1 00:00:09,200 --> 00:00:13,560 Hi, I'm James and I'm Anthony. And this is the grand return of 2 00:00:13,560 --> 00:00:17,280 words and numbers. And it's been a while since we 3 00:00:17,280 --> 00:00:18,880 how? Long has it been James. 4 00:00:19,280 --> 00:00:27,000 It has been so long, so long that two cabinet members have 5 00:00:27,000 --> 00:00:30,280 been fired. We involved ourselves in a war 6 00:00:30,280 --> 00:00:33,600 in Iran that we've been told we've won at least five times. 7 00:00:34,520 --> 00:00:37,680 JD Vance has released a book about his conversion to 8 00:00:37,680 --> 00:00:41,560 Catholicism which features a Protestant church on the cover. 9 00:00:42,440 --> 00:00:46,920 A high-ranking FEMA official says he was teleported 50 miles 10 00:00:46,920 --> 00:00:52,320 to a Waffle House. The entire Afroman legal saga 11 00:00:52,480 --> 00:00:56,080 has unfolded. JD Vance back to him has 12 00:00:56,080 --> 00:01:01,680 declared that aliens are actually demons, and Christine 13 00:01:01,680 --> 00:01:05,239 Umm's husband has been outed as a particular sort of 14 00:01:05,239 --> 00:01:09,520 crossdresser. Oh, and Donald Trump today in an 15 00:01:09,520 --> 00:01:13,000 Easter message we're recording on Easter Sunday offered praise 16 00:01:13,000 --> 00:01:17,760 to Allah in a profanity. So truth social message to the 17 00:01:17,760 --> 00:01:21,680 Iranian leadership. But on the plus side, Ant on the 18 00:01:21,680 --> 00:01:26,480 plus side, you can now, for the first time in 50 years, eat fish 19 00:01:27,200 --> 00:01:29,040 that were fished out of the Hudson River. 20 00:01:29,680 --> 00:01:33,960 That, my friend, is how long it has been since our last episode. 21 00:01:34,920 --> 00:01:37,280 Wow. And it doesn't look like that. 22 00:01:37,280 --> 00:01:40,920 That feels like 3 years. That feels like 3 years worth of 23 00:01:40,920 --> 00:01:42,760 nonsense. But it's only been 4 weeks. 24 00:01:43,480 --> 00:01:45,360 Yeah. And here we are. 25 00:01:45,840 --> 00:01:48,960 Here, here we are. I I want to hear more about the 26 00:01:48,960 --> 00:01:52,520 guy who claims he was teleported to a Waffle House. 27 00:01:52,800 --> 00:01:55,400 Oh, you, you really don't you, you really don't. 28 00:01:55,400 --> 00:01:58,200 It's as it's as idiotic as it sounds, but but anyway, if. 29 00:01:58,360 --> 00:02:01,000 If aliens are going to teleport you, don't you think they'd 30 00:02:01,120 --> 00:02:04,440 teleport you somewhere more important than waffle? 31 00:02:04,440 --> 00:02:06,640 House. But as Shitty Vance told us, and 32 00:02:06,680 --> 00:02:09,520 aliens are demons, so you know, wouldn't they teleport them 33 00:02:09,520 --> 00:02:12,640 straight to the bowels of hell? I guess, yeah, right. 34 00:02:13,360 --> 00:02:15,840 I just expect like a Ruth's Chris or something. 35 00:02:16,360 --> 00:02:20,840 Yeah, but that would be nice. Strip club maybe whole car right 36 00:02:20,840 --> 00:02:24,520 inside the the club 'cause he was teleported in his car. 37 00:02:25,640 --> 00:02:29,760 Oh, his car as well, OK. So he could get home, you know, 38 00:02:29,760 --> 00:02:32,720 the 50 miles. Anyway, I could tell by the 39 00:02:32,720 --> 00:02:33,560 look. Let's not. 40 00:02:33,600 --> 00:02:36,200 Even go there. By the look on your face, it's 41 00:02:36,200 --> 00:02:39,800 time for me to say what's new and exciting in your world this 42 00:02:39,800 --> 00:02:41,720 weekend. Well. 43 00:02:42,880 --> 00:02:46,120 I ran across this thing on NPR. I wasn't paying attention to 44 00:02:46,120 --> 00:02:52,240 this, but the NPR thing grabbed my attention that the Supreme 45 00:02:52,240 --> 00:02:56,800 Court was hearing the arguments in the birthright citizenship 46 00:02:56,800 --> 00:03:01,480 case, and President Trump was the first sitting president to 47 00:03:01,480 --> 00:03:06,600 attend a Supreme Court. What did you call that? 48 00:03:08,920 --> 00:03:11,280 Case hearings, he. He. 49 00:03:12,080 --> 00:03:13,760 Shouldn't he should never been there? 50 00:03:14,400 --> 00:03:20,480 Yeah, yeah. It seemed, it seemed odd to have 51 00:03:20,480 --> 00:03:22,880 a president, a sitting president. 52 00:03:22,880 --> 00:03:26,320 There is if you're mixing the branches in a way that they 53 00:03:26,320 --> 00:03:29,920 shouldn't be mixed, or I mean. He was clearly there to to apply 54 00:03:29,920 --> 00:03:34,280 pressure. Yeah, well, apparently it wasn't 55 00:03:34,280 --> 00:03:38,400 very successful because even the conservative justices, from what 56 00:03:38,400 --> 00:03:41,320 I've read, seemed not to be buying his argument. 57 00:03:41,920 --> 00:03:43,680 Yeah, it looks like he's got it. Was this one too? 58 00:03:44,640 --> 00:03:47,480 And it got me thinking about this. 59 00:03:47,480 --> 00:03:53,000 So you could probably name some other things, but just off the 60 00:03:53,000 --> 00:03:56,760 top of my head, the big, the big controversial things that 61 00:03:56,920 --> 00:03:59,600 President Trump has been involved with the birthright 62 00:03:59,600 --> 00:04:05,760 citizenship business where he wants to revoke citizenship from 63 00:04:06,040 --> 00:04:09,680 people who were born here of parents who were here illegally 64 00:04:09,680 --> 00:04:15,480 or on long term visas. That the tariffs, the Iran war 65 00:04:16,959 --> 00:04:25,320 and the the natural inclination is to point to him and say, yo, 66 00:04:26,160 --> 00:04:30,600 look at all of this stuff, it's because of him and he shouldn't 67 00:04:30,600 --> 00:04:33,320 be doing this. And I don't want to let him off 68 00:04:33,320 --> 00:04:35,120 the hook. But at the same time, I want to 69 00:04:35,120 --> 00:04:40,000 make sure that that Americans who are concerned about this 70 00:04:40,000 --> 00:04:43,960 sort of thing focus their concern correctly. 71 00:04:44,560 --> 00:04:50,640 And I think we aren't giving nearly enough attention to 72 00:04:50,960 --> 00:04:55,400 Congress. So this question of birthright 73 00:04:55,400 --> 00:05:00,040 citizenship, this should be if it's not a constitutional 74 00:05:00,040 --> 00:05:03,440 question, it's clearly within the purview of Congress. 75 00:05:05,360 --> 00:05:07,560 And if you look at the 14th Amendment right, at the very 76 00:05:07,560 --> 00:05:10,160 end, it says Congress can enforce this with appropriate 77 00:05:10,160 --> 00:05:12,880 legislation. There we go. 78 00:05:13,000 --> 00:05:17,200 OK, so that's clearly in purview of Congress, the tariffs, Yeah, 79 00:05:17,200 --> 00:05:22,320 Congress did give the executive branch the ability to mess with 80 00:05:22,320 --> 00:05:24,120 tariffs under certain conditions. 81 00:05:24,360 --> 00:05:28,720 But again, this is Congress. The authority sits ultimately 82 00:05:28,720 --> 00:05:33,880 with Congress the Iran war granted it's we're still within 83 00:05:33,880 --> 00:05:38,560 whatever it is the 150 day period of quote UN quote police 84 00:05:38,560 --> 00:05:41,680 action, but nonetheless declaring war's congressional 85 00:05:41,680 --> 00:05:44,480 thing. Congress has done nothing and 86 00:05:44,480 --> 00:05:48,080 and when I say nothing, you might say, well, it's a 87 00:05:48,080 --> 00:05:52,840 Republican Congress so you wouldn't expect it to go against 88 00:05:52,840 --> 00:05:56,880 the president. OK, but why has Congress not 89 00:05:56,920 --> 00:06:01,240 passed legislation affirming these things that he's doing? 90 00:06:01,600 --> 00:06:03,320 It's neither affirmed nor denied. 91 00:06:03,320 --> 00:06:06,560 It is sat on its hands and done absolutely nothing. 