Welcome to Flight Global Focus, your essential podcast for
trusted aviation insight. Hello, I'm John Hemmerdinger,
Flight Global's Aerospace Editor based in the USA.
I'm joined by two London-based colleagues, Flight, Global, Air
Transport and Aerospace editors David Kaminski Morrow and
Dominic Perry. Hello, John.
And hello John, you catch us for a rare occasion in the same
room. In the last three weeks, Flight
Global's been on the ground at three major trade shows.
Those are Aircraft Interiors Expo, which was in Hamburg,
Arrow Friedrich Schaffen in southern Germany, and the MRO,
America's trade show in Orlando. As always, the exhibitions
provide a glimpse into where the sector is headed, revealing
innovations on the horizon, highlighting challenges and
stresses simmering in the background.
The most concerning of those stresses is probably the
continued high price of jet fuel, the results of the near
closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which some 20% of the
world's crude oil once flowed but no longer does.
That issue was front and centre at MRO America's last week, and
if it was not widely discussed at the other shows, it was no
doubt high on the minds of attendees.
We'll spend this episode discussing the broad trends
coming out of those shows, trends that will no doubt
resurface in July at the sector's largest exhibition of
the year. The Farnborough International
Air Show will be there also. So David, I want to start with
you. You were with the Flight Daily
News team that was on the ground in Hamburg at AIX.
You were looking at some of the latest developments in passenger
comfort and aircraft cabins and cabin technologies.
I've been to that event once before.
It is a massive event and it's interesting because I don't
always cover or maybe rarely cover some of the products that
come out of it. And I haven't been there in a
few years. So why don't you start by
telling us about it? What was the what was the theme?
Are there any overarching themes to this year's show?
Anything in particular you'd like to call attention to?
Well, it was a it was a 25th outing for this show, but only
the first outing for me. It was my first time there and
you're right is it is a huge, huge show and it kind of double
S with the airline catering event in the on the other side
of the hall. So it's extraordinarily popular.
The big theme of the show this year was what they were calling
the convergent cabin, which is like bringing together a various
high profile topics like high bandwidth Internet and the use
of artificial intelligence. And inevitably there was a a
sustainability theme as well. When you look at future capital
interiors and, and you're talking about kind of the end of
the decade, 2030 and beyond, I think there's this drive towards
intelligent and adaptive systems that are becoming more personal,
systems that actually solve real human problems and using
technology that addresses issues like accessibility and
inclusivity rather than just adding like passenger gadgets,
if you like, and doing all that with systems that are lighter,
so that reduces aircraft weight and intern carbon emissions and
which of course make use of more sustainable materials as well.
David, you mentioned accessibility and inclusivity
and what sort of technologies are are you talking about there?
Oh, John, I think there's a shift from simply trying to just
comply with regulations for inclusivity to actually putting
in place the kind of capabilities which genuinely
preserve passengers sort of dignity and independence.
If you look at as an example, where Deal Aviation has devised
this, this system called a URS, the adaptive user routing system
and that uses tactile and digital guidance like voice to
text technology and that helps visually or hearing impaired
passengers in the aircraft washrooms.
Collins Aerospace has found a way of turning the unpopular
seats that you find in the back row of aircraft.
They found a way of turning that into a private retreat.
They call it the Sky Nook, and that's potentially quite
valuable to neurodiverse passengers or passengers that
need service animals or those of who've simply got a baby in a
cot that they want an extra place to, to keep it, to look
after it. Airbus has been also testing a
system that allows reduced mobility passengers to stay in
their own personal wheelchair when when they're on board the
aircraft. I mean, that's still in testing.
And there's obviously a lot of issues that have to be gone
through with regulators about that and certification, but you
can kind of look forward to seeing that on board aircraft
hopefully in the next next few years or so.
You and I, David and Dom, we're usually in the back of the bus,
but the shows are often about what's up at the front of the
aircraft and not always, of course, the, the coach seats
are, are always on display there also.
