1 00:00:00,200 --> 00:00:02,640 Iran is not going to surrender. Obviously United States is not 2 00:00:02,640 --> 00:00:04,960 going to surrender. So as long as that is the goal 3 00:00:05,160 --> 00:00:07,640 and the method is coercion, we're just going to see more 4 00:00:07,640 --> 00:00:10,120 destabilisation of war. And ultimately, at least in the 5 00:00:10,120 --> 00:00:13,480 short run, it tends to backfire more on Trump than on the 6 00:00:13,480 --> 00:00:15,640 Iranians. Now the objective is, how do we 7 00:00:15,640 --> 00:00:19,160 get the straight open? They said it was temporary. 8 00:00:19,200 --> 00:00:22,200 They kept repeating this thing Donald Trump says, which is the 9 00:00:22,200 --> 00:00:26,960 rest of the world needs the oil more than America needs it. 10 00:00:26,960 --> 00:00:28,200 Here we are. We're helping you. 11 00:00:28,200 --> 00:00:31,560 We're going to get it open for a bit, but by the way, after that 12 00:00:31,560 --> 00:00:34,760 it is over to you in Europe. Is there anyone, as far as you 13 00:00:34,760 --> 00:00:38,440 know, who's talking whispering truth to Trump power? 14 00:00:43,200 --> 00:00:44,600 Hello and welcome to Trump World. 15 00:00:44,600 --> 00:00:46,760 I'm Anushka Astana in Washington, DC. 16 00:00:46,920 --> 00:00:50,360 And I'm Matt Fry in London. And Anushka, I've got a couple 17 00:00:50,360 --> 00:00:51,760 of questions for you to start off with. 18 00:00:52,160 --> 00:00:56,880 I mean, it seems as if we're at yet another inflection point in 19 00:00:56,880 --> 00:01:01,000 this war that is dragging on and on and on because of Project 20 00:01:01,000 --> 00:01:04,080 Freedom, because of the fact that, you know, there are 21 00:01:04,080 --> 00:01:08,280 reports of economic pain finally being imposed on Iran by the 22 00:01:08,280 --> 00:01:10,600 American blockade. And, of course, the world 23 00:01:10,600 --> 00:01:13,720 economy is yet again watching all this from behind the sofa 24 00:01:14,680 --> 00:01:16,840 buttocks clench. Things are not going very well 25 00:01:16,840 --> 00:01:18,160 at all. The German chancellor's having a 26 00:01:18,160 --> 00:01:20,120 miserable time. Our government here is having a 27 00:01:20,120 --> 00:01:21,880 terrible time. There was an open row between 28 00:01:22,120 --> 00:01:26,440 Rachel Reeves and Scott Besson last week in Washington during 29 00:01:26,440 --> 00:01:29,880 the IMF meetings. So we seem to be at a point 30 00:01:29,880 --> 00:01:32,440 where things have to move either forwards or backwards. 31 00:01:32,640 --> 00:01:36,560 How do you see the situation? Well, I have just been watching 32 00:01:36,560 --> 00:01:41,800 Pete Hegseth, the Secretary of War, give his one of his 33 00:01:41,800 --> 00:01:44,600 briefings from inside the Pentagon. 34 00:01:44,640 --> 00:01:47,320 I mean, it does feel like something is happening because 35 00:01:47,320 --> 00:01:50,160 we did see a bit of a change in tone from him. 36 00:01:50,160 --> 00:01:53,720 I quite often go to those briefings, although I'm slightly 37 00:01:53,720 --> 00:01:56,560 giving up on it because I think the questions are very planned 38 00:01:56,560 --> 00:01:59,560 out and it's not really a totally open, Free Press 39 00:01:59,560 --> 00:02:01,400 conference. Put your hand up and get tired. 40 00:02:01,560 --> 00:02:04,800 I remember when, when when I was in the White House with Bush, I 41 00:02:04,800 --> 00:02:07,440 always put my hand up and by the end I've had repetitive strain 42 00:02:07,440 --> 00:02:09,880 syndrome because I never got called upon to ask a question. 43 00:02:09,880 --> 00:02:12,920 It was very, very boring. Or you just you just sit there 44 00:02:12,920 --> 00:02:17,200 and observe, hoping that Pete will, you know, will shine his 45 00:02:17,200 --> 00:02:20,000 light on you. Don't get me wrong, actually 46 00:02:20,000 --> 00:02:22,840 watching and observing at that close quarter is really 47 00:02:22,840 --> 00:02:25,520 fascinating, but they do literally put your name on a 48 00:02:25,520 --> 00:02:28,280 seat in a place where they know he's not going to ask a 49 00:02:28,280 --> 00:02:29,240 question. So. 50 00:02:29,320 --> 00:02:33,000 So, yeah, but but it was interesting because I thought 51 00:02:33,000 --> 00:02:35,560 his tone was less aggressive than usual. 52 00:02:35,560 --> 00:02:40,440 They were talking about Project Freedom, which is their attempt 53 00:02:40,440 --> 00:02:44,520 to get ships going through the Strait of Hormuz. 54 00:02:44,520 --> 00:02:46,240 He said it was a temporary thing. 55 00:02:46,440 --> 00:02:48,200 He said it was a defensive thing. 56 00:02:48,320 --> 00:02:51,680 I mean, even in the very name itself, which, you know, 57 00:02:51,680 --> 00:02:55,040 normally, historically, Americans always call military 58 00:02:55,560 --> 00:02:57,840 operations things more like freedom. 59 00:02:57,840 --> 00:03:00,840 But recently we've had Operation Epic Fury. 60 00:03:01,120 --> 00:03:03,120 Midnight Hammer. Midnight Hammer. 61 00:03:03,120 --> 00:03:04,400 Other much more aggressive thing. 62 00:03:04,400 --> 00:03:06,720 Let's just start by having a quick listen to Pete Hagseth 63 00:03:06,720 --> 00:03:10,200 this morning. Project Freedom is defensive in 64 00:03:10,200 --> 00:03:14,440 nature, focused in scope, and temporary in duration. 65 00:03:14,680 --> 00:03:18,240 With 1 mission protecting innocent commercial shipping 66 00:03:18,240 --> 00:03:23,200 from Iranian aggression, American forces won't need to 67 00:03:23,200 --> 00:03:25,160 enter Iranian waters or airspace. 68 00:03:25,160 --> 00:03:27,560 It's not necessary. We're not looking. 69 00:03:27,560 --> 00:03:30,920 For a fight. But Iran also cannot be allowed 70 00:03:30,920 --> 00:03:33,400 to block innocent countries and their goods from an 71 00:03:33,400 --> 00:03:36,880 international waterway. What I thought was really 72 00:03:36,880 --> 00:03:40,880 interesting in there was an acknowledgement by them, I think 73 00:03:41,160 --> 00:03:44,640 for the first time by both Pete Hegseth and Dan Kane, that Iran 74 00:03:44,640 --> 00:03:47,600 has had the ability to hold the global economy hostage. 75 00:03:47,600 --> 00:03:50,520 They said that's unacceptable, but they admitted that that was 76 00:03:50,520 --> 00:03:53,520 what had happened. And actually, at one point they 77 00:03:53,520 --> 00:03:57,080 were asked about the kind of sequencing of all of this, why 78 00:03:57,080 --> 00:04:00,840 the military stuff had come first when Dan Kane in the room 79 00:04:00,840 --> 00:04:05,080 had argued that the blockade was actually the most, you know, um, 80 00:04:05,360 --> 00:04:07,400 successful thing that they were able to do. 81 00:04:07,400 --> 00:04:09,760 And he basically said, well, that's a political decision. 82 00:04:10,280 --> 00:04:14,440 Um, the sequencing of it, but our original objectives were 83 00:04:14,440 --> 00:04:17,079 different to our objectives now is what they effectively 84 00:04:17,079 --> 00:04:20,440 admitted, which was now the objective is how do we get the 85 00:04:20,480 --> 00:04:23,240 straight open? And they they said it was 86 00:04:23,240 --> 00:04:26,040 temporary inasmuch as they kept repeating this thing Donald 87 00:04:26,040 --> 00:04:30,400 Trump says, which is the rest of the world needs the oil more 88 00:04:30,560 --> 00:04:33,920 than America needs it. And so here we are. 89 00:04:33,920 --> 00:04:35,760 We're helping you. We're going to get it open for a 90 00:04:35,760 --> 00:04:38,120 bit. But by the way, after that, it 91 00:04:38,120 --> 00:04:40,840 is over to you in Europe. And I've sat in that room and 92 00:04:40,840 --> 00:04:44,080 heard them many times. Be really critical of Europe. 93 00:04:44,080 --> 00:04:47,560 Pete Hegseth has talked about the fancy conferences that the 94 00:04:47,600 --> 00:04:50,640 Europeans are doing and suggesting that it's never led 95 00:04:50,640 --> 00:04:55,680 to actual action. And and Matt, just explain to us 96 00:04:55,680 --> 00:04:59,080 why it is that we've got to the position where they need Project 97 00:04:59,080 --> 00:05:01,600 Freedom. Well, Project Freedom, which is 98 00:05:01,600 --> 00:05:06,200 essentially means opening up the straight, not completely, but 99 00:05:06,200 --> 00:05:10,160 partially for the passage of some, but not all of the 2000 100 00:05:10,160 --> 00:05:13,840 ships that have 2000 ships that have been marooned there for, 101 00:05:13,960 --> 00:05:15,640 you know, since February the 28th. 102 00:05:16,000 --> 00:05:18,480 They're doing it, I think, in order to prove to the world, 103 00:05:18,480 --> 00:05:21,440 essentially, even though they say they don't need the oil that 104 00:05:21,440 --> 00:05:23,760 comes through there, they're doing it to prove to the world 105 00:05:23,760 --> 00:05:25,720 that they have the upper hand in this conflict. 