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Today is our midterm 
examination, a chance for you to

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question and examine me. 
All right, so before we look at 

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the questions for the midterm 
examination, I want to discuss 

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briefly the ceasefire between 
United States and Iran. 

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So yesterday, Donald Trump 
announced that there will be a 

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two week pause to this war and 
that the United States and Iran 

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will meet in Pakistan to 
negotiate a possible long term 

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ceasefire. 
And when he said that's very 

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important is that he will use 
the 10 point uranium plan as a 

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framework to discuss a peace 
treaty. 

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And as you can see from the 10 
point plan, in fact, this is 

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almost a complete US surrender 
to Iran. 

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The first point is that the 
United States will guarantee 

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never to attack Iran again. 
Iran will have complete control 

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over the certain Hormuz. 
Iran can choose to enrich 

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uranium for its nuclear program.
All sanctions on Iran will be 

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removed. 
This is a very big deal. 

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Removal of all secondary 
sanctions against foreign 

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entities that do business with 
Iran and of and of all United 

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Nations Security Council 
resolutions against Iran and of 

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all International Atomic Energy 
Agency resolutions. 

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Compensation operations for the 
damage that United States 

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initial did to Iran. 
Withdrawal of US combat forces 

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from the Middle East, giving 
Iran control over the Middle 

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East. 
Now, last and the most important

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is that United States will also 
agree to end hostilities against

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all of Iran's proxies, including
Hezbollah and the Houthis in 

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Yemen. 
So as you can see, this is 

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basically a complete US 
surrender to Iran, which tells 

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us whether right away that 
Donald Trump is not serious. 

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If you go into a shop and you 
negotiate with a with a shop 

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owner and you want to sell maybe
a book to the guy, you're hoping

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for $100, but because it's 
bargaining, you think, oh, maybe

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I should start high. 
So you say $1000. 

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If you say $1000 and the show 
owner says, yeah, yeah, I'll 

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take that deal, there's 
something wrong here. 

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Okay, all right, so there's 
something very wrong and there's

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very little chance that the 
ceasefire will hold. 

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And in fact, we're already 
seeing news that the ceasefire 

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is being broken. 
OK, so there are three 

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individuals on Twitter who've 
made some very interesting 

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points. 
All right, so in this tweet, Mr.

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Bojack said that, listen, if 
this is really a ceasefire, why 

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is United States continue to 
send aircraft carriers, the USS 

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George Bush to the Middle East? 
What they're really trying to do

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is buy time in order for the 
ground troops to get ready to 

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attack and seize the street. 
OK, So once everything is in 

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position, then probably what 
happened is that Israel will 

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launch a false flag against the 
Americans, which will justify an

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American attack against Iran, 
right? 

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So that's a possible scenario. 
But again, the question is, if 

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this is really a ceasefire, if 
Donald Trump is really intent on

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peace, why does he continue to 
send U.S. forces to the Middle 

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East? 
That's question number one. 

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Question number 2 is the problem
is how the how Iran is defending

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itself. 
It's using something called the 

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Mosaic defense, which is say 
that there's 31 provinces and 

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these are 31 cells or units that
are all responsible for their 

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own strategy and attack and 
defence, meaning that there's no

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longer a centralized command. 
So it doesn't matter if you 

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negotiate with the leadership of
Iran because the IRGC, the 

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people who are fighting will not
agree to a ceasefire because 

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they do not trust the Americans 
or the Israelis. 

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So whatever happens in Pakistan 
will not affect the outcome of 

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the battlefield. 
That's a problem with the Mosak 

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defence. 
Think of the Mosaic defense as 

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almost a dead man switch, where 
if you kill the Ayatollah, the 

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Ayatollah will tell his people 
to fight to the end. 

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So the Mosaic defense will only 
come to an end if either Iran is

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defeated or the Americans are 
defeated. 

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This thing collapses if there's 
in between a ceasefire, because 

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in order for the Iranians to 
implement the ceasefire, they 

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themselves will have to go and 
control these mosaic units in 

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the provinces, which basically 
means a civil war, OK? 

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So it's almost impossible, even 
if Iran were to negotiate a 

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favorable peace deal, for Iran 
to actually implement this peace

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deal within its military. 
OK, That's problem #2 problem #3

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is the United States continues 
to have an air bridge to the 

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Middle East. 
So even though there's a 

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ceasefire, you have this massive
movement of US ground troops, of

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US planes, of US artillery and 
tanks to the Middle East. 

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So if there's really a peace, 
why is this happening? 

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And another way of saying this 
is that the political systems of

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both the United States and Iran 
have lost control over the war. 

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Once these militaries start 
fighting, they are determined to

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fight to the better end. 
OK. 

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But unfortunately, what this 
tells me, the fact that Iran is 

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willing to negotiate a peace 
treaty probably means that there

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is a schism or divide between 
the global leadership in Iran 

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and the military leadership in 
Iran. 

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And this is going to cause a lot
of problems in the future. 

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So maybe before this past month,
it seemed as though that Iran 

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had control over the battlefield
and Iran was winning, winning 

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it. 
But I think over time, what's 

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going to happen is that fissures
will rise in Iran, and Iran will

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start losing the battle more and
more as the United States and it

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will develop a much more 
coherent strategy against Iran. 

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Another major issue is that as 
this war drags on, the world 

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economy is going to suffer, 
which means that people can no 

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longer drive their cars, and 
which means maybe a lot of 

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people will also starve. 
And this means that ultimately, 

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public or global opinion will 
slowly turn against Iran, OK? 

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Even Iran's closest allies, 
Russia and China, will feel the 

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strain of this war and maybe 
even pressure Iran to end this 

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war. 
But again, as we discussed 

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previously, because of the way 
that Iran has structured its 

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military defense, it's 
impossible for Iran to end this 

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war unless it's either destroyed
or it's destroyed the Americans.

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OK, So this war, the ceasefire, 
it's only APR stunt, it will 

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actually lead to nothing. 
All right? 

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The major point, OK, of 
contention is whether or not 

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Lebanon is part of the peace 
treaty. 

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So the Iranians believe that 
this peace treaty also includes 

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its proxies, specifically 
Hezbollah in Lebanon and the 

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Houthis in Yemen. 
But after this peace treaty was 

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announced, Israel launched more 
than 100 strikes in 10 minutes 

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across Lebanon, killing 2050 
people, at least 2050 people, 

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OK? 
So Iran is obligated to defend 

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Hezbollah morally, and Israel 
understands that if Iran breaks 

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the peace treaty and defends 
Hezbollah, then it is Iran's 

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fault. 
OK. 

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And the Americans have come out 
and said that. 

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Well, you know, we agreed that 
Lebanon was not a part of the 

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deal and JD, that the vice 
president said, oh, it's a 

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legitimate misunderstanding. 
We thought that Hezbollah wasn't

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part of this deal, but the 
Iranians thought it was. 

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OK. 
So this is a misunderstanding. 

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OK, But this tells you that the 
Americans, in its release are 

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not serious about maintaining 
the ceasefire. 

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They've already found a 
loophole. 

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All right, okay, so let's now go
on to the midterm examination. 

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And as I said, you 2 can ask me 
questions and I will try my best

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to answer them. 
So this Twitter account OS app 

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did a very nice thing and 
basically analyzed all 8000 plus

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questions and broke it down into
some major categories. 

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All right, So what what I'm 
going to do first is I will look

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at these questions and then 
answer them. 

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All right? 
And then we'll look at some 

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other questions. 
All right. 

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So the first question is, all 
right, I said that the empire is

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declining, but at the same time,
the US could benefit from this 

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war. 
How do I reconcile the 

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contradiction? 
And the answer is it's not 

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really a contradiction. the 
United States is extremely 

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powerful. 
It's really a question of who 

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benefits from these changes. 
So even though the US empire 

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will lose control over the 
Middle East, the the American 

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nation could still exert control
over Mexico and Canada. 

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OK, it's something I will 
discuss it later on. 

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That's number one. 
What's the world eschatology in 

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shipping global events? 
How do you account for the 

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influence of 6 societies? 
All right, so these are the same

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question and I'll, I'll answer 
it right now. 

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All right, so let's examine how 
all this works. 

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All right, so first thing you 
need to understand is that 

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history moves in a certain 
direction. 

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OK, it's very complicated, it's 
very messy, but there is a 

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structure and a pattern to the 
movement of history. 

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OK, a structure and a pattern. 
So think of a river. 

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And when you see a river 
current, you think I can't see 

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anything. 
It's just going to be chaos. 

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But if you, if you're able to 
read the river, well, you know 

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how the river is moving, OK? 
So you can position your canoe 

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or CAG in a way that allows you 
to seamlessly, smoothly cross 

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the river, right? 
So that's the idea. 

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OK. 
But this is all very chaotic. 

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So what? 
So what happens is that there's 

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certain individuals, we can call
them occultists, who try to read

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the river or try to read 
historical patterns in history, 

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and they create something called
an eschatology. 

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OK, so think of the stars. 
When you try to read the stars 

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and try to find meaningless 
stars, we call this astrology, 

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right? 
But when you try to read human 

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history and you try to find a 
pattern in human history, we can

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call this eschatology. 
And the thing about the 

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eschatology is that it's a 
story. 

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And so you want the story to 
work out. 

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So it's both a prophecy as well 
as a plan. 

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You think it's going to happen, 
but you also think that you are 

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obligated to make it happen as 
well. 

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OK, so the occultist, these are 
British people, they try to turn

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the chaotic movement of history 
into a story that comes to an 

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end in which you can participate
in. 

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All right. 
OK then from these occultists 

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are form secret societies. 
In order to understand this 

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eschatology and also also to 
promote this eschatology. 

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Now what happens is that 
powerful people, OK, powerful 

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people, the rich and the 
powerful, they join these 

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societies. 
Why? 

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Because as a rich and powerful 
person, you want to know how 

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history moves in order to better
perceive yourself, in order to 

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protect your power and your 
wealth, OK? 

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That's why very famous people, 
they often have astrologers to 

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work for them. 
And that's why recent powerful 

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people join single societies 
because they want access to this

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secrets that tells them how to 
make better investments and how 

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to have more political power. 
Also, single societies enable 

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00:13:55,600 --> 00:14:01,080
them to create networks in order
to maintain their power. 

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00:14:01,160 --> 00:14:08,720
OK, But the problem is that you 
need people to actually move 

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00:14:08,720 --> 00:14:12,680
towards the ending to propel 
this eschatology. 

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00:14:12,960 --> 00:14:19,000
And these people we can call 
agents, OK, agents. 

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00:14:22,680 --> 00:14:25,520
And these agents, of course, 
include Donald Trump and 

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00:14:25,520 --> 00:14:29,760
Vladimir Putin, OK. 
And this is how the world works,

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where the occultists are the 
ones who imagine the world, and 

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the rich and powerful are the 
ones who act out the world in 

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00:14:38,800 --> 00:14:41,360
order to benefit themselves. 
And then they appoint certain 

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00:14:41,360 --> 00:14:48,680
agents who are like puppets in 
order to move the world in a 

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certain direction. 
OK, so these agents are like 

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00:14:51,320 --> 00:14:56,320
vectors, all right? 
But there's certain problems 

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00:14:56,400 --> 00:15:00,720
with this system. 
The first problem is that there 

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are different secret societies, 
and they fight amongst 

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00:15:03,040 --> 00:15:06,120
themselves to achieve different 
eschatologies, OK? 

213
00:15:06,960 --> 00:15:11,520
The other problem is that the 
rich and powerful will often 

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switch secret societies, switch 
loyalties in order to maximize 

215
00:15:15,840 --> 00:15:17,160
the benefit. 
So they don't have any 

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00:15:17,160 --> 00:15:20,320
loyalties, right? 
And then the last problem is 

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00:15:20,320 --> 00:15:23,440
that these agents like Donald 
Trump and Vladimir Putin, they 

218
00:15:23,440 --> 00:15:27,240
seem like puppets, but they 
themselves believe they are 

219
00:15:27,440 --> 00:15:32,240
using these six IDs to achieve 
their own vision, which is given

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to them by God. 
OK, So it's a very complicated 

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00:15:38,880 --> 00:15:43,360
system. 
And This is why no one thinks 

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00:15:43,360 --> 00:15:46,640
that it's all grand conspiracy 
because each person is doing 

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00:15:46,640 --> 00:15:50,400
his, his, her own part 
subconsciously to maximize his 

224
00:15:50,400 --> 00:15:52,600
or her benefit. 
OK, so it's on a top down 

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00:15:52,600 --> 00:15:55,440
system. 
It's a much more dynamic, fluid 

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game than people assume. 
OK, so this is a map that helps 

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00:16:02,320 --> 00:16:05,800
us understand how the world 
works. 

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00:16:06,320 --> 00:16:09,520
And This is why I'm able to 
figure out what's happening in 

229
00:16:09,520 --> 00:16:11,560
the moon, the East, because if 
you're able to focus on the 

230
00:16:11,560 --> 00:16:16,840
story, OK, the story here, you 
basically know where people are 

231
00:16:16,840 --> 00:16:20,160
going, even though you may not 
be aware of what the different 

232
00:16:20,160 --> 00:16:24,280
different are doing and how the 
different agents are thinking, 

233
00:16:24,440 --> 00:16:25,880
OK? 
As long as you're able to figure

234
00:16:25,880 --> 00:16:29,800
out their cult is how they're 
thinking, you're able to figure 

235
00:16:29,800 --> 00:16:32,320
out the story that they want to 
tell the world. 

236
00:16:32,560 --> 00:16:36,400
You can basically figure out the
general direction of the world 

237
00:16:36,440 --> 00:16:40,680
in the long term. 
OK, All right, so now what I 

238
00:16:40,680 --> 00:16:47,280
want to talk about is China. 
What is China and and what is 

239
00:16:47,280 --> 00:16:51,000
China going to do? 
All right, so again, let's go 

240
00:16:51,000 --> 00:16:54,520
back to our theory of how the 
world works, of how the world is

241
00:16:54,520 --> 00:16:59,480
structured. 
You have the empire, and then 

242
00:16:59,480 --> 00:17:01,520
from the empire you have the 
game masters. 

243
00:17:02,680 --> 00:17:07,400
OK, the deal on finance, then 
they create the global economy. 

244
00:17:09,680 --> 00:17:15,040
Then this creates the rule space
in actual order. 

245
00:17:17,160 --> 00:17:26,680
And then you have the education 
system, media and culture in 

246
00:17:26,680 --> 00:17:30,400
order to indoctrinate people to 
believe in the system. 

247
00:17:30,400 --> 00:17:33,680
But this system is fair, right 
and natural. 

