1 00:00:00,040 --> 00:00:03,000 If you look at the 10 point plan and the 15 point plan from the 2 00:00:03,000 --> 00:00:05,960 Americans, I mean, you know, there's no landing strip there. 3 00:00:05,960 --> 00:00:08,720 They seem to be oceans apart. You know, I wonder whether it is 4 00:00:08,720 --> 00:00:12,000 just Trump's rhetoric and the the prospect of Armageddon in 5 00:00:12,000 --> 00:00:15,600 the region that has brought them to the table of sorts to have a 6 00:00:15,600 --> 00:00:19,080 kind of pause in the fighting. But fundamentally, nothing much 7 00:00:19,080 --> 00:00:21,080 has shifted. You know, ultimately that means 8 00:00:21,080 --> 00:00:25,040 that I just can't see this, this ceasefire lasting for much 9 00:00:25,040 --> 00:00:27,760 longer unless the threat of Armageddon is always there as 10 00:00:27,760 --> 00:00:29,960 the cloud in the background and they just keep rolling it over 11 00:00:29,960 --> 00:00:36,200 on a two week basis. Hello, I'm Matt Frye in London 12 00:00:36,240 --> 00:00:39,160 and welcome to Trump world. Well, Donald Trump certainly 13 00:00:39,160 --> 00:00:42,640 knows how to keep our attention and he held our attention very 14 00:00:42,640 --> 00:00:45,440 much most of the night actually, depending on where you were 15 00:00:45,440 --> 00:00:47,800 living on this planet. There was the famous deadline 16 00:00:47,800 --> 00:00:50,120 that was set for 8:00 Eastern Time. 17 00:00:50,600 --> 00:00:54,000 That was one in the morning, I think, in London, and we were 18 00:00:54,000 --> 00:00:57,440 all waiting to see whether he would come good on his dire 19 00:00:57,560 --> 00:01:02,120 threats of raining Armageddon down on Iran, bombing them back 20 00:01:02,120 --> 00:01:05,440 to the Stone Age, you know, killing their civilization never 21 00:01:05,440 --> 00:01:07,560 to come back again. I mean, the kind of language 22 00:01:07,560 --> 00:01:10,560 that was both unprecedented and pretty unpresidential, to be 23 00:01:10,560 --> 00:01:12,400 honest. And that seemed to have 24 00:01:12,400 --> 00:01:16,320 concentrated some minds, or perhaps it was the, you know, 25 00:01:16,320 --> 00:01:18,160 message he was getting from the markets. 26 00:01:18,400 --> 00:01:22,240 We'll discuss all that later. But anyway, just after midnight 27 00:01:22,240 --> 00:01:25,720 London time, it became obvious that there was a deal, that 28 00:01:25,720 --> 00:01:29,080 there would be a A2 week ceasefire, that the Iranians and 29 00:01:29,080 --> 00:01:32,080 the Americans had agreed to this, that it was broken by 30 00:01:32,360 --> 00:01:35,680 Pakistan. Now there's a lot we don't know. 31 00:01:35,680 --> 00:01:39,560 We don't know exactly what the Americans agreed to because if 32 00:01:39,560 --> 00:01:41,960 you look at the 10 point plan that was issued by the Iranians, 33 00:01:42,400 --> 00:01:45,040 there's a lot of stuff in there, frankly, that America would 34 00:01:45,040 --> 00:01:46,680 never have agreed to in the past. 35 00:01:46,920 --> 00:01:50,320 Like for instance, the removal of American troops from bases in 36 00:01:50,320 --> 00:01:54,760 the Gulf, like for instance, continued enrichment of uranium. 37 00:01:54,760 --> 00:01:57,360 Now this was something interestingly that was mentioned 38 00:01:57,360 --> 00:02:00,640 in a Farsi version of the 10 point plan, but not then in the 39 00:02:00,640 --> 00:02:03,160 later English version as published by Tehran. 40 00:02:03,560 --> 00:02:07,560 That's just one of the points. We also don't really know 41 00:02:07,560 --> 00:02:11,440 exactly what's going to happen to the reason why we have this 42 00:02:11,440 --> 00:02:13,120 ceasefire, which is the Strait of Hormuz. 43 00:02:13,120 --> 00:02:16,800 Now in the 10 point plan, it says the, the some I'm 44 00:02:16,800 --> 00:02:19,880 paraphrasing here, the Iranian military will have some kind of 45 00:02:19,880 --> 00:02:22,480 jurisdiction over who is allowed through the Strait of Hormuz and 46 00:02:22,480 --> 00:02:24,720 who isn't. This will be administered by 47 00:02:24,800 --> 00:02:27,800 Iran and by Oman. And so we we're kind of 48 00:02:27,800 --> 00:02:30,560 wondering, does this mean that there'll be a $2,000,000 fee at 49 00:02:30,560 --> 00:02:34,120 the toll booth administered by Tehran every time a tanker goes 50 00:02:34,120 --> 00:02:36,240 through, or will it be $1,000,000 or half, $1,000,000 51 00:02:36,240 --> 00:02:38,240 or 10,000 bucks? We have no idea. 52 00:02:38,360 --> 00:02:40,840 But what we probably know is that the Gulf states will be 53 00:02:41,000 --> 00:02:45,320 very unhappy about this because one of the things that was not a 54 00:02:45,320 --> 00:02:49,800 reality before February the 28th when the war started was that 55 00:02:49,800 --> 00:02:52,320 the Strait of Hormuz was virtually closed. 56 00:02:52,320 --> 00:02:55,000 It was always open. In fact, it remained open for 57 00:02:55,000 --> 00:03:00,160 the 47 years of conflict between Tehran and Washington. 58 00:03:00,160 --> 00:03:03,640 So why is open meaning it partially now a massive 59 00:03:03,640 --> 00:03:05,440 achievement again, something else to be discussed. 60 00:03:05,680 --> 00:03:08,440 The other thing we don't know this morning, the other really 61 00:03:08,440 --> 00:03:11,760 massive question, which I'm sure you've asked yourself is where 62 00:03:11,760 --> 00:03:15,200 on earth is Anushka? Well, I guess what Anushka is 63 00:03:15,200 --> 00:03:17,440 doing her job. She's flitting around 64 00:03:17,440 --> 00:03:20,920 Washington, DC from home to White House, probably dropping 65 00:03:20,920 --> 00:03:24,560 the kids off on school and then going to the Department of War, 66 00:03:24,560 --> 00:03:27,560 as they like to call it. Now to listen to one Secretary 67 00:03:27,560 --> 00:03:32,080 of War, Pete Heck says give a press conference and in in this 68 00:03:32,080 --> 00:03:34,800 incredibly hectic morning schedule, she has managed to 69 00:03:34,800 --> 00:03:37,560 find a little bit of time to keep us up to date. 70 00:03:37,560 --> 00:03:40,400 So let's just listen to what she has discovered, Manushka. 71 00:03:41,800 --> 00:03:44,360 So it's obviously been an incredibly consequential 12 72 00:03:44,360 --> 00:03:46,480 hours. At the beginning of it, there 73 00:03:46,480 --> 00:03:50,280 was this threat of hitting power plants, of hitting bridges, of 74 00:03:50,360 --> 00:03:53,040 basically causing a civilization to die. 75 00:03:53,040 --> 00:03:57,200 We then saw that announced ceasefire within 90 minutes to 76 00:03:57,200 --> 00:03:58,960 go. And this morning the Secretary 77 00:03:58,960 --> 00:04:02,560 of War and General Dan Kane have been putting out what they say 78 00:04:02,560 --> 00:04:07,160 is an absolute victory here. Operation Epic Fury was a 79 00:04:07,160 --> 00:04:12,280 historic and overwhelming victory on the battlefield, A 80 00:04:12,280 --> 00:04:19,440 Capital V military victory by any measure, Epic Fury decimated 81 00:04:19,440 --> 00:04:23,840 Iran's military and rendered it combat ineffective for years to 82 00:04:23,840 --> 00:04:26,840 come. In reality, Donald Trump is 83 00:04:26,840 --> 00:04:32,480 talking about negotiating on the Iranians 10 points, which 84 00:04:32,480 --> 00:04:35,680 doesn't really sound like AUS victory. 85 00:04:35,680 --> 00:04:38,720 The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz is the reopening of a 86 00:04:38,720 --> 00:04:42,720 Strait that was open anyway. And you know, Pete Hegseth in 87 00:04:42,720 --> 00:04:46,320 here, he had a map really of which questions he was going to 88 00:04:46,320 --> 00:04:48,600 take. He took questions from largely 89 00:04:48,840 --> 00:04:51,920 supportive outlets. He was listening to questions 90 00:04:51,920 --> 00:04:54,600 being shouted from the back, but he refused to take any of them. 91 00:04:54,640 --> 00:04:56,760 They were the more difficult questions, the questions that 92 00:04:56,760 --> 00:04:58,920 would have asked what has actually been achieved here? 93 00:04:58,920 --> 00:05:02,520 How much damage has taken place? And in the end, is Iran going to 94 00:05:02,520 --> 00:05:05,640 have more power than it had at the beginning of this, 95 00:05:05,640 --> 00:05:09,680 especially if, as seems to be the case, it goes ahead and 96 00:05:09,680 --> 00:05:12,800 tries to charge people to cross through the Strait of Hormuz. 