106 00:05:26,120 --> 00:05:29,480 And So what is so strange about this is they've, you know, 107 00:05:29,480 --> 00:05:31,560 they've got a lot of firepower in place. 108 00:05:31,560 --> 00:05:36,560 They've got 3 aircraft carrier groups, 25,000 troops, including 109 00:05:36,560 --> 00:05:40,520 Marines on various vessels. And remember, about a month and 110 00:05:40,520 --> 00:05:43,480 a half ago, we wondered if these troops will be there to actually 111 00:05:43,480 --> 00:05:47,080 occupy one of the islands, like Hague Island, the oil terminal 112 00:05:47,080 --> 00:05:50,560 or maybe even strips of the Iranian coastline. 113 00:05:51,080 --> 00:05:55,240 And their potential task has been really pared down to that 114 00:05:55,240 --> 00:05:58,560 of escorting a number of ships through the Strait of Hormuz. 115 00:05:58,840 --> 00:06:01,600 Now, when they started doing that, of course, the Iranians 116 00:06:01,600 --> 00:06:04,720 said you can't do that without us giving you, you know, the a, 117 00:06:04,840 --> 00:06:08,080 OK, the green light, They went ahead with it anyway. 118 00:06:08,520 --> 00:06:11,640 There's some confusion about how many ships got through and how 119 00:06:11,640 --> 00:06:13,440 many ships got hit by the Iranians. 120 00:06:13,440 --> 00:06:16,960 But the Iranians definitely, you know, fired on at least one 121 00:06:17,040 --> 00:06:20,320 vessel and also exchanged fire with an American vessel. 122 00:06:20,720 --> 00:06:24,440 And it looked as if this could go, you know, horribly South and 123 00:06:24,440 --> 00:06:26,520 we could be back to where we were before the ceasefire. 124 00:06:26,960 --> 00:06:29,120 It is interesting that that has not happened. 125 00:06:29,640 --> 00:06:32,560 So even though there's a lot of bluster, you know, and for 126 00:06:32,560 --> 00:06:36,600 instance, the Americans also took out six of these speed 127 00:06:36,600 --> 00:06:38,160 boats. The Iranians say they were just 128 00:06:38,640 --> 00:06:41,120 civilian speed boats. I can't imagine any civilians 129 00:06:41,320 --> 00:06:43,240 using their speed boats in the Strait of Hormuz. 130 00:06:43,560 --> 00:06:46,120 The Americans say no, they're part of the so-called Mosquito 131 00:06:46,120 --> 00:06:49,280 fleet of little boats that harass the tankers, etcetera. 132 00:06:49,640 --> 00:06:52,400 But the fact that this did not immediately explode into 133 00:06:52,400 --> 00:06:56,880 something bigger shows me that there's an element of restraint 134 00:06:56,880 --> 00:07:00,880 there on both sides, with both sides claiming the upper hand, 135 00:07:01,160 --> 00:07:04,280 both sides saying that they're, you know, resolved to to stick 136 00:07:04,280 --> 00:07:06,680 it out. And, you know, and that may well 137 00:07:06,680 --> 00:07:10,000 be the case. What I find so fascinating is 138 00:07:10,000 --> 00:07:13,680 that once again, the rest of the world, which has been called 139 00:07:13,680 --> 00:07:16,440 upon to help straight open the Strait of a muse, is sitting 140 00:07:16,440 --> 00:07:18,800 there like deer in the headlights because their 141 00:07:18,800 --> 00:07:21,480 economic plans are being shredded on a week by week 142 00:07:21,480 --> 00:07:22,880 basis. I spoke to the governor of the 143 00:07:22,880 --> 00:07:26,280 Bank of England last week who more or less said we may have to 144 00:07:26,280 --> 00:07:28,920 raise interest rates, you know, two or three times this year 145 00:07:28,920 --> 00:07:30,600 when we're supposed to lower them. 146 00:07:30,960 --> 00:07:33,240 We could have inflation at 6 to 7%. 147 00:07:33,520 --> 00:07:35,040 None of this was supposed to happen. 148 00:07:35,240 --> 00:07:37,520 You know, the the German Chancellor is in a terrible 149 00:07:37,520 --> 00:07:41,280 position because his economy is now, their growth forecast has 150 00:07:41,280 --> 00:07:45,480 been reduced to 0.5%. This was supposed to be the year 151 00:07:46,000 --> 00:07:48,480 in which all these economies who were in the doldrums were 152 00:07:48,480 --> 00:07:51,320 supposed to come out of those doldrums and finally start 153 00:07:51,320 --> 00:07:54,720 growing again. And all that has been upended by 154 00:07:54,720 --> 00:07:58,360 this war and those governments. And Starmer will find out, you 155 00:07:58,360 --> 00:08:00,280 know, at the end of this week. There are other reasons there, 156 00:08:00,280 --> 00:08:02,680 of course, as well. But then he will find out to 157 00:08:02,680 --> 00:08:07,480 what extent this war has created real political pain at the 158 00:08:07,480 --> 00:08:10,120 ballot box. And I think this is something 159 00:08:10,640 --> 00:08:14,200 like so much else in this war of choice that is, you know, this 160 00:08:14,200 --> 00:08:17,760 put the cat amongst pigeons. I mean, all these alliances are 161 00:08:17,920 --> 00:08:22,040 being re fought and redefined and and and rearranged. 162 00:08:22,040 --> 00:08:25,080 So suddenly you've got Israel getting on really well with UAE. 163 00:08:25,280 --> 00:08:27,240 They did sort of anyway with the Abrahamic Corps. 164 00:08:27,240 --> 00:08:31,000 But here's Israel supplying the Iron Dome to the United Arab 165 00:08:31,000 --> 00:08:34,200 Emirates to help them protect themselves against the Iranians. 166 00:08:34,480 --> 00:08:36,559 You've got the Pakistanis involved. 167 00:08:36,559 --> 00:08:40,760 You've got China sitting on the sidelines, both helping Iran but 168 00:08:40,760 --> 00:08:43,320 at the same time trying to sort of sound a little bit like an 169 00:08:43,320 --> 00:08:46,320 honest broker. It's fascinating to what extent 170 00:08:46,320 --> 00:08:52,280 this war continues to rearrange just about everything, you know, 171 00:08:52,280 --> 00:08:55,240 on the diplomatic sphere. And the one thing that people 172 00:08:55,240 --> 00:08:58,160 aren't talking about in the White House, unless you, you 173 00:08:58,160 --> 00:09:00,920 know, correct me if I'm wrong, is regime change. 174 00:09:01,240 --> 00:09:03,080 They're not even talking about the nuclear program much 175 00:09:03,080 --> 00:09:04,520 anymore. So it's all become a war of 176 00:09:04,520 --> 00:09:07,920 necessity about this one narrow strip of water. 177 00:09:09,120 --> 00:09:10,760 Yeah. I mean, obviously they do still 178 00:09:10,800 --> 00:09:13,800 try to say repeatedly that the original objective and the main 179 00:09:13,800 --> 00:09:18,400 objective is to try to limit the nuclear ambitions of Iran. 180 00:09:18,400 --> 00:09:22,040 And in fact, on that, Pete Hegseth interestingly kind of 181 00:09:22,040 --> 00:09:25,200 been open about something that everyone thought but they hadn't 182 00:09:25,240 --> 00:09:29,080 admitted so openly as he had both today, but also when he was 183 00:09:29,080 --> 00:09:32,560 in front of senators and representatives last week, which 184 00:09:32,560 --> 00:09:35,840 was they did believe that the nuclear facilities had been 185 00:09:36,040 --> 00:09:40,200 obliterated last June. And the reason for going in now 186 00:09:40,200 --> 00:09:43,440 was because of nuclear ambitions, not because that had 187 00:09:43,440 --> 00:09:45,000 restarted. And I thought it was interesting 188 00:09:45,000 --> 00:09:47,720 to see him admit to both of those things on that point of 189 00:09:47,720 --> 00:09:50,640 the economic impact on the world and why the Strait of Hormuz, 190 00:09:50,720 --> 00:09:53,360 This has become the absolute centre of all of this. 191 00:09:53,360 --> 00:09:55,800 It was so interesting when our Chancellor Rachel Reeves was 192 00:09:55,800 --> 00:09:59,960 over here in Washington DC, speaking to like senior British 193 00:09:59,960 --> 00:10:03,200 government sources here. I mean, first of all, the fury 194 00:10:03,720 --> 00:10:08,480 from her, which I have never seen a minister hit out quite 195 00:10:08,480 --> 00:10:12,360 like she did at the Americans. But secondly, someone behind the 196 00:10:12,360 --> 00:10:14,840 scenes was saying we are all going to, all the incumbent 197 00:10:14,840 --> 00:10:17,480 governments across Europe and across the world are going to 198 00:10:17,480 --> 00:10:20,760 get COVID style backlashes as a result of this. 199 00:10:20,760 --> 00:10:23,800 Now, it's all very well for the Americans to say the oil's your 200 00:10:23,800 --> 00:10:26,680 problem, not our problem. It turns out it is their problem 201 00:10:26,680 --> 00:10:28,560 because oil prices are set globally. 