1 00:00:00,040 --> 00:00:02,440 You know, you can take the man out of television, but you 2 00:00:02,440 --> 00:00:04,480 cannot take television out of the man. 3 00:00:04,640 --> 00:00:09,240 I mean, this is being celebrated as this gigantic peace deal, and 4 00:00:09,240 --> 00:00:11,280 Trump deserves the Nobel Peace Prize. 5 00:00:11,280 --> 00:00:15,240 The reality is, is much less dramatic than that. 6 00:00:15,240 --> 00:00:19,080 When you look at what Netanyahu is saying publicly to the world 7 00:00:19,080 --> 00:00:20,400 and what he's saying to Israelis. 8 00:00:20,400 --> 00:00:23,000 And what he's saying to Israelis is that this is not over. 9 00:00:23,280 --> 00:00:26,680 Is there just a complete lack of structure ready? 10 00:00:26,800 --> 00:00:30,720 We see some sort of disturbing signs that this may end up 11 00:00:30,720 --> 00:00:36,000 looking like a Western umbrella dictating to Palestinians what 12 00:00:36,000 --> 00:00:43,240 they can do, what they can't do. Hello and welcome to this week's 13 00:00:43,240 --> 00:00:46,000 edition of Trump World. I'm Matt Fry in London. 14 00:00:46,080 --> 00:00:49,080 I'm Anish Gastana in Washington, DC, and what a delight to have 15 00:00:49,080 --> 00:00:50,840 you back. Matt, did you have a nice 16 00:00:50,840 --> 00:00:52,640 holiday? We ended up in Rome and that was 17 00:00:52,640 --> 00:00:54,280 lovely. Yeah, you're back. 18 00:00:54,280 --> 00:00:56,520 So it's all good. So, so just, you know, I mean, 19 00:00:56,520 --> 00:01:01,240 you have covered the Middle East for again, I don't want to age 20 00:01:01,240 --> 00:01:07,400 you, but decades living in Israel back in 1989 when I was 21 00:01:07,400 --> 00:01:11,520 at school, just like historical context. 22 00:01:11,600 --> 00:01:14,040 And and, you know, I was speaking to a former negotiator 23 00:01:14,040 --> 00:01:16,600 a few weeks ago who made this argument that they felt the 24 00:01:16,600 --> 00:01:20,520 closest the two sides had ever been was 2000 and the gap was 25 00:01:20,520 --> 00:01:22,600 still at the time a Grand Canyon. 26 00:01:22,800 --> 00:01:26,160 Putting this into a historical context, how do you see it? 27 00:01:26,800 --> 00:01:29,280 Well, I think in some ways there are good things and bad things. 28 00:01:29,280 --> 00:01:33,000 The good thing is that Donald Trump has used American power in 29 00:01:33,000 --> 00:01:35,720 a way that even Bill Clinton didn't use American power when 30 00:01:35,720 --> 00:01:39,480 he managed to get the Osler Accords signed by Yasser Arafat 31 00:01:39,480 --> 00:01:42,680 for the PLO for the Palestinians and Yitzhak Rabin for the 32 00:01:42,680 --> 00:01:45,000 Israelis. So he was, you know, he played 33 00:01:45,000 --> 00:01:47,680 the role of the kind of honest broker in the middle. 34 00:01:47,680 --> 00:01:50,880 There was a, you know, there was a proper peace plan, which of 35 00:01:50,880 --> 00:01:53,920 course ended up in dust a few years later, partly because 36 00:01:54,000 --> 00:01:56,720 Yitzhak Rabin was assassinated. But also, you know, the, the 37 00:01:56,720 --> 00:02:00,880 process ran out of steam and, and, and the, the White House 38 00:02:00,880 --> 00:02:03,120 didn't give it the right amount of tension it should have done 39 00:02:03,120 --> 00:02:06,760 because it was just distracted by other things like Monica 40 00:02:06,760 --> 00:02:10,479 Lewinsky, like the wars in in the former Yugoslavia to give 41 00:02:10,479 --> 00:02:14,800 that process its full attention. And so on the destruction front, 42 00:02:14,880 --> 00:02:17,920 you know, that's probably bad news for Donald Trump because he 43 00:02:17,920 --> 00:02:20,960 will lose interest in this, I suspect, quite quickly. 44 00:02:21,360 --> 00:02:25,200 Where it was fascinating was to see Trump intervene in a very 45 00:02:25,200 --> 00:02:29,760 personal way because everything is personal for him, just as he 46 00:02:29,760 --> 00:02:31,720 says. I'm I'm upset with Russia, not 47 00:02:31,720 --> 00:02:33,880 because they've invaded a country, but because Vladimir 48 00:02:33,880 --> 00:02:36,640 Putin has let me down. He promised things that he 49 00:02:36,640 --> 00:02:40,680 didn't deliver in the same way Netanyahu let Trump down when he 50 00:02:40,680 --> 00:02:43,240 bombed Qatar. Trump's best mates in the Middle 51 00:02:43,240 --> 00:02:45,800 East who were going to give him a shiny plane one day. 52 00:02:46,840 --> 00:02:49,400 And even without checking with Trump and Trump, if he had 53 00:02:49,400 --> 00:02:51,000 checked, Trump would have said, you've got to be kidding, you're 54 00:02:51,000 --> 00:02:53,880 not going to do that. And and so it is personal. 55 00:02:53,880 --> 00:02:57,800 And Trump clearly got to a stage, many would say very late 56 00:02:57,800 --> 00:03:00,400 because he was at that stage, remember, back in February. 57 00:03:00,920 --> 00:03:03,120 And then he allowed the Israelis to break the ceasefire. 58 00:03:03,120 --> 00:03:05,440 But he got to that stage where he said, right, enough is 59 00:03:05,440 --> 00:03:06,920 enough. The fighting's got to stop. 60 00:03:07,120 --> 00:03:09,880 We've got that Nobel deadline on the 10th of October, which by 61 00:03:09,880 --> 00:03:12,880 the way, I think was crucial in his own mind, let's get this 62 00:03:12,880 --> 00:03:14,840 wrapped up. He always thought about the 63 00:03:14,840 --> 00:03:16,720 second anniversary of October, the 7th. 64 00:03:17,080 --> 00:03:19,960 And then, you know, it happened around about then in those days, 65 00:03:19,960 --> 00:03:21,640 too late for the Nobel committee. 66 00:03:21,920 --> 00:03:24,120 But in in his own mind, that was important. 67 00:03:24,640 --> 00:03:27,720 And I think and so historically, no, listen, we've had this, 68 00:03:27,760 --> 00:03:30,320 this, this Arab Israeli confident been going on since 69 00:03:30,320 --> 00:03:32,600 1948. Some would say it started 70 00:03:32,600 --> 00:03:34,760 earlier with the Balfour declaration and all that. 71 00:03:34,760 --> 00:03:36,640 Donald Trump says thousands of years. 72 00:03:36,640 --> 00:03:38,560 Thousands of years. OK, you want to you want to talk 73 00:03:38,560 --> 00:03:39,720 Bible? We can talk Bible. 74 00:03:39,720 --> 00:03:42,480 You know, I talked to Mike Huckabee, his ambassador in in 75 00:03:42,480 --> 00:03:45,240 Israel the other day. And I said, Mr. Huckabee, isn't 76 00:03:45,240 --> 00:03:48,800 it weird that you're using the Old Testament, you know, as a 77 00:03:48,800 --> 00:03:51,720 guide for, you know, how to solve geopolitical issues today? 78 00:03:51,720 --> 00:03:53,520 And Mike Huckabee said not at all. 79 00:03:53,880 --> 00:03:55,680 It's all about the Old Testament anyway. 80 00:03:55,720 --> 00:03:58,840 That's by the by. The point is that in the past 81 00:03:58,840 --> 00:04:01,480 when there were serious efforts at peace in the Middle East 82 00:04:01,480 --> 00:04:06,000 which have all failed, right? They have all consumed months 83 00:04:06,000 --> 00:04:09,600 and months of negotiations. There were processes in place. 84 00:04:09,600 --> 00:04:13,960 They've all failed because either the Israelis, often the 85 00:04:13,960 --> 00:04:18,200 Israelis or the Palestinians didn't didn't do what it said on 86 00:04:18,200 --> 00:04:21,640 the Tim and I and you know, but at least in those days, you had 87 00:04:21,640 --> 00:04:23,680 a kind of honest dish broke in the middle. 88 00:04:23,680 --> 00:04:26,440 I mean, with a biggish to be honest, right, because the 89 00:04:26,440 --> 00:04:29,120 Israelis are always going to be able to rely on America in the 90 00:04:29,120 --> 00:04:33,440 way that the Palestinians can't. But even the Oslo Accords, which 91 00:04:33,440 --> 00:04:36,440 were greeted with the same kind of fanfare that we saw in 92 00:04:36,440 --> 00:04:40,120 Jerusalem and in Sham Al Sheikh this week, they ended up nowhere 93 00:04:40,560 --> 00:04:43,440 because the the process wasn't solid enough. 94 00:04:43,520 --> 00:04:47,440 It wasn't kept honest enough. The Palestinians didn't do 95 00:04:47,440 --> 00:04:51,280 enough on their side and the Israelis didn't give them enough 96 00:04:51,280 --> 00:04:54,920 rope in order to establish a degree of self determination, 97 00:04:54,920 --> 00:04:57,320 and the Americans didn't enforce it. 98 00:04:57,560 --> 00:05:01,480 None of those things exist now as well, so I don't see this 99 00:05:01,480 --> 00:05:03,800 ending anywhere in a happy place I'm afraid. 100 00:05:04,040 --> 00:05:08,080 It's interesting you make that comparison because in a way that 101 00:05:08,080 --> 00:05:10,520 was even more of a moment because we actually had that 102 00:05:10,520 --> 00:05:14,680 famous picture of the three of them together, Rabin and Arafat 103 00:05:14,680 --> 00:05:17,560 together. You kind of can't really imagine 104 00:05:17,560 --> 00:05:20,560 now, despite what is a huge breakthrough. 105 00:05:20,560 --> 00:05:23,560 And I think the credit to Donald Trump is, however similar this 106 00:05:23,560 --> 00:05:27,640 might be to former plans. He actually forced Netanyahu to 107 00:05:27,640 --> 00:05:29,720 sign up to it. But you can't imagine a 108 00:05:29,840 --> 00:05:33,520 situation now where we've got Netanyahu and Abbas together. 