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Whatever Trump says, and the 
trouble isn't no one really 

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believing anything comes out of 
his mouth anymore. 

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At the end of the day, you need 
to sit down with the very people

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whose annihilation you tried to 
seek at the beginning of this 

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war. 
And I don't think that is a 

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problem that Donald Trump has 
fully come to terms with yet. 

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Anyone who deals with Donald 
Trump sits there like biting 

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their fingernails because they 
know that one slip can make the 

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whole thing go wrong. 
Hello and welcome to Trump 

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World. 
I'm Matt Fry in London. 

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And I'm Anish Kristana, also in 
London, visiting during Easter 

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or spring break, as they call it
in the US And today we're 

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talking about Donald Trump maybe
thinking that the war in Iran 

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could come to an end. 
I mean, that's a big maybe, and 

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I'm sure we'll come to that. 
But the question a lot of us are

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wondering is what it means for 
geopolitics after it, not least 

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because right now, Matt, Donald 
Trump is saying that he would 

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think again about NATO 
membership. 

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And not only Donald Trump, his 
Secretary of State, Marco Rubio,

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who's normally normally a bit 
more careful over these things. 

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Now, we have heard them threaten
to leave NATO before. 

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But why do you think it's 
different this time? 

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Well, first of all, the 
language, Anushka, I mean, 

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Donald Trump is giving an 
interview to Reuters as we 

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speak. 
And the word that he's used is 

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that he is disgusted with the 
way that NATO has behaved over 

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its non involvement in trying to
open up the Strait of Hormuz. 

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Disgusted. 
This is not a word that we've 

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heard before, even though Trump 
has held all sorts of insults at

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NATO in previous months. 
Senator Marco Rubio, former 

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senator, now Secretary of State 
Marco Rubio has also given an 

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interview to Fox News where he 
normally quite mild mannered and

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reasonable, has been saying more
or less, we've got to think 

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about this relationship. 
If they're not helping us out in

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our war, then why should we help
them out with their war? 

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And I guess he was hinting at 
Russia and Ukraine and all that 

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situation. 
Now, the it's rather odd that 

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Marco Rubio should be saying 
this one because he doesn't 

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normally say abrasive things. 
But also because he was actually

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one of the people who allowed a 
law to pass in the Senate with a

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2/3 majority in 2024. 
Whereby it is stipulated that if

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America wants to leave NATO or 
other alliances like it in the 

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future, it needs a 2/3 majority 
in the Senate or indeed an act 

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of Congress. 
So Marco Rubio's was one of 

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those people who said at the 
time, we don't want this kind of

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threat that Trump issued in the 
first administration ever to 

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become a reality. 
But like many people in Rushka, 

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Little Marco, as he used to be 
called by Trump, has been on a 

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journey. 
Well, someone I was just talking

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to was arguing that little Marco
is trying to look in two 

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directions at once. 
He kind of wants to still be the

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pragmatic Secretary of State, 
and that is the messaging that 

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they're getting from him behind 
the scenes. 

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But at the same time, he wants 
to be the next president. 

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And So what Donald Trump thinks 
of you and what you say in a 

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moment like this is really 
important. 

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I mean, when you hear this sort 
of stuff about NATO, my first 

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thought is to both call people 
in the embassy, the British 

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Embassy in DC, but also call 
people in the Foreign Office 

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here in London. 
And it is kind of quite 

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interesting to hear what they're
saying about it. 

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I mean, they're trying to still 
say cool heads pragmatism. 

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Keep calm and carry on. 
Keep calm, carry on. 

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I said to them, well, it's 
getting harder. 

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And they were like, it is hard. 
It absolutely is hard. 

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There is this kind of idea that 
Donald Trump is getting really 

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frustrated. 
He's getting frustrated because 

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the war isn't going in the way 
that he had hoped that it would 

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go, but that, you know, for NATO
involvement in something, there 

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are steps that you have to go 
through. 

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He didn't go through them. 
He went ahead with this war with

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barely any notice at all to the 
allies that he's now hitting out

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at. 
And then the other factor in 

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this, which I think is really 
fascinating, is what people 

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think in their own countries. 
The reality for Keir Starmer is 

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this is not a popular war here 
in the UK. 

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And so, you know, really 
actually, let's just listen to 

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him. 
He is kind of bending over 

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backwards to say on my own man. 
This is not our war. 

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We will not be drawn into the 
conflict, that is not in our 

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national interest and the most 
effective way we can support the

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cost of living in Britain is to 
push for de escalation in the 

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Middle East and a reopening of 
the Strait of Hormuz, which is 

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such a vital route for energy. 
To that end, we're exploring 

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each and every Diplomatic Ave. 
that is available to us. 

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And so we have this kind of 
strange situation where for Keir

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Starmer, the kind of local 
political demand is to be anti 

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Donald Trump and anti the Iran 
war. 

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But for many of the, you know, 
diplomats behind the scenes, the

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importance of the relationship 
continues. 

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But just one, you know, on that 
political thing, I thought it 

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was interesting. 
I interviewed Kemi Badenoch 

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earlier this week for Channel 4 
News and she has been on a 

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journey, hasn't she, Matt? 
At the beginning of this, she 

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and Nigel Farage, the Reform 
leader, were basically saying 

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how could we not support the US 
anymore? 

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And then both of them have 
looked at the polls and realized

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actually what Donald Trump is 
doing right now is not very 

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popular either here or in other 
countries. 

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I thought it was interesting to 
hear Georgia Maloney also for 

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from an Italian perspective, 
have to calm down on her special

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relationship with Donald Trump. 
And this is Georgia Maloney, who

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was one of the few European 
leaders actually invited to his 

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inauguration. 
I mean, she's, you know, she is 

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Donald Trump's favoured Western 
European leader, even more than 

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Keir Starmer. 
So all these leaders, whether 

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it's, you know, Georgia Maloney,
obviously the Spanish Prime 

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Minister has already been in the
doghouse with Trump for some 

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time. 
And there were calls yesterday 

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to have Spain expelled from NATO
even as Trump was musing about 

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leaving the organization 
himself. 

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You've got the French also using
very robust language against 

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Donald Trump. 
This is from Macron. 

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He used to fancy himself as a 
Trump whisperer. 

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The German Chancellor came out 
with some very strong words as 

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well. 
I think in all those countries, 

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it's a lot easier, frankly, to 
take a public stance against 

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Donald Trump. 
By the way, Germany, even the 

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Afd, right, the right wing 
populist Afd that was supported 

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by Trump and by Vance and by 
Elon Musk, they've also come out

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against this war and against the
idea of any German involvement. 

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Now it's, it's easier for them 
to do that because they don't 

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have this special relationship 
with America. 

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And by that I mean a special 
military relationship with the 

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United States. 
And I was speaking to General 

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Sir Patrick Sanders, former 
chief of the, of the the General

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Staff here in the UK. 
And he was saying that, you 

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know, it's tricky for us because
even though we have complete 

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autonomy over how we use our 
nuclear weapons in Britain or 

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anything else for that matter, 
the kit is only, only works 

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because it's being maintained in
an American garage. 

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So you can still drive your car,
but unless you go back to the 

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American garage to tweak it and 
fix it and do the MOT every now 

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and again, you won't be able to 
drive it. 

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So we have a much, we're much 
more dependent than other 

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European nations on America's 
security umbrella than they are.

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So that puts us in a really 
tricky position. 

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And the other thing he 
mentioned, and he was pretty 

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appalled by the language that 
that Trump has used about his 

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allies. 
And he made the point that you 

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just made as well, that you 
heard from your friends at the 

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embassy that if you don't 
consult allies, how can you 

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possibly win them over to an 
exercise like, you know, trying 

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to take on Iran? 
But he made the point that by 

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not allowing the Americans to 
use those two British bases, 

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Fred Fairford in Gloucestershire
and Diego Garcia from the very 

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beginning of the war, that 
really spot the relationship. 

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And in his view on that very 
narrow question, we should have 

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yielded because we ended up 
doing so anyway. 

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We should have yielded and that 
would have allowed us to 

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maintain a little bit more of 
the moral high ground. 

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But the overall impression that 
that he left me with is that on 

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one hand, NATO is much stronger 
than it was. 

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Remember just a few years ago, 
Emmanuel Macron before the the 

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Russia, Ukraine war was saying 
NATO is brain dead. 

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Well, it's not brain dead. 
It has a very clear purpose, 

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especially in Europe. 
But and it's got more funding 

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because of a combination of 
Trump's threats and Putin's war.

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Everyone is spending more on 
defence. 

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Everyone is thinking about 
defence, but if you're sugar 

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daddy and that's let's face it, 
that is what you know, America 

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is to NATO decides to, you know,
to channel, you know, Freddy 

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Krueger or, or Dirty Harry, then
you've got a problem. 

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You know, and, and this use of 
language by the Americans, you 

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know, basically, you know, 
dissing their allies, being rude

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about their friends. 
This is not the way to keep an 

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alliance alive. 
And I think that is a 

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fundamental problem. 
And of course, you know, just as

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you know, we were all wondering 
whether Trump would pull out of 

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NATO yesterday and he was again 
insulting the Brits. 