248
00:17:34,160 --> 00:17:36,560
OK. 
And then you have parasitic 

249
00:17:36,560 --> 00:17:42,960
organizations, science, crime, 
intelligence, to control the 

250
00:17:42,960 --> 00:17:47,680
system, but also to draw 
benefit, to extract value from 

251
00:17:47,680 --> 00:17:51,200
the system. 
Now, what we understand is that 

252
00:17:51,520 --> 00:17:55,240
the beauty of the system is that
it is capable of extending 

253
00:17:55,240 --> 00:18:00,080
itself and replicating itself in
other societies. 

254
00:18:00,080 --> 00:18:05,240
OK? 
So the two examples are the GCC 

255
00:18:06,120 --> 00:18:09,560
and China. 
OK. 

256
00:18:09,880 --> 00:18:12,600
This is really important for us 
to appreciate. 

257
00:18:13,240 --> 00:18:17,160
China is not a civilization. 
China is not a nation state. 

258
00:18:17,400 --> 00:18:23,360
China is a construct of empire. 
OK, China, what the system has 

259
00:18:23,360 --> 00:18:28,600
done is basically taken all its 
elements and embedded itself 

260
00:18:28,920 --> 00:18:39,640
into China to create a vassal 
state, OK? 

261
00:18:39,960 --> 00:18:45,360
Or you can also see a mirage. 
And then you're like, OK, well, 

262
00:18:45,360 --> 00:18:45,800
what? 
What? 

263
00:18:45,800 --> 00:18:48,160
What does that mean? 
Well, just think of the GCC. 

264
00:18:48,160 --> 00:18:51,720
Where before the empire, the GCC
was just a desert. 

265
00:18:52,720 --> 00:18:58,960
And the empire, the system takes
the GCC and turns it into this 

266
00:18:58,960 --> 00:19:05,200
seemingly vibrant, cosmopolitan,
wealthy center. 

267
00:19:05,880 --> 00:19:08,120
And then they bring in the 
universities, right, like 

268
00:19:08,120 --> 00:19:14,440
Georgetown, NYU, they bring in 
culture, they bring in the media

269
00:19:14,440 --> 00:19:16,720
ecosystem. 
So this system replicates 

270
00:19:16,720 --> 00:19:20,160
replicates itself into the GCC 
as well as China. 

271
00:19:20,600 --> 00:19:25,760
Now, this is important because 
the moment that this system is 

272
00:19:25,760 --> 00:19:30,520
under strain, OK, for example, 
we ran a tax it, we see it's all

273
00:19:30,520 --> 00:19:33,480
just a mirage. 
This system is not sustainable. 

274
00:19:33,480 --> 00:19:36,720
It collapses onto itself because
it doesn't have a civilization, 

275
00:19:36,720 --> 00:19:40,080
it doesn't have an existing 
soul, OK? 

276
00:19:40,080 --> 00:19:44,640
It's all just appearance. 
And what I believe is that China

277
00:19:44,880 --> 00:19:48,640
is in a very similar situation. 
That's why China was allowed to 

278
00:19:48,640 --> 00:19:50,680
join WTO. 
That's why China, so many 

279
00:19:50,680 --> 00:19:54,800
Chinese students go overseas to 
become educated, OK, To create 

280
00:19:54,800 --> 00:19:59,440
this mirage that China is this 
modern flourishing economy. 

281
00:20:00,480 --> 00:20:03,160
So. 
That this is China's 

282
00:20:03,160 --> 00:20:07,480
relationship to the world. 
So rather than believe that 

283
00:20:07,480 --> 00:20:10,880
China is competitor to the 
system, we need to appreciate 

284
00:20:10,880 --> 00:20:13,800
that China is really an 
extension of the system. 

285
00:20:14,120 --> 00:20:18,680
So if this system comes under 
strain, China itself comes under

286
00:20:18,680 --> 00:20:21,040
strain. 
That's why China is so 

287
00:20:21,040 --> 00:20:25,400
desperate, so anxious to see 
peace in the Middle East again. 

288
00:20:26,080 --> 00:20:29,120
OK, so there's there are rumors,
there's news reporting that 

289
00:20:29,120 --> 00:20:33,760
China has has exerted pressure 
on Iran to negotiate a ceasefire

290
00:20:34,320 --> 00:20:39,320
because if the global economy 
collapses, China is in a lot of 

291
00:20:39,320 --> 00:20:41,360
trouble. 
All right. 

292
00:20:41,960 --> 00:20:47,880
OK. 
OK. 

293
00:20:48,320 --> 00:20:53,920
So what are long term 
implications of a Hollywood 

294
00:20:53,920 --> 00:21:00,880
Pentagon complex? 
OK, and the answer is if you go 

295
00:21:00,880 --> 00:21:06,560
back to the system, OK, no one 
actually knows what's going on, 

296
00:21:07,440 --> 00:21:10,800
but they believe they know 
what's going on and they believe

297
00:21:10,880 --> 00:21:13,440
they're individual parts of the 
story. 

298
00:21:13,480 --> 00:21:17,840
OK, so if you're in culture, you
think you're the ones in control

299
00:21:18,200 --> 00:21:19,600
and you're the ones dictating 
policy. 

300
00:21:19,600 --> 00:21:21,280
If you're in the media, you 
think you're the ones in 

301
00:21:21,280 --> 00:21:22,760
control. 
If you're in education, you 

302
00:21:22,760 --> 00:21:25,080
think you're in control. 
OK, so everyone just basically 

303
00:21:25,080 --> 00:21:28,920
lives in his own bubble, in his 
own fantasy world without being 

304
00:21:28,920 --> 00:21:32,480
able to see the bigger picture. 
And that's why we don't have 

305
00:21:32,480 --> 00:21:37,520
control and agency and free will
over how the system will turn 

306
00:21:37,520 --> 00:21:39,280
out. 
OK. 

307
00:21:39,720 --> 00:21:44,440
And we cannot because it's 
actually very difficult for us 

308
00:21:44,440 --> 00:21:48,640
to really appreciate how the 
system works. 

309
00:21:48,840 --> 00:21:52,520
It's much easier for us to 
believe in our fantasies because

310
00:21:52,520 --> 00:21:56,880
it allows us to work with our 
friends and our colleagues much 

311
00:21:56,880 --> 00:21:59,120
easier. 
It's much easier for people to 

312
00:21:59,120 --> 00:22:03,600
live in his own bubble and to be
delusional than it is for the 

313
00:22:03,600 --> 00:22:08,160
person to be objective. 
Okay, so the Hollywood Pentagon 

314
00:22:08,240 --> 00:22:11,640
complex, it is not just unique 
to America, it is true for 

315
00:22:11,640 --> 00:22:13,600
everyone. 
How do emerging powers like 

316
00:22:13,600 --> 00:22:17,280
China, factoring in the pretty 
shifts in global order? 

317
00:22:17,280 --> 00:22:20,400
I already told you that all 
these things that you believe 

318
00:22:20,400 --> 00:22:23,200
alternatives, including digital 
currency, renewables, China, 

319
00:22:23,360 --> 00:22:26,120
they're all just projections, 
extensions of the system. 

320
00:22:26,280 --> 00:22:29,160
The system is on the strain. 
These are on the strain as well,

321
00:22:29,400 --> 00:22:31,440
OK? 
What should can individuals 

322
00:22:31,440 --> 00:22:34,120
employ to navigate potential 
global economic stability and 

323
00:22:34,120 --> 00:22:39,400
resource scarcity? 
OK, so the problem is that 

324
00:22:39,400 --> 00:22:42,880
individuals by themselves cannot
navigate change. 

325
00:22:43,120 --> 00:22:48,240
Individuals need to enter into 
communities. 

326
00:22:48,320 --> 00:22:54,800
OK, So if you really want to 
survive the change, well, first 

327
00:22:54,800 --> 00:22:57,240
of all, you need to educate 
yourself as to what's going on. 

328
00:22:57,240 --> 00:22:59,640
And that's why I teach these 
classes to give you the bigger 

329
00:22:59,640 --> 00:23:02,480
picture as to how the world 
works and where things are 

330
00:23:02,480 --> 00:23:05,320
going. 
But you also need to make need 

331
00:23:05,320 --> 00:23:08,680
to make a commitment to reach 
out to other people, become 

332
00:23:08,680 --> 00:23:12,600
their friends, be generous and 
open with them, share with them 

333
00:23:12,600 --> 00:23:15,200
and build a community. 
OK. 

334
00:23:15,480 --> 00:23:18,280
Also, one thing that I I would 
recommend is maybe starting a 

335
00:23:18,280 --> 00:23:22,760
family and the reason and you're
like, OK, wait a minute here. 

336
00:23:22,760 --> 00:23:26,120
This is silly because you have 
said for the longest time the 

337
00:23:26,120 --> 00:23:28,600
world is collapsing. 
This is the end of the world. 

338
00:23:28,720 --> 00:23:34,440
Why would you have children? 
And the answer is because, first

339
00:23:34,440 --> 00:23:36,840
of all, death doesn't matter. 
Destruction doesn't really 

340
00:23:36,840 --> 00:23:40,280
matter. 
What matters is our ability in 

341
00:23:40,280 --> 00:23:44,720
this world to live a creative, 
purposeful, significant life. 

342
00:23:45,000 --> 00:23:47,120
OK, That's why we're here. 
It's not. 

343
00:23:47,160 --> 00:23:51,840
It's not to make $1,000,000. 
It's not to eat a lot of food. 

344
00:23:52,040 --> 00:23:55,800
It's to have the best experience
possible to extend the 

345
00:23:55,800 --> 00:24:00,280
imagination of the universe. 
And what I found having 

346
00:24:00,280 --> 00:24:05,120
children, I have 3 kids, is that
I live every day with tremendous

347
00:24:05,160 --> 00:24:11,680
energy and purpose because I'm 
here not to become famous or to 

348
00:24:11,680 --> 00:24:13,480
make a lot of money. 
I'm here to make sure that my 

349
00:24:13,480 --> 00:24:17,760
kids are happy and healthy. 
And that's why I get up in the 

350
00:24:17,760 --> 00:24:20,800
morning and work very hard. 
And I don't really care about 

351
00:24:20,800 --> 00:24:22,920
the world. 
All I care about is, are my kids

352
00:24:22,920 --> 00:24:25,840
happy and healthy. 
So children and family give you 

353
00:24:25,920 --> 00:24:31,480
a energy, a purpose, a meaning 
that drives you to greater 

354
00:24:31,480 --> 00:24:35,960
creative heights. 
OK, all right, What are the 

355
00:24:36,120 --> 00:24:39,560
primary drivers behind specific 
geopol actions and how do these 

356
00:24:39,560 --> 00:24:42,840
motivation that the game theory?
OK, all right, so again, this is

357
00:24:42,840 --> 00:24:47,360
a really important theory to 
understand where the occultists 

358
00:24:47,360 --> 00:24:50,600
are the main drivers. 
Why do you see occultists? 

359
00:24:50,800 --> 00:24:55,600
Whether it be poets or prophets,
they're the ones who imagine the

360
00:24:55,600 --> 00:24:59,840
world we live in, OK? 
And we can and others can only 

361
00:25:00,720 --> 00:25:03,760
work within the boundaries of 
this imagination. 

362
00:25:05,120 --> 00:25:08,320
So yes, the rich and the 
powerful, they have all the 

363
00:25:08,320 --> 00:25:10,920
money and all the wealth, but 
they don't have an imagination. 

364
00:25:11,800 --> 00:25:15,760
So, and ultimately, your actions
have to be driven by your 

365
00:25:15,760 --> 00:25:19,000
thoughts. 
And it sees a cultist, OK, who 

366
00:25:19,000 --> 00:25:21,440
drive your thoughts, who control
your thoughts. 

367
00:25:22,080 --> 00:25:26,320
So we just live in the world 
imagined by a cultist, who they 

368
00:25:26,320 --> 00:25:30,840
are, what they want, how they 
how they work is something that 

369
00:25:30,840 --> 00:25:34,840
we'll discuss after the break. 
OK, After today, we're going to 

370
00:25:34,960 --> 00:25:36,800
on a one week break for the 
midterms. 

371
00:25:36,800 --> 00:25:38,400
And then we'll come back, We'll 
start more. 

372
00:25:38,400 --> 00:25:39,480
We'll talk more about these 
people. 

373
00:25:39,480 --> 00:25:41,120
They're cultists, OK? 
They're very important people to

374
00:25:41,120 --> 00:25:42,960
talk about. 
All right, so let's move on. 

375
00:25:48,520 --> 00:25:51,320
OK, Now I want to look at some 
individual questions. 

376
00:25:51,760 --> 00:25:56,640
All right, So this is Joyce Lay 
from Substack. 

377
00:25:56,640 --> 00:25:59,280
She's a founding member. 
So thank you, Joyce, for your 

378
00:25:59,560 --> 00:26:03,080
generosity. 
OK, she asked this question. 

379
00:26:04,280 --> 00:26:08,760
You make 3 predictions about the
outcome of the US Iran war, but 

380
00:26:08,800 --> 00:26:11,360
I don't have any time frames. 
Yeah, I don't do time frames 

381
00:26:11,360 --> 00:26:14,440
because these things are trends,
OK? 

382
00:26:14,440 --> 00:26:18,760
They're general movements, OK. 
And she says, well, if all three

383
00:26:18,760 --> 00:26:23,520
come true, then then we have to 
believe that it may not be 

384
00:26:23,520 --> 00:26:27,000
because of the war itself. 
How do you differentiate between

385
00:26:27,000 --> 00:26:29,960
causation and correlation? 
OK, this is a great question, 

386
00:26:30,040 --> 00:26:32,200
and it's something that I think 
a lot about. 

387
00:26:32,440 --> 00:26:35,760
So I make these predictions in 
order to validate my prediction 

388
00:26:35,760 --> 00:26:37,280
model. 
But just because these 

389
00:26:37,280 --> 00:26:40,240
predictions turn out to be 
correct does not validate my 

390
00:26:40,240 --> 00:26:43,400
prediction model 100%. 
OK. 

391
00:26:43,760 --> 00:26:47,280
And that's why it's important to
keep an open mind and to 

392
00:26:47,280 --> 00:26:51,040
continue to make predictions. 
Now, what I will say is this. 

393
00:26:51,600 --> 00:26:54,480
When I first started making 
predictions two years ago, I was

394
00:26:54,480 --> 00:26:58,920
just looking at patterns and 
then trying to figure out what 

395
00:26:58,920 --> 00:27:02,920
patterns were the most salient 
or the most obvious. 

396
00:27:02,920 --> 00:27:04,920
And then I made those 
predictions and I was very 

397
00:27:05,080 --> 00:27:06,680
confident about these 
predictions. 

398
00:27:07,120 --> 00:27:09,680
Now that I'm famous, now that 
people are demanding I make 

399
00:27:09,680 --> 00:27:13,560
predictions every day, it's hard
for me to make accurate 

400
00:27:13,560 --> 00:27:16,520
predictions because I don't have
access to all the information 

401
00:27:16,560 --> 00:27:21,600
need to think clearly, 
objectively, because I know that

402
00:27:21,600 --> 00:27:25,120
whatever I say is have an impact
on global events, OK. 

