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Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to
the Business Bureau. 

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I'm your host, Bill Brewster. 
This episode features Peter 

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Mantis. 
Peter is the Co founder and Co 

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general partner at Logos LP. 
Peter stopped by in October of 

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2023. 
I believe. 

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We talked about a number of 
things, some of which have 

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worked out pretty well. 
The most notable is Clear Point.

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The reason Clear Point has 
worked is one of their partner 

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programs is a company called the
Uni Cure. 

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Well one of the partners is a 
company called the Uni Cure. 

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One of the programs that Uni 
Cure has was called the AMT 130,

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AMT 130 release data. 
I guess now roughly 10 days ago,

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maybe they, I don't know. 
Whatever, look at the chart. 

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When it goes straight up, that's
when the data came out. 

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Anyway, They basically, for lack
of a better term through my 

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lens, have figured out how to 
substantially slow the 

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progression of Huntington's 
disease, which is an absolutely 

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horrible disease. 
And if you catch it early 

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enough, one could argue that 
maybe we've cured Huntington's 

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if the data holds and. 
It's a really. 

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Exciting time for the 
Huntington's community. 

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Huntington's is one of the five 
horsemen that that Peter sort 

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of, he calls it one of the five 
horsemen. 

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It's one of the five big 
diseases that is just absolutely

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terrible that we as a society 
should solve, right? 

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When you think about the way the
world should be, these people 

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should not have to suffer 
through this disease. 

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And we're working on others. 
There was just some pretty 

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positive readouts, obviously 
very early, but from Regeneron 

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with with some genetic deafness 
and they appear to be able to do

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something that I think they said
that people can now hear like 1 

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and 2 syllables and some have 
actually like gotten a 

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reasonable level of hearing 
back. 

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Look that study up for yourself.
I'm going off memory here. 

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But anyway, it's an exciting 
time to be live. 

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Clear Point was at 4 bucks or 
well, no, not 4475 or whatever. 

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When we when Peter and I first 
recorded the first podcast, it 

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recently hit 30. 
We're in a group chat together. 

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The group chat has gone to 
optimistic to say the least. 

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And they said, hey, we really 
want you to do a follow up. 

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And I really like them and I 
really like Peter. 

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So here's the follow up. 
As always, none of this is 

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financial advice. 
Everything in this program is 

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for entertainment purposes only.
Do your own due diligence and 

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consult your financial advisor 
before making an investment 

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decision. 
Also as always, this episode is 

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sponsored by Fiscal AI. 
Fiscal AI is the complete modern

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day terminal for global 
equities. 

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Braden and his team are awesome.
I have enjoyed working with them

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very much. 
I have enjoyed people pinging me

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and being like, hey Brewster, 
that's dope that you recommended

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fiscal AI 'cause now I use it 
and that's it's like actually a 

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value add in my life. 
I've enjoyed getting some emails

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that are like, hey Bill, you 
earned a Commission for 

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recommending these people. 
Which is dope too. 

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Money coming in is always better
than not. 

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So I appreciate that the people 
that I have asked to support 

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fiscal AI are doing so. 
I appreciate that they're happy 

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they're doing so. 
It reminds me a little when I 

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sold Cutco knives, they were 
like the best knives ever. 

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I still have them. 
I'd still sell them to you if 

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you need them. 
Hit me up. 

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I still can do that. 
But you know, it's like, it's 

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nice to be behind products that 
you're proud of telling people. 

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Hey, check it out. 
So going way back to. 

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When Braden was stratosphere. 
Alrighty folks. 

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We are joined again by Peter 
Mantis. 

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This this has been, we've wanted
to do a follow up, but some of 

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some of this podcast is at the 
behest of the Clear Point Group.

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Do you think that that's a fair 
statement? 

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Yeah, probably. 
They said we need a pod. 

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So I will say at the risk of we 
called the well we called that 

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is fake news, but you thought 
that it was probably not a 

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frothy time in biotech and 
likely the bottom. 

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Since then, returns have been OK
Hopefully we're not marking the 

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top with this one. 
It's funny you say that. 

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I I went back and looked at our 
first pod, which is October 

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10th, 2023, and that was the low
and clear point. 

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It's $4.70. 
Pretty wild. 

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Two years later. 
Touched. 30 I really hope this 

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is not the top. 
Yeah, well, it does make you 

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wonder, but it's the the group 
has gone from. 

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I would not, I would not say 
despair because people were 

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always sort of excited at the 
prospects. 

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But we've gone from when will 
the stock go down to can't trim 

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because we might miss the 
upside, which is always a fun 

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place to be. 
It's an interesting group of 

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investors where it's far the 
temperament and the the ability 

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to take a stomach punch is 
pretty high in that and other 

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versus other chats that I'm a 
part of. 

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So it's it's really wild to see,
you know, and you know, this 

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stock, this this stock has had 
days where you are down every 

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single day for months and months
and months and months and 

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months. 
And it's to have that dark 

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comedy and self defecating 
humor. 

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Still, it's really it's a really
fun chat, so. 

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Yeah. 
But you know, what's nice about 

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it is it's a it's a bunch of 
people that actually own the the

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business and you know, everybody
has different approaches, but 

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there we've certainly gone from 
keeping each other company in 

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the dark days to celebrating a 
win a little bit. 

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Yeah, yeah, exactly. 
And it's the kind of equity 

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where for 360 days of the year, 
you're getting your nuts kicked 

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in, but there's five days where 
the whole return is there, so. 

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For people that don't know you 
want to, you want to give some 

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background on on what sort of 
if, if they were to pull up a 

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clear point chart, they would 
see it's it's gone pretty 

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parabolic. 
You want to set the stage as to 

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why. 
Yeah. 

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So for those who don't know what
Clear Point does, it's a it's in

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the sort of tool space of life 
science. 

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So they, they have a bunch of 
businesses, I guess they have a 

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neurosurgery business, which is 
for things like Parkinson's 

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disease, if you need a deep 
brain simulator implant or if 

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you have, let's say epilepsy, 
meaning you need a surgery or, 

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you know, some kind of other 
procedure that might need real 

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time MRI guided solution. 
There's their drug delivery 

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business, which is effectively a
candy. 

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I think of it like a really 
large plastic straw or syringe 

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that goes to your head using 
drug trials. 

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They also have a, the clinical, 
you know, CRO kind of business 

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where you call them up and say, 
Hey, help me discover abrasion, 

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the amygdala. 
Is there any cell and gene 

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therapies there? 
Can you help me discover 

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something there? 
Can you help me discover 

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something in cell and gene 
therapy for epilepsy? 

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And, and recently they also 
launched a laser product for 

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their epilepsy business, the 
surgery. 

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So think of it as all all things
necessary or focused in their 

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own, but it's very heavily tied 
to the bio processing factor 

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because it's their solutions. 
Their cannula solutions are 

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effectively a tax on drug on 
drugs drug delivery. 

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So. 
You know, it's the, it's the 

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reusable equipment that is able 
to that, that facilitates the 

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delivery of a gene therapy, 
right? 

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Yeah, it's. 
A razor, razor blade kind of 

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business. 
So you install the capital 

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equipment and then as procedures
go up, because people are taking

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more cell and gene therapies, 
you, you have these single use 

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cannulas which you have to 
reorder all the time to fulfill 

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demand and demand we first. 
Talked about this, it was kind 

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of AI, don't want to say a 
science project because the 

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company used to be MRI 
solutions. 

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They went public in the 90s, 
right? 

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Oh yeah, it was a while ago. 
Yeah, I think it was like 9798, 

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I could be wrong on that, but 
it, it had had a ton of R&D put 

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into it as an entity. 
But the the fundamental use case

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was still sort of out there, 
right. 

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It was a bunch of trials and we 
were hoping that one of the 

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trials would go well and a a 
larger trial would go well and 

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sort of prove the business 
model. 

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Is that a fair assessment of 
when we recorded? 

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When we recorded they were, it 
was, I would say realer business

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out of real is a wrong word, but
it was, it was a more real 

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business than let's say 2017. 
Yeah, you know, they had 50-60, 

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maybe 50 partners at the time. 
The customers, there was a real 

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neurosurgery business between 
real revenue doing real 

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procedures in real hospitals and
at major hospitals. 

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So it wasn't a zero revenue 
quote UN quote Chitco. 

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It was a real business. 
It just didn't have that 

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multiple that you would 
attribute to a bioprocessing 

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stock because the drugs were 
either in the middle of a 

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clinical trial and there hasn't 
been anything approved. 

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So since we've spoken, there's 
been wow, soon to be 3 drugs 

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approved. 
So it's starting to ramp up 

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pretty rapidly and on top of 
that procedures have ramped up 

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because they've expanded 
equipment sale. 

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So that's sort of like what has 
happened in the last two years 

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and has led to the stock re 
rating specifically uni cure 

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that's been the big catalyst 
because that's going to be huge 

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game changing procedure demand 
inducing events for the company.

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You also have to add to the fact
that this stock is incredibly 

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tightly held. 
It is very cult life, you know, 

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fanatical. 
And you will have to RIP shares 

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from people's cold, bare hands. 
And when you only have 28 

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million shares outstanding, it 
gets pretty violent if you want 

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to, if, you know, if a fund 
wants to buy shares. 

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Yeah. 
So that's another reason for the

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the violence. 
So if you if you haven't seen 

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the headlines, Uniquer released 
the data on a phase three study 

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that showed essentially a the 
ability to substantially slow 

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Huntington's, the progression of
Huntington's disease. 

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And they are, they are as of now
not able to reverse the bad 

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impacts of Huntington's, but it 
appears as though there's a a 

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high probability that they can 
slow the development 

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substantially using Clearpoint's
technology, right? 

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Yeah, that's a phase two, phase 
two study. 

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Yeah, this is exactly right. 
Like there's no cure. 

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Like as despite the name there, 
it's not a cure for the disease.

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That's a maybe, maybe, maybe we 
get that one day, but that's in 

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the two hard pile for now. 
This is can we slow it down and 

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add extra years of quality 
living to patients who might 

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have it. 
And the second piece to this is 

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the symptoms of Huntington's are
very similar to Parkinson's. 

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And so there might be people who
might not be afraid to get 

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tested for Huntington's now that
they know there is a some kind 

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of solution out there to slow it
down. 

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Yeah, yeah, you get like a Tam 
expansion, right? 

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Because on one hand, you're a 
little bit worried about even 

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finding out if you have 
Huntington's, given the fact 

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that it's more or less a 
terrible way to die, right? 

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So now if people think that 
there's a way to slow the the 

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progression, you may encourage 
people to get tested because if 

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they get this therapy, hopefully
the data that has been released 

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is accurate and reflective of 
reality and they should be able 

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to live a fairly normal life, 
hopefully. 

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Yeah, it's devastating in a 
mental capacity. 

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The group Hunting's patients 
have a 12 times higher rate of 

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suicide, so that's a big way of 
why people die is they kill 

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themselves. 
So it's absolutely devastating 

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and it is a large ish patient 
population. 

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It's got a vocal lobby group. 
A lot of money's been spent 

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trying to solve this problem. 
So it's a good day for that 

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population and for American 
science. 

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I would say even though it was 
created by Dutch company, it's a

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it's a good day for science. 
I saw, I think I told you this, 

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somebody was commenting in the 
when the when the news came out,

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she said, I hope that it doesn't
have side effects like the COVID

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jab to which I was like, do you 
have any clue what you're 

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talking about with Huntington's?
I think we can deal with some 

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side effects here. 
Yeah, by the big side effects 

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related, you know, that's 
another piece to this is it's 

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just really safe. 
There haven't been that many at 

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all. 
Adverse events. 

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It's very localized, right? 
It's a very you're you're 

226
00:15:04,080 --> 00:15:08,920
bypassing a large part of the 
body to deliver this into a very

227
00:15:08,920 --> 00:15:12,120
particular area of the brain. 
And that large part of the body 

228
00:15:12,120 --> 00:15:14,120
is the liver, right? 
Yeah, Yeah. 

229
00:15:14,120 --> 00:15:16,040
The liver, kidneys, pancreas, 
heart. 

230
00:15:16,040 --> 00:15:18,680
So you're not, you're not 
toxifying the body. 

231
00:15:19,680 --> 00:15:24,240
So it's very difficult to have 
side effects from the drug from 

232
00:15:24,240 --> 00:15:27,160
that perspective. 
The bigger question is, OK, 

233
00:15:27,160 --> 00:15:30,680
let's say 10 years down the 
line, how will these vectors 

234
00:15:30,800 --> 00:15:35,200
transform being in the brain, 
right? 

235
00:15:35,200 --> 00:15:38,000
Like is there some kind of 
degradation or a call 

236
00:15:38,000 --> 00:15:41,400
depreciation that happens when 
it's staying in the brain? 

237
00:15:42,920 --> 00:15:45,200
That's that we I just don't know
the answer to that. 

238
00:15:45,520 --> 00:15:49,880
But from a side effect 
perspective, from the immediate 

239
00:15:50,240 --> 00:15:53,960
level, there isn't much. 
I mean, there might be some 

240
00:15:53,960 --> 00:15:58,320
inflammation due to the surgery,
you know, but it's surgery is 

241
00:15:58,320 --> 00:16:00,120
minimally invasive. 
It's not like you crack an open 

242
00:16:00,120 --> 00:16:03,080
someone's skull. 
It's kind of like a glorified 

243
00:16:03,160 --> 00:16:07,240
syringe. 
So, you know, there might be 

244
00:16:07,240 --> 00:16:11,160
some pain from the surgery, but 
it's it's fairly safe. 

245
00:16:11,520 --> 00:16:13,720
Yeah, you got to drill some of 
the skull out, don't you? 

