1 00:00:02,040 --> 00:00:04,960 Today is the sweet, sweet sounds of my voice brought to you by 2 00:00:04,960 --> 00:00:10,760 Fiscal dot AI, your platform for for the data that you need. 3 00:00:11,000 --> 00:00:14,920 It's fast, it's intelligent, you get your KPIs, you get your 4 00:00:14,920 --> 00:00:18,560 segments, you get all your companies super fast. 5 00:00:18,920 --> 00:00:24,040 I'm telling you, as soon as the filing drops, this stuff is 6 00:00:24,040 --> 00:00:26,440 uploaded. Do you need it? 7 00:00:26,760 --> 00:00:30,520 I don't know have I used it and been happy that the data is 8 00:00:30,520 --> 00:00:34,360 there that quickly? Yes, I have been and every time 9 00:00:34,480 --> 00:00:36,800 for the most part, there's one issue with Charter that they've 10 00:00:36,800 --> 00:00:40,240 got like a weird share structure that physically I doesn't catch, 11 00:00:40,360 --> 00:00:44,720 but nobody would catch that the data is super high quality. 12 00:00:44,720 --> 00:00:50,680 It is very, very transparent. I I have access to the highest 13 00:00:50,680 --> 00:00:52,520 tier. It's auditable. 14 00:00:53,920 --> 00:01:00,040 You know, it's the real deal and you can get up to 15% off using 15 00:01:00,960 --> 00:01:04,920 what is it fiscal dot AI forward slash brew Think that's it 16 00:01:05,160 --> 00:01:06,760 should be it. I should know this. 17 00:01:07,120 --> 00:01:11,160 It's yeah, fiscal dot AI forward slash brew On top of that, they 18 00:01:11,160 --> 00:01:14,800 are running a Black Friday promotion here in the not too 19 00:01:14,800 --> 00:01:17,640 distant future. So check in on that. 20 00:01:18,160 --> 00:01:22,160 And I just, you know, I like Braden, I like the team. 21 00:01:22,160 --> 00:01:23,360 You should listen to the episode. 22 00:01:23,360 --> 00:01:25,960 You should get fiscal AI. You should get it using fiscal 23 00:01:25,960 --> 00:01:28,360 dot AI forward slash brew. You help me out. 24 00:01:29,280 --> 00:01:31,840 It helps the sponsorship continue and I get a little bit 25 00:01:31,840 --> 00:01:33,800 of a kick back of the revenues, which is nice. 26 00:01:34,720 --> 00:01:37,640 Please check it out. As always, nothing in the 27 00:01:37,640 --> 00:01:40,600 following rant is financial advice. 28 00:01:40,880 --> 00:01:42,880 All of it is for entertainment purposes only. 29 00:01:43,400 --> 00:01:45,600 Consult your financial advisor before making investment 30 00:01:45,600 --> 00:01:48,680 decisions and do your own due diligence. 31 00:01:48,720 --> 00:01:50,200 All right, hope you enjoy the episode. 32 00:02:09,000 --> 00:02:11,160 Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the Business Brew. 33 00:02:11,160 --> 00:02:15,440 You're here for a solo episode with Bill Brewster. 34 00:02:18,200 --> 00:02:22,760 Anyway, going to be me today. I thought about starting it out. 35 00:02:23,120 --> 00:02:27,240 Back in the day, I was listening to Miami radio and a guy used to 36 00:02:27,240 --> 00:02:30,600 start things and I was like, what's up, y'all? 37 00:02:30,720 --> 00:02:32,760 What's it going to be? Yeah, you on the mic? 38 00:02:32,760 --> 00:02:35,600 What's your homie Billy Bee? Anyway, he didn't go that way. 39 00:02:35,600 --> 00:02:38,160 That's how I'm going. But anyway, you're welcome for 40 00:02:38,160 --> 00:02:41,600 that. I just want to check in with you 41 00:02:41,600 --> 00:02:43,720 all and say that I am a little bit. 42 00:02:44,240 --> 00:02:46,200 I'm not going to say I'm sorry because I'm not sorry. 43 00:02:46,200 --> 00:02:49,960 That would be fake news. But I apologize for not having a 44 00:02:49,960 --> 00:02:53,040 more regular cadence. The reason has been positive 45 00:02:53,040 --> 00:02:55,920 things going on. I was fortunate to go to 46 00:02:55,920 --> 00:03:00,680 Richmond to see the one and only Saurabh Madan and his group of 47 00:03:00,680 --> 00:03:03,240 investors that get together. That was a very fun time. 48 00:03:03,720 --> 00:03:07,240 Shout out to him for organizing meetings with Markell and 49 00:03:07,240 --> 00:03:10,360 Kinsale. It was interesting to finally 50 00:03:10,360 --> 00:03:15,080 meet the Kinsale people. I somewhat embarrassed to not 51 00:03:15,080 --> 00:03:18,760 know more about the company earlier and going back to the 52 00:03:18,760 --> 00:03:23,360 Fairfax episode that I did with a Sheaf and Charlie, I didn't 53 00:03:23,360 --> 00:03:25,920 know really anything that I should have known going into 54 00:03:25,920 --> 00:03:27,760 that. And and it's especially 55 00:03:27,760 --> 00:03:30,720 embarrassing having owned Berkshire for so long. 56 00:03:30,720 --> 00:03:34,400 But anyway, sometimes, you know, the benefit of having a podcast 57 00:03:34,400 --> 00:03:37,400 is I get to listen back to myself and I'm like, man, you 58 00:03:37,400 --> 00:03:39,160 sound dumb here. You should really brush up on 59 00:03:39,160 --> 00:03:42,760 that. So anyway, I've been brushing up 60 00:03:43,360 --> 00:03:46,520 and my impression from the Kinsale guys is that is a heck 61 00:03:46,520 --> 00:03:50,880 of an organization. The stock multiple may or may 62 00:03:50,880 --> 00:03:53,520 not reflect that. I will tell you that I listened 63 00:03:53,520 --> 00:03:57,520 to a short pitch on it and after the short pitch I said self. 64 00:03:57,560 --> 00:04:01,840 This is something I think I want to own because everything that 65 00:04:01,840 --> 00:04:08,280 the short pitch addressed I kind of got excited about would say 66 00:04:08,280 --> 00:04:10,760 the Georgia case I think has been dismissed. 