202 00:10:28,720 --> 00:10:32,880 And so even if America can produce its own oil, which it 203 00:10:32,880 --> 00:10:36,880 can, this is all affecting the prices at the petrol pump. 204 00:10:36,880 --> 00:10:41,280 I think petrol is a dollar higher than it was a year ago, 205 00:10:41,480 --> 00:10:44,600 over 440. Now diesel's up $2.00. 206 00:10:44,800 --> 00:10:47,920 So it is a massive problem for Trump. 207 00:10:47,960 --> 00:10:51,040 I mean, again, they were talking today in the Pentagon about 208 00:10:51,040 --> 00:10:55,000 trying to get peace talks going. But you can see the difficulty 209 00:10:55,000 --> 00:10:56,560 of it. They admitted that those small 210 00:10:56,560 --> 00:11:00,200 Iranian boats have very little, you know, actual military 211 00:11:00,200 --> 00:11:02,240 equipment on them. They're people there with guns. 212 00:11:02,400 --> 00:11:06,440 And through that they've been able to 'cause this level of 213 00:11:06,440 --> 00:11:10,680 economic damage, which is why the Americans are reacting now. 214 00:11:10,680 --> 00:11:15,280 So, you know, forcefully to that one point in terms of peace 215 00:11:15,280 --> 00:11:18,320 talks, it, you know, they felt like they were starting then 216 00:11:18,320 --> 00:11:20,520 they weren't starting. There's been no move to send 217 00:11:20,520 --> 00:11:23,000 anyone. Pakistan are obviously still 218 00:11:23,000 --> 00:11:25,960 trying very hard. But at the same time, you know, 219 00:11:25,960 --> 00:11:29,480 I was talking to people here inside Congress who I though are 220 00:11:29,480 --> 00:11:32,520 in Donald Trump's ear. And they're saying, they're 221 00:11:32,520 --> 00:11:36,480 saying to me, we do not believe talks can work in any shape or 222 00:11:36,480 --> 00:11:38,200 form. One person was saying to me, we 223 00:11:38,200 --> 00:11:41,520 just need to absolutely, you know, obliterate Hag Island and 224 00:11:41,520 --> 00:11:43,440 get then get there, get out of there. 225 00:11:43,680 --> 00:11:47,600 And and that's the sort of thing he's also hearing on one side of 226 00:11:47,600 --> 00:11:50,400 the fence here. I think it all gets back to the 227 00:11:50,400 --> 00:11:54,720 original sin of this conflict, which was a conflict of choice 228 00:11:54,720 --> 00:11:57,440 launched by the Americans and the Israelis together. 229 00:11:57,440 --> 00:12:00,560 Now, as I've said before, the Israelis have a very clear logic 230 00:12:00,560 --> 00:12:03,520 in this. And Netanyahu has been very open 231 00:12:04,080 --> 00:12:07,720 in the last few days actually saying this is unfinished 232 00:12:07,720 --> 00:12:10,640 business for us, right? We need regime change. 233 00:12:10,640 --> 00:12:12,720 We're not seeing that. So doing a deal with these 234 00:12:12,720 --> 00:12:15,920 people is not going to work for Tel Aviv in the long term. 235 00:12:16,120 --> 00:12:18,440 And that might mean that the Israelis reserve the right to 236 00:12:18,600 --> 00:12:21,680 get involved again militarily at some stage in the future. 237 00:12:21,680 --> 00:12:24,920 And then the question is, does America, you know, follow them? 238 00:12:25,040 --> 00:12:29,640 And, and, and Hexworth was at such pains today to point out 239 00:12:29,640 --> 00:12:32,440 that actually it's the Americans calling the shots, not the 240 00:12:32,440 --> 00:12:34,880 Israelis. And I think that is a problem 241 00:12:34,880 --> 00:12:37,440 that will not go away. But again, remember this, it 242 00:12:37,440 --> 00:12:39,640 started with 15 different reasons. 243 00:12:39,640 --> 00:12:42,560 They were, they were making them up every 5 minutes of why they 244 00:12:42,560 --> 00:12:45,280 launched this war. So if you have a conflict that 245 00:12:45,280 --> 00:12:49,520 the American public does not see the overwhelming logic of, they 246 00:12:49,520 --> 00:12:53,960 didn't see why this should this war should happen, then it's 247 00:12:53,960 --> 00:12:56,160 down to the effects of the war. You know, you're measuring 248 00:12:56,160 --> 00:12:59,920 everything against the actual tangible consequences that this 249 00:12:59,920 --> 00:13:01,640 conflict is having. And if you're paying twice as 250 00:13:01,640 --> 00:13:05,000 much at the pump as you were before and meanwhile you've got 251 00:13:05,000 --> 00:13:08,200 a president who's obsessed with building a 90,000 square foot 252 00:13:08,200 --> 00:13:11,880 ballroom and a triumphant after Trump, you know, somewhere in 253 00:13:11,880 --> 00:13:16,320 Washington, I think ultimately that will be Trump's Achilles 254 00:13:16,320 --> 00:13:18,520 heel. And it could be manifested as 255 00:13:18,520 --> 00:13:20,960 soon as in the midterm elections, this combination of, 256 00:13:21,280 --> 00:13:23,600 you know, snubbing your nose at the affordability crisis that 257 00:13:23,600 --> 00:13:27,280 ordinary Americans are going through a war of of your choice 258 00:13:27,280 --> 00:13:29,800 that doesn't seem to make any sense to to the rest of the 259 00:13:29,800 --> 00:13:32,760 country that is making their lives even more difficult. 260 00:13:32,800 --> 00:13:36,960 Meanwhile, spending a ton of money on projects that look like 261 00:13:36,960 --> 00:13:40,840 vanity projects that are kind of your branding culture gone 262 00:13:40,840 --> 00:13:43,400 bonkers, right? Everything's got a Trump name, 263 00:13:43,680 --> 00:13:46,160 you know, whether it's an aircraft carrier or Trump, 264 00:13:46,160 --> 00:13:50,040 Trump's face and signature on the, you know, dollar bills or 265 00:13:50,040 --> 00:13:52,520 the triumphant arch. I mean, this is he's always been 266 00:13:52,520 --> 00:13:54,560 a branding guy. We knew that because everything 267 00:13:54,560 --> 00:13:57,040 that he put up in New York was a Trump Tower. 268 00:13:57,280 --> 00:13:59,960 But Even so, this is going to new levels. 269 00:14:00,200 --> 00:14:02,720 And I think, I mean, I wonder what you think. 270 00:14:02,720 --> 00:14:05,520 I mean, does this is this is Achilles heel and the 271 00:14:05,520 --> 00:14:08,120 Republicans Achilles heel in the midterm elections? 272 00:14:08,880 --> 00:14:11,600 I mean, I definitely think it's massively problematic. 273 00:14:11,600 --> 00:14:14,880 I think, you know, we talked a bit about it last week, but we 274 00:14:14,880 --> 00:14:18,520 had a focus group done by Public 1st that I listened to. 275 00:14:18,560 --> 00:14:22,400 And, and just the first caveat to just put in place, lots of 276 00:14:22,440 --> 00:14:25,880 Republican voters still love Trump, his kind of MAGA base, as 277 00:14:25,880 --> 00:14:28,400 you would call it, absolutely love him. 278 00:14:28,400 --> 00:14:30,800 Only 4% are unhappy with him at the moment. 279 00:14:30,800 --> 00:14:34,640 That said, you know, to win a country, you need the 280 00:14:34,640 --> 00:14:38,200 independents who have shifted heavily away from Trump, and you 281 00:14:38,200 --> 00:14:42,760 need the softer Republicans, who are also more likely to say 282 00:14:42,760 --> 00:14:44,200 they're not happy with what's going on. 283 00:14:44,200 --> 00:14:46,160 And I think there are a few things that stuck out to me as 284 00:14:46,160 --> 00:14:47,200 the things they're not happy about. 285 00:14:47,200 --> 00:14:49,840 The first is that the economy is dominating on every front. 286 00:14:50,120 --> 00:14:51,560 People are really feeling the pinch. 287 00:14:51,560 --> 00:14:54,840 So if the economic situation is not sorted out, that affects 288 00:14:54,840 --> 00:14:56,880 him. The second was even his biggest 289 00:14:56,880 --> 00:15:01,120 supporters really don't like the way that Donald Trump talks. 290 00:15:01,680 --> 00:15:04,120 They sort of say we like what he's doing, but we just don't 291 00:15:04,120 --> 00:15:06,720 like the way he's saying it and the way he's going about it. 292 00:15:06,720 --> 00:15:10,600 And I think the kind of putting his legacy down physically 293 00:15:10,760 --> 00:15:13,480 across Washington, DC, across the country into the dollar 294 00:15:13,480 --> 00:15:17,080 bill, the thing he's trying to do more than anything fits into 295 00:15:17,080 --> 00:15:20,800 that category of it's it's just a bit unseemly for people. 