Hey, everybody, welcome back to the Elon Musk Podcast.
This is a show where we discuss the critical crossroads that
shape SpaceX, Tesla X, The Boring Company and Neurolink.
I'm your host, Will Walden. So do you remember for the last
decade Elon Musk saying the full self driving for Tesla cars was
just around the corner? Well, with this new FSD version
13.2 roll out and this potential upgrade during the Trump
presidency, should we finally take these claims seriously?
While Tesla initiated deployment of its newest Full Self, driving
the FSD software version 13.2 to employees and select customers
during the weekend, propelling the company's stock value
higher. In Monday trading, the EV
manufacturer shares rose 3.2% to $356.07, extending a remarkable
37% increase since the November 5th presidential election
results. Now, the latest FD upgrade
promises substantial improvements in autonomous
driving caabilities, with Tesla forecasting a sixfold reduction
in required driver interventions per mile traveled.
Now, early demonstrations of version 13.2 revealed enhanced
functionalities, including the system's ability to navigate
from parking spot to parking spot with minimal human
interaction. Now, Tesla's artificial
Intelligence division announced the update through its social
media account on X, stating new Brain who DIS.
NOW investment firm Stifle, demonstrated confidence in
Tesla's autonomous driving technology by substantially
increasing its stock price target from $287.00 to $411.00.
The adjustment primarily stems from analysts optimistic outlook
regarding the company's robotaxi program, dubbed Cyber Cab, and
continued advancement in self driving technology.
His assessment comes despite maintaining steady EBITDA
projections for 2024 and 2025 and reducing expectations for
2026. Now, financial analysts at Roth
MKM upgraded Tesla stock rating from Neutral to Buy,
establishing a new price target of $380.00, significantly higher
than their previous $80 a target.
Now, the firm's analysts suggest that Elon Musk's public support
for former President Trump and new President Trump has expanded
Tesla's consumer base and strengthened confidence in
potential market growth. Now, Tesla CEO Elon Musk
projected achievement of genuine autonomous driving capability by
mid 2025, focusing initialing on Model 3 and on Model Y vehicles
in California and Texas. Now, during Tesla's third
quarter earnings call last year, Musk acknowledges sorry.
Earlier this year, Musk acknowledges tendency to provide
optimistic timelines while also revealing potential hardware
limitations in vehicles equipped with hardware 3 point O,
promising free upgrades if necessary.
Now, early user feedback from experience FSD testers indicate
substantial improvements in the system's performance.
Veteran tester Dirty Tesla on X reported successful navigation
through snow covered dirt roads with complete autonomy, while
aid driver noted superior ride smoothness compared to
professional ride sharing services.
Now, the technical implementation of FSD version
13.2 demonstrates notable advancements in practical
functionality. Tesla Autopilot engineer
emphasized the system's comprehensive park to park
capabilities, allowing vehicles to complete entire journeys with
minimal driver input beyond initial destination selection.
Market analysts attribute Tesla's recent stock performance
partially to expectations of a more favorable regulatory
environment under the new Trump administration.
Wedbush Securities analyst Dan Ives suggested that Trump's
presidency could expedite the implementation timeline for
autonomous driving technology, potentially advancing goals
originally set for 2026 or 2027. And the company's strategic
positioning includes aggressive sales initiatives, particularly
in the US market. Tesla recently introduced year
end discounts on Model Y vehicles as part of its effort
to achieve record-breaking quarterly deliveries with
analyst consensus projecting 498,000 vehicle deliveries in
quarter four. Now there's another tester out
there. FSD tester Chuck Cook documented
improved performance in challenging scenarios,
specifically noting enhanced navigation of unprotected left
turns and natural appearing U-turn maneuvers.
These objectives or observations suggest meaningful progress in
the system's ability to handle complex traffic situations.
Now, the software updates impact extends beyond really basic
driving capabilities. Whole Mars blog NX verify the
system's comprehensive automation, reporting successful
navigation without requiring steering wheel interaction
throughout the journey at all. This achievement marks a notable
step towards Tesla's goal of fully autonomous operations.
You know, Tesla stock maintains a leading position within the
auto manufacturers industry group, holding an 88 composite
rating in 95 relative strength rating.
These metrics reflect strong market performance relative to
industry peers and overall market conditions and the
technological advancement represented by FSD.
The new FSD addresses several previous limitations.