403
00:27:25,480 --> 00:27:29,640
So this is a major constraint on
my capacity to make accurate 

404
00:27:29,640 --> 00:27:33,200
prediction. 
I'm no longer an observer, I'm a

405
00:27:33,200 --> 00:27:35,600
player, OK? 
And I also get a lot of 

406
00:27:35,600 --> 00:27:40,080
influence from other people who 
want to control my prediction. 

407
00:27:40,080 --> 00:27:41,880
I understand that. 
So I try to keep away from 

408
00:27:41,880 --> 00:27:45,600
people as much as possible, but 
it's an impossible thing. 

409
00:27:45,760 --> 00:27:47,880
So I, so I appreciate this 
question. 

410
00:27:47,880 --> 00:27:50,800
Yes, correlation and causation 
are two different things 

411
00:27:50,800 --> 00:27:54,400
altogether. 
It's possible that we'll never 

412
00:27:54,400 --> 00:27:57,920
really understand causation. 
The other thing that I, I want 

413
00:27:58,120 --> 00:28:04,640
to emphasize is that I, I myself
appreciate the limitations to my

414
00:28:04,640 --> 00:28:08,400
own objectivity. 
OK, because of my status today. 

415
00:28:08,680 --> 00:28:13,480
OK, so that's from Joyce. 
Isn't pomp and every politician 

416
00:28:13,480 --> 00:28:17,480
just a puppet of the societies? 
This is a great question. 

417
00:28:17,480 --> 00:28:19,840
It's something that I that I 
addressed earlier, which is yes,

418
00:28:19,840 --> 00:28:23,320
they are agents. 
They can only be agents. 

419
00:28:23,320 --> 00:28:26,960
But at the same time, the agents
have agency, The agents have 

420
00:28:26,960 --> 00:28:30,480
free will. 
So think of Napoleon and Julius 

421
00:28:30,480 --> 00:28:34,600
Caesar, who and they were 
obviously supported by secret 

422
00:28:34,600 --> 00:28:40,360
societies, but they reach a 
certain point where they can 

423
00:28:40,360 --> 00:28:44,600
betray the secret society or 
bear off in a different 

424
00:28:44,600 --> 00:28:46,440
direction. 
And Hitler and Stalin are also 

425
00:28:46,440 --> 00:28:48,680
different examples, OK. 
So every great person in 

426
00:28:48,680 --> 00:28:51,480
history, most of them are 
supported by civil societies, 

427
00:28:51,720 --> 00:28:54,400
but they also reach a point 
where they feel they have a 

428
00:28:54,400 --> 00:28:58,760
higher quality and is God that 
they must be loyal to. 

429
00:28:58,800 --> 00:29:01,600
So they betray their serious 
society. 

430
00:29:01,600 --> 00:29:03,800
And I think that something will 
something will happen with both 

431
00:29:03,800 --> 00:29:11,080
Trump and Vladimir Putin, OK. 
I have the. 3rd Rome. 

432
00:29:11,200 --> 00:29:14,000
I have the American Technate and
I have Patruderika. 

433
00:29:14,320 --> 00:29:16,840
Wait a minute here. 
These are three different 

434
00:29:16,840 --> 00:29:22,640
empires, and the reality is that
this unipolar moment where 

435
00:29:22,640 --> 00:29:26,360
America controls everything, it 
is unique in human history. 

436
00:29:26,480 --> 00:29:29,720
It's not sustainable and it will
not last. 

437
00:29:30,080 --> 00:29:33,320
So the idea of competing 
empires, it's much more common 

438
00:29:33,320 --> 00:29:36,040
in human history. 
So yes, you'll have to technique

439
00:29:36,040 --> 00:29:39,640
where America retreats into 
greater North America, Russia 

440
00:29:39,840 --> 00:29:44,480
exerts control over its 
territory, and Israel tries to 

441
00:29:44,480 --> 00:29:46,600
build a Pax Eudaica in the 
Middle East. 

442
00:29:46,760 --> 00:29:49,160
And they will be in competition 
against each other. 

443
00:29:49,280 --> 00:29:50,800
There'll be some areas in which 
they cooperate. 

444
00:29:50,920 --> 00:29:52,600
There are some areas in which 
they compete. 

445
00:29:53,080 --> 00:29:56,440
And so we are moving towards a 
multi polar world, OK. 

446
00:29:56,640 --> 00:30:01,880
And we don't actually even know 
how long this multi polar world 

447
00:30:01,880 --> 00:30:04,600
will sustain itself. 
Probably not very long, maybe 10

448
00:30:04,600 --> 00:30:06,360
years, maybe 20 years. 
OK. 

449
00:30:08,960 --> 00:30:20,920
All right, so this question. 
Is why would the world be 

450
00:30:20,920 --> 00:30:25,400
dependent on American 
fertilizers energy when other 

451
00:30:25,400 --> 00:30:30,760
parts of the world have. 
Energy and fertilizers. 

452
00:30:30,760 --> 00:30:33,120
As well. 
And the answer is trade access, 

453
00:30:33,520 --> 00:30:36,320
OK. 
What America can. 

454
00:30:36,320 --> 00:30:41,280
Do that other nations cannot do 
is basically retreat into its 

455
00:30:41,280 --> 00:30:46,120
continental fortress and control
sea trade. 

456
00:30:46,880 --> 00:30:52,320
OK, so right now the easiest way
to trade is through the sea. 

457
00:30:53,080 --> 00:30:56,960
And unfortunately for the world,
America controls the seas with 

458
00:30:56,960 --> 00:30:59,960
its navies. 
OK, So what America can do is 

459
00:31:00,160 --> 00:31:04,080
basically allow its ships to go 
anywhere in the world and block 

460
00:31:04,200 --> 00:31:07,640
Chinese, Iranian, Russian ships 
from accessing the rest of the 

461
00:31:07,640 --> 00:31:11,360
world. 
Now, a counter to this is that, 

462
00:31:11,440 --> 00:31:13,840
well, you know, you don't have 
to go by sea. 

463
00:31:14,680 --> 00:31:17,480
If you were to unite Europe, 
Asia and Africa and the Middle 

464
00:31:17,480 --> 00:31:20,040
East, you can just use railways.
And that's what China wants to 

465
00:31:20,040 --> 00:31:22,240
do. 
The problem is Iran. 

466
00:31:22,360 --> 00:31:24,880
That's why America is so 
invested in destroying Iran, 

467
00:31:25,080 --> 00:31:27,440
because Iran is really the pivot
of the world. 

468
00:31:27,440 --> 00:31:31,320
If you're going to destroy Iran,
it'll be very hard for China to 

469
00:31:31,320 --> 00:31:37,200
access Belton Road and hard for 
Russia to trade with Africa. 

470
00:31:37,840 --> 00:31:42,480
OK, All right. 
I would challenge Professor Zhao

471
00:31:42,480 --> 00:31:44,720
on his assessment of why Russia 
attacked Ukraine. 

472
00:31:45,680 --> 00:31:49,480
Russia was not prepared for the 
long war and it adapted. 

473
00:31:49,520 --> 00:31:52,520
OK, Yeah. 
So the general theory, the 

474
00:31:52,760 --> 00:31:59,280
general explanation is that NATO
provoked Russia into an attack. 

475
00:32:00,120 --> 00:32:01,600
And that's true to a certain 
extent. 

476
00:32:02,000 --> 00:32:05,920
But we have to remember that if 
you commit to a long war, if you

477
00:32:05,920 --> 00:32:10,720
commit to any war, you need to 
have a long term strategy 

478
00:32:11,160 --> 00:32:14,040
because you need so many 
different organizations, 

479
00:32:14,040 --> 00:32:17,680
institutions, parties involved 
in a war, OK. 

480
00:32:17,880 --> 00:32:21,920
A war means a fundamental 
restructuring of society and 

481
00:32:21,920 --> 00:32:26,400
therefore you need a grand 
strategy, you need a 

482
00:32:27,080 --> 00:32:32,480
eschatology. 
OK, because this is what? 

483
00:32:32,480 --> 00:32:38,040
Allows for political will. 
And that's the issue that the 

484
00:32:38,040 --> 00:32:40,200
Americans. 
Are facing in Iran where they 

485
00:32:40,200 --> 00:32:44,360
don't really have have an 
eschatology or grand strategy 

486
00:32:45,240 --> 00:32:48,480
that's articulated OK there are 
people in America who do have 

487
00:32:48,480 --> 00:32:51,240
the grand strategy and that's 
called eschatology, but it's 

488
00:32:51,240 --> 00:32:53,840
articulated to the American 
people OK. 

489
00:32:53,840 --> 00:32:56,120
And that's why America doesn't 
really have the political will 

490
00:32:56,320 --> 00:33:01,920
to sustain this war in Iraq. 
So again, it there's, there's 

491
00:33:01,920 --> 00:33:06,520
this misconception that these 
these people, Putin, Trump, they

492
00:33:06,520 --> 00:33:09,320
just work. 
They just have these emotions 

493
00:33:09,320 --> 00:33:10,960
like, I want to go attack. 
So they go attack. 

494
00:33:11,120 --> 00:33:13,880
That's not how these things 
work, OK? 

495
00:33:14,080 --> 00:33:19,320
You need a lot of people to 
agree to attack Ukraine, to 

496
00:33:19,320 --> 00:33:23,400
attack, to agree to attack Iran 
before these things happen, OK. 

497
00:33:23,720 --> 00:33:26,720
The, the idea that one man can 
control an entire country, it is

498
00:33:26,720 --> 00:33:29,080
just a myth. 
It cannot happen that way. 

499
00:33:29,560 --> 00:33:32,320
A country is controlled by 
different vested interests, 

500
00:33:32,320 --> 00:33:35,040
different institutions. 
These institutions have to align

501
00:33:35,040 --> 00:33:37,080
together in order for something 
to happen. 

502
00:33:37,520 --> 00:33:39,000
OK? 
Otherwise they'll just sit back 

503
00:33:39,000 --> 00:33:43,080
and do nothing. 
And that's a situation that Iran

504
00:33:43,080 --> 00:33:45,960
faced in the lead up to this war
where everyone was like, you 

505
00:33:45,960 --> 00:33:48,600
know, the Americans, you know, 
the Israelis are going to attack

506
00:33:48,600 --> 00:33:50,120
you. 
So take the initiative. 

507
00:33:50,240 --> 00:33:51,840
Why are you still sitting around
doing nothing? 

508
00:33:52,000 --> 00:33:54,800
And the answer is because there 
are different factions. 

509
00:33:54,800 --> 00:33:58,000
There are different institutions
cannot align together on how to 

510
00:33:58,000 --> 00:34:01,480
respond to the Americans in 
Israel, so they just sat back 

511
00:34:01,480 --> 00:34:02,720
and wait to be attacked. 
OK. 

512
00:34:03,600 --> 00:34:09,159
All right. 
Why don't Asian and middle? 

513
00:34:09,159 --> 00:34:13,120
Eastern nations unite to prevent
American interference driven by 

514
00:34:13,120 --> 00:34:18,239
its own interests. 
OK, Yeah, OK. 

515
00:34:18,239 --> 00:34:20,679
Another misconception is that 
the nation state. 

516
00:34:24,159 --> 00:34:26,199
It is real. 
It is not real. 

517
00:34:26,920 --> 00:34:29,760
It's just a made-up concept, OK,
the idea of China, the idea of 

518
00:34:29,760 --> 00:34:31,920
America, the idea of Russia, 
Iran, they're all made-up 

519
00:34:31,920 --> 00:34:33,120
concepts. 
They don't exist. 

520
00:34:33,639 --> 00:34:37,520
What these nation states are, 
are collection of interests. 

521
00:34:41,199 --> 00:34:43,120
Collection of elite. 
Interests. 

522
00:34:45,639 --> 00:34:49,400
And all this means is that. 
The people don't matter, OK? 

523
00:34:49,400 --> 00:34:52,040
The people are resource to be 
exploited by the elite. 

524
00:34:52,199 --> 00:34:56,280
What matters is the elite. 
So the question then is where 

525
00:34:56,280 --> 00:34:58,760
are the elite? 
Where are their allegiances? 

526
00:34:59,280 --> 00:35:01,680
Where are their loyalties? 
And the fact of the matter is 

527
00:35:01,680 --> 00:35:05,560
that in East Asia, in the Middle
East, much of the elite have 

528
00:35:05,560 --> 00:35:12,000
their family and have their 
wealth all stored in the Western

529
00:35:12,000 --> 00:35:15,280
world. 
So they're not loyal to the 

530
00:35:15,280 --> 00:35:17,360
people, they are never loyal to 
the people. 

531
00:35:17,480 --> 00:35:21,120
They are loyal to themselves, to
their families, to their, to 

532
00:35:21,120 --> 00:35:25,200
their social network. 
And because all of their wealth 

533
00:35:25,240 --> 00:35:29,280
and family is located overseas, 
they're loyal to overseas. 

534
00:35:29,560 --> 00:35:33,880
So these elite in Asia, in the 
Middle East, they are basically 

535
00:35:33,880 --> 00:35:38,360
cover baggers, OK. 
And, and, and that's why we have

536
00:35:38,480 --> 00:35:42,920
this situation. 
And that's why as things 

537
00:35:42,920 --> 00:35:46,160
progress, nations that have very
close relationships with the 

538
00:35:46,160 --> 00:35:51,280
Western world, for example the 
GCC, they are much likely to 

539
00:35:51,280 --> 00:35:53,360
fall, they're much likely to 
collapse. 

540
00:35:53,480 --> 00:35:56,840
These are these are our unstable
countries, whereas countries 

541
00:35:56,840 --> 00:36:00,360
like Iran that have been 
isolated, ostracized by the West

542
00:36:00,480 --> 00:36:13,640
are much more cohesive, OK. 
All right, can the Strait of 

543
00:36:13,640 --> 00:36:15,400
Hormuz? 
Be avoided by laying gaps? 

544
00:36:15,400 --> 00:36:18,400
Pipe through Oman? 
No, no, that's not how these 

545
00:36:18,400 --> 00:36:19,480
things work. 
OK. 

546
00:36:19,960 --> 00:36:24,880
What Iran is doing is using the 
Strait of Hormuz to blockade the

547
00:36:24,880 --> 00:36:27,040
global economy, to disrupt the 
global economy. 

548
00:36:27,040 --> 00:36:30,240
The Strait of Hormuz is the most
convenient way of doing so. 

549
00:36:30,520 --> 00:36:35,320
It's the least controversial. 
But if forced to, Iran can also 

550
00:36:35,320 --> 00:36:40,120
destroy any energy production in
the GCC. 

