1 00:00:07,880 --> 00:00:10,960 Welcome to Flight Global Focus, the essential podcast for 2 00:00:10,960 --> 00:00:14,280 trusted aviation insight. I'm Ryan Finnerty, Flight 3 00:00:14,280 --> 00:00:16,480 Global's America's defence reporter. 4 00:00:16,600 --> 00:00:20,160 And in our first episode of 2026, we're looking at the 5 00:00:20,160 --> 00:00:24,120 United States audacious raid to capture Venezuelan dictator 6 00:00:24,120 --> 00:00:26,840 Nicolas Maduro and remove him from power. 7 00:00:27,440 --> 00:00:30,960 Dubbed Operation Absolute Resolve by the Pentagon, the 8 00:00:30,960 --> 00:00:34,160 successful mission has shocked the world both for its technical 9 00:00:34,160 --> 00:00:38,080 complexity and level of risk. Washingtons reversion to the 10 00:00:38,080 --> 00:00:41,840 muscular imperialist tactics of the 19th and early 20th 11 00:00:41,840 --> 00:00:45,600 centuries is also casting doubt on the future of the current 12 00:00:45,600 --> 00:00:48,760 geopolitical order. Joining me today to discuss the 13 00:00:48,760 --> 00:00:51,920 raid and its implications are Flight Global's managing editor 14 00:00:51,920 --> 00:00:55,240 for defence, Greg Waldron, who's based in Singapore, and our 15 00:00:55,240 --> 00:00:58,160 European Defence editor Craig Hoyle in London. 16 00:00:58,280 --> 00:00:59,640 Hey guys, good to speak with you again. 17 00:00:59,920 --> 00:01:01,760 Hey, happy new year Ryan and Craig. 18 00:01:02,040 --> 00:01:05,440 Great to be back and the year is literally starting with a bang. 19 00:01:05,720 --> 00:01:08,800 Yes, Happy New Year to all the people out there and yeah, 20 00:01:09,400 --> 00:01:15,160 exciting times. Yeah, happy new Year, guys. 21 00:01:15,160 --> 00:01:18,840 Certainly not a slow start to 2026. 22 00:01:19,160 --> 00:01:22,680 So here's what we know about the Caracas raid that captured 23 00:01:22,680 --> 00:01:26,480 Maduro. There were over 150 aircraft 24 00:01:26,480 --> 00:01:29,720 involved in the operation, according to the Pentagon, and 25 00:01:29,720 --> 00:01:33,240 those aircraft launched from 20 different bases and ships around 26 00:01:33,240 --> 00:01:36,680 the Western Hemisphere. Bombers and strike fighters hit 27 00:01:36,680 --> 00:01:40,680 targets in Venezuela, including air defence radars, opening a 28 00:01:40,680 --> 00:01:43,640 path for a flight of special operations helicopters to 29 00:01:43,640 --> 00:01:46,640 deliver the assault force on the night of 2 January. 30 00:01:47,080 --> 00:01:51,040 We know those helicopters came from the US Armies elite 160th 31 00:01:51,040 --> 00:01:54,680 Special Operations Aviation Regiment, which provides Rotary 32 00:01:54,680 --> 00:01:58,200 wing aviation support to U.S. special operations forces. 33 00:01:58,800 --> 00:02:01,840 And we also know the helicopter assault force launched from a 34 00:02:01,840 --> 00:02:05,280 naval vessel that could be either the amphibious assault 35 00:02:05,280 --> 00:02:09,560 ship the USS Iwojima or the secretive MV Ocean Trader, which 36 00:02:09,560 --> 00:02:13,280 is a floating special operations base known to be operating in 37 00:02:13,280 --> 00:02:16,080 the region. Video posted online by 38 00:02:16,080 --> 00:02:21,360 Venezuelan civilians clearly shows twin rotor MH47 GS, the 39 00:02:21,360 --> 00:02:25,320 special operations variant of Boeing's Chapter 47 Chinook 40 00:02:25,320 --> 00:02:28,640 heavy lift helicopter. Within the US military, the 41 00:02:28,640 --> 00:02:32,000 MH47-G is only flown by the 160th. 42 00:02:32,440 --> 00:02:35,440 That video also shows the distinct outline of several 43 00:02:35,440 --> 00:02:39,760 Blackhawk helicopters, likely the specialised Sikorsky MH60 44 00:02:39,760 --> 00:02:41,960 variants, also flown by the 160th. 45 00:02:42,400 --> 00:02:45,480 Separate footage shows what appears to be a small attack 46 00:02:45,480 --> 00:02:49,240 helicopter carrying out air to ground strikes at low altitude. 47 00:02:49,560 --> 00:02:53,200 These could be the Armed Direct Action Penetrator variant of the 48 00:02:53,200 --> 00:02:58,920 One Sixtieths, MH 60S or Bell AH1Z Vipers, which were embarked 49 00:02:58,920 --> 00:03:01,640 from the US Marine Corps Amphibious Assault group that 50 00:03:01,640 --> 00:03:04,840 has also been operating off the coast of Venezuela for months. 51 00:03:05,360 --> 00:03:09,000 Other video has emerged of Lockheed Martin's stealthy RQ 52 00:03:09,000 --> 00:03:13,000 170 flying wing drone operating from Puerto Rico, likely 53 00:03:13,000 --> 00:03:15,280 providing intelligence and reconnaissance support to the 54 00:03:15,280 --> 00:03:17,600 raid. After securing Maduro, the 55 00:03:17,600 --> 00:03:21,400 extraction force reboarded helicopters and flew to the USS 56 00:03:21,400 --> 00:03:24,160 Iwo Jima light carrier that was waiting offshore. 