The elimination of steering wheel jitter and improved
parking lot navigation, including automated Supercharger
station positioning, shows that it's a refined control system
and also enhanced environmental awareness.
Market response to Tesla's latest FSD release occurs
against the backdrop of intensifying competition in the
autonomous vehicle sector. The company's stock
consolidation around 34 month highs suggests investors
confidence and technical progress and marketing
positioning for Tesla. And the integration of
autonomous charging capabilities with FSD 13.2 represents a huge
technical achievement. System's ability to navigate to
and properly aligned with Supercharger stations addresses
a crucial aspect of EV operation.
Current market projections anticipate continued growth in
Tesla's delivery numbers, with expectations of two Point O
6,000,000 vehicles in 2024. This forecast brings upon the
company's previously quarter rating record of 200 or 485,000
deliveries in quarter 4 of 2023 in.
The development of autonomous driving technology from Tesla
occurs within a very complex regulatory and political
landscape. The potential influence of the
future administration policies on implementation of timelines
adds another dimension to market considerations and development
strategies. This new release of FSD combines
technical advancement with market optimization, while
political factors and regulatory considerations shape the
company's autonomous driving future under the new
administration. Now let's switch some gears here
from Tesla all the way to this guy's with SpaceX and NASA.
And the future of NASA's most powerful rocket hangs in the
balance following Donald Trump's recent electoral victory.
The Space Launch System or the SLS, which is a cornerstone of
our return to the moon, faces potential cancellation,
according to space industry insiders.
So Eric Berger recently posted on X.
To be clear, we're far from anything being settled, but
based on what I'm hearing, it seems at least 5050 that NASA's
Space Launch System rocket will be cancelled.
If Eric Berger says it, you know, he has some inside
information. He's been in this game for a
very long time. And it cred some shed some
credibility on this potential of cancellation of the SLS.
So the SLS rocket, let's get into this a little bit.
The SLS rocket serves as the primary launch vehicle for
NASA's Artemis program, which aims to return humans to the
moon for the first time since the Apollo era ended in 1972.
Now, this massive rocket has demonstrated its capabilities
through successful testing, including the unmanned Artemis 1
mission in 2022. The complete Artemis 3 mission
would mark humanity's return to the Lerner surface, and the
current mission architecture for Artemis 3 involves a carefully
choreographed sequence of events. 4 astronauts will launch
aboard NASA's Orion spacecraft, which is carried by the SLS
rocket into lunar orbit. Now.
Upon reaching lunar orbit, 2 crew members will transfer to
Spacex's Starship vehicle, which will have launched separately to
make the descent to the moon's surface, and after completing
their lunar exploration, these astronauts will return to orbit
in Starship, rejoin their colleagues in Orion, and make
the journey back to Earth. Now, technical challenges have
pushed the timeline for the first crude lunar landing to
autumn of 2026, considerably later than initially planned.
Various factors contribute to these delays, including
necessary redesigns of astronaut space suits, complications with
Orion's heat shield and life support systems, and ongoing
development issues with Starship Lunar Lander down at Boca Chica
Star Base, Texas. Additionally, the upgraded
mobile launch tower for the SLS has experienced both cost
overruns and scheduled delays. Now, NASA Space Corp program has
announced plans to send its own astronauts to the lunar surface
by 20-30, adding a competitive element to this timeline.
Chinese space missions typically maintain conservative scheduling
estimates, suggesting their projected timeline may be more
reliable than American estimates.
This development has created pressure on NASA to maintain a
schedule and technological edge in space exploration.
Now Elon Musk's role in the incoming administration as a
chief cost cutter tasked with finding up to $2 trillion in
U.S. Federal budget reductions.
As another layer of complexity to this situation, Musk's own
space company, which is SpaceX, has achieved recent success with
its Starship program, including an impressive demonstration
where the vehicles massive booster stage was recovered
using robotic arms. The chopsticks at their Texas
launch site at Starbase. Now let's get a little bit of
finances. The aspects of the SLS program
have drawn scrutiny from various quarters.
Each launch of the SLS carries an estimated price tag exceeding
$2 billion, while billions more have already been invested in
the raucous development in supporting infrastructure at
Kennedy Space Center. These costs stand in stark
contrast to Spacex's focus on reusable rocket technology,
which promises significantly lower launch costs.