92 00:06:06,960 --> 00:06:10,040 That that's right now, I think the war powers act specifies in 93 00:06:10,040 --> 00:06:14,800 90 days, but I'm I'm not a war powers act expert, so take that 94 00:06:14,800 --> 00:06:18,160 out for whatever it's worth. I, I think that's exactly right 95 00:06:18,160 --> 00:06:23,480 what you just said, aunt, they Congress has habitually ceded 96 00:06:23,480 --> 00:06:27,920 its authority to the executive branch for the better part of 97 00:06:27,920 --> 00:06:32,520 100 years at this point, and it's time. 98 00:06:32,600 --> 00:06:34,400 I think it should never have done it. 99 00:06:34,400 --> 00:06:38,520 But having said that, it has done it, it's time to take it 100 00:06:38,520 --> 00:06:42,640 back bit by bit, brick by brick, however they want to do it. 101 00:06:43,800 --> 00:06:47,000 And I, you know, I, I think we've got a number of cowards in 102 00:06:47,000 --> 00:06:49,880 the legislative branch and we always have, you know, they're, 103 00:06:49,880 --> 00:06:52,680 they're at the whim of their various electorates. 104 00:06:54,200 --> 00:06:56,880 You know, the House is up for re election every two years. 105 00:06:56,880 --> 00:07:02,320 We're coming up on a, on an even numbered year or and you know, 106 00:07:03,160 --> 00:07:05,800 there's going to be problems for the Republicans in the House 107 00:07:05,800 --> 00:07:08,920 without question. And they're all thinking, how do 108 00:07:08,920 --> 00:07:11,320 I just get through this with my skin intact? 109 00:07:12,280 --> 00:07:15,840 But that's always their first consideration. 110 00:07:16,240 --> 00:07:20,040 And it's about time, I think, God help me for saying such a 111 00:07:20,040 --> 00:07:24,080 crazy thing that they put country above re election. 112 00:07:25,080 --> 00:07:29,600 Yeah, because it should be country above all things if you 113 00:07:29,720 --> 00:07:31,920 are a representative in a federal body. 114 00:07:32,800 --> 00:07:37,280 And it's just not. And I wonder if if part of our 115 00:07:37,280 --> 00:07:40,720 problem is that Congress, particularly the House, has 116 00:07:40,720 --> 00:07:43,880 gotten so large that it's easy to hide. 117 00:07:44,400 --> 00:07:47,440 You know, you're a handful of of Americans. 118 00:07:47,440 --> 00:07:50,560 You can claim you're doing all sorts of things, but what can 119 00:07:50,560 --> 00:07:55,040 they see you're once you're 1 amongst whatever it is 535 total 120 00:07:55,240 --> 00:07:57,280 in the. Congress, I once, I once did the 121 00:07:57,280 --> 00:08:01,760 math on this because if you read the The Federalist and the, the, 122 00:08:01,840 --> 00:08:04,920 the original Constitution there, there's an electoral scheme in 123 00:08:04,920 --> 00:08:07,720 there. And if we stuck with it, with 124 00:08:07,720 --> 00:08:11,400 the numbers that were offered in 1787, we would have a House of 125 00:08:11,400 --> 00:08:14,360 Representatives exceeding 3000 members right now. 126 00:08:15,160 --> 00:08:19,760 You know. And could you imagine the daily 127 00:08:19,760 --> 00:08:23,680 shit show that that would be? I mean, it's, it's so many 128 00:08:23,680 --> 00:08:25,600 people, you'd never get anything done. 129 00:08:26,600 --> 00:08:28,680 Yeah, I well, that's interesting. 130 00:08:28,920 --> 00:08:31,280 You'd, you say you'd never get anything done? 131 00:08:31,280 --> 00:08:35,760 I imagine that it would be easier to get things done even 132 00:08:35,760 --> 00:08:39,840 in that environment if you had multiple parties because you 133 00:08:39,840 --> 00:08:43,679 would have people, you know, different factions getting 134 00:08:43,679 --> 00:08:48,160 together and, and, you know, offering votes in exchange to, 135 00:08:48,160 --> 00:08:51,240 to, to form coalitions. But we don't even have that. 136 00:08:51,680 --> 00:08:56,000 Yeah, you would always still need a majority and the winner 137 00:08:56,000 --> 00:08:59,760 take all system that we have does not yield more than two 138 00:08:59,760 --> 00:09:03,720 parties over time. So, you know, we would end up 139 00:09:03,720 --> 00:09:06,760 with two parties there, just be divided among 3000 people 140 00:09:07,160 --> 00:09:13,600 instead of the 35 we've got. Is it possible that the problem 141 00:09:13,600 --> 00:09:20,040 here is not the people we have elected, but rather that it is 142 00:09:20,040 --> 00:09:25,360 simply not possible to govern a country this size under the 143 00:09:25,360 --> 00:09:29,000 system we currently have? Or perhaps there is no system 144 00:09:29,000 --> 00:09:30,680 that could govern a country this size. 145 00:09:31,120 --> 00:09:35,280 I would be more inclined towards that second answer and I I would 146 00:09:35,280 --> 00:09:40,400 say there is no system other than authoritarianism, right? 147 00:09:40,480 --> 00:09:44,440 Because you can always crush a massive number of people under a 148 00:09:44,440 --> 00:09:48,640 boot. The Soviet Union ran pretty well 149 00:09:48,640 --> 00:09:52,360 for a while, right? Well, which in a sense we're, 150 00:09:52,400 --> 00:09:57,000 we're headed toward maybe a benevolent 1, but at the moment 151 00:09:57,000 --> 00:10:01,000 the, the only entity in the federal government is that seems 152 00:10:01,000 --> 00:10:04,360 to have any ability to rein in the executive branch is the 153 00:10:04,360 --> 00:10:08,280 Supreme Court. Yeah, and you know, we'll see 154 00:10:08,280 --> 00:10:11,600 how long that lasts. We had we had you could have 155 00:10:11,600 --> 00:10:15,520 said a very similar thing under FDR and the the court ultimately 156 00:10:15,520 --> 00:10:17,920 knuckled under. Yeah, I want to. 157 00:10:18,240 --> 00:10:20,680 I want to give us something a little happier to think about. 158 00:10:21,160 --> 00:10:26,360 I want to bring us to my ancestral homeland of Ireland 159 00:10:26,360 --> 00:10:32,480 where there is a Saint of a human being, I mean an absolute 160 00:10:32,480 --> 00:10:35,680 St. named Matt Cortland. Matt, if you're out there and 161 00:10:35,680 --> 00:10:39,040 I'm guessing one of your buddies through you know, hooker by 162 00:10:39,040 --> 00:10:42,120 crook will will get you this little bit. 163 00:10:42,600 --> 00:10:49,560 He has done something for the ages Ant he walked into a pub in 164 00:10:50,440 --> 00:10:56,920 well hell if I know Dublin I guess it was and paid €7.80 for 165 00:10:56,920 --> 00:11:02,320 a pint of Guinness and thought to himself that seems a little 166 00:11:02,320 --> 00:11:06,360 expensive and he said how can I find out if that was a little 167 00:11:06,360 --> 00:11:10,680 expensive. So he created an AI agent that 168 00:11:10,680 --> 00:11:16,160 called every pub in in Dublin, which is a bit much if you've 169 00:11:16,160 --> 00:11:21,200 ever been to Dublin, there's a literally 3 pubs on every block. 170 00:11:22,520 --> 00:11:27,000 And he, he had his AI agent call every single one of them and ask 171 00:11:27,000 --> 00:11:30,480 it was the three 3000 pubs across Ireland let me get it 172 00:11:30,480 --> 00:11:33,600 right. And they, his agent asked 173 00:11:33,600 --> 00:11:37,040 whoever answered the phone, what is the cost of a pint of 174 00:11:37,040 --> 00:11:42,520 Guinness? And he came up with the actual 175 00:11:42,720 --> 00:11:46,680 price of Guinness, which he called the Gindex, which is just 176 00:11:46,680 --> 00:11:49,960 brilliant. And the, and the Gindex 177 00:11:49,960 --> 00:11:54,760 indicates that the average across Ireland is 6 year OO1. 178 00:11:55,480 --> 00:12:00,520 So he overpaid significantly and now he's got the data to back it 179 00:12:00,520 --> 00:12:04,600 up and he's making a bit of a bit of noise with it. 180 00:12:05,080 --> 00:12:09,280 And apparently when his AI agent called a number of the pubs, 181 00:12:09,280 --> 00:12:11,760 they they gave the price but immediately said what? 182 00:12:11,760 --> 00:12:14,000 But we'll give you a discount if you want to come in right now. 183 00:12:15,960 --> 00:12:21,320 So now we wait to see what this St. of a man can accomplish in 184 00:12:21,320 --> 00:12:23,720 lowering the price of Guinness throughout the Emerald Isle. 185 00:12:24,760 --> 00:12:29,400 God bless to you, Mr. Cortland. This is beautiful. 