67 00:04:11,000 --> 00:04:11,960 If you know what I'm talking about. 68 00:04:11,960 --> 00:04:13,080 You know, if you don't, you don't. 69 00:04:13,080 --> 00:04:19,000 But anyway, that was dismissed and I can kind of get behind the 70 00:04:19,000 --> 00:04:21,640 valuation being stretched and I can kind of get behind it on a 71 00:04:21,640 --> 00:04:25,520 cyclical short basis. But I would not bet against that 72 00:04:25,520 --> 00:04:31,160 management team in the long term if I were laying bets. 73 00:04:31,720 --> 00:04:34,760 So for those that can time things, you're smarter than me. 74 00:04:36,920 --> 00:04:40,000 I own a small amount so that I continue to follow the company. 75 00:04:40,000 --> 00:04:44,240 I am inclined to make it bigger over time, but you should 76 00:04:44,240 --> 00:04:46,400 definitely not listen to me for your financial advice. 77 00:04:46,400 --> 00:04:52,000 You should do your own work. I will say that yesterday I'm 78 00:04:52,000 --> 00:04:54,560 address some things on this episode. 79 00:04:55,120 --> 00:04:58,600 Yesterday I was listening to the one and only the big homie John 80 00:04:58,600 --> 00:05:01,640 Malone. I if you've listened to this 81 00:05:01,640 --> 00:05:06,800 long enough or followed me from Value After hours, I know enough 82 00:05:06,800 --> 00:05:10,520 about cable to have lost a decent amount of money in it and 83 00:05:11,000 --> 00:05:13,840 should have listened to smarter people. 84 00:05:14,000 --> 00:05:16,440 Well, people that were more right on the interwebs. 85 00:05:17,040 --> 00:05:20,240 One of which, which really it dismays me to say out loud, but 86 00:05:20,240 --> 00:05:22,480 is Masa Son Capital on the Twitter machine. 87 00:05:24,040 --> 00:05:28,360 It's talk about talk about being sad about being on the wrong end 88 00:05:28,360 --> 00:05:31,760 of a trade with somebody else. But anyway, that's neither here 89 00:05:31,760 --> 00:05:38,600 nor there. Mr. Malone, I would say, was 90 00:05:38,600 --> 00:05:45,440 talking his own book, but also said some things that I just 91 00:05:45,440 --> 00:05:48,680 kind of couldn't get down with. I'm going to share my screen 92 00:05:48,680 --> 00:05:51,400 here for a hot moment. Let's see, we're going to go to 93 00:05:51,400 --> 00:05:57,120 charter on the fiscal AI, which if you don't use the product, 94 00:05:57,120 --> 00:06:01,400 you should. Anyway, Mr. Malone started lying 95 00:06:01,400 --> 00:06:05,440 with numbers a little bit yesterday and let's talk about 96 00:06:05,440 --> 00:06:12,360 the CapEx intensity of cable and he said, you know when our CapEx 97 00:06:13,080 --> 00:06:21,480 went down, we had a run up in the stock to 800 and then once 98 00:06:21,480 --> 00:06:24,240 the CapEx started here we're here we go. 99 00:06:24,360 --> 00:06:27,440 These are repurchases. You'll see a ton of repurchases 100 00:06:27,440 --> 00:06:33,480 in December of 2021. Then he says when CapEx goes up 101 00:06:33,480 --> 00:06:36,680 again, right, not, not an untrue statement. 102 00:06:36,680 --> 00:06:41,080 CapEx did ramp since 2021 as you can see. 103 00:06:41,480 --> 00:06:43,760 If you can't see, hang on, I'm going to give a plug for fiscal 104 00:06:43,760 --> 00:06:44,480 AI. Here we go. 105 00:06:44,520 --> 00:06:47,440 We click that bang. Now you can see, oh, it's a, 106 00:06:47,440 --> 00:06:49,520 it's an inverse chart because we got CapEx. 107 00:06:49,520 --> 00:06:51,440 But anyway you can see that the bar is going down. 108 00:06:52,880 --> 00:06:54,320 He said. Then our stock went down. 109 00:06:56,000 --> 00:06:58,720 This is somewhat true. I will tell you as somebody who 110 00:06:58,720 --> 00:07:03,040 has followed this for a long time, other things coincided 111 00:07:03,240 --> 00:07:07,800 with the stock price going down. One, if you look at a chart of 112 00:07:07,800 --> 00:07:12,360 stocks that go that do well, stocks that go from earning 113 00:07:12,360 --> 00:07:16,240 decent returns on capital to not great returns on capital 114 00:07:16,920 --> 00:07:19,000 generally do not work out very well. 115 00:07:19,960 --> 00:07:24,160 And if you look at the residential customer 116 00:07:24,160 --> 00:07:30,840 relationships on the KPI section of physical dot AI, you will see 117 00:07:30,840 --> 00:07:36,080 that it started to turn over and it turned over at a time when 118 00:07:36,400 --> 00:07:40,440 Charter disparagingly referred to the competition of fixed 119 00:07:40,440 --> 00:07:47,560 wireless as cell phone Internet. And there were interesting signs 120 00:07:47,800 --> 00:07:49,480 of which I actually followed some. 121 00:07:49,480 --> 00:07:51,680 I will give myself some credit. I've been out of Charter for a 122 00:07:51,680 --> 00:07:57,320 while, but one of the little math projects that I was doing 123 00:07:57,320 --> 00:08:01,120 Once Upon a time was when the rural development started. 