We're not talking billions of dollars for an SLS, we're
talking millions of dollars now. The Starship vehicle presents an
intriguing alternative to the SLS, though, as it could
potentially serve both as a launch vehicle and the lunar
Lander. However, this option comes with
significant technical hurdles. Starship remains in its testing
phase right now must they must still demonstrate critical
capabilities such as in orbit refueling in uncrewed lunar
landings before it could be considered for crude missions.
Now, the Falcon Heavy, which is another SpaceX vehicle, has been
suggested as a possible launch platform for Orion.
This alternative would require substantial modifications to
both the rocket and the launch procedures, potentially
introducing new delays and technical challenges to the
Artemis program. But it wouldn't cost billions of
dollars to get this thing ready. These changes could impact both
positions of America and the Chinese Space Race.
Now. The Artemis program's goals
extend beyond simple lunar landings, though.
The program envisions establishing a permanent lunar
base where astronauts can conduct Advanced Research and
development technologies necessary for future space
exploration. The base would serve as a
proving ground for technologies and procedures needed for
eventual missions to Mars. Now, the Trump administration
has shown interest in prioritizing Mars exploration
over lunar missions, aligning with Musk's stated goal of
establishing a human presence on the Red Planet by 2028.
The shift in focus could significantly impact the future
of the SLS and the broader Artemis program.
The convergence of Trump's and Musk's Mars ambitions raises
questions about the long term direction of American space
policy. The original Artemis program,
established during President Trump's first administration in
2017, laid out a comprehensive plan for substantial lunar
exploration. The plan included not only
landing missions, but also the development of supporting
infrastructure and technologies necessary for long term lunar
presence. The current uncertainty
surrounding the SLS puts this broader vision at risk, and
NASA's assertion that the SLS is, quote, the only rocket that
can send Orion astronauts and cargo directly to the moon in a
single launch shows the rocket's unique capabilities.
The space agency has invested considerable resources in
developing this specialized vehicle designed specifically
for deep space missions. Cancelling the program could
necessitate significant redesigns of mission
architecture and supporting systems.
Now, the technical requirements for lunar missions demand
specific rocket designs and extensive planning for crew
safety and mission success. Landing sites, particularly in
the unexplored lunar South Pole region, present unique
challenges that the current mission architecture was
designed specifically to address.
Any alternative launch system could need to meet these same
stringent requirements, including the Falcon Heavy and
Starship. That the economic implications
of cancelling SLS program extend behind the billions of dollars
already invested in it. The program supports thousands
of jobs across multiple States and maintains crucial aerospace
engineering capabilities within the United States.
These factors could influence potential political support for
any proposed changes to the program, but NASA's willingness
to collaborate with commercial space companies demonstrates the
agency's adaptability and recognition of private sector
capabilities. However, the complexity of deep
space missions suggests that a hybrid approach combining
government and also commercial capabilities might prove more
effective than completely privatizing lunar exploration
efforts now. The decision about the SL s s
future carries implications for American leadership in space
exploration, international cooperation, and the development
of new space technologies. The incoming administration must
weigh various factors, including technical capabilities, economic
considerations, and geopolitical implications, before making any
final decisions about the program's future.
And the potential cancellation of the SLS is at a critical
juncture right now in American space exploration.
It's proven, it's already been around the moon and back, and
the Starship hasn't quite made it to orbit yet.
It's an emerging commercial alternative to the SLS, but it's
not quite there yet. There's also national security
interests and international competition in space to think
about. SpaceX has only launched a few
Starship rockets by this time and they haven't done a in orbit
refueling. They haven't gone to complete
orbit yet. They haven't launched a
satellite from this thing. It is not crew rated like the
Orion, and also it can't get to the moon in one shot.
It has to stay in orbit to refuel a bunch of times, about a
dozen to 20 times somewhere in that region before it actually
goes to the moon. So astronauts would have to
launch on probably a Falcon Heavy or even a Falcon 9 to get
to the Starship, and then the crew would transfer from that
capsule to the Starship and then fly all the way to the moon.
And they would completely dismantle the Orion program at
this point 'cause they wouldn't really need it other than
getting back to Earth. And it would completely destroy
that program. And thousands of people would
lose their jobs or be restructured into NASA's web
fabric of of people that work there.
So it's a very complex thing to think about.
If they go forward with canceling the SLS, it'll be
probably another six years before Starship is actually
ready to fly this whole mission and they have to reconfigure
Falcon Heavy. It's going to be a big deal.
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