1 00:00:00,040 --> 00:00:01,400 There are two things that Donald Trump hates. 2 00:00:01,400 --> 00:00:03,800 One is to be made to feel stupid, and the second one, 3 00:00:03,800 --> 00:00:07,400 which he hates even more, is not to be cut in on a good deal, 4 00:00:07,480 --> 00:00:09,080 right? So that's what he's doing when 5 00:00:09,080 --> 00:00:12,160 he's going around the world cutting good deals for America, 6 00:00:12,160 --> 00:00:16,520 but also, one assumes, when he can above board for himself. 7 00:00:18,320 --> 00:00:20,560 Hello and welcome to this week's edition of Trump WORLD. 8 00:00:20,600 --> 00:00:23,440 I'm Matt Fry in London. And I'm Anushka Astana in 9 00:00:23,440 --> 00:00:27,960 Washington, DC Donald Trump is in neither of our locations this 10 00:00:27,960 --> 00:00:30,160 week. He is on a tour of Asia. 11 00:00:30,320 --> 00:00:33,960 He has been to Malaysia. He has been to Japan. 12 00:00:33,960 --> 00:00:37,760 And now, now South Korea, where tomorrow we're going to have a 13 00:00:37,760 --> 00:00:42,760 big meeting between him and President Xi Jinping, and we'll 14 00:00:42,760 --> 00:00:45,000 talk about that trade deal a lot. 15 00:00:45,200 --> 00:00:47,320 But in the meantime, there's plenty of else going on, isn't 16 00:00:47,320 --> 00:00:48,280 there? You bet there is. 17 00:00:48,280 --> 00:00:52,400 So there was an extraordinary interview given by Steve Bannon 18 00:00:53,120 --> 00:00:56,000 this week to The Economist. And Steve Bannon, as you know, 19 00:00:56,400 --> 00:00:59,920 was, of course, Trump's chief strategist in the first Trump 20 00:00:59,920 --> 00:01:01,520 administration. He didn't last very long. 21 00:01:02,000 --> 00:01:04,840 He was sacked after, I think, six months or so. 22 00:01:05,440 --> 00:01:07,680 And I've got a little story about that because I met him in 23 00:01:07,680 --> 00:01:12,000 a hotel, in his hotel room in Rome and we spent two hours 24 00:01:12,000 --> 00:01:13,800 talking to each other. And I'll tell you about that in 25 00:01:13,800 --> 00:01:15,480 a minute because that was quite an interesting insight. 26 00:01:15,720 --> 00:01:17,680 But anyway, the reason why we're talking about him now is that he 27 00:01:17,680 --> 00:01:20,760 gave an interview to the editor of the Economist and the deputy 28 00:01:20,760 --> 00:01:23,320 editor. And he said lots of incredibly 29 00:01:23,320 --> 00:01:24,680 abrasive things in that interview. 30 00:01:25,000 --> 00:01:27,280 And they were quite taken aback. And they all, it was all soft 31 00:01:27,360 --> 00:01:31,480 furnishings, fluffy sofas. And Bannon was on, on true 32 00:01:31,480 --> 00:01:35,200 Bannon revolutionary form, the Rob Speer of the MAGA movement 33 00:01:35,560 --> 00:01:38,560 ready to chop their heads off. And they, I, I, you know, they 34 00:01:38,560 --> 00:01:39,680 dealt with it quite well, I thought. 35 00:01:40,120 --> 00:01:42,520 But the thing that made the headlines was his comment that 36 00:01:42,720 --> 00:01:45,960 he thinks Trump should serve, will serve, actually will serve 37 00:01:46,240 --> 00:01:49,640 or should serve a third term in office. 38 00:01:50,200 --> 00:01:51,680 What did you make of all that, Enochko? 39 00:01:52,160 --> 00:01:54,840 Well, I think my general mantra with this second Trump 40 00:01:54,840 --> 00:01:59,040 presidency is to take it much more seriously, as in to take 41 00:01:59,040 --> 00:02:01,960 what he says more seriously, I feel Trump says. 42 00:02:02,040 --> 00:02:03,360 What Bannon says. Or both. 43 00:02:03,960 --> 00:02:07,560 Well, let's let's get to that because he Baron said it and 44 00:02:07,560 --> 00:02:11,480 Trump has hinted at it plenty of times as well as occasionally 45 00:02:11,480 --> 00:02:14,720 denying it. But even on this trip in Asia, 46 00:02:15,040 --> 00:02:18,160 Donald Trump when asked about it, didn't shy away from it, was 47 00:02:18,160 --> 00:02:20,880 hinting that maybe he would consider a third run. 48 00:02:20,880 --> 00:02:23,760 The only thing I think he has ruled out is the idea that he 49 00:02:23,760 --> 00:02:28,440 would run as vice president to JD Vance in order to find a way 50 00:02:28,440 --> 00:02:30,720 through the back door in he said, you know, I don't think 51 00:02:30,720 --> 00:02:34,000 voters would like that. He has said before, I don't, I 52 00:02:34,000 --> 00:02:38,480 don't think it is, you know, allowed to do it. 53 00:02:38,480 --> 00:02:42,240 But he's made clear repeatedly that he might look at ways to do 54 00:02:42,240 --> 00:02:43,680 it. Now, Steve Bannon is talking 55 00:02:43,680 --> 00:02:48,320 about the idea of a secret plan that they want to put in place 56 00:02:48,320 --> 00:02:49,960 and has said, look, just get used to it. 57 00:02:49,960 --> 00:02:53,240 Basically, Donald Trump is going to be president again. 58 00:02:53,240 --> 00:02:57,840 This would, of course, break, I think, the 22nd Amendment, which 59 00:02:58,200 --> 00:03:00,720 most people think is not something that they should be 60 00:03:00,880 --> 00:03:02,200 messing with. But it feels like they're 61 00:03:02,200 --> 00:03:04,760 messing with plenty of the Constitution beyond this, 62 00:03:04,760 --> 00:03:08,160 including around free speech and how they deal with free speech. 63 00:03:08,160 --> 00:03:11,040 So why wouldn't they consider this? 64 00:03:11,040 --> 00:03:14,120 I mean, there is an age issue here as well as a huge 65 00:03:14,120 --> 00:03:16,720 constitutional issue. If he were to run for a third 66 00:03:16,720 --> 00:03:21,080 term, he'd be 86 by the time he completed that third run. 67 00:03:21,080 --> 00:03:24,880 But I, I, I don't see any reason why not to believe that Donald 68 00:03:24,880 --> 00:03:27,080 Trump is interested in it and is looking for a way. 69 00:03:27,320 --> 00:03:29,920 And you know, when you talk about secret plans, you know, 70 00:03:29,920 --> 00:03:32,040 one thing I've been thinking about a lot this week and I'm 71 00:03:32,040 --> 00:03:34,880 sure in future episodes we'll talk about it, is so-called 72 00:03:34,880 --> 00:03:39,840 Project 2025, a 900 page blueprint for office that Donald 73 00:03:39,840 --> 00:03:42,160 Trump once claimed he'd never heard of. 74 00:03:42,440 --> 00:03:46,000 He then put its architects into senior positions in the White 75 00:03:46,000 --> 00:03:47,400 House. And now he talks much more 76 00:03:47,400 --> 00:03:50,080 proudly of it. Why shouldn't we believe both 77 00:03:50,080 --> 00:03:52,360 Steve Bannon and Donald Trump that they're at least 78 00:03:52,360 --> 00:03:54,480 considering this? I agree with all that. 79 00:03:54,960 --> 00:03:57,080 Just a few little bit of context. 80 00:03:57,080 --> 00:04:01,360 I mean, the, the idea that you run for a third term Once Upon a 81 00:04:01,360 --> 00:04:03,760 time, you know, during the Second World War was completely 82 00:04:03,760 --> 00:04:06,600 normal. FDR ran 4 consecutive terms in 83 00:04:06,600 --> 00:04:08,440 office. And then after that, it was 84 00:04:08,440 --> 00:04:11,880 thought that this would be too much and it would turn, you 85 00:04:11,880 --> 00:04:14,120 know, make America look a little bit too much like a kind of 86 00:04:14,120 --> 00:04:17,079 dictatorship, which you could argue is what Trump wants. 87 00:04:17,519 --> 00:04:20,160 What worries me about Steve Bannon in that particular 88 00:04:20,160 --> 00:04:23,960 interview and having met the guy twice, is that he is a Yeah, I. 89 00:04:24,080 --> 00:04:25,960 Want to hear about your two hour meeting? 90 00:04:25,960 --> 00:04:27,360 OK, but it was, it was an interesting meeting. 91 00:04:27,360 --> 00:04:28,840 Let me just tell you about that briefly then. 92 00:04:28,840 --> 00:04:31,920 So Steve Bannon had been sacked and he'd more or less 93 00:04:31,920 --> 00:04:33,880 disappeared into a witness protection programme. 94 00:04:33,880 --> 00:04:35,240 No one knew where the hell he was. 95 00:04:35,680 --> 00:04:39,800 And I happened to be in Rome for the Italian elections. 