1 00:00:00,280 --> 00:00:03,200 There is a consistency from Donald Trump when it comes to 2 00:00:03,200 --> 00:00:04,760 Iran. He thought there should have 3 00:00:04,760 --> 00:00:08,360 been military action in 1980. It's very clear he thinks that 4 00:00:08,360 --> 00:00:11,160 America should be stronger when it comes to Iran. 5 00:00:11,160 --> 00:00:14,200 And, and although he says no forever wars, everything he's 6 00:00:14,200 --> 00:00:16,040 done shows he is interventionist. 7 00:00:16,280 --> 00:00:19,440 He just wants to highlight America's military might. 8 00:00:19,560 --> 00:00:22,480 What he might have done here is unleash something he can't 9 00:00:22,480 --> 00:00:30,560 control. Hello and welcome to Trump 10 00:00:30,560 --> 00:00:32,920 World. I'm Matt Frey in London. 11 00:00:33,160 --> 00:00:37,320 And I'm Anushka Astana in Washington, DC And Matt, we've 12 00:00:37,320 --> 00:00:40,360 just listened to the man who calls himself the secretary of 13 00:00:40,360 --> 00:00:45,960 War, Pete Hegseth, talking about the justifications for Iran and 14 00:00:45,960 --> 00:00:51,320 talking in particular about the Americans taking out an Iranian 15 00:00:51,320 --> 00:00:52,920 warship. Let's just start by having a 16 00:00:52,920 --> 00:00:58,040 listen to what he said. Last night we sunk their prize 17 00:00:58,040 --> 00:01:04,040 ship, the Soleimani. Looks like POTUS got him twice 18 00:01:05,239 --> 00:01:06,520 their Navy. Not a factor. 19 00:01:06,520 --> 00:01:08,560 Pick your adjective. It is no more. 20 00:01:08,840 --> 00:01:13,520 In fact, yesterday in the Indian Ocean and we'll play it on the 21 00:01:13,520 --> 00:01:17,040 screen there. An American submarine sunk in 22 00:01:17,040 --> 00:01:21,080 Iranian warship that thought it was safe in international 23 00:01:21,080 --> 00:01:23,880 waters. Instead it was sunk by a 24 00:01:23,880 --> 00:01:28,120 torpedo. Quiet Death, the first sinking 25 00:01:28,120 --> 00:01:30,760 of an enemy ship by a torpedo since World War 2. 26 00:01:31,960 --> 00:01:34,920 Matt, when I listen to that, I find it absolutely extraordinary 27 00:01:35,160 --> 00:01:38,720 because they're kind of saying the thing out loud that for 28 00:01:38,720 --> 00:01:42,320 years, for decades, we've heard governments try not to say, 29 00:01:42,560 --> 00:01:45,080 which is they don't care about international law. 30 00:01:45,080 --> 00:01:49,000 They're not even trying to make the legality argument. 31 00:01:49,760 --> 00:01:52,480 I mean, it's a real message to send out there, isn't it? 32 00:01:52,800 --> 00:01:55,000 Absolutely. You know, in the roll out of 33 00:01:55,000 --> 00:01:58,560 the, you know, the different justifications for this war of 34 00:01:58,560 --> 00:02:02,040 choice, which I think we have to reiterate is what it is. 35 00:02:02,040 --> 00:02:04,840 It is a war of choice, not one of necessity. 36 00:02:06,240 --> 00:02:09,639 I think, I believe humbly they keep coming up with different 37 00:02:09,639 --> 00:02:11,640 reasons. And another reason that we heard 38 00:02:11,640 --> 00:02:16,160 today for the first time spelt out in in slightly more detail 39 00:02:16,160 --> 00:02:19,600 than before is what Pete Tex has said about this assassination 40 00:02:19,600 --> 00:02:22,040 plot, alleged plot against Donald Trump. 41 00:02:22,160 --> 00:02:25,360 Now, we we do know that someone was arrested last year when he 42 00:02:25,360 --> 00:02:31,720 was president-elect or the year before who was an Iranian agent 43 00:02:32,160 --> 00:02:35,400 somehow linked to the regime. And now Hexa is claiming that 44 00:02:35,400 --> 00:02:38,480 they they killed the guy who was in charge of the unit that 45 00:02:38,480 --> 00:02:41,600 plotted to assassinate the American president. 46 00:02:42,120 --> 00:02:44,960 I mean, the the so-called Secretary of War went out of his 47 00:02:44,960 --> 00:02:48,200 way to say this was not one of the justifications for going to 48 00:02:48,200 --> 00:02:51,720 war against Iran. But but it but it is there, you 49 00:02:51,720 --> 00:02:54,640 know, in the background. And then he added this line. 50 00:02:55,120 --> 00:02:57,480 President Trump had the last laugh. 51 00:02:57,720 --> 00:03:01,440 I mean, the, the point I think that this makes for me is this 52 00:03:01,440 --> 00:03:05,800 sort of unbearable intellectual lightness of this whole 53 00:03:05,800 --> 00:03:09,280 exercise, The blindness with which they talk about something 54 00:03:09,280 --> 00:03:12,720 as serious as war and whether it's the different 55 00:03:12,720 --> 00:03:15,720 justifications for this war, the fact that they've come up for so 56 00:03:15,720 --> 00:03:18,960 many different reasons of why they went into this conflict. 57 00:03:19,240 --> 00:03:22,520 But also the language, you know, the kind of Rambo language that 58 00:03:22,520 --> 00:03:25,960 they're using even by the standards of of previous wars. 59 00:03:25,960 --> 00:03:29,280 And we had some of that language with George W Bush in Iraq is 60 00:03:29,280 --> 00:03:33,200 really quite extraordinary. And it, I think all, a lot of it 61 00:03:33,200 --> 00:03:37,440 stems from Donald Trump's philosophy of how you exercise 62 00:03:37,440 --> 00:03:39,840 power. It's all about him. 63 00:03:40,040 --> 00:03:42,600 You know, Litasimwa, I'm the state. 64 00:03:42,680 --> 00:03:45,320 I am in charge. I didn't care about Congress. 65 00:03:45,480 --> 00:03:48,480 I didn't care about my allies. I didn't even consult my best 66 00:03:48,480 --> 00:03:50,160 friends in the Gulf before I did this. 67 00:03:50,480 --> 00:03:52,880 You know, I talked to the Israeli Prime Minister a lot. 68 00:03:53,000 --> 00:03:55,400 You know, we're in this together, but no one else is. 69 00:03:55,400 --> 00:03:58,040 And I find that really quite alarming. 70 00:03:58,280 --> 00:04:01,200 It is interesting how Donald Trump himself has also talked 71 00:04:01,200 --> 00:04:04,080 about this idea of they tried to assassinate me, he said. 72 00:04:04,080 --> 00:04:05,440 They tried to kill me a few times. 73 00:04:05,440 --> 00:04:10,040 I got them 1st, but yeah, the reasoning is quite confused. 74 00:04:10,040 --> 00:04:13,240 And the reason it's quite confusing is because they've 75 00:04:13,240 --> 00:04:15,040 given all these different reasons. 76 00:04:15,040 --> 00:04:17,320 In fact, one thing we've been doing this week is trying to 77 00:04:17,320 --> 00:04:21,160 compile some of those reasons. Just have a listen to the 78 00:04:21,160 --> 00:04:27,280 justifications that we've heard. To the great, proud people of 79 00:04:27,280 --> 00:04:31,680 Iran, I say tonight that the hour of your freedom is at hand. 80 00:04:31,920 --> 00:04:34,840 The president's been extremely clear about our objectives, and 81 00:04:34,840 --> 00:04:36,560 it's that Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon. 82 00:04:36,640 --> 00:04:38,920 We knew that there was going to be an Israeli action. 83 00:04:39,000 --> 00:04:41,160 We knew that that would precipitate an attack against 84 00:04:41,160 --> 00:04:44,080 American forces, and we knew that if we didn't preemptively 85 00:04:44,080 --> 00:04:46,720 go after them before they launched those attacks, we would 86 00:04:46,720 --> 00:04:49,480 suffer higher casualties. No, I might have forced that 87 00:04:49,480 --> 00:04:52,840 hand. You see, we were having 88 00:04:52,840 --> 00:04:57,800 negotiations with these lunatics and it was my opinion that they 89 00:04:57,800 --> 00:05:00,080 were going to attack first. They were going to attack if we 90 00:05:00,080 --> 00:05:02,840 didn't do it. The objective was not regime 91 00:05:02,840 --> 00:05:05,560 change. The objective was to take out 92 00:05:05,640 --> 00:05:10,040 those missiles, the short and mid range missiles and their 93 00:05:10,040 --> 00:05:14,560 ability to produce them. #1 Donald Trump comes out, he talks 94 00:05:14,560 --> 00:05:16,960 about regime change, and we can discuss that. 95 00:05:16,960 --> 00:05:21,080 Number 2, they're talking about trying to make sure Iran doesn't 96 00:05:21,080 --> 00:05:24,400 have nuclear capability, although of course, just months 97 00:05:24,400 --> 00:05:27,720 ago they told us they had obliterated Iran's nuclear 98 00:05:27,720 --> 00:05:29,400 capability. A bit of a contradiction there. 