1 00:00:00,040 --> 00:00:03,320 There's a massacre, as far as we can tell, even with an Internet 2 00:00:03,320 --> 00:00:07,040 blackout being perpetrated against kids who were at 3 00:00:07,040 --> 00:00:10,320 university, who were, you know, on TikTok until a few weeks ago, 4 00:00:10,640 --> 00:00:12,320 you know, who were dreaming of a better future. 5 00:00:12,320 --> 00:00:15,360 I think Donald Trump, who was quite impulsive, you know, and, 6 00:00:15,400 --> 00:00:18,760 and can be moved by these reports of of outrageous 7 00:00:18,760 --> 00:00:22,680 massacre on the streets, might feel that something, anything 8 00:00:23,040 --> 00:00:30,400 has to come from the skies. Hello and welcome to Trump 9 00:00:30,400 --> 00:00:31,760 World. I'm Matt Fry in London. 10 00:00:31,800 --> 00:00:36,880 And I'm Anushka Rastana in Washington, DC Over the past 11 00:00:36,880 --> 00:00:40,400 week, Trump has been reminding us he wants the whole of the 12 00:00:40,400 --> 00:00:43,880 world or a piece of the whole of the world, hasn't he, Matt? 13 00:00:43,880 --> 00:00:48,320 I found it kind of amazing when he posted on True Social an 14 00:00:48,320 --> 00:00:51,320 image of his Wikipedia page, which someone had edited to say 15 00:00:51,600 --> 00:00:55,960 president of Venezuela. And he actually put that out on 16 00:00:55,960 --> 00:00:58,600 social media. But obviously the issue we're 17 00:00:58,600 --> 00:01:01,360 talking about today is Iran. It is indeed. 18 00:01:01,360 --> 00:01:07,000 A lot later, we're going to talk to Joe Biden's Iran envoy to try 19 00:01:07,000 --> 00:01:10,680 and understand more about those conversations happening in the 20 00:01:10,680 --> 00:01:12,840 White House. So we don't really know what's 21 00:01:12,840 --> 00:01:15,960 going on inside Iran, but the little snippets that have 22 00:01:16,680 --> 00:01:19,880 appeared and I, I have a lot of Iranian friends in London and 23 00:01:19,880 --> 00:01:23,800 outside in the US who are in contact very sporadically with 24 00:01:23,800 --> 00:01:26,880 their relatives and friends. The picture inside Iran is 25 00:01:27,280 --> 00:01:31,280 utterly horrific. It is a massacre perpetrated by 26 00:01:31,280 --> 00:01:35,040 the regime against mainly unarmed civilians, some of whom 27 00:01:35,040 --> 00:01:37,840 have been fighting back, some of whom have killed policemen and 28 00:01:38,000 --> 00:01:40,760 members of the militia, some of whom have burnt mosques and 29 00:01:40,760 --> 00:01:42,000 police cars. Yes, yes, yes. 30 00:01:42,000 --> 00:01:46,160 But essentially this is this is a regime fighting for its own 31 00:01:46,160 --> 00:01:49,280 survival by unleashing hell on its own citizens. 32 00:01:50,080 --> 00:01:52,600 Yeah, I mean, absolutely horrific. 33 00:01:52,600 --> 00:01:54,200 The world is looking on in horror. 34 00:01:54,200 --> 00:01:59,000 And here in the US, Donald Trump is making quite clear the there 35 00:01:59,000 --> 00:02:01,640 may be some sort of intervention. 36 00:02:01,640 --> 00:02:05,720 He has written on Truth Social. Help is on its way, although 37 00:02:05,720 --> 00:02:09,919 when he was asked what help might be, he told someone to 38 00:02:09,919 --> 00:02:12,360 figure it out themselves. We know that his national 39 00:02:12,360 --> 00:02:18,160 security team has been meeting. We don't know quite what's going 40 00:02:18,200 --> 00:02:22,400 on in his head, we never do. But he did in an interview with 41 00:02:22,400 --> 00:02:27,440 CBS, talk a little bit about his motivations, a strong action. 42 00:02:27,440 --> 00:02:29,320 You're talking about what's the end game. 43 00:02:29,720 --> 00:02:32,080 The end game is to win. I like winning. 44 00:02:32,160 --> 00:02:35,040 How do you define that in Iran? Well, let's define it in 45 00:02:35,040 --> 00:02:37,280 Venezuela. Let's define it with Al 46 00:02:37,280 --> 00:02:38,840 Baghdadi. He was wiped out. 47 00:02:39,200 --> 00:02:43,960 Let's define it with Salamani. So, so we know he wants to look 48 00:02:43,960 --> 00:02:48,120 like he's winning. But Matt, this could be really 49 00:02:48,120 --> 00:02:51,480 consequential, right? And what America is about to do 50 00:02:51,680 --> 00:02:55,320 is something that a lot of people are presumably discussing 51 00:02:55,320 --> 00:02:58,440 inside Iran. And a lot of the Iranian people 52 00:02:58,440 --> 00:03:00,360 you've been speaking to, what are they telling you? 53 00:03:00,360 --> 00:03:02,320 What do they want to see from America? 54 00:03:03,040 --> 00:03:06,720 Well, one thing that's really struck me in Oska is that, you 55 00:03:06,720 --> 00:03:10,840 know, for the first time ever, really, you have a plurality of 56 00:03:10,840 --> 00:03:12,280 the Iranians that I've been speaking to. 57 00:03:12,280 --> 00:03:14,600 And of course, these are almost by by their very nature, 58 00:03:14,920 --> 00:03:18,920 oppositional figures who are saying to Donald Trump, bring it 59 00:03:18,920 --> 00:03:21,440 on, you know, unleash those missiles. 60 00:03:21,760 --> 00:03:24,320 And the first time I heard that actually was many years ago 61 00:03:24,320 --> 00:03:27,560 after 911. I was, I was in Iran because we 62 00:03:27,560 --> 00:03:30,680 were expecting Iran to be hit by the US and it ended up being 63 00:03:30,680 --> 00:03:36,480 Iraq and, and, and our government Minder appointed by 64 00:03:36,480 --> 00:03:39,320 the Ministry of Information whispered into my ear during 65 00:03:39,320 --> 00:03:43,320 Friday prayers in Tehran. When the bombers come from the 66 00:03:43,320 --> 00:03:46,760 United States to Iraq, could they please unleash their load 67 00:03:47,000 --> 00:03:48,480 over Tehran? First? 68 00:03:49,040 --> 00:03:50,960 I thought that was an extraordinary thing to say. 69 00:03:50,960 --> 00:03:53,880 And it was a sort of little glimmer of fearlessness from 70 00:03:53,880 --> 00:03:55,120 someone who worked for the government. 71 00:03:55,840 --> 00:03:59,040 Now you're getting that on a massive scale across the 72 00:03:59,040 --> 00:04:03,560 country, translated into the coinage of of sheer rage and 73 00:04:03,680 --> 00:04:07,600 outrage by the fact that the regime, which has proven to be 74 00:04:08,080 --> 00:04:13,400 not just incompetent and brutal, but also corrupt over time, is 75 00:04:13,400 --> 00:04:15,800 saying to an to a population that is really quite well 76 00:04:15,800 --> 00:04:17,440 educated. And Iranians have a high level 77 00:04:17,440 --> 00:04:19,200 of education. They pride themselves on that. 78 00:04:19,560 --> 00:04:22,800 You know, there were all these images from Tehran on social 79 00:04:22,800 --> 00:04:25,280 media just a few weeks ago where, you know, there were kind 80 00:04:25,280 --> 00:04:28,320 of bands playing in the streets. And, you know, women in Tehran 81 00:04:28,440 --> 00:04:31,520 have taken off the hijab, not because they've been officially 82 00:04:31,520 --> 00:04:34,200 allowed to do so, but just because they've taken things 83 00:04:34,200 --> 00:04:36,920 into their own hands. And then along comes this very 84 00:04:36,920 --> 00:04:39,680 dramatic devaluation of the currency. 85 00:04:40,240 --> 00:04:42,560 And for the first time in years, and this is important to 86 00:04:42,560 --> 00:04:47,640 understand, the bizarre class. So the it's by bizarre, you're 87 00:04:47,640 --> 00:04:49,840 not doing it justice. This is the economic kind of 88 00:04:50,000 --> 00:04:53,200 beating heart of Tehran and other big cities. 89 00:04:53,960 --> 00:04:56,960 These are the people who, when they sided with the ayatollahs 90 00:04:56,960 --> 00:05:00,040 in 1979, made the revolution happen. 91 00:05:00,320 --> 00:05:03,880 This time round, they're so fed up with this incompetent and 92 00:05:03,880 --> 00:05:07,720 corrupt regime and essentially have said to the regime, this 93 00:05:07,720 --> 00:05:09,480 doesn't work. Now, what does the government 94 00:05:09,480 --> 00:05:10,840 do? They fire the head of the 95 00:05:10,840 --> 00:05:13,640 central bank. They then give something like 96 00:05:13,640 --> 00:05:17,280 $7.00 a month to each household as a kind of pay off, which will 97 00:05:17,280 --> 00:05:20,280 buy you, you know, a bottle of oil if you're lucky. 98 00:05:20,640 --> 00:05:23,160 And remember, the inflation is so rampant that if you go into 99 00:05:23,160 --> 00:05:26,360 the bazaar, into the market in Tehran, which is huge, and you 100 00:05:26,360 --> 00:05:28,240 end up, you know, you buy a loaf of bread. 101 00:05:28,720 --> 00:05:30,840 You know, whereas you go into the bazaar and then an hour 102 00:05:30,840 --> 00:05:32,880 later as you're shopping, you buy the same loaf of bread 103 00:05:32,880 --> 00:05:34,720 again. It's going to be more expensive. 