57 00:03:24,480 --> 00:03:27,360 The top American military officer, Chairman of the Joint 58 00:03:27,360 --> 00:03:30,960 Chiefs of Staff, General Dan Kane, described the operation as 59 00:03:30,960 --> 00:03:34,160 one that quote only the US military could undertake. 60 00:03:34,840 --> 00:03:37,680 Craig, what has been your reaction upon seeing all of that 61 00:03:37,680 --> 00:03:40,520 footage coming out of Venezuela? Yeah, it was an interesting 62 00:03:40,520 --> 00:03:44,520 start to the weekend. I was up and watching the TV and 63 00:03:44,520 --> 00:03:47,800 we had a breaking news item from the BBC saying there'd been 64 00:03:47,800 --> 00:03:51,160 explosions in Caracas. So my, my initial reaction was 65 00:03:51,160 --> 00:03:54,480 to think, oh, hey, this is going to be a little slap on the wrist 66 00:03:54,480 --> 00:03:58,040 because obviously the US had been building up its forces off 67 00:03:58,040 --> 00:04:01,280 the coast and in the Caribbean for several months beforehand. 68 00:04:01,560 --> 00:04:04,200 So didn't think it was going to be an anything particularly 69 00:04:04,200 --> 00:04:06,920 substantial wrong. Then the next thing I saw was 70 00:04:06,920 --> 00:04:09,880 the formation of the helicopters and thought, oh, you know, 71 00:04:09,880 --> 00:04:12,840 maybe, maybe that's Maduro trying to get away. 72 00:04:12,840 --> 00:04:16,000 But as you said, you know, it very clearly was Chinooks and 73 00:04:16,000 --> 00:04:19,440 Blackhawks and Venezuela doesn't fly either of those types. 74 00:04:19,440 --> 00:04:23,840 So very clearly this this was AUSAUS activity. 75 00:04:24,360 --> 00:04:27,440 I mean looking at it, yeah, it is pretty bold to fly package 76 00:04:27,440 --> 00:04:29,960 like that. So tightly grouped helicopters. 77 00:04:30,000 --> 00:04:32,240 I'm not sure how many there were, you know, good half dozen 78 00:04:32,240 --> 00:04:36,720 or so flying low over the city. Clearly they were very confident 79 00:04:36,720 --> 00:04:39,040 that all the supporting elements had done their job. 80 00:04:39,440 --> 00:04:42,680 So they'd already taken out the surface to our missile systems 81 00:04:42,680 --> 00:04:45,800 that Venezuela had. Anything like a fixed air 82 00:04:45,800 --> 00:04:48,560 defence position also would have been struck in advance. 83 00:04:48,880 --> 00:04:51,960 I think it's really key to note that while this is a special 84 00:04:51,960 --> 00:04:56,000 operations raid, it was part of a wider integrated force, and 85 00:04:56,000 --> 00:05:00,200 that was key to it succeeding. So by contrast, the last time we 86 00:05:00,200 --> 00:05:03,520 really saw helicopters going in like that was when Russia 87 00:05:03,520 --> 00:05:07,480 invaded Ukraine in early 2022. Of course, it did it rather 88 00:05:07,480 --> 00:05:09,640 differently. And it had lots of aircraft shot 89 00:05:09,640 --> 00:05:12,360 down because it hadn't prepared the ground for them. 90 00:05:12,360 --> 00:05:15,640 And then it flew them in at low level and in broad daylight. 91 00:05:15,840 --> 00:05:19,240 So it showed the the US sort of did things definitely smarter. 92 00:05:19,880 --> 00:05:23,280 So during the operation itself, despite having taken out things 93 00:05:23,280 --> 00:05:26,520 like the surface to our missile systems, they still would have 94 00:05:26,520 --> 00:05:30,200 been at risk from small arms fire or maybe a lucky shot if 95 00:05:30,200 --> 00:05:32,000 someone had been there with an RPG. 96 00:05:32,280 --> 00:05:35,240 But it all looks to have taken place really quickly and it 97 00:05:35,240 --> 00:05:37,920 either caught the Venezuelan military completely off guard, 98 00:05:38,360 --> 00:05:42,120 or possibly they weren't that keen to fight a vastly better 99 00:05:42,120 --> 00:05:44,840 equipped adversary. The nation's air bases had 100 00:05:44,840 --> 00:05:48,360 already been targeted also, so there was no opportunity for 101 00:05:48,360 --> 00:05:50,360 Venezuela to get jets into the air. 102 00:05:50,720 --> 00:05:54,320 But it's worth noting it only has maybe 3 or 4 operational F 103 00:05:54,320 --> 00:05:59,960 sixteens and they're old and maybe about 20 SU 30s, which I I 104 00:05:59,960 --> 00:06:02,440 don't expect you can scramble in a hurry. 105 00:06:02,760 --> 00:06:05,640 So arguably, the Air Force wouldn't have been much use in 106 00:06:05,640 --> 00:06:08,120 this operation anyway. Yeah, I think that's a really 107 00:06:08,120 --> 00:06:11,280 interesting comparison to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, 108 00:06:11,280 --> 00:06:15,600 Craig, and that that 2022 opening phase air assault that 109 00:06:15,600 --> 00:06:19,800 was ultimately unsuccessful. And we recently did an episode 110 00:06:19,800 --> 00:06:23,680 back in December looking at the future of helicopters in combat, 111 00:06:23,840 --> 00:06:27,280 with a particular focus on whether helicopters can survive 112 00:06:27,280 --> 00:06:29,080 in a modern contested environment. 