124 00:08:01,840 --> 00:08:04,360 I, I was doing the math on the connections of the rural 125 00:08:04,360 --> 00:08:06,160 development. And then I said to myself, I 126 00:08:06,160 --> 00:08:11,400 said self, the core plant is starting to lose customers and 127 00:08:11,400 --> 00:08:12,920 no one was really talking about it. 128 00:08:13,960 --> 00:08:18,480 And I started thinking to myself, is it good for returns 129 00:08:18,480 --> 00:08:21,760 on equity and assets to be laying more passings and having 130 00:08:21,760 --> 00:08:24,720 fewer customers? Turns out it's not so good for 131 00:08:24,720 --> 00:08:28,000 those metrics and those aren't so good for the stocks. 132 00:08:28,720 --> 00:08:36,440 So along the time that Charter is investing in the Cap X, 133 00:08:37,159 --> 00:08:42,360 they're bleeding customers. This is an issue and that's the 134 00:08:42,360 --> 00:08:44,600 issue. The issue is that they are 135 00:08:44,600 --> 00:08:53,120 getting attacked from both fiber and fixed wireless, which I 136 00:08:53,120 --> 00:08:55,120 think they may still call cell phone Internet. 137 00:08:56,240 --> 00:09:00,560 And you know, it's just kind of tough to listen to a company and 138 00:09:00,560 --> 00:09:03,680 a management team say this is a parking lot for customers that 139 00:09:03,680 --> 00:09:08,240 we will reacquire and then see their customer relationships 140 00:09:08,240 --> 00:09:12,960 decline while their passings increase and continue to take 141 00:09:12,960 --> 00:09:15,040 them seriously. Another thing that happened that 142 00:09:15,040 --> 00:09:16,800 was kind of interesting, I'm pretty sure it's new Street 143 00:09:16,800 --> 00:09:19,000 research. I clearly don't have access, but 144 00:09:19,000 --> 00:09:22,400 I did get a report and new Street back in the day like 2 145 00:09:22,400 --> 00:09:28,760 years ago said the and I may be misquoting, but this is off 146 00:09:28,760 --> 00:09:30,760 memory. They said the NPS from fixed 147 00:09:30,760 --> 00:09:36,400 wireless is super high and we think that NPS is a leading 148 00:09:36,400 --> 00:09:41,960 indicator of where customers go and therefore we think that 149 00:09:42,120 --> 00:09:48,600 customers are going to go there. And I read that and still we 150 00:09:48,600 --> 00:09:51,120 still weren't having conversations about is cable to 151 00:09:51,120 --> 00:09:55,400 sell. So occasionally if you follow 152 00:09:55,400 --> 00:09:58,280 things close enough, I guess you can make quasi correct 153 00:09:58,280 --> 00:09:59,800 decisions. Probably never should have been 154 00:09:59,800 --> 00:10:02,200 there in the 1st place. I was talking to my man 155 00:10:02,200 --> 00:10:05,800 Francisco today. We both should have just that 156 00:10:05,800 --> 00:10:08,280 Sprint merger is the one that haunts us because then we could 157 00:10:08,280 --> 00:10:11,440 have, could have own T-Mobile. And I remember I was standing 158 00:10:11,440 --> 00:10:19,040 outside on my patio Once Upon a time when I had one and we were 159 00:10:19,040 --> 00:10:21,520 talking about that deal and I was pretty sure the merger would 160 00:10:21,520 --> 00:10:25,440 get through in. Alas, I did not buy 1. 161 00:10:25,440 --> 00:10:27,800 So a mistake or did not buy that so a mistake. 162 00:10:27,800 --> 00:10:32,240 I'll rub my face in. But I just think, you know, the 163 00:10:32,240 --> 00:10:39,800 narrative of capital intensity has gone up and therefore that's 164 00:10:39,800 --> 00:10:45,760 why the stock has gone down. Or, or then then, and I do not 165 00:10:45,760 --> 00:10:47,240 mean this to disparage John Malone. 166 00:10:47,240 --> 00:10:50,560 He is the man. I am just me, but the, the 167 00:10:50,560 --> 00:10:55,520 suggestion of a dividend to support the stock price almost 168 00:10:55,520 --> 00:10:59,120 offended me as a, as a, you know, somebody who's followed 169 00:10:59,120 --> 00:11:03,120 him. I get that they want to signal 170 00:11:03,120 --> 00:11:05,320 to the market that there's sustainable cash flow. 171 00:11:06,080 --> 00:11:08,680 The issue is when you have operating leverage, financial 172 00:11:08,680 --> 00:11:12,840 leverage and customers that don't like you and your metrics 173 00:11:12,840 --> 00:11:15,840 roll over and your gross profit starting to decline for the 174 00:11:15,840 --> 00:11:20,160 first time and you got fewer connections and you got pricing 175 00:11:20,160 --> 00:11:23,960 power issues questions. I live in a Comcast 176 00:11:23,960 --> 00:11:26,360 neighborhood. I just signed a deal with them 177 00:11:26,960 --> 00:11:30,520 to lock in my price, up my Internet, lock in my price for 178 00:11:30,520 --> 00:11:36,840 five years at a lower cost than I was paying, right. 