1 00:00:00,040 --> 00:00:02,240 Donald Trump loves that phrase, you know. 2 00:00:02,240 --> 00:00:05,120 Oh, the Iranians don't have any of the cards. 3 00:00:05,600 --> 00:00:08,920 You begin to wonder how many cards Donald Trump has. 4 00:00:08,920 --> 00:00:11,840 And if he does have cards, he just seems to throw them all up 5 00:00:11,840 --> 00:00:14,440 in the air every day or every other day, and we just see where 6 00:00:14,440 --> 00:00:17,320 they land. It's basically no peace, no war, 7 00:00:17,320 --> 00:00:22,280 and that's likely to have spikes in in escalation like we had 8 00:00:22,280 --> 00:00:25,080 last night when the US and Israel struck at Iranian 9 00:00:25,080 --> 00:00:27,000 targets. The deal that's being spoken 10 00:00:27,000 --> 00:00:31,480 about right now is a very temporary, very limited deal, 11 00:00:31,480 --> 00:00:33,560 which means that we're right back where we started. 12 00:00:33,560 --> 00:00:36,680 As long as you have the threat, you have power. 13 00:00:36,960 --> 00:00:41,840 But once you've used the threat and it doesn't work out, well, 14 00:00:42,240 --> 00:00:43,400 then you've got nothing, have you? 15 00:00:48,200 --> 00:00:49,480 Hello and welcome to Trump World. 16 00:00:49,480 --> 00:00:52,840 I'm Anoushka Astana in Washington DC Matt is still 17 00:00:52,840 --> 00:00:56,400 away, but I am delighted about who we've got for you in London. 18 00:00:57,160 --> 00:00:59,520 I'm Lindsay Hilson, the international editor of Channel 19 00:00:59,520 --> 00:01:01,280 4 News Lovely to talk to you, Anushka. 20 00:01:01,720 --> 00:01:05,880 So lovely to talk to you. And on a day that we are back 21 00:01:05,880 --> 00:01:10,000 speaking about Iran, although I do feel a little bit like we're 22 00:01:10,000 --> 00:01:14,120 going round in circles here, like each morning I wake up, I 23 00:01:14,120 --> 00:01:18,400 look at a tweet by Axios's Barack Ravid. 24 00:01:18,400 --> 00:01:22,160 I feel like we're a step closer and then there are self defence 25 00:01:22,160 --> 00:01:23,560 strikes like we've seen overnight. 26 00:01:24,000 --> 00:01:25,560 What do you think's going on, Lindsay? 27 00:01:26,000 --> 00:01:28,440 Well, self defence strikes, that's what the Americans are 28 00:01:28,440 --> 00:01:31,160 calling them. It seems as if it's possible 29 00:01:31,160 --> 00:01:35,200 that the Iranians were reconstituting their ballistic 30 00:01:35,200 --> 00:01:40,160 missiles and also manoeuvres very near the Strait of Hormuz. 31 00:01:40,160 --> 00:01:43,080 So the Americans went in and and took those out. 32 00:01:43,080 --> 00:01:46,160 Now, is that a breach of the ceasefire? 33 00:01:46,160 --> 00:01:49,200 Strictly speaking, yes. And at the same time, you have 34 00:01:49,200 --> 00:01:52,160 this sort of tumult of contradictory things from 35 00:01:52,160 --> 00:01:55,000 President Trump. So he says, oh, we're very, very 36 00:01:55,000 --> 00:01:58,000 near a deal. And then he says, oh, take your 37 00:01:58,000 --> 00:02:00,280 time. And then he suddenly says, oh, 38 00:02:00,280 --> 00:02:02,920 and by the way, everybody involved in negotiating this 39 00:02:02,920 --> 00:02:07,080 deal, Pakistan, Qatar and so on, you also have to sign up to the 40 00:02:07,120 --> 00:02:10,560 Abraham Accords. Those are the accords in which 41 00:02:10,560 --> 00:02:14,160 Bahrain and the UAE agreed to recognise the the state of 42 00:02:14,160 --> 00:02:18,120 Israel a few years back. And so he throws all of these 43 00:02:18,120 --> 00:02:22,640 different elements in. And if it's hard for you and me 44 00:02:22,640 --> 00:02:26,640 to keep up, I think it's pretty hard for the Pakistanis, the 45 00:02:26,640 --> 00:02:29,640 Qataris and the Iranians to keep up, too. 46 00:02:30,120 --> 00:02:33,640 And the impression that it gives, you know, Donald Trump 47 00:02:33,840 --> 00:02:36,640 loves that phrase. You know, oh, the Iranians don't 48 00:02:36,640 --> 00:02:39,840 have any of the cards. You begin to wonder how many 49 00:02:39,840 --> 00:02:43,280 cards Donald Trump has. And if he does have cards, he 50 00:02:43,280 --> 00:02:46,320 just seems to throw them all up in the air every day or every 51 00:02:46,320 --> 00:02:47,960 other day. And we just see where they land. 52 00:02:48,000 --> 00:02:50,280 I mean, it feels to me like what we do know is that he 53 00:02:50,280 --> 00:02:51,920 desperately wants out of the war. 54 00:02:51,920 --> 00:02:54,840 It's extremely unpopular here in the US. 55 00:02:54,840 --> 00:02:57,680 He still has good support among Republicans, but among 56 00:02:57,680 --> 00:03:01,600 independents and everyone else, there has been this really sharp 57 00:03:01,600 --> 00:03:04,800 shift away from him, not least because every time you fill up 58 00:03:04,800 --> 00:03:09,000 your car here, you really feel it in the petrol pump and oil 59 00:03:09,000 --> 00:03:12,120 prices have really affected things day-to-day for Americans 60 00:03:12,120 --> 00:03:14,160 here. And, and now it's just finding 61 00:03:14,160 --> 00:03:18,440 out a way out that feels graceful to him, I guess. 62 00:03:18,440 --> 00:03:22,640 And particularly, I always feel like this is like a real driving 63 00:03:22,640 --> 00:03:25,520 desire for Donald Trump that feels like it's something better 64 00:03:25,760 --> 00:03:30,720 than Barack Obama got back in 2015 with the JCPOA, the Joint 65 00:03:31,320 --> 00:03:34,880 Comprehensive Plan of Action, which was Iran Deal. 66 00:03:35,320 --> 00:03:39,240 It feels like to me what we're edging towards here is not a 67 00:03:39,240 --> 00:03:44,640 deal, but a extended ceasefire in which we negotiate a deal. 68 00:03:45,240 --> 00:03:48,400 Do you think for the Iranians, they're getting closer to a 69 00:03:48,400 --> 00:03:51,320 point where they are desperate for a way out of this? 70 00:03:51,960 --> 00:03:55,120 I don't think that the Iranians are desperate, no, not in the 71 00:03:55,120 --> 00:03:57,240 same way. They don't have, you know, 72 00:03:57,240 --> 00:04:01,080 electoral problems. They repress their their people 73 00:04:01,080 --> 00:04:04,800 and they just keep them where they are as much as they can, I 74 00:04:04,800 --> 00:04:07,160 think. Look, Donald Trump is all 75 00:04:07,160 --> 00:04:10,400 tactics and no strategy. And the Iranians are all 76 00:04:10,400 --> 00:04:13,120 strategy. They have been working on this 77 00:04:13,120 --> 00:04:15,280 for 47 years. They have known that there is a 78 00:04:15,280 --> 00:04:18,760 danger of being attacked by the US and Israel. 