113 00:06:29,360 --> 00:06:32,840 And we looked at that battle quite extensively, the battle 114 00:06:32,840 --> 00:06:35,520 for Hostamel Airport. As part of that reporting, I 115 00:06:35,520 --> 00:06:38,520 spoke with a former U.S. Army general who at one point in 116 00:06:38,520 --> 00:06:41,240 his career commanded a battalion of the 160th. 117 00:06:41,640 --> 00:06:44,520 His name is Jeffrey Schloser, and he's now an executive at 118 00:06:44,520 --> 00:06:47,760 Bell and remains a believer in the power of the helicopter. 119 00:06:47,960 --> 00:06:51,560 And he told us that addressing the survivability question is 120 00:06:51,560 --> 00:06:55,480 all about proper planning. It is the willingness to use, 121 00:06:55,520 --> 00:06:59,800 you know, modern day tactics and techniques in the cockpit 122 00:07:00,120 --> 00:07:07,680 combined with a broader operational manoeuvre concept 123 00:07:07,920 --> 00:07:10,840 that has to be done at a higher headquarters that says I'm going 124 00:07:10,840 --> 00:07:15,400 to employ Rotary wing and fix fast wing other aircraft. 125 00:07:15,880 --> 00:07:20,600 I'm going to employ them in ways that allow indirect approaches. 126 00:07:21,040 --> 00:07:23,920 You disperse on the battlefield, you come together for real 127 00:07:23,920 --> 00:07:27,520 reasons that are basically combined with other 128 00:07:27,520 --> 00:07:30,280 capabilities. I, I never operated, for 129 00:07:30,280 --> 00:07:34,160 example, as an Army aviator, as a commander or as a commander of 130 00:07:34,160 --> 00:07:38,720 infantry troops with, with significant aviation and other 131 00:07:38,720 --> 00:07:41,560 and artillery and stuff such as when I had the, the 101st 132 00:07:41,560 --> 00:07:43,600 Airborne Division. I never operated them 133 00:07:43,600 --> 00:07:46,120 separately. I always combined the efforts on 134 00:07:46,120 --> 00:07:49,440 the battlefield maximum, you know, maximum effect. 135 00:07:50,000 --> 00:07:53,280 And that's what's going to be required to change the calculus 136 00:07:53,280 --> 00:07:56,000 there on the battlefield. So it's not just new aircraft. 137 00:07:56,000 --> 00:07:58,440 It's not, you know, and it's also just not great. 138 00:07:58,440 --> 00:08:04,440 An aviator that can fly at night or fly low enough to at speed. 139 00:08:04,840 --> 00:08:07,160 It's going to require this broader concept. 140 00:08:07,680 --> 00:08:11,920 And that broader concept is apparently exactly what planners 141 00:08:11,920 --> 00:08:15,160 of the Caracas mission did, according to General Kane, the 142 00:08:15,160 --> 00:08:16,640 chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. 143 00:08:16,880 --> 00:08:19,800 He's the US military's top officer and adviser to the 144 00:08:19,800 --> 00:08:22,000 president. Shortly after the mission 145 00:08:22,000 --> 00:08:25,880 concluded, Kane detailed how the Pentagon coordinated for months 146 00:08:25,880 --> 00:08:29,720 with intelligence agencies and the various military services to 147 00:08:29,720 --> 00:08:34,120 prepare for the raid. We watched, we waited, we 148 00:08:34,120 --> 00:08:38,080 prepared, we remained patient and professional. 149 00:08:38,799 --> 00:08:42,720 This mission was meticulously planned, drawing lessons from 150 00:08:42,720 --> 00:08:45,000 many missions over these last many years. 151 00:08:45,520 --> 00:08:50,360 This was an audacious operation that only the United States 152 00:08:50,360 --> 00:08:52,960 could do. It required the utmost of 153 00:08:52,960 --> 00:08:58,040 precision and integration within our joint force, and the word 154 00:08:58,040 --> 00:09:02,880 integration does not explain the sheer complexity of such a 155 00:09:02,880 --> 00:09:06,840 mission. An extraction so precise it 156 00:09:06,840 --> 00:09:10,960 involved more than 150 aircraft launching across the Western 157 00:09:10,960 --> 00:09:14,920 Hemisphere in close coordination, all coming 158 00:09:14,920 --> 00:09:20,200 together in time and place to layer effects for a single 159 00:09:20,200 --> 00:09:25,360 purpose to get an interdiction force into downtown Caracas 160 00:09:25,680 --> 00:09:29,040 while maintaining the element of tactical surprise. 161 00:09:29,840 --> 00:09:34,280 Failure of 1 component of this well oiled machine would have 162 00:09:34,280 --> 00:09:38,400 endangered the entire mission. So, Greg, the success of this 163 00:09:38,400 --> 00:09:42,000 mission in Venezuela would seem to be a validation of Jeff 164 00:09:42,000 --> 00:09:45,440 Schlosser's contention that helicopters can still operate 165 00:09:45,520 --> 00:09:47,720 safely in dangerous environments. 