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Ladies and gentlemen, welcome 
back to the Business Brew. 

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Nice to be recording again and 
releasing episodes. 

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Thank you for your patience 
while you waited for my sweet, 

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sweet voice. 
And by my sweet, sweet voice, I 

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mean the insights of my guests 
and my ability to hopefully ask 

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decent questions that keep a 
conversation going. 

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Anyway, I digress. 
This episode features Will 

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Thompson. 
He returns for the three of our 

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conversations. 
I met will a long time ago. 

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I think it I don't know 
2018-2019 at Emmanuel events 

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idea liked him then still like 
him now you know kept in not 

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frequent touch but in touch with
Will and he's a great guy. 

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So I'm happy to feature him nice
to see him have some positive 

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like results. 
One of the guys that can't comes

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on the show no matter what I'm 
I'm on the outside looking in 

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cheering for him. 
So I hope that you all like this

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conversation. 
The last one I think I titled 

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the real assets are so hot right
now. 

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Turned out to be a pretty good 
pretty good timing of an 

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episode. 
A little early, but that's 

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that's kind of the MO around 
these parts. 

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And I think you'll find some 
interesting thoughts on copper, 

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gold, and oil, all of which are 
on top of mind right now. 

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So anyway, I hope you enjoy the 
episode. 

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I know I enjoyed talking to him 
and excited to release this one.

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All right, Oh, I almost forgot. 
Disclaimers. 

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Let's see, what do they say? 
Everything in this episode is 

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for entertainment purposes only.
Please consult your financial 

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advisor before making investment
decisions. 

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Do your own due diligence and 
this episode is brought to you 

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by Trata. 
You can find Trata at 

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tritrata.com/brew. 
Trata is a transcript library 

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that has interviews of analyst 
and analyst. 

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So you know, the difference is 
sometimes you'll get on the 

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major transcript platforms and 
it'll be an analyst talking to 

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an expert and maybe that 
platform is trying to fill some 

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space and you get a lot of 
filler. 

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I have found the transcripts on 
Trata to be a higher level of 

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discussion. 
I was flipping through today a 

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constellation transcript that 
dropped. 

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It looks like it was recorded on
the 23rd. 

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One analyst says. 
The largest concern for me and 

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why we're not long the stock 
today is inorganic growth. 

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When you look at growth and 
disaggregate it on an organic 

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side, they might take 2 to 3% a 
year in price, but the inorganic

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growth engine has really been 
the bread and butter, yadda 

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yadda. 
So then you're reading and 

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Analyst 2 says Constellation's 
market share, transaction share 

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has grown since 2021. 
This is completely contrary to 

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the consensus view, which is 
that competition has ramped up 

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in the last 18 months. 
I think a number of copycats 

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launched in the last 12 months 
is probably lower than in the 12

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months before that. 
I think the number of copycats 

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launched in the last 12 months 
is probably lower than the 12 

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months before that. 
End of the day I find that these

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transcripts identify an issue 
and then you can hear 2 analysts

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going back and forth on the 
issue. 

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So if that's the type of product
that could be additive to your 

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00:03:43,480 --> 00:03:49,720
process you should try Trata. 
And again Trata is try 

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trata.com/brew. 
If for any reason that doesn't 

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work try try trata.com and ping 
me and say you'll build the 

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affiliate links. 
Not working. 

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So you may not be getting all 
the props that you deserve and 

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you deserve the props anyway. 
That is what they do. 

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I have found the there's value 
in these transcripts. 

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So if this is something that 
your process involves, try 

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Trata. 
This episode is also brought to 

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you by the OG sponsor fiscal dot
AI. 

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You already know the pitch. 
If you don't, you should listen 

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to the episode with Brayden 
Dennis, in part because it's a 

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great episode of, you know, like
one, he's a good guy to 

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interview, 2, he's a good guy 
period. 3. 

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I find that to be a good 
business episode. 

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And he lays out what they're 
doing with fiscal AI. 

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Historically, these reads have 
sort of focused on, hey, if 

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I'm going to, I'm going to skew 
this read a little bit more 

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towards the enterprise folks, 
especially with cloud code and 

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all this vibe coding going on. 
If you need data that you can 

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pull into your own models or 
your own processes at a more 

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sophisticated level and an 
enterprise level, I would highly

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They believe that they can 
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you would have to pay a much 
larger, much more expensive data

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provider. 
They think that they can do it 

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for a lot cheaper and that means
that you're winning and they're 

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winning and that's win win and 
that's good stuff. 

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So go to fiscal dot AI forward 
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the product with a discount and 
do reach out to Braden and his 

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team for the enterprise level 
stuff. 

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If that is something that may 
interest you, it is probably 

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worth your time. 
All right, ladies and gentlemen,

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back from a brief hiatus with 
the one and only Will Thompson 

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for V3, I think. 
Believe so, yeah. 

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Last time I titled it I think 
Real assets are So Hot right Now

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and it turned out to be a pretty
apropos time. 

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So we'll see, I think. 
It was 2024, so you were you 

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were slightly ahead of the 
curve. 

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This is my problem. 
I'm just 12 months ahead of the 

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curve. 
That's, you know, as far as I'm 

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concerned, that's. 
Yeah, that's enough to get you 

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fired. 
Yeah, that's fair. 

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Yeah. 
Oh well, it's enough to get you 

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fired in a pod shop or something
in the in the rest of the world 

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12 months. 
I mean, that's, you know, 

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directly on target. 
Well, that that worked out by 

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happenstance, but you want to, 
you know, you just released your

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your year end letter and you had
mentioned that you thought that 

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there was some relevant things 
to come on the pod. 

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I did read it. 
I don't have any like formal, 

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you know, outline here, so I 
don't know if you want to sort 

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of talk about a little bit what 
you think is relevant and then 

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we can kind of go through the 
letter and pick on some 

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different themes. 
I I'll here's here's one that I 

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think is kind of fun when you 
still when you talked about 

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wicked problems. 
OK. 

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You want to you want to just 
riff on that and then we can 

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kind of talk about, you know, 
specific metals. 

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And, and I do think it's 
actually quite, you know, we've 

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got old Davos thing going on 
right now and various different 

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people speaking all, all of we 
seem to in some regards see that

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we've got a lot of difficult 
problems to solve. 

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And there are some easy 
solutions. 

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And I think, I think the wicked 
problems concept, which I, I 

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first ran into, I think in grad 
school and, and it's like a 

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social science term like wicked 
problem, sort of this problem 

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that it doesn't, it doesn't 
necessarily have a solution. 

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It, it has a continuous 
evolution, right. 

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So the example I always think of
for some reason is, is something

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like healthcare, right? 
Where, you know, the government 

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thinks, OK, they're going to 
roll out a solution to 

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healthcare and roll out the 
solution to healthcare. 

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And yeah, it addresses some of 
the issues, but it creates its 

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own new issues. 
And no, it doesn't solve the 

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problem. 
It just, it just creates sort of

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new problems and solves previous
problems. 

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And so healthcare issues still 
exist, they're just different 

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than they were before. 
And yes, that's, that's sort of 

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a, a rough overview of what it 
is. 

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And, and I, I think we're, we're
currently faced with a lot of 

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these complex interwinding 
problems that every time we try 

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and apply a solution, we, we 
create, you know, sort of a new 

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set of problems. 
And one that I sort of talked 

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about on the letter, I think as 
perhaps coming to an end. 

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And, and, you know, having laid 
the foundation for a series of 

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problems we're now confronted 
with is, you know, central 

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bank's management of interest 
rates over the past, you know, 

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whatever since 2008, let's say, 
you know, it's created a weird 

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misallocations of capital. 
One of the things it's done is, 

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you know, it's, it's made it 
very difficult, very hard to 

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build any sort of quote, UN 
quote real assets here in the 

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United States with the cost of 
capital, things of that nature 

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and wow. 
How is that a how's that a 

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central bank issue and not like 
more of a permitting issue? 

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It's, I mean, it's absolutely a 
permitting issue also, but I 

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think it's multifaceted. 
I mean, it's very, so take for 

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example, I, I got asked to, or 
where my fund got asked to, to 

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look into whether we could 
provide a cost overrun facility 

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for a mine that's being built. 
And this cost overrun facility 

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is basically the mines got their
project financing squared away. 

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But the project financing guy 
said, you know, in case you guys

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run over on costs, we'd like you
to go out and get, you know, 

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this facility that'll be undrawn
and then trigger if you run over

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cost. 
And so I'm, I say, OK, you know,

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that that's interesting, that's 
highly idiosyncratic, that's, 

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you know, out of left field that
that might work in my full, you 

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know, and so I start looking 
into these things and, you know,

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the cost overrun facility, if 
it's drawn, I might be able to 

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get, you know, 1718%, you know. 
That's real money. 

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Last I checked, that's almost 
credit card interest rates. 

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Yeah. 
I mean, it's a it's that's 

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unaffordable forever. 
I mean there's no one who can 

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can handle that. 
And the project financing is 

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quite expensive also. 
And then you look at, you know, 

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what banks are willing to really
lend to and mining projects, for

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example, are really hard to get 
financing for you just you just 

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can't do it at a rate that then 
is cost effective. 

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And the rates don't necessarily 
represent the real risk either. 

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So you know that permitting is 
absolutely an issue. 

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It's absolutely a challenge, but
it isn't the only challenge. 

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Yeah, I would think the banks 
would be like, why don't you 

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build the mine and once it's 
cash flowing will refi you out. 

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Meanwhile, the person that wants
to build the mines like, no, I 

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actually need the capital to get
the mine started. 

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If I had the equity, I wouldn't 
have this issue. 

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Yes. 
And maybe you go to private 

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credit or something, right. 
But yeah, absolutely expensive 

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paper. 
And and I mean the mining 

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industries come up with ways 
around it, you know, with 

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streams and royalties and stuff 
like that, but that is very 

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expensive capital also. 
And so while, you know, someone 

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00:13:03,800 --> 00:13:08,840
like I don't catch EPT and you 
know, those guys can go out and 

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borrow money and and get 
financed with a project that all

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the value is in some terminal 
component that we have no idea 

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when it is, where it is, if 
it'll ever materialize, 

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etcetera. 
But the you know, the the 

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forecasted period, right, You 
know that that we can really 

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talk about that's all of his 
losses. 

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Those guys can go out and get 
money. 

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But mining firms can you want to
build a new aluminum smelter or 

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something in the United States, 
good law. 

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And so you've got these weird, 
these weird situations that crop

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up and addressing them will 
create a new series of problems.

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And I think that we're at 
perhaps a turning point maybe 

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with, with regards to some of 
these problems where we're 

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taking the problems from the 
last 15 years, we're going to 

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try and solve them now and, and,
and those solutions will create 

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their own set of problems, 
right? 

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00:14:18,000 --> 00:14:21,080
And our problems started with, 
you know, whether it be 

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permitting or central banks OR, 
you know, globalization, maybe, 

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you know, those, those good 
things for some people created 

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bad outcomes for others and a 
whole different series of 

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problems, right? 
And so problems tend to be, you 

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know, they never go away. 
It's just morph and change. 

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It's like risk, right? 
You people talk about reducing 

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their risk. 
Well, very rarely do you 

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00:14:47,520 --> 00:14:50,320
actually reduce risk, especially
in the world finance, right? 

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00:14:50,320 --> 00:14:53,400
It just gets shipped around to 
somebody else's. 

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00:14:54,360 --> 00:14:57,760
But there there's very little in
the way of full risk reduction. 

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It's just distribution that that
changes. 

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Yeah, yeah. 
It's my the story I tell myself.

225
00:15:07,400 --> 00:15:12,000
I don't know if it's true or 
not, but is in an effort to sort

226
00:15:12,000 --> 00:15:15,240
of reduce pollution and whatnot.
We offshored a lot of The Dirty 

227
00:15:15,240 --> 00:15:21,560
stuff and then, you know, are 
not really willing for one 

228
00:15:21,560 --> 00:15:25,800
reason or another to fund it. 
And I think that one reason or 

229
00:15:25,800 --> 00:15:31,040
another is probably that all the
all the sexy growing things have

230
00:15:31,040 --> 00:15:34,000
been outperforming for so long 
that people's money is like, 

231
00:15:34,000 --> 00:15:38,680
well, why would I allocate to 
mine on on average? 

232
00:15:38,680 --> 00:15:39,360
Yeah, yeah. 
Right. 

233
00:15:39,880 --> 00:15:42,760
And then, you know, you got the 
private mag 7 that you can 

234
00:15:42,760 --> 00:15:44,840
allocate to and all you're going
to do, all you're going to see 

235
00:15:44,840 --> 00:15:47,760
is your statement go up until it
doesn't. 

236
00:15:48,000 --> 00:15:52,440
But and and and the. 
Solution to client The solution 

237
00:15:52,440 --> 00:15:55,840
to climate change is the perfect
example of a a wicked problem. 

238
00:15:56,480 --> 00:15:59,400
We applied a solution, created 
all kinds of other things. 

239
00:15:59,560 --> 00:16:01,360
So what? 
Happened there for. 

240
00:16:01,400 --> 00:16:03,000
For people. 
That don't follow this. 

241
00:16:03,000 --> 00:16:05,920
Can you, can you bring us to 
where we are in the climate 

242
00:16:05,920 --> 00:16:11,960
change sort of policy response 
and or what happened over the 

243
00:16:11,960 --> 00:16:22,240
last couple years? 
So I guess I so let's say 2010 

244
00:16:22,240 --> 00:16:33,440
to 2019, we had a slow ramp of 
increasing policies, whether 

245
00:16:33,440 --> 00:16:40,280
they be in China, United States,
Japan, Europe, etcetera, all 

246
00:16:40,280 --> 00:16:44,120
pushing the energy system and 
the energy stack towards 

247
00:16:44,120 --> 00:16:51,960
increasing renewables on the 
grid. 2020 to you know, kind of 

248
00:16:51,960 --> 00:16:59,440
like last year, the year before 
2024-2025 that policy ramp 

249
00:16:59,440 --> 00:17:03,240
really accelerated quite 
dramatic and there was 

250
00:17:03,800 --> 00:17:08,720
significant growth in government
sort of incentives, government 

251
00:17:08,720 --> 00:17:15,440
money etcetera to push the 
entire energy stack further and 

252
00:17:15,440 --> 00:17:20,880
further into renewables and away
from hydrocarbons, away from 

253
00:17:21,079 --> 00:17:26,400
coal, etcetera and in some 
places away from nuclear, which 

254
00:17:26,560 --> 00:17:30,160
which is a very European story, 
although a little bit in Japan 

255
00:17:30,160 --> 00:17:35,680
as well. 
Donald Trump comes along last 

256
00:17:35,680 --> 00:17:44,240
year and we've had a very hard 
sort of break where not only was

257
00:17:44,240 --> 00:17:49,520
there a bit of a building 
concern in the last few years, 

258
00:17:49,520 --> 00:17:53,440
the Biden administration that 
that perhaps we were pushing 

259
00:17:53,440 --> 00:17:58,920
this renewable sort of solution 
to the climate change problem a 

260
00:17:58,920 --> 00:18:02,480
little too hard and too fast. 
But that perhaps it actually 

261
00:18:02,480 --> 00:18:05,440
wasn't. 
You know, solar and wind perhaps

262
00:18:05,440 --> 00:18:09,680
weren't the, as I call it, sort 
of universal solution that they 

263
00:18:09,680 --> 00:18:11,840
were originally sort of claim to
be. 

264
00:18:11,840 --> 00:18:15,080
And when I say universal 
solution, I mean, sort of this 

265
00:18:15,080 --> 00:18:19,440
idea that everything could just 
be run on solar, wind with 

266
00:18:19,440 --> 00:18:22,360
batteries and that it was a 
universal solution that 

267
00:18:22,360 --> 00:18:28,600
addressed all energy problems 
that, you know, a lot of us were

268
00:18:28,600 --> 00:18:30,200
skeptical of that from the 
beginning. 