99 00:05:29,840 --> 00:05:31,560 Yeah. And then, and then the reason 100 00:05:31,560 --> 00:05:35,280 which I think Marco Rubio actually accidentally said out 101 00:05:35,280 --> 00:05:38,600 loud was the real thinking behind the scenes. 102 00:05:38,600 --> 00:05:41,680 Because the reality is you can have a moral argument about why 103 00:05:41,680 --> 00:05:44,960 you go to war. We heard that back when Iraq 104 00:05:44,960 --> 00:05:47,680 happened in 2003, and we hear it now. 105 00:05:47,680 --> 00:05:51,560 The moral reason is that these are evil, murderous regimes. 106 00:05:51,560 --> 00:05:54,680 But always behind the scenes, you also have to have a legal 107 00:05:54,680 --> 00:05:57,800 reason, a legal rationale for why you're going ahead. 108 00:05:57,800 --> 00:06:00,800 And what Marco Rubio did in Congress this week and then 109 00:06:01,040 --> 00:06:04,240 clearly panicked about it. Because, you know, in the next 110 00:06:04,240 --> 00:06:06,720 appearance the next day, he was trying to say, I didn't really 111 00:06:06,720 --> 00:06:10,920 say what you literally heard me say, which is the rationale that 112 00:06:10,920 --> 00:06:13,480 there was an imminent threat. And it's a slightly bizarre 113 00:06:13,480 --> 00:06:16,080 rationale because the argument was, Israel, we're going to 114 00:06:16,080 --> 00:06:18,360 strike with or without us. That's clearly what Benjamin 115 00:06:18,360 --> 00:06:22,280 Netanyahu told Donald Trump when he was here in February. 116 00:06:22,760 --> 00:06:26,840 And the response to that would have been that Iran was 117 00:06:26,840 --> 00:06:31,560 basically going to hit American military sites and kill American 118 00:06:31,560 --> 00:06:33,320 people. And that's why we believe there 119 00:06:33,320 --> 00:06:36,600 was an imminent threat. But it it, it's a kind of 120 00:06:36,720 --> 00:06:38,920 strange argument. And it's definitely the one they 121 00:06:38,920 --> 00:06:40,960 made to lawmakers because I was standing there when the 122 00:06:40,960 --> 00:06:44,680 lawmakers emerged. Mike Johnson, who is, you know, 123 00:06:44,680 --> 00:06:47,920 the Republican speaker of the House, was absolutely clear. 124 00:06:47,920 --> 00:06:49,840 He said this is the reason they gave us. 125 00:06:50,880 --> 00:06:55,120 And he he said it in in explicit terms, This is not about regime 126 00:06:55,120 --> 00:06:58,000 change. But I remembered so well because 127 00:06:58,000 --> 00:07:01,440 I was in Washington at the time, the build up to the Iraq war 128 00:07:01,800 --> 00:07:05,440 and, you know, the proposition of going after Saddam Hussein, 129 00:07:05,440 --> 00:07:10,160 who had nothing to do with 9/11 in the kind of post 911 white 130 00:07:10,160 --> 00:07:14,560 hot spirit of revenge was, you know, questionable at the time. 131 00:07:15,320 --> 00:07:17,560 The difference was that the majority of the American public 132 00:07:17,560 --> 00:07:20,960 was very much behind that war, at the beginning at least. 133 00:07:21,720 --> 00:07:27,320 And George W Bush went out to sell that war, that reason, that 134 00:07:27,320 --> 00:07:30,560 Kazu's belly, that reason for going to war over and over again 135 00:07:30,560 --> 00:07:35,000 to his allies, to the United Nations, to the American public, 136 00:07:35,360 --> 00:07:39,040 to Congress. And we know how that war of 137 00:07:39,040 --> 00:07:43,480 choice ended, and it ended disastrously, OK, Saddam Hussein 138 00:07:43,480 --> 00:07:47,480 was removed, but Iraq descended into virtual civil war. 139 00:07:47,480 --> 00:07:50,800 The country is still suffering from the after effects of that 140 00:07:50,800 --> 00:07:53,920 invasion. We also know how Afghanistan 141 00:07:53,920 --> 00:07:55,560 ended. I mean, America has had a 142 00:07:55,600 --> 00:07:58,160 terrible record with wars of choice. 143 00:07:58,560 --> 00:08:02,040 And I'm afraid whatever reasons they come up with now, it, it 144 00:08:02,160 --> 00:08:04,880 you know, it's, it's, it's fishy, right? 145 00:08:04,880 --> 00:08:09,400 It doesn't, it doesn't sound to me as convincing even as some of 146 00:08:09,400 --> 00:08:12,480 the arguments that we heard in 2003, especially because they 147 00:08:12,480 --> 00:08:14,640 keep changing their mind. So I think if you're Donald 148 00:08:14,640 --> 00:08:17,680 Trump and you you got into politics because you didn't 149 00:08:17,680 --> 00:08:21,320 believe America should be going to war unless it was absolutely 150 00:08:21,320 --> 00:08:24,360 necessary, and now you're doing precisely the thing that you 151 00:08:24,760 --> 00:08:27,960 didn't want to do, it raises a really fundamental question 152 00:08:28,800 --> 00:08:32,760 about his state of mind. And I think just cast your mind 153 00:08:32,760 --> 00:08:35,000 back, Anushka, to, you know, Christmas Day. 154 00:08:35,360 --> 00:08:38,880 I mean, on Christmas Day, he'd already bombed Nigeria. 155 00:08:39,440 --> 00:08:44,120 A few days later, he took out Nicolas Maduro of, I mean, 156 00:08:44,120 --> 00:08:46,480 literally took out of his country Nicolas Maduro of 157 00:08:46,480 --> 00:08:49,520 Venezuela. And I think in a sense, because 158 00:08:49,520 --> 00:08:54,960 that operation went so well and there were so few casualties on 159 00:08:55,120 --> 00:08:57,360 actually on either side, relatively speaking. 160 00:08:57,880 --> 00:09:00,440 And, and because it was a clean operation for the Americans and 161 00:09:00,440 --> 00:09:02,880 because they didn't bother with regime change, they didn't 162 00:09:02,880 --> 00:09:05,600 bother with sort of helping the Democrats who tried to turn 163 00:09:05,600 --> 00:09:08,040 Venezuela around. And it was about oil. 164 00:09:08,040 --> 00:09:10,000 But we don't actually know whether there's been any follow 165 00:09:10,000 --> 00:09:12,200 up. So all we have really is, you 166 00:09:12,200 --> 00:09:14,920 know, the the scalp, if you like, of, of Maduro, who's 167 00:09:14,920 --> 00:09:17,000 sitting in a jail cell somewhere in Brooklyn. 168 00:09:17,560 --> 00:09:19,480 And the Israelis must have thought, well, if he's got a 169 00:09:19,480 --> 00:09:24,200 taste for this, maybe he'll now go for the big one in Iran. 170 00:09:24,880 --> 00:09:27,720 And I think they were absolutely panicked that he might try and 171 00:09:27,720 --> 00:09:31,400 resurrect some kind of nuclear deal, you know, as the, you 172 00:09:31,400 --> 00:09:34,280 know, the Obama administration done the kind of deal that he 173 00:09:34,280 --> 00:09:36,240 opted out of. And so they rushed over to 174 00:09:36,240 --> 00:09:38,200 Washington and said, we've got to do this. 175 00:09:38,200 --> 00:09:40,360 This is a great opportunity. You get this build up of 176 00:09:40,360 --> 00:09:43,440 American forces. The Israelis want to go for it. 177 00:09:43,440 --> 00:09:48,360 And Trump now feels empowered by the success of Venezuela to try 178 00:09:48,360 --> 00:09:51,560 the same thing again. Except as we're seeing, you 179 00:09:51,560 --> 00:09:53,120 know, the Iranians have prepared. 180 00:09:53,120 --> 00:09:54,800 I mean, for them, this is existential. 181 00:09:55,080 --> 00:09:58,240 You know, I, I covered the Iraq, the, sorry, the, the Russia 182 00:09:58,240 --> 00:10:01,840 Ukraine war from the beginning. And the one thing we always said 183 00:10:02,400 --> 00:10:04,000 for Russia, it was a war of choice. 