104 00:05:35,120 --> 00:05:37,640 And I think there's combinations of things, you know, 105 00:05:37,960 --> 00:05:41,960 incompetence, brutality, you know, and, you know, and lack of 106 00:05:41,960 --> 00:05:44,040 freedom and hardship and hardship. 107 00:05:44,480 --> 00:05:46,560 I think it made people's cup boil over. 108 00:05:46,560 --> 00:05:49,160 And essentially when you add to that, you know, gunning them 109 00:05:49,160 --> 00:05:52,320 down on the streets has created a a pretty fearless population. 110 00:05:52,320 --> 00:05:55,200 So even if they don't bring the regime now, now, even if Trump 111 00:05:55,200 --> 00:05:58,520 doesn't intervene in any meaningful way, no regime can 112 00:05:58,520 --> 00:06:01,840 survive purely by coercion. There has to be a degree of 113 00:06:01,840 --> 00:06:03,280 consent. And you're only getting that 114 00:06:03,280 --> 00:06:05,960 from people who are still paid by the government or, you know, 115 00:06:05,960 --> 00:06:09,080 small pockets of loyal support in bits of the countryside. 116 00:06:09,440 --> 00:06:12,160 Although we've seen protests before that haven't brought down 117 00:06:12,160 --> 00:06:15,080 the regime and that's what people are scared about. 118 00:06:15,280 --> 00:06:17,120 This is different. I think this is this is bigger. 119 00:06:17,120 --> 00:06:20,120 It's on a bigger scale. And, and I think maybe in 120 00:06:20,160 --> 00:06:23,680 getting back to Donald Trump, you know, he is, look, there are 121 00:06:23,680 --> 00:06:26,800 many things that motivate him. And, you know, whether it's oil 122 00:06:26,800 --> 00:06:30,200 or power projection or whatever, I think for them, they must be 123 00:06:30,200 --> 00:06:34,440 cautious that having had a very smooth operation in Venezuela, 124 00:06:34,960 --> 00:06:36,960 where there was really very little loss of life. 125 00:06:36,960 --> 00:06:38,840 And although you could argue that, you know, there wasn't 126 00:06:38,840 --> 00:06:42,240 regime change, it was regime rebooting of a sort. 127 00:06:42,240 --> 00:06:44,520 And they were talking to the vice president for months before 128 00:06:44,520 --> 00:06:45,920 this happened. And she may have been 129 00:06:45,920 --> 00:06:47,800 instrumental in throwing Maduro under the bus. 130 00:06:48,080 --> 00:06:50,920 There is no such process as far as we know in Iran. 131 00:06:51,280 --> 00:06:53,240 And there's a real danger that, you know, if they try something 132 00:06:53,240 --> 00:06:56,040 similar in Iran and it fails, they'll have, you know, they'll 133 00:06:56,040 --> 00:06:58,200 be accused of, of botching it, basically. 134 00:06:58,400 --> 00:07:00,760 But at the same time, I think Donald Trump, who is quite 135 00:07:00,760 --> 00:07:04,640 impulsive, you know, and, and can be moved by these reports 136 00:07:04,640 --> 00:07:08,080 of, of outrage and massacre on the streets, might feel that 137 00:07:08,080 --> 00:07:11,320 something, anything has to come from the skies. 138 00:07:11,560 --> 00:07:13,400 Yeah. And what is interesting about 139 00:07:13,400 --> 00:07:17,160 this, Donald Trump's second presidency is for all the talk 140 00:07:17,160 --> 00:07:20,800 of American isolationism, all the promise of no forever wars, 141 00:07:20,800 --> 00:07:23,720 it has been incredibly interventionist. 142 00:07:23,720 --> 00:07:27,000 You and I have talked about this so much on the, you know, 143 00:07:27,000 --> 00:07:29,640 Channel 4 News bulletins and on this podcast. 144 00:07:29,640 --> 00:07:33,360 But, you know, there have been strikes on Syria, on Nigeria, on 145 00:07:33,360 --> 00:07:37,680 Somalia, on Yemen, on Iraq, on Iran last year when there was 146 00:07:37,680 --> 00:07:41,800 the war with Israel, when he actually this week described his 147 00:07:41,800 --> 00:07:44,600 strike on a nuclear facility there as flawed. 148 00:07:44,720 --> 00:07:48,000 And then, of course, we've seen what we've seen in Venezuela. 149 00:07:48,320 --> 00:07:51,960 You talk about Venezuela. The people of Venezuela wanted 150 00:07:51,960 --> 00:07:54,640 regime change. And many will feel frustrated 151 00:07:54,640 --> 00:07:58,240 that what they actually got was, yes, Maduro going out, but the 152 00:07:58,240 --> 00:08:01,760 vice president who was frankly up to her eyeballs in the same, 153 00:08:02,120 --> 00:08:05,960 you know, administration carrying on and America probably 154 00:08:05,960 --> 00:08:08,440 having more influence over Venezuela than Iran. 155 00:08:08,440 --> 00:08:10,440 So there will be some nervousness about it. 156 00:08:10,440 --> 00:08:13,480 Now we know that Donald Trump has met with his national 157 00:08:13,480 --> 00:08:15,640 security team. They then met again on Tuesday 158 00:08:15,640 --> 00:08:19,560 this week themselves. The options they are said to be 159 00:08:19,560 --> 00:08:22,920 discussing, and I'd just like to ask you about these, Matt, are 160 00:08:23,240 --> 00:08:25,440 economic sanctions. We've already heard him talk 161 00:08:25,440 --> 00:08:28,600 about tariffs for those doing business with Iran, but economic 162 00:08:28,600 --> 00:08:32,360 sanctions on individuals within the regime, cyber attacks that 163 00:08:32,360 --> 00:08:35,520 could quite try and disrupt some of the issues that you've been 164 00:08:35,520 --> 00:08:37,720 talking about in terms of communications. 165 00:08:38,760 --> 00:08:42,679 A kind of symbolic strike, one which is there to show American 166 00:08:42,679 --> 00:08:45,160 support, but perhaps not with much follow up. 167 00:08:45,160 --> 00:08:48,280 Perhaps hitting particular buildings that are seen as quite 168 00:08:48,280 --> 00:08:50,400 symbolic. A strike that actually tries to 169 00:08:50,400 --> 00:08:54,520 take out the supreme Leader himself, which is being talked 170 00:08:54,520 --> 00:08:59,000 about more at the moment, or a kind of bigger intervention, I 171 00:08:59,000 --> 00:09:01,120 would say. I don't get the impression that 172 00:09:01,120 --> 00:09:02,600 they want to do a bigger intervention. 173 00:09:02,600 --> 00:09:04,600 Everything we've seen before, this has been more like a 174 00:09:04,600 --> 00:09:07,800 surgical strike. There is a lot of resistance 175 00:09:07,800 --> 00:09:10,240 here in including from JD Vance, the Vice President, to that. 176 00:09:10,480 --> 00:09:13,600 Talk me through some of those options, Matt, and what you 177 00:09:13,600 --> 00:09:16,200 think might be likely to come and the impact it would have. 178 00:09:16,720 --> 00:09:19,600 There's something to be said in favour and against all of them. 179 00:09:19,880 --> 00:09:22,320 So if you take things like sanctions, there are of course, 180 00:09:22,320 --> 00:09:24,960 already sanctions in place against Iran. 181 00:09:25,520 --> 00:09:28,080 They were triggered after Trump pulled out of the, you know, the 182 00:09:28,080 --> 00:09:30,400 nuclear accords, which he did almost immediately when he came 183 00:09:30,400 --> 00:09:33,720 back into into power. There are sanctions also imposed 184 00:09:33,720 --> 00:09:36,080 by, you know, many European nations against Iran. 185 00:09:36,400 --> 00:09:39,200 But despite those sanctions, Iran has been doing, you know, 186 00:09:39,240 --> 00:09:42,600 economically on one level, not so badly because they're selling 187 00:09:42,600 --> 00:09:44,920 a lot of their oil to China. You know, they have, you know, 188 00:09:44,920 --> 00:09:47,440 very close links with Russia. As we know. 189 00:09:47,720 --> 00:09:50,520 You know, a lot of the military hardware from Iran was bought by 190 00:09:50,520 --> 00:09:52,000 the Russians to be used in Ukraine. 191 00:09:52,000 --> 00:09:55,960 So they are part of the kind of wider axis of authoritarian 192 00:09:55,960 --> 00:09:59,320 governments, which also includes Pyongyang and so on. 193 00:09:59,560 --> 00:10:02,640 So economically they can probably they could have 194 00:10:02,640 --> 00:10:05,280 survived quite well if it weren't for the absolute cock 195 00:10:05,280 --> 00:10:09,800 up, you know, that led to the, you know, hyperinflation and 196 00:10:09,800 --> 00:10:11,920 then the collapse of the currency which was then felt 197 00:10:11,920 --> 00:10:15,680 immediately on the markets. Now part of that was a result of 198 00:10:15,680 --> 00:10:18,680 what happened last June in the circle 12 day war, but part of 199 00:10:18,680 --> 00:10:21,320 it is just down to the sheer incompetence of the Ayatollas. 