166 00:09:48,120 --> 00:09:51,040 We know that one aircraft on the mission took some damage, but 167 00:09:51,040 --> 00:09:53,760 none were lost or catastrophically impacted. 168 00:09:54,000 --> 00:09:57,600 What's your sense of the of that reality? 169 00:09:57,880 --> 00:10:02,160 Certainly to Craig's point and also to Keynes point there the 170 00:10:02,320 --> 00:10:06,120 US had total aerial supremacy. You know, they had a vast fleet 171 00:10:06,120 --> 00:10:09,320 of aircraft in the air. Everything was working very well 172 00:10:09,320 --> 00:10:11,320 together. And that was, I think, really 173 00:10:11,320 --> 00:10:14,400 key to getting this done. And as you know, Kamdish 174 00:10:14,400 --> 00:10:18,080 mentioned too, if you had a, you know, one part of the machine 175 00:10:18,080 --> 00:10:22,040 gets out of whack, then you can start having serious problems. 176 00:10:22,040 --> 00:10:25,520 And I'd also add to that, it doesn't only build on the 177 00:10:25,600 --> 00:10:29,120 positive experiences the US has had with these helicopter 178 00:10:29,120 --> 00:10:31,080 missions over the years, but the, you know, some of the 179 00:10:31,080 --> 00:10:32,920 negative missions. I mean, there have been some 180 00:10:32,920 --> 00:10:36,920 very high profile failures over the decades, which are clearly 181 00:10:36,920 --> 00:10:41,440 the US has learned from. I mean, what was it, 1980? 182 00:10:41,440 --> 00:10:44,480 You had the desert one failure where they were trying to get 183 00:10:44,480 --> 00:10:47,680 the hostages out of Tehran. It was a very, again, a very 184 00:10:47,680 --> 00:10:51,040 complex operation. Delta Force, Navy, Air Force, 185 00:10:51,040 --> 00:10:53,920 Marines, and you know, they're going to go out to this remote 186 00:10:53,920 --> 00:10:59,640 salt flat C One 30s would refuel these RH 53D helicopters. 187 00:11:00,000 --> 00:11:02,760 They thought that this would be totally isolated to be nobody 188 00:11:02,760 --> 00:11:05,280 out there, but they were there for maybe an hour and they 189 00:11:05,280 --> 00:11:07,960 started to notice traffic going by in a road nearby. 190 00:11:07,960 --> 00:11:11,120 They hadn't anticipated that. They'd also had a lot of issues 191 00:11:11,120 --> 00:11:13,120 with the weather, specifically dust. 192 00:11:13,560 --> 00:11:15,760 That meant that they ultimately decided there were not enough 193 00:11:15,760 --> 00:11:17,840 helicopters to actually go into Tehran. 194 00:11:17,840 --> 00:11:19,440 So they decide to abort the mission. 195 00:11:19,720 --> 00:11:22,440 But then as they're trying to leave, one of the helicopters 196 00:11:22,440 --> 00:11:25,560 collided with the C 1:30 and 8:00 servicemen died, and it 197 00:11:25,560 --> 00:11:29,080 basically all but destroyed the presidency of Jimmy Carter. 198 00:11:29,440 --> 00:11:32,240 Now, of course, there's the infamous Battle of Mogadishu in 199 00:11:32,240 --> 00:11:34,800 1993. Again, everything goes 200 00:11:34,800 --> 00:11:37,520 perfectly. They come in, everything is just 201 00:11:37,520 --> 00:11:40,360 perfectly timed, everything is exactly precise, but then 202 00:11:40,360 --> 00:11:44,280 suddenly something goes off the rails. 2 MH 60s were shot down 203 00:11:44,680 --> 00:11:49,760 and this like quick 1520 minute raid turns into this 15 hour 204 00:11:50,200 --> 00:11:53,120 battle. Killed 18 Americans, 73 were 205 00:11:53,120 --> 00:11:57,120 wounded and hundreds, maybe thousands of Somalis were killed 206 00:11:57,440 --> 00:11:59,480 in this just because of this failure. 207 00:11:59,480 --> 00:12:03,280 And ultimately it led to the, you know, US withdrawal from 208 00:12:03,280 --> 00:12:05,280 Somali. And it certainly probably didn't 209 00:12:05,280 --> 00:12:07,880 do anything for the, you know, that withdrawal certainly didn't 210 00:12:07,880 --> 00:12:10,240 do anything for the political stability of that country. 211 00:12:10,560 --> 00:12:14,040 But then you go to 2011, you have the textbook raid, the I 212 00:12:14,040 --> 00:12:17,840 think Navy Seal's, they went into Pakistan and they killed 213 00:12:17,840 --> 00:12:20,880 Osama bin Laden. But even that, you know, nearly 214 00:12:20,880 --> 00:12:24,200 was a disaster. An MH60 hit a wall at Osama's 215 00:12:24,200 --> 00:12:26,880 compound. Fortunately, the guys inside the 216 00:12:26,880 --> 00:12:29,160 helicopter survived and they were able to escape. 217 00:12:29,560 --> 00:12:33,360 But allegedly that tale, which was one of the stealthy MH 60s, 218 00:12:33,360 --> 00:12:35,920 might have made its way to China, which helped them form 219 00:12:36,000 --> 00:12:39,600 their stealth programmes. So I think when these missions 220 00:12:39,600 --> 00:12:41,720 go really well, they're spectacular. 