269
00:18:31,480 --> 00:18:35,240
From my perspective, wind and 
solar were always very similar 

270
00:18:35,240 --> 00:18:40,120
to oil and natural gas in that 
you are harvesting a natural 

271
00:18:40,120 --> 00:18:41,920
resource. 
When you're harvesting a natural

272
00:18:41,920 --> 00:18:46,560
resource where it is becomes 
critical to the return, right. 

273
00:18:46,560 --> 00:18:51,240
So you know, you can put solar 
up in Germany, for example, and 

274
00:18:51,240 --> 00:18:54,240
they did and you can put solar 
in Nevada. 

275
00:18:54,760 --> 00:18:58,080
But the effectiveness of both 
those things and the 

276
00:18:58,080 --> 00:19:00,400
profitability are going to be 
completely different. 

277
00:19:01,520 --> 00:19:05,840
And what what's happened over 
time and, and the break again 

278
00:19:05,840 --> 00:19:12,160
came last year was that a lot of
that misplaced, a lot of those 

279
00:19:12,160 --> 00:19:17,280
misplaced assets became the 
poster trauma of, of what was 

280
00:19:17,280 --> 00:19:20,040
happening. 
And so with the Trump 

281
00:19:20,040 --> 00:19:23,600
administration, you know, 
they've repealed a lot of the 

282
00:19:24,440 --> 00:19:28,320
benefits, if you will, that the 
government had extended that had

283
00:19:28,320 --> 00:19:32,960
encouraged people to go into 
wind and solar and, and now, you

284
00:19:32,960 --> 00:19:36,480
know, made sort of a hard right 
turn and, and are trying to push

285
00:19:36,960 --> 00:19:42,000
oil and natural gas further. 
Europe has not made that sort of

286
00:19:42,000 --> 00:19:45,640
that turn, but there have been 
there has been definitely a 

287
00:19:45,640 --> 00:19:50,720
recognition that perhaps they 
need a more comprehensive 

288
00:19:50,720 --> 00:19:54,200
solution. 
And so that's why you saw the 

289
00:19:54,600 --> 00:19:57,400
Prime Minister of Germany say, I
think a week ago or something 

290
00:19:57,400 --> 00:20:02,720
talking about how I mean for. 
Lack of better term boneheaded 

291
00:20:02,720 --> 00:20:06,880
it was to turn off their entire 
fleet of nuclear power plants. 

292
00:20:06,880 --> 00:20:09,880
They did it like, I don't know, 
I think it took a decade, but 

293
00:20:09,880 --> 00:20:14,080
but that's pretty quick in the 
grand scheme of things and 

294
00:20:14,400 --> 00:20:16,760
especially when it's like the. 
Greenest energy? 

295
00:20:17,080 --> 00:20:18,440
Yeah, well. 
Yeah, especially when it's like 

296
00:20:18,520 --> 00:20:20,520
there is that. 
Too and and. 

297
00:20:20,600 --> 00:20:26,000
All that time and energy spent 
on building renewables while 

298
00:20:26,000 --> 00:20:28,520
they turned off the news with 
power plant meant that, you 

299
00:20:28,520 --> 00:20:31,440
know, in reality they just 
replaced clean with with other 

300
00:20:31,440 --> 00:20:35,520
clean energy. 
And so, you know, where we stand

301
00:20:35,520 --> 00:20:40,760
now is in my mind. 
You know, the pendulum in the 

302
00:20:40,760 --> 00:20:45,720
United States is probably what 
swung too far the one side, the 

303
00:20:45,720 --> 00:20:51,960
pendulum in Europe maybe hasn't 
swung away from renewables being

304
00:20:51,960 --> 00:20:56,920
universal solution enough yet, 
but it's probably approaching 

305
00:20:56,920 --> 00:20:59,360
more of a middle ground over 
there that is here in the United

306
00:20:59,360 --> 00:21:04,600
States. 
Now that being said, there are 

307
00:21:04,800 --> 00:21:11,080
areas in renewables that are 
still doing pretty well rooftop 

308
00:21:11,080 --> 00:21:14,640
solar and some of the rooftop 
solar companies are still doing 

309
00:21:14,640 --> 00:21:18,320
pretty decently, you know, 
behind meter solar. 

310
00:21:18,320 --> 00:21:22,760
So industrial or you know, not 
not quite industrial scale, but 

311
00:21:23,120 --> 00:21:25,960
you know, maybe a facility of 
manufacturing facility that's 

312
00:21:25,960 --> 00:21:28,400
got a big roof, for example, you
know, that type of thing. 

313
00:21:28,560 --> 00:21:34,360
Those guys are still doing OK. 
I think community scale solar, 

314
00:21:34,360 --> 00:21:36,160
which you know, fits somewhere 
in between. 

315
00:21:36,160 --> 00:21:41,120
There is suffering a great deal.
Then offer wind and wind has 

316
00:21:41,120 --> 00:21:44,640
obviously been on shore and 
offshore. 

317
00:21:45,600 --> 00:21:48,440
Donald Trump. 
Yeah. 

318
00:21:49,440 --> 00:21:52,960
It's got a somewhat irrational 
dislike event in my mind. 

319
00:21:53,960 --> 00:21:55,480
It's expensive, don't get me 
wrong. 

320
00:21:55,480 --> 00:22:01,720
I, you know, but it, it has its 
benefits in a portfolio of 

321
00:22:02,080 --> 00:22:08,240
energy sources. 
And then in China, though, you 

322
00:22:08,240 --> 00:22:11,880
know, trying to views it, and 
I'm, I've been saying this for a

323
00:22:11,880 --> 00:22:17,040
while, they're pushed for EVs 
and they're pushed for 

324
00:22:17,040 --> 00:22:20,200
renewables, has got nothing to 
do with the environment 

325
00:22:20,200 --> 00:22:22,720
whatsoever. 
They could care less. 

326
00:22:23,120 --> 00:22:25,800
It is all a geostrategic 
concern. 

327
00:22:26,280 --> 00:22:30,440
They have no oil. 
They've got a lot of coal, but 

328
00:22:30,440 --> 00:22:34,360
they have no oil and they have 
very little in the way of 

329
00:22:34,360 --> 00:22:38,560
natural gas. 
So anything that uses oil or 

330
00:22:38,560 --> 00:22:41,400
natural gas, they want to be 
very specific and sort of 

331
00:22:41,400 --> 00:22:45,240
deliberate about because they 
don't want to have to rely on, 

332
00:22:45,360 --> 00:22:47,680
say, imports from the United 
States. 

333
00:22:48,640 --> 00:22:57,520
So their push into EVs and into 
solar makes a ton of sense from 

334
00:22:57,720 --> 00:23:01,440
a resource perspective. 
So they will continue to do it 

335
00:23:01,440 --> 00:23:06,280
regardless of of the 
environmental sort of side. 

336
00:23:08,720 --> 00:23:11,840
So that's sort of where where it
stands. 

337
00:23:12,800 --> 00:23:14,640
It's odd. 
To me that that that they don't 

338
00:23:14,640 --> 00:23:17,520
have any oil just given the size
of the country, but. 

339
00:23:18,560 --> 00:23:21,280
Yeah, I don't, I haven't really 
thought about that. 

340
00:23:21,280 --> 00:23:27,520
But they have one big field been
in production since like the 60s

341
00:23:27,520 --> 00:23:33,360
or the 50s and 60s. 
But my understanding is it, it's

342
00:23:33,400 --> 00:23:38,040
petering out and I don't know, 
it never was all that great to 

343
00:23:38,040 --> 00:23:41,240
begin with. 
Perhaps so, but they got a lot 

344
00:23:41,240 --> 00:23:43,680
of other things. 
I mean the United States is 

345
00:23:44,000 --> 00:23:50,800
remarkably luck in our resource 
endowment just in terms of the 

346
00:23:50,800 --> 00:23:54,200
spread. 
There are admittedly things that

347
00:23:54,720 --> 00:23:59,280
we don't have in necessarily the
most economic concentrations or 

348
00:23:59,280 --> 00:24:05,280
necessarily enough deposits of, 
but in probably frankly kind of 

349
00:24:05,280 --> 00:24:06,920
almost have a little bit of 
everything. 

350
00:24:08,240 --> 00:24:14,640
It's really quite unique. 
Not sure besides for Canada, 

351
00:24:15,800 --> 00:24:18,440
which is kind of AI mean from a 
geological perspective, just a 

352
00:24:18,440 --> 00:24:22,560
continuation. 
I'm not really sure anyone else 

353
00:24:22,560 --> 00:24:27,640
has, you know, quite as 
comprehensive a resource 

354
00:24:27,640 --> 00:24:30,000
endowment as we do. 
I mean, Europe certainly 

355
00:24:30,000 --> 00:24:34,000
doesn't, China certainly 
doesn't, India doesn't, 

356
00:24:34,280 --> 00:24:42,280
Australia maybe actually not and
Argentina being Brazil, possibly

357
00:24:44,400 --> 00:24:46,760
so, but but it's it's pretty 
unique. 

358
00:24:49,400 --> 00:24:52,840
Yeah, it's. 
I don't know, it's I was talking

359
00:24:52,840 --> 00:24:57,040
to a buddy who works as a gas 
blender and we were just talking

360
00:24:57,040 --> 00:25:00,000
about how cheap gas is, but how 
strong the cracks are. 

361
00:25:00,400 --> 00:25:04,120
And I just kind of wonder for 
refiners the cracks. 

362
00:25:04,440 --> 00:25:08,160
I just kind of wonder if, I 
mean, obviously Trump getting 

363
00:25:08,160 --> 00:25:13,040
elected and drill baby drill has
taken over the lexicon or the 

364
00:25:13,040 --> 00:25:17,120
ethos or whatever, but some of 
it is like the prices that 

365
00:25:17,120 --> 00:25:19,960
people are paying as a 
consequence of the policies. 

366
00:25:19,960 --> 00:25:25,560
I think you know it reduces the.
I don't fill. 

367
00:25:25,560 --> 00:25:28,800
Up my car and feel that same 
pain and be like, oh man, you 

368
00:25:28,800 --> 00:25:30,880
know, maybe an EV does make 
sense. 

369
00:25:30,880 --> 00:25:35,600
Which when gas was at $5 a 
gallon I was thinking, I kind of

370
00:25:35,600 --> 00:25:41,040
wonder if if this is an my 
tinfoil hat thing, Thinks maybe 

371
00:25:41,040 --> 00:25:44,520
after the midterms we see oil 
prices go a little bit higher, 

372
00:25:44,520 --> 00:25:55,220
but who knows. 
Yeah, I think that I'm skeptical

373
00:25:55,220 --> 00:26:01,340
of oil prices here where they 
are, or I should say, I don't 

374
00:26:01,540 --> 00:26:07,060
know, 6060, four, $65 a barrel. 
Those aren't great prices for 

375
00:26:09,040 --> 00:26:12,440
adding new production. 
They're not impossible prices, 

376
00:26:14,120 --> 00:26:18,920
but there's definitely, there's 
definitely a challenge at this 

377
00:26:18,920 --> 00:26:25,320
price in keeping up with demand 
because demand growth, You know 

378
00:26:25,320 --> 00:26:27,760
that, that, that was one of the 
other parts of say the, the 

379
00:26:28,280 --> 00:26:33,200
climate change, right, was that 
oil demand would fall off the 

380
00:26:33,200 --> 00:26:39,960
edge of a Cliff as we ramp 
renewables and specifically EVs.

381
00:26:39,960 --> 00:26:42,360
And, and that just hasn't proven
to be the case. 

382
00:26:43,040 --> 00:26:47,880
And in fact, no oil demand has 
accelerated in some regards. 

383
00:26:48,400 --> 00:26:54,880
I think I say it in my letter, I
mean we need what is it 6.9 

384
00:26:54,880 --> 00:27:01,520
million barrels per day of new 
production every year just to 

385
00:27:01,520 --> 00:27:07,040
keep up with the decline rate of
existing fields plus the growth 

386
00:27:07,600 --> 00:27:12,480
of about 1.4 million barrels per
day that say they expect in 

387
00:27:12,480 --> 00:27:18,960
2026, you know, roaring, you 
know sort of economic situation 

388
00:27:18,960 --> 00:27:27,000
that 1.4 might be 2.5 and at 
these prices you don't have a 

389
00:27:27,000 --> 00:27:32,280
lot of. 
So someone like ExxonMobil who, 

390
00:27:33,160 --> 00:27:35,840
you know, has done just a 
spectacular job of turning on 

391
00:27:35,840 --> 00:27:39,320
these giant oil and natural gas 
fields in Guyana, right? 

392
00:27:40,240 --> 00:27:43,720
They don't have a pipeline of 
projects like that. 

393
00:27:44,160 --> 00:27:48,080
You know, they're doing a couple
100,000 barrels per day right 

394
00:27:48,080 --> 00:27:49,920
now. 
You know, they're going to turn 

395
00:27:49,920 --> 00:27:51,920
on their last couple of Guyana 
fields this year. 

396
00:27:51,920 --> 00:27:56,240
And then the cupboards drop. 
And incentivizing them to go out

397
00:27:56,240 --> 00:28:03,760
and find more is, you know, it's
not $6064 a barrel because first

398
00:28:03,760 --> 00:28:06,560
you have the exploration to do 
and then you have the 

399
00:28:06,560 --> 00:28:09,840
development to do. 
And it's also like a 10 year 

400
00:28:09,840 --> 00:28:11,880
process if it's a big field like
that. 

401
00:28:12,240 --> 00:28:15,920
The frackers those guys are, are
now sort of going out into 

402
00:28:16,880 --> 00:28:20,880
Argentina and out into the rest 
of the world looking for other 

403
00:28:20,880 --> 00:28:24,640
opportunities to duplicate what 
they do in Texas. 

404
00:28:25,520 --> 00:28:29,120
But, you know, they they haven't
necessarily found it yet. 

405
00:28:29,360 --> 00:28:34,240
And Oh, yeah, by the way, the 
supply chains that enable them 

406
00:28:34,240 --> 00:28:41,400
to so effectively crack wells in
Texas don't exist in a, you 

407
00:28:41,400 --> 00:28:46,080
know, a place like Argentina. 
And so I think, I think I read 

408
00:28:46,080 --> 00:28:53,040
Harold Hamm, who was the CEO of,
I don't remember which company 

409
00:28:53,040 --> 00:28:56,160
he was CEO of, but Harold Hamm 
is one of the original sort of 

410
00:28:56,680 --> 00:29:01,560
frackers. 
He says 50% more expensive to do

411
00:29:01,560 --> 00:29:07,040
in RGT. 
So you know what they produce at

412
00:29:07,040 --> 00:29:08,800
$50 a barrel here in the United 
States. 

413
00:29:08,800 --> 00:29:11,400
You know, this current price is 
not going to cut it down there 

414
00:29:11,400 --> 00:29:16,160
for expanding the, the fracking 
fields they've got there, which 

415
00:29:16,160 --> 00:29:19,720
is in the area called the 
Velocum where they're dead cow 

416
00:29:19,720 --> 00:29:24,200
fool. 
So I, I think the incentive 

417
00:29:24,200 --> 00:29:29,680
price is, is quite a bit higher.
And, and I tend to echo your, 

418
00:29:30,040 --> 00:29:36,160
your sort of thought that maybe 
after the midterms we see a rise

419
00:29:36,160 --> 00:29:39,280
in the oil price. 
I think that'll be less to do 

420
00:29:39,280 --> 00:29:42,400
with politics and more to do 
with the fact that the 

421
00:29:42,400 --> 00:29:47,160
second-half of the year, you 
know, people are going to start 

422
00:29:47,160 --> 00:29:52,600
positioning for 20272028 within 
oil markets. 

