1 00:00:09,100 --> 00:00:12,600 Welcome to the IPM podcast. APM is the childhood body for 2 00:00:12,600 --> 00:00:15,500 the project profession. My name is Emma DeVito, and I'm 3 00:00:15,508 --> 00:00:19,100 the editor of project apm's coarsely journal and your host 4 00:00:19,300 --> 00:00:21,100 today. I'm speaking again with bent 5 00:00:21,100 --> 00:00:23,500 flew via. The first BT professor and 6 00:00:23,500 --> 00:00:26,600 inaugural chair of major program management to the University of 7 00:00:26,600 --> 00:00:30,100 Oxford Sayid business school, who has just published a new New 8 00:00:30,100 --> 00:00:33,500 book together with journalists and Gardner, called how big 9 00:00:33,500 --> 00:00:36,300 things get done. The surprising factors behind 10 00:00:36,300 --> 00:00:40,100 every successful project from home renovations for science, 11 00:00:40,100 --> 00:00:44,100 exploration published by MacMillan Avid podcast. 12 00:00:44,100 --> 00:00:46,800 Listeners might remember, I spoke to Bent back in March, 20 13 00:00:46,800 --> 00:00:50,800 21 about how to make your projects, a success in which he 14 00:00:50,800 --> 00:00:53,900 spoke about reference class. Forecasting, one of the ways in 15 00:00:53,900 --> 00:00:57,000 which to help ensure the realistic planning budgeting, as 16 00:00:57,000 --> 00:01:01,000 setting of expected benefits for your projects, Been formulated 17 00:01:01,000 --> 00:01:04,800 the iron law of Mega projects that contends that 1 billion 18 00:01:04,800 --> 00:01:08,700 dollar plus mega-projects rail tunnels nuclear power stations 19 00:01:08,700 --> 00:01:12,400 Olympic games were almost always blow their budget and schedule 20 00:01:12,700 --> 00:01:16,900 and yield fewer benefits and promised his new book, outlines 21 00:01:16,900 --> 00:01:19,000 how the data shows this is no mystery. 22 00:01:19,400 --> 00:01:21,800 It's usually the result of terrible forecasting and 23 00:01:21,800 --> 00:01:24,300 planning. The good news is that he 24 00:01:24,300 --> 00:01:27,100 explains how every projects from a house renovation to the 25 00:01:27,100 --> 00:01:29,800 building of a new nuclear power station can be done far more 26 00:01:29,900 --> 00:01:33,300 More successfully, in fact, his approach which hinges on his 27 00:01:33,300 --> 00:01:36,500 reference class, forecasting tool, will he hopes help us to 28 00:01:36,500 --> 00:01:39,300 get to grips with the most critical mega-projects of all 29 00:01:39,600 --> 00:01:46,800 the climate change. Emergency, we all face but 30 00:01:46,900 --> 00:01:49,100 hello, welcome back to the Opium podcast. 31 00:01:49,100 --> 00:01:51,100 So I'm delighted to have you back. 32 00:01:51,400 --> 00:01:53,600 Thank you very much and thank you for having me again. 33 00:01:53,800 --> 00:01:57,300 Let's get down to your book, How big things get done, the 34 00:01:57,300 --> 00:02:00,800 surprising factors behind every successful, Checks from home, 35 00:02:00,800 --> 00:02:02,800 renovations to space exploration. 36 00:02:02,800 --> 00:02:05,700 First thing I wanted to congratulate you and such a 37 00:02:05,700 --> 00:02:08,600 gripping read, which is not something I usually say about 38 00:02:08,600 --> 00:02:11,800 most business books. Why did you want to write this 39 00:02:11,800 --> 00:02:15,900 particular book when you did because they had to do something 40 00:02:15,900 --> 00:02:18,800 during the pandemic. But I started thinking about it 41 00:02:18,800 --> 00:02:20,700 before the pandemic and planning. 42 00:02:20,700 --> 00:02:24,900 Its and the reason that I wanted to do it was that I wanted to do 43 00:02:24,900 --> 00:02:28,800 something that was written in a more popular fashion, you know 44 00:02:28,800 --> 00:02:33,600 where you Have to be an academic or a professional project 45 00:02:33,600 --> 00:02:37,500 manager in order to understand what we were saying in the book, 46 00:02:37,900 --> 00:02:39,100 but it was written in a language. 47 00:02:39,100 --> 00:02:42,500 We are pretty much any person. Could pick it up and understand 48 00:02:42,500 --> 00:02:44,600 what it was about and also understand that it actually 49 00:02:44,600 --> 00:02:47,300 relates to their life. It's not just about these big 50 00:02:47,300 --> 00:02:52,000 projects you hear about in the news like hs2 or a new 51 00:02:52,000 --> 00:02:54,100 skyscraper somewhere in the world. 52 00:02:55,300 --> 00:02:59,600 It's also about the products we do in our daily lives like you 53 00:02:59,600 --> 00:03:03,800 know, Organizing a holiday or a wedding or doing a home. 54 00:03:03,800 --> 00:03:06,900 Renovation is an example. We love and we use in the book. 55 00:03:07,000 --> 00:03:11,300 So we also wanted to write about project management in the way 56 00:03:11,300 --> 00:03:14,200 that it became clear to people that this is actually about your 57 00:03:14,200 --> 00:03:16,200 life. It's not about something that is 58 00:03:16,200 --> 00:03:18,200 happening, only in professional circles. 59 00:03:18,200 --> 00:03:20,100 It's also happening in your daily life. 60 00:03:21,000 --> 00:03:25,200 One of the messages that really stuck with me is the central 61 00:03:25,200 --> 00:03:29,800 idea is think, slow act fast, could you explain to listeners 62 00:03:29,900 --> 00:03:34,300 What this actually means and how it should be applied to 63 00:03:34,300 --> 00:03:37,400 projects. The first thing I want to say is 64 00:03:37,400 --> 00:03:41,100 that I think some people would rebel against things slow 65 00:03:41,100 --> 00:03:45,100 because they think it means take a long time, and it doesn't 66 00:03:45,100 --> 00:03:47,900 necessarily mean that it means that you need to slow down your 67 00:03:47,900 --> 00:03:52,100 thinking in accordance with the findings, in behavioral 68 00:03:52,100 --> 00:03:54,900 economics. So, you know, Daniel kahneman's 69 00:03:55,000 --> 00:03:57,900 book called thinking fast and slow. 70 00:03:58,000 --> 00:04:00,000 It's about. We have these two ways of 71 00:04:00,000 --> 00:04:04,900 thinking and one is our spontaneous way that we use as a 72 00:04:04,908 --> 00:04:08,800 fallback position. She's the fastest ways, we think 73 00:04:08,800 --> 00:04:12,000 fast and that gets us into a lot of trouble. 74 00:04:12,300 --> 00:04:14,900 So there's probably a good reason in evolutionary terms 75 00:04:14,900 --> 00:04:19,399 that we have this ability to think really fast, you know, but 76 00:04:19,500 --> 00:04:21,600 some things are not suited for that. 77 00:04:21,600 --> 00:04:25,100 And I would say that a big project is the kind of thing 78 00:04:25,100 --> 00:04:27,700 that is not suited for fast thinking that you actually need 79 00:04:27,700 --> 00:04:29,400 to carefully, consider what you're doing. 80 00:04:29,400 --> 00:04:31,800 Because the fact that it's big means that it has big 81 00:04:31,800 --> 00:04:34,200 consequences, including on your own life. 82 00:04:34,200 --> 00:04:38,500 It's one of your private projects, So the we basically 83 00:04:38,500 --> 00:04:41,600 use the results from behavioral economics and Behavioral Science 84 00:04:41,600 --> 00:04:46,200 and saying, okay this is a very, very well documented finding 85 00:04:46,200 --> 00:04:49,300 that we actually need to think slow to be successful. 86 00:04:50,300 --> 00:04:52,400 Behavioral economics, don't go further than that. 87 00:04:52,400 --> 00:04:55,800 But we go further, we take the action side in because, of 88 00:04:55,800 --> 00:04:58,200 course, that's important when you're doing projects, it's all 89 00:04:58,200 --> 00:05:00,600 about action. There's no project isn't worth 90 00:05:00,600 --> 00:05:03,000 much. If it's all just thinking or 91 00:05:03,000 --> 00:05:05,900 words on paper, it needs to happen in reality and that's 92 00:05:06,100 --> 00:05:09,600 Where the action comes in and we've started products very 93 00:05:09,600 --> 00:05:13,100 carefully and and many people actually think the bigger the 94 00:05:13,100 --> 00:05:16,900 project you do, the more risky and difficult it is. 95 00:05:17,000 --> 00:05:20,400 And we find that's actually not, that's not the main problem, 96 00:05:20,500 --> 00:05:23,900 there's a bit of Truth to that but not much actually, the main 97 00:05:23,900 --> 00:05:27,900 thing is the longer. It takes the more risky it is 98 00:05:27,900 --> 00:05:30,600 and the higher risk of going terribly wrong. 