221 00:12:41,720 --> 00:12:44,480 Things work great. But the problem is, if something 222 00:12:44,480 --> 00:12:47,760 goes wrong, it's very easy to go from like a very successful 223 00:12:47,760 --> 00:12:51,040 mission to a total failure. If, as Craig pointed out, 224 00:12:51,040 --> 00:12:54,360 somebody had been there with an RPG or was able to get a lucky 225 00:12:54,360 --> 00:12:57,760 shot on one of the helicopters going into this thing and they 226 00:12:57,760 --> 00:13:00,360 had a few helicopters going down into Venezuela. 227 00:13:00,640 --> 00:13:03,120 I mean, it could have been a very, very different outcome. 228 00:13:03,200 --> 00:13:06,200 And it could have been a very difficult thing for the Trump 229 00:13:06,200 --> 00:13:08,040 presidency. So I wouldn't go as far as to 230 00:13:08,040 --> 00:13:11,360 say that the US got lucky because they certainly pull out 231 00:13:11,360 --> 00:13:13,640 of preparing. A lot of professionalism went 232 00:13:13,640 --> 00:13:16,120 into doing this. But to a degree, you know, 233 00:13:16,120 --> 00:13:20,000 things went very well for them. Spectacular success. 234 00:13:20,320 --> 00:13:24,040 But of course, success in such an operation is really balanced 235 00:13:24,040 --> 00:13:26,640 on a knife edge. Yeah. 236 00:13:26,640 --> 00:13:30,120 And from some of the the other reporting that's that's come out 237 00:13:30,120 --> 00:13:33,720 in the day since the raid, it seems that there was at least 238 00:13:33,960 --> 00:13:38,360 one insider source high up in the Venezuelan government, 239 00:13:38,360 --> 00:13:43,120 whether in in the military or a Maduro advisor that seems to 240 00:13:43,120 --> 00:13:47,960 have been working with the CIA to provide intelligence for this 241 00:13:47,960 --> 00:13:50,120 raid. And so you have to wonder if if 242 00:13:50,120 --> 00:13:54,760 maybe there was an order given to some of the Venezuelan armed 243 00:13:54,760 --> 00:13:58,400 forces not to engage because it does seem like there was 244 00:13:58,400 --> 00:14:01,840 relatively light resistance. And we know the Venezuelan 245 00:14:01,960 --> 00:14:06,800 forces do have man portable air defence systems and and larger 246 00:14:06,800 --> 00:14:10,560 ground based air defences from Russia that clearly were either 247 00:14:10,560 --> 00:14:15,240 ineffective or not employed. So definitely some some intrigue 248 00:14:15,240 --> 00:14:17,880 on that front. And you have to wonder clearly 249 00:14:18,120 --> 00:14:21,560 with the Ukraine case that you mentioned that Craig mentioned 250 00:14:21,560 --> 00:14:25,480 earlier, a relatively small number of defenders armed with 251 00:14:25,480 --> 00:14:29,400 those shoulder fired guided missiles were able to severely 252 00:14:29,400 --> 00:14:31,480 disrupt an air assault operation. 253 00:14:32,120 --> 00:14:36,280 And I think the the mention of the Desert 1 mission that you 254 00:14:36,280 --> 00:14:39,040 brought up, Greg, is also really interesting to rescue the 255 00:14:39,360 --> 00:14:42,720 American hostages in Tehran. Because the failure of that 256 00:14:42,720 --> 00:14:47,120 mission is actually what led to the creation of the 160th 257 00:14:47,200 --> 00:14:50,840 Regiment within the US Army to specialise in those type of high 258 00:14:50,840 --> 00:14:55,120 risk aviation missions that need a very particular set of skills 259 00:14:55,120 --> 00:14:58,640 operating at night in any kind of weather, maybe urban 260 00:14:58,640 --> 00:15:02,720 insertions and extractions. And General Kane, Chairman of 261 00:15:02,720 --> 00:15:06,400 the Joint Chiefs of Staff, did give some light details about 262 00:15:06,400 --> 00:15:09,880 the conditions the aviators faced on the Caracas mission. 263 00:15:10,280 --> 00:15:13,760 Launching over water at night, flying very low, going through 264 00:15:13,760 --> 00:15:17,920 the mountains with a very narrow weather corridor and kind of 265 00:15:17,920 --> 00:15:19,400 everything that goes along with that. 266 00:15:19,720 --> 00:15:24,160 So definitely a validation of the creation of that specialised 267 00:15:24,520 --> 00:15:29,200 type of unit that you really couldn't pull off this type of 268 00:15:29,200 --> 00:15:33,760 operation without the aircraft and the the aviators who have 269 00:15:33,760 --> 00:15:37,360 those very particular skills. In the Iran case, they were 270 00:15:37,360 --> 00:15:41,080 using pilots from the Marine Corps, from the US Marine Corps, 271 00:15:41,080 --> 00:15:45,320 as Greg mentioned. And there's a great book by Mark 272 00:15:45,320 --> 00:15:49,480 Bowden who wrote Black Hawk Down called guest of the Ayatollah. 273 00:15:49,480 --> 00:15:52,720 And he, he really details kind of the, the behind the scenes 274 00:15:52,720 --> 00:15:56,280 planning of that mission. And the way he reported it was 275 00:15:56,280 --> 00:15:58,680 that the Marines were picked basically in an effort to 276 00:15:58,720 --> 00:16:03,200 include them in a make make the the rescue operation fully 277 00:16:03,200 --> 00:16:07,560 joint, have Air Force, Navy, Army and Marines be involved. 