423
00:29:52,600 --> 00:29:59,080
And 2027 and 2028 are years that
are very much passed the the 

424
00:29:59,880 --> 00:30:04,360
turning on of fields that were 
sanctioned immediately after 

425
00:30:04,360 --> 00:30:07,760
COVID. 
And, and those big projects, 

426
00:30:07,760 --> 00:30:09,920
they're just there are there 
isn't a pipeline. 

427
00:30:13,200 --> 00:30:15,440
Yeah. 
It's. 

428
00:30:15,440 --> 00:30:18,080
Interesting. 
I like the reading your letter 

429
00:30:18,440 --> 00:30:23,680
that you you tend to or have a 
bias maybe towards being 

430
00:30:23,680 --> 00:30:25,320
skeptical of the current oil 
price. 

431
00:30:25,320 --> 00:30:27,640
You also seem a little bit 
skeptical of the current gold 

432
00:30:27,640 --> 00:30:30,920
price. 
Neither one of those positions 

433
00:30:30,920 --> 00:30:33,720
is particularly sexy at the 
moment, Right? 

434
00:30:33,720 --> 00:30:36,200
Everybody likes gold and no one 
likes oil, I thought. 

435
00:30:36,600 --> 00:30:39,960
Yeah. 
Yeah, I mean, my, my so no one 

436
00:30:39,960 --> 00:30:41,720
likes oil. 
It's absolutely true. 

437
00:30:43,440 --> 00:30:48,480
My skepticism about gold, I 
don't know if it's it's an 

438
00:30:48,480 --> 00:30:53,560
outright skepticism about the 
gold price more of AI have no 

439
00:30:53,560 --> 00:30:59,920
idea how to value a gold company
withhold moving the way it is so

440
00:31:00,240 --> 00:31:02,640
well then you. 
Just put it at 10,000 an ounce 

441
00:31:02,640 --> 00:31:06,200
and value it there. 10,000 an 
ounce, everything is a freaking 

442
00:31:06,240 --> 00:31:08,840
awesome buy. 
We're going to 10,000 an ounce. 

443
00:31:11,040 --> 00:31:15,320
But I, I don't, you know, when I
invest in a gold miner, I don't 

444
00:31:16,240 --> 00:31:25,360
I wanted to make money at spot 
less 25% or less 30% right, 

445
00:31:25,360 --> 00:31:27,080
because come on, he's moved that
one. 

446
00:31:27,120 --> 00:31:32,400
I mean, we've just seen oh move.
I mean, it moved up, but you 

447
00:31:32,400 --> 00:31:35,000
know, it, it they can move 
dramatics. 

448
00:31:35,840 --> 00:31:39,720
And so where, how do you, you 
know, what price do you put in 

449
00:31:39,720 --> 00:31:42,200
for a long term price? 
And obviously, you know, you 

450
00:31:42,200 --> 00:31:50,160
want to use multiple premises, 
but, you know, right now, with 

451
00:31:50,160 --> 00:31:54,720
the way it's moving, I don't 
know if 3500 should be the sort 

452
00:31:54,720 --> 00:32:00,240
of average price I end up with 
or should it be 4000 or should 

453
00:32:00,240 --> 00:32:04,280
it be 3000? 
I mean, we could see a reversal.

454
00:32:05,400 --> 00:32:07,040
Everyone's like, oh, well, it 
can't happen. 

455
00:32:07,080 --> 00:32:10,280
But, you know, because the 
geopolitical set up, the 

456
00:32:10,280 --> 00:32:12,600
debasement trade, everyone 
coming out in the dollar. 

457
00:32:12,600 --> 00:32:14,240
OK, sure. 
It looks gold. 

458
00:32:14,240 --> 00:32:17,360
It looks perfect. 
I mean, I I don't see where the 

459
00:32:17,360 --> 00:32:22,840
crack is, but if I don't see 
where the crack is, I'm I can't 

460
00:32:22,840 --> 00:32:26,240
make the case or to go the other
direction. 

461
00:32:26,800 --> 00:32:30,640
I'm really concerned that it 
will go the other direction 

462
00:32:33,440 --> 00:32:38,000
because it's just too perfect. 
That's how it felt after the GFC

463
00:32:38,280 --> 00:32:40,880
and then it it sort of it had a 
good run. 

464
00:32:40,880 --> 00:32:43,960
I don't know if it was like till
2010 or 2011 or whatever it was,

465
00:32:43,960 --> 00:32:47,280
but. 
I remember everybody. 

466
00:32:47,280 --> 00:32:50,120
Talking about gold back there. 
And then I, I guess what's 

467
00:32:50,120 --> 00:32:52,520
different this time is there's 
much more fiscal policy than 

468
00:32:52,520 --> 00:32:56,200
there was then. 
Yeah. 

469
00:32:56,200 --> 00:32:59,840
And I guess we're more. 
Decoupling than we were then 

470
00:33:00,240 --> 00:33:02,360
yeah, the. 
The we were running in in the 

471
00:33:02,360 --> 00:33:05,120
direction of coupling. 
Now we're definitely running in 

472
00:33:05,120 --> 00:33:08,120
the opposite direction. 
The central banks are definitely

473
00:33:08,560 --> 00:33:13,920
that whole sort of again, 
debasement feed, get out, get 

474
00:33:13,920 --> 00:33:18,440
away from the US Diversifying 
the other places is definitely, 

475
00:33:20,880 --> 00:33:24,280
you know, central bank buying of
gold is definitely a tailwind 

476
00:33:24,880 --> 00:33:29,000
that has how much of this move 
it's responsible for when it's 

477
00:33:29,000 --> 00:33:32,200
responsible for a big, big piece
of it and it's definitely 

478
00:33:32,200 --> 00:33:36,440
responsible for the early 
innings of of this move. 

479
00:33:38,040 --> 00:33:43,240
So when you were, when you were 
buying gold miners what like 2 

480
00:33:43,240 --> 00:33:48,400
years ago or so, the idea was 
OK, look the price is pretty on 

481
00:33:48,400 --> 00:33:52,760
demanding and a 25 to 30% lower 
than here. 

482
00:33:53,920 --> 00:33:57,480
I'm still pretty comfortable 
with the with the return of the 

483
00:33:57,480 --> 00:34:01,040
investment. 
But today, now that gold has 

484
00:34:01,040 --> 00:34:04,880
gone up so much, is it, is it a 
matter of not knowing how far 

485
00:34:05,000 --> 00:34:08,719
how to like, I don't want to say
not knowing how to stress it, 

486
00:34:08,719 --> 00:34:10,320
because that's not what I 
actually mean. 

487
00:34:10,320 --> 00:34:13,480
But is it just that the range of
outcomes you perceive to be much

488
00:34:13,480 --> 00:34:16,080
wider to the downside than it 
was previously? 

489
00:34:18,120 --> 00:34:21,960
Yes, yeah. 
It's the range of outcomes that.

490
00:34:25,840 --> 00:34:30,040
Yeah, it's very much the range 
of outcomes and the inability to

491
00:34:30,080 --> 00:34:35,480
comfortably sort of put 
probabilities on those outcomes.

492
00:34:37,400 --> 00:34:42,320
I mean, the idea that gold can 
pull back the 3500, it's just 

493
00:34:42,320 --> 00:34:44,679
not like that's not a crazy 
idea. 

494
00:34:46,199 --> 00:34:51,440
And so and I just don't know, I 
don't know how to go about 

495
00:34:51,920 --> 00:34:53,840
putting odds on that at the 
moment. 

496
00:34:54,960 --> 00:35:03,520
But I'd also say is that all the
gold miners have also run and so

497
00:35:04,640 --> 00:35:08,280
the price you're buying in at 
you need to be much more. 

498
00:35:08,520 --> 00:35:11,320
I don't like to have to be 
precise about my commodity. 

499
00:35:12,200 --> 00:35:14,360
I like to have to be roughly 
accurate. 

500
00:35:15,080 --> 00:35:18,840
Gold is going to go up. 
That's about as accurate or or 

501
00:35:18,840 --> 00:35:23,920
as as specific and precise in my
gold outlook as I want to be. 

502
00:35:24,120 --> 00:35:30,120
Gold is going up right now. 
When I look at gold miners and, 

503
00:35:30,160 --> 00:35:36,120
and valuations, you know, moving
the needle 250 dollars, 300, 

504
00:35:36,400 --> 00:35:41,320
$400.00 an ounce makes a, a big 
difference to the valuation and 

505
00:35:41,320 --> 00:35:44,680
whether you know that price is a
fair price to buy in. 

506
00:35:46,160 --> 00:35:49,680
And so I find that with 
commodity prices, when they're 

507
00:35:49,680 --> 00:35:55,120
very high relative to recent 
history, you have to be very 

508
00:35:55,240 --> 00:35:59,560
precise in your outlook in order
to make money. 

509
00:35:59,840 --> 00:36:02,920
Because the price you buy in at 
with commodity producers in 

510
00:36:02,920 --> 00:36:07,480
particular I think is absolutely
the most critical barrier. 

511
00:36:07,800 --> 00:36:10,840
Because you know, like, look, 
if, if you're buying a consumer 

512
00:36:10,840 --> 00:36:16,360
goods company or something, you 
can buy it at a good, you know, 

513
00:36:16,360 --> 00:36:20,040
you can buy a good company at a 
good price very rarely. 

514
00:36:21,240 --> 00:36:22,920
And, and then you can hold it 
right. 

515
00:36:23,000 --> 00:36:27,680
And let time work for you and, 
and let them, you know, take 

516
00:36:27,680 --> 00:36:31,320
advantage of pricing power or 
take advantage of, you know, 

517
00:36:31,440 --> 00:36:34,880
TikTok mean that results in some
too. 

518
00:36:34,880 --> 00:36:38,560
Just, you know, being the, the, 
you know, the, the hottest thing

519
00:36:38,560 --> 00:36:39,840
in the market and stuff like 
that. 

520
00:36:40,800 --> 00:36:44,200
You can't really do that with, 
with mining firms so much. 

521
00:36:44,760 --> 00:36:46,760
We're natural resources 
producers. 

522
00:36:46,960 --> 00:36:51,440
You have to buy them really well
and buying them really well 

523
00:36:52,040 --> 00:36:57,040
because nothing that occurs 
after that buy is, you know, 

524
00:36:57,040 --> 00:37:01,240
getting bailed out ends up 
either being giant macro story 

525
00:37:01,480 --> 00:37:03,040
about the commodity price 
movement. 

526
00:37:03,280 --> 00:37:06,240
And the last thing you want to 
be is in my opinion is tied to 

527
00:37:06,240 --> 00:37:09,880
some giant macro story that you 
have no idea of the timeline of,

528
00:37:10,160 --> 00:37:13,400
you have no idea how far it will
run, etcetera, etcetera. 

529
00:37:15,720 --> 00:37:20,880
You know, so, so you can't buy 
cheap and discounted gold miners

530
00:37:20,880 --> 00:37:23,200
right now. 
You can only buy gold miners 

531
00:37:23,720 --> 00:37:27,560
that are, you know, a little 
expensive then that's not 

532
00:37:27,560 --> 00:37:29,880
totally true. 
I looked at one yesterday that I

533
00:37:29,880 --> 00:37:35,160
thought seemed like a pretty 
reasonable case, but I think 

534
00:37:35,160 --> 00:37:40,080
it's probably still trading at 
twice what I would have thought 

535
00:37:40,240 --> 00:37:49,040
this company was valued at at 
the same stage in 20, 1-2 or 

536
00:37:49,040 --> 00:37:53,000
something, right. 
So it's still, you know, it's 

537
00:37:53,000 --> 00:37:57,160
still more expensive in 2022. 
I'm not sure I would have looked

538
00:37:57,160 --> 00:38:01,280
at the company given its current
market cap and where they are in

539
00:38:01,280 --> 00:38:04,320
their development now. 
I'll look at it and it's 

540
00:38:04,320 --> 00:38:10,280
reasonable, but, you know, the 
spread of outcomes has widened. 

541
00:38:12,280 --> 00:38:15,800
Yeah. 
So it sounds to me like if the 

542
00:38:15,800 --> 00:38:21,040
price of a commodity is close to
the marginal cost of production,

543
00:38:21,720 --> 00:38:25,560
that could give some sort of 
confidence that it's the 

544
00:38:25,560 --> 00:38:30,040
probability that it goes much 
lower and stays much lower is 

545
00:38:30,040 --> 00:38:32,400
fairly low given a supply 
response. 

546
00:38:32,400 --> 00:38:35,920
Can, you know, sort of offset 
some of that? 

547
00:38:35,920 --> 00:38:40,120
But in a scenario where the 
commodity is valued at some sort

548
00:38:40,120 --> 00:38:43,760
of political premium or 
whatever, the premium exists, 

549
00:38:44,600 --> 00:38:47,920
the distribution gets wider at 
the same time that people 

550
00:38:47,920 --> 00:38:50,360
probably like the stocks more 
than they liked it when the 

551
00:38:50,360 --> 00:38:52,720
commodity wasn't liked. 
And that those kind of 

552
00:38:52,720 --> 00:38:54,560
situations make you a little 
more nervous. 

553
00:38:54,560 --> 00:38:55,960
Is that fair? 
Yeah, no. 

554
00:38:55,960 --> 00:38:58,080
Absolutely. 
That's that's very well said, 

555
00:38:58,320 --> 00:39:01,120
yeah. 
Much makes sense because when I,

556
00:39:01,120 --> 00:39:03,840
when I saw you like getting out 
of gold and into oil, I was 

557
00:39:03,840 --> 00:39:08,080
like, Ah, that's I kind of like 
that, you know, as but I like 

558
00:39:08,080 --> 00:39:12,440
contrarian things by nature. 
So, you know, I hope I don't 

559
00:39:12,440 --> 00:39:15,280
jinx you. 
No, no, I'm I'm sure. 

560
00:39:15,280 --> 00:39:18,080
Yeah, I don't. 
I don't buy into that type of 

561
00:39:18,080 --> 00:39:20,680
thing too much. 
But the hocus pocus. 

562
00:39:20,680 --> 00:39:23,760
Side of life. 
Yeah, I can't every once in a 

563
00:39:23,760 --> 00:39:27,960
while I get or I mean, I guess I
shouldn't say that I I was very 

564
00:39:27,960 --> 00:39:32,120
hocus pocus very nervous about 
that last year. 

565
00:39:32,240 --> 00:39:34,520
But like if I'm doing poorly, 
that's all on me. 

566
00:39:34,880 --> 00:39:39,720
Yeah, if the funds doing OK and 
it's like 0 to plus 12%, you 

567
00:39:39,720 --> 00:39:41,440
know that's a mix of me in the 
market. 

568
00:39:41,480 --> 00:39:44,320
If it's doing really well, I'm 
like, oh boy, I don't know guys,

569
00:39:44,320 --> 00:39:49,440
this I'm very worried here. 
I don't I don't know if this is 

570
00:39:49,440 --> 00:39:52,840
a good scenario. 
My investors are thrilled and 

571
00:39:52,840 --> 00:39:55,840
I'm like guys, this is very 
touch and go here. 

572
00:39:56,320 --> 00:39:58,040
Well, you should. 
Probably be a little kinder to 

573
00:39:58,040 --> 00:40:01,400
yourself in that scenario and 
take a little more credit, but I

574
00:40:01,400 --> 00:40:03,960
think that that that general 
disposition will probably serve 

575
00:40:03,960 --> 00:40:06,240
you better in this profession 
than. 

576
00:40:06,560 --> 00:40:10,400
Than the opposite one, yeah. 
Yeah, Well, I don't know. 

577
00:40:10,400 --> 00:40:14,760
Being kind to oneself. 
I think if I, if I beat myself 

578
00:40:14,760 --> 00:40:17,960
enough, I'll, I'll improve, you 
know, pressure. 

579
00:40:18,400 --> 00:40:19,040
Yeah. 
I. 

580
00:40:19,040 --> 00:40:20,760
You know, I used to think that, 
too. 