99 00:05:31,000 --> 00:05:34,700 So it's actually time that is the killer for projects not size 100 00:05:35,300 --> 00:05:38,100 and this is something thing that has never been documented before 101 00:05:38,100 --> 00:05:42,300 that, it's actually about time and not size time is the killer. 102 00:05:42,500 --> 00:05:46,800 So that's why we say egg fast. So by aging fast, you can 103 00:05:46,800 --> 00:05:49,700 actually reduce your risks enormously, especially you have 104 00:05:49,700 --> 00:05:52,100 been thinking slow for her. So that's why we say the rhythm 105 00:05:52,100 --> 00:05:55,700 of success in projects is think slow act fast. 106 00:05:56,100 --> 00:06:00,800 So when you say act fast and if you act slower, there's higher 107 00:06:00,800 --> 00:06:02,600 risk. Can you spell out why that is? 108 00:06:02,600 --> 00:06:06,400 Is it because you've got a greater window open to Events. 109 00:06:06,400 --> 00:06:08,800 That might disrupt the project. Exactly. 110 00:06:08,800 --> 00:06:11,900 That's that's the key the window and how big the window is and we 111 00:06:11,900 --> 00:06:15,200 call it the window of Doom and that's very well founded. 112 00:06:15,200 --> 00:06:19,400 I mean, this is based on heart research and because the bigger 113 00:06:19,400 --> 00:06:23,400 you make the window, which means the the bigger you make the 114 00:06:23,400 --> 00:06:26,000 period that you are delivering in the higher. 115 00:06:26,000 --> 00:06:28,400 The risk is that something bad is going to fly through that 116 00:06:28,400 --> 00:06:31,200 window and smash up your project, black swans, for 117 00:06:31,200 --> 00:06:34,500 instance, to use the term that nesting Nicholas taleb has made 118 00:06:34,800 --> 00:06:38,300 popular. That it actually turns out that 119 00:06:38,300 --> 00:06:41,200 the risk of black swans derailing. 120 00:06:41,200 --> 00:06:44,000 Your project goes up exponentially with the longer 121 00:06:44,000 --> 00:06:46,200 the time you take. So it's very risky to take a 122 00:06:46,200 --> 00:06:47,900 long time in terms of black swans. 123 00:06:48,100 --> 00:06:51,700 And this is a very important, maybe the most important finding 124 00:06:51,700 --> 00:06:55,600 in the book, in my own point of view is that the vast majority 125 00:06:55,600 --> 00:06:58,100 of projects have fed Tails regarding performance. 126 00:06:58,100 --> 00:07:02,700 So so products are Black Swan inclined. 127 00:07:03,400 --> 00:07:06,400 That means that the best thing you can do to reduce Who's that 128 00:07:06,400 --> 00:07:10,300 Black Swan risk and other risks to emphasize is to reduce that 129 00:07:10,300 --> 00:07:14,700 window by keeping it short. And and we study successful 130 00:07:14,700 --> 00:07:16,300 project leaders who are doing exactly. 131 00:07:16,300 --> 00:07:20,200 That probably the most famous right now is Elon Musk. 132 00:07:20,200 --> 00:07:23,000 You know, he's been extremely successful in his company. 133 00:07:23,000 --> 00:07:27,700 So that's Tesla and SpaceX in using these principles that we 134 00:07:27,700 --> 00:07:32,700 are describing in the book, like getting to production really 135 00:07:32,700 --> 00:07:37,600 fast and, and thinking things, Through very carefully before 136 00:07:37,600 --> 00:07:42,700 you start actually doing things and how do you square the 137 00:07:42,700 --> 00:07:47,800 thinking slow with the current appetite for agile and iterative 138 00:07:47,800 --> 00:07:51,200 thinking and just doing something and pivoting and 139 00:07:51,200 --> 00:07:54,400 experimenting. So I want to distinguish between 140 00:07:54,400 --> 00:07:58,000 two types of projects projects that are easily reversible, 141 00:07:58,000 --> 00:08:01,400 where you can very easily. Reverse your decisions and 142 00:08:01,400 --> 00:08:04,000 doesn't matter much, you know, whether you did something and 143 00:08:04,000 --> 00:08:07,200 you have to redo it. And that's Agile is good for 144 00:08:07,500 --> 00:08:10,300 situations where you can easily reverse your decisions and you 145 00:08:10,300 --> 00:08:14,800 can get a learning process going and then you just you revise. 146 00:08:15,300 --> 00:08:18,500 So this is common in software and that's where a child comes 147 00:08:18,500 --> 00:08:21,200 from, right? But I don't mean to say that a 148 00:08:21,200 --> 00:08:23,100 child should be limited to just software. 149 00:08:23,100 --> 00:08:25,900 It's actually very useful method in lots of context. 150 00:08:26,400 --> 00:08:28,800 But software is particularly suitable, because you're not 151 00:08:28,800 --> 00:08:31,500 building anything physical, and it's very, it's quite easy to 152 00:08:31,900 --> 00:08:35,700 change things. And that's why you talk about 153 00:08:35,700 --> 00:08:36,100 me. Mum. 154 00:08:36,100 --> 00:08:38,500 Viable products also in hii, right? 155 00:08:38,500 --> 00:08:41,200 You just build a minimum viable product, your Market, put it to 156 00:08:41,200 --> 00:08:43,600 Market your test it, and then you just take it back again and 157 00:08:43,600 --> 00:08:47,100 you, and you fix things that don't work and you improve it, 158 00:08:47,100 --> 00:08:49,900 then you send it out again and you go through iterations like 159 00:08:49,900 --> 00:08:52,100 that. That's fine for products that 160 00:08:52,100 --> 00:08:55,300 are easily reversible, but products that are not reversible 161 00:08:55,300 --> 00:08:58,400 so irreversible projects, you can't do that. 162 00:08:58,400 --> 00:09:00,800 So, for instance, if you're putting on a wedding, it's not a 163 00:09:00,808 --> 00:09:04,000 good idea just to try a little wedding, you know, and then see 164 00:09:04,000 --> 00:09:05,900 how it goes, and then you do another one, you know. 165 00:09:06,200 --> 00:09:07,700 The same thing. Like if you're building a 166 00:09:07,708 --> 00:09:09,900 skyscraper, how on Earth would you say? 167 00:09:09,900 --> 00:09:11,900 Okay, we're going to put up a skyscraper, it doesn't work. 168 00:09:11,900 --> 00:09:14,200 We take it down again and then we do another one, that would be 169 00:09:14,200 --> 00:09:16,200 agile, right? Doesn't work. 170 00:09:16,400 --> 00:09:20,500 So you have to make a very clear distinction between reversible 171 00:09:20,500 --> 00:09:23,700 and irreversible decisions. Most big projects that actually 172 00:09:23,700 --> 00:09:25,700 irreversible. Now, they don't have to be some 173 00:09:25,700 --> 00:09:28,900 big software products can be built in an agile fashion and, 174 00:09:28,900 --> 00:09:32,500 and some change management products can be done in an agile 175 00:09:32,500 --> 00:09:35,300 versus where you're just changing organizational 176 00:09:35,300 --> 00:09:37,200 structure. Sirs and organizational 177 00:09:37,200 --> 00:09:40,500 processes and so on. And where it's not that big of a 178 00:09:40,508 --> 00:09:43,800 deal, if you make a mistake and have to redo it. 179 00:09:43,900 --> 00:09:46,300 But anything, you know, like you're building a tunnel under 180 00:09:46,300 --> 00:09:48,300 the channel between the UK and France. 181 00:09:48,300 --> 00:09:50,500 You can't just start boring and then say, okay, if start 182 00:09:50,500 --> 00:09:52,300 working, will start pouring somewhere else. 183 00:09:53,200 --> 00:09:57,400 Why does thinking slow and acting fast, not usually happen 184 00:09:58,200 --> 00:10:01,900 because we are programmed to not do this, we are hard-wired from 185 00:10:01,900 --> 00:10:05,700 nature from biology, for whatever reason. 186 00:10:06,200 --> 00:10:08,800 Probably very good revolutionary regions. 