109 00:05:33,640 --> 00:05:35,320 Well, well, hang on. He didn't turn up. 110 00:05:35,400 --> 00:05:38,120 Netanyahu did not turn up to Sharm El Sheikh, right, because 111 00:05:38,560 --> 00:05:42,200 and that was so important. His absence was so glaring and 112 00:05:42,200 --> 00:05:46,440 so important because he had Trump all to himself. 113 00:05:46,680 --> 00:05:50,200 Trump went to the Knesset. He's met the hostage families. 114 00:05:50,360 --> 00:05:54,160 He did an Israeli version of Trump world of the Trump show 115 00:05:54,560 --> 00:05:57,760 and it was great for Israel and they and there was all this, you 116 00:05:57,760 --> 00:05:59,440 know, joking and riffing going on. 117 00:05:59,480 --> 00:06:01,240 He pointed to the Israeli president. 118 00:06:01,240 --> 00:06:03,840 Why didn't you give this guy, as in Netanyahu, A pardon? 119 00:06:03,920 --> 00:06:06,800 Perhaps not understanding how the Israeli system words. 120 00:06:07,000 --> 00:06:09,240 But they gave him a standing ovation as well. 121 00:06:09,280 --> 00:06:12,120 So the most extraordinary thing, Donald Trump, like cigars, 122 00:06:12,120 --> 00:06:15,760 champagne, who cares? It's like he's accused 123 00:06:15,960 --> 00:06:18,920 Netanyahu, and of course he denies it, of, you know, taking 124 00:06:18,920 --> 00:06:24,280 $200,000 worth of gifts and of lightning regulation for a media 125 00:06:24,280 --> 00:06:26,480 company in return for good coverage. 126 00:06:26,480 --> 00:06:28,640 But yeah, I found that moment extraordinary as well. 127 00:06:28,800 --> 00:06:31,160 But but to get back to this, to the glaring absence of 128 00:06:31,160 --> 00:06:34,400 Netanyahu, if Netanyahu doesn't bother to show up in Sharm El 129 00:06:34,400 --> 00:06:37,800 Sheikh for the summit to which everyone has shown up, everyone 130 00:06:37,800 --> 00:06:40,360 was there except for the guy you really need to be there. 131 00:06:40,480 --> 00:06:43,960 Who needs to be seen to be shaking Mahmoud Abbas's hand, 132 00:06:43,960 --> 00:06:47,280 however frail that hand is, however much he dislikes it. 133 00:06:47,640 --> 00:06:49,880 That has to happen. And it didn't happen. 134 00:06:49,960 --> 00:06:53,280 And it will never happen because he has very clear that Abbas 135 00:06:53,280 --> 00:06:56,160 can't have a role in this if if Israel's going to sign up to it. 136 00:06:56,160 --> 00:06:57,640 But then who? Who does, right? 137 00:06:57,640 --> 00:06:59,720 So Mahwan Barghouti is stuck in jail. 138 00:06:59,720 --> 00:07:00,960 You know, they're not going to let him out. 139 00:07:01,160 --> 00:07:03,880 They haven't released him. And then, you know, he's often 140 00:07:03,880 --> 00:07:05,600 called the Nelson Mandela of this process. 141 00:07:05,600 --> 00:07:06,560 Well, they're not going to release him. 142 00:07:06,560 --> 00:07:08,800 And the question I constantly have in my mind. 143 00:07:08,800 --> 00:07:12,080 And I was extremely happy that the despite not being there, 144 00:07:12,080 --> 00:07:14,840 that the hostages were released and then there was a ceasefire, 145 00:07:15,040 --> 00:07:17,320 you know, of a sort, and that people were going back to their 146 00:07:17,720 --> 00:07:21,680 their houses. You have no prospect of any kind 147 00:07:21,680 --> 00:07:24,800 of future, let alone a state. Where's the job going to come 148 00:07:24,800 --> 00:07:27,680 from? 93% of agricultural land in Gaza 149 00:07:27,920 --> 00:07:30,960 has been destroyed. It will take a long time to get 150 00:07:30,960 --> 00:07:33,520 that back up and running, let alone rebuilding all these 151 00:07:33,520 --> 00:07:36,800 homes. I mean, the amount of anger and 152 00:07:36,800 --> 00:07:41,880 rage and vengefulness against Israel, but also against Hamas 153 00:07:42,040 --> 00:07:45,120 and how they will respond to it. They're still armed. 154 00:07:45,120 --> 00:07:46,920 They're not going to go up their arms anytime soon. 155 00:07:46,920 --> 00:07:48,360 It really looks like the opposite. 156 00:07:48,360 --> 00:07:52,320 But think of the think of the emotion that will be, you know, 157 00:07:52,400 --> 00:07:55,000 at the moment it's all about, you know, we've survived, right? 158 00:07:55,000 --> 00:07:56,880 We've survived 2 years. We're still living. 159 00:07:56,880 --> 00:07:59,640 We still have a pulse. Let's go back to where we came 160 00:07:59,640 --> 00:08:01,080 from. The minute you have the time to 161 00:08:01,080 --> 00:08:04,960 reflect on what's actually gone down and who's responsible for 162 00:08:04,960 --> 00:08:08,240 it, you are, you're going to build up so many layers of 163 00:08:08,240 --> 00:08:11,560 resentment that you need the biggest and the best trust 164 00:08:11,560 --> 00:08:15,120 building machine on the planet. And I didn't see anything like 165 00:08:15,120 --> 00:08:16,920 that kit anywhere on the horizon. 166 00:08:17,040 --> 00:08:19,160 There are a couple of things I think we can be very positive 167 00:08:19,160 --> 00:08:20,360 about which we could just come to. 168 00:08:20,360 --> 00:08:24,840 But I just can we just pause on the actual scenes in Egypt with 169 00:08:24,840 --> 00:08:28,760 Donald Trump at the podium and all the world leaders desperate 170 00:08:28,760 --> 00:08:30,520 to be there. I, I really wished as I was 171 00:08:30,520 --> 00:08:33,799 watching it that he could have had like, you know, a mind read 172 00:08:33,799 --> 00:08:37,679 of what Keir Starmer and Georgia Maloney were thinking because 173 00:08:37,679 --> 00:08:40,440 they got their coveted spaces right behind him. 174 00:08:40,720 --> 00:08:44,080 And I thought Starmer looked so uncomfortable folding his arms, 175 00:08:44,320 --> 00:08:47,200 kind of going 0. It's so medieval, it's so 176 00:08:47,200 --> 00:08:49,720 monarchical, the way that they all come up and kiss his wing. 177 00:08:49,880 --> 00:08:51,200 They're summoned up individually. 178 00:08:51,320 --> 00:08:54,440 He wasn't even in in Washington. He was in Sham Al Sheikh, for 179 00:08:54,440 --> 00:08:56,440 goodness sake, you know, in someone else's country. 180 00:08:56,880 --> 00:08:59,640 And he got the great, you know, the great award, the, the order 181 00:08:59,640 --> 00:09:02,040 of of the Nile. Then he got the some Israeli 182 00:09:02,040 --> 00:09:03,560 award as well. I mean, he is. 183 00:09:03,680 --> 00:09:07,200 He is the most garlanded president ever in the history of 184 00:09:07,200 --> 00:09:09,640 peacemaking, which we know is thousands of years. 185 00:09:10,400 --> 00:09:12,760 And he was telling off Norway at one point because he's so upset 186 00:09:12,760 --> 00:09:15,240 about the Nobel Peace Prize. And to be fair, there is 187 00:09:15,240 --> 00:09:19,480 precedent in 2009 of Obama winning it based on what had 188 00:09:19,480 --> 00:09:22,720 happened in 2009, not 2008. Of course. 189 00:09:22,800 --> 00:09:26,080 I mean, if it really is this big kind of motivator for him, I 190 00:09:26,080 --> 00:09:29,000 suppose the fact that it's still on the table potentially for 191 00:09:29,000 --> 00:09:33,200 next year is a good thing if that's really what the, you 192 00:09:33,200 --> 00:09:36,160 know, aim of it is. I was speaking to someone on the 193 00:09:36,160 --> 00:09:38,920 Qatari side yesterday. He was basically arguing it's 194 00:09:38,920 --> 00:09:40,880 not really about the Nobel Peace Prize. 195 00:09:41,080 --> 00:09:44,080 It's about him wanting to show that he's a deal maker around 196 00:09:44,080 --> 00:09:47,240 the world. I, I, I, which I think can have 197 00:09:47,240 --> 00:09:49,960 some problems for him here in the US because although 198 00:09:49,960 --> 00:09:53,160 obviously it was a huge story and it was, you know, all over 199 00:09:53,200 --> 00:09:58,240 the newspapers and the TV stations already today, you can 200 00:09:58,240 --> 00:10:02,480 see that it is not the priority for people in America. 201 00:10:02,480 --> 00:10:05,440 And how is he going to play this with also being an America first 202 00:10:05,840 --> 00:10:07,440 president? I mean, the bit I think that is 203 00:10:07,440 --> 00:10:10,480 the most hopeful, I guess from all of this is that America has 204 00:10:10,480 --> 00:10:13,240 always been very one sided in the Middle East. 205 00:10:13,240 --> 00:10:16,080 And I think still is absolutely. You could see in that Knesset 206 00:10:16,080 --> 00:10:18,560 speech, Israel's ally first and foremost. 207 00:10:18,560 --> 00:10:21,760 But Donald Trump feels really quite passionately about the 208 00:10:21,760 --> 00:10:23,600 relationships he's built with Arab countries. 