1 00:00:07,960 --> 00:00:11,040 Welcome to Flight Global Focus, your essential podcast for 2 00:00:11,040 --> 00:00:14,360 trusted aviation insight. Hello, I'm John Hemmerdinger, 3 00:00:14,360 --> 00:00:17,320 Flight Global's Aerospace Editor based in the USA. 4 00:00:17,560 --> 00:00:20,960 I'm joined by two London-based colleagues, Flight, Global, Air 5 00:00:20,960 --> 00:00:24,440 Transport and Aerospace editors David Kaminski Morrow and 6 00:00:24,440 --> 00:00:26,320 Dominic Perry. Hello, John. 7 00:00:27,120 --> 00:00:30,760 And hello John, you catch us for a rare occasion in the same 8 00:00:30,760 --> 00:00:39,240 room. In the last three weeks, Flight 9 00:00:39,240 --> 00:00:42,160 Global's been on the ground at three major trade shows. 10 00:00:42,160 --> 00:00:46,320 Those are Aircraft Interiors Expo, which was in Hamburg, 11 00:00:46,600 --> 00:00:50,120 Arrow Friedrich Schaffen in southern Germany, and the MRO, 12 00:00:50,120 --> 00:00:54,240 America's trade show in Orlando. As always, the exhibitions 13 00:00:54,240 --> 00:00:57,200 provide a glimpse into where the sector is headed, revealing 14 00:00:57,200 --> 00:01:00,080 innovations on the horizon, highlighting challenges and 15 00:01:00,080 --> 00:01:01,760 stresses simmering in the background. 16 00:01:02,080 --> 00:01:04,599 The most concerning of those stresses is probably the 17 00:01:04,599 --> 00:01:07,680 continued high price of jet fuel, the results of the near 18 00:01:07,680 --> 00:01:11,280 closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which some 20% of the 19 00:01:11,280 --> 00:01:14,680 world's crude oil once flowed but no longer does. 20 00:01:14,880 --> 00:01:19,200 That issue was front and centre at MRO America's last week, and 21 00:01:19,200 --> 00:01:22,440 if it was not widely discussed at the other shows, it was no 22 00:01:22,440 --> 00:01:24,480 doubt high on the minds of attendees. 23 00:01:24,960 --> 00:01:27,600 We'll spend this episode discussing the broad trends 24 00:01:27,600 --> 00:01:30,080 coming out of those shows, trends that will no doubt 25 00:01:30,080 --> 00:01:33,080 resurface in July at the sector's largest exhibition of 26 00:01:33,080 --> 00:01:35,400 the year. The Farnborough International 27 00:01:35,400 --> 00:01:39,080 Air Show will be there also. So David, I want to start with 28 00:01:39,080 --> 00:01:40,840 you. You were with the Flight Daily 29 00:01:40,840 --> 00:01:44,040 News team that was on the ground in Hamburg at AIX. 30 00:01:44,560 --> 00:01:47,240 You were looking at some of the latest developments in passenger 31 00:01:47,240 --> 00:01:51,280 comfort and aircraft cabins and cabin technologies. 32 00:01:51,560 --> 00:01:53,160 I've been to that event once before. 33 00:01:53,160 --> 00:01:56,320 It is a massive event and it's interesting because I don't 34 00:01:56,320 --> 00:02:00,360 always cover or maybe rarely cover some of the products that 35 00:02:00,360 --> 00:02:02,280 come out of it. And I haven't been there in a 36 00:02:02,280 --> 00:02:04,120 few years. So why don't you start by 37 00:02:04,120 --> 00:02:06,280 telling us about it? What was the what was the theme? 38 00:02:06,280 --> 00:02:08,479 Are there any overarching themes to this year's show? 39 00:02:08,479 --> 00:02:10,840 Anything in particular you'd like to call attention to? 40 00:02:11,520 --> 00:02:15,280 Well, it was a it was a 25th outing for this show, but only 41 00:02:15,280 --> 00:02:18,480 the first outing for me. It was my first time there and 42 00:02:18,480 --> 00:02:21,640 you're right is it is a huge, huge show and it kind of double 43 00:02:21,640 --> 00:02:24,800 S with the airline catering event in the on the other side 44 00:02:24,800 --> 00:02:28,160 of the hall. So it's extraordinarily popular. 