246
00:16:15,160 --> 00:16:19,680
You do, but it's very minimal. 
Like it's not open brain 

247
00:16:19,880 --> 00:16:24,760
surgery. 
What would I mean the ten years 

248
00:16:24,760 --> 00:16:30,560
down the road, Like what, what 
what could really derail uni 

249
00:16:30,560 --> 00:16:34,400
cure here and not I don't mean 
the stock, but I mean like what 

250
00:16:34,400 --> 00:16:38,440
could derail this study? 
I know before the results came 

251
00:16:38,440 --> 00:16:41,920
out, there was sort of some 
questions around whether or not 

252
00:16:41,920 --> 00:16:43,880
the science was going to be 
sound. 

253
00:16:45,080 --> 00:16:48,680
What are we looking at it? 
Let's just say from humanity 

254
00:16:48,680 --> 00:16:50,240
standpoint, we want to be 
hopeful. 

255
00:16:50,240 --> 00:16:55,200
What could go wrong here? 
I mean, maybe you find out seven

256
00:16:55,200 --> 00:16:59,880
years from the first injection 
that there is some kind of 

257
00:17:00,200 --> 00:17:04,680
adverse event from the gene 
therapy that, you know, it's 

258
00:17:04,680 --> 00:17:11,160
creating some serious illnesses 
and maybe patient dies that they

259
00:17:11,160 --> 00:17:14,560
wouldn't have from the 
Huntington's and that might 

260
00:17:14,560 --> 00:17:20,280
cause like a halt in production 
or, you know, hold on the drug. 

261
00:17:23,839 --> 00:17:27,240
Yeah, that's the thing with gene
therapy is you don't really know

262
00:17:27,240 --> 00:17:32,960
exactly what the what what the 
effects are long term you. 

263
00:17:33,040 --> 00:17:37,960
Feel like if you said to me you 
have a 35 year old child, seven 

264
00:17:37,960 --> 00:17:40,600
years, 10 years down the road 
you might have some adverse 

265
00:17:40,600 --> 00:17:43,200
effects from this. 
But it looks like 3 years out 

266
00:17:43,640 --> 00:17:47,120
it's going to be really the the 
results will substantially slow 

267
00:17:47,120 --> 00:17:50,960
the Huntington's progression. 
I would I would sign up. 

268
00:17:52,760 --> 00:17:54,480
Oh, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. 
Obviously. 

269
00:17:54,720 --> 00:17:59,160
Like that's, that's yeah. 
That's not a question. 

270
00:18:02,680 --> 00:18:06,040
So, all right, so we we've 
gotten some of of the positive 

271
00:18:06,040 --> 00:18:11,720
news with uniqure and then right
around the same time Pfizer and 

272
00:18:11,720 --> 00:18:16,080
Trump come together and they 
have a a press conference and it

273
00:18:16,080 --> 00:18:20,520
seems like the bioprocessing 
tool segments explodes higher. 

274
00:18:21,200 --> 00:18:24,880
Is that a fair commentary or am 
I being hyperbolic? 

275
00:18:26,200 --> 00:18:29,320
Yeah, I think some of that was 
that was part of the reason. 

276
00:18:29,680 --> 00:18:32,880
I think you also had a bit of 
short covering as well. 

277
00:18:32,880 --> 00:18:35,560
Like a lot of these moves 
lately, not even clairvoyant 

278
00:18:35,560 --> 00:18:39,640
just across the spectrum have 
been a bit squeezy, so to speak.

279
00:18:40,560 --> 00:18:45,960
And I think people got a little 
greedy on the short side and 

280
00:18:45,960 --> 00:18:48,560
maybe complacent on the short 
side because it is a, you know, 

281
00:18:48,560 --> 00:18:51,920
even a five year bear market. 
It's probably the longest, 

282
00:18:51,920 --> 00:18:56,240
deepest, most painful biotech 
life science fair market. 

283
00:18:56,240 --> 00:19:00,480
I've I've definitely seen. 
But you know, I wasn't alive in 

284
00:19:00,480 --> 00:19:02,120
the 80s. 
I mean, I was alive in the 80s. 

285
00:19:02,120 --> 00:19:05,720
I was born in 87. 
But you know, it's, it's very, 

286
00:19:05,720 --> 00:19:08,680
very deep. 
This one, it's definitely the, 

287
00:19:08,720 --> 00:19:10,760
the most significant of the 
2000s. 

288
00:19:11,640 --> 00:19:16,280
So, you know, there might there 
might have been some complacency

289
00:19:16,280 --> 00:19:21,440
and some squeeziness to it. 
And if you have the other piece 

290
00:19:21,440 --> 00:19:23,480
to this that I think people 
forget is a lot of these 

291
00:19:23,480 --> 00:19:27,120
companies found religion, they 
cut costs a lot. 

292
00:19:27,280 --> 00:19:31,360
They didn't dilute that much. 
They kept their share flows 

293
00:19:31,360 --> 00:19:35,920
pretty stable, but the short 
interest still got up to 20 

294
00:19:35,920 --> 00:19:39,440
percent, 15% on depressed 
valuations. 

295
00:19:40,240 --> 00:19:46,440
And that's on that's besides the
fact there's real science going 

296
00:19:46,480 --> 00:19:48,880
on. 
Like you went from science 

297
00:19:48,880 --> 00:19:53,760
projects in 2021 to things that 
are not science projects, like 

298
00:19:53,760 --> 00:19:57,600
here's not a science project. 
And here's just one of other 

299
00:19:57,600 --> 00:19:58,680
things that have happened as 
well. 

300
00:19:59,720 --> 00:20:02,880
But I think there was just been 
a lot of, in my opinion, there 

301
00:20:02,880 --> 00:20:05,720
seemed a lot of complacency in 
the space. 

302
00:20:05,800 --> 00:20:12,200
And if you have that long of a 
bear market with low ish share 

303
00:20:12,200 --> 00:20:15,160
floats. 
That are producing a real 

304
00:20:15,480 --> 00:20:19,120
catalyst, real science, real, 
you know, markets, real 

305
00:20:19,120 --> 00:20:24,920
revenues, you, you get the big 
moves up and then sustained 

306
00:20:24,920 --> 00:20:26,560
moves for a longer period of 
time. 

307
00:20:27,120 --> 00:20:32,120
Yeah. 
So one of the you write the sub 

308
00:20:32,120 --> 00:20:34,520
stack back of the napkin BIOS, 
right. 

309
00:20:34,520 --> 00:20:38,920
And if I look at some of the 
things that you've written up, 

310
00:20:40,400 --> 00:20:45,160
they they have done very nicely 
since you've written them up on 

311
00:20:45,160 --> 00:20:51,680
average. 
Why, why was why either was the 

312
00:20:51,680 --> 00:20:54,040
market, I mean you just 
articulated why the market may 

313
00:20:54,040 --> 00:20:56,920
have been that offsides. 
But when you see moves of 30 to 

314
00:20:57,320 --> 00:21:03,920
200% in, in most normal stocks, 
that kind of a move is like, OK,

315
00:21:03,920 --> 00:21:08,400
the move is over, move on. 
Are are we coming out of a 

316
00:21:08,400 --> 00:21:14,080
period where these business 
evaluations were so depressed 

317
00:21:14,320 --> 00:21:20,240
that even moves like that are 
not indicative of this move is 

318
00:21:20,240 --> 00:21:23,600
over, but rather maybe the start
of a move? 

319
00:21:25,080 --> 00:21:27,720
Yeah, exactly. 
So the, the, the key difference 

320
00:21:27,720 --> 00:21:31,960
in biotech versus any other 
sector is it's often more 

321
00:21:31,960 --> 00:21:37,920
lucrative to buy after stocks 
rally 300% because, or I might 

322
00:21:37,920 --> 00:21:41,920
say lucrative, I mean more, 
better risk adjusted because you

323
00:21:41,920 --> 00:21:46,880
have de risked that equity a 
substantial amount. 

324
00:21:47,760 --> 00:21:53,280
And you have, you can project 
with more confidence the 

325
00:21:53,280 --> 00:21:56,000
revenues that are going to have 
like the better going to come 

326
00:21:56,920 --> 00:22:01,320
for that drug or therapy as word
gets spread out, right. 

327
00:22:01,320 --> 00:22:04,760
So uni cure is an example. 
I think Martin Shkreli said this

328
00:22:04,760 --> 00:22:09,000
is a 510X from here and I was at
$35 a share. 

329
00:22:09,840 --> 00:22:13,520
So you're thinking $350.00 a 
share give or take, right? 

330
00:22:13,760 --> 00:22:15,800
You could see this at 15 billion
market cap. 

331
00:22:15,920 --> 00:22:18,640
Or 100, right? 
But either way, higher than 50. 

332
00:22:19,240 --> 00:22:22,520
Higher than 50, right. 
So and the reason for that is 

333
00:22:23,200 --> 00:22:27,840
you had unbelievable data, like 
I did not have that data in my 

334
00:22:27,840 --> 00:22:34,400
models. 
And you also have very large ish

335
00:22:34,400 --> 00:22:36,840
patient population at a very 
high price. 

336
00:22:36,840 --> 00:22:42,320
It's going to be a 3,000,000 
plus dollar drug on the backs of

337
00:22:43,200 --> 00:22:46,960
a fairly quick procedure a 
couple hours when you're out. 

338
00:22:47,320 --> 00:22:50,000
It's not like has GEVI where 
you're in the hospital for a few

339
00:22:50,000 --> 00:22:53,400
days or a week. 
It's really intense. 

340
00:22:54,600 --> 00:22:59,800
This is kind of a good glorified
injection, right? 

341
00:23:01,200 --> 00:23:06,680
And then, you know, you, you 
couple all that with no, it 

342
00:23:06,680 --> 00:23:08,840
wasn't didn't have that big of a
share count. 

343
00:23:09,880 --> 00:23:13,760
So you put that all together. 
Oh, and by the way, this was 

344
00:23:13,760 --> 00:23:16,680
trading below cash like you 
could have bought Unicure a year

345
00:23:16,680 --> 00:23:17,520
ago. 
Below cash. 

346
00:23:17,720 --> 00:23:24,360
Yes, shout out to Li Shrub. 
So it just did. 

347
00:23:24,520 --> 00:23:28,000
This is where the the violence 
really starts to to go because 

348
00:23:28,760 --> 00:23:32,760
the key with biotech is these 
moves get violent on the 

349
00:23:32,760 --> 00:23:37,280
combination of income state 
reflection and share float 

350
00:23:39,000 --> 00:23:43,080
constraint supply. 
And so often times it's better 

351
00:23:43,080 --> 00:23:46,880
to buy when they're post post 
the move. 

352
00:23:47,320 --> 00:23:50,760
There's sometimes where a 
biotech has a very high 

353
00:23:50,760 --> 00:23:52,680
probability of the therapy being
approved. 

354
00:23:52,680 --> 00:23:57,760
It's phase 3, so it acts more 
like a compounder stock, so to 

355
00:23:57,760 --> 00:24:00,360
speak. 
There's some biotechs out there 

356
00:24:00,360 --> 00:24:03,080
that are more compoundary, I 
would say less binary. 

357
00:24:04,560 --> 00:24:06,800
And so those also got to 
depressed levels. 

358
00:24:06,800 --> 00:24:12,480
That was sort of why I started 
the blog was it was around May, 

359
00:24:12,480 --> 00:24:16,560
April, May. 
I just noticed just so many 

360
00:24:16,600 --> 00:24:19,440
biotech stocks getting 
absolutely hammered for no 

361
00:24:19,440 --> 00:24:20,680
reason. 
They were still at the same 

362
00:24:20,680 --> 00:24:23,560
levels of like 2324. 
I'm like, this is absolutely 

363
00:24:23,560 --> 00:24:27,560
ridiculous. 
There's so much free money being

364
00:24:27,560 --> 00:24:31,040
given today at the market and 
like the the bear market, the 

365
00:24:31,040 --> 00:24:34,680
bear case for all these or for a
lot of biotech in general was 

366
00:24:34,680 --> 00:24:37,040
like, well, sure they have. 
There's so many stocks trading 

367
00:24:37,040 --> 00:24:38,760
below cash, but they're burning 
through cash. 

368
00:24:38,960 --> 00:24:42,800
I'm like, yeah, but if you go 
through the science and the 

369
00:24:42,800 --> 00:24:48,720
progression and the timelines, 
these will rebate because the 

370
00:24:48,960 --> 00:24:52,600
the probabilities of success 
change rapidly and the time to 

371
00:24:52,600 --> 00:24:55,160
market change rapidly. 
And that's kind of your job as a

372
00:24:55,160 --> 00:24:59,360
biotech investor. 
So what I was aiming to do with 

373
00:24:59,560 --> 00:25:05,480
blog was majority of what I was 
writing was more about low 

374
00:25:05,480 --> 00:25:10,160
downside. 
I'm not looking for that 1000% 

375
00:25:10,160 --> 00:25:15,360
gainer in a day kind of stock. 
I don't, although I almost wrote

376
00:25:15,360 --> 00:25:20,960
about Spruce Bio with a month 
ago, but it was, it's really 

377
00:25:20,960 --> 00:25:24,520
just this is here. 
I don't see how you lose here 

378
00:25:24,680 --> 00:25:30,640
kind of equity writing. 
So that's how that was my 

379
00:25:30,840 --> 00:25:32,920
precipice for it. 
And I do sometimes write about 

380
00:25:32,920 --> 00:25:36,560
life science companies which are
more compounder risk. 

381
00:25:37,520 --> 00:25:40,080
Think of like a Danaher like the
revenues go up every year, like 

382
00:25:40,080 --> 00:25:41,920
Crip point revenues go up every 
year. 