97 00:05:13,040 --> 00:05:15,720 And then there is a question of Lebanon, of which there wasn't a 98 00:05:15,720 --> 00:05:19,240 single question asked of him with Israel refusing to bat down 99 00:05:19,240 --> 00:05:20,840 there. It comes after we heard 100 00:05:21,360 --> 00:05:23,720 incredibly interesting stuff from the New York Times about 101 00:05:23,720 --> 00:05:26,520 how they came to this decision, a decision that it sounds like 102 00:05:26,520 --> 00:05:31,360 General Kane was very, you know, concerned about in some ways and 103 00:05:31,360 --> 00:05:34,280 one in which Donald Trump pushed ahead, assuming the straight of 104 00:05:34,280 --> 00:05:38,640 Hormuz wouldn't be closed and assuming that this would be a 105 00:05:38,640 --> 00:05:40,840 quick victory. Instead, it looks like we're 106 00:05:40,840 --> 00:05:43,480 about to enter very difficult negotiations. 107 00:05:44,720 --> 00:05:46,120 Thank you very much. And Rushka, I hope you have a 108 00:05:46,360 --> 00:05:49,200 fruitful day. Thanks for your attention to 109 00:05:49,200 --> 00:05:51,160 this matter, as Donald Trump likes to sign off. 110 00:05:52,160 --> 00:05:54,520 OK, let's go to our guest then. There's really no one better to 111 00:05:54,520 --> 00:05:57,640 put all these extraordinarily breathless and hectic events 112 00:05:57,640 --> 00:06:00,800 into constant context then. Suzanne Maloney. 113 00:06:01,120 --> 00:06:04,400 She works for the Brookings Institution, but she also has 114 00:06:04,400 --> 00:06:08,200 worked for Democrats, Democratic administrations and Republican 115 00:06:08,200 --> 00:06:11,440 administrations as the expert on Iran. 116 00:06:11,640 --> 00:06:13,760 She's also worked for ExxonMobil. 117 00:06:13,960 --> 00:06:16,720 So she knows a lot about oil. She knows about the power of 118 00:06:16,720 --> 00:06:18,040 oil. She'll know a lot about the 119 00:06:18,040 --> 00:06:21,320 Strait of Hormuz. No one better to forensically 120 00:06:21,400 --> 00:06:25,360 unpick what has just occurred in the last 24 hours. 121 00:06:26,400 --> 00:06:27,880 OK. Susan Maloney, thank you very 122 00:06:27,880 --> 00:06:30,760 much for coming to Trump World. There's a lot to discuss. 123 00:06:31,120 --> 00:06:33,400 I wondered if you, you know, spent your evening. 124 00:06:33,400 --> 00:06:35,480 I was already asleep last night or trying to get to sleep. 125 00:06:35,480 --> 00:06:38,920 I wonder if you spent your evening waiting for Armageddon 126 00:06:38,920 --> 00:06:42,520 to be unleashed at 8:00 Eastern Time, and how surprised you were 127 00:06:43,560 --> 00:06:46,120 when Armageddon was then postponed for two weeks. 128 00:06:46,320 --> 00:06:49,000 Well, like many people around the world, I absolutely was 129 00:06:49,000 --> 00:06:51,040 watching and waiting to see how this would play out. 130 00:06:51,040 --> 00:06:54,240 It was a little bit earlier in terms of Eastern Standard Time 131 00:06:54,240 --> 00:06:57,280 in the United States. So it wasn't quite as onerous to 132 00:06:57,280 --> 00:07:00,720 wait up. I, I was not in, you know, 133 00:07:00,720 --> 00:07:05,640 wholly shocked that this off ramp was identified and secured. 134 00:07:05,920 --> 00:07:10,120 About 90 minutes before the the promised threat of Armageddon 135 00:07:10,520 --> 00:07:13,160 that President Trump had issued on social media. 136 00:07:13,160 --> 00:07:16,840 There had been some signs of diplomatic progress over the 137 00:07:16,840 --> 00:07:20,440 course of the day, but I think that there was a very real 138 00:07:20,440 --> 00:07:22,880 threat on the part of the administration and it 139 00:07:22,920 --> 00:07:26,200 particularly in the aftermath of the successful rescue operation 140 00:07:26,200 --> 00:07:29,440 over the weekend in which an American airman was extracted 141 00:07:29,440 --> 00:07:32,920 from Iran and an enormously complex and risky operation. 142 00:07:33,520 --> 00:07:36,720 I think that the Trump administration, the president 143 00:07:36,720 --> 00:07:41,600 himself, was primed for action. And we we really did come close 144 00:07:41,600 --> 00:07:44,120 to something that would have been absolutely horrific. 145 00:07:44,120 --> 00:07:46,840 So you think he meant it when he said that he would bomb them 146 00:07:46,840 --> 00:07:50,840 back to the Stone Age or, you know, end their civilization, 147 00:07:50,960 --> 00:07:53,440 never to come back again? Do you think that was he meant 148 00:07:53,440 --> 00:07:57,120 that I was just Trumpian bluff? I I do think that the president 149 00:07:57,120 --> 00:08:00,440 was prepared to take action and that he was prepared to commit 150 00:08:00,440 --> 00:08:04,240 what I would believe would would have been war crimes under the 151 00:08:04,280 --> 00:08:08,000 circumstances. You know, this was a tactic, of 152 00:08:08,000 --> 00:08:10,880 course, because the military operation that would have been 153 00:08:10,880 --> 00:08:14,480 necessary to reopen the Strait of Hormuz forcibly would have 154 00:08:14,480 --> 00:08:18,040 taken an enormous amount of time to mobilize and would have left 155 00:08:18,040 --> 00:08:22,520 the international system really still subject to Iranian 156 00:08:22,520 --> 00:08:25,440 extortion over the course of weeks or even months. 157 00:08:26,240 --> 00:08:29,400 And and that would have been a a costly operation in terms of 158 00:08:29,400 --> 00:08:34,559 both, you know, US defense material, but also in terms 159 00:08:34,559 --> 00:08:37,240 potentially of casualties. So I think that the president, 160 00:08:37,720 --> 00:08:41,159 you know, used completely unacceptable rhetoric, but this 161 00:08:41,159 --> 00:08:46,040 was a tactic intended to sort of drive the the the, the stand off 162 00:08:46,040 --> 00:08:48,920 to some kind of a diplomatic off ramp. 163 00:08:48,920 --> 00:08:50,760 And we'll see if they actually can sustain it. 164 00:08:50,760 --> 00:08:53,440 I think that's a real question. That it's a massive question 165 00:08:53,480 --> 00:08:55,040 amongst lots of other big questions. 166 00:08:55,280 --> 00:08:58,680 So if that's true, if basically, you know, he used this very, 167 00:08:58,680 --> 00:09:01,400 very strong rhetoric and and backed it up with, you know, 168 00:09:01,440 --> 00:09:03,360 with bombing to persuade the Iranians. 169 00:09:04,560 --> 00:09:07,800 At the same time, the kind of 10 point plan that they issued is 170 00:09:07,800 --> 00:09:10,480 full of things that, you know, they could only have dreamt of 171 00:09:10,480 --> 00:09:14,040 in the past and that may not be accepted at the end of the day. 172 00:09:14,320 --> 00:09:18,040 But it doesn't look like a capitulation document, does it? 173 00:09:18,080 --> 00:09:20,880 No, it absolutely doesn't. And I think that the Iranian 174 00:09:20,920 --> 00:09:24,040 regime is convinced that it has not just achieved the upper 175 00:09:24,040 --> 00:09:27,440 hand, but it has come out of this conflict potentially in a 176 00:09:27,440 --> 00:09:31,280 stronger position, both in terms of its control of society and 177 00:09:31,280 --> 00:09:35,640 its so it's regional stance and and most importantly perhaps in 178 00:09:35,640 --> 00:09:38,800 terms of the economy. But I'm asking that question 179 00:09:38,800 --> 00:09:41,400 because I just wonder whether there was something else at play 180 00:09:41,400 --> 00:09:43,240 here. I mean, for instance, you know, 181 00:09:43,240 --> 00:09:46,440 and I'm thinking out loud here, is it possible that Trump, in 182 00:09:46,440 --> 00:09:50,200 the end back down because he was getting signals from his mates 183 00:09:50,200 --> 00:09:53,600 on Wall Street that if he did go ahead with Armageddon, the 184 00:09:53,600 --> 00:09:57,120 markets would go berserk and ultimately, you know, this would 185 00:09:57,120 --> 00:10:00,720 wash up on his own doorstep? Is it also possible because 186 00:10:01,320 --> 00:10:04,280 there's been a lot of, you know, restiveness in the Pentagon, in 187 00:10:04,280 --> 00:10:07,760 the so-called Department of War, but maybe some generals went to 188 00:10:07,760 --> 00:10:11,760 the Secretary of War, Pete Hexis, and said, I'm sorry, Sir, 189 00:10:11,760 --> 00:10:15,120 but if you asked us to bomb these targets and this could be 190 00:10:15,120 --> 00:10:17,800 a war crime, we're not going to go and follow your orders. 