581
00:40:21,080 --> 00:40:24,000
Now I realize it's OK to say, 
you know, give yourself a little

582
00:40:24,000 --> 00:40:25,760
pat on the back, but not too 
much. 

583
00:40:26,040 --> 00:40:28,720
Yeah, not. 
Too much, not too much, maybe 1.

584
00:40:28,720 --> 00:40:31,640
Or two kind words among the the 
lashings. 

585
00:40:32,160 --> 00:40:34,440
Yeah. 
Yeah, I, I tried to do that. 

586
00:40:34,440 --> 00:40:38,160
So I turned 40 last year. 
I tried to sort of be like, OK, 

587
00:40:39,000 --> 00:40:40,920
been around the block a little 
bit here. 

588
00:40:41,160 --> 00:40:43,480
Maybe I'm a little wiser. 
I can be a little you know, but 

589
00:40:43,480 --> 00:40:49,280
it didn't last for anymore. 
Well, that's fair. 

590
00:40:49,280 --> 00:40:52,200
Whatever works. 
I was. 

591
00:40:52,200 --> 00:40:55,760
So why? 
Why, given what we just talked 

592
00:40:55,760 --> 00:41:00,800
about, does your outlook on 
copper seem fairly constructive?

593
00:41:04,440 --> 00:41:08,280
I mean, and and to frame it, 
what I hear you say is some of 

594
00:41:08,560 --> 00:41:15,440
the tailwinds that were driving 
some of the adoption of EV or, 

595
00:41:15,440 --> 00:41:20,360
or renewable technology have 
sort of dissipated and maybe 

596
00:41:20,360 --> 00:41:24,360
even turned into headwinds. 
I was under the impression that 

597
00:41:24,360 --> 00:41:28,160
that transition really was 
positive for copper. 

598
00:41:28,400 --> 00:41:30,960
Now I assume AI is fairly 
positive for copper. 

599
00:41:30,960 --> 00:41:33,920
I don't know, but seems like 
copper wins in both those 

600
00:41:33,920 --> 00:41:37,240
scenarios potentially. 
But then, you know, it is kind 

601
00:41:37,240 --> 00:41:39,880
of, I don't think it's as hated 
as it once was. 

602
00:41:39,880 --> 00:41:42,640
So that's kind of the, that's 
why I'm asking the question I'm 

603
00:41:42,680 --> 00:41:45,800
asking. 
If we look at the demand side on

604
00:41:45,800 --> 00:41:55,680
copper, what I would say is any,
you know, energy addition in 

605
00:41:55,760 --> 00:41:58,560
basically any form to be 
perfectly frank, is a net 

606
00:41:58,560 --> 00:42:05,040
positive for copper. 
AI is a net positive for demand,

607
00:42:06,920 --> 00:42:10,280
rearmament, defense, big net 
positive. 

608
00:42:11,840 --> 00:42:16,200
And then I think this one is 
slightly underappreciated. 

609
00:42:16,880 --> 00:42:22,640
Any revamp or rebuilding of 
infrastructure sort of writ 

610
00:42:22,640 --> 00:42:28,160
large refreshing your societal 
infrastructure is a net positive

611
00:42:28,160 --> 00:42:32,880
for copper. 
And I do think we we see some of

612
00:42:32,880 --> 00:42:36,560
that increase going on 
throughout the Western world. 

613
00:42:37,240 --> 00:42:41,160
I've long thought we have sort 
of rested a little too much on 

614
00:42:41,160 --> 00:42:45,640
our our, our sort of greenly 
well built infrastructure sort 

615
00:42:45,640 --> 00:42:50,280
of post World War 2. 
We've lived on that until it 

616
00:42:50,280 --> 00:42:53,320
sort of it isn't quite fit for 
purpose anymore. 

617
00:42:53,320 --> 00:42:56,160
And so we're getting a lot of 
rebuilding that type of thing. 

618
00:42:56,320 --> 00:42:58,560
So that's not positive. 
So on the demand side there, 

619
00:42:58,560 --> 00:43:04,880
there's really only temporary 
issues and those temporary 

620
00:43:04,880 --> 00:43:10,600
issues are say a recession, 
recession or depression, 

621
00:43:10,600 --> 00:43:13,680
whatever, you know, that's not 
good for copper demand. 

622
00:43:14,320 --> 00:43:18,200
But those are very much 
temporary on the supply side. 

623
00:43:19,280 --> 00:43:26,960
And I think a couple of years 
ago, so let's say 2019, 2021, 

624
00:43:27,600 --> 00:43:33,920
the copper story was very much a
demand driven store it is now. 

625
00:43:35,640 --> 00:43:39,480
But there were those of us who 
would have told you at the time 

626
00:43:39,480 --> 00:43:42,880
that supply was also going to be
an issue, it just it was further

627
00:43:42,880 --> 00:43:47,280
out. 
Now that supply issue is very 

628
00:43:47,280 --> 00:43:50,920
much, you know, if it's not here
already, then it's next year or 

629
00:43:50,920 --> 00:43:53,760
the year after you, you know, 
it's the supply issue is here 

630
00:43:53,920 --> 00:44:01,760
and the supply issue, you know, 
copper today, where are we here 

631
00:44:04,160 --> 00:44:09,920
$5.80 a pound. 
You know, that's sufficient to 

632
00:44:09,920 --> 00:44:16,080
incentivize mine building, not 
sufficient to incentivize A rush

633
00:44:16,280 --> 00:44:22,000
of mine building, though. 
It's that's sufficient to 

634
00:44:22,040 --> 00:44:26,960
incentivize the building of, you
know, sort of like fantastic 

635
00:44:27,760 --> 00:44:31,720
year one projects, you know, 
like, you know, you were you've 

636
00:44:31,720 --> 00:44:35,080
you've filed 1D mining a little 
bit and and it's only because 

637
00:44:35,080 --> 00:44:36,520
of. 
You, man, but those that's, 

638
00:44:36,600 --> 00:44:40,920
that's a cool family, yeah. 
You know, they've got projects 

639
00:44:40,920 --> 00:44:43,680
that are tier one projects that 
will be producing copper for the

640
00:44:43,680 --> 00:44:46,280
next 40 or 50 years. 
You know, this price will 

641
00:44:46,280 --> 00:44:51,640
incentivize the building of 
those types of assets, but there

642
00:44:51,640 --> 00:44:57,040
aren't that many of those. 
And we need sort of like one 

643
00:44:57,040 --> 00:45:01,000
year, to be perfectly frank, of 
that sort of scale, that size, 

644
00:45:02,040 --> 00:45:07,800
if not more to keep up with 
demand plus attrition of the 

645
00:45:07,800 --> 00:45:10,920
existing assets. 
And that, you know, again, in 

646
00:45:10,920 --> 00:45:15,040
2020-2021 that was a story for 
the second-half of the decade. 

647
00:45:15,560 --> 00:45:19,520
Well, you know, a we're, we're 
now in the second-half of the 

648
00:45:19,520 --> 00:45:26,280
decade and a lot of the time in 
between, there wasn't, there was

649
00:45:26,280 --> 00:45:28,960
actually, you know, a shortfall 
in capital. 

650
00:45:29,560 --> 00:45:31,920
And so rather than sort of 
coming into the second-half of 

651
00:45:31,920 --> 00:45:34,720
the decade from a period of 
strength, we've allowed 

652
00:45:34,720 --> 00:45:37,720
ourselves to come into the 
second-half of the decade, you 

653
00:45:37,720 --> 00:45:41,280
know, on the back foot. 
And so, you know, I remain 

654
00:45:41,280 --> 00:45:46,640
positive on copper for sort of 
the exact opposite reasons or, 

655
00:45:46,640 --> 00:45:49,520
or yeah, I guess the exact 
opposite reason is that I'm, I'm

656
00:45:49,520 --> 00:45:53,520
sort of negative on gold, right?
Like never seen a gold mine that

657
00:45:53,640 --> 00:46:01,320
fired $4800 gold come online. 
See plenty of copper mines that 

658
00:46:01,320 --> 00:46:06,800
require $5 copper. 
So you know where where the 

659
00:46:06,800 --> 00:46:11,240
price of copper is relative to 
the incentive cost to bring on 

660
00:46:11,240 --> 00:46:15,040
new mines or where mines are 
profitable enough to continue to

661
00:46:15,040 --> 00:46:17,960
invest or where they're 
profitable enough to build the 

662
00:46:18,000 --> 00:46:20,920
infrastructure to get out, 
etcetera. 

663
00:46:21,200 --> 00:46:27,440
You know, this price here, it's 
not, it's not even a sweet spot.

664
00:46:27,480 --> 00:46:32,920
Sweet spots, probably more like 
657 dollars. 

665
00:46:34,400 --> 00:46:39,960
I think the former CEO of 
Freeport Mac brand, and this is 

666
00:46:39,960 --> 00:46:44,560
dated now a guy by the name of 
Richard Atkins, she's probably 

667
00:46:44,560 --> 00:46:49,200
2020. 
But at the time he said 

668
00:46:49,200 --> 00:46:52,320
something along the lines of I 
couldn't bring a copper mine 

669
00:46:52,320 --> 00:46:58,520
online at $8 copper in 10 years.
I think at the time he was 

670
00:46:58,520 --> 00:47:01,360
speaking at a conference, he was
being a bit, you know, dramatic.

671
00:47:02,400 --> 00:47:08,600
But that sentiment is is, you 
know, directionally sort of 

672
00:47:08,600 --> 00:47:12,360
accurate and appropriate. 
So what what he was trying to 

673
00:47:12,360 --> 00:47:19,440
say is if copper were $8, I 
would want to build a mine, but 

674
00:47:19,440 --> 00:47:21,760
it would take me 10 years to get
it done. 

675
00:47:22,160 --> 00:47:24,520
Yeah. 
And, and I would need that $8 

676
00:47:24,520 --> 00:47:25,560
cup. 
Yeah. 

677
00:47:26,640 --> 00:47:29,040
Now, again, I I think he was 
being a big glib and you know, 

678
00:47:29,040 --> 00:47:31,480
he's speaking at a conference 
media, blah, blah, blah. 

679
00:47:31,480 --> 00:47:35,080
But you know, again, I think the
general thrust of that comment 

680
00:47:35,080 --> 00:47:38,000
is accurate. 
You know, the, the Lund beans 

681
00:47:38,000 --> 00:47:44,280
and if copper was at 2:50 A1 
Dean or $3, let's say 350, how 

682
00:47:44,280 --> 00:47:46,400
was it 351? 
Dean's would not be trying to 

683
00:47:46,400 --> 00:47:50,040
build the Kuna way, just not 
sufficient. 

684
00:47:51,560 --> 00:47:57,000
The, the, there's also this, and
some people will have heard me 

685
00:47:57,000 --> 00:47:59,680
say this before, but there's 
this sort of spectrum, if you 

686
00:47:59,680 --> 00:48:02,800
will, with, with mining firms 
where there's geological 

687
00:48:02,800 --> 00:48:06,880
complication on one scale and 
then there's infrastructure need

688
00:48:06,880 --> 00:48:09,240
to get the material out on 
another stick, right? 

689
00:48:09,480 --> 00:48:12,640
And so lot of infrastructure, 
but little geological 

690
00:48:12,640 --> 00:48:16,280
complication over here, lot of 
geological complication, little 

691
00:48:16,280 --> 00:48:17,880
infrastructure needed to get 
product. 

692
00:48:18,160 --> 00:48:20,360
So think about something like 
diamonds, right? 

693
00:48:20,560 --> 00:48:25,000
The mines are really 
complicated, but you can put the

694
00:48:25,000 --> 00:48:26,920
product on a helicopter and fly 
out. 

695
00:48:27,400 --> 00:48:30,560
You can build the mine anywhere.
You don't need anything to get 

696
00:48:30,560 --> 00:48:34,720
the product. 
Iron ore mine in Australia, just

697
00:48:34,720 --> 00:48:38,320
scraping dirt off the surface, 
not geologically complicated, 

698
00:48:39,080 --> 00:48:41,040
but they have to build a 
railroad. 

699
00:48:41,960 --> 00:48:45,760
They just carry the iron ore to 
the port that they've got to 

700
00:48:45,760 --> 00:48:48,720
build a deep water port that 
they've got to build, right? 

701
00:48:48,840 --> 00:48:51,600
So the infrastructure need is 
huge, right? 

702
00:48:51,600 --> 00:48:53,480
And then? 
Ship it to somebody else that 

703
00:48:53,480 --> 00:48:57,880
needs all the same stuff. 
Yes, exactly copper used. 

704
00:48:57,880 --> 00:49:03,960
To kind of sit in the middle 
where it was hard because it was

705
00:49:03,960 --> 00:49:08,080
geologically difficult and the 
infrastructure was reasonably 

706
00:49:08,080 --> 00:49:11,160
significant. 
Now what's happened is it's gone

707
00:49:11,160 --> 00:49:15,240
like this where the geological 
complication has gotten really 

708
00:49:15,240 --> 00:49:22,680
hot and the infrastructure has 
gotten really big, which makes 

709
00:49:22,680 --> 00:49:27,520
it very hard to accomplish, very
hard to execute, very costly to 

710
00:49:27,520 --> 00:49:32,040
execute. 
And I kind of expect that, you 

711
00:49:32,040 --> 00:49:35,720
know, as demand for copper 
increases and as the easy 

712
00:49:35,720 --> 00:49:40,760
deposits get mined, that spread 
will actually increase, making, 

713
00:49:40,800 --> 00:49:44,040
you know, the demand on the 
copper price go higher, even 

714
00:49:44,040 --> 00:49:50,480
more significant. 
So we had some, some issues with

715
00:49:50,480 --> 00:49:53,040
copper mines last year. 
And, and this is just sort of 

716
00:49:55,200 --> 00:49:56,840
provide a sort of 
characterization of how 

717
00:49:56,840 --> 00:49:58,640
complicated copper mining can 
be. 

718
00:49:58,640 --> 00:50:01,800
You know, people often think a 
mine is just a hole you dig out,

719
00:50:02,560 --> 00:50:06,520
you move on, right. 
But you know, a lot of copper 

720
00:50:06,520 --> 00:50:09,040
mining these days, you, you get 
these assets where they say, 

721
00:50:09,040 --> 00:50:12,000
well, we think we've got to 
produce it via a block cave mom.

722
00:50:12,640 --> 00:50:15,240
And, and I tell people this 
story just because it sort of 

723
00:50:15,240 --> 00:50:18,320
blows their mind with, with what
these guys have to do to get the

724
00:50:18,320 --> 00:50:20,600
copper out. 
And So what is a block cave mom?

725
00:50:21,440 --> 00:50:24,960
So envision a a a giant upper 
deposit. 

726
00:50:24,960 --> 00:50:27,160
It looks like this. 
It's it's like a round ball, 

727
00:50:27,160 --> 00:50:29,400
let's say just for simplicity 
purposes. 

728
00:50:29,640 --> 00:50:34,960
And it is 500 meters below 
ground to a block cave mine. 

729
00:50:35,440 --> 00:50:41,560
They will dig 750 meters down. 
They will build a giant cavern 

730
00:50:41,720 --> 00:50:46,520
below the deposit. 
Then they will drill holes up 

731
00:50:46,640 --> 00:50:50,840
into the deposit from below. 
They will pack those holes with 

732
00:50:50,840 --> 00:50:55,720
explosive and they will clear 
everyone out of the mine and 

733
00:50:55,720 --> 00:51:00,000
they will blow the roof. 
They will hope that they have 

734
00:51:00,000 --> 00:51:05,600
built this thing just run such 
that when they fracture a column

735
00:51:06,040 --> 00:51:12,080
of 750 meters of rock above them
that they then funnel. 