200 00:10:21,480 --> 00:10:24,200 And that is something that has been very much registered by the 201 00:10:24,200 --> 00:10:27,600 so-called bizarre class. Now, the second thing is so 202 00:10:27,600 --> 00:10:30,280 sanctions, OK, you can increase them, but that's not going to 203 00:10:30,280 --> 00:10:31,960 have an immediate effect. Because I guess what they're 204 00:10:31,960 --> 00:10:34,400 thinking of is how do we stop the killing on the streets? 205 00:10:34,400 --> 00:10:38,880 How do we use this opportunity of fearlessness and rage to to 206 00:10:38,880 --> 00:10:42,240 work against, you know, to tip over so that the regime actually 207 00:10:42,280 --> 00:10:44,920 falters? So you're looking at cyber 208 00:10:44,920 --> 00:10:46,280 warfare. Well, that can certainly, you 209 00:10:46,280 --> 00:10:47,840 know, the Americans have used it before. 210 00:10:48,960 --> 00:10:51,400 There was a famous Stuxnet virus, something it was called 211 00:10:51,400 --> 00:10:55,840 where they basically stopped the centrifuges of a, of Iranian 212 00:10:55,840 --> 00:10:57,920 enrichment facilities. I think that was not an, that 213 00:10:57,920 --> 00:11:00,920 was a Democratic administration that did that, not, not the last 214 00:11:00,920 --> 00:11:03,440 Trump administration. So they can do that, right? 215 00:11:03,600 --> 00:11:06,280 They've got the ability to do that, but that doesn't that 216 00:11:06,280 --> 00:11:08,560 doesn't necessarily make a difference, especially when the 217 00:11:08,560 --> 00:11:11,880 nuclear program has been sort of kind of put on ice anyway by the 218 00:11:12,240 --> 00:11:16,000 by the war from last year. And also, if the Internet is 219 00:11:16,000 --> 00:11:18,160 shut down, and that's one of the reasons why they're shutting it 220 00:11:18,160 --> 00:11:21,560 down, you then have much less ability to go in there and hack 221 00:11:21,560 --> 00:11:22,160 stuff. OK. 222 00:11:22,160 --> 00:11:25,120 So cyber warfare doesn't really work if the country's gone 223 00:11:25,120 --> 00:11:26,120 offline. OK. 224 00:11:26,120 --> 00:11:28,800 And not to the same extent. And then you have military 225 00:11:28,800 --> 00:11:30,600 strikes. And I guess what they must be 226 00:11:30,600 --> 00:11:33,280 thinking of, can we take out the Ayatollah, which would be an 227 00:11:33,280 --> 00:11:35,760 obvious thing to do. They shield away from doing that 228 00:11:35,800 --> 00:11:38,280 in June because they thought that would be a step too far. 229 00:11:38,280 --> 00:11:40,160 But I'm sure they're thinking about that right now. 230 00:11:40,640 --> 00:11:42,480 If we take him out, the guy's in his 80s. 231 00:11:42,480 --> 00:11:45,360 He's, he sounds very frail or they're still, you know, very 232 00:11:45,360 --> 00:11:47,400 ruthless. Does that actually make a 233 00:11:47,400 --> 00:11:50,640 difference when you have an entire security structure, the, 234 00:11:50,640 --> 00:11:53,640 you know, the Revolutionary Guard, the Basij militia, you 235 00:11:53,640 --> 00:11:57,120 know, the regular army, when they're kind of seem to be 236 00:11:57,120 --> 00:11:59,720 unified in opposition to their own population. 237 00:12:00,120 --> 00:12:01,640 So maybe that won't make much of a difference. 238 00:12:01,880 --> 00:12:04,160 The key thing I would be looking at, and we just don't have 239 00:12:04,160 --> 00:12:07,160 access to this, is when they say they're talking to the foreign 240 00:12:07,160 --> 00:12:08,880 minister, who else are they talking to? 241 00:12:09,240 --> 00:12:11,680 Are they talking to people in the regular army, you know, 242 00:12:11,680 --> 00:12:14,360 generals in the army who don't like, you know, who answer to 243 00:12:14,360 --> 00:12:17,240 the president who's supposed to be a bit of a reformer, who 244 00:12:17,240 --> 00:12:20,400 don't like what's going on? The way these regimes fall is 245 00:12:20,400 --> 00:12:24,640 when the institution split and one institution, especially in 246 00:12:24,640 --> 00:12:27,360 uniform, sides with the people on the streets. 247 00:12:27,360 --> 00:12:28,880 That's what I would be looking out for. 248 00:12:28,880 --> 00:12:32,320 And I wonder, you know, to what extent that can be accelerated 249 00:12:32,320 --> 00:12:34,320 by military strikes or hindered by them. 250 00:12:34,320 --> 00:12:36,240 I'm not sure it could be accelerated. 251 00:12:36,600 --> 00:12:39,600 You could could find that, You know, IGRC generals think, oh, 252 00:12:39,600 --> 00:12:42,120 I'd rather live than die under an American bombardment. 253 00:12:42,440 --> 00:12:45,200 And so maybe they're not talking through back channels to, I 254 00:12:45,200 --> 00:12:47,320 don't know, Marco Rubio or Pete Hexor, Who knows? 255 00:12:47,840 --> 00:12:51,000 I think there's been an interesting shift in tone from 256 00:12:51,000 --> 00:12:54,120 Donald Trump this week. Earlier in the week, he was 257 00:12:54,120 --> 00:12:57,880 talking about diplomacy. He was telling reporters, you 258 00:12:57,880 --> 00:13:00,200 know, they call me, I've been talking to them. 259 00:13:00,200 --> 00:13:03,000 Obviously, I'd prefer diplomacy to take action. 260 00:13:03,200 --> 00:13:06,600 And then we had this kind of hardening of his tone where he 261 00:13:06,600 --> 00:13:10,000 suddenly said on true social, I'm not talking to any officials 262 00:13:10,000 --> 00:13:13,760 anymore, get out there, protest, take over your institutions. 263 00:13:13,760 --> 00:13:15,400 And I was wondering what had led to that. 264 00:13:15,720 --> 00:13:19,360 And one thing that was being reported on Fox News, which we 265 00:13:19,360 --> 00:13:26,040 know he watches, was the Ayatollahs Russian language X 266 00:13:26,040 --> 00:13:31,320 account in Russia. He had written in Russian that 267 00:13:31,320 --> 00:13:33,960 America better be careful not to miscalculate here. 268 00:13:33,960 --> 00:13:36,800 And it actually wasn't being that broadly reported on or 269 00:13:36,800 --> 00:13:40,440 taken that seriously, but it was being reported on Fox News. 270 00:13:40,440 --> 00:13:44,160 And I did wonder if Donald Trump had seen that and had felt some 271 00:13:44,160 --> 00:13:46,400 sort of anger to it. And in fact, his press 272 00:13:46,400 --> 00:13:49,800 secretary, Caroline Leavitt, then came out just outside the 273 00:13:49,800 --> 00:13:52,960 White House and suddenly spoke to a load of journalists saying 274 00:13:52,960 --> 00:13:55,600 they're saying one thing in public and they're saying 275 00:13:55,600 --> 00:13:58,680 another thing behind the scenes. We know that he is quite 276 00:13:58,680 --> 00:14:02,360 sensitive to all of that. I think one of the risks here is 277 00:14:02,360 --> 00:14:06,240 that every single, you know, strike that we have seen from 278 00:14:06,240 --> 00:14:08,360 the US has been a surgical strike. 279 00:14:08,360 --> 00:14:12,440 Trump has wanted to say victory, as he did in Venezuela, without 280 00:14:12,440 --> 00:14:14,440 actually getting the thing that a lot of the people on the 281 00:14:14,440 --> 00:14:17,120 ground want, which is regime change. 282 00:14:17,320 --> 00:14:21,400 And and so there is no sense that they want to follow up with 283 00:14:21,400 --> 00:14:25,200 what might be required in Iran to try and stabilize the 284 00:14:25,200 --> 00:14:27,080 country. I mean, I think the, I think the 285 00:14:27,080 --> 00:14:31,360 difference in between Venezuela and Iran is very stark. 286 00:14:31,480 --> 00:14:35,200 Venezuela was a, you know, a slow bleed and up a population 287 00:14:35,200 --> 00:14:39,160 was deeply upset by levels of corruption and incompetence and 288 00:14:39,160 --> 00:14:42,000 all that stuff, but they weren't gunning down their own people on 289 00:14:42,000 --> 00:14:44,160 the streets. This is different. 290 00:14:44,160 --> 00:14:47,200 I mean, there's a massacre, as far as we can tell, even with an 291 00:14:47,200 --> 00:14:50,960 Internet blackout being perpetrated against, you know, 292 00:14:51,120 --> 00:14:54,840 kids who were at university, who were, you know, on TikTok until 293 00:14:54,840 --> 00:14:57,160 a few weeks ago, you know, who were dreaming of a better 294 00:14:57,160 --> 00:14:58,680 future. And again, I come back to this 295 00:14:58,680 --> 00:15:00,320 thing. This is a highly educated, 296 00:15:00,640 --> 00:15:03,760 sophisticated and mostly secular population. 