96 00:04:39,800 --> 00:04:42,880 I think this was 2018, if I'm not mistaken. 97 00:04:43,280 --> 00:04:45,440 It was March, it was rainy, it was miserable. 98 00:04:46,000 --> 00:04:48,920 And there was a picture of Steve Bannon and literally no one had 99 00:04:48,920 --> 00:04:52,160 seen her in public, sort of by Plaza Novona in the centre of 100 00:04:52,160 --> 00:04:55,120 Rome. And I thought, ah, OK, the guy's 101 00:04:55,120 --> 00:04:57,280 in town. He's not giving interviews. 102 00:04:57,280 --> 00:05:00,040 He's kept a low profile. I bet you he's staying at the 103 00:05:00,040 --> 00:05:04,400 Raphael Hotel, which is a sort of Ivy clad boutique hotel next 104 00:05:04,400 --> 00:05:07,000 to Piazza Navona. Anyway, I walk into the hotel 105 00:05:07,000 --> 00:05:09,720 lobby and I say I'd like to see my old friend Steve Bannon at 106 00:05:09,720 --> 00:05:11,000 that stage. I've never met the guy. 107 00:05:11,320 --> 00:05:13,920 And the woman says that's room 518. 108 00:05:14,480 --> 00:05:17,760 Bingo, right. And then at that moment, these 109 00:05:17,760 --> 00:05:19,920 two heavies get up in the in the in the lobby. 110 00:05:19,920 --> 00:05:22,560 They were clearly his bodyguards and said, why are you here to 111 00:05:22,560 --> 00:05:24,600 see Steve? I've also written this book on 112 00:05:24,600 --> 00:05:28,000 Italy and I'm sure he's here for the Italian elections and I'd 113 00:05:28,000 --> 00:05:29,560 and I'd love to talk to him about those. 114 00:05:29,920 --> 00:05:31,680 Anyway, I waited in the lobby for 10 minutes. 115 00:05:31,680 --> 00:05:36,560 I was then summoned up to his room and he opened the door. 116 00:05:36,560 --> 00:05:39,240 It was dark inside. And he he held out the phone, 117 00:05:39,480 --> 00:05:42,640 which had the Amazon order number of my book on Italy, 118 00:05:42,800 --> 00:05:44,680 Italy, the unfinished Revolution on it. 119 00:05:44,680 --> 00:05:47,280 And I promise you, Anouska, I didn't think anyone had ordered 120 00:05:47,280 --> 00:05:49,800 that book in a decade, right? But he ordered it. 121 00:05:49,800 --> 00:05:52,520 He found it, which is a very flattering thing to do. 122 00:05:52,920 --> 00:05:56,800 And then he invited me in. And he was such a notorious 123 00:05:56,800 --> 00:05:59,880 character at the time, even more so than now because he was 124 00:05:59,880 --> 00:06:03,040 essentially, you know, Trump's brain running this first Trump 125 00:06:03,040 --> 00:06:05,760 administration. And it was a sweet. 126 00:06:06,160 --> 00:06:09,280 And there was a bottle of wine that had not been opened, 127 00:06:09,480 --> 00:06:12,600 although there's always something vaguely unsober about 128 00:06:12,600 --> 00:06:14,560 the way he appears. He hadn't touched a drop of 129 00:06:14,560 --> 00:06:16,280 alcohol. And I didn't drink either. 130 00:06:16,280 --> 00:06:19,520 And then we spent two hours without cameras talking. 131 00:06:20,040 --> 00:06:21,960 And the. So it's it's worth, you know, 132 00:06:21,960 --> 00:06:24,840 giving you the build up to then describe what happened, which is 133 00:06:24,840 --> 00:06:29,400 that he offloaded about Donald Trump and Jared Kushner and 134 00:06:29,400 --> 00:06:34,600 Ivanka and Melania with a degree of rudeness that would make the 135 00:06:34,600 --> 00:06:39,640 most, you know, effervescent episodes of in the thick of it 136 00:06:39,640 --> 00:06:43,160 look tame by comparison. I mean it he was dropping F 137 00:06:43,160 --> 00:06:44,560 bombs like there was no tomorrow. 138 00:06:45,240 --> 00:06:49,120 And he basically said Trump is more or less, you know, he 139 00:06:49,120 --> 00:06:50,680 wasn't very complimentary about him. 140 00:06:50,960 --> 00:06:52,240 It's off. It was off the record. 141 00:06:52,240 --> 00:06:54,120 So I can't, I'm not going to quote you for him, but the 142 00:06:54,120 --> 00:06:58,120 general mood of it was this guy, you know, is not as smart as he 143 00:06:58,120 --> 00:07:00,000 thinks he is, but I'm really, really smart. 144 00:07:00,920 --> 00:07:02,800 And what? But what did also come across, 145 00:07:02,800 --> 00:07:05,920 and this is what came across in the Economist interview, is that 146 00:07:06,880 --> 00:07:10,800 Bannon is a real revolutionary. He really genuinely believes 147 00:07:11,160 --> 00:07:14,080 that America is fighting a revolution to what he calls 148 00:07:14,080 --> 00:07:17,200 getting back to genuine capitalism, away from 149 00:07:17,200 --> 00:07:20,960 corporatism in favour of the little guy or the average guy 150 00:07:20,960 --> 00:07:22,680 who's been screwed by the big companies. 151 00:07:23,080 --> 00:07:26,240 And of course, Bernie Sanders would, you know, heartily agree 152 00:07:26,240 --> 00:07:29,080 with him on that one. So would Zoran Mandami, the guy 153 00:07:29,080 --> 00:07:31,400 who's going to be the next mayor of New York, most likely. 154 00:07:31,680 --> 00:07:35,440 AOC probably as well. He's a true revolutionary. 155 00:07:35,440 --> 00:07:38,560 Trump running for a third term is is kind of the least of his 156 00:07:38,560 --> 00:07:40,080 points. Of course he'd run for a third 157 00:07:40,080 --> 00:07:42,760 term because it's a revolution that has to be completed and he 158 00:07:42,760 --> 00:07:45,360 won't be able to get it done in the next three years. 159 00:07:45,720 --> 00:07:48,800 So it's more what worries me more actually than the third 160 00:07:48,800 --> 00:07:52,960 term idea that Bannon put out there is the revolutionary zeal 161 00:07:53,240 --> 00:07:57,880 in this idea that America is at war with itself, that this is a 162 00:07:57,880 --> 00:08:00,240 war against the so-called liberal woke elite. 163 00:08:00,240 --> 00:08:02,680 Caller what you like. I mean, I think Bannon honestly, 164 00:08:02,680 --> 00:08:05,760 I think is quite happy to see this come to blows, to see 165 00:08:05,760 --> 00:08:10,200 another kind of civil war in America for his vision to 166 00:08:10,200 --> 00:08:11,840 prevail. And that is deeply alarming. 167 00:08:12,720 --> 00:08:15,120 I mean, as you know, Anushka, with Trump always having to 168 00:08:15,120 --> 00:08:18,120 balance the stuff that he does on the global stage with the 169 00:08:18,120 --> 00:08:21,520 stuff that he does at home. And the Bannon interview is very 170 00:08:21,520 --> 00:08:24,200 much in the latter category. And I do think we have to look 171 00:08:24,200 --> 00:08:27,280 at the first nine months of the Trump administration, let alone 172 00:08:27,280 --> 00:08:29,800 the next three years, and what might happen afterwards as a 173 00:08:29,800 --> 00:08:33,600 kind of revolutionary approach to American governance. 174 00:08:33,600 --> 00:08:36,840 You know, challenging, possibly tearing up the Constitution, 175 00:08:37,159 --> 00:08:41,280 taking on the big institutions of the American state, whether 176 00:08:41,280 --> 00:08:44,120 it's the federal government or elite universities like Harvard. 177 00:08:44,400 --> 00:08:46,040 I mean, Trump's got a lot of fighting him. 178 00:08:46,280 --> 00:08:49,120 It was all announced in Project 2025. 179 00:08:49,120 --> 00:08:51,920 And that old cliche in the first administration, you've got to 180 00:08:51,920 --> 00:08:55,040 take him seriously but not literally is nonsense. 181 00:08:55,040 --> 00:08:57,880 You've got to take him seriously and literally. 182 00:08:58,720 --> 00:09:01,480 And of course, that is what foreign leaders are learning as 183 00:09:01,480 --> 00:09:03,600 well. They're they're on a learning 184 00:09:03,600 --> 00:09:04,880 curve how to deal with Donald Trump. 185 00:09:04,880 --> 00:09:08,160 And this week it was the turn of Asia and starting off for 186 00:09:08,160 --> 00:09:10,680 Southeast Asia and Oshka. Yeah, What I find really 187 00:09:10,680 --> 00:09:14,120 interesting is to watch the way foreign leaders are fawning to 188 00:09:14,120 --> 00:09:19,600 Trump because they really genuinely think he can have an 189 00:09:19,600 --> 00:09:22,840 influence on, you know, conflicts around the world. 