But but talk to me about the front of the aircraft, the first
class, business class. What types of innovations or
products were on display? Oh yeah, we're well, I think, I
think we're all familiar with being down the wrong end of the
aeroplane. And if you're one of those
that's sort of lucky enough to get to turn left when you get on
board, then yeah, there's there's some pretty spectacular
kits kicking around. I think one of the centrepieces
that this show is Airbus has come up with what they're
calling first class master suite, which they're looking at
putting on board the A 350-1000. That's that's the aeroplane that
they're now calling their flagship.
Now that the the A380 is kind of being hostile off to the side.
And this, this master suite is an enclosed zone for two
passengers in the centre of the forward cabin.
And that comes with a a double bed, it comes with an en suite
lavatory, if you please, a private bar and it makes use of
these big or wrap around video screens.
And that kind of wrap around touchscreen technology is also
something that was being shown off in this concept from Saffron
and Rave Aerospace. This concept called Origin,
where they combine the video screen with an adaptive seat
that automatically adjusts with inflatable cushions to relieve
pressure during long haul flights and automatic
temperature control. And it's all clever stuff.
But these these video wars are quite impressive to see because
they really immerse you. It almost feels like you're no
longer sat next to an aircraft window.
You're you're almost sat next to whatever landscape you you you
choose to be. David, can you can you set it so
that it shows the view outside the aircraft?
You could probably easily programme it to do that.
They were at the show, they were showing how you can just
watching a regular movie, you can sort of place it on
different parts of the screen. You can adapt the that part of
the cabin so you can invite somebody else in and and shift
the movie screen around so you can both watch it at the same
time. So it's kind of like an in
flight cinema. Or you can change the wall
entirely to things like a sunset or a beach or a bar if they're
serving drinks or coffee bar if they're serving coffee.
So it gives you that kind of very immersive feeling.
And it's, it's the kind of thing I think you might end up
experiencing if you were on a sort of a private biz jet.
And funnily enough, the show has kind of been adapted to it's,
it's expanding into the sort of the biz jet theme it had this
year, the first biz jet interior section.
So they're moving into this kind of high end seating and
outfitting that you'd find in the private jet sector.
And you can see a kind of convergence of biz jet
operations and cabins with premium operations that you'll
find in regular airlines. It feels almost like a nice
segue there, John, into into Aero Friedrichshafen.
Oh, yeah. So Dom, you were there and it
was, it was last week, wasn't it?
It was last week, Yeah, it was sunny but cold by the shores of
Lake Constance. Yeah, and that is that outside?
What city is that near? Where do you fly into?
Well, it's not really near anywhere, which is why one of
the reasons why this show is a bit of an oddity.
You fly to Zurich or you fly to Stuttgart and then you get
transport from there. Friedrichshafen does have an
airport which has about one flight a day from nowhere
useful. So it's quite strange.
Which is possibly explains its popularity as a general aviation
airport and indeed the popularity of the show.
So you were just there and, and I'll mention that we know that
EBASE was cancelled this year sort of last minute, I think
about two weeks before it was supposed to go off.
And ebase is the big European business jet show.
It was cancelled and Arrow, Friedrich Chaffin comes on the
heels of that. I think there was some business
aviation presence there, but what was the show like?
Yeah, it's always been a a busy show, but it's it's always been
a show for for general aviation so much at the smaller end, lots
of light sport aircraft, ultralights, that kind of thing.
But business aviation has been slowly muscling its way in, if
you like, not least that eBay has been declining for a number
of years. So this year particularly eBay
was cancelled I think on the 10th of April, which is not very
long ago and I think 8 weeks at most before it was meant to go
ahead. So there has been a bit of an
influx in to Arrow Friedrichshafen, possibly not as
much as they could have been given the short notice.
I was told by some of the organisers that they were having
to turn people away just through lack of space.
It's very hard to accommodate more attendees at such short
notice right at last minute. But nonetheless, yeah, it's
definitely growing. The question is whether ebay's
can ever come back. Now the momentum appears to be
shifting to Aero. Right.