297 00:15:04,120 --> 00:15:06,920 They feel completely out of sync with the ayatollahs, you know, 298 00:15:06,920 --> 00:15:10,600 with the theocracy that's been running around quite badly for 299 00:15:10,600 --> 00:15:13,120 all these decades. And practically, do you think 300 00:15:13,120 --> 00:15:18,240 that a strike then leads to a change in regime or what are the 301 00:15:18,240 --> 00:15:20,960 risks in between? Well, you know, anything could 302 00:15:20,960 --> 00:15:22,400 happen, right? You could have a strike that 303 00:15:22,400 --> 00:15:25,200 could embolden, you know, the really hardcore of the, you 304 00:15:25,200 --> 00:15:28,480 know, the, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard and, and one 305 00:15:28,480 --> 00:15:30,600 of their kind of, you know, hard generals, the ones that weren't 306 00:15:30,600 --> 00:15:33,880 killed in the in the June war of last year, takes over and, and 307 00:15:33,880 --> 00:15:36,360 becomes even more brutal. Or it could be that, you know, 308 00:15:36,360 --> 00:15:38,720 there are conversations that suddenly happened quite quickly 309 00:15:38,720 --> 00:15:42,040 between Zapalavi, you know, the the man who would have been 310 00:15:42,040 --> 00:15:44,520 Crown Prince, the son of the late Shah, and various 311 00:15:44,520 --> 00:15:47,640 oppositional forces inside Iran, of which there are there are 312 00:15:47,640 --> 00:15:49,400 plenty. But as we've said before, you 313 00:15:49,400 --> 00:15:52,360 know, they're all kind of quite bitterly divided against each 314 00:15:52,360 --> 00:15:54,280 other. But there's nothing like this 315 00:15:54,280 --> 00:15:58,320 sort of degree of brutality to bring even adversaries together 316 00:15:58,320 --> 00:16:00,920 and make them contemplate things that were, you know, 317 00:16:01,000 --> 00:16:02,840 unthinkable, you know, just a few weeks ago. 318 00:16:03,080 --> 00:16:05,200 I just, I just want to tell you this one little story. 319 00:16:05,560 --> 00:16:07,600 I interviewed the Iranian foreign minister, the last 320 00:16:07,600 --> 00:16:10,800 Iranian foreign minister, but I interviewed him literally 10 321 00:16:10,800 --> 00:16:14,520 days before he died in a helicopter crash, which also 322 00:16:14,520 --> 00:16:18,440 killed the Iranian president. And the final question, I said 323 00:16:18,440 --> 00:16:22,820 to him, what are you more afraid of Donald Trump getting re 324 00:16:22,820 --> 00:16:26,280 elected or your own people? And at that stage, I noticed 325 00:16:26,280 --> 00:16:29,480 that his legs started to shake. You know, it was shaking. 326 00:16:29,480 --> 00:16:31,760 I mean, his knee was getting up and down like this and he was 327 00:16:31,760 --> 00:16:34,360 looking at me daggers. And he was really upset by the 328 00:16:34,360 --> 00:16:37,520 question answered in Farsi and said something along the lines 329 00:16:37,520 --> 00:16:39,760 of how, how dare you suggest that we're afraid of anyone. 330 00:16:39,920 --> 00:16:41,560 We have the greatest democracy on the planet. 331 00:16:41,560 --> 00:16:44,160 Da, da, da, da, da interviewed, end of interview, right. 332 00:16:44,320 --> 00:16:48,120 It was interesting that this man who was the the embodiment of 333 00:16:48,160 --> 00:16:51,160 unruffled diplomacy suddenly looked quite ruffled. 334 00:16:51,720 --> 00:16:54,920 So I do think there's a degree of fear from from the regime 335 00:16:54,920 --> 00:16:57,520 towards what's going on on the streets. 336 00:16:57,760 --> 00:16:59,840 And I think you know, and Trump knows that. 337 00:16:59,840 --> 00:17:04,200 And I again, what haunts him is I don't do anything at all. 338 00:17:04,200 --> 00:17:07,280 These people get hung and strung up, you know, and forget about 339 00:17:07,280 --> 00:17:09,359 the Peace Prize. But I mean, it's just sort of it 340 00:17:09,359 --> 00:17:13,480 will keep him up at night and it should do or I do something and 341 00:17:13,480 --> 00:17:14,839 it goes wrong. And then of course, there's 342 00:17:14,839 --> 00:17:16,560 always respect him. We mustn't forget this. 343 00:17:16,800 --> 00:17:21,000 Jimmy Carter's presidency was, was, you know, to some extent 344 00:17:21,000 --> 00:17:23,880 brought down or rather he became a one term president because of 345 00:17:23,880 --> 00:17:27,800 the botched rescue operation of the American diplomats who had 346 00:17:27,800 --> 00:17:32,040 been kidnapped in Tehran for, you know, over a year. 347 00:17:32,480 --> 00:17:34,880 They tried to rescue them. No one was rescued. 348 00:17:34,880 --> 00:17:38,040 It was a huge humiliation for Jimmy Carter and it was one of 349 00:17:38,040 --> 00:17:39,720 the reasons why he lost the election. 350 00:17:39,800 --> 00:17:41,240 There is the other thing as well. 351 00:17:41,320 --> 00:17:44,440 Just looking at this from an American point of view, which is 352 00:17:44,440 --> 00:17:47,520 the reason people are quite surprised by all the 353 00:17:47,520 --> 00:17:51,920 interventions, is that, you know, make America great again. 354 00:17:51,920 --> 00:17:55,080 The MAGA movement is hardly supportive of the idea of 355 00:17:55,080 --> 00:17:57,760 foreign interventions and certainly not in the Middle 356 00:17:57,760 --> 00:18:00,520 East. They, you know, really hate the 357 00:18:00,520 --> 00:18:03,760 idea of the forever wars that we saw in Iraq and Afghanistan and 358 00:18:03,760 --> 00:18:06,440 the impact that that had on American soldiers. 359 00:18:06,440 --> 00:18:09,720 And also there is an economic issue here at the moment. 360 00:18:09,720 --> 00:18:11,640 People are really feeling the squeeze. 361 00:18:11,640 --> 00:18:14,760 They want Donald Trump to focus on domestic issues. 362 00:18:14,760 --> 00:18:18,760 I find it interesting that all of this comes after, you know, 363 00:18:18,760 --> 00:18:21,120 the administration has been talking so forcefully about the 364 00:18:21,120 --> 00:18:26,120 so-called Donroe Doctrine, the, you know, renamed Monroe 365 00:18:26,120 --> 00:18:28,200 Doctrine, the idea that they're going to focus on the Western 366 00:18:28,200 --> 00:18:29,800 Hemisphere. And now suddenly they are 367 00:18:29,800 --> 00:18:33,880 weighing up the idea of military action in Iran. 368 00:18:34,720 --> 00:18:36,560 You know, I don't think we need to go to massive detail because 369 00:18:36,560 --> 00:18:38,720 neither of us are in Donald Trump's head. 370 00:18:38,920 --> 00:18:41,600 We're always in his head in USA. We live in that head for 371 00:18:41,600 --> 00:18:43,400 goodness sake. We live. 372 00:18:43,440 --> 00:18:45,840 We live in his head. I'd be somewhat more skeptical 373 00:18:46,720 --> 00:18:49,120 about his motivations than you on this one. 374 00:18:49,120 --> 00:18:51,760 But nevertheless, he is weighing it up. 375 00:18:51,920 --> 00:18:54,440 I think it could be quite difficult for him here in the 376 00:18:54,520 --> 00:18:57,880 US, not only in terms of his base and what they might think 377 00:18:57,880 --> 00:18:59,440 about it. You know, ultimately they may 378 00:18:59,440 --> 00:19:01,080 support him anyway. But I was in the capital 379 00:19:01,080 --> 00:19:03,600 yesterday. And there is also, you know, 380 00:19:03,920 --> 00:19:07,680 fury across Congress about the fact that all these strikes are 381 00:19:07,680 --> 00:19:09,400 happening without congressional approval. 382 00:19:09,520 --> 00:19:11,840 There is precedent for that. Barack Obama did it. 383 00:19:12,000 --> 00:19:17,320 But we've now started to see Republicans vote with Democrats, 384 00:19:17,360 --> 00:19:21,320 enough of them, much to Donald Trump's fury, to try to limit 385 00:19:21,320 --> 00:19:23,000 his ability when it comes to war. 386 00:19:23,400 --> 00:19:26,440 I think there is, however, a key distinction here, which I think, 387 00:19:26,760 --> 00:19:29,200 you know, he will be taking into account. 388 00:19:29,680 --> 00:19:32,520 There's a difference between forever wars that involve 389 00:19:32,520 --> 00:19:36,520 American boots on the ground. So occupation of Afghanistan and 390 00:19:36,520 --> 00:19:41,120 Iraq incredibly costly and ultimately botched air strikes, 391 00:19:41,240 --> 00:19:43,720 you know, from 30,000 feet is a different matter. 392 00:19:44,560 --> 00:19:47,240 Venezuela, a surgical operation that doesn't involve the 393 00:19:47,240 --> 00:19:50,560 American troops staying in Venezuela more than two hours is 394 00:19:50,560 --> 00:19:54,000 a different matter. The only the big risk with Iran 395 00:19:54,320 --> 00:19:57,760 is that you do something that ends up either having no 396 00:19:57,760 --> 00:20:00,080 discernible, making no difference at all, in which case 397 00:20:00,080 --> 00:20:02,960 America looks toothless despite baring its teeth. 398 00:20:03,400 --> 00:20:06,680 You know, or you do something and and it gets it's horribly 399 00:20:06,680 --> 00:20:08,160 botched. You know you, I don't know you 400 00:20:08,160 --> 00:20:11,200 hit the wrong target. And we may never know because of 401 00:20:11,200 --> 00:20:13,840 the Internet blackout, but that is so there are risks there. 