179 00:11:36,840 --> 00:11:40,160 So you got some some questions about pricing power stocks 180 00:11:40,160 --> 00:11:41,680 probably not going to go anywhere positive. 181 00:11:41,720 --> 00:11:43,080 I don't think a dividend helps that. 182 00:11:43,160 --> 00:11:48,560 That's just me. I'm also going to, here's 183 00:11:48,560 --> 00:11:50,720 another thing that has been fun in my life. 184 00:11:52,000 --> 00:11:56,360 I call Comcast. I said, hey, I know that you got 185 00:11:56,360 --> 00:11:58,760 a new plan. I'm on rack, right? 186 00:11:59,880 --> 00:12:03,840 What do you have? They say, oh, Mr. Brewster, we 187 00:12:03,840 --> 00:12:05,800 got this and you can add a phone line. 188 00:12:06,240 --> 00:12:08,320 I said I'd like to add the phone line to that because I don't 189 00:12:08,320 --> 00:12:10,600 really want to pay for two phone lines if I only have to pay for 190 00:12:10,600 --> 00:12:15,400 one. Sorry for the nose issue. 191 00:12:15,400 --> 00:12:20,960 Anyway, so I'm on the phone with a lovely man and I said to him, 192 00:12:20,960 --> 00:12:23,680 I said OK. Now I just want to make sure 193 00:12:23,920 --> 00:12:26,840 that when I connect this phone line, this is my wife's phone 194 00:12:26,840 --> 00:12:27,880 line. It's not my phone line. 195 00:12:27,880 --> 00:12:32,000 So any mistakes are a bigger issue in my life when it's her 196 00:12:32,000 --> 00:12:35,120 stuff. So plus she's had this number 197 00:12:35,120 --> 00:12:38,960 since she was like 16, right? I go to the guy, I go just don't 198 00:12:38,960 --> 00:12:42,400 do anything to the number. Whatever you do, I do not care. 199 00:12:42,400 --> 00:12:46,480 This is a billing issue. Just connect her phone to our 200 00:12:46,480 --> 00:12:49,920 plan and let's keep it moving. OK, Mr. Brewster, Nothing will 201 00:12:49,920 --> 00:12:52,200 happen to her number. OK, great. 202 00:12:53,040 --> 00:12:55,040 I get off the phone, I go to sleep. 203 00:12:55,240 --> 00:12:58,920 I'm happy I've saved. I think it was like 80 bucks a 204 00:12:58,920 --> 00:13:01,880 month. So that's almost $1000 a year. 205 00:13:01,960 --> 00:13:06,840 That's like money. Real money can pay for maybe 16% 206 00:13:06,840 --> 00:13:14,120 of my healthcare insurance jump. Anyway, dude goes, oh, I go to 207 00:13:14,120 --> 00:13:16,400 call my wife because I woke up in the morning. 208 00:13:16,400 --> 00:13:18,160 I said I really hope her phone works. 209 00:13:18,160 --> 00:13:21,040 I just had a premonition. They cancelled the freaking 210 00:13:21,040 --> 00:13:25,280 number. How is it that you have an offer 211 00:13:25,960 --> 00:13:29,280 and I want to take your offer and you end up cancelling a 212 00:13:29,280 --> 00:13:31,640 fucking number? How does that happen? 213 00:13:32,120 --> 00:13:36,800 So when you want to know why your EBITDA or your EV to EBITDA 214 00:13:36,800 --> 00:13:38,600 is like 5, it's because you suck. 215 00:13:38,720 --> 00:13:42,480 Like you suck at business. And the thing that is 216 00:13:42,480 --> 00:13:46,080 frustrating, and I guess that Mister Malone is a much more 217 00:13:46,080 --> 00:13:48,320 public figure than I am and he can't say it, but like 218 00:13:48,320 --> 00:13:52,480 fundamentally these companies need to seamlessly transition 219 00:13:52,480 --> 00:13:54,480 customers to their best offering. 220 00:13:54,840 --> 00:13:57,880 Charters got a freaking slide in their earnings deck. 221 00:13:58,400 --> 00:14:00,160 They show that they save customers. 222 00:14:00,200 --> 00:14:02,160 I want to say it's like 1800 bucks a year. 223 00:14:02,560 --> 00:14:06,200 Maybe I'm lying. Do your own research, maybe it's 224 00:14:06,200 --> 00:14:08,800 only 1200. Either way, their contention is 225 00:14:08,800 --> 00:14:11,800 that they save customers a whole lot of money if they take the 226 00:14:11,800 --> 00:14:14,560 bundled offering from Charter. I think it's a plausible 227 00:14:14,560 --> 00:14:16,200 explanation. I've actually always kind of 228 00:14:16,200 --> 00:14:18,160 thought that cable companies were good at bundling. 229 00:14:18,880 --> 00:14:21,680 My biggest issue with Comcast is I thought they should have 230 00:14:21,680 --> 00:14:25,400 dropped the fees on the Xfinity video product because I still 231 00:14:25,400 --> 00:14:27,720 think to this day it's the best video product out there. 