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You know, the the palace, as in 
Buckingham Palace, confirms the 

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fact that King Charles the Third
will, after all, go and visit 

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the United States for his royal 
state visit at the end of April.

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It's got to be quite awkward, 
isn't it? 

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Very. 
Awkward, but in a way it's one 

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of the cards that the UK 
government is playing because 

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despite the rhetoric, they still
want to have where they can, a 

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decent relationship with the 
Americans. 

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They're working incredibly hard 
behind the scenes to try and 

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make sure that goes well. 
They know that while Donald 

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Trump will slag off, you know, 
Keir Starmer till the cows come 

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home, he's not going to slag off
the king. 

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You know, remember that meeting,
but Keir Starmer with Donald 

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Trump early on where honestly 
speaking to people inside 

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Downing Street at the time, the 
choreography, the days they 

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spent thinking about it. 
And at the heart of it was that 

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letter, that letter about the 
king, which they see as the kind

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of special thing they're going 
to play with Donald Trump. 

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And although the king goes as 
the king, he goes really on 

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behalf of the British 
government. 

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And so getting the kind of 
coordination of that right is 

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00:10:09,400 --> 00:10:12,880
seen as incredibly important for
both sides in terms of improving

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this relationship. 
Again, it's also interesting 

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just talking to people behind 
the scenes, which bit can they 

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do to try and ease the 
relationship? 

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And the thing they're working on
is, OK, we don't support the 

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offensive attack on Iran, but we
do support getting the Strait of

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00:10:27,160 --> 00:10:29,920
Hormuz open, not least because 
we need it in the UK. 

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So we can focus in on that. 
And, you know, they were really 

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pleased. 
On the fringes of the G7 meeting

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in Paris, Yvette Cooper was 
talking to Marco Rubio, trying 

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to persuade him that Britain had
had a really positive role when 

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00:10:42,560 --> 00:10:43,760
it came to the Straight of 
Hormuz. 

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00:10:43,760 --> 00:10:47,240
And they were delighted when 
Marco Rubio goes on TV and says 

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Britain has played a really 
important role there. 

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00:10:49,920 --> 00:10:52,400
And I think they still think, 
even though Rubio is saying this

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stuff out loud, that they did 
make some achievements there. 

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So I think they hope that 
focusing on the Straight of 

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Hormuz plus the king could be 
really positive for them. 

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00:11:02,720 --> 00:11:04,600
We'll make. 
It sound far too easy I think. 

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Anyone. 
Who Deals with Donald Trump sits

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00:11:06,480 --> 00:11:09,640
there like biting their 
fingernails because they know 

213
00:11:09,640 --> 00:11:13,520
that one slip can make the whole
thing go wrong. 

214
00:11:13,520 --> 00:11:14,760
Best. 
Laid plans right. 

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So I mean, I it's interesting 
when we just on this 

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relationship. 
So when, you know, in the last 

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00:11:19,000 --> 00:11:21,720
two weeks and we've been talking
a lot about this, you know, even

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though Trump hasn't been 
insulting Keir Starmer and Keir 

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00:11:24,200 --> 00:11:26,640
Starmer has this kind of Love 
Actually moments down again when

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he stands up and reminds Trump 
that he's a, you know, 

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00:11:29,800 --> 00:11:31,760
sovereign, you know, the Prime 
Minister of the sovereign 

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00:11:31,760 --> 00:11:33,200
nation, etcetera, etcetera, 
etcetera. 

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We always said, well, underneath
it all, you know, on the next 

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level, the relationship is 
absolutely fine. 

225
00:11:38,800 --> 00:11:42,200
You know, British Spooks are 
talking to American Spooks and 

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00:11:42,200 --> 00:11:43,800
the top brass is talking to each
other. 

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00:11:44,240 --> 00:11:46,920
Well, what I've been hearing 
from people in that world is 

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00:11:46,920 --> 00:11:48,680
actually, it's not quite what it
was. 

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00:11:49,040 --> 00:11:52,200
So they've been quite a few 
occasions now where, you know, a

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00:11:52,200 --> 00:11:55,840
British top spy will be asked to
leave the room when there's a 

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00:11:55,840 --> 00:11:58,680
discussion between, you know, 
under the Five Eyes agreement 

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00:11:58,680 --> 00:12:01,800
between between an American and 
an Australian and the New 

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00:12:01,800 --> 00:12:03,960
Zealand, they said Britain, 
could you just, could you just 

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00:12:03,960 --> 00:12:06,080
do you mind just going out? 
Can you imagine that, right? 

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00:12:06,600 --> 00:12:08,640
The Brits being excluded on 
occasion. 

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00:12:08,640 --> 00:12:11,040
It's not happening as a matter 
of course, but it's been 

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00:12:11,040 --> 00:12:13,320
noticed. 
Or for instance, if the 

238
00:12:13,320 --> 00:12:17,120
Americans want to, you know, as 
a matter of course, get 

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00:12:17,120 --> 00:12:19,560
permission for one of their 
bombers to land at Fairford. 

240
00:12:20,040 --> 00:12:21,600
Normally that is just a rubber 
stamp. 

241
00:12:21,600 --> 00:12:23,840
You literally, you know, as long
as it takes for someone to to 

242
00:12:23,840 --> 00:12:25,440
sign that piece of paper, it's 
fine. 

243
00:12:25,880 --> 00:12:28,000
Now it's, it's taking a few 
hours. 

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00:12:28,000 --> 00:12:29,520
There are a few doubts that 
creep in. 

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00:12:29,840 --> 00:12:33,760
This is the beginning of that 
relationship on the procedural 

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00:12:33,760 --> 00:12:36,040
level potentially getting 
eroded. 

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00:12:36,040 --> 00:12:38,640
And the mood music is set at the
top. 

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00:12:38,960 --> 00:12:40,920
And it's not good. 
And that brings me back to the 

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00:12:40,920 --> 00:12:44,160
king. 
So if they decided, if Starmer 

250
00:12:44,160 --> 00:12:46,680
had said, OK, King Charles, 
you're not going to America, 

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00:12:46,680 --> 00:12:49,040
that would have been a massive 
that would have been the nuclear

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00:12:49,040 --> 00:12:51,880
diplomatic option. 
And Trump would have been so 

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00:12:51,880 --> 00:12:53,080
upset. 
He would have tried to, I don't 

254
00:12:53,080 --> 00:12:54,680
know, maybe sink the island or 
something. 

255
00:12:54,680 --> 00:12:57,120
Or I mean that that for him, 
that would be the worst thing 

256
00:12:57,120 --> 00:12:59,120
possible. 
Obviously that was not an 

257
00:12:59,120 --> 00:13:00,040
option. 
I didn't think they even 

258
00:13:00,120 --> 00:13:01,560
contemplated that for one 
minute. 

259
00:13:02,320 --> 00:13:05,400
And there was a pop. 
There is a well possibility here

260
00:13:05,400 --> 00:13:08,440
for the king when he stands up 
at the state banquet in the not 

261
00:13:08,440 --> 00:13:11,800
yet quite built ballroom, so the
old ballroom in the White House 

262
00:13:12,480 --> 00:13:16,920
and gives his address to the 
nation, to the host nation, but 

263
00:13:16,920 --> 00:13:19,560
also to his nation. 
He can. 

264
00:13:19,560 --> 00:13:23,840
There is room there for 
reminding us and them of some of

265
00:13:23,840 --> 00:13:25,480
the common principles and 
values. 

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00:13:25,960 --> 00:13:29,200
And I, I'm waiting for that very
brilliant scriptwriter to put in

267
00:13:29,200 --> 00:13:33,280
a couple of really subtle lines 
that can be seen as criticism, 

268
00:13:33,560 --> 00:13:37,520
but very veiled criticism of, 
you know, going it alone and 

269
00:13:37,520 --> 00:13:39,320
shooting from the hip and all 
that kind of stuff. 

270
00:13:39,560 --> 00:13:43,560
But to find those that write, 
you know, form of words without 

271
00:13:43,560 --> 00:13:46,800
insulting your host is going to 
be really, really tricky. 

272
00:13:47,800 --> 00:13:50,640
And you never, never know what's
going to happen with Donald 

273
00:13:50,640 --> 00:13:52,000
Trump. 
But you're right that that 

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00:13:52,000 --> 00:13:56,120
relationship behind the scenes. 
And we've got a big military 

275
00:13:56,120 --> 00:13:59,800
contingent working in the US who
are actually embedded entirely 

276
00:13:59,800 --> 00:14:02,800
inside the US military, but are 
feeling a bit more cut out of 

277
00:14:02,800 --> 00:14:04,880
some of the conversations. 
And vice versa. 

278
00:14:05,160 --> 00:14:08,400
It sounds like some some things 
are going on vice versa because 

279
00:14:08,400 --> 00:14:12,080
there's a lack of trust in the 
other direction, all of which I 

280
00:14:12,080 --> 00:14:16,840
think adds up to a difficult 
situation and which everyone is 

281
00:14:16,840 --> 00:14:20,680
just assuming that post Trump it
will calm down. 

282
00:14:20,680 --> 00:14:23,320
But let's see the other thing 
that's shifting dramatically. 