551
00:36:40,280 --> 00:36:45,960
It can destroy the pipelines. 
If a drone can attack a city, it

552
00:36:45,960 --> 00:36:48,960
can attack a pipeline as well. 
OK, so these pipelines are 

553
00:36:48,960 --> 00:36:51,120
extremely vulnerable. 
And and already we're seeing 

554
00:36:51,120 --> 00:36:56,080
reporting that just yesterday 
the Iranians attacked a pipeline

555
00:36:56,080 --> 00:36:57,960
in Saudi Arabia. 
These pipelines are extremely 

556
00:36:57,960 --> 00:37:00,000
vulnerable. 
Just think about all this gas 

557
00:37:00,240 --> 00:37:02,560
and oil, right? 
It's all combustible. 

558
00:37:02,880 --> 00:37:06,600
So a drone can just blow it up. 
It's not hard, right? 

559
00:37:06,600 --> 00:37:10,480
So again, understand the point 
is not the sort of Hormuz, the 

560
00:37:10,480 --> 00:37:13,920
point is the vulnerability and 
the fragility of the global 

561
00:37:13,920 --> 00:37:17,640
economy that is completely 
dependent on cheap access to 

562
00:37:17,640 --> 00:37:19,840
energy. 
That's where the problem lies. 

563
00:37:20,480 --> 00:37:29,560
All right, all right, Donald 
Trump, he's erratic. 

564
00:37:30,440 --> 00:37:34,640
Do you believe this behaviour is
calculated strategy or does it 

565
00:37:34,640 --> 00:37:37,160
stem from lack of understanding?
Is he stupid? 

566
00:37:38,840 --> 00:37:40,280
Do you think that people 
advising. 

567
00:37:40,280 --> 00:37:43,120
Him are also stupid or are they 
strategic? 

568
00:37:44,320 --> 00:37:50,200
What is he trying to achieve? 
OK, again, this goes back to our

569
00:37:50,200 --> 00:37:51,680
understanding of how the world 
works. 

570
00:37:51,680 --> 00:37:54,240
You have the eschatology, then 
you have the societies, then you

571
00:37:54,240 --> 00:37:56,280
have the agents. 
OK, And Trump is an agent. 

572
00:37:57,000 --> 00:38:01,520
Now, what makes him a very 
powerful agent is his 

573
00:38:02,000 --> 00:38:08,680
unpredictability. 
Today he's like, I'm going to 

574
00:38:08,680 --> 00:38:10,280
nuke. 
Iran tomorrow, he's like, let's 

575
00:38:10,280 --> 00:38:11,880
have peace in the world, guys, 
OK? 

576
00:38:11,880 --> 00:38:16,080
He's just unpredictable. 
It's all a show, OK? 

577
00:38:16,280 --> 00:38:19,560
And there are three reasons why 
unpredictability is so powerful.

578
00:38:19,920 --> 00:38:25,560
The first reason is that it's 
paralyzing. 

579
00:38:27,520 --> 00:38:30,160
Paralyzing just means like you. 
Don't know how to respond to 

580
00:38:30,160 --> 00:38:33,800
him. 
Like what do you do to how do 

581
00:38:33,800 --> 00:38:37,360
you fight a guy who changes his 
his opinion every single day? 

582
00:38:38,120 --> 00:38:43,240
OK, he paralyzes you into into 
inaction. 

583
00:38:43,560 --> 00:38:48,760
Second, is distracting. 
You all your attention. 

584
00:38:48,760 --> 00:38:52,520
Is focus on his antics and you 
don't realize that behind the 

585
00:38:52,520 --> 00:38:56,160
scenes things are happening, OK?
There are people who are 

586
00:38:56,160 --> 00:38:58,480
implementing certain things, but
you don't really notice the 

587
00:38:58,480 --> 00:39:01,800
backstage because you have just 
focused on Trump being a clown 

588
00:39:01,800 --> 00:39:05,880
on stage, OK. 
And the last advantage is 

589
00:39:05,920 --> 00:39:10,320
flexibility. 
Which is say that. 

590
00:39:10,320 --> 00:39:16,880
He is not beholden to any 
strategy, and he can change his 

591
00:39:16,880 --> 00:39:21,160
strategy at any time. 
OK, So yes, we think he's a 

592
00:39:21,160 --> 00:39:25,840
clown, and he is a clown, but 
there's a method to his madness,

593
00:39:25,840 --> 00:39:28,640
OK? 
So it paralyzes his enemies, it 

594
00:39:28,640 --> 00:39:32,160
distracts his enemies, and he's 
able to maintain maximum 

595
00:39:32,160 --> 00:39:34,680
flexibility in his actions. 
OK. 

596
00:39:34,760 --> 00:39:36,160
And that's why he's so 
successful. 

597
00:39:37,200 --> 00:39:40,320
All right? 
The people around him just do 

598
00:39:40,320 --> 00:39:44,240
whatever he tells him to. 
People around just tell him, 

599
00:39:44,600 --> 00:39:45,920
tells him exactly what he wants 
to hear. 

600
00:39:45,920 --> 00:39:48,600
OK, It's it's actually Donald 
Trump that's making all the all 

601
00:39:48,600 --> 00:39:52,320
the decisions and it's ultimate 
purpose is to get his third 

602
00:39:52,320 --> 00:39:56,720
term. 
All right, because for a best. 

603
00:39:56,720 --> 00:39:58,560
Perspective. 
He actually wants to implement 

604
00:39:58,560 --> 00:40:02,760
his vision for America. 
He needs the third term OK. 

605
00:40:02,760 --> 00:40:05,880
And again, his vision is a 
technique where America becomes 

606
00:40:05,880 --> 00:40:09,520
a fortress, abandons the world 
and just trades with the world. 

607
00:40:09,880 --> 00:40:11,560
OK, we just, we discussed this 
previously. 

608
00:40:11,840 --> 00:40:14,640
But for him, for him to achieve 
that, he needs his third term. 

609
00:40:15,440 --> 00:40:18,800
And so he needs to figure out 
how to get his third term. 

610
00:40:18,880 --> 00:40:22,400
And this war in Iran is about 
strategy because if this war 

611
00:40:22,760 --> 00:40:27,320
continues and it goes badly for 
America, then Trump can declare 

612
00:40:27,320 --> 00:40:29,840
martial law and have a lot of 
powers, OK. 

613
00:40:30,080 --> 00:40:33,760
And again, his enemy, his 
enemies are too distracted to 

614
00:40:33,760 --> 00:40:36,720
appreciate that this is 
strategic and they're paralysed 

615
00:40:36,720 --> 00:40:39,680
into inaction. 
The Democratic Party, which 

616
00:40:39,680 --> 00:40:42,760
should be opposing Trump and 
this war, are just sitting back 

617
00:40:42,760 --> 00:40:46,840
and doing nothing, hoping that 
in the midterms, Trump, Trump's 

618
00:40:46,840 --> 00:40:49,880
party, the Republicans get wiped
out and they get they go into 

619
00:40:49,880 --> 00:40:53,040
power and then the world is 
perfect again. 

620
00:40:53,040 --> 00:40:56,160
OK, so the Democrats actually 
don't have a strategy for this? 

621
00:40:59,240 --> 00:41:05,120
All right. 
The. 

622
00:41:05,520 --> 00:41:09,080
GCC, the petrodollar collapses. 
OK, let's pretend the 

623
00:41:09,080 --> 00:41:13,960
petrodollar collapses. 
AI collapses. 

624
00:41:13,960 --> 00:41:16,640
Treasurer brought by collapses. 
Will the US not suffer an 

625
00:41:16,640 --> 00:41:18,920
economic and development 
catastrophe which is not, which 

626
00:41:18,920 --> 00:41:22,160
is not part of the US plant? 
Yeah, this is a good question. 

627
00:41:22,480 --> 00:41:25,400
But you have to understand, 
again, a nation state is a 

628
00:41:25,400 --> 00:41:27,840
collection of different 
interests, and these interests 

629
00:41:27,840 --> 00:41:29,760
are competing against each 
other, OK? 

630
00:41:29,760 --> 00:41:33,960
So you have different interest 
groups, you have AI, you have 

631
00:41:33,960 --> 00:41:41,200
finance, you have resources, OK.
And So what matters is the 

632
00:41:41,200 --> 00:41:43,720
general direction of the 
country. 

633
00:41:44,280 --> 00:41:47,680
So if the economy were to 
collapse, the main losers would 

634
00:41:47,680 --> 00:41:52,280
be finance and AI, OK, But then 
what America can do because it's

635
00:41:52,280 --> 00:41:55,960
so wealthy and it's people are 
so energetic is well, let's just

636
00:41:55,960 --> 00:41:57,640
focus on building resources, 
okay? 

637
00:41:58,040 --> 00:42:03,640
Oil, food, water, fertilizer. 
Let's just make the stuff and 

638
00:42:03,640 --> 00:42:08,120
sell to the world. 
Then the economy rebounds. 

639
00:42:08,120 --> 00:42:09,680
Okay, So this is actually a 
restructuring. 

640
00:42:12,920 --> 00:42:15,320
Okay, something. 
We talked about before where the

641
00:42:15,320 --> 00:42:17,760
purpose is not to destroy 
America. 

642
00:42:17,960 --> 00:42:22,480
The purpose is to move power 
away from 1 elite to another 

643
00:42:22,480 --> 00:42:23,400
elite. 
Okay, this is basically a 

644
00:42:23,400 --> 00:42:27,040
revolution in America. 
AI can actually be saved okay 

645
00:42:27,680 --> 00:42:31,920
with government bailout. 
And that's what I imagine what 

646
00:42:31,920 --> 00:42:34,160
happened. 
OK, AI in finance, the bubbles 

647
00:42:34,160 --> 00:42:37,120
will burst, finance will be 
allowed to collapse, AI will be 

648
00:42:37,120 --> 00:42:41,280
bailed out because Trump is very
close with these AI overlords 

649
00:42:41,280 --> 00:42:42,640
like Peter Thiel and St. 
Altman. 

650
00:42:43,000 --> 00:42:47,000
And then resources will be 
resource of manufacturing, OK, 

651
00:42:47,240 --> 00:42:50,600
will become the dominant center 
of gravity in the American 

652
00:42:50,600 --> 00:42:53,280
economy. 
OK, so that's a that's a plan. 

653
00:42:53,840 --> 00:42:56,680
I'm not saying this will happen 
exactly like this, but that's 

654
00:42:56,760 --> 00:42:58,760
what they have they they intend 
to happen. 

655
00:42:59,200 --> 00:43:04,360
All right, transnational capital
is a game master. 

656
00:43:06,640 --> 00:43:08,920
Transnational capital will then 
take its money elsewhere if the 

657
00:43:08,920 --> 00:43:12,320
empire collapses. 
So transnational capital 

658
00:43:12,320 --> 00:43:14,360
doesn't. 
Lose any power? 

659
00:43:18,120 --> 00:43:21,600
And they can just bet. 
On different horses, Japan issue

660
00:43:21,600 --> 00:43:25,560
Germany. 
OK. 

661
00:43:25,800 --> 00:43:27,120
Yeah. 
So. 

662
00:43:28,960 --> 00:43:33,840
In my analysis. 
I use abstract terms that are 

663
00:43:33,840 --> 00:43:38,000
not accurate, but some, but are 
useful for simplicity and 

664
00:43:38,000 --> 00:43:39,960
clarity. 
OK, so you're writing that 

665
00:43:39,960 --> 00:43:43,720
transnational capital also have 
competing interests and just 

666
00:43:43,720 --> 00:43:46,560
because the empire empire 
collapses doesn't mean that all 

667
00:43:46,560 --> 00:43:50,520
the money goes to Israel. 
This money will spread out, and 

668
00:43:50,520 --> 00:43:51,520
that's true. 
OK. 

669
00:43:51,800 --> 00:43:54,080
But the point, the point I'm 
trying to make is that first of 

670
00:43:54,080 --> 00:43:56,640
all, most of the money will go 
to Israel. 

671
00:43:57,040 --> 00:43:59,960
Why? 
Because Israel provides the best

672
00:44:00,000 --> 00:44:02,400
short term investment 
opportunities if you're a 

673
00:44:02,400 --> 00:44:05,960
trillionaire, OK, But you're 
right in that other money will 

674
00:44:05,960 --> 00:44:11,120
go to other places as well. 
But again, the best opportunity 

675
00:44:11,120 --> 00:44:14,120
is Israel. 
So you will see the most growth 

676
00:44:14,600 --> 00:44:18,280
in Israel and that's why over 
time more capital will shift 

677
00:44:18,400 --> 00:44:20,640
towards Israel. 
That's how capital works. 

678
00:44:20,920 --> 00:44:24,640
OK, Yes, capital will allocate 
its resources. 

679
00:44:24,640 --> 00:44:28,680
Capital will put its eggs in 
different baskets. 

680
00:44:29,040 --> 00:44:32,040
But ultimately you have to ask 
yourself where is the best 

681
00:44:32,440 --> 00:44:35,400
investment opportunity? 
And in the short term, not in 

682
00:44:35,400 --> 00:44:37,640
the long term, but in the short 
term, it's going to be the 

683
00:44:37,640 --> 00:44:40,000
Middle East. 
OK, All right. 

684
00:44:42,040 --> 00:44:43,600
How do we combat the war against
truth? 

685
00:44:46,080 --> 00:44:49,760
How do we engage in discussion 
that transitional biases? 

686
00:44:50,520 --> 00:44:53,960
OK, we're all we all live in 
fantasies. 

687
00:44:54,160 --> 00:44:57,400
How do we overcome this? 
What techniques do you employ in

688
00:44:57,400 --> 00:44:59,320
your research? 
All right. 

689
00:44:59,360 --> 00:45:04,280
OK. 
So things that I do that I think

690
00:45:04,280 --> 00:45:06,600
are very important is first of 
all a doubt. 

691
00:45:09,080 --> 00:45:11,280
You always want to. 
Question yourself. 

692
00:45:11,440 --> 00:45:14,040
You always want to ask yourself,
am I correct? 

693
00:45:14,200 --> 00:45:17,160
That's why I'm making 
predictions is important because

694
00:45:17,160 --> 00:45:20,360
making predictions, it's 
actually about creating doubt in

695
00:45:20,360 --> 00:45:23,840
yourself because if the projects
are wrong, it's a mechanism for 

696
00:45:23,840 --> 00:45:27,200
you to self reflect and 
appreciate the limitations of 

697
00:45:27,200 --> 00:45:29,600
your model. 
Okay, so that's one strategy. 

698
00:45:29,600 --> 00:45:35,440
Another strategy is the bait. 
OK. 

699
00:45:35,720 --> 00:45:39,400
Where you engage in people who 
think differently than you do. 

700
00:45:39,400 --> 00:45:41,360
And I do that by watching a lot 
of YouTube videos. 