184 00:10:04,000 --> 00:10:06,040 And the Russians weren't entirely certain why they 185 00:10:06,040 --> 00:10:09,600 invaded this country. I mean, maybe fascism, maybe it 186 00:10:09,600 --> 00:10:11,640 was, you know, nationalism, maybe NATO threatening. 187 00:10:11,640 --> 00:10:15,280 It was a bit wishy washy, rather like now with the Americans, the 188 00:10:15,280 --> 00:10:17,960 Ukrainians know exactly what they're fighting for, which is 189 00:10:17,960 --> 00:10:20,400 their survival. And whether you like the Iranian 190 00:10:20,400 --> 00:10:23,880 regime or not, and, you know, not many people do they're, they 191 00:10:23,880 --> 00:10:25,640 behave horribly towards their own people. 192 00:10:25,840 --> 00:10:29,360 But for the Iranian regime and the millions of people who 193 00:10:29,360 --> 00:10:32,400 depend on it, who make money from it, whose careers have been 194 00:10:32,400 --> 00:10:35,200 made by it, who believe also, by the way, that the Ayatollah 195 00:10:35,200 --> 00:10:38,120 who's just been slain is, you know, virtually a, you know, 196 00:10:38,360 --> 00:10:42,440 another prophet sent by God, you know, to to lead the Shiite 197 00:10:42,440 --> 00:10:46,000 church. For them, this is existential. 198 00:10:46,120 --> 00:10:49,560 And they've had time to prepare. And what we're seeing now is 199 00:10:49,560 --> 00:10:53,040 that they're rather cleverly picking off, you know, America's 200 00:10:53,040 --> 00:10:55,840 allies in the region, making people who are living in five 201 00:10:55,840 --> 00:10:58,960 star shopping malls and thinking about low tax rates and, you 202 00:10:58,960 --> 00:11:01,160 know, drinking margaritas in a Muslim country. 203 00:11:01,160 --> 00:11:02,480 I'm talking about the expats here. 204 00:11:02,800 --> 00:11:05,120 They're making them think this isn't so good, is it? 205 00:11:05,240 --> 00:11:07,480 And by the way, they've got a chokehold on the Straits of 206 00:11:07,480 --> 00:11:11,760 Hormuz through which 1/4, almost 1/4 of the world's oil and gas 207 00:11:12,000 --> 00:11:13,960 have to flow. So I think think at the moment 208 00:11:14,160 --> 00:11:17,320 to say that Iran, you know, this is done and dusted against the 209 00:11:17,320 --> 00:11:19,720 Iranians, I wouldn't be so sure. It was interesting. 210 00:11:19,720 --> 00:11:23,120 I was speaking to a military, fairly senior military source 211 00:11:23,120 --> 00:11:26,400 this week about the Iranian response because it's easy to 212 00:11:26,400 --> 00:11:28,200 look at it and think it feels indiscriminate. 213 00:11:28,200 --> 00:11:31,240 They're sort of just firing out to try and react to all of this. 214 00:11:31,240 --> 00:11:34,800 And they basically said to me that how they have responded 215 00:11:34,800 --> 00:11:38,160 shows that they have planned it very, very well because actually 216 00:11:38,160 --> 00:11:41,760 it's incredibly targeted, so much so that they're taking out, 217 00:11:41,760 --> 00:11:45,560 you know, the radars that are preventing the US military bases 218 00:11:45,560 --> 00:11:48,480 for operating in the way that they would want to operate. 219 00:11:48,480 --> 00:11:50,640 And of course, they will run out of money. 220 00:11:50,640 --> 00:11:53,320 And their, you know, military arsenal is being depleted at a 221 00:11:53,320 --> 00:11:56,800 pretty fast rate from the strikes from Israel and the US. 222 00:11:56,800 --> 00:12:00,120 But it costs a lot more to defend against those missiles 223 00:12:00,240 --> 00:12:03,320 than it costs to fire them out. I mean, it was interesting you 224 00:12:03,440 --> 00:12:08,000 talking about Iraq. I was in London when they were 225 00:12:08,000 --> 00:12:09,440 making the decision to go to war. 226 00:12:09,440 --> 00:12:11,720 And it was actually my first job working for the Observer 227 00:12:11,720 --> 00:12:13,600 newspaper. And the Observer newspaper at 228 00:12:13,600 --> 00:12:15,920 the time backed the Iraq war. And one of the first things I 229 00:12:15,920 --> 00:12:19,000 did was go through all the letters of readers saying we're 230 00:12:19,000 --> 00:12:21,600 tearing up our subscriptions, we're never going to read the 231 00:12:21,600 --> 00:12:23,440 Observer again. They were so angry about it. 232 00:12:23,640 --> 00:12:27,040 But but the contrast to now, you know, many people thought it 233 00:12:27,040 --> 00:12:29,640 wasn't a legal war, but the contrast to now was there was 234 00:12:29,640 --> 00:12:32,480 massive hand wringing about it. There was massive discussion 235 00:12:32,480 --> 00:12:34,720 about it. The moral argument wasn't 236 00:12:34,720 --> 00:12:36,360 enough. People wanted to know that there 237 00:12:36,360 --> 00:12:38,040 was a legal argument there as well. 238 00:12:38,280 --> 00:12:41,640 And this time there's a been none of that and B, Actually I'm 239 00:12:41,640 --> 00:12:42,960 interested in your thoughts of this. 240 00:12:42,960 --> 00:12:46,960 Politically in the UK, the conversation is so completely 241 00:12:46,960 --> 00:12:49,040 different. Keir Starmer is having the 242 00:12:49,040 --> 00:12:50,760 Tories say to him, how could you not? 243 00:12:50,920 --> 00:12:53,360 How could you not just support this from the start? 244 00:12:54,320 --> 00:12:56,280 I mean, there's a lot of nuance there. 245 00:12:56,280 --> 00:12:59,360 The, you know, ever since he came back to office, Donald 246 00:12:59,360 --> 00:13:04,120 Trump has forced every democratically elected leader in 247 00:13:04,120 --> 00:13:07,520 a supposedly friendly country to make choices, some very 248 00:13:07,520 --> 00:13:11,720 difficult choices between your own voters and your principles 249 00:13:11,800 --> 00:13:16,040 and what you think Donald Trump wants or what he actually says 250 00:13:16,120 --> 00:13:18,960 he wants. And this is really tricky for 251 00:13:19,080 --> 00:13:20,920 all concerned. So if you look at the range of 252 00:13:20,920 --> 00:13:23,880 opinions and reactions this week to this war, there's some 253 00:13:23,880 --> 00:13:26,040 surprises there. Let's start off with Mark 254 00:13:26,040 --> 00:13:29,720 Carney, the hero of Davos, the champion of the middle powers 255 00:13:29,720 --> 00:13:33,080 getting together and sticking up to Uncle Sam saying, you know, 256 00:13:33,080 --> 00:13:34,800 we believe in our democratic principles. 257 00:13:35,440 --> 00:13:38,640 I mean, he may believe on about those principles when it comes 258 00:13:38,640 --> 00:13:42,360 to international trade and having America next door saying 259 00:13:42,360 --> 00:13:44,200 they want Canada as a 51st state. 260 00:13:44,680 --> 00:13:48,240 But in terms of international law, when applied to warfare in 261 00:13:48,240 --> 00:13:51,520 Iran, doesn't give a damn, more or less said the, you know, told 262 00:13:51,520 --> 00:13:54,200 the Trump administration, these are evil ayatollahs. 263 00:13:54,320 --> 00:13:58,120 Do what you have to do. Then you've got Chancellor Mertz 264 00:13:58,200 --> 00:14:01,000 of Germany who starts off with that, you know, quite a nuanced 265 00:14:01,000 --> 00:14:03,440 statement, a bit like Keir Starmer's about, you know, not 266 00:14:03,440 --> 00:14:05,840 quite saying this is an illegal war, but we don't like the idea 267 00:14:05,840 --> 00:14:07,480 of it. But, you know, the ayatollahs 268 00:14:07,480 --> 00:14:09,880 are awful and they deserve to, you know, more or less, I'm 269 00:14:09,880 --> 00:14:12,240 paraphrasing, you know, end up in a shallow grave. 270 00:14:12,840 --> 00:14:15,480 And then he goes to Washington and he changes his position, is 271 00:14:15,480 --> 00:14:18,520 much more supportive. And then Trump rewards him. 272 00:14:18,920 --> 00:14:22,400 King Donald rewards the German Chancellor with a compliment 273 00:14:22,400 --> 00:14:25,560 saying, you've been very much on my side getting it in the neck 274 00:14:25,560 --> 00:14:28,040 of the Spaniards who are terrible, terrible people. 