296 00:15:21,040 --> 00:15:25,120 They don't really like it. And, and, you know, I just don't 297 00:15:25,120 --> 00:15:28,600 think they have successfully made the argument when it comes 298 00:15:28,600 --> 00:15:30,440 to the Iran war. I mean, the thing obviously 299 00:15:30,440 --> 00:15:33,160 looming ahead of us is the visit to China. 300 00:15:33,360 --> 00:15:37,240 Just tell me what you make of the situation in terms of the 301 00:15:37,240 --> 00:15:40,240 American relationship with China and China's relationship with 302 00:15:40,240 --> 00:15:42,320 Iran right now. I will do that in a second, but 303 00:15:42,320 --> 00:15:45,200 you've got to answer this question first, Anushka, who do 304 00:15:45,200 --> 00:15:48,080 you think is actually whispering in Trump's ear? 305 00:15:48,240 --> 00:15:52,280 If anyone at all saying, you know what, Mr. President, that 306 00:15:52,280 --> 00:15:55,560 meme of you as Jesus, not a great idea, or you as kind of a 307 00:15:55,560 --> 00:15:59,040 Gothic warrior straight out of the Valkyrie on the White House 308 00:15:59,040 --> 00:16:02,560 social feed, not a great idea. Is there anyone, as far as you 309 00:16:02,560 --> 00:16:06,440 know, who's telling, you know, who's talking, whispering truth 310 00:16:06,440 --> 00:16:10,040 to Trump power? Well, I was sitting chatting 311 00:16:10,040 --> 00:16:13,120 very recently to people who had worked with Donald Trump in the 312 00:16:13,160 --> 00:16:15,720 first term, and I sort of asked them this question. 313 00:16:15,720 --> 00:16:18,040 And obviously they're no longer working with him. 314 00:16:18,080 --> 00:16:21,200 So they might have this opinion, but I think their view was that 315 00:16:21,200 --> 00:16:25,080 in the first term, one by one, there tended to be someone who 316 00:16:25,080 --> 00:16:27,800 was willing to say, this isn't OK. 317 00:16:27,800 --> 00:16:30,160 So I said, well, what about Susie Wiles, the chief of staff? 318 00:16:30,160 --> 00:16:35,000 And they felt that she sees her position as basically helping 319 00:16:35,000 --> 00:16:37,360 him to achieve what he wants to achieve. 320 00:16:37,880 --> 00:16:41,480 That doesn't mean, by the way, that she isn't thinking about 321 00:16:41,480 --> 00:16:43,480 the midterms. We know that she spent a lot of 322 00:16:43,480 --> 00:16:46,920 time holed up with Republican strategists in, you know, hotel 323 00:16:46,920 --> 00:16:50,920 rooms around Washington, DC, having conversations about the 324 00:16:50,920 --> 00:16:52,480 midterms. They know that things are 325 00:16:52,480 --> 00:16:54,880 difficult. They know that the war has gone 326 00:16:54,880 --> 00:16:57,920 down badly and that the economic situation is a massive problem 327 00:16:57,920 --> 00:17:00,360 for them. They are trying to shift him in 328 00:17:00,360 --> 00:17:02,960 that direction. But I definitely think there is 329 00:17:02,960 --> 00:17:08,119 a lot less control attempting to pull him down, attempting to 330 00:17:08,200 --> 00:17:11,440 make him stop saying things. It's much more of a let Trump be 331 00:17:11,440 --> 00:17:14,160 Trump administration than the first time round. 332 00:17:14,560 --> 00:17:17,960 The second group of people who are in his ear are the people 333 00:17:17,960 --> 00:17:21,760 who are one step away, the senators, the commentators. 334 00:17:22,119 --> 00:17:25,400 And and, you know, I'd listened to a very long interview, but 335 00:17:25,400 --> 00:17:27,400 very interesting one with Tucker Carlson. 336 00:17:27,400 --> 00:17:31,960 And he was obviously a huge kind of MAGA Trump supporting 337 00:17:33,000 --> 00:17:36,320 influencer on the right who has turned very strongly against him 338 00:17:36,320 --> 00:17:38,280 because of the Iran war. But I thought there was a couple 339 00:17:38,280 --> 00:17:40,160 of things that were really interesting in the run up to the 340 00:17:40,160 --> 00:17:42,320 war. It was very clear that Trump was 341 00:17:42,320 --> 00:17:45,520 having repeated conversations with people like Tucker Carlson 342 00:17:45,520 --> 00:17:48,920 on the one side, but also, you know, the equivalent of him on 343 00:17:48,920 --> 00:17:51,440 the other side, who people like Mark Levin, who obviously had 344 00:17:51,440 --> 00:17:54,600 more influence than he had on this particular occasion. 345 00:17:54,840 --> 00:17:57,880 And it's kind of incredible to think that that level of 346 00:17:57,880 --> 00:18:00,080 influence is also coming in from the inside. 347 00:18:00,080 --> 00:18:02,560 I've spoken to senators who've been like on the phone to him 348 00:18:02,560 --> 00:18:05,240 that morning as well. And so he's listening to all 349 00:18:05,240 --> 00:18:08,400 these people, but ultimately I think it's very hard for anyone 350 00:18:08,400 --> 00:18:11,560 to control what he's doing. Well, as he's told The New York 351 00:18:11,560 --> 00:18:14,360 Times at the beginning of the year, my conscience is my voice, 352 00:18:14,360 --> 00:18:16,120 my inner voice. I live, you know, I feel it in 353 00:18:16,120 --> 00:18:19,640 my bones, all this instinctive stuff that has always been part 354 00:18:19,640 --> 00:18:21,640 of his, you know, trademark politics. 355 00:18:21,920 --> 00:18:23,680 Anyway, you asked me a question about China. 356 00:18:23,960 --> 00:18:27,920 I think China, you know, China yet again, ever since Trump got 357 00:18:27,920 --> 00:18:30,640 back into office, they must have been alarmed during that second 358 00:18:30,640 --> 00:18:34,000 inauguration speech when he talked about hemispheric 359 00:18:34,000 --> 00:18:37,600 control, etcetera. Alarmed and not so alarmed alarm 360 00:18:37,600 --> 00:18:40,400 because they're suddenly thought, OK, this guy's flexing 361 00:18:40,400 --> 00:18:42,360 his muscles the way that he didn't do before. 362 00:18:42,680 --> 00:18:45,240 Less alarm because if they thought that he was going to be 363 00:18:45,240 --> 00:18:48,240 occupied with the Western Hemisphere, then surely he'll 364 00:18:48,240 --> 00:18:49,920 leave us alone in the Eastern Hemisphere. 365 00:18:50,560 --> 00:18:53,520 And then of course, the alarm got worse and worse with the 366 00:18:53,600 --> 00:18:55,840 with Liberation Day and the trade tariffs that were 367 00:18:55,840 --> 00:18:58,320 announced. But the Chinese are also, if 368 00:18:58,320 --> 00:19:00,880 anything has happened this year with the China America 369 00:19:00,880 --> 00:19:04,720 relationship, it is China realizing just just how much 370 00:19:04,720 --> 00:19:09,800 power it has and realizing what the limitations of American 371 00:19:09,800 --> 00:19:12,360 power look like. So first there was the trade 372 00:19:12,360 --> 00:19:16,320 war, which China definitely won because they leveraged the 373 00:19:16,320 --> 00:19:21,120 access to rare earth minerals, you know, in their interest and 374 00:19:21,120 --> 00:19:23,000 against America. It's a little bit like their 375 00:19:23,000 --> 00:19:26,480 version of the Strait of Hormuz And, you know, and using a kind 376 00:19:26,480 --> 00:19:29,560 of toll to say you don't go through this unless you pay us. 377 00:19:29,880 --> 00:19:32,880 And it was that leverage that brought the trade war over to 378 00:19:32,880 --> 00:19:35,320 China's side. And then you've got this summit 379 00:19:35,320 --> 00:19:39,360 that is taking place, in theory, still on the calendar next week. 380 00:19:39,360 --> 00:19:41,280 Now, this summer was supposed to happen in April. 381 00:19:41,520 --> 00:19:45,520 It was postponed after the beginning of the Iran war 382 00:19:45,720 --> 00:19:48,440 because Trump realized it would look really bad to go to China 383 00:19:48,720 --> 00:19:50,880 in the middle of a hot war that was still very much being fought 384 00:19:50,880 --> 00:19:53,280 at the time, upending markets and all the rest of it. 385 00:19:53,720 --> 00:19:57,520 And now, you know, he asked for a second date in in May, 386 00:19:57,560 --> 00:19:59,800 obviously thinking that may would be everything would be 387 00:19:59,800 --> 00:20:02,080 resolved by then, which it isn't. 388 00:20:02,760 --> 00:20:06,120 So to postpone the summit a second time would be highly 389 00:20:06,120 --> 00:20:08,720 embarrassing. And this meeting with Xi Jinping 390 00:20:08,720 --> 00:20:12,840 is one of the absolute kind of the key calendar moments of the 391 00:20:12,840 --> 00:20:16,120 second Trump administration. He has said so publicly over and 392 00:20:16,120 --> 00:20:18,440 over again. So postponing it again doesn't 393 00:20:18,440 --> 00:20:20,840 really work. But going to China, going to 394 00:20:20,840 --> 00:20:23,520 Beijing when the Strait of Hormuz is still? 