383
00:25:43,160 --> 00:25:47,200
Twist is a bit of a compounder 
goes up every year, but the the 

384
00:25:47,280 --> 00:25:50,360
BIOS that I write about are more
just low downside like doesn't 

385
00:25:50,360 --> 00:25:52,240
have to. 
I'll sometimes take a shot at 

386
00:25:52,240 --> 00:25:55,040
more early stage stuff, more 
risky stuff like Caribou 

387
00:25:55,040 --> 00:25:59,000
Biosciences, like very early 
stage crispy gene genetting kind

388
00:25:59,000 --> 00:26:02,920
of stuff. 
But the majority are either late

389
00:26:02,920 --> 00:26:06,600
stage, you've got fairly beaten 
down or they have real drugs on 

390
00:26:06,600 --> 00:26:10,520
the market today, they are 
generating real revenue or stuff

391
00:26:10,520 --> 00:26:12,400
that just they're completely 
mispriced. 

392
00:26:12,680 --> 00:26:17,720
And it's effectively, I don't 
have some free money, but you're

393
00:26:17,720 --> 00:26:19,640
picking $10 bills off the street
kind of thing. 

394
00:26:20,440 --> 00:26:26,200
So in in a period where where 
it's, it's, it's it's it's go 

395
00:26:26,200 --> 00:26:31,160
time like it's about to hit. 
Yeah, and a time where there are

396
00:26:31,160 --> 00:26:33,080
at least frothy parts of the 
markets I've noted. 

397
00:26:33,080 --> 00:26:35,880
I mean, industrials seem to be 
trading like they're in a 

398
00:26:35,880 --> 00:26:41,160
recession like biotech was, but 
maybe not quite as depressed. 

399
00:26:41,800 --> 00:26:44,760
But but you know, there's 
bubbly, certainly bubbly parts 

400
00:26:44,760 --> 00:26:47,920
of the market it appears. 
So kind of interesting that a 

401
00:26:48,480 --> 00:26:53,600
sector that historically has 
done fairly well in risk seeking

402
00:26:53,680 --> 00:26:57,480
times is coming out of a 
depressed part of the cycle. 

403
00:26:59,040 --> 00:27:00,520
Yeah. 
And you know, I always said you 

404
00:27:00,520 --> 00:27:03,600
cannot have a bubble without 
biotech participating and you 

405
00:27:03,720 --> 00:27:07,440
definitely can have a bubble 
without IP OS coming back. 

406
00:27:07,840 --> 00:27:13,440
And you haven't had a biotech 
IPO and quarters like I think 

407
00:27:13,440 --> 00:27:17,200
last quarter there was 0 biotech
idea 0. 

408
00:27:17,440 --> 00:27:21,000
So just wait until the science 
project start going public 

409
00:27:21,000 --> 00:27:23,440
again. 
You know, that's when you're 

410
00:27:23,840 --> 00:27:25,960
that's when it gets hot. 
You're not even there yet, 

411
00:27:26,520 --> 00:27:28,520
right? 
And the other thing too is the 

412
00:27:28,520 --> 00:27:30,480
tools, the large tools haven't 
boot. 

413
00:27:30,560 --> 00:27:34,560
They're still in super depressed
mode, like the enter her 

414
00:27:34,560 --> 00:27:37,440
thermal, like Repligen's kind of
waking up a little bit. 

415
00:27:37,440 --> 00:27:42,040
But those are usually late later
to the party and they're still 

416
00:27:42,040 --> 00:27:46,840
in the value of death. 
So I think this is going to have

417
00:27:46,840 --> 00:27:49,840
legs for a while. 
Much of how much of those valley

418
00:27:49,840 --> 00:27:55,080
of death is sort of one big 
COVID bullwhip, right? 

419
00:27:55,080 --> 00:27:59,840
I mean, they, they sort of 
appear to have traded on a 

420
00:28:00,000 --> 00:28:03,480
pretty steep multiples on 
obviously a little bit inflated 

421
00:28:03,480 --> 00:28:07,840
earnings and then you get sort 
of the downswing. 

422
00:28:08,760 --> 00:28:11,160
I mean, how much of this is just
like the multiple burning off? 

423
00:28:11,160 --> 00:28:13,080
How much of this is 
fundamentals? 

424
00:28:13,080 --> 00:28:16,640
I I realize those questions are 
somewhat related at this point, 

425
00:28:16,640 --> 00:28:19,280
but just curious for your take 
on that. 

426
00:28:21,200 --> 00:28:27,480
I think from a biotech and tools
you had the COVID bullwhip. 

427
00:28:28,160 --> 00:28:32,840
So you had from a from tools 
perspective, a lot of inventory 

428
00:28:33,200 --> 00:28:37,160
laid up that just did not 
repeat. 

429
00:28:38,200 --> 00:28:41,920
Then you on top of that had high
interest rate environment under 

430
00:28:41,920 --> 00:28:43,440
by under late Biden 
administration. 

431
00:28:43,440 --> 00:28:47,160
You can already still today, but
it's still the path's going down

432
00:28:47,560 --> 00:28:55,120
and that chokes funding. 
It's hard to exit on biotech BC 

433
00:28:55,560 --> 00:28:59,360
big, you know, B CS that whole 
biotech equity to unload the 

434
00:28:59,360 --> 00:29:02,880
market. 
The third thing was the pricing,

435
00:29:02,880 --> 00:29:06,200
the drug pricing. 
It really kept a clamp on 

436
00:29:06,200 --> 00:29:15,120
discovery, possibly M&A. 
And the other piece was China. 

437
00:29:15,480 --> 00:29:19,520
You had in China, you can go 
discover a drug in like 6 months

438
00:29:19,760 --> 00:29:22,000
and take it to clinical trials. 
It was just the speed was 

439
00:29:22,000 --> 00:29:24,920
faster. 
And so a lot of companies like 

440
00:29:24,920 --> 00:29:28,360
Merck, let's say, would do some 
kind of arbitrage or not Merck 

441
00:29:28,440 --> 00:29:29,840
specifically. 
But there's companies out there 

442
00:29:29,840 --> 00:29:32,400
that would try to discover drug 
out in China and bring it to the

443
00:29:32,400 --> 00:29:36,000
US and then do a trial here. 
So it really drives down 

444
00:29:36,000 --> 00:29:41,760
discovery costs. 
And then on top of that, you had

445
00:29:42,560 --> 00:29:46,160
just wait and see moments like 
the pharma gets it wrong a lot. 

446
00:29:46,160 --> 00:29:48,440
I think they I think they got it
wrong this period. 

447
00:29:48,800 --> 00:29:50,320
And I think we should have been 
way more aggressive. 

448
00:29:50,320 --> 00:29:53,080
I think they got greedy. 
They had too much cash in the 

449
00:29:53,080 --> 00:29:54,480
balance sheet. 
They're trying to squeeze the 

450
00:29:54,480 --> 00:30:00,520
extra, you know, quarterly US 
interest payment in their T bill

451
00:30:00,680 --> 00:30:04,240
in the T bill investments. 
But if they'd done the work, 

452
00:30:04,240 --> 00:30:07,280
like cure should not have been 
like in my opinion, here should 

453
00:30:07,280 --> 00:30:11,120
have been an obvious buy for 
pharma, right? 

454
00:30:11,120 --> 00:30:15,000
Like they should not have been 
allowed to have that kind of 

455
00:30:15,000 --> 00:30:18,200
return. 
And in in in look at I think it 

456
00:30:18,200 --> 00:30:22,280
was Novartis plot, PTC 
therapeutics clinic and disease,

457
00:30:22,280 --> 00:30:25,480
which is a pill. 
Like why, why do you do that? 

458
00:30:26,000 --> 00:30:28,680
Like it doesn't work the science
suite to begin with. 

459
00:30:29,600 --> 00:30:31,840
What here here at least has to 
your data. 

460
00:30:31,840 --> 00:30:34,800
It's decent, right? 
Even if it degrades a little 

461
00:30:34,800 --> 00:30:40,440
bit, it's still worth a shot. 
So I don't, I think a lot of big

462
00:30:40,440 --> 00:30:42,120
pharma got it wrong too. 
I think they're going to relate 

463
00:30:42,120 --> 00:30:43,200
to the party. 
I think they're going to 

464
00:30:43,200 --> 00:30:45,400
overpay. 
I mean, it should. 

465
00:30:46,880 --> 00:30:48,720
History repeats in that 
framework. 

466
00:30:49,640 --> 00:30:52,560
The final thing is blockbusters 
like you have not a blockbuster 

467
00:30:52,640 --> 00:30:54,720
like now you have blockbuster 
with Unicare. 

468
00:30:54,720 --> 00:30:58,320
Like Unicare will be the largest
gene therapy drug in the world, 

469
00:30:58,880 --> 00:31:02,880
arguably the largest gene 
therapy drug, but possibly the 

470
00:31:02,880 --> 00:31:10,760
largest biologic drug ever. 
So you needed those those things

471
00:31:10,760 --> 00:31:13,880
that were missing. 
And I think that's why the, the 

472
00:31:13,880 --> 00:31:16,720
bear market got so deep. 
You had so much, so many 

473
00:31:16,720 --> 00:31:19,880
companies trading below cash. 
There's so many companies that 

474
00:31:19,880 --> 00:31:22,120
went bankrupt. 
You also had a cleansing moment.

475
00:31:22,120 --> 00:31:23,480
A lot of companies did go 
bankrupt. 

476
00:31:23,480 --> 00:31:26,200
A lot of biotechs, a lot of 
service companies went bankrupt.

477
00:31:27,120 --> 00:31:31,800
So it was just just a 
culmination combination of those

478
00:31:31,800 --> 00:31:35,760
factors that led to really 
ridiculous valuation. 

479
00:31:36,400 --> 00:31:37,720
I've never seen anything like 
it. 

480
00:31:38,560 --> 00:31:40,960
So it was pretty violent on the 
way down. 

481
00:31:40,960 --> 00:31:44,840
And I think it'll be violence 
coming out and also last a 

482
00:31:44,840 --> 00:31:50,440
while. 
So that's sort of my view back 

483
00:31:50,440 --> 00:31:54,520
in 23 and early 24. 
So you've been, you've been 

484
00:31:55,400 --> 00:32:01,280
fairly emphatic about people 
should do a little bit of work 

485
00:32:01,280 --> 00:32:05,600
on Twist. 
What what about that sort of 

486
00:32:05,600 --> 00:32:10,760
setup has you interested? 
Like not only you're, you're 

487
00:32:10,760 --> 00:32:12,640
looking at so many opportunities
right now. 

488
00:32:12,640 --> 00:32:14,800
Why does this one jump off the 
page at you? 

489
00:32:16,600 --> 00:32:23,480
It's a similar sort of how do I 
say this is similar rhymes, like

490
00:32:23,480 --> 00:32:27,320
clear point in terms of, OK, we 
have a company here that got to 

491
00:32:27,480 --> 00:32:32,920
very cheap, multiple like 3.8 
times next 12 months, enterprise

492
00:32:32,920 --> 00:32:37,560
valued sales, companies found 
religion on cutting costs, 

493
00:32:37,600 --> 00:32:41,200
significant amount of pressure 
from large shareholders to 

494
00:32:42,080 --> 00:32:46,400
really reduce OpEx, like like 
got rid of 30% of the employee 

495
00:32:46,600 --> 00:32:50,640
base. 
They offloaded this part of the 

496
00:32:50,640 --> 00:32:53,720
business is this sort of science
project DNA computing, I'll talk

497
00:32:53,720 --> 00:32:55,880
more about that. 
But they kind of spawned that 

498
00:32:55,880 --> 00:32:57,120
off. 
There's still a minority stake 

499
00:32:57,120 --> 00:32:59,960
in it, but they effectively 
liquidated it. 

500
00:33:01,560 --> 00:33:04,400
Gross margins are about to 
deflect, similar to clear point.

501
00:33:05,800 --> 00:33:08,080
Cost cutting is here, similar to
clear point. 

502
00:33:08,400 --> 00:33:11,440
Cash burns about to go to 0, 
similar to clear point. 

503
00:33:11,920 --> 00:33:14,920
EBITDA positive next year, 
similar to clear point. 

504
00:33:16,880 --> 00:33:19,920
And you're getting it at a very 
cheap valuation with with with 

505
00:33:20,240 --> 00:33:25,760
low share float 60 million 
shares of which 25% is short, So

506
00:33:25,760 --> 00:33:29,840
23 is. 
So if you Add all this up for a 

507
00:33:29,840 --> 00:33:33,560
company that's also might I add 
effectively a pureplay, there's 

508
00:33:33,600 --> 00:33:36,280
really nothing else in the 
public market like it. 

509
00:33:38,000 --> 00:33:42,400
Their competitor I think went 
under the only other comp. 

510
00:33:44,520 --> 00:33:50,400
So it's just and there's some 
tailwinds to it that I can talk 

511
00:33:50,400 --> 00:33:54,280
about later in a bit. 
But you add those together and 

512
00:33:54,280 --> 00:33:58,200
you're like, OK, this is going 
to this is going to rebate 

513
00:33:58,200 --> 00:34:01,480
pretty violently, right. 
You know the eight-year average 

514
00:34:01,480 --> 00:34:06,160
of the equity and I think this 
average is accurate because 

515
00:34:06,160 --> 00:34:08,199
you've had two extremes. 
You've got the highest high, 

516
00:34:08,199 --> 00:34:13,239
lowest low within that eight 
years up to 14 times enterprise 

517
00:34:13,239 --> 00:34:18,360
value to sales like a three 3.8 
times is trading lower than it 

518
00:34:18,360 --> 00:34:22,719
did at the 2023 bottom. 
I mean, it's gone up a little 

519
00:34:22,719 --> 00:34:28,199
bit since I weeded about it, but
effectively you're paying for a 

520
00:34:28,199 --> 00:34:32,960
very, very low valuation for 
this on a relative basis or an 

521
00:34:32,960 --> 00:34:36,920
income statement that's about to
inflect and for some tailwinds 

522
00:34:36,920 --> 00:34:39,880
that are pretty easy that are 
going to come into market. 