79 00:04:18,760 --> 00:04:22,920 So they have worked out what to do and they have found that they 80 00:04:22,920 --> 00:04:26,160 did a lot better under fire than they were expecting. 81 00:04:26,160 --> 00:04:31,160 So they take the control of the of the Strait of Hormuz and find 82 00:04:31,160 --> 00:04:32,920 out. I mean, they always knew they 83 00:04:32,920 --> 00:04:36,840 had leverage, but oh, they have a lot more leverage than they 84 00:04:36,840 --> 00:04:40,520 really thought that they did. And for Trump, I think that came 85 00:04:40,520 --> 00:04:43,680 as a bit of a surprise. Now, I think we know that Trump 86 00:04:43,680 --> 00:04:46,160 is not AI don't think he's a student of history, and I 87 00:04:46,160 --> 00:04:48,600 certainly don't think he's a student of Greek mythology. 88 00:04:48,880 --> 00:04:51,640 But you know, you remember the sword of Damocles. 89 00:04:51,880 --> 00:04:57,840 It hangs over Damocles head by a horse hair, but it never falls. 90 00:04:57,840 --> 00:05:02,320 And yet he's terrified. He feels the onus of power and 91 00:05:02,320 --> 00:05:05,040 what he can and can't do because the sword is always there. 92 00:05:06,000 --> 00:05:08,800 But that's what it was like for Iran. 93 00:05:08,800 --> 00:05:11,440 It was always hanging over their head, but now it's fallen. 94 00:05:11,840 --> 00:05:14,120 All it did was a few cuts here and there. 95 00:05:14,320 --> 00:05:17,320 So they're no longer afraid of the sword of Damocles. 96 00:05:17,520 --> 00:05:23,160 So I think that they end up in a much stronger position, even 97 00:05:23,160 --> 00:05:26,920 though tactically they have lost out because of course they have 98 00:05:26,920 --> 00:05:32,640 been damaged militarily. And As for the JCPOA, yeah, that 99 00:05:32,640 --> 00:05:36,160 was, you know, negotiated. The, the, the final negotiations 100 00:05:36,160 --> 00:05:38,520 were two years. The whole thing was 13 years. 101 00:05:38,760 --> 00:05:42,640 I remember those 13 years because I, I followed every 102 00:05:42,640 --> 00:05:49,560 twist and turn of it. And it it did stop Iran from 103 00:05:50,160 --> 00:05:53,480 developing a nuclear weapon for a period of time. 104 00:05:54,120 --> 00:05:57,600 But, you know, it didn't really work out for Iran because the 105 00:05:57,600 --> 00:06:00,160 Americans never lifted the sanctions. 106 00:06:00,160 --> 00:06:03,240 The Europeans tried, but they couldn't really do it because 107 00:06:03,280 --> 00:06:05,760 other American sanctions remained. 108 00:06:06,120 --> 00:06:11,160 So Iran actually has very little incentive to go back into any 109 00:06:11,160 --> 00:06:14,280 kind of deal, even one like the JCPOA. 110 00:06:14,840 --> 00:06:18,240 And we all know with Donald Trump, once again, he pulled out 111 00:06:18,240 --> 00:06:22,480 of that deal because it was negotiated by Obama, not because 112 00:06:22,480 --> 00:06:24,560 he had any understanding of what it did. 113 00:06:24,680 --> 00:06:29,840 And again, that was tactics. He had no strategy, no idea what 114 00:06:29,840 --> 00:06:32,880 to do instead. And and you point out how many 115 00:06:32,880 --> 00:06:35,960 years it took to negotiate, perhaps then it would be 116 00:06:35,960 --> 00:06:40,880 optimistic to think that in a 60 day period, for example, of 117 00:06:40,880 --> 00:06:44,120 ceasefire to negotiate that we're going to solve all the 118 00:06:44,120 --> 00:06:47,600 problems that we have. Although just one thing on the 119 00:06:48,080 --> 00:06:51,000 Iranian mentality, I think we all understand now that that 120 00:06:51,280 --> 00:06:55,480 kind of desire to survive, that instinct to survive is 121 00:06:55,640 --> 00:06:58,480 overwhelming. And they will fight to the 122 00:06:58,480 --> 00:07:00,280 bitter end. However much they're being 123 00:07:00,280 --> 00:07:05,640 pummelled, there must come like a moment where the leadership is 124 00:07:05,640 --> 00:07:09,280 taken out layer by layer by layer, where the people in 125 00:07:09,280 --> 00:07:12,760 charge, and we've seen a bit of this, haven't we, are fragmented 126 00:07:12,840 --> 00:07:15,560 that there are differing objectives, there's the harder 127 00:07:15,560 --> 00:07:19,080 line side of what's going on, and there are those who are 128 00:07:19,080 --> 00:07:22,920 keener to make a deal. Is there a moment at which those 129 00:07:22,920 --> 00:07:27,280 fragmentations lead to a point where America regains its 130 00:07:27,280 --> 00:07:29,880 advantage? Look, I don't know. 131 00:07:29,880 --> 00:07:34,480 I'm, I'm not a prophet and it's a while since I was in Iran, but 132 00:07:34,480 --> 00:07:38,200 I would say that the Revolutionary Guard, the IRGC is 133 00:07:38,200 --> 00:07:43,720 nowhere near as ideological as the former supreme leader and 134 00:07:43,720 --> 00:07:46,280 probably as the current supreme leader, his son. 135 00:07:46,600 --> 00:07:50,800 And so I think that the IRGC, if it wants to do a deal or it 136 00:07:50,800 --> 00:07:53,960 comes to a point where it thinks it's to its advantage to do a 137 00:07:53,960 --> 00:07:58,600 deal, we'll do that because they don't have any ideological 138 00:07:58,600 --> 00:08:01,960 reason to say no, We, we can't do that. 139 00:08:01,960 --> 00:08:04,760 We can't deal with the the Great Satan, so on. 140 00:08:05,080 --> 00:08:08,840 So I think that what the Iranians are much more 141 00:08:08,840 --> 00:08:12,760 concentrating on now is relationships within the region 142 00:08:12,840 --> 00:08:17,360 because obviously they have totally alienated the Gulf Arab 143 00:08:17,360 --> 00:08:19,120 countries. And I was talking to somebody 144 00:08:19,120 --> 00:08:23,440 very senior in Saudi Arabia the other day and he was absolutely 145 00:08:23,440 --> 00:08:27,360 clear that the the Iranians, they had to reopen the Strait of 146 00:08:27,360 --> 00:08:30,000 Hormuz. It was unacceptable to have to 147 00:08:30,000 --> 00:08:32,799 pay anything. This would have to be have to be 148 00:08:32,799 --> 00:08:35,880 dealt with. He was, he described the Iranian 149 00:08:35,880 --> 00:08:39,440 position as a maximalist. But having said that, there is 150 00:08:39,440 --> 00:08:43,200 talk at the moment about there being some kind of arrangement 151 00:08:43,440 --> 00:08:48,360 between Gulf Arab countries and Iran which would in which they 152 00:08:48,360 --> 00:08:52,400 would sort all that stuff out between them, some kind of non 153 00:08:52,400 --> 00:08:55,400 aggression pact, some kind of way forward. 