402 00:20:14,200 --> 00:20:17,560 But I would, I would think, and I may be wrong here, I would 403 00:20:17,560 --> 00:20:21,080 think that those risks outweigh what they think of the benefits 404 00:20:21,080 --> 00:20:24,680 of some kind of action. And I would not, I mean, I would 405 00:20:24,680 --> 00:20:28,840 put money on something happening in the next few days or weeks 406 00:20:28,920 --> 00:20:31,520 from the American side. And of course, everything, every 407 00:20:31,520 --> 00:20:32,920 issue has to be seen in a different light. 408 00:20:32,920 --> 00:20:36,280 So there are Republican senators or congressmen who are perfectly 409 00:20:36,280 --> 00:20:40,400 happy to see military strikes against Iran, although they are 410 00:20:40,400 --> 00:20:43,240 holding their breath, you know, and, and crossing their fingers. 411 00:20:43,960 --> 00:20:47,080 Those same senators, you know, and we heard one last week who 412 00:20:47,080 --> 00:20:51,360 said, you know, using force to take Greenland is, and I quote, 413 00:20:51,400 --> 00:20:54,680 weapons grade stupid. So that's another issue that 414 00:20:54,680 --> 00:20:57,760 you'll be reporting on where, you know, the, the, the people 415 00:20:57,760 --> 00:20:59,520 aren't quite so unified. You know, they don't see the 416 00:20:59,520 --> 00:21:01,400 logic of it. You don't break up NATO for the 417 00:21:01,400 --> 00:21:03,400 sake of green and for goodness sake, you know, there are other 418 00:21:03,400 --> 00:21:05,480 ways of securing American interests than that. 419 00:21:05,760 --> 00:21:08,160 So, you know, again, everything is case by case. 420 00:21:08,360 --> 00:21:10,400 Iran is, is very much so generous. 421 00:21:10,400 --> 00:21:12,760 It's tricky, it's complicated. There are lots of risk factors 422 00:21:12,760 --> 00:21:14,520 there. But there's a sort of 423 00:21:14,600 --> 00:21:19,520 overwhelming, I think, desire driven by the rage that is felt 424 00:21:19,520 --> 00:21:22,800 at the at the, the images we're hearing about to do something. 425 00:21:23,080 --> 00:21:26,360 And if you've got that toy box, you know, ballistic missiles and 426 00:21:26,360 --> 00:21:29,360 other things at your disposal is the most powerful man in the 427 00:21:29,360 --> 00:21:35,040 world, you're going to use it. So we're joined by Rob Malley, 428 00:21:35,080 --> 00:21:38,680 who is a senior lecturer at the Jackson School at El University, 429 00:21:38,680 --> 00:21:42,360 but also served as Biden's special envoy to Iran. 430 00:21:42,360 --> 00:21:46,640 And you've also been a former Middle East advisor in 3 431 00:21:46,640 --> 00:21:49,920 presidential administrations. So you've been in the room, Rob. 432 00:21:50,120 --> 00:21:54,640 What do you expect that Donald Trump and key advisors are 433 00:21:54,640 --> 00:21:57,160 discussing in terms of Iran right now? 434 00:21:57,400 --> 00:22:00,200 Well, I think President Trump has made it as clear as as it 435 00:22:00,200 --> 00:22:03,240 could be in his for clarity in his case is not always the the 436 00:22:03,240 --> 00:22:06,640 most evident attribute. But in this case, I think he's 437 00:22:06,640 --> 00:22:08,880 signaled that there will be a military strike. 438 00:22:09,360 --> 00:22:12,200 He, we know he likes dramatic spectacular strikes. 439 00:22:12,560 --> 00:22:14,480 They don't. He doesn't like long wars, but 440 00:22:14,480 --> 00:22:17,760 he likes short, dramatic confrontations in which the US 441 00:22:17,760 --> 00:22:19,560 has the upper hand. So I think we should expect 442 00:22:19,840 --> 00:22:24,840 sometime in the coming days some strike on regime targets, 443 00:22:25,040 --> 00:22:26,760 security services. But who knows? 444 00:22:26,760 --> 00:22:29,440 He could always surprise us. But everything he's telegraphed 445 00:22:29,440 --> 00:22:33,760 so far suggests that, you know, on the on the back of what he 446 00:22:33,760 --> 00:22:37,640 considers A spectacular success in Venezuela, having warned the 447 00:22:37,640 --> 00:22:41,000 Iranian regime, wanting to be on the side as he puts it up, the 448 00:22:41,000 --> 00:22:44,440 protesters and believing that at this point Iran doesn't have 449 00:22:44,440 --> 00:22:48,000 that many options to respond forcefully against an American 450 00:22:48,000 --> 00:22:51,080 attack. My assumption is that we will 451 00:22:51,080 --> 00:22:53,640 see something. And, Rob, the success of the 452 00:22:53,640 --> 00:22:57,680 Venezuela operation, especially the extraction of Madura, you 453 00:22:57,680 --> 00:23:00,680 know, putting him on trial in New York was so extraordinary. 454 00:23:00,680 --> 00:23:03,440 And, of course, much trumpeted, forgive the term by the Trump 455 00:23:03,440 --> 00:23:06,080 administration. It kind of sets the standards, 456 00:23:06,080 --> 00:23:08,520 doesn't it? You know, do you think they've 457 00:23:08,520 --> 00:23:12,880 been planning something, you know, similar with the Ayatollah 458 00:23:13,000 --> 00:23:16,480 Khamenei in recent months as they were planning with Maduro? 459 00:23:16,720 --> 00:23:20,240 Do you think they've got a clear idea of targets in all this? 460 00:23:20,600 --> 00:23:23,320 Or are we dealing with a kind of more instinctive reaction from 461 00:23:23,320 --> 00:23:26,480 the president, who is as upset as many people are about the 462 00:23:26,680 --> 00:23:29,480 reports of violence on the streets of places like Tehran? 463 00:23:29,880 --> 00:23:31,200 Yes. I'm not sure that what's truly 464 00:23:31,200 --> 00:23:33,960 motivating him is level of upset at the levels of violence. 465 00:23:33,960 --> 00:23:36,560 I think he has other considerations in mind. 466 00:23:36,760 --> 00:23:40,520 Again, I think he is fond of these dramatic, spectacular 467 00:23:40,800 --> 00:23:44,960 military raids when he killed Qasem Soleimani, bombed Fordow 468 00:23:45,240 --> 00:23:48,080 in Iran, the nuclear site, and now what he did in in Venezuela. 469 00:23:48,080 --> 00:23:51,200 So I think he's a bit intoxicated with his own self 470 00:23:51,200 --> 00:23:54,880 perception of success. And he may also have been told 471 00:23:54,880 --> 00:23:57,760 by a number of people around him, certainly by the Israeli 472 00:23:57,760 --> 00:24:02,280 Prime Minister, that the Iranian regime is very, you know, it's 473 00:24:02,280 --> 00:24:05,240 very weak at this point. And it might take just a little 474 00:24:05,240 --> 00:24:08,640 push from the US to see dramatic changes in Tehran. 475 00:24:08,920 --> 00:24:11,600 I personally doubt that, but he may well be convinced of it. 476 00:24:11,600 --> 00:24:15,920 And at this point, he doesn't need a big success coming out of 477 00:24:15,920 --> 00:24:17,320 this to be able to claim success. 478 00:24:17,320 --> 00:24:20,800 He has defined success in a way that guarantees he won't fail 479 00:24:20,800 --> 00:24:24,040 because for him, success is showing that he has done what no 480 00:24:24,040 --> 00:24:26,360 other president has done, that he's intervened militarily on 481 00:24:26,360 --> 00:24:30,880 the side of protesters in Iran and that by striking something, 482 00:24:30,880 --> 00:24:33,960 he'll he'll achieve some target. I don't think he could kidnap 483 00:24:34,040 --> 00:24:36,640 the supreme leader, but he could do, he could kill regime 484 00:24:36,640 --> 00:24:38,480 officials. He could target security 485 00:24:38,480 --> 00:24:40,680 installations. He could do something that says 486 00:24:41,000 --> 00:24:44,400 to him and to his his constituency, I said I would 487 00:24:44,400 --> 00:24:45,360 act. I acted. 488 00:24:45,480 --> 00:24:46,880 I said I would punish the regime. 489 00:24:46,880 --> 00:24:48,960 I punish them. And if they continue, I could 490 00:24:48,960 --> 00:24:51,640 punish them again. So he sets the bar wherever he 491 00:24:51,640 --> 00:24:55,080 wants it to be set, and he will claim success regardless of what 492 00:24:55,080 --> 00:24:56,960 happens. But it is interesting to watch 493 00:24:56,960 --> 00:25:00,200 Donald Trump talk about success in Venezuela when at the moment 494 00:25:00,200 --> 00:25:03,760 the same regime is in place. Venezuela and Iran are very 495 00:25:03,760 --> 00:25:06,360 different, right? In Venezuela, America can exert 496 00:25:06,440 --> 00:25:09,200 quite a lot of influence at the moment, it says, because of the 497 00:25:09,200 --> 00:25:13,200 leverage of the oil. But but just looking at it as an 498 00:25:13,200 --> 00:25:16,000 analyst, not thinking about Trump's motivations, if you have 499 00:25:16,000 --> 00:25:20,520 these options on the table, economic sanctions, cyber 500 00:25:20,520 --> 00:25:25,000 attacks, a limited targeted strike or something bigger, 501 00:25:25,680 --> 00:25:29,360 looking at the situation now from your point of view, what do 502 00:25:29,360 --> 00:25:31,400 you think of the merits of those different options? 