283
00:14:23,320 --> 00:14:26,200
And I'm interested what you 
think of this is where do the 

284
00:14:26,200 --> 00:14:29,840
geopolitics go after this? 
You know, a few weeks ago I was 

285
00:14:29,840 --> 00:14:32,360
talking to someone who was 
basically arguing, watch out for

286
00:14:32,360 --> 00:14:35,400
what China does because 
ultimately they'll want to come 

287
00:14:35,400 --> 00:14:38,440
in and be the kind of grown up 
in the room, try and play 

288
00:14:38,440 --> 00:14:40,360
peacemaker. 
And Matt, that is kind of what 

289
00:14:40,360 --> 00:14:43,800
we're seeing, isn't it, in terms
of these conversations between 

290
00:14:43,800 --> 00:14:45,520
Pakistan and China. 
What do you make of that? 

291
00:14:45,680 --> 00:14:47,160
Well. 
You know, yes. 

292
00:14:47,160 --> 00:14:49,600
And it started some time ago. 
I mean, ever since Trump, you 

293
00:14:49,600 --> 00:14:51,640
know, started off with 
Liberation Day and the Chinese 

294
00:14:51,640 --> 00:14:54,040
basically said we're not going 
to put up with this. 

295
00:14:54,040 --> 00:14:55,560
And they raised tariffs. 
Even more than that. 

296
00:14:55,560 --> 00:14:58,880
We had this sort of trade tit 
for tat war, which the Chinese 

297
00:14:58,880 --> 00:15:02,120
ultimately won because they had 
leverage over rare earth metals.

298
00:15:02,400 --> 00:15:04,880
Ever since then, we've seen the 
Chinese basically say to the 

299
00:15:04,880 --> 00:15:09,560
world community, we are 
predictable, we are stable, we 

300
00:15:09,560 --> 00:15:13,240
are the designated adults 
driving this rather chaotic car 

301
00:15:13,520 --> 00:15:15,240
that is the world disorder at 
the moment. 

302
00:15:15,320 --> 00:15:19,160
And they have used the Iran war,
you know, again, as an 

303
00:15:19,160 --> 00:15:21,680
opportunity to to make that 
point. 

304
00:15:21,680 --> 00:15:24,520
So first of all, they have, you 
know, they have some history in 

305
00:15:24,520 --> 00:15:28,520
this because China was 
instrumental in getting the 

306
00:15:28,520 --> 00:15:30,960
Saudis and the Iranians to talk 
to each other. 

307
00:15:30,960 --> 00:15:35,680
And they kind of made-up in 2023
after more or less a decade of 

308
00:15:35,680 --> 00:15:38,720
real animosity. 
And almost, you know, we were 

309
00:15:38,720 --> 00:15:41,560
all talking at the time about 
the Sunni Shia war, the two 

310
00:15:41,560 --> 00:15:43,920
regional superpowers at each 
other's throats. 

311
00:15:43,920 --> 00:15:46,120
And there was some, you know, 
there was some very dodgy stuff.

312
00:15:46,120 --> 00:15:48,320
The Saudis, of course, as you 
remember, were militarily 

313
00:15:48,560 --> 00:15:51,960
engaged against the pro Iranian 
Houthis in Yemen. 

314
00:15:52,280 --> 00:15:53,800
And all that was eventually put 
to bed. 

315
00:15:53,800 --> 00:15:56,720
And China played a role in that.
So China has come up again and 

316
00:15:56,720 --> 00:16:01,880
said, you know, we can do much. 
We can try and do much the same.

317
00:16:01,880 --> 00:16:03,440
We can bring everyone around the
table. 

318
00:16:04,080 --> 00:16:06,160
And again, if you look at the 
kind of tectonic plates of 

319
00:16:06,160 --> 00:16:09,480
geopolitics at the moment, they 
have a point because number one,

320
00:16:09,960 --> 00:16:12,600
there is a summit with Xi 
Jinping and Donald Trump that 

321
00:16:12,600 --> 00:16:15,360
was delayed for a month because 
of the war that's supposed to 

322
00:16:15,360 --> 00:16:18,160
take place in Beijing. 
So they're still, the Americans 

323
00:16:18,160 --> 00:16:21,640
are still looking ahead to that.
That is an opportunity to bury 

324
00:16:21,640 --> 00:16:23,720
the trade hatchet once and for 
all. 

325
00:16:23,720 --> 00:16:25,760
And I don't think Trump would 
want to jeopardize that. 

326
00:16:26,200 --> 00:16:29,320
Secondly, China has good 
relations with Pakistan. 

327
00:16:29,600 --> 00:16:33,720
Pakistan has good relations with
Iran, you know, and Pakistan is 

328
00:16:33,720 --> 00:16:37,880
seen as a also by the Americans 
as a potential honest broker. 

329
00:16:37,880 --> 00:16:41,280
So there's real diplomatic 
potential here for them to talk 

330
00:16:41,280 --> 00:16:45,560
to each other. 
The problem is Trump, you know, 

331
00:16:45,560 --> 00:16:47,400
what does he want? 
You know, is he actually 

332
00:16:47,400 --> 00:16:51,080
intending to, you know, invade 
Kaag Island? 

333
00:16:51,080 --> 00:16:53,960
And can he, which is another 
matter altogether, Does he want 

334
00:16:53,960 --> 00:16:55,840
to fight his way through the 
Strait of Hormuz? 

335
00:16:56,200 --> 00:16:58,840
And the Iranians quite rightly 
can say, listen mate, we've 

336
00:16:59,000 --> 00:17:01,400
we've had two negotiations in 
the last year. 

337
00:17:01,720 --> 00:17:06,000
One was ended by you joining 
Israel in their surprise attack 

338
00:17:06,000 --> 00:17:09,000
against us in June for the 12 
day war and the other one was 

339
00:17:09,000 --> 00:17:12,599
ended on the 28th of February. 
Why should we trust a single 

340
00:17:12,599 --> 00:17:16,520
word that you say, whether it's 
brokered by China or by Pakistan

341
00:17:16,680 --> 00:17:18,280
or by the man and the moon and 
obviously. 

342
00:17:18,280 --> 00:17:20,440
As all this is happening, the 
mood music we're getting from 

343
00:17:20,440 --> 00:17:22,920
Donald Trump is that he would 
like this to end, not least 

344
00:17:22,920 --> 00:17:25,960
because of the pressure he's 
coming under in terms of the 

345
00:17:25,960 --> 00:17:29,360
domestic population here. 
He's out giving interviews 

346
00:17:29,360 --> 00:17:31,640
again. 
The Telegraph was where he made 

347
00:17:31,640 --> 00:17:34,560
the comments about NATO. 
And in this interview that you 

348
00:17:34,560 --> 00:17:38,080
mentioned, Matt, with Reuters, 
he's basically said that maybe 

349
00:17:38,080 --> 00:17:42,120
they can get out of around very 
quickly and then return for spot

350
00:17:42,120 --> 00:17:44,600
hits if needed. 
We're going to hear him set a 

351
00:17:44,600 --> 00:17:47,960
lot of this out. 
He's doing an address to the 

352
00:17:47,960 --> 00:17:50,200
nation. 
I think CBS has actually had to 

353
00:17:50,480 --> 00:17:53,600
break up one of its reality 
television program, Survivor 

354
00:17:53,600 --> 00:17:56,920
around this, which should make 
great for interesting watching. 

355
00:17:56,920 --> 00:18:01,000
Presumably in that address he is
going to attack NATO allies and 

356
00:18:01,200 --> 00:18:05,000
others. 
Do you feel like this is a 

357
00:18:05,000 --> 00:18:08,360
moment now, a turning point, 
where he might start to pull 

358
00:18:08,360 --> 00:18:10,920
America out of this Well? 
Maybe Trump will feel like the 

359
00:18:10,920 --> 00:18:12,840
survivor. 
You know, they have a lot more 

360
00:18:12,840 --> 00:18:15,360
in common with the program on 
the other side of the screen, I 

361
00:18:15,360 --> 00:18:16,640
think. 
I mean, look, if he is 

362
00:18:16,640 --> 00:18:19,760
contemplating to call it a 
victory and walk out the exit 

363
00:18:20,160 --> 00:18:23,440
and, you know, as in you break, 
we break it, you keep it. 

364
00:18:23,440 --> 00:18:28,480
You know, in a version of the 
Colin Powell theory, then I 

365
00:18:28,480 --> 00:18:31,240
think there's a massive problem 
here because in the same vein 

366
00:18:31,240 --> 00:18:35,040
that American America can go 
back and do spot hits on stuff 

367
00:18:35,040 --> 00:18:38,520
it doesn't like in Iran, whether
it's leaders or missile, you 

368
00:18:38,520 --> 00:18:42,160
know, units or enrichment 
programs, the Iranians, all they

369
00:18:42,160 --> 00:18:45,400
have to do is fire one drone at 
a tanker trying to make its way 

370
00:18:45,400 --> 00:18:49,360
through the Strait of Hormuz 
And, and it's it's game over in 

371
00:18:49,360 --> 00:18:51,840
terms of insurance, in terms of 
the tanker traffic. 