701
00:45:41,680 --> 00:45:47,240
And I try to try to watch people
of different political leanings 

702
00:45:47,480 --> 00:45:50,680
or different viewpoints than I 
because I'm interested in 

703
00:45:50,680 --> 00:45:52,160
hearing their perspective. 
OK. 

704
00:45:52,360 --> 00:45:55,680
So keep an open mind, engage in 
people who disagree with you and

705
00:45:55,680 --> 00:45:58,560
have an honest debate with them 
as well as yourself. 

706
00:45:58,800 --> 00:46:03,120
Now last piece, and this is 
actually something that I do but

707
00:46:03,120 --> 00:46:05,400
most people don't do, is I use 
my imagination. 

708
00:46:10,560 --> 00:46:14,360
And all this means? 
Is I will go places, I will make

709
00:46:14,360 --> 00:46:18,160
certain assumptions that other 
people don't do, OK? 

710
00:46:18,480 --> 00:46:21,200
That that's why I think people 
find me so interesting, because 

711
00:46:21,560 --> 00:46:25,280
I will say things that are 
imaginative, that are 

712
00:46:25,280 --> 00:46:28,640
speculative, but which is not 
backed by any evidence. 

713
00:46:29,000 --> 00:46:33,040
Don't be afraid to do that, OK? 
If you want to seek the truth, 

714
00:46:33,240 --> 00:46:36,960
you have to make some 
imaginative leaps into leaps 

715
00:46:37,120 --> 00:46:41,280
into the unknown in order to 
find the truth, OK? 

716
00:46:41,280 --> 00:46:43,400
The truth is not in front of 
you. 

717
00:46:43,400 --> 00:46:49,000
The truth is often behind you or
far away from you, OK? 

718
00:46:49,000 --> 00:46:51,680
So you need to be you. 
Don't be afraid to just leap 

719
00:46:51,680 --> 00:46:55,200
far, OK? 
Into the unknown, all right? 

720
00:47:00,160 --> 00:47:07,520
All right, let's continue, OK. 
So Asia and Australia are 

721
00:47:07,520 --> 00:47:09,480
suffering the most from this 
global conflict. 

722
00:47:10,080 --> 00:47:16,600
Why are these nations passive? 
Won't these nations intervene? 

723
00:47:18,280 --> 00:47:23,560
OK, again, a lot of this is 
misconception in that everyone 

724
00:47:23,560 --> 00:47:27,400
thinks that the nation states 
are the constituent players in 

725
00:47:27,400 --> 00:47:29,560
this game and the nation states 
are equal. 

726
00:47:29,560 --> 00:47:32,840
They're not equal. 
They're not nation states. 

727
00:47:33,200 --> 00:47:35,760
They're only certain nation 
states that have the capacity to

728
00:47:35,760 --> 00:47:40,120
project force overseas. 
Russia, America, maybe some 

729
00:47:40,120 --> 00:47:45,840
European countries, Australia, 
Asia, and most European 

730
00:47:45,840 --> 00:47:47,560
countries are just vassal 
states. 

731
00:47:47,880 --> 00:47:50,800
They are not capable of playing 
this game. 

732
00:47:50,880 --> 00:47:55,280
They're only capable of obeying.
OK, maybe over time they'll 

733
00:47:55,280 --> 00:47:59,800
change their attitude and 
develop the capacity to play 

734
00:47:59,800 --> 00:48:01,920
this game. 
But you have to remember that 

735
00:48:02,040 --> 00:48:06,560
like the GCC, a lot of these 
European countries, Japan, South

736
00:48:06,560 --> 00:48:10,120
Korea, Malaysia, Indonesia, 
Philippines, they're all Co 

737
00:48:10,120 --> 00:48:13,160
opted by the CIA and these are 
all American National states. 

738
00:48:13,680 --> 00:48:16,960
And so they're not capable of 
acting independently of American

739
00:48:16,960 --> 00:48:20,880
policy. 
There's the illusion that they 

740
00:48:20,880 --> 00:48:23,160
are independent, but they're not
OK. 

741
00:48:23,280 --> 00:48:26,000
And you can tell because of 
their actions in that you're 

742
00:48:26,000 --> 00:48:29,840
actually right in that, OK, 
you're Australia and you don't 

743
00:48:29,840 --> 00:48:33,040
have any more jet fuel, well, 
then you should send your army 

744
00:48:33,040 --> 00:48:37,760
or negotiate with Americans or 
negotiate with Iranians, but 

745
00:48:37,760 --> 00:48:42,240
they're not doing that, OK? 
Japan is in fact negotiating 

746
00:48:42,240 --> 00:48:47,640
with Iran, but Japan is still a 
vassal state of America. 

747
00:48:48,080 --> 00:48:57,160
Pakistan is the mediator for 
this ceasefire talk between 

748
00:48:57,400 --> 00:48:59,440
America and Iran. 
But guess what? 

749
00:48:59,600 --> 00:49:02,040
Pakistan is also just another 
vassal state. 

750
00:49:02,040 --> 00:49:05,600
OK, they pretend, pretend not to
be, But just by their actions, 

751
00:49:05,600 --> 00:49:07,640
you can know that they are in 
fact vassal states. 

752
00:49:08,280 --> 00:49:13,000
All right, OK, civil war breaks 
out. 

753
00:49:13,000 --> 00:49:15,880
Who's going to win? 
Christian nationalist Silicon 

754
00:49:15,880 --> 00:49:18,240
Valley versus the Omont Wall 
Street, a city versus country 

755
00:49:18,240 --> 00:49:19,560
like Catholic. 
Do you believe it will result in

756
00:49:19,560 --> 00:49:21,360
separation of the unit into 
multiple factions? 

757
00:49:22,080 --> 00:49:27,680
OK so if you look at the history
of the Roman Republic, once a 

758
00:49:27,680 --> 00:49:30,680
civil war starts, it almost 
never ends, OK. 

759
00:49:30,680 --> 00:49:33,840
That's just the nature of 
American Society, where America 

760
00:49:33,840 --> 00:49:38,600
is so vast and people are so 
energetic and ambitious that 

761
00:49:38,600 --> 00:49:44,520
once a civil war starts, it's 
very unlikely that it will ever 

762
00:49:44,520 --> 00:49:46,360
stop. 
OK, maybe the maybe the 

763
00:49:46,360 --> 00:49:52,280
intensity will shift over time, 
but you will have civil war for 

764
00:49:52,280 --> 00:49:53,960
the next few 100 years. 
OK. 

765
00:49:54,400 --> 00:49:56,360
And the question then is who 
triumphs? 

766
00:49:56,520 --> 00:49:58,520
OK. 
So if you just use our game 

767
00:49:58,520 --> 00:50:03,320
theory formula, OK of cohesion 
energy. 

768
00:50:04,920 --> 00:50:08,480
And openness. 
And you ask yourself, OK, let's 

769
00:50:08,480 --> 00:50:13,880
just look at American Society 
and ask of which state has. 

770
00:50:13,880 --> 00:50:17,360
All three. 
The answer is Texas, OK. 

771
00:50:19,280 --> 00:50:22,120
And this is pretty clear. 
If you just look at the 50 

772
00:50:22,120 --> 00:50:26,000
States and which state is the 
most dynamic, which is the most 

773
00:50:27,720 --> 00:50:30,760
energetic, the most open minded,
it's going to be Texas, 

774
00:50:31,320 --> 00:50:35,600
California, New York are going 
to suffer in the Civil War, 

775
00:50:35,800 --> 00:50:38,360
though economies will suffer a 
great deal, The Saudis will 

776
00:50:38,360 --> 00:50:40,920
suffer a great deal. 
Texas will emerge as a clear 

777
00:50:41,080 --> 00:50:43,480
winner in any conflict. 
OK. 

778
00:50:44,160 --> 00:50:48,280
And with Texas, you also have 
Christian nationalists. 

779
00:50:59,040 --> 00:51:00,320
And. 
AI. 

780
00:51:00,360 --> 00:51:03,440
OK, Why Christian nationalists? 
Because Christian nationalists. 

781
00:51:03,760 --> 00:51:06,400
It's actually a coherent 
philosophy. 

782
00:51:07,120 --> 00:51:11,320
It's coherent, it has the 
direction, it has a strategy, it

783
00:51:11,320 --> 00:51:14,680
has a purpose, Okay, So I think 
Christian nationalists will also

784
00:51:14,680 --> 00:51:20,680
win out and the AI will win out 
because AI can provide the 

785
00:51:20,680 --> 00:51:24,120
technological support to 
Christian nationalist. 

786
00:51:24,120 --> 00:51:29,880
Okay, So if you are working in 
Texas, if you live in Texas, and

787
00:51:29,880 --> 00:51:33,240
if you work in AI and you're a 
Christian nationalist, well, 

788
00:51:33,240 --> 00:51:36,800
you're going to be a big winner 
of this Civil War, OK? 

789
00:51:37,000 --> 00:51:39,240
I mean, if you if you if you're 
the opposite, OK? 

790
00:51:39,240 --> 00:51:44,280
If you are maybe living in New 
York or California and you work 

791
00:51:44,320 --> 00:51:49,440
and you are maybe an atheist and
you, I don't know, work in arts,

792
00:51:49,440 --> 00:51:51,520
I don't know. 
Well, you're going to be a clear

793
00:51:51,520 --> 00:51:55,920
loser in this war. 
OK, Often these what's called 

794
00:51:55,920 --> 00:52:02,560
professional managerial elite. 
Professional. 

795
00:52:02,560 --> 00:52:05,360
Managerial elite leaving the 
coast. 

796
00:52:05,880 --> 00:52:08,360
These guys are done. 
OK. 

797
00:52:08,640 --> 00:52:12,880
Completely useless, costs too 
much money, contributes nothing 

798
00:52:12,960 --> 00:52:15,000
to society. 
These guys are just done. 

799
00:52:15,920 --> 00:52:18,360
All right. 
All right. 

800
00:52:20,000 --> 00:52:23,040
How does an individual survive 
for what's coming? 

801
00:52:23,800 --> 00:52:28,080
Family and community, guys. 
OK, Forget the fact that you are

802
00:52:28,080 --> 00:52:29,880
an individual. 
Leave that behind. 

803
00:52:30,080 --> 00:52:31,600
You will not survive as an 
individual. 

804
00:52:31,600 --> 00:52:33,960
I don't care how much money you 
have. 

805
00:52:34,200 --> 00:52:38,360
I don't care how prepared you 
are. 

806
00:52:38,600 --> 00:52:40,440
You might have a bad bunker. 
I don't know. 

807
00:52:40,440 --> 00:52:41,320
I don't care. 
OK? 

808
00:52:41,600 --> 00:52:45,120
But you have to focus on family,
community if you are to survive 

809
00:52:45,120 --> 00:52:47,000
the new world. 
All right. 

810
00:52:54,240 --> 00:52:56,600
All right, do. 
You think Iran should have 

811
00:52:56,600 --> 00:53:02,880
nuclear weapons? 
No, the worst thing Iran can do 

812
00:53:02,880 --> 00:53:04,960
at this point is develop a 
nuclear weapon. 

813
00:53:05,760 --> 00:53:07,920
Iran can at most have 10 nuclear
weapons. 

814
00:53:07,920 --> 00:53:11,120
America has 1000. 
There's one way for Iran to lose

815
00:53:11,120 --> 00:53:13,640
this war really quickly, and it 
should threaten America with a 

816
00:53:13,640 --> 00:53:16,520
nuclear weapon, because that 
gives America the certification 

817
00:53:16,960 --> 00:53:22,040
to use its nuclear arsenal. 
OK, But the other problem, and 

818
00:53:22,040 --> 00:53:24,560
this is actually more one 
important problem, is the idea 

819
00:53:24,560 --> 00:53:30,080
of complacency. 
Where if you. 

820
00:53:30,080 --> 00:53:32,960
Think you have nuclear weapons 
or sorry if you have nuclear 

821
00:53:32,960 --> 00:53:34,760
opens, you think you're I'm 
safe, I don't have to worry 

822
00:53:34,760 --> 00:53:38,520
about anything. 
No, no, no. 

823
00:53:39,240 --> 00:53:43,840
It's much better to be creative 
and resilient and open minded. 

824
00:53:44,160 --> 00:53:46,000
OK, so if you don't have nuclear
weapons, you're always under 

825
00:53:46,000 --> 00:53:48,240
threat, right? 
That forces forces your people 

826
00:53:48,240 --> 00:53:52,240
in society to constantly think 
about how to be strategic. 

827
00:53:53,680 --> 00:53:55,760
All right, so nuclear. 
Weapons is a bad thing. 

828
00:53:55,760 --> 00:53:59,120
It's not a good thing all. 
Right. 

829
00:54:00,040 --> 00:54:04,360
Paksudaika, doesn't Saudi Arabia
see that coming? 

830
00:54:04,720 --> 00:54:05,920
Why would they allow that to 
happen? 

831
00:54:06,720 --> 00:54:12,400
Well, because for Saudi Arabia, 
what matters is first defeating 

832
00:54:12,400 --> 00:54:16,840
Iran, because the the strategy 
is I defeat Iran and I'm, I'm 

833
00:54:17,040 --> 00:54:19,240
master of the, of the Muslim 
world. 

834
00:54:19,320 --> 00:54:23,600
So I can unite the, all the 2 
billion Muslims in the world 

835
00:54:23,600 --> 00:54:27,280
behind me to defeat Israel. 
OK, so from a perspective of the

836
00:54:27,280 --> 00:54:32,080
GCC in Saudi Arabia, Iran is a 
much bigger threat than Israel. 

837
00:54:34,200 --> 00:54:38,000
Why hasn't the GC said anything 
about what's happening in 

838
00:54:38,280 --> 00:54:40,960
Palestine and Lebanon? 
The GCC are corrupt vassal 

839
00:54:40,960 --> 00:54:44,280
States of America, all right. 
Just it's not it's not hard. 

840
00:54:44,960 --> 00:54:52,520
These are all run by the CIA. 
If Trump is a trading genius, 

841
00:54:53,240 --> 00:54:55,720
why did offline see insane and 
stupid film mission to steal 

842
00:54:55,960 --> 00:54:59,640
uranium, Uranium, uranium, 
uranium. 

843
00:54:59,640 --> 00:55:02,000
OK, All right, that's a really 
good question. 

844
00:55:02,280 --> 00:55:06,080
And the answer is this. 
Trump is a genius at politics. 

845
00:55:06,520 --> 00:55:10,280
He's a genius at screwing over 
his enemies and accumulating 

846
00:55:10,280 --> 00:55:15,560
power for himself. 
He is not a military genius, OK?

847
00:55:16,760 --> 00:55:21,360
He's a Trump is a genius at 
controlling his face. 

848
00:55:23,520 --> 00:55:26,360
Trump is a genius at being ATV 
star. 

849
00:55:26,360 --> 00:55:29,920
He's not a genius at 
geopolitics, OK? 