736
00:51:12,080 --> 00:51:14,880
They then the rock that's been 
cracked under the weight of 

737
00:51:14,880 --> 00:51:18,120
gravity in these explosives will
then filter down through these 

738
00:51:18,120 --> 00:51:20,960
funnels they've built in the 
roof of the Tavern that they've 

739
00:51:21,000 --> 00:51:25,760
made. 
If this goes wrong, it's one 

740
00:51:25,760 --> 00:51:29,640
directional bat, meaning once 
they press that that that sort 

741
00:51:29,640 --> 00:51:32,120
of go button. 
If this all doesn't occur 

742
00:51:32,120 --> 00:51:35,960
perfectly, they can't send 
people back underneath it to fix

743
00:51:35,960 --> 00:51:38,840
it because oh, you got to like. 
Re dig the whole thing. 

744
00:51:39,160 --> 00:51:41,640
No, no, there's no RE. 
Digging of the whole thing. 

745
00:51:41,800 --> 00:51:44,080
Oh, really? 
You ruin it, You're done. 

746
00:51:44,200 --> 00:51:47,080
Wow. 
Because you have fractured all 

747
00:51:47,080 --> 00:51:50,600
of the rock above you and it can
all just collapse on top. 

748
00:51:51,680 --> 00:51:58,120
And, you know, look and these 
things that process billions of 

749
00:51:58,120 --> 00:52:00,600
dollars to build and takes 
years. 

750
00:52:02,680 --> 00:52:07,720
And, and Shreveport Mcmoran had 
a problem this last year at the 

751
00:52:07,720 --> 00:52:10,800
Grasberg mine, which is, is 
their largest copper mine and 

752
00:52:10,800 --> 00:52:16,960
one of the world's largest, most
important copper mines, where a 

753
00:52:16,960 --> 00:52:21,240
lot of water got into that 
column and into all those 

754
00:52:21,240 --> 00:52:24,400
fractures. 
And they are aware of that and 

755
00:52:24,400 --> 00:52:27,360
they monitor that and they keep,
you know, they keep a close eye 

756
00:52:27,360 --> 00:52:29,080
on that. 
But of course, you can only see 

757
00:52:29,080 --> 00:52:31,520
so much, right, with radar and 
stuff like that. 

758
00:52:31,800 --> 00:52:34,600
And what ended up happening was 
one of these little shoots, or 

759
00:52:34,600 --> 00:52:36,240
this is roughly what ended up 
happening. 

760
00:52:36,400 --> 00:52:39,880
One of these little shoots like 
it got a rock sucking right and 

761
00:52:39,880 --> 00:52:42,160
up above, you know, filled with 
a lot of water. 

762
00:52:42,880 --> 00:52:46,080
And then when the guy comes by 
with his, his bucket loader, he 

763
00:52:46,080 --> 00:52:53,560
knocked the rock and you had a 
flood of thousands of tons of 

764
00:52:53,800 --> 00:53:00,800
liquidy mud that basically just 
turned to cement in the, you 

765
00:53:00,800 --> 00:53:04,800
know, in the, the mine. 
And, and so they've got to try 

766
00:53:04,800 --> 00:53:08,200
and monitor all these things. 
Now, not all mines are blocking 

767
00:53:08,360 --> 00:53:10,840
since they're not very common, 
but, you know, we're getting to 

768
00:53:10,840 --> 00:53:15,400
the point where they, you know, 
those types of activities, those

769
00:53:15,400 --> 00:53:18,560
types of engineering efforts are
what is needed. 

770
00:53:19,800 --> 00:53:23,880
That dude make it or no? 
No, but a couple of guys died. 

771
00:53:23,880 --> 00:53:27,720
That's sad, you know. 
Maybe it happened so quick you 

772
00:53:27,720 --> 00:53:30,480
didn't really feel it. 
Yeah, no doubt I. 

773
00:53:30,480 --> 00:53:30,880
Don't. 
Yeah. 

774
00:53:30,880 --> 00:53:32,360
I have no idea how quick that 
you know. 

775
00:53:32,400 --> 00:53:33,320
I don't know. 
I don't. 

776
00:53:33,320 --> 00:53:36,760
I don't think it's like those 
ocean gate guys, you know, went 

777
00:53:36,760 --> 00:53:38,880
down to the Titanic. 
Yeah. 

778
00:53:39,240 --> 00:53:40,280
They don't think it's that 
quick. 

779
00:53:40,480 --> 00:53:42,600
I think I don't. 
Mean to laugh at those guys, but

780
00:53:42,600 --> 00:53:45,000
also you don't need to go down 
to the Titanic. 

781
00:53:45,120 --> 00:53:46,680
No, and I don't think you do, 
man. 

782
00:53:46,680 --> 00:53:48,360
Come on. 
It's come on. 

783
00:53:50,040 --> 00:53:52,760
We all have weird, weird things 
we want to do. 

784
00:53:53,280 --> 00:53:54,960
That's true. 
None of I don't think any of 

785
00:53:54,960 --> 00:53:56,560
mine want to are going to kill 
me. 

786
00:53:56,640 --> 00:53:59,680
But hang on, can I go get a soda
real quick? 

787
00:53:59,920 --> 00:54:00,960
Yeah, go. 
For it, go for. 

788
00:54:01,120 --> 00:54:04,920
It hang on one SEC. 
This episode is brought to you 

789
00:54:04,920 --> 00:54:08,200
by Trata. 
You can find Trata at 

790
00:54:08,200 --> 00:54:14,320
tritrata.com/brew. 
Trata is a transcript library 

791
00:54:14,320 --> 00:54:19,040
that has interviews of analyst 
and analyst. 

792
00:54:19,280 --> 00:54:22,720
So, you know, the difference is 
sometimes you'll get on the 

793
00:54:22,720 --> 00:54:26,040
major transcript platforms and 
it'll be an analyst talking to 

794
00:54:26,040 --> 00:54:29,360
an expert and maybe that 
platform is trying to fill some 

795
00:54:29,360 --> 00:54:31,440
space and you get a lot of 
filler. 

796
00:54:33,760 --> 00:54:38,560
I have. 
Found the transcripts on Trata 

797
00:54:38,560 --> 00:54:44,480
to be a higher level of 
discussion I was flipping 

798
00:54:44,480 --> 00:54:48,760
through today. 
A constellation transcript that 

799
00:54:48,760 --> 00:54:52,600
dropped, it looks like it was 
recorded on the 23rd 1 analyst 

800
00:54:52,600 --> 00:54:55,920
says The largest concern for me 
and why we're not long the stock

801
00:54:55,920 --> 00:54:58,360
today is inorganic growth. 
When you look at growth and 

802
00:54:58,360 --> 00:55:02,200
disaggregate it on an organic 
side, they might take 2 to 3% a 

803
00:55:02,200 --> 00:55:05,120
year in price, but the inorganic
growth engine has really been 

804
00:55:05,120 --> 00:55:07,400
the bread and butter yadda 
yadda. 

805
00:55:08,280 --> 00:55:14,640
So then you're reading and 
Analyst 2 says Constellation's 

806
00:55:14,640 --> 00:55:18,560
market share, transaction share 
has grown since 2021. 

807
00:55:18,560 --> 00:55:21,800
This is completely contrary to 
the consensus view, which is 

808
00:55:21,800 --> 00:55:24,520
that competition has ramped up 
in the last 18 months. 

809
00:55:24,960 --> 00:55:28,560
I think a number of copycats 
launched in the last 12 months 

810
00:55:29,040 --> 00:55:32,200
is probably lower than in the 12
months before that. 

811
00:55:32,200 --> 00:55:34,840
I think the number of copycats 
launched in the last 12 months 

812
00:55:34,840 --> 00:55:36,680
is probably lower than the 12 
months before that. 

813
00:55:37,680 --> 00:55:44,040
End of the day I find that these
transcripts identify an issue 

814
00:55:44,040 --> 00:55:47,240
and then you can hear 2 analysts
going back and forth on the 

815
00:55:47,240 --> 00:55:50,160
issue. 
So if that's the type of product

816
00:55:50,440 --> 00:55:55,080
that could be additive to your 
process you should try Trata. 

817
00:55:56,680 --> 00:56:00,880
And again Trata is try 
trata.com/brew. 

818
00:56:02,240 --> 00:56:06,560
If for any reason that doesn't 
work try try trata.com and ping 

819
00:56:06,560 --> 00:56:09,080
me and say you'll build the 
affiliate links. 

820
00:56:09,080 --> 00:56:11,520
Not working. 
So you may not be getting all 

821
00:56:12,040 --> 00:56:17,880
the props that you deserve, and 
you deserve the props anyway. 

822
00:56:18,800 --> 00:56:22,760
That is what they do. 
I have found the there's value 

823
00:56:22,760 --> 00:56:25,400
in these transcripts. 
So if this is something that 

824
00:56:25,400 --> 00:56:27,440
your process involves, try 
Trata. 

825
00:56:30,280 --> 00:56:35,720
This episode is also brought to 
you by the OG sponsor Fiscal dot

826
00:56:35,840 --> 00:56:38,160
AI. 
You already. 

827
00:56:38,160 --> 00:56:41,000
Know the pitch. 
If you don't, you should listen 

828
00:56:41,000 --> 00:56:45,080
to the episode with Brayden 
Dennis, in part because it's a 

829
00:56:45,080 --> 00:56:50,520
great episode of, you know, like
one, he's a good guy to 

830
00:56:50,520 --> 00:56:53,480
interview 2. 
He's a good guy, period 3. 

831
00:56:55,480 --> 00:56:58,080
I find that. 
To be a good business episode 

832
00:56:58,080 --> 00:57:00,280
and he lays out what they're 
doing with fiscal AI. 

833
00:57:00,760 --> 00:57:03,960
Historically, these reads have 
sort of focused on, hey, if 

834
00:57:03,960 --> 00:57:07,760
you're looking for a financial 
data provider, fiscal dot AI 

835
00:57:07,760 --> 00:57:12,400
forward slash brew is a great 
way to get a discount and a free

836
00:57:12,400 --> 00:57:16,000
trial for two weeks and you can 
try that. 

837
00:57:17,000 --> 00:57:19,680
I'm going to, I'm going to skew 
this read a little bit more 

838
00:57:19,680 --> 00:57:23,480
towards the enterprise folks, 
especially with cloud code and 

839
00:57:23,480 --> 00:57:26,920
all this vibe coding going on. 
If you need data. 

840
00:57:27,800 --> 00:57:30,360
That you. 
Can pull into your own models or

841
00:57:30,360 --> 00:57:34,360
your own processes at a. 
More. 

842
00:57:34,360 --> 00:57:36,800
Sophisticated level and an 
enterprise level. 

843
00:57:36,800 --> 00:57:39,480
I would highly encourage you to 
reach out to Brennan Braden and 

844
00:57:39,480 --> 00:57:42,400
the team that is the market that
they are going for. 

845
00:57:42,680 --> 00:57:45,920
They believe that they can 
provide you with the value that 

846
00:57:45,920 --> 00:57:51,520
you would have to pay a much 
larger, much more expensive data

847
00:57:51,520 --> 00:57:53,440
provider. 
They think that they can do it 

848
00:57:53,440 --> 00:57:56,840
for a lot cheaper, and that 
means that you're winning and 

849
00:57:56,840 --> 00:57:59,960
they're winning and that's win, 
win, and that's good stuff. 

850
00:58:00,440 --> 00:58:05,680
So go to fiscal dot AI forward 
slash brew so that you can try 

851
00:58:05,680 --> 00:58:09,480
the product with a discount and 
do reach out to Braden and his 

852
00:58:09,480 --> 00:58:12,480
team for the enterprise level 
stuff. 

853
00:58:12,520 --> 00:58:15,800
If that is something that may 
interest you, it is probably 

854
00:58:15,800 --> 00:58:22,120
worth your time. 
Yeah, I I think the only thing 

855
00:58:22,120 --> 00:58:25,920
that might kill me is my general
affinity for basic materials 

856
00:58:26,200 --> 00:58:30,520
ideas right now. 
Do you know anything about 

857
00:58:30,520 --> 00:58:35,360
caustic soda? 
Not really, man. 

858
00:58:35,360 --> 00:58:36,800
I. 
Wish I knew Olin better. 

859
00:58:36,880 --> 00:58:38,520
I'd like. 
I just wish I knew it. 

860
00:58:38,520 --> 00:58:40,920
I don't know what the hell I'm 
talking about, but I look at it.

861
00:58:40,920 --> 00:58:42,760
I'm like, this is so. 
And I know some of the people 

862
00:58:42,760 --> 00:58:43,960
that own it. 
Just looks cheap. 

863
00:58:44,920 --> 00:58:49,600
Oh well, yeah. 
No, I I've looked at it before, 

864
00:58:49,600 --> 00:58:52,640
but not in a long time. 
I don't. 

865
00:58:52,680 --> 00:58:55,320
Yeah, I don't really know much 
about caustic soda. 

866
00:58:55,760 --> 00:58:58,120
Yeah. 
I'd Mike, I gather a lot of it 

867
00:58:58,240 --> 00:59:00,320
is somewhat tied to building 
construction. 

868
00:59:00,320 --> 00:59:04,040
So it's wild how much stuff is I
mean, you know, like the EV 

869
00:59:04,160 --> 00:59:08,480
discussion, obviously EV 
adoption has slowed. 

870
00:59:08,480 --> 00:59:11,920
I have not looked at the share 
of new autos. 

871
00:59:11,920 --> 00:59:18,680
I there's no way that reducing 
the tax incentive like helps, 

872
00:59:18,880 --> 00:59:21,600
right? 
But overall, I kind of wonder 

873
00:59:21,600 --> 00:59:25,040
how much of the, the slowing 
down is mostly an interest rate 

874
00:59:25,040 --> 00:59:27,080
story. 
Some of it's the early adopters 

875
00:59:27,080 --> 00:59:31,520
have adopted and and that, but I
don't know, I, I. 

876
00:59:31,520 --> 00:59:36,240
Think a lot of it actually just 
has to do with the fact that the

877
00:59:36,800 --> 00:59:44,840
at least in the United States, 
the selection, yeah, I've driven

878
00:59:45,160 --> 00:59:47,440
a couple of Chinese EVs, I hear 
they're. 

879
00:59:47,440 --> 00:59:50,080
Nuts. 
They're really slick. 

880
00:59:50,240 --> 00:59:53,280
Yeah, I I think that. 
Well, thank you for. 

881
00:59:53,280 --> 00:59:55,400
Supporting our our mortal 
enemies, Sir. 

882
00:59:55,680 --> 00:59:56,640
Yeah, well. 
I didn't. 

883
00:59:56,640 --> 00:59:58,240
I didn't buy one. 
I didn't say I bought 1. 

884
00:59:58,400 --> 01:00:02,360
I just said I've driven them. 
I've I. 

885
01:00:02,360 --> 01:00:08,880
Drive an old used Chevy Cruze 
that I insist on driving until 

886
01:00:08,880 --> 01:00:11,120
it falls apart. 
It's like my. 

887
01:00:11,160 --> 01:00:15,000
Volvo, yeah, 90,000 miles on it.
Looking for 90 more? 

888
01:00:15,320 --> 01:00:17,280
Yeah. 
Yeah, that I'm, I'm of that 

889
01:00:17,280 --> 01:00:20,800
mindset. 
But yeah, I mean I, I think. 

890
01:00:21,560 --> 01:00:23,720
You know, like that Ford. 
Lightning, that was really cool,

891
01:00:23,800 --> 01:00:26,200
but they don't even make it 
anymore now. 

892
01:00:26,480 --> 01:00:29,520
Yeah, You know, And then what? 
What do you got? 

893
01:00:29,520 --> 01:00:31,800
You got Tesla, I don't think. 
When was the last? 

894
01:00:32,000 --> 01:00:33,520
Time, Tesla, Scalia. 
It's got one. 

895
01:00:36,600 --> 01:00:39,400
Your selection is. 
It's really limited, very poor. 