372
00:18:52,080 --> 00:18:56,040
So it takes very little for Iran
to remind people of its leverage

373
00:18:56,080 --> 00:19:00,760
on the world's economic, you 
know, main archery and and to 

374
00:19:00,760 --> 00:19:03,800
open that archery up ultimately.
And again, talking to Patrick 

375
00:19:03,800 --> 00:19:06,160
Sanders earlier, he confirmed 
this as well. 

376
00:19:06,280 --> 00:19:09,440
And he's a soldier, right. 
So in order to have a viable 

377
00:19:10,040 --> 00:19:12,840
future for the Strait of Hormuz,
for the world's economic 

378
00:19:12,840 --> 00:19:17,760
archery, you need a political 
agreement with the regime in 

379
00:19:17,760 --> 00:19:21,160
Tehran, either a new regime, 
which we don't have, or the 

380
00:19:21,160 --> 00:19:24,720
existing regime which feels 
embattled and emboldened and 

381
00:19:24,720 --> 00:19:28,200
knows that with very little, it 
can do an awful lot of economic 

382
00:19:28,200 --> 00:19:30,360
damage. 
So you need that agreement and 

383
00:19:30,360 --> 00:19:33,280
just going in and out, you know,
as the American military to ZAP 

384
00:19:33,280 --> 00:19:35,640
a few targets here and there. 
It's not going to make a huge 

385
00:19:35,640 --> 00:19:40,440
difference, just as, you know, 
unlike them who can make quite a

386
00:19:40,440 --> 00:19:43,600
big difference by going for the 
occasional tanker or not. 

387
00:19:43,600 --> 00:19:46,280
So whatever Trump says. 
And the trouble is that no one 

388
00:19:46,280 --> 00:19:48,640
really believing anything that 
comes out of his mouth anymore, 

389
00:19:48,920 --> 00:19:51,720
whether you're the markets or, 
you know, even his own cabinet 

390
00:19:51,720 --> 00:19:54,080
perhaps, although they're still 
showing, you know, acts of 

391
00:19:54,080 --> 00:19:56,360
fealty. 
At the end of the day, you need 

392
00:19:56,360 --> 00:19:59,480
to sit down with the very people
whose annihilation you try to 

393
00:19:59,480 --> 00:20:00,840
seek at the beginning of this 
war. 

394
00:20:01,160 --> 00:20:03,400
And I don't think that is a 
problem that Donald Trump is 

395
00:20:03,400 --> 00:20:05,480
fully. 
Come to terms with the end, 

396
00:20:05,480 --> 00:20:08,240
which feels like. 
A good moment to have a listen 

397
00:20:08,240 --> 00:20:12,720
to the conversation we've had 
with our guest, lawyer and 

398
00:20:12,720 --> 00:20:16,280
political scientist Anne Marie 
Slaughter, CEO of New America 

399
00:20:16,280 --> 00:20:19,720
and former State Department 
official under Hillary Clinton. 

400
00:20:20,880 --> 00:20:22,080
Anne Marie. 
Slaughter, thank you very much 

401
00:20:22,080 --> 00:20:24,560
for coming on Trump World. 
There's so much to talk about, 

402
00:20:24,560 --> 00:20:26,800
but let me start with this. 
You used to sit on a body called

403
00:20:26,800 --> 00:20:29,560
the Foreign Affairs Policy Board
under a different 

404
00:20:29,560 --> 00:20:32,760
administration, and that is one 
of the the jobs of the board is 

405
00:20:32,760 --> 00:20:36,000
to advise the Secretary of 
State, if I'm not mistaken. 

406
00:20:36,200 --> 00:20:39,520
If you were still on that board,
what would you be advising Marco

407
00:20:39,520 --> 00:20:42,160
Rubio to do right now? 
Right. 

408
00:20:42,160 --> 00:20:48,080
This moment I would be telling 
him to stop this war as fast as 

409
00:20:48,080 --> 00:20:51,280
possible. 
I think Thomas Friedman had the 

410
00:20:51,280 --> 00:20:57,040
right idea that both Iran and 
the US should give up what they 

411
00:20:57,040 --> 00:21:00,400
value most. 
We should not want regime change

412
00:21:01,560 --> 00:21:08,160
and should want the end of an 
Iranian nuclear weapon, and the 

413
00:21:08,160 --> 00:21:10,800
Iranians should want to give 
that up. 

414
00:21:10,800 --> 00:21:12,960
And we could end this war, you 
say? 

415
00:21:12,960 --> 00:21:18,040
That now that they have gone as 
far as they have gone, it 

416
00:21:18,040 --> 00:21:21,600
becomes quite difficult. 
So how do you extricate yourself

417
00:21:21,600 --> 00:21:24,240
at this point? 
And then also, what do you think

418
00:21:24,240 --> 00:21:26,480
they've got wrong about Iran in 
all of this? 

419
00:21:26,680 --> 00:21:28,600
Well. 
If Matt had asked me what I 

420
00:21:28,600 --> 00:21:33,960
would have advised the Secretary
of State in February, it would 

421
00:21:33,960 --> 00:21:36,720
very definitely have been not to
start this war. 

422
00:21:37,280 --> 00:21:41,400
And so, yes, we've gotten 
further than the administration 

423
00:21:41,400 --> 00:21:44,560
ever imagined. 
They radically underestimated 

424
00:21:44,560 --> 00:21:49,360
the power of the Iranian 
government to inflict pain and 

425
00:21:49,360 --> 00:21:52,480
indeed the the implications for 
the whole region. 

426
00:21:52,800 --> 00:21:57,680
So it is now really up more to 
Iran than to the US as to 

427
00:21:57,680 --> 00:22:01,560
whether we can stop this war. 
But I would say if the United 

428
00:22:01,560 --> 00:22:05,760
States has learned anything in 
the last 20 years, and I would 

429
00:22:05,760 --> 00:22:10,480
actually make that 30, it is 
that you cannot change a regime 

430
00:22:10,720 --> 00:22:15,400
by bombing from the air and 
honestly, even by sending troops

431
00:22:15,400 --> 00:22:19,200
in on the ground. 
The Iraq war was a extremely 

432
00:22:19,200 --> 00:22:24,680
expensive and costly enterprise.
Ultimately, Iraq has a better 

433
00:22:24,680 --> 00:22:27,120
government, but I don't think 
that's the way the Iraqis or the

434
00:22:27,320 --> 00:22:30,680
US would have wanted it. 
So I think you let the Iranian 

435
00:22:30,680 --> 00:22:34,000
people work with their 
government how they're going to.

436
00:22:34,120 --> 00:22:37,880
I wish we had not misled them to
the extent we have, but that is,

437
00:22:37,880 --> 00:22:40,120
in the end, in their hands. 
I wonder. 

438
00:22:40,120 --> 00:22:42,840
If that's part of the problem as
well, Anne Marie, because 

439
00:22:43,480 --> 00:22:46,200
although lots of people are 
saying now we shouldn't have 

440
00:22:46,200 --> 00:22:48,440
done this, they shouldn't have 
done it was a war of choice. 

441
00:22:48,440 --> 00:22:50,120
That is not a choice they should
have taken. 

442
00:22:50,400 --> 00:22:52,400
They never looked at the 
repercussions. 

443
00:22:52,400 --> 00:22:54,600
The Iranians are more resilient,
etcetera, etcetera. 

444
00:22:55,160 --> 00:22:59,000
I don't remember hearing the 
same voices of clamour from 

445
00:22:59,000 --> 00:23:02,520
European leaders, you know, or 
indeed from some congressional 

446
00:23:02,520 --> 00:23:06,800
leaders or from journalists, you
know, in January and in 

447
00:23:06,800 --> 00:23:09,760
February, when we still 
remembered what the Iranian 

448
00:23:09,760 --> 00:23:12,600
regime had done to thousands of 
protesters on the streets of 

449
00:23:12,600 --> 00:23:15,880
Tehran and other cities. 
I think either people didn't 

450
00:23:15,880 --> 00:23:19,280
take it seriously or they 
thought there was a kind of 

451
00:23:19,280 --> 00:23:21,600
moral cause because it was about
regime change. 

452
00:23:21,600 --> 00:23:24,280
And, you know, we all lined up 
to say how brutal the the 

453
00:23:24,280 --> 00:23:27,840
ayatollahs were. 
And I wonder whether we're, you 

454
00:23:27,840 --> 00:23:29,600
know, we were missing a trick 
there as well. 

455
00:23:29,840 --> 00:23:34,280
We didn't warn him enough that 
if you do this, this is going to

456
00:23:34,280 --> 00:23:35,640
happen. 
The only. 

457
00:23:35,640 --> 00:23:39,760
Warning this administration 
would have heated would have 

458
00:23:39,760 --> 00:23:42,960
been from the markets and we've 
seen that over and over again. 