275 00:14:28,040 --> 00:14:31,160 And he the, you know, the, the way that he orders Scott Besson, 276 00:14:31,160 --> 00:14:33,960 the Treasury Secretary, to cut off all trade with Spain. 277 00:14:33,960 --> 00:14:36,440 But you know, the Spanish Prime Minister, to his credit, has 278 00:14:36,440 --> 00:14:40,280 stuck to his guns and his principles and said, no, even if 279 00:14:40,280 --> 00:14:43,280 you you can do two things at the same time, you can pour the 280 00:14:43,320 --> 00:14:46,880 Iranian regime and you can stick to international law. 281 00:14:47,360 --> 00:14:49,000 And then you get to Keir Starmer's position. 282 00:14:49,280 --> 00:14:52,280 He is caught in, you know, in a very difficult place between the 283 00:14:52,280 --> 00:14:54,920 so-called special relationship, which ain't that special these 284 00:14:54,920 --> 00:14:57,520 days and arguably hasn't been for a very long time. 285 00:14:57,920 --> 00:15:00,280 And then his own backbenchers who've been breathing down his 286 00:15:00,280 --> 00:15:03,840 neck ad nauseam since he came to power about all sorts of other 287 00:15:03,840 --> 00:15:07,040 domestic issues. And he knows that if he gives in 288 00:15:07,040 --> 00:15:09,760 to Trump, they're going to absolutely destroy him. 289 00:15:10,040 --> 00:15:13,600 So that, you know, some some, you know, Labour MPs on the left 290 00:15:13,600 --> 00:15:15,760 side. I spoke to one of them the other 291 00:15:15,760 --> 00:15:18,840 day. He said he was cheering Keir 292 00:15:18,840 --> 00:15:20,320 Starmer on. You know, this is a guy who 293 00:15:20,320 --> 00:15:22,640 doesn't like Keir Starmer because Keir Starmer had his 294 00:15:22,640 --> 00:15:25,360 so-called Love Actually moment. You know that famous scene from 295 00:15:25,360 --> 00:15:28,080 the film where Hugh Grant, as a British Prime Minister, stands 296 00:15:28,080 --> 00:15:31,160 up to the American president and and tells him? 297 00:15:31,200 --> 00:15:33,160 I'd call it love. Love Actually ish. 298 00:15:33,600 --> 00:15:35,080 Love Actually, Ish. It was lovely, actually. 299 00:15:35,080 --> 00:15:35,680 Ish. Yeah. 300 00:15:35,840 --> 00:15:37,880 But in return he got hate, actually, didn't he? 301 00:15:37,880 --> 00:15:39,840 From Donald Trump? Or a bit of hate, actually. 302 00:15:40,200 --> 00:15:42,720 I mean, that was amazing watching that yesterday it. 303 00:15:42,720 --> 00:15:44,840 Was amazing. It was, it was amazing what 304 00:15:44,840 --> 00:15:46,640 Starmer said. You know, you cannot do regime 305 00:15:46,640 --> 00:15:48,320 change from the air, which is a fairpoint. 306 00:15:48,320 --> 00:15:51,240 And by the way, you know that Dan Kane, the, you know, the 307 00:15:51,240 --> 00:15:53,560 chief of the joint, the Joint Chiefs of Staff in America, the 308 00:15:53,560 --> 00:15:55,760 senior general in America would probably agree with him. 309 00:15:56,520 --> 00:15:59,000 But at the same time, Trump's reaction to this was really 310 00:15:59,000 --> 00:16:00,560 quite petulant. And by the way, can we just say 311 00:16:00,560 --> 00:16:03,520 very quickly this obsession with Winston Churchill that Americans 312 00:16:03,520 --> 00:16:05,960 have, it's very unhealthy. It really is. 313 00:16:06,240 --> 00:16:07,360 Yeah, yeah. I thought it was kind of 314 00:16:07,360 --> 00:16:10,520 extraordinary sitting there watching to Donald Trump talk. 315 00:16:10,520 --> 00:16:15,280 He's obviously picking up the phone to journalists who have 316 00:16:15,280 --> 00:16:18,000 his number and just giving them different messages. 317 00:16:18,000 --> 00:16:20,000 And then he was asked, obviously, in the White House 318 00:16:20,680 --> 00:16:23,440 how we felt about the UK. Apparently he's been very angry 319 00:16:23,440 --> 00:16:28,040 ever since that phone call where Keir Starmer spoke to him about 320 00:16:28,040 --> 00:16:30,760 not using the bases. And then he obviously, as you 321 00:16:30,760 --> 00:16:33,400 just mentioned, made this point. It's not exactly Winston 322 00:16:33,400 --> 00:16:36,120 Churchill I'm dealing with that. It's interesting because I've 323 00:16:36,160 --> 00:16:38,600 spent a bit of time this week with British diplomats who were 324 00:16:38,600 --> 00:16:40,200 obviously tearing their hair out. 325 00:16:40,480 --> 00:16:42,560 I think the feeling is we need to just stay quiet. 326 00:16:42,560 --> 00:16:44,320 We need to try and ride this through. 327 00:16:44,480 --> 00:16:47,080 Keir Starmer, obviously under political pressure at home, has 328 00:16:47,080 --> 00:16:51,320 to stick to the line, which is, you know, around the legality 329 00:16:51,320 --> 00:16:52,360 point. But also, it's interesting. 330 00:16:52,360 --> 00:16:54,720 Someone was saying to me tonight, it was one day that we 331 00:16:54,720 --> 00:16:57,000 didn't allow the bases to be used one day. 332 00:16:57,480 --> 00:17:00,320 And, and this is what you get in return for that. 333 00:17:00,320 --> 00:17:02,720 But they also said when when they're having conversations 334 00:17:02,720 --> 00:17:05,079 with their counterparts in the State Department, in the 335 00:17:05,079 --> 00:17:08,599 Pentagon and so on, that they do get a completely different 336 00:17:08,599 --> 00:17:10,680 message than you hear from Donald Trump. 337 00:17:10,680 --> 00:17:13,160 I mean, take Chagos Islands, which is one of the things that 338 00:17:13,160 --> 00:17:15,960 Donald Trump keeps criticising. He keeps going on about the. 339 00:17:16,000 --> 00:17:17,319 Stupid. Island away. 340 00:17:17,400 --> 00:17:21,079 Yeah, the stupid island. But you know, what diplomats say 341 00:17:21,079 --> 00:17:24,240 to me is we heard nothing ever from anywhere else in the 342 00:17:24,240 --> 00:17:27,040 administration that they were annoyed about the deal at all. 343 00:17:27,040 --> 00:17:30,520 And in many ways, they felt like the deal was there to support 344 00:17:31,040 --> 00:17:34,880 America with that base. But it does show it doesn't take 345 00:17:34,880 --> 00:17:38,120 much, does it, for Donald Trump to really hit out. 346 00:17:38,360 --> 00:17:41,200 And I do find it amazing, the journalists who were telling me 347 00:17:41,520 --> 00:17:45,200 about how they just literally ring the president up and once 348 00:17:45,200 --> 00:17:47,320 in a while he just answers the phone and, you know. 349 00:17:47,480 --> 00:17:49,400 I mean, in this case, you've been talking to people not just 350 00:17:49,400 --> 00:17:51,160 in Washington but elsewhere in the States. 351 00:17:51,680 --> 00:17:53,720 What? Where is American public opinion 352 00:17:53,720 --> 00:17:55,600 in this? Where's the MAGA crowd on this? 353 00:17:56,120 --> 00:18:00,000 Well, it's really fascinating because obviously Donald Trump 354 00:18:00,000 --> 00:18:03,360 is someone who has promised no forever wars and you don't have 355 00:18:03,360 --> 00:18:06,160 to go very far back to find members of his administration 356 00:18:06,160 --> 00:18:09,000 making that point. Pete Hagseth in December 357 00:18:09,000 --> 00:18:12,040 launching the defence strategy, basically saying we're not going 358 00:18:12,040 --> 00:18:15,840 to go for regime change, we're going to try and deter war. 359 00:18:15,840 --> 00:18:20,840 JD Vance, 10 days before the last election, basically saying 360 00:18:20,840 --> 00:18:23,720 it would be madness to go to war with Iran because it would take 361 00:18:23,720 --> 00:18:26,040 up too much resource, it would cost too much. 362 00:18:26,720 --> 00:18:29,800 Obviously now, you know, marching to a different tune. 363 00:18:29,800 --> 00:18:33,040 But clearly they're not the Iran Hawks who have been pushing 364 00:18:33,040 --> 00:18:35,880 this. And in terms of Donald Trump's 365 00:18:35,960 --> 00:18:38,680 mega base, well, there's two layers to this. 366 00:18:38,680 --> 00:18:40,400 There's the voters, and I'll just come to that. 367 00:18:40,400 --> 00:18:45,640 But then there's the extremely influential commentators, people 368 00:18:45,640 --> 00:18:47,840 like Tucker Carlson, people like Megyn Kelly. 