154 00:08:55,760 --> 00:09:00,600 So if that is possible, I can see a way in which both Israel 155 00:09:01,160 --> 00:09:07,360 and the US get cut out of that, and then both Israel and the US 156 00:09:07,560 --> 00:09:11,200 have their position thoroughly weakened in the region because 157 00:09:11,200 --> 00:09:15,000 they can't pit the Gulf Arab countries against Iran if the 158 00:09:15,000 --> 00:09:17,840 Gulf Arab countries have come to their own deal with Iran. 159 00:09:18,840 --> 00:09:20,840 One thing that's really interesting is you mentioned the 160 00:09:20,840 --> 00:09:25,960 Abraham Accords, which were of course signed previously as a 161 00:09:25,960 --> 00:09:28,560 kind of defence pact almost with Israel. 162 00:09:28,560 --> 00:09:31,800 And Donald Trump just the other day seemed to have suggested to 163 00:09:31,800 --> 00:09:36,360 other countries maybe they could all join it, which apparently 164 00:09:36,360 --> 00:09:39,000 was met by silence. And you know, what's really 165 00:09:39,000 --> 00:09:42,240 interesting is speaking to sources, diplomatic sources here 166 00:09:42,240 --> 00:09:45,320 in the US from those particular Gulf countries. 167 00:09:45,320 --> 00:09:48,720 Is that absolutely clear that they're not going to sign up to 168 00:09:48,720 --> 00:09:51,840 anything that doesn't recognize a Palestinian state? 169 00:09:52,120 --> 00:09:56,320 And Israel clearly is nowhere near a position where they're 170 00:09:56,320 --> 00:09:59,480 going to acknowledge a Palestinian state, in which case 171 00:09:59,480 --> 00:10:02,440 it is an absolute no go for some of the countries we're talking 172 00:10:02,440 --> 00:10:06,680 about, like Qatar, like Saudi, to try and sign up to, you know, 173 00:10:06,680 --> 00:10:09,320 some sort of agreement for Israel within that. 174 00:10:09,320 --> 00:10:13,120 And, and that dynamic between Donald Trump and Benjamin 175 00:10:13,120 --> 00:10:17,000 Netanyahu is really interesting because it is very clear that 176 00:10:17,000 --> 00:10:20,360 Benjamin Netanyahu doesn't want out in anything like the same 177 00:10:20,360 --> 00:10:23,200 way Donald Trump wants out. And in the meantime is 178 00:10:23,200 --> 00:10:27,480 continuing with the conflict in Lebanon, where you've obviously 179 00:10:27,480 --> 00:10:31,200 spent a lot of time. I mean, how do you think that 180 00:10:31,200 --> 00:10:34,040 impacts on the wider conversations here? 181 00:10:34,320 --> 00:10:38,000 Both Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu are believers in 182 00:10:38,000 --> 00:10:41,040 military force. They think that military force 183 00:10:41,040 --> 00:10:45,840 solves problems, whereas most senior soldiers officers you 184 00:10:45,840 --> 00:10:48,880 speak to say no, no, no, it doesn't solve problems. 185 00:10:48,880 --> 00:10:52,400 It puts you in a different place or it creates different 186 00:10:52,400 --> 00:10:55,160 problems, but it doesn't solve an issue. 187 00:10:55,200 --> 00:10:59,560 Issues like this between countries are solved in the end 188 00:10:59,560 --> 00:11:02,440 if they are solved diplomatically or they are 189 00:11:02,440 --> 00:11:06,680 parked and they are left there in order to either dissolve if 190 00:11:06,680 --> 00:11:10,160 it's a question of enemy, you know, enmity and hatred, or to 191 00:11:10,160 --> 00:11:12,280 be solved when the situation differs. 192 00:11:12,840 --> 00:11:16,440 And Benjamin Netanyahu is a great believer in this. 193 00:11:16,440 --> 00:11:19,920 He's this was his war. He said this will do it. 194 00:11:20,120 --> 00:11:23,720 This will change the regime in Iran and Iran will no longer 195 00:11:23,720 --> 00:11:26,840 threatened Israel. Well, didn't quite work out like 196 00:11:26,840 --> 00:11:30,160 that, did it? And now there he is continuing 197 00:11:30,160 --> 00:11:34,040 with the same policy on Lebanon. Now Lebanon is really 198 00:11:34,040 --> 00:11:36,280 interesting because we're beginning to see the future of 199 00:11:36,280 --> 00:11:39,560 warfare there in the same way as we have seen it in Ukraine. 200 00:11:40,000 --> 00:11:43,480 And that is the use of drones. So apparently in the last 8 201 00:11:43,480 --> 00:11:51,320 days, Hezbollah has fired 1000 drones into Israel and also into 202 00:11:51,320 --> 00:11:53,480 places, you know, which the Israelis are occupying the 203 00:11:53,480 --> 00:11:56,520 southern part of Lebanon. So at, at formations of Israeli 204 00:11:56,520 --> 00:11:59,240 soldiers there. And they've killed about, I 205 00:11:59,240 --> 00:12:04,240 think 10 soldiers in in, in the recent, you know, in the recent 206 00:12:04,240 --> 00:12:07,720 months. And drones are now falling. 207 00:12:07,720 --> 00:12:11,760 One fell in a house in Mutula that's in northern Israel, and 208 00:12:11,760 --> 00:12:14,600 one on a bus shelter somewhere else in northern Israel, I think 209 00:12:14,600 --> 00:12:19,480 over the weekend. And this is asymmetric warfare. 210 00:12:20,040 --> 00:12:22,560 This is David and Goliath stuff. This is very difficult. 211 00:12:22,560 --> 00:12:27,920 Your Iron Dome that doesn't deal with drones, as the Russians are 212 00:12:27,920 --> 00:12:32,160 finding out with the Ukrainians. And these are fibre optic 213 00:12:32,160 --> 00:12:34,160 drones, which you can't jam them either. 214 00:12:34,680 --> 00:12:39,120 And so we're entering a whole new kind of warfare. 215 00:12:39,680 --> 00:12:44,800 And so Netanyahu's idea that because Israel has the greater 216 00:12:44,800 --> 00:12:48,280 military strength, which of course it does, it will in the 217 00:12:48,280 --> 00:12:50,920 end prevail and this problem will be over. 218 00:12:51,400 --> 00:12:56,800 No, it will not be over because the technology changes and 219 00:12:56,800 --> 00:13:01,520 because every time you launch a war like this, the situation 220 00:13:01,520 --> 00:13:04,960 changes and and a different kind of diplomacy is is needed. 