896
01:00:40,240 --> 01:00:43,080
Ribbian. 
Ribbian was I That's a real 

897
01:00:43,160 --> 01:00:44,840
conduct. 
They sell a. 

898
01:00:44,840 --> 01:00:49,080
Lot man. 
So I'm in Charlotte, NC Gosh, 

899
01:00:49,080 --> 01:00:50,960
those guys are doing well down 
here. 

900
01:00:51,320 --> 01:00:53,520
I don't know if you know, I 
think they lose they lose money.

901
01:00:53,520 --> 01:00:57,440
They lose quite a bit of money 
per car my understanding, but 

902
01:00:58,080 --> 01:00:59,480
make it up some. 
Scale, baby. 

903
01:00:59,880 --> 01:01:02,920
Yeah, maybe. 
Maybe there's a lot of them down

904
01:01:02,920 --> 01:01:07,480
here, everyone, every housewife 
driving to the Country Club and 

905
01:01:07,480 --> 01:01:11,040
whatnot. 
It's got a Rivia SUV, not a bad.

906
01:01:11,040 --> 01:01:17,240
Whip I, I would drive it for 
sure, but I, I, I justify my to 

907
01:01:17,240 --> 01:01:20,360
the extent that I have an 
environmental bone in my body, 

908
01:01:20,360 --> 01:01:25,280
which I do, But I, I just say, 
well, I think holding on to my 

909
01:01:25,280 --> 01:01:29,440
current car is less 
environmentally harmful than 

910
01:01:29,440 --> 01:01:32,760
trading in cars all the time. 
Now, maybe that's a flawed way 

911
01:01:32,760 --> 01:01:35,800
to think and I'm definitely open
to that, but I don't know. 

912
01:01:36,440 --> 01:01:41,440
I don't know. 
I, I just drive so my office is 

913
01:01:41,440 --> 01:01:44,800
like 5 miles away from work from
from home. 

914
01:01:45,440 --> 01:01:48,920
So I drive, you know, cops 10 
miles a day type of thing. 

915
01:01:49,160 --> 01:01:52,000
The end. 
Otherwise if I'm going someplace

916
01:01:52,000 --> 01:02:01,080
it's with my wife and kids in 
the FTV and she needs a big car,

917
01:02:01,760 --> 01:02:05,360
kids and all crap and whatnot. 
Well, I'm aware of this. 

918
01:02:05,360 --> 01:02:06,640
Story. 
Yeah, yeah. 

919
01:02:06,760 --> 01:02:09,080
Yeah. 
So I just don't see any reason 

920
01:02:09,080 --> 01:02:11,400
to change my car for 5 miles a 
day. 

921
01:02:11,400 --> 01:02:15,160
I, I figure figure I can make 
the thing last another 15 years 

922
01:02:15,160 --> 01:02:18,160
as long as I don't, you know, 
get forced to get rid of it. 

923
01:02:18,720 --> 01:02:20,720
Yeah. 
Well, the real story with mine 

924
01:02:20,720 --> 01:02:28,680
is the Kelley Blue Yes. 
Yeah, that's, that's probably 

925
01:02:28,680 --> 01:02:30,200
true of mine as well because I, 
I. 

926
01:02:30,200 --> 01:02:33,120
Know it, right? 
It's like I know the warts. 

927
01:02:33,120 --> 01:02:36,120
There aren't many. 
There's no way it's worth what 

928
01:02:36,120 --> 01:02:38,800
they think it's worth, so I'll 
just hold it until I don't. 

929
01:02:38,800 --> 01:02:43,920
Whatever this this is. 
What people came on the podcast 

930
01:02:43,920 --> 01:02:50,440
to hear about was our cars. 
Yeah, well, it is it. 

931
01:02:50,440 --> 01:02:53,960
Is interesting to think about. 
I mean, like you had zero 

932
01:02:53,960 --> 01:02:58,440
interest rates or near 0 plus 
the stimulus and all the 

933
01:02:58,440 --> 01:03:02,920
incentives to buy the EVs. 
It's just I how many, how many 

934
01:03:02,920 --> 01:03:06,360
bull whips are we still working 
through from like a combo of 

935
01:03:06,360 --> 01:03:09,200
COVID and policy? 
I think we're almost done with 

936
01:03:09,200 --> 01:03:11,120
them, but I still think that 
there's some. 

937
01:03:14,560 --> 01:03:20,000
Yeah, that stimulus that lasts a
long time, I think you're 

938
01:03:20,000 --> 01:03:22,720
probably right. 
I think we probably got to be at

939
01:03:22,800 --> 01:03:27,880
the end of it at this point. 
But boy, did that that was 

940
01:03:27,880 --> 01:03:32,000
surprising Juice in terms of its
longevity. 

941
01:03:32,360 --> 01:03:38,280
Yeah, I, you know, I, I hope we 
don't learn the wrong lesson 

942
01:03:38,280 --> 01:03:42,400
from that. 
I'm sure we did or, or, or at 

943
01:03:42,400 --> 01:03:44,160
least I sure we did for a little
while. 

944
01:03:44,240 --> 01:03:45,520
Right. 
And actually, this is something 

945
01:03:45,520 --> 01:03:49,720
I, I talked about in my letter. 
Like, I'm not certain that, you 

946
01:03:49,720 --> 01:03:52,840
know, like if the economy falls 
over under Trump, I'm sure that 

947
01:03:52,840 --> 01:03:56,440
he will try to juice it in any 
way he can. 

948
01:03:57,480 --> 01:04:03,240
But I don't think the 
wherewithal to continue doing 

949
01:04:03,240 --> 01:04:05,600
that is is going to be there 
much longer. 

950
01:04:06,480 --> 01:04:10,280
And I don't, I mean the the 
fiscal capability is probably 

951
01:04:10,280 --> 01:04:12,440
not going to be there much long.
Yeah. 

952
01:04:12,600 --> 01:04:17,040
So, you know, did this pattern 
that we've gotten into where 

953
01:04:17,040 --> 01:04:20,320
everyone is very comfortable 
buying the dip because policy is

954
01:04:20,320 --> 01:04:24,760
going to be there to, you know, 
put a floor underneath that one 

955
01:04:24,760 --> 01:04:28,600
of these days very soon, that 
trend has got to come to an end.

956
01:04:29,800 --> 01:04:32,040
I mean, this is kind of why 
people are buying gold, right? 

957
01:04:32,480 --> 01:04:37,040
Yeah. 
I think so, you know, at least 

958
01:04:37,040 --> 01:04:38,200
at. 
Least you know what your 

959
01:04:38,200 --> 01:04:43,080
monetary value is and Oz right, 
Maybe not dollars, but you have 

960
01:04:43,080 --> 01:04:47,640
an idea. 
I know it's why people aren't 

961
01:04:47,640 --> 01:04:48,920
buying. 
Well, I think it's why people 

962
01:04:48,920 --> 01:04:54,280
aren't buying bonds. 
So I don't know it's it's a very

963
01:04:54,280 --> 01:04:56,680
I mean, I guess every every time
is interesting. 

964
01:04:56,680 --> 01:05:02,160
I do feel like, you know, I 
always felt like the Peter 

965
01:05:02,160 --> 01:05:04,760
shifts of the world. 
Well, I'll just say Peter Schiff

966
01:05:04,760 --> 01:05:06,640
since there's only one Peter 
Schiff of the world. 

967
01:05:07,040 --> 01:05:11,200
But I always felt like he was 
kind of like knocking on the 

968
01:05:11,200 --> 01:05:14,520
wrong door until the stimulus 
which I missed. 

969
01:05:14,520 --> 01:05:17,240
I, I did not see it. 
But now I get what I missed. 

970
01:05:18,440 --> 01:05:21,520
You know, that was like a real 
change and a smarter me would 

971
01:05:21,520 --> 01:05:23,480
have seen it. 
But who knows, maybe there will 

972
01:05:23,480 --> 01:05:26,640
be another one that I do see. 
Experience. 

973
01:05:26,640 --> 01:05:28,520
Is what you get when you don't 
get what you want. 

974
01:05:30,560 --> 01:05:32,120
I haven't heard that before. 
I like that. 

975
01:05:32,120 --> 01:05:34,800
Oh, yeah, man, Where's that 
from? 

976
01:05:35,200 --> 01:05:37,320
I don't know. 
But I got plenty of experience 

977
01:05:37,320 --> 01:05:40,640
so I've heard it a couple times.
Yeah. 

978
01:05:40,640 --> 01:05:46,520
Well, experience is important. 
Yeah, you can, you can learn 

979
01:05:46,520 --> 01:05:49,040
from other people's experience 
as much as you want, but it 

980
01:05:49,040 --> 01:05:50,880
doesn't doesn't hit like your 
own experience. 

981
01:05:51,600 --> 01:05:53,840
Yeah. 
I think it's not margins. 

982
01:05:55,960 --> 01:05:59,320
That's my experience. 
I mean, it's like, you know, 

983
01:05:59,440 --> 01:06:05,280
there's only so much reading. 
For me at least, the emotions 

984
01:06:05,320 --> 01:06:08,440
of, of owning things and going 
through things is a lot 

985
01:06:08,440 --> 01:06:10,920
different than what you read 
about. 

986
01:06:11,600 --> 01:06:13,160
Yeah. 
Well, it's one of the reasons 

987
01:06:13,160 --> 01:06:16,360
why I like if I'm getting 
serious about something, even if

988
01:06:16,360 --> 01:06:18,600
I'm not necessarily all that 
serious about it, even if I'm 

989
01:06:18,640 --> 01:06:23,080
just getting started, I got to 
put on a position to really 

990
01:06:25,280 --> 01:06:25,920
care. 
Care. 

991
01:06:26,880 --> 01:06:29,000
What'd you say to like care? 
Care. 

992
01:06:29,480 --> 01:06:31,640
Yeah. 
To like, care, yeah. 

993
01:06:31,760 --> 01:06:33,960
There's caring and then there's 
caring, caring there's. 

994
01:06:34,560 --> 01:06:42,600
Caring and, and, and there's 
also, you know, sort of, you 

995
01:06:42,600 --> 01:06:45,480
know, research, research can 
drag on for a long time. 

996
01:06:45,480 --> 01:06:50,080
You got to give yourself sort of
a boost to like pursue the 

997
01:06:50,080 --> 01:06:54,680
research with urgency. 
His position's on. 

998
01:06:54,680 --> 01:06:56,800
There's a there's a bit of 
urgency because there could be 

999
01:06:56,800 --> 01:06:58,920
money lost. 
Yeah, that's right. 

1000
01:06:59,720 --> 01:07:01,120
Well, Chris Meyer. 
Wrote that book. 

1001
01:07:01,120 --> 01:07:04,480
How do you know? 
You know, it's somewhere on my 

1002
01:07:04,480 --> 01:07:09,320
on my shelf, but that I, I find 
that hard, you know, like I, I 

1003
01:07:09,320 --> 01:07:11,320
don't know, I, I mean, read 
that. 

1004
01:07:11,320 --> 01:07:12,320
Book. 
What did he say? 

1005
01:07:13,560 --> 01:07:16,440
I would need to reread it to to 
tell you, but I know he wrote it

1006
01:07:16,440 --> 01:07:18,560
and people should check it out 
to help him out. 

1007
01:07:18,560 --> 01:07:23,720
But I I don't know the answer to
When you know, you know I I do 

1008
01:07:23,720 --> 01:07:28,000
know that. 
I do know that. 

1009
01:07:28,000 --> 01:07:31,120
Owning something is different 
than researching something, Yes.

1010
01:07:31,760 --> 01:07:33,880
Without without question and I 
know. 

1011
01:07:33,880 --> 01:07:35,880
That I've thought that I've 
known things and then I've owned

1012
01:07:35,880 --> 01:07:37,520
them and I've been like, I don't
know this. 

1013
01:07:39,480 --> 01:07:43,080
But. 
I don't know I've I've been 

1014
01:07:43,080 --> 01:07:45,560
spending. 
I've been. 

1015
01:07:45,560 --> 01:07:48,000
Spending more time trying to 
find interesting management 

1016
01:07:48,000 --> 01:07:50,360
teams and that's been a a fun 
use of time. 

1017
01:07:51,160 --> 01:07:55,640
I don't know that it's the the 
best way to outperform, but I 

1018
01:07:55,920 --> 01:07:58,320
it's been a. 
It's been. 

1019
01:07:58,320 --> 01:08:02,280
Time that I've enjoyed spending.
So to the extent that some of 

1020
01:08:02,280 --> 01:08:05,840
this is for a life reward, it's 
helpful in that way, yeah. 

1021
01:08:05,840 --> 01:08:09,520
But I think it's, I mean, 
they're very, you know, we 

1022
01:08:09,520 --> 01:08:13,000
always talk about sort of Warren
Buffett's little aphorisms and, 

1023
01:08:13,000 --> 01:08:15,560
you know, he wants a business 
that even an idiot can run. 

1024
01:08:16,720 --> 01:08:20,240
I challenge that concept not 
because he's wrong. 

1025
01:08:20,279 --> 01:08:22,160
Are there any? 
Well, that's that's. 

1026
01:08:22,160 --> 01:08:24,479
Where I'm going, I I'd love to 
find a business an idiot can 

1027
01:08:24,479 --> 01:08:26,240
run. 
I'm not sure I've ever seen one.

1028
01:08:26,520 --> 01:08:29,800
Yeah. 
And that's, that's a lot of what

1029
01:08:29,800 --> 01:08:31,560
I spend my time. 
When you you know, you talk 

1030
01:08:31,560 --> 01:08:33,160
about them. 
My companies. 

1031
01:08:33,279 --> 01:08:35,760
I, I think of them all as 
project, right? 

1032
01:08:35,760 --> 01:08:40,200
They they all got a big project 
or maybe they have multiple big 

1033
01:08:40,200 --> 01:08:45,359
projects and you think about or 
read about or experience, you 

1034
01:08:45,359 --> 01:08:47,640
know what makes a project 
successful. 

1035
01:08:48,160 --> 01:08:55,560
It is absolute managed, you 
know, getting a project off the 

1036
01:08:55,560 --> 01:08:58,880
ground you need. 
I had someone say it to me, 

1037
01:08:58,880 --> 01:09:02,080
recent management team tell me 
about they're saying we're 

1038
01:09:02,080 --> 01:09:05,840
firefighters every day, you 
know, they're building, you know

1039
01:09:05,840 --> 01:09:07,720
they're spending a billion 
dollars to build something. 

1040
01:09:07,960 --> 01:09:11,720
Every day there's a fire that we
need to put out, we need to stay

1041
01:09:11,760 --> 01:09:16,000
on schedule and you know, on 
budget, etcetera, etcetera. 

1042
01:09:16,200 --> 01:09:19,479
And so we need to be there, you 
know, putting out fires on a 

1043
01:09:19,479 --> 01:09:22,040
continuous basis until the 
project is done. 

1044
01:09:25,000 --> 01:09:26,319
You got to have a good 
management team to do that. 

1045
01:09:26,319 --> 01:09:30,000
And you got to have the right 
management team for for the one 

1046
01:09:30,000 --> 01:09:33,160
of the that I've found, or one 
of my observations I've found 

1047
01:09:33,800 --> 01:09:36,399
really interesting that I think 
it took me a little while to 

1048
01:09:36,399 --> 01:09:41,040
learn was that, you know, we're 
in a company's life cycle. 

1049
01:09:41,080 --> 01:09:43,600
It is, yeah. 
Or it's very different 

1050
01:09:43,600 --> 01:09:46,920
management team. 
And I mean, you, you think about

1051
01:09:46,920 --> 01:09:51,920
that with something like, right,
Tim Cook, perfect management 

1052
01:09:51,920 --> 01:09:57,040
team or or CEO for that period 
of time after Steve Jobs, like 

1053
01:09:57,320 --> 01:09:59,840
they've made the innovation. 
It's like when you look now and 

1054
01:09:59,840 --> 01:10:04,960
has innovative anything is on 
the same iPhone, Steve Jobs, but

1055
01:10:05,520 --> 01:10:09,080
made a fortune with it because 
he was the right manager for, 

1056
01:10:09,320 --> 01:10:12,160
you know, supply chains, 
logistics, construction, you 

1057
01:10:12,160 --> 01:10:15,560
know, etcetera. 
Who knows if Steve Jobs would 

1058
01:10:15,560 --> 01:10:16,840
have been the right manager for 
that? 