209 00:10:23,800 --> 00:10:26,200 I suspect it's a lot to do with the amount of money that can be 210 00:10:26,200 --> 00:10:28,760 made from all of this. But nevertheless, you know, 211 00:10:28,760 --> 00:10:31,200 listening to him say to reporters about the Qataris, 212 00:10:31,200 --> 00:10:34,320 like they said, you know, in 2017, you accused him of funding 213 00:10:34,320 --> 00:10:36,400 terrorism. And he said, oh, yeah, I just 214 00:10:36,400 --> 00:10:38,440 didn't know them then. Didn't know them very well then. 215 00:10:38,520 --> 00:10:41,040 Well, you know, I've people. Change in Rushka, people change 216 00:10:41,040 --> 00:10:43,160 they evolved, they develop, you know but he's. 217 00:10:43,200 --> 00:10:45,960 Well signed an executive order which is almost feels like an 218 00:10:45,960 --> 00:10:49,640 Article 5 for Qatar. If Qatar is attacked, that is 219 00:10:49,640 --> 00:10:52,240 like an attack on American. Peace and exactly and if 220 00:10:52,240 --> 00:10:55,280 especially if anyone attacks a new jumbo jet that's being built 221 00:10:55,280 --> 00:10:58,240 somewhere on a Qatari air base, they deserve the worst kind of 222 00:10:58,240 --> 00:11:01,840 punishment. I mean, the again, you like a 223 00:11:01,840 --> 00:11:04,760 lot of Trump stuff. You can't really make it up. 224 00:11:05,000 --> 00:11:08,000 You really can't make it up. But I think what's so 225 00:11:08,000 --> 00:11:11,880 fascinating about this Shama Sheikh moment is also that, you 226 00:11:11,880 --> 00:11:15,000 know, and and thank God, our podcast is called Trump World 227 00:11:15,360 --> 00:11:18,680 because it really is, you know, whether you are, you know, 228 00:11:19,080 --> 00:11:22,560 Chinese, Russian, North Korean, Iranian, none of these people 229 00:11:22,560 --> 00:11:24,320 like Trump anymore. Particularly. 230 00:11:25,240 --> 00:11:29,360 It is how he channels presidential power, his 231 00:11:29,360 --> 00:11:33,640 interpretation of presidential power from America. 232 00:11:34,080 --> 00:11:36,200 And it makes all these other people who were there to kiss 233 00:11:36,200 --> 00:11:39,600 his ring like sort of, you know, extras in another version of The 234 00:11:39,600 --> 00:11:41,920 Apprentice. It is, you know, you can take 235 00:11:41,920 --> 00:11:45,120 the man out of television, but you cannot take television out 236 00:11:45,120 --> 00:11:48,440 of the man. And I think again, you know, the 237 00:11:48,440 --> 00:11:51,440 best thing we can do is weaponize his vanity for the 238 00:11:51,440 --> 00:11:54,160 next Nobel Prize. Honestly, I think if, if I was 239 00:11:54,160 --> 00:11:56,840 the Nobel Committee, I would, you know, I would talk to the 240 00:11:56,840 --> 00:12:00,440 Saudis and I would talk to the Qataris and I would talk to the 241 00:12:00,440 --> 00:12:03,240 Israelis as well and, and whoever you can talk to on the 242 00:12:03,240 --> 00:12:06,520 Palestinian side. So can we just ring up Donald 243 00:12:06,520 --> 00:12:10,000 Trump every week, let's say Thursday, 10:00 in the morning 244 00:12:10,400 --> 00:12:13,920 when he's having his second cup of hot chocolate or whatever he 245 00:12:13,920 --> 00:12:18,120 drinks, and just remind him that that prize is so his prize. 246 00:12:18,120 --> 00:12:21,120 If you could only do the following five things because 247 00:12:21,680 --> 00:12:24,920 weaponizing his vanity. And that's what it is. 248 00:12:25,080 --> 00:12:27,920 You know, all narcissism and I've experienced it, you know, 249 00:12:27,960 --> 00:12:32,840 first hand is literally the best hope that we have of peace in 250 00:12:32,840 --> 00:12:34,840 the Middle East or peace in Ukraine. 251 00:12:35,320 --> 00:12:37,520 And if that's what it takes, go for it. 252 00:12:37,720 --> 00:12:39,160 Yeah, because in the end it's worth it. 253 00:12:39,160 --> 00:12:41,880 Although I was thinking if there was to be a Nobel Peace Prize, 254 00:12:42,200 --> 00:12:44,720 I, I feel a bit sorry for these mediator countries which have 255 00:12:44,720 --> 00:12:47,920 played such a critical role. Could it be joint with them 256 00:12:47,920 --> 00:12:49,400 maybe? Oh yeah, I did. 257 00:12:49,520 --> 00:12:51,120 Trump doesn't. Are you kidding me? 258 00:12:51,120 --> 00:12:54,520 Trump doing joint, you know, you've got to be no, no, no, no, 259 00:12:54,680 --> 00:12:56,960 they've got to get little. Maybe there can be mini prize or 260 00:12:56,960 --> 00:13:00,080 like, you know, he he invented the meme coin for in, you know, 261 00:13:00,120 --> 00:13:02,120 in his own family's name. There's his meme coin and 262 00:13:02,120 --> 00:13:04,680 there's Milania's meme coin and the kids have got a meme coin. 263 00:13:04,920 --> 00:13:08,040 Maybe there can be a meme coin. There's sort of mini, a mini 264 00:13:08,040 --> 00:13:11,560 Nobel meme coin or mini Nobel Prize, like a tiny, tiny little 265 00:13:11,560 --> 00:13:14,520 one that they get because he might just about stomach that. 266 00:13:14,520 --> 00:13:18,200 But I think anything that that queers his Nobel pitch, as it 267 00:13:18,200 --> 00:13:20,720 were, would be a really, really bad idea. 268 00:13:20,920 --> 00:13:23,480 And of course, what's so interesting is that he's now got 269 00:13:23,480 --> 00:13:27,960 Zelensky coming to and a team of Ukrainian negotiators coming to 270 00:13:28,480 --> 00:13:31,280 the White House. And you'll be there on Friday. 271 00:13:31,920 --> 00:13:35,520 And, and maybe he thinks the way that Blair once did after the 272 00:13:35,520 --> 00:13:38,360 Good Friday Agreement, that he can sort of, you know, ride the 273 00:13:38,360 --> 00:13:40,680 wave of peace all the way to Ukraine. 274 00:13:40,680 --> 00:13:43,760 I mean, it'll be so interesting to see whether that will 275 00:13:43,760 --> 00:13:46,080 persuade him to give the Ukrainians what they really want 276 00:13:46,080 --> 00:13:49,440 from the Americans, which is the permission to buy, buy, not be 277 00:13:49,440 --> 00:13:53,360 given Tomahawk long range missiles, 1500 mile range. 278 00:13:53,360 --> 00:13:56,760 That could take out not just bits in Moscow, but also targets 279 00:13:56,760 --> 00:13:59,720 well beyond that in the Urals. That would be a really big deal 280 00:13:59,720 --> 00:14:01,920 for Ukraine. And it's comes at a moment when 281 00:14:01,920 --> 00:14:04,840 Russia is feeling apparently a little bit more vulnerable than 282 00:14:04,840 --> 00:14:08,840 it did because that Donald Trump love moment, love bombing moment 283 00:14:08,840 --> 00:14:12,280 in Alaska did not go as well as they thought they it did. 284 00:14:12,280 --> 00:14:16,800 So let's see whether Trump can ride this wave and and weaponize 285 00:14:16,800 --> 00:14:20,520 his vanity in other useful ways. The difference, though, of 286 00:14:20,520 --> 00:14:25,040 course, is Vladimir Putin and Benjamin Netanyahu have totally 287 00:14:25,480 --> 00:14:28,160 differing relationships with Donald Trump, and America's 288 00:14:28,160 --> 00:14:32,760 influence over Russia isn't the same as it is over Israel. 289 00:14:32,760 --> 00:14:34,560 So it's quite a different thing. Can I just ask you one thing? 290 00:14:34,560 --> 00:14:38,400 You mentioned the Balkans when we were talking earlier in your 291 00:14:38,400 --> 00:14:42,920 time there, and I know that you were in Sarajevo when a lot of 292 00:14:42,920 --> 00:14:44,600 the stuff you were talking about was happening. 293 00:14:44,600 --> 00:14:48,560 And one of the big things there is what happens next. 294 00:14:48,720 --> 00:14:50,840 Once you've got an agreement, what do you need? 295 00:14:50,840 --> 00:14:54,440 And are there any signs of some of the practical things you need 296 00:14:54,520 --> 00:14:56,680 this time round? So sorry, it was really 297 00:14:56,680 --> 00:14:59,240 interesting and I'm glad you brought it up because that was a 298 00:14:59,240 --> 00:15:04,000 conflict, you know, the, the ex Yugoslavia was falling apart. 299 00:15:04,400 --> 00:15:07,360 The Serbs who were the dominant power in the in the kind of, you 300 00:15:07,360 --> 00:15:11,600 know, super former Yugoslavia basically decided to protect 301 00:15:11,600 --> 00:15:15,280 Serbian minorities wherever they existed, which meant that, you 302 00:15:15,280 --> 00:15:18,440 know, Bosnian independence OR Croatian independence within the 303 00:15:18,440 --> 00:15:21,240 borders as defined, you know, in the former Yugoslavia was a 304 00:15:21,240 --> 00:15:24,240 problem because there were always these Serb minorities 305 00:15:24,240 --> 00:15:26,760 living in these countries, these fledgling countries. 306 00:15:27,240 --> 00:15:29,320 And the Serbs used that as an excuse. 307 00:15:29,600 --> 00:15:33,080 You know, our minority of Serbs is under fire in order to 308 00:15:33,080 --> 00:15:36,440 basically either carve away at those new countries, you know, 309 00:15:36,440 --> 00:15:38,840 or, you know, or try and dominate them. 310 00:15:39,200 --> 00:15:42,920 And in the case of Bosnia, America wasn't really interested 311 00:15:42,920 --> 00:15:44,800 in fact. PJ O'Rourke, the, you know, 312 00:15:45,120 --> 00:15:49,040 right wing pop, you know, very abrasive, very funny, author 313 00:15:49,320 --> 00:15:50,920 said. It's like the unspellables 314 00:15:51,000 --> 00:15:53,600 versus the unpronounceables, you know, in other words, this is 315 00:15:53,600 --> 00:15:55,560 foreign stuff. It's happening on Europe's 316 00:15:55,560 --> 00:15:56,880 doorstep. They should deal with it a 317 00:15:56,880 --> 00:15:59,120 little bit. Hints of Ukraine there, the kind 318 00:15:59,120 --> 00:16:00,560 of language used today about Ukraine. 