191 00:10:18,000 --> 00:10:20,120 I think those are very interesting and important 192 00:10:20,120 --> 00:10:21,920 questions. I'm sure that the president was 193 00:10:21,920 --> 00:10:24,480 thinking of the markets, although it doesn't appear that 194 00:10:24,480 --> 00:10:27,400 he took those markets into account in launching the war 195 00:10:27,400 --> 00:10:29,720 itself. But clearly this had become an 196 00:10:29,720 --> 00:10:33,440 economic crisis. And the expectation of any 197 00:10:33,440 --> 00:10:36,480 escalation by the United States would have precipitated some 198 00:10:36,480 --> 00:10:38,440 kind of escalation by the Iranians. 199 00:10:38,680 --> 00:10:42,440 They would have targeted Saudi oil facilities and alternative 200 00:10:42,440 --> 00:10:45,280 export routes through the Red Sea, and that would have 201 00:10:45,280 --> 00:10:49,600 compounded the the shortages in the oil and gas markets. 202 00:10:49,600 --> 00:10:53,760 It would have, you know, really, I think, produced an historic 203 00:10:53,760 --> 00:10:57,000 crisis on top of what we're already experiencing for the 204 00:10:57,000 --> 00:10:59,760 global economy. And so it wasn't, you know, it 205 00:10:59,760 --> 00:11:03,240 wasn't going to be a short term fix in terms of the crisis 206 00:11:03,240 --> 00:11:07,280 itself if the president were to try to unleash the bombing that 207 00:11:07,280 --> 00:11:10,440 he had promised. You know, we haven't seen much 208 00:11:10,440 --> 00:11:14,240 evidence of pushback within the administration even as the 209 00:11:14,240 --> 00:11:16,520 president has undertaken this mission. 210 00:11:16,520 --> 00:11:20,160 And I think the reporting on, you know, what drove the war and 211 00:11:20,160 --> 00:11:23,520 the calculus and the deliberations that went in to 212 00:11:23,600 --> 00:11:28,520 the decision to launch the war really reaffirm what we've been 213 00:11:28,520 --> 00:11:31,840 given to understand about how decision making operates in this 214 00:11:31,840 --> 00:11:34,080 administration. The president is the decider. 215 00:11:34,240 --> 00:11:38,880 He is surrounded by people with considerable experience and who 216 00:11:38,880 --> 00:11:42,040 are better informed than he is on many of the technicalities. 217 00:11:42,280 --> 00:11:45,320 But they don't believe themselves to be in a position 218 00:11:45,320 --> 00:11:47,360 to make those decisions. They believe themselves as 219 00:11:47,360 --> 00:11:50,680 giving the president options, and he ultimately decides. 220 00:11:50,680 --> 00:11:53,920 So it would be interesting to see if this was a case where 221 00:11:53,920 --> 00:11:57,440 there was in fact, you know, some, some more serious 222 00:11:57,440 --> 00:12:01,440 opposition that was going to constrain the the US response. 223 00:12:01,760 --> 00:12:03,440 I would like to believe that that's true. 224 00:12:03,440 --> 00:12:06,560 It certainly would would be consistent with what I know of 225 00:12:06,560 --> 00:12:08,600 the professionalism of the US military. 226 00:12:09,160 --> 00:12:11,840 But, you know, that hasn't been how the senior decision makers 227 00:12:11,840 --> 00:12:14,040 in the administration thus far have operated. 228 00:12:14,280 --> 00:12:17,840 Specifically on the 10 point plan that the Iranians have 229 00:12:17,840 --> 00:12:19,720 issued. So I have a couple of questions 230 00:12:19,720 --> 00:12:22,800 and maybe you can answer them. So the question of enrichment, 231 00:12:22,800 --> 00:12:24,800 for instance. So apparently there's a Farsi 232 00:12:24,800 --> 00:12:27,720 version that was put out in the middle of the night that or less 233 00:12:27,720 --> 00:12:29,640 said we still want to enrich uranium. 234 00:12:29,840 --> 00:12:32,480 That is not then the English language version. 235 00:12:32,480 --> 00:12:34,840 Apparently. That seems to be a really 236 00:12:34,840 --> 00:12:37,520 fundamental point. That's one of the reasons why 237 00:12:37,520 --> 00:12:39,240 this war was started in the 1st place. 238 00:12:39,600 --> 00:12:43,480 Then the other points are, for instance, no American troops in 239 00:12:43,480 --> 00:12:46,680 bases in the Gulf. I mean, I find out kind of hard 240 00:12:46,680 --> 00:12:49,560 to believe, even though many Gulf states have fallen out of 241 00:12:49,560 --> 00:12:52,720 love with America's trust sharpishly in the last few 242 00:12:52,720 --> 00:12:55,520 weeks. Another one was about, you know, 243 00:12:55,680 --> 00:12:58,680 advanced proxies in the region have to be dismantled. 244 00:12:58,680 --> 00:13:01,320 I mean, there's a lot of stuff there that seems like wishful 245 00:13:01,320 --> 00:13:06,560 thinking from the Iranian side. So do we know how much America, 246 00:13:07,160 --> 00:13:09,920 you know, how many of those points America, is signed off on 247 00:13:09,920 --> 00:13:12,760 or is that subject to the negotiations that will start 248 00:13:12,760 --> 00:13:15,080 apparently in Islamabad in Pakistan on Friday? 249 00:13:15,360 --> 00:13:17,600 I think that is subject to the negotiation. 250 00:13:17,600 --> 00:13:20,200 And of course the the Trump administration put out its own 251 00:13:20,200 --> 00:13:25,000 15 point plan or set of criteria that they want the Iranians to 252 00:13:25,000 --> 00:13:27,080 satisfy. And similarly, I don't think 253 00:13:27,080 --> 00:13:30,840 that there's any acceptance of that criteria by Tehran. 254 00:13:30,840 --> 00:13:33,280 So this is going to be a really tough negotiation. 255 00:13:33,280 --> 00:13:37,000 It's not clear exactly what kind of a a compromise can be 256 00:13:37,000 --> 00:13:41,080 achieved, and it may only be a brief interlude in between the 257 00:13:41,320 --> 00:13:44,040 the the war itself. Because if you look at the 10 258 00:13:44,040 --> 00:13:47,440 point plan and the 15 point plan from the Americans, I mean, you 259 00:13:47,440 --> 00:13:49,040 know, there's no landing strip there. 260 00:13:49,040 --> 00:13:53,200 They seem to be oceans apart. So, you know, I wonder whether 261 00:13:53,200 --> 00:13:56,600 it is just Trump's rhetoric and the the prospect of Armageddon 262 00:13:56,600 --> 00:13:59,920 in the region that has brought them to the table of sorts. 263 00:13:59,920 --> 00:14:01,680 They have a kind of hold in the fighting. 264 00:14:02,040 --> 00:14:04,560 But fundamentally, nothing much has shifted. 265 00:14:05,200 --> 00:14:08,280 And you know, ultimately that means that I just can't see 266 00:14:08,280 --> 00:14:11,760 this, this ceasefire laughing for much longer unless the 267 00:14:11,760 --> 00:14:14,360 threat of Armageddon is always there as the cloud in the 268 00:14:14,360 --> 00:14:16,560 background and they just keep rolling it over on a two week 269 00:14:16,560 --> 00:14:18,960 basis. Well, I think from the Iranian 270 00:14:18,960 --> 00:14:21,800 point of view, if they can lock in some of the gains they 271 00:14:21,800 --> 00:14:24,880 believe they've achieved in this war, particularly the ability to 272 00:14:24,880 --> 00:14:28,440 monetize their control of the Strait of Corpos, then that is a 273 00:14:28,440 --> 00:14:32,160 huge net benefit for them. And you know, they, they were 274 00:14:32,160 --> 00:14:34,560 prepared to make some compromises in the diplomacy 275 00:14:34,560 --> 00:14:37,360 that took place in the days before President Trump launched 276 00:14:37,360 --> 00:14:40,520 the war. They may recognize that there is 277 00:14:40,600 --> 00:14:43,640 a, as I've heard described, a kind of shelf life to their 278 00:14:43,640 --> 00:14:46,360 current upper hand. And they may wish to try to 279 00:14:46,680 --> 00:14:50,280 achieve some durable gains rather than continue the fight, 280 00:14:50,440 --> 00:14:54,200 potentially risk long term damage to the regime itself. 