503 00:25:31,840 --> 00:25:34,640 I mean, we're not even talking now about the legality of some 504 00:25:34,640 --> 00:25:36,960 of these options. So let's let's put those as that 505 00:25:36,960 --> 00:25:39,160 issue aside. I think the question comes down 506 00:25:39,160 --> 00:25:41,840 to what's the objective and it's not clear what the objective is. 507 00:25:41,840 --> 00:25:44,400 Is it just a signal American resolve? 508 00:25:44,400 --> 00:25:47,400 And again, the fact that when the US president threatens 509 00:25:47,400 --> 00:25:50,480 something, he acts on his threat and that people pay a price for 510 00:25:50,480 --> 00:25:52,680 ignoring his threats? If that's the objective, that's 511 00:25:52,680 --> 00:25:55,280 one thing. Is the objective to deter and 512 00:25:55,280 --> 00:25:58,520 stop the Iranian authorities from massacring their people? 513 00:25:59,000 --> 00:26:01,600 Very hard to see why how a military strike achieves that. 514 00:26:01,960 --> 00:26:04,800 Is it to topple the regime? Again, it's hard to see how 515 00:26:04,800 --> 00:26:08,360 strikes, however extensive they are, would lead to the downfall 516 00:26:08,360 --> 00:26:11,280 of the of the regime and certainly hard to see how it 517 00:26:11,280 --> 00:26:14,840 transitions at that point towards the kind of of 518 00:26:14,840 --> 00:26:17,280 government that the US says it wants to see in Tehran. 519 00:26:17,280 --> 00:26:21,560 So the the objectives have not been defined other than living 520 00:26:21,560 --> 00:26:24,640 up to the president's threat. Now, I don't want one big 521 00:26:24,640 --> 00:26:27,360 caveat, which is that the president can, as you said 522 00:26:27,360 --> 00:26:29,640 earlier, he acts by instinct. He could change his mind. 523 00:26:29,640 --> 00:26:32,720 So maybe everything I'm saying now will turn out not to be 524 00:26:32,720 --> 00:26:35,000 true, you know, 24 hours from today. 525 00:26:35,400 --> 00:26:38,280 But at this point, everything signals that he is in that mode 526 00:26:38,280 --> 00:26:41,800 of wanting something, and again, he will define whether it's 527 00:26:41,800 --> 00:26:43,480 successful based on his own criteria. 528 00:26:43,480 --> 00:26:45,320 You're asking me? But what do you think should 529 00:26:45,320 --> 00:26:48,880 happen if you were there? What if the objective right now 530 00:26:48,880 --> 00:26:51,520 is to stop what Iran is doing to its people? 531 00:26:51,520 --> 00:26:53,320 I don't think that administrative strike would 532 00:26:53,320 --> 00:26:54,840 achieve that. I think there are other ideas 533 00:26:54,840 --> 00:26:59,320 that are out there about, you know, cyber forms of cyber 534 00:26:59,320 --> 00:27:02,040 warfare that would prevent the regime from communicating with 535 00:27:02,040 --> 00:27:04,840 itself so that you disrupt their operations. 536 00:27:05,240 --> 00:27:08,480 You could also have efforts to try to help the Iranian people 537 00:27:08,480 --> 00:27:11,080 be in a better position to escape the complete blackout 538 00:27:11,080 --> 00:27:12,680 that's been imposed by the authorities. 539 00:27:13,120 --> 00:27:16,440 But frankly, the, the, the sad truth is they're very limited 540 00:27:16,440 --> 00:27:20,080 options If the goal it when, when a government or regime 541 00:27:20,080 --> 00:27:23,960 feels itself existentially at stake to try to stop it from 542 00:27:24,200 --> 00:27:26,920 going after people who they believe are threatening their 543 00:27:26,920 --> 00:27:28,640 rule. There are very few options that 544 00:27:28,640 --> 00:27:30,560 are out there. And that's just, that's just the 545 00:27:30,560 --> 00:27:31,960 reality. But there's steps that can be 546 00:27:31,960 --> 00:27:35,560 taken to try to limit the ability of the government to 547 00:27:35,560 --> 00:27:37,120 repress its own people. I wouldn't. 548 00:27:37,480 --> 00:27:41,160 I wouldn't claim that those are going to be wildly successful. 549 00:27:41,440 --> 00:27:44,880 Rob speaking to a lot of Iranians, this week's mostly 550 00:27:44,880 --> 00:27:47,960 outside Iran because of the Internet problems and the phone 551 00:27:47,960 --> 00:27:50,360 lines being cut. But I've really noticed two 552 00:27:50,360 --> 00:27:55,920 things compared to last year or any previous time, even those 553 00:27:55,920 --> 00:27:58,600 people who don't particularly like the Trump administration 554 00:27:58,720 --> 00:28:02,560 are so enraged by what the regime has been doing to 555 00:28:02,560 --> 00:28:06,200 protesters on the streets that they are almost begging him to 556 00:28:06,200 --> 00:28:08,320 intervene. I mean, you know, even if it 557 00:28:08,320 --> 00:28:11,400 doesn't result in, you know, regime change or even if it 558 00:28:11,400 --> 00:28:14,040 doesn't, you know, it's not the domino that topples the OR the 559 00:28:14,040 --> 00:28:16,920 other dominoes. They just want someone to 560 00:28:16,920 --> 00:28:20,640 suffer, you know, and they think that only Trump can impose that 561 00:28:20,640 --> 00:28:23,840 degree of suffering on the regime because the street is 562 00:28:23,840 --> 00:28:26,240 helpless. The second thing that I've 563 00:28:26,240 --> 00:28:29,840 really noticed is that Reza Pahlavi, you know, the the son 564 00:28:29,840 --> 00:28:33,000 of the late Shah who's been living in exile in Maryland for 565 00:28:33,000 --> 00:28:34,920 decades, you know, and I've met him a few times. 566 00:28:34,920 --> 00:28:39,000 I interviewed him once for the BBC and who seemed to be utterly 567 00:28:39,000 --> 00:28:42,840 irrelevant for many, many years. The State Department, you know, 568 00:28:42,880 --> 00:28:46,480 under, you know, Bush and Obama wouldn't go anywhere near him, 569 00:28:46,920 --> 00:28:49,480 right? His name is now being shouted 570 00:28:49,480 --> 00:28:52,320 more and more on the streets of Iranian cities. 571 00:28:52,320 --> 00:28:54,160 Maybe because there's no obvious alternative. 572 00:28:54,640 --> 00:28:57,240 And I just wonder whether you had any dealings with him when 573 00:28:57,240 --> 00:29:00,680 you were working for President Biden and for his predecessors, 574 00:29:00,960 --> 00:29:04,520 and whether you think he is at all a viable option, either as a 575 00:29:04,520 --> 00:29:07,800 transitional figure or maybe he's part of some kind of future 576 00:29:07,800 --> 00:29:10,520 government. So first, I mean, you know, I 577 00:29:10,520 --> 00:29:13,200 think we're both hearing many of the of the similar things. 578 00:29:13,200 --> 00:29:15,400 I really don't want to be in a position here where I claim that 579 00:29:15,400 --> 00:29:16,760 I know how the Iranian people feel. 580 00:29:16,760 --> 00:29:19,600 I don't know. I've not been there for decades. 581 00:29:19,600 --> 00:29:21,840 I was there on three days decades ago. 582 00:29:22,360 --> 00:29:25,200 I, I don't know that how the majority of Iranians feel, but I 583 00:29:25,200 --> 00:29:28,560 could it's very understandable that a number of them who either 584 00:29:28,560 --> 00:29:30,960 have been victim or their families have been victim or 585 00:29:31,040 --> 00:29:34,280 friends have been a victim of, of the, the crackdown that they 586 00:29:34,280 --> 00:29:36,560 won't help from anywhere, anytime, anyplace. 587 00:29:36,560 --> 00:29:39,760 And if right now, as you say, the one country that seems 588 00:29:39,760 --> 00:29:43,240 prepared to do something for good or I'll is the United 589 00:29:43,240 --> 00:29:44,640 States and it is President Trump. 590 00:29:44,880 --> 00:29:46,480 So I'm not. I wouldn't be surprised if there 591 00:29:46,480 --> 00:29:49,520 is that feeling among many Iranians looking for salvation. 592 00:29:49,520 --> 00:29:51,600 And they look to the one place where they think it may come 593 00:29:51,600 --> 00:29:54,200 from, whether that's a majority of you, a plurality of you. 594 00:29:54,240 --> 00:29:57,800 I again, I'm not even going to to try to, to speculate, but 595 00:29:57,800 --> 00:30:00,800 there must be a level of desperation and despair on the 596 00:30:00,800 --> 00:30:03,480 part of many Iranians who are prepared to, to look at anything 597 00:30:03,480 --> 00:30:05,920 and who may think nothing can be worse than what we are 598 00:30:05,920 --> 00:30:09,400 experiencing today. On the question of, of, of the 599 00:30:09,400 --> 00:30:13,840 former Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi, There was no formal 600 00:30:13,840 --> 00:30:16,000 interaction with him when I was in the body administration. 