1 00:00:00,040 --> 00:00:02,760 Right now, what the US is doing is hitting, you know, a boat 2 00:00:02,760 --> 00:00:05,000 here, a boat there. I don't think that'll do it. 3 00:00:05,280 --> 00:00:08,680 I think you need to hit Venezuela itself for the 4 00:00:08,680 --> 00:00:11,080 military to think, OK, the game's really over. 5 00:00:11,240 --> 00:00:13,440 Maduro is going down. I don't want to go with them. 6 00:00:19,080 --> 00:00:21,400 Hello and welcome to this edition of Trump World. 7 00:00:21,480 --> 00:00:25,480 I'm Matt Fry in Washington. And I'm Anishka Astana in 8 00:00:25,480 --> 00:00:28,920 Trinidad and Tobago. I'm not just here for the 9 00:00:28,920 --> 00:00:30,600 sunshine. I'll explain why I'm here in a 10 00:00:30,600 --> 00:00:34,000 minute, but I just wanted to encourage you to subscribe if 11 00:00:34,000 --> 00:00:36,160 you're enjoying this show. Trump World. 12 00:00:36,160 --> 00:00:39,280 And if you do or even if you don't, but especially if you do, 13 00:00:39,280 --> 00:00:41,760 you will find out what we're speaking about this week, and 14 00:00:41,760 --> 00:00:46,240 that is the extraordinary gunship diplomacy happening off 15 00:00:46,240 --> 00:00:49,400 the coast of Venezuela courtesy of the American Navy. 16 00:00:49,600 --> 00:00:52,840 Now, while we've been focusing on trade tariffs and Epstein and 17 00:00:52,840 --> 00:00:56,320 all these other things, there's been this build up of American 18 00:00:56,320 --> 00:00:58,560 military force off the coast of Venezuela. 19 00:00:58,840 --> 00:01:02,280 And the question is, is this gunship diplomacy, if it's 20 00:01:02,280 --> 00:01:05,720 diplomacy at all, designed to get rid of the regime, The 21 00:01:05,720 --> 00:01:09,080 President Nicolas Maduro of Venezuela, something that Trump 22 00:01:09,080 --> 00:01:12,240 tried to do in his first term, but this time around, he's using 23 00:01:12,240 --> 00:01:14,360 military force or the threat of it. 24 00:01:14,600 --> 00:01:18,760 And he's very motivated by his Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, 25 00:01:18,960 --> 00:01:22,840 for whom this is a pet project. The reason I'm in Trinidad and 26 00:01:22,840 --> 00:01:26,480 Tobago is we can't actually get into Venezuela right now. 27 00:01:26,480 --> 00:01:29,320 Access for journalists is very, very restricted. 28 00:01:29,720 --> 00:01:33,440 Trinidad and Tobago is Venezuela's closest neighbor on 29 00:01:33,440 --> 00:01:37,160 the Caribbean side. I actually got on a boat staying 30 00:01:37,160 --> 00:01:40,520 very close to shore in a safe place and went as close as I 31 00:01:40,520 --> 00:01:41,800 could. And you could really see how 32 00:01:41,800 --> 00:01:44,920 close Venezuela was just 7 miles across the water. 33 00:01:44,920 --> 00:01:47,760 And the reason I'm here is that all of this is having a huge, 34 00:01:47,840 --> 00:01:50,480 huge impact on Trinidad and Tobago. 35 00:01:50,480 --> 00:01:54,160 The Prime Minister here, too much anger across the country is 36 00:01:54,160 --> 00:01:56,360 supporting what Donald Trump is doing. 37 00:01:56,360 --> 00:01:59,440 But we've got a situation where there are literally bodies 38 00:01:59,440 --> 00:02:02,920 washing up onto the shores of Trinidad and Tobago. 39 00:02:02,920 --> 00:02:06,520 Trinidadian nationals have been killed by these strikes. 40 00:02:06,520 --> 00:02:09,960 We have the 21st strike on a boat on Saturday. 41 00:02:09,960 --> 00:02:13,720 I think there are 83 people who have now died as a result of 42 00:02:13,720 --> 00:02:15,720 that. People very, very clear to me 43 00:02:15,920 --> 00:02:19,160 that this is a breach of international law. 44 00:02:19,840 --> 00:02:22,240 America isn't part of the International Criminal Court, 45 00:02:22,240 --> 00:02:26,240 but Trinidad and Tobago and the UK are, and there's implications 46 00:02:26,240 --> 00:02:28,320 for that which we will come to when we discuss this. 47 00:02:28,320 --> 00:02:32,000 It has been a really fascinating few days talking to people here. 48 00:02:32,360 --> 00:02:34,720 And the reason why people are watching what America is doing, 49 00:02:34,800 --> 00:02:37,720 what Trump is doing with Venezuela very closely, is 1 50 00:02:38,040 --> 00:02:42,200 Venezuela, believe it or not, has the the biggest oil reserves 51 00:02:42,280 --> 00:02:45,080 on the planet of any country bigger than Saudi Arabia. 52 00:02:45,080 --> 00:02:48,760 It is also the second biggest, has the second biggest reserves 53 00:02:48,760 --> 00:02:50,640 of natural gas in the Western Hemisphere. 54 00:02:50,640 --> 00:02:53,800 So it's stuffed with natural resources, something that Donald 55 00:02:53,800 --> 00:02:55,360 Trump would love to get its hands on. 56 00:02:55,640 --> 00:02:59,240 But also this idea of regime change, either through limited 57 00:02:59,240 --> 00:03:02,160 force or a threat of force or perhaps even boots on the 58 00:03:02,160 --> 00:03:04,320 ground, which Donald Trump has said is a possibility. 59 00:03:04,720 --> 00:03:07,080 That is something that people are watching very closely 60 00:03:07,080 --> 00:03:11,120 because it set a a precedent for other actions around the region 61 00:03:11,440 --> 00:03:14,240 or indeed across the world. We're going to speak to Elliott 62 00:03:14,240 --> 00:03:17,400 Abrams a little bit later. He was the Venezuela envoy in 63 00:03:17,400 --> 00:03:19,880 the first Trump administration. He knows a lot about the 64 00:03:19,880 --> 00:03:21,760 country. He knows a lot about Trump's 65 00:03:21,760 --> 00:03:23,880 motives. And we'll try and find out from 66 00:03:23,880 --> 00:03:26,880 him what is actually going on and how this is different to 67 00:03:26,880 --> 00:03:30,080 what they tried to do in the first Trump administration. 68 00:03:30,320 --> 00:03:33,920 But let's just see what Trump 2 point O had to say about 69 00:03:33,920 --> 00:03:36,320 Venezuela. Is there anything you're? 70 00:03:36,680 --> 00:03:38,840 Ready to rule out at this point, Are you ruling out? 71 00:03:39,040 --> 00:03:41,240 U.S. troops on the ground. I don't rule out that. 72 00:03:41,240 --> 00:03:42,840 I don't rule out anything. In these. 73 00:03:42,840 --> 00:03:45,240 Talks with. Maduro, is there anything that 74 00:03:45,240 --> 00:03:50,560 he could? Say or do that would let allow 75 00:03:50,560 --> 00:03:53,160 you to feel like he could stay with your support. 76 00:03:53,160 --> 00:03:56,280 Is there anything that he could say that you would be OK you can 77 00:03:56,280 --> 00:03:58,560 stay as leader? Yeah, the question's a little 78 00:03:58,560 --> 00:04:01,800 bit tricky. I don't think it was meant to be 79 00:04:01,800 --> 00:04:04,280 tricky. It's just that, look, he's done 80 00:04:04,280 --> 00:04:07,760 tremendous damage to our country, primarily because of 81 00:04:07,760 --> 00:04:10,080 drugs, but really because we have that problem with other 82 00:04:10,080 --> 00:04:13,760 countries too. But more than any other country, 83 00:04:13,960 --> 00:04:17,240 the release of prisoners into our country has been a disaster. 84 00:04:17,600 --> 00:04:20,440 He's emptied his Shields. Others have done that also. 85 00:04:21,800 --> 00:04:25,880 Obviously we've been hearing responses from Nicolas Maduro 86 00:04:25,880 --> 00:04:28,560 himself. He has described the strikes in 87 00:04:28,560 --> 00:04:33,440 the sea as serial executions. Actually, there are even some 88 00:04:33,440 --> 00:04:35,920 Republicans in Congress who agree with him that these are 89 00:04:35,920 --> 00:04:40,200 extrajudicial killings. He did this slightly bizarre 90 00:04:40,400 --> 00:04:43,480 thing this weekend when he was talking about this, he suddenly 91 00:04:43,480 --> 00:04:47,360 broke out into a peace song, John Lennon's Imagine. 92 00:04:47,600 --> 00:04:51,600 And Look, clearly, there are big questions about Nicolas Maduro's 93 00:04:51,840 --> 00:04:54,480 regime. He is widely considered to have 94 00:04:54,480 --> 00:04:58,240 stolen last year's election. He lost to an opposition leader 95 00:04:58,240 --> 00:05:00,200 who was later given the Nobel Peace Prize. 96 00:05:00,200 --> 00:05:03,800 But he still carried on and seized control of the country. 