190 00:09:22,880 --> 00:09:25,800 And I I think that is genuine. I think they believe that he can 191 00:09:25,800 --> 00:09:27,400 have. And we've seen that this week. 192 00:09:27,400 --> 00:09:31,840 In fact, in Malaysia, he was there overseeing a signing of an 193 00:09:31,840 --> 00:09:34,360 agreement between Thailand and Cambodia. 194 00:09:35,560 --> 00:09:38,600 He called it a peace deal. I noticed that the Thai foreign 195 00:09:38,600 --> 00:09:41,800 minister afterwards, when asked, is this a peace deal, wouldn't 196 00:09:41,800 --> 00:09:44,280 actually go there. But he did talk about a pathway 197 00:09:44,600 --> 00:09:46,400 to peace. We had a situation in which the 198 00:09:46,720 --> 00:09:51,000 Cambodian PM said publicly, I want to nominate you for a Nobel 199 00:09:51,000 --> 00:09:54,680 Peace, Peace Prize. And we're told actually by the 200 00:09:54,680 --> 00:09:57,960 White House press secretary Caroline Levitt, that Prime 201 00:09:57,960 --> 00:10:02,880 Minister Taikachi, the new Prime Minister in Japan, has also told 202 00:10:02,880 --> 00:10:06,600 Donald Trump that she too will nominate him for a Nobel Peace 203 00:10:06,600 --> 00:10:08,400 Prize. Although Japan, and I think they 204 00:10:08,400 --> 00:10:10,320 have history on this because I think they actually nominated 205 00:10:10,320 --> 00:10:13,800 him back in 2019, they never say publicly because they believe 206 00:10:13,800 --> 00:10:16,440 the Nobel Peace Prize process says you shouldn't do that. 207 00:10:17,160 --> 00:10:20,400 And as you say, at the same time, you know, and there's 208 00:10:20,400 --> 00:10:23,000 genuine actually, I should mention Sudan as well, you know, 209 00:10:23,000 --> 00:10:26,560 talking to people in the region over this week, they were saying 210 00:10:26,560 --> 00:10:30,280 to me, every person involved in peacekeeping on the ground wants 211 00:10:30,280 --> 00:10:33,920 to get the ear of Donald Trump. They believe genuinely that his 212 00:10:33,920 --> 00:10:37,760 influence can make a difference because it actually brings both 213 00:10:37,760 --> 00:10:41,240 sides to the table in a way that perhaps previous people had not 214 00:10:41,240 --> 00:10:44,640 done, including actually Biden when it comes to Sudan. 215 00:10:45,080 --> 00:10:48,160 But at the same time as they are fawning to him all over the 216 00:10:48,160 --> 00:10:50,800 world, really falling over for themselves because they know 217 00:10:50,800 --> 00:10:52,400 that that's one of the things he likes. 218 00:10:52,640 --> 00:10:56,640 As you say, there's sort of extraordinary things happening 219 00:10:56,640 --> 00:10:58,880 in the US. And, you know, I was actually 220 00:10:58,880 --> 00:11:03,520 talking to someone really, really senior diplomatically in 221 00:11:03,520 --> 00:11:07,240 a European country this week who was who was asking the question 222 00:11:07,240 --> 00:11:09,280 genuinely. I wonder how history will judge 223 00:11:09,280 --> 00:11:12,840 us for the way that we've decided to go down this path, 224 00:11:12,920 --> 00:11:15,320 for the way that we've decided to suck up to him. 225 00:11:15,320 --> 00:11:17,840 Because at the same time, how will history judge what is 226 00:11:17,840 --> 00:11:21,320 happening here on the ground in the US and how far is he 227 00:11:21,320 --> 00:11:24,840 prepared to go with that blueprint for power that we've 228 00:11:24,840 --> 00:11:27,440 talked about now? Now, the question I also have is 229 00:11:27,440 --> 00:11:30,960 how much are the people in the US focused on what he's doing 230 00:11:30,960 --> 00:11:34,480 abroad, You know, even on the Israel Gaza deal, which of 231 00:11:34,480 --> 00:11:38,360 course got huge headlines here. I do wonder when you're watching 232 00:11:38,360 --> 00:11:41,960 quite a lot of the news channels here, it wasn't the same level 233 00:11:42,320 --> 00:11:44,160 of emphasis. I don't think that you perhaps 234 00:11:44,160 --> 00:11:47,720 get in some parts of the world. The focus has still been more 235 00:11:47,720 --> 00:11:51,520 heavily on what's happening here in the US on the shutdown, on, 236 00:11:51,760 --> 00:11:55,200 you know, questions again today over President Biden's fitness 237 00:11:55,800 --> 00:11:59,040 in terms of his health. You know, I noticed that was 238 00:11:59,040 --> 00:12:02,160 leading Fox News this morning, not, you know, whatever he is 239 00:12:02,160 --> 00:12:06,040 signing in Asia right now. That's not to say that it 240 00:12:06,040 --> 00:12:09,920 doesn't cut through at all, but I just think, you know, how is 241 00:12:09,920 --> 00:12:12,040 he playing this? It's like this completely 242 00:12:12,040 --> 00:12:17,360 different character, Jekyll and Hyde, home and abroad, and what 243 00:12:17,360 --> 00:12:19,920 do the Americans? It is all about the exercise of 244 00:12:19,920 --> 00:12:22,840 Trump's power in different ways. So if you just look at the last 245 00:12:22,840 --> 00:12:27,120 week, you know, Trump power comes in different shapes and 246 00:12:27,120 --> 00:12:28,840 sizes. It's packaged in different ways. 247 00:12:28,840 --> 00:12:33,760 So the most obvious recipient of Trump's, you know, generosity 248 00:12:33,760 --> 00:12:36,960 was one Javier Miley, the president of Argentina, who was 249 00:12:36,960 --> 00:12:40,880 going to lose a midterm election and has now won that election. 250 00:12:40,880 --> 00:12:44,280 Rather, his party's won the election in a midterm election. 251 00:12:44,280 --> 00:12:48,040 But it was essential for him to win it in order to continue his 252 00:12:48,040 --> 00:12:51,840 revolutionary libertarian economic programme, a sort of 253 00:12:52,040 --> 00:12:54,640 condensation of what Musk was always all about, you know, cut 254 00:12:54,640 --> 00:13:00,160 down the federal government to the bone, then lower taxes, 255 00:13:00,160 --> 00:13:02,400 deregulate, deregulate, deregulate. 256 00:13:02,400 --> 00:13:05,080 And then the kind of animal instincts of capitalism will 257 00:13:05,080 --> 00:13:07,880 take over, which is why Miley always campaigned with a 258 00:13:07,880 --> 00:13:10,040 chainsaw. Well, you know, the Argentinians 259 00:13:10,040 --> 00:13:12,400 didn't really like it very much. There was a corruption scandal 260 00:13:12,400 --> 00:13:16,400 around his sister, who's also his chief of staff and his his 261 00:13:16,480 --> 00:13:20,800 sort of chief social media officer, who's the third most 262 00:13:21,160 --> 00:13:22,960 influential person in the whole country. 263 00:13:23,520 --> 00:13:24,920 They were embroiled in a scandal. 264 00:13:24,920 --> 00:13:27,560 The economy didn't do quite as well as Milay had promised. 265 00:13:27,680 --> 00:13:31,720 It all went basically South. And then Trump to save his 266 00:13:31,720 --> 00:13:33,560 friend. And he really regards Milay as a 267 00:13:33,560 --> 00:13:37,200 kind of fellow revolutionary, as does Bannon, by the way. 268 00:13:38,040 --> 00:13:40,880 Trump said, look, you know, I'm going to give you the first. 269 00:13:40,880 --> 00:13:43,680 It was 20 billion. Then it was $40 billion. 270 00:13:44,280 --> 00:13:48,120 You personally in Argentina to guarantee the state of the 271 00:13:48,120 --> 00:13:50,920 economy and to help your peso, your currency. 272 00:13:50,920 --> 00:13:55,120 But if you don't elect Milo's party, dear Argentinians, in 273 00:13:55,120 --> 00:13:57,120 this coming election, that money goes. 274 00:13:57,640 --> 00:13:59,240 Can you imagine? I was actually watching the 275 00:13:59,240 --> 00:14:02,760 polls when they originally made that offer and, and they did 276 00:14:02,760 --> 00:14:07,360 literally spike for Milo's party after America intervened. 