45 00:02:28,560 --> 00:02:31,840 The big theme of the show this year was what they were calling 46 00:02:31,840 --> 00:02:35,920 the convergent cabin, which is like bringing together a various 47 00:02:36,000 --> 00:02:41,960 high profile topics like high bandwidth Internet and the use 48 00:02:42,040 --> 00:02:46,480 of artificial intelligence. And inevitably there was a a 49 00:02:46,480 --> 00:02:50,160 sustainability theme as well. When you look at future capital 50 00:02:50,160 --> 00:02:52,280 interiors and, and you're talking about kind of the end of 51 00:02:52,280 --> 00:02:57,360 the decade, 2030 and beyond, I think there's this drive towards 52 00:02:57,400 --> 00:03:02,400 intelligent and adaptive systems that are becoming more personal, 53 00:03:02,400 --> 00:03:07,040 systems that actually solve real human problems and using 54 00:03:07,040 --> 00:03:10,880 technology that addresses issues like accessibility and 55 00:03:10,880 --> 00:03:15,520 inclusivity rather than just adding like passenger gadgets, 56 00:03:15,520 --> 00:03:20,200 if you like, and doing all that with systems that are lighter, 57 00:03:20,240 --> 00:03:25,000 so that reduces aircraft weight and intern carbon emissions and 58 00:03:25,000 --> 00:03:29,400 which of course make use of more sustainable materials as well. 59 00:03:29,920 --> 00:03:33,160 David, you mentioned accessibility and inclusivity 60 00:03:33,320 --> 00:03:36,200 and what sort of technologies are are you talking about there? 61 00:03:37,000 --> 00:03:40,960 Oh, John, I think there's a shift from simply trying to just 62 00:03:40,960 --> 00:03:45,240 comply with regulations for inclusivity to actually putting 63 00:03:45,240 --> 00:03:49,360 in place the kind of capabilities which genuinely 64 00:03:49,440 --> 00:03:52,960 preserve passengers sort of dignity and independence. 65 00:03:53,400 --> 00:03:57,480 If you look at as an example, where Deal Aviation has devised 66 00:03:57,480 --> 00:04:02,880 this, this system called a URS, the adaptive user routing system 67 00:04:02,880 --> 00:04:08,360 and that uses tactile and digital guidance like voice to 68 00:04:08,360 --> 00:04:13,000 text technology and that helps visually or hearing impaired 69 00:04:13,000 --> 00:04:15,240 passengers in the aircraft washrooms. 70 00:04:15,760 --> 00:04:20,079 Collins Aerospace has found a way of turning the unpopular 71 00:04:20,079 --> 00:04:22,440 seats that you find in the back row of aircraft. 72 00:04:22,440 --> 00:04:25,520 They found a way of turning that into a private retreat. 73 00:04:25,520 --> 00:04:28,960 They call it the Sky Nook, and that's potentially quite 74 00:04:28,960 --> 00:04:32,840 valuable to neurodiverse passengers or passengers that 75 00:04:32,840 --> 00:04:37,920 need service animals or those of who've simply got a baby in a 76 00:04:37,920 --> 00:04:41,240 cot that they want an extra place to, to keep it, to look 77 00:04:41,240 --> 00:04:43,920 after it. Airbus has been also testing a 78 00:04:43,920 --> 00:04:47,640 system that allows reduced mobility passengers to stay in 79 00:04:47,640 --> 00:04:51,080 their own personal wheelchair when when they're on board the 80 00:04:51,080 --> 00:04:53,040 aircraft. I mean, that's still in testing. 81 00:04:53,280 --> 00:04:57,520 And there's obviously a lot of issues that have to be gone 82 00:04:57,520 --> 00:05:00,600 through with regulators about that and certification, but you 83 00:05:00,600 --> 00:05:03,840 can kind of look forward to seeing that on board aircraft 84 00:05:03,840 --> 00:05:06,640 hopefully in the next next few years or so. 85 00:05:07,280 --> 00:05:11,160 You and I, David and Dom, we're usually in the back of the bus, 86 00:05:11,560 --> 00:05:15,440 but the shows are often about what's up at the front of the 87 00:05:15,440 --> 00:05:18,440 aircraft and not always, of course, the, the coach seats 88 00:05:18,440 --> 00:05:20,680 are, are always on display there also. 89 00:05:20,680 --> 00:05:23,120 But but talk to me about the front of the aircraft, the first 90 00:05:23,120 --> 00:05:26,280 class, business class. What types of innovations or 91 00:05:26,280 --> 00:05:30,360 products were on display? Oh yeah, we're well, I think, I 92 00:05:30,360 --> 00:05:32,680 think we're all familiar with being down