97 00:05:03,800 --> 00:05:09,480 But massive questions about what America is claiming is going on 98 00:05:09,480 --> 00:05:11,040 here. They're claiming that by 99 00:05:11,040 --> 00:05:14,440 striking these boats in the Caribbean Sea that they are 100 00:05:15,040 --> 00:05:17,320 trying to stop fentanyl getting into the US. 101 00:05:17,320 --> 00:05:20,560 It's very, very clear from just spending a few days here that 102 00:05:20,560 --> 00:05:23,760 this is not fentanyl that's coming through this particular 103 00:05:24,000 --> 00:05:25,600 route. And many of the drugs are 104 00:05:25,600 --> 00:05:29,600 actually going onto Europe and not going to the US. 105 00:05:29,720 --> 00:05:33,200 He's claimed that Maduro has emptied his jails to let 106 00:05:33,200 --> 00:05:38,960 immigrants come through to the US Obviously, there's a lot 107 00:05:38,960 --> 00:05:41,080 going on here. Matt, you've already mentioned 108 00:05:41,120 --> 00:05:43,040 oil. Tell us what you think. 109 00:05:43,040 --> 00:05:46,840 Why do you think Trump hates Nicolas Maduro so much? 110 00:05:47,120 --> 00:05:49,760 I think we have to go back even a little bit before Trump 111 00:05:49,760 --> 00:05:53,640 because Venezuela under Hugo Chavez, who was the the the 112 00:05:53,640 --> 00:05:57,120 elected, repeatedly elected president of Venezuela, who then 113 00:05:57,120 --> 00:06:01,040 became also a strong man who was the predecessor to Nicolas 114 00:06:01,040 --> 00:06:04,240 Maduro, the current president, who was Hugo Chavez's vice 115 00:06:04,240 --> 00:06:06,960 president. Even when Chavez was in charge, 116 00:06:07,400 --> 00:06:10,640 America was very unhappy with Venezuela because Venezuela 117 00:06:10,640 --> 00:06:15,320 became a sort of larger, newer Cuba off, you know, in the 118 00:06:15,320 --> 00:06:18,360 Caribbean, not far from the United States, very much in 119 00:06:18,360 --> 00:06:21,760 America's backyard. He was completely over the top, 120 00:06:22,120 --> 00:06:27,040 unbelievably engaging and hated by successive American 121 00:06:27,040 --> 00:06:29,720 administrations. And he was in charge from 1999 122 00:06:29,720 --> 00:06:33,440 to 2013 when he died, hated because he was the thorn in 123 00:06:33,440 --> 00:06:36,720 America's side. And I remember going to his 124 00:06:36,720 --> 00:06:41,080 funeral in Caracas and the lines were extraordinary because this 125 00:06:41,080 --> 00:06:45,680 man had promised to lift very large numbers of people who were 126 00:06:45,680 --> 00:06:48,840 living in the the slums around the city of Caracas, which is 127 00:06:48,920 --> 00:06:52,640 potentially a very beautiful place, lift them out of poverty 128 00:06:52,640 --> 00:06:56,880 and give them at least a chance of participating in the oil 129 00:06:56,880 --> 00:06:59,480 riches of Venezuela, which are extraordinary. 130 00:06:59,480 --> 00:07:02,000 This is the country that has big, as I said earlier, bigger 131 00:07:02,000 --> 00:07:06,520 oil reserves stuffed in its ground than Saudi Arabia, the 132 00:07:06,520 --> 00:07:08,920 second biggest gas reserves, natural gas reserves in the 133 00:07:08,920 --> 00:07:11,800 Western Hemisphere. The money that can be made there 134 00:07:11,800 --> 00:07:14,960 is extraordinary. Now, as you said, Maduro is a 135 00:07:14,960 --> 00:07:17,480 dictator. He's he literally stole the last 136 00:07:17,480 --> 00:07:19,120 election. There's just no doubt about it. 137 00:07:19,640 --> 00:07:22,080 Even people quite close to him. As someone admitting, yeah, it 138 00:07:22,080 --> 00:07:25,600 was a bit dodgy and it was a result of that stolen election 139 00:07:25,880 --> 00:07:30,520 contested by a woman called Maria Corina Machado, who won 140 00:07:30,520 --> 00:07:34,400 the Nobel Peace Prize this year. Not Trump, of course, that, you 141 00:07:34,400 --> 00:07:36,320 know, we. So you have sort of three boxes 142 00:07:36,320 --> 00:07:39,120 that are being ticked yet. But box number one, this woman 143 00:07:39,120 --> 00:07:42,880 Machado, who could be running Venezuela, and this is someone 144 00:07:42,880 --> 00:07:45,040 that Trump has congratulated about her Peace Prize. 145 00:07:45,160 --> 00:07:46,840 He's working very closely with her. 146 00:07:47,000 --> 00:07:51,600 She is bought totally into the Trump agenda box #2 you've got 147 00:07:51,600 --> 00:07:55,200 all these natural resources that Trump was actually very close to 148 00:07:55,200 --> 00:07:58,400 getting his hands on in a deal concocted earlier this year 149 00:07:58,400 --> 00:08:01,840 whereby Venezuela would have literally handed over its entire 150 00:08:01,840 --> 00:08:05,920 natural resources wealth to the United States in even more than 151 00:08:05,920 --> 00:08:09,000 Ukraine was going to do in its minerals deal. 152 00:08:09,200 --> 00:08:11,480 And the third box is that they are highly motivated. 153 00:08:11,720 --> 00:08:14,800 Marco Rubio, the Secretary of State, is really going after the 154 00:08:14,800 --> 00:08:16,200 Venezuelan regime. I just. 155 00:08:16,200 --> 00:08:20,040 Want to kind of rewind for a minute and try and explain how 156 00:08:20,040 --> 00:08:23,600 Donald Trump is selling this because he's not selling it as 157 00:08:23,600 --> 00:08:28,160 Matt has, just as you have just basically set out. 158 00:08:28,160 --> 00:08:32,120 He's selling it with what sounds like an America First policy. 159 00:08:32,120 --> 00:08:35,640 And many believe that Marco Rubio basically persuaded Donald 160 00:08:35,640 --> 00:08:39,240 Trump because he wants regime change in Venezuela, that it 161 00:08:39,240 --> 00:08:42,480 could be sold in this way. And he's selling it, as, you 162 00:08:42,480 --> 00:08:45,080 know, an operation they're calling it, they've just named 163 00:08:45,080 --> 00:08:48,240 it actually Operation Southern Sphere that will save American 164 00:08:48,280 --> 00:08:50,560 lives. In fact, he argues that every 165 00:08:50,560 --> 00:08:54,040 strike on a boat will save 25,000 American lives. 166 00:08:54,040 --> 00:08:55,000 And you? Fentanyl, right? 167 00:08:55,640 --> 00:08:58,400 Because of fentanyl, Yeah, Although he's, as of yesterday, 168 00:08:58,400 --> 00:09:00,280 I think, started to mention cocaine as well. 169 00:09:00,440 --> 00:09:03,760 But you have to go back to day one of the Trump presidency to 170 00:09:03,760 --> 00:09:06,880 understand what's going on here, because on day one, Donald Trump 171 00:09:06,880 --> 00:09:10,320 signed loads of executive orders, more than anyone had 172 00:09:10,320 --> 00:09:12,560 ever done before On day one of the presidency. 173 00:09:12,760 --> 00:09:17,200 One of them basically designated drug cartels as foreign 174 00:09:17,200 --> 00:09:20,840 terrorist organizations. And so the idea was that from 175 00:09:20,840 --> 00:09:24,160 that day on, they would treat these organizations a bit like 176 00:09:24,160 --> 00:09:28,040 they treated al Qaeda in the past, IE they could go out there 177 00:09:28,240 --> 00:09:30,320 and they could bomb them out of the skies. 178 00:09:30,520 --> 00:09:33,400 I mean, it's not even got as much oversight as when they went 179 00:09:33,400 --> 00:09:36,280 after al Qaeda because at least when they went after al Qaeda, 180 00:09:36,600 --> 00:09:41,040 A, there had been a kind of military type attack on the US. 181 00:09:41,040 --> 00:09:43,720 And secondly, they got permission from Congress this 182 00:09:43,720 --> 00:09:45,680 time. No, he doesn't bother with 183 00:09:45,680 --> 00:09:47,360 Congress. He just goes ahead. 184 00:09:47,360 --> 00:09:51,280 Now, all of that provided A justification to start bombing 185 00:09:51,440 --> 00:09:54,400 on September the 2nd. And they started striking boat 186 00:09:54,480 --> 00:09:57,560 after boat after boat that was coming from Venezuela. 187 00:09:57,800 --> 00:10:00,600 And look, it is fascinating to be here on the ground in 188 00:10:00,760 --> 00:10:03,960 Trinidad and Tobago. It's only 7 miles away by water. 189 00:10:03,960 --> 00:10:07,000 Boats are coming content continuously across from 190 00:10:07,000 --> 00:10:11,080 Venezuela to Trinidad and Tobago and I should say without a 191 00:10:11,080 --> 00:10:15,040 shadow of a doubt there is a big drug smuggling problem here. 192 00:10:15,480 --> 00:10:20,560 But speaking to people and one of those peoples was a member of 193 00:10:20,560 --> 00:10:23,120 Trinidad's defence forces, he could only talk to me on 194 00:10:23,120 --> 00:10:26,880 condition of anonymity, but he made really clear to me that 195 00:10:26,880 --> 00:10:28,520 it's not fentanyl coming through here. 196 00:10:29,360 --> 00:10:31,440 What type of drugs are on the boats? 197 00:10:31,520 --> 00:10:32,720 The. Drugs that mostly include a 198 00:10:32,800 --> 00:10:35,240 green plant, like substance. Marijuana. 