187 00:10:09,400 --> 00:10:12,600 We have something called availability bias. 188 00:10:13,700 --> 00:10:18,000 That whatever pops into our brain first and makes itself 189 00:10:18,000 --> 00:10:20,200 available as a thought. And this could be a thought 190 00:10:20,200 --> 00:10:22,800 about a project or an idea for the project. 191 00:10:22,800 --> 00:10:26,500 We tend to take on to that and then disregard all sorts of 192 00:10:26,500 --> 00:10:29,600 other things. We actually kind of lose 193 00:10:29,600 --> 00:10:31,900 perspective because we already have a prospective. 194 00:10:31,900 --> 00:10:34,300 Namely, the first thought that came into our mind. 195 00:10:34,500 --> 00:10:37,500 This is very well-documented again, in Behavioral Science and 196 00:10:37,500 --> 00:10:41,100 behavioral economics, that we have this and this is something 197 00:10:41,100 --> 00:10:43,200 to watch out for. And that's why we think fast, we 198 00:10:43,208 --> 00:10:44,800 just It jumped to the first thing. 199 00:10:45,700 --> 00:10:49,300 And then we assume that this is all there is Kahneman has the 200 00:10:49,300 --> 00:10:52,500 word for he called it. We see a tea which is a terrible 201 00:10:52,500 --> 00:10:56,000 acronym, but that's what he calls it it stands for what you 202 00:10:56,000 --> 00:10:59,400 see is all there is. So what you see is all there is 203 00:10:59,800 --> 00:11:03,800 that's an extremely strong, cognitive bias we have and and 204 00:11:03,800 --> 00:11:07,100 can a man spends a large part of his book describing this and how 205 00:11:07,100 --> 00:11:09,900 it trips us up. So that's what's happening in 206 00:11:09,900 --> 00:11:13,000 projects is that we quickly. Let's go on to some idea. 207 00:11:13,600 --> 00:11:16,400 Maybe even a specific technology technology that we're going to 208 00:11:16,400 --> 00:11:19,000 use for this project and then that's all we see. 209 00:11:19,100 --> 00:11:23,000 What we see is all there is and we run with ads instead of 210 00:11:23,100 --> 00:11:26,400 instead of setting stepping back and saying, okay now I have one 211 00:11:26,400 --> 00:11:30,300 idea now let me start to think about some other ideas and we 212 00:11:30,300 --> 00:11:33,700 give very clear guidance in the book and and take the readers 213 00:11:33,700 --> 00:11:38,000 hand and walk the reader through processes that you can use to 214 00:11:38,000 --> 00:11:40,400 step back and think more systematically about what are 215 00:11:40,400 --> 00:11:42,600 the Alternatives here? What are the many other ways 216 00:11:42,600 --> 00:11:45,400 that we could do this? This and then decide, which of 217 00:11:45,400 --> 00:11:51,600 these ways are you going to use? One of our main means is to ask 218 00:11:51,600 --> 00:11:56,200 why we encourage anybody, who's doing a project to First, sit 219 00:11:56,200 --> 00:12:00,300 down and ask themselves or whoever is doing this project, 220 00:12:00,300 --> 00:12:04,800 why are you doing the project Y? And you need to have a very good 221 00:12:04,800 --> 00:12:08,200 answer to that question before you start. 222 00:12:08,200 --> 00:12:12,400 So, you actually know precisely and very well thought out what 223 00:12:12,400 --> 00:12:15,500 the reasons are that Doing the project then after you know that 224 00:12:15,500 --> 00:12:17,800 you can start thinking backwards from that. 225 00:12:17,800 --> 00:12:19,900 That's the really the end product, you want to end up 226 00:12:19,900 --> 00:12:24,900 with, then you work backwards through the against diagram and 227 00:12:25,000 --> 00:12:27,900 to the left side of the diagram. And then you start thinking 228 00:12:27,900 --> 00:12:32,700 about how do I deliver the why? And, and what's the best way to 229 00:12:32,700 --> 00:12:35,000 do that? That's a way to avoid falling 230 00:12:35,000 --> 00:12:39,200 into this trap of committing to a bad idea of front which is 231 00:12:39,200 --> 00:12:41,200 very common. And if you do that, then you'll 232 00:12:41,208 --> 00:12:43,300 get the opposite of thinking slow acting. 233 00:12:43,400 --> 00:12:46,300 So fast. You get think fast X Lo because 234 00:12:46,300 --> 00:12:49,500 you have, if you haven't thought out what you are going to do, 235 00:12:49,500 --> 00:12:52,200 then all sorts of problems are going to pop up when you can 236 00:12:52,200 --> 00:12:54,100 least afford it. And when it's really going to 237 00:12:54,100 --> 00:12:57,700 slow you down which is in the delivery phase, I want to talk 238 00:12:57,700 --> 00:13:00,200 to you about thinking, right to left. 239 00:13:00,200 --> 00:13:02,000 So that connects with what you were saying. 240 00:13:02,000 --> 00:13:05,100 Just then about, what is it? Why are you doing this project? 241 00:13:05,100 --> 00:13:07,300 What do you hope the outcomes to be? 242 00:13:08,100 --> 00:13:13,300 So thinking right to live is referring to the process. 243 00:13:14,100 --> 00:13:18,600 Chart that is used in most project planning and management. 244 00:13:18,600 --> 00:13:23,800 So the Gantt chart classically where you have the end result 245 00:13:23,800 --> 00:13:26,600 the outcome on the rights and then everything that needs to 246 00:13:26,600 --> 00:13:28,900 happen left of that. So you start all the way on the 247 00:13:28,900 --> 00:13:31,400 left and then you eventually end up on the right. 248 00:13:31,800 --> 00:13:35,600 We say reverse that process, start on the rights, then work 249 00:13:35,600 --> 00:13:38,800 your way backwards to the lift and then you start delivery 250 00:13:38,900 --> 00:13:40,700 while you keep your eyes on the right? 251 00:13:40,700 --> 00:13:43,300 So, you know that at all times, that anything you do. 252 00:13:43,400 --> 00:13:46,200 Do is contributing to what's on the right of the diagram. 253 00:13:46,500 --> 00:13:50,000 And the right is established by the question, why, that's why 254 00:13:50,000 --> 00:13:52,800 you ask the why question, why are we doing this? 255 00:13:52,900 --> 00:13:55,000 What we're doing it? Because we want this, and that 256 00:13:55,000 --> 00:13:58,200 this is your end results. So the why question helps you 257 00:13:58,200 --> 00:14:00,700 put the right thing on the right side of the diagram? 258 00:14:01,400 --> 00:14:03,300 And then, then you work backwards. 259 00:14:03,300 --> 00:14:06,500 And the key thing here is that this helps you having, you know, 260 00:14:06,500 --> 00:14:10,500 you, you're basically having a North star that will lead you 261 00:14:10,700 --> 00:14:12,800 all the way through the project delivery process. 262 00:14:12,800 --> 00:14:16,000 No matter. Complex it is and how much you 263 00:14:16,400 --> 00:14:20,500 you you tend to get lost in the weeds from time to time. 264 00:14:20,800 --> 00:14:23,200 If you look up and you look at what's out there on the right 265 00:14:23,200 --> 00:14:26,200 you know where what you should be aiming for and then you just 266 00:14:26,200 --> 00:14:28,900 look down and see is what I'm doing now. 267 00:14:29,200 --> 00:14:32,300 Actually contributing to that outcome and if the answer is 268 00:14:32,300 --> 00:14:33,800 yes, keep doing what you're doing. 269 00:14:33,800 --> 00:14:36,400 If the answer is no, stop doing what you're doing and start 270 00:14:36,400 --> 00:14:38,700 doing something that actually contributes to the outcome. 271 00:14:39,200 --> 00:14:42,100 And very often people get lost in their projects, you know, 272 00:14:42,100 --> 00:14:44,900 they lose their way. Way, because it's not clear. 273 00:14:44,900 --> 00:14:46,700 What? What's in the, The Box on the 274 00:14:46,700 --> 00:14:50,700 right of the process diagram, I was curious on your thoughts 275 00:14:50,700 --> 00:14:52,900 about optimism. Optimism bias. 276 00:14:52,900 --> 00:14:55,300 How you mitigate against that in a project? 277 00:14:56,500 --> 00:14:58,700 Yes. Also, we are seeing that. 278 00:14:58,700 --> 00:15:03,200 There are two big things that decide the fate of projects one 279 00:15:03,200 --> 00:15:06,600 in Psychology. The other is power and the 280 00:15:06,700 --> 00:15:11,500 optimism bias is psychology. So this is probably the most 281 00:15:11,500 --> 00:15:14,300 well established its cognitive bias and the most research 282 00:15:14,300 --> 00:15:18,400 cognitive bias that exists it again, very well documented that 283 00:15:19,000 --> 00:15:21,400 we are hard-wired to be optimists. 