523
00:34:40,840 --> 00:34:44,719
So why do you mind going through
a little bit like first of all 

524
00:34:44,719 --> 00:34:48,840
what they do and then why this 
is timely from a business 

525
00:34:48,840 --> 00:34:51,280
standpoint, right? 
Like why is the income statement

526
00:34:51,280 --> 00:34:54,840
about to inflect? 
So I'll just high level, I don't

527
00:34:54,840 --> 00:34:59,960
want to get two side sequence. 
They do DNA synthesis. 

528
00:35:00,400 --> 00:35:03,240
So if you look at a tools 
company like let's say take a 

529
00:35:03,240 --> 00:35:09,000
COVID test or a liquid biopsy 
test or a cancer test, in order 

530
00:35:09,000 --> 00:35:11,760
for that, for that, most tests 
that are coming to market is 

531
00:35:11,760 --> 00:35:14,600
next genome sequencing and 
minimal, minimal residual tests.

532
00:35:15,840 --> 00:35:19,080
For them to be accurate, they 
need something called reagents, 

533
00:35:19,080 --> 00:35:21,920
almost like a chemical reaction 
that happens in the test to see 

534
00:35:21,920 --> 00:35:24,320
whether or not you have COVID, 
whether I have cancer, whether I

535
00:35:24,440 --> 00:35:28,080
you might have something like a 
genetic disease, OK. 

536
00:35:28,840 --> 00:35:33,160
Those reagents require DNA and 
that DNA is manufactured by 

537
00:35:33,640 --> 00:35:37,120
Twist Biosciences. 
Twist Biosets is a unique way of

538
00:35:37,120 --> 00:35:39,400
doing it where it's effectively 
DNA on a chip. 

539
00:35:39,840 --> 00:35:43,960
It was invented by Co founder 
brilliant woman in 2013 where 

540
00:35:44,240 --> 00:35:48,920
think of like a NVIDIA style 
chip but has DNA on it. 

541
00:35:48,920 --> 00:35:52,000
And it they have a very 
proprietary method of 

542
00:35:53,760 --> 00:35:58,320
synthesizing DNA in the 
cheapest, fastest, low cost 

543
00:35:59,600 --> 00:36:04,640
method with scale. 
And so if you believe that 

544
00:36:04,640 --> 00:36:07,280
there's going to be a 
proliferation of these next 

545
00:36:07,280 --> 00:36:11,960
genome sequencing and MRD tests,
which I do think there will be 

546
00:36:12,520 --> 00:36:17,600
for not only clinicians, not 
only to, to say, Hey, hey, you, 

547
00:36:17,640 --> 00:36:21,280
you have cancer or you have, you
know, genetic disease or you 

548
00:36:21,280 --> 00:36:24,800
have whatever. 
But for research and 

549
00:36:24,800 --> 00:36:27,640
particularly AI drug discovery, 
because that's data they can 

550
00:36:27,640 --> 00:36:31,160
collect and discover drugs, then
that's going to be a that's tail

551
00:36:31,160 --> 00:36:33,560
one, number one, right. 
And that's kind of on the back 

552
00:36:33,560 --> 00:36:37,200
to Personalis where Personalis 
has a pretty important catalyst 

553
00:36:37,200 --> 00:36:40,920
coming up this quarter with the 
reimbursement of the number of 

554
00:36:40,920 --> 00:36:45,640
tests, if those if that gets 
reimbursed by Medicare and that 

555
00:36:45,640 --> 00:36:50,320
creates a significant incentive 
for larger players to really 

556
00:36:52,280 --> 00:36:56,040
proliferate these tests for 
partitions and drug discovery, 

557
00:36:56,040 --> 00:36:59,160
etcetera. 
It's also good for the US and, 

558
00:36:59,160 --> 00:37:02,160
and the, you know, the 
healthcare system, the thing, if

559
00:37:02,160 --> 00:37:06,760
you did get more data and you 
detected earlier, you can solve 

560
00:37:06,760 --> 00:37:10,080
problems faster, quicker, 
discover drugs faster, quicker, 

561
00:37:11,600 --> 00:37:13,240
you know, at least for a healthy
population. 

562
00:37:13,240 --> 00:37:16,000
So it is a worthwhile investment
for the US to do that. 

563
00:37:16,800 --> 00:37:19,240
So that's, that's piece #1 like 
that's one tail one that's 

564
00:37:19,240 --> 00:37:21,960
coming. 
That's, that's like that's 

565
00:37:22,040 --> 00:37:25,680
hitting now. 
But then there's a second piece,

566
00:37:25,680 --> 00:37:28,200
which is, well, it's on the 
backs of that. 

567
00:37:28,200 --> 00:37:30,040
That's what I would say 3040% of
the business. 

568
00:37:31,120 --> 00:37:33,960
There's also drug discovery, 
which you need DNA to do that. 

569
00:37:34,600 --> 00:37:38,880
But because of AI, and I think 
people are missing this piece, 

570
00:37:38,880 --> 00:37:43,280
which is AI is not going to 
simulate a clinical trial. 

571
00:37:43,320 --> 00:37:45,640
I mean, it might, but it's you 
still have to test on humans. 

572
00:37:45,640 --> 00:37:49,160
You just never know what could 
happen in biology. 

573
00:37:49,160 --> 00:37:52,520
I think it'd be very hard for it
to discover a drug. 

574
00:37:53,160 --> 00:37:55,160
Again, I think you need a lot of
experimenting there. 

575
00:37:55,760 --> 00:37:59,720
But what it could do is assist 
scientists to synthesize certain

576
00:37:59,720 --> 00:38:01,440
chemical reactions that will be 
very useful. 

577
00:38:02,080 --> 00:38:04,680
And so one of those is called a 
antibody binder. 

578
00:38:05,080 --> 00:38:10,920
So there is now a proliferation 
as we speak today of AI 

579
00:38:10,920 --> 00:38:15,160
generated antibody binder 
generation, which if you want to

580
00:38:15,160 --> 00:38:18,800
discover any kind of drug or 
anything for finger in biology, 

581
00:38:18,840 --> 00:38:22,680
particularly in in, in in drugs,
though, you might want to see 

582
00:38:23,080 --> 00:38:25,600
where this antibody, which is 
like a protein attaches to some 

583
00:38:25,600 --> 00:38:26,960
other antibody or something 
else. 

584
00:38:27,680 --> 00:38:32,160
And for us to discover that 
manually takes a very, very, 

585
00:38:32,160 --> 00:38:36,000
very long time. 
But AI now can sort of predict 

586
00:38:36,160 --> 00:38:38,720
this antibody you might find 
with this or that. 

587
00:38:39,520 --> 00:38:43,120
And if you see that you're going
to pick up the phone, say, hey, 

588
00:38:43,120 --> 00:38:46,120
AI, that we this model that we 
created just discovered this. 

589
00:38:46,120 --> 00:38:48,680
Maybe we should try it out this 
experiment, right? 

590
00:38:49,600 --> 00:38:51,560
And you're going to pick up the 
phone, you're going to call 

591
00:38:51,560 --> 00:38:54,880
twist like I need these, I need 
clone genes right now. 

592
00:38:55,320 --> 00:38:58,960
So they'll send you now if you 
order those express clonal 

593
00:38:58,960 --> 00:39:03,600
genes, because these AIS 
discovered it, they marked those

594
00:39:03,600 --> 00:39:08,880
up to 100% at 100% gross margin.
Like it, There's no added 

595
00:39:08,880 --> 00:39:11,560
capacity to it, there's just 
price. 

596
00:39:12,920 --> 00:39:15,680
And so similar to Clear Point 
where they had, they went 

597
00:39:15,680 --> 00:39:18,400
wherever Clear Point had this 
laser where they were charging 

598
00:39:18,400 --> 00:39:22,320
$6000 per procedure and now they
created their own at $18,000, a 

599
00:39:22,320 --> 00:39:25,640
procedure that's 200% markup. 
Twist is going through the same 

600
00:39:25,640 --> 00:39:31,160
thing right now that hasn't 
appeared on the income statement

601
00:39:31,160 --> 00:39:35,200
just yet. 
And so this is where the gross 

602
00:39:35,200 --> 00:39:37,920
margins, if you look at gross 
margin in the last couple years,

603
00:39:37,960 --> 00:39:43,280
it went from 39% to 53, that's 
about to go to 70. 

604
00:39:44,880 --> 00:39:47,480
Why are they able to charge so 
much more? 

605
00:39:47,480 --> 00:39:50,800
Is it? 
Is it a demand issue? 

606
00:39:50,800 --> 00:39:53,840
Like is it a supply demand issue
or is it that they have 

607
00:39:53,840 --> 00:39:56,640
proprietary technology that 
people are now willing to pay 

608
00:39:56,640 --> 00:39:57,720
for? 
I mean. 

609
00:39:57,720 --> 00:40:00,480
Those could be related suggests.
Speed because if you were to 

610
00:40:00,480 --> 00:40:03,760
order regular regularly, it 
would take you quite a while to 

611
00:40:03,760 --> 00:40:06,360
get those genes. 
But you say I need it in three 

612
00:40:06,360 --> 00:40:12,400
days on top of the fact that 
it's using a prop tech, it's 

613
00:40:12,400 --> 00:40:15,880
using it's a high quality DNA 
reagents, etcetera, synthesis 

614
00:40:17,000 --> 00:40:20,120
and the speed. 
They can charge a little extra. 

615
00:40:20,120 --> 00:40:23,960
It's like you pay extra for 
express shipping, but this time 

616
00:40:23,960 --> 00:40:28,880
it's for synthetic DNA. 
And then the final thing that I 

617
00:40:28,960 --> 00:40:31,800
also think those are the two big
tail ones that I think are 

618
00:40:31,800 --> 00:40:33,960
coming. 
And again, a personnel 

619
00:40:34,000 --> 00:40:35,640
reimbursement will re rate the 
stock. 

620
00:40:35,880 --> 00:40:38,200
I think that the more fair 
evaluation. 

621
00:40:39,200 --> 00:40:41,760
But then there's also just the 
cure news I think is being 

622
00:40:41,760 --> 00:40:44,640
underestimated. 
I think you can have an arms 

623
00:40:44,640 --> 00:40:49,200
race for these big rare diseases
and they're going to go into a 

624
00:40:49,200 --> 00:40:53,160
late stage and they're going to 
try to one up each other all of 

625
00:40:53,160 --> 00:40:55,720
pharma or biotech and do that. 
You need DNA. 

626
00:40:57,000 --> 00:41:00,560
It's it's similar to the AI 
story, like if you need GPU's to

627
00:41:00,840 --> 00:41:04,920
create strong LLM's over time. 
And I think Twist is kind of 

628
00:41:04,920 --> 00:41:08,800
like the NVIDIA or maybe I don't
know what the great comparison 

629
00:41:08,920 --> 00:41:12,400
of a theme is, but maybe the 
ASML or TSMC of this whole 

630
00:41:13,080 --> 00:41:17,680
massive genomic revolution. 
The difference is that maybe not

631
00:41:17,680 --> 00:41:21,400
the difference, but maybe the 
similarity is that their income 

632
00:41:21,400 --> 00:41:23,440
statement is about to reflect 
you're not paying anything for 

633
00:41:23,440 --> 00:41:27,560
it. 
So that's sort of like the high 

634
00:41:27,560 --> 00:41:30,840
level thesis of the of what's 
going on. 

635
00:41:31,480 --> 00:41:34,320
It's not to mention to you, you 
have a company that is a real 

636
00:41:34,320 --> 00:41:37,960
business, they're going to do 
500 million in revenue, right? 

637
00:41:38,680 --> 00:41:40,920
In my opinion, you traded a more
fair multiple. 

638
00:41:40,920 --> 00:41:43,400
You got 60 million shares. 
I was saying that's double clear

639
00:41:43,400 --> 00:41:46,920
points, 23 percent is short. 
So you have double the shares of

640
00:41:46,920 --> 00:41:52,480
clear .10 times the revenue at 
like 115th evaluation and just 

641
00:41:52,480 --> 00:41:56,440
similar kind of story where the 
income statement is about to 

642
00:41:56,440 --> 00:41:59,120
reflect. 
The reason why clear point 

643
00:41:59,280 --> 00:42:03,160
rocketed is because the income 
statement is about to reflect in

644
00:42:03,160 --> 00:42:07,680
a violent way, right? 
You don't need a lot of CapEx 

645
00:42:08,920 --> 00:42:10,920
and you have your, your pricing 
power just went up. 

646
00:42:10,960 --> 00:42:14,400
You went from a clinical trial 
to Huntington's to commercial 

647
00:42:14,400 --> 00:42:17,160
and Huntington's. 
So candlelights are much more, 

648
00:42:17,440 --> 00:42:20,560
your services are much more, 
your software is much more 

649
00:42:20,800 --> 00:42:23,400
right. 
You have price taking in that 

650
00:42:23,400 --> 00:42:27,920
ecosystem. 
So I think Twist not only will 

651
00:42:27,920 --> 00:42:31,960
see price go up, but also 
volumes based on those two 

652
00:42:33,200 --> 00:42:37,080
previously mentioned tailwinds. 
Now who? 

653
00:42:37,080 --> 00:42:40,480
Who else can satisfy an order 
like Twist can? 

654
00:42:40,560 --> 00:42:44,640
And if there is anyone? 
I mean, that's that's the other 

655
00:42:44,640 --> 00:42:47,280
beauty, which is they're coming 
to tried. 

656
00:42:47,280 --> 00:42:50,400
I think Zyme was one of them. 
They went bust. 