221 00:13:05,400 --> 00:13:10,520 So I think we've just ended up in a situation moment where 222 00:13:11,320 --> 00:13:15,280 Trump and Netanyahu are in very different positions because it 223 00:13:15,280 --> 00:13:18,120 didn't work. Trump thinks, oh, we can just 224 00:13:18,120 --> 00:13:21,080 say that we changed the regime in Iran. 225 00:13:21,200 --> 00:13:23,200 It worked. Look, the regime has changed. 226 00:13:23,200 --> 00:13:27,080 The supreme leader has changed. Netanyahu knows that's not true. 227 00:13:27,360 --> 00:13:29,440 He wants to have another go at Iran. 228 00:13:29,600 --> 00:13:32,040 And I guess one thing we're now wondering is what does a deal 229 00:13:32,040 --> 00:13:35,200 look like that Donald Trump thinks he can sell to Americans 230 00:13:35,200 --> 00:13:39,120 as better than the Obama deal? The Obama deal did have 231 00:13:39,120 --> 00:13:43,600 weaknesses, but it essentially, as you said, did an exchange in 232 00:13:43,600 --> 00:13:46,840 which there were a lifting of sanctions for Iran in return for 233 00:13:46,840 --> 00:13:51,200 them agreeing to massively limit the enrichment of uranium and to 234 00:13:51,200 --> 00:13:53,360 allow inspectors to come into the country. 235 00:13:53,360 --> 00:13:55,760 There are weaknesses because there were sunset clauses. 236 00:13:56,000 --> 00:13:57,640 It didn't really deal with missiles. 237 00:13:57,800 --> 00:14:00,280 I think the Americans and the Israelis would argue that they 238 00:14:00,280 --> 00:14:05,200 have massively now degraded the military equipment and abilities 239 00:14:05,440 --> 00:14:08,160 of Iran at the moment, and they will see that as they win. 240 00:14:08,160 --> 00:14:10,560 They have clearly decimated the Navy. 241 00:14:11,120 --> 00:14:14,400 Donald Trump talks a lot about the number of Iranian ships at 242 00:14:14,400 --> 00:14:17,120 the bottom of the sea. But ultimately, if he wants to 243 00:14:17,120 --> 00:14:19,400 have something that looks better than that, he needs a longer 244 00:14:19,400 --> 00:14:23,880 time period in terms of an agreement on stopping nuclear 245 00:14:23,880 --> 00:14:25,920 enrichment. He probably wants them to say 246 00:14:25,920 --> 00:14:28,320 there's not going to be any enrichment at all. 247 00:14:28,440 --> 00:14:34,240 He wants to remove the kind of material, the nuclear material 248 00:14:34,240 --> 00:14:38,480 that exists after American and Israeli strikes last June 249 00:14:38,760 --> 00:14:42,840 obliterated, or that's what they said obliterated the nuclear 250 00:14:42,840 --> 00:14:46,200 facilities out of Iran and into another country. 251 00:14:46,200 --> 00:14:48,400 At one point they were talking about Pakistan, but a lot of 252 00:14:48,400 --> 00:14:51,200 other countries, including Israel, wouldn't be happy with 253 00:14:51,200 --> 00:14:53,880 that. And, and the thing that Donald 254 00:14:53,880 --> 00:14:57,600 Trump always talks about is this idea that Obama sent cash on 255 00:14:57,600 --> 00:15:01,760 planes to Iran, so he needs to send less money. 256 00:15:02,160 --> 00:15:07,920 Every kind of, you know, look at what a deal could end up like. 257 00:15:07,920 --> 00:15:10,240 Feels to me very similar to that. 258 00:15:10,280 --> 00:15:13,600 I mean, do you think it is likely that at this stage there 259 00:15:13,600 --> 00:15:17,040 are wins that Donald Trump can get that would take you beyond 260 00:15:17,400 --> 00:15:21,200 that JCPOA, which we should say was negotiated without any war? 261 00:15:21,560 --> 00:15:23,840 I think that what we're initially talking about is just 262 00:15:23,840 --> 00:15:26,680 a one page memorandum, isn't it, which is about the straight and 263 00:15:26,680 --> 00:15:31,640 four moves and then the nuclear stuff would be negotiated 264 00:15:31,680 --> 00:15:33,600 downline they say, within 60 days. 265 00:15:33,600 --> 00:15:36,080 Well, that's for the birds. But I think we should look to 266 00:15:36,080 --> 00:15:39,120 Gaza. So the Gaza war came sort of to 267 00:15:39,120 --> 00:15:41,280 an end with a ceasefire and then there was supposed to be a 268 00:15:41,280 --> 00:15:43,720 second stage and the third stage and a fourth stage. 269 00:15:44,000 --> 00:15:47,760 There is no second, third and 4th stages and I can't really 270 00:15:47,760 --> 00:15:50,960 see how there will be. I think that there is less 271 00:15:50,960 --> 00:15:54,000 conflict. The Israelis are attacking Gaza 272 00:15:54,000 --> 00:15:57,480 less. Hamas is doing very, very 273 00:15:57,480 --> 00:15:59,160 little. It's just clinging on there. 274 00:16:01,160 --> 00:16:05,000 But it's it's stuck. And I suspect we may well see 275 00:16:05,000 --> 00:16:08,760 the same when it comes to Iran, because I don't think it is 276 00:16:08,760 --> 00:16:12,920 possible to negotiate a nuclear deal from a weakened position 277 00:16:13,360 --> 00:16:16,720 because the Americans are actually in a weaker position 278 00:16:16,720 --> 00:16:21,680 now than they were when Obama was was negotiating it. 279 00:16:21,680 --> 00:16:25,600 Because we've discovered the limits of military power. 280 00:16:26,040 --> 00:16:30,880 And I think that, you know, you, it's also a question of who's 281 00:16:30,880 --> 00:16:35,640 negotiating this stuff. Steve Witkoff, Jared Kushner. 282 00:16:35,880 --> 00:16:41,160 They are not people who have an intimate knowledge of all the 283 00:16:41,160 --> 00:16:45,480 complexities of the technical details of Iran's nuclear 284 00:16:45,480 --> 00:16:48,520 program, which Obama's negotiators did. 285 00:16:49,200 --> 00:16:53,120 I mean, I would sit there and listen to this stuff, which 286 00:16:53,120 --> 00:16:56,520 would just make my head spin because I don't understand a lot 287 00:16:56,520 --> 00:16:59,640 about nuclear weaponry when it comes to all the technical 288 00:16:59,640 --> 00:17:02,320 details. But of course, you have to know 289 00:17:02,320 --> 00:17:05,119 all that. And Iran is sending people to 290 00:17:05,119 --> 00:17:09,040 negotiations who know, who've been doing this for decades. 291 00:17:09,319 --> 00:17:11,200 They know all the insurance and outs. 292 00:17:11,800 --> 00:17:15,720 Now, what is not clear to me is the extent to which the program 293 00:17:15,720 --> 00:17:19,400 has been degraded by the 12 year, 12 day war. 294 00:17:19,839 --> 00:17:24,240 And you know, they said Trump said it was obliterated. 