the wrong end of the 93 00:05:32,680 --> 00:05:34,480 aeroplane. And if you're one of those 94 00:05:34,480 --> 00:05:37,000 that's sort of lucky enough to get to turn left when you get on 95 00:05:37,000 --> 00:05:40,360 board, then yeah, there's there's some pretty spectacular 96 00:05:40,360 --> 00:05:43,840 kits kicking around. I think one of the centrepieces 97 00:05:43,880 --> 00:05:48,600 that this show is Airbus has come up with what they're 98 00:05:48,600 --> 00:05:52,160 calling first class master suite, which they're looking at 99 00:05:52,160 --> 00:05:55,600 putting on board the A 350-1000. That's that's the aeroplane that 100 00:05:55,600 --> 00:05:58,520 they're now calling their flagship. 101 00:05:58,520 --> 00:06:02,480 Now that the the A380 is kind of being hostile off to the side. 102 00:06:03,160 --> 00:06:07,520 And this, this master suite is an enclosed zone for two 103 00:06:07,520 --> 00:06:09,600 passengers in the centre of the forward cabin. 104 00:06:10,120 --> 00:06:15,040 And that comes with a a double bed, it comes with an en suite 105 00:06:15,040 --> 00:06:18,960 lavatory, if you please, a private bar and it makes use of 106 00:06:18,960 --> 00:06:21,360 these big or wrap around video screens. 107 00:06:21,760 --> 00:06:24,880 And that kind of wrap around touchscreen technology is also 108 00:06:24,880 --> 00:06:29,760 something that was being shown off in this concept from Saffron 109 00:06:29,760 --> 00:06:32,520 and Rave Aerospace. This concept called Origin, 110 00:06:33,040 --> 00:06:36,840 where they combine the video screen with an adaptive seat 111 00:06:37,400 --> 00:06:40,560 that automatically adjusts with inflatable cushions to relieve 112 00:06:40,560 --> 00:06:44,200 pressure during long haul flights and automatic 113 00:06:44,200 --> 00:06:47,320 temperature control. And it's all clever stuff. 114 00:06:47,320 --> 00:06:51,560 But these these video wars are quite impressive to see because 115 00:06:51,560 --> 00:06:56,000 they really immerse you. It almost feels like you're no 116 00:06:56,000 --> 00:06:58,080 longer sat next to an aircraft window. 117 00:06:58,080 --> 00:07:00,680 You're you're almost sat next to whatever landscape you you you 118 00:07:00,680 --> 00:07:04,120 choose to be. David, can you can you set it so 119 00:07:04,120 --> 00:07:07,480 that it shows the view outside the aircraft? 120 00:07:08,080 --> 00:07:11,080 You could probably easily programme it to do that. 121 00:07:11,080 --> 00:07:15,520 They were at the show, they were showing how you can just 122 00:07:15,520 --> 00:07:17,840 watching a regular movie, you can sort of place it on 123 00:07:17,840 --> 00:07:21,200 different parts of the screen. You can adapt the that part of 124 00:07:21,200 --> 00:07:24,440 the cabin so you can invite somebody else in and and shift 125 00:07:24,440 --> 00:07:26,880 the movie screen around so you can both watch it at the same 126 00:07:26,880 --> 00:07:28,120 time. So it's kind of like an in 127 00:07:28,120 --> 00:07:31,360 flight cinema. Or you can change the wall 128 00:07:31,400 --> 00:07:37,200 entirely to things like a sunset or a beach or a bar if they're 129 00:07:37,200 --> 00:07:39,960 serving drinks or coffee bar if they're serving coffee. 130 00:07:40,200 --> 00:07:44,680 So it gives you that kind of very immersive feeling. 131 00:07:45,200 --> 00:07:49,240 And it's, it's the kind of thing I think you might end up 132 00:07:49,240 --> 00:07:52,760 experiencing if you were on a sort of a private biz jet. 133 00:07:53,680 --> 00:07:57,480 And funnily enough, the show has kind of been adapted to it's, 134 00:07:57,480 --> 00:08:01,080 it's expanding into the sort of the biz jet theme it had this 135 00:08:01,080 --> 00:08:03,320 year, the first biz jet interior section. 136 00:08:03,320 --> 00:08:06,520 So they're moving into this kind of high end seating and 137 00:08:06,520 --> 00:08:10,120 outfitting that you'd find in the private jet sector. 