369 00:18:48,080 --> 00:18:50,320 Megyn Kelly is pretty angry about this. 370 00:18:50,320 --> 00:18:52,920 She can't see how there was an imminent threat. 371 00:18:53,080 --> 00:18:56,040 She can't see how this protects American lives. 372 00:18:56,200 --> 00:18:58,920 There is a split in MAGA over the issue of Israel. 373 00:18:59,280 --> 00:19:02,320 It's very, very clear, although Donald Trump's been trying to 374 00:19:02,320 --> 00:19:05,720 deny it this week, that Netanyahu's influence has been 375 00:19:05,720 --> 00:19:09,800 massive and has been a really big driver of this, especially 376 00:19:09,800 --> 00:19:12,520 when you think that those other people around Donald Trump are 377 00:19:12,520 --> 00:19:15,120 not necessarily Middle East Hawks. 378 00:19:15,640 --> 00:19:19,440 They don't want to see America entering a war on behalf of 379 00:19:19,680 --> 00:19:21,360 Israel. Obviously, Donald Trump's trying 380 00:19:21,360 --> 00:19:23,640 to deny that. So they're furious and millions 381 00:19:23,640 --> 00:19:27,160 and millions and millions of people listen to her podcast, 382 00:19:27,160 --> 00:19:29,840 listen to Tucker Carlson and we'll be thinking about it. 383 00:19:29,840 --> 00:19:34,880 So look, I was in a kind of quite pro Trump area in 384 00:19:35,520 --> 00:19:38,600 Baltimore last week before this happened. 385 00:19:38,600 --> 00:19:42,600 And I was talking to what you might call the MAGA base, like 386 00:19:42,600 --> 00:19:45,960 people who absolutely love Donald Trump and they continue 387 00:19:45,960 --> 00:19:47,920 to love him. And when I was talking to them, 388 00:19:47,920 --> 00:19:50,280 one of them was a guy called Tim Fazenbaker, who was actually 389 00:19:50,280 --> 00:19:54,600 running for Baltimore County Council as what he called an 390 00:19:54,600 --> 00:19:57,680 America first Republican. And I put to him like if they 391 00:19:57,680 --> 00:20:00,080 strike Iran, because it was looking very likely at the time, 392 00:20:00,400 --> 00:20:02,560 are you OK with that? And, and basically I got the 393 00:20:02,560 --> 00:20:06,640 same message from different people, which was we are OK with 394 00:20:06,640 --> 00:20:09,440 it. It just about if it's a very 395 00:20:09,440 --> 00:20:13,880 limited operation and one that is purely about taking out the 396 00:20:13,880 --> 00:20:18,160 nukes to keep us safe. If it went further than that, if 397 00:20:18,160 --> 00:20:21,560 it went into boots on the ground, then they would be very 398 00:20:21,560 --> 00:20:24,360 unhappy. And actually I rang one of the 399 00:20:24,360 --> 00:20:27,560 people I spoke to back after the strikes to ask and they were 400 00:20:27,560 --> 00:20:30,480 like very relieved that the first strike had been militarily 401 00:20:30,480 --> 00:20:34,200 so successful, the first strikes in taking out the Ayatollah 402 00:20:34,200 --> 00:20:37,240 himself, because they felt that made the argument more strongly. 403 00:20:37,400 --> 00:20:41,280 But there is massive nervousness and the polls tend to show 404 00:20:41,480 --> 00:20:45,000 people don't think they've made the argument for this invasion. 405 00:20:45,360 --> 00:20:48,680 Just just a final thought on it though, on Donald Trump trying 406 00:20:48,680 --> 00:20:51,760 to search for who is the Iran hawk in the White House. 407 00:20:52,160 --> 00:20:54,480 Part of me wonders if it is Donald Trump. 408 00:20:54,720 --> 00:20:59,240 I was watching back things he said in 1980 yesterday, things 409 00:20:59,240 --> 00:21:01,680 that he had said in 1987 and onwards. 410 00:21:01,680 --> 00:21:04,440 And actually there is a consistency from Donald Trump 411 00:21:04,640 --> 00:21:06,840 when it comes to Iran. He thought there should have 412 00:21:06,840 --> 00:21:10,440 been military action in 1980. It's very clear he thinks that 413 00:21:10,440 --> 00:21:13,240 America should be stronger when it comes to Iran. 414 00:21:13,240 --> 00:21:16,560 And although he says no forever wars, everything he's done one 415 00:21:16,560 --> 00:21:20,200 shows he is interventionist. He just wants to highlight 416 00:21:20,200 --> 00:21:23,120 America's military might. What he might have done here is 417 00:21:23,120 --> 00:21:25,160 unleash something he can't control. 418 00:21:25,360 --> 00:21:27,120 But there, there's a couple of nuances there. 419 00:21:27,120 --> 00:21:32,720 So he did kill, you know, the Revolutionary Guard Commander 420 00:21:32,720 --> 00:21:35,960 Suleimani in 2020. Yeah, Yeah, he did that. 421 00:21:36,040 --> 00:21:39,960 And he did, you know, come out of the Iran nuclear enrichment 422 00:21:39,960 --> 00:21:43,040 deal that Obama had fashioned. He did that as well. 423 00:21:43,240 --> 00:21:47,640 But remember, he also fired John Baltimore or less because he 424 00:21:47,640 --> 00:21:51,040 wanted to go to war with Iran. So Trump has also been on a bit 425 00:21:51,040 --> 00:21:52,840 of a journey. There was some, you know, 426 00:21:52,840 --> 00:21:54,240 there's a loathing there of Iran. 427 00:21:54,640 --> 00:21:57,680 And remember, Iran has been a thorn in America's side since 428 00:21:57,680 --> 00:22:01,440 the revolution in 1979. You won't find many, you know, 429 00:22:01,520 --> 00:22:03,480 Iranian regime friends in the US. 430 00:22:03,800 --> 00:22:06,680 But the fact that he, he himself, Trump has changed his 431 00:22:06,680 --> 00:22:08,480 mind on this. And then if you look at the way 432 00:22:08,480 --> 00:22:12,240 that Hex had spoke today, if you look at the the fact that, you 433 00:22:12,240 --> 00:22:14,240 know, so many of America's friends have been drawn into 434 00:22:14,240 --> 00:22:17,160 this war, you kind of wonder that even if they don't believe 435 00:22:17,160 --> 00:22:19,920 in the crate&barrel rule, you break it, you keep it. 436 00:22:20,000 --> 00:22:22,600 No, you break it and then you leg it out of the shop. 437 00:22:22,600 --> 00:22:26,000 That's the new rule. Who's to say they're not going 438 00:22:26,000 --> 00:22:28,560 to get sucked into this? You know, you have more American 439 00:22:28,560 --> 00:22:31,640 casualties suddenly has to send some boots on the ground to make 440 00:22:31,640 --> 00:22:34,440 you know, or you know, or you let's say you have patrols, 441 00:22:34,560 --> 00:22:37,760 American naval patrols in the in the in the Straits of Hormuz, 442 00:22:38,160 --> 00:22:41,160 which is what they've suggested taking, you know, oil tankers to 443 00:22:41,160 --> 00:22:43,320 safety. I know that Trump has said he 444 00:22:43,320 --> 00:22:45,640 doesn't want boots on the ground and he doesn't obviously care 445 00:22:45,640 --> 00:22:48,760 about nation building. And PTX of today was incredibly 446 00:22:48,920 --> 00:22:52,040 dismissive of the very notion of nation building, which is such a 447 00:22:52,040 --> 00:22:55,080 kind of Democrat thing to do. And you know, which it wasn't 448 00:22:55,080 --> 00:22:57,920 actually was a Republican venture and it failed miserably 449 00:22:58,160 --> 00:23:01,400 in Iraq and in Afghanistan. But the point is, if you have 450 00:23:01,400 --> 00:23:05,920 American warships patrolling the Straits of Hormuz and escorting 451 00:23:05,920 --> 00:23:10,560 tankers to safety and they get hit by the Iranians, who's to 452 00:23:10,560 --> 00:23:15,720 say that that doesn't draw the idea of having naval warfare? 