657
00:42:51,000 --> 00:42:54,480
Ginkgo Bioworks try to, but 
they're a customer of twist, 

658
00:42:56,080 --> 00:42:59,560
just a couple private companies 
that can also do synthetic DNA, 

659
00:42:59,560 --> 00:43:04,080
but they're more expensive, 
arguably less quality, less 

660
00:43:04,080 --> 00:43:08,480
scale. 
You know, there's some parts of 

661
00:43:08,920 --> 00:43:13,720
thermal being heard that kind of
are in there, But again, no 

662
00:43:13,720 --> 00:43:17,520
one's buying from them. 
They don't have the tech. 

663
00:43:18,160 --> 00:43:20,280
They don't have the same 
investments made. 

664
00:43:22,680 --> 00:43:27,040
So it's kind of a clear play. 
And that's my fear is the 

665
00:43:27,040 --> 00:43:29,400
takeout. 
They might be a takeout by Dan 

666
00:43:29,400 --> 00:43:33,080
or her or Thermo. 
That's sort of the what I kind 

667
00:43:33,080 --> 00:43:36,280
of, I mean, I hope I'd, I'd be 
shocked they would sell here at 

668
00:43:36,280 --> 00:43:41,920
this low evaluation. 
But that is that is the the 

669
00:43:41,920 --> 00:43:44,200
fear. 
But that's the beauty of it. 

670
00:43:45,880 --> 00:43:53,600
I think until you prove out 
these tailwinds just I, you 

671
00:43:53,600 --> 00:43:58,400
know, I don't think you'll see 
any big MNA happen until then. 

672
00:43:58,640 --> 00:44:05,000
So. 
If I wanted to like recreate 

673
00:44:05,440 --> 00:44:08,240
twist, like if if we were to 
look at this from a Tobin's 

674
00:44:08,240 --> 00:44:11,800
queue or whatever, what like 
what do you think it would cost?

675
00:44:12,200 --> 00:44:14,920
How, how long would it take to 
replicate this business and how 

676
00:44:14,920 --> 00:44:17,120
long and how much do you think 
it would cost? 

677
00:44:17,120 --> 00:44:21,120
I I'm just trying to figure out 
like that was it gets, it gets 

678
00:44:21,760 --> 00:44:25,200
easier for me to think about 
when, when we start talking 

679
00:44:25,200 --> 00:44:27,640
about that way. 
One of the things that make your

680
00:44:27,640 --> 00:44:31,200
point so easy is it's like, 
well, this thing took 20 years 

681
00:44:31,200 --> 00:44:34,680
or 17 years to get here, plus 
however much was invested, like 

682
00:44:35,200 --> 00:44:38,040
it's either worth replacing or 
not. 

683
00:44:38,040 --> 00:44:41,920
But at some of these valuations,
you're just kind of betting that

684
00:44:41,920 --> 00:44:44,960
the business is worth replacing.
And by the way, to your point, 

685
00:44:45,040 --> 00:44:48,880
you end up with, you know, 
potential re rating when people 

686
00:44:48,880 --> 00:44:52,360
realize what it is. 
Yeah. 

687
00:44:52,400 --> 00:44:55,320
I mean, look there, it's a 
again, this is a real business, 

688
00:44:55,320 --> 00:44:56,920
500 million revenue business, 
right? 

689
00:44:57,040 --> 00:45:00,760
DNA synthesis not only applies 
to drug discovery, but applies 

690
00:45:00,760 --> 00:45:04,360
to industrial applications, it 
applies to agriculture, 

691
00:45:04,360 --> 00:45:06,840
everything, right. 
So you'd have to somehow figure 

692
00:45:06,840 --> 00:45:10,240
out a way to circumvent their 
key patents, which are pretty 

693
00:45:10,240 --> 00:45:12,520
strong, right. 
How do you create DNA on an in 

694
00:45:12,520 --> 00:45:16,000
silico chip that performs 
better, is cheaper than anything

695
00:45:16,000 --> 00:45:19,000
else in the market? 
So good luck with that. 

696
00:45:19,000 --> 00:45:20,800
That's .1. 
The second is you'd have to 

697
00:45:20,800 --> 00:45:23,920
create some kind of factory, I 
think they call it factory of 

698
00:45:23,920 --> 00:45:25,600
the future to meet demand and 
scale. 

699
00:45:26,400 --> 00:45:29,200
Again, good luck with that. 
You'd also have to, and they 

700
00:45:29,200 --> 00:45:32,920
have something called a library 
of libraries that Twist has. 

701
00:45:33,360 --> 00:45:38,360
So when they, when they sort of 
sell reagents and to to, you 

702
00:45:38,360 --> 00:45:43,120
know, IGS and MRDMRD, they 
collect a lot of data on where 

703
00:45:43,120 --> 00:45:46,200
the DNA goes and how the DNA 
react and how the trip to 

704
00:45:46,200 --> 00:45:48,520
perform, etcetera. 
And they created like a massive 

705
00:45:48,520 --> 00:45:50,360
database. 
And if you want to use any of 

706
00:45:50,360 --> 00:45:54,640
that database to discover a 
drug, you have to pay them 

707
00:45:54,640 --> 00:45:56,240
almost kind of like a milestone.
Think of it. 

708
00:45:57,160 --> 00:46:00,560
So you have to somehow recreate 
all that data again. 

709
00:46:00,560 --> 00:46:04,000
Good luck with that. 
And then the final piece is 

710
00:46:04,320 --> 00:46:07,400
these guys are in 70 to 80%, I 
think of like liquid biopsy 

711
00:46:07,400 --> 00:46:11,000
tests or they are they Grail 
Lumina, the Terra. 

712
00:46:11,880 --> 00:46:16,440
And so if you have a NGS or MRD 
or any, any tests like that 

713
00:46:17,320 --> 00:46:19,920
where you need to get an FDA 
application approved, like 

714
00:46:19,920 --> 00:46:25,640
you're going to need to get a 
510K, you're not going to you're

715
00:46:25,640 --> 00:46:27,000
not going to risk it with some 
upstart. 

716
00:46:27,480 --> 00:46:30,880
You're going to want the one 
that is hasn't had a problem 

717
00:46:30,880 --> 00:46:34,200
with the FDA before. 
Now I'm not saying you need 

718
00:46:34,400 --> 00:46:38,920
Twist specifically their DNA 
synthesis to get your device 

719
00:46:38,920 --> 00:46:43,320
approved, but why would you risk
it? 

720
00:46:43,320 --> 00:46:48,800
That's what I don't understand. 
So you probably need a good, you

721
00:46:48,800 --> 00:46:50,960
need a lot of money. 
I don't know what the number 

722
00:46:50,960 --> 00:46:57,080
would be, but it would be many 
billions and 20 years, maybe 15 

723
00:46:57,080 --> 00:47:02,040
years. 
I hope you're enjoying this 

724
00:47:02,040 --> 00:47:05,000
conversation. 
I'm interrupting the program to 

725
00:47:05,000 --> 00:47:08,560
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741
00:47:54,600 --> 00:47:58,000
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742
00:47:58,000 --> 00:48:00,720
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743
00:48:01,040 --> 00:48:03,800
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744
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OK thanks. 

745
00:48:06,320 --> 00:48:09,880
Enjoy the rest of the program. 
So maybe like, what's how could 

746
00:48:09,880 --> 00:48:13,360
you replicate TCMC in the USI 
mean, Intel's trying to do that,

747
00:48:13,360 --> 00:48:15,320
I guess. 
Like how much money would you 

748
00:48:15,320 --> 00:48:17,040
need to create another foundry 
in America? 

749
00:48:18,040 --> 00:48:20,240
A lot, maybe, maybe some 
government backing. 

750
00:48:21,160 --> 00:48:23,640
And then you have to convince 
all of their customers to 

751
00:48:23,640 --> 00:48:28,080
switch, right? 
But this time, like, you know, 

752
00:48:28,120 --> 00:48:31,680
the customers aren't people 
dying or people sick or people 

753
00:48:31,680 --> 00:48:34,600
having an accurate read of their
disease. 

754
00:48:34,600 --> 00:48:41,600
It's computing power, right? 
So that's sort of the how I 

755
00:48:41,600 --> 00:48:44,880
would frame it for those without
getting too deep in the weed of 

756
00:48:44,880 --> 00:48:50,920
science is how how easy would 
it, how much money would you 

757
00:48:50,920 --> 00:48:53,960
need to start up somewhere like 
kind of like a foundry? 

758
00:48:54,520 --> 00:48:57,840
And even if you did do that, to 
get to their scientific 

759
00:48:57,840 --> 00:49:02,400
expertise and their technology, 
again takes a really long time 

760
00:49:03,200 --> 00:49:06,360
to do that. 
And then if you do, you also 

761
00:49:06,360 --> 00:49:09,040
have to convince their customers
to switch and you've got to 

762
00:49:09,040 --> 00:49:13,520
produce it at a cheaper price. 
Cheaper and faster. 

763
00:49:13,640 --> 00:49:16,120
Yeah. 
Oh, so and you, as you know in 

764
00:49:16,120 --> 00:49:19,360
healthcare, I mean, good luck 
switching, right? 

765
00:49:20,320 --> 00:49:25,240
Like, good luck. 
So yeah, that's that's probably 

766
00:49:25,240 --> 00:49:34,440
the way I think about it. 
How did they figure this 

767
00:49:34,440 --> 00:49:37,360
technology out that you said 
they they like basically print 

768
00:49:37,360 --> 00:49:39,760
DNA on chips? 
Like what? 

769
00:49:39,760 --> 00:49:41,000
How? 
How did this? 

770
00:49:41,200 --> 00:49:43,360
Do you have any idea how this 
thing even started it? 

771
00:49:46,840 --> 00:49:48,560
Was Jennifer? 
I don't remember her last name, 

772
00:49:48,560 --> 00:49:51,520
but she was. 
She's discovered in San 

773
00:49:51,520 --> 00:49:55,760
Francisco, Berkeley, I think it 
was there's a novel way to 

774
00:49:55,760 --> 00:50:00,960
synthesize DNA and, you know, 
create DNA for the most advanced

775
00:50:00,960 --> 00:50:06,680
applications. 
And so, you know, again, it's 

776
00:50:06,680 --> 00:50:11,400
not just, it's not just drugs, 
it's think of bio security, 

777
00:50:11,600 --> 00:50:17,040
think of think of agriculture, 
think of energy like you can, 

778
00:50:17,040 --> 00:50:23,080
you can now synthesize these. 
And again, it's the, the 

779
00:50:23,080 --> 00:50:27,960
technology's so advanced, you 
have to pull up your deck to 

780
00:50:28,320 --> 00:50:31,120
show you the comparison of 
exactly like how advanced it is 

781
00:50:31,120 --> 00:50:34,040
and how cheap it is. 
But it's so advanced and cheap 

782
00:50:34,320 --> 00:50:36,320
and scalable. 
What's the other thing like they

783
00:50:36,320 --> 00:50:39,920
have a factory of the future, 
they call it FOTF that has at 

784
00:50:39,920 --> 00:50:45,320
700 million of revenue capacity 
that is now not being utilized 

785
00:50:45,320 --> 00:50:48,680
because again, you were in a 
biotech fair market, right? 

786
00:50:51,120 --> 00:50:54,520
So there isn't a lot of capacity
either of these, these 

787
00:50:54,520 --> 00:50:56,280
factories. 
So you'd have to somehow invest 

788
00:50:56,280 --> 00:50:59,440
in that too. 
It's not just your technology 

789
00:50:59,440 --> 00:51:01,840
and trust, but like the trust 
part of that trust in the 

790
00:51:01,840 --> 00:51:04,200
ecosystem is can you, can you 
deliver what you promised to you

791
00:51:04,200 --> 00:51:07,320
with deliver? 
And I think that's a difficult 

792
00:51:07,320 --> 00:51:09,320
piece too. 
How did you come up with it? 

793
00:51:09,320 --> 00:51:12,640
I, I don't know, like this is 
that's above my pay grade. 

794
00:51:13,920 --> 00:51:16,640
It's a novel idea. 
It was exciting technology when 

795
00:51:16,640 --> 00:51:19,520
it came out, right? 
This was a one of one kind of 

796
00:51:19,520 --> 00:51:21,160
asset. 
That's why this thing rebated to

797
00:51:21,160 --> 00:51:26,280
85 times sale or 55 times sale 
in 2021, right? 

798
00:51:26,280 --> 00:51:30,760
It was these D reagent of DNA 
synthesis in a low and straight 

799
00:51:30,760 --> 00:51:32,180
environment. 
Plus you had a bunch of COVID 

800
00:51:32,180 --> 00:51:35,400
tests going around. 
So I mean, this thing got up to 

801
00:51:35,400 --> 00:51:42,960
just insane evaluation. 
So yeah, no, this is one of 

802
00:51:42,960 --> 00:51:47,560
those companies where if you 
thought NVIDIA or ASML was, if 

803
00:51:47,800 --> 00:51:50,360
you didn't know anything about 
AI, and he said I want to play 

804
00:51:50,360 --> 00:51:53,880
AI through a stock exposure. 
He said, God, maybe I want 

805
00:51:53,880 --> 00:51:56,360
NVIDIA, maybe about ASML. 
They buy TSMC, right? 

806
00:51:56,600 --> 00:51:59,080
I don't know much about semi's. 
I'm not an electrical engineer. 

807
00:51:59,400 --> 00:52:02,920
I don't know anything about like
advanced computing, but I just 

808
00:52:02,920 --> 00:52:04,600
know these guys are really 
valuable in the ecosystem. 

809
00:52:05,200 --> 00:52:06,760
That's the same thing with twits
here. 