295 00:17:24,240 --> 00:17:27,800 Well, that's clearly not true. But the CIA reports and so on, 296 00:17:28,119 --> 00:17:31,840 they haven't been made public. It's not clear to me exactly 297 00:17:31,840 --> 00:17:38,120 what position Iran's nuclear nuclear deterrent is in. 298 00:17:39,240 --> 00:17:44,840 But I suspect we are not going to see the kind of painstaking 299 00:17:44,840 --> 00:17:49,640 negotiation that you need to come to a deal. 300 00:17:49,920 --> 00:17:53,360 You may get some interim thing. There's a lot of money that Iran 301 00:17:53,360 --> 00:17:56,720 has got in Qatar, which Qatar might release to the Iranians. 302 00:17:57,200 --> 00:18:02,080 But I think you come back to the Strait of Hormuz because Iran 303 00:18:02,080 --> 00:18:06,080 has found a method of sanctions relief and it's called the 304 00:18:06,080 --> 00:18:10,000 Strait of Hormuz where you can be paid in cryptocurrency, which 305 00:18:10,000 --> 00:18:12,880 doesn't go through the US system and so it doesn't is not 306 00:18:12,880 --> 00:18:15,880 affected by sanctions. I think that enables them to 307 00:18:15,880 --> 00:18:18,840 hold out for a very long time. And if things proceed as you're 308 00:18:18,840 --> 00:18:22,800 suggesting, in the end, what will America have achieved with 309 00:18:22,800 --> 00:18:25,840 this use of military force? Very little. 310 00:18:26,240 --> 00:18:30,600 So I think you go back to 1993 when Madeleine Albright was the 311 00:18:31,480 --> 00:18:35,440 US ambassador to the UN and she wanted to intervene in Bosnia 312 00:18:35,440 --> 00:18:38,240 and Colin Powell was the head of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. 313 00:18:38,480 --> 00:18:42,120 And she said, what is the point of having this to be per 314 00:18:42,120 --> 00:18:47,800 military if we can't use it? And the answer was the threat. 315 00:18:48,360 --> 00:18:50,680 Always the threat. We're back to the Sword of 316 00:18:50,680 --> 00:18:53,480 Damocles. As long as you have the threat, 317 00:18:53,640 --> 00:18:57,160 you have power. But once you've used the threat 318 00:18:57,680 --> 00:19:02,000 and it doesn't work out, well, then you've got nothing, have 319 00:19:02,000 --> 00:19:04,000 you? Well, that feels like a perfect 320 00:19:04,000 --> 00:19:07,320 point to have a listen to an interview I did earlier with 321 00:19:07,320 --> 00:19:12,120 Dina Esfandiari, the Middle East lead for Bloomberg Economics. 322 00:19:13,360 --> 00:19:17,760 Right now we're at a moment which feels a little bit 323 00:19:17,760 --> 00:19:20,720 Groundhog Day, but also sort of ceasefire. 324 00:19:20,720 --> 00:19:24,120 What ceasefire? How do you assess the current 325 00:19:24,120 --> 00:19:27,520 situation? Well, it's basically no peace, 326 00:19:27,520 --> 00:19:30,680 no war. That's how we view what's going 327 00:19:30,680 --> 00:19:33,800 on right now in the region. And that's essentially a form of 328 00:19:33,800 --> 00:19:38,920 protracted warfare. And that's likely to have spikes 329 00:19:38,960 --> 00:19:42,960 in in escalation like we had last night when the US and 330 00:19:42,960 --> 00:19:46,680 Israel struck at Iranian targets along the strate of hormones. 331 00:19:47,000 --> 00:19:51,400 And then you may have at some stage a even a deal. 332 00:19:51,760 --> 00:19:54,080 But The thing is, the deal that's being spoken about right 333 00:19:54,080 --> 00:19:58,760 now is a very temporary, very limited deal which both sides 334 00:19:58,760 --> 00:20:02,000 are calling an MOU. So it's unlikely to address the 335 00:20:02,000 --> 00:20:05,840 fundamental differences between the US and Iran, which means 336 00:20:05,840 --> 00:20:08,280 that we're right back where we started in this scenario of 337 00:20:08,280 --> 00:20:12,280 protracted conflict. And when you say it's unlikely 338 00:20:12,280 --> 00:20:15,800 to fix fundamentally what they want, I mean, we've been over 339 00:20:15,800 --> 00:20:19,880 this over the weeks. But in your mind, what are the 340 00:20:19,880 --> 00:20:23,520 most important factors for the US, which perhaps we know a bit 341 00:20:23,520 --> 00:20:25,800 more publicly, but especially for Iran? 342 00:20:26,000 --> 00:20:29,320 The most important factors is probably the first one will be 343 00:20:29,320 --> 00:20:32,840 the Strait of Hormuz. I think it's clear that the US 344 00:20:32,840 --> 00:20:37,440 wants a full opening and it's clear that Iran is willing to 345 00:20:37,440 --> 00:20:44,240 entertain some resumption of shipping, a return to some form 346 00:20:44,240 --> 00:20:48,320 of of free flowing shipping. But it won't be as free flowing 347 00:20:48,320 --> 00:20:52,760 as it was before the war because I think Iran is likely to try to 348 00:20:53,280 --> 00:20:56,200 impose some form of control over the Strait of Hormuz. 349 00:20:56,200 --> 00:21:01,120 Now, whether that is in the form of a toll or an environmental 350 00:21:01,120 --> 00:21:08,040 tax or any any kind of financial request for payment from Iran, 351 00:21:08,400 --> 00:21:11,320 and of course, that is exactly what the US wants to avoid. 352 00:21:11,640 --> 00:21:14,720 The second big issue I would say for the US is Iran's nuclear 353 00:21:14,720 --> 00:21:17,080 program. They want a commitment that Iran 354 00:21:17,520 --> 00:21:20,400 won't build a nuclear weapon, which Iran has already committed 355 00:21:20,400 --> 00:21:23,120 to over the years, but they want to go further. 356 00:21:23,120 --> 00:21:26,480 There was talk of no enrichment on Iranian soil. 357 00:21:26,680 --> 00:21:31,720 That's now been scaled back a little bit and it's and, and 358 00:21:31,720 --> 00:21:35,640 we're now at the stage where Iran is, is talking about a 359 00:21:35,640 --> 00:21:39,960 moratorium on enrichment. So there's still a lot of back 360 00:21:39,960 --> 00:21:42,080 and forth. And I would say the third main 361 00:21:42,080 --> 00:21:45,280 sticking point is the timeline of all of this. 362 00:21:45,600 --> 00:21:51,080 Iran wants upfront sanctions relief. the US wants an upfront 363 00:21:51,080 --> 00:21:53,160 reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. 