850
00:55:29,920 --> 00:55:33,120
These things, these things don't
happen the same, all right? 

851
00:55:34,240 --> 00:55:40,680
How can Israel sustain a global 
empire when the religious 

852
00:55:40,680 --> 00:55:42,960
leaders view the physical 
destruction of those cities as a

853
00:55:42,960 --> 00:55:50,000
spiritual victory? 
OK, it's not that hard to 

854
00:55:50,000 --> 00:55:54,560
rebuild an economy and a city. 
It's not hot, OK? 

855
00:55:54,600 --> 00:55:59,960
What is hard, though, is to 
develop the spiritual cohesion 

856
00:55:59,960 --> 00:56:03,720
of a people, to make them 
believe in something so that 

857
00:56:03,720 --> 00:56:05,080
they're willing to die for it, 
OK? 

858
00:56:05,080 --> 00:56:08,920
That's what matters, right? 
They're showing a city you can 

859
00:56:08,920 --> 00:56:11,000
rebuild in five years time. 
It's not that hard. 

860
00:56:11,400 --> 00:56:12,600
Just hire the Chinese to do it. 
OK? 

861
00:56:13,640 --> 00:56:22,000
Our nuclear taboos. 
Why would they respect a 

862
00:56:22,000 --> 00:56:24,160
rational escalation ladder to 
avoid using nukes? 

863
00:56:24,160 --> 00:56:25,600
OK, that's a really good 
question. 

864
00:56:25,760 --> 00:56:27,760
If these people are religious 
and they're fanatical and 

865
00:56:27,760 --> 00:56:30,760
they're crazy, why do they care 
about nukes? 

866
00:56:31,360 --> 00:56:33,000
And the answer is they don't 
care about nukes. 

867
00:56:33,080 --> 00:56:36,120
They think this world is fake, 
OK, But the problem is that 

868
00:56:36,280 --> 00:56:40,120
nuclear weapons, there are 
institutional constraints and 

869
00:56:40,120 --> 00:56:42,560
restraints on the use of nuclear
weapons. 

870
00:56:42,760 --> 00:56:45,320
OK, so there's this myth that 
Donald Trump can just press one 

871
00:56:45,320 --> 00:56:47,680
bit button and all the nukes 
will go flying. 

872
00:56:47,880 --> 00:56:52,600
That's not how it works, OK? 
There are lots of subtle 

873
00:56:52,840 --> 00:56:56,880
constraints on the president, 
OK? 

874
00:56:56,880 --> 00:57:00,880
He has to go get the nuclear 
football, then someone has to 

875
00:57:00,880 --> 00:57:03,040
open for him, and then he can 
press a button. 

876
00:57:04,200 --> 00:57:08,040
But if people think Donald Trump
is crazy, I guarantee you that 

877
00:57:08,040 --> 00:57:09,680
nuclear football guy is going to
run away. 

878
00:57:10,240 --> 00:57:14,320
OK, There's so many taboos 
against the use of nuclear 

879
00:57:14,320 --> 00:57:16,520
weapons. 
Again, I keep on saying this, 

880
00:57:16,960 --> 00:57:21,360
but if nuclear weapons are used 
in this war, we are completely 

881
00:57:21,360 --> 00:57:24,480
screwed, OK? 
I don't think nuclear weapons 

882
00:57:24,480 --> 00:57:27,680
will be used in this war. 
All right, if master 

883
00:57:27,680 --> 00:57:30,360
organization on the primary 
cause of imperial decay where 

884
00:57:30,360 --> 00:57:32,000
unlimited population unlimited 
land. 

885
00:57:32,000 --> 00:57:34,400
So there's reasons that US 
Technet will succeed. 

886
00:57:36,000 --> 00:57:42,120
OK, All right, look, I I said 
the US technique is the plan. 

887
00:57:42,120 --> 00:57:43,880
I didn't say it would it would 
succeed. 

888
00:57:44,440 --> 00:57:47,840
Yes, I understand America can 
take over all of North America. 

889
00:57:47,840 --> 00:57:50,960
It can occupy Canada, it can 
occupy Mexico, Cuba. 

890
00:57:50,960 --> 00:57:54,040
But when it does that, it's 
going to create a lot of 

891
00:57:54,040 --> 00:57:57,040
insurgencies, it's going to 
create a lot of conflict. 

892
00:57:57,400 --> 00:58:00,720
So it's it will be a dumpster 
fire. 

893
00:58:00,720 --> 00:58:03,480
OK. 
Just because you are able to 

894
00:58:03,480 --> 00:58:06,000
accomplish it doesn't mean you 
should accomplish it, doesn't 

895
00:58:06,000 --> 00:58:07,560
mean it doesn't mean it'll be 
successful. 

896
00:58:08,800 --> 00:58:11,120
Immigration trap. 
Why is conforming the rules and 

897
00:58:11,120 --> 00:58:12,640
working hard consider playing 
the game wrong? 

898
00:58:12,640 --> 00:58:15,800
If high confidence requires 
resilience in the coming era of 

899
00:58:15,800 --> 00:58:24,920
resource, scarcely. 
Look, if the game is fair, you 

900
00:58:24,920 --> 00:58:28,080
want to conform to rules and you
want to work hard. 

901
00:58:28,440 --> 00:58:32,600
But if there's an elite that is 
parasitic, that is rant seeking,

902
00:58:33,440 --> 00:58:38,640
then by working hard, you're 
just transferring your energy to

903
00:58:38,760 --> 00:58:42,360
the elite. 
OK, so before maybe 20 years 

904
00:58:42,360 --> 00:58:44,640
ago, America was a place that 
was very fair. 

905
00:58:44,960 --> 00:58:48,520
And so if you just worked hard 
and play by rules, you would 

906
00:58:48,520 --> 00:58:50,960
succeed. 
This is no longer true where 

907
00:58:50,960 --> 00:58:54,920
it's basically an oligarchy and 
where a few people control all 

908
00:58:54,920 --> 00:59:03,400
the power. 
OK, all right. 

909
00:59:06,640 --> 00:59:08,280
The Rains are growing less 
religious. 

910
00:59:11,480 --> 00:59:16,280
And so as this war becomes, as 
this war continues, the 

911
00:59:16,280 --> 00:59:19,400
framework of Shia Mariam will 
energize Iranians to become more

912
00:59:19,400 --> 00:59:20,800
cohesive. 
And the answer is yes. 

913
00:59:21,280 --> 00:59:25,320
One outcome of this war that we 
should expect is that Iranian 

914
00:59:25,320 --> 00:59:29,000
society becomes much more 
religious, much more fanatical. 

915
00:59:29,560 --> 00:59:31,720
All right. 
And one reason is that the 

916
00:59:31,720 --> 00:59:35,960
Americans are intent on 
destroying Iranian urban centers

917
00:59:35,960 --> 00:59:37,440
like Tehran. 
OK. 

918
00:59:37,440 --> 00:59:39,920
So the Americans and the 
Israelis are bombing railway 

919
00:59:39,920 --> 00:59:44,800
networks that connect Iran, 
Tehran to the countryside. 

920
00:59:44,960 --> 00:59:48,280
And so Tehran might not have 
access to food, which case 

921
00:59:49,520 --> 00:59:51,080
Tehran might disappear as a 
city. 

922
00:59:51,280 --> 00:59:55,480
In that case, when people are in
desperate need, they turn a 

923
00:59:55,480 --> 00:59:58,920
religion astute for comfort, OK?
And then they have this 

924
00:59:58,920 --> 01:00:02,280
ethological drive. 
So yes, we can expect Iran to 

925
01:00:02,280 --> 01:00:04,720
become much more ecological as 
this war continues. 

926
01:00:07,920 --> 01:00:11,240
OK, the US. 
Implements a draft, Generation Z

927
01:00:11,240 --> 01:00:16,680
refuses. 
So you have a civil war then 

928
01:00:16,680 --> 01:00:19,640
Where's the US military going to
get its soldiers? 

929
01:00:21,200 --> 01:00:22,680
OK. 
That's a good question. 

930
01:00:22,920 --> 01:00:24,600
And the answer is illegal 
immigrants. 

931
01:00:24,600 --> 01:00:32,480
OK there. 
Are about 20 million. 

932
01:00:32,480 --> 01:00:37,920
Illegal immigrants in America, 
they can be arrested and they 

933
01:00:37,920 --> 01:00:40,200
can be conscripted. 
OK. 

934
01:00:40,200 --> 01:00:42,120
So that's the solution to this 
problem. 

935
01:00:42,120 --> 01:00:46,840
Because as he points out, young 
people are not going to fight in

936
01:00:46,840 --> 01:00:49,320
this war because it's suicidal. 
All right. 

937
01:00:51,240 --> 01:00:55,480
What? 
If you can make cheap drones OK,

938
01:00:55,720 --> 01:00:59,080
so I so I say you know the way 
to counter cheap drones is with 

939
01:00:59,080 --> 01:01:00,920
a grand invasion. 
But America, America can make 

940
01:01:00,920 --> 01:01:06,080
even cheaper drones than. 
Wouldn't that solve the problem?

941
01:01:10,920 --> 01:01:13,040
And. 
Yeah. 

942
01:01:13,640 --> 01:01:20,880
So the answer is this. 
We become too obsessed with 

943
01:01:20,880 --> 01:01:23,240
technology. 
We think that technology can 

944
01:01:23,240 --> 01:01:27,960
solve all the problems. 
And what you don't understand, 

945
01:01:27,960 --> 01:01:33,160
what people don't appreciate, is
that technology is built on 

946
01:01:33,240 --> 01:01:39,760
people, OK? 
Technology is meant to. 

947
01:01:39,760 --> 01:01:42,360
Complement people to enhance the
skills of people. 

948
01:01:42,520 --> 01:01:45,200
Technology is not designed to 
replace people. 

949
01:01:45,400 --> 01:01:48,080
That's the issue that America is
facing this war, where America 

950
01:01:48,080 --> 01:01:51,400
thinks that by using 
sophisticated air defense, by 

951
01:01:51,400 --> 01:01:56,960
using super carriers, by using 
fighter jets that are stealth, 

952
01:01:57,360 --> 01:02:01,520
we can reduce civil casualties 
and win the war. 

953
01:02:01,600 --> 01:02:03,240
And it's turning out not to be 
the case. 

954
01:02:03,320 --> 01:02:04,960
Why? 
Because people are much more 

955
01:02:04,960 --> 01:02:08,520
creative, much more resilient 
and much more determined than 

956
01:02:08,520 --> 01:02:11,200
technology. 
OK, So if you have a group of 

957
01:02:11,200 --> 01:02:14,320
people together, they're going 
to figure they're always going 

958
01:02:14,480 --> 01:02:16,480
to figure out a way to defeat 
your technology. 

959
01:02:18,920 --> 01:02:20,120
So imagine. 
This. 

960
01:02:20,120 --> 01:02:24,320
OK, you build a robot and this 
robot is invincible. 

961
01:02:25,240 --> 01:02:30,480
Lots of machine guns. 
Night time vision, 260 vision. 

962
01:02:30,480 --> 01:02:35,360
OK, if I fight this robot one to
one, I'm dead, right? 

963
01:02:35,720 --> 01:02:37,760
But I'm a human being. 
I'm not stupid. 

964
01:02:37,760 --> 01:02:39,920
So what I'm going to do is I'm 
going to lure this robot into a 

965
01:02:39,920 --> 01:02:43,720
dark forest or a cave where the 
robot's going to stumble and 

966
01:02:43,720 --> 01:02:47,880
where I can maybe for a rock or 
pour water on it. 

967
01:02:47,880 --> 01:02:54,440
OK, but. 
But because technology it's 

968
01:02:54,440 --> 01:02:58,160
static. 
People are dynamic and. 

969
01:02:58,160 --> 01:03:04,000
Creative, OK and spontaneous. 
So that's what makes people. 

970
01:03:04,000 --> 01:03:07,840
People so wonderful because we 
humans, we're dynamic, we're 

971
01:03:07,840 --> 01:03:11,600
creative, we're spontaneous, 
we're not afraid to die for what

972
01:03:11,600 --> 01:03:14,840
we believe in. 
A robot is just going to do what

973
01:03:14,840 --> 01:03:17,480
a robot's going to do. 
So it's completely predictable. 

974
01:03:17,600 --> 01:03:21,280
We are not predictable, OK? 
That's why if you insist on 

975
01:03:21,280 --> 01:03:25,800
using technology and drones as 
your main military strategy, you

976
01:03:25,800 --> 01:03:29,120
will lose this war. 
You have to commit your people 

977
01:03:29,640 --> 01:03:31,560
to Total War. 
You have to find people who are 

978
01:03:31,560 --> 01:03:34,480
willing to die for what they 
believe in, and then you'll win 

979
01:03:34,480 --> 01:03:36,080
this war. 
And that's why I believe that 

980
01:03:36,080 --> 01:03:39,520
ultimately America will lose 
this war in Iran because the 

981
01:03:39,520 --> 01:03:41,680
American people don't have the 
global will to fight this war. 

982
01:03:41,880 --> 01:03:44,160
I don't care how much money you 
put in this war. 

983
01:03:44,160 --> 01:03:46,120
You're going to spend 100 and 
trillion dollars. 

984
01:03:46,120 --> 01:03:47,800
I don't care. 
I don't care how much technology

985
01:03:47,800 --> 01:03:49,280
you have. 
You're still going to lose this 

986
01:03:49,280 --> 01:03:52,920
war unless you're able to 
galvanized the patriotism and 

987
01:03:52,920 --> 01:03:54,840
global will of your people. 
OK. 

988
01:03:57,320 --> 01:04:05,880
All right. 
Is will be humbled? 

989
01:04:07,840 --> 01:04:09,440
Doesn't that change Packs 
Judaica? 

990
01:04:09,720 --> 01:04:14,440
OK, all right. 
OK, so packs Judaica and Israel 

991
01:04:14,440 --> 01:04:18,680
are not the same thing. 
Packs Judaica is a. 

992
01:04:18,680 --> 01:04:21,960
Project of transnational 
capital. 

993
01:04:22,400 --> 01:04:27,840
So think of Israel as the host, 
Paksudaika as the parasite, OK? 

994
01:04:27,840 --> 01:04:30,800
And the same thing happened in 
America, where at the end of the

995
01:04:30,800 --> 01:04:34,240
19th century you have all the 
trinational capital coming into 

996
01:04:34,240 --> 01:04:40,080
America for Wall Street and for 
manufacturing the economy. 

997
01:04:40,200 --> 01:04:43,400
They were able to control 
America for the Federal Reserve.