232 00:14:27,720 --> 00:14:29,920 But you know, they're addicted to the rental fees, so they 233 00:14:29,920 --> 00:14:34,680 can't anyway. They just need to put their best 234 00:14:34,680 --> 00:14:38,320 foot forward to customers. And then maybe the loyalty will 235 00:14:38,320 --> 00:14:41,920 start and then maybe the pricing power will begin to manifest 236 00:14:41,920 --> 00:14:43,920 itself. And then maybe the growth will 237 00:14:43,920 --> 00:14:47,080 continue and, and God forbid they start actually getting 238 00:14:47,080 --> 00:14:50,560 connections. I mean, look, everything that 239 00:14:50,560 --> 00:14:53,440 I'm saying, these stocks are cheap now that's some value 240 00:14:53,440 --> 00:14:55,720 investor shit. And that can really get you 241 00:14:55,720 --> 00:14:57,920 burned. I don't, I don't know if it's 242 00:14:57,920 --> 00:15:01,760 smarter to wait for the turn and the inflection in the numbers or 243 00:15:01,760 --> 00:15:05,360 if you just kind of close your eyes and say there is a case to 244 00:15:05,360 --> 00:15:09,520 be made that Charter can probably retire 10% of their 245 00:15:09,520 --> 00:15:13,040 shares if they have the guts to keep their buyback on. 246 00:15:13,040 --> 00:15:17,160 Because sometimes buybacks can be pro cyclical and you're 247 00:15:17,160 --> 00:15:20,080 getting like a mid teens free cash flow yield, which on a per 248 00:15:20,080 --> 00:15:23,880 share basis, which are famous last words, you got a mid, you 249 00:15:23,880 --> 00:15:27,560 got like a high teens, low 20s compounder there. 250 00:15:29,480 --> 00:15:31,960 That said, a lot of operating leverage, a lot of financial 251 00:15:31,960 --> 00:15:34,200 leverage. SO20 can become 12 real quick 252 00:15:34,200 --> 00:15:36,440 and you know, do your own models and what not. 253 00:15:36,440 --> 00:15:41,880 But I don't know, it was crazy. I usually, I, I mean, I still 254 00:15:41,880 --> 00:15:44,880 look forward to Malone talking. And I thought, I thought what he 255 00:15:44,880 --> 00:15:48,080 said in in the investor day was quite a bit better than in the 256 00:15:48,080 --> 00:15:51,480 interview with Mr. Faber, who is a GOAT interviewer. 257 00:15:52,040 --> 00:15:55,240 But man, I stuff, I was here and I was like, this is some cope. 258 00:15:56,320 --> 00:16:01,840 And I just don't, I feel like these wireless companies are are 259 00:16:02,000 --> 00:16:05,480 on on the attack. The thing I never was able to 260 00:16:05,560 --> 00:16:10,240 reconcile with the cable bowl pitch is it was always, it was 261 00:16:10,240 --> 00:16:12,960 always sort of like wireless isn't economic. 262 00:16:13,320 --> 00:16:17,080 So they won't keep doing what they're doing, but they've 263 00:16:17,080 --> 00:16:20,200 always done it in the past. I bought into the fact that 264 00:16:20,200 --> 00:16:24,200 there wasn't enough capacity. Turns out I'm not a wireless 265 00:16:24,200 --> 00:16:28,920 engineer and miss that pretty bigly, but I'd argue the entire 266 00:16:28,920 --> 00:16:32,280 industry missed it, which by the way, is why no one trusts you 267 00:16:32,920 --> 00:16:36,720 when you're buying in your shares and you always have like 268 00:16:37,200 --> 00:16:40,040 there's no signal here. So we'll see. 269 00:16:41,120 --> 00:16:44,160 B Rob from Comcast, he just put in his bid for Warner Brothers. 270 00:16:44,160 --> 00:16:46,800 Hopefully he went ham on that because I actually do think that 271 00:16:46,800 --> 00:16:50,040 would be the not the best combination. 272 00:16:50,040 --> 00:16:54,560 Probably Netflix is a better one just from a distribution 273 00:16:54,560 --> 00:16:56,760 standpoint, but it would be interesting to see what Comcast 274 00:16:56,760 --> 00:16:59,640 could do with the IP that that Warner Brothers has. 275 00:17:00,200 --> 00:17:02,240 They probably don't have the financial backing to actually 276 00:17:02,240 --> 00:17:05,480 get it done. But that was kind of an 277 00:17:05,480 --> 00:17:10,520 interesting little moment for me yesterday. 278 00:17:10,960 --> 00:17:13,760 I can't I part of me wants to put my hand in the fire right 279 00:17:13,760 --> 00:17:15,720 now, though. Man, these the stocks are cheap 280 00:17:15,720 --> 00:17:20,560 but is scary. There's another stock that I 281 00:17:20,560 --> 00:17:25,880 can't really mention because it's small that like has 282 00:17:25,880 --> 00:17:29,040 inflected and the CE OS are buying. 283 00:17:29,120 --> 00:17:34,560 Well, the CEO bought in May. Some other people bought and 284 00:17:35,560 --> 00:17:38,080 that one's kind of got more of my attention because the numbers 285 00:17:38,080 --> 00:17:40,840 have turned. It's a little bit scary to say, 286 00:17:41,120 --> 00:17:44,320 well, you know, the numbers are going in the wrong way, but it's 287 00:17:44,320 --> 00:17:47,200 cheap. That is a great way to lose a 288 00:17:47,200 --> 00:17:50,080 whole lot of money. Bed Bath and Beyond was the king 289 00:17:50,080 --> 00:17:57,200 of the buy back into continued decelerating financials and news 290 00:17:57,200 --> 00:17:58,800 flash, that didn't turn out so hot. 291 00:18:00,160 --> 00:18:03,880 So, so there's that. What else have I been doing? 292 00:18:03,880 --> 00:18:06,720 I went to Houston. Shout out to Chad Garcia and 293 00:18:07,680 --> 00:18:09,560 Scott Weber for hooking me up out there. 