199 00:10:35,800 --> 00:10:38,800 Yeah, marijuana. There are lessons and says where 200 00:10:38,800 --> 00:10:40,840 a white pottery substance is found. 201 00:10:40,880 --> 00:10:42,280 Cocaine. Cocaine this. 202 00:10:42,280 --> 00:10:44,160 Isn't really a route for fentanyl. 203 00:10:44,320 --> 00:10:47,040 Not particularly he. Warned the strikes clearly 204 00:10:47,040 --> 00:10:50,040 breached international law do you believe that the boats that 205 00:10:50,040 --> 00:10:52,520 have been struck had drug dealers on them I. 206 00:10:52,520 --> 00:10:55,600 Would like to believe that if a decision was taken to strike 207 00:10:55,600 --> 00:11:00,240 vessels, that decision was based on sound reliable intelligence 208 00:11:00,240 --> 00:11:04,520 for someone to then decide OK, we are 100% certain. 209 00:11:04,760 --> 00:11:06,800 Do you believe they were 100% certain? 210 00:11:07,240 --> 00:11:11,480 I don't think so. And what one thing that is 211 00:11:11,480 --> 00:11:14,320 really, really interesting and it's really challenging for 212 00:11:14,320 --> 00:11:17,400 Trinidad and Tobago, where the Prime Minister has basically 213 00:11:17,400 --> 00:11:19,800 given Trump the green light. But it's also quite challenging 214 00:11:19,800 --> 00:11:21,640 to the UK. And I've speak been speaking to 215 00:11:21,640 --> 00:11:25,320 like military sources, intelligence sources and also 216 00:11:25,320 --> 00:11:30,160 legal sources about all of this, which is America may not be a 217 00:11:30,160 --> 00:11:33,320 member of the International Criminal Court, but we are. 218 00:11:33,560 --> 00:11:38,680 And if Trinidad more likely actually than the UK provide 219 00:11:39,040 --> 00:11:42,400 intelligence that goes along the line and ends up with one of 220 00:11:42,400 --> 00:11:45,080 these strikes, then they become part of what is known as the 221 00:11:45,080 --> 00:11:47,680 kill chain. And if you are in the kill 222 00:11:47,680 --> 00:11:51,280 chain, then you are liable for what happens at the end of it. 223 00:11:51,280 --> 00:11:54,880 So if we provide intelligence that ends up with a strike, 224 00:11:54,880 --> 00:11:59,440 which I can promise you the UK and Trinidad and Tobago consider 225 00:11:59,440 --> 00:12:04,400 to be unlawful in international law, then you end up liable with 226 00:12:04,400 --> 00:12:06,920 the ICC. Now, there were reports that the 227 00:12:06,920 --> 00:12:08,880 UK was therefore withholding intelligence. 228 00:12:09,400 --> 00:12:11,800 The sources I speak to suggest that we don't have the 229 00:12:11,800 --> 00:12:14,080 intelligence that's really leading to these strikes. 230 00:12:14,240 --> 00:12:18,000 So as yet it's not really an issue for us, but clearly our 231 00:12:18,000 --> 00:12:20,000 government is monitoring this very closely. 232 00:12:20,280 --> 00:12:23,640 People here in Trinidad are really quite worried about the 233 00:12:23,640 --> 00:12:26,880 impact that this could have for them, the knock on effect if 234 00:12:26,880 --> 00:12:28,960 they're providing the US with this intelligence. 235 00:12:29,080 --> 00:12:32,960 And of course, the question really is what do they actually 236 00:12:32,960 --> 00:12:35,480 intend to do in Caracas? That's I'm talking about the 237 00:12:35,480 --> 00:12:37,800 Americans here. And how do they intend to do it? 238 00:12:38,320 --> 00:12:40,680 So the impression is that yes, they want regime change, they 239 00:12:40,680 --> 00:12:43,880 want to get rid of Nicolas Maduro, having actually tried to 240 00:12:43,880 --> 00:12:47,680 do a deal with him along these natural resources earlier in the 241 00:12:47,680 --> 00:12:49,640 year. But how's that going to work? 242 00:12:49,640 --> 00:12:54,200 Because America has a very dodgy record with regime change all 243 00:12:54,200 --> 00:12:56,360 over the world, but also in Latin America. 244 00:12:56,360 --> 00:12:59,480 It doesn't tend to go very smoothly with a great outcome 245 00:12:59,800 --> 00:13:03,440 for either side. And when you compare, let's say, 246 00:13:03,440 --> 00:13:07,480 Venezuela to Panama, where they did this in the late 1980s, 247 00:13:07,920 --> 00:13:09,240 Panama is a much smaller country. 248 00:13:09,320 --> 00:13:13,200 Venezuela is 10 times the size. They had thousands of troops 249 00:13:13,240 --> 00:13:15,800 inside Panama. I'm not sure what Trump is 250 00:13:15,800 --> 00:13:18,360 prepared to do with that. And even with a relatively 251 00:13:18,360 --> 00:13:21,880 limited operation like Panama, where they ended up capturing 252 00:13:22,040 --> 00:13:26,520 Manuel Noriega, partly because they he'd taken refuge in the in 253 00:13:26,520 --> 00:13:29,080 the ambassador's residence of the Holy See. 254 00:13:29,520 --> 00:13:33,160 And they blasted the residence with heavy metal music for 10 255 00:13:33,160 --> 00:13:34,480 days. They they captured him. 256 00:13:34,480 --> 00:13:37,280 They put him on trial in Miami. He, he basically died in 257 00:13:37,280 --> 00:13:39,800 custody. But even in that clever, limited 258 00:13:39,800 --> 00:13:43,440 military operation, America lost something like 240 soldiers or 259 00:13:43,440 --> 00:13:45,920 so. Is Trump prepared to put boots 260 00:13:45,920 --> 00:13:48,920 on the ground in Venezuela, which is a much more tricky 261 00:13:48,920 --> 00:13:51,600 proposition? He hasn't said so, but he hasn't 262 00:13:51,600 --> 00:13:54,080 ruled it out either. And if you just have this 263 00:13:54,080 --> 00:13:56,440 pressure on the outside, remember that the Venezuelan 264 00:13:56,480 --> 00:13:59,880 regime has been living with American pressure for years. 265 00:13:59,920 --> 00:14:02,840 I mean, they tried something similar in a less concentrated, 266 00:14:02,840 --> 00:14:05,120 focused form in the first Trump administration. 267 00:14:05,120 --> 00:14:09,440 And even before that, Barack Obama wasn't exactly a friend of 268 00:14:09,560 --> 00:14:11,960 of the the Maduro government after he came into office in 269 00:14:12,280 --> 00:14:15,920 2013. And of course it's Venezuela is 270 00:14:15,920 --> 00:14:17,720 not alone. It has friends, you know, the 271 00:14:17,720 --> 00:14:20,280 Chinese are its friends. The Russians have have got 272 00:14:20,560 --> 00:14:23,600 involvement there. You've got I think the N Koreans 273 00:14:23,600 --> 00:14:27,320 knocking around a little bit. I mean, they the Iranians as 274 00:14:27,320 --> 00:14:29,640 well. So they are still part of that, 275 00:14:29,800 --> 00:14:32,400 what the Americans used to describe as the axis of evil. 276 00:14:32,760 --> 00:14:35,880 I don't think this is quite the flashpoint that the Cuban 277 00:14:35,880 --> 00:14:39,800 missile crisis was in the 1960s. I I can't imagine that we would 278 00:14:39,800 --> 00:14:44,200 go that far, but it's not entirely without consequences 279 00:14:44,200 --> 00:14:45,880 for the region. And the question always in risk 280 00:14:45,880 --> 00:14:51,760 is, isn't it, how far is Trump prepared to go in order to take, 281 00:14:52,040 --> 00:14:53,920 you know, to, to, to achieve his goals? 282 00:14:53,920 --> 00:14:56,280 Is he how far is he prepared to take these risks? 283 00:14:56,480 --> 00:15:00,760 One other aside, Hugo Chavez, who was this extraordinary 284 00:15:00,760 --> 00:15:03,840 figure who I described earlier in some ways is rather similar 285 00:15:03,840 --> 00:15:06,960 to Trump, because he used to have this program on Venezuelan 286 00:15:06,960 --> 00:15:10,560 state television called Alo Presidente went out on Sunday 287 00:15:10,560 --> 00:15:12,920 night. It was open-ended. 288 00:15:13,240 --> 00:15:17,040 And he used to have to the the cabinet used to have to turn up. 289 00:15:17,600 --> 00:15:20,200 And then there was a live audience and they used to have 290 00:15:20,200 --> 00:15:23,960 to listen to Chavez weave in and out of one subject after 291 00:15:23,960 --> 00:15:25,760 another. And he would read the papers and 292 00:15:25,760 --> 00:15:28,600 kind of leaf through the papers. And then he'd lose his place. 293 00:15:29,080 --> 00:15:32,560 And everyone just had to watch as this guy was, was, you know, 294 00:15:32,560 --> 00:15:37,640 bloviating and, and, and speculating and just boring the 295 00:15:37,640 --> 00:15:41,240 country to tears with his thoughts. 