284 00:15:21,400 --> 00:15:24,500 And again, probably for good reason we needed to get up in 285 00:15:24,500 --> 00:15:28,900 the morning and get to Work and take care of our kids and and do 286 00:15:28,900 --> 00:15:33,200 projects and and nobody and certainly not me would deny 287 00:15:33,200 --> 00:15:36,000 that. We need optimism in our lives 288 00:15:36,000 --> 00:15:40,700 and we need optimism in project management and project delivery. 289 00:15:42,000 --> 00:15:46,400 However, optimism can be misplaced, it can really get you 290 00:15:46,400 --> 00:15:49,900 into bed situation. Like just imagine if you are 291 00:15:49,900 --> 00:15:53,600 getting on a plane and you hear the first pilot saying to the 292 00:15:53,600 --> 00:15:56,100 second pilot, I'm optimistic about the future. 293 00:15:56,300 --> 00:15:58,300 Situation. I don't know about you, but I 294 00:15:58,308 --> 00:16:00,800 don't want to be on that plane. I want to get off. 295 00:16:00,800 --> 00:16:03,100 I don't want a pilot who's optimistic about the future 296 00:16:03,100 --> 00:16:05,700 situation. I want the pilot whose they did 297 00:16:05,700 --> 00:16:09,100 certain and realistic about the fuel situation. 298 00:16:09,100 --> 00:16:10,700 Now, what's the fuel of products? 299 00:16:11,000 --> 00:16:13,800 The fuel projects is money and time. 300 00:16:14,400 --> 00:16:18,500 We need money and time to fuel our products to get to that box 301 00:16:18,500 --> 00:16:20,700 on the right, you know, of the diagram. 302 00:16:22,100 --> 00:16:26,400 And I don't want to work with project leaders that are To 303 00:16:26,400 --> 00:16:28,800 Mystic about the budgets. I don't want to work with 304 00:16:28,800 --> 00:16:33,000 project leaders that are optimistic about the schedule 305 00:16:33,400 --> 00:16:36,900 because I know that if that's the case that we have a huge 306 00:16:37,600 --> 00:16:40,200 risk of crashing just like the airplane would have if you 307 00:16:40,200 --> 00:16:42,100 optimistic about the future situation. 308 00:16:42,800 --> 00:16:44,900 Now I'm lucky. I get to work on a lot of 309 00:16:44,900 --> 00:16:47,600 projects because a lot of product making this error and 310 00:16:47,600 --> 00:16:50,600 then you know, once they made the error, I can hired into it 311 00:16:50,600 --> 00:16:52,800 too. Deep is the project and get rid 312 00:16:52,800 --> 00:16:57,100 of the optimism and and then see if we can, can we can we Salvage 313 00:16:57,100 --> 00:16:59,600 the prop? The project can be re-baseline 314 00:16:59,600 --> 00:17:02,600 it and then make sure we have a realistic schedule and a 315 00:17:02,600 --> 00:17:06,300 realistic budget for for delivering, the rest of the 316 00:17:06,300 --> 00:17:10,099 project successfully. And there are, you know, very 317 00:17:10,099 --> 00:17:12,800 good ways of doing this and they're different ways. 318 00:17:12,800 --> 00:17:16,400 So I've developed a method called reference class 319 00:17:16,400 --> 00:17:19,200 forecasting, but they also something called similarity 320 00:17:19,200 --> 00:17:24,400 based forecasting. They are, you know, where you 321 00:17:24,400 --> 00:17:27,000 can, you can before you even start the You can try to imagine 322 00:17:27,000 --> 00:17:31,400 everything that could go wrong with it and so that's called a 323 00:17:31,400 --> 00:17:33,400 pre-mortem. You actually pick the project 324 00:17:33,400 --> 00:17:35,300 apart before you start it and see. 325 00:17:35,300 --> 00:17:37,400 Okay. If everything goes wrong what 326 00:17:37,400 --> 00:17:40,000 could happen here and then you protect yourself against all 327 00:17:40,000 --> 00:17:41,600 these things. So there are many ways you can, 328 00:17:41,600 --> 00:17:44,800 you can deep is projects. It's called there's a common 329 00:17:44,800 --> 00:17:46,900 term for this. Now, that is emerging Court 330 00:17:46,900 --> 00:17:50,600 decision, hygiene. This is a kind of hygiene that 331 00:17:50,600 --> 00:17:54,300 you need to do on your decisions, to make them sound, 332 00:17:54,300 --> 00:17:57,200 you know, and healthy to make. A healthy decision. 333 00:17:57,200 --> 00:18:00,500 You need to Citizen hygiene D biasing is part of decision. 334 00:18:00,500 --> 00:18:03,800 Hygiene, we very much need that on Project. 335 00:18:04,500 --> 00:18:09,500 How important is the well, the politics side of things and how 336 00:18:09,500 --> 00:18:12,200 is the project manager or project leader to. 337 00:18:12,200 --> 00:18:16,300 You prepare yourself as best, you can to deal with that side 338 00:18:16,300 --> 00:18:18,600 of things. So we haven't. 339 00:18:18,600 --> 00:18:21,900 And if you ristic about that and we call it, builds your Bridges 340 00:18:21,900 --> 00:18:25,600 before you need them. It's too late to start 341 00:18:25,600 --> 00:18:28,200 developing stakeholder relations, when you need the 342 00:18:28,200 --> 00:18:31,400 stakeholders to help you, when things start going wrong with 343 00:18:31,400 --> 00:18:34,400 your project, you need to have built those relations. 344 00:18:34,400 --> 00:18:36,500 So those are the bridges that I'm talking about. 345 00:18:36,500 --> 00:18:39,400 You need to build those bridges before you need them. 346 00:18:39,600 --> 00:18:42,100 So that they are there when you need them and you can cross 347 00:18:42,100 --> 00:18:44,000 them, you can, you can communicate with the 348 00:18:44,000 --> 00:18:47,000 stakeholders and you can, you can ask them for help, you know, 349 00:18:47,000 --> 00:18:49,700 to, to get the project back on track. 350 00:18:50,500 --> 00:18:53,400 So that's that's the, the stakeholder management. 351 00:18:53,700 --> 00:18:55,800 Part of things. And it's really important, 352 00:18:55,800 --> 00:18:58,800 incredibly important. If we find that the many, many 353 00:18:58,800 --> 00:19:03,000 successful project leaders that we have studied for the book 354 00:19:03,100 --> 00:19:06,200 included, including interviewing them, but also studying their 355 00:19:06,200 --> 00:19:12,900 work, you know, directly. They all do this one successful. 356 00:19:13,500 --> 00:19:16,700 IT project manager who's managing multi-billion dollar 357 00:19:16,700 --> 00:19:22,300 and multibillion-pound IT projects, you know, said that he 358 00:19:22,300 --> 00:19:25,600 that when he's He's leading one of these shoot, I'll see 359 00:19:25,600 --> 00:19:27,700 projects, he's spending more than half his time, on 360 00:19:27,700 --> 00:19:30,500 stakeholder management. He's like a, he's like 361 00:19:32,100 --> 00:19:36,500 diplomats, you know, out there trying to make sure that the 362 00:19:36,500 --> 00:19:40,500 project has good relations with everybody and that's in his 363 00:19:40,500 --> 00:19:43,100 view, that's what he needs. To spend his time on and then 364 00:19:43,100 --> 00:19:45,700 he's bringing in people to do the more technical stuff and 365 00:19:45,700 --> 00:19:48,800 actually running the project. He's just out there way in front 366 00:19:48,800 --> 00:19:51,300 of the project, making sure that relations are good. 367 00:19:51,300 --> 00:19:54,300 So that when they hit a bump in the road, They actually have the 368 00:19:54,300 --> 00:19:56,500 relationship, they need in order to get over it. 369 00:19:56,700 --> 00:20:00,300 So that's, that's the way you can call it, like you say, 370 00:20:00,300 --> 00:20:03,500 managing politics because that's the sort of the micro politics 371 00:20:03,500 --> 00:20:06,400 of the project is, what do the stakeholders think about the 372 00:20:06,400 --> 00:20:07,900 project? Will they support it, or will 373 00:20:07,900 --> 00:20:10,300 they be against it? That's very important for the 374 00:20:10,300 --> 00:20:12,400 project leader, and the Project Lead. 375 00:20:12,400 --> 00:20:16,600 It seemed to be aware of. Of course, there are many other 376 00:20:16,600 --> 00:20:18,800 ways that politics can play a part. 377 00:20:18,800 --> 00:20:22,100 So one way that we talk about in the book is the is the politics 378 00:20:22,100 --> 00:20:26,000 of manipulating. The business case of France in 379 00:20:26,000 --> 00:20:29,100 order to get it approved and that's another type of bias we 380 00:20:29,100 --> 00:20:32,500 call it power buyers. So on one side we had such we 381 00:20:32,500 --> 00:20:34,700 have psychology that we talked about and there you have the 382 00:20:34,708 --> 00:20:38,600 cognitive bias is a which optimism bias is the most 383 00:20:38,600 --> 00:20:43,800 prominent on the power side, you have people deliberately 384 00:20:43,800 --> 00:20:46,400 manipulating things. So on the psychology size is non 385 00:20:46,400 --> 00:20:49,200 deliberate, people actually not conscious of their own biases or 386 00:20:49,200 --> 00:20:51,900 optimists are not conscious. Mostly not conscious, they're 387 00:20:52,200 --> 00:20:54,100 optimistic when they're making. Decisions. 