278 00:16:07,840 --> 00:16:10,840 And that the helicopter pilots were not really adequately 279 00:16:10,840 --> 00:16:12,920 prepared for the type of conditions they face. 280 00:16:12,920 --> 00:16:16,720 So that led to the creation of the 160th, which has pulled off 281 00:16:16,720 --> 00:16:19,840 this and several other successes that Greg mentioned. 282 00:16:20,280 --> 00:16:24,840 Looking forward guys, it seems like the US administration, the 283 00:16:24,840 --> 00:16:27,160 Trump administration in Washington is is definitely 284 00:16:27,160 --> 00:16:29,320 feeling emboldened by this success. 285 00:16:29,600 --> 00:16:33,960 We just saw in the the week following the raid, U.S. forces 286 00:16:33,960 --> 00:16:38,000 have seized a Russian flagged oil tanker in the North Atlantic 287 00:16:38,000 --> 00:16:41,360 with help from the UK Ministry of Defence. 288 00:16:41,720 --> 00:16:45,120 It would seem like this is, is setting a precedent, a pretty 289 00:16:45,120 --> 00:16:50,640 clear precedent that powerful countries can do what they want 290 00:16:50,640 --> 00:16:53,080 in, you know, what might have formerly been called their 291 00:16:53,080 --> 00:16:56,480 sphere of influence. We've obviously got a hot war in 292 00:16:56,480 --> 00:17:01,120 Europe where you're based, Craig, and a potential conflict 293 00:17:01,120 --> 00:17:04,839 in Asia around Taiwan. How do you see this, Craig, 294 00:17:04,839 --> 00:17:08,960 particularly looking at the, the Russia situation in Europe? 295 00:17:08,960 --> 00:17:12,839 And how do you think Russia's going to react to the US taking 296 00:17:12,839 --> 00:17:14,680 this step? Yeah, it's really interesting 297 00:17:14,680 --> 00:17:18,720 because we've, I think when you when you think back to say the 298 00:17:18,839 --> 00:17:24,680 the Chavez administration in Venezuela previously that relied 299 00:17:24,680 --> 00:17:26,920 a bit on, you know, having Russian support. 300 00:17:26,920 --> 00:17:30,640 And so I think you'd have maybe at one point thought, well, the 301 00:17:30,680 --> 00:17:33,080 US can't go and do anything in Venezuela because it will annoy 302 00:17:33,080 --> 00:17:36,280 the Russians and the Russians will poor forces in that 303 00:17:36,360 --> 00:17:38,360 Russia's obviously too busy with other things. 304 00:17:38,360 --> 00:17:41,160 Currently. Equally with the oil tanker 305 00:17:41,160 --> 00:17:45,400 seizure, there was a Russian vessel accompanying it, rather 306 00:17:45,400 --> 00:17:48,800 dubious that had been re flagged as a Russian vessel at sea. 307 00:17:48,800 --> 00:17:51,840 So I, I think they didn't really have a legal leg to stand on. 308 00:17:52,080 --> 00:17:54,520 But yes, previously you would have thought, hey, there's no 309 00:17:54,520 --> 00:17:57,440 way the US will go and seize a ship or the Russians are 310 00:17:57,440 --> 00:17:59,880 accompanying it. But they went ahead and did it. 311 00:17:59,880 --> 00:18:02,800 So yes, I think as you said, they're feeling emboldened. 312 00:18:03,080 --> 00:18:07,200 I mean, the other key discussion point around the Venezuelan raid 313 00:18:07,240 --> 00:18:11,640 is how everybody else is going to react to it and how they 314 00:18:11,640 --> 00:18:14,560 interpret, you know, what actually went on. 315 00:18:14,800 --> 00:18:18,360 There's been a lot of concerns. Certainly the UN stated that the 316 00:18:18,360 --> 00:18:21,520 rules governing the use of force have not been respected. 317 00:18:21,880 --> 00:18:25,160 Pretty direct words from the UN of, you know, this is a bit 318 00:18:25,160 --> 00:18:28,640 shady what went on here. I mean, more broadly, we've got 319 00:18:28,640 --> 00:18:32,400 China probing Taiwan's defences on pretty much a daily basis. 320 00:18:32,840 --> 00:18:36,720 Beijing views it as a breakaway province presided over by puppet 321 00:18:36,720 --> 00:18:39,480 administration, which it doesn't consider legitimate. 322 00:18:40,240 --> 00:18:43,600 Russia's already seized Ukrainian territory using the 323 00:18:43,600 --> 00:18:46,400 argument that it needs it for its own security. 324 00:18:46,440 --> 00:18:49,240 Sound familiar? To protect itself from an ever 325 00:18:49,240 --> 00:18:52,600 eastward expanding NATO. Last year we saw Russian drone 326 00:18:52,600 --> 00:18:55,920 incursions along the alliance's eastern flank into each of the 327 00:18:55,920 --> 00:18:58,160 Baltic states, Poland and Romania. 328 00:18:58,600 --> 00:19:01,480 Putin will certainly continue to test its defences. 329 00:19:02,080 --> 00:19:04,720 So it feels like I'm going down a political Burrow. 