138 00:08:10,400 --> 00:08:13,600 And you can see a kind of convergence of biz jet 139 00:08:13,600 --> 00:08:17,680 operations and cabins with premium operations that you'll 140 00:08:17,680 --> 00:08:20,640 find in regular airlines. It feels almost like a nice 141 00:08:20,640 --> 00:08:24,200 segue there, John, into into Aero Friedrichshafen. 142 00:08:24,720 --> 00:08:26,480 Oh, yeah. So Dom, you were there and it 143 00:08:26,480 --> 00:08:28,120 was, it was last week, wasn't it? 144 00:08:28,320 --> 00:08:33,520 It was last week, Yeah, it was sunny but cold by the shores of 145 00:08:33,520 --> 00:08:36,400 Lake Constance. Yeah, and that is that outside? 146 00:08:36,400 --> 00:08:38,440 What city is that near? Where do you fly into? 147 00:08:38,440 --> 00:08:41,000 Well, it's not really near anywhere, which is why one of 148 00:08:41,000 --> 00:08:43,640 the reasons why this show is a bit of an oddity. 149 00:08:44,320 --> 00:08:48,280 You fly to Zurich or you fly to Stuttgart and then you get 150 00:08:48,280 --> 00:08:51,360 transport from there. Friedrichshafen does have an 151 00:08:51,360 --> 00:08:54,560 airport which has about one flight a day from nowhere 152 00:08:54,560 --> 00:08:56,720 useful. So it's quite strange. 153 00:08:56,720 --> 00:09:00,080 Which is possibly explains its popularity as a general aviation 154 00:09:00,080 --> 00:09:02,360 airport and indeed the popularity of the show. 155 00:09:02,720 --> 00:09:06,360 So you were just there and, and I'll mention that we know that 156 00:09:06,360 --> 00:09:09,440 EBASE was cancelled this year sort of last minute, I think 157 00:09:09,440 --> 00:09:11,400 about two weeks before it was supposed to go off. 158 00:09:11,760 --> 00:09:14,360 And ebase is the big European business jet show. 159 00:09:14,360 --> 00:09:18,000 It was cancelled and Arrow, Friedrich Chaffin comes on the 160 00:09:18,000 --> 00:09:19,640 heels of that. I think there was some business 161 00:09:19,640 --> 00:09:22,280 aviation presence there, but what was the show like? 162 00:09:22,640 --> 00:09:26,080 Yeah, it's always been a a busy show, but it's it's always been 163 00:09:26,080 --> 00:09:31,040 a show for for general aviation so much at the smaller end, lots 164 00:09:31,040 --> 00:09:34,640 of light sport aircraft, ultralights, that kind of thing. 165 00:09:35,640 --> 00:09:39,440 But business aviation has been slowly muscling its way in, if 166 00:09:39,440 --> 00:09:44,280 you like, not least that eBay has been declining for a number 167 00:09:44,280 --> 00:09:47,360 of years. So this year particularly eBay 168 00:09:47,400 --> 00:09:50,520 was cancelled I think on the 10th of April, which is not very 169 00:09:50,520 --> 00:09:55,080 long ago and I think 8 weeks at most before it was meant to go 170 00:09:55,080 --> 00:09:58,000 ahead. So there has been a bit of an 171 00:09:58,000 --> 00:10:02,720 influx in to Arrow Friedrichshafen, possibly not as 172 00:10:02,720 --> 00:10:05,120 much as they could have been given the short notice. 173 00:10:05,120 --> 00:10:07,400 I was told by some of the organisers that they were having 174 00:10:07,400 --> 00:10:09,680 to turn people away just through lack of space. 175 00:10:10,200 --> 00:10:13,880 It's very hard to accommodate more attendees at such short 176 00:10:13,880 --> 00:10:18,400 notice right at last minute. But nonetheless, yeah, it's 177 00:10:18,400 --> 00:10:22,280 definitely growing. The question is whether ebay's 178 00:10:22,280 --> 00:10:26,800 can ever come back. Now the momentum appears to be 179 00:10:26,800 --> 00:10:29,040 shifting to Aero. Right. 180 00:10:29,040 --> 00:10:33,440 And ebay's had a bit of a downturn in recent years, even 181 00:10:33,440 --> 00:10:37,120 before cancelling this year's show. 182 00:10:37,120 --> 00:10:40,000 And and there has been some question in recent years if the 183 00:10:40,000 --> 00:10:42,320 show will relocate to somewhere else in Europe. 