186 00:12:29,400 --> 00:12:33,640 But you had me on. He had his AI agent call. 187 00:12:33,680 --> 00:12:36,520 I didn't know agent AI agents could do that. 188 00:12:37,360 --> 00:12:41,080 Mr. Cortland figured out a way. He even gave it a nice female 189 00:12:41,080 --> 00:12:44,200 voice that was an homage to an Irish actress. 190 00:12:45,560 --> 00:12:51,240 Wow, that's impressive and bad news for those of us who are 191 00:12:51,240 --> 00:12:55,680 plagued by telemarketers. That's that's probably right. 192 00:12:55,720 --> 00:12:59,160 But you know, you raise the price of a beloved product and 193 00:12:59,280 --> 00:13:01,080 maybe you should pay a little bit for that. 194 00:13:02,160 --> 00:13:04,720 Let the people be hurt, aunt. But the people be right. 195 00:13:05,360 --> 00:13:09,760 Which brings us headlong into the foolishness of the week. 196 00:13:09,760 --> 00:13:13,640 And I've missed this. And, you know, we had so many 197 00:13:13,640 --> 00:13:19,120 options upfront as we started the episode of what could be the 198 00:13:19,120 --> 00:13:21,680 Foolishness of the week. And for my money, it was going 199 00:13:21,680 --> 00:13:24,600 to be JD Vance declaring that aliens are demons. 200 00:13:25,200 --> 00:13:30,000 But there's a a race, a congressional race in Texas that 201 00:13:30,000 --> 00:13:35,080 has taken a very, very odd turn. There's this guy named Bobby 202 00:13:35,080 --> 00:13:39,080 Polito, and he's running down there and, and he's a bit of an 203 00:13:39,080 --> 00:13:42,840 entertainer. And his Republican opponent, 204 00:13:42,840 --> 00:13:48,080 whose name I don't even know, which tells you something, said 205 00:13:48,800 --> 00:13:53,600 you'd be you'd be better to performing at parties than you 206 00:13:53,600 --> 00:13:58,480 would be at Congress. And Bobby Polito said hold my 207 00:13:58,600 --> 00:14:04,040 beer and started offering his services to quinceanera parties 208 00:14:04,040 --> 00:14:08,680 across Texas. And every weekend he goes and 209 00:14:08,680 --> 00:14:11,920 performs at multiple quinceanera parties for free. 210 00:14:12,200 --> 00:14:16,960 All he asks is that he be allowed to leave his QR code 211 00:14:16,960 --> 00:14:20,920 somewhere in the in the case. And I got to tell you, man, I 212 00:14:20,920 --> 00:14:24,960 growing up in New England, I, I had no idea what a quinceanera 213 00:14:24,960 --> 00:14:28,160 party even was until I was in my 40s. 214 00:14:28,440 --> 00:14:30,600 And that was back to Utah the second time. 215 00:14:31,120 --> 00:14:35,560 And it turns out our building at Strata, the nonprofit for, for 216 00:14:35,720 --> 00:14:40,000 for which I toiled, we, we shared kind of like a building 217 00:14:40,000 --> 00:14:44,320 space with an Event Center, which, you know, during work 218 00:14:44,320 --> 00:14:47,560 hours was never an issue. But you know, in my, in my 219 00:14:47,560 --> 00:14:50,920 world, work hours are I'm going to stay here until 3:00 in the 220 00:14:50,920 --> 00:14:53,760 morning. And one night about 9:00, the, 221 00:14:53,760 --> 00:14:55,800 the Mexican music just lighted up. 222 00:14:55,920 --> 00:14:57,280 And it was. Loud. 223 00:14:57,560 --> 00:15:01,160 And the crowd was huge. And I'm like, what the, what the 224 00:15:01,160 --> 00:15:04,120 hell? What the hell is going on next 225 00:15:04,120 --> 00:15:08,000 door? And I went over and I, I looked 226 00:15:08,000 --> 00:15:10,320 at all these people. They'd spilled out into the 227 00:15:10,320 --> 00:15:13,360 parking lot. And I said, what the hell are 228 00:15:13,360 --> 00:15:16,040 all you Mexicans doing? And they said it's a 229 00:15:16,040 --> 00:15:18,360 quinceanera. And I said, OK, what the hell is 230 00:15:18,360 --> 00:15:21,520 a quinceanera? And they explained it to me and 231 00:15:21,520 --> 00:15:23,000 everybody was having so much fun. 232 00:15:23,320 --> 00:15:24,640 And then they said, do you want to come? 233 00:15:24,680 --> 00:15:26,680 And I said, well, of course I want to come. 234 00:15:26,680 --> 00:15:27,520 What? What's wrong with it? 235 00:15:27,520 --> 00:15:29,640 Yes. So I, I went to my first 236 00:15:29,640 --> 00:15:32,400 quinceanera and it was just a gas. 237 00:15:32,400 --> 00:15:34,280 I mean, it was, it was fantastic. 238 00:15:35,080 --> 00:15:39,920 And look, the, the Mexican population in Logan, UT, pretty 239 00:15:39,920 --> 00:15:43,240 minimal, but that place was jammed, right? 240 00:15:43,800 --> 00:15:47,880 And if Bobby Polito is going across Texas from one 241 00:15:47,880 --> 00:15:55,880 quinceanera to another, he, he is going to make a dent in that 242 00:15:55,880 --> 00:15:58,200 election. And I look forward to seeing if 243 00:15:58,200 --> 00:16:01,920 it works 'cause he's looking to flip a seat, right? 244 00:16:01,920 --> 00:16:06,000 This is a Republican seat. And you might, you might recall, 245 00:16:06,440 --> 00:16:09,600 but I said Once Upon a time, and I'm going to reiterate this now. 246 00:16:09,880 --> 00:16:13,360 I predicted that the Texas redistricting would end up 247 00:16:13,360 --> 00:16:17,160 costing the Republicans seats because they had based their 248 00:16:17,160 --> 00:16:23,240 redistricting on previous numbers that indicated the the 249 00:16:23,240 --> 00:16:27,400 Mexican vote breaking for Republicans because that it did 250 00:16:27,400 --> 00:16:31,560 break for Trump. But in the in the two years 251 00:16:31,920 --> 00:16:34,760 between then and now, the Republican Party's managed to 252 00:16:34,760 --> 00:16:39,800 lose that group of people in Texas and they're going to turn 253 00:16:39,800 --> 00:16:42,840 out for Democrats this time in a way they turned out for 254 00:16:42,840 --> 00:16:46,760 Republicans last time. So Mr. Polito might have a baked 255 00:16:46,760 --> 00:16:50,160 in advantage in this seat because I think a lot of 256 00:16:50,160 --> 00:16:52,760 Democrats in Texas might have a a baked in advantage. 257 00:16:53,320 --> 00:16:56,160 It remains to be seen what happens, but I don't think it's 258 00:16:56,160 --> 00:16:59,080 going to be nearly as rosy for the Republicans as they thought 259 00:16:59,080 --> 00:17:03,040 when they redistricted. Well, it's interesting that your 260 00:17:03,040 --> 00:17:06,640 people complain about redistricting and is it fair? 261 00:17:06,960 --> 00:17:13,400 And it sounds like from what you're saying, it doesn't matter 262 00:17:13,400 --> 00:17:17,960 the voter is so long as the voters vote their interest as 263 00:17:17,960 --> 00:17:24,680 opposed to mindlessly voting for one party or the other, then 264 00:17:24,680 --> 00:17:28,480 redistricting doesn't matter. But you're always driving 265 00:17:28,680 --> 00:17:30,280 through it through the rearview mirror. 266 00:17:30,800 --> 00:17:33,480 I mean, it matters, right? Let let's stipulate that it 267 00:17:33,480 --> 00:17:36,280 matters. But if it were the be all and 268 00:17:36,280 --> 00:17:39,360 the end all, you would redistrict once and then never 269 00:17:39,360 --> 00:17:45,440 have to do it again, right? And, and we know as a matter of 270 00:17:45,440 --> 00:17:46,880 fact that that just doesn't happen. 