395 00:20:23,920 --> 00:20:27,360 You know, a chokehold on the world economy thanks to a rump 396 00:20:27,360 --> 00:20:29,920 regime that should have been obliterated by now according to 397 00:20:29,920 --> 00:20:32,720 Trump, is also incredibly embarrassing. 398 00:20:32,960 --> 00:20:34,640 And then there's China's role in this. 399 00:20:34,640 --> 00:20:38,920 I mean, China and Iran have pretty close ties. 400 00:20:39,520 --> 00:20:42,920 Iran is part of China's Belt and Road project and has been for 401 00:20:42,920 --> 00:20:45,240 years. The Chinese have offered through 402 00:20:45,240 --> 00:20:50,480 the Pakistanis, the Iranians, a land import export route so 403 00:20:50,480 --> 00:20:52,360 that, you know, Chinese medicines and various other 404 00:20:52,360 --> 00:20:56,520 things can flow into Iran. And Iranian oil and steel and 405 00:20:56,520 --> 00:21:00,560 various other exports dates, for instance, can flow to China. 406 00:21:01,240 --> 00:21:05,520 So they are facilitating an Iranian work around the various 407 00:21:05,920 --> 00:21:09,480 economic blockades that are going on right now. 408 00:21:10,040 --> 00:21:13,400 And at the same time, of course, crucially, they're supplying 409 00:21:13,640 --> 00:21:17,080 some of the technology that allows Iranian drones to fly 410 00:21:17,080 --> 00:21:21,240 into buildings in the UAE or indeed in Israel, you know, or 411 00:21:21,240 --> 00:21:24,600 into American bases. So what do the, what does Trump 412 00:21:24,600 --> 00:21:27,760 tell the Chinese? What does he tell his friend Xi 413 00:21:27,760 --> 00:21:31,880 Jinping to back off or else? I can't imagine him doing that. 414 00:21:32,080 --> 00:21:34,080 So watch the Chinese in the next few weeks. 415 00:21:34,520 --> 00:21:37,040 I mean, they had their own fears and their own domestic issues, 416 00:21:37,160 --> 00:21:40,440 mainly around their economy. But again, they come out of this 417 00:21:40,640 --> 00:21:45,400 conflict looking like not just winners, but the kind of wise 418 00:21:45,840 --> 00:21:49,760 designated drivers of planet Earth, right? 419 00:21:49,760 --> 00:21:52,200 I mean, you've got Europeans having to make up their mind. 420 00:21:52,200 --> 00:21:56,000 What's better, to be with erratic Uncle Sam or the steely 421 00:21:56,000 --> 00:21:59,000 embrace of Uncle She? Not very pleasant, but at least 422 00:21:59,000 --> 00:22:01,160 we know where he's coming from and we kind of know where he's 423 00:22:01,160 --> 00:22:04,600 going. And on that note, I think it's a 424 00:22:04,600 --> 00:22:08,120 good time to bring in our guest. Before I do, I just want to 425 00:22:08,120 --> 00:22:12,000 mention an acronym that he uses a few times when we spoke to 426 00:22:12,000 --> 00:22:15,600 him, JCPOA, which we also talk about quite a lot. 427 00:22:15,600 --> 00:22:20,120 The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, which is also known as 428 00:22:20,120 --> 00:22:24,720 Barack Obama's Iran deal, the nuclear deal from 2015 in which 429 00:22:24,960 --> 00:22:28,560 there were a lifting of some sanctions for Iran in return for 430 00:22:28,560 --> 00:22:33,240 a promise not to enrich uranium beyond a certain point, the deal 431 00:22:33,360 --> 00:22:35,360 that Trump, of course, ripped up. 432 00:22:35,440 --> 00:22:38,760 We talk about that with Trita Parsi, who is the former 433 00:22:38,760 --> 00:22:42,840 president of the National Iranian American Council and now 434 00:22:42,840 --> 00:22:46,760 at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft. 435 00:22:46,920 --> 00:22:48,520 Have a listen to our conversation with him. 436 00:22:49,960 --> 00:22:52,800 Trita Parsi, thank you very much for coming on the programme. 437 00:22:53,120 --> 00:22:56,000 I mean, we're now into, I don't know what day it is, but you 438 00:22:56,000 --> 00:22:57,960 know, this thing has been dragging on for such a long 439 00:22:57,960 --> 00:22:59,960 time. It does feel as if though this 440 00:22:59,960 --> 00:23:03,240 could be quite an important week because of, you know, Operation 441 00:23:03,240 --> 00:23:06,720 Freedom, the kind of the, the clash of the two blockades, if 442 00:23:06,720 --> 00:23:08,680 you like. Where do you see this conflict 443 00:23:08,680 --> 00:23:10,720 at the moment? Well, I think the first thing I 444 00:23:10,720 --> 00:23:13,800 would note is that according to the administration and according 445 00:23:13,800 --> 00:23:17,320 to the different groups and entities that supported this 446 00:23:17,320 --> 00:23:20,360 idea of a blockade, of a blockade, Iran should have 447 00:23:20,360 --> 00:23:23,800 crumbled about 11 days ago and it hasn't. 448 00:23:24,440 --> 00:23:26,520 And we are now hearing reporting, which is not 449 00:23:26,520 --> 00:23:28,680 surprising at all. It's already been going on for 450 00:23:28,680 --> 00:23:30,080 some time. But it was in the Wall Street 451 00:23:30,080 --> 00:23:33,680 Journal today that Trump is now frustrated that the Iranians 452 00:23:33,680 --> 00:23:36,520 have not caved as a result of this blockade. 453 00:23:37,200 --> 00:23:41,120 Zoom back and you will remember that earlier on, he was also 454 00:23:41,120 --> 00:23:44,480 frustrated that Iran had not caved simply by the military 455 00:23:44,480 --> 00:23:47,840 threats that the United States had issued back in January. 456 00:23:48,680 --> 00:23:52,320 And this is a pattern that we see in which Trump is pursuing 457 00:23:52,320 --> 00:23:56,200 coercive strategies with the goal of achieving Iran's 458 00:23:56,200 --> 00:23:58,800 surrender. Neither of those components 459 00:23:58,800 --> 00:24:00,240 work. You're not going to be able to 460 00:24:00,240 --> 00:24:03,400 achieve anything particularly coercively, particularly after 461 00:24:03,400 --> 00:24:05,880 the way this war has gone and with the leverage that the 462 00:24:05,880 --> 00:24:08,000 Iranians now have gained through that war. 463 00:24:08,200 --> 00:24:11,560 But also surrender was never in the cards. 464 00:24:11,960 --> 00:24:14,280 Iran is not going to surrender. Obviously, United States is not 465 00:24:14,280 --> 00:24:16,640 going to surrender. So as long as that is the goal 466 00:24:16,840 --> 00:24:19,160 and the method is coercion, we're just just going to see 467 00:24:19,160 --> 00:24:21,760 more destabilization of war. And ultimately, at least in the 468 00:24:21,760 --> 00:24:25,160 short run, it tends to backfire more on Trump than on the 469 00:24:25,160 --> 00:24:26,840 Iranians. But they aren't. 470 00:24:26,840 --> 00:24:28,640 The Iranians are losing a lot of money out there. 471 00:24:28,640 --> 00:24:31,920 And they they must be losing hundreds of millions of dollars 472 00:24:31,920 --> 00:24:35,680 in income a week from the oil that they're not selling, you 473 00:24:35,680 --> 00:24:37,600 know, from the steel that they're not exporting. 474 00:24:37,960 --> 00:24:41,840 And even though there's a kind of land route across Pakistan 475 00:24:41,840 --> 00:24:45,320 that's been opened up more, surely that doesn't compensate 476 00:24:45,320 --> 00:24:47,240 to what they've lost in the Strait of Hormuz. 477 00:24:48,080 --> 00:24:50,440 Not at all. They are definitely suffering 478 00:24:50,440 --> 00:24:53,160 and but that is the same pattern that we've seen before. 479 00:24:53,160 --> 00:24:57,400 All of the previous sanctions also imposed a significant cost 480 00:24:57,400 --> 00:25:00,320 on the Iranians. All of them were effective in 481 00:25:00,320 --> 00:25:03,640 terms of making life more difficult for the Iranian 482 00:25:03,640 --> 00:25:06,080 economy, for the average Iranian, as well As for the 483 00:25:06,080 --> 00:25:09,320 government. However, the success of these 484 00:25:09,320 --> 00:25:12,880 measures is not based on the measurement of pain it inflicts. 