1059
01:10:18,440 --> 01:10:21,720
Maybe they would have already 
moved on to some new something 

1060
01:10:21,720 --> 01:10:26,760
and then he had come up with 
syncing your management team, 

1061
01:10:26,760 --> 01:10:31,000
your life cycle critical. 
What do you? 

1062
01:10:31,000 --> 01:10:34,600
Think makes the Lundin's capable
of. 

1063
01:10:36,280 --> 01:10:39,080
Passing. 
On like intergenerational 

1064
01:10:39,080 --> 01:11:00,240
skills. 
I don't know. 

1065
01:11:00,720 --> 01:11:05,640
That's a really good question. 
I mean, I, I guess I get in 

1066
01:11:05,640 --> 01:11:10,720
trouble for saying this, but I, 
I think that if we go back and 

1067
01:11:10,720 --> 01:11:18,000
look at so Lucas Lundin was the 
second generation, Adam and Jack

1068
01:11:18,000 --> 01:11:20,840
and got a third brother whose 
name is escaping you right now 

1069
01:11:20,840 --> 01:11:24,880
is a third generation think that
the father the, the father of 

1070
01:11:24,880 --> 01:11:31,080
Lucas, his name was Adolf. 
Adolf had successes. 

1071
01:11:31,600 --> 01:11:38,240
I think he had a couple of big 
wolves, but he wasn't quite the 

1072
01:11:38,240 --> 01:11:44,360
success that Lucas was. 
I think, you know, if there 

1073
01:11:44,360 --> 01:11:48,840
hadn't been a Lucas, we wouldn't
know who the Lundeens were if 

1074
01:11:48,840 --> 01:11:50,440
they had just taken what Adolf 
had done. 

1075
01:11:50,440 --> 01:11:57,040
So, so Adolf had one skill set 
and and he was successful at and

1076
01:11:57,040 --> 01:12:02,080
successful in a big way. 
But it it really was Lucas, the 

1077
01:12:02,080 --> 01:12:04,280
second generation that 
supercharged it. 

1078
01:12:04,520 --> 01:12:08,920
And now we're still at the early
stages of the third generation, 

1079
01:12:08,920 --> 01:12:13,160
right. 
So Jack Lundeen has taken over 

1080
01:12:13,160 --> 01:12:17,680
Lundeen Mining as CEO or Jack is
like 36. 

1081
01:12:17,960 --> 01:12:21,760
This is the first mine that 
he's, he's going to be in charge

1082
01:12:21,760 --> 01:12:23,280
of building a Vacuna, if you 
will. 

1083
01:12:23,760 --> 01:12:27,280
This is the first mine he's 
going to build, You know, So in 

1084
01:12:27,280 --> 01:12:32,320
some regards we are right now in
the sort of the trial period, if

1085
01:12:32,360 --> 01:12:35,480
you will, where, where this 
third generation is really going

1086
01:12:35,480 --> 01:12:37,560
to have to have to prove 
themselves. 

1087
01:12:37,840 --> 01:12:47,080
I do think that they didn't say 
this to me, but this is the type

1088
01:12:47,080 --> 01:12:49,200
of people they are actually a 
different manager say this to 

1089
01:12:49,200 --> 01:12:53,040
me. 
The this management team said to

1090
01:12:53,040 --> 01:12:56,400
me, you know, we're going to be 
here for this phase of it, but 

1091
01:12:56,400 --> 01:13:00,080
then we're going to have to find
someone else, be the CEO in a 

1092
01:13:00,080 --> 01:13:02,720
couple of years because I can't 
do XY and Z. 

1093
01:13:04,560 --> 01:13:10,280
Think the one Deans have raised 
group of people up around them 

1094
01:13:13,480 --> 01:13:19,080
and built this team around them 
that has been very capable of 

1095
01:13:20,200 --> 01:13:24,640
pointing out when they're over 
their skis and they have 

1096
01:13:24,640 --> 01:13:27,040
listened to them. 
And I don't think they've 

1097
01:13:27,040 --> 01:13:29,920
allowed themselves to get in 
many situations, no, but. 

1098
01:13:29,960 --> 01:13:33,160
That's good to have people 
around you that'll tell you and 

1099
01:13:33,320 --> 01:13:35,440
you have the ability to listen. 
That's good stuff. 

1100
01:13:35,880 --> 01:13:37,040
And. 
So I don't Yeah. 

1101
01:13:37,040 --> 01:13:39,000
And so I, I think that is 
critical. 

1102
01:13:39,000 --> 01:13:41,920
I don't know how you love to, 
you know, teach my daughters 

1103
01:13:41,920 --> 01:13:44,280
that skill set, right. 
Like I don't know how you teach 

1104
01:13:44,280 --> 01:13:48,800
that skill set. 
Takes a level of humility. 

1105
01:13:49,760 --> 01:13:52,240
Well, yeah. 
And and so there's got to be 

1106
01:13:52,240 --> 01:13:57,080
some sort of activity. 
I think I, I don't understand 

1107
01:13:57,080 --> 01:14:01,600
people in in equity markets that
are really arrogant because 

1108
01:14:01,640 --> 01:14:06,360
equity markets punish you so 
frequent on such a regular basis

1109
01:14:06,360 --> 01:14:09,480
that I don't know how you can 
have like a ripped roaring ego 

1110
01:14:09,720 --> 01:14:13,080
if you like, are a trader or 
something in markets frequent. 

1111
01:14:14,560 --> 01:14:16,880
Maybe there's something about, 
you know, the fact that they're 

1112
01:14:16,880 --> 01:14:20,760
in a business that that punishes
people for errors that, you 

1113
01:14:21,880 --> 01:14:23,520
know, their lives at risk, 
etcetera. 

1114
01:14:24,160 --> 01:14:29,080
Bring down the ego a little bit.
But I don't know, it's a good 

1115
01:14:29,080 --> 01:14:31,880
question. 
I mean, they all also, I don't 

1116
01:14:31,880 --> 01:14:38,680
think that, you know, there's a 
story that, that, that everyone 

1117
01:14:38,680 --> 01:14:40,960
was sort of sat down every 
generation then like, hey, 

1118
01:14:40,960 --> 01:14:43,000
you're the oil guy, you're the 
mining guy, you're, you know, 

1119
01:14:43,320 --> 01:14:45,000
the parents saying what you're 
going to do. 

1120
01:14:45,560 --> 01:14:48,240
It's not clear to me that that 
actually is the case. 

1121
01:14:48,520 --> 01:14:51,760
Like the eldest brother, it's 
got nothing to do with. 

1122
01:14:51,920 --> 01:14:53,680
I mean, he, he's, he runs a 
hedge fund. 

1123
01:14:53,760 --> 01:14:55,960
He, he's got nothing to do. 
I mean, they invest in mining 

1124
01:14:55,960 --> 01:14:58,400
firms, you know, so there's 
relation there. 

1125
01:14:58,920 --> 01:15:00,720
In essence, he went off and did 
his own thing. 

1126
01:15:01,520 --> 01:15:07,120
So I'm also not sure if, you 
know, they were guided to it or 

1127
01:15:07,120 --> 01:15:08,600
they were forced into it or, or 
whatnot. 

1128
01:15:08,600 --> 01:15:10,920
But I, I think they come to 
their interest in these 

1129
01:15:10,920 --> 01:15:13,640
businesses natural. 
But I think it's also probably 

1130
01:15:13,640 --> 01:15:15,960
critical. 
And I'm not sure with family 

1131
01:15:15,960 --> 01:15:22,400
businesses if that is, you know,
as common as perhaps it should 

1132
01:15:22,400 --> 01:15:24,080
be. 
Yeah. 

1133
01:15:24,320 --> 01:15:26,720
I don't think so. 
I think a lot of family members 

1134
01:15:26,720 --> 01:15:29,000
feel an obligation to do it, 
yeah. 

1135
01:15:29,080 --> 01:15:31,640
I mean, I would certainly, you 
know, and let's say massive 

1136
01:15:31,640 --> 01:15:33,120
capital goes on to be a big 
success. 

1137
01:15:33,120 --> 01:15:35,960
I'd certainly love, you know, 
one of my daughter's to be able 

1138
01:15:35,960 --> 01:15:38,400
to rise up to the and I'd I'd 
probably try and push them in 

1139
01:15:38,400 --> 01:15:40,240
that direction. 
It's probably the exact wrong 

1140
01:15:40,240 --> 01:15:44,240
thing. 
You want them to come to it, the

1141
01:15:44,240 --> 01:15:46,880
interest natural. 
If they don't come to it 

1142
01:15:46,880 --> 01:15:49,960
naturally, then you're trying to
force a square peg in a round 

1143
01:15:49,960 --> 01:15:52,120
hole and snack on work. 
Yeah. 

1144
01:15:53,800 --> 01:15:56,000
Yeah, that's right. 
I think that's right. 

1145
01:15:58,040 --> 01:16:01,720
I think that's, that's probably 
a big piece of it, but that's 

1146
01:16:01,720 --> 01:16:03,240
surrounding yourself with good 
people. 

1147
01:16:04,360 --> 01:16:06,520
I can't, can't beat that. 
Yeah. 

1148
01:16:06,920 --> 01:16:13,920
And being willing to listen. 
They all also started at the 

1149
01:16:13,920 --> 01:16:17,840
bottom, you know, they didn't, 
they didn't get a management 

1150
01:16:17,840 --> 01:16:20,240
position. 
They all, they all started, you 

1151
01:16:20,240 --> 01:16:24,520
know, out in the field and stuff
like that gives you an. 

1152
01:16:24,520 --> 01:16:26,800
Appreciation for what? 
What the people that work for 

1153
01:16:26,800 --> 01:16:28,560
you go through, right? 
Yeah. 

1154
01:16:29,160 --> 01:16:32,520
But also gives you appreciation 
for, you know, how, how the 

1155
01:16:32,520 --> 01:16:39,040
omelet's actually made, right. 
So, you know, but they're good. 

1156
01:16:39,600 --> 01:16:43,480
They're they're great management
team and got big things out of 

1157
01:16:43,480 --> 01:16:45,440
them. 
Hopefully at least at least 

1158
01:16:45,440 --> 01:16:47,320
that's my bet. 
Yeah, well. 

1159
01:16:47,880 --> 01:16:53,480
I mean, I think that's AI don't 
know to your point on the 

1160
01:16:53,480 --> 01:16:58,160
business that an idiot can run. 
I mean, I, I just, I just, I 

1161
01:16:58,480 --> 01:17:02,040
think you need good jockeys. 
I don't and you know, I don't, I

1162
01:17:02,040 --> 01:17:05,400
don't really know how you 
prospectively manage that or, or

1163
01:17:05,400 --> 01:17:08,400
figure that out. 
I recently made an investment. 

1164
01:17:08,400 --> 01:17:10,120
We'll see if it's smart or not, 
right? 

1165
01:17:10,120 --> 01:17:12,560
But it's like at the end of the 
day, I really like these people 

1166
01:17:13,320 --> 01:17:15,520
and like, it's more than like I 
want to hang out with them. 

1167
01:17:15,520 --> 01:17:17,960
Like these people strike me as 
people that are really good at 

1168
01:17:17,960 --> 01:17:22,080
making money. 
So we'll see, right? 

1169
01:17:23,240 --> 01:17:30,000
Well, with all the things that 
can go wrong in business, that 

1170
01:17:30,000 --> 01:17:33,080
seems like the most sensible 
thing to battle, if you will, in

1171
01:17:33,080 --> 01:17:36,280
some regards, right? 
You know, inflation can rise and

1172
01:17:36,280 --> 01:17:38,760
fall, pricing power can come and
go. 

1173
01:17:39,480 --> 01:17:45,320
But someone who's diligent, 
who's, you know, going to spend 

1174
01:17:45,320 --> 01:17:48,400
the time to understand problems,
solve problems, you know that, 

1175
01:17:50,040 --> 01:17:52,800
that state and that's in their 
character, you know that that'll

1176
01:17:52,800 --> 01:17:56,000
stick around, right. 
So you get that a lot of fixed 

1177
01:17:56,000 --> 01:17:57,960
things in, in in the world of 
business. 

1178
01:17:57,960 --> 01:18:01,440
But, but a person's character 
and, and what that means or how 

1179
01:18:01,440 --> 01:18:04,240
they approach their job, that 
doesn't change very much. 

1180
01:18:04,320 --> 01:18:06,200
It'll change, but it doesn't 
change very much. 

1181
01:18:07,360 --> 01:18:08,000
Yeah. 
And I I. 

1182
01:18:08,000 --> 01:18:11,880
Think in the public markets, 
it's nice to hear somebody 

1183
01:18:11,880 --> 01:18:15,200
actually care about shareholders
and be able to figure out if 

1184
01:18:15,200 --> 01:18:20,640
they mean it or not so. 
Yeah, it's very difficult. 

1185
01:18:21,280 --> 01:18:24,520
That's why I have a lot of 
trouble with, you know, say like

1186
01:18:24,520 --> 01:18:26,880
tech companies and and stuff 
like that. 

1187
01:18:26,880 --> 01:18:31,080
I don't, I just don't know. 
It's really hard to tell. 

1188
01:18:31,080 --> 01:18:35,440
Like just what's the CEO of 
Microsoft's name? 

1189
01:18:36,000 --> 01:18:41,200
Nipaella, you know, like he's a 
billionaire now and I don't know

1190
01:18:41,200 --> 01:18:45,520
he he made that all by being the
CEO of Microsoft as he you know,

1191
01:18:45,520 --> 01:18:49,080
but he could liquidate a billion
in Microsoft and freakonomic 

1192
01:18:49,080 --> 01:18:55,240
indifference to the stock so he 
can exit that the easy you know,

1193
01:18:55,240 --> 01:18:58,000
does he care about you know what
what does he care about right? 

1194
01:18:58,000 --> 01:19:00,080
It's it's gonna be hard to 
allies it. 

1195
01:19:01,640 --> 01:19:04,280
Well, there's something 
beautiful about the commodity 

1196
01:19:04,840 --> 01:19:09,400
niche that you've chosen in that
I don't think people are rushing

1197
01:19:09,400 --> 01:19:11,600
to enter the market like they 
are tech. 

1198
01:19:12,200 --> 01:19:16,600
And you know, it's like there's 
no disillusion that you have 

1199
01:19:16,680 --> 01:19:21,320
massive franchise value to 
assign to these projects, right?

1200
01:19:21,320 --> 01:19:24,320
You might have some what is it 
is a basis when you have a 

1201
01:19:24,320 --> 01:19:28,840
transportation advantage. 
Is that what they right basis, 

1202
01:19:28,840 --> 01:19:31,640
right. 
You might have some logistics 

1203
01:19:31,640 --> 01:19:34,560
advantage and some geography or 
something that gives you some 

1204
01:19:34,560 --> 01:19:39,240
outsize returns, but it's not 
like I don't know. 

1205
01:19:39,520 --> 01:19:43,760
I I would think it's fairly, it 
lends itself well to rational 

1206
01:19:43,760 --> 01:19:46,120
analysis that looks at the 
capital cycle. 

1207
01:19:46,760 --> 01:19:50,120
Yeah, I think it does. 
But you raise an interesting 

1208
01:19:50,120 --> 01:19:53,960
sort of point. 
All the industry's idea all have

1209
01:19:53,960 --> 01:19:58,960
huge people in terms of a lack 
of people going into them. 