And ebay's had a bit of a downturn in recent years, even
before cancelling this year's show.
And and there has been some question in recent years if the
show will relocate to somewhere else in Europe.
And we don't know yet for next year.
But do you foresee Arrow Friedrich Schaffen maybe being a
a transplant of ebase? A new ebase held on the other
side of the Alps? Hard to say.
I know it wants to be, but the question is whether it can be.
I mean, certainly this year the business aviation sector if you
like of the show was bigger than ever before.
And in addition to there being aircraft and aircraft
manufacturers, there were some of the the support businesses
that were pitching up in this show as well.
But what hasn't happened yet is a replication of of ebase or NB
AA base for that matter, where you have a sequence of press
conferences from those big manufacturers on on the show's
opening morning, there were no press conferences to speak of
from the business aviation sector.
Sure, they were the likes of Daya and other people who who
sort of straddle both worlds, but you know, Eric Martel from
Bombardier wasn't there. Eric Trapier from Dasseau wasn't
there. And the same could be said for
most of the the big business aviation companies.
So although they had aircraft on the ground, there was no real
talking head presence. The possible exception to this
is Textron Aviation, which brought, as far as I can tell,
most of its aircraft and also gave a European show debut to
its new Citation Ascend. So will business aviation's
presence grow further? Almost certainly, But Aeros
organisers, they have to tread this really fine line between
encouraging and growing that presence and, you know, serving
as a forum for that industry which seems to be in demand
despite ebase managing to shoot itself in its own foot multiple
times. But do you then risk losing what
makes Eric Frederick Schaffen special?
That that buzz you get from lots of small aircraft?
It's a huge, it's huge variety of aircraft and show and a lot
of the visitors for that part of the show won't care so much
about the the big business jets because they just aren't in the
market for them. They want something they can fly
themselves, not something that they could never conceivably
afford. So you you mentioned these
smaller aircraft and I know you wrote a lot about some of the
programmes that were there. Tell us about them.
What? What stood out other than the
big jets that were there? I know everyone's going to have
different views on this and to an extent it depends on which
areas of the show you were most keen on or which you were tasked
with covering. If you like.
Not least, there are 12 halls there so it is almost impossible
to cover everything that is there.
For me really the interesting thing was the growth of the
alternative propulsion segment if you like.
Arrow had its own dedicated E flight Expo in Hall A7 if I
remember correctly. But outside of that, there were
companies elsewhere at the show who were also pushing that low
emissions message, that low emissions technology.
And it's hard to say what impact the current high cost of fuel is
having on your average general aviation operator.
But I can only imagine they're looking at the opportunities
that electrification brings to reduce their the cost of their
fuel, if you like. And the other point worth noting
is that those technologies being matured on those smaller
aircraft batteries, hydrogen fuel cells, all of that will
eventually move across to larger aircraft, to those commercial
aircraft that take hundreds of passengers from A to B.
General aviation, it seems as an important proving ground for
that technology, which I think to some extent is why Airbus was
speaking at the hydrogen and Battery Summit.
That was at the event, too. There was a launch of this
year's show as well, with Volocopter unveiling it's Volo X
Pro, which aside from the dreadful name is A2 passenger
evitol aircraft aimed partly at the GA market.
And as well as it being an actual aircraft launch, it's
almost a relaunch of the company too, which this time last year
had only just been bought out of insolvency by Diamond Aircraft.
And I will give a special mention to Yonkers Aircraft who
had, it's a 60 on display for the first time hot off receiving
certification for the aircraft. It's by far and away the nicest
aircraft I saw. It's a really modern
interpretation of that Yonkers corrugated airframe styling.
And if I had $250,000 and had a pilot's licence, I would gladly
spend money on that. So that was very much Eric
Friedrich's often, which I'm glad I don't have to say again.
John, you were at MRO Americas. What were some of the top themes
coming out of that? Yeah, the MRO America show was
notable for a number of reasons. Some.
First of all, the maintenance industry is flying high.
Aftermarket services are in incredibly high demand.