296 00:15:41,600 --> 00:15:45,440 And I have to say, that does remind me a little bit of Donald 297 00:15:45,440 --> 00:15:50,000 Trump's sort of cabinet meetings or Oval Office gaggles where 298 00:15:50,000 --> 00:15:54,000 everyone just hangs on to every word and they just go on and on 299 00:15:54,080 --> 00:15:56,320 and on. Donald Trump has got a domestic 300 00:15:56,320 --> 00:16:01,160 problem right now, and part of the domestic problem comes from 301 00:16:01,160 --> 00:16:05,160 him focusing so much on foreign conflicts around the world. 302 00:16:05,160 --> 00:16:08,640 I mean, he's fallen out in great style with Marjorie Taylor 303 00:16:08,640 --> 00:16:11,920 Green, who is the kind of ultimate you mean. 304 00:16:11,920 --> 00:16:14,640 Marjorie Traitor Green Marjorie Traitor Green I. 305 00:16:14,680 --> 00:16:15,680 Mean, that's what he's calling her. 306 00:16:15,840 --> 00:16:19,680 You know, she was, she, she is a representative who was about as 307 00:16:19,680 --> 00:16:22,160 MAGA as they come. She was a huge supporter of his, 308 00:16:22,360 --> 00:16:24,800 but she started to break away from him on various issues. 309 00:16:25,000 --> 00:16:28,280 Most obvious one, the release of the Epstein files. 310 00:16:28,280 --> 00:16:30,640 They have had a complete fireworks fallout. 311 00:16:30,640 --> 00:16:33,400 But I keep noting that one of the things she keeps saying is 312 00:16:33,560 --> 00:16:36,760 you're focusing on foreign policy when actually Americans 313 00:16:36,760 --> 00:16:38,520 are struggling. We've seen the Democrats do 314 00:16:38,520 --> 00:16:42,360 really well in recent elections because of economic situations. 315 00:16:42,360 --> 00:16:46,200 But there is clearly a desire for a very big geopolitical 316 00:16:46,200 --> 00:16:49,520 shift in South America. I mean, if you listen to experts 317 00:16:49,520 --> 00:16:53,200 on this, that the kind of narrative behind it, if you 318 00:16:53,200 --> 00:16:57,200 like, is that America wants to have more dominance in the 319 00:16:57,200 --> 00:16:59,880 Western Hemisphere. We've seen them, you know, 320 00:16:59,880 --> 00:17:03,960 offering plenty of money to friendly governments like Miley 321 00:17:03,960 --> 00:17:07,640 in Argentina, whilst they are trying to pressure the more left 322 00:17:07,640 --> 00:17:10,520 wing socialist governments like Nicolas Maduro. 323 00:17:10,520 --> 00:17:14,079 It is interesting because as we said, you know, twice now Maduro 324 00:17:14,079 --> 00:17:16,400 stole the election. There is not support from him 325 00:17:16,400 --> 00:17:18,599 for him in the country. Most people would like to see 326 00:17:18,599 --> 00:17:20,960 him gone. They voted for the opposition in 327 00:17:20,960 --> 00:17:23,319 last year's election. At the same time, there does not 328 00:17:23,319 --> 00:17:26,760 appear to be support for a invasion, I should say, while 329 00:17:26,760 --> 00:17:30,760 there has been this huge build up of a military might in this 330 00:17:30,920 --> 00:17:32,840 region. I know I'm sitting here in front 331 00:17:32,840 --> 00:17:36,360 of a curtain, but just outside are the waters exactly where 332 00:17:36,480 --> 00:17:38,720 that has been happening. And there are thousands and 333 00:17:38,720 --> 00:17:42,800 thousands of American soldiers nearing the Venezuelan borders. 334 00:17:43,720 --> 00:17:46,840 There is not enough people here to suggest that they're trying 335 00:17:46,840 --> 00:17:49,440 to do what they did in Panama. There's not enough to suggest 336 00:17:49,720 --> 00:17:52,920 that they would go ahead with a proper land invasion. 337 00:17:52,920 --> 00:17:56,720 It's very clear they're trying to scare Maduro, trying to get 338 00:17:56,720 --> 00:17:58,800 him out. Maybe there could be some sort 339 00:17:58,800 --> 00:18:03,120 of land strike is very possible Trump has talked about that or a 340 00:18:03,120 --> 00:18:06,360 kind of targeted thing, allies of Maduro that would make him 341 00:18:06,680 --> 00:18:09,640 want to leave the country. Umm, I, I just wonder if the 342 00:18:09,640 --> 00:18:14,400 American public really has the appetite for America being once 343 00:18:14,400 --> 00:18:17,800 again so focused on something outside of its borders. 344 00:18:18,000 --> 00:18:20,240 And particularly when the argument they've been making and 345 00:18:20,240 --> 00:18:23,400 you can sort of hear Donald Trump shifting on this doesn't 346 00:18:23,400 --> 00:18:27,440 stack up. Fentanyl is not coming on boats 347 00:18:27,480 --> 00:18:30,680 from Venezuela towards the Caribbean and see it is crossing 348 00:18:30,680 --> 00:18:33,480 the border from Mexico. That doesn't mean that there 349 00:18:33,480 --> 00:18:36,320 isn't an opioid crisis in America and it doesn't mean that 350 00:18:36,320 --> 00:18:38,200 there isn't a drug smuggling problem here. 351 00:18:38,480 --> 00:18:42,680 But, you know, and, and also, does striking boats actually 352 00:18:43,240 --> 00:18:45,840 deter people? You know, speaking to that 353 00:18:45,840 --> 00:18:49,160 senior member of the Defence Force here, they thought, yeah, 354 00:18:49,280 --> 00:18:51,280 it might deter them in the short term. 355 00:18:51,280 --> 00:18:52,960 People are very, very scared here. 356 00:18:52,960 --> 00:18:56,000 I was out with a fisherman yesterday who has lost more than 357 00:18:56,000 --> 00:19:01,200 half his income because he used to go 30 miles from Trinidad and 358 00:19:01,200 --> 00:19:04,880 Tobago right into those waters close to Venezuela, which is 359 00:19:04,880 --> 00:19:07,120 where the best shark can be caught. 360 00:19:07,120 --> 00:19:10,760 And, you know, shark is a very big delicacy here in Trinidad 361 00:19:10,760 --> 00:19:12,680 and Tobago. Now he doesn't dare to go 10 362 00:19:12,680 --> 00:19:15,320 miles. The catch has massively reduced. 363 00:19:15,320 --> 00:19:18,240 So this guy was saying, look, it will also deter fishermen. 364 00:19:18,240 --> 00:19:20,880 On the one hand, which Trump Can you believe, has joked about 365 00:19:20,880 --> 00:19:22,760 fishermen being too scared to go there. 366 00:19:23,040 --> 00:19:25,560 These are people who are really struggling financially. 367 00:19:25,680 --> 00:19:27,880 And now, you know, their livelihoods are being pulled 368 00:19:27,880 --> 00:19:30,640 from under them. It's also scaring drug gangs. 369 00:19:30,640 --> 00:19:34,040 But what that military source said to me is they are very, 370 00:19:34,040 --> 00:19:36,600 very resourceful. And actually a fisherman who has 371 00:19:36,600 --> 00:19:40,120 been out on these waters for 40 years said bit of hyperbole 372 00:19:40,120 --> 00:19:43,600 here, but said in his opinion, they could strike a million 373 00:19:43,600 --> 00:19:47,840 boats and kill a million people, but the drugs would still come 374 00:19:47,960 --> 00:19:49,400 but. Remember, there's also the 375 00:19:49,400 --> 00:19:53,240 domestic dimension and there always is with Latin American 376 00:19:53,240 --> 00:19:55,360 politics. So we know about the Cuban vote 377 00:19:55,400 --> 00:19:58,120 in the what used to be the swing state of Florida, which is now 378 00:19:58,120 --> 00:20:00,840 Trump's residence. Of course, similarly there's a 379 00:20:00,880 --> 00:20:03,520 Venezuelan vote and. During the last election, I 380 00:20:03,520 --> 00:20:06,120 spent a lot of time talking to Venezuelan Americans. 381 00:20:06,520 --> 00:20:09,680 They were all Trump supporters. And a lot of them were very 382 00:20:09,680 --> 00:20:13,320 upset that he started deporting Venezuelans as soon he got as he 383 00:20:13,320 --> 00:20:16,200 got back into office, even those who didn't have any criminal 384 00:20:16,200 --> 00:20:18,600 records. And, you know, for them, for the 385 00:20:18,600 --> 00:20:21,040 Venezuelan community, that was a promise broken. 386 00:20:21,360 --> 00:20:24,560 But the one thing they really care about, and that really 387 00:20:24,560 --> 00:20:28,080 unites Venezuelans of whatever generation, is that they all 388 00:20:28,640 --> 00:20:31,360 hate Nicolas Maduro, the president. 389 00:20:31,360 --> 00:20:34,520 So I wouldn't be surprised if part of the calculation, but 390 00:20:34,520 --> 00:20:38,040 only one part is let's do the Venezuelans who are feeling are 391 00:20:38,080 --> 00:20:40,320 feeling a bit bruised by what we've done with immigration, 392 00:20:40,320 --> 00:20:43,680 let's do them a favour and try and get rid of Maduro, which is 393 00:20:43,680 --> 00:20:45,720 something they will thank us for forever. 