1210
01:19:59,640 --> 01:20:03,000
So I don't remember. 
I might get the numbers, I might

1211
01:20:03,000 --> 01:20:05,440
get the numbers wrong but 
directionally correct. 

1212
01:20:08,480 --> 01:20:11,640
You know, if we used to graduate
1000 geologists a year in the 

1213
01:20:11,640 --> 01:20:13,440
United, again, these numbers are
wrong. 

1214
01:20:13,440 --> 01:20:15,480
They're not don't nobody quote 
me on you. 

1215
01:20:15,480 --> 01:20:18,480
If we used to graduate 1000 
geologists a year in the United 

1216
01:20:18,480 --> 01:20:20,920
States, pH DS or something, we 
only do 100. 

1217
01:20:21,640 --> 01:20:23,840
You know, it's, it's that type 
of shrinkage. 

1218
01:20:25,040 --> 01:20:29,920
Like if I go to mine sites these
days, it's it's a lot of Gray 

1219
01:20:29,920 --> 01:20:37,400
bearded geologists in their 50s 
and 60s and one or two young 

1220
01:20:37,400 --> 01:20:40,680
kids fresh out of, you know, 
Colorado school mines or 

1221
01:20:40,680 --> 01:20:44,440
something. 
But it's a very like that 

1222
01:20:44,440 --> 01:20:51,120
pipeline is, is incredibly thin.
It's, it's far thinner, in fact,

1223
01:20:51,120 --> 01:20:52,600
than the actual project 
pipeline. 

1224
01:20:54,080 --> 01:20:57,960
It's, you know, and we see that 
in the United States with other 

1225
01:20:57,960 --> 01:21:01,040
things like the, the processing 
of rare earth metals, right? 

1226
01:21:01,040 --> 01:21:03,840
So we used to have in the United
States, there used to be 

1227
01:21:03,840 --> 01:21:10,160
something like in the Fifties, 
60s and 70s or something like 12

1228
01:21:10,160 --> 01:21:13,600
or 15 different places, 
different universities you could

1229
01:21:13,600 --> 01:21:16,760
go to. 
We'd get a PhD in, you know, 

1230
01:21:16,760 --> 01:21:24,080
metallurgy and specialize in 
their understanding rare earth 

1231
01:21:24,080 --> 01:21:27,800
metal processing and stuff, you 
know, sort of stuff related to 

1232
01:21:27,800 --> 01:21:32,040
that. 
Now it's, it's, it's down to 

1233
01:21:32,200 --> 01:21:34,480
there's, there's a program at 
like the University of Virginia,

1234
01:21:34,800 --> 01:21:37,720
all places. 
And that's, that's like it. 

1235
01:21:38,160 --> 01:21:40,880
And so there is no, you know, 
you want to stand up or rare 

1236
01:21:40,880 --> 01:21:44,040
earth processing facility in the
United States, you have got to 

1237
01:21:44,040 --> 01:21:48,640
go overseas and you have got to 
hire people away from someone 

1238
01:21:48,640 --> 01:21:53,800
else because there just aren't, 
you know, people with with 

1239
01:21:53,800 --> 01:21:56,680
knowledge and experience. 
You, you probably can hire some 

1240
01:21:56,680 --> 01:22:00,040
people with some theoretical, 
you know, textbook experience, 

1241
01:22:01,240 --> 01:22:05,520
but what practical experience, 
real world experience, you know,

1242
01:22:05,560 --> 01:22:07,400
you got to hire them away from 
somebody else. 

1243
01:22:07,400 --> 01:22:09,800
And that there really aren't 
that many firms to hire them 

1244
01:22:09,800 --> 01:22:12,520
away from. 
And you know, the expertise is 

1245
01:22:12,520 --> 01:22:15,120
in China. 
And those guys definitely are. 

1246
01:22:15,600 --> 01:22:19,360
They're not even allowed to 
leave the country if you work in

1247
01:22:19,360 --> 01:22:21,240
rare earth metal processing in 
China. 

1248
01:22:22,120 --> 01:22:23,640
And I don't know where the level
is. 

1249
01:22:23,640 --> 01:22:25,960
I'm sure they're different, you 
know, depending on whether. 

1250
01:22:26,080 --> 01:22:28,240
Yeah, once. 
You're sufficiently important, 

1251
01:22:28,320 --> 01:22:31,040
yeah, but once you're. 
You can't, you know that your 

1252
01:22:31,040 --> 01:22:33,720
passport is, is taken, you 
cannot leave the country. 

1253
01:22:34,560 --> 01:22:37,240
But that sucks. 
Year or two years ago or 

1254
01:22:37,240 --> 01:22:42,080
something, they consider it a, 
you know, a national strategic, 

1255
01:22:42,560 --> 01:22:46,840
you know, the process knowledge,
which is really what we've lost.

1256
01:22:46,840 --> 01:22:50,000
We've lost a lot of process 
knowledge here in the United 

1257
01:22:50,000 --> 01:22:52,080
States across all kinds of 
different fields. 

1258
01:22:53,840 --> 01:22:56,320
One of the reasons why I say 
building all the infrastructure 

1259
01:22:56,320 --> 01:22:58,240
always takes forever in the 
United States, because the 

1260
01:22:58,240 --> 01:23:02,560
number of people we have with 
experience in megaprojects, it's

1261
01:23:02,560 --> 01:23:06,400
not very much. 
And, you know, these things 

1262
01:23:06,400 --> 01:23:08,280
require you to do them 
repeatedly. 

1263
01:23:13,360 --> 01:23:16,360
Stuff. 
Yeah, it's like what it's. 

1264
01:23:16,360 --> 01:23:18,320
Kind of like what's going on 
with trades with a higher 

1265
01:23:18,320 --> 01:23:21,960
barrier to entry. 
What do you mean? 

1266
01:23:22,680 --> 01:23:24,360
Well, I. 
Just I mean, like, I don't know 

1267
01:23:24,360 --> 01:23:27,800
man, when I when I built the 
house that we built, I think 

1268
01:23:27,800 --> 01:23:30,320
that there were three guys in 
town that could actually do. 

1269
01:23:30,320 --> 01:23:33,920
Now it's not like some huge 
city, so you know, bear with me,

1270
01:23:33,920 --> 01:23:36,040
but that can actually do the 
tile. 

1271
01:23:36,800 --> 01:23:39,400
Yeah, yeah, I got you trades. 
Yeah, you said trades and I I 

1272
01:23:39,400 --> 01:23:42,080
wasn't sure what you Yeah, so 
then so. 

1273
01:23:42,200 --> 01:23:44,920
So then I'm like bidding and and
not only was I bidding, but 

1274
01:23:44,920 --> 01:23:47,080
everybody else is building when 
I'm building and the guys are 

1275
01:23:47,080 --> 01:23:48,680
just like, you don't want to 
pay, I don't care. 

1276
01:23:48,680 --> 01:23:50,520
Like I'm busy. 
Yeah. 

1277
01:23:51,080 --> 01:23:54,400
Now today it might be a 
different story, right? 

1278
01:23:54,640 --> 01:23:56,760
But I don't think so. 
Not be as different. 

1279
01:23:56,760 --> 01:24:01,080
As as most people think it is. 
I yeah, I I think that's spot 

1280
01:24:01,080 --> 01:24:06,720
on. 
We in Charlotte, I, we've needed

1281
01:24:06,720 --> 01:24:11,120
an electrician to do some things
for us around the House of small

1282
01:24:11,120 --> 01:24:12,280
things. 
They're not big. 

1283
01:24:12,520 --> 01:24:16,800
I can't do them. 
We had a couple, we had one 

1284
01:24:16,800 --> 01:24:21,360
electrician who was willing to 
come in and take a look and then

1285
01:24:21,360 --> 01:24:23,200
he said, no thanks, I'm not 
interested in doing that. 

1286
01:24:23,200 --> 01:24:27,880
That's a waste of my time. 
And so we've had these projects 

1287
01:24:27,880 --> 01:24:30,760
that just sit there undone. 
And because you can't find an 

1288
01:24:30,760 --> 01:24:34,360
electrician a lot to do. 
So I, I, no, I think that's spot

1289
01:24:34,360 --> 01:24:35,560
on. 
And we're going to come to a 

1290
01:24:35,560 --> 01:24:39,680
point where, you know, I don't 
know what it is, but I don't 

1291
01:24:42,120 --> 01:24:45,920
know, you can't build a some 
sort of supply chain and some, 

1292
01:24:45,920 --> 01:24:49,160
some sort of manufacturing 
facility, you know, because of 

1293
01:24:49,160 --> 01:24:51,120
the people just aren't there. 
Well. 

1294
01:24:51,120 --> 01:24:54,000
If I recall correctly, it's some
of the pitch for analog semis 

1295
01:24:54,000 --> 01:24:56,480
too. 
Is that like the the people that

1296
01:24:56,480 --> 01:24:59,960
run those companies are just 
older and they're they're just, 

1297
01:25:00,200 --> 01:25:01,920
it's not what people are 
entering. 

1298
01:25:02,440 --> 01:25:03,640
Yes, yeah. 
So. 

1299
01:25:04,360 --> 01:25:06,600
Like the memory chips and things
of that nature. 

1300
01:25:07,360 --> 01:25:09,680
It still. 
Requires a ton of expertise to 

1301
01:25:09,680 --> 01:25:12,160
build that, especially at scale.
That's the thing that always 

1302
01:25:12,160 --> 01:25:15,400
blows my mind is, is that, you 
know, a lot of things can be 

1303
01:25:15,400 --> 01:25:18,880
done one off in a lab without a 
lot of experience, but the 

1304
01:25:18,880 --> 01:25:24,440
scaling of things creates a 
demand for experience that can't

1305
01:25:24,440 --> 01:25:27,680
be superseded with theoretical 
knowledge. 

1306
01:25:28,720 --> 01:25:30,400
Yeah, well, like the. 
Mind that you're talking about, 

1307
01:25:30,400 --> 01:25:33,680
I mean, if, if people start to 
lose that expertise, you're 

1308
01:25:33,680 --> 01:25:36,520
talking about billions of 
dollars of mistakes, yeah. 

1309
01:25:36,920 --> 01:25:39,840
Yeah, yeah, with no. 
Recovery value, right? 

1310
01:25:40,040 --> 01:25:42,640
Like it's not like you got some 
asset under you or, you know, 

1311
01:25:42,640 --> 01:25:46,280
covering your loan value or 
whatever the whatever it is, 

1312
01:25:46,280 --> 01:25:49,960
it's, it's, it's. 
A wild It's a wild business. 

1313
01:25:50,320 --> 01:25:53,200
Yeah, that's cool. 
Interesting. 

1314
01:25:53,480 --> 01:25:56,480
Anything else you wanted to talk
about while you're here that's. 

1315
01:25:57,200 --> 01:25:59,800
Good. 
Well, Congrats on. 

1316
01:25:59,800 --> 01:26:03,800
You know, a, a Goodyear I, I, I 
appreciate that you came on when

1317
01:26:03,800 --> 01:26:07,440
the years were not as good, so 
it's nice to have you as a 

1318
01:26:07,440 --> 01:26:11,120
regular guest. 
I'm, I, I always enjoy it. 

1319
01:26:11,120 --> 01:26:13,880
We just sort of shoot shit and 
it's casual. 

1320
01:26:13,880 --> 01:26:15,280
It's, it's, that's the goal, 
man. 

1321
01:26:15,600 --> 01:26:17,600
Yeah, it's good. 
It's good. 

1322
01:26:17,840 --> 01:26:21,560
Other times I feel like I got a,
you know, I got a sort of, you 

1323
01:26:21,560 --> 01:26:24,000
know, be on my toes pitching 
something or or something like 

1324
01:26:24,000 --> 01:26:27,840
that with other shows you and 
like that with the money of 

1325
01:26:27,840 --> 01:26:29,800
mines guys, have you ever heard 
that podcast? 

1326
01:26:29,800 --> 01:26:32,480
No, I haven't. 
That is a great podcast. 

1327
01:26:32,640 --> 01:26:34,400
A couple of guys out of 
Australia. 

1328
01:26:34,400 --> 01:26:37,200
So they're, I find it funny 
because every once in a while 

1329
01:26:37,200 --> 01:26:40,200
they trot out some sort of 
Australianism and I'm like, what

1330
01:26:40,200 --> 01:26:42,920
the hell does that mean? 
What is it the? 

1331
01:26:42,920 --> 01:26:46,120
Money of mines are just money 
mines, money mines. 

1332
01:26:46,800 --> 01:26:50,440
Yeah, they I go on their podcast
or like once a year and just 

1333
01:26:50,440 --> 01:26:52,160
sort of shoot the Shape with 
them and it's bomb. 

1334
01:26:52,760 --> 01:26:55,200
So that's a home. 
And natural resource investing 

1335
01:26:55,200 --> 01:26:56,800
right there. 
Yeah, very. 

1336
01:26:56,800 --> 01:26:59,480
Much so they understand it over 
there so. 

1337
01:27:00,240 --> 01:27:02,680
That's cool. 
All right, well, thank you very 

1338
01:27:02,680 --> 01:27:05,000
much for coming on, man. 
And I, I wish you all the best. 

1339
01:27:05,000 --> 01:27:07,720
May you find an electrician that
doesn't totally, you know, 

1340
01:27:07,720 --> 01:27:09,920
destroy you on the cost. 
Yeah. 

1341
01:27:09,920 --> 01:27:13,560
Yeah, we'll we'll say, we'll say
and and you know, best of luck 

1342
01:27:13,560 --> 01:27:15,640
on on the coming up a a golf 
trout. 

1343
01:27:16,120 --> 01:27:17,360
Yeah, we'll. 
See, we'll see. 

1344
01:27:18,200 --> 01:27:20,040
So far so good. 
The game is crisp. 

1345
01:27:20,040 --> 01:27:21,800
I got to keep it there. 
Good. 

1346
01:27:21,960 --> 01:27:24,040
So. 
I think competing in amateur 

1347
01:27:24,040 --> 01:27:27,520
events is step one. 
Oh, wow, OK, well, I'll, I look 

1348
01:27:27,520 --> 01:27:29,080
forward to hearing about what 
that's like. 

1349
01:27:29,560 --> 01:27:32,120
It'll. 
Probably be like, I shot 82 and 

1350
01:27:32,120 --> 01:27:34,160
I'm all pissed off. 
But that's fine. 

1351
01:27:34,240 --> 01:27:37,560
I, you know, I like it, man. 
It's something that challenges 

1352
01:27:37,560 --> 01:27:41,560
me so and it's never ending. 
It's 50 strokes better than I 

1353
01:27:41,560 --> 01:27:45,320
could do, yeah, but I. 
I just, I've dedicated a lot of 

1354
01:27:45,320 --> 01:27:47,520
time. 
My real goal, my real goal, I 

1355
01:27:47,520 --> 01:27:50,280
feel like my young self was not 
a scratch. 

1356
01:27:50,280 --> 01:27:53,040
I was like A1 or A2. 
And I want to beat that kid 

1357
01:27:53,160 --> 01:27:55,960
because I feel like that kid 
would have called me an old man 

1358
01:27:56,120 --> 01:27:58,880
and my old man self wants to 
kick my young self's ass. 

1359
01:27:58,880 --> 01:28:01,640
So that's the current 
motivation, yeah. 

1360
01:28:01,720 --> 01:28:03,480
OK, understood. 
Understood. 

1361
01:28:03,480 --> 01:28:05,680
Probably some. 
Some I need to do some work on 

1362
01:28:05,680 --> 01:28:07,040
that. 
I'll call up the shrink. 

1363
01:28:09,480 --> 01:28:11,400
All right, man. 
Well, have a good one, Yeah. 

1364
01:28:11,400 --> 01:28:13,720
You too. 
We'll talk soon, talk to you 

1365
01:28:13,720 --> 01:28:14,880
later. 
All right, bye.