330 00:19:04,920 --> 00:19:08,120 But we've been used to trotting out phrases like belligerent and 331 00:19:08,120 --> 00:19:11,160 expansionist when we talk about the leadership in Moscow and 332 00:19:11,160 --> 00:19:13,760 Beijing. But that really clouds when the 333 00:19:13,760 --> 00:19:17,440 president of the United States kind of glibly suggests that 334 00:19:17,440 --> 00:19:20,720 he's going to take over Greenland or Canada and is now 335 00:19:20,720 --> 00:19:23,280 running Venezuela and it's oil supplies. 336 00:19:23,720 --> 00:19:26,480 You know, there's a rules based order and it's there for a 337 00:19:26,480 --> 00:19:29,720 reason. So it was wrong when Argentina 338 00:19:29,720 --> 00:19:33,880 invaded the Falkland Islands in 1982, when Iraq went into Kuwait 339 00:19:33,880 --> 00:19:37,560 for its oil in 1990. And while Russia tries to 340 00:19:37,560 --> 00:19:42,080 subsume Ukraine, and obviously it'd be bad if Russia decided it 341 00:19:42,080 --> 00:19:46,000 wanted to take Alaska back from the USA, but it's different if 342 00:19:46,000 --> 00:19:48,720 the self declared ruler of the Western Hemisphere does it. 343 00:19:49,240 --> 00:19:52,240 So I mean, I think people would just question what what is 344 00:19:52,240 --> 00:19:55,160 Trump's ambition here? Is it national security, 345 00:19:55,480 --> 00:19:59,240 controlling global oil supplies, distracting people from other 346 00:19:59,240 --> 00:20:01,480 things? Or is it a sort of empire 347 00:20:01,480 --> 00:20:06,520 building frenzy to add territory to the USA for ego or legacy? 348 00:20:06,960 --> 00:20:09,880 I mean my part of the world. This is spooking people in 349 00:20:09,880 --> 00:20:12,760 Europe, definitely. Let's say Trump gets Greenland, 350 00:20:12,760 --> 00:20:17,000 whether that's by buying it or sending in the military, what 351 00:20:17,000 --> 00:20:19,760 happens that next? You know, it has a big impact on 352 00:20:19,760 --> 00:20:23,960 NATO and NATO's viability. But so he gets Greenland. 353 00:20:24,360 --> 00:20:27,360 Iceland's also very important strategically and doesn't even 354 00:20:27,360 --> 00:20:30,160 have a military. So, you know, maybe he'll take 355 00:20:30,160 --> 00:20:32,720 or buy that as well. And then what? 356 00:20:32,720 --> 00:20:34,760 Ireland, Scotland, they're pretty nice. 357 00:20:35,560 --> 00:20:38,320 It's madness and it's it's, it's pretty concerning. 358 00:20:38,880 --> 00:20:41,840 Yeah, Craig, sometimes I think with some of the US military 359 00:20:41,840 --> 00:20:45,800 missions, it's like they look at the missions that the US 360 00:20:45,800 --> 00:20:48,600 military is capable of doing, which are very broad and very 361 00:20:48,680 --> 00:20:51,160 vast, and they decide which ones are the cool ones. 362 00:20:51,160 --> 00:20:53,920 And these are the ones that they play out and then they kind of 363 00:20:53,920 --> 00:20:56,120 brag about them. This is kind of a, you know, 364 00:20:56,120 --> 00:20:59,120 sort of a gut impression I get. But, you know, really, you know, 365 00:20:59,120 --> 00:21:03,320 around the Taiwan thing, China has made very clear that it has 366 00:21:03,360 --> 00:21:05,960 its intention to take over Taiwan. 367 00:21:05,960 --> 00:21:09,160 They call it reunification. That's debatable whether that's 368 00:21:09,160 --> 00:21:11,680 the correct term. But of course, they've built up 369 00:21:11,680 --> 00:21:14,600 this, you know, very significant Air Force capability. 370 00:21:14,640 --> 00:21:17,760 They've really invested in the sea power that would be able to 371 00:21:18,080 --> 00:21:21,880 get across the straits, establish a beachhead and then 372 00:21:21,880 --> 00:21:24,240 of course, hope maybe resupply that beachhead. 373 00:21:24,680 --> 00:21:28,520 But the one take away, I think that they might get from this 374 00:21:29,240 --> 00:21:35,760 raid, of course, any US response should it come to invasion of 375 00:21:35,760 --> 00:21:39,280 Taiwan would not be of course, be similar to the Venezuela 376 00:21:39,280 --> 00:21:41,000 mission. But of course, it would rely on 377 00:21:41,000 --> 00:21:44,640 a lot of assets kind of coming together and converging to 378 00:21:44,640 --> 00:21:47,320 strike an invasion force around Taiwan. 379 00:21:47,320 --> 00:21:49,840 So you'd have bombers coming in, you'd have fighters and you'd 380 00:21:49,840 --> 00:21:52,440 have tankers, you know, supporting that effort. 381 00:21:52,840 --> 00:21:55,800 And I think the one thing that really give Beijing pause is EU 382 00:21:55,800 --> 00:22:00,560 SS ability to, you know, really come in and have a lot of 383 00:22:00,560 --> 00:22:03,680 firepower at one spot in a very coordinated manner. 384 00:22:03,680 --> 00:22:07,680 Now, this hopefully works towards deterrence in the Taiwan 385 00:22:07,680 --> 00:22:09,800 Strait and maintains peace over there. 