394 00:20:45,720 --> 00:20:49,360 As you know, Cuban Americans would have thanked successive 395 00:20:49,360 --> 00:20:52,520 American administrations if they had succeeded in getting rid of 396 00:20:52,520 --> 00:20:54,080 the Castro brothers, which they didn't. 397 00:20:54,480 --> 00:20:58,400 But remember this, Anushka, you get rid of Maduro and if you 398 00:20:58,400 --> 00:21:01,560 don't have a smooth transition to the next, in other words, if 399 00:21:02,240 --> 00:21:06,200 Maria Corina Machado does not manage to create a viable, 400 00:21:06,200 --> 00:21:10,720 coherent, democratic, peaceful Venezuela, big question mark, 401 00:21:10,720 --> 00:21:11,920 then guess what's going to happen. 402 00:21:11,920 --> 00:21:14,400 You're going to have more Venezuelan refugees leaving the 403 00:21:14,400 --> 00:21:15,640 country. There might even be a knock on 404 00:21:15,640 --> 00:21:19,400 effect to Colombia next door and you have Colombian refugees 405 00:21:19,520 --> 00:21:22,240 heading across Central America. So you could actually make the 406 00:21:22,240 --> 00:21:26,120 problem that they that they set out to solve by putting up a 407 00:21:26,120 --> 00:21:29,480 fence or a wall on the border even worse if you're not 408 00:21:29,480 --> 00:21:32,520 careful, if, if this thing gets out of hand and often these 409 00:21:32,520 --> 00:21:36,320 regime change exercises, as we saw in Iraq, get horribly out of 410 00:21:36,320 --> 00:21:39,000 hand, we. Should also be very, you know, 411 00:21:39,000 --> 00:21:42,520 sceptical of the real motive as as you you have been. 412 00:21:42,520 --> 00:21:46,480 And I totally agree with you. I don't think that Donald Trump 413 00:21:46,480 --> 00:21:50,440 is crying because, you know, an election was stolen in Venezuela 414 00:21:50,440 --> 00:21:52,680 last year. I think what he doesn't like is 415 00:21:52,680 --> 00:21:58,480 that the election was stolen by by a a socialist, so somebody 416 00:21:58,480 --> 00:22:01,680 whose politics are different. But as you say, you know, he was 417 00:22:01,680 --> 00:22:05,320 nearly he was nearly doing a deal with Maduro not that long 418 00:22:05,320 --> 00:22:09,280 ago over Venezuelan oil in which Venezuela would give up almost 419 00:22:09,280 --> 00:22:10,880 all of it. And everyone I've spoken to here 420 00:22:10,880 --> 00:22:16,040 is really clear that that is the major, you know, motivation 421 00:22:16,040 --> 00:22:19,160 here. You know, it's not really about 422 00:22:19,440 --> 00:22:21,920 trying to help the Venezuelan people, they would argue. 423 00:22:22,160 --> 00:22:26,280 It's really about trying to remove an anti American leader 424 00:22:26,280 --> 00:22:28,720 and replace them with a pro American leader who will do that 425 00:22:28,720 --> 00:22:30,680 deal. And, you know, just this week, 426 00:22:30,680 --> 00:22:34,520 Donald Trump has said maybe I will talk to Nicolas Maduro, as 427 00:22:34,520 --> 00:22:37,640 we heard earlier. So if he does talk to him, maybe 428 00:22:37,640 --> 00:22:40,320 he's hoping that all this pressure will actually result in 429 00:22:40,320 --> 00:22:43,160 the deal that he wants and then he will back off. 430 00:22:43,160 --> 00:22:46,360 But we shouldn't lose sight of the fact that in the meantime, 431 00:22:46,360 --> 00:22:50,520 America is behaving in the way that America has long criticized 432 00:22:51,040 --> 00:22:52,760 regimes across the world for behaving. 433 00:22:52,760 --> 00:22:55,440 It is taking out people on boats. 434 00:22:55,720 --> 00:22:58,600 You know, I met the family of one of the men who was killed, a 435 00:22:58,600 --> 00:23:02,760 guy called Chad Joseph. And I was saying to them, you 436 00:23:02,760 --> 00:23:05,720 know, they, they no one told them, no one informed them that 437 00:23:05,720 --> 00:23:08,200 their, you know, loved one had been killed. 438 00:23:08,200 --> 00:23:10,800 They frantic calls went unanswered. 439 00:23:11,000 --> 00:23:14,760 They found out on social media. And I asked them about the drugs 440 00:23:14,760 --> 00:23:15,760 thing. I mean, they said if he was 441 00:23:15,760 --> 00:23:20,520 involved in drugs, you know, where were his assets, which I 442 00:23:20,520 --> 00:23:23,360 thought was quite interesting because at the very least, the 443 00:23:23,360 --> 00:23:27,400 people who are on these boats, if they are involved in the drug 444 00:23:27,400 --> 00:23:30,920 trade, are largely probably very low down the chain. 445 00:23:30,920 --> 00:23:33,600 They're not exactly the leaders of drug gangs. 446 00:23:33,760 --> 00:23:37,480 But the but the bigger point is, even if these boats were to be 447 00:23:37,480 --> 00:23:42,640 shown, all of them to have drugs on board, you don't just go and 448 00:23:42,640 --> 00:23:45,080 kill people without providing the evidence. 449 00:23:45,080 --> 00:23:47,360 You don't go and kill people without due process. 450 00:23:47,520 --> 00:23:49,520 But yes, I know that that is true. 451 00:23:49,520 --> 00:23:51,320 That's a, it's, it's a very important point. 452 00:23:51,320 --> 00:23:53,000 And I think that's what many people are worried about, 453 00:23:53,000 --> 00:23:54,720 including in this country, although none of them are 454 00:23:54,720 --> 00:23:56,240 members of the Trump administration. 455 00:23:56,680 --> 00:23:59,240 I I mean, the Trump administration would point to 456 00:23:59,240 --> 00:24:04,040 Barack Obama who had a kill list of Islamic, Islamic extremists, 457 00:24:04,040 --> 00:24:07,560 terrorists who were taken out on a very regular basis and it had 458 00:24:07,560 --> 00:24:09,920 to be done. A judge have had to sign off on 459 00:24:09,920 --> 00:24:12,560 the kill list, but we were never told who was on the kill list. 460 00:24:13,280 --> 00:24:16,160 People just wound up dead. We were never there was never 461 00:24:16,200 --> 00:24:17,440 any. Do you think that? 462 00:24:17,880 --> 00:24:19,080 This is a quite interesting point though. 463 00:24:19,080 --> 00:24:22,080 Do you think that the War on Terror can be equated with the 464 00:24:22,080 --> 00:24:24,440 war on drugs? I mean, that's, that's basically 465 00:24:24,440 --> 00:24:27,760 what they're saying, you know, the War on Terror, they would 466 00:24:27,760 --> 00:24:30,080 argue I. Think any war on a noun is 467 00:24:30,080 --> 00:24:33,040 always a problem, right? So the War on Terror and the War 468 00:24:33,040 --> 00:24:35,600 on Terror was, you know, led to Guantanamo Bay. 469 00:24:36,120 --> 00:24:38,720 You could argue that, you know, bits of it were Abu Ghraib. 470 00:24:38,720 --> 00:24:42,280 I mean, America did terrible things as a result of conducting 471 00:24:42,320 --> 00:24:45,720 a War on Terror in the same way that the war on drugs, which has 472 00:24:45,720 --> 00:24:47,880 been going on for decades, I mean, started under Ronald 473 00:24:47,880 --> 00:24:51,680 Reagan and Noriega removed by Bush senior. 474 00:24:51,840 --> 00:24:54,800 Otherwise a sort of, you know, the former CIA operative, head 475 00:24:54,800 --> 00:24:58,120 of the CIAA, relatively genteel man compared to his son. 476 00:24:58,520 --> 00:25:01,560 You know, he went after Noriega again, because of drugs. 477 00:25:01,880 --> 00:25:04,680 Now, there may have been more evidence to link Noriega to drug 478 00:25:04,680 --> 00:25:08,880 trafficking back in the day than there is to link Maduro to the 479 00:25:08,880 --> 00:25:11,960 drugs cartels selling stuff from Venezuela. 480 00:25:12,400 --> 00:25:14,240 We don't know because we're not being told. 481 00:25:14,520 --> 00:25:17,480 And again, you always have to remember that whatever Trump 482 00:25:17,480 --> 00:25:23,160 does in this sort of impatient presidential mind is to keep 483 00:25:23,160 --> 00:25:27,080 himself busy and occupied, but also to deflect from something 484 00:25:27,080 --> 00:25:29,640 else. So the Epstein files, the fact 485 00:25:29,640 --> 00:25:32,360 that the cost of living crisis has been made worse by tariffs, 486 00:25:32,640 --> 00:25:34,760 tick, tick, tick. As we discussed just a few weeks 487 00:25:34,760 --> 00:25:38,760 ago in the so-called blue wave when the Democrats won two 488 00:25:38,760 --> 00:25:40,720 States and of course van down he won in New York. 489 00:25:40,720 --> 00:25:43,240 A lot of that is down to the fact that Trump has not been 490 00:25:43,240 --> 00:25:46,400 able to fix the problems he came into office to fix. 491 00:25:46,720 --> 00:25:49,520 So what do you do? You deflect by going on foreign 492 00:25:49,520 --> 00:25:51,520 adventures. What does the MAGA base do? 493 00:25:51,520 --> 00:25:54,480 As you said, they complain. They said America first is about 494 00:25:54,480 --> 00:25:57,600 America first, not let's deal with the Venezuela 1st. 495 00:25:58,040 --> 00:26:01,440 And I think so. He's getting himself into some 496 00:26:01,480 --> 00:26:04,600 hot political water on a number of levels. 