277 00:14:07,560 --> 00:14:11,520 And, and watching, you know, Scott Besson, the Treasury 278 00:14:11,520 --> 00:14:15,000 Secretary, was also talking about that original $20 million 279 00:14:15,000 --> 00:14:18,480 when Miley visited the White House and was absolutely clear 280 00:14:18,480 --> 00:14:21,040 that basically we support your politics. 281 00:14:21,240 --> 00:14:24,880 We cannot let communists, as they were saying, get in. 282 00:14:25,080 --> 00:14:27,440 And we've seen a very different reaction to left wing 283 00:14:27,440 --> 00:14:31,280 governments in South America. So, so let's you know in terms 284 00:14:31,280 --> 00:14:33,880 of this Asia trip. I tell you, can I just add 1 285 00:14:33,880 --> 00:14:35,560 little thing? You, you mentioned that you know 286 00:14:35,560 --> 00:14:37,320 that everyone, everyone have you. 287 00:14:37,320 --> 00:14:40,280 By the way, have you nominated him yet for a Nobel Prize? 288 00:14:40,280 --> 00:14:43,680 Because I have, and I I don't know if you've actually done 289 00:14:43,680 --> 00:14:45,440 that. And don't, don't smile so 290 00:14:45,480 --> 00:14:46,880 insincerely. This. 291 00:14:46,880 --> 00:14:48,440 Is important. Show me that e-mail trail. 292 00:14:48,440 --> 00:14:50,800 You should. Nominate him for a prize. 293 00:14:51,040 --> 00:14:53,400 We could do it together. Trump, well, nominates Trump for 294 00:14:53,400 --> 00:14:55,880 a Nobel Peace Prize. But look, there must be someone, 295 00:14:55,880 --> 00:14:59,080 somewhere must have written a sort of checklist of all the 296 00:14:59,080 --> 00:15:01,480 things you need to do to avoid the worst treatment of Trump. 297 00:15:01,480 --> 00:15:03,880 So nominate him for that sodding prize. 298 00:15:04,640 --> 00:15:08,080 Then do what the Malaysian did Anwar Ibrahim in two interesting 299 00:15:08,080 --> 00:15:10,680 things. When Trump arrived in Malaysia, 300 00:15:10,920 --> 00:15:13,920 Anwar Ibrahim laid on the Malaysian Air Force as an 301 00:15:13,920 --> 00:15:15,840 escort. That is a really good idea, as 302 00:15:15,840 --> 00:15:18,520 long as Trump doesn't feel that those planes might collide or 303 00:15:18,720 --> 00:15:22,160 shoot him down. And then, rather daringly, he 304 00:15:22,160 --> 00:15:25,240 made a joke about Trump possibly going to jail. 305 00:15:25,240 --> 00:15:28,200 Which was really not in the it's not in the guidebook. 306 00:15:28,400 --> 00:15:30,160 He said, of course we have something in common. 307 00:15:30,160 --> 00:15:33,080 President Trump, I spent 10 years in jail and you almost 308 00:15:33,080 --> 00:15:35,720 went to jail last year. I'm not sure if Trump smiled at 309 00:15:35,720 --> 00:15:38,160 that stage or not. But the other thing to do is, 310 00:15:38,360 --> 00:15:41,080 and this is what the Japanese Prime Minister, the newly 311 00:15:41,080 --> 00:15:44,680 elected female Prime Minister of Japan, which who Trump hailed to 312 00:15:44,680 --> 00:15:47,400 the heavens. Did you increase defence 313 00:15:47,400 --> 00:15:52,240 spending in her case to 2% of GDP, which for for Japan, you 314 00:15:52,240 --> 00:15:56,160 know, a country post to Roshimi that is sort of built on the the 315 00:15:56,160 --> 00:15:57,880 doctrine of peace is a massive deal. 316 00:15:58,120 --> 00:16:00,840 And of course, guess who else raised defence spending before 317 00:16:00,840 --> 00:16:04,360 they first went to visit Donald J Trump in the White House won 318 00:16:04,360 --> 00:16:08,480 Keir Starmer raised it to whatever 2 1/2% and cut the aid 319 00:16:08,480 --> 00:16:11,200 budget. People are doing things in 320 00:16:11,200 --> 00:16:14,200 domestic policy that are contentious in order to suck up 321 00:16:14,200 --> 00:16:15,960 to him. You could well whether you would 322 00:16:15,960 --> 00:16:20,040 argue NATO countries raising defence spending as contentious 323 00:16:20,040 --> 00:16:21,760 or not. I think it's fairly popular as 324 00:16:21,760 --> 00:16:24,320 well among populations. But they're doing it. 325 00:16:24,320 --> 00:16:26,440 The timing of it is all to do with him. 326 00:16:26,560 --> 00:16:27,480 I mean, they were doing it anyway. 327 00:16:27,480 --> 00:16:31,480 Yeah, but they're doing it more. Yeah, and, and, and unwinding 328 00:16:31,480 --> 00:16:34,360 which bits of these are him having a positive impact on the 329 00:16:34,360 --> 00:16:37,040 world and which are him having a chilling impact on the world. 330 00:16:37,520 --> 00:16:38,960 You know, it's quite complicated. 331 00:16:39,120 --> 00:16:41,960 The NATO General Secretary General, Mark Rutter, was here 332 00:16:42,240 --> 00:16:46,440 last week and I managed to speak to him in the corridors. 333 00:16:46,440 --> 00:16:49,240 And he he was making the argument that it's only because 334 00:16:49,240 --> 00:16:52,760 of Trump that NATO are increasing those spending 335 00:16:53,240 --> 00:16:56,480 limits, but also saying it in a way because he knows that that's 336 00:16:56,480 --> 00:16:59,320 what Trump wants to hear. Interestingly though, in Japan, 337 00:16:59,840 --> 00:17:03,360 you know, lots of warm words, all the sycophancy we've seen 338 00:17:03,360 --> 00:17:07,720 elsewhere, the private promise of the nomination, but actually, 339 00:17:07,720 --> 00:17:11,119 actually not a trade deal, not a trade breakthrough. 340 00:17:11,119 --> 00:17:13,760 They have signed a memorandum of understanding. 341 00:17:14,079 --> 00:17:17,319 There's some things in there, but this doesn't go all the way 342 00:17:17,319 --> 00:17:18,280 does. It no, it doesn't. 343 00:17:18,400 --> 00:17:21,400 It doesn't go all the way. And but remember also Japan was 344 00:17:21,400 --> 00:17:25,200 slapped with 25% tariffs on Liberation Day. 345 00:17:25,200 --> 00:17:28,800 That was then commuted down to I think 15% tariffs. 346 00:17:29,360 --> 00:17:32,240 And but Japan, you know, Trump always has always really liked 347 00:17:32,240 --> 00:17:35,520 Japan. And he loved as much as Trump 348 00:17:35,520 --> 00:17:38,200 can love any foreign leader. He loved Shinzo Abe, the late 349 00:17:38,200 --> 00:17:41,720 Japanese leader, Prime Minister, who was mentored to the current 350 00:17:41,720 --> 00:17:44,240 new Japanese Prime Minister. He adored Abe. 351 00:17:44,640 --> 00:17:48,280 Abe was constantly over at Mar a Lago, not on official visits, 352 00:17:48,280 --> 00:17:51,640 but to play golf with Trump. They really hit it off with each 353 00:17:51,640 --> 00:17:53,800 other. And remember also that she 354 00:17:53,800 --> 00:17:56,680 rather like Abe himself, it's very conservative. 355 00:17:56,680 --> 00:17:59,920 You know, she styles herself as the Iron Lady of Japan. 356 00:18:00,200 --> 00:18:02,040 Her big model is Margaret Thatcher. 357 00:18:02,040 --> 00:18:05,320 She wears Blue Jackets and big pearls like Maggie did. 358 00:18:05,800 --> 00:18:08,280 And you know, of course, you know, Trump's got nice things, 359 00:18:08,280 --> 00:18:09,880 very nice things to say about Margaret Thatcher. 360 00:18:09,880 --> 00:18:12,560 So I think ideologically they are aligned. 361 00:18:13,000 --> 00:18:14,880 She has done the right thing on defence spending. 362 00:18:14,880 --> 00:18:19,080 She's also promised to spend, I think it's 100 billion U.S. 363 00:18:19,080 --> 00:18:22,640 dollars on American defence equipment, which is always, you 364 00:18:22,640 --> 00:18:25,240 know, another part of the kind of the Trump welcoming package. 365 00:18:25,520 --> 00:18:28,960 And crucially, and this was the kind of point of the Southeast 366 00:18:28,960 --> 00:18:32,120 Asian tour, what Trump is trying to do, having basically burned 367 00:18:32,120 --> 00:18:35,280 quite a few Asian bridges after Liberation Day, is trying to 368 00:18:35,280 --> 00:18:40,000 rebuild those bridges on his own terms so that he can re stitch 369 00:18:40,280 --> 00:18:42,520 what used to be quite ineffective, what they call the 370 00:18:42,520 --> 00:18:46,080 Alliance of Islands, the ring of islands around China. 