294 00:18:09,560 --> 00:18:14,520 That was fun. Got to see the people at NRP, 295 00:18:14,520 --> 00:18:16,920 which was kind of interesting. I like how they think about 296 00:18:16,920 --> 00:18:19,600 things. And then Chad took me over to 297 00:18:19,600 --> 00:18:23,560 Land Bridge, which is a very interesting organization and 298 00:18:23,560 --> 00:18:33,320 Chad has done podcasts on them and secure at I think Yabby, yet 299 00:18:33,320 --> 00:18:36,680 another value blog. So I would I would recommend 300 00:18:36,760 --> 00:18:39,680 checking those out if you're kind of interested in something 301 00:18:40,360 --> 00:18:41,640 that you may not have thought about. 302 00:18:42,040 --> 00:18:45,560 James Vallas. The Eris pitch here was somewhat 303 00:18:45,560 --> 00:18:47,360 similar, though a little bit different. 304 00:18:47,720 --> 00:18:51,360 Landbridge and Waterbridge are slightly different than those. 305 00:18:51,360 --> 00:18:55,960 So I don't know. Can't stop thinking about how 306 00:18:55,960 --> 00:19:01,320 cheap some stuff looks. I mean Twitter, Twitter fave in 307 00:19:01,320 --> 00:19:09,160 a in a little sub cult AMN that feels ripe for 2026. 308 00:19:09,160 --> 00:19:11,920 Not my idea. People much smarter than me are 309 00:19:12,480 --> 00:19:17,240 are pitching that one Olin. I mean Olin's one of those that 310 00:19:17,240 --> 00:19:19,640 like man, we talking about COVID lows. 311 00:19:21,240 --> 00:19:22,640 I don't know. I don't cover it. 312 00:19:24,000 --> 00:19:26,720 People smarter than me say that Buffett transaction is a pretty 313 00:19:26,720 --> 00:19:30,000 good comp. You got some smart investors 314 00:19:30,000 --> 00:19:33,480 that like it. It's it's interesting. 315 00:19:33,480 --> 00:19:37,200 I was talking to somebody who knows what the hell they're 316 00:19:37,200 --> 00:19:41,600 talking about. And I said, you know, why do you 317 00:19:41,600 --> 00:19:45,560 think that your business is not bigger today than it then your 318 00:19:45,560 --> 00:19:49,160 returns might justify it or suggest it should be. 319 00:19:50,360 --> 00:19:56,320 And he said that if he were willing to do a model that was 320 00:19:56,320 --> 00:20:01,720 market neutral, that he he thinks he could have a much 321 00:20:01,720 --> 00:20:04,040 bigger business. But. 322 00:20:04,640 --> 00:20:08,000 He runs a lot of friends and family money and it and his own 323 00:20:08,000 --> 00:20:12,160 capital. And my sense is he cares a lot 324 00:20:12,160 --> 00:20:17,600 about compounding, you know, like for himself and for the the 325 00:20:17,600 --> 00:20:20,640 people that he's committed to compounding on behalf of. 326 00:20:20,640 --> 00:20:23,760 And he was just talking about portable alpha where, you know, 327 00:20:23,760 --> 00:20:28,160 the institutions want the manager to to just deliver 328 00:20:28,160 --> 00:20:30,040 straight alpha and then they buy cheap beta. 329 00:20:30,760 --> 00:20:35,720 And I said, do you think that the market structure has changed 330 00:20:35,720 --> 00:20:43,600 in any way lately? And his commentary was that if 331 00:20:43,600 --> 00:20:46,800 you go to sell a position through the day, they're just 332 00:20:46,800 --> 00:20:48,680 like real pockets of illiquidity. 333 00:20:49,440 --> 00:20:55,040 And, you know, he feels like the, some of his orders can 334 00:20:55,040 --> 00:20:58,800 almost be front run by the high frequency guys, which is not 335 00:20:58,800 --> 00:21:00,320 like a unique thought, I don't think. 336 00:21:00,320 --> 00:21:04,520 But it, it's interesting to to talk to somebody who is 337 00:21:04,520 --> 00:21:09,120 definitively skilled, has has returns, has been around the 338 00:21:09,120 --> 00:21:14,720 industry for a very long time. And just kind of talking to him 339 00:21:14,720 --> 00:21:18,840 about some of the issues that he's had raising capital. 340 00:21:19,880 --> 00:21:23,960 And you know, just through this journey, I've, I've been 341 00:21:23,960 --> 00:21:25,360 fortunate to talk to some people. 342 00:21:25,360 --> 00:21:30,040 And I remember, I mean, I think Tidewater was at like 40 or so. 343 00:21:30,640 --> 00:21:35,000 And I called somebody and I said, you know, what do you 344 00:21:35,000 --> 00:21:36,840 think about? I might have written them. 345 00:21:37,160 --> 00:21:40,200 I don't want to lie here, but we were, we were communicating. 346 00:21:41,320 --> 00:21:43,480 And I said, what do you think about Tidewater here? 347 00:21:43,600 --> 00:21:48,880 And he said, you know, I like it, but I'm not Bob or body and 348 00:21:48,880 --> 00:21:52,120 I don't have the LP base that's going to let me take a draw down 349 00:21:52,120 --> 00:21:56,640 on that name, especially when the markets doing really well. 350 00:21:58,480 --> 00:22:04,000 And it's just got me, you know, thinking about how what is going 351 00:22:04,000 --> 00:22:08,560 on in investment, how I should structure my life, what I really 352 00:22:08,560 --> 00:22:11,360 truly believe and going back to cable. 353 00:22:11,360 --> 00:22:15,320 Tell me who the buyer is. All the people that used to talk 354 00:22:15,320 --> 00:22:19,400 about cable done ping them, say what do you think about cable? 