810
00:52:06,920 --> 00:52:12,840
It's more like an ETF for that 
that space, that sector and you 

811
00:52:12,840 --> 00:52:16,000
got yourself, how difficult 
would it be to compete against 

812
00:52:16,000 --> 00:52:18,200
the video? 
How difficult would it be for 

813
00:52:18,200 --> 00:52:21,640
Intel or AMD or Micron or and 
these guys have against the 

814
00:52:21,640 --> 00:52:22,520
video. 
Apparently it's pretty 

815
00:52:22,520 --> 00:52:26,240
difficult. 
So not only do you have so take 

816
00:52:26,240 --> 00:52:30,360
that analogy, take away any 
other public comp and then put 

817
00:52:30,360 --> 00:52:31,680
it to healthcare where people 
die. 

818
00:52:33,640 --> 00:52:46,560
That's Twist. 
So the the interesting piece of 

819
00:52:46,560 --> 00:52:50,760
this business is you have this 
inflection coming effectively a 

820
00:52:50,760 --> 00:52:56,080
pureplay that has 23% of shares 
flow short. 

821
00:52:56,840 --> 00:52:57,520
Yes. 
So what do? 

822
00:52:57,520 --> 00:52:59,120
What do I mean? 
What do the shorts say? 

823
00:52:59,120 --> 00:53:00,800
Right? 
Like when you see short interest

824
00:53:00,800 --> 00:53:03,800
like that, short sellers on 
average are not dumb. 

825
00:53:05,160 --> 00:53:07,760
There's plenty of studies that 
show like heavily shorted stocks

826
00:53:07,760 --> 00:53:09,120
aren't really where you want to 
play. 

827
00:53:09,880 --> 00:53:14,440
So is it? 
Are people pressing decremental 

828
00:53:15,600 --> 00:53:19,040
numbers or like like what's 
going on on the short side? 

829
00:53:19,040 --> 00:53:22,480
Scorpion. 
Scorpion had a good a report on 

830
00:53:23,480 --> 00:53:28,880
the business like a couple years
ago, maybe a year ago on on 

831
00:53:28,880 --> 00:53:31,320
everything. 
But it was, in my opinion, was 

832
00:53:31,320 --> 00:53:35,280
more macro than than anything 
real. 

833
00:53:36,120 --> 00:53:42,000
And so the other piece to this 
is this is, I think, an arc G 

834
00:53:42,400 --> 00:53:46,840
Kathy Wood oldest. 
So I think she'd be selling in 

835
00:53:46,840 --> 00:53:50,240
the 20s. 
But it's it's a combination of 

836
00:53:50,240 --> 00:53:53,640
those two factors. 
My opinion that had the shorts 

837
00:53:53,640 --> 00:53:58,840
get a little greedy here and 
look, they were right for a 

838
00:53:58,840 --> 00:54:02,200
while. 
Like this was in the doldrums in

839
00:54:02,200 --> 00:54:06,880
terms of their expense budgets. 
And they had, they had this DNA 

840
00:54:06,880 --> 00:54:10,440
computing business where 
literally you could put store 

841
00:54:10,440 --> 00:54:13,960
information on DNA, the 
computing information on DNA, 

842
00:54:14,400 --> 00:54:17,320
like really sci-fi stuff that 
wasn't making any money. 

843
00:54:17,320 --> 00:54:19,520
It was effectively a science 
project and it was sucking up so

844
00:54:19,520 --> 00:54:24,760
much cash. 
But all those pieces are now in 

845
00:54:24,760 --> 00:54:29,200
the rearview mirror. 
And so I, I don't think there's 

846
00:54:29,200 --> 00:54:35,640
any downside either. 
The other thing I would also say

847
00:54:35,640 --> 00:54:39,040
is in 2021, you had initiations 
from a number of big banks like 

848
00:54:39,040 --> 00:54:42,200
Barclays and Baird, William 
Blair, blah, blah. 

849
00:54:42,840 --> 00:54:46,600
And if you read those reports, 
they had projections like what 

850
00:54:46,600 --> 00:54:50,040
they think revenue was going to 
go in 223456. 

851
00:54:50,880 --> 00:54:53,520
And if you look at how what the 
projections were in 21 at a 

852
00:54:53,520 --> 00:54:56,560
froth evaluation versus what 
they actually performed, they 

853
00:54:56,560 --> 00:55:00,040
surpassed them all. 
So like Barclays for example had

854
00:55:00,040 --> 00:55:04,280
like 180 million, I think it was
178 in revenue in 2223 and they 

855
00:55:04,280 --> 00:55:08,760
had like 220 like they beat 
every single year of those 

856
00:55:08,760 --> 00:55:10,880
projections. 
But the stock just kept getting 

857
00:55:10,880 --> 00:55:12,640
rebated down and down and down 
and down and down. 

858
00:55:13,400 --> 00:55:17,440
And so if you have a money 
losing biotech funding, tied 

859
00:55:17,960 --> 00:55:24,480
discovery, tied equity that as 
yet the founder religion is part

860
00:55:24,480 --> 00:55:29,120
of a large ETF that you know, is
it's controversial. 

861
00:55:29,360 --> 00:55:32,000
Yeah, I do. 
Negative momentum gets smaller 

862
00:55:32,000 --> 00:55:33,920
and smaller. 
Right. 

863
00:55:34,240 --> 00:55:36,920
Yeah, that's you're on the wrong
side of a good amount of 

864
00:55:36,920 --> 00:55:38,920
factors. 
Right, right. 

865
00:55:39,480 --> 00:55:43,120
A lot, a lot of the spaces these
companies, the other thing that 

866
00:55:43,160 --> 00:55:45,840
benefited these guys is the 
elimination of the competition. 

867
00:55:46,400 --> 00:55:52,440
It's capital being sucked out if
capacity going out of of this 

868
00:55:52,440 --> 00:55:57,000
sector, no new insurance coming 
in, right. 

869
00:55:57,000 --> 00:56:01,320
So when there is going to be a 
requirement for exposure, this 

870
00:56:01,320 --> 00:56:05,280
is probably the only way that 
you really can play this. 

871
00:56:05,840 --> 00:56:07,800
Yeah. 
Well to your point, I mean what 

872
00:56:07,800 --> 00:56:10,720
it in the deck they say that 
they are currently using less 

873
00:56:10,720 --> 00:56:13,320
than 50% of their existing 
capacity. 

874
00:56:14,520 --> 00:56:17,840
If you're if you're best of 
breed and that's what you're 

875
00:56:17,840 --> 00:56:21,720
doing or even sort of close to 
best of breed, you would imagine

876
00:56:21,720 --> 00:56:27,320
that some of your competition is
utilizing even less unless you 

877
00:56:27,320 --> 00:56:29,880
just like way overbuilt, which 
is also possible. 

878
00:56:29,880 --> 00:56:32,960
I know that you alluded to they 
they did overbuild a little bit,

879
00:56:33,000 --> 00:56:37,680
but tough time to. 
So you might compete with them 

880
00:56:38,120 --> 00:56:40,760
right now. 
You might get a situation where 

881
00:56:41,080 --> 00:56:43,360
I don't think long term you'll 
get this, but you might get a 

882
00:56:43,360 --> 00:56:45,200
short term capacity constraint 
market. 

883
00:56:46,600 --> 00:56:50,520
And if that's the case, then 
pricing isn't 200%. 

884
00:56:50,520 --> 00:56:54,320
It's going to be way more. 
I, I don't, I, I can see it 

885
00:56:54,320 --> 00:56:58,200
happen if you get a real 
proliferation of AI on this 

886
00:56:58,200 --> 00:57:04,960
antibody generation thing. 
But yeah, like 700 million 

887
00:57:04,960 --> 00:57:07,240
capacity, it's a lot, but it's 
not that much. 

888
00:57:08,240 --> 00:57:12,760
So that's another thing to keep 
an eye on is how much capacity 

889
00:57:12,760 --> 00:57:14,360
is out there. 
And there isn't a lot. 

890
00:57:14,400 --> 00:57:17,840
Well, because there the man 
wasn't there at the time, so. 

891
00:57:23,400 --> 00:57:25,440
And then what's, what's the deal
with Personalis? 

892
00:57:25,440 --> 00:57:32,600
So these guys help you. 
They can test for cancer much 

893
00:57:32,600 --> 00:57:35,920
more. 
That was a bit more than any 

894
00:57:35,920 --> 00:57:40,560
other test out there. 
Yeah, that one's a bit more 

895
00:57:40,560 --> 00:57:42,080
risky. 
It's Catalyst driven. 

896
00:57:42,080 --> 00:57:46,920
It's, you know, text diagnostic.
So they, they're Tempest AI, 

897
00:57:47,040 --> 00:57:54,120
which is, yeah, Antiglosa 
Special owns 19.99999% of the 

898
00:57:54,120 --> 00:57:57,440
company. 
Merck, I think put in 50 or 80 

899
00:57:57,440 --> 00:58:00,440
million bucks into it too. 
And so it's a way for clinicians

900
00:58:00,440 --> 00:58:03,280
and even drug companies to 
discover drugs. 

901
00:58:03,280 --> 00:58:08,000
If I take Bill's blood and I 
want to say, hey, you know, this

902
00:58:08,000 --> 00:58:10,160
is the the probability that you 
have this kind of genetic 

903
00:58:10,160 --> 00:58:13,880
disease or cancer or whatever. 
That data is useful for me to 

904
00:58:13,880 --> 00:58:17,760
discover personalized medicine, 
some drugs just for Bill and 

905
00:58:17,760 --> 00:58:21,880
people like Bill or Bill's 
family, but also doctors as 

906
00:58:21,880 --> 00:58:24,760
well. 
But the catalyst or personalis 

907
00:58:24,760 --> 00:58:27,480
it's up for Medicare approval 
any day now. 

908
00:58:29,040 --> 00:58:33,400
And I know we go through this 
for the Uni cure website change,

909
00:58:33,400 --> 00:58:35,960
but they recently hired up on a 
posting a job posting of a 

910
00:58:35,960 --> 00:58:40,720
billing specialist October 3rd. 
So I'm assuming that it's coming

911
00:58:40,960 --> 00:58:44,120
soon Ish, right. 
And again, Personalis another 

912
00:58:44,120 --> 00:58:49,560
gap who would special with high 
short interest, I think higher 

913
00:58:49,560 --> 00:58:54,160
short interest than twist. 
So yeah, that one will also 

914
00:58:54,160 --> 00:58:58,040
rebate violently and that will 
rebate as violent as clear 

915
00:58:58,040 --> 00:59:01,760
point. 
We rated, I would say because 

916
00:59:01,760 --> 00:59:05,920
they again, the income statement
is about to reflect and that 

917
00:59:05,920 --> 00:59:10,000
that, but both twist and 
Personalis move like twist will 

918
00:59:10,000 --> 00:59:12,600
move a little less violent than 
personalized, but we'll move in 

919
00:59:12,600 --> 00:59:16,440
the same factor or same 
direction, same pattern. 

920
00:59:17,080 --> 00:59:20,480
Because if you have that 
proliferation of those tests 

921
00:59:20,640 --> 00:59:25,720
and, and wow, AI is maybe being 
used for drug discovery, there's

922
00:59:25,720 --> 00:59:30,640
a lot of skeptics out there 
right now and that will benefit 

923
00:59:30,640 --> 00:59:33,280
the DNA synthesis market 
substantially. 

924
00:59:36,240 --> 00:59:40,240
It's wild that personalists 
traded as low as $1.35 a share. 

925
00:59:40,240 --> 00:59:44,320
Now it's 855 and it what? 
In COVID times it almost touched

926
00:59:44,320 --> 00:59:45,360
50. 
That's not. 

927
00:59:46,200 --> 00:59:52,120
Yeah, Twist was it like 10 
bucks, 11 bucks and 20 similar 

928
00:59:52,120 --> 00:59:57,120
around similar time and it's 
about as cheap as it was then. 

929
00:59:57,600 --> 01:00:01,160
So yeah, they kind of move the 
same similar factors because 

930
01:00:01,160 --> 01:00:05,920
they are part of the same 
exposure in their business. 

931
01:00:08,200 --> 01:00:10,960
You know, it's funny, like you 
look at something like Sound 

932
01:00:10,960 --> 01:00:14,800
Hound, which I don't know enough
about, but I think I might know 

933
01:00:14,800 --> 01:00:17,520
enough about. 
And you look at the valuation 

934
01:00:17,520 --> 01:00:20,240
that something like that is 
trading at because it's got AI 

935
01:00:20,240 --> 01:00:22,120
exposure. 
And then you look at the 

936
01:00:22,520 --> 01:00:24,440
valuation that these are trading
at. 

937
01:00:24,440 --> 01:00:29,200
And it's as if the AI story has 
not even found its way to life 

938
01:00:29,200 --> 01:00:31,400
sciences, healthcare, like 
whatever. 

939
01:00:31,400 --> 01:00:34,600
Broadly, however you want to 
define these companies, it's 

940
01:00:34,600 --> 01:00:39,120
interesting that you there's at 
least a credible argument to be 

941
01:00:39,120 --> 01:00:41,920
made that you've got an AI 
option for free somewhere in the

942
01:00:41,920 --> 01:00:44,560
market that is so frothy, 
Everything AI. 

943
01:00:46,840 --> 01:00:48,720
Yeah. 
I mean, the benefit of some of 

944
01:00:48,720 --> 01:00:51,560
these life science companies and
even the biotech community and 

945
01:00:51,560 --> 01:00:56,120
life science community is the 
group of investors in the 

946
01:00:56,120 --> 01:01:00,280
sciences are very smart. 
It's probably the smartest group

947
01:01:00,280 --> 01:01:04,480
of investors that I've 
encountered across any sector in

948
01:01:04,480 --> 01:01:08,480
the financial markets because 
you need to have obviously 

949
01:01:08,480 --> 01:01:11,280
scientific background, but you 
also, they're also very smart 

950
01:01:11,320 --> 01:01:17,680
equity investors and a lot of 
them are skeptical on AI and it 

951
01:01:17,680 --> 01:01:22,480
they're, it's value to drug 
discovery for a number of 

952
01:01:22,480 --> 01:01:25,480
reasons, right? 
The the most simple reason is 

953
01:01:25,520 --> 01:01:28,240
it's biology. 
Anything can happen, right? 