371 00:18:46,080 --> 00:18:48,880 It's about containing China. And if you want to contain 372 00:18:48,880 --> 00:18:52,120 China, and we'll get to China in a minute, you've got to get on 373 00:18:52,240 --> 00:18:54,560 with the Japanese. You've got to get on with the 374 00:18:54,560 --> 00:18:56,680 South Koreans. And you've really got to get on 375 00:18:56,680 --> 00:19:00,080 with all those, you know, Southeast Asian factory nations 376 00:19:00,080 --> 00:19:03,000 that have been producing, you know, Nikes sneakers and various 377 00:19:03,000 --> 00:19:05,240 other things and selling them very cheaply to the US. 378 00:19:05,560 --> 00:19:08,880 And they're really in a bind because they don't they don't 379 00:19:08,880 --> 00:19:12,160 trust China because China is their regional behemoth. 380 00:19:12,440 --> 00:19:15,840 And they used to really trust the US after the Vietnam War, 381 00:19:16,080 --> 00:19:19,680 but let's not talk about that. They used to really trust the US 382 00:19:19,760 --> 00:19:22,320 And the US was buying all their stuff, and then suddenly the US 383 00:19:22,320 --> 00:19:25,240 turned against them. So Trump has a problem in that 384 00:19:25,240 --> 00:19:26,960 he's burning. He's been burning so many 385 00:19:26,960 --> 00:19:29,600 bridges, and he's now trying to rebuild them, but on 386 00:19:29,600 --> 00:19:32,440 transactional Trump terms. And I just wonder whether that 387 00:19:32,440 --> 00:19:36,480 kind of alliance will in the end, be enough to contain China 388 00:19:36,480 --> 00:19:40,080 because, of course, China makes a lot of the stuff in those 389 00:19:40,080 --> 00:19:43,240 countries in Southeast Asia. That's the circle. 390 00:19:43,240 --> 00:19:46,160 China plus one policy to get around American sanctions. 391 00:19:47,240 --> 00:19:50,240 So this, you know, But what Trump has realized at the very 392 00:19:50,240 --> 00:19:53,520 least, is that when it comes to, you know, the pulse of the world 393 00:19:53,520 --> 00:19:56,800 economy, it ain't in Europe, it's in Asia. 394 00:19:57,080 --> 00:19:58,840 Yeah. Let's talk about the meeting 395 00:19:58,840 --> 00:20:03,520 with XI just before we go into it in detail. 396 00:20:03,520 --> 00:20:05,760 I just think it is worth saying from what you've been saying 397 00:20:05,760 --> 00:20:09,000 there, and I think this every time I hear about Trump's 398 00:20:09,000 --> 00:20:11,800 relations with countries all over the world, you've always 399 00:20:12,160 --> 00:20:16,440 got to notice that the economic of interests of America, even in 400 00:20:16,440 --> 00:20:20,200 these peace agreements, is absolutely what that is going in 401 00:20:20,200 --> 00:20:22,520 for. Making a deal like even, you 402 00:20:22,520 --> 00:20:26,400 know, the conflicts which at the end have mining contracts that 403 00:20:26,400 --> 00:20:30,120 America is going to benefit from and so on, which is why those in 404 00:20:30,200 --> 00:20:32,560 parts of the world that don't have massive economic interests 405 00:20:32,560 --> 00:20:34,520 are concerned because they don't have it. 406 00:20:34,520 --> 00:20:39,920 Now, what China has in spades is things that America wants and 407 00:20:39,920 --> 00:20:43,040 that has been causing problems for Donald Trump as he's 408 00:20:43,440 --> 00:20:45,920 triggered the possibility of a trade war. 409 00:20:45,920 --> 00:20:49,600 Over the, you know, preceding months, he's talked about 100% 410 00:20:49,600 --> 00:20:53,160 tariffs on China. He's got a problem because China 411 00:20:53,160 --> 00:20:56,600 has stopped buying soya beans from American farmers, and that 412 00:20:56,600 --> 00:20:59,840 has caused a bit of a crisis here in the US And secondly, 413 00:21:00,240 --> 00:21:03,720 China has almost all of the world's rare earth minerals, 414 00:21:03,720 --> 00:21:06,640 which we need for the electronics that are so 415 00:21:06,640 --> 00:21:08,760 important here in the US. They're talking about the 416 00:21:08,760 --> 00:21:11,840 framework of a deal. How do you feel this meeting's 417 00:21:11,840 --> 00:21:14,240 going to go, Matt? Well, what's so interesting 418 00:21:14,320 --> 00:21:19,240 about the China meeting is that, first of all, it's a bit late in 419 00:21:19,240 --> 00:21:20,360 coming. I mean, they should have had a 420 00:21:20,360 --> 00:21:23,200 meeting much earlier, but there's been so much shadow 421 00:21:23,200 --> 00:21:25,880 boxing and there's been such a kind of trade war between the 422 00:21:25,880 --> 00:21:27,320 two of them. It's been virtually impossible 423 00:21:27,320 --> 00:21:30,800 so far. Before we get to the, I want to 424 00:21:30,800 --> 00:21:34,640 have, I have a lot to say about China and I know reasonable. 425 00:21:34,640 --> 00:21:36,240 I used to be based in Asia. I went to China. 426 00:21:36,440 --> 00:21:39,440 You know, I did Mandarin at school when I was 18 and I went 427 00:21:39,440 --> 00:21:44,240 to China for three months in 1981 by myself. 428 00:21:44,480 --> 00:21:46,720 I was the loneliest person I've ever met. 429 00:21:47,320 --> 00:21:51,040 Shenzhen, which is now a mega city of 26,000,000, was then a 430 00:21:51,040 --> 00:21:54,520 city, a town actually, of 10,000 people. 431 00:21:54,760 --> 00:21:58,840 Anyway, just briefly, Bannon, what Bannon said to me in in my 432 00:21:58,840 --> 00:22:01,560 meeting with him in Rome is that the two things that Donald Trump 433 00:22:01,560 --> 00:22:03,320 hates, one is to be made to feel stupid. 434 00:22:03,520 --> 00:22:06,400 And the second one, which he hates even more, is not to be 435 00:22:06,400 --> 00:22:09,480 cut in on a good deal, right? So that's what he's doing when 436 00:22:09,480 --> 00:22:12,560 he's going around the world cutting good deals for America, 437 00:22:12,560 --> 00:22:16,920 but also one assumes when he can above board for himself. 438 00:22:17,280 --> 00:22:22,240 Now with China, he thought back on Liberation Day that, you 439 00:22:22,240 --> 00:22:24,520 know, looking at the trade balance, the Chinese sellers 440 00:22:24,720 --> 00:22:28,360 five times as many things as we sell them, that he had the way 441 00:22:28,360 --> 00:22:29,800 he wanted them. That, you know, he could 442 00:22:29,800 --> 00:22:32,320 increase tariffs. And the initial stages, it was 443 00:22:32,320 --> 00:22:35,240 like, I think 45%. And they would bow to his 444 00:22:35,240 --> 00:22:38,600 greater will. Except the Chinese, having 445 00:22:38,600 --> 00:22:42,440 tasted some of Trump's trade tariff eye in the first 446 00:22:42,440 --> 00:22:45,960 administration, has spent the last five years getting ready 447 00:22:46,160 --> 00:22:49,200 for the next round of Trump tariffs, which did not hit them 448 00:22:49,200 --> 00:22:52,280 with any surprise. And what they knew they had that 449 00:22:52,280 --> 00:22:56,520 American doesn't just want but needs is not just the rare earth 450 00:22:56,520 --> 00:22:58,960 metals, but also pharmaceutical products. 451 00:22:59,480 --> 00:23:03,360 There were 700 pharmaceutical products that cover everything 452 00:23:03,360 --> 00:23:08,560 from cancer to allergies, you know, to, you know, heart 453 00:23:08,560 --> 00:23:11,680 medicine. Some of it Trump might be on 454 00:23:11,680 --> 00:23:14,320 himself, you know, and if you live in America, it's nothing 455 00:23:14,320 --> 00:23:19,000 but medical ads on television. 700 of these antibiotics, 700 of 456 00:23:19,000 --> 00:23:23,920 these can only be made because China is selling America the 457 00:23:23,920 --> 00:23:26,800 chemicals in order, the pharmaceutical products in order 458 00:23:26,800 --> 00:23:29,520 to make those things. That's on top of the rare earth 459 00:23:29,520 --> 00:23:32,840 metals, which we've talked about a lot recently, which go into 460 00:23:32,840 --> 00:23:36,120 everything from smartphones to F30 fives, you know, everything 461 00:23:36,120 --> 00:23:40,080 in America that is kind of digital and moves has got, you 462 00:23:40,080 --> 00:23:43,440 know, a rare earth metal in it. Now, why are the Americans not 463 00:23:43,560 --> 00:23:46,080 making the stuff themselves? Well, they used to make it in 464 00:23:46,080 --> 00:23:48,600 the in the early noughties, America had two big rare earth, 465 00:23:49,040 --> 00:23:52,400 you know, mines, I think one in Arizona, one in New Mexico. 