They have been for the last several years.
This all came out of the COVID-19 pandemic and Airbus and
Boeing are ramping production and everyone's ramping
production. All the business jet makers, all
the general aviation aircraft makers across the board, all the
suppliers are ramping production, trying to, they're
doing it amid now ongoing labour shortages and parts shortages
and such. But the industry is, is doing
great. It's flying high and making more
money than ever. But at the same time, there was
in some circles of this, of this event, there was a a sense of
uncertainty and a rather deep sense of uncertainty.
A lot of this uncertainty stems from the high cost of fuel.
Fuel's about it was about $4.30 a gallon jet fuel last week.
That's up almost double from the beginning of January.
And so the maintenance providers are looking closely at that jet
fuel. They're looking closely at
airline customers and those airlines are actually already
starting to cut capacity. There is concern that aircraft
may be grounded and that these issues could seep into the into
the maintenance sector, but. How does it impact the MRO
industry? Well, it it doesn't impact them
yet, but it could. And it depends on how long the
downturn lasts, how severe it is.
And even if the war in Iran ended tomorrow, it would be
several months by some estimates a year before the oil and the
jet fuel supply chain returns to normal and prices return back to
where they were. So the issue of high jet fuel
prices isn't going to end any soon.
And from the people I spoke to at MRO Americas, they, they
recognise sort of a, a mood switch almost overnight in this
sector from being really excited and popping champagne corks,
signing new deals, getting great commissions, to uncertainty
about how the industry's going to shake out in the next few
months. Just last week, we saw this same
question mark on a higher level with GE Aerospace.
They reported their first quarter results and they
actually warned of a downturn in the aftermarket services
business. They didn't say it's for sure,
but they said it could come. And if it does come, it's going
to be delayed. There's going to be a delayed
impact. They didn't say exactly when,
but all this will. The airline cutbacks will take
time to work through the system and and hit the bottom lines of
maintenance providers. If things continue this way,
then what aircraft might be taken out of service first?
Yeah, there is. You would think that the older
jets would be taken out first older a three 20s older 73
sevens, the NGS and and possibly even 75 sevens.
And that's the conventional thinking around this type of
scenario. Whether that plays out this time
around though, is unclear. And the reason is, is due to the
durability issues that are affecting the new generation
engines, the Pratt and Whitney gear turbofans.
Hundreds of those aircraft of A320 Neos are grounded right now
due to Pratt's recall of the GTF.
And also there have been durability problems with CFM
International's leap. Both the 1A and the 1B.
Both those companies are working on these issues, but as several
airline chief executives have said and and other maintenance
experts, the the new generation engines are nowhere near as
reliable as the old generation engines.
And so that could possibly lead airlines to decide to ground
their newer jets rather than their older ones.
But we don't really know yet. It's still a bit early to tell.
It's interesting. I, I was listening to the Safran
first quarter call just yesterday and they offered a
counterpoint to G ES Views in that they thought there would be
no downturn. They weren't seeing people
reduce the work scope or the amount of work they have booked
in, in terms of the service business and they weren't
expecting to see an acceleration in in groundings or aircraft
taken out of service. In their view, because the
industry has been stung before by taking too much capacity out
so that when it does rebound, there's a shortage.
So I think the answer is nobody knows yet.
And and they did caveat that by saying that they were still
being cautious and didn't know how the Middle East conflict
would play out. But it's interesting to to see
that slight divergent of opinion there.
Yeah, it does. It it.
It just speaks to the uncertainty of the entire
situation. One person I spoke with
mentioned specifically power by the hour contracts covering
aircraft to covering engines, and that even if jets aren't
grounded but they're flown less, these contracts or the payments,
the required maintenance is going to be spread over a much
longer time due to flying the aircraft less.
So we just don't know. It's definitely on everyone's
mind and time will tell depending on how long that
Strait of Hormuz remains closed. Thank you, John.
On that note of uncertainty, we will have to end it.
And thank you, David. Thank you.
You've been listening to Flight Global Focus, a Flight Global
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