281 00:14:54,200 --> 00:14:57,040 They obviously don't care about the Iranian people, but they 282 00:14:57,040 --> 00:15:00,160 really do care about ensuring the regime remains in control. 283 00:15:00,640 --> 00:15:04,120 If at the end of this war, the six week war, what a almost six 284 00:15:04,120 --> 00:15:07,880 week war. Iran comes out hardened, you 285 00:15:07,880 --> 00:15:11,040 know, ideologically committed, just as repressive at home, if 286 00:15:11,040 --> 00:15:14,320 not more so. We're still 30% of its ballistic 287 00:15:14,320 --> 00:15:19,040 missile capability intact, 440kg of enriched uranium somewhere 288 00:15:19,040 --> 00:15:21,880 hidden in a bunker or under a, you know, a collapsed building 289 00:15:21,880 --> 00:15:25,200 or who knows where. But crucially, they've managed 290 00:15:25,200 --> 00:15:28,200 to turn the Strait of Hormuz into a toll booth. 291 00:15:28,640 --> 00:15:33,360 It could make them up to, you know, $2,000,000 a tank, 150 292 00:15:33,360 --> 00:15:35,720 tankers a day. You do the math, it says that's 293 00:15:35,720 --> 00:15:37,960 a lot of money. That would be extraordinary, 294 00:15:37,960 --> 00:15:39,880 wouldn't it? It would be, and I think that's 295 00:15:39,880 --> 00:15:43,320 what the Iranians believe that they can achieve because of the 296 00:15:43,320 --> 00:15:47,080 difficulties in reversing the current set of circumstances. 297 00:15:47,680 --> 00:15:50,560 It can be done. the US militarily can retake control of 298 00:15:50,560 --> 00:15:54,320 the Strait of Hormuz, but it's a really complex operation. 299 00:15:54,320 --> 00:15:57,600 It would take a lot of time to undertake and, you know, there 300 00:15:57,600 --> 00:16:02,000 is, I think, some recognition that the Iranians have been 301 00:16:02,000 --> 00:16:04,360 demanding some kind of economic compensation. 302 00:16:04,600 --> 00:16:07,840 United States is not going to pay reparations to Islamic 303 00:16:07,840 --> 00:16:11,000 Republic of Iran. But a system in which Iran is 304 00:16:11,000 --> 00:16:14,400 able to profit as a result of its control, control of the 305 00:16:14,400 --> 00:16:17,600 Strait, might be the most tolerable end for all parties, 306 00:16:17,600 --> 00:16:20,080 at least in the short term. Do you think the Gulf states 307 00:16:20,080 --> 00:16:22,920 will put up with the Strait of Hormuz becoming a Tehran toll 308 00:16:22,920 --> 00:16:24,920 booth? I think it would have to be 309 00:16:25,280 --> 00:16:27,800 somewhat bilateral. And so some of the proposals 310 00:16:27,800 --> 00:16:31,800 have suggested that the Omanis would also, given their their 311 00:16:31,800 --> 00:16:35,600 geographic position, have some opportunity to benefit from 312 00:16:35,600 --> 00:16:37,240 this. And that could be potentially A 313 00:16:37,240 --> 00:16:42,640 reconstruction funds to offset the damages to economic and 314 00:16:42,640 --> 00:16:46,360 energy infrastructure across the the Gulf Cooperation Council 315 00:16:46,360 --> 00:16:49,960 states. This is, you know, it, it is not 316 00:16:49,960 --> 00:16:53,720 a, a strategic victory for the Trump administration. 317 00:16:54,040 --> 00:16:57,200 It's hard to see that this war, which has, you know, come at a 318 00:16:57,200 --> 00:17:02,040 huge cost in terms of the the economic cost of waging war, but 319 00:17:02,040 --> 00:17:06,319 also the opportunity cost and the depletion of US munitions 320 00:17:06,319 --> 00:17:09,359 and the key interceptors that are necessary for the air 321 00:17:09,359 --> 00:17:12,440 defense systems, not just in this part of the world, but 322 00:17:12,440 --> 00:17:16,440 also, of course, for other ongoing conflicts in Ukraine as 323 00:17:16,440 --> 00:17:20,880 well as as well as in potential future conflicts in the Indo 324 00:17:20,880 --> 00:17:23,760 Pacific. So, you know, coming out of this 325 00:17:23,760 --> 00:17:26,680 war with the Iranians in a stronger position with some 326 00:17:26,720 --> 00:17:31,600 economic benefit to the regime is is a really catastrophic 327 00:17:31,640 --> 00:17:34,840 outcome. But, you know, This is why, 328 00:17:34,840 --> 00:17:37,920 where we have been really since the start of the war, the 329 00:17:37,920 --> 00:17:41,520 president undertook this operation on the assumption that 330 00:17:41,520 --> 00:17:44,280 decapitation would lead quickly to regime change. 331 00:17:44,720 --> 00:17:48,360 He cannot stand, both politically and for some of the 332 00:17:48,360 --> 00:17:51,000 other reasons we've been discussing, for this war to 333 00:17:51,000 --> 00:17:54,240 continue indefinitely. It is, you know, it has a real 334 00:17:54,240 --> 00:17:58,240 political consequence for him. And geostrategically, it is not 335 00:17:58,240 --> 00:18:01,600 benefiting the United States to be locked down in this conflict 336 00:18:01,600 --> 00:18:03,760 for the long term. You know, the Gulf states are 337 00:18:03,920 --> 00:18:07,000 outraged and as as we are in Europe and in Asia about the 338 00:18:07,000 --> 00:18:09,920 idea that the Strait of Hormuz will become a toll booth for 339 00:18:09,920 --> 00:18:13,320 Tehran. But again, maybe Trump doesn't 340 00:18:13,320 --> 00:18:14,960 mind that much. I mean, he's the guy who imposed 341 00:18:14,960 --> 00:18:18,720 tariffs on his closest friends. Maybe he just thinks since we're 342 00:18:18,720 --> 00:18:21,840 not relying on most of the stuff that comes through the straits, 343 00:18:22,360 --> 00:18:25,600 it's OK if Tehran does this because that's what you do. 344 00:18:25,800 --> 00:18:27,760 You have the power, you extract the money. 345 00:18:27,760 --> 00:18:29,280 It's either a tariff or it's a toll. 346 00:18:29,840 --> 00:18:31,120 I think that's an excellent point. 347 00:18:31,120 --> 00:18:33,360 I think that from the president's perspective, the 348 00:18:33,360 --> 00:18:35,880 United States isn't reliant on the Strait of Hormuz. 349 00:18:35,880 --> 00:18:39,880 That's not entirely accurate, but at least that is his 350 00:18:39,880 --> 00:18:42,560 mindset. And he is, you know, very much 351 00:18:42,560 --> 00:18:44,080 convinced that might makes right. 352 00:18:44,440 --> 00:18:48,520 He would would probably be very happy to have some kind of a 353 00:18:48,520 --> 00:18:52,400 different relationship with the even a very autocratic military 354 00:18:52,400 --> 00:18:56,320 regime in Tehran as long as he was able to projected as a 355 00:18:56,320 --> 00:18:58,280 victory. And he would be less concerned 356 00:18:58,280 --> 00:19:01,240 about the consequences for the rest of the world, even though 357 00:19:01,240 --> 00:19:03,960 it will have would have tremendous impact on the global 358 00:19:03,960 --> 00:19:06,440 economy. So you worked, I think in your 359 00:19:06,440 --> 00:19:08,920 long career, you've also worked for ExxonMobil in a senior 360 00:19:08,920 --> 00:19:13,000 position, if I'm not mistaken. I mean, the oil giants, you 361 00:19:13,000 --> 00:19:15,960 know, who need the Strait of Hormuz to be as open and, and 362 00:19:15,960 --> 00:19:20,160 uncostly as possible. How nervous today about this, if 363 00:19:20,160 --> 00:19:22,480 this becomes a new normal because every time the Iranians 364 00:19:22,480 --> 00:19:24,920 don't like something, they can just threaten to send a drone 365 00:19:25,400 --> 00:19:27,960 towards the tanker and all it takes is 1 little drone and 366 00:19:27,960 --> 00:19:32,440 suddenly insurance companies go first by berserk and and the 367 00:19:32,440 --> 00:19:34,280 traffic stops. I mean, how nervous do you think 368 00:19:34,280 --> 00:19:38,800 they are about this new normal? I think, you know, the corporate 369 00:19:38,800 --> 00:19:42,760 world, but also the, you know, literal states, the the Persian 370 00:19:42,760 --> 00:19:45,080 Gulf states. Everyone has to be extremely 371 00:19:45,080 --> 00:19:49,600 unsettled by a scenario in which the Iranians continue to retain 372 00:19:49,880 --> 00:19:54,000 some degree of leverage over passage through the Strait of 373 00:19:54,000 --> 00:19:56,320 Hormuz, especially with this regime in power. 