497 00:26:06,000 --> 00:26:08,560 We say farewell to Anushka is off to cover another story. 498 00:26:08,560 --> 00:26:12,200 But we say hello to Elliot Abrams, who was the Venezuela 499 00:26:12,200 --> 00:26:15,040 envoy in the first Trump administration, is now a senior 500 00:26:15,040 --> 00:26:17,240 fellow in the Council on Foreign Relations. 501 00:26:17,800 --> 00:26:19,920 Welcome, Elliot. Good to be here. 502 00:26:20,680 --> 00:26:25,080 So a lot to unpack here. What do you think ultimately is 503 00:26:25,080 --> 00:26:28,320 going on with the administration parking this fleet off the coast 504 00:26:28,320 --> 00:26:31,600 of Venezuela and making, you know, threatening noises to 505 00:26:31,600 --> 00:26:34,920 Nicolas Maduro, killing all these people who they accuse of 506 00:26:34,920 --> 00:26:37,640 fairing drugs to America? Is this about regime change? 507 00:26:38,120 --> 00:26:40,480 Is it about reducing the flow of drugs? 508 00:26:40,920 --> 00:26:43,040 Is it about influence in the hemisphere? 509 00:26:43,040 --> 00:26:46,240 What's it about? Well, it certainly is about 510 00:26:46,520 --> 00:26:50,080 reducing the flow of drugs, but you don't need a gigantic 511 00:26:50,960 --> 00:26:55,880 aircraft carrier to do that. So I assume it is also about 512 00:26:56,160 --> 00:26:59,880 getting rid of Nicolas Maduro. Right. 513 00:27:00,200 --> 00:27:03,000 And and of course, you know, you were in charge of the Venezuela 514 00:27:03,000 --> 00:27:06,400 policy in the first Trump administration and, you know, he 515 00:27:06,400 --> 00:27:10,200 made some very unkind noises about the Trump that is about 516 00:27:10,200 --> 00:27:13,760 Maduro at that time. But what is different this time? 517 00:27:13,920 --> 00:27:16,680 Because it seems to be a very different policy, a more robust 518 00:27:16,680 --> 00:27:18,880 1. Well, it certainly is. 519 00:27:18,880 --> 00:27:23,080 I mean, in the first term, we used, pardon me, diplomatic 520 00:27:23,080 --> 00:27:27,520 pressure, economic pressure, sanctions, but no military 521 00:27:27,520 --> 00:27:29,960 pressure. One thing is different, and that 522 00:27:29,960 --> 00:27:33,880 is that they've now had an election and it was a landslide 523 00:27:33,880 --> 00:27:37,600 defeat from Maduro and there is a legitimately elected 524 00:27:37,600 --> 00:27:40,520 president. The problem is that's probably 525 00:27:40,520 --> 00:27:44,680 the thing that Trump cares about least when you compare it to, 526 00:27:44,680 --> 00:27:48,480 say, drug trafficking. So the major difference is 527 00:27:48,480 --> 00:27:54,360 probably not the explanation for this change, and I don't really 528 00:27:54,360 --> 00:27:57,360 understand what is. And if you don't understand, 529 00:27:57,360 --> 00:27:59,040 Elliot, we're, we're in trouble, aren't we? 530 00:27:59,040 --> 00:28:02,040 Because, you know, about policy towards Venezuela, you know, 531 00:28:02,040 --> 00:28:04,880 about, you know, policy towards Latin America in the broader 532 00:28:04,880 --> 00:28:08,480 sense. I mean, just tell us about the 533 00:28:08,480 --> 00:28:11,560 thing that we've been discussing on the podcast, which is this 534 00:28:11,560 --> 00:28:15,800 idea that there was a deal to be made with Maduro between Maduro 535 00:28:15,800 --> 00:28:17,800 and Trump at the beginning of the administration. 536 00:28:18,320 --> 00:28:19,920 And it was around natural resources. 537 00:28:19,920 --> 00:28:23,200 Essentially, Venezuela was going to hand over almost all of its 538 00:28:23,240 --> 00:28:29,000 oil to America in return for America tolerating Maduro in 539 00:28:29,000 --> 00:28:31,280 power. Did you hear of such a deal? 540 00:28:31,280 --> 00:28:34,640 And what happened to that deal? Yes, Maduro offered something 541 00:28:35,000 --> 00:28:38,120 along those lines. It's not a very compelling 542 00:28:38,120 --> 00:28:39,840 offer. We don't actually need 543 00:28:39,840 --> 00:28:43,440 Venezuelan oil. You know, we did during the 544 00:28:43,480 --> 00:28:48,160 Second World War, but we're pretty much self-sufficient in 545 00:28:48,440 --> 00:28:52,440 oil these days. To the extent that this is about 546 00:28:52,800 --> 00:28:55,640 migration. And that's an issue that we 547 00:28:55,640 --> 00:28:58,680 should really mention. It's pretty clear that while 548 00:28:58,680 --> 00:29:02,360 Maduro is in power and destroying the economy of 549 00:29:02,360 --> 00:29:06,280 Venezuela and repressing the people, they're going to keep 550 00:29:06,480 --> 00:29:11,400 moving out of Venezuela. So if you want that to stop, you 551 00:29:11,400 --> 00:29:14,440 really got to change the regime. But regime change is something 552 00:29:14,440 --> 00:29:18,880 that America has has tried not just in Latin America over the 553 00:29:18,880 --> 00:29:21,360 decades, but also most famously in Iraq. 554 00:29:21,720 --> 00:29:24,440 And it doesn't always go according to plan. 555 00:29:24,840 --> 00:29:29,000 How, If there is a regime change plan that you can decipher out 556 00:29:29,000 --> 00:29:31,040 of all this, what does it actually look like? 557 00:29:31,520 --> 00:29:35,120 Venezuela is a much better candidate than, say, Iraq or 558 00:29:35,120 --> 00:29:36,720 Syria. You know, when we think of 559 00:29:36,720 --> 00:29:40,960 Syria, we think of and Iraq, Sunnis and Shias and Druze and 560 00:29:40,960 --> 00:29:43,400 Kurds. There are no divisions like that 561 00:29:43,440 --> 00:29:47,800 in Venezuela, first of all. Secondly, Venezuela had about 50 562 00:29:47,800 --> 00:29:50,400 years of democracy. They kicked out a military 563 00:29:50,400 --> 00:29:55,280 dictator in 1958. And then for about 50 years they 564 00:29:55,400 --> 00:29:57,800 had, you know, regular elections and democracy. 565 00:29:58,360 --> 00:30:02,080 So it's a much better, there's a much better possibility that 566 00:30:02,080 --> 00:30:05,920 after Maduro, they could return with their recently elected 567 00:30:05,920 --> 00:30:10,840 president to democracy. You can't say regime change. 568 00:30:10,840 --> 00:30:14,920 I mean, this administration hates that term, and they'll 569 00:30:14,920 --> 00:30:16,880 never use it and they'll deny it. 570 00:30:17,920 --> 00:30:22,120 But I think the idea basically is if you could get Maduro and 571 00:30:22,120 --> 00:30:26,720 his inner circle out and then Edmundo Gonzalez, who was 572 00:30:26,720 --> 00:30:30,440 elected president and is in exile in Spain, would go home, 573 00:30:31,160 --> 00:30:34,520 you could start returning Venezuela to democracy. 574 00:30:35,480 --> 00:30:37,880 Because the issue in Iraq was always that, you know, you could 575 00:30:37,880 --> 00:30:41,960 have free and fair elections, sort of, but you don't have the 576 00:30:41,960 --> 00:30:46,480 institutions of democracy to uphold, the democracy to uphold 577 00:30:46,480 --> 00:30:49,680 the result. Did those institutions survive 578 00:30:50,120 --> 00:30:53,120 in a decades of Chavez and Maduro? 579 00:30:53,960 --> 00:30:56,160 Yes and no. I mean, there there is. 580 00:30:56,440 --> 00:30:59,200 There's always been a parliament, but the elections 581 00:30:59,200 --> 00:31:02,040 for parliament were in recent years fixed. 582 00:31:02,720 --> 00:31:05,040 There's always been a Supreme Court, you know, and a court 583 00:31:05,040 --> 00:31:07,640 system, but again, under the control of the regime. 584 00:31:07,640 --> 00:31:10,600 And the question is, how long would it take to restore those? 585 00:31:10,880 --> 00:31:13,920 Again, Venezuela had 50 years of this. 586 00:31:14,200 --> 00:31:19,240 It is surrounded by democracies like Brazil, Chile, Peru, 587 00:31:19,480 --> 00:31:23,600 Colombia. So it is, you know, we no 588 00:31:23,600 --> 00:31:25,760 guarantees, but it is a better candidate. 