271 00:17:47,920 --> 00:17:50,520 So you can get an advantage, but it's probably going to be 272 00:17:50,520 --> 00:17:53,320 temporary. And when the opposing party 273 00:17:53,320 --> 00:17:56,880 figures out a way to beat you, they're going to redistrict, and 274 00:17:56,880 --> 00:17:59,160 then they're going to have an advantage that will probably be 275 00:17:59,160 --> 00:18:01,720 temporary. And on and on and on and on. 276 00:18:02,440 --> 00:18:04,400 So politics works in its own way. 277 00:18:05,240 --> 00:18:08,640 But you wanted to get us back to AI, at least after a fashion, 278 00:18:08,640 --> 00:18:12,520 Isn't that right? Well, well, kind of the the 279 00:18:12,520 --> 00:18:15,920 topic I want to talk talk about today, we could I guess more 280 00:18:15,920 --> 00:18:20,400 generally describe as bubbles. And I should, I should say 281 00:18:20,400 --> 00:18:24,640 right, I should say right off the top that when I was a junior 282 00:18:24,640 --> 00:18:28,000 high school student in Watertown, CT, we had an 283 00:18:28,000 --> 00:18:30,400 assistant, we had a vice principal whose name was 284 00:18:30,400 --> 00:18:33,280 Bubbles. Oh, I bet he got all kinds of 285 00:18:33,280 --> 00:18:35,000 guff from the students for that. Well. 286 00:18:35,440 --> 00:18:39,800 Obviously it was she and obviously that was the name 287 00:18:39,800 --> 00:18:42,720 given to her by her. Oh, excuse me. 288 00:18:42,720 --> 00:18:45,400 OK, OK. She dressed like a like a bit of 289 00:18:45,400 --> 00:18:47,520 a high end call girl. I see. 290 00:18:48,520 --> 00:18:51,280 Well, the, the, I'm we're talking about financial bubbles 291 00:18:51,280 --> 00:18:53,720 here. And what brings us up is 292 00:18:54,000 --> 00:18:58,040 somebody raised the question to me in passing about, you know, 293 00:18:58,080 --> 00:19:01,400 financial bubbles, particularly with, you know, the latest being 294 00:19:01,480 --> 00:19:07,000 AI and you know, looking for some confirmation that bubbles 295 00:19:07,000 --> 00:19:10,160 are a bad thing and maybe we need some regulation to prevent 296 00:19:10,160 --> 00:19:14,440 that sort of thing. And, and I kind of always 297 00:19:14,440 --> 00:19:17,760 ignored them. And, and the reason is 298 00:19:18,920 --> 00:19:22,080 economists, when we look at the economy, we look at what we call 299 00:19:22,080 --> 00:19:25,240 the real economy. The real economy is the 300 00:19:25,240 --> 00:19:30,160 production of goods and services as opposed to the movement of 301 00:19:30,160 --> 00:19:33,520 dollars. So you can move dollars from me 302 00:19:33,520 --> 00:19:37,880 to you, but if we haven't produced anything, then really 303 00:19:37,880 --> 00:19:40,000 nothing's happened. It's just movement of dollars. 304 00:19:40,280 --> 00:19:44,640 And so too, financial bubbles often are simply movement of, of 305 00:19:44,640 --> 00:19:47,200 dollars. So I tend to ignore them. 306 00:19:47,760 --> 00:19:52,040 However, I started thinking about this and I realized that 307 00:19:52,200 --> 00:19:55,040 people who so many people who are concerned about bubbles and 308 00:19:55,040 --> 00:19:58,880 they're dangerous things and so forth, are only looking at the 309 00:19:58,880 --> 00:20:02,120 financial side. They aren't looking at the at 310 00:20:02,120 --> 00:20:05,720 the real economy, the effects on on production of goods and 311 00:20:05,720 --> 00:20:14,120 services. And, and it occurs to me that a 312 00:20:14,120 --> 00:20:19,920 price mechanism in markets is reflects it so long as it's a 313 00:20:19,920 --> 00:20:24,560 free market reflects all of people's expectations and their 314 00:20:24,560 --> 00:20:27,360 abilities and their their constraints. 315 00:20:27,560 --> 00:20:32,080 So when you pick up a bottle of water and it's $2.50 or whatever 316 00:20:32,080 --> 00:20:36,320 it is, you can, in a free market environment, pretty well 317 00:20:37,120 --> 00:20:40,720 understand that that price reflects everything that went 318 00:20:40,720 --> 00:20:44,280 into producing it all the way up the production chain, and 319 00:20:44,280 --> 00:20:48,000 reflects how badly people want water, how easy it is to get it 320 00:20:48,000 --> 00:20:51,320 to them, all that stuff. It's all reflected in the $2.50 321 00:20:51,320 --> 00:20:55,280 price. But here's the thing, how can a 322 00:20:55,600 --> 00:21:00,880 how can a free market price reflect all of that for a 323 00:21:00,880 --> 00:21:06,520 product that isn't well defined? Well, you know a couple of 324 00:21:06,520 --> 00:21:08,600 things. It's, it's interesting, right? 325 00:21:08,600 --> 00:21:13,600 Because first, when I have to go get gas, I don't compare prices. 326 00:21:14,280 --> 00:21:17,840 I understand that there are three gas stations on on the 1st 327 00:21:17,840 --> 00:21:21,840 2 miles out of my house, always the same price or within a 328 00:21:21,840 --> 00:21:24,400 penny. So do I really care about the 329 00:21:24,400 --> 00:21:27,000 $0.16 I could save on a full tank of gas? 330 00:21:27,760 --> 00:21:31,720 No, I, I most certainly do not. So prices work right? 331 00:21:31,720 --> 00:21:35,040 We know this. Am I going to pay a lot more for 332 00:21:35,040 --> 00:21:38,840 my groceries if I go to Fry's or Albertson's or Safeway? 333 00:21:39,360 --> 00:21:41,080 No, it's going to be roughly the same. 334 00:21:42,400 --> 00:21:45,440 And then there's the issue that you bring up right the the great 335 00:21:45,440 --> 00:21:47,840 unknown. When you price the unknown, 336 00:21:48,480 --> 00:21:52,320 you're going to get all kinds of distortions andirememberthe.com 337 00:21:52,320 --> 00:21:54,960 bubble. I remember doing something you 338 00:21:54,960 --> 00:21:59,000 did not do, watching the Super Bowl during the the.com bubble. 339 00:21:59,000 --> 00:22:03,840 Must've been 99 and I didn't understand the single ad that I 340 00:22:03,840 --> 00:22:08,720 saw because every every company that bought 1 was pushing 341 00:22:08,720 --> 00:22:11,200 their.com brand. But they never said what they 342 00:22:11,200 --> 00:22:12,880 did right? Right. 343 00:22:13,560 --> 00:22:15,640 And most of those companies are out of business now. 344 00:22:16,880 --> 00:22:18,240 They could afford a Super Bowl ad. 345 00:22:19,200 --> 00:22:23,240 They're all gone. You know, now go go back to your 346 00:22:23,240 --> 00:22:25,440 example of gas for a moment, because that's a good one. 347 00:22:25,600 --> 00:22:28,600 We all understand what a a gallon of gas is. 348 00:22:28,600 --> 00:22:31,600 And yeah, you know, some are 87 octane, some are something else, 349 00:22:31,600 --> 00:22:34,360 but we understand all this. So when I say the price of gas 350 00:22:34,360 --> 00:22:37,520 is of 87 octane, gas is something that communicates 351 00:22:37,520 --> 00:22:41,560 something to youbutyoumentioned.com, I want 352 00:22:41,560 --> 00:22:44,080 to go back a little bit further. Think about the invention of the 353 00:22:44,080 --> 00:22:48,680 automobile. When it was first invented, it 354 00:22:48,680 --> 00:22:51,480 was unclear what an automobile was. 355 00:22:51,520 --> 00:22:53,640 I mean, we know what an automobile is today, right? 356 00:22:53,880 --> 00:22:56,040 But, but back then it was a new invention. 357 00:22:56,480 --> 00:22:59,160 Does it have three wheels? Does it have 4? 358 00:22:59,360 --> 00:23:01,760 Does it have a retractable roof, A fixed roof? 359 00:23:01,760 --> 00:23:05,360 Do you have the crank on the front or a electronic thing? 360 00:23:05,360 --> 00:23:07,280 Do you have two headlights or one? 361 00:23:07,280 --> 00:23:09,080 How big is it? How many people does it see? 362 00:23:09,360 --> 00:23:14,080 None of those questions had been answered yet because it was a 363 00:23:14,080 --> 00:23:19,920 brand new thing. My favorite example automobile 364 00:23:19,920 --> 00:23:21,800 might become my new favorite example. 365 00:23:21,800 --> 00:23:23,880 It's actually quite compelling if you think about it. 366 00:23:24,520 --> 00:23:27,320 But my favorite example heretofore has been television 367 00:23:27,320 --> 00:23:33,480 networks and or channels, right? In 1955, what is a television 368 00:23:33,480 --> 00:23:35,160 network? Right. 369 00:23:35,800 --> 00:23:38,200 I mean, you can look at a television and know, all right, 370 00:23:38,200 --> 00:23:40,920 this is the future. I'm going to invest in it. 371 00:23:41,320 --> 00:23:43,040 Did you invest in the DuMont Network? 