319 00:16:00,680 --> 00:16:03,480 Let them sort it out, except that Europe couldn't sort it 320 00:16:03,480 --> 00:16:05,240 out. The EU was useless at sorting it 321 00:16:05,240 --> 00:16:07,440 out. And so America finally got 322 00:16:07,440 --> 00:16:11,640 involved and actually it was Tony Blair when he became Prime 323 00:16:11,640 --> 00:16:15,000 Minister, who really held as soon as he became Prime 324 00:16:15,000 --> 00:16:18,480 Minister, Bill Clinton's feet to the fire on a related issue in 325 00:16:18,480 --> 00:16:21,320 Kosovo to say you've got to put American brutes on the ground. 326 00:16:21,320 --> 00:16:22,960 You've got to get involved with air strikes. 327 00:16:23,200 --> 00:16:25,520 You've got to tell the Serbs that they cannot carry on 328 00:16:25,760 --> 00:16:27,800 messing around that in the way that they did. 329 00:16:27,800 --> 00:16:31,240 And then at the end of this process, which did involve 330 00:16:31,240 --> 00:16:35,800 American military intervention, there was a so-called Dayton 331 00:16:35,800 --> 00:16:37,920 process. So at the Dayton Accords in 332 00:16:37,920 --> 00:16:42,480 Dayton, OH, now I know you'll be going to Ohio, but you may not 333 00:16:42,480 --> 00:16:44,840 be anymore because it's not as much of A swing state as it used 334 00:16:44,840 --> 00:16:47,000 to be. I've been there 26 times. 335 00:16:47,120 --> 00:16:50,160 Dayton, OH, boring town. It has a military air base on 336 00:16:50,160 --> 00:16:53,080 it, right or near it. And that's where Richard 337 00:16:53,080 --> 00:16:55,960 Holbrooke, who was the assistant Secretary of State under 338 00:16:56,280 --> 00:16:59,120 Madeleine Albright, the Secretary of State, and Bill 339 00:16:59,120 --> 00:17:02,560 Clinton. And he basically was in charge 340 00:17:02,560 --> 00:17:05,000 of this process, which involved getting all the different 341 00:17:05,000 --> 00:17:08,000 parties from the wars, the crowds, the Serbs, the Bosniaks 342 00:17:08,520 --> 00:17:11,599 all into this air base. They all got the same crappy 343 00:17:11,599 --> 00:17:13,760 accommodation. And and apparently I talked to 344 00:17:13,760 --> 00:17:16,200 someone, you know, who was there at the time helping to organize 345 00:17:16,200 --> 00:17:18,040 it. He said we spent a lot of time 346 00:17:18,440 --> 00:17:21,839 basically, you know, persuading them that their rooms were just 347 00:17:21,839 --> 00:17:23,359 as bad as the other parties rooms. 348 00:17:23,359 --> 00:17:24,720 You know, no one got a better deal. 349 00:17:24,720 --> 00:17:27,520 The Serbs weren't living in five star luxury while they all the 350 00:17:27,520 --> 00:17:31,160 others were in two star luxury. It was all one star across the 351 00:17:31,160 --> 00:17:33,280 board. And they all had to eat in a 352 00:17:33,280 --> 00:17:36,520 canteen together. And, and Holbrook, it was almost 353 00:17:36,520 --> 00:17:38,040 like a sort of conclave of old way. 354 00:17:38,040 --> 00:17:39,960 He said, we are. You're going to make an 355 00:17:40,000 --> 00:17:41,800 agreement here. Here's the outline. 356 00:17:41,800 --> 00:17:43,520 Here's the plan. We're going to help enforce it. 357 00:17:43,760 --> 00:17:45,320 But you've got to come up with this agreement. 358 00:17:45,320 --> 00:17:48,160 And if you don't, you know, I'm going to take away your lunch 359 00:17:48,160 --> 00:17:50,600 and your dinner and you'll be stuck in this miserable place 360 00:17:50,600 --> 00:17:52,400 for even longer. And, and they did it. 361 00:17:52,400 --> 00:17:54,840 It took a couple of weeks, but they've sorted it out. 362 00:17:55,400 --> 00:17:59,080 There was the date and accords. And although, you know, people 363 00:17:59,080 --> 00:18:02,000 have tried to chip away at them and things in Bosnia look a bit 364 00:18:02,000 --> 00:18:05,680 shaky these days, and Serbia is, yeah, also in in a pretty bad 365 00:18:05,680 --> 00:18:09,200 place. That was 30 years ago, roughly. 366 00:18:10,040 --> 00:18:12,800 And it's held that long. And in the Balkans, you know, 367 00:18:13,040 --> 00:18:14,760 that's something you can take to the bank. 368 00:18:14,760 --> 00:18:17,960 So I think it needs, again, it needs a process. 369 00:18:18,040 --> 00:18:22,280 It needs for America to enforce it as a as an honest broker, 370 00:18:22,280 --> 00:18:24,760 which the obviously the Palestinians at the moment don't 371 00:18:24,760 --> 00:18:28,480 really think it is. And it needs, you know, for the 372 00:18:28,480 --> 00:18:31,160 all the sides to eyeball each other at some stage. 373 00:18:31,160 --> 00:18:34,320 I mean, you can go to their respective barracks and hotel 374 00:18:34,320 --> 00:18:36,080 rooms and say we've got this and we've got that. 375 00:18:36,080 --> 00:18:38,360 And that's what the Qataris have been doing brilliantly for 376 00:18:38,360 --> 00:18:41,200 years. But at some stage, Netanyahu, 377 00:18:41,200 --> 00:18:45,800 whoever replaces him, has to look whichever Palestinian is 378 00:18:45,800 --> 00:18:49,840 the interlocutor on the other side, eyeball to eyeball, shake 379 00:18:49,840 --> 00:18:55,200 on it, sign a piece of paper and know that the Americans, maybe 380 00:18:55,200 --> 00:18:58,040 with the UN, maybe not, are there to enforce it. 381 00:18:58,560 --> 00:19:01,800 And and I guess, Matt, that's the next big question. 382 00:19:01,920 --> 00:19:05,400 What happens now? Does phase two actually happen? 383 00:19:05,400 --> 00:19:07,240 Is Donald Trump interested in it? 384 00:19:07,240 --> 00:19:09,560 Which I think is the perfect time to bring in our guest. 385 00:19:10,920 --> 00:19:13,760 I'm very happy to introduce our guest for this edition of 386 00:19:13,760 --> 00:19:17,320 Trumbold, Jasmine Elgamal. She's a veteran of the 387 00:19:17,320 --> 00:19:20,040 Department of Defence in the US. She's worked for three 388 00:19:20,040 --> 00:19:22,800 Secretaries of Defence as a Middle East analyst. 389 00:19:22,800 --> 00:19:26,400 She knows all about how the process of what you do, you 390 00:19:26,400 --> 00:19:29,280 know, when you end a war. And therefore she's the perfect 391 00:19:29,280 --> 00:19:32,760 person to talk to us about Gaza, but also what the what the 392 00:19:32,760 --> 00:19:36,080 process is, what the formalities are, what the legalities might 393 00:19:36,080 --> 00:19:37,400 be. And I'm very happy to say that 394 00:19:37,680 --> 00:19:40,160 she's got her own podcast called The View from here. 395 00:19:40,160 --> 00:19:44,040 Jasmine, welcome to the program. Thank you so much for having me. 396 00:19:44,560 --> 00:19:47,240 There's a lot to unpack here. And of course, you know, the 397 00:19:47,240 --> 00:19:51,080 world is still high on the kind of the, on the sugar high of, 398 00:19:51,120 --> 00:19:54,320 of, of the ceasefire, which is kind of holding, although 399 00:19:54,320 --> 00:19:56,240 there've been some very alarming developments there. 400 00:19:56,560 --> 00:19:58,800 The release of the hostages, they're all out now. 401 00:19:59,160 --> 00:20:03,080 The mood in Israel was extraordinarily euphoric, as we 402 00:20:03,080 --> 00:20:06,760 kept seeing on television. But it was also whether in 403 00:20:06,760 --> 00:20:11,080 Israel or indeed in Sham Al Sheikh at the summit, it was all 404 00:20:11,080 --> 00:20:15,760 about Donald J Trump. This was the Trump Show, was it 405 00:20:15,760 --> 00:20:17,680 not? It really was. 406 00:20:17,680 --> 00:20:20,720 And you know what, for once, it was deserved. 407 00:20:20,840 --> 00:20:24,320 It was well deserved because we have known for such a long time. 408 00:20:24,320 --> 00:20:27,960 And Matt, I remember talking to you, you know, throughout the 409 00:20:28,120 --> 00:20:33,040 the last two years on on the news channel and talking about 410 00:20:33,440 --> 00:20:38,480 the various, you know, stages of the war and, and how it can be 411 00:20:38,480 --> 00:20:41,280 stopped and who can stop Prime Minister Netanyahu. 412 00:20:41,280 --> 00:20:43,640 And for most of the time, our conversations were happening 413 00:20:43,640 --> 00:20:46,760 under the Biden administration. And the big question that 414 00:20:46,760 --> 00:20:51,200 everyone had on their minds was, what leverage does the US have 415 00:20:51,280 --> 00:20:53,680 to shape the Israeli response in Gaza? 416 00:20:53,680 --> 00:20:55,840 And why aren't they using that leverage? 417 00:20:56,400 --> 00:21:01,320 And so we have always known that this war would be shaped and 418 00:21:01,320 --> 00:21:04,120 eventually ended with US pressure. 419 00:21:04,280 --> 00:21:07,000 That was the only way it was going to stop because that's the 420 00:21:07,000 --> 00:21:11,280 only country that the Israeli Prime Minister would listen to 421 00:21:11,520 --> 00:21:14,680 and the only country that had power over the Israeli Prime 422 00:21:14,680 --> 00:21:17,640 Minister, Right. the US is the largest supplier of weapons to 423 00:21:17,640 --> 00:21:20,600 the US. It protects Israel on the 424 00:21:20,600 --> 00:21:24,560 international stage with using the US veto in the UN Security 425 00:21:24,560 --> 00:21:27,560 Council when necessary. All different kinds of things. 