364 00:21:53,720 --> 00:21:57,800 Neither side is is really agreeing on on what the timeline 365 00:21:57,800 --> 00:21:59,800 of the implementation of a deal would look like. 366 00:22:00,360 --> 00:22:02,840 And you've talked before about how Iran didn't want this war to 367 00:22:02,840 --> 00:22:06,680 start, but that there were advantages to Iran of a long 368 00:22:06,680 --> 00:22:08,760 war. I mean, do you still think that 369 00:22:08,760 --> 00:22:12,800 at the moment, surely every country, however ideologically 370 00:22:12,800 --> 00:22:16,440 determined it is to survive, has a breaking point? 371 00:22:16,840 --> 00:22:20,920 No, I do think that Iran doesn't want the war, for sure, for 372 00:22:20,920 --> 00:22:23,360 sure. As you say, no country wants to 373 00:22:23,360 --> 00:22:27,880 have to deal with war. But it has made some gains. 374 00:22:27,920 --> 00:22:31,520 It has learned some really valuable lessons as a result of 375 00:22:31,520 --> 00:22:33,960 this war. Now, arguably, those lessons 376 00:22:33,960 --> 00:22:35,880 have been learned. So it would be good for the war 377 00:22:35,880 --> 00:22:42,440 to end now, but but still, it really has walked away with some 378 00:22:42,440 --> 00:22:45,920 really, really valuable lessons. The first, I think, is that it's 379 00:22:45,920 --> 00:22:49,640 threat to to disrupt shipping in the Strait of Hormuz to impact 380 00:22:49,640 --> 00:22:51,840 the global economy. Well, it turns out it's a 381 00:22:51,840 --> 00:22:54,120 credible threat. Iran's been making it for many 382 00:22:54,120 --> 00:22:56,280 years, but it never really acted out on it. 383 00:22:56,520 --> 00:22:59,280 Now that it has, it worked arguably better than it 384 00:22:59,280 --> 00:23:03,560 expected, for cheaper than it expected and it was much easier 385 00:23:03,560 --> 00:23:06,200 than it expected. And so that's going to be a 386 00:23:06,200 --> 00:23:10,040 lasting lesson of the war, which isn't good for the international 387 00:23:10,040 --> 00:23:12,600 community. The the second thing that it's 388 00:23:12,600 --> 00:23:16,320 learnt, which is also a valuable lesson, is that this US threat 389 00:23:16,320 --> 00:23:20,440 to hit Iran. Sure, it's credible the US can 390 00:23:20,440 --> 00:23:23,480 hit Iran, but it's also learnt all of the things that the US 391 00:23:23,480 --> 00:23:27,400 and Israel can't do to Iran. They can't topple the regime 392 00:23:27,440 --> 00:23:30,600 with just air strikes. It would require much more. 393 00:23:30,800 --> 00:23:33,600 They have limits to what they're able to do. 394 00:23:34,240 --> 00:23:37,520 Their munitions are limited, their missile defenses are 395 00:23:37,520 --> 00:23:41,160 limited, their ability to conduct military operations are 396 00:23:41,160 --> 00:23:45,840 somewhat limited. And so Iran has learnt that for 397 00:23:45,840 --> 00:23:48,400 the United States, the most powerful army in the world, 398 00:23:48,400 --> 00:23:52,360 along with Israel, to be able to change the government in Iran or 399 00:23:52,360 --> 00:23:55,800 to have a real impact on changing the behaviour of the 400 00:23:55,800 --> 00:23:59,640 Islamic Republic, then it would have to commit a lot more at a 401 00:23:59,640 --> 00:24:03,400 much higher cost, and likely with American lives on the line. 402 00:24:03,840 --> 00:24:07,080 And that's a valuable lesson. Is it something that you can 403 00:24:07,080 --> 00:24:11,000 ever see Foresee and U.S. President attempting? 404 00:24:12,240 --> 00:24:15,240 Boots on the ground. I mean, I think on a small scale 405 00:24:15,240 --> 00:24:20,640 perhaps, but I think generally, umm, the Trump administration 406 00:24:20,840 --> 00:24:26,720 has umm, tried to really hook up, uh, the fact that it wants 407 00:24:26,720 --> 00:24:29,960 to end forever wars, that it doesn't want American lives to 408 00:24:29,960 --> 00:24:33,080 be on the line. Umm, so it would be a pretty 409 00:24:33,080 --> 00:24:36,360 significant move for the Trump administration to go back on 410 00:24:36,360 --> 00:24:39,280 some of those commitments. I mean, obviously it feels like 411 00:24:39,280 --> 00:24:41,480 we're stuck at the beginning of another forever war. 412 00:24:41,920 --> 00:24:45,800 Umm, but but it's, it's very different to, to conduct air 413 00:24:45,800 --> 00:24:49,280 strikes from far than it is to really have boots on the ground 414 00:24:49,280 --> 00:24:53,240 and put American lives at risk. Now, American allies and 415 00:24:53,240 --> 00:24:56,160 American partners lives are clearly at risk at the moment. 416 00:24:56,920 --> 00:25:00,480 And some US servicemen have obviously been affected by 417 00:25:00,480 --> 00:25:02,760 Iran's retaliation attacks in the region. 418 00:25:02,960 --> 00:25:05,520 But that's very different to really putting them in the line 419 00:25:05,520 --> 00:25:08,760 of fire, to putting boots on the ground and to having those body 420 00:25:08,760 --> 00:25:11,520 bags come home as a result. Let me ask you about some of 421 00:25:11,520 --> 00:25:14,720 those dynamics with some of the other countries in the region, 422 00:25:15,400 --> 00:25:18,920 First, US, Israel, I mean they have different objectives here, 423 00:25:18,920 --> 00:25:21,520 don't they? And we are seeing a different 424 00:25:22,480 --> 00:25:25,320 strategy, if you like, at the moment, particularly with what 425 00:25:25,320 --> 00:25:28,600 is taking place in Lebanon as opposed to what Donald Trump is 426 00:25:28,600 --> 00:25:31,600 clearly trying to achieve at the moment. 427 00:25:31,600 --> 00:25:34,960 How do you think that is impacting on the possibility of 428 00:25:34,960 --> 00:25:37,520 an actual deal? Well, it's really significant 429 00:25:37,520 --> 00:25:40,680 because what's happening at the moment is negotiations between 430 00:25:40,680 --> 00:25:43,240 the US and Iran. It's hard enough for them to 431 00:25:43,240 --> 00:25:46,520 hash out their differences, but once you throw Israel in the mix 432 00:25:46,520 --> 00:25:49,400 and the fact that it's not a part of these negotiations, 433 00:25:49,640 --> 00:25:51,480 well, then it's a whole other ball game. 434 00:25:52,160 --> 00:25:56,000 As you said, yes, US and Israeli objectives are different. 435 00:25:56,680 --> 00:25:59,680 Although it's a bit difficult to pinpoint American objectives, I 436 00:25:59,680 --> 00:26:03,640 would say that at the moment it's about Trump being able to, 437 00:26:03,800 --> 00:26:07,600 to, to, to call this a win and extricate the US from the war 438 00:26:07,680 --> 00:26:11,520 and perhaps reopen the Strait of Hormuz for Israel. 