388 00:20:54,100 --> 00:20:57,000 They actually think they're making realistic decisions when 389 00:20:57,000 --> 00:21:00,700 they are making optimistic decisions with political and 390 00:21:00,700 --> 00:21:02,600 Power Bars. It's different people actually 391 00:21:02,600 --> 00:21:04,800 know what they're doing. They are manipulate that it's 392 00:21:04,800 --> 00:21:06,800 called cooking. The numbers in the US they call 393 00:21:06,800 --> 00:21:11,000 it cooking the number so you cook, you cook the books and you 394 00:21:11,000 --> 00:21:12,500 cook, you cook the business case. 395 00:21:12,500 --> 00:21:16,300 So that the project looks cheap, you know it's much easier to get 396 00:21:16,300 --> 00:21:20,100 a project, proved that health and low budget and the same with 397 00:21:20,100 --> 00:21:23,300 schedule, you cook the schedule so that it looks short. 398 00:21:23,400 --> 00:21:25,700 It's much easier to get a project that proved that looks 399 00:21:25,700 --> 00:21:27,300 like it can be delivered quickly. 400 00:21:27,800 --> 00:21:32,000 So so that's that's power bias and it has exactly the same 401 00:21:32,000 --> 00:21:36,100 effect as psychological bias except it's deliberate. 402 00:21:36,400 --> 00:21:39,100 But these two buyers is the psychology psychological biases. 403 00:21:39,100 --> 00:21:43,200 And the power buyers is actually reinforce each other and create 404 00:21:43,200 --> 00:21:47,000 these very unhealthy business cases that we see for the vast 405 00:21:47,000 --> 00:21:50,200 majority and I cannot emphasize enough. 406 00:21:50,400 --> 00:21:52,800 How big that? Make sure it's your projects is 407 00:21:53,100 --> 00:21:57,000 that him Bad Business cases. Well, if you're an experienced, 408 00:21:57,000 --> 00:22:00,900 project manager project leader, do you become aware? 409 00:22:00,900 --> 00:22:03,700 Do you think that you'd have this optimism bias at the more 410 00:22:03,700 --> 00:22:05,000 projects you have under the belt? 411 00:22:05,000 --> 00:22:08,000 The more you realize that actually you need to be somehow 412 00:22:08,000 --> 00:22:12,500 turn your optimism dial down so it will it will keep happening 413 00:22:12,500 --> 00:22:15,900 to some degree but successful product leaders, do get the 414 00:22:15,900 --> 00:22:18,800 optimism bias and other buyers is under control, their 415 00:22:18,800 --> 00:22:22,000 anchoring anchoring anchoring in the wrong base rates. 416 00:22:22,000 --> 00:22:24,800 For instance, That's a classic, you know, that you totally 417 00:22:24,900 --> 00:22:27,400 Estimate the risks. That's also a type of optimism, 418 00:22:27,400 --> 00:22:29,900 right? And it's called the base rate 419 00:22:29,900 --> 00:22:33,300 fallacy, and it's again a very well-established fallacy and 420 00:22:33,300 --> 00:22:37,500 behavioral economics. And this is the kind of thing 421 00:22:37,500 --> 00:22:40,200 that said, successful product leaders, get over these big 422 00:22:40,200 --> 00:22:43,700 pitfalls, but that doesn't mean that nobody, I'm there. 423 00:22:43,700 --> 00:22:46,300 Nobody's perfect regarding psychological bias. 424 00:22:46,300 --> 00:22:48,400 It would basically mean that you would have to take your brain 425 00:22:48,400 --> 00:22:51,400 out and put another brain in there because it's hot. 426 00:22:51,400 --> 00:22:53,500 It's hot. It's truly hard wired for this. 427 00:22:53,500 --> 00:22:58,500 You can get rid of I would say about I would say 50 to 70% of 428 00:22:58,500 --> 00:23:01,400 your biases, if you are very, very good but but you will have 429 00:23:01,400 --> 00:23:05,300 those 30 to 50 percent bias still, you know, and and 430 00:23:05,300 --> 00:23:09,500 Kahneman argue something like the same in his book thinking 431 00:23:09,500 --> 00:23:12,400 fast and slow and other Publications that that he did. 432 00:23:12,400 --> 00:23:16,200 So I think that's again also a pretty solid thing but it 433 00:23:16,200 --> 00:23:19,100 doesn't mean that it's not worth the biasing, it really is and 434 00:23:19,300 --> 00:23:23,000 what I find with with really successful product leaders and 435 00:23:23,200 --> 00:23:24,800 I've worked, I've been very fortunate. 436 00:23:24,900 --> 00:23:26,900 We work with many for many, many years. 437 00:23:26,900 --> 00:23:30,000 And, and some of them we interviewed for the book and new 438 00:23:30,000 --> 00:23:32,900 ones, we interviewed for the book, and I find they all have 439 00:23:32,900 --> 00:23:37,000 this really attractive disposition and their 440 00:23:37,000 --> 00:23:40,900 personalities are being realistic optimists. 441 00:23:41,000 --> 00:23:44,800 So they extremely rigid, they're really realistic about what are 442 00:23:44,800 --> 00:23:47,000 the odds in the fields that we are playing in there. 443 00:23:47,000 --> 00:23:49,600 Like, somebody going to the casino and totally understanding 444 00:23:49,600 --> 00:23:52,900 the odds, not being optimistic about you win on the roulette, 445 00:23:52,900 --> 00:23:56,100 you know, if you know what the real odds are But at the same 446 00:23:56,100 --> 00:23:59,600 time having an optimistic can-do attitude. 447 00:23:59,600 --> 00:24:02,500 You know of course we can find a way to get this project done. 448 00:24:02,500 --> 00:24:05,900 If we have this realism at the outset we are not building a pie 449 00:24:05,900 --> 00:24:08,200 in the sky we're building something real. 450 00:24:08,300 --> 00:24:11,200 We know what the laws of physics are and the laws of Economics 451 00:24:11,200 --> 00:24:15,000 Etc loss of organization. We abide by it. 452 00:24:15,000 --> 00:24:19,800 All we think slow, we really think what we about what we're 453 00:24:19,800 --> 00:24:21,800 doing. We iterate, as we call it in the 454 00:24:21,808 --> 00:24:22,900 book. We experiment. 455 00:24:22,900 --> 00:24:26,300 We do things over and over. And over and over again, in 456 00:24:26,300 --> 00:24:30,000 order to learn before we start building in the real world, so 457 00:24:30,000 --> 00:24:32,800 that we don't make the mistake that we mistakes that we do 458 00:24:32,800 --> 00:24:35,500 during the experimentation on the ground. 459 00:24:35,500 --> 00:24:37,800 Once we are building and it's expensive. 460 00:24:37,800 --> 00:24:40,200 That's how the successful project leaders work and it's 461 00:24:40,200 --> 00:24:42,600 really stimulating to see people working like that. 462 00:24:43,200 --> 00:24:46,000 So I mean, one of the piece of advice in your book is that if 463 00:24:46,000 --> 00:24:49,200 you're embarking on a project that you should try and find the 464 00:24:49,200 --> 00:24:52,600 most experienced people to be on the team and to lead that 465 00:24:52,600 --> 00:24:57,400 project, What is that? Not common place. 466 00:24:58,700 --> 00:25:02,000 It doesn't happen that often it happens, but it doesn't happen 467 00:25:02,000 --> 00:25:04,800 nearly often enough. Unfortunately, people don't 468 00:25:04,800 --> 00:25:07,200 think enough about it. That's another of these, you 469 00:25:07,200 --> 00:25:11,600 know, thinking fast things that hey, we have a leader here, he 470 00:25:11,600 --> 00:25:13,200 or, she can probably do this project. 