426 00:21:28,120 --> 00:21:32,360 And So what we saw throughout the Biden administration was a 427 00:21:32,360 --> 00:21:35,720 reluctance to use that powerful American leverage. 428 00:21:36,000 --> 00:21:39,440 And that was a very personal choice by President Biden. 429 00:21:39,440 --> 00:21:43,040 I have spoken to so many of my former colleagues in the US 430 00:21:43,040 --> 00:21:46,920 government and the the wall to wall consensus is that this was 431 00:21:46,920 --> 00:21:49,160 Biden's decision every single time. 432 00:21:50,200 --> 00:21:53,400 So when it came to, when it came, when Donald Trump came in 433 00:21:53,680 --> 00:21:56,520 and he made it clear that he wanted to come in and end these 434 00:21:56,520 --> 00:22:00,800 wars in Ukraine and in Gaza, he put on that pressure. 435 00:22:01,240 --> 00:22:04,600 We saw a ceasefire in January. It fell through. 436 00:22:04,600 --> 00:22:07,560 When they started negotiating the second phase of that 437 00:22:07,560 --> 00:22:09,800 ceasefire, Prime Minister Netanyahu said, I don't want to 438 00:22:09,800 --> 00:22:12,680 go into phase two. I I want to change the terms. 439 00:22:13,560 --> 00:22:16,800 President Trump lost energy and focus for a while, and then he 440 00:22:16,800 --> 00:22:21,080 came back after Israel overstepped by trying to 441 00:22:21,240 --> 00:22:24,240 assassinate the Hamas negotiators in Qatar. 442 00:22:24,520 --> 00:22:28,240 He came back with a vengeance, with the full force of US 443 00:22:28,240 --> 00:22:30,440 pressure and made this ceasefire happen. 444 00:22:30,600 --> 00:22:32,280 So he does give the credit for that. 445 00:22:32,520 --> 00:22:35,160 He does and the way you're saying it, but it just leads me 446 00:22:35,160 --> 00:22:38,280 to the question, why? Why did Joe Biden not use that 447 00:22:38,760 --> 00:22:41,160 leverage? Did you get a sense of the 448 00:22:41,200 --> 00:22:43,240 motivation that was holding him back? 449 00:22:43,240 --> 00:22:46,560 He was under a lot of pressure from within his own party by the 450 00:22:46,560 --> 00:22:48,760 end. Yes, and the American public as 451 00:22:48,880 --> 00:22:52,600 as well, which over the last two years have really increasingly 452 00:22:52,600 --> 00:22:58,920 leaned towards an end to the war, a rethinking of US support 453 00:22:58,920 --> 00:23:02,240 for Israel and how unconditional it is and wanting to look into 454 00:23:02,240 --> 00:23:05,520 that. And, and so he had. 455 00:23:05,600 --> 00:23:09,320 He had what he needed to be able to make those decisions. 456 00:23:09,800 --> 00:23:12,880 By all accounts, everyone that I've spoken to, and this is also 457 00:23:12,880 --> 00:23:16,480 in the public and you've seen former officials and, and, and 458 00:23:16,480 --> 00:23:18,880 DC based reporters write about this. 459 00:23:18,880 --> 00:23:23,280 It was just, it was a personal love for Israel and not wanting 460 00:23:23,280 --> 00:23:27,880 to be seen as betraying Israel. And what he saw was it's time of 461 00:23:27,880 --> 00:23:30,560 need. But it also was a personal 462 00:23:30,560 --> 00:23:34,080 slight to Donald Trump, the bombing of Qatar to try and take 463 00:23:34,080 --> 00:23:37,280 out the Hamas negotiators, you know, bombing the country that 464 00:23:37,280 --> 00:23:40,440 was going to give Trump his shiny new plane where America 465 00:23:40,440 --> 00:23:43,160 has its most important military base in the Middle East. 466 00:23:43,360 --> 00:23:45,960 You know, these are the guys that Trump really likes and gets 467 00:23:45,960 --> 00:23:47,600 on with and then suddenly get bombed. 468 00:23:47,760 --> 00:23:50,000 And they didn't really check properly with Trump whether they 469 00:23:50,000 --> 00:23:52,200 were allowed to do so. There was quite a lot of 470 00:23:52,200 --> 00:23:54,480 fuzziness around that. But I think for Trump, that was 471 00:23:54,480 --> 00:23:57,600 a an absolute game changer. And he then famously, of course, 472 00:23:57,600 --> 00:24:02,360 made Netanyahu ring them up on a sort of old style phone and 473 00:24:02,360 --> 00:24:04,800 apologised to the emir personally. 474 00:24:04,800 --> 00:24:06,520 And he did this in the Oval Office. 475 00:24:06,840 --> 00:24:09,200 It was photographed by the White House photographers. 476 00:24:09,440 --> 00:24:11,720 They, they put the the picture out there. 477 00:24:12,200 --> 00:24:15,040 And for for Netanyahu, that would have been a moment of 478 00:24:15,040 --> 00:24:18,160 humiliation. Now, the question is those how 479 00:24:18,160 --> 00:24:22,280 do you convert this very personal style of politics where 480 00:24:22,280 --> 00:24:25,400 it's all about who kisses the ring and who doesn't into a 481 00:24:25,440 --> 00:24:29,960 process that allows you to disarm Hamas, make sure the 482 00:24:29,960 --> 00:24:33,360 Israelis would draw behind a certain line, help rebuild Gaza, 483 00:24:33,480 --> 00:24:36,120 most importantly, help rebuild trust. 484 00:24:36,240 --> 00:24:39,120 Have, I don't know, some truth and reconciliation committee 485 00:24:39,120 --> 00:24:41,560 about all the horrible stuff that's gone down. 486 00:24:42,320 --> 00:24:46,600 Trump alone cannot do that. And Trump may not want to do 487 00:24:46,600 --> 00:24:48,240 that. And surely Jasmine, that's a 488 00:24:48,240 --> 00:24:51,840 problem. I mean, that's the $1,000,000 489 00:24:51,840 --> 00:24:55,400 question right now, isn't it? I mean, this is being celebrated 490 00:24:55,400 --> 00:25:00,120 as this gigantic peace deal and, you know, the worst is over and 491 00:25:00,120 --> 00:25:03,880 Trump deserves the Nobel Peace Prize and all of that stuff and, 492 00:25:03,880 --> 00:25:08,400 and all of those things. And the, the, the, you know, the 493 00:25:08,400 --> 00:25:13,840 reality is, is much less dramatic than that. 494 00:25:13,840 --> 00:25:16,440 It's about details, it's about process. 495 00:25:16,440 --> 00:25:21,400 It's about what happens next and who is going to show up to start 496 00:25:21,400 --> 00:25:25,040 implementing the deal. And there are a lot of 497 00:25:25,040 --> 00:25:28,280 challenges ahead. I, I can talk about a couple 498 00:25:28,280 --> 00:25:33,720 that in my mind are the most worrying in terms of if we don't 499 00:25:33,720 --> 00:25:39,440 get this right, we could see a return to conflict. 1 is that 500 00:25:39,680 --> 00:25:44,480 Prime Minister Netanyahu obviously unwill unwillingly 501 00:25:44,480 --> 00:25:46,640 signed, you know, this ceasefire deal. 502 00:25:46,640 --> 00:25:51,200 He had been under a lot of pressure from his fellow sort of 503 00:25:51,280 --> 00:25:56,280 his, the extreme right wing portion of his cabinet, which 504 00:25:56,280 --> 00:25:58,800 represents that side of Israeli society. 505 00:25:59,440 --> 00:26:04,280 Ben Gavir and Smotrich, we both know those names, the security 506 00:26:04,280 --> 00:26:08,200 minister and the finance minister, and they had been 507 00:26:08,200 --> 00:26:14,120 pressuring him for months and months not to sign any deal that 508 00:26:14,120 --> 00:26:17,520 would involve a permanent end to conflict. 509 00:26:17,800 --> 00:26:20,920 And that was one of the reasons that the ceasefire fell through 510 00:26:20,920 --> 00:26:25,920 in January is because once the initial phase was done and the 511 00:26:25,920 --> 00:26:30,040 exchange of hot those that first batch of hostages was released, 512 00:26:30,840 --> 00:26:33,360 Netanyahu didn't want to commit to ending the war. 513 00:26:33,360 --> 00:26:38,560 He wanted to be able to go back. The problem with that is, is, is 514 00:26:38,560 --> 00:26:44,960 that there are different visions that are being discussed in 515 00:26:44,960 --> 00:26:48,720 Israel and, and the differences between what the Israelis are 516 00:26:48,720 --> 00:26:52,200 saying to the English speaking public to the world, and what 517 00:26:52,200 --> 00:26:56,040 they're saying inside their own country domestically in their 518 00:26:56,040 --> 00:26:58,720 own language. And you can see the difference 519 00:26:58,720 --> 00:27:02,200 in those two tones when you look at what Netanyahu is saying 520 00:27:02,200 --> 00:27:05,560 publicly to the world and what he's saying to Israelis. 521 00:27:05,560 --> 00:27:09,000 And what he's saying to Israelis is that this is not over, that 522 00:27:09,000 --> 00:27:11,640 he knows that there are still people who want to destroy 523 00:27:11,640 --> 00:27:14,640 Israel, that he's going to be keeping an eye on it and that 524 00:27:14,640 --> 00:27:17,360 he's going to go in again if he needs to. 525 00:27:18,160 --> 00:27:20,720 And all you need to do is look at the ceasefire that was signed 526 00:27:20,720 --> 00:27:24,000 in Lebanon, which has been violated nearly every day since 527 00:27:24,000 --> 00:27:28,080 it's been signed. So this idea that Israel wants 528 00:27:28,080 --> 00:27:33,880 to continue to go into Gaza at will whenever it sees a need is 529 00:27:34,640 --> 00:27:39,800 a big loophole that was in that ceasefire agreement and and has 530 00:27:39,800 --> 00:27:42,880 the potential to derail that process altogether. 