184 00:10:42,880 --> 00:10:44,560 And we don't know yet for next year. 185 00:10:45,080 --> 00:10:48,520 But do you foresee Arrow Friedrich Schaffen maybe being a 186 00:10:48,880 --> 00:10:52,120 a transplant of ebase? A new ebase held on the other 187 00:10:52,120 --> 00:10:54,680 side of the Alps? Hard to say. 188 00:10:54,880 --> 00:10:59,720 I know it wants to be, but the question is whether it can be. 189 00:10:59,720 --> 00:11:03,480 I mean, certainly this year the business aviation sector if you 190 00:11:03,480 --> 00:11:06,520 like of the show was bigger than ever before. 191 00:11:06,520 --> 00:11:11,280 And in addition to there being aircraft and aircraft 192 00:11:11,280 --> 00:11:15,120 manufacturers, there were some of the the support businesses 193 00:11:15,120 --> 00:11:17,760 that were pitching up in this show as well. 194 00:11:18,760 --> 00:11:24,800 But what hasn't happened yet is a replication of of ebase or NB 195 00:11:24,800 --> 00:11:28,480 AA base for that matter, where you have a sequence of press 196 00:11:28,480 --> 00:11:32,160 conferences from those big manufacturers on on the show's 197 00:11:32,160 --> 00:11:35,520 opening morning, there were no press conferences to speak of 198 00:11:35,600 --> 00:11:38,520 from the business aviation sector. 199 00:11:39,240 --> 00:11:42,160 Sure, they were the likes of Daya and other people who who 200 00:11:42,160 --> 00:11:46,440 sort of straddle both worlds, but you know, Eric Martel from 201 00:11:46,440 --> 00:11:50,400 Bombardier wasn't there. Eric Trapier from Dasseau wasn't 202 00:11:50,400 --> 00:11:51,920 there. And the same could be said for 203 00:11:51,920 --> 00:11:55,720 most of the the big business aviation companies. 204 00:11:55,720 --> 00:11:58,440 So although they had aircraft on the ground, there was no real 205 00:11:58,640 --> 00:12:01,960 talking head presence. The possible exception to this 206 00:12:01,960 --> 00:12:04,880 is Textron Aviation, which brought, as far as I can tell, 207 00:12:04,880 --> 00:12:08,880 most of its aircraft and also gave a European show debut to 208 00:12:08,880 --> 00:12:12,120 its new Citation Ascend. So will business aviation's 209 00:12:12,120 --> 00:12:15,800 presence grow further? Almost certainly, But Aeros 210 00:12:15,800 --> 00:12:19,480 organisers, they have to tread this really fine line between 211 00:12:19,480 --> 00:12:23,000 encouraging and growing that presence and, you know, serving 212 00:12:23,000 --> 00:12:26,480 as a forum for that industry which seems to be in demand 213 00:12:26,480 --> 00:12:30,480 despite ebase managing to shoot itself in its own foot multiple 214 00:12:30,480 --> 00:12:33,920 times. But do you then risk losing what 215 00:12:34,280 --> 00:12:36,640 makes Eric Frederick Schaffen special? 216 00:12:36,640 --> 00:12:42,000 That that buzz you get from lots of small aircraft? 217 00:12:42,200 --> 00:12:46,760 It's a huge, it's huge variety of aircraft and show and a lot 218 00:12:46,760 --> 00:12:51,280 of the visitors for that part of the show won't care so much 219 00:12:51,480 --> 00:12:54,920 about the the big business jets because they just aren't in the 220 00:12:54,920 --> 00:12:57,400 market for them. They want something they can fly 221 00:12:57,400 --> 00:13:01,600 themselves, not something that they could never conceivably 222 00:13:01,600 --> 00:13:03,480 afford. So you you mentioned these 223 00:13:03,480 --> 00:13:06,880 smaller aircraft and I know you wrote a lot about some of the 224 00:13:07,200 --> 00:13:09,320 programmes that were there. Tell us about them. 225 00:13:09,320 --> 00:13:11,080 What? What stood out other than the 226 00:13:11,080 --> 00:13:13,360 big jets that were there? I know everyone's going to have 227 00:13:13,360 --> 00:13:18,480 different views on this and to an extent it depends on which 228 00:13:18,480 --> 00:13:21,480 areas of the show you were most keen on or which you were tasked 229 00:13:21,480 --> 00:13:22,680 with covering. If you like. 230 00:13:23,400 --> 00:13:26,280 Not least, there are 12 halls there so it is almost impossible 231 00:13:26,280 --> 00:13:27,880 to cover everything that is there. 