466 00:23:52,840 --> 00:23:55,600 But then they weren't making a lot of money because the Chinese 467 00:23:55,600 --> 00:23:57,080 were making the stuff more cheaply. 468 00:23:57,080 --> 00:23:59,360 And also they're very dirty to mine. 469 00:23:59,360 --> 00:24:01,160 And in China they don't really give a stuff about the 470 00:24:01,160 --> 00:24:03,160 environment. Whereas in America you kind of, 471 00:24:04,440 --> 00:24:07,960 they do, oddly enough, they did, they did well, they, they did, 472 00:24:08,600 --> 00:24:10,800 you know, even when it was Jewel, baby Jewel, they still 473 00:24:10,880 --> 00:24:13,680 did. And so the Americans, like so 474 00:24:13,680 --> 00:24:17,960 much else, outsourced this to China because it was cheaper and 475 00:24:17,960 --> 00:24:21,120 there was a very efficient production and delivery line. 476 00:24:21,640 --> 00:24:23,960 And of course, that put the Chinese in a position where they 477 00:24:23,960 --> 00:24:27,960 are literally, they don't just mine 65% of rare earths, they 478 00:24:27,960 --> 00:24:32,480 process 90% of the stuff. So one of the other deals that 479 00:24:32,480 --> 00:24:36,000 he's discussing with Japan is how to mine rare earth metals. 480 00:24:36,000 --> 00:24:38,560 I don't know if Japan has them. Actually, lots of countries do, 481 00:24:38,720 --> 00:24:41,440 Ukraine included and how to process them. 482 00:24:41,440 --> 00:24:44,320 So and, and of course, where he's right is that everyone else 483 00:24:45,000 --> 00:24:48,160 and in Asia, they're more afraid of China than they are in the US 484 00:24:48,320 --> 00:24:50,440 because they know what China feels like up close and 485 00:24:50,440 --> 00:24:52,640 personal. He's got a sort of coalition of 486 00:24:52,640 --> 00:24:55,320 the winning going on trying to get a rare earths out of the 487 00:24:55,320 --> 00:24:58,320 soil and process them. And Australia is also part of 488 00:24:58,320 --> 00:25:01,400 that deal. But that's but what he but for 489 00:25:01,400 --> 00:25:03,760 him, he didn't really take that into account. 490 00:25:03,960 --> 00:25:07,120 He thought if we stop buying the Barbie dolls that they make, and 491 00:25:07,120 --> 00:25:08,960 by the way, they're not making them anymore because they're now 492 00:25:09,000 --> 00:25:13,400 made in Vietnam, then they will hurt so much that they will just 493 00:25:13,400 --> 00:25:16,160 buckle. And he was wrong on one thing, 494 00:25:16,160 --> 00:25:18,440 though. I think we have to be, you know, 495 00:25:18,440 --> 00:25:21,520 we have to be fair, not to him necessarily, but to the balance 496 00:25:21,520 --> 00:25:24,320 of this trade war. Yes, the Chinese have the 497 00:25:24,320 --> 00:25:27,160 Americans by the short and curlies on rare earth metals and 498 00:25:27,160 --> 00:25:31,600 pharmaceuticals, but China is in the middle of a major 499 00:25:31,840 --> 00:25:36,040 manufacturing bubble. They had a housing bubble until 500 00:25:36,040 --> 00:25:39,640 about 3 years ago, which was in is still in danger of bursting 501 00:25:40,040 --> 00:25:42,880 catastrophically. You know, 10s of millions of 502 00:25:42,880 --> 00:25:47,520 Chinese, formerly farmers now, now factory workers or clerks 503 00:25:47,840 --> 00:25:51,360 bought flats that they thought worth was, were worth something 504 00:25:51,360 --> 00:25:53,000 and they're not worth that anymore. 505 00:25:53,000 --> 00:25:54,960 And that they're kind of knee deep in mortgages. 506 00:25:55,480 --> 00:25:59,520 And so the along comes this idea from Xi Jinping. 507 00:25:59,520 --> 00:26:02,160 We've got to build up our factory capacity. 508 00:26:02,160 --> 00:26:06,320 We have to become the world's manufacturing hub, which is 509 00:26:06,320 --> 00:26:08,720 indeed what they've done. You want to build anything, you 510 00:26:08,720 --> 00:26:12,000 build it cheaper and faster and more efficiently in China than 511 00:26:12,000 --> 00:26:15,040 anywhere else on the planet. But this capacity has to go 512 00:26:15,040 --> 00:26:16,440 somewhere. They've got to sell the stuff 513 00:26:16,440 --> 00:26:19,080 they make. And if America isn't buying that 514 00:26:19,080 --> 00:26:21,960 anymore, it'll help. It'll hurt American consumers 515 00:26:21,960 --> 00:26:24,880 because their Barbie dolls or their television sets or fridges 516 00:26:24,880 --> 00:26:27,200 will be more expensive. And they weren't like that. 517 00:26:27,400 --> 00:26:29,200 But it'll really hurt China as well. 518 00:26:29,360 --> 00:26:32,040 Yeah. So both sides have a massive 519 00:26:32,040 --> 00:26:34,800 motivation to try to come to some sort of deal. 520 00:26:35,520 --> 00:26:39,880 I'm not sure if Donald Trump was quite aware of the size of the 521 00:26:39,920 --> 00:26:42,360 motivation on his side, as you say. 522 00:26:42,560 --> 00:26:46,160 And look, I always find with all of this is, you know, people 523 00:26:46,160 --> 00:26:49,360 might not believe that the way he's gone about tariffs is the 524 00:26:49,360 --> 00:26:53,240 right way to go about it. And clearly tariffs are going to 525 00:26:53,240 --> 00:26:56,640 impose a cost, a financial cost on American consumers. 526 00:26:57,560 --> 00:27:01,600 But also, is there an underlying argument there which isn't 527 00:27:02,080 --> 00:27:05,840 untrue, which is, you know, when you talked about the idea that, 528 00:27:05,920 --> 00:27:10,160 you know, they decided to take the rare earth minerals all from 529 00:27:10,200 --> 00:27:13,480 China and many of these other goods, you know, you know, you 530 00:27:13,480 --> 00:27:16,080 could argue that was because China was using cheap labour to 531 00:27:16,080 --> 00:27:18,520 buy these goods rather, you know, to make these goods rather 532 00:27:18,520 --> 00:27:21,800 than a comparative advantage in the way economists would 533 00:27:21,800 --> 00:27:23,720 originally and purely have talked about it. 534 00:27:23,880 --> 00:27:26,920 So I think the issue here is, and I find this in America, 535 00:27:26,920 --> 00:27:29,800 there's no big outcry about Trump's tariffs at the moment, 536 00:27:30,040 --> 00:27:33,960 partly because I think people sort of by his underlying 537 00:27:33,960 --> 00:27:37,120 argument for it. The question is if and when the 538 00:27:37,120 --> 00:27:40,840 prices start to rise at a level. But it's really quite painful. 539 00:27:41,280 --> 00:27:43,160 I think that's huge because I think that was one of the 540 00:27:43,240 --> 00:27:45,080 biggest factors in the last election. 541 00:27:45,600 --> 00:27:47,720 And I think it's hard to get around that basically. 542 00:27:47,720 --> 00:27:49,760 Absolutely, and especially for people who are, you know, who 543 00:27:49,760 --> 00:27:52,120 don't earn a lot of money, inflation hits low income 544 00:27:52,120 --> 00:27:53,600 families much harder than others. 545 00:27:54,000 --> 00:27:56,840 But the other thing is that remember the the China tariffs 546 00:27:56,840 --> 00:27:59,000 haven't actually kicked in yet because they've been kicked into 547 00:27:59,000 --> 00:28:02,400 the long grass. So any inflation resulting from 548 00:28:02,400 --> 00:28:04,840 China towers we won't have seen yet. 549 00:28:04,840 --> 00:28:07,000 We, we will get to see that next year. 550 00:28:07,480 --> 00:28:10,920 And the other really fascinating thing about Trump is it like so 551 00:28:10,920 --> 00:28:13,680 much in the world, he's, he's sort of 100 years behind 552 00:28:13,680 --> 00:28:15,920 everyone else. So he's obsessed with American 553 00:28:15,920 --> 00:28:18,360 manufacturing and reviving American manufacturing. 