485 00:25:12,880 --> 00:25:15,440 It's whether the pain is translated into a change of 486 00:25:15,440 --> 00:25:19,480 policy, and this has not changed the Iranian policy, nor has any 487 00:25:19,480 --> 00:25:21,160 of the previous sanctions done so. 488 00:25:21,360 --> 00:25:25,280 The only time the United States has managed to get a significant 489 00:25:25,280 --> 00:25:28,480 national security shift on the Iranian side is through 490 00:25:28,480 --> 00:25:31,200 diplomacy and through the exchange of concessions, and 491 00:25:31,200 --> 00:25:34,720 that was in the JCPOA. Can you explain that a bit 492 00:25:34,720 --> 00:25:36,440 further? You know, Donald Trump is 493 00:25:36,440 --> 00:25:39,480 obviously looking at this. It's maybe a word that's not 494 00:25:39,480 --> 00:25:42,800 always used to describe him, but he was thinking about it in a 495 00:25:42,800 --> 00:25:46,200 rational way that causing this amount of pain would eventually 496 00:25:46,200 --> 00:25:50,080 lead to some form of surrender. But that was not the right type 497 00:25:50,080 --> 00:25:52,600 of thinking for this Iranian regime. 498 00:25:52,600 --> 00:25:56,880 Can you explain why there never comes a point of surrender? 499 00:25:57,480 --> 00:25:59,440 Well, there's several different reasons for it. 500 00:25:59,440 --> 00:26:02,560 First of all, some of these questions are of national 501 00:26:02,560 --> 00:26:07,400 security, existential characteristic for the Iranians, 502 00:26:08,000 --> 00:26:11,960 in which you're not going to see those type of surrender. 503 00:26:11,960 --> 00:26:14,680 I mean, you saw concessions from them in the JCPA, but you're not 504 00:26:14,680 --> 00:26:17,160 going to see surrender. But there's also a different 505 00:26:17,160 --> 00:26:19,760 element here that is really important to understand. 506 00:26:19,760 --> 00:26:23,600 Trump is approaching Iran as if it is a regular Middle Eastern 507 00:26:23,600 --> 00:26:26,440 dictatorship run by a family or one person. 508 00:26:26,680 --> 00:26:29,600 And if you manage to really squeeze that person, you know, 509 00:26:29,600 --> 00:26:32,800 whether it's Saddam or Gaddafi, surrenderers in the cards. 510 00:26:33,440 --> 00:26:36,640 This is not what Iran is. Iran is not a democracy by any 511 00:26:36,640 --> 00:26:39,600 stretch of the imagination. It is an authoritarian state, 512 00:26:39,760 --> 00:26:43,320 but it has a system that is not dependent on anyone single 513 00:26:43,320 --> 00:26:44,840 individual. That's based on numerous 514 00:26:44,840 --> 00:26:47,640 institutions. And in order to get any major 515 00:26:47,640 --> 00:26:51,200 decisions from them, you would have to actually manage that 516 00:26:51,200 --> 00:26:52,680 system. And, and this is what happened 517 00:26:52,680 --> 00:26:55,640 in the JCPA was rather hard making sure that you got the 518 00:26:55,640 --> 00:26:57,840 majority of the system to be in favor of this. 519 00:26:58,200 --> 00:27:02,320 The majority of the system will never be in favor of surrender. 520 00:27:02,640 --> 00:27:05,520 It simply will be the end of the Islamic Republic. 521 00:27:05,520 --> 00:27:08,080 It would be suicide. And I told the administration 522 00:27:08,080 --> 00:27:10,560 before this war that the, you know, they're making a huge 523 00:27:10,560 --> 00:27:13,400 mistake thinking that the Iranians fear war more than they 524 00:27:13,400 --> 00:27:16,080 fear surrender. They fear surrender far, far 525 00:27:16,080 --> 00:27:18,320 more than they feared war. But you're you're talking 526 00:27:18,320 --> 00:27:22,840 obviously about the structures that run Iran and we'll come 527 00:27:22,840 --> 00:27:24,280 back to Project Freedom, I'm sure. 528 00:27:24,280 --> 00:27:27,080 But just just on the kind of a broader point, which is the 529 00:27:27,080 --> 00:27:30,200 Iranian population and the desires of the Iranian 530 00:27:30,200 --> 00:27:33,560 population. We get to a point and and no one 531 00:27:33,560 --> 00:27:35,360 is saying what was the right way to get there. 532 00:27:35,360 --> 00:27:40,520 But the Iran deal that you're talking about with Barack Obama 533 00:27:40,760 --> 00:27:42,960 didn't help. The Iranian people did it in the 534 00:27:42,960 --> 00:27:46,240 same way as they were looking for, or a lot of them are 535 00:27:46,240 --> 00:27:49,040 looking for. Is there any kind of system 536 00:27:49,280 --> 00:27:53,040 technique, you know, that that can happen, that can actually 537 00:27:53,040 --> 00:27:55,400 lead to more freedom for Iranian people? 538 00:27:56,400 --> 00:27:58,920 I actually think that is not entirely accurate. 539 00:27:59,440 --> 00:28:04,120 The Iran deal did not end up favoring the Iranian people in 540 00:28:04,120 --> 00:28:07,840 the manner that it could have had it been remaining in place. 541 00:28:08,600 --> 00:28:12,440 But it was, you know, Trump walked out of it after less than 542 00:28:12,440 --> 00:28:16,040 two years. And as a result, the type of 543 00:28:16,040 --> 00:28:18,560 measures that would have benefited the Iranian people 544 00:28:18,560 --> 00:28:21,400 never really came in. But let's see what happened in 545 00:28:21,400 --> 00:28:24,200 those two first years. The Iranian economy grew between 546 00:28:24,200 --> 00:28:28,240 6 and 7% within the first two years of the JCPOA. 547 00:28:28,520 --> 00:28:31,840 Had it been left in place by now, we would have had it for 11 548 00:28:31,840 --> 00:28:33,920 years. And if Iran's economy obviously 549 00:28:33,920 --> 00:28:35,000 would have slowed down a little bit. 550 00:28:35,160 --> 00:28:38,080 But if it had continued to grow as a result of these sanctions 551 00:28:38,080 --> 00:28:41,240 lifting, undoubtedly the Iranian, the middle class, would 552 00:28:41,240 --> 00:28:44,360 have grown much stronger. And its position vis a vis state 553 00:28:44,360 --> 00:28:46,800 would have actually gone significantly stronger. 554 00:28:47,080 --> 00:28:50,000 Instead we had the opposite. Trump walked out of the deal. 555 00:28:50,200 --> 00:28:52,920 The Iranian economy started to crumble and shrink. 556 00:28:53,160 --> 00:28:57,520 The Iranian middle class was decimated. 1/3 of the middle 557 00:28:57,520 --> 00:29:01,920 class between 2018 and 2019 went into poverty as a result of 558 00:29:01,920 --> 00:29:04,920 these sanctions. That is a far worse way of 559 00:29:04,920 --> 00:29:07,360 treating the Iranian people than the JCPOA was. 560 00:29:07,520 --> 00:29:10,520 Had the JCPA play would have been left in place, we would 561 00:29:10,520 --> 00:29:13,120 have a very different scenario. I personally think the Iranian 562 00:29:13,120 --> 00:29:16,640 people would have been out on the street protesting again for 563 00:29:16,640 --> 00:29:19,160 greater political freedoms, but they would be protesting from a 564 00:29:19,160 --> 00:29:22,600 position of strength rather than from a position of the sphere, 565 00:29:22,680 --> 00:29:24,960 which is the result of leaving the JCPOA. 566 00:29:25,440 --> 00:29:27,920 Of course, they were out on the streets in the beginning of the 567 00:29:27,920 --> 00:29:30,680 year, the end of last year, because of the economic 568 00:29:30,680 --> 00:29:33,600 problems, you know, caused partly by sanctions, but also by 569 00:29:34,120 --> 00:29:36,080 a legacy of mismanagement and so on. 570 00:29:36,400 --> 00:29:40,400 I just wonder at what stage do the people become more dangerous 571 00:29:40,400 --> 00:29:44,000 for the regime that is still taking on to power when they're 572 00:29:44,000 --> 00:29:47,320 really squeezed as they're I'm sure are now, you know, by a 573 00:29:47,320 --> 00:29:50,320 combination of war and, you know, terrible economic 574 00:29:50,320 --> 00:29:52,960 privations? Or are they more dangerous for 575 00:29:52,960 --> 00:29:56,800 the regime once they've, you know, once the the rains have 576 00:29:56,800 --> 00:29:58,520 been loosened a little bit and they feel a bit more 577 00:29:58,520 --> 00:30:01,760 comfortable, which would have involved, you know, sanctions 578 00:30:01,760 --> 00:30:03,720 being lifted in the past, which obviously wasn't the case. 579 00:30:03,960 --> 00:30:08,680 When does the when do the people become most powerful in in terms 580 00:30:08,680 --> 00:30:11,960 of getting rid of the regime? What we have seen in other 581 00:30:11,960 --> 00:30:15,080 countries, and I think the same pattern is repeated in Iran, is 582 00:30:15,080 --> 00:30:18,840 that when economic situations really get very bad, it does 583 00:30:18,840 --> 00:30:22,840 increase the tendency of protests, which is totally 584 00:30:22,840 --> 00:30:26,560 logical and understandable. It does at the same time tend to 585 00:30:26,560 --> 00:30:30,640 decrease the successfulness of these protests, which is very 586 00:30:30,640 --> 00:30:32,360 critical thing. You have more protests, but 587 00:30:32,360 --> 00:30:33,720 they're actually not achieving much. 588 00:30:34,040 --> 00:30:37,520 Whereas if you had them taking place during periods in which 589 00:30:37,520 --> 00:30:38,880 the middle class actually is strong. 