355 00:22:20,040 --> 00:22:22,240 They didn't none of them want to go back in that water. 356 00:22:23,240 --> 00:22:28,880 I mean, it's it's scary shit. So you know, what does that say 357 00:22:28,880 --> 00:22:31,240 about the opportunity, the potential opportunity? 358 00:22:31,600 --> 00:22:34,000 I don't know. For the record, I don't own them 359 00:22:34,280 --> 00:22:38,320 so. But if one were to say how do 360 00:22:38,320 --> 00:22:44,440 things get cheap, the fact pattern here might suggest this 361 00:22:44,440 --> 00:22:46,640 is how it happens. It would be nice to see some 362 00:22:46,640 --> 00:22:49,480 management teams come out of their fat pockets and buy some 363 00:22:49,480 --> 00:22:52,680 stock. You know, I'll tell you another 364 00:22:52,680 --> 00:22:54,560 one that's it's kind of interesting to me. 365 00:22:54,800 --> 00:22:57,920 It's been interesting, been not interesting, been interesting. 366 00:22:58,360 --> 00:23:03,800 Disney seems to be at the point where they got the assets and 367 00:23:03,800 --> 00:23:06,640 the timing is right. Can't stand Eiger. 368 00:23:07,040 --> 00:23:10,400 That's my issue. I know some people like him. 369 00:23:10,480 --> 00:23:12,400 I think you're all wrong. I think you're enamored. 370 00:23:12,400 --> 00:23:14,600 He's got a great smile, he's got beautiful skin. 371 00:23:14,600 --> 00:23:16,240 He's got charisma. I get it. 372 00:23:16,280 --> 00:23:18,440 That's how he became the CEO of that organization. 373 00:23:18,760 --> 00:23:22,440 I've seen that man hollow out the C-Suite and knife successors 374 00:23:22,760 --> 00:23:25,840 for like 8 years now. I'm not convinced he's ever 375 00:23:25,840 --> 00:23:31,440 going away. So I don't, that's the part that 376 00:23:31,440 --> 00:23:34,040 I don't like. But at some point you're, you're 377 00:23:34,040 --> 00:23:36,360 on the other end of the, you know, the, the what do they say 378 00:23:36,360 --> 00:23:41,280 the snake has swallowed the pig? Yeah. 379 00:23:41,520 --> 00:23:44,280 The next logical step is that the snake poops. 380 00:23:45,560 --> 00:23:47,240 You don't want to own the poop that I know you. 381 00:23:47,240 --> 00:23:48,320 I think you want to own the snake. 382 00:23:48,320 --> 00:23:50,280 I think the snake gets bigger. I think we're buying the snake 383 00:23:50,280 --> 00:23:52,040 in this hypo. I don't think we're buying the 384 00:23:52,040 --> 00:23:53,680 poop. You were buying the poop. 385 00:23:53,680 --> 00:23:57,120 But anyway, I have really derailed that conversation. 386 00:23:58,560 --> 00:24:00,080 So. Yeah. 387 00:24:01,080 --> 00:24:03,440 So that's that. I don't know if you're asking, 388 00:24:03,440 --> 00:24:05,960 you know, as a host, if you're, if you're curious how the host 389 00:24:05,960 --> 00:24:10,440 has been doing in the markets. I will tell you that I barely 390 00:24:10,440 --> 00:24:13,800 even knew that there was a draw down going on because going into 391 00:24:13,800 --> 00:24:18,520 this, I was not exactly participating in the upside to 392 00:24:18,520 --> 00:24:22,760 those that were following clear point and cure. 393 00:24:23,440 --> 00:24:26,360 I am sorry for what happened with Uni cure. 394 00:24:27,040 --> 00:24:30,120 I am even more sorry for the patients. 395 00:24:30,840 --> 00:24:37,240 I, you know, and clear point was a home run for me. 396 00:24:37,240 --> 00:24:40,800 It was a small position. It's an interesting thing for me 397 00:24:40,800 --> 00:24:45,480 to think about because I have these tensions between should 398 00:24:45,480 --> 00:24:48,400 you be very diversified or should you be concentrated? 399 00:24:48,400 --> 00:24:53,480 And it's wild to see. I mean, now between meta and 400 00:24:53,480 --> 00:24:59,080 clear .22% positions ended up well, meta was 3. 401 00:24:59,080 --> 00:25:06,480 But anyway, have really like driven a lot of return and both 402 00:25:06,480 --> 00:25:09,600 of those are realized. So the tax is kind of hurt, but 403 00:25:10,520 --> 00:25:14,120 that's that's a the rest of the portfolio needed it. 404 00:25:14,400 --> 00:25:17,760 It's we're not we're not owning Palantir and Bitcoin out here. 405 00:25:18,120 --> 00:25:21,040 So well, I understand that that the past week might not have 406 00:25:21,040 --> 00:25:23,760 been fun or month for those people that own that stuff like, 407 00:25:23,920 --> 00:25:27,040 you know, zoom out. Are you doing OK? 408 00:25:29,080 --> 00:25:33,960 So I don't know, it's an interesting time and I just 409 00:25:33,960 --> 00:25:38,920 like, I really feel like a basket of beating up shit would 410 00:25:38,920 --> 00:25:40,680 do really well coming out of here. 411 00:25:44,880 --> 00:25:47,320 I, I don't know, pick, pick your own beating up stuff. 412 00:25:47,320 --> 00:25:53,240 But it's it's interesting and like there's some real, real 413 00:25:53,240 --> 00:25:56,440 businesses trading at what appear to be some pretty decent 414 00:25:56,440 --> 00:25:59,520 valuations. I I sometimes I like to check 415 00:25:59,520 --> 00:26:01,200 Morningstar. I just see like, Hey, how many 416 00:26:01,200 --> 00:26:05,600 four and five star stocks are there just as like a a gauge and 417 00:26:05,600 --> 00:26:07,400 the list is starting to get populated. 