998
01:04:43,400 --> 01:04:46,960
OK, So trinational capital is 
the parasite, America is the 

999
01:04:46,960 --> 01:04:49,360
host. 
So in this situation, Israel is 

1000
01:04:49,360 --> 01:04:53,680
the host and Patrick will be the
parasite or transnational 

1001
01:04:53,680 --> 01:04:56,280
capital, OK? 
So it doesn't matter what 

1002
01:04:56,280 --> 01:05:00,280
happens to Israel, they can bomb
Israel to Smith Marines, doesn't

1003
01:05:00,280 --> 01:05:02,680
matter who cares? 
Because transnational capital 

1004
01:05:02,720 --> 01:05:08,920
can come into the region, hire 
Chinese, Filipinos, Indians to 

1005
01:05:08,920 --> 01:05:11,400
rebuild Israel. 
OK. 

1006
01:05:14,280 --> 01:05:16,360
Is the war going to transfer the
transfer? 

1007
01:05:16,760 --> 01:05:19,680
Transfer wealth from the old to 
the young in the US or worsen 

1008
01:05:19,680 --> 01:05:20,320
it? 
OK. 

1009
01:05:20,520 --> 01:05:21,920
Yeah. 
This is an excellent question. 

1010
01:05:22,480 --> 01:05:25,720
This is a really a key question 
if you really understand 

1011
01:05:25,720 --> 01:05:28,720
geopolitics. 
The answer is as this war 

1012
01:05:28,720 --> 01:05:35,520
continues, as chaos continues 
throughout the world, more money

1013
01:05:35,680 --> 01:05:41,040
will be transferred to the old 
than to the young, OK? 

1014
01:05:41,240 --> 01:05:43,680
So all this inequality is this 
generation of inequality that 

1015
01:05:43,680 --> 01:05:45,760
we're seeing in America will 
worsen. 

1016
01:05:46,520 --> 01:05:50,160
And the reason why is that in a 
time of chaos, in a time of 

1017
01:05:50,160 --> 01:05:59,800
conflict, OK, capital always 
triumphs, OK? 

1018
01:06:00,000 --> 01:06:08,480
The reason why is that capital 
is able to foresee risk, to 

1019
01:06:10,160 --> 01:06:13,720
distribute risk properly and 
take advantage of risk. 

1020
01:06:14,560 --> 01:06:18,360
OK, If I have trillion dollars, 
it's almost impossible for me to

1021
01:06:18,360 --> 01:06:22,640
lose my money and I can make 
more money, OK? 

1022
01:06:22,640 --> 01:06:25,720
So imagine a situation where, 
OK, I have a twin dollars, I'll 

1023
01:06:25,720 --> 01:06:29,600
invest a billion in America, a 
billion in Iran, a billion in 

1024
01:06:29,600 --> 01:06:31,440
Israel. 
I can't possibly lose this war, 

1025
01:06:31,920 --> 01:06:35,320
OK, but you have like $1000. 
I guarantee you you're going to 

1026
01:06:35,320 --> 01:06:37,640
lose all your money. 
And the reality right now is 

1027
01:06:37,640 --> 01:06:42,320
that the old, not all the old, 
but a minority of the old, the 

1028
01:06:42,320 --> 01:06:45,160
anarchy, have all the capital 
and the young have nothing, OK? 

1029
01:06:45,680 --> 01:06:49,320
So it's the young will give up 
all their money to the old, and 

1030
01:06:49,320 --> 01:06:53,840
the young will be asked to die 
in the Middle East so that the 

1031
01:06:53,840 --> 01:06:56,400
old can maintain their power, 
OK. 

1032
01:06:56,520 --> 01:06:59,200
And that's a historical pattern 
A. 

1033
01:07:01,600 --> 01:07:02,840
ICE. 
OK, Civil. 

1034
01:07:02,840 --> 01:07:06,560
War, AI, Republicans, finance, 
Democrats. 

1035
01:07:10,920 --> 01:07:17,360
Okay, absolutely correct in that
these categories are not that 

1036
01:07:17,360 --> 01:07:20,520
simple. 
It's a very fluid situation 

1037
01:07:20,520 --> 01:07:23,360
where AI is going to bet on both
Democrats and Republicans. 

1038
01:07:23,520 --> 01:07:27,760
Finance is going to bet both on 
Republicans and Democrats. 

1039
01:07:28,160 --> 01:07:32,840
But for the sake of my analysis,
I create these categories so 

1040
01:07:32,840 --> 01:07:34,560
that I can project into the 
future. 

1041
01:07:34,560 --> 01:07:36,400
I can extrapolate into the 
future, but you're actually 

1042
01:07:36,400 --> 01:07:38,200
writing that these categories 
are problematic. 

1043
01:07:38,200 --> 01:07:50,840
OK All right. 
America's plan is to weaken the 

1044
01:07:50,840 --> 01:07:55,800
global economy by letting the 
war drag on if the US wants. 

1045
01:07:56,000 --> 01:07:57,800
If Iran wants the US to leave, 
why? 

1046
01:07:57,800 --> 01:07:59,320
How can the issue will still 
achieve its plan? 

1047
01:08:01,920 --> 01:08:07,040
OK, first question Is America 
trying to slowly weaken the 

1048
01:08:07,080 --> 01:08:09,560
economy by letting the war drag 
on? 

1049
01:08:10,120 --> 01:08:14,120
And the answer is it's not 
intentional, but it's a 

1050
01:08:14,120 --> 01:08:18,279
consequence, meaning America can
suffer the consequence of the 

1051
01:08:18,279 --> 01:08:20,319
collapse of the global economy 
because America is 

1052
01:08:20,319 --> 01:08:23,960
self-sufficient and it can it 
can always retreat back into its

1053
01:08:23,960 --> 01:08:26,560
fortress. 
It's the global economy that 

1054
01:08:26,560 --> 01:08:29,479
will that will suffer. 
So it will seem in hindsight 

1055
01:08:29,640 --> 01:08:32,560
that America had this planet all
along, when in reality it's just

1056
01:08:32,560 --> 01:08:35,840
because no matter what America 
does, it always wins. 

1057
01:08:36,359 --> 01:08:38,120
OK. 
That's the benefit of being 

1058
01:08:38,120 --> 01:08:40,279
America. 
No matter what you what happens,

1059
01:08:40,279 --> 01:08:45,680
you always win. 
Iran wants US to leave, but then

1060
01:08:45,680 --> 01:08:48,800
how can Israel achieve the 
greater issue project? 

1061
01:08:48,800 --> 01:08:51,920
And the answer is Israel will 
not let the US leave. 

1062
01:08:51,920 --> 01:08:57,439
OK, I I mean, Israel right now 
is the parasite. 

1063
01:08:57,520 --> 01:09:00,520
US is is the host. 
Once US leaves, issue will 

1064
01:09:00,520 --> 01:09:03,680
become the host parasite data 
transnational capital becomes 

1065
01:09:03,680 --> 01:09:05,560
the parasite. 
OK, so there's no way the US is 

1066
01:09:05,560 --> 01:09:12,880
going to leave the GCC region 
Well, to exist our hold. 

1067
01:09:15,680 --> 01:09:18,920
No. 
OK, no, forget the ceasefire. 

1068
01:09:18,960 --> 01:09:22,319
It's all theatre. 
And like, think about who's who 

1069
01:09:22,319 --> 01:09:26,040
is negotiating A ceasefire. 
You have your Kushner and you 

1070
01:09:26,040 --> 01:09:30,359
have Steve Witkov, the same two 
guys that screw up the 

1071
01:09:30,479 --> 01:09:33,120
negotiations which led to this 
war in Oman. 

1072
01:09:33,120 --> 01:09:36,279
OK, And then where where is this
taking place? 

1073
01:09:36,279 --> 01:09:39,840
It's taking place in Pakistan, 
which is a vassal state of the 

1074
01:09:39,840 --> 01:09:41,439
United States. 
So these negotiations will go 

1075
01:09:41,439 --> 01:09:45,680
nowhere, all right. 
How do you fit variables? 

1076
01:09:45,680 --> 01:09:49,319
And general human inputtable in 
your game theory model. 

1077
01:09:51,800 --> 01:09:52,960
Yeah, that's a really good 
question. 

1078
01:09:53,000 --> 01:09:54,400
And the answer is I don't use 
math. 

1079
01:09:56,200 --> 01:10:01,040
It's impossible to model random 
human behavior. 

1080
01:10:01,560 --> 01:10:04,000
It's just impossible. 
Maybe maybe if I had like a 

1081
01:10:04,000 --> 01:10:05,920
million years of data, I could 
do that. 

1082
01:10:05,920 --> 01:10:08,320
But I can't do that. 
I have like a few 100 years of 

1083
01:10:08,320 --> 01:10:09,960
data. 
So I don't even use math. 

1084
01:10:10,200 --> 01:10:12,200
I know it's game theory. 
I know I know supposed to use 

1085
01:10:12,200 --> 01:10:14,760
math, but but I'll be 
constrained by math. 

1086
01:10:14,800 --> 01:10:17,200
OK. 
So I use a lot of intuition. 

1087
01:10:17,400 --> 01:10:20,400
I use a lot of doubt. 
I use a lot of debate. 

1088
01:10:20,560 --> 01:10:23,000
OK, So doubt, debate, 
imagination. 

1089
01:10:24,080 --> 01:10:28,960
How would Israel wait? 
OK so Israel is a prize state, 

1090
01:10:29,440 --> 01:10:34,120
how can I achieve pashudeka? 
OK OK so this is confusing for 

1091
01:10:34,120 --> 01:10:40,000
people but like public opinion 
does not matter in geopolitics. 

1092
01:10:41,480 --> 01:10:46,680
Rome was this genocidal state, 
no one cared. 

1093
01:10:46,680 --> 01:10:50,440
It didn't care, it still became 
the empire, lasted for 1000 

1094
01:10:50,440 --> 01:10:52,560
years. 
OK, even today we still worship 

1095
01:10:52,560 --> 01:10:54,720
Rome. 
The Aztecs were known for human 

1096
01:10:54,720 --> 01:10:56,080
sacrifice. 
Didn't matter. 

1097
01:10:56,080 --> 01:10:58,880
They still became the Empire of 
Mexico. 

1098
01:10:59,640 --> 01:11:03,280
The British, the British, They 
created all these wars in 

1099
01:11:03,280 --> 01:11:05,640
Europe. 
They enslaved the Indian 

1100
01:11:05,640 --> 01:11:10,280
population and destroyed the 
economy and stole tranzols from 

1101
01:11:10,280 --> 01:11:13,560
them. 
They addicted Chinese to opium. 

1102
01:11:14,440 --> 01:11:17,440
Do we ever talk about this? 
I mean, like, if we had opium 

1103
01:11:17,440 --> 01:11:20,440
poll back in the 1850s, I think 
most of the world would be like 

1104
01:11:20,560 --> 01:11:24,080
the British Empire's evil, the 
genocidal. 

1105
01:11:25,760 --> 01:11:27,560
We still watch the British 
Empire today. 

1106
01:11:27,920 --> 01:11:29,960
OK? 
So public opinion does not 

1107
01:11:29,960 --> 01:11:33,240
matter. 
We've come to this delusion that

1108
01:11:33,320 --> 01:11:35,360
our opinions matter in 
geopolitics. 

1109
01:11:35,360 --> 01:11:36,800
It doesn't matter in 
geopolitics. 

1110
01:11:36,920 --> 01:11:39,280
What matters is power. 
OK? 

1111
01:11:46,480 --> 01:11:48,400
Oh, that's it guys. 
Wow. 

1112
01:11:48,640 --> 01:11:49,720
Oh, wow. 
OK. 

1113
01:11:50,800 --> 01:11:52,400
All right. 
We did it guys. 

1114
01:11:52,520 --> 01:11:55,040
We we we did the midterm. 
OK. 

1115
01:11:55,040 --> 01:11:58,360
So hopefully I did well on this 
midterm. 

1116
01:11:58,720 --> 01:12:00,840
We're also we'll also have a 
final examination. 

1117
01:12:01,520 --> 01:12:05,400
So I look forward to that. 
But thank you for the questions.

1118
01:12:05,840 --> 01:12:09,840
And we will take a one week 
break next week and we'll come 

1119
01:12:09,840 --> 01:12:16,160
back and continue game theory 
and our analysis of the US Iran 

1120
01:12:16,160 --> 01:12:25,280
war. 
So any questions so OK, so I 

1121
01:12:25,280 --> 01:12:28,840
have like. 2 main questions and 
Vincent also sent me some 

1122
01:12:29,720 --> 01:12:35,960
obvious questions like. 
So my first question is about 

1123
01:12:36,000 --> 01:12:39,560
the global economy. 
Like in one previous discussion,

1124
01:12:39,560 --> 01:12:42,720
you argued that the US centric 
global economy system would 

1125
01:12:42,720 --> 01:12:45,280
collapse after the Iraq war, 
leading to the. 

1126
01:12:45,480 --> 01:12:48,560
Reminiscerization. 
Of virus nations and severely 

1127
01:12:48,560 --> 01:12:50,840
disruptive disrupting the global
trade. 

1128
01:12:51,440 --> 01:12:57,840
However, why a new like global 
economic system created one or a

1129
01:12:57,840 --> 01:13:02,640
few countries will not be will 
not like emerge because even 

1130
01:13:02,640 --> 01:13:06,280
though the system should would 
inevitably create significant 

1131
01:13:06,360 --> 01:13:10,120
inequality among the countries, 
it would still bring substantial

1132
01:13:10,120 --> 01:13:13,200
wealth and economy, economic 
benefits to participating 

1133
01:13:13,240 --> 01:13:17,160
nations. 
Why create modern, which I think

1134
01:13:17,160 --> 01:13:19,400
will create motivation for these
country building. 

1135
01:13:19,400 --> 01:13:23,080
OK yeah. 
And historically, after the age 

1136
01:13:23,120 --> 01:13:26,920
of explorations, I think the 
class of each imperial systems 

1137
01:13:26,920 --> 01:13:29,600
lead to the rise of the new 
empires. 

1138
01:13:29,600 --> 01:13:32,440
For example, the Spanish 
Maritimes collapse and the 

1139
01:13:32,440 --> 01:13:34,360
British Empire gradually 
replaced. 

1140
01:13:34,560 --> 01:13:38,320
And after the World War One and 
Two, the American became the 

1141
01:13:38,320 --> 01:13:43,560
empire and that replaced the 
British like, So why won't this 

1142
01:13:43,560 --> 01:13:44,760
happen again? 
OK. 

1143
01:13:45,640 --> 01:13:46,960
OK. 
So the basis of the of the 

1144
01:13:46,960 --> 01:13:51,360
global economy is the US dollar.
OK, So what is the US dollar? 

1145
01:13:51,400 --> 01:13:54,480
The US dollar is basically a 
contract system. 

1146
01:13:57,480 --> 01:14:00,680
OK, so when I use. 
U.S. dollar, basically it's a 

1147
01:14:00,680 --> 01:14:05,520
contract that our trade will be 
honoured. 