459
00:23:42,960 --> 00:23:47,280
So had the markets started 
dropping the way they have 

460
00:23:47,280 --> 00:23:53,880
subsequently dropped at the very
mention of the idea of going in 

461
00:23:54,120 --> 00:23:59,800
with force to to enable regime 
change, I think then that would 

462
00:23:59,800 --> 00:24:03,720
have given everyone pause. 
And you, yes, in hindsight, it's

463
00:24:03,720 --> 00:24:06,960
easy to see, oh, well, the 
Iranians can control the Straits

464
00:24:06,960 --> 00:24:10,000
of Hormuz. 
The Iranians can use their 

465
00:24:10,000 --> 00:24:12,120
drones, which they've been 
supplying to the Russians for 

466
00:24:12,120 --> 00:24:16,960
use in Ukraine for years now to 
inflict damage on soft targets 

467
00:24:17,280 --> 00:24:20,240
around the the Middle East and 
in the Gulf states. 

468
00:24:20,640 --> 00:24:25,200
That was foreseeable, not 
necessarily foreseen, but you 

469
00:24:25,200 --> 00:24:28,400
might have thought that the 
markets, certainly the oil 

470
00:24:28,400 --> 00:24:34,480
traders, would have at least 
been more perspicacious in 

471
00:24:34,480 --> 00:24:37,080
trying to game it out than this 
White House had been. 

472
00:24:37,160 --> 00:24:41,360
But we're also leaving out 
Israel, and that is a key 

473
00:24:41,360 --> 00:24:43,680
factor. 
I mean, just just very briefly 

474
00:24:43,680 --> 00:24:49,120
on the markets, is, is part of 
the problem here that America or

475
00:24:49,120 --> 00:24:52,680
rather this administration 
became a victims, the victim of 

476
00:24:52,680 --> 00:24:55,040
its own success, both in 
Venezuela with a quick 

477
00:24:55,040 --> 00:24:59,600
extraction of Maduro, but also 
because the markets weathered 

478
00:24:59,600 --> 00:25:03,360
what should have been a really 
nasty year, 2025, really rather 

479
00:25:03,360 --> 00:25:05,600
well. 
I mean, the year to end, you 

480
00:25:05,640 --> 00:25:08,680
know, free trade around the 
world ended with with markets, 

481
00:25:09,040 --> 00:25:10,680
you know, whooping, you know, 
with joy. 

482
00:25:11,280 --> 00:25:13,800
And I just wonder if everyone 
took it all too lightly. 

483
00:25:13,800 --> 00:25:17,000
There was a sort of glibness 
about it all and in a sense, you

484
00:25:17,000 --> 00:25:18,880
know, or hubris, for want of a 
better word. 

485
00:25:19,120 --> 00:25:22,840
And that's what happened, yes. 
I start my days these days 

486
00:25:22,840 --> 00:25:29,120
reading the Ancients and hubris 
is definitely in in play here. 

487
00:25:29,400 --> 00:25:33,160
I think that is right. 
There have been many analysis of

488
00:25:33,280 --> 00:25:37,840
effectively the the 
disconnection between the state 

489
00:25:37,840 --> 00:25:41,640
of the markets and the state of 
the real economy by at least any

490
00:25:41,640 --> 00:25:47,400
traditional measures where the 
markets feed on confidence and 

491
00:25:47,520 --> 00:25:51,160
there's a sort of mass 
psychological effect or some 

492
00:25:51,160 --> 00:25:53,600
might say a mass psychosis at 
times. 

493
00:25:53,880 --> 00:25:58,720
And so in this case it even here
it's taken a while for people to

494
00:25:58,720 --> 00:26:03,160
really understand we could be on
the edge of global economic 

495
00:26:03,160 --> 00:26:06,800
cataclysm and for the markets to
start moving up and down 

496
00:26:06,800 --> 00:26:10,600
depending on how likely it looks
that we will end this war. 

497
00:26:10,840 --> 00:26:13,600
But I agree there was not that 
before. 

498
00:26:13,800 --> 00:26:22,000
I also do think that the success
of the Venezuelan extraction, if

499
00:26:22,000 --> 00:26:25,160
that's the way, that's certainly
the way the administration 

500
00:26:25,160 --> 00:26:29,240
thinks of it, convince the 
president that, you know, he 

501
00:26:29,240 --> 00:26:32,840
could just take action. 
And the one place I agree with 

502
00:26:32,840 --> 00:26:37,640
him is that the international 
system has been very ineffective

503
00:26:37,960 --> 00:26:41,120
at taking action. 
He also, you know, bombed Iran 

504
00:26:41,120 --> 00:26:43,840
with, with Israel in June 
without much impact. 

505
00:26:44,280 --> 00:26:48,200
So I I agree that there were not
though sufficient counterweights

506
00:26:48,200 --> 00:26:51,400
in advance, not. 
Just Venezuela and the June 

507
00:26:51,400 --> 00:26:53,600
strikes. 
But even back to Soleimani, when

508
00:26:53,600 --> 00:26:56,880
you listen to Donald Trump, he 
sees these as one successful 

509
00:26:56,880 --> 00:26:59,440
thing after the other. 
I mean, he right now is 

510
00:26:59,480 --> 00:27:04,120
absolutely furious with NATO 
allies in a way that we've not 

511
00:27:04,120 --> 00:27:07,040
really seen presidents talk for.
I mean, I don't think we've ever

512
00:27:07,040 --> 00:27:09,240
seen a president attack a 
British Prime Minister in the 

513
00:27:09,240 --> 00:27:12,960
way Donald Trump has been doing.
When you speak to the NATO 

514
00:27:13,000 --> 00:27:14,880
allies, when you speak to the 
people in the British 

515
00:27:14,880 --> 00:27:18,400
government, they say, well, you 
know, they can't just expect us 

516
00:27:18,400 --> 00:27:20,480
to go into a war where we 
haven't been told anything about

517
00:27:20,480 --> 00:27:22,640
planning, etcetera. 
They're very holding, you know, 

518
00:27:22,640 --> 00:27:26,840
they're holding firm in their 
positions, But just how bad do 

519
00:27:26,840 --> 00:27:30,920
you think that situation is? 
Do you think post Trump it will 

520
00:27:30,920 --> 00:27:34,160
come back and those 
relationships will be rebuilt as

521
00:27:34,160 --> 00:27:36,040
they were before? 
And I'm just really interested 

522
00:27:36,040 --> 00:27:39,600
in what you think of Marco Rubio
in all of this, because British 

523
00:27:39,600 --> 00:27:42,680
officials usually say behind the
scenes, Rubio's very pragmatic. 

524
00:27:42,920 --> 00:27:45,840
But right now he's talking like 
Trump about NATO as well. 

525
00:27:46,040 --> 00:27:48,680
Well, the. 
First thing I would say is that 

526
00:27:49,560 --> 00:27:54,680
the gap between what Rubio and 
others, but particularly Rubio's

527
00:27:54,680 --> 00:27:57,800
say publicly and what he might 
say privately are very 

528
00:27:57,800 --> 00:27:59,560
different. 
And you really saw that at the 

529
00:27:59,560 --> 00:28:02,840
Munich Security Conference, 
where he effectively gave a 

530
00:28:02,840 --> 00:28:07,240
speech that said we are about a 
Western heritage of white 

531
00:28:07,240 --> 00:28:10,680
Christian nationalism and that's
what we'll support in Europe. 

532
00:28:10,680 --> 00:28:14,360
And the Europeans gave him a 
standing ovation for which you 

533
00:28:14,360 --> 00:28:17,920
have to conclude that they are 
hearing different things in 

534
00:28:17,920 --> 00:28:20,240
private. 
And he has traditionally been an

535
00:28:20,240 --> 00:28:24,360
internationalist on NATO. 
I don't think there will ever be

536
00:28:24,360 --> 00:28:30,440
a going back to the NATO of the 
20th century or of the 1st 20 

537
00:28:30,440 --> 00:28:34,440
years, say 24 years of the 21st 
century. 

538
00:28:34,840 --> 00:28:42,440
I think the sense that the 
United States is changing 

539
00:28:42,800 --> 00:28:46,200
demographically and hence 
politically, technologically, 

540
00:28:46,200 --> 00:28:50,880
that this century we will be 
looking South to where 30% of 

541
00:28:50,880 --> 00:28:55,320
our population is coming from 
already under 30 and soon the 

542
00:28:55,320 --> 00:28:58,320
whole population as much as we 
look east. 

543
00:28:58,560 --> 00:29:03,240
And indeed, W that means NATO is
still important for a direct 

544
00:29:03,240 --> 00:29:05,320
attack. 
And I don't think the president 

545
00:29:05,320 --> 00:29:08,520
can successfully pull out of 
NATO before the midterms and 

546
00:29:08,520 --> 00:29:12,320
with this Senate. 
But the idea that the United 

547
00:29:12,320 --> 00:29:16,840
States was the anchor of NATO 
and the Europeans could rest 

548
00:29:16,840 --> 00:29:21,040
secure under the the nuclear 
umbrella, which there was always

549
00:29:21,040 --> 00:29:24,360
a wither NATO question that's 
not coming back. 

550
00:29:24,360 --> 00:29:28,080
The the the alliance will have 
to be repurposed for a very 

551
00:29:28,080 --> 00:29:29,280
different world. 
Anne Marie. 

552
00:29:29,280 --> 00:29:32,840
Just on the very narrow question
of our relations on this island 

553
00:29:32,840 --> 00:29:36,280
with Washington, I mean, the 
king is going in a couple of 

554
00:29:36,280 --> 00:29:38,520
weeks and Uska will be there to 
cover his visit. 