590 00:30:38,880 --> 00:30:41,320 And the middle class is the backbone of the democracy 591 00:30:41,320 --> 00:30:44,120 movement in Iran just as much as it has been in almost every 592 00:30:44,120 --> 00:30:47,000 other country. We have very few cases in which 593 00:30:47,000 --> 00:30:51,400 we have seen a country being subjected a type of embargo 594 00:30:51,480 --> 00:30:55,800 style sanctions that Iran has and transition to democracy as a 595 00:30:55,800 --> 00:30:57,240 result. In fact, there's only one 596 00:30:57,240 --> 00:30:59,200 example and that is South Africa. 597 00:30:59,440 --> 00:31:03,560 In all of the other cases when we have this level of sanctions 598 00:31:03,560 --> 00:31:08,040 on a country, it tends to make the state stronger vis A vis the 599 00:31:08,040 --> 00:31:11,120 society. Society grows much, much weaker 600 00:31:11,120 --> 00:31:14,040 and the the state tends to become more repressive 601 00:31:14,040 --> 00:31:17,240 internally and in addition it tends to become more aggressive 602 00:31:17,320 --> 00:31:19,720 externally. That's the track record in most 603 00:31:19,720 --> 00:31:22,080 of these cases. Again, only one situation in 604 00:31:22,080 --> 00:31:26,720 which we can see an embargo style sanctions regime leading 605 00:31:26,720 --> 00:31:29,760 to democracy and that was the very unique circumstances of 606 00:31:29,760 --> 00:31:32,720 South Africa. So if we continue your logic, 607 00:31:32,720 --> 00:31:38,520 then does this mean that a perpetual war with the West, you 608 00:31:38,520 --> 00:31:41,360 know, with America and Israel and perhaps others who might get 609 00:31:41,360 --> 00:31:44,040 involved eventually? And, you know, whether it's a 610 00:31:44,040 --> 00:31:46,880 ceasefire or actually a hot war, but this perpetual state of 611 00:31:46,880 --> 00:31:50,760 siege, you know, including all the sanctions and all the other 612 00:31:50,760 --> 00:31:54,000 privations linked to it, actually helps the regime. 613 00:31:54,000 --> 00:31:55,480 And they're absolutely fine with that. 614 00:31:56,560 --> 00:31:58,960 No, it leads to the strengthening of the worst 615 00:31:58,960 --> 00:32:02,360 elements within that regime, not the regime as a whole. 616 00:32:02,640 --> 00:32:06,240 We have seen a dramatic radicalization of the regime and 617 00:32:06,240 --> 00:32:09,680 much more hardening of the regime as a result of these wars 618 00:32:09,680 --> 00:32:12,720 and the sanctions, etcetera. The reform movement in Iran that 619 00:32:12,720 --> 00:32:15,600 had significant amount of support, I mean, we saw massive 620 00:32:15,600 --> 00:32:18,800 numbers participating in the elections was completely 621 00:32:18,800 --> 00:32:22,640 discredited as a result of the fact that Trump walked out of 622 00:32:22,640 --> 00:32:26,480 the JCPOA and then Joe Biden did not walk back into the JCPOA. 623 00:32:26,920 --> 00:32:29,560 The reform movement had put all of its eggs in the basket of 624 00:32:29,560 --> 00:32:32,720 saying we can resolve the economic situation in Iran if we 625 00:32:32,720 --> 00:32:34,600 resolve the tensions with the United States. 626 00:32:34,840 --> 00:32:38,160 They struck A compromise and yet the United States walked out of 627 00:32:38,160 --> 00:32:40,080 the deal. And this really destroyed the 628 00:32:40,080 --> 00:32:42,360 credibility of the reform movement, which at this point 629 00:32:42,360 --> 00:32:45,200 essentially is an increasingly a non factor. 630 00:32:45,400 --> 00:32:48,280 Those who took over are the much more hardline elements. 631 00:32:48,280 --> 00:32:51,600 And we saw of course, how Raisi became president and later on 632 00:32:51,600 --> 00:32:56,040 was died in that crash. But what we're seeing again is 633 00:32:56,200 --> 00:32:59,480 that these type of policies, just as much as this war, tends 634 00:32:59,480 --> 00:33:01,440 to favour the Hawks within that regime. 635 00:33:02,280 --> 00:33:05,920 So, so can I ask you back on Project Freedom, which we're 636 00:33:05,920 --> 00:33:08,480 obviously seeing at the moment, or as they've named it, from 637 00:33:08,480 --> 00:33:11,240 Operation Epic Fury to Project Freedom? 638 00:33:11,480 --> 00:33:15,040 I thought it was interesting listening to the Secretary of 639 00:33:15,040 --> 00:33:18,520 War, Pete Hegseth, and then Dan Kane running the military 640 00:33:18,520 --> 00:33:23,160 operation next to him, basically admit that their objectives have 641 00:33:23,160 --> 00:33:27,680 had to change because they have seen the power of the Iranians 642 00:33:27,680 --> 00:33:30,600 to be able to hold the global economy hostage. 643 00:33:30,960 --> 00:33:33,480 I mean, just two things on that. It's not acceptable. 644 00:33:33,480 --> 00:33:36,720 Is it for the Iranians or for the Americans or for the, you 645 00:33:36,720 --> 00:33:41,920 know, for a man to try and take an international waterway and 646 00:33:41,920 --> 00:33:45,680 use it for leverage? Where do you see this heading 647 00:33:45,680 --> 00:33:48,680 next? First of all, I, I agree with 648 00:33:48,680 --> 00:33:52,400 you in general that again, there's some murkiness on on the 649 00:33:52,400 --> 00:33:55,000 legality of all of this. And I'm not an international 650 00:33:55,000 --> 00:33:58,480 lawyer to be able to say exactly whether what they're doing is as 651 00:33:58,480 --> 00:34:00,760 permissible or not. There's some arguments in favor 652 00:34:00,760 --> 00:34:03,520 of it, plenty of arguments against, but we should also 653 00:34:03,520 --> 00:34:06,360 remember that we're now in a context in which international 654 00:34:06,360 --> 00:34:09,360 law is increasingly set aside, not just by the United States, 655 00:34:09,480 --> 00:34:12,440 but by Europe as well. The German Chancellor said that 656 00:34:12,440 --> 00:34:15,199 the international law apparently does not apply to Iran. 657 00:34:15,440 --> 00:34:18,400 Well, if it doesn't apply to Iran in the case of war, then it 658 00:34:18,400 --> 00:34:21,080 also doesn't apply to Iran when the Iranians are taking control 659 00:34:21,080 --> 00:34:23,000 of the Strait of Hormuz. So we have to kind of choose 660 00:34:23,159 --> 00:34:26,280 which one it is that we want. And I think Europe's performance 661 00:34:26,280 --> 00:34:29,199 here is really problematic and counterproductive to Europe's 662 00:34:29,199 --> 00:34:32,440 own long term interest. Europe has traditionally been in 663 00:34:32,440 --> 00:34:36,080 one of the strongest supporters of international law and seeing 664 00:34:36,080 --> 00:34:38,719 that being eroded as it has in the last couple of years is 665 00:34:38,719 --> 00:34:41,040 devastating for global security overall. 666 00:34:41,040 --> 00:34:43,679 So just as part of the context, I think that's very important to 667 00:34:43,679 --> 00:34:46,000 understand. Just on that, just on that, what 668 00:34:46,000 --> 00:34:49,239 are your, because, because Europe, I mean, obviously there 669 00:34:49,239 --> 00:34:51,120 have been comments here supporting what the United 670 00:34:51,120 --> 00:34:53,960 States is doing, but Europe overall has obviously not joined 671 00:34:53,960 --> 00:34:57,600 this in an offensive nature or certainly not the UK. 672 00:34:57,800 --> 00:35:00,440 Do you? And the argument our Prime 673 00:35:00,440 --> 00:35:04,240 Minister would make would be partly because they don't 674 00:35:04,240 --> 00:35:07,520 believe in things that, you know, don't pass international 675 00:35:07,520 --> 00:35:09,960 legal standards, but you just don't see it like that. 676 00:35:09,960 --> 00:35:11,280 What? What are the kind of most 677 00:35:11,280 --> 00:35:15,360 egregious examples of Europe standing against international 678 00:35:15,360 --> 00:35:18,240 law, in your opinion? Well, in this specific context, 679 00:35:18,240 --> 00:35:22,160 I think we should also compare it to what Europe did in 2003. 