471 00:25:13,200 --> 00:25:16,400 Let's get going, you know, and instead of spending the time of 472 00:25:16,400 --> 00:25:21,400 thinking about what kind of need to do, we need here and we have 473 00:25:21,400 --> 00:25:24,300 a heuristic for that to we call it higher and master builder. 474 00:25:24,300 --> 00:25:27,600 So we call these very successful project leaders for Master 475 00:25:27,600 --> 00:25:31,900 Builders and and the term comes from the Middle Ages, you know, 476 00:25:31,900 --> 00:25:36,200 where you call the famous Architects and Builders who 477 00:25:36,200 --> 00:25:40,100 built the cathedrals of Europe. So the famous Cathedrals that we 478 00:25:40,100 --> 00:25:44,700 have and still admire today were built by people who really knew 479 00:25:44,700 --> 00:25:47,400 what they were doing mostly and and, and they got the name 480 00:25:47,400 --> 00:25:49,900 Master Builders. So we decided to use that name 481 00:25:49,900 --> 00:25:53,000 for today, you know, in the Contemporary world, for people 482 00:25:53,400 --> 00:25:55,900 who really good at delivering projects, no matter what, type 483 00:25:55,900 --> 00:25:58,200 of products they don't have to be Cathedrals, you know, they 484 00:25:58,200 --> 00:26:01,100 don't Have to be buildings. It can be like, we talked about 485 00:26:01,100 --> 00:26:04,800 Master Builders at Pixar, for instance, to take an example. 486 00:26:05,200 --> 00:26:09,300 So so that's what we call them and they are not being hired 487 00:26:09,300 --> 00:26:11,200 enough. I was ours to give you an 488 00:26:11,200 --> 00:26:15,100 example. I was an expert witness of on a 489 00:26:15,700 --> 00:26:19,800 big hydroelectric, Dam in Canada, that had gone terribly 490 00:26:19,800 --> 00:26:22,600 wrong. So, the usual pattern, huge cost 491 00:26:22,600 --> 00:26:25,700 overruns, huge delays, not delivering what we were supposed 492 00:26:25,700 --> 00:26:28,300 to deliver and not at the time, it was supposed to do it. 493 00:26:28,500 --> 00:26:29,500 Etc. Etc. 494 00:26:30,000 --> 00:26:35,100 So they decided to have, you know, an inquiry headed by 495 00:26:35,900 --> 00:26:38,400 preeminent judge, you know, to really serious. 496 00:26:39,300 --> 00:26:43,300 And with, you know, with the Firepower that you get, when you 497 00:26:43,308 --> 00:26:46,900 can pull people in and question them, and people have to answer 498 00:26:48,800 --> 00:26:52,300 and I was, I was an expert witness on that and it turned 499 00:26:52,300 --> 00:26:57,800 out during the inquiry that People who were hired to build 500 00:26:57,800 --> 00:26:59,600 the dam had never built a dam before. 501 00:27:00,000 --> 00:27:03,300 Never can you imagine this is a multibillion-dollar, 502 00:27:03,300 --> 00:27:06,200 hydroelectric Dam and you decide to choose somebody to printed 503 00:27:06,200 --> 00:27:10,100 who's never built a dam before. And and now this is one thing 504 00:27:10,600 --> 00:27:12,600 and it's okay. And this is actually what got me 505 00:27:12,600 --> 00:27:17,200 started? Researching mega-projects was I 506 00:27:17,208 --> 00:27:20,700 was thinking, is this normal? You have these crazy stories 507 00:27:20,700 --> 00:27:26,400 like the one I just told you From from you know one off Mega 508 00:27:26,400 --> 00:27:28,900 projects in different places around the world and I started 509 00:27:28,900 --> 00:27:31,500 wondering is this normal? Is there a pattern here? 510 00:27:31,700 --> 00:27:34,000 We had one in Denmark, that similarly went wrong for the 511 00:27:34,000 --> 00:27:37,100 same reasons, actually. So what they did in Canada was 512 00:27:37,100 --> 00:27:40,100 they figured, you know, it's actually difficult right now to 513 00:27:40,100 --> 00:27:43,700 find somebody who can build a dam like this in Canada but we 514 00:27:43,700 --> 00:27:45,500 are doing a lot of oil and gas projects. 515 00:27:45,500 --> 00:27:47,800 So we had to have a lot of project leaders who are used to 516 00:27:47,800 --> 00:27:50,900 building multi-billion dollar, oil, and gas products and 517 00:27:50,900 --> 00:27:53,500 listen, you know how difficult can It be, if you know how to 518 00:27:53,500 --> 00:27:55,600 build one, big project, you know, how to build another big 519 00:27:55,600 --> 00:27:57,500 project. So that's highest hire somebody 520 00:27:57,500 --> 00:28:00,100 from oil and gas and let them build the dam. 521 00:28:01,100 --> 00:28:04,900 Now that's what I mean by this is not slow thinking that's for 522 00:28:04,900 --> 00:28:08,100 sure, that's fast thinking, let's find a quick solution and 523 00:28:08,100 --> 00:28:10,900 it costs billions of dollars. That's what happens you know 524 00:28:10,900 --> 00:28:14,900 when you do it like that. So yeah, so it's a kind of 525 00:28:14,900 --> 00:28:18,300 laziness of not wanting to go through the slow thinking and 526 00:28:18,300 --> 00:28:21,100 really do everything you can to find the Master Builders. 527 00:28:21,100 --> 00:28:23,600 But there's also a real problem and that is there's not enough 528 00:28:23,600 --> 00:28:26,800 Talent around. So the world is building more 529 00:28:26,800 --> 00:28:29,700 and more big projects at an incredible rate right now. 530 00:28:29,700 --> 00:28:32,500 So we are just getting More and bigger projects across the 531 00:28:32,500 --> 00:28:35,900 board, across the panel. So there's a lot of demand for 532 00:28:35,900 --> 00:28:38,300 people who can do this. So they are not enough as simple 533 00:28:38,300 --> 00:28:42,200 as that. They demand far outstrips the 534 00:28:42,200 --> 00:28:46,000 supply of talent in this field. And that means you actually 535 00:28:46,000 --> 00:28:48,300 might have to grow your own talent, but then you have to be 536 00:28:48,300 --> 00:28:50,000 aware of it. You can't just assume that 537 00:28:50,000 --> 00:28:52,500 whoever you hire can build the project if you have, if you are 538 00:28:52,500 --> 00:28:55,100 hiring people who doesn't have the talent that you need for 539 00:28:55,100 --> 00:28:58,300 building your product and that assumption is often made and 540 00:28:58,300 --> 00:29:02,300 that's another heuristic we have don't assume Verify, and we find 541 00:29:02,300 --> 00:29:05,200 that. You know, big products are 542 00:29:05,200 --> 00:29:08,000 littered with assumption that that are wrong assumptions that 543 00:29:08,000 --> 00:29:11,800 are wrong, you know, like one thing after another is assumed 544 00:29:11,800 --> 00:29:15,300 and nobody bothers to spend the time to verify, whether it's 545 00:29:15,300 --> 00:29:18,400 actually the case and therefore the products go wrong very 546 00:29:18,400 --> 00:29:20,900 quickly with because they have built on wrong assumptions. 547 00:29:22,100 --> 00:29:25,000 What advice would you give to project professionals who are 548 00:29:25,000 --> 00:29:28,900 just starting out in their career, about what they need to 549 00:29:28,900 --> 00:29:34,600 focus on what they need to do in order to manage their projects 550 00:29:34,600 --> 00:29:37,500 successfully and to the government and to become 551 00:29:37,500 --> 00:29:40,000 successful project leaders in the future. 552 00:29:40,700 --> 00:29:45,300 So, first of all, it is a great time to be in the project 553 00:29:45,300 --> 00:29:49,200 management and product leadership field because there's 554 00:29:49,200 --> 00:29:51,700 a lot of demand and it's very easy to get a job. 555 00:29:51,900 --> 00:29:56,400 And I also encourage my students, you know, it to choose 556 00:29:56,400 --> 00:29:59,000 this field and and, of course, choose the areas that are going 557 00:29:59,000 --> 00:30:00,700 up. So I actually have a lot of 558 00:30:00,700 --> 00:30:06,400 students who are concerned about being in oil and gas or oil and 559 00:30:06,400 --> 00:30:08,400 gas is a huge field in major product. 560 00:30:08,400 --> 00:30:12,400 It's been around forever for decades and decades and decades. 