453 00:23:15,720 --> 00:23:19,640 We saw the beginning of this, you know, close quarters much 454 00:23:19,640 --> 00:23:22,440 makes that much more realistic. And then the next step could be 455 00:23:22,440 --> 00:23:24,640 boots on the ground. You know the minute you go down 456 00:23:24,640 --> 00:23:27,480 this slippery slope, even if you think it's a war without 457 00:23:27,720 --> 00:23:31,560 American troops being deployed, just be careful because you 458 00:23:31,560 --> 00:23:34,560 never know how these things pan. I've just finished the 459 00:23:34,560 --> 00:23:37,800 conversation with Jane Gavito, who is senior advisor at the 460 00:23:37,800 --> 00:23:40,920 Cohen Group but was in the State Department, actually was 461 00:23:41,360 --> 00:23:44,040 Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs, which 462 00:23:44,040 --> 00:23:47,680 included Iran in Joe Biden's time. 463 00:23:47,720 --> 00:23:50,480 A long time senior American diplomat. 464 00:23:50,480 --> 00:23:53,360 She's been in the room for the type of conversations we're 465 00:23:53,360 --> 00:23:55,440 talking about. And before this began, she 466 00:23:55,440 --> 00:23:57,520 warned about what it might unleash. 467 00:23:57,520 --> 00:23:59,200 And that was where I began our chat. 468 00:24:00,520 --> 00:24:04,520 Speaking in January, you suggested that targeting the 469 00:24:04,520 --> 00:24:08,960 Iranian leadership with strikes could basically open a Pandora's 470 00:24:08,960 --> 00:24:12,200 box, that it could unleash something that America couldn't 471 00:24:12,200 --> 00:24:14,480 control. Is that what you think is 472 00:24:14,480 --> 00:24:16,000 happening? I think so. 473 00:24:16,480 --> 00:24:19,120 Obviously this will continue to play out over the course of 474 00:24:19,120 --> 00:24:22,760 months, if not years. But by having eliminated the 475 00:24:22,760 --> 00:24:27,840 Iranian leadership without a clear plan, then you you can't 476 00:24:27,840 --> 00:24:30,400 know what comes next, right. So we're seeing initial 477 00:24:30,400 --> 00:24:33,280 indications that supreme leader's the late supreme 478 00:24:33,280 --> 00:24:36,120 leader's older son may be in line. 479 00:24:36,720 --> 00:24:39,640 He is affiliated with the IRGC. And I think, you know, as we may 480 00:24:39,640 --> 00:24:43,400 have talked about previously, every war game that's been 481 00:24:43,400 --> 00:24:46,320 played out by the United States in recent years has in fact 482 00:24:46,320 --> 00:24:51,320 pointed to the IRGC is taking over if, if regime change is 483 00:24:51,320 --> 00:24:53,480 attempted. So harder line than than what we 484 00:24:53,480 --> 00:24:56,880 started with. Harder line because that becomes 485 00:24:56,880 --> 00:25:00,280 militarily focused over religiously focused. 486 00:25:00,280 --> 00:25:03,760 Correct. More secular, but certainly 487 00:25:03,880 --> 00:25:06,360 stronger as far as as security goes. 488 00:25:06,360 --> 00:25:08,920 And so if you're talking about, you know, and I know there's 489 00:25:08,920 --> 00:25:11,960 many justifications out there at the moment for why we embarked 490 00:25:11,960 --> 00:25:14,680 on this endeavour, but if one of those is protection of the 491 00:25:14,680 --> 00:25:18,760 Iranian people, I, I don't think that an IRGC influenced 492 00:25:18,840 --> 00:25:22,360 government is better for them in any way. 493 00:25:22,520 --> 00:25:25,480 And to be clear, when you were in the State Department, that 494 00:25:25,480 --> 00:25:28,120 was the projection. That was the working assumption 495 00:25:28,120 --> 00:25:31,360 was if you attempted regime change from the outside, the 496 00:25:31,400 --> 00:25:35,800 IRGC would most likely prevail. And you just said months, maybe 497 00:25:35,800 --> 00:25:38,400 years. Was that what could have 498 00:25:38,400 --> 00:25:40,160 happened? Does that look likely to happen? 499 00:25:41,080 --> 00:25:43,160 I think that we don't yet have an understanding that. 500 00:25:43,160 --> 00:25:45,600 I keep going back to the question of what is the 501 00:25:45,600 --> 00:25:48,600 objective here. And over the last 96 hours, 502 00:25:48,600 --> 00:25:52,360 we've heard a few of them. Yesterday it seemed that the 503 00:25:52,360 --> 00:25:55,520 administration was coalescing around the idea of the objective 504 00:25:55,520 --> 00:25:59,800 being degradation of of nuclear, if not missile programs. 505 00:26:01,120 --> 00:26:03,960 But others, you know, including reports yesterday that the 506 00:26:03,960 --> 00:26:07,960 United States is thinking about arming the Kurdish elements in 507 00:26:07,960 --> 00:26:11,520 Iraq and inside Iran. That suggests that maybe regime 508 00:26:11,520 --> 00:26:14,640 change is still on the table until we really know what the 509 00:26:14,640 --> 00:26:18,120 objective is and therefore able to extrapolate from that what 510 00:26:18,640 --> 00:26:22,040 the in state may look like. I think it's really hard to talk 511 00:26:22,040 --> 00:26:27,120 about what that does look like. But if you are talking about 512 00:26:27,120 --> 00:26:31,640 arming insurgent groups inside of the country, then you are 513 00:26:31,640 --> 00:26:34,640 setting in motion a series of events that I think it becomes 514 00:26:34,640 --> 00:26:38,600 very, very hard to influence. And even if you don't, even if 515 00:26:38,600 --> 00:26:43,040 you just walk away at, at further degradation of the of 516 00:26:43,040 --> 00:26:46,880 the nuclear program and the missile program, even there, you 517 00:26:46,880 --> 00:26:50,440 know that a new supreme leader has to be elected and it becomes 518 00:26:50,440 --> 00:26:53,160 very difficult to predict what trajectory that might take. 519 00:26:53,240 --> 00:26:56,880 And when you say it looks like there's no plan, what are the 520 00:26:56,880 --> 00:27:00,320 signs that there's no plan? Well, I mean, first and foremost 521 00:27:00,320 --> 00:27:03,400 that the administration is not yet settled on a single 522 00:27:03,400 --> 00:27:05,880 justification for this operation. 523 00:27:06,480 --> 00:27:09,240 They seem to be floating different options, maybe seeing 524 00:27:09,240 --> 00:27:13,440 what resonates with the public. And so if you don't know what 525 00:27:13,440 --> 00:27:15,760 the objective is, then again, it's very difficult to put 526 00:27:15,760 --> 00:27:17,960 forward a plan to achieve that objective. 527 00:27:18,280 --> 00:27:20,200 So are they driving towards regime change? 528 00:27:20,800 --> 00:27:22,880 There were moments yesterday where that seemed to be the 529 00:27:22,880 --> 00:27:25,360 case. Are they just driving towards a 530 00:27:25,520 --> 00:27:28,280 very cut and dry operation against nuclear facilities? 531 00:27:28,280 --> 00:27:30,240 That's not exactly what we've seen to date. 532 00:27:30,760 --> 00:27:32,160 So it's really hard to answer that question. 533 00:27:32,160 --> 00:27:34,120 There's a lot of unknowns still hanging out there. 534 00:27:34,240 --> 00:27:36,280 I mean, they're trying to slightly backtrack from it, but 535 00:27:36,280 --> 00:27:38,920 it seemed really clear to me that Secretary of State Marco 536 00:27:38,920 --> 00:27:44,240 Rubio briefed the Gang of Eight most senior figures in Congress. 537 00:27:44,360 --> 00:27:46,880 They came out and spoke to us, and I was there listening to 538 00:27:46,880 --> 00:27:50,000 what they had been briefed on. They briefed them that there was 539 00:27:50,000 --> 00:27:53,240 an imminent threat based on the idea that Israel was going to 540 00:27:53,240 --> 00:27:55,880 strike anyway and that that would lead to a response that 541 00:27:55,880 --> 00:27:59,280 would, they argued, kill many Americans. 542 00:27:59,880 --> 00:28:01,960 To someone who's been there, been in the room. 543 00:28:01,960 --> 00:28:03,840 What did you make of that justification? 544 00:28:04,000 --> 00:28:06,240 I mean, that justification actually rings true to me. 545 00:28:06,520 --> 00:28:10,120 What what is different in this is that previous administrations 546 00:28:10,160 --> 00:28:13,200 have worked very hard to restrain Prime Minister 547 00:28:13,200 --> 00:28:16,080 Netanyahu, who, let's be clear, has been moving towards this 548 00:28:16,080 --> 00:28:19,280 objective for his own reasons for 20 years now. 549 00:28:19,960 --> 00:28:24,920 So that the idea that Netanyahu would want to embark on a regime 550 00:28:24,920 --> 00:28:26,920 change operation should surprise nobody. 