374 00:19:56,320 --> 00:20:01,520 It is by far the worst possible outcome for markets, for, for 375 00:20:01,520 --> 00:20:05,080 energy supply, for all the other interests that we have. 376 00:20:05,720 --> 00:20:08,840 And as well As for the kind of US relationship with those 377 00:20:08,840 --> 00:20:11,000 states. But, you know, it's hard to see 378 00:20:11,000 --> 00:20:14,320 an outcome that can extract that we will. 379 00:20:14,560 --> 00:20:17,520 I do think, you know, in the long term, the regime stands. 380 00:20:17,520 --> 00:20:19,440 It has gained from this conflict. 381 00:20:19,440 --> 00:20:22,800 But, you know, wars have unpredictable consequences. 382 00:20:23,520 --> 00:20:26,400 We know the Iranian people would like to see a very different 383 00:20:26,400 --> 00:20:29,320 kind of leadership in their country over time in the 384 00:20:29,320 --> 00:20:33,120 aftermath of of a war that, you know, the Iranian regime to some 385 00:20:33,120 --> 00:20:37,880 extent has been waiting for and ready for for many years. 386 00:20:38,360 --> 00:20:41,520 I, you know, I think there will be a push from within for some 387 00:20:41,520 --> 00:20:44,920 kind of alternative governance within Iran, but it's not going 388 00:20:44,920 --> 00:20:47,200 to happen in the short term. I was going to ask you about 389 00:20:47,200 --> 00:20:49,680 that because of course, we've just in the last few days we've 390 00:20:49,680 --> 00:20:53,120 seen executions of people who took part in the demonstrations 391 00:20:53,120 --> 00:20:57,040 in January, Some, you know, yeah, I think in one or two 392 00:20:57,040 --> 00:20:59,840 cases, some pretty high profile, you know, sporting 393 00:20:59,840 --> 00:21:02,680 personalities, you know, a couple of well known artists, I 394 00:21:02,680 --> 00:21:05,760 mean, the besieger, you know, and the Revolutionary Guard 395 00:21:05,760 --> 00:21:09,760 Council, Paul rather have not backed off on tramping down on a 396 00:21:09,920 --> 00:21:12,600 internal opposition. Do you think that will get worse 397 00:21:12,600 --> 00:21:15,560 in the coming weeks if the fighting stops, I mean, with 398 00:21:15,560 --> 00:21:19,560 America and Israel? And can you see the Iranian 399 00:21:19,560 --> 00:21:23,240 people, you know, who may still hate the ayatollahs more than 400 00:21:23,240 --> 00:21:26,120 they hate Donald Trump at this stage, come out onto the streets 401 00:21:26,120 --> 00:21:28,240 and demand their freedom? I don't think that's going to 402 00:21:28,240 --> 00:21:30,680 happen in the near term. I do think that the regime will 403 00:21:30,680 --> 00:21:34,760 continue to reinforce through coercive means that it wants to 404 00:21:34,760 --> 00:21:38,080 remain fully in control and it will not brook any kind of 405 00:21:38,400 --> 00:21:40,800 dissent or opposition. They have been not just to 406 00:21:40,800 --> 00:21:42,920 keeping up the pace of executions, but they've been 407 00:21:42,920 --> 00:21:46,680 sending text messages to, you know, the population writ large 408 00:21:46,680 --> 00:21:50,240 to warn them away from any kind of protest or dissent. 409 00:21:50,680 --> 00:21:53,800 But we've also seen at least some possible cracks within the 410 00:21:53,800 --> 00:21:57,200 system itself. And, you know, some of the more 411 00:21:57,200 --> 00:22:00,320 moderate figures within the regime have suggested that this 412 00:22:00,320 --> 00:22:04,840 is the end of the war should be an occasion for serious reform 413 00:22:04,840 --> 00:22:07,440 of the system to ensure its durability. 414 00:22:07,760 --> 00:22:10,120 You know what that looks like, how successful they are. 415 00:22:10,120 --> 00:22:13,960 It's, it doesn't look good in the short term, but I would note 416 00:22:13,960 --> 00:22:17,840 that in the in the aftermath of the Iran Iraq war, that was when 417 00:22:17,840 --> 00:22:22,320 we really did see some push for reform and for gradual change 418 00:22:22,320 --> 00:22:25,840 within the system that briefly appeared to have some traction 419 00:22:25,840 --> 00:22:28,120 within the system in the late 1990s. 420 00:22:28,120 --> 00:22:32,520 So this is a, a, a long haul. Iranians have been suffering 421 00:22:32,520 --> 00:22:36,600 under this system for 47 years. They deserve an opportunity to 422 00:22:36,880 --> 00:22:40,800 select their own government and and really be in a position not 423 00:22:40,800 --> 00:22:43,240 to be dominated by this horrific region. 424 00:22:43,560 --> 00:22:46,760 But you know, the war unfortunately has has not given 425 00:22:46,760 --> 00:22:49,640 them much of an opportunity. Yes, because I mean, obviously 426 00:22:49,640 --> 00:22:52,320 you've studied around, you know, almost for as long as they've 427 00:22:52,320 --> 00:22:56,120 had revolutionary Iran since since 1979. 428 00:22:56,520 --> 00:22:58,320 You've written books about it and all the rest of it. 429 00:22:58,640 --> 00:23:01,160 I mean, and there've been so many full storms of opposition, 430 00:23:01,160 --> 00:23:03,440 haven't there? And we so many times that we've 431 00:23:03,440 --> 00:23:07,040 predicted regime change, including rather blithely and 432 00:23:07,040 --> 00:23:09,080 mistakenly at the beginning of this year. 433 00:23:09,600 --> 00:23:11,840 And every single time it's been frustrated. 434 00:23:12,240 --> 00:23:15,320 Is there anything that you've seen that suggests that the 435 00:23:15,320 --> 00:23:19,000 cracks within the regime between hardliners and reformers is more 436 00:23:19,000 --> 00:23:20,720 serious than it's been in the past? 437 00:23:21,240 --> 00:23:24,680 Or that the the the quorum of anger from the streets that we 438 00:23:24,680 --> 00:23:29,720 saw in January might re emerge in a truly substantial and 439 00:23:29,720 --> 00:23:32,720 decisive way this time. I am not optimistic in the short 440 00:23:32,720 --> 00:23:35,880 term, but I would say, you know, the Iranian people have been 441 00:23:35,880 --> 00:23:40,480 coming to the streets in larger numbers, more sustained and at 442 00:23:40,480 --> 00:23:44,640 great risk to their own lives and livelihoods in, you know, 443 00:23:44,640 --> 00:23:46,680 over the course of the past eight years in particular. 444 00:23:46,680 --> 00:23:49,440 It's very clear that they want some kind of a different system. 445 00:23:49,920 --> 00:23:53,440 The system has changed. We now see the military more 446 00:23:53,440 --> 00:23:56,720 firmly in control. And for now, they appear to be 447 00:23:56,960 --> 00:23:59,800 equally committed to the principles of the theocratic 448 00:23:59,800 --> 00:24:03,240 state of revolutionary Iran. But that, too, may change over 449 00:24:03,240 --> 00:24:05,640 time because they're going to have to govern a country which 450 00:24:05,640 --> 00:24:08,320 has been ravaged by this war. They're going to have to rebuild 451 00:24:08,320 --> 00:24:11,520 and reconstruct infrastructure across the board. 452 00:24:11,840 --> 00:24:15,160 And they're going to need to be able to demonstrate to their own 453 00:24:15,160 --> 00:24:18,200 population that there is some, you know, potential better 454 00:24:18,200 --> 00:24:21,160 future. So, you know, this is not a, a 455 00:24:21,160 --> 00:24:24,920 great, a good outcome for the Iranian people, but I, you know, 456 00:24:24,920 --> 00:24:29,480 I think that there will be a need to continue to maintain 457 00:24:29,480 --> 00:24:31,480 pressure. You know, one big issue that I 458 00:24:31,480 --> 00:24:35,880 would hope would be addressed, at least symbolically in those 459 00:24:35,880 --> 00:24:38,480 conversations that are going to take place around the ceasefire 460 00:24:38,480 --> 00:24:40,040 would be the reopening of the Internet. 461 00:24:40,040 --> 00:24:43,680 Iranians have been cut off for now 40 days, which is 462 00:24:43,880 --> 00:24:46,720 unprecedented in the world. They have a national Internet 463 00:24:46,720 --> 00:24:49,120 that they can essentially disconnect from the 464 00:24:49,120 --> 00:24:52,240 international system. And that, in the current set of 465 00:24:52,240 --> 00:24:54,000 circumstances, seems intolerable. 