439 00:26:11,720 --> 00:26:15,280 The objectives remain unchanged. It's about ensuring that Iran 440 00:26:15,280 --> 00:26:19,200 remains weak so that it no longer poses a threat to Israel 441 00:26:19,200 --> 00:26:22,040 in the future. That's very different to us 442 00:26:22,040 --> 00:26:24,560 getting itself out of the war and reopening the Straits of 443 00:26:24,560 --> 00:26:27,840 Hormuz, which is why you're seeing all these differences, 444 00:26:27,840 --> 00:26:31,800 which is why you see President Trump trying to hold Benjamin 445 00:26:31,800 --> 00:26:34,800 Netanyahu on a tight leash and and failing. 446 00:26:35,080 --> 00:26:38,440 It was reported overnight that that Netanyahu called Trump and 447 00:26:38,440 --> 00:26:41,360 said Israel retains the right to defend itself throughout the 448 00:26:41,360 --> 00:26:45,520 region, including in Lebanon. It's why we have a ceasefire in 449 00:26:45,520 --> 00:26:47,160 Lebanon. That's absolutely not being 450 00:26:47,160 --> 00:26:50,680 respected right now and no ones really doing anything about it. 451 00:26:51,040 --> 00:26:54,920 And it's likely to be a huge thorn in the backside of any 452 00:26:54,920 --> 00:26:57,960 deal that that the US and Iran can reach. 453 00:26:58,240 --> 00:27:01,680 Do you think there is no deal without a ceasefire in Lebanon? 454 00:27:02,000 --> 00:27:04,920 I think that that's exactly what Iran is asking for. 455 00:27:04,920 --> 00:27:09,080 Iran is being very pointed in asking for no deal, sorry, and 456 00:27:09,080 --> 00:27:15,080 asking for a permanent end to to the war on all fronts, including 457 00:27:15,080 --> 00:27:17,680 in Lebanon. It's hard to imagine that you 458 00:27:17,680 --> 00:27:21,120 would see a ceasefire without Lebanon being included. 459 00:27:21,480 --> 00:27:24,480 But at the same time, I think that if Iran were to get 460 00:27:24,480 --> 00:27:28,120 everything else it wanted, then it might be able to accept 461 00:27:28,120 --> 00:27:30,840 something that doesn't look like a permanent ceasefire in 462 00:27:30,840 --> 00:27:34,840 Lebanon. Even though it's proxies in the 463 00:27:34,840 --> 00:27:37,800 region, in Lebanon in particular, have led us to this 464 00:27:37,800 --> 00:27:40,040 situation. Well, yeah, I mean, look, 465 00:27:40,080 --> 00:27:44,480 Hezbollah is Irans perhaps one of its most significant proxies, 466 00:27:44,840 --> 00:27:50,080 and it's key in terms of Iranian influence in the region, the 467 00:27:50,080 --> 00:27:54,760 battle lines against Israel. So Iran wouldn't easily give up 468 00:27:54,760 --> 00:27:57,080 on Hezbollah. In fact, I would argue it won't 469 00:27:57,080 --> 00:28:02,760 give up on Hezbollah at all. But finding ways around a 470 00:28:02,760 --> 00:28:08,440 permanent end to all wars, if that remains the only sticking 471 00:28:08,440 --> 00:28:12,520 point in ensuring that the war ends with the USI think it might 472 00:28:12,520 --> 00:28:14,840 be something that Iran might be willing to move on. 473 00:28:15,480 --> 00:28:18,120 But at the end of the day, it still remains a really critical 474 00:28:18,120 --> 00:28:19,600 point. I don't want to undersell that. 475 00:28:19,760 --> 00:28:23,600 And and on the other side, we've got Gulf allies of the US who, 476 00:28:23,600 --> 00:28:26,800 again, didn't want this war, but some of them, it seems, have 477 00:28:26,800 --> 00:28:29,520 since argued for America to finish the job. 478 00:28:29,880 --> 00:28:32,480 And that there appears to have been a moment where Donald Trump 479 00:28:32,480 --> 00:28:36,080 is speaking to some of those allies like Saudi Arabia, like 480 00:28:36,080 --> 00:28:40,720 Qatar, and suggested that perhaps more of them could join 481 00:28:40,720 --> 00:28:45,360 the Abraham Accords, which is trying to essentially have a 482 00:28:45,360 --> 00:28:49,640 deal between them and, and Israel or all of them inside, 483 00:28:49,800 --> 00:28:52,040 you know, a kind of united peace pact. 484 00:28:52,400 --> 00:28:54,400 And apparently he was met by silence. 485 00:28:54,400 --> 00:28:56,680 Does that surprise you? Absolutely not. 486 00:28:56,680 --> 00:29:00,800 It is a total misreading of the region to think that this is the 487 00:29:00,800 --> 00:29:04,920 moment where the United States can ask more of its Gulf Arab 488 00:29:04,920 --> 00:29:06,760 partners. It absolutely isn't. 489 00:29:06,760 --> 00:29:09,720 This is a war they didn't want. It's a war they lobbied hard 490 00:29:09,720 --> 00:29:12,440 against, and it's a war that they've felt the majority of the 491 00:29:12,440 --> 00:29:14,640 brunt of. They've been the victims. 492 00:29:14,640 --> 00:29:16,880 They've the one that's been. They've been the ones that have 493 00:29:16,880 --> 00:29:19,920 been taught targeted by Iran quite significantly. 494 00:29:20,080 --> 00:29:24,360 So to think that you could now ask of them to join the accords 495 00:29:24,640 --> 00:29:30,000 to solidify their relations or to even begin to build relations 496 00:29:30,320 --> 00:29:34,920 with one of the warring parties, with a, with a country that 497 00:29:34,920 --> 00:29:38,880 they're increasingly viewing as a major threat and a country 498 00:29:38,880 --> 00:29:42,960 that they're viewing in some instances almost as more of a 499 00:29:42,960 --> 00:29:46,360 threat than Iran. Only because it is enabled in a 500 00:29:46,360 --> 00:29:49,640 way that Iran is not enabled. It gets weapons, it gets the US 501 00:29:49,640 --> 00:29:52,440 backing. So to to think that this is the 502 00:29:52,440 --> 00:29:54,760 time to ask them for that I think is is crazy. 503 00:29:55,520 --> 00:29:58,080 And can I ask you a couple of things about the mindset of 504 00:29:58,200 --> 00:30:00,280 Iran? I mean, you've written before 505 00:30:00,600 --> 00:30:04,440 that Iran's approach matches every strike with a counter 506 00:30:04,440 --> 00:30:06,480 strike. What do you think that tells us 507 00:30:06,480 --> 00:30:10,000 about their broader strategy? I think it tells us that Iran 508 00:30:10,000 --> 00:30:14,560 wants two things. The first thing is to survive. 509 00:30:14,720 --> 00:30:17,360 This is a war about Iran's survival. 510 00:30:17,360 --> 00:30:19,560 It wants to outlast the United States. 