551 00:28:27,240 --> 00:28:31,280 What again, what's different here is the idea that the US 552 00:28:31,280 --> 00:28:34,760 administration would go along with that plan and even strike 553 00:28:34,760 --> 00:28:38,360 preemptively in order not to absorb the the blowback. 554 00:28:38,640 --> 00:28:40,800 But I, I, I think that was absolutely correct. 555 00:28:41,120 --> 00:28:45,080 I think that if if Israel had gone it alone, and I suspect 556 00:28:45,080 --> 00:28:48,880 that when Netanyahu was in the Oval Office with President Trump 557 00:28:48,880 --> 00:28:52,600 in mid February that that's what he what he previewed, then 558 00:28:52,600 --> 00:28:55,400 absolutely Iran would have struck out at us. 559 00:28:56,280 --> 00:29:00,280 Where you could, of course, corrected is by letting Prime 560 00:29:00,280 --> 00:29:02,800 Minister Netanyahu know in no uncertain terms that the United 561 00:29:02,800 --> 00:29:06,200 States was not prepared to embark on that on that mission. 562 00:29:06,200 --> 00:29:08,480 And then do you think he wouldn't have gone ahead? 563 00:29:08,720 --> 00:29:12,880 I, I think if he believed that the United States was not going 564 00:29:12,880 --> 00:29:15,600 to participate, then I don't think he would have had much of 565 00:29:15,600 --> 00:29:18,240 A choice but to back off and, and that has been in fact the 566 00:29:18,240 --> 00:29:20,080 dynamic for the better part of two decades. 567 00:29:20,080 --> 00:29:21,840 And, and you've been there for this. 568 00:29:21,840 --> 00:29:25,200 I mean, presumably Benjamin Netanyahu was trying to persuade 569 00:29:25,720 --> 00:29:29,200 Joe Biden. And and President Obama, and 570 00:29:29,640 --> 00:29:31,920 we're going all the way back to Bush. 571 00:29:32,040 --> 00:29:33,960 What, what were your conversations about that? 572 00:29:36,360 --> 00:29:39,800 Exactly where you started this conversation that, you know, 573 00:29:39,800 --> 00:29:42,120 first of all, I think is really important in all of these 574 00:29:42,120 --> 00:29:45,480 discussions about where we are to make very clear that this 575 00:29:45,480 --> 00:29:48,560 Iranian regime was evil. They brutalized their own 576 00:29:48,560 --> 00:29:50,400 people. They exported terror all over 577 00:29:50,400 --> 00:29:51,840 the region. And so in none of the 578 00:29:51,840 --> 00:29:55,120 conversations is anybody trying to assert that somehow this 579 00:29:55,120 --> 00:30:00,000 regime should be protected. But the conversations with 580 00:30:00,000 --> 00:30:03,360 Netanyahu would revolve around the idea that no regime change 581 00:30:03,360 --> 00:30:05,800 operation has ever been successful from the air. 582 00:30:06,960 --> 00:30:09,880 You know, for for countries that were certainly the United States 583 00:30:09,880 --> 00:30:13,880 not prepared to put boots on the ground, what, what you thought 584 00:30:13,880 --> 00:30:16,720 you were putting in motion, what you thought you could achieve is 585 00:30:16,720 --> 00:30:19,360 not what would come out of that. And those were the 586 00:30:19,360 --> 00:30:21,760 conversations. What do you end up with them? 587 00:30:22,160 --> 00:30:26,400 Well, I mean, I think you end up either with chaos. 588 00:30:26,880 --> 00:30:30,960 If you are able to kind of foment kind of the beginnings of 589 00:30:30,960 --> 00:30:35,560 unrest within Iranian borders, then you start to have, you 590 00:30:35,560 --> 00:30:38,560 know, separatist groups, militias, skirmishes, etcetera, 591 00:30:38,560 --> 00:30:41,840 that that gives way to increase chaos certainly in border 592 00:30:41,840 --> 00:30:44,360 regions maybe spreading beyond that. 593 00:30:45,000 --> 00:30:50,080 But but with the regime still firmly in charge or you pave the 594 00:30:50,080 --> 00:30:53,880 way for again, a more hard line regime to come into place. 595 00:30:54,400 --> 00:30:56,760 I, I, I think that, you know, there's still a lot of wishful 596 00:30:56,760 --> 00:31:00,760 thinking that maybe you have a Venezuela style situation where 597 00:31:00,760 --> 00:31:04,840 the Iranian leadership that assesses that if they play nice 598 00:31:04,840 --> 00:31:08,280 with the United States and moderate their positions, then, 599 00:31:08,320 --> 00:31:10,440 you know, we, we can find a common path forward. 600 00:31:10,720 --> 00:31:13,960 That's, that's very unlikely for, for a variety of reasons. 601 00:31:14,120 --> 00:31:15,960 And one thing I'm. Interested in is you can make 602 00:31:15,960 --> 00:31:19,280 the moral argument for war and you can say it's an evil regime 603 00:31:19,280 --> 00:31:22,040 that needs to be removed. And I remember working on the 604 00:31:22,040 --> 00:31:25,200 Iraq war where there were the similar arguments. 605 00:31:25,320 --> 00:31:28,080 There was a moral argument to get rid of Saddam Hussein, but 606 00:31:28,080 --> 00:31:31,520 what we wanted was for the UK at the time and the US to make the 607 00:31:31,520 --> 00:31:35,560 legal argument. And as almost this morning, Pete 608 00:31:35,560 --> 00:31:39,520 Hegseth has come out and explicitly said that they 609 00:31:39,640 --> 00:31:43,720 targeted an Iranian warship that thought it was safe in 610 00:31:43,720 --> 00:31:47,720 international waters. So quite openly saying 611 00:31:48,040 --> 00:31:49,880 international law is not going to protect them. 612 00:31:50,240 --> 00:31:54,160 How worried are you about comments like that and about 613 00:31:54,160 --> 00:31:55,840 that move? It's a really dangerous 614 00:31:55,840 --> 00:31:58,160 precedent. And I think that, you know, a 615 00:31:58,160 --> 00:32:01,920 number of comments that have come out over the course of days 616 00:32:01,920 --> 00:32:06,200 and weeks have suggested less of a commitment to adherence to 617 00:32:06,440 --> 00:32:08,600 international law. And of course of the last year, 618 00:32:08,600 --> 00:32:11,560 we've seen a real, in fairness, dating back in some ways to the 619 00:32:11,560 --> 00:32:13,840 Biden administration. We've seen a real dismantlement 620 00:32:14,400 --> 00:32:19,120 of kind of multilateral institutions as the framework 621 00:32:19,120 --> 00:32:21,280 for which, you know, all countries operate. 622 00:32:21,520 --> 00:32:23,960 That's a really dangerous precedent and one that puts our 623 00:32:23,960 --> 00:32:27,720 own service people at risk, our own civilians at risk. 624 00:32:27,720 --> 00:32:29,400 You think it gives a green light to others? 625 00:32:29,400 --> 00:32:31,760 I do. I mean, if you can, absolutely, 626 00:32:31,760 --> 00:32:37,640 if you can blow, blow ships out of the water out of, you know, 627 00:32:37,640 --> 00:32:41,360 whatever domestic justification there may be, again, to your 628 00:32:41,360 --> 00:32:43,200 point, however strong it may be, right. 629 00:32:44,320 --> 00:32:47,200 But if you can do that in violation of international law, 630 00:32:47,200 --> 00:32:50,160 then what is stopping any other rogue actor from doing that to 631 00:32:50,240 --> 00:32:54,200 to American civilians or military or our servicemen? 632 00:32:54,600 --> 00:32:56,840 And can I just ask you about other countries in the region? 633 00:32:56,840 --> 00:32:59,520 I thought it was really interesting the reporting denied 634 00:32:59,520 --> 00:33:03,400 by Saudi Arabia but reported by journalists who have good 635 00:33:03,400 --> 00:33:07,760 sources, that the Saudis were pressing America to do this. 636 00:33:07,880 --> 00:33:11,280 Do you believe that? You know, what rings true to me 637 00:33:11,280 --> 00:33:15,120 in this is a comment that was attributed to the Saudis several 638 00:33:15,120 --> 00:33:18,440 weeks before the operation that we would look weak if we didn't 639 00:33:18,440 --> 00:33:21,760 do it. And so I suspect there was, on 640 00:33:21,760 --> 00:33:24,840 the part of our allies in the Gulf in particular, kind of a 641 00:33:24,840 --> 00:33:27,480 sense of inevitability of this. We had amassed the biggest 642 00:33:27,480 --> 00:33:32,200 Armada since the Iraq war. And so the idea that you would 643 00:33:32,200 --> 00:33:36,600 you would bring all of this into the region and then let it sit 644 00:33:36,600 --> 00:33:40,520 there unused, I think struck everybody is not likely right. 