466 00:24:54,320 --> 00:24:55,640 Indeed. And of course the Internet was 467 00:24:55,640 --> 00:24:57,960 also shut down at the beginning of the year when they had the 468 00:24:57,960 --> 00:25:00,520 demonstrations. So there's been probably most of 469 00:25:00,520 --> 00:25:05,040 the beginning of this of 2026 in Internet darkness, which is, you 470 00:25:05,040 --> 00:25:08,920 know, which is extraordinary. So just to get back to Donald 471 00:25:08,920 --> 00:25:11,720 Trump, if, you know Trump will be crying about victory, you 472 00:25:11,720 --> 00:25:16,440 know, in the next hours and days, what has he actually won? 473 00:25:16,440 --> 00:25:19,920 What has he achieved in this 5 1/2 weeks of war? 474 00:25:20,320 --> 00:25:23,880 I think the the president and those who support this war will 475 00:25:23,880 --> 00:25:27,400 point to the extensive degradation of Iran's 476 00:25:27,400 --> 00:25:30,000 conventional military capabilities over the course of 477 00:25:30,000 --> 00:25:32,640 the past five weeks. It will also point to the 478 00:25:32,640 --> 00:25:37,160 leadership decapitation and the erosion of an entire echelon of 479 00:25:37,160 --> 00:25:40,560 military and security and political leaders as a result of 480 00:25:40,560 --> 00:25:43,280 the air strikes. You know those are significant 481 00:25:43,280 --> 00:25:45,720 accomplishments. But are they, I mean, if you, if 482 00:25:45,720 --> 00:25:48,320 you, if the institutions are stronger than the individuals, 483 00:25:48,880 --> 00:25:52,120 if you place replace 1 chap called Khamenei with his son, 484 00:25:52,120 --> 00:25:56,520 who's also called Khamenei, the nepo Ayatollah who've not seen. 485 00:25:56,680 --> 00:26:00,520 And if you, if they still have the ability to fire missiles at 486 00:26:00,520 --> 00:26:03,240 Gulf states, as they were proving all day today, they're 487 00:26:03,240 --> 00:26:05,440 still firing stuff and they still have their drones. 488 00:26:06,400 --> 00:26:09,440 And I just wonder whether you know, and they can rebuild stuff 489 00:26:09,440 --> 00:26:11,920 very quickly as they did after June last year when they learned 490 00:26:11,920 --> 00:26:15,560 some lessons in that short war. And I mean, the weakness of the 491 00:26:15,560 --> 00:26:19,560 regime is there, but it's not, it doesn't strike me as being 492 00:26:19,640 --> 00:26:22,280 substantial. No, I, I, I think on balance, 493 00:26:22,280 --> 00:26:24,920 you know, this is not a strategic victory for the Trump 494 00:26:24,920 --> 00:26:27,160 administration in any way, shape or form. 495 00:26:27,600 --> 00:26:31,720 I simply suspect that the president will disregard the 496 00:26:31,720 --> 00:26:35,200 reality on the ground and he will point to some tactical 497 00:26:35,200 --> 00:26:37,640 achievements which are meaningful, which are real, but 498 00:26:37,640 --> 00:26:41,640 they don't offset the extent to which the regime has been 499 00:26:41,640 --> 00:26:44,440 entrenched, potentially strengthened, potentially in a, 500 00:26:44,640 --> 00:26:47,320 in a, in a better economic position, which is really 501 00:26:47,320 --> 00:26:49,560 extraordinary. Exactly, especially if the oil 502 00:26:49,560 --> 00:26:51,880 sanctions continue to be lifted and they're making money from 503 00:26:51,880 --> 00:26:54,440 the toll booth on the straight. But the other thing that the 504 00:26:54,440 --> 00:26:57,600 Iranians wanted and I think it's in the 10 point plan that they 505 00:26:57,800 --> 00:27:01,400 profit is a guarantee that America won't break its word 506 00:27:01,400 --> 00:27:05,760 again or is not for that matter and and surprise them with more 507 00:27:05,760 --> 00:27:09,480 military action it seemed. Again, I'm very doubtful whether 508 00:27:09,480 --> 00:27:13,200 that guarantee can be obtained even on paper frankly. 509 00:27:13,480 --> 00:27:15,680 And if it is depend on paper with it can be trusted. 510 00:27:16,000 --> 00:27:18,960 No, I don't think that the United States or Israel will 511 00:27:18,960 --> 00:27:21,760 make that kind of a commitment. I don't think the Iranians can 512 00:27:21,760 --> 00:27:23,920 secure that through the negotiating table. 513 00:27:23,920 --> 00:27:28,320 But I do think that their ability to revert to strikes on 514 00:27:28,480 --> 00:27:32,160 transit through the through the straight will be essentially a 515 00:27:32,160 --> 00:27:34,600 new situation of mutually assured destruction. 516 00:27:34,600 --> 00:27:37,400 The United States can come back and hit Iran. 517 00:27:37,560 --> 00:27:40,640 Israel can as well. And that is something that, you 518 00:27:40,640 --> 00:27:43,320 know, you see the extent to which the the United States 519 00:27:43,320 --> 00:27:47,400 military had set up, as, you know, a, a temporary base within 520 00:27:47,400 --> 00:27:52,720 Iran in order to extract the downed airmen last week. 521 00:27:53,080 --> 00:27:56,840 And so, you know, that degree of operational control over Iran is 522 00:27:56,840 --> 00:27:59,640 extraordinary. And I suspect that that, you 523 00:27:59,640 --> 00:28:02,960 know, that will to some extent act as a kind of deterrence 524 00:28:02,960 --> 00:28:05,840 against further efforts by the Iranians. 525 00:28:05,840 --> 00:28:07,840 But you know, we are going to be, I think, in a very 526 00:28:07,840 --> 00:28:11,360 precarious situation, one that will have a real hangover for 527 00:28:11,360 --> 00:28:13,400 the global economy for quite some time. 528 00:28:14,000 --> 00:28:16,880 And, and it looks as if America's military assets will 529 00:28:16,880 --> 00:28:18,760 be in the region for the foreseeable future. 530 00:28:19,040 --> 00:28:20,720 Is that right? I mean, they're they're keeping 531 00:28:20,720 --> 00:28:22,760 everything there just in case it all falls apart. 532 00:28:22,920 --> 00:28:25,600 They will have to do that. I think the idea of pivoting to 533 00:28:25,600 --> 00:28:30,320 Asia has once again been distracted by events in the 534 00:28:30,320 --> 00:28:33,000 Middle East and the president's decision to launch this war. 535 00:28:33,280 --> 00:28:36,520 So if you're Xi Jinping and you have spent the last year and a 536 00:28:36,520 --> 00:28:40,080 half ever since Trump came back into office, to to put yourself 537 00:28:40,080 --> 00:28:44,480 up there as the designated driver of planet Earthy, the 538 00:28:44,480 --> 00:28:49,200 designated adult of the new world disorder, call it what you 539 00:28:49,200 --> 00:28:51,440 like. What are you doing with this, 540 00:28:52,080 --> 00:28:55,600 with this situation? Is it an opportunity to try 541 00:28:55,600 --> 00:28:58,520 something in Taiwan, or are you just going to rest on your 542 00:28:58,520 --> 00:29:01,680 responsible Laurel for a bit? I think the Chinese are watching 543 00:29:01,680 --> 00:29:05,560 and learning about the US military and US strategic 544 00:29:05,560 --> 00:29:08,520 leadership because what they've seen is a military that is very 545 00:29:08,520 --> 00:29:11,520 operationally capable. The the, again, this rescue 546 00:29:11,520 --> 00:29:15,080 operation, I think points to the just the extraordinary skill and 547 00:29:15,080 --> 00:29:18,800 capabilities of the US military. But what they've seen is, you 548 00:29:18,800 --> 00:29:23,360 know, a leadership that has made disastrous decisions and 549 00:29:23,360 --> 00:29:25,120 they're, you know, going to pocket that. 550 00:29:25,120 --> 00:29:30,560 That simply is tremendous benefit in terms of the Chinese 551 00:29:30,560 --> 00:29:32,360 presenting themselves as an alternative. 552 00:29:33,000 --> 00:29:37,200 You know, I, I am guided by my colleagues who have studied the 553 00:29:37,200 --> 00:29:39,840 issues of China and Taiwan far longer than I have. 554 00:29:39,840 --> 00:29:43,680 And I think that, you know, a military operation is probably 555 00:29:43,680 --> 00:29:46,720 the least likely outcome to try to take Taiwan. 556 00:29:46,720 --> 00:29:50,480 There are many other ways that they can secure control of the 557 00:29:50,480 --> 00:29:52,840 island. And I I think they're gonna, 558 00:29:53,560 --> 00:29:56,000 Beijing is going to be quite happy that the president will be 559 00:29:56,000 --> 00:29:59,080 once again distracted by the Middle East and they're going to 560 00:29:59,080 --> 00:30:00,840 be able to extend their influence. 