232 00:13:28,360 --> 00:13:30,760 For me really the interesting thing was the growth of the 233 00:13:31,160 --> 00:13:33,440 alternative propulsion segment if you like. 234 00:13:34,200 --> 00:13:38,160 Arrow had its own dedicated E flight Expo in Hall A7 if I 235 00:13:38,160 --> 00:13:41,880 remember correctly. But outside of that, there were 236 00:13:41,880 --> 00:13:45,520 companies elsewhere at the show who were also pushing that low 237 00:13:45,520 --> 00:13:48,000 emissions message, that low emissions technology. 238 00:13:49,320 --> 00:13:52,560 And it's hard to say what impact the current high cost of fuel is 239 00:13:52,560 --> 00:13:55,080 having on your average general aviation operator. 240 00:13:55,160 --> 00:13:58,320 But I can only imagine they're looking at the opportunities 241 00:13:58,720 --> 00:14:02,240 that electrification brings to reduce their the cost of their 242 00:14:02,240 --> 00:14:04,760 fuel, if you like. And the other point worth noting 243 00:14:04,760 --> 00:14:08,520 is that those technologies being matured on those smaller 244 00:14:08,520 --> 00:14:13,200 aircraft batteries, hydrogen fuel cells, all of that will 245 00:14:13,200 --> 00:14:18,240 eventually move across to larger aircraft, to those commercial 246 00:14:18,240 --> 00:14:21,080 aircraft that take hundreds of passengers from A to B. 247 00:14:21,680 --> 00:14:25,880 General aviation, it seems as an important proving ground for 248 00:14:25,880 --> 00:14:29,560 that technology, which I think to some extent is why Airbus was 249 00:14:29,560 --> 00:14:32,120 speaking at the hydrogen and Battery Summit. 250 00:14:32,160 --> 00:14:35,600 That was at the event, too. There was a launch of this 251 00:14:35,600 --> 00:14:38,760 year's show as well, with Volocopter unveiling it's Volo X 252 00:14:38,760 --> 00:14:43,240 Pro, which aside from the dreadful name is A2 passenger 253 00:14:43,280 --> 00:14:47,160 evitol aircraft aimed partly at the GA market. 254 00:14:48,680 --> 00:14:51,680 And as well as it being an actual aircraft launch, it's 255 00:14:51,720 --> 00:14:55,840 almost a relaunch of the company too, which this time last year 256 00:14:55,840 --> 00:15:00,280 had only just been bought out of insolvency by Diamond Aircraft. 257 00:15:00,800 --> 00:15:04,160 And I will give a special mention to Yonkers Aircraft who 258 00:15:04,440 --> 00:15:08,920 had, it's a 60 on display for the first time hot off receiving 259 00:15:08,920 --> 00:15:12,440 certification for the aircraft. It's by far and away the nicest 260 00:15:12,440 --> 00:15:15,760 aircraft I saw. It's a really modern 261 00:15:15,760 --> 00:15:19,840 interpretation of that Yonkers corrugated airframe styling. 262 00:15:19,840 --> 00:15:25,040 And if I had $250,000 and had a pilot's licence, I would gladly 263 00:15:25,040 --> 00:15:28,000 spend money on that. So that was very much Eric 264 00:15:28,000 --> 00:15:30,640 Friedrich's often, which I'm glad I don't have to say again. 265 00:15:31,200 --> 00:15:35,720 John, you were at MRO Americas. What were some of the top themes 266 00:15:35,720 --> 00:15:39,560 coming out of that? Yeah, the MRO America show was 267 00:15:39,560 --> 00:15:42,280 notable for a number of reasons. Some. 268 00:15:42,600 --> 00:15:46,440 First of all, the maintenance industry is flying high. 269 00:15:47,080 --> 00:15:50,520 Aftermarket services are in incredibly high demand. 270 00:15:50,800 --> 00:15:53,120 They have been for the last several years. 271 00:15:53,120 --> 00:15:57,840 This all came out of the COVID-19 pandemic and Airbus and 272 00:15:57,840 --> 00:16:00,440 Boeing are ramping production and everyone's ramping 273 00:16:00,440 --> 00:16:02,200 production. All the business jet makers, all 274 00:16:02,720 --> 00:16:05,760 the general aviation aircraft makers across the board, all the 275 00:16:05,760 --> 00:16:08,040 suppliers are ramping production, trying to, they're 276 00:16:08,040 --> 00:16:12,000 doing it amid now ongoing labour shortages and parts shortages 277 00:16:12,000 --> 00:16:14,120 and such. But the industry is, is doing 278 00:16:14,120 --> 00:16:17,000 great. It's flying high and making more 279 00:16:17,000 --> 00:16:20,240 money than ever. But at the same time, there was 280 00:16:20,680 --> 00:16:24,640 in some circles of this, of this event, there was a a sense of 281 00:16:25,400 --> 00:16:28,120 uncertainty and a rather deep sense of uncertainty. 