561 00:30:13,000 --> 00:30:17,500 And now, you know things are not right now. 562 00:30:17,500 --> 00:30:20,400 They're going well because the prices of oil up again, but if 563 00:30:20,400 --> 00:30:24,900 you sort of look at it at The last, the last 10 years and the 564 00:30:24,900 --> 00:30:29,300 next 10, 20 years, it's probably not the field to be in and like 565 00:30:29,300 --> 00:30:31,600 I tell my students, why do you want to be in an elevator that's 566 00:30:31,600 --> 00:30:34,100 going down if you can be on one that's going up, you know? 567 00:30:34,100 --> 00:30:37,600 And they are all the areas and it's it's easy to give jobs in 568 00:30:37,600 --> 00:30:39,500 other areas. So that's one thing I would say 569 00:30:40,100 --> 00:30:43,500 this is great feels to get into but to be concerned and think 570 00:30:43,500 --> 00:30:47,300 about things slow about which of the many different areas. 571 00:30:47,300 --> 00:30:50,000 Different project types that exist is that you actually want 572 00:30:50,000 --> 00:30:54,700 to do and I will Right now I would advise against going into 573 00:30:54,700 --> 00:30:57,300 oil and gas, I would advise against going into nuclear 574 00:30:57,300 --> 00:31:00,700 unless you are on a team that's trying to develop SMR small 575 00:31:00,700 --> 00:31:03,600 modular reactors which might have a future but we don't know. 576 00:31:03,600 --> 00:31:07,800 Nucleus is very unproven technology incredibly as it's 577 00:31:08,100 --> 00:31:11,400 incredible as it sounds because you've been doing nuclear for 50 578 00:31:11,400 --> 00:31:16,400 years and at least and but it's still unproven and it doesn't 579 00:31:16,400 --> 00:31:18,000 work. It's way too expensive. 580 00:31:18,100 --> 00:31:22,500 That's just the effect of nuclear right now is Only 581 00:31:22,500 --> 00:31:24,400 economics. Nothing ideological about 582 00:31:24,400 --> 00:31:28,300 whether nucleus good or bad or dangerous, or not. 583 00:31:28,700 --> 00:31:32,600 It's, it's about economics and it's too expensive. 584 00:31:32,600 --> 00:31:34,500 It's that simple. So that's one thing. 585 00:31:34,500 --> 00:31:40,400 Be careful about what you choose and then after that, you know, 586 00:31:40,400 --> 00:31:43,100 if you are young and entering the field, make sure you get to 587 00:31:43,100 --> 00:31:45,100 work on a project where you leaders are not. 588 00:31:45,100 --> 00:31:47,100 The kind of people that I talked about in Canada. 589 00:31:47,100 --> 00:31:49,400 They they are people who have never tried to build the project 590 00:31:49,400 --> 00:31:51,500 before and they're doing it. That's not what you want to 591 00:31:51,508 --> 00:31:53,700 learn. How to do you want to find a 592 00:31:53,700 --> 00:31:55,700 master builder? And then you want to work with 593 00:31:55,700 --> 00:31:58,600 that master builder and watch that master builder work. 594 00:31:58,900 --> 00:32:03,300 So that you can that you can be a kind of a net princess or just 595 00:32:03,300 --> 00:32:06,100 watch things and work on a team. You know, that really works 596 00:32:06,100 --> 00:32:08,500 because it is well lit. That's the kind of team you want 597 00:32:08,500 --> 00:32:12,400 to get on and not on the majority of teams that are 598 00:32:12,400 --> 00:32:15,400 learning by making mistakes. You know, I mean, you have to 599 00:32:15,400 --> 00:32:18,600 make some mistakes but it's much more efficient to be on a team 600 00:32:18,900 --> 00:32:21,300 that is led by somebody who's successful. 601 00:32:21,300 --> 00:32:24,300 So that's the The second thing I would do, if I was starting a 602 00:32:24,308 --> 00:32:28,500 career now and that's what I advise my students to do. 603 00:32:29,600 --> 00:32:35,400 Now, back to the thing about nuclear, So we started 25 604 00:32:35,400 --> 00:32:39,100 different product types in the book regarding their performance 605 00:32:39,100 --> 00:32:43,100 and nuclear comes out at the very bottom with it projects 606 00:32:43,100 --> 00:32:45,800 actually. And with hydroelectric dams and 607 00:32:45,800 --> 00:32:48,500 with storage some nuclear wastes, these are the worst 608 00:32:48,500 --> 00:32:53,100 performing projects in terms of being Black Swan prone, meaning 609 00:32:53,400 --> 00:32:57,900 that they have extreme outliers in regards, of course, and cost 610 00:32:57,900 --> 00:33:01,000 overruns and schedule and schedule over on etcetera. 611 00:33:02,500 --> 00:33:07,500 And they are difficult to manage and they end up being very 612 00:33:07,500 --> 00:33:09,000 expensive. That's what we can do. 613 00:33:09,000 --> 00:33:10,900 We can't afford it. And if we're going to solve the 614 00:33:10,900 --> 00:33:15,000 climate crisis, if we if we right now, we're deciding to 615 00:33:15,000 --> 00:33:17,500 focus on those projects. We wouldn't be able to do it in 616 00:33:17,500 --> 00:33:21,100 time, 2030 and 2050, which are the timelines for solving, the 617 00:33:21,100 --> 00:33:23,400 climate crisis, just would not be made. 618 00:33:23,400 --> 00:33:26,700 So, you know, there was no way to do it, it's way too slow even 619 00:33:26,700 --> 00:33:30,400 in China and so we have that, we have something that be called a 620 00:33:30,400 --> 00:33:33,600 natural experiment in China where Anna has really tried to 621 00:33:33,600 --> 00:33:39,200 ramp up all forms of power production that don't produce 622 00:33:39,700 --> 00:33:43,600 CO2, and of course, nuclear is one of them and they just can't 623 00:33:43,600 --> 00:33:46,000 ramp it up, it's too difficult. Even in China, where you don't 624 00:33:46,000 --> 00:33:48,600 have the safety and environmental regulations that 625 00:33:48,600 --> 00:33:53,200 you have in countries like the US and the UK and Europe. 626 00:33:53,800 --> 00:33:56,600 The Chinese can't do it. And we take that to mean that 627 00:33:56,600 --> 00:33:58,400 you just can't do it. It's not doable. 628 00:33:58,500 --> 00:34:02,600 Nobody can do it right now. Luckily, this is actually Where 629 00:34:02,600 --> 00:34:05,900 the focus is in solving the climate crisis, the focus is on 630 00:34:05,900 --> 00:34:12,400 Renewables now and especially solar and and wind are the two 631 00:34:12,900 --> 00:34:16,800 best performing products of the 25 product types. 632 00:34:16,800 --> 00:34:20,400 That we studied they way out there in terms of good 633 00:34:20,400 --> 00:34:25,800 performance, they are actually outliers that it's crazy. 634 00:34:26,100 --> 00:34:30,500 But everage practice in product management is a disaster and 635 00:34:30,500 --> 00:34:33,000 good practice, good practices and Outlier. 636 00:34:33,000 --> 00:34:36,000 It's the exact opposite of what you usually say, when you talk 637 00:34:36,000 --> 00:34:37,800 about these things. But it's a fact, you know, and 638 00:34:37,800 --> 00:34:39,800 it's document in the book for the first time. 639 00:34:39,800 --> 00:34:42,800 This is actually a brand new research result that we have is 640 00:34:42,800 --> 00:34:45,600 comparing these 25, different product type, there's a nice 641 00:34:45,600 --> 00:34:50,400 diagram, that, that shows it in in one overview, which products 642 00:34:50,400 --> 00:34:52,199 are performing well and which are not. 643 00:34:52,400 --> 00:34:55,500 And luckily, you know, the projects that we need in order 644 00:34:55,500 --> 00:34:59,100 to solve the climate crisis are doing extremely well and they 645 00:34:59,100 --> 00:35:01,400 perform really well. They are done really fast and we 646 00:35:01,400 --> 00:35:05,600 also What the reason is, you know, for this, which is the 647 00:35:05,600 --> 00:35:08,000 modularity is in it. Exactly. 