554 00:28:18,360 --> 00:28:21,560 Like, you know, in the good old days of Bethlehem Steel and you 555 00:28:21,560 --> 00:28:23,520 know, all these big company, you know, all the early days of the, 556 00:28:23,680 --> 00:28:26,360 of the, of the car, the car companies, the car giants. 557 00:28:26,760 --> 00:28:29,560 But of course, he doesn't take into account and rarely talks 558 00:28:29,560 --> 00:28:31,960 about automation. So if you're a company that 559 00:28:31,960 --> 00:28:34,840 can't produce stuff cheaply in China, you produce it in America 560 00:28:34,960 --> 00:28:38,400 with robots and with AI and, and you're still not going to give 561 00:28:38,400 --> 00:28:40,280 those poor American workers their jobs back. 562 00:28:40,600 --> 00:28:43,960 The other thing is that he regards tariffs very much as 563 00:28:43,960 --> 00:28:46,960 what they used to be literally 100 years ago when the 564 00:28:46,960 --> 00:28:49,600 government, the federal government of Washington made 565 00:28:49,600 --> 00:28:53,000 much more money from tariffs with other countries than it did 566 00:28:53,000 --> 00:28:55,240 from taxes. There was, there was virtually 567 00:28:55,240 --> 00:28:57,720 no income tax that people collected that the federal 568 00:28:57,720 --> 00:29:00,160 government collected in those days, but there was quite a lot 569 00:29:00,160 --> 00:29:03,080 of money, more money that they collected by charging people who 570 00:29:03,080 --> 00:29:05,640 wanted to trade with America. So again, I don't know what he's 571 00:29:05,640 --> 00:29:08,560 reading, you know, or if he's reading or who he's listening 572 00:29:08,560 --> 00:29:10,960 to. He's got a very 19th century 573 00:29:10,960 --> 00:29:15,000 mindset, not just about how power works on the world stage, 574 00:29:15,000 --> 00:29:19,160 but also how the economy or the economic cookie crumbles. 575 00:29:19,600 --> 00:29:22,760 And, you know, and at the same time, yes, he, you know, he, 576 00:29:22,800 --> 00:29:26,040 he's interested in AI and he's fascinated by all that. 577 00:29:26,040 --> 00:29:28,640 And he's trying to bring lots of money into America to make sure 578 00:29:28,640 --> 00:29:31,080 that, you know, they, they, they stay ahead of the game. 579 00:29:31,240 --> 00:29:35,080 But even on that one, you remember, you know, the 580 00:29:35,080 --> 00:29:39,320 Americans picked a war with Huawei, the electronics giant in 581 00:29:39,320 --> 00:29:42,960 China that makes mobile phones, but now also makes cars. 582 00:29:42,960 --> 00:29:46,080 And the idea was from the first Trump administration, you kill 583 00:29:46,080 --> 00:29:48,720 off Huawei because we don't trust them, because they're a 584 00:29:48,720 --> 00:29:50,840 Chinese company trying to encroach on our markets. 585 00:29:51,120 --> 00:29:54,680 And you do this by denying them American made microchips. 586 00:29:54,680 --> 00:29:56,640 Well, guess what? The Chinese then made their own 587 00:29:56,680 --> 00:29:59,040 chips. They made them just as well, but 588 00:29:59,040 --> 00:30:02,240 a lot more cheaply. And Huawei instead of dying has 589 00:30:02,240 --> 00:30:07,800 become this resurgent, you know, digital era phone company turned 590 00:30:07,800 --> 00:30:12,440 car company empire that is extraordinarily successful. 591 00:30:13,360 --> 00:30:15,920 And so you mess with the Chinese at your peril. 592 00:30:15,920 --> 00:30:18,560 And and the Chinese are very good at using the government, 593 00:30:18,560 --> 00:30:21,440 the central government, either with tax incentives or 594 00:30:21,440 --> 00:30:25,240 regulations to basically allow Chinese companies not just to 595 00:30:25,240 --> 00:30:29,000 succeed, but also to fail and not be punished for it. 596 00:30:29,640 --> 00:30:32,520 And so the idea to getting back to rare earth metals in America, 597 00:30:32,520 --> 00:30:36,680 it's all down to the free market company mines rare earth metals. 598 00:30:36,680 --> 00:30:38,200 They're not making a ton of money out of it. 599 00:30:38,400 --> 00:30:40,400 They find it easier if they do that in China. 600 00:30:40,760 --> 00:30:44,600 The Chinese set up rare earth metal mining companies left, 601 00:30:44,600 --> 00:30:47,080 right and centre. They allow four out of the 10 602 00:30:47,080 --> 00:30:48,320 they've set up to go to the wall. 603 00:30:48,520 --> 00:30:51,160 The other six thrive. They don't give a stuff about 604 00:30:51,160 --> 00:30:53,320 the environment and then and then. 605 00:30:53,320 --> 00:30:57,920 So it's Chinese industrial policy combined with free market 606 00:30:57,920 --> 00:31:02,040 capitalism, that and, and an equal and a legal structure that 607 00:31:02,040 --> 00:31:05,600 allows companies to to fail without too much punishment or 608 00:31:05,600 --> 00:31:09,160 to thrive, you know, and they've relatively low tax rate. 609 00:31:10,080 --> 00:31:13,640 I mean, they've basically taken America's capitalist game and 610 00:31:13,640 --> 00:31:16,080 beaten them at it. And Trump hates that. 611 00:31:16,760 --> 00:31:19,040 He hates it. One thing I do wonder about what 612 00:31:19,040 --> 00:31:22,720 we're going to see out of this agreement that we'll see 613 00:31:22,720 --> 00:31:28,720 tomorrow and the meeting is it's all based on fixing smaller 614 00:31:28,720 --> 00:31:32,000 sectoral issues. So there'll be an agreement on 615 00:31:32,000 --> 00:31:34,680 soya beans and there'll be an agreement on rare earth 616 00:31:34,680 --> 00:31:37,600 minerals, which will stop China from going ahead with a plan to 617 00:31:37,600 --> 00:31:41,000 halt exports or control exports to the US. 618 00:31:41,000 --> 00:31:45,320 But actually, the question of trade between China and the US 619 00:31:45,320 --> 00:31:48,160 is a much bigger one. It's one that has massive 620 00:31:48,160 --> 00:31:50,640 implications for the entire world because of the size of the 621 00:31:50,640 --> 00:31:53,640 two economies. It is one that actually, you 622 00:31:53,640 --> 00:31:56,680 know, goes back decades. You know, America has never been 623 00:31:56,680 --> 00:31:59,680 happy since China was part of the World Trade Organization. 624 00:31:59,680 --> 00:32:02,760 Never thought it played by the rules in a fairway. 625 00:32:02,760 --> 00:32:04,960 That's right to a good point. They cheated, yeah. 626 00:32:06,280 --> 00:32:10,080 And, and so is, is a kind of agreement which is very focused 627 00:32:10,080 --> 00:32:14,680 on individual sectoral issues actually going to fix the really 628 00:32:14,680 --> 00:32:17,040 big tension between these countries? 629 00:32:17,200 --> 00:32:19,960 And, and just as we're talking about this, China is the third 630 00:32:19,960 --> 00:32:24,520 biggest exporter into the US you know, Canada is above it. 631 00:32:24,520 --> 00:32:27,600 And I just want to talk very briefly about what's happened in 632 00:32:27,600 --> 00:32:30,520 Canada, because it is so interesting. 633 00:32:30,520 --> 00:32:34,680 So the Ontario government put out an advert in which they 634 00:32:35,120 --> 00:32:38,280 essentially played the voice of former President Ronald Reagan, 635 00:32:38,560 --> 00:32:43,320 obviously a hero to many on the right in America, talking about 636 00:32:43,320 --> 00:32:47,040 the need for free trade and how tariffs really hurt people and 637 00:32:47,040 --> 00:32:50,880 how they hurt American consumers and they hurt jobs and so on. 638 00:32:51,720 --> 00:32:55,680 And there was a complaint by an organization sort of set up in 639 00:32:55,680 --> 00:32:59,360 Ronald Reagan's name that it had misinterpreted what Ronald 640 00:32:59,360 --> 00:33:02,320 Reagan had actually stood for, missed out the context. 