282 00:16:28,440 --> 00:16:31,080 A lot of this uncertainty stems from the high cost of fuel. 283 00:16:31,080 --> 00:16:37,840 Fuel's about it was about $4.30 a gallon jet fuel last week. 284 00:16:37,840 --> 00:16:40,320 That's up almost double from the beginning of January. 285 00:16:40,600 --> 00:16:44,480 And so the maintenance providers are looking closely at that jet 286 00:16:44,480 --> 00:16:46,160 fuel. They're looking closely at 287 00:16:46,160 --> 00:16:49,280 airline customers and those airlines are actually already 288 00:16:49,280 --> 00:16:52,840 starting to cut capacity. There is concern that aircraft 289 00:16:52,840 --> 00:16:57,800 may be grounded and that these issues could seep into the into 290 00:16:57,800 --> 00:17:01,560 the maintenance sector, but. How does it impact the MRO 291 00:17:01,560 --> 00:17:04,400 industry? Well, it it doesn't impact them 292 00:17:04,400 --> 00:17:07,640 yet, but it could. And it depends on how long the 293 00:17:07,640 --> 00:17:09,720 downturn lasts, how severe it is. 294 00:17:10,319 --> 00:17:15,839 And even if the war in Iran ended tomorrow, it would be 295 00:17:16,520 --> 00:17:20,920 several months by some estimates a year before the oil and the 296 00:17:20,920 --> 00:17:25,800 jet fuel supply chain returns to normal and prices return back to 297 00:17:25,800 --> 00:17:28,920 where they were. So the issue of high jet fuel 298 00:17:28,920 --> 00:17:31,400 prices isn't going to end any soon. 299 00:17:32,280 --> 00:17:36,040 And from the people I spoke to at MRO Americas, they, they 300 00:17:36,040 --> 00:17:40,000 recognise sort of a, a mood switch almost overnight in this 301 00:17:40,000 --> 00:17:44,040 sector from being really excited and popping champagne corks, 302 00:17:44,440 --> 00:17:49,400 signing new deals, getting great commissions, to uncertainty 303 00:17:49,400 --> 00:17:51,560 about how the industry's going to shake out in the next few 304 00:17:51,560 --> 00:17:55,000 months. Just last week, we saw this same 305 00:17:55,360 --> 00:17:58,200 question mark on a higher level with GE Aerospace. 306 00:17:58,200 --> 00:18:00,560 They reported their first quarter results and they 307 00:18:00,560 --> 00:18:03,840 actually warned of a downturn in the aftermarket services 308 00:18:03,840 --> 00:18:05,320 business. They didn't say it's for sure, 309 00:18:05,320 --> 00:18:08,720 but they said it could come. And if it does come, it's going 310 00:18:08,720 --> 00:18:10,680 to be delayed. There's going to be a delayed 311 00:18:10,680 --> 00:18:13,080 impact. They didn't say exactly when, 312 00:18:13,080 --> 00:18:16,440 but all this will. The airline cutbacks will take 313 00:18:16,440 --> 00:18:19,480 time to work through the system and and hit the bottom lines of 314 00:18:19,480 --> 00:18:22,640 maintenance providers. If things continue this way, 315 00:18:22,760 --> 00:18:26,560 then what aircraft might be taken out of service first? 316 00:18:26,960 --> 00:18:31,480 Yeah, there is. You would think that the older 317 00:18:31,480 --> 00:18:36,240 jets would be taken out first older a three 20s older 73 318 00:18:36,240 --> 00:18:40,400 sevens, the NGS and and possibly even 75 sevens. 319 00:18:40,400 --> 00:18:43,280 And that's the conventional thinking around this type of 320 00:18:43,840 --> 00:18:47,000 scenario. Whether that plays out this time 321 00:18:47,000 --> 00:18:51,280 around though, is unclear. And the reason is, is due to the 322 00:18:51,960 --> 00:18:54,920 durability issues that are affecting the new generation 323 00:18:54,920 --> 00:18:58,520 engines, the Pratt and Whitney gear turbofans. 