601 00:30:16,000 --> 00:30:18,640 I think I had one chance encounter at a, at a conference 602 00:30:18,640 --> 00:30:20,880 at one point. I think you're right that his 603 00:30:20,880 --> 00:30:24,560 name is being clamored more than any other name at this point, 604 00:30:24,560 --> 00:30:26,320 partly because there are no other names. 605 00:30:26,320 --> 00:30:28,760 I'm not sure, again, that that's an indication of his level of 606 00:30:28,760 --> 00:30:32,040 support among the masses of Iranians or what it would mean 607 00:30:32,040 --> 00:30:34,240 if at any point there's a transition in Iran. 608 00:30:34,440 --> 00:30:37,080 Would he be somebody or would it be people who've lived in Iran, 609 00:30:37,080 --> 00:30:39,840 who struggled in Iran and what some level know their country 610 00:30:39,840 --> 00:30:43,240 better than he does? Again, I think it's very hard 611 00:30:43,240 --> 00:30:47,520 for anyone on the outside to speculate because we are in 612 00:30:47,560 --> 00:30:50,200 uncharted territory when there's no name but one name. 613 00:30:50,200 --> 00:30:52,160 That's the one name people are going to to chat. 614 00:30:52,320 --> 00:30:54,720 There's no other name right now. He's one person who's visible. 615 00:30:54,720 --> 00:30:58,240 He obviously is well funded and so I think he has that name 616 00:30:58,240 --> 00:31:00,960 recognition that others lack. I don't would think that that 617 00:31:00,960 --> 00:31:04,720 necessarily translates into political organizational support 618 00:31:04,760 --> 00:31:08,120 on the ground. Can I ask you about the risks of 619 00:31:08,120 --> 00:31:10,960 military action? What do you fear would happen if 620 00:31:10,960 --> 00:31:13,960 Donald Trump goes ahead and strikes Iran? 621 00:31:14,000 --> 00:31:17,560 And just, I'm sorry to say, it sounds a little hopeless from 622 00:31:17,560 --> 00:31:20,000 what you're saying. You know, whatever the rights or 623 00:31:20,000 --> 00:31:24,320 wrongs of military action may be, this regime is doing really 624 00:31:24,320 --> 00:31:27,320 terrible things on the ground. Can you see a way out? 625 00:31:27,320 --> 00:31:30,840 Can you see a place where we get to where the regime does fall? 626 00:31:31,560 --> 00:31:35,600 Oh, listen, when I say that, you know, whatever pessimism you may 627 00:31:35,600 --> 00:31:38,600 have detected in in my tone, it's that I don't think that 628 00:31:38,960 --> 00:31:43,080 externally inspired coups, revolutions, uprisings have a 629 00:31:43,080 --> 00:31:45,440 great track record of success, particularly when it comes to 630 00:31:45,440 --> 00:31:47,160 the United States. And we could go down the list. 631 00:31:47,160 --> 00:31:50,160 So it's very hard to imagine that as a result of military 632 00:31:50,160 --> 00:31:52,680 strikes, you're going to see either the regime deciding 633 00:31:52,680 --> 00:31:55,400 they're not going to, you know, fight back against the 634 00:31:55,400 --> 00:31:58,560 protesters or a change in the regime. 635 00:31:58,560 --> 00:32:01,600 Now, I do think the dynamics within Iran itself are the ones 636 00:32:01,600 --> 00:32:03,080 that are going to be the most important to watch. 637 00:32:03,480 --> 00:32:06,440 And it is clear that the regime is has losing, has lost 638 00:32:06,440 --> 00:32:10,280 legitimacy, has lost resources, assets, the ability to sort of 639 00:32:10,280 --> 00:32:11,920 reproduce the conditions of its rule. 640 00:32:11,920 --> 00:32:14,600 So at some point, I believe there will be a fundamental 641 00:32:14,600 --> 00:32:17,160 transition, transformation. I don't know when, and I'm not 642 00:32:17,160 --> 00:32:20,680 sure what role the outside players will will play. 643 00:32:20,920 --> 00:32:24,240 But the dynamics in Iran, I think the intensity of the 644 00:32:24,240 --> 00:32:27,160 protest, the fact that we now have protests every few years. 645 00:32:27,160 --> 00:32:29,440 So it's not as if you have a protest, then you wait a decade 646 00:32:29,440 --> 00:32:31,320 and you have another mass protest. 647 00:32:31,320 --> 00:32:33,400 They they're happening more frequently with greater 648 00:32:33,400 --> 00:32:36,120 intensity and with people feeling they have less to lose. 649 00:32:36,120 --> 00:32:39,080 So I do think that they will be a change in Iran. 650 00:32:39,320 --> 00:32:42,680 I'm not going to try to put a date on it, a timeline on it. 651 00:32:43,960 --> 00:32:46,520 So but I think your, your question has to do with what the 652 00:32:46,520 --> 00:32:48,000 impact of an American strike would be. 653 00:32:48,000 --> 00:32:51,520 Again, part of part of it depends on how intensive broad 654 00:32:51,920 --> 00:32:53,880 and what the targets of the strikes will be. 655 00:32:54,160 --> 00:32:57,040 But I think the range of responses and, and I'm really 656 00:32:57,040 --> 00:33:01,080 sorry to sound as speculative as I as, as I will, but I do think 657 00:33:01,080 --> 00:33:04,480 there's so many unknowns. It goes from the Iranian simply 658 00:33:04,480 --> 00:33:06,280 saying we're going to absorb the shock. 659 00:33:06,760 --> 00:33:08,280 We're still standing on the day after. 660 00:33:08,280 --> 00:33:11,960 And so, yes, the, the, the, the American president thought that 661 00:33:11,960 --> 00:33:13,920 by striking us, we're going to, we're going to collapse. 662 00:33:13,920 --> 00:33:15,440 We're not collapsing. We're still standing. 663 00:33:15,440 --> 00:33:19,440 And that's our victory. Depending on how severe the 664 00:33:19,440 --> 00:33:22,000 strikes are and how threatened the regime may be, they may 665 00:33:22,000 --> 00:33:27,040 decide to lash out with nothing to lose and go after oral 666 00:33:27,040 --> 00:33:30,640 installations. American head personnel in the 667 00:33:30,640 --> 00:33:33,040 region, Israel, all of those are possible. 668 00:33:33,360 --> 00:33:36,520 I wouldn't put them as the most likely responses because then 669 00:33:36,560 --> 00:33:40,200 Iran is really inviting a much more massive retaliation by the 670 00:33:40,280 --> 00:33:43,480 US or by or by Israel. So I think they will calibrate 671 00:33:43,480 --> 00:33:46,280 their response depending on the severity of the attack. 672 00:33:46,680 --> 00:33:49,160 I mean, as you said, you know, these regimes are rarely toppled 673 00:33:49,240 --> 00:33:52,440 from the streets, even if ordinary protesters have have 674 00:33:52,440 --> 00:33:54,120 lost their fear. And there seems to be quite a 675 00:33:54,120 --> 00:33:55,920 lot of that going on. They're just, you know, this is 676 00:33:55,960 --> 00:33:59,240 a last chance saloon both for them and indeed for the people 677 00:33:59,240 --> 00:34:00,960 running the country or miss running the country. 678 00:34:01,320 --> 00:34:03,880 I just wonder when, when you were, you know, on the Middle 679 00:34:03,880 --> 00:34:06,320 East desk of the previous administrations, did you reach 680 00:34:06,320 --> 00:34:07,800 out? And did you get any traction at 681 00:34:07,800 --> 00:34:10,520 all with, you know, people in the, you know, in the 682 00:34:10,520 --> 00:34:13,639 Revolutionary Guard or in the government, in the elected, you 683 00:34:13,639 --> 00:34:17,159 know, civilian government who might be ready to, you know, who 684 00:34:17,159 --> 00:34:21,360 might now be, you know, talking to the United States behind 685 00:34:21,360 --> 00:34:24,080 closed doors? Because the way these things 686 00:34:24,080 --> 00:34:26,679 collapse often is from within. So before I answer that, I just 687 00:34:26,679 --> 00:34:28,239 want to come back to your last point, which I think is 688 00:34:28,239 --> 00:34:31,440 important about how internal dynamics can evolve. 689 00:34:31,719 --> 00:34:35,840 Let's just look at a comparison, which is a very inexact 690 00:34:35,840 --> 00:34:39,360 comparison, But the Syria, we had an uprising which was, and 691 00:34:39,360 --> 00:34:41,600 it's the state that was much weaker than the Iranian state, 692 00:34:41,960 --> 00:34:45,239 an uprising that was well funded, armed by the outside 693 00:34:45,440 --> 00:34:46,920 that seemed to be threatening the regime. 694 00:34:46,920 --> 00:34:50,639 And yet the regime held on between 2011 to 2024. 695 00:34:50,639 --> 00:34:53,840 And so that's one lesson that regimes could survive. 696 00:34:53,840 --> 00:34:57,160 But then at the time when least was least expected, the regime 697 00:34:57,160 --> 00:34:58,240 crumbled. And I think there are two 698 00:34:58,240 --> 00:35:00,600 lessons there. It could take a long time 699 00:35:00,680 --> 00:35:03,000 because regimes that are fighting for their survival, 700 00:35:03,240 --> 00:35:06,360 have the fire and that have the firepower to do so will do so. 701 00:35:06,640 --> 00:35:10,760 But second, that we should never be surprised by being surprised. 