589 00:31:26,440 --> 00:31:27,880 Right. But I guess we're getting a 590 00:31:27,880 --> 00:31:30,480 little bit ahead of ourselves. First of all, to establish 591 00:31:30,480 --> 00:31:32,920 democracy, you've got to, you know, remove the guy who's 592 00:31:32,920 --> 00:31:36,360 currently running the country. Do you really think that, given 593 00:31:36,360 --> 00:31:40,760 what awaits him, Nicolas Maduro is open to some kind of deal 594 00:31:40,760 --> 00:31:45,440 that, you know, sees his removal from power or even open to gun 595 00:31:45,520 --> 00:31:49,200 gunship diplomacy, you know, with the USS Gerald Ford parked 596 00:31:49,200 --> 00:31:52,280 off the coast of his country? I just can't imagine that really 597 00:31:52,280 --> 00:31:54,160 working. I wonder if you can you? 598 00:31:54,160 --> 00:31:57,000 Know it is reminiscent of what happened in Panama with Manuel 599 00:31:57,000 --> 00:31:59,960 Noriega. The deal that was offered this 600 00:31:59,960 --> 00:32:03,280 is this is the Reagan administration will quash the 601 00:32:03,280 --> 00:32:06,360 indictments of you if you will leave power and leave Panama. 602 00:32:06,720 --> 00:32:10,640 He said no and ended up in AUS federal prison. 603 00:32:12,000 --> 00:32:16,480 I I think really Maduro was unlikely to accept such a deal 604 00:32:16,480 --> 00:32:19,120 because he's worried about going to prison himself. 605 00:32:19,120 --> 00:32:22,880 He is an indicted drug trafficker indicted in the US 606 00:32:23,480 --> 00:32:27,040 That's why I think you're going to have to push him out. 607 00:32:27,040 --> 00:32:30,160 You're probably not going to be able to negotiate him out. 608 00:32:30,480 --> 00:32:34,240 And that means getting, among other things, getting Venezuelan 609 00:32:34,240 --> 00:32:39,800 military to push him out, some Colonel someplace to rise up and 610 00:32:39,800 --> 00:32:43,320 say, look at this American power being brought here. 611 00:32:44,320 --> 00:32:48,520 I do think it will require strikes on Venezuela. 612 00:32:48,840 --> 00:32:51,640 That is right now what the US is doing is hitting, you know, a 613 00:32:51,640 --> 00:32:54,440 boat here or boat there in international waters. 614 00:32:54,920 --> 00:32:57,600 I don't think that'll do it. I think you need to hit 615 00:32:57,840 --> 00:33:03,800 Venezuela itself, some military or or narcotics target for the 616 00:33:03,800 --> 00:33:06,160 military to think, OK, the game's really over. 617 00:33:06,360 --> 00:33:08,560 Maduro is going down. I don't want to go with them. 618 00:33:08,920 --> 00:33:11,880 OK, but some Colonel Summer could be another Hugo Chavez, 619 00:33:11,880 --> 00:33:13,400 couldn't it? I mean that he was some Colonel 620 00:33:13,400 --> 00:33:15,000 somewhere. He ended up taking over the 621 00:33:15,000 --> 00:33:19,080 whole country. Yeah, but now they've got an 622 00:33:19,080 --> 00:33:22,120 elected president. And this is in the context, of 623 00:33:22,120 --> 00:33:26,480 course, of tremendous use of American power. 624 00:33:27,120 --> 00:33:30,640 The Maduro and his regime are reviled all over Latin America 625 00:33:31,080 --> 00:33:35,280 and the days of Latin American, you know, juntas running 626 00:33:35,280 --> 00:33:38,240 countries are over. There isn't a military 627 00:33:38,240 --> 00:33:39,880 dictatorship in all of Latin America. 628 00:33:40,680 --> 00:33:44,240 And, you know, but you mentioned the Noriega example in I think 629 00:33:44,240 --> 00:33:46,440 it was 1989. I mean, there were American 630 00:33:46,440 --> 00:33:48,680 boots on the ground. That is something that that you 631 00:33:48,720 --> 00:33:51,440 know, that Trump has said and his MAGA movement has said they 632 00:33:51,440 --> 00:33:54,200 really don't want to see, right? And I don't think he's going to 633 00:33:54,200 --> 00:33:57,080 do it. Reagan tried negotiating with 634 00:33:57,080 --> 00:33:58,200 Noriega. That failed. 635 00:33:58,200 --> 00:34:02,880 It was George HW Bush then in 1989, as you said, who invaded 636 00:34:03,560 --> 00:34:06,280 Panama. But that is the kind of thing 637 00:34:06,280 --> 00:34:09,320 Trump hates. He likes, you know, the kind of 638 00:34:09,320 --> 00:34:13,679 thing he did in Iran, a strike and then it's over with no boots 639 00:34:13,679 --> 00:34:16,000 on the ground. I don't think you're going to 640 00:34:16,000 --> 00:34:17,639 see that. And it's interesting that if you 641 00:34:17,639 --> 00:34:21,719 look at this great flotilla, yeah, there are some troops 642 00:34:21,719 --> 00:34:24,560 there, but there are not the numbers that you would need from 643 00:34:24,560 --> 00:34:26,760 Venezuela. He does not intend that, I 644 00:34:26,760 --> 00:34:29,120 think. So if he wants the Venezuelan 645 00:34:29,120 --> 00:34:31,639 people, the opposition of which there are millions, to do the 646 00:34:31,639 --> 00:34:35,320 heavy lifting, you know, as he thought maybe it might be the 647 00:34:35,320 --> 00:34:38,120 case in Iran, well, again, that didn't work. 648 00:34:38,120 --> 00:34:39,360 They didn't do the heavy lifting. 649 00:34:39,360 --> 00:34:42,280 You know, they were either too intimidated or too disorganised 650 00:34:42,280 --> 00:34:44,440 to do so. Do you think that Venezuela is 651 00:34:44,440 --> 00:34:48,480 different because there is a coherent opposition that formed 652 00:34:48,480 --> 00:34:50,920 around the last election that was stolen by the President? 653 00:34:52,520 --> 00:34:56,159 I think it's different. I think that however, you will 654 00:34:56,159 --> 00:35:01,520 probably need something coming from the Venezuelan military to 655 00:35:01,520 --> 00:35:04,360 push Maduro out. I I think the idea that you're 656 00:35:04,360 --> 00:35:08,080 going to get 5 million people out, you know, into this streets 657 00:35:08,080 --> 00:35:13,040 to do this pretty unlikely. Just on the question of, of, of 658 00:35:13,880 --> 00:35:17,880 bombing these, you know, boats, fishing boats that carry drugs, 659 00:35:18,360 --> 00:35:21,960 I mean, in all this stuff, there's no due process of law, 660 00:35:21,960 --> 00:35:24,080 is there? We just have to take it on, you 661 00:35:24,080 --> 00:35:26,560 know, on their evidence that these are boats carrying 662 00:35:26,560 --> 00:35:28,840 fentanyl. And actually Anoushka was on the 663 00:35:28,840 --> 00:35:31,280 ground in Trinidad and, and, and spoke to people there. 664 00:35:31,280 --> 00:35:33,960 You know, they're right across the water from Venezuela. 665 00:35:34,360 --> 00:35:37,200 They said the evidence so far is that it's, it's actually not, 666 00:35:37,200 --> 00:35:40,280 it's marijuana and it might be cocaine, but it's not fentanyl. 667 00:35:40,800 --> 00:35:43,040 I mean, is there a problem here that America is just doing all 668 00:35:43,040 --> 00:35:47,080 these extrajudicial killings without going to any due process 669 00:35:47,080 --> 00:35:49,840 of law, and that that might set a rather alarming precedent? 670 00:35:50,760 --> 00:35:53,520 Well, I think a lot of Americans feel that way. 671 00:35:53,520 --> 00:35:56,720 I do think these boats are engaged in drug trafficking. 672 00:35:57,280 --> 00:35:59,720 Fenchville, as you said, doesn't come to the US this way. 673 00:35:59,720 --> 00:36:02,120 It comes across the Mexican border. 674 00:36:02,400 --> 00:36:07,840 But this is mostly cocaine. Cocaine does come from Colombia 675 00:36:08,120 --> 00:36:10,520 and Venezuela. These were not fishing boats. 676 00:36:10,520 --> 00:36:13,920 These were not forest boats. This was drug trafficking. 677 00:36:13,920 --> 00:36:16,440 Nevertheless, we've been handling this for years and 678 00:36:16,440 --> 00:36:20,480 years by having the Coast Guard stop the boat and arrest people 679 00:36:20,800 --> 00:36:23,640 and then bring them to court and let's see if you can can convict 680 00:36:23,640 --> 00:36:26,640 them. This is something new. 681 00:36:27,880 --> 00:36:29,880 Will. Will President Trump get away 682 00:36:29,880 --> 00:36:31,680 with it? Yes, I think he will get away 683 00:36:31,680 --> 00:36:32,560 with it. Do. 684 00:36:32,560 --> 00:36:35,040 You approve. No, I don't approve. 685 00:36:35,440 --> 00:36:37,480 Look, I don't approve of drug trafficking. 686 00:36:37,640 --> 00:36:41,920 I think there's people belonging in jail, but I think they also 687 00:36:42,640 --> 00:36:45,960 need a trial before they're killed is. 688 00:36:45,960 --> 00:36:48,560 There any evidence, as the administration has suggested, 689 00:36:48,560 --> 00:36:52,200 that Nicolas Maduro, the president of Venezuela, is the 690 00:36:52,200 --> 00:36:54,800 head of a gang of of a cartel of a drugs cartel. 691 00:36:55,280 --> 00:36:58,920 Yes. And I think that that his regime 692 00:36:59,600 --> 00:37:03,520 really at the very least protects the drug traffickers 693 00:37:03,880 --> 00:37:08,480 and profits from lives off the profits of drug trafficking. 