555
00:29:39,360 --> 00:29:42,080
We know that Donald Trump loves 
royalty. 

556
00:29:42,080 --> 00:29:44,000
He loves the king. 
He loved the queen. 

557
00:29:44,000 --> 00:29:46,640
His mother loved the queen. 
He's had two sleepovers at at 

558
00:29:46,960 --> 00:29:49,680
Windsor Castle. 
I mean, this is this really 

559
00:29:49,680 --> 00:29:51,840
matters to him. 
So if you were the British Prime

560
00:29:51,840 --> 00:29:54,840
Minister, you know, considering 
how much he's been insulted by 

561
00:29:54,840 --> 00:29:58,080
Donald Trump and how much the 
British public absolutely can't 

562
00:29:58,080 --> 00:30:01,000
stand the man, would you send 
the king? 

563
00:30:01,120 --> 00:30:03,480
This is your, you know, your 
your most effective diplomatic 

564
00:30:03,480 --> 00:30:05,760
weapon. 
And if you had to send the king,

565
00:30:05,920 --> 00:30:08,360
what would you get him to say? 
Oh my goodness. 

566
00:30:11,320 --> 00:30:15,640
An American should never presume
to try to advise the King. 

567
00:30:15,760 --> 00:30:17,680
Nobody. 
That you should exactly do that 

568
00:30:17,680 --> 00:30:19,880
because, you know, you've been 
around that block with us a few 

569
00:30:19,880 --> 00:30:24,120
times some time ago, but you 
know, it's exactly, precisely 

570
00:30:24,120 --> 00:30:28,400
because you're a Republic that 
cherishes monarchy in a weird 

571
00:30:28,400 --> 00:30:30,000
kind of way. 
What do you think? 

572
00:30:30,240 --> 00:30:34,080
You know, what could the king 
say in terms of reminding the 

573
00:30:34,080 --> 00:30:37,880
president, his host of these 
values which are, which are so 

574
00:30:37,880 --> 00:30:40,120
valuable that have been trampled
on the. 

575
00:30:40,120 --> 00:30:44,680
King is in a particularly tricky
position because it is the 250th

576
00:30:44,720 --> 00:30:48,160
anniversary of the Declaration 
of Independence. 

577
00:30:48,160 --> 00:30:52,360
And I remember the 200th 
anniversary when when Queen 

578
00:30:52,360 --> 00:30:55,600
Elizabeth and Prince Philip came
to Washington and were hosted in

579
00:30:55,600 --> 00:30:58,040
the White House. 
And I remember thinking then, 

580
00:30:58,040 --> 00:31:04,160
well, that's an odd way to 
celebrate a 200th anniversary of

581
00:31:04,160 --> 00:31:08,360
breaking from the mad King, from
the the British who were 

582
00:31:08,960 --> 00:31:11,360
imposing taxation without 
representation. 

583
00:31:11,640 --> 00:31:15,200
But I think what I that would be
the frame for the visit if the 

584
00:31:15,200 --> 00:31:19,080
visit goes ahead. 
And I think just knowing a 

585
00:31:19,080 --> 00:31:22,760
little about the head of state 
versus the Prime Minister and 

586
00:31:22,760 --> 00:31:28,000
the desire of the king not to be
publicly involved in politics, 

587
00:31:28,400 --> 00:31:33,560
the framing for the visit should
be the 250th and should be, you 

588
00:31:33,560 --> 00:31:37,600
know, we, we, we parted 250 
years ago and we have fought 

589
00:31:37,600 --> 00:31:41,800
together for those values 
critically sits certainly 

590
00:31:41,800 --> 00:31:45,160
throughout the 20th century and 
into the 21st. 

591
00:31:45,600 --> 00:31:50,840
And in the end, that is the 
strength of the United States. 

592
00:31:50,840 --> 00:31:54,200
It is not transactional deals 
around the world. 

593
00:31:54,200 --> 00:31:58,440
It is the values we stand for, 
which honestly, at least the way

594
00:31:58,440 --> 00:32:02,120
I learned my history, go back to
the Magna Carta, even if we had 

595
00:32:02,120 --> 00:32:05,800
rather a rupture in 1776 and. 
Marie, can I ask you about 

596
00:32:05,800 --> 00:32:08,760
China? 
And China has kind of why did 

597
00:32:08,760 --> 00:32:12,080
it's time to some degree when 
it's come to the Iran war, but 

598
00:32:12,080 --> 00:32:14,800
it's kind of stepping forward 
now trying to take this 

599
00:32:14,800 --> 00:32:17,640
peacemaker role. 
It's come up with five points 

600
00:32:17,640 --> 00:32:21,240
with Pakistan. 
What do you make of both what 

601
00:32:21,240 --> 00:32:24,680
they're saying at the moment and
also China's role during this 

602
00:32:24,680 --> 00:32:28,040
and likely afterwards? 
I would say that the 

603
00:32:28,640 --> 00:32:34,440
administration has handed China 
a gift that just keeps on 

604
00:32:34,440 --> 00:32:36,440
giving. 
From the moment this 

605
00:32:36,440 --> 00:32:44,200
administration took office in 
2025 and started laying waste to

606
00:32:44,200 --> 00:32:47,720
the international order that the
United States, the British and 

607
00:32:47,720 --> 00:32:53,240
others had had created in 1945, 
China just needs to sit back and

608
00:32:53,240 --> 00:32:56,640
let us shoot ourselves, both 
feet, both legs. 

609
00:32:57,000 --> 00:33:02,800
And this is the latest example 
of where, you know, countries 

610
00:33:02,800 --> 00:33:07,520
around the world are looking at 
this thinking you are inflicting

611
00:33:07,760 --> 00:33:09,880
tremendous economic damage on 
us. 

612
00:33:09,880 --> 00:33:15,840
This is what started actually 
with with in 2022 with the Biden

613
00:33:15,840 --> 00:33:19,000
administration, where in 
responding to Ukraine, to the 

614
00:33:19,000 --> 00:33:22,680
Russian invasion of Ukraine, we 
did not think through what's 

615
00:33:22,680 --> 00:33:25,880
going to happen with the 
sanctions, with what happens 

616
00:33:25,880 --> 00:33:28,960
with food prices and fertilizer 
prices for the rest of the 

617
00:33:28,960 --> 00:33:30,800
world. 
And much of the rest of the 

618
00:33:30,800 --> 00:33:33,840
world looked at that and said, 
it's a European war, it's not 

619
00:33:33,840 --> 00:33:35,760
ours. 
The Biden administration was 

620
00:33:35,760 --> 00:33:39,400
very surprised. 
China stepped in, took advantage

621
00:33:39,400 --> 00:33:41,480
of what it could sell and what 
it could buy. 

622
00:33:41,800 --> 00:33:45,800
And now you really are looking 
at, you know, global, a global 

623
00:33:45,800 --> 00:33:47,560
energy crisis. 
And when you look at what's 

624
00:33:47,560 --> 00:33:52,480
happening in Asia, China has 
both a reserve and a you know, 

625
00:33:52,520 --> 00:33:56,640
this is a reckless madman 
destroying the global order. 

626
00:33:56,640 --> 00:33:59,360
We stand for stability and 
sovereignty. 

627
00:33:59,960 --> 00:34:03,560
No mention of values, or at 
least not the values that we 

628
00:34:03,560 --> 00:34:06,760
have often fought for the human 
rights, the the and and 

629
00:34:06,760 --> 00:34:10,880
liberties, but of stability, 
development and calm Amory. 

630
00:34:10,880 --> 00:34:13,560
Like many of us, you were very 
impressed by Mark Carney's 

631
00:34:13,560 --> 00:34:15,520
speech at Davos about the 
rupture. 

632
00:34:15,920 --> 00:34:18,920
And and of course, he then laid 
out this rather vague but, you 

633
00:34:18,920 --> 00:34:21,600
know, sort of inspiring plan for
the middle powers of the world 

634
00:34:22,080 --> 00:34:23,800
to get together. 
And you've written extensively 

635
00:34:23,800 --> 00:34:26,080
about that. 
I just wonder what you think 

636
00:34:26,080 --> 00:34:30,840
Realistically, the hope for US 
middle powers is when even the 

637
00:34:30,840 --> 00:34:34,480
middle powers, the middle mini 
powers of the European Union, 

638
00:34:34,639 --> 00:34:38,239
find it difficult to to sing 
from a common song sheet. 

639
00:34:38,400 --> 00:34:41,000
Yes. 
And I must say I've been reading

640
00:34:41,000 --> 00:34:44,719
recently, Britain and France are
major middle powers. 

641
00:34:45,159 --> 00:34:49,199
They are not great powers major.
Middle Germany is major, major 

642
00:34:49,199 --> 00:34:51,840
middle, you know, and Italy's 
minor middle. 

643
00:34:52,280 --> 00:34:55,080
Exactly. 
Any power that is neither China 

644
00:34:55,719 --> 00:35:01,160
nor the US, maybe Russia or nor 
a small island state, everybody 

645
00:35:01,160 --> 00:35:05,480
else qualifies. 
I do think that the middle 

646
00:35:05,480 --> 00:35:10,160
powers have far more power than 
they realize economically. 