641 00:33:02,560 --> 00:33:06,040 Donald Trump got angry about it and slapped additional tariffs 642 00:33:06,040 --> 00:33:08,440 on Canada as a result of all of this. 643 00:33:08,440 --> 00:33:11,640 And I just yesterday, I went back and I watched the original 644 00:33:12,280 --> 00:33:16,400 radio delivery. It was radio, but it was also 645 00:33:16,400 --> 00:33:19,280 filmed of Ronald Reagan and watched it to see whether it was 646 00:33:19,280 --> 00:33:21,520 in context. And it was so interesting to 647 00:33:21,520 --> 00:33:23,840 listen to it. It is true that the context was 648 00:33:23,840 --> 00:33:28,120 that they had put tariffs on a few individual things with Japan 649 00:33:28,120 --> 00:33:31,440 at the time, because there was a very specific argument to do it. 650 00:33:31,440 --> 00:33:33,920 And what Ronald Reagan was trying to argue was there was a 651 00:33:33,920 --> 00:33:35,760 really specific reason why I'm doing this. 652 00:33:35,760 --> 00:33:39,320 But let me be clear. I believe in free trade on the 653 00:33:39,320 --> 00:33:42,600 whole. I mean, the radio address, if 654 00:33:42,600 --> 00:33:45,360 people were to go and listen to it, is stronger than the Ontario 655 00:33:45,400 --> 00:33:48,560 advert. It is basically saying tariffs 656 00:33:48,560 --> 00:33:52,040 hurt people, they hurt our people, they hurt our consumers, 657 00:33:52,040 --> 00:33:55,640 they hurt our workers. And we should never go down the 658 00:33:55,640 --> 00:33:59,520 line of trying to trigger a trade war because if we do, 659 00:33:59,720 --> 00:34:01,480 gosh, the consequences will be huge. 660 00:34:01,760 --> 00:34:04,160 It's fascinating. I never knew that Trump would 661 00:34:04,160 --> 00:34:07,160 take Reagan quite so seriously, or rather want to protect him so 662 00:34:07,160 --> 00:34:08,520 much. Or whatever it is. 663 00:34:08,520 --> 00:34:13,000 I just just before we go really important on Xi Jinping meeting 664 00:34:13,280 --> 00:34:15,719 Donald Trump there, there's something puzzling about Donald, 665 00:34:15,719 --> 00:34:17,400 Donald Trump's attitude to China. 666 00:34:17,800 --> 00:34:20,440 And I knew that he, he's been wary of China for a long time 667 00:34:20,440 --> 00:34:23,920 because when I interviewed him back in 2013 and I said you 668 00:34:23,920 --> 00:34:26,199 don't pick a fight with your banker China, that stage was the 669 00:34:26,199 --> 00:34:28,360 biggest buyer of U.S. Treasury bills. 670 00:34:28,560 --> 00:34:31,199 He called me stupid to my face, which is of course, a golden 671 00:34:31,199 --> 00:34:32,440 moment. You want to be called stupid by 672 00:34:32,440 --> 00:34:35,719 Donald Trump, but he really likes Xi Jinping. 673 00:34:35,719 --> 00:34:38,199 He really admires him and he's been quite open about it. 674 00:34:38,360 --> 00:34:41,840 But he's very wary of China and sees China as the global 675 00:34:42,239 --> 00:34:46,000 competitor, America competitor to America, probably accurately. 676 00:34:46,199 --> 00:34:48,199 I think that that is definitely what's happening right here. 677 00:34:48,440 --> 00:34:51,239 But this love affair with Xi Jinping is really interesting. 678 00:34:51,480 --> 00:34:56,040 And what I worry about on behalf of Taiwan, remember Taiwan is 679 00:34:56,040 --> 00:34:59,680 that this, you know, this plucky, very wealthy island 680 00:34:59,680 --> 00:35:05,160 nation that by the way, produces 90% of the fastest 681 00:35:05,160 --> 00:35:09,040 superconductor chips that are used anywhere, you know, from 682 00:35:09,120 --> 00:35:11,960 fighter jets to refrigerators, you know, they, they're produced 683 00:35:11,960 --> 00:35:14,720 in Taiwan. So Taiwan also has something 684 00:35:14,720 --> 00:35:19,800 that everyone else needs and wants, but Taiwan doesn't want 685 00:35:19,800 --> 00:35:22,360 to be part of China. The, the president of Taiwan who 686 00:35:22,360 --> 00:35:26,680 was recently elected is more anti Chinese or anti the idea of 687 00:35:26,680 --> 00:35:29,680 reunification than the previous one was. 688 00:35:30,280 --> 00:35:34,080 And So what does Trump do here? Does he do what Biden did? 689 00:35:34,280 --> 00:35:36,520 Who actually went out of his way to say, I'm going to defend 690 00:35:36,520 --> 00:35:40,760 Taiwan, China, if you attack Taiwan, moving away from the 691 00:35:40,760 --> 00:35:43,920 policy of constructive ambiguity, which kept the the 692 00:35:43,920 --> 00:35:47,800 Chinese guessing. Or does he say, as he did to Joe 693 00:35:47,800 --> 00:35:51,400 Rogan in the election campaign, why are we protecting all these 694 00:35:51,400 --> 00:35:54,960 people who stole our US chip technology? 695 00:35:54,960 --> 00:35:57,560 Right. That made Taiwanese faces 696 00:35:57,560 --> 00:36:01,040 blanche when they heard that. Because it's quite possible in a 697 00:36:01,040 --> 00:36:04,840 transactional frame of mind that Trump will say, OK, I'll do a 698 00:36:04,840 --> 00:36:07,200 deal with China. What does China really want from 699 00:36:07,200 --> 00:36:11,200 Trump other than its markets? It wants its hands off Taiwan. 700 00:36:11,520 --> 00:36:15,480 And if America stands away from Taiwan, it'll be so much easier 701 00:36:15,480 --> 00:36:18,400 for the Chinese, the People's Liberation Army, to try and 702 00:36:18,400 --> 00:36:21,200 invade the island and take it over, which is a very difficult 703 00:36:21,520 --> 00:36:25,360 and costly exercise, More difficult arguably than than 704 00:36:25,360 --> 00:36:28,360 invading Ukraine because it's an island with a very high 705 00:36:28,360 --> 00:36:30,480 coastline. And the Taiwanese are very 706 00:36:30,480 --> 00:36:33,560 motivated to fight back. Like the, like the Ukrainians. 707 00:36:33,560 --> 00:36:35,120 They have, you know, quite a good army. 708 00:36:35,520 --> 00:36:38,480 You know, they can take out Chinese ships coming their way, 709 00:36:38,480 --> 00:36:40,720 etcetera, etcetera. It would be a very, very costly 710 00:36:40,720 --> 00:36:43,240 thing to do. And Xi Jinping doesn't trust the 711 00:36:43,240 --> 00:36:46,400 People's Liberation Army to do it well enough to do it 712 00:36:46,400 --> 00:36:49,640 relatively bloodlessly. But that is his big ticket item. 713 00:36:49,880 --> 00:36:53,680 And if Donald Trump is part of a trade deal, since even just 714 00:36:53,680 --> 00:36:56,480 gives the Chinese the green light, that makes them think 715 00:36:56,480 --> 00:36:59,840 that he may just stand to one side because he doesn't give a 716 00:36:59,840 --> 00:37:02,440 damn about principles of democracy and freedom. 717 00:37:03,360 --> 00:37:05,800 You know, that's irrelevant. It's about hemispheric power. 718 00:37:06,160 --> 00:37:08,920 Then Taiwan is in big trouble. And that is where we then get 719 00:37:08,920 --> 00:37:14,440 into a an incredibly nervous situation for Asia and possibly 720 00:37:14,440 --> 00:37:17,760 for all of us if he suddenly changes his mind and says, well, 721 00:37:17,760 --> 00:37:20,480 actually, I know you've started to invade Taiwan or you've got a 722 00:37:20,480 --> 00:37:23,120 military blockade going on. But actually I do want to 723 00:37:23,120 --> 00:37:26,240 protect them, either because I need their microchips or because 724 00:37:26,240 --> 00:37:29,240 I I respect what they do. I respect them as a democracy. 725 00:37:29,240 --> 00:37:31,560 We don't know. So this is a major point of 726 00:37:31,560 --> 00:37:35,000 friction that they may try and sort out in their meeting in 727 00:37:35,000 --> 00:37:38,320 South Korea, but they may actually just create more 728 00:37:38,320 --> 00:37:39,560 trouble for further down the line. 729 00:37:39,880 --> 00:37:43,240 Well, we'll all be watching very closely when these two leaders 730 00:37:43,360 --> 00:37:45,400 meet tomorrow. It could have massive 731 00:37:45,560 --> 00:37:49,400 ramifications for the world. That's all we've got time for 732 00:37:49,400 --> 00:37:52,200 this week on Trump WORLD. I'm Anish Kristana here in 733 00:37:52,200 --> 00:37:55,160 Washington, DC. I'm Matt Fry in London, goodbye 734 00:37:55,160 --> 00:37:57,080 from the two of us and I hope you enjoyed it. 735 00:37:57,080 --> 00:37:58,680 See you next week. See you next week.