702 00:35:10,760 --> 00:35:12,400 Things could happen all of a sudden. 703 00:35:12,400 --> 00:35:15,120 It could take a long time and then all of a sudden the House 704 00:35:15,120 --> 00:35:17,160 of Cards just collapse, collapses. 705 00:35:17,560 --> 00:35:19,880 On your second issue, Listen, I, I don't, I don't want to talk 706 00:35:19,880 --> 00:35:22,360 about what the intelligence community might have done, some 707 00:35:22,360 --> 00:35:24,160 of which I'm not even be Privy to. 708 00:35:24,440 --> 00:35:27,640 I would say that the level of the political, the State 709 00:35:27,640 --> 00:35:29,840 Department, the, the White House, no, there was not 710 00:35:29,840 --> 00:35:32,880 attempts to try to get members of the regime to defect. 711 00:35:32,880 --> 00:35:34,480 It would be too dangerous for them. 712 00:35:34,480 --> 00:35:35,560 It would be too dangerous for us. 713 00:35:35,560 --> 00:35:38,560 And probably we wouldn't be particularly good at picking and 714 00:35:38,560 --> 00:35:41,320 then probably exposing the people that we were reaching out 715 00:35:41,360 --> 00:35:43,000 to. So no, that was not part of my 716 00:35:43,000 --> 00:35:45,360 experience. Again, what the intelligence 717 00:35:45,360 --> 00:35:48,400 community might be doing. I leave that to intelligence 718 00:35:48,400 --> 00:35:52,000 officials to talk to you about. Matt suggested that you know 719 00:35:52,000 --> 00:35:54,960 Trump's motives might be about trying to help the people who 720 00:35:54,960 --> 00:35:57,200 were protesting, and you suggested that might not be the 721 00:35:57,200 --> 00:35:59,000 case. Can I just say just really 722 00:35:59,000 --> 00:36:01,560 quickly in defence of Donald Trump, which which is something 723 00:36:01,560 --> 00:36:05,840 I don't do every day, the I, I have no doubts about the fact 724 00:36:05,840 --> 00:36:08,280 that he's looking at oil and strategy and projection of 725 00:36:08,280 --> 00:36:11,720 power. But I do think it is not beyond, 726 00:36:11,880 --> 00:36:15,320 you know, his wit or our wit, that you can be both strategic 727 00:36:15,360 --> 00:36:19,160 and tactical while at the same time feeling, you know, very 728 00:36:19,160 --> 00:36:22,600 human outrage about, you know, reports of massacres of innocent 729 00:36:22,600 --> 00:36:25,160 civilians on the streets. You know, and when he talks 730 00:36:25,160 --> 00:36:27,480 about people getting killed in Ukraine, it's kind of similar. 731 00:36:27,800 --> 00:36:30,440 It doesn't mean that it doesn't follow from that that he's got a 732 00:36:30,440 --> 00:36:33,000 coherent strategy for how to change the regime. 733 00:36:33,200 --> 00:36:36,640 But I'm pretty sure that he's pretty angry at the moment at 734 00:36:36,640 --> 00:36:39,080 the kind of reports that are making us angry as well. 735 00:36:39,600 --> 00:36:44,080 Of course, and also I think, I think angry a bit about anti 736 00:36:44,080 --> 00:36:46,760 American rhetoric coming from some of the members of the 737 00:36:46,760 --> 00:36:48,640 regime as well, because I noticed that his language 738 00:36:48,640 --> 00:36:51,200 shifted suddenly. But on Venezuela, for example, 739 00:36:51,360 --> 00:36:53,200 he spoke a lot about human rights before. 740 00:36:53,280 --> 00:36:55,000 He never spoke about democracy after. 741 00:36:55,000 --> 00:36:58,680 And I just really wanted to ask, in terms of Iran, it's a bit 742 00:36:58,680 --> 00:37:00,360 different. The oil industry is much more 743 00:37:00,360 --> 00:37:03,920 separate from the US than the Venezuelan oil industry was. 744 00:37:04,160 --> 00:37:09,840 Are there energy commercial interests in Iran that Trump may 745 00:37:09,840 --> 00:37:13,600 well have his eyes on that America could actually 746 00:37:13,840 --> 00:37:18,080 realistically get to 1 day? So first, you make a fairpoint. 747 00:37:19,320 --> 00:37:22,080 Donald Trump is a human being. Sometimes one could forget that. 748 00:37:22,080 --> 00:37:25,480 And he is. He seems to be become emotional 749 00:37:25,480 --> 00:37:27,520 when he sees some pictures of children being killed. 750 00:37:27,520 --> 00:37:30,160 I would say that his outrage is selective and his outrage is 751 00:37:30,160 --> 00:37:32,840 often dictated by other considerations, as you just 752 00:37:32,840 --> 00:37:34,480 said. And so he may, you know, what's 753 00:37:34,480 --> 00:37:37,040 happening in Sudan may for some reason bother him less than 754 00:37:37,040 --> 00:37:38,680 what's happening in Iran for other reasons. 755 00:37:39,360 --> 00:37:42,720 But anyway, I'm not going to try to decipher his motivations too 756 00:37:42,720 --> 00:37:45,520 much. Yes, I think in his mind he sees 757 00:37:45,560 --> 00:37:48,640 Iran as a as a huge market and as a huge producer of oil. 758 00:37:48,840 --> 00:37:51,120 And whenever he sees that, he believes there may be financial 759 00:37:51,120 --> 00:37:53,520 opportunities. I think the Iranian regime tried 760 00:37:53,520 --> 00:37:55,920 to play on that when they said we could reach a deal and then 761 00:37:55,920 --> 00:37:58,560 we you could have billions of dollars of investment. 762 00:37:58,560 --> 00:38:01,200 And who knows what he may be imagining that there's an 763 00:38:01,200 --> 00:38:04,680 outcome in which just as he did, as he's doing with Venezuela, 764 00:38:05,280 --> 00:38:08,400 the US will or he will will derive some financial benefit 765 00:38:08,720 --> 00:38:12,680 from Iranian oil. Again, it's hard to see exactly 766 00:38:12,680 --> 00:38:14,360 what he may have in mind for him. 767 00:38:14,360 --> 00:38:16,120 It may be more abstract, amorphous. 768 00:38:16,120 --> 00:38:20,120 But if you have a friendlier regime in in Tehran, one that 769 00:38:20,120 --> 00:38:22,880 depends on the US, one that's going to want sanctions relief 770 00:38:22,880 --> 00:38:26,440 and is prepared to trade some some financial benefit in 771 00:38:26,440 --> 00:38:29,880 exchange for getting financial sanctions relief, I'm sure 772 00:38:29,880 --> 00:38:31,480 that's in his head. And I think that's one of the 773 00:38:31,480 --> 00:38:34,760 reasons why he finds Iran a particularly interesting country 774 00:38:34,760 --> 00:38:37,000 to deal with. And he said that many times. 775 00:38:37,000 --> 00:38:40,000 He never leaves the I mean, when, when, when Trump speaks, 776 00:38:40,000 --> 00:38:42,320 you have to listen carefully because he often speaks the 777 00:38:42,320 --> 00:38:46,120 truth, even inadvertently. And he often speaks about Iran's 778 00:38:46,120 --> 00:38:47,880 economic potential. I think that is one of the 779 00:38:47,880 --> 00:38:51,760 motivations as to why he thinks that either at some point a deal 780 00:38:51,760 --> 00:38:55,120 with maybe a slightly different regime or with a completely 781 00:38:55,120 --> 00:38:58,400 different regime, or some kind of a bargain can be done in 782 00:38:58,400 --> 00:39:01,040 which financial benefits would accrue to the United States. 783 00:39:01,680 --> 00:39:03,720 Rob. Really fascinating, really 784 00:39:03,720 --> 00:39:05,800 appreciate your time. Thank you for joining us. 785 00:39:07,040 --> 00:39:10,760 So look, obviously talking about foreign policy again, Matt and 786 00:39:11,120 --> 00:39:13,720 Trump world obviously will often do that. 787 00:39:13,720 --> 00:39:16,680 There's been a lot of domestic stuff going on here. 788 00:39:16,680 --> 00:39:20,240 I've obviously not long come back from Minneapolis where an 789 00:39:20,240 --> 00:39:22,720 ICE agent shot and killed Renee. Good. 790 00:39:22,720 --> 00:39:26,760 I think that story is going to run and run because of the 791 00:39:26,760 --> 00:39:30,920 reactions to it. And it is such a tragedy. 792 00:39:30,920 --> 00:39:33,080 I'm sure we'll be talking about that soon. 793 00:39:33,080 --> 00:39:35,840 And maybe maybe Donald Trump is even thinking that he might 794 00:39:35,840 --> 00:39:39,320 distract from, you know, trouble on the streets of America by 795 00:39:39,320 --> 00:39:42,840 launching air strikes, you know, onto the military installations 796 00:39:42,840 --> 00:39:44,960 of Iran. And I think without Anushka, 797 00:39:45,040 --> 00:39:46,960 we're going to wrap it up. Yeah, that's it. 798 00:39:46,960 --> 00:39:50,040 Please do press subscribe or follow wherever you are 799 00:39:50,040 --> 00:39:53,440 listening or watching. We really appreciate it and do 800 00:39:53,440 --> 00:39:56,360 leave us any messages. That's it for us this week. 801 00:39:56,400 --> 00:39:57,240 See you next week.