561 00:30:01,480 --> 00:30:05,080 They have also benefited in terms of the further alienation 562 00:30:05,080 --> 00:30:08,240 of partners and allies, both because of the economic 563 00:30:08,240 --> 00:30:11,720 consequences which have been felt more keenly in Seoul and 564 00:30:11,720 --> 00:30:15,480 Tokyo than they have perhaps at this point in time by within the 565 00:30:15,480 --> 00:30:18,800 United States. As well as the the strategic, 566 00:30:18,800 --> 00:30:22,640 you know, sort of alienation of Europe and the the really 567 00:30:23,440 --> 00:30:27,000 offensive rhetoric from the White House toward America's 568 00:30:27,000 --> 00:30:29,160 NATO allies over the course of this conflict. 569 00:30:29,160 --> 00:30:31,760 I think that will also have a very long tail. 570 00:30:31,760 --> 00:30:35,080 Donald Trump came to power in America because he promised to 571 00:30:35,080 --> 00:30:37,840 be, you know, as tough, you know, as a tough businessman, 572 00:30:37,840 --> 00:30:40,840 the real estate tycoon from Manhattan who knows how to get 573 00:30:40,840 --> 00:30:42,680 deals done. There's the famous book, The Out 574 00:30:42,680 --> 00:30:46,560 of the Deal and all that. Have we discovered, and maybe 575 00:30:46,560 --> 00:30:52,160 has he discovered in the last six weeks the limits of his kind 576 00:30:52,160 --> 00:30:55,880 of appeal as a transactional leader, that there are 577 00:30:55,880 --> 00:30:57,840 important, there are more important things than just 578 00:30:57,840 --> 00:31:00,360 making money? You know, as the Iranians have 579 00:31:00,360 --> 00:31:03,280 shown us, there is pride, there is history. 580 00:31:03,520 --> 00:31:07,080 If you threaten to obliterate a civilisation that's five and a 581 00:31:07,080 --> 00:31:10,000 half thousand 6000 years old, I can't count. 582 00:31:10,600 --> 00:31:13,200 But they get upset, you know, and people who hate the 583 00:31:13,200 --> 00:31:16,120 ayatollahs will hate you even more for making these 584 00:31:16,120 --> 00:31:20,400 suggestions as you come against up against the limitations of 585 00:31:20,400 --> 00:31:24,280 his own kind of philosophical mindset, let's call it that, as 586 00:31:24,280 --> 00:31:25,920 a businessman trying to run a country. 587 00:31:26,320 --> 00:31:29,040 I think what we're seeing is real splits within the 588 00:31:29,040 --> 00:31:32,560 president's base over this war, both because the president 589 00:31:32,560 --> 00:31:36,040 himself had long campaigned against the forever wars. 590 00:31:36,040 --> 00:31:40,360 He was in some ways prescient on that within the Republican 591 00:31:40,360 --> 00:31:42,160 Party, within the Washington establishment. 592 00:31:42,160 --> 00:31:45,240 I don't think it was as fully appreciated when he first began 593 00:31:45,480 --> 00:31:49,520 criticizing the the money and and lives lost in Iraq and 594 00:31:49,520 --> 00:31:52,680 Afghanistan that that was such a salient issue for the American 595 00:31:52,680 --> 00:31:56,120 public and to, you know, undertake this war without a 596 00:31:56,120 --> 00:31:58,960 clear plan for not just the day after the war, but the second 597 00:31:58,960 --> 00:32:01,640 date of the war. I think, you know, we've already 598 00:32:01,640 --> 00:32:07,200 seen a a lot of dissent from within the mega sphere and, you 599 00:32:07,200 --> 00:32:09,360 know, the the economic consequence are going to be 600 00:32:09,360 --> 00:32:12,760 playing up just as Americans begin their summer holidays. 601 00:32:12,760 --> 00:32:16,240 The the price of gasoline is going to remain elevated here. 602 00:32:16,520 --> 00:32:19,600 Jet fuel obviously will also remain highly elevated. 603 00:32:19,600 --> 00:32:23,400 That will impact, you know, voters as they approach the 604 00:32:23,400 --> 00:32:26,320 midterm elections in November. And so I think, you know, what 605 00:32:26,440 --> 00:32:30,280 this war has done, at least for the moment, has suggested that 606 00:32:30,280 --> 00:32:33,920 the president is not invulnerable to the forces of 607 00:32:33,920 --> 00:32:36,800 gravity and the forces of logic and reason. 608 00:32:36,800 --> 00:32:42,240 And, you know, we may see a shift in not just his base, but 609 00:32:42,240 --> 00:32:44,440 also in the Republican establishment, a greater 610 00:32:44,440 --> 00:32:48,280 willingness to push back against some of the catastrophic and 611 00:32:48,280 --> 00:32:51,480 outrageous decisions that he has been undertaking, not just 612 00:32:51,480 --> 00:32:53,440 internationally but also here at home. 613 00:32:53,840 --> 00:32:56,200 I mean, there are plenty of people in America who are 614 00:32:56,240 --> 00:32:58,640 outraged by the language that the president has used in the 615 00:32:58,640 --> 00:33:00,520 last week. And some Republicans also 616 00:33:00,520 --> 00:33:03,720 outraged, although more quietly and less publicly than their, 617 00:33:03,920 --> 00:33:08,040 you know, Democratic friends. I just wonder whether you think, 618 00:33:08,040 --> 00:33:11,760 whether you know, if there's anyone at all in the White House 619 00:33:12,000 --> 00:33:15,320 who can say to the president you can't use that language? 620 00:33:15,320 --> 00:33:18,640 Is it Susie Wiles, you know, is it Marco Rubio? 621 00:33:18,640 --> 00:33:21,720 Is it JD Vance? Is anyone telling him don't 622 00:33:21,720 --> 00:33:24,960 tweet this stuff, don't post it? This is not presidential. 623 00:33:25,280 --> 00:33:28,000 It's counterproductive, you know, it made the arrangement 624 00:33:28,000 --> 00:33:31,160 stronger, you know, in the long run than than the opposite. 625 00:33:31,360 --> 00:33:33,600 I think there are many people who could tell him that, and 626 00:33:33,600 --> 00:33:36,640 they have chosen not to. And that is the the real fear, 627 00:33:36,640 --> 00:33:40,080 the real, you know, sort of disaster that we're facing as a 628 00:33:40,080 --> 00:33:43,400 country and across the world that the president is making 629 00:33:43,640 --> 00:33:46,960 catastrophic decisions. And those he has surrounded 630 00:33:46,960 --> 00:33:50,960 himself with may know better, but choose not to push back 631 00:33:51,080 --> 00:33:53,920 sufficiently. Which is astonishing when you 632 00:33:53,920 --> 00:33:57,040 consider that America, you know, for better or for worse, he's 633 00:33:57,040 --> 00:34:00,160 always functioned quite well on a chief executive who has, 634 00:34:00,240 --> 00:34:04,280 Lincoln famously said, had had a team of rivals backing him up. 635 00:34:04,320 --> 00:34:06,560 You know some smart people who could say, Mr. President, with 636 00:34:06,560 --> 00:34:09,320 all respect, Sir, you can't do this or you can't say that. 637 00:34:09,760 --> 00:34:11,159 Yeah. That, I think is something that 638 00:34:11,159 --> 00:34:13,239 we've seen play out over the course of this conflict. 639 00:34:13,239 --> 00:34:16,040 And the reporting on how the decision was made to go to war 640 00:34:16,040 --> 00:34:20,040 suggests that there were those, both from the Pentagon and 641 00:34:20,239 --> 00:34:23,800 within the administration who had serious reservations about 642 00:34:23,800 --> 00:34:27,560 the plan that was presented by the Israelis for this war and 643 00:34:27,560 --> 00:34:30,760 the assumption of a very quick victory and quick regime change. 644 00:34:31,320 --> 00:34:33,880 But they did not press that issue with the president. 645 00:34:34,199 --> 00:34:37,239 We have seen in both Republican and Democratic administrations 646 00:34:37,239 --> 00:34:40,040 in the past that Cabinet officials were prepared to 647 00:34:40,040 --> 00:34:43,120 resign over decisions that they thought were wrong headed. 648 00:34:43,520 --> 00:34:47,080 And in this case, we're not even seeing the, the, the serious 649 00:34:47,080 --> 00:34:50,159 debate that that should have been undertaken, not just within 650 00:34:50,159 --> 00:34:52,560 the White House, within the administration, but, you know, 651 00:34:52,600 --> 00:34:55,960 before going to war, the United States president should have 652 00:34:55,960 --> 00:34:58,200 gone to Congress, should have gone to the American people to 653 00:34:58,200 --> 00:35:01,560 make the case of why this was necessary, why the threat was 654 00:35:01,560 --> 00:35:06,760 imminent, why it was worth the United States resources and 655 00:35:06,760 --> 00:35:10,120 attention to undertake such a a risky operation. 