647
00:35:10,160 --> 00:35:14,920
So if you look at every state in
the European Union and add 

648
00:35:14,920 --> 00:35:20,440
Switzerland, Norway and the UK, 
then add Canada, Japan, South 

649
00:35:20,440 --> 00:35:23,440
Korea and Australia, and that's 
leaving out powers in the global

650
00:35:23,440 --> 00:35:28,200
S, just in the North. 
Those powers control 42% of 

651
00:35:28,200 --> 00:35:31,200
world GDP. 
That's a lot, right? 

652
00:35:31,200 --> 00:35:36,720
So if they could sing from the 
same song sheet economically to 

653
00:35:36,720 --> 00:35:40,880
say, you know, this war has to 
stop now or we don't buy or sell

654
00:35:40,880 --> 00:35:44,240
or from, from either of 
certainly not from the United 

655
00:35:44,240 --> 00:35:48,000
States, from other warring 
powers, we are going to be a 

656
00:35:48,000 --> 00:35:50,720
bloc. 
They have a lot of economic 

657
00:35:50,720 --> 00:35:54,200
power and more military power 
than you might think at first 

658
00:35:54,200 --> 00:35:57,320
class glance, I think at least 
enough to defend themselves. 

659
00:35:58,040 --> 00:36:03,000
That won't happen until there is
an even bigger crisis than this 

660
00:36:03,000 --> 00:36:04,840
one. 
When I write about middle 

661
00:36:04,840 --> 00:36:08,600
powers, what I'm basically 
arguing is this is like 1941 

662
00:36:08,600 --> 00:36:11,360
with the Atlantic Charter. 
Obviously there are differences.

663
00:36:11,400 --> 00:36:17,000
It is not a global war. 
But until you have a crisis that

664
00:36:17,000 --> 00:36:21,960
convinces everyone things must 
change, that overrides normal 

665
00:36:21,960 --> 00:36:24,360
politics. 
For instance, if the United 

666
00:36:24,360 --> 00:36:27,360
States or another power were to 
use a nuclear weapon, I think 

667
00:36:27,360 --> 00:36:32,040
that would do it with that. 
Or we may yet get a climate 

668
00:36:32,040 --> 00:36:36,200
crisis where millions of people 
die in a heat wave, something of

669
00:36:36,200 --> 00:36:39,480
that magnitude. 
Then suddenly people, 

670
00:36:39,480 --> 00:36:43,440
politicians will realize this is
not normal or these are not 

671
00:36:43,440 --> 00:36:46,120
normal times. 
Until then, I think Prime 

672
00:36:46,120 --> 00:36:51,840
Minister Carney and others can 
build relationships, create mini

673
00:36:51,840 --> 00:36:57,840
lateral coalitions for specific 
purposes, and plan and wait and 

674
00:36:57,840 --> 00:37:00,480
be ready to seize that moment 
when it comes. 

675
00:37:00,600 --> 00:37:02,000
But the. 
Sad thing is that you'd 

676
00:37:02,000 --> 00:37:04,800
obviously we don't want that 
moment ever to come because it 

677
00:37:04,800 --> 00:37:07,320
would be a tragedy on a massive 
scale. 

678
00:37:07,320 --> 00:37:10,440
But without that moment you 
can't get real change. 

679
00:37:10,840 --> 00:37:13,560
I wonder whether the way the 
world is being handled or 

680
00:37:13,560 --> 00:37:17,480
mishandled at the moment by a 
number of players, you'll say we

681
00:37:17,480 --> 00:37:20,960
are setting ourselves up for 
that kind of catastrophe that 

682
00:37:20,960 --> 00:37:22,680
will finally concentrate our 
minds. 

683
00:37:22,800 --> 00:37:24,480
I. 
Think that moment will come? 

684
00:37:24,560 --> 00:37:29,640
It could be an AI moment, but it
will be something cataclysmic. 

685
00:37:29,680 --> 00:37:33,400
And yes, absolutely, we don't 
want that moment and we have to 

686
00:37:33,400 --> 00:37:36,680
hope that moment is not so 
cataclysmic that we really have 

687
00:37:36,680 --> 00:37:40,080
done ourselves in. 
But traditionally, if you look 

688
00:37:40,080 --> 00:37:43,080
at the history of international 
law, you look at the Geneva 

689
00:37:43,080 --> 00:37:46,560
Conventions, you look at the 
United Nations itself first, the

690
00:37:46,560 --> 00:37:51,880
League of Nations, really from 
1815 forward or from 1648 

691
00:37:51,880 --> 00:37:57,600
forward, it has been dramatic 
wars and other kinds of 

692
00:37:57,600 --> 00:38:02,840
associated crises that have 
created the momentum and the 

693
00:38:02,840 --> 00:38:05,360
moment for real change. 
Anne Marie. 

694
00:38:05,360 --> 00:38:07,720
Can I ask you about the two wars
we're seeing at the moment, 

695
00:38:08,640 --> 00:38:11,120
Russia and Ukraine, as well as 
Iran? 

696
00:38:11,520 --> 00:38:13,800
On Ukraine, the language coming 
out of America is getting more 

697
00:38:13,800 --> 00:38:16,320
and more negative. 
You know, this idea that it's 

698
00:38:16,320 --> 00:38:18,200
not our war, stepping away from 
it. 

699
00:38:18,200 --> 00:38:22,160
How worried are you about that? 
And on Iran, Donald Trump 

700
00:38:22,160 --> 00:38:25,560
clearly wants out. 
He wants out quite quickly. 

701
00:38:26,120 --> 00:38:28,640
Do you think that's the 
direction we're heading in with?

702
00:38:28,640 --> 00:38:33,880
Ukraine, even in 2022, from the 
stage of the Munich Security 

703
00:38:33,880 --> 00:38:38,200
Conference, Americans 
acknowledged that that Europe, 

704
00:38:38,200 --> 00:38:42,000
including Britain, the EU and, 
and, and Britain and others, 

705
00:38:42,280 --> 00:38:44,440
we're doing much more than the 
United States. 

706
00:38:44,440 --> 00:38:47,680
And that was not just 
economically, that was also 

707
00:38:47,680 --> 00:38:52,000
supplying weapons. 
Now, essentially what the United

708
00:38:52,000 --> 00:38:55,800
States is doing is selling 
weapons to the Europeans to give

709
00:38:55,800 --> 00:38:58,840
to Ukraine. 
We're unlikely to stop doing 

710
00:38:58,840 --> 00:39:04,800
that effectively. 
We have said to Ukraine and to 

711
00:39:04,800 --> 00:39:07,600
Europe, you're not completely on
your own. 

712
00:39:07,600 --> 00:39:09,880
We're still supplying 
intelligence and other things. 

713
00:39:10,080 --> 00:39:11,960
But this is going to be up to 
you. 

714
00:39:12,320 --> 00:39:17,600
And Europe has every reason to 
do what is effectively a winning

715
00:39:17,600 --> 00:39:21,080
strategy long term. 
As long as Russia's not winning,

716
00:39:21,320 --> 00:39:26,400
it's losing. 
Russia is losing 30,000 soldiers

717
00:39:26,440 --> 00:39:29,080
a month, which is a staggering 
number. 

718
00:39:29,480 --> 00:39:33,320
And as long as Ukraine can keep 
inflicting that kind of damage, 

719
00:39:33,320 --> 00:39:35,760
I think you can hold out for 
quite a long time. 

720
00:39:36,040 --> 00:39:40,040
So I'm, I'm less, I don't think 
the US holds the key to the end 

721
00:39:40,040 --> 00:39:44,880
of the Ukraine war in Iran. 
I think it's pretty clear this 

722
00:39:44,880 --> 00:39:48,760
administration wants out. 
It's signaling in every way. 

723
00:39:49,240 --> 00:39:52,240
But again, it's not going to be 
up to us. 

724
00:39:52,240 --> 00:39:57,440
It may be that there are enough 
pragmatists in some kind of 

725
00:39:57,440 --> 00:40:00,840
leadership in Iran who have not 
been assassinated by the 

726
00:40:00,840 --> 00:40:05,520
Israelis to do a deal, but you 
need some very good 

727
00:40:05,520 --> 00:40:10,400
intermediaries and and some 
honestly, some good fortune. 

728
00:40:10,400 --> 00:40:12,400
Anne Marie. 
I just want to finish off with 

729
00:40:12,400 --> 00:40:14,520
one final question, which is 
this. 

730
00:40:14,920 --> 00:40:17,440
I know that Donald Trump wants 
out of this Iran war that he 

731
00:40:17,440 --> 00:40:18,840
himself started with the 
Israelis. 

732
00:40:18,840 --> 00:40:22,560
But let's say he can't get out 
smoothly or quickly or 

733
00:40:22,560 --> 00:40:25,920
elegantly, and he gets stuck. 
And maybe Kharg Island turns out

734
00:40:25,920 --> 00:40:29,160
to be a bit of a trap for the US
Marines, and the Israelis are 

735
00:40:29,160 --> 00:40:31,200
still upset that there isn't 
genuine regime change. 