511 00:30:19,600 --> 00:30:22,640 It can't possibly imagine that it might win a war against the 512 00:30:22,640 --> 00:30:27,040 strongest army in the war in the world, but it can outlast it, 513 00:30:27,240 --> 00:30:28,920 and that in itself will be a win. 514 00:30:29,320 --> 00:30:33,880 The second thing that Iran wants is to impose a cost so hefty on 515 00:30:33,880 --> 00:30:37,280 the international community that no one will dare risk another 516 00:30:37,280 --> 00:30:40,200 war with Iran. And that's why you're seeing a 517 00:30:40,200 --> 00:30:43,560 very decisive retaliation on Iran's part, but also a 518 00:30:43,560 --> 00:30:48,960 calibrated 11 where it gives the other time, time to back down 519 00:30:48,960 --> 00:30:52,920 from its threats before Iran acts out on the threats that it 520 00:30:52,920 --> 00:30:55,440 makes. Because ultimately, it doesn't 521 00:30:55,440 --> 00:30:57,760 want to escalate this war needlessly. 522 00:30:57,760 --> 00:31:01,000 It wants to end it, but it does want to impose that cost and it 523 00:31:01,000 --> 00:31:03,400 does want to survive. Do you think there's a point at 524 00:31:03,400 --> 00:31:07,640 which its own population is suffering to a degree that that 525 00:31:07,640 --> 00:31:11,200 would be a motivation for them to stop? 526 00:31:11,560 --> 00:31:14,440 I mean, it's undeniable that the Iranian government faces the 527 00:31:14,440 --> 00:31:17,560 series of crises inside Iran that it was facing before the 528 00:31:17,560 --> 00:31:19,040 war. And the only thing this war has 529 00:31:19,040 --> 00:31:23,360 done is significantly exacerbate all of those crises, including 530 00:31:23,720 --> 00:31:25,920 and in number one spot the Iranian economy. 531 00:31:25,920 --> 00:31:29,520 And, and it's and it's pitiful state, to put it mildly. 532 00:31:29,840 --> 00:31:31,840 So for sure Iranians are suffering. 533 00:31:31,840 --> 00:31:33,960 For sure it's getting worse day by day. 534 00:31:33,960 --> 00:31:38,600 Also the the instability of, of no, not knowing whether it's 535 00:31:38,600 --> 00:31:41,320 peacetime or war time, none of that helps. 536 00:31:41,920 --> 00:31:44,560 It doesn't help you mentally, it doesn't help you economically. 537 00:31:44,760 --> 00:31:47,600 So it's a really, really dire situation inside Iran. 538 00:31:47,840 --> 00:31:50,400 But the government believes that for as long as the war 539 00:31:50,400 --> 00:31:55,360 continues, it has time, it has time to deal with this. 540 00:31:55,560 --> 00:31:58,680 It has to focus its attention on ensuring the war ends, because 541 00:31:58,680 --> 00:32:01,400 the population's attention really is focused on this war. 542 00:32:01,680 --> 00:32:04,520 And then after the war, the government will deal with these 543 00:32:04,520 --> 00:32:07,680 crises or will find some way to deal with these crises. 544 00:32:07,680 --> 00:32:10,640 I think that's a little optimistic on their part, but I 545 00:32:10,640 --> 00:32:13,240 do think that they think that for now they have breathing 546 00:32:13,240 --> 00:32:16,400 space to deal with the war. Do you think that anyone can 547 00:32:16,400 --> 00:32:20,400 force regime change in Iran? I think forcing regime change in 548 00:32:20,400 --> 00:32:23,080 a country like Iran, which is made-up of over 90 million 549 00:32:23,080 --> 00:32:26,760 Iranians with diverging views, which has no real viable 550 00:32:26,760 --> 00:32:29,400 opposition inside the country because it's been quelled for 551 00:32:29,400 --> 00:32:33,240 years. Diverging views, but, but from, 552 00:32:33,320 --> 00:32:37,280 from what we understand, a strong majority against this 553 00:32:37,280 --> 00:32:40,160 particular regime. Absolutely, absolutely. 554 00:32:40,160 --> 00:32:43,640 But but fighting against something is very different to 555 00:32:43,640 --> 00:32:46,520 fighting for something, which I think is the problem that many 556 00:32:46,520 --> 00:32:49,800 Iranians have found inside the country, arguably even those 557 00:32:49,800 --> 00:32:53,360 outside the country. So it's a, it's a difficult 558 00:32:53,360 --> 00:32:56,000 situation. They are anti government, but at 559 00:32:56,000 --> 00:33:00,000 the moment they're focused on ending a war that has proven to 560 00:33:00,000 --> 00:33:04,800 be really difficult for them. There is no hope for regime 561 00:33:04,800 --> 00:33:08,080 change in wartime, that is for sure. 562 00:33:08,080 --> 00:33:12,520 People will be more focused on security, on safety, on ensuring 563 00:33:12,520 --> 00:33:15,200 there's food on the table than on changing the government. 564 00:33:15,200 --> 00:33:18,160 They'll be focused more on the US and Israeli airstrikes than 565 00:33:18,160 --> 00:33:19,760 they will be on their own government. 566 00:33:19,880 --> 00:33:22,680 So there is no space for regime change while the war is going 567 00:33:22,680 --> 00:33:24,880 on. Once this war ends, if the 568 00:33:24,880 --> 00:33:28,280 government is not able to address the crises that we were 569 00:33:28,280 --> 00:33:30,880 just talking about, then I think they're going to have a real 570 00:33:30,880 --> 00:33:33,120 problem on their hands. But again, and that change comes 571 00:33:33,120 --> 00:33:36,000 from within, it doesn't come at the hands of US and Israeli 572 00:33:36,000 --> 00:33:41,480 bombs. That was Dina Esfandiari, and we 573 00:33:41,480 --> 00:33:44,800 will see what happens next, won't we? 574 00:33:44,880 --> 00:33:48,920 Lindsay, do you feel like this is going to be a critical week? 575 00:33:49,280 --> 00:33:51,040 I don't know. It's going to be a critical 576 00:33:51,040 --> 00:33:53,280 week. I think this is going to go on 577 00:33:53,280 --> 00:33:56,400 and on and on, and you and I are going to be here discussing 578 00:33:56,400 --> 00:33:58,520 this. I don't know, next week, next 579 00:33:58,520 --> 00:33:59,840 month. Oh, God, I hope not. 580 00:33:59,840 --> 00:34:02,560 Next year. That's all we have time for from 581 00:34:02,640 --> 00:34:05,480 Trump World. We will very much be back next 582 00:34:05,480 --> 00:34:07,400 week. That's it from me in Washington, 583 00:34:07,400 --> 00:34:09,840 DC. And that's it from me here in 584 00:34:09,840 --> 00:34:11,679 London. Lovely to talk to you, Anushka. 585 00:34:11,920 --> 00:34:12,239 Bye.