954
01:01:28,400 --> 01:01:31,120
The machine is going to make if 
you think the machine makes 

955
01:01:31,120 --> 01:01:37,320
mistakes making your resume with
AI like imagine with a human 

956
01:01:37,320 --> 01:01:46,400
being like a biology with a real
real world molecules and so that

957
01:01:46,440 --> 01:01:52,520
AI wind has not captured the 
aura or the scent of the of that

958
01:01:52,520 --> 01:01:55,240
group that this group is very 
much focused on. 

959
01:01:55,320 --> 01:01:58,280
OK. 
Is the income statement going to

960
01:01:58,280 --> 01:02:00,560
inflect? 
And that's really what biotech 

961
01:02:00,560 --> 01:02:03,480
investing is. 
If the drug, if a company has a 

962
01:02:03,480 --> 01:02:07,080
drug with good data, then income
is going to reflect at a higher 

963
01:02:07,080 --> 01:02:09,760
probability at a faster rate 
than what we thought it was. 

964
01:02:09,760 --> 01:02:11,520
And that's why it needs to be re
rated immediately. 

965
01:02:12,640 --> 01:02:16,240
So this AI stuff hasn't really 
caught wind of this group yet 

966
01:02:16,680 --> 01:02:18,920
and generalists haven't caught 
wind of this yet. 

967
01:02:19,040 --> 01:02:22,800
And I think also having such a 
long and deep and painful bear 

968
01:02:22,800 --> 01:02:25,960
market has scared a lot of 
people, right? 

969
01:02:25,960 --> 01:02:28,160
They never, ever want to 
experience that ever again. 

970
01:02:29,160 --> 01:02:31,160
And there might be some 
investors who like maybe caught 

971
01:02:31,400 --> 01:02:35,840
Twist or Personalis earlier on 
and you know, they just started 

972
01:02:35,840 --> 01:02:38,720
making money or maybe just got 
back to break even and maybe 

973
01:02:38,720 --> 01:02:41,600
they're still underwater. 
It's such a painful sector. 

974
01:02:42,520 --> 01:02:47,840
So it takes a while for this 
group to get frothy because it's

975
01:02:47,840 --> 01:02:51,400
so it's got such smart eyes on 
it, right? 

976
01:02:51,400 --> 01:02:55,680
And such catalyst driven and 
it's it's a very good area for 

977
01:02:55,680 --> 01:02:59,880
long short, which again, like 
the level of investor is a bit 

978
01:03:00,280 --> 01:03:04,800
smarter, right? 
So it's a little less retail 

979
01:03:04,800 --> 01:03:06,960
exposed. 
I'm starting to see a little 

980
01:03:06,960 --> 01:03:10,680
more retail come into the Med 
tech life side stuff, starting 

981
01:03:10,680 --> 01:03:13,920
to see valuations go up. 
Now they're starting to see Irrs

982
01:03:13,920 --> 01:03:17,320
go down. 
But at the same time, 

983
01:03:18,360 --> 01:03:21,760
fundamentals are also kind of 
moving in that's direction as 

984
01:03:21,760 --> 01:03:24,440
well. 
Like there's not hot air as much

985
01:03:24,440 --> 01:03:26,320
as any other sectors like I 
sound out, let's say. 

986
01:03:27,280 --> 01:03:31,080
So that those are the biggest 
differences with the life 

987
01:03:31,080 --> 01:03:35,520
science sector. 
And and like biotech, you're 

988
01:03:35,520 --> 01:03:40,640
going to have smart people 
question capacity, question 

989
01:03:40,640 --> 01:03:45,280
inventory, question data. 
And that is usually the press 

990
01:03:45,280 --> 01:03:49,120
this for bubble deflation. 
Now, if you start seeing science

991
01:03:49,120 --> 01:03:55,440
projects like literally Bill and
Peter Ventures Inc, Bioscience 

992
01:03:55,440 --> 01:03:59,120
Inc, come on the public market 
with nothing but water in a can,

993
01:03:59,440 --> 01:04:02,080
OK, then it's getting really 
frothy. 

994
01:04:02,080 --> 01:04:03,440
But we're nowhere near those 
phones. 

995
01:04:04,360 --> 01:04:07,320
Yeah, just yet. 
So yeah, it's just a different 

996
01:04:07,320 --> 01:04:11,800
sector that just hasn't caught 
wind of that momentum trade. 

997
01:04:11,800 --> 01:04:15,400
I mean, it's slowly starting. 
That usually takes a while. 

998
01:04:23,600 --> 01:04:28,280
It's interesting. 
I I have heard the same out of a

999
01:04:29,400 --> 01:04:32,040
couple, you know, I don't know, 
you and you and Elliot Turner 

1000
01:04:32,040 --> 01:04:35,560
are the two that I talked about 
about this stuff and your your 

1001
01:04:35,560 --> 01:04:38,480
theses rhyme and it's 
interesting. 

1002
01:04:40,560 --> 01:04:42,280
It's OK. 
It's a smart guy like he. 

1003
01:04:42,280 --> 01:04:46,800
He knows the space very well. 
So and he's, he's been around, 

1004
01:04:46,880 --> 01:04:49,680
he's been around the sector and 
and he talks a lot of these 

1005
01:04:49,840 --> 01:04:55,040
companies, small companies too. 
And there's a reason, there's a 

1006
01:04:55,040 --> 01:04:58,920
reason why it kind of rhymes. 
We're, we're just messengers 

1007
01:04:58,920 --> 01:05:02,880
here telling you, hey, this is 
where the opportunity knocks and

1008
01:05:02,880 --> 01:05:05,520
this is where this is where you 
can get this. 

1009
01:05:06,240 --> 01:05:09,080
You look at sectors across the 
across the markets, where else 

1010
01:05:09,080 --> 01:05:12,840
can we get very good businesses 
like 70 plus percent gross 

1011
01:05:12,840 --> 01:05:19,400
margin with pricing that have 
been beaten down to tremendous 

1012
01:05:19,400 --> 01:05:24,680
levels and actually rise on 
fundamentals, right Or even you 

1013
01:05:24,680 --> 01:05:30,480
know they they actually move on 
good data or catalyst or things 

1014
01:05:30,480 --> 01:05:37,720
that are stock should move on. 
So if, if you're looking for 

1015
01:05:37,720 --> 01:05:40,400
the, for, for an area to invest 
in, I mean, I think people 

1016
01:05:40,400 --> 01:05:43,440
should look at life science and 
I mean, biotech is tough. 

1017
01:05:43,440 --> 01:05:45,560
It's a very tough sector and 
life science is a very tough 

1018
01:05:45,560 --> 01:05:49,680
sector. 
But no, I'm not I, I, I'm scared

1019
01:05:49,680 --> 01:05:52,200
to get into software. 
I don't know anything about 

1020
01:05:52,200 --> 01:05:53,640
software. 
I don't know why anyone. 

1021
01:05:53,640 --> 01:05:55,920
I don't know if AI is going to 
switch out work day, probably 

1022
01:05:55,920 --> 01:05:58,000
not, but I don't, I don't know 
anything about that. 

1023
01:05:59,000 --> 01:06:07,320
So, you know, it's there's a, 
why are you get the return on 

1024
01:06:07,320 --> 01:06:10,320
brain damage and whether or not 
a is going to take over Adobe 

1025
01:06:10,880 --> 01:06:15,240
when you have beautiful 
businesses here with regulatory 

1026
01:06:15,240 --> 01:06:20,800
capture and pricing power and 
are, you know, are not bits on 

1027
01:06:20,800 --> 01:06:24,680
the screen, they're molecules 
and atoms, real, real stuff. 

1028
01:06:24,760 --> 01:06:30,720
So I've I've been pounding the 
the table on the sector for for 

1029
01:06:30,720 --> 01:06:34,520
some time. 
Probably my favorite sector 

1030
01:06:34,840 --> 01:06:37,960
market right now. 
What inning are we in? 

1031
01:06:38,840 --> 01:06:44,840
People love innings. 
I mean, I would say second, 

1032
01:06:46,680 --> 01:06:48,880
third, second, third in maybe 
second. 

1033
01:06:50,280 --> 01:06:52,280
You haven't had the, you haven't
had the IPO, you haven't had no 

1034
01:06:52,280 --> 01:06:54,680
funding come back, you've had no
IP OS come back, you've had 

1035
01:06:54,680 --> 01:07:00,520
nothing. 
So you've had one blockbuster 

1036
01:07:00,520 --> 01:07:04,080
readout, which is pure and a 
couple other like decent data of

1037
01:07:04,080 --> 01:07:06,000
drugs. 
Like what, what froth are we 

1038
01:07:06,000 --> 01:07:09,600
talking about here? 
Like do we have valuations at 

1039
01:07:09,880 --> 01:07:12,520
levels that are that might 
create a little bit of a 

1040
01:07:12,520 --> 01:07:15,600
drawdown? 
Yeah, yes, yeah, their IRRS have

1041
01:07:15,600 --> 01:07:21,200
changed for sure. 
But there's also companies that 

1042
01:07:21,200 --> 01:07:24,440
have that are still trading very
cheap, right? 

1043
01:07:24,440 --> 01:07:26,080
There's still catalysts to be 
had. 

1044
01:07:27,800 --> 01:07:32,360
So I think it's pretty pretty 
early here still and that and 

1045
01:07:32,360 --> 01:07:36,640
the function for that is because
science takes so long takes such

1046
01:07:36,640 --> 01:07:40,000
a long time to discover a drug 
right like it. 

1047
01:07:40,040 --> 01:07:45,040
Besides it took a decade plus 
over 1520 years a blue rock. 

1048
01:07:45,280 --> 01:07:46,800
OK. 
That's another partner of their 

1049
01:07:46,800 --> 01:07:53,840
point that is going to probably 
go up for approval in 20/28/27 

1050
01:07:54,360 --> 01:07:59,040
and that started in 2012. 
So talk about 15-16 years and to

1051
01:07:59,040 --> 01:08:02,240
get for that, to get a 
commercial that would take maybe

1052
01:08:02,400 --> 01:08:04,840
18 years. 
So it takes a very long time for

1053
01:08:04,840 --> 01:08:06,240
these things to actually come to
market. 

1054
01:08:07,000 --> 01:08:09,880
So that there's another reason 
for that is just the time, and 

1055
01:08:10,840 --> 01:08:12,040
hence why it'd be a little 
earlier. 

1056
01:08:17,729 --> 01:08:20,370
No, you went mute there at the 
at the end. 

1057
01:08:20,450 --> 01:08:23,760
I don't know if your your mic 
may have caught it, but you went

1058
01:08:23,760 --> 01:08:26,279
out for me. 
Can you hear me now? 

1059
01:08:26,680 --> 01:08:28,040
Yeah. 
Yeah, OK. 

1060
01:08:29,160 --> 01:08:33,520
Now you have Verizon again, 
Interesting, man. 

1061
01:08:33,800 --> 01:08:36,680
I don't know, It's it's wild. 
I mean, I know nothing about, 

1062
01:08:37,120 --> 01:08:39,760
you know, these, these companies
for real. 

1063
01:08:39,760 --> 01:08:44,319
But I do pay attention when you 
talk, and I like What do you 

1064
01:08:44,319 --> 01:08:46,800
think something like Personalis 
would trade for in the private 

1065
01:08:46,800 --> 01:08:51,600
markets? 
Oh, like a couple billion. 

1066
01:08:51,960 --> 01:08:53,600
Right. 
Yeah. 

1067
01:08:54,680 --> 01:08:57,560
Like some of these things I have
famous last words, but I look at

1068
01:08:57,560 --> 01:08:59,840
the valuations that they trade 
at and I'm just like, man, if 

1069
01:08:59,840 --> 01:09:02,080
this is private, it would be 
quite a bit higher. 

1070
01:09:02,080 --> 01:09:03,600
Now. 
I asked myself, OK, well, why 

1071
01:09:03,600 --> 01:09:07,160
doesn't somebody buy it out? 
That I don't have a great answer

1072
01:09:07,160 --> 01:09:11,520
for, but maybe the answer is the
shareholders aren't willing to 

1073
01:09:11,520 --> 01:09:12,279
sell. 
I don't know. 

1074
01:09:12,279 --> 01:09:14,880
What would you say to that? 
Like why aren't these just 

1075
01:09:14,880 --> 01:09:16,640
getting taken over at these 
valuations? 

1076
01:09:17,040 --> 01:09:18,800
Like, I always get asked this 
question, right? 

1077
01:09:19,359 --> 01:09:22,760
It's like, oh, you know, clear 
point at 7 bucks or 5 bucks. 

1078
01:09:22,880 --> 01:09:26,040
Oh, it's take out candidate, 06 
bucks, take out candidate, 7 

1079
01:09:26,040 --> 01:09:28,279
bucks take out candidate, 9 
bucks take out candidate. 

1080
01:09:28,600 --> 01:09:29,920
Everything's a take out 
candidate, right? 

1081
01:09:31,040 --> 01:09:35,520
You'd be like this this this 
fallacy, this mindset has to 

1082
01:09:35,840 --> 01:09:39,840
leave people, OK, and for a 
number of reasons. 

1083
01:09:40,240 --> 01:09:44,680
One, nobody is going to stick 
their neck on the line to buy 

1084
01:09:45,000 --> 01:09:51,120
any of these optical shit codes 
at low valuations at a Corp dev 

1085
01:09:51,279 --> 01:09:57,280
of a Fortune 500 or S&P 500 
company 00 appetite, OK? 

1086
01:09:57,280 --> 01:09:59,680
Like let's put that out there 
right now, OK? 