531 00:27:43,200 --> 00:27:46,080 The other big one, of course, is what you mentioned, Matt, about 532 00:27:46,080 --> 00:27:49,040 Hamas's disarmament. And there have already been 533 00:27:49,040 --> 00:27:52,000 discussions that have started about what that process could 534 00:27:52,000 --> 00:27:56,960 look like, who Hamas would turn their weapons over to if they 535 00:27:56,960 --> 00:28:00,600 did turn their weapons over to, whether that would be to a 536 00:28:00,600 --> 00:28:04,440 Palestinian government authority, a Palestinian force, 537 00:28:04,680 --> 00:28:10,000 whether those weapons would be held and frozen or, or whether 538 00:28:10,000 --> 00:28:11,560 they will just keep their weapons. 539 00:28:11,560 --> 00:28:16,040 So that's one of the big things that is still going to be worked 540 00:28:16,040 --> 00:28:18,000 out I think over the next few months. 541 00:28:18,040 --> 00:28:20,880 And the early signs on that are not particularly positive. 542 00:28:20,880 --> 00:28:24,400 We've already seen what looks like public executions by Hamas. 543 00:28:24,400 --> 00:28:29,240 It looks like they're trying to use their arms to make sure they 544 00:28:29,280 --> 00:28:32,440 retain control over Gaza. And I thought it was really 545 00:28:32,680 --> 00:28:34,920 extraordinary really, because when Donald Trump was asked 546 00:28:34,920 --> 00:28:37,400 about that, I think by journalists on the plane on the 547 00:28:37,400 --> 00:28:39,920 way home, said they do want to stop problems and they've been 548 00:28:39,920 --> 00:28:42,960 open about it. And we gave them approval for a 549 00:28:42,960 --> 00:28:46,760 period of time. Do you think, I mean, just 550 00:28:46,760 --> 00:28:50,000 comparing it to like previous situations that you've been in, 551 00:28:50,360 --> 00:28:55,240 Is there just a complete lack of structure ready to, I mean, not 552 00:28:55,240 --> 00:28:58,240 that there's been great examples in the past either, but you 553 00:28:58,240 --> 00:29:00,440 know, ready to actually make this happen. 554 00:29:00,840 --> 00:29:04,400 There's definitely a lack of structure, and that's partly 555 00:29:04,400 --> 00:29:07,840 because the Palestinians have been so divided for so long. 556 00:29:07,840 --> 00:29:10,440 And I think there's there's an excellent article that I'd love 557 00:29:10,440 --> 00:29:15,080 to recommend to your lead to your readers in in The New 558 00:29:15,080 --> 00:29:18,680 Yorker that just came out by a Palestinian journalist called 559 00:29:18,680 --> 00:29:21,760 Muhammad Mihawish. And it talks about the next 560 00:29:21,760 --> 00:29:25,280 steps and that political process that needs to happen inside of 561 00:29:25,280 --> 00:29:29,120 Gaza right now. And it really parses through the 562 00:29:29,120 --> 00:29:32,680 different rivalries between Palestinian factions and 563 00:29:32,680 --> 00:29:37,920 parties. It talks about the mistakes that 564 00:29:37,920 --> 00:29:42,280 have been made since Oslo, since the Oslo peace agreement, and 565 00:29:42,280 --> 00:29:44,840 why that was bad for Palestinian unity. 566 00:29:45,320 --> 00:29:48,760 So it's a really fascinating piece that I would recommend to 567 00:29:48,760 --> 00:29:51,080 anyone. And it just goes into how 568 00:29:51,080 --> 00:29:55,560 complicated it's going to be to unify all of these different 569 00:29:55,560 --> 00:30:00,080 factions and parties under one umbrella that will be able able 570 00:30:00,080 --> 00:30:02,720 to govern Gaza. But that's only one part of it, 571 00:30:02,720 --> 00:30:06,360 that internal part. The other part is how 572 00:30:06,680 --> 00:30:11,680 controlling external forces are going to be and how much they 573 00:30:11,680 --> 00:30:16,000 will actually allow Palestinians to try to do that hard work 574 00:30:16,000 --> 00:30:20,080 internally and try to come up with a governing structure and 575 00:30:20,520 --> 00:30:23,360 reconciliation and all those things that they have to do. 576 00:30:23,720 --> 00:30:28,120 Right now. We see some sort of disturbing 577 00:30:28,120 --> 00:30:34,600 signs that this may end up looking like a Western, you 578 00:30:34,600 --> 00:30:38,520 know, umbrella dictating to Palestinians what they can do, 579 00:30:38,520 --> 00:30:41,720 what they can't do, who will be appointed, who cannot be 580 00:30:41,720 --> 00:30:43,840 appointed. You have this Board of peace 581 00:30:44,120 --> 00:30:46,920 that's supposedly going to oversee this Palestinian 582 00:30:46,920 --> 00:30:50,320 technocratic government, which is going to be headed by Donald 583 00:30:50,320 --> 00:30:53,120 Trump, nominally, I'm sure he, I mean, he's not obviously going 584 00:30:53,120 --> 00:30:54,600 to be involved in the day-to-day. 585 00:30:54,920 --> 00:30:58,160 But they're talking about bringing in Tony Blair, which is 586 00:30:58,160 --> 00:31:04,680 hugely distressing for a lot of Palestinians and a lot of Arabs 587 00:31:04,680 --> 00:31:07,160 in general. Given Tony Blair's involvement 588 00:31:07,160 --> 00:31:11,520 in the Iraq war, his history in the region, this sense that he 589 00:31:11,520 --> 00:31:16,360 doesn't really understand the needs of the Palestinians and 590 00:31:16,360 --> 00:31:18,400 won't be advocating for them either. 591 00:31:18,400 --> 00:31:23,200 That this is just going to be some kind of really tightly 592 00:31:23,200 --> 00:31:30,920 managed operation to try to exert as much value and benefit 593 00:31:31,000 --> 00:31:35,320 that they can out of Palestinian reconstruction and and all other 594 00:31:35,320 --> 00:31:39,960 kinds of stuff like that. And even The Who is going to be 595 00:31:39,960 --> 00:31:41,840 part of the technocratic government. 596 00:31:42,200 --> 00:31:45,480 There are worries that those names are not going to be names 597 00:31:45,480 --> 00:31:48,640 that have any credibility inside of Palestine that that just 598 00:31:48,640 --> 00:31:52,200 have, you know, good contacts in the West basically. 599 00:31:52,640 --> 00:31:56,200 And of course all of those things play out in Iraq before 600 00:31:56,640 --> 00:32:00,520 after the war and other post conflict environments in in the 601 00:32:00,600 --> 00:32:03,920 in in the Arab world and and Africa and other places. 602 00:32:04,440 --> 00:32:07,760 But also under Who's mandate? So, for instance, the idea that 603 00:32:07,760 --> 00:32:13,160 you send Turkish or Qatari or Saudi peacekeepers into Gaza 604 00:32:13,440 --> 00:32:16,640 when you've got Hamas reluctant to disarm, when you've got the 605 00:32:16,640 --> 00:32:20,520 IDF, you know, constantly in the wings and they come across some 606 00:32:20,520 --> 00:32:23,000 very difficult decisions and they have to decide whether to, 607 00:32:23,040 --> 00:32:26,280 you know, shoot someone or not. On whose authority will they do 608 00:32:26,280 --> 00:32:28,240 that? Will that be UN authority? 609 00:32:28,480 --> 00:32:31,760 I mean, I think Trump has suggested that CENTCOM, you 610 00:32:31,760 --> 00:32:34,040 know, the American military structure in the Middle East 611 00:32:34,040 --> 00:32:37,720 would be in charge, which would be troubling for many people. 612 00:32:37,760 --> 00:32:41,000 I mean, who are the honest brokers in this process, not 613 00:32:41,000 --> 00:32:43,960 just militarily but also politically, and who do you 614 00:32:43,960 --> 00:32:45,640 speak to on the Palestinian side? 615 00:32:45,800 --> 00:32:48,360 Yeah, those were all such good questions, Matt. 616 00:32:48,760 --> 00:32:54,040 I none of these questions were fully discussed and let alone 617 00:32:54,040 --> 00:32:56,560 answered when this peace agreement was being signed. 618 00:32:56,560 --> 00:33:00,320 I mean, we saw the declaration from Cairo several months ago 619 00:33:00,320 --> 00:33:03,840 where all the Arab and and Muslim states got together and 620 00:33:03,840 --> 00:33:08,880 issued the Cairo plan for what a post war Gaza would look like. 621 00:33:08,880 --> 00:33:10,360 And it talked about all these things. 622 00:33:10,360 --> 00:33:13,200 A lot of the elements of that plan ended up in Trump's plan, 623 00:33:13,200 --> 00:33:17,880 by the way, the technocratic government dealing with issues 624 00:33:17,880 --> 00:33:20,720 of Hamas's arms, all kinds of things. 625 00:33:20,720 --> 00:33:25,280 And those are the details that are going to be hammered out 626 00:33:25,280 --> 00:33:27,520 right now. I will tell you one thing, that 627 00:33:27,520 --> 00:33:30,960 Hamas, just like there's never been this much pressure on the 628 00:33:30,960 --> 00:33:34,560 Israelis before by the Americans, Hamas has also not 629 00:33:34,560 --> 00:33:36,480 been under this kind of pressure before. 630 00:33:36,480 --> 00:33:40,960 As it is right now. Everyone from Turkey to Egypt to 631 00:33:40,960 --> 00:33:46,880 Qatar, they are all there making sure that this deal goes the way 632 00:33:46,880 --> 00:33:50,160 it is supposed to go and that those questions are answered in 633 00:33:50,160 --> 00:33:53,200 a way that doesn't bring us back to conflict. 634 00:33:53,600 --> 00:33:57,320 The the players that were involved in this, you had the 635 00:33:57,320 --> 00:34:00,720 top intelligence chiefs in Turkey and Egypt. 