680 00:35:22,160 --> 00:35:25,040 Of course, not the UK at that time, but rest of Europe who 681 00:35:25,040 --> 00:35:29,000 firmly stood against the illegal invasion of Iraq, forced the 682 00:35:29,000 --> 00:35:32,640 matter to the Security Council, paid the price for it, but were 683 00:35:32,640 --> 00:35:37,600 proven absolutely right with the position that they've taken that 684 00:35:37,600 --> 00:35:40,600 Europe is only seen today in essentially Spain or one or two 685 00:35:40,600 --> 00:35:43,520 more countries. So yes, the UK did not join in. 686 00:35:43,520 --> 00:35:46,240 It did reference international law, but it's not at all the 687 00:35:46,240 --> 00:35:49,840 same level of opposition that we saw from the rest of Europe back 688 00:35:49,840 --> 00:35:51,880 in 2003. And I think this is partly 689 00:35:51,880 --> 00:35:55,160 because of the fact that Europe as a whole, unfortunately, has 690 00:35:55,160 --> 00:35:58,120 chosen to become more and more dependent on the United States 691 00:35:58,120 --> 00:36:01,680 and which its manoeuvrability in these situations is much more 692 00:36:01,680 --> 00:36:04,360 limited than what it was before. And again, it's ultimately bad 693 00:36:04,360 --> 00:36:06,280 for Europe. It's bad for global stability. 694 00:36:06,280 --> 00:36:09,000 And from my perspective, it's bad for the United States. the 695 00:36:09,000 --> 00:36:12,280 United States needs a strong European ally that every once in 696 00:36:12,280 --> 00:36:14,720 a while can tell us that's not a good idea. 697 00:36:14,720 --> 00:36:17,120 Perhaps you shouldn't do that because we tend to have a lot of 698 00:36:17,120 --> 00:36:19,120 bad ideas over here. And as of late, it's been more 699 00:36:19,120 --> 00:36:21,280 and more of those. So we need a Europe that can 700 00:36:21,280 --> 00:36:22,680 actually be that type of a friend. 701 00:36:22,680 --> 00:36:25,640 But a Europe that's so dependent on the United States has lost 702 00:36:25,640 --> 00:36:28,480 its ability to stand up and tell us when we're about to do 703 00:36:28,480 --> 00:36:30,120 something that is not in our own interest. 704 00:36:30,920 --> 00:36:33,720 Well, Freddy Mertz, the chancellor, Germany did sort of 705 00:36:33,720 --> 00:36:36,840 stand up in front of school kids and is now paying the price in 706 00:36:36,920 --> 00:36:39,080 in lots of ways that I'm sure he hadn't imagined. 707 00:36:39,080 --> 00:36:42,520 And he's getting a lot of Flack for it domestically from in from 708 00:36:42,520 --> 00:36:45,680 German politicians, including in his own party, when he probably 709 00:36:45,680 --> 00:36:48,920 made those points in order to score political points with with 710 00:36:48,920 --> 00:36:50,920 a home crowd. It's it's highly problematic 711 00:36:50,920 --> 00:36:55,360 from MERS to 1st support the war, say that Israel is doing 712 00:36:55,600 --> 00:36:59,560 Europe's dirty work for it, say that the international law does 713 00:36:59,560 --> 00:37:02,960 not apply to Iran. And then when the war goes 714 00:37:02,960 --> 00:37:07,880 badly, put the responsibility at the feet of Trump as if Germany 715 00:37:07,880 --> 00:37:10,360 itself did not play a role in helping facilitate this. 716 00:37:10,360 --> 00:37:12,840 Remember, he was in the Oval Office during the first couple 717 00:37:12,840 --> 00:37:14,520 of days of the war and just nodding along. 718 00:37:14,880 --> 00:37:17,480 So, you know, and he got. Complimented by Trump, who said 719 00:37:17,480 --> 00:37:19,440 I like you much more than Keir Starmer, more or less. 720 00:37:20,360 --> 00:37:21,280 Exactly. Exactly. 721 00:37:21,280 --> 00:37:24,120 So, you know, is it good for Germany to stand up? 722 00:37:24,160 --> 00:37:27,120 Yes, but not in this manner. Not first supporting it and then 723 00:37:27,120 --> 00:37:29,040 pretending as if he has no responsibility. 724 00:37:29,160 --> 00:37:31,360 But guess what? It's the German car lobby, you 725 00:37:31,360 --> 00:37:34,480 know, the, the petrol heads that run the German economy who said 726 00:37:34,480 --> 00:37:36,240 to him, what on earth are you doing? 727 00:37:36,280 --> 00:37:40,520 You know, you can't possibly be critical of Trump because if 728 00:37:40,520 --> 00:37:42,680 this thing goes on and on and on and we have to pay the price, 729 00:37:42,800 --> 00:37:46,760 which they did with 25% tariffs on EU cars, which is primarily 730 00:37:46,760 --> 00:37:50,200 aimed at Germany, then, you know, he loses out big time. 731 00:37:50,440 --> 00:37:52,960 And he's not exactly riding high in the the popularity stakes. 732 00:37:53,240 --> 00:37:55,440 I just want to move on from Germany to China briefly. 733 00:37:55,440 --> 00:37:58,280 I mean, the Chinese, at the beginning of all this war, we 734 00:37:58,280 --> 00:38:00,440 thought the Chinese would be in a vulnerable position because of 735 00:38:00,440 --> 00:38:03,200 the amount of energy they import through the Strait of Hormuz. 736 00:38:03,200 --> 00:38:06,600 But actually partly because of their reserves and other things, 737 00:38:07,040 --> 00:38:09,040 they've been playing quite a smart game. 738 00:38:09,280 --> 00:38:11,800 The Iranian foreign minister is there this week. 739 00:38:11,800 --> 00:38:14,160 And guess who's going next week? Donald J Trump. 740 00:38:14,800 --> 00:38:16,360 Yeah, I would watch this space A lot. 741 00:38:16,360 --> 00:38:18,200 I do. I do think that the Chinese have 742 00:38:18,200 --> 00:38:21,680 played a role in this war that goes beyond what we have been 743 00:38:21,680 --> 00:38:25,520 able to detect and that they have, without having their 744 00:38:25,520 --> 00:38:28,960 fingerprints on it, without them necessarily being offensively 745 00:38:28,960 --> 00:38:32,840 active in this war, have nevertheless contributed to it 746 00:38:32,840 --> 00:38:34,360 in manners. And there's a coordination 747 00:38:34,360 --> 00:38:37,120 between the Iranians and the Chinese that obviously is very 748 00:38:37,120 --> 00:38:39,200 important. Again, it is no coincidence that 749 00:38:39,200 --> 00:38:42,720 the Iranian foreign minister is there right before the summit. 750 00:38:43,800 --> 00:38:47,000 If it goes forward, as you know, it was already delayed once as a 751 00:38:47,000 --> 00:38:50,200 result of this war. It will be embarrassing for 752 00:38:50,200 --> 00:38:53,480 Trump to show up in Beijing still having to deal with this 753 00:38:53,480 --> 00:38:58,520 war, still having not succeeded in putting an end to it. 754 00:38:58,880 --> 00:39:00,360 More embarrassing than cancelling it. 755 00:39:00,400 --> 00:39:02,240 I mean, cancelling it would be even worse, wouldn't it? 756 00:39:02,240 --> 00:39:04,400 Surely. It certainly would be. 757 00:39:04,400 --> 00:39:06,640 I'm not saying that he has any good options, which is precisely 758 00:39:06,640 --> 00:39:08,640 why he shouldn't have started this war in the 1st place. 759 00:39:08,640 --> 00:39:10,800 It tends to create these situations in which you just 760 00:39:10,800 --> 00:39:13,600 have to choose between bad options, and when it comes to 761 00:39:13,600 --> 00:39:15,040 China, that is the case for the US. 762 00:39:15,040 --> 00:39:17,280 When it comes to the war itself, it's the case. 763 00:39:17,440 --> 00:39:19,440 Thank you very, very much for your time. 764 00:39:19,440 --> 00:39:21,120 We really appreciate having you on. 765 00:39:21,520 --> 00:39:23,760 Thank you so much for having. I really, really appreciate it. 766 00:39:25,640 --> 00:39:30,080 That was Trita Parsi. Very interesting take on all of 767 00:39:30,080 --> 00:39:32,400 this. In particular, the idea that had 768 00:39:32,400 --> 00:39:36,120 the Obama deal remained in place, perhaps the opposition 769 00:39:36,120 --> 00:39:39,280 within Iran would have got stronger over the years. 770 00:39:39,800 --> 00:39:42,960 Next week, Matt, I think we'll be talking about China, won't 771 00:39:42,960 --> 00:39:43,800 we? Yes, indeed. 772 00:39:43,800 --> 00:39:47,120 I mean, I think all eyes will be on China even here, you know, on 773 00:39:47,120 --> 00:39:48,800 the island. They'll be on the election 774 00:39:48,800 --> 00:39:52,840 results significant for everyone on the upside and the downside. 775 00:39:53,080 --> 00:39:56,800 But I'm the big geopolitical moment arguably of the whole 776 00:39:56,800 --> 00:40:00,160 Trump second Trump administration so far will be 777 00:40:00,160 --> 00:40:02,440 this meeting between Xi Jinping and Donald Trump. 778 00:40:02,680 --> 00:40:05,120 What they will say to each other, how much of it we will 779 00:40:05,120 --> 00:40:08,360 know about whether they come out, both of them feeling, 780 00:40:08,400 --> 00:40:12,400 feeling like winners, even if any one of them is. 781 00:40:12,920 --> 00:40:15,360 That's it from Trump World for me in London. 782 00:40:16,040 --> 00:40:18,920 And from me in Washington, DC, see you next week. 783 00:40:19,200 --> 00:40:19,760 See you next week.