736
00:40:31,720 --> 00:40:35,920
Is it conceivable in your mind, 
even in, you know, the the 

737
00:40:35,920 --> 00:40:39,040
darkest kind of reaches of it, 
that in this world where 

738
00:40:39,040 --> 00:40:42,840
everything seems to be shaken 
up, Donald Trump or the Israelis

739
00:40:42,840 --> 00:40:45,960
could use a nuclear weapon to 
try and do something that they 

740
00:40:45,960 --> 00:40:48,160
couldn't do by conventional 
military means? 

741
00:40:48,400 --> 00:40:51,400
I have. 
Learned never to say that 

742
00:40:51,400 --> 00:40:56,720
something is inconceivable with 
this this administration, 

743
00:40:56,720 --> 00:41:00,240
including their very election 
back in 2016. 

744
00:41:00,240 --> 00:41:07,040
So it is not conceivable to me. 
I do think the nuclear taboo is,

745
00:41:07,120 --> 00:41:13,160
is that crisis where suddenly 
the American people turn on the 

746
00:41:13,160 --> 00:41:17,120
administration and nations come 
together again. 

747
00:41:17,320 --> 00:41:20,800
When Putin suggested that he was
going to use a quote, UN quote, 

748
00:41:20,800 --> 00:41:24,360
tactical nuclear weapon in 
Ukraine, a weapon that would 

749
00:41:24,360 --> 00:41:27,280
still be far greater than the 
bombs dropped on Hiroshima and 

750
00:41:27,440 --> 00:41:32,760
Nagasaki, Suddenly the Chinese 
moved into, you know, swung into

751
00:41:32,760 --> 00:41:35,680
action and essentially, as far 
as we can tell, let Putin know 

752
00:41:35,680 --> 00:41:38,560
that would be the end of Chinese
support and that would be the 

753
00:41:38,560 --> 00:41:43,480
end of the war. 
So I, I truly think that that 

754
00:41:43,680 --> 00:41:49,120
that would be cataclysmic 
politically, both nationally and

755
00:41:49,120 --> 00:41:56,200
globally, but I would, I think 
it'd be folly to rule anything 

756
00:41:56,200 --> 00:41:57,960
out with the man in the White 
House. 

757
00:41:58,240 --> 00:42:01,600
So you, when you said it's 
conceivable, you meant it's not 

758
00:42:01,600 --> 00:42:03,080
inconceivable. 
That's correct. 

759
00:42:03,280 --> 00:42:05,160
Anne Marie Slaughter, thank you 
very much for your time. 

760
00:42:06,280 --> 00:42:09,480
That was Anne Marie Slaughter. 
We leave Trump world this week 

761
00:42:09,480 --> 00:42:12,960
at what feels to me like quite a
potentially large turning point 

762
00:42:12,960 --> 00:42:17,440
not just for the war in Iran, 
but the geopolitics much more 

763
00:42:17,440 --> 00:42:20,480
broadly. 
Beyond that, a moment where and 

764
00:42:20,480 --> 00:42:23,040
if you agree with this, Matt, 
where we're seeing the shifting 

765
00:42:23,040 --> 00:42:26,360
plates from the power of 
America, possibly to the power 

766
00:42:26,360 --> 00:42:30,480
and peacemaking nature of China.
Let's see where that goes. 

767
00:42:30,720 --> 00:42:34,240
A moment where Donald Trump is 
looking for a way out, but then 

768
00:42:34,240 --> 00:42:37,320
we'll have to argue to the 
American public that he has 

769
00:42:37,400 --> 00:42:41,320
achieved his objectives and it 
sounds like that could be quite 

770
00:42:41,320 --> 00:42:43,200
difficult for him to do. 
What do you think? 

771
00:42:43,440 --> 00:42:44,240
Well. 
Yes. 

772
00:42:44,440 --> 00:42:46,520
And first of all, for us, I 
think, you know, to go from the 

773
00:42:46,520 --> 00:42:49,000
embrace of Uncle Sam, which 
we're all used to, to the 

774
00:42:49,000 --> 00:42:53,040
embrace, the slightly, the 
Stelia embrace of Uncle she is 

775
00:42:53,040 --> 00:42:55,560
something that perhaps, you 
know, we we haven't really got 

776
00:42:55,560 --> 00:42:58,720
our own head around, but that's 
maybe where we're heading in 

777
00:42:58,720 --> 00:43:00,240
terms of, you know, is this a 
key moment? 

778
00:43:00,240 --> 00:43:01,840
I mean, every week seems like a 
key moment. 

779
00:43:02,080 --> 00:43:05,120
I suspect to Nurska that Donald 
Trump will not remember this 

780
00:43:05,120 --> 00:43:07,880
week as a week in which he 
really, really, genuinely, 

781
00:43:07,880 --> 00:43:09,440
seriously threatened to pull out
of NATO. 

782
00:43:09,880 --> 00:43:13,000
But the week in which his great 
beautiful project of the big 

783
00:43:13,000 --> 00:43:16,880
beautiful ballroom died a very 
sudden legal death because a 

784
00:43:16,880 --> 00:43:18,920
judge said he shouldn't have 
done it. 

785
00:43:18,920 --> 00:43:20,960
He couldn't. 
You know, you can't, you know, 

786
00:43:20,960 --> 00:43:24,360
take down this, this, this 
listed building that is the 

787
00:43:24,360 --> 00:43:26,000
White House or bits of it. 
What's the? 

788
00:43:26,000 --> 00:43:28,040
Judge going to do rebuild it 
well. 

789
00:43:28,040 --> 00:43:29,000
Exactly. 
This is it. 

790
00:43:29,000 --> 00:43:32,080
What's the judge going to do? 
But remember, on one of the 

791
00:43:32,080 --> 00:43:36,320
trips back from Mar a Lago to to
Washington in, you know, Air 

792
00:43:36,320 --> 00:43:38,840
Force One, he went to the back 
to talk to the press and he 

793
00:43:38,840 --> 00:43:41,040
suddenly pulled out these 
enormous cards of what the 

794
00:43:41,040 --> 00:43:42,720
ballroom will look like. 
It was so. 

795
00:43:42,720 --> 00:43:45,520
Surreal that moment, Matt. 
So surreal. 

796
00:43:45,520 --> 00:43:48,440
He's standing there talking 
about this unbelievably 

797
00:43:48,440 --> 00:43:51,400
consequential war, and then he 
suddenly like, hang on a minute,

798
00:43:51,640 --> 00:43:54,760
let me just pull this out. 
There was another moment when a 

799
00:43:54,760 --> 00:43:58,920
presenter on Fox News asked 
Donald Trump, do we know whether

800
00:43:58,920 --> 00:44:02,280
or not the people in Iran are 
getting food and water? 

801
00:44:02,640 --> 00:44:04,760
And Donald Trump went, oh, yeah,
yeah, I'll tell you. 

802
00:44:04,760 --> 00:44:08,440
But first, do you remember when 
we had lunch in Trump Tower? 

803
00:44:08,440 --> 00:44:11,040
Do you mind me saying that 
you're even more beautiful than 

804
00:44:11,040 --> 00:44:13,040
you were then? 
I feel like I have walked 

805
00:44:13,040 --> 00:44:14,880
through the looking glass. 
It is surreal. 

806
00:44:15,640 --> 00:44:17,800
Or when he went on about Sharpie
pens. 

807
00:44:17,800 --> 00:44:20,000
Do you remember that? 
In the mouth and the Sharpie. 

808
00:44:20,000 --> 00:44:21,440
Boss said never happened 
anything. 

809
00:44:21,440 --> 00:44:24,840
The Sharpie pens, I mean, look, 
you know, just as having met the

810
00:44:24,840 --> 00:44:26,600
guy, that's what he does in 
conversation. 

811
00:44:26,720 --> 00:44:30,800
He likes to call it the weave, 
but the weave and a time of war 

812
00:44:30,800 --> 00:44:34,160
when people are hanging on your 
every word can be very 

813
00:44:34,160 --> 00:44:37,040
perplexing indeed. 
I think let's stop weaving then,

814
00:44:37,040 --> 00:44:38,400
right? 
And let's shut this down. 

815
00:44:39,520 --> 00:44:42,400
Trump Weld. 
Trump Weld has woven out for 

816
00:44:42,400 --> 00:44:46,360
this week another extraordinary 
week in American politics. 

817
00:44:46,760 --> 00:44:49,040
And of course, what happens in 
Washington doesn't stay in 

818
00:44:49,040 --> 00:44:51,640
Washington, does it? 
Not even you, I will be. 

819
00:44:51,640 --> 00:44:54,800
Back in Washington, DC next 
week, getting ready for that big

820
00:44:55,040 --> 00:44:56,760
visit from the King. 
I'm so. 

821
00:44:56,760 --> 00:44:57,840
Jealous. 
I'm so jealous. 

822
00:44:57,920 --> 00:45:00,920
I will be here in London 
watching you, watching him 

823
00:45:01,120 --> 00:45:03,320
watching them. 
That's it from Trumbold. 

824
00:45:03,840 --> 00:45:04,560
Thanks for listening.