636 00:34:00,960 --> 00:34:03,960 Those are traditionally the people who've had the closest 637 00:34:03,960 --> 00:34:07,600 ties with Hamas over the years and had the closest 638 00:34:07,600 --> 00:34:10,400 relationships with them and therefore the most leverage. 639 00:34:10,719 --> 00:34:14,719 And so I would say that despite all my misgivings and my 640 00:34:14,719 --> 00:34:19,159 concerns about the way forward, this is one of the best chances 641 00:34:19,159 --> 00:34:23,600 that we've seen in a long, long time simply because of who's 642 00:34:23,600 --> 00:34:27,480 involved, how closely involved they are and what leverage they 643 00:34:27,480 --> 00:34:31,719 have over the two parties. But but the ultimate goal in 644 00:34:31,719 --> 00:34:36,280 that plan is vaguely set out, but it is towards Palestinian 645 00:34:36,280 --> 00:34:37,840 statehood. It's what Palestinians 646 00:34:37,840 --> 00:34:41,600 ultimately want. And having listened to hours and 647 00:34:41,600 --> 00:34:44,400 hours and hours now of Donald Trump talking about this, 648 00:34:44,400 --> 00:34:47,600 because he talks about it at lot at length, he was doing it again 649 00:34:47,600 --> 00:34:51,239 yesterday when he was meeting the Argentinian president, 650 00:34:51,520 --> 00:34:53,080 talking about the eight wars he's ended. 651 00:34:53,080 --> 00:34:56,400 Of course, it is really interesting to listen to him. 652 00:34:56,600 --> 00:34:57,440 It's gone up. Yeah. 653 00:34:57,880 --> 00:35:00,720 Because, you know, sometimes there's a very measured 654 00:35:00,720 --> 00:35:02,120 response. You know, you mentioned Tony 655 00:35:02,120 --> 00:35:03,640 Blair. I thought it was really 656 00:35:03,640 --> 00:35:07,160 interesting how he basically said, yeah, I do need to check 657 00:35:07,160 --> 00:35:08,680 that everyone's OK with Tony Blair. 658 00:35:08,680 --> 00:35:11,040 And it obviously it had fed through to him that there might 659 00:35:11,040 --> 00:35:13,440 be some misgivings about Tony Blair in the Middle East, 660 00:35:13,440 --> 00:35:15,560 although, of course, Blair was still there. 661 00:35:15,760 --> 00:35:19,320 But on the other hand, we get like the bombastic address to 662 00:35:19,320 --> 00:35:23,480 the Knesset where he's, you know, trumpeting, moving the US 663 00:35:23,520 --> 00:35:28,000 Embassy to Jerusalem, trumpeting giving, you know, recognizing 664 00:35:28,000 --> 00:35:30,880 Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights and so on. 665 00:35:31,720 --> 00:35:35,080 And the thing that I've watched is that when he's asked about 666 00:35:35,080 --> 00:35:37,480 statehood, Palestinian statehood, despite the fact that 667 00:35:37,480 --> 00:35:42,840 it's there written into the plan, he vaguely with a lot of 668 00:35:42,840 --> 00:35:44,880 caveats. He he said, someone said to him, 669 00:35:44,880 --> 00:35:46,320 what's your view on A2 state solution? 670 00:35:46,320 --> 00:35:50,280 He said, I don't have a view. I mean, he is not personally 671 00:35:50,440 --> 00:35:53,960 engaged as you go further through this plan is the big 672 00:35:53,960 --> 00:35:57,800 concern because he doesn't care. And we've all watched what 673 00:35:57,800 --> 00:35:59,800 Benjamin Netanyahu has to say about this. 674 00:35:59,800 --> 00:36:02,800 I mean, you know, Matt and I, and I'm sure you yourself sat 675 00:36:02,800 --> 00:36:05,360 through his UN General Assembly speech. 676 00:36:05,360 --> 00:36:09,120 That's not a guy who's ready to make a deal that will result in 677 00:36:09,120 --> 00:36:11,800 Palestinian statehood. Well, he said very clearly there 678 00:36:11,800 --> 00:36:13,320 will never be a Palestinian state. 679 00:36:13,320 --> 00:36:16,400 He said it in English, he said it in Hebrew, he said it to 680 00:36:16,400 --> 00:36:19,800 whoever wants to listen. That is completely counter to, 681 00:36:19,800 --> 00:36:23,480 however vague the language might be, a .19 of the 20 points. 682 00:36:23,680 --> 00:36:28,560 Yeah, let me because those those are all so such interesting 683 00:36:28,560 --> 00:36:33,040 points because, you know, they really tell us about where we're 684 00:36:33,040 --> 00:36:36,360 going and what needs to be done and, and who needs to be putting 685 00:36:36,360 --> 00:36:40,400 pressure and speaking to Trump about these issues. 686 00:36:40,920 --> 00:36:44,080 The the thing we have to realize about Trump, and this is 687 00:36:44,080 --> 00:36:48,440 something that his former national security advisor, 688 00:36:48,760 --> 00:36:53,000 General HR McMaster wrote about in his book when he wrote about 689 00:36:53,000 --> 00:36:56,520 serving as Trump's first national security advisor, he 690 00:36:56,520 --> 00:37:01,480 said that Trump is really influenced by whoever the last 691 00:37:01,480 --> 00:37:05,600 person in the room is. So whenever his cabinet members, 692 00:37:05,680 --> 00:37:09,000 including HR McMaster, when he was there with John Bolton, not 693 00:37:09,000 --> 00:37:14,520 John Bolton, sorry, with other, with General Mattis and at the, 694 00:37:14,840 --> 00:37:18,320 at the Defense Department at the time, Rex Tillerson at the State 695 00:37:18,320 --> 00:37:22,800 Department that he would always try to be the last person to 696 00:37:22,800 --> 00:37:25,760 leave the room. Because he, he knew that 697 00:37:25,760 --> 00:37:29,160 whatever Trump heard last would be the thing that stuck in his 698 00:37:29,160 --> 00:37:31,240 mind. Even if he'd just been in like a 699 00:37:31,240 --> 00:37:34,160 2 hour meeting. The the only thing he would come 700 00:37:34,160 --> 00:37:39,200 out with was what he heard last. So, so that that's one thing. 701 00:37:39,200 --> 00:37:43,440 And then the other thing is that at his core, Trump is someone 702 00:37:43,440 --> 00:37:47,000 who wants to be liked. Like genuinely liked. 703 00:37:47,000 --> 00:37:49,800 Not just feared or admired, but liked. 704 00:37:50,320 --> 00:37:53,080 And so whenever he goes and does a speech like the one he did in 705 00:37:53,080 --> 00:37:55,280 the Knesset, he would say the same thing. 706 00:37:55,280 --> 00:37:57,760 If he went and did a speech in Saudi Arabia or Egypt or 707 00:37:57,760 --> 00:38:01,480 whatever, he just wants the crowd to think he is the best 708 00:38:01,480 --> 00:38:04,560 thing ever. So I would take that, you know, 709 00:38:04,800 --> 00:38:07,560 pomp and circumstance, if you will, with a grain of salt. 710 00:38:07,880 --> 00:38:11,280 What really matters is something that you mentioned Anushka 711 00:38:11,280 --> 00:38:16,800 earlier, which is how sorry, I think it was you, Matt, The how 712 00:38:16,800 --> 00:38:21,760 much he likes, genuinely likes the Gulf and the Gulf leaders. 713 00:38:21,760 --> 00:38:25,920 He has admiration for them. He admires their wealth. 714 00:38:25,920 --> 00:38:28,960 He admires what they've done in their countries and what they've 715 00:38:28,960 --> 00:38:32,240 built it. Very And the interior design, he 716 00:38:32,360 --> 00:38:35,120 got all that marble and gold. He loves that marble and. 717 00:38:35,120 --> 00:38:39,360 Gold, he gets a lot of inspiration from that and so he 718 00:38:39,360 --> 00:38:42,120 listens. And I think that Anoushka, what 719 00:38:42,120 --> 00:38:46,440 you were mentioning about these two state solutions language in 720 00:38:46,440 --> 00:38:52,080 the 20 in the 20 point plan, it is very, very, very vague. 721 00:38:52,080 --> 00:38:55,880 It doesn't even say that Palestinians have a right to 722 00:38:55,880 --> 00:38:57,520 self determination and statehood. 723 00:38:57,520 --> 00:39:02,520 It says if you do everything right, it may lead to a path 724 00:39:02,520 --> 00:39:05,480 towards self determination and statehood because we know that's 725 00:39:05,480 --> 00:39:10,240 what you want the Palestinians. It's not enshrined as it is your 726 00:39:10,240 --> 00:39:15,720 right so, but even even that vague language was placed in 727 00:39:15,720 --> 00:39:20,240 there because of conversations that he had with Arabs in the 728 00:39:20,240 --> 00:39:23,880 region and he listened to them. And it's worth saying that when 729 00:39:24,040 --> 00:39:27,520 you speak to representatives of those Arab countries, they are 730 00:39:27,520 --> 00:39:30,720 clear that if he wants his normalization between them and 731 00:39:30,720 --> 00:39:33,520 Israel, their only hope, his only hope of getting there, 732 00:39:33,520 --> 00:39:38,040 including for Saudi Arabia, is to make sure that there is a 733 00:39:38,040 --> 00:39:40,080 clear path to that. I mean, I think his relationship 734 00:39:40,080 --> 00:39:43,360 with the Qataris is totally fascinating, but also something 735 00:39:43,360 --> 00:39:46,520 that is getting a bit of backlash here in the US Ever 736 00:39:46,520 --> 00:39:49,000 since they announced this idea of joint training with the 737 00:39:49,000 --> 00:39:51,680 Qataris in Idaho. I mean, there has been a bit of 738 00:39:51,680 --> 00:39:54,280 a MAGA backlash on that. I want to get to that, but I I 739 00:39:54,280 --> 00:39:57,920 want to make sure I finish just the point about the two, the two 740 00:39:57,920 --> 00:40:00,400 state solution and statehood and where this is eventually 741 00:40:00,400 --> 00:40:03,000 supposed to end up. Because if we look at the 742 00:40:03,000 --> 00:40:09,640 Israeli side, there is a. A real sort of trauma, you know, 743 00:40:09,640 --> 00:40:16,160 trauma focused response to any conversations about a two state 744 00:40:16,160 --> 00:40:18,080 solution. Right now, when I talk to my 745 00:40:18,080 --> 00:40:24,800 Israeli friends or, or, or Israelis that I interview, they 746 00:40:24,800 --> 00:40:29,240 make it clear that October 7th was a type of trauma that will 747 00:40:29,240 --> 00:40:31,920 be difficult, if not impossible to recover from. 748 00:40:32,360 --> 00:40:36,640 And what that did to them in terms of trust with the 749 00:40:36,640 --> 00:40:39,160 Palestinians. And I think trust is going to be 750 00:40:39,160 --> 00:40:42,120 one of the things that will be most difficult to restore, but 751 00:40:42,120 --> 00:40:47,120 most important because now you have Israeli leadership, not 752 00:40:47,120 --> 00:40:50,000 just current leadership, but potential future leadership as 753 00:40:50,000 --> 00:40:51,440 well. I'm talking about all of the 754 00:40:51,440 --> 00:40:56,880 opposition figures, Naftali Bennett, Lieberman, Lapid Golan. 