372 00:23:44,720 --> 00:23:47,240 Hope not, right? Kind of like with the AI 373 00:23:47,240 --> 00:23:51,040 business, there are, you know, 8 or 10 different prominent AI 374 00:23:51,040 --> 00:23:54,440 companies right now. Will there be in three years, 375 00:23:55,440 --> 00:23:58,760 I'm guessing half of them will be gone, right? 376 00:23:59,600 --> 00:24:01,400 And they're all worth in fortune right now. 377 00:24:01,960 --> 00:24:05,040 Well, in in that's happening because I guess there are two 378 00:24:05,040 --> 00:24:07,920 things going on here. 1 is the market. 379 00:24:07,920 --> 00:24:12,680 The real economy is trying to figure out what is this thing. 380 00:24:12,760 --> 00:24:14,240 So you know, we start off with the car. 381 00:24:14,320 --> 00:24:17,560 In fact, back in the day, one of the first cars when cars were 382 00:24:17,560 --> 00:24:20,880 first invented had a horse head on the front of it because 383 00:24:21,040 --> 00:24:23,680 people were used to, you know, when you're traveling there's 384 00:24:23,680 --> 00:24:26,120 you're seeing you're seeing behind a horse had a full, you 385 00:24:26,120 --> 00:24:30,280 know, full size horse head not, not a, not a hood ornament the 386 00:24:30,520 --> 00:24:32,800 real thing, right? People didn't know what a car 387 00:24:32,800 --> 00:24:38,680 was and it took, it took entrepreneurs performing trial 388 00:24:38,680 --> 00:24:42,000 and error of this guy produces one thing, this guy produces 389 00:24:42,000 --> 00:24:44,440 another. And the, the consumers figured 390 00:24:44,440 --> 00:24:46,400 out I like this thing better or that thing better. 391 00:24:46,760 --> 00:24:51,600 And over time it settles down. And so we have today the car. 392 00:24:51,760 --> 00:24:55,400 Sure, there's variations, but basically a car is a car, right? 393 00:24:56,160 --> 00:24:58,320 But here's where the bubble bubble comes in. 394 00:24:58,680 --> 00:25:01,960 As the entrepreneurs are doing their thing, trying to figure 395 00:25:01,960 --> 00:25:05,840 out what's a car and we're trying different, different 396 00:25:05,880 --> 00:25:09,160 variations, investors are backing them. 397 00:25:09,800 --> 00:25:13,880 And of course, the investors are hoping that consumers choose the 398 00:25:13,880 --> 00:25:17,360 particular entrepreneur that the investor's backing. 399 00:25:17,680 --> 00:25:19,440 And that's how you get the bubble. 400 00:25:19,440 --> 00:25:22,200 All of a sudden people jumping on board saying, yeah, this is 401 00:25:22,200 --> 00:25:23,960 going to be great. You see it now with, you know, 402 00:25:24,240 --> 00:25:28,880 I'm a huge fan of ChatGPT and you know, as soon as that goes 403 00:25:28,880 --> 00:25:31,880 public, I would invest my money in it. 404 00:25:32,280 --> 00:25:35,000 That's the one I'm backing. And of course, the price of the 405 00:25:35,000 --> 00:25:37,720 stock is probably way above what it should be worth. 406 00:25:37,920 --> 00:25:41,480 But that's reflecting the fact that that we're still figuring 407 00:25:41,480 --> 00:25:46,160 out on the good side, what's AI on the investment side, all the 408 00:25:46,160 --> 00:25:49,000 entrepreneurs doing their thing and investors trying to back 409 00:25:49,000 --> 00:25:51,840 them, while the rest of us are are figuring out, you know, 410 00:25:51,840 --> 00:25:54,880 what, where, where should we put our money, both in terms of 411 00:25:54,880 --> 00:25:56,440 investment, in terms of consumption. 412 00:25:56,920 --> 00:26:01,600 Yeah, meanwhile, just a couple of days ago, one of, and it 413 00:26:01,600 --> 00:26:04,120 happened on April 1st and I thought it was an April Fool's 414 00:26:04,120 --> 00:26:07,120 Day joke. One of the one of the prominent 415 00:26:07,120 --> 00:26:10,800 AIS, I think it was Claude, had its source code put up online. 416 00:26:11,640 --> 00:26:12,800 That really, it was. Serious. 417 00:26:13,280 --> 00:26:15,240 Yeah, that that's going to cause a problem, right? 418 00:26:15,240 --> 00:26:17,600 That yeah, that's proprietary information. 419 00:26:17,880 --> 00:26:21,320 Now it isn't. And you know that that's going 420 00:26:21,320 --> 00:26:25,000 to affect the bottom line. Meanwhile, I'm a, I'm a grok guy 421 00:26:25,000 --> 00:26:26,160 myself. Why? 422 00:26:26,160 --> 00:26:31,120 Because it's free and easily accessible and I can use it as 423 00:26:31,120 --> 00:26:33,560 long as I want without restriction, right? 424 00:26:33,560 --> 00:26:36,880 This kind of thing, is it better than ChatGPT? 425 00:26:37,440 --> 00:26:41,360 No earthly idea. It's more convenient and 426 00:26:41,360 --> 00:26:43,800 convenient equals better in some respects. 427 00:26:45,320 --> 00:26:48,360 So who the hell knows? And I I honestly have no 428 00:26:48,360 --> 00:26:51,920 prediction which a is will still be around in five years. 429 00:26:52,880 --> 00:26:55,560 None whatsoever. Let me, let me help you out with 430 00:26:55,560 --> 00:26:57,400 that prediction. And, and I agree with you. 431 00:26:57,400 --> 00:26:59,880 I don't know which one's going to be around in five years, but 432 00:26:59,880 --> 00:27:05,440 I bet you whatever AI is in five years will be markedly different 433 00:27:05,440 --> 00:27:09,120 from what it is today. I suspect that's right, and I I 434 00:27:09,120 --> 00:27:11,720 hold open the possibility that will it will kill us all. 435 00:27:12,400 --> 00:27:16,920 I'm less sold on that idea as time goes by, but you know, 436 00:27:17,000 --> 00:27:18,600 these things are theoretically possible. 437 00:27:20,040 --> 00:27:26,400 So in all likelihood it will follow the development of every 438 00:27:26,400 --> 00:27:31,000 other man made thing and it will get decidedly better very 439 00:27:31,000 --> 00:27:34,600 quickly. Over time it will become 440 00:27:34,920 --> 00:27:41,120 commonplace, it will become integrated, and then after a bit 441 00:27:41,560 --> 00:27:45,360 we'll move on to the next thing. The same way that we don't think 442 00:27:45,360 --> 00:27:49,720 about right now, the Internet. Great. 443 00:27:49,720 --> 00:27:51,760 I, I, I remember and do you remember? 444 00:27:51,880 --> 00:27:53,280 A lot of our. Listeners are not going to 445 00:27:53,280 --> 00:27:55,480 remember this. In order to get the Internet, 446 00:27:56,000 --> 00:28:00,520 you used to have to go out to your mailbox and get ACD, right? 447 00:28:00,520 --> 00:28:02,800 Yeah. And put it into a machine. 448 00:28:03,480 --> 00:28:07,600 And then all of a sudden magic happened and you had Internet 449 00:28:07,600 --> 00:28:12,000 for X number of hours and then you could sign up for AOL if you 450 00:28:12,000 --> 00:28:15,320 wanted to. The Internet is still around. 451 00:28:15,320 --> 00:28:18,480 It's become so ubiquitous that we don't talk about it anymore. 452 00:28:18,800 --> 00:28:22,040 Remember when Al Gore talked about access to the information 453 00:28:22,040 --> 00:28:25,400 superhighway and how we had to dump all these billions of 454 00:28:25,400 --> 00:28:28,720 dollars into it so rural people could get it? 455 00:28:29,640 --> 00:28:32,760 That turned out to be exactly the problem we both predicted. 456 00:28:32,760 --> 00:28:35,880 Not at all. And you know, here we are. 457 00:28:35,880 --> 00:28:37,480 We don't even think about it anymore. 458 00:28:38,400 --> 00:28:41,280 Of course I have the Internet. What kind of idiot wouldn't have 459 00:28:41,280 --> 00:28:44,760 the Internet? And I think AI will be kind of 460 00:28:44,760 --> 00:28:47,600 like that. And I think the one of the ways, 461 00:28:47,600 --> 00:28:51,000 you know, that we don't think about it that much is imagine 462 00:28:51,000 --> 00:28:52,760 what would happen if it went down. 463 00:28:52,760 --> 00:28:55,880 As you know, you lose connectivity from time to time. 464 00:28:56,160 --> 00:28:57,680 It goes down. So I was working. 465 00:28:57,680 --> 00:28:59,120 Well, now I can't work 'cause the Internet's down. 466 00:28:59,120 --> 00:29:01,360 I'm going to go visit my Aunt Mildred instead. 