645 00:33:41,080 --> 00:33:45,520 And so I I suspect on the part of the Saudis that they 646 00:33:45,520 --> 00:33:49,080 recognized that there was an inevitability to it and sought 647 00:33:49,080 --> 00:33:51,840 to shape that conversation. So I'm sure it was a 648 00:33:51,840 --> 00:33:54,640 constructive, you know, it's never as black and white as go, 649 00:33:54,640 --> 00:33:56,960 don't go. So I suspect there was some 650 00:33:56,960 --> 00:33:59,760 nuance to it. And to be clear, there's no love 651 00:33:59,760 --> 00:34:02,320 lost between the Saudis and the Iranians or the other Gulf 652 00:34:02,320 --> 00:34:03,880 states. I think, again, going back to 653 00:34:03,880 --> 00:34:07,000 the premise, everybody understands that this is an evil 654 00:34:07,000 --> 00:34:09,960 regime that destabilizes the region. 655 00:34:10,159 --> 00:34:12,960 Is there an outcome here that is more positive? 656 00:34:13,239 --> 00:34:17,760 You know, this is a massive barrage of strikes. 657 00:34:18,120 --> 00:34:21,080 It's had enormous. What on the surface looks like 658 00:34:21,080 --> 00:34:23,480 military success. It's not just taken out the 659 00:34:23,480 --> 00:34:26,880 supreme leader. It's taken out many layers of 660 00:34:26,880 --> 00:34:33,600 the regime's leadership. It has decimated Iran's naval 661 00:34:33,600 --> 00:34:37,159 capacity. It probably has taken out much 662 00:34:37,159 --> 00:34:40,840 of its short and mid range missile capability. 663 00:34:41,560 --> 00:34:45,639 Is it possible that the regime cannot survive this and that 664 00:34:46,080 --> 00:34:49,639 perhaps with the arming of Kurds or even other protesters, that 665 00:34:49,639 --> 00:34:51,840 there is an uprising that will remove it? 666 00:34:53,000 --> 00:34:55,760 I'm pretty skeptical. I would disaggregate those two 667 00:34:55,760 --> 00:34:58,200 things and say that what you described at the beginning of 668 00:34:58,200 --> 00:35:01,800 that is in fact a net positive. The world is a safer place if 669 00:35:01,800 --> 00:35:04,520 Iran does not have a giant arsenal of missiles at its 670 00:35:04,520 --> 00:35:07,520 disposal and if it doesn't have the capability to project its 671 00:35:07,520 --> 00:35:09,080 power outside of its own borders. 672 00:35:09,080 --> 00:35:12,160 I think that's a net positive. Again, you can question how we 673 00:35:12,160 --> 00:35:15,480 got here and what the off ramp is, but those are good things 674 00:35:16,080 --> 00:35:20,600 for that to translate into regime change coming from kind 675 00:35:20,600 --> 00:35:25,320 of border regions and non unified opposition forces. 676 00:35:25,400 --> 00:35:27,640 That I think is probably a bridge too far. 677 00:35:27,640 --> 00:35:29,880 At least at this moment. There's no unifying figure, 678 00:35:29,880 --> 00:35:34,360 there's no unified opposition. Even you know, the types of arms 679 00:35:34,360 --> 00:35:37,360 that you know, maybe these these separatist groups have I I I 680 00:35:37,360 --> 00:35:41,360 don't think is any match for. The state and Donald Trump said 681 00:35:41,360 --> 00:35:44,280 yesterday the worst case scenario is they replace how 682 00:35:44,280 --> 00:35:47,520 many with another person who's just as bad. 683 00:35:47,720 --> 00:35:50,400 So they obviously think that that is a realistic possibility. 684 00:35:50,600 --> 00:35:52,040 What would that mean for the world? 685 00:35:52,400 --> 00:35:56,160 I mean, I think we're back to square one, but with degraded 686 00:35:56,160 --> 00:36:00,000 capabilities in the short term. But I think it sets off a cycle 687 00:36:00,680 --> 00:36:03,080 of what we've seen over the last year where, you know they 688 00:36:03,080 --> 00:36:08,920 rebuild capacity and some combination of US, Israel, maybe 689 00:36:08,920 --> 00:36:12,080 other allies have to go in periodically and eliminate those 690 00:36:12,080 --> 00:36:14,560 those capabilities again. But if that's. 691 00:36:14,560 --> 00:36:16,040 Positive. Is there an argument that 692 00:36:16,080 --> 00:36:17,240 they've done the right thing here? 693 00:36:17,760 --> 00:36:21,640 Again, I, I think that degrading their capabilities and we've 694 00:36:21,640 --> 00:36:23,280 we've tried that through a variety of different ways, 695 00:36:23,280 --> 00:36:23,960 right. We've tried it through 696 00:36:23,960 --> 00:36:26,080 sanctions, we've tried it through prior military action 697 00:36:26,080 --> 00:36:28,240 etcetera. So yes, I think that there is an 698 00:36:28,240 --> 00:36:31,520 argument to be made for decapitating their ability to 699 00:36:31,520 --> 00:36:33,760 spread terror. Do you think that it's not a? 700 00:36:33,840 --> 00:36:36,320 Deal was better than this. I'm sorry, do you? 701 00:36:36,320 --> 00:36:38,320 Think that Obama's deal? Was better than. 702 00:36:38,320 --> 00:36:41,120 Absolutely. I I thanks it. 703 00:36:41,120 --> 00:36:43,920 It had its limitations for sure, but it kept channels of 704 00:36:43,920 --> 00:36:47,400 communication open. By having done this on top of 705 00:36:47,400 --> 00:36:49,680 negotiations that were taking place, I think the US has 706 00:36:49,680 --> 00:36:52,440 unfortunately removed itself as a as a credible negotiating 707 00:36:52,440 --> 00:36:53,960 partner for the foreseeable future. 708 00:36:54,240 --> 00:36:56,480 Leaving kinetic action is really our only tool. 709 00:36:56,720 --> 00:37:00,000 And very final question, who do you think in the administration 710 00:37:00,320 --> 00:37:03,400 is driving this? Who are the Iran Hawks in the 711 00:37:03,400 --> 00:37:06,640 White House, in the State Department, who are pushing? 712 00:37:06,840 --> 00:37:08,800 It's such a good question. I mean, we've we've heard 713 00:37:08,800 --> 00:37:12,520 Lindsey Graham, we've heard Tom Cotton and certainly Prime 714 00:37:12,520 --> 00:37:15,000 Minister Netanyahu has a major voice in this. 715 00:37:15,720 --> 00:37:18,480 You know, I, I've hear, I've heard some nuance from others. 716 00:37:18,520 --> 00:37:21,640 And so I hope that there is a rigorous policy debate going on 717 00:37:21,640 --> 00:37:25,640 that leads us even, you know, maybe if this started not on, on 718 00:37:25,640 --> 00:37:29,240 the best of objectives or best clarity, maybe at least how it 719 00:37:29,240 --> 00:37:32,480 goes forward will be the result of of more rigorous policy 720 00:37:32,480 --> 00:37:34,680 conversations. Thank you very much. 721 00:37:34,800 --> 00:37:38,800 Thank you. That was Jen, Gavita, and I 722 00:37:38,800 --> 00:37:41,360 think that that is all we've got time for today. 723 00:37:41,360 --> 00:37:44,720 I hope that people listening, watching will press follow or 724 00:37:44,720 --> 00:37:46,760 subscribe. We always greatly appreciate 725 00:37:46,760 --> 00:37:48,520 that. And of course, yes, we really 726 00:37:48,520 --> 00:37:50,120 appreciate everyone who follows us. 727 00:37:50,120 --> 00:37:51,720 We appreciate everyone of you listening. 728 00:37:52,160 --> 00:37:55,720 And there was so much to say about this conflict, what it 729 00:37:55,720 --> 00:37:58,000 means about, you know, the breakdown of international law, 730 00:37:58,000 --> 00:38:02,080 what it means about the nature of American power in the age of 731 00:38:02,080 --> 00:38:06,520 Donald Trump, that this story, I'm afraid, will probably run 732 00:38:06,520 --> 00:38:09,160 and run. That's it from Trump world. 733 00:38:09,360 --> 00:38:12,120 Goodbye from London. Goodbye from Washington, DC.