1148
01:14:05,520 --> 01:14:08,840
OK, right. 
But with a contract system, you 

1149
01:14:08,840 --> 01:14:10,840
also need need an enforcement 
mechanism. 

1150
01:14:16,520 --> 01:14:22,400
OK. 
Meaning, look, if you don't, if 

1151
01:14:22,400 --> 01:14:26,160
you don't honor the contract, 
then someone has to come beat 

1152
01:14:26,160 --> 01:14:28,960
you up, right? 
Otherwise you'll just ignore the

1153
01:14:28,960 --> 01:14:31,800
contract. 
So that's what the US military 

1154
01:14:31,800 --> 01:14:41,200
is for, all right? 
Now there's some problems with 

1155
01:14:41,200 --> 01:14:44,360
the system. 
The first problem is that it's 

1156
01:14:44,360 --> 01:14:49,080
actually very costly to create. 
A contract system. 

1157
01:14:49,320 --> 01:14:53,040
OK, Why? 
Because you're absorbing all the

1158
01:14:53,040 --> 01:14:57,480
risk. 
OK, So you're the US economy. 

1159
01:14:57,680 --> 01:15:01,960
You print U.S. dollars to enable
the world to trade with each 

1160
01:15:01,960 --> 01:15:04,880
other, OK. 
But when you do that, you are 

1161
01:15:04,880 --> 01:15:08,440
collecting a tax. 
But at the same time, it's 

1162
01:15:08,440 --> 01:15:14,640
putting tremendous strain on 
your economy, OK, because this 

1163
01:15:14,640 --> 01:15:16,760
leads to finance 
financialization. 

1164
01:15:19,760 --> 01:15:21,480
Which is just risk. 
And speculation. 

1165
01:15:25,960 --> 01:15:30,200
OK, so all this access money is 
being created around the world, 

1166
01:15:30,200 --> 01:15:33,880
and you have to absorb it into 
your economy, which causes 

1167
01:15:33,880 --> 01:15:37,280
inflation, which causes things 
to be unaffordable to your 

1168
01:15:37,280 --> 01:15:39,480
people. 
All right, So that's the first 

1169
01:15:39,480 --> 01:15:42,520
problem. 
OK, It's really expensive on the

1170
01:15:42,520 --> 01:15:46,000
population. 
The population in America must 

1171
01:15:46,000 --> 01:15:50,560
absorb the cost of excess 
liquidity in the world. 

1172
01:15:50,880 --> 01:15:54,000
OK, Does that make sense? 
OK, The second problem is the 

1173
01:15:54,000 --> 01:15:58,040
military. 
The military must be willing to 

1174
01:15:58,040 --> 01:16:02,480
fight any wars around the world 
at any time. 

1175
01:16:03,760 --> 01:16:07,320
OK, so the question then is, are
there, is there any nation in 

1176
01:16:07,320 --> 01:16:12,160
the world besides America that's
one willing to absorb the cost 

1177
01:16:12,360 --> 01:16:15,360
of creating a contract system 
being the global reserve 

1178
01:16:15,360 --> 01:16:21,240
currency and #2 that's willing 
to fight a war to enforce this 

1179
01:16:21,240 --> 01:16:24,360
mechanism anytime, anywhere in 
the world? 

1180
01:16:24,880 --> 01:16:31,720
And the answer is no, Hell no. 
OK, this system is retarded. 

1181
01:16:33,400 --> 01:16:35,880
It is unbelievable that America.
Agreed to the system in the 1st 

1182
01:16:35,880 --> 01:16:39,520
place and, and most Americans 
would say, well, we just got 

1183
01:16:39,520 --> 01:16:42,120
stuck with this system and 
certain people benefited from 

1184
01:16:42,120 --> 01:16:44,160
the system, but most people 
don't actually benefit from the 

1185
01:16:44,160 --> 01:16:46,280
system. 
So the idea that anyone that's 

1186
01:16:46,280 --> 01:16:48,680
going to come and say, oh, you 
know, we'll just take over the 

1187
01:16:48,680 --> 01:16:52,600
system, whether it be Russia or 
China, that's just retarded. 

1188
01:16:52,600 --> 01:16:55,160
OK, no one's going to, no one's 
going to replace America. 

1189
01:16:55,360 --> 01:16:58,960
So the global economy is going 
to fracture because again, no 

1190
01:16:58,960 --> 01:17:02,880
one's willing to to accept the 
cost to be the global reserve 

1191
01:17:02,880 --> 01:17:04,160
currency. 
It's just too expensive. 

1192
01:17:04,160 --> 01:17:06,080
Right? 
Does that make sense? 

1193
01:17:06,080 --> 01:17:07,240
Yeah. 
OK. 

1194
01:17:07,240 --> 01:17:12,800
But so. 
Why cannot like some regional 

1195
01:17:12,800 --> 01:17:16,240
powerful country like Japan and 
German as you mentioned before 

1196
01:17:16,440 --> 01:17:21,160
or American like they form into 
a group that will together build

1197
01:17:21,200 --> 01:17:26,720
a global economic systems? 
Because. 

1198
01:17:27,120 --> 01:17:33,920
Ultimately you have to resolve 
the issue of benefit. 

1199
01:17:33,920 --> 01:17:36,480
OK. 
OK. 

1200
01:17:37,320 --> 01:17:39,240
Like we have to negotiate who 
benefits. 

1201
01:17:41,280 --> 01:17:44,480
OK, it doesn't make sense. 
And it's hard for nation states 

1202
01:17:44,480 --> 01:17:47,240
to figure that out. 
It's much easier to have an 

1203
01:17:47,240 --> 01:17:49,040
empire. 
It's much easier for me to 

1204
01:17:49,040 --> 01:17:52,480
impose my power onto you, but 
for us to, like, work together 

1205
01:17:52,480 --> 01:17:55,800
peacefully, maybe for a couple 
of years, OK. 

1206
01:17:56,000 --> 01:17:59,160
But it's very unsustainable, 
right? 

1207
01:17:59,800 --> 01:18:01,640
Because why? 
Because of domestic concerns, 

1208
01:18:01,920 --> 01:18:05,680
Because your population will 
want to maximize the benefit 

1209
01:18:05,680 --> 01:18:10,440
from this relationship, OK. 
And. 

1210
01:18:11,200 --> 01:18:17,880
So my second question is about 
the the, the, the value of the, 

1211
01:18:18,480 --> 01:18:22,720
the culture of the world. 
As we discussed before, this 

1212
01:18:22,720 --> 01:18:26,280
world today is highly 
materialistic with many and the 

1213
01:18:26,280 --> 01:18:29,320
pursuit of material possessions 
become the main thriving forces 

1214
01:18:29,320 --> 01:18:32,920
in society. 
And in the vision of the in the 

1215
01:18:32,920 --> 01:18:36,560
future believe that people will 
place greater emphasize on 

1216
01:18:36,560 --> 01:18:39,440
religion and spiritual life. 
But how exactly will this 

1217
01:18:39,440 --> 01:18:43,400
transformation occur? 
Because if this will occur 

1218
01:18:43,480 --> 01:18:48,280
through like war or suffering, 
then as in history, we go 

1219
01:18:48,400 --> 01:18:52,360
through like War One and War 2, 
many people die and many tragedy

1220
01:18:52,360 --> 01:18:54,440
happen. 
But it seems that this value, 

1221
01:18:54,880 --> 01:18:59,440
this materialistic value doesn't
change because that's what what 

1222
01:18:59,440 --> 01:19:02,080
we have today. 
OK, so I didn't say. 

1223
01:19:02,160 --> 01:19:04,800
Everyone will experience this 
transformation. 

1224
01:19:04,880 --> 01:19:08,640
What I'm saying is that those 
who undergo the transformation 

1225
01:19:08,760 --> 01:19:13,600
will most likely survive the 
coming world collapse. 

1226
01:19:14,080 --> 01:19:15,360
OK? 
So you can choose to say, like I

1227
01:19:15,360 --> 01:19:17,800
I want to be materialistic. 
You can do that. 

1228
01:19:17,800 --> 01:19:20,480
And most people will choose to 
continue to want to be 

1229
01:19:20,480 --> 01:19:22,400
materialistic, but they won't 
survive. 

1230
01:19:23,160 --> 01:19:24,760
OK. 
And those who do undergo this 

1231
01:19:24,760 --> 01:19:27,040
transformation will survive. 
And why do they undergo the 

1232
01:19:27,040 --> 01:19:28,760
transformation? 
Because they see the world 

1233
01:19:28,760 --> 01:19:32,520
coping around them and they and 
they are looking for comfort. 

1234
01:19:32,640 --> 01:19:36,040
They're looking for a story, 
they're looking for explanation.

1235
01:19:36,040 --> 01:19:38,560
And so they turn to religion. 
OK, Does that make sense? 

1236
01:19:39,440 --> 01:19:41,080
OK. 
And the reality is that, look, 

1237
01:19:41,240 --> 01:19:45,000
in the coming 50 years of all 
this chaos and war, I would say 

1238
01:19:45,000 --> 01:19:46,800
90% of humanity will be wiped 
out. 

1239
01:19:47,480 --> 01:19:51,400
And a lot of these people will 
be because they refuse to adapt 

1240
01:19:51,520 --> 01:19:53,520
to the new world. 
They refuse to believe that a 

1241
01:19:53,520 --> 01:19:56,760
new world is coming and they 
should prepare for it, OK? 

1242
01:19:56,760 --> 01:19:58,120
They refuse to change their 
minds. 

1243
01:19:59,160 --> 01:20:02,000
OK Any more questions? 
Yeah, I have. 

1244
01:20:02,040 --> 01:20:06,240
Some question of like you will 
want me to ask maybe two. 

1245
01:20:06,240 --> 01:20:08,320
OK, OK. 
Yeah, the first. 

1246
01:20:08,720 --> 01:20:14,960
Is like he he he had some 
question about our ours as an 

1247
01:20:14,960 --> 01:20:19,080
individuals in this world. 
He said that if our efforts are 

1248
01:20:19,280 --> 01:20:23,440
defined based on the consequent 
consequentialism of secret 

1249
01:20:23,440 --> 01:20:26,840
society and other definitions, 
what is the significance of our 

1250
01:20:26,840 --> 01:20:29,680
efforts? 
Isn't it still exacerbating the 

1251
01:20:29,720 --> 01:20:32,440
secret society? 
Do we have a way to define our 

1252
01:20:32,440 --> 01:20:36,120
own value or can we only live in
the eye of others? 

1253
01:20:36,840 --> 01:20:40,120
Yeah, it's. 
Actually pointless to worry 

1254
01:20:40,120 --> 01:20:42,560
about 6 societies. 
It's actually pointless to worry

1255
01:20:42,560 --> 01:20:46,560
about others. 
What you can do is live your 

1256
01:20:46,560 --> 01:20:48,920
life to the best of your 
ability, OK? 

1257
01:20:48,920 --> 01:20:53,600
You can be focused on learning, 
on developing yourself 

1258
01:20:53,600 --> 01:20:56,720
spiritually and intellectually 
and emotionally. 

1259
01:20:57,200 --> 01:21:01,600
You can be focused on reading 
books, on asking questions, OK. 

1260
01:21:01,840 --> 01:21:04,120
And if you do that, you'll be 
fine. 

1261
01:21:04,560 --> 01:21:08,920
So stop worrying about secret 
societies, stop worrying about 

1262
01:21:08,920 --> 01:21:11,080
the end of the world, and just 
focus on your own personal 

1263
01:21:11,080 --> 01:21:14,760
transformation, OK? 
All right, one more question. 

1264
01:21:15,960 --> 01:21:21,440
Is related to the Chinese 
students he might He said that 

1265
01:21:21,440 --> 01:21:24,200
how do you think Chinese 
students who are currently 

1266
01:21:24,200 --> 01:21:27,160
studying in the United States 
will be perceived in the future,

1267
01:21:27,400 --> 01:21:31,680
while Chinese people 
discriminate against US American

1268
01:21:31,720 --> 01:21:35,440
students in the future? 
Look the reality. 

1269
01:21:35,440 --> 01:21:38,600
Is that the age of realization 
is over? 

1270
01:21:38,800 --> 01:21:43,160
The idea that Chinese students 
learn English, coping on plane, 

1271
01:21:43,240 --> 01:21:46,520
go to America, sort of study for
four years and come back and get

1272
01:21:46,520 --> 01:21:50,680
a good job, That era is over. 
And quite honestly, I'll be 

1273
01:21:50,680 --> 01:21:53,440
honest with you, I don't even 
know why Chinese students do 

1274
01:21:53,440 --> 01:21:58,240
this in the 1st place. 
OK, again, I think a lot of it 

1275
01:21:58,240 --> 01:22:00,520
has to do with the fact that 
China is not a real nation 

1276
01:22:00,520 --> 01:22:03,440
state. 
It's just a projection mirage 

1277
01:22:03,440 --> 01:22:09,320
created by the global economy, 
but I mean. 

1278
01:22:10,920 --> 01:22:13,560
I mean Chinese students. 
Now are focused on getting the 

1279
01:22:13,560 --> 01:22:16,360
degree in America. 
It's just a piece of paper. 

1280
01:22:16,920 --> 01:22:20,080
Chinese students don't care 
enough about an education, about

1281
01:22:20,080 --> 01:22:22,360
learning. 
OK, that's that's a great myth 

1282
01:22:22,360 --> 01:22:24,520
about Chinese students in this 
world where Chinese students are

1283
01:22:24,520 --> 01:22:26,640
the best in the world because 
Chinese students love learning 

1284
01:22:26,800 --> 01:22:28,160
and are disciplined. 
That's not true. 

1285
01:22:28,440 --> 01:22:33,440
Chinese students are extremely 
extrusively motivated. 

1286
01:22:33,440 --> 01:22:35,880
They care about the grades, they
care about the degree. 

1287
01:22:36,040 --> 01:22:38,080
Once you take that away from 
Chinese students, Chinese 

1288
01:22:38,200 --> 01:22:39,560
students don't even know what to
do. 

1289
01:22:39,920 --> 01:22:42,800
They play video games everyday. 
They just sit around and do 

1290
01:22:42,800 --> 01:22:45,880
nothing. 
OK, So if Chinese students are 

1291
01:22:45,880 --> 01:22:48,760
to thrive in the future, they 
need to learn passion. 

1292
01:22:48,880 --> 01:22:50,920
They need to learn interesting 
motivation. 

1293
01:22:51,040 --> 01:22:53,400
They need to love learning for 
itself. 

1294
01:22:53,400 --> 01:22:57,560
All right, OK, All right, so 
that is it. 

1295
01:22:57,720 --> 01:23:02,480
Thank you for the midterm and I 
will see everyone the week 

1296
01:23:02,480 --> 01:23:04,200
after. 
OK, so we're taking a break next

1297
01:23:04,200 --> 01:23:04,480
week.