467 00:29:01,680 --> 00:29:05,560 Oh wait, I don't know how to get there because Google Maps is is 468 00:29:05,560 --> 00:29:08,840 down, so I'll stay here. I'll do my taxes. 469 00:29:08,840 --> 00:29:12,080 Oh wait, I can't. Because TurboTax is online and 470 00:29:12,080 --> 00:29:15,640 you don't realize how much you use it until it goes away and 471 00:29:15,640 --> 00:29:17,320 all of a sudden all these things you can't do. 472 00:29:18,200 --> 00:29:23,320 Yeah, I mean they typically do the the routine maintenance at 473 00:29:23,320 --> 00:29:26,560 1:00 in the morning and I am routinely awake at 1:00 in the. 474 00:29:26,560 --> 00:29:29,880 Morning, right? And the, the epic tirades of 475 00:29:29,880 --> 00:29:32,320 swearing that happened in this house when they do routine 476 00:29:32,320 --> 00:29:35,640 maintenance at 1:00 in the morning, you could probably hear 477 00:29:35,640 --> 00:29:37,880 them in, in Virginia where you live. 478 00:29:40,080 --> 00:29:43,400 But I, you know, look, I, I, I, I don't know where this is going 479 00:29:43,400 --> 00:29:45,320 to end up. And that's the interesting part, 480 00:29:45,320 --> 00:29:47,520 right? And people are taking their best 481 00:29:47,520 --> 00:29:51,680 shot and a lot of people are going to get really, really rich 482 00:29:52,040 --> 00:29:55,760 and a lot of people are going to lose every, every dollar they 483 00:29:55,760 --> 00:29:57,600 put into it. Yes. 484 00:29:57,920 --> 00:30:02,280 But all of that is happening on the financial side of the Ledger 485 00:30:02,280 --> 00:30:04,640 as opposed to the real economy side of the Ledger. 486 00:30:04,640 --> 00:30:06,360 Yeah, people will lose their shirts. 487 00:30:06,360 --> 00:30:09,520 People become very rich. But that, if you look at it, is 488 00:30:09,520 --> 00:30:13,320 really just dollars moving from one person's pocket to another 489 00:30:13,320 --> 00:30:16,200 person's pocket. And it's a result of the bubble 490 00:30:16,200 --> 00:30:17,760 being inflated and then crashing. 491 00:30:17,760 --> 00:30:21,240 But what happened as that bubble inflated, it was attracting 492 00:30:21,520 --> 00:30:25,760 capital and entrepreneurs and investors to try more and more 493 00:30:25,760 --> 00:30:28,720 different things. And the more things they try on 494 00:30:28,720 --> 00:30:32,160 the real economy side, the more options consumer have and the 495 00:30:32,160 --> 00:30:36,240 better consumers are able to say that works and that doesn't. 496 00:30:37,400 --> 00:30:41,200 Well, as as I learned when I became an economist, open 497 00:30:41,200 --> 00:30:44,760 parentheses, honorary close parentheses, prices are 498 00:30:44,760 --> 00:30:46,720 information. You know. 499 00:30:47,520 --> 00:30:49,800 They're information in real time, right? 500 00:30:49,800 --> 00:30:53,440 And OK, sometimes things get way out of whack. 501 00:30:53,440 --> 00:30:57,760 And that's information too. When you look at something and 502 00:30:57,760 --> 00:31:02,440 you say Company X is selling for, you know, $300 a share, 503 00:31:02,440 --> 00:31:04,320 there are X numbers of shares out there. 504 00:31:04,320 --> 00:31:10,480 The market cap is thus this many billions, but they've never once 505 00:31:10,560 --> 00:31:13,240 been in danger of turning a profit and they can't tell me 506 00:31:13,240 --> 00:31:17,240 how they're ever going to. There's a lot of information 507 00:31:17,240 --> 00:31:19,000 there. Wait, yeah. 508 00:31:19,240 --> 00:31:23,720 And, and people will, I've heard people point to that as kind of 509 00:31:23,720 --> 00:31:28,320 the, the, that's the final say. Well, the, the the companies has 510 00:31:28,320 --> 00:31:31,480 no prospects for profit. You can't justify this price, 511 00:31:31,480 --> 00:31:34,800 therefore bubble. But I point back to Amazon 512 00:31:34,800 --> 00:31:38,120 because back in the days of Amazon, people said the exact 513 00:31:38,120 --> 00:31:41,800 same thing. I was describing Amazon and as a 514 00:31:41,800 --> 00:31:46,160 matter of fact the financial chattering class would say on 515 00:31:46,160 --> 00:31:49,320 CNBC all day long. I don't know how this company 516 00:31:49,320 --> 00:31:53,320 expects to sell dollar bills for $0.75 for the rest of its life 517 00:31:53,640 --> 00:31:58,880 and hope to ever turn a profit. Yep, and yet a profit was 518 00:31:58,880 --> 00:32:02,120 turned. A profit was turned, and I was 519 00:32:02,120 --> 00:32:04,920 actually quite surprised because the first time they turned a 520 00:32:04,920 --> 00:32:08,880 profit, I believe the company was at least 10 years old. 521 00:32:09,160 --> 00:32:12,800 It was old enough that it it shocked me that they hadn't been 522 00:32:12,800 --> 00:32:16,360 profitable to that point. But what happened was over those 523 00:32:16,360 --> 00:32:20,680 years, Amazon was doing trial and error figuring out how to 524 00:32:20,680 --> 00:32:22,680 turn a profit. It finally figured it out. 525 00:32:22,680 --> 00:32:26,640 And it's not something that the entrepreneur, Amazon does by 526 00:32:26,640 --> 00:32:30,240 itself You it's a dance that occurs with the consumer. 527 00:32:30,520 --> 00:32:33,240 Entrepreneur tries things, consumers say yes or no. 528 00:32:33,360 --> 00:32:36,080 Entrepreneur tries different things, Consumers say yes or no 529 00:32:36,080 --> 00:32:38,720 by by giving or withholding their dollars. 530 00:32:39,120 --> 00:32:41,080 And Amazon finally figured it out. 531 00:32:41,120 --> 00:32:43,320 And now yes, indeed, it's it's profitable. 532 00:32:43,320 --> 00:32:46,960 It's worth What is stock prices? And there were enough people 533 00:32:46,960 --> 00:32:50,320 along the way who said, I believe in this company, I will 534 00:32:50,320 --> 00:32:53,280 invest in this company. And that kept, that's what kept 535 00:32:53,280 --> 00:32:55,920 it afloat. Yeah, right. 536 00:32:55,920 --> 00:32:58,440 So. There there's plenty of examples 537 00:32:58,440 --> 00:33:00,920 in the. Other direction, for every 538 00:33:00,920 --> 00:33:05,520 Amazon there are hundreds if not thousands of not Amazon. 539 00:33:06,720 --> 00:33:08,720 Yeah. And I think that's that's the 540 00:33:08,720 --> 00:33:12,040 thing People will say, well, look at this is clearly a 541 00:33:12,040 --> 00:33:16,400 failure of markets because, OK, fine, you've got an Amazon, but 542 00:33:16,400 --> 00:33:19,920 then you have on the other side 100 different companies that 543 00:33:19,920 --> 00:33:22,680 tried and failed. And look at all that wasted 544 00:33:22,680 --> 00:33:24,440 money and talent and all of that. 545 00:33:24,760 --> 00:33:29,920 To which I respond, we only know in retrospect that those were 546 00:33:29,920 --> 00:33:32,280 failures. And why were they failures? 547 00:33:32,280 --> 00:33:35,760 Because they tried something and consumers said no, you've got to 548 00:33:35,760 --> 00:33:37,400 try it. And let the consumers tell you. 549 00:33:37,400 --> 00:33:41,520 We had no idea that Amazon's model was the right one at the 550 00:33:41,520 --> 00:33:44,040 beginning. We had to go through that, that 551 00:33:44,040 --> 00:33:47,360 trial and error. Yeah, that that's exactly right. 552 00:33:47,360 --> 00:33:49,680 And the consumer gets the last say every time. 553 00:33:50,240 --> 00:33:56,120 And I my mind always goes to VHS versus Betamax, right. 