656 00:35:10,120 --> 00:35:13,040 The fact that the president didn't do that leaves him in a 657 00:35:13,040 --> 00:35:17,040 much weaker position today, even if he will no doubt proclaim A 658 00:35:17,160 --> 00:35:19,400 tremendous victory however this war ends. 659 00:35:19,680 --> 00:35:22,360 And as they say, power corrupts and absolute power corrupts 660 00:35:22,400 --> 00:35:25,160 absolutely, even just if you have the impression that you've 661 00:35:25,160 --> 00:35:27,840 got absolute power, which obviously the president still 662 00:35:27,840 --> 00:35:31,360 doesn't, even if he wants it. I just want to finally, I mean, 663 00:35:31,360 --> 00:35:36,080 if you're, if you're sitting in Denmark or in Greenland and you 664 00:35:36,080 --> 00:35:38,680 know that there's a president of the United States who thinks 665 00:35:38,680 --> 00:35:42,760 that by threatening civilizational Armageddon he can 666 00:35:42,760 --> 00:35:47,440 get his way, are you safe? I mean, is he not going to? 667 00:35:47,760 --> 00:35:50,040 Is there a possibility he might do the same thing to you in 668 00:35:50,040 --> 00:35:53,720 Copenhagen or do that to his friends and allies in Europe who 669 00:35:53,720 --> 00:35:56,200 he's been running for ever since he came back into office? 670 00:35:56,200 --> 00:36:01,120 I mean, no one is entirely safe from the president's bluster 671 00:36:01,800 --> 00:36:04,840 rhetoric, are they? Well, I do think what we saw 672 00:36:04,840 --> 00:36:08,000 earlier this year was really affected pushback by European 673 00:36:08,000 --> 00:36:10,760 leaders and of course, the signals that the president was 674 00:36:10,760 --> 00:36:14,080 receiving from the market about his desire to take Greenland. 675 00:36:14,640 --> 00:36:17,200 I would expect that he will revert to that again at some 676 00:36:17,200 --> 00:36:19,560 point. But this war has to have been a 677 00:36:19,560 --> 00:36:22,600 humbling experience. And as I said there, you know, 678 00:36:22,600 --> 00:36:24,480 we're seeing the splits within the mega base. 679 00:36:24,480 --> 00:36:27,960 There may be more pushback internally within the United 680 00:36:27,960 --> 00:36:31,120 States on the president. And, you know, he after the 681 00:36:31,120 --> 00:36:33,560 midterms, he may be more of a lame duck. 682 00:36:33,560 --> 00:36:36,720 There will be a look toward who is the the future of the mega 683 00:36:36,720 --> 00:36:41,400 movement, and that I think will will create some at least 684 00:36:41,400 --> 00:36:45,080 effective pressure and dissuasion from further 685 00:36:45,080 --> 00:36:47,920 adventures like this one. So we're looking for some relief 686 00:36:47,920 --> 00:36:49,680 here. Do you think then that he might 687 00:36:49,960 --> 00:36:54,640 stop his kind of 11 head on a poke every calendar, every 688 00:36:54,640 --> 00:36:57,880 calendar month routine? Do you think he might layoff 689 00:36:57,880 --> 00:37:00,000 Cuba for a bit? Maybe layoff Greenland for a 690 00:37:00,000 --> 00:37:02,080 bit? Give it a rest, play some golf, 691 00:37:02,720 --> 00:37:05,200 have a good time, enjoy the garden, smell the roses. 692 00:37:05,480 --> 00:37:09,000 Well, he's got a construction site in the Rose Garden, so that 693 00:37:09,000 --> 00:37:12,200 may be a little difficult. But I do think that the 694 00:37:12,200 --> 00:37:16,240 president will probably not be fully tamed as a result of this, 695 00:37:16,440 --> 00:37:19,920 particularly if he is able to depict it in his own mind as 696 00:37:19,920 --> 00:37:22,680 some sort of great strategic outcome. 697 00:37:23,680 --> 00:37:27,280 So he may be tempted to try to redeem himself through other 698 00:37:27,280 --> 00:37:31,080 operations that may be perceived as potentially less complex, 699 00:37:31,360 --> 00:37:33,080 such as Cuba, certainly Greenland. 700 00:37:33,080 --> 00:37:35,320 I think, you know, he will talk about it. 701 00:37:35,440 --> 00:37:39,200 I would be very surprised if, in the aftermath of this conflict 702 00:37:39,200 --> 00:37:44,840 that he undertakes another risky and very costly effort such as 703 00:37:44,840 --> 00:37:46,760 that. And having insulted, you know, 704 00:37:46,800 --> 00:37:50,680 even his supposed best friend us, you know, on our little 705 00:37:50,680 --> 00:37:53,400 island here, you know, the King's coming out in 2 weeks 706 00:37:53,400 --> 00:37:56,440 time, I'm sure he'll give a very emollient speech and try and 707 00:37:57,040 --> 00:37:59,400 paper over some of the cracks. But having insulted his friends 708 00:37:59,400 --> 00:38:03,920 and allies, you think that those friends and allies should trust 709 00:38:03,920 --> 00:38:09,120 America's words ever again? Or has this relationship 710 00:38:09,240 --> 00:38:11,600 fundamentally broken? Are we living through the 711 00:38:11,600 --> 00:38:13,640 rupture that Mark County talked about at Devil? 712 00:38:13,800 --> 00:38:15,320 I think we're living through the rupture. 713 00:38:15,320 --> 00:38:17,320 I hope it can be repaired in the future. 714 00:38:17,320 --> 00:38:19,920 I don't think that that will happen within the next several 715 00:38:19,920 --> 00:38:21,560 years. I don't see the president 716 00:38:21,560 --> 00:38:26,440 changing to the extent that would be necessary to really 717 00:38:26,440 --> 00:38:30,400 repair the damage that he has done to those partners and 718 00:38:30,400 --> 00:38:33,520 allies. I do think that that's a 719 00:38:33,520 --> 00:38:38,000 critical need for the rest of the establishment in the United 720 00:38:38,000 --> 00:38:41,800 States to consider how we navigate a new world because we 721 00:38:41,800 --> 00:38:45,600 know from past experience that, you know, without American 722 00:38:45,600 --> 00:38:49,360 leadership that there are, you know, really negative outcomes. 723 00:38:49,480 --> 00:38:52,040 We have not been a perfect country by any stretch of the 724 00:38:52,040 --> 00:38:54,880 imagination. But, you know, the commitment to 725 00:38:54,880 --> 00:38:58,880 try to advance prosperity and security around the world has 726 00:38:58,880 --> 00:39:02,320 been a global good. And without it, we may see more 727 00:39:02,320 --> 00:39:05,480 conflict. We may see more economic, very 728 00:39:05,480 --> 00:39:09,880 negative economic competition. And and ultimately it will not 729 00:39:09,880 --> 00:39:14,160 be our, no one will will will benefit from that other than our 730 00:39:14,160 --> 00:39:16,280 adversaries. Sobering stuff. 731 00:39:16,280 --> 00:39:18,240 Suzanne Maloney, it's a pleasure to talk to you. 732 00:39:18,240 --> 00:39:19,560 Thank you very much for your insight. 733 00:39:19,760 --> 00:39:22,360 Thank you. Well, that's it for this week. 734 00:39:22,760 --> 00:39:25,160 I'll be back next week. Fresh from the Hungarian 735 00:39:25,160 --> 00:39:27,960 elections which are taking place this weekend, Hungary is the 736 00:39:27,960 --> 00:39:29,920 kind of Canary in the populist mine. 737 00:39:30,160 --> 00:39:33,080 We'll see whether Viktor Orban survives some really dismal 738 00:39:33,080 --> 00:39:36,200 opinion poll ratings and a legacy of corruption and 739 00:39:36,200 --> 00:39:39,200 economic decline. And frankly, Hungary, now the 740 00:39:39,200 --> 00:39:43,280 poorest state in the EU by many measures, can he still manage to 741 00:39:43,280 --> 00:39:47,520 survive and be Donald Trump's favorite Prime Minister in 742 00:39:47,520 --> 00:39:49,200 Europe? Let's see about that. 743 00:39:49,200 --> 00:39:52,080 And of course, Anushka will give us all the latest from 744 00:39:52,080 --> 00:39:54,200 Washington. And the big question next week 745 00:39:54,200 --> 00:39:58,360 will be, can this ceasefire that is very fresh off the page hold 746 00:39:58,480 --> 00:40:02,200 as long as you have to wait for the next edition of Trump World. 747 00:40:02,480 --> 00:40:04,400 That's it from me in London. Hope you enjoyed it. 748 00:40:04,560 --> 00:40:05,160 See you soon.