324 00:18:58,880 --> 00:19:02,880 Hundreds of those aircraft of A320 Neos are grounded right now 325 00:19:02,880 --> 00:19:05,040 due to Pratt's recall of the GTF. 326 00:19:05,560 --> 00:19:08,880 And also there have been durability problems with CFM 327 00:19:08,880 --> 00:19:11,920 International's leap. Both the 1A and the 1B. 328 00:19:12,040 --> 00:19:15,760 Both those companies are working on these issues, but as several 329 00:19:15,920 --> 00:19:20,000 airline chief executives have said and and other maintenance 330 00:19:20,000 --> 00:19:23,400 experts, the the new generation engines are nowhere near as 331 00:19:23,400 --> 00:19:25,400 reliable as the old generation engines. 332 00:19:25,720 --> 00:19:29,360 And so that could possibly lead airlines to decide to ground 333 00:19:29,360 --> 00:19:31,880 their newer jets rather than their older ones. 334 00:19:32,240 --> 00:19:34,680 But we don't really know yet. It's still a bit early to tell. 335 00:19:35,680 --> 00:19:38,640 It's interesting. I, I was listening to the Safran 336 00:19:38,760 --> 00:19:44,320 first quarter call just yesterday and they offered a 337 00:19:44,320 --> 00:19:48,480 counterpoint to G ES Views in that they thought there would be 338 00:19:48,800 --> 00:19:52,200 no downturn. They weren't seeing people 339 00:19:52,200 --> 00:19:55,120 reduce the work scope or the amount of work they have booked 340 00:19:55,120 --> 00:19:58,760 in, in terms of the service business and they weren't 341 00:19:58,760 --> 00:20:02,560 expecting to see an acceleration in in groundings or aircraft 342 00:20:02,560 --> 00:20:05,280 taken out of service. In their view, because the 343 00:20:05,280 --> 00:20:09,600 industry has been stung before by taking too much capacity out 344 00:20:09,600 --> 00:20:12,320 so that when it does rebound, there's a shortage. 345 00:20:12,320 --> 00:20:15,680 So I think the answer is nobody knows yet. 346 00:20:15,720 --> 00:20:18,320 And and they did caveat that by saying that they were still 347 00:20:18,320 --> 00:20:20,840 being cautious and didn't know how the Middle East conflict 348 00:20:20,840 --> 00:20:23,400 would play out. But it's interesting to to see 349 00:20:23,400 --> 00:20:25,880 that slight divergent of opinion there. 350 00:20:26,080 --> 00:20:27,280 Yeah, it does. It it. 351 00:20:27,280 --> 00:20:29,920 It just speaks to the uncertainty of the entire 352 00:20:29,920 --> 00:20:32,480 situation. One person I spoke with 353 00:20:32,480 --> 00:20:35,600 mentioned specifically power by the hour contracts covering 354 00:20:35,600 --> 00:20:39,840 aircraft to covering engines, and that even if jets aren't 355 00:20:39,840 --> 00:20:44,240 grounded but they're flown less, these contracts or the payments, 356 00:20:44,240 --> 00:20:46,720 the required maintenance is going to be spread over a much 357 00:20:46,720 --> 00:20:49,240 longer time due to flying the aircraft less. 358 00:20:49,240 --> 00:20:52,080 So we just don't know. It's definitely on everyone's 359 00:20:52,080 --> 00:20:55,800 mind and time will tell depending on how long that 360 00:20:55,800 --> 00:20:58,400 Strait of Hormuz remains closed. Thank you, John. 361 00:20:58,400 --> 00:21:01,880 On that note of uncertainty, we will have to end it. 362 00:21:02,280 --> 00:21:03,880 And thank you, David. Thank you. 363 00:21:07,760 --> 00:21:11,240 You've been listening to Flight Global Focus, a Flight Global 364 00:21:11,240 --> 00:21:14,000 production with audio editing by Lucy Johnson. 365 00:21:14,360 --> 00:21:16,680 If you want to get in touch with us or for commercial 366 00:21:16,680 --> 00:21:20,480 opportunities related to the podcast, please e-mail podcast 367 00:21:20,560 --> 00:21:24,280 at flightglobal.com. Listen, rate, review and 368 00:21:24,280 --> 00:21:26,840 subscribe wherever you get your podcasts. 369 00:21:27,320 --> 00:21:30,200 Join us again next week for more in depth analysis covering the 370 00:21:30,200 --> 00:21:33,840 latest developments in airlines, defence and aerospace. 371 00:21:34,320 --> 00:21:35,640 See you next time.