554 00:33:56,120 --> 00:33:59,840 The Betamax was a superior product in literally every way. 555 00:34:00,200 --> 00:34:03,240 And they made one critical mistake on their way to full 556 00:34:03,240 --> 00:34:06,880 integration into the home, and they disallowed pornography on 557 00:34:06,880 --> 00:34:08,159 their platform. Sony did. 558 00:34:08,760 --> 00:34:12,639 And people were thinking, yeah, I don't think so. 559 00:34:12,639 --> 00:34:16,719 This gets me out of going to these awful Pee Wee Herman style 560 00:34:16,719 --> 00:34:20,360 movie theaters where I have to interact with the public in a 561 00:34:20,360 --> 00:34:23,840 way I don't want to, and this allows me to have privacy and, 562 00:34:24,320 --> 00:34:27,239 you know, the whole bit. And it was just one bad business 563 00:34:27,239 --> 00:34:31,480 decision that maybe couldn't have been foreseen in its 564 00:34:31,480 --> 00:34:33,400 totality at the time it was made. 565 00:34:33,600 --> 00:34:37,400 But the market spoke immediately, and Sony never 566 00:34:37,400 --> 00:34:39,199 caught up again. Never. 567 00:34:39,199 --> 00:34:41,800 Never. So Amazon, right? 568 00:34:41,800 --> 00:34:43,440 Think about what Amazon does now. 569 00:34:43,440 --> 00:34:47,000 This is a bookstore. People seem to forget that now. 570 00:34:47,000 --> 00:34:50,360 It's an everything store, right? Amazon was books. 571 00:34:50,760 --> 00:34:54,760 It was books and books only. The first place I go every time 572 00:34:54,760 --> 00:34:59,120 I need anything is Amazon. And then I ask myself, is this a 573 00:34:59,120 --> 00:35:01,200 reasonable price? If it is, I just pay it and they 574 00:35:01,200 --> 00:35:03,840 bring it over. If I look at it and I say, geez, 575 00:35:03,840 --> 00:35:05,840 I don't know. Then I compare the price to 576 00:35:05,840 --> 00:35:08,920 everybody else. And if there's a significant 577 00:35:08,920 --> 00:35:12,040 difference, I'll rethink it. And they're all kinds of 578 00:35:12,040 --> 00:35:14,360 specialty items you would never buy from Amazon, right? 579 00:35:14,360 --> 00:35:17,640 But for the most part, the stuff you need day-to-day, and then 580 00:35:17,640 --> 00:35:19,640 all of a sudden now they're a pharmacy. 581 00:35:20,840 --> 00:35:25,440 You can have your your medications fulfilled by Amazon. 582 00:35:27,040 --> 00:35:30,640 My, my goodness, that's that's pretty, pretty good for a 583 00:35:30,640 --> 00:35:33,960 bookstore. Yeah, but nobody thinks of 584 00:35:34,000 --> 00:35:37,160 Amazon as a bookstore anymore. And you're, you're, you're 585 00:35:37,160 --> 00:35:38,760 missing. And all of that is correct. 586 00:35:38,760 --> 00:35:41,840 You're missing one of their important products, which most 587 00:35:41,840 --> 00:35:45,120 people aren't aware of. Amazon sells computing services, 588 00:35:45,720 --> 00:35:48,200 compute, online storage, this sort of thing. 589 00:35:48,200 --> 00:35:54,200 In fact, backinthe.com era, I was with a start up and our 590 00:35:54,200 --> 00:35:58,000 business model was we were, we were selling supercomputation 591 00:35:58,400 --> 00:36:00,560 online. So you could log in and you've 592 00:36:00,560 --> 00:36:03,600 got via the Internet a supercomputer sitting in front 593 00:36:03,600 --> 00:36:06,240 of you. If you only need one for 10 594 00:36:06,240 --> 00:36:09,240 minutes, we'll sell it to you for, you know, we'll rent you 10 595 00:36:09,240 --> 00:36:12,000 minutes on this, on the thing and and you can do this. 596 00:36:13,200 --> 00:36:17,280 Amazon basically is one of the companies that put us out of 597 00:36:17,280 --> 00:36:22,320 business, but it put us out of business because it had much 598 00:36:22,320 --> 00:36:25,080 better hardware, more hardware than what we had. 599 00:36:25,280 --> 00:36:28,480 How did it get it? Because it needed it to sell 600 00:36:28,480 --> 00:36:32,200 books. So basically, Amazon's selling 601 00:36:32,200 --> 00:36:36,960 books at a loss to support buying its hardware that that 602 00:36:36,960 --> 00:36:40,320 actually ended up being its its later product. 603 00:36:40,920 --> 00:36:45,840 I, I, I wait for Amazon to get into the light truck business 604 00:36:46,560 --> 00:36:49,480 because they buy all these light trucks for all their deliveries. 605 00:36:49,720 --> 00:36:51,080 Why not just make them ourselves? 606 00:36:51,080 --> 00:36:53,080 Somebody over there will say sooner or later. 607 00:36:53,440 --> 00:36:55,840 And then you, oh, that's buy yourself an Amazon truck. 608 00:36:56,640 --> 00:36:59,840 That's funny. I'm now imagining Amazon Air. 609 00:37:00,400 --> 00:37:02,280 They're flying. Don't don't they have like the 610 00:37:02,280 --> 00:37:04,720 largest? No, it's UPS has the largest 611 00:37:04,720 --> 00:37:05,800 fleet. Yeah. 612 00:37:05,840 --> 00:37:07,640 Yeah. But you could see something like 613 00:37:07,640 --> 00:37:08,560 that happening. Yeah. 614 00:37:08,720 --> 00:37:11,840 So there are there are all kinds of things that come as secondary 615 00:37:11,840 --> 00:37:15,960 effects when when these sorts of things happen and we don't 616 00:37:15,960 --> 00:37:17,920 really think of how wonderful they all are. 617 00:37:17,920 --> 00:37:22,360 We just look at the one winning company and we say, well, that's 618 00:37:22,360 --> 00:37:25,920 not fair. And you said something really 619 00:37:25,920 --> 00:37:29,800 important a moment ago that the consumer has the final say. 620 00:37:30,640 --> 00:37:33,400 This is something people do not appreciate. 621 00:37:33,440 --> 00:37:36,840 And it it's probably one of the probably the most fundamental 622 00:37:36,840 --> 00:37:42,400 truths of free market economics is the you as an individual 623 00:37:42,400 --> 00:37:46,040 consumer. Maybe the corporation doesn't 624 00:37:46,040 --> 00:37:48,600 care about you because you're going to spend 20 bucks a year 625 00:37:48,600 --> 00:37:53,440 or whatever, but the corporation is terrified of you, plural. 626 00:37:53,840 --> 00:37:58,720 Plural, because if the consumer has the ability to walk away and 627 00:37:58,720 --> 00:38:01,120 take their dollars with them, the corporation dies. 628 00:38:01,360 --> 00:38:04,680 Period. Budweiser still hasn't recovered 629 00:38:04,680 --> 00:38:08,000 from the Bud Light nonsense. That they endured when they 630 00:38:08,000 --> 00:38:12,040 decided that they were going to leave the redneck market and 631 00:38:12,040 --> 00:38:18,520 chase after the LGBTQ market, which, you know, that's just 632 00:38:18,520 --> 00:38:22,320 crazy. It's bud, like, for God's sake, 633 00:38:22,400 --> 00:38:24,480 know your audience, right? Know your audience. 634 00:38:25,080 --> 00:38:27,560 And they, they, they haven't fully recovered from that. 635 00:38:28,440 --> 00:38:29,920 Yeah. Wow. 636 00:38:30,960 --> 00:38:36,040 And people who say that the customer is is unimportant in 637 00:38:36,040 --> 00:38:38,280 the individual instance, they're often correct. 638 00:38:38,520 --> 00:38:40,360 In the aggregate, they're never correct. 639 00:38:41,000 --> 00:38:43,760 Yep, right. I've been mistreated in, in so 640 00:38:43,760 --> 00:38:46,560 many different retail places that I don't even know what to 641 00:38:46,560 --> 00:38:50,280 say about it. And if it's only me and I refuse 642 00:38:50,280 --> 00:38:54,360 to go back to those places, and I often do, no big deal on the 643 00:38:54,360 --> 00:38:58,320 part of the purveyor, But if they treat everybody like that 644 00:38:58,320 --> 00:39:00,080 and everybody stays away, they're out of business real 645 00:39:00,080 --> 00:39:01,360 fast. Right. 646 00:39:01,680 --> 00:39:04,280 And this is where social media becomes so important because 647 00:39:04,280 --> 00:39:06,000 you, you and I do the same thing. 648 00:39:06,000 --> 00:39:07,760 If we have have a bad experience, we have enough 649 00:39:07,760 --> 00:39:11,840 followers, we get online and say something bad and all of a 650 00:39:11,840 --> 00:39:13,960 sudden the company is now bending over backwards to make 651 00:39:13,960 --> 00:39:16,000 it right. Not because they care about us, 652 00:39:16,000 --> 00:39:18,120 they care about all the people who are listening. 