755 00:40:57,320 --> 00:40:59,760 Nobody's talking about a Palestinian state. 756 00:41:00,200 --> 00:41:03,760 Some of it is ideological, like with Netanyahu, who just doesn't 757 00:41:03,760 --> 00:41:06,680 believe that there should ever be a Palestinian state on 758 00:41:06,680 --> 00:41:09,760 ideology. And some of it is just, well, 759 00:41:09,880 --> 00:41:12,240 that's just that's just going to be a threat to us. 760 00:41:12,240 --> 00:41:13,720 Look at what happened in October 2nd. 761 00:41:13,720 --> 00:41:17,320 Some of it is security based, but that will be one of the most 762 00:41:17,320 --> 00:41:20,520 difficult things in any conflict resolution process moving 763 00:41:20,520 --> 00:41:22,840 forward is to try to restore that trust. 764 00:41:23,160 --> 00:41:25,400 Yes, I think you're so right. I mean, not when I was in Israel 765 00:41:25,400 --> 00:41:29,280 last, you know, few months ago. And I spoke to my Israeli 766 00:41:29,280 --> 00:41:31,240 friends who I still have from the days when I lived there in 767 00:41:31,240 --> 00:41:34,080 1989. They were all, you know, 768 00:41:34,080 --> 00:41:35,400 peaceniks, as we used to call them. 769 00:41:35,400 --> 00:41:38,200 They were all very fervent about a two state solution. 770 00:41:38,200 --> 00:41:41,000 They've all rather like your friends have said, no, that's 771 00:41:41,000 --> 00:41:43,360 not going to happen. We can't ever imagine that. 772 00:41:43,360 --> 00:41:47,320 We don't trust the Palestinians. But unless you rebuild that 773 00:41:47,320 --> 00:41:50,280 trust, you know, you just don't get, you're not going to get 774 00:41:50,280 --> 00:41:53,320 some kind of, you know, living side by side. 775 00:41:53,320 --> 00:41:57,960 I just wonder, Jasmine, to what extent the the diminution or the 776 00:41:57,960 --> 00:42:02,800 weakening of Iran has an impact of the future of what happens in 777 00:42:02,800 --> 00:42:06,080 Gaza, because of course, Iran was supposedly Hamas's big 778 00:42:06,200 --> 00:42:07,960 backer. Yes and no. 779 00:42:07,960 --> 00:42:14,640 It was actually less of a of a factor than well, there were 780 00:42:14,680 --> 00:42:17,440 several different ways of supporting Hamas. 1 was through 781 00:42:17,440 --> 00:42:21,600 arms, 1 was through funds. We can't forget also that Prime 782 00:42:21,600 --> 00:42:26,640 Minister Netanyahu had greenlit and in fact asked the Qataris to 783 00:42:26,640 --> 00:42:30,440 continue sending money to Hamas because of his divide and 784 00:42:30,440 --> 00:42:33,480 conquer policy towards the Palestinians. 785 00:42:33,480 --> 00:42:38,160 Netanyahu always wanted to weaken the PA in the West Bank 786 00:42:38,160 --> 00:42:41,920 and strengthen Hamas in Gaza so that the Palestinians would 787 00:42:41,920 --> 00:42:46,360 continue to be divided and wouldn't pose a threat to Israel 788 00:42:46,360 --> 00:42:50,360 by actually, you know, creating a unified by government that 789 00:42:50,360 --> 00:42:53,760 could then request things like statehood from the international 790 00:42:53,760 --> 00:42:57,280 community and so on. So now that that funding stream 791 00:42:57,520 --> 00:43:02,720 has been cut, now that you have Egypt and other countries 792 00:43:02,960 --> 00:43:07,640 willing to crack down on things like smuggling through tunnels, 793 00:43:08,640 --> 00:43:13,760 you will, it will be very, very difficult for Hamas to rearm and 794 00:43:13,760 --> 00:43:16,520 pose the kind of threat that it did to Israel. 795 00:43:17,480 --> 00:43:21,120 Also, by virtue of the fact that it's entire leadership structure 796 00:43:21,120 --> 00:43:27,400 mostly has been decimated, either assassinated or yeah, 797 00:43:27,400 --> 00:43:32,920 assassinated. Basically, I think the three 798 00:43:32,920 --> 00:43:38,520 people who were really in charge of masterminding and carrying 799 00:43:38,520 --> 00:43:43,080 out October 7th, including Yeh Hassan what of course have all 800 00:43:43,080 --> 00:43:47,160 been killed. And Hamas is now walking around 801 00:43:47,160 --> 00:43:50,000 in Gaza as an organization without any structure or 802 00:43:50,000 --> 00:43:54,640 leadership and with a vast amount of their capabilities 803 00:43:54,640 --> 00:43:57,560 having been destroyed. So it goes back to something we 804 00:43:57,560 --> 00:44:00,680 were talking about earlier, which is what are they going to 805 00:44:00,680 --> 00:44:03,560 be doing right now? They're not going to be focused 806 00:44:03,560 --> 00:44:06,600 on Israel much. The danger they pose now is to 807 00:44:06,880 --> 00:44:10,480 Palestinians in Gaza. So how does this not end up as a 808 00:44:10,480 --> 00:44:13,000 civil war inside Gaza? Exactly right. 809 00:44:13,000 --> 00:44:16,840 I mean, that's, you know, I, I referenced Iraq, post war Iraq 810 00:44:16,840 --> 00:44:22,480 and, and the the, the decades of challenges that they had after 811 00:44:22,480 --> 00:44:26,680 the US invasion, the US and I think the West in general. 812 00:44:26,680 --> 00:44:30,560 And this is a point that I saw, you know, really throughout my 813 00:44:30,560 --> 00:44:37,920 years in government is there is a tendency to pick favorites in 814 00:44:37,920 --> 00:44:41,640 the Middle East, support them and arm them and then let them 815 00:44:41,640 --> 00:44:45,040 kind of fight it out there. There hasn't, you know, there 816 00:44:45,040 --> 00:44:52,760 hasn't generally been a, a sustained energy and excuse me, 817 00:44:52,760 --> 00:44:56,720 attention and effort towards helping any of these post 818 00:44:56,720 --> 00:45:01,760 conflict states in the region build, build up in a way that 819 00:45:01,760 --> 00:45:06,280 was sustainable and in a way that was credible and, and 820 00:45:06,280 --> 00:45:09,400 bottom up. There's always interference from 821 00:45:09,400 --> 00:45:12,720 the outside. There are always countries, 822 00:45:12,720 --> 00:45:17,480 there are always opinions that say, well, we like these people, 823 00:45:17,480 --> 00:45:19,880 we don't like these people. So we're going to, you know, 824 00:45:19,880 --> 00:45:23,400 give these people a chance. And if they want to go against 825 00:45:23,400 --> 00:45:26,000 their own people, we're just going to let that happen. 826 00:45:26,400 --> 00:45:27,840 And you saw a little bit of that. 827 00:45:27,840 --> 00:45:31,920 And what Trump was saying about Hamas going after other factions 828 00:45:31,920 --> 00:45:34,920 and rivals in Gaza, it's like, let them fight it out, which is 829 00:45:34,920 --> 00:45:36,880 of course, extremely destabilizing. 830 00:45:37,280 --> 00:45:39,800 Jasmine, it's been so interesting having you. 831 00:45:39,800 --> 00:45:42,120 We're not going to keep you any longer, but really, really 832 00:45:42,120 --> 00:45:44,640 appreciate your time and totally fascinating to hear. 833 00:45:44,640 --> 00:45:46,880 Thanks so much, it's a great pleasure to be with. 834 00:45:46,880 --> 00:45:50,440 You thanks very much. That's all we have time for on 835 00:45:50,440 --> 00:45:53,520 Trump World Today. Next week, we will delve a bit 836 00:45:53,520 --> 00:45:56,920 more into what Donald Trump is doing pretty controversially 837 00:45:57,040 --> 00:46:00,400 here in the USI will see you next Wednesday. 838 00:46:01,080 --> 00:46:02,360 Absolutely. And and me too. 839 00:46:02,360 --> 00:46:04,520 I'm not going on any more holidays, I promise you, ever 840 00:46:04,520 --> 00:46:07,280 again. But yeah, I think it's important 841 00:46:07,280 --> 00:46:09,800 to have, you know, Trump on the world stage has done one thing. 842 00:46:09,800 --> 00:46:13,560 He's had his best week ever. Trump on the domestic stage, an 843 00:46:13,560 --> 00:46:16,240 entirely different story and a pretty controversial on which we 844 00:46:16,240 --> 00:46:19,440 cannot keep our eyes off. So we'll see you next week. 845 00:46:19,440 --> 00:46:21,600 That's it from Trump World, from Anoushka and me. 846 00:46:21,680 --> 00:46:22,400 Thanks very much.