694 00:37:08,760 --> 00:37:11,880 So I think he's he's in it and I think really everyone who 695 00:37:11,880 --> 00:37:14,000 investigates it, he's in it up to his neck. 696 00:37:15,200 --> 00:37:18,640 And is the idea that you, you change Venezuela, you know, you, 697 00:37:18,720 --> 00:37:22,200 you get rid of Maduro, as you said, you know, through the 698 00:37:22,800 --> 00:37:25,640 elements of the Venezuelan military opposition on the 699 00:37:25,640 --> 00:37:27,680 ground, the people who were elected but who had the 700 00:37:27,680 --> 00:37:30,680 elections stolen from them? And does that then send, is it 701 00:37:30,680 --> 00:37:33,320 supposed to send a message to the rest of the continent? 702 00:37:33,560 --> 00:37:36,000 You know, we can do it here. We can also do it over there. 703 00:37:36,360 --> 00:37:39,120 Well, I think it's supposed to send a message to Cuba and 704 00:37:39,120 --> 00:37:42,560 Nicaragua. In fact, Maduro has all of his 705 00:37:42,560 --> 00:37:46,160 years in power been giving somewhere between 30,000 and 706 00:37:46,160 --> 00:37:50,360 50,000 barrels a day of oil to Cuba for free. 707 00:37:50,600 --> 00:37:54,000 Cuban economy is in bad shape. It's not a democratic government 708 00:37:54,000 --> 00:37:57,720 that stopped that subsidy. That regime might fall, too. 709 00:37:58,160 --> 00:38:00,800 And the regime in Nicaragua, I think, is also very shaky. 710 00:38:00,800 --> 00:38:03,680 The economy is very shaky. That would be the kind of 711 00:38:03,680 --> 00:38:07,760 achievement that I think Trump would like in his three years to 712 00:38:07,760 --> 00:38:11,920 go in power. And how important is Marco Rubio 713 00:38:11,920 --> 00:38:13,240 in all this? Because at the beginning of the 714 00:38:13,240 --> 00:38:16,120 administration, there was, as we discussed earlier, this sort of 715 00:38:16,120 --> 00:38:20,000 vague outline of a deal, resources for for staying in 716 00:38:20,000 --> 00:38:24,040 power in terms of Maduro. And then Marco Rubio gets 717 00:38:24,040 --> 00:38:26,080 involved and it becomes much more aggressive. 718 00:38:27,120 --> 00:38:30,840 Well, I would say the the whole Florida delegation feels that 719 00:38:30,840 --> 00:38:32,080 way. It's a Florida thing. 720 00:38:32,760 --> 00:38:34,520 It's Rubio. It's the White House teacher of 721 00:38:34,520 --> 00:38:38,320 staff Susie Wiles. It's the senators and members of 722 00:38:38,320 --> 00:38:41,160 the of the House of Representatives from Florida. 723 00:38:42,120 --> 00:38:45,360 And again, that that deal with Maduro would have done nothing 724 00:38:45,360 --> 00:38:48,160 on migration, which is another problem here. 725 00:38:48,360 --> 00:38:53,400 So I think, yeah, Maduro, Maduro has the problem that there's 726 00:38:53,400 --> 00:38:57,840 enormous interests of Americans, of Venezuelan Americans, of the 727 00:38:57,840 --> 00:39:03,280 Secretary of State in Venezuela. And I know they're, you know, 728 00:39:03,320 --> 00:39:05,640 obviously they're this administration cares deeply 729 00:39:05,640 --> 00:39:08,320 about illegal migration across the border. 730 00:39:08,920 --> 00:39:11,360 I also know that a lot of Venezuelans that I spoke to in 731 00:39:11,360 --> 00:39:15,240 Florida who voted for Trump, who loved Trump, are really upset by 732 00:39:15,240 --> 00:39:18,080 the number of Venezuelans in their community have been sent 733 00:39:18,080 --> 00:39:20,840 packing back across the border. Even if they weren't bad 734 00:39:20,840 --> 00:39:22,520 hombres, as the president might say. 735 00:39:23,160 --> 00:39:25,440 Is that something to do with it? You know, keep the Venezuelans 736 00:39:25,440 --> 00:39:27,440 happy because they really want Maduro to go. 737 00:39:28,040 --> 00:39:30,480 If you can do that, then they'll forgive you a few other things 738 00:39:30,480 --> 00:39:32,800 that have gone wrong. And of course, they matter in 739 00:39:32,800 --> 00:39:34,160 Florida because they vote in Florida. 740 00:39:34,160 --> 00:39:36,920 And although Florida's no longer a swing state, it could 741 00:39:36,960 --> 00:39:38,800 potentially swing back to the Democrats. 742 00:39:38,800 --> 00:39:42,400 It's complicated because many of the Venezuelans in question are 743 00:39:42,400 --> 00:39:44,640 not yet citizens, so they can't vote. 744 00:39:44,960 --> 00:39:47,560 There's a there's a complete contradiction or anomaly here. 745 00:39:47,560 --> 00:39:50,440 On the one hand, the president, the administration is saying 746 00:39:50,640 --> 00:39:53,800 Venezuela's hell. On the other hand, they're 747 00:39:53,800 --> 00:39:57,120 saying go back. It just, you know, it makes no 748 00:39:57,120 --> 00:39:59,080 sense. I don't think very many people 749 00:39:59,080 --> 00:40:02,080 have been sent back. But the ones who are in Florida, 750 00:40:02,080 --> 00:40:05,920 of course, live in a kind of limbo, live in fear that they 751 00:40:05,920 --> 00:40:09,520 might be tomorrow morning. I think that was a frankly, a 752 00:40:09,520 --> 00:40:11,440 terrible move on the part of the president. 753 00:40:11,520 --> 00:40:13,720 You want to get rid of Mcguro? Get rid of Mcguro. 754 00:40:14,840 --> 00:40:17,640 They can have a democratic regime help them rebuild the 755 00:40:17,640 --> 00:40:20,920 economy as in Argentina, and then you won't get these 756 00:40:20,920 --> 00:40:23,360 outflows. That's the way to do it, not 757 00:40:23,560 --> 00:40:25,800 grabbing people off the street and sending them back to 758 00:40:25,800 --> 00:40:28,720 Venezuela. And of course, if you try some 759 00:40:28,720 --> 00:40:31,240 kind of regime change or whatever you want to call it, 760 00:40:31,240 --> 00:40:34,440 and it goes horribly wrong and you destabilize the country even 761 00:40:34,440 --> 00:40:39,400 more, instead of creating a safe place for them to return to, you 762 00:40:39,400 --> 00:40:43,520 might actually trigger an even greater outflow of Venezuelans 763 00:40:43,520 --> 00:40:46,280 that might end up coming to your country, the US. 764 00:40:46,920 --> 00:40:51,160 Well, I think for those reasons and many others, I think the 765 00:40:51,160 --> 00:40:55,000 president should realize, you know, he's halfway down the road 766 00:40:55,000 --> 00:40:57,600 here. Somebody's going to win this. 767 00:40:57,600 --> 00:40:59,720 It's going to be Nicolas Maduro or Donald Trump. 768 00:40:59,960 --> 00:41:03,480 One or the other is going to look triumphant in, you know, 769 00:41:03,560 --> 00:41:06,680 three months, six months. And if the president thinks he 770 00:41:06,680 --> 00:41:10,360 can just sort of change his mind and pull back now and say, oh, 771 00:41:10,360 --> 00:41:12,760 never mind, I don't think that's going to work. 772 00:41:13,200 --> 00:41:15,840 So finally then Elliot, who is going to win this, do you think? 773 00:41:17,480 --> 00:41:21,000 I would bet on Donald Trump. And when? 774 00:41:22,240 --> 00:41:25,800 Well, you can't keep that flotilla including our largest 775 00:41:25,800 --> 00:41:29,600 aircraft carrier in the Caribbean for, you know, for a 776 00:41:29,600 --> 00:41:32,920 year. I mean, I'm thinking maybe not 777 00:41:33,360 --> 00:41:37,200 this year, there aren't that many weeks left this year, but 778 00:41:38,360 --> 00:41:40,520 three to six months I'd say is the window. 779 00:41:41,320 --> 00:41:45,280 Springtime in Caracas. See you there. 780 00:41:46,280 --> 00:41:48,440 OK, Ellen Abrams, thank you very much. 781 00:41:48,440 --> 00:41:50,480 It's been a real pleasure. You're welcome. 782 00:41:52,000 --> 00:41:54,200 That's it for this week. We hope you enjoyed the show. 783 00:41:54,200 --> 00:41:56,600 We certainly did. And can I just urge you to 784 00:41:56,600 --> 00:41:59,480 subscribe to Trump World to the podcast. 785 00:41:59,840 --> 00:42:01,640 It really makes a huge difference for us. 786 00:42:01,640 --> 00:42:04,240 And of course, you can always send your comments, your 787 00:42:04,240 --> 00:42:08,360 suggestions about questions to ask or topics to broach or, you 788 00:42:08,360 --> 00:42:11,320 know, comments to make. I mean, we are all members of 789 00:42:11,320 --> 00:42:12,720 Trump World. Let's face it, we're all 790 00:42:12,720 --> 00:42:15,680 citizens in Trump World. So let's make the most of it 791 00:42:15,960 --> 00:42:17,240 from Anushka me. That's it. 792 00:42:17,240 --> 00:42:18,240 See you next Wednesday.