648 00:35:08,000 --> 00:35:11,700 So that's why, that's why I use the term Lego, so I'm Dana 649 00:35:11,700 --> 00:35:17,100 Sande. Lego is is a Danish brand is 650 00:35:17,100 --> 00:35:19,800 the, it's the biggest toy manufacturer in the world now 651 00:35:19,800 --> 00:35:24,000 and with the test with the popularity of Lego and why are 652 00:35:24,000 --> 00:35:27,800 they go so important? So, so popular, and an important 653 00:35:27,800 --> 00:35:29,400 in kids lives, I grew up with him. 654 00:35:29,400 --> 00:35:32,100 I remember stepping on them as a child and hurting my feet, you 655 00:35:32,100 --> 00:35:35,400 know. No, all over our house and I 656 00:35:35,400 --> 00:35:38,600 find that that no matter where I go in the world and talk about 657 00:35:38,600 --> 00:35:41,500 Lego, people understand what it is and that's why I like to use 658 00:35:41,500 --> 00:35:44,600 it as a metaphor for what it is. That works in project management 659 00:35:44,600 --> 00:35:47,400 is exactly the process that you can build. 660 00:35:47,400 --> 00:35:51,000 Like you build it with Legos and I'm saying the sound of a 661 00:35:51,000 --> 00:35:54,100 successful product. It is click, click click. 662 00:35:54,700 --> 00:35:57,700 It's like putting building blocks together like you put 663 00:35:57,700 --> 00:36:00,000 Legos together. Click click click and if you 664 00:36:00,008 --> 00:36:07,100 look at it look at what a wind Wind Farm is you know it's a 665 00:36:07,100 --> 00:36:10,900 bunch of wind turbines and each wind turbine consists of Four 666 00:36:10,900 --> 00:36:13,100 Legos. So there's one Lego that is the 667 00:36:13,100 --> 00:36:15,800 foundation, there's one Lego that is the tower. 668 00:36:15,800 --> 00:36:19,600 There's one Lego that is nestled which is where the where the 669 00:36:19,600 --> 00:36:23,000 turbine itself is sitting and then they are the wings or the 670 00:36:23,000 --> 00:36:27,300 blades you know that you Click on the cells so you click the 671 00:36:27,300 --> 00:36:30,300 tile on the foundation to click the nacelle on the tower. 672 00:36:30,500 --> 00:36:33,800 You click the the blades on the Nestle and you have a wind 673 00:36:33,800 --> 00:36:36,200 turbine and it's actually ready to produce electricity 674 00:36:36,200 --> 00:36:41,600 immediately. And these giant wind turbines 675 00:36:41,600 --> 00:36:44,400 are put up in less than 24 hours now. 676 00:36:44,700 --> 00:36:48,100 Multibillion-dollar wind farms used to take years to to do. 677 00:36:48,100 --> 00:36:50,900 Now they're built in seven months, seven months for a 678 00:36:50,908 --> 00:36:53,100 multi-billion dollar project is unheard of. 679 00:36:53,400 --> 00:36:56,000 That's exactly what we need in order to solve the climate 680 00:36:56,000 --> 00:36:58,200 crisis. And that's exactly thinking, 681 00:36:58,200 --> 00:37:01,900 slow acting fast. You know, in a nutshell, how 682 00:37:01,900 --> 00:37:06,300 optimistic do you feel about the way Mega projects or projects 683 00:37:06,300 --> 00:37:07,700 are going to be delivered in the future? 684 00:37:07,800 --> 00:37:11,200 Future developed Mystic that there will be greater success. 685 00:37:12,000 --> 00:37:14,300 I'm pretty optimistic. I mean, this is one of the 686 00:37:14,300 --> 00:37:17,200 things we discovered while doing the book that I find that 687 00:37:17,200 --> 00:37:20,000 there's more reason to be optimistic than I thought there 688 00:37:20,000 --> 00:37:21,600 was. And I was already pretty 689 00:37:21,600 --> 00:37:24,500 optimistic, you know, because I mean, I've seen a lot of things 690 00:37:24,500 --> 00:37:28,300 going well on the projects that I've been working on, and I'm 691 00:37:28,300 --> 00:37:30,600 seeing that spreading, there's more and more interest. 692 00:37:30,600 --> 00:37:32,800 They didn't used to be much interest about these things. 693 00:37:32,800 --> 00:37:35,800 Now, there's massive interest, everything everywhere in the 694 00:37:35,800 --> 00:37:37,700 world for the simple reason that we are doing. 695 00:37:38,100 --> 00:37:41,100 So many and so large project like we talked about earlier. 696 00:37:41,600 --> 00:37:45,300 So so yeah I'm optimistic and I'm especially optimistic about 697 00:37:45,300 --> 00:37:50,800 the discovery that it's actually is already happening it. 698 00:37:50,800 --> 00:37:55,100 It's amazing to see how fast Renewables are being built out 699 00:37:55,200 --> 00:37:58,000 and I want to emphasize and people often think when I'm - or 700 00:37:58,000 --> 00:38:00,700 nuclear, and I'm positive on Renewables that. 701 00:38:00,700 --> 00:38:02,700 That's something ideological and political. 702 00:38:02,700 --> 00:38:05,900 It's I'm an economic geographer. I'm looking on the at the 703 00:38:05,900 --> 00:38:08,400 economics of this and this is pure Early based on the 704 00:38:08,400 --> 00:38:12,000 economics, solar and wind are dirt cheap and they're getting 705 00:38:12,000 --> 00:38:16,200 cheaper every year. Nuclear is incredibly expensive 706 00:38:16,200 --> 00:38:18,100 and it's getting more and more expensive. 707 00:38:18,100 --> 00:38:20,900 The more we try to build it because we can't figure out how 708 00:38:20,900 --> 00:38:23,500 to build it right and how to build a cheap, you know, and 709 00:38:23,500 --> 00:38:27,300 therefore the price is going up, well, any Economist who gets 710 00:38:27,300 --> 00:38:29,400 that information? Will know that one of these 711 00:38:29,400 --> 00:38:32,400 things is not going to work and the other is and it's very clear 712 00:38:32,400 --> 00:38:35,700 which is which here and that's that's a very positive thing 713 00:38:35,700 --> 00:38:39,000 that we are actually Lucky in the Even that we are in where 714 00:38:39,000 --> 00:38:42,300 we're solving the energy crisis is probably the most pressing 715 00:38:42,300 --> 00:38:48,000 problem that we have ever had as a species that we just happen to 716 00:38:48,000 --> 00:38:51,700 have a technology that is spreading like wildfire right 717 00:38:51,700 --> 00:38:53,400 now. Even the most optimistic 718 00:38:53,400 --> 00:38:58,400 organizations like Greenpeace and and you know Green 719 00:38:58,400 --> 00:39:01,000 organizations for wind and solar and so on. 720 00:39:02,000 --> 00:39:04,800 Underestimated how fast it would develop that. 721 00:39:04,800 --> 00:39:07,000 They actually thought it would take much longer than it has 722 00:39:07,000 --> 00:39:08,700 done even to this date, you know? 723 00:39:08,700 --> 00:39:13,200 And, and instead of taking a generation to do it, it has 724 00:39:13,200 --> 00:39:16,000 taken like 19 years to get to where we thought it would take a 725 00:39:16,008 --> 00:39:18,600 generation. So what we thought would take 25 726 00:39:18,600 --> 00:39:20,400 years as has taken nine to ten years. 727 00:39:20,400 --> 00:39:23,200 So that's a really good reason to be optimistic and that's Just 728 00:39:23,200 --> 00:39:25,500 Energy. There's there are lots of other 729 00:39:25,500 --> 00:39:27,500 reasons to be optimistic in other areas. 730 00:39:28,400 --> 00:39:31,800 Thank you so much. I think we've really gotta cross 731 00:39:31,800 --> 00:39:35,100 what your book is about. So I would recommend this to get 732 00:39:35,100 --> 00:39:37,800 their hands on a copy how big things get done, and that's 733 00:39:37,800 --> 00:39:40,300 happened. I'm out now by in McMillan, so 734 00:39:41,000 --> 00:39:44,300 thank you again for your time. It was it's been a lovely 735 00:39:44,300 --> 00:39:46,100 speaking to you. My pleasure. 736 00:39:46,100 --> 00:39:54,900 Thank you for having me again. Thanks again to vent for joining 737 00:39:54,900 --> 00:39:57,500 us and to you for listening to this episode of the APM 738 00:39:57,500 --> 00:39:59,700 podcasts. Don't forget to look out for 739 00:39:59,700 --> 00:40:02,400 more episodes or to rate and review us wherever you get your 740 00:40:02,400 --> 00:40:05,000 podcasts. We welcome you to get in touch 741 00:40:05,000 --> 00:40:08,900 with your comments feedback and suggestions by e-mailing us at a 742 00:40:08,900 --> 00:40:12,700 p.m. podcast at think publishing .co.uk. 743 00:40:13,200 --> 00:40:16,700 This podcast has been brought to you by APM the chartered body 744 00:40:16,700 --> 00:40:20,100 for the project profession. For more information on a p.m. 745 00:40:20,100 --> 00:40:22,600 visit, a p.m. Dot org.uk.