robot
dancing in a suit to a pretty hodgepodgey robot, to a robot
that is actually doing useful tasks in the factory today.
So we have two optimist robots in our Fremont factory that are
doing basically this task, which is taking cells off the end of
the line and placing them in a shipping container.
And yeah, we actually have quite a few of these cruising around
our offices in in Palo Alto. So there's and, and I think
we've got kind of like one major hardware revision, which should
be done by end of this year or early next before.
And and then we'll move into a limited production next year of
Optimists limited production for use in our factories where we'll
test out the product kind of, you know, you know, as I said,
sort of eat our own dog food or whatever the electronic
equivalent of that is. So, but I think like next year,
my prediction is next year we'll have over over 1000, maybe a few
thousand Optimus robots working at Tesla and, and, and things
are going to scale up very rapidly from there.
So we'll iron out the bugs. It'll like the degree of
autonomy will be radically better.
You'll just literally be able to talk to it and say, please do
this task or I'm going to show you something now do that the
thing that I'm showing you and, you know, get to the point where
it can watch a video of something like a person and and
then learn just by looking at that video and and do that task.
So yeah. So really it's going to be quite
something. And and I'm confident of the
prediction that there will be more like the ratio of humanoid
robots to humans will be greater than one to 1.
So there'll be, you know, more than 10 billion humanoid robots
in the world, probably 20 or more.
And Tesla's going to be by far the leader in that.
You're seeing a lot of robot startups and, but I think it's
actually very challenging to, to do Optimus as a robot startup
because what we found to make Optimus work, we've had to
design, design from first principles from scratch every
part of the robot. So the motor, the gearbox, the
sensors, the power electronics, the communication system,
everything had to be done from scratch.
We, we found that there's basically nothing.
There's no supply chain. So even though there are many
electric motors made in the world, there's no supply chain
for the types of motors and sensors and gearboxes that are
needed for a humanoid robot. And you, I mean, what you're
saying here is our current generation hand and arm, but our
next, which has 11° of freedom, our next generation has 22° of
freedom. It will be able to play the
piano. So it's, it's really like, wow.
Now, of course, like I said, we need to make sure you don't have
the Terminator scenario. That's very important.
So safety of the humanoid robot will be very important, but
because it requires so much ground up design, designing
every motor, gearbox, sensor, power electronics from scratch,
it's, it's very hard for a startup to, if not impossible
for a startup to replicate that. But at Tesla, we have the
world's best electrical engineering.
I think we've got the world's best mechanical engineering for,
for gearboxes and, and, and for the electric motors, power
electronics. So, you know, we have the
resources to do that it it applies quite well.
And then you also have to have the, the brain you need the you
need the, the you need a power efficient inference computer,
which we've got for the car and we'll be using an optimist.
You need AI real, you need to be the best in real world AI and
tells us the best in real world AI.
So you need all of these. You need a very strong hand of
cards in order to make a compelling robot.
And then you also need to be very good at scale
manufacturing. So in order to have the robot
not cost like hundreds of thousands of dollars, in order
to make it cost like, you know, 10 or $20,000, actually need to
design for manufacturing and be very good at manufacturing.
And what in my experience prototypes are, are easy
compared to volume manufacturing.
Prototypes are easy. Production is hard, relatively
speaking. So Tesla has the production
capability, it has the engineering capability and has
the AI hardware and software capability and even the most
optimistic estimates that I've seen for for optimists, the
optimist optimist, I think under under count the magnitude of of
what this robot will be able to do.
You know, as I said at the beginning of the of the
presentation, I, you know, I agree with the Arkan best
analysis that autonomous transport is called sort of a 5
to $7 trillion market cap situation.
Optimus, I think is is a 25 literally $25 trillion market
cap situation. Now, I don't want to, I don't
want to trivialize, trivialize what's necessary to get there.
I mean, it's an immense amount of work that is required to get
there, like super difficult, but we are moving very fast down
that road. We're going to make it happen.
So thank you.