418 00:26:07,960 --> 00:26:11,120 You know, I don't know how many wide Moat compounder E type you 419 00:26:11,120 --> 00:26:16,560 can find, but I I think you can do pretty well out there if you 420 00:26:16,560 --> 00:26:20,880 keep your head about you. But the buying isn't as hard as 421 00:26:20,880 --> 00:26:26,720 the owning in my experience. So man, GE, that's why that's 422 00:26:26,720 --> 00:26:30,160 one. I never would have been able to 423 00:26:30,160 --> 00:26:34,200 hold it through COVID probably, but man, that hurts to see that. 424 00:26:34,200 --> 00:26:40,560 But anyway, Long story short, I think there will never be a 425 00:26:40,560 --> 00:26:43,360 shortage of opportunities for the enterprising investor. 426 00:26:44,640 --> 00:26:47,960 I still think the S&P is 1 hell of a beast to try to beat on a 427 00:26:48,000 --> 00:26:54,800 on a tax adjusted basis. And it's just hard to look at 428 00:26:54,920 --> 00:26:59,240 the studies of how many companies fail, how much of 429 00:26:59,240 --> 00:27:03,280 return is driven by so few, and not think that a tax advantage 430 00:27:03,280 --> 00:27:07,560 rapper that that is guaranteed to capture the right tail is a 431 00:27:07,560 --> 00:27:11,240 great investment vehicle. It's also really hard for me to 432 00:27:11,240 --> 00:27:14,480 look at how highly valued the right tail is relative to 433 00:27:14,480 --> 00:27:17,200 everything else and think that's where you want to be right now. 434 00:27:20,080 --> 00:27:23,160 Equal weight makes some sense. I do like that open AI is 435 00:27:23,160 --> 00:27:24,920 finally saying that there's some bad vibes. 436 00:27:24,920 --> 00:27:27,880 That dude gives me bad vibes. Sam Altman. 437 00:27:28,480 --> 00:27:31,960 I mean shout out to you for having people that follow you 438 00:27:31,960 --> 00:27:34,800 and will you can issue equity at apparently a bajillion dollars 439 00:27:34,800 --> 00:27:37,120 and no one gives a shit. But like, you creep me out bro. 440 00:27:37,120 --> 00:27:39,320 I don't. I don't know that I like that 441 00:27:39,320 --> 00:27:44,640 guy dictating where the world is going, but it's a train that I 442 00:27:44,640 --> 00:27:48,320 can't stop so might as well learn how to use the tools. 443 00:27:48,520 --> 00:27:51,200 Was using Gemini yesterday. Shout out to the Google. 444 00:27:51,200 --> 00:27:53,040 Everybody likes Google stocks high. 445 00:27:53,360 --> 00:27:58,000 I got, I got people sending me. Somebody had the gall, the 446 00:27:58,000 --> 00:28:03,760 audacity to send me a picture of Satya standing there watching 447 00:28:03,880 --> 00:28:08,680 Sundar dance. I mean, if that's not a top 448 00:28:08,680 --> 00:28:14,320 signal, tell me what is. Satya's just sitting there in a 449 00:28:14,320 --> 00:28:16,160 dance floor, disco ball everywhere. 450 00:28:16,160 --> 00:28:20,560 He's got to sit here and watch while Sundar has all the fun. 451 00:28:21,640 --> 00:28:23,720 It's not right. It's not right. 452 00:28:25,240 --> 00:28:28,880 Meanwhile, Zuck says I'm a spend a bajillion dollars again. 453 00:28:29,960 --> 00:28:33,040 I guess the good news is he's got no history of spending a 454 00:28:33,040 --> 00:28:35,320 bajillion dollars with no returns. 455 00:28:36,120 --> 00:28:38,440 I realize there's returns and family of apps. 456 00:28:38,440 --> 00:28:40,960 The revenues have been crazy. I get it, I get it. 457 00:28:41,040 --> 00:28:42,680 I'm just saying it's a whole lot. 458 00:28:42,680 --> 00:28:47,480 I promise CapEx. But Andrew Friedman thinks it's 459 00:28:47,480 --> 00:28:49,600 a double or at least tweeted it. I don't know if he actually 460 00:28:49,600 --> 00:28:51,760 thinks that You should sub to his service to see. 461 00:28:52,240 --> 00:28:54,400 You should also sub to fiscal dot AI. 462 00:28:55,000 --> 00:28:58,200 And I probably won't, probably won't be doing another one of 463 00:28:58,200 --> 00:29:00,040 these by Thanksgiving. So you should have yourself a 464 00:29:00,040 --> 00:29:04,480 hell of a Thanksgiving. And thank you for listening to 465 00:29:04,480 --> 00:29:07,680 my little rant. I was I've I've been told by a 466 00:29:07,680 --> 00:29:10,000 couple of people that they want to hear a little bit more of me. 467 00:29:10,600 --> 00:29:12,160 I don't know that that's actually a good thing. 468 00:29:12,160 --> 00:29:14,600 But here it is today. Shout out to you all. 469 00:29:14,600 --> 00:29:16,880 Shout out to the 10 man, the people that have been down to 470 00:29:16,880 --> 00:29:21,960 ride since day one. And I hope you all have just a 471 00:29:21,960 --> 00:29:26,480 really family focused week next week and I hope it is fantastic. 472 00:29:26,480 --> 00:29:29,800 All right, that's all I got. Goodbye. 473 00:30:01,880 --> 00:30:32,000 None. The.