653 00:39:18,600 --> 00:39:20,760 That's right. I, I responded to somebody's 654 00:39:20,760 --> 00:39:25,280 tweet not too long ago about pre authorizations in medical care 655 00:39:25,920 --> 00:39:27,440 and I said, yeah, don't I know it. 656 00:39:27,440 --> 00:39:30,960 I'm in the pre authorization limbo with my, my healthcare 657 00:39:30,960 --> 00:39:34,160 provider, LA Blue. It's a Blue Cross Blue Shield 658 00:39:35,280 --> 00:39:38,640 subsidiary. And I didn't give it a second 659 00:39:38,640 --> 00:39:42,560 thought, but I, I tab them in it just to say, you know, what's up 660 00:39:42,560 --> 00:39:46,560 with you guys? And they have an employee whose 661 00:39:46,560 --> 00:39:53,240 job it is to find every negative thing posted on X and she found 662 00:39:53,240 --> 00:39:56,880 it and called me on the phone. She had them dig through their 663 00:39:56,880 --> 00:40:02,040 records to find my phone number so she could call me and say 664 00:40:02,200 --> 00:40:05,120 what can I do to speed this along for you? 665 00:40:06,320 --> 00:40:08,560 Nice, nice. You got to be you got to be 666 00:40:08,560 --> 00:40:11,440 kidding me. It it, it was one of the most 667 00:40:11,440 --> 00:40:13,480 amazing things I've ever experienced. 668 00:40:14,960 --> 00:40:18,720 Was within two days on a throwaway post that I didn't 669 00:40:18,720 --> 00:40:22,480 think twice about, and yet it mattered enough to them to get 670 00:40:22,480 --> 00:40:26,840 me to stop doing that. To, you know, maybe see if I 671 00:40:26,840 --> 00:40:29,160 could be hushed up in some meaningful way. 672 00:40:29,560 --> 00:40:34,080 And turns out I can be. Now let me let me go back in, 673 00:40:34,080 --> 00:40:37,880 offer a criticism, which is people who are listening might 674 00:40:37,880 --> 00:40:40,800 say, OK, I'm following everything you said, the 675 00:40:41,000 --> 00:40:43,600 wondrousness of, you know, the trial and error process and all 676 00:40:43,600 --> 00:40:45,880 of that. But the fact is when a bubble 677 00:40:45,880 --> 00:40:49,120 forms and then it bursts, they're real people who lose 678 00:40:49,120 --> 00:40:53,320 their shirts. To which I reply, but they're, 679 00:40:54,400 --> 00:40:58,080 they're people who were there in the 1st place voluntarily. 680 00:40:58,800 --> 00:41:01,480 No one is required to invest in a bubble. 681 00:41:01,480 --> 00:41:04,240 And if you get caught up in it and say, well, there's only 682 00:41:04,240 --> 00:41:08,280 upside and I'm going to make $1,000,000, you know, and you 683 00:41:08,360 --> 00:41:09,960 end up losing your shirt, that's on you. 684 00:41:10,760 --> 00:41:11,840 I made. A bad call. 685 00:41:12,360 --> 00:41:16,400 Yeah, I had a friend who duringthe.com bubble said I just 686 00:41:16,400 --> 00:41:22,360 bought thousands of shares of this company as CSO or CS Cisco. 687 00:41:22,360 --> 00:41:24,280 Whatever it was, no Cisco. Yeah. 688 00:41:24,520 --> 00:41:26,400 And I said, do you know what that company does? 689 00:41:26,400 --> 00:41:32,280 And he said I can't lose. He lost 3/4 of his investment 690 00:41:32,280 --> 00:41:34,840 within a year of of making it. Yeah. 691 00:41:34,920 --> 00:41:38,040 Absolutely you can lose. You can lose, right? 692 00:41:38,360 --> 00:41:43,280 And regular people tend to lose more as a percentage basis 693 00:41:43,280 --> 00:41:46,160 because they don't have the interior knowledge of the 694 00:41:46,160 --> 00:41:48,360 product in the market that they're investing in. 695 00:41:49,960 --> 00:41:52,760 This is why the S&P 500 beats individual. 696 00:41:53,400 --> 00:41:57,480 The S&P 500 does better than professional fund managers. 697 00:41:57,920 --> 00:41:59,560 You think you can beat it, right? 698 00:41:59,640 --> 00:42:04,640 Probably not. Yeah, it reminds me of something 699 00:42:04,640 --> 00:42:09,000 I ran across recently. It seems to be the case. 700 00:42:09,480 --> 00:42:12,080 This was an article talking about, I believe it was talking 701 00:42:12,080 --> 00:42:15,000 about the AI bubble and the bursting and so forth. 702 00:42:15,360 --> 00:42:19,800 And, and it's the first time I've seen an article that 703 00:42:19,800 --> 00:42:25,000 described, you know, dropping stock prices in a positive tone. 704 00:42:25,000 --> 00:42:29,440 And it was saying there's a great opportunity here for 705 00:42:29,440 --> 00:42:34,160 people to get in at low prices. I'm thinking thank God because 706 00:42:35,440 --> 00:42:40,480 starting back in 1929 with the, the stock market crash, people, 707 00:42:41,040 --> 00:42:44,800 people seem to have this attitude that you should buy in 708 00:42:44,800 --> 00:42:47,920 when the price is high and when the price drops, get out. 709 00:42:48,400 --> 00:42:52,160 That's the exact opposite of what you should be doing. 710 00:42:52,360 --> 00:42:54,840 And now it seems that Americans have had enough. 711 00:42:54,840 --> 00:42:58,400 Americans have had enough experience with stocks that when 712 00:42:58,400 --> 00:43:01,640 the price tanks, they they regard it the same way they 713 00:43:01,640 --> 00:43:05,360 would regard their favorite pair of shoes going on sale. 714 00:43:05,680 --> 00:43:07,760 They say, oh, this is a great time to buy. 715 00:43:08,280 --> 00:43:12,640 Yeah, the best investment I ever made was in the broad markets 716 00:43:13,000 --> 00:43:17,480 couple of days after 911. Yeah, I just watched it, tank 717 00:43:17,480 --> 00:43:20,320 and tank and tank and tank, and I said, well, it's probably 718 00:43:20,320 --> 00:43:21,840 time. Yeah. 719 00:43:22,840 --> 00:43:27,680 You know, and then this is, this is the way buy low, sell high 720 00:43:27,680 --> 00:43:30,680 and, and people's natural inclinations to do the exact 721 00:43:30,680 --> 00:43:32,920 opposite. You know, they buy high on a 722 00:43:32,920 --> 00:43:35,680 wave of good feelings and they sell low as they panic. 723 00:43:37,040 --> 00:43:40,800 But interesting way to maybe leave this one. 724 00:43:41,360 --> 00:43:45,680 And I, I did a little digging not too terribly long ago about 725 00:43:46,400 --> 00:43:50,480 the Tulip bubble in highland the Netherlands. 726 00:43:51,480 --> 00:43:53,080 Turns out it may not have ever happened. 727 00:43:53,960 --> 00:43:56,120 You know, I thought I heard something about that. 728 00:43:56,120 --> 00:43:58,680 And that's that's remarkable because it's like in every 729 00:43:58,680 --> 00:44:02,280 economics principles textbook. It's, it's kind of like the, 730 00:44:04,320 --> 00:44:09,240 the, the cobra problem, right? It's or Isaac. 731 00:44:09,240 --> 00:44:11,520 Newton in the apple falling on his head. 732 00:44:11,520 --> 00:44:15,600 It's in every book. It it leads every story and yet 733 00:44:15,720 --> 00:44:19,320 it probably did not happen. So I, I'm going to get back to 734 00:44:19,320 --> 00:44:21,880 the tulips business one of these days. 735 00:44:22,840 --> 00:44:26,080 Not today, of course. I'm going to watch basketball on 736 00:44:26,080 --> 00:44:29,840 my TV like a normal human being. But one of these days I'm going 737 00:44:29,840 --> 00:44:34,160 to get back to tulips. Because that's the lore, right? 738 00:44:34,160 --> 00:44:39,920 That's the mythology of bubbles. Reality of bubbles might be 739 00:44:39,920 --> 00:44:42,400 very, very different. And I think you and I both think 740 00:44:42,400 --> 00:44:45,360 it is. Anyway, see you next time. 741 00:44:45,360 --> 00:44:51,720 And by next time, I mean next week, because we're back, we're 742 00:44:51,720 --> 00:44:53,560 here, we're something, and we're proud. 743 00:44:53,800 --> 00:44:59,400 And you figure out what we are. And until next time, because I 744 00:44:59,400 --> 00:45:04,040 haven't said it very much in four weeks, Be nice to each 745 00:45:04,040 --> 00:45:06,920 other in these trying times. Everything's going to work out. 746 00:45:06,920 --> 00:45:09,200 It's all right. See you next time, Aunt. 747 00:45:09,560 --> 00:45:10,400 See you next time, James.