386 00:22:09,800 --> 00:22:13,760 So I think that might be 1 take away from this episode for 387 00:22:13,760 --> 00:22:15,720 China. But on the other hand, to 388 00:22:15,720 --> 00:22:18,080 Craig's point, I mean, not to get too much into the politics, 389 00:22:18,080 --> 00:22:22,560 of course, this type of raid does set a bad precedent that 390 00:22:22,560 --> 00:22:26,000 other countries can use to, you know, basically for propaganda 391 00:22:26,000 --> 00:22:28,640 purposes against the US at least. 392 00:22:29,080 --> 00:22:32,040 And then at worst, they can use it to justify this kind of 393 00:22:32,080 --> 00:22:34,160 military adventurism on their own. 394 00:22:34,560 --> 00:22:37,520 And, you know, whereas the US used to have the moral authority 395 00:22:37,520 --> 00:22:41,200 to, like, oppose these kind of unilateral military actions. 396 00:22:41,520 --> 00:22:46,080 I think that's something that's definitely being lost, or maybe 397 00:22:46,080 --> 00:22:48,880 it's lost already. Yeah, you sort of wonder if 398 00:22:48,880 --> 00:22:53,560 moral authority even matters anymore or if we've reverted to 399 00:22:53,560 --> 00:22:58,800 this sort of old world order of empires and carving up the globe 400 00:22:58,800 --> 00:23:03,080 in a smoky room somewhere. Because it's really hard to see 401 00:23:03,360 --> 00:23:10,720 how any future US administration could credibly oppose, 402 00:23:10,880 --> 00:23:16,240 rhetorically oppose a similar action by Russia or China in, 403 00:23:16,240 --> 00:23:19,840 you know, their quote, spheres of influence after what's been 404 00:23:19,840 --> 00:23:21,480 done. And I think the really 405 00:23:21,480 --> 00:23:26,320 challenging aspect for the US, and, you know, this would be the 406 00:23:26,320 --> 00:23:29,720 case in in other democracies as well, but it seems particularly 407 00:23:29,720 --> 00:23:33,400 acute in the US, is that there is now seemingly very little 408 00:23:33,400 --> 00:23:37,960 consistency from 1 presidential administration to the next in 409 00:23:37,960 --> 00:23:41,600 terms of policy and how actions are being conducted. 410 00:23:41,600 --> 00:23:46,400 And so even if, you know, maybe more centrist or conventional 411 00:23:46,800 --> 00:23:50,800 administration returns to the White House at some point, you 412 00:23:50,800 --> 00:23:55,320 have to think that the, the trust and credibility is quite 413 00:23:55,840 --> 00:24:00,080 severely damaged, you know, and, and maybe even permanently so on 414 00:24:00,080 --> 00:24:03,280 the part of our both our allies and our adversaries. 415 00:24:03,280 --> 00:24:06,600 And I think that's one of the interesting things about the 416 00:24:06,600 --> 00:24:11,360 Cold War is that although both sides, the US and the the Soviet 417 00:24:11,360 --> 00:24:15,800 Union were engaged in in these proxy wars and they nearly 418 00:24:15,800 --> 00:24:19,880 became hot a few times, there was sort of a predictable amount 419 00:24:19,880 --> 00:24:23,200 of predictability in the behaviour that kind of kept 420 00:24:23,200 --> 00:24:26,720 things to a manageable level, kept it from from really getting 421 00:24:26,720 --> 00:24:29,560 out of hand. And we seem to have lost that in 422 00:24:29,560 --> 00:24:34,080 this kind of brave new world that we find ourselves in. 423 00:24:34,560 --> 00:24:36,880 Well, guys, I think we'll have to leave it there. 424 00:24:36,880 --> 00:24:39,480 We're about out of time. So it's great to talk with you 425 00:24:39,560 --> 00:24:42,960 and we'll speak again soon. Great podcast, Ryan, really good 426 00:24:42,960 --> 00:24:45,240 talking about this. And with luck, you know the news 427 00:24:45,240 --> 00:24:47,440 outlook for the year gets better from here. 428 00:24:48,040 --> 00:24:51,840 Yeah, let's hope everyone has a prosperous 2026 and yeah, 429 00:24:52,080 --> 00:24:54,480 hopefully we're still here in three weeks time when when we 430 00:24:54,480 --> 00:25:00,560 record the next one. You've been listening to Flight 431 00:25:00,560 --> 00:25:03,360 Global Focus, which is a production of Flight Global with 432 00:25:03,360 --> 00:25:06,840 audio editing by Lucy Johnson. If you want to get in touch with 433 00:25:06,840 --> 00:25:10,400 us or reach out about commercial opportunities related to the 434 00:25:10,400 --> 00:25:14,480 podcast, please e-mail podcast at flightglobal.com. 435 00:25:14,880 --> 00:25:17,560 Listen, rate, review and subscribe wherever you get your 436 00:25:17,560 --> 00:25:19,800 podcast. And please join us again next 437 00:25:19,800 --> 00:25:22,880 week for more in depth analysis covering the latest developments 438 00:25:22,880 --> 00:25:25,000 in airlines, defence and aerospace. 439 00:25:25,320 --> 00:25:27,960 I'm Ryan Finnerty, and we'll see you next time for Flight Global 440 00:25:27,960 --> 00:25:28,520 Focus.