1087
01:10:00,000 --> 01:10:03,520
Medtronic could have bought 
Intuit of Surgical in 2002 at a 

1088
01:10:03,520 --> 01:10:05,680
$50 million valuation and they 
didn't. 

1089
01:10:06,040 --> 01:10:08,200
They miss it all the time and 
they're not going to go put the 

1090
01:10:08,200 --> 01:10:10,800
neck of the line, right? 
That's number one. 

1091
01:10:10,840 --> 01:10:15,200
Number 2 is a lot of these 
stories get complicated, right? 

1092
01:10:15,200 --> 01:10:17,120
Twist has got a bunch of 
businesses in there. 

1093
01:10:17,720 --> 01:10:21,960
You know, Clear Point isn't a 
neurosurgery business, is a drug

1094
01:10:21,960 --> 01:10:24,160
delivery business. 
I don't know what this thing is,

1095
01:10:24,600 --> 01:10:27,800
so I'm not going to touch it. 
Point .3. 

1096
01:10:28,920 --> 01:10:31,880
But point 2.3, they're not 
profitable, right? 

1097
01:10:32,240 --> 01:10:34,720
You and I see them as they will 
be profitable. 

1098
01:10:34,720 --> 01:10:38,800
You and I might say the income 
statement will reflect, but no 

1099
01:10:38,800 --> 01:10:42,840
one's touching it before then. 
If they were to consider it and 

1100
01:10:43,160 --> 01:10:45,720
if they wanted to consider it at
a time when they are profitable,

1101
01:10:46,000 --> 01:10:47,800
they're not selling until a pig 
is fat. 

1102
01:10:47,960 --> 01:10:52,600
They're not going to sell until 
they fill a gap today, right. 

1103
01:10:52,600 --> 01:11:00,120
And so for, for, for, let's say,
you know, like a, like A twist 

1104
01:11:00,120 --> 01:11:02,840
or a clear point or whoever 
personalized, unless you have 

1105
01:11:02,840 --> 01:11:06,040
needy revenues of like a couple 
billion dollars and you're 

1106
01:11:06,040 --> 01:11:10,080
shielding a gap for thermal, 
they're not going to bother with

1107
01:11:10,160 --> 01:11:11,440
you. 
Like they got their own 

1108
01:11:11,440 --> 01:11:14,480
problems. 
They got big businesses, big 

1109
01:11:14,480 --> 01:11:18,560
bureaucracies in there where 
they have to solve their own 

1110
01:11:18,560 --> 01:11:21,160
problems. 
They don't have the appetite to 

1111
01:11:21,160 --> 01:11:23,960
digest an M&A. 
And the other piece is, you 

1112
01:11:24,160 --> 01:11:27,120
know, these guys are generating 
cash and especially big pharma, 

1113
01:11:27,120 --> 01:11:29,680
let's say, and this is where I 
think we got greedy. 

1114
01:11:30,120 --> 01:11:35,080
They're parked with trillions of
cash into 5% or not maybe 4 1/2%

1115
01:11:35,080 --> 01:11:39,960
yielding T-bills risk free. 
Squeeze the juice a little more 

1116
01:11:40,120 --> 01:11:41,960
until it goes a little until it 
goes dry. 

1117
01:11:43,440 --> 01:11:46,280
And by then maybe we'll look at 
it because we can always buy 

1118
01:11:47,240 --> 01:11:50,240
Personalis at 3-4, five, $6 
billion. 

1119
01:11:50,640 --> 01:11:53,280
But this is where the 
opportunity is for smaller 

1120
01:11:53,280 --> 01:11:57,560
investors or funds. 
Is this inflecting re rate of 

1121
01:11:57,560 --> 01:12:01,560
these companies during a period 
of time in the capital cycle 

1122
01:12:01,560 --> 01:12:06,080
where you can make, you know, 
20-30 forty extra money and then

1123
01:12:06,080 --> 01:12:09,120
they'll that might sell, but not
before. 

1124
01:12:09,360 --> 01:12:12,800
But this policy has to go. 
You have pure place out there 

1125
01:12:13,240 --> 01:12:18,600
like a Max site or Mirvaq pure 
place, meaning bolt on today 

1126
01:12:19,080 --> 01:12:20,120
that are not going to be bought 
out. 

1127
01:12:20,520 --> 01:12:22,760
You have Med tech companies not 
getting bought out. 

1128
01:12:23,360 --> 01:12:25,440
You have biotechs out there that
are barely getting bought out. 

1129
01:12:27,720 --> 01:12:35,600
So, you know, this is not, you 
know, the Valley investor always

1130
01:12:35,600 --> 01:12:38,600
thinks, well, this how could the
market offer something so cheap 

1131
01:12:38,600 --> 01:12:41,640
in this sector and it's offered 
in any sector it's take up 

1132
01:12:41,640 --> 01:12:44,320
candidate. 
That's not how it works here. 

1133
01:12:45,040 --> 01:12:47,320
These things don't get bought 
out cheap, they get bought out 

1134
01:12:47,320 --> 01:12:54,120
of expenses. 
So yeah, that's sort of my my 

1135
01:12:54,120 --> 01:12:57,360
view on that on that whole 
piece, like clear point is too 

1136
01:12:57,360 --> 01:12:59,480
messy. 
It'll go to 10 billion before it

1137
01:12:59,480 --> 01:13:03,920
gets bought out and then maybe 
someone will take a look at it. 

1138
01:13:03,960 --> 01:13:06,920
So yeah, maybe it feels a cap 
here and it'll overpay. 

1139
01:13:06,920 --> 01:13:13,720
So that's my view on buyouts and
emanate in all space. 

1140
01:13:14,200 --> 01:13:17,360
I think that makes sense. 
The only, the only part that 

1141
01:13:17,360 --> 01:13:23,280
doesn't square to me is why if I
ran like a private equity or a 

1142
01:13:23,280 --> 01:13:27,120
late stage VC, why I wouldn't 
consider maybe taking these out.

1143
01:13:27,120 --> 01:13:30,760
But certainly from the from the 
bigger players to your point, 

1144
01:13:30,760 --> 01:13:38,880
like I think the risk to career 
is probably lower if you overpay

1145
01:13:38,880 --> 01:13:45,800
for an established technology as
opposed to buying unproven 

1146
01:13:45,800 --> 01:13:47,880
things and then not having them 
work out. 

1147
01:13:47,880 --> 01:13:52,840
It it's it seems to me you're 
putting your career more at risk

1148
01:13:53,600 --> 01:13:56,840
by buying a science product 
project because that's not 

1149
01:13:56,840 --> 01:13:58,960
really why people own that 
stock, right? 

1150
01:13:58,960 --> 01:14:01,520
People own the big stocks 
because they don't want the 

1151
01:14:01,520 --> 01:14:05,920
science projects. 
Yeah. 

1152
01:14:07,080 --> 01:14:10,200
And your point like you end up 
you got M&A, it takes a bunch of

1153
01:14:11,080 --> 01:14:13,840
takes a bunch of your time and 
it's not even going to move the 

1154
01:14:13,840 --> 01:14:16,080
income statement in the next 
three years. 

1155
01:14:16,080 --> 01:14:19,440
So like, what are you doing? 
Yeah, right. 

1156
01:14:19,600 --> 01:14:22,760
And the other thing is a lot of 
these companies at a smaller 

1157
01:14:22,760 --> 01:14:28,240
level, there's a lot of control 
insider and I would say very 

1158
01:14:28,240 --> 01:14:31,280
high end retail funds and they 
would just vote no anyway. 

1159
01:14:31,960 --> 01:14:38,320
But to your point on the private
equity VC side, VCs are so they 

1160
01:14:38,320 --> 01:14:42,320
have such a food coma, I call 
it, oh, their portfolio, they're

1161
01:14:42,320 --> 01:14:46,560
just waiting to unload bags. 
There is no appetite to buy 

1162
01:14:46,720 --> 01:14:50,040
cheap stuff right now. 
Zero, because they got their own

1163
01:14:50,040 --> 01:14:51,920
investment that they've made 
that they want to get rid of. 

1164
01:14:53,160 --> 01:14:57,080
And that's, that's that's a set 
with part of the bubble forming 

1165
01:14:57,080 --> 01:14:58,440
that you need. 
That hasn't happened yet. 

1166
01:14:58,480 --> 01:15:01,840
You need VCs to exit to then 
recycle their cash. 

1167
01:15:02,680 --> 01:15:04,240
That's not happening right now. 
They're not exiting. 

1168
01:15:05,720 --> 01:15:09,600
And the only way that they can 
really exit is again, you need 

1169
01:15:09,840 --> 01:15:14,040
lower interest rates or 
blockbuster drugs approved to 

1170
01:15:14,040 --> 01:15:15,720
say, hey, there's a winner here,
we have a win. 

1171
01:15:16,080 --> 01:15:17,600
Now we can start unloading, 
unloading, unloading. 

1172
01:15:17,600 --> 01:15:20,920
And you send them to change. 
That's slowly starting, but you 

1173
01:15:20,920 --> 01:15:24,960
still you haven't seen it. 
So that's the other piece in 

1174
01:15:24,960 --> 01:15:31,920
terms of private equity, man, 
this is not this isn't private 

1175
01:15:31,920 --> 01:15:36,520
equity Forte. 
It is, you know, think of it 

1176
01:15:36,520 --> 01:15:39,120
like a railway. 
You're built a railway. 

1177
01:15:40,000 --> 01:15:43,760
It's it's not there's no cash to
take out of it's inflection of 

1178
01:15:43,760 --> 01:15:47,200
an income statement, right? 
It's it's you need to build out 

1179
01:15:47,200 --> 01:15:50,120
the business or you need to wait
for a catalyst to hit. 

1180
01:15:50,680 --> 01:15:53,800
And like, what does some guy KKR
know anything about this shit? 

1181
01:15:54,400 --> 01:15:57,920
Sorry for my language, but like 
they don't And so like they're 

1182
01:15:57,920 --> 01:16:00,360
going to look at it from a. 
Financial perspective, I would 

1183
01:16:00,360 --> 01:16:02,880
think some healthcare private 
equity fund would know 

1184
01:16:02,880 --> 01:16:07,840
something. 
It would, but but my point is 

1185
01:16:07,840 --> 01:16:12,520
that it's business building and 
cash needing versus cash 

1186
01:16:12,520 --> 01:16:16,040
extracting. 
And you know sometimes you're 

1187
01:16:16,040 --> 01:16:18,000
going to have to do a race 
that's smart. 

1188
01:16:18,000 --> 01:16:21,920
You're going to have to build 
out the business and maybe 

1189
01:16:21,920 --> 01:16:26,640
switch facilities or spend a 
bunch of CapEx and that appetite

1190
01:16:27,080 --> 01:16:29,400
in a higher interest rate 
environment wasn't there for 

1191
01:16:29,400 --> 01:16:34,080
private equity. 
Now, you might get some 

1192
01:16:34,080 --> 01:16:36,800
companies get bought that are 
distressed. 

1193
01:16:37,400 --> 01:16:39,560
That's different. 
You might get private equity, 

1194
01:16:39,960 --> 01:16:43,640
get into the distress mode, you 
know, maybe a device company 

1195
01:16:43,640 --> 01:16:47,360
that's trading for less than a 
dollar share on the NASDAQ and 

1196
01:16:47,360 --> 01:16:51,080
it's tired of being public and 
they've cut as much as they 

1197
01:16:51,080 --> 01:16:53,280
could and they're still not 
inflecting. 

1198
01:16:53,280 --> 01:16:57,120
And there needs to be some 
pressure there that private 

1199
01:16:57,120 --> 01:16:58,920
equity might get into something 
like that. 

1200
01:17:00,040 --> 01:17:03,280
But the business builders, like 
Clearpoint's a business builder,

1201
01:17:04,000 --> 01:17:05,640
you know, they had to invest in 
a facility. 

1202
01:17:05,760 --> 01:17:09,320
They had to switch, expand their
manufacturing and invest in 

1203
01:17:09,320 --> 01:17:11,200
salespeople. 
Then you know, they they build 

1204
01:17:11,200 --> 01:17:16,400
the rails to then get the cures.
And yeah, these other companies 

1205
01:17:16,400 --> 01:17:21,120
approve. 
I think those are very difficult

1206
01:17:21,120 --> 01:17:22,760
for private equity to get 
involved. 

1207
01:17:22,760 --> 01:17:24,600
But private equity is never 
going to get involved in someone

1208
01:17:24,600 --> 01:17:27,920
Personalis before it catalyst. 
Now Personalis gets a 

1209
01:17:27,920 --> 01:17:32,520
reimbursement and then maybe you
have a cycle turn again and they

1210
01:17:32,520 --> 01:17:35,760
have real revenues. 
They're profitable and it's it's

1211
01:17:35,760 --> 01:17:39,600
a really cheap valuation. 
It's the stress maybe maybe 

1212
01:17:39,600 --> 01:17:44,920
probably gets involved, but it's
just not an area that they 

1213
01:17:44,920 --> 01:17:51,080
usually gravitate towards on 
tool side especially so. 

1214
01:17:54,760 --> 01:17:58,760
I would be remiss if I didn't 
bring up Max site and Maravai, 

1215
01:17:58,760 --> 01:18:00,640
even if they are a bit like 
Voldemort. 

1216
01:18:01,840 --> 01:18:04,840
What it you know, if people go 
back and listen to our first 

1217
01:18:04,840 --> 01:18:07,640
conversation, they're they're 
going to hear those names thrown

1218
01:18:07,640 --> 01:18:13,040
in with clear point one. 
I I would suggest that this is a

1219
01:18:13,040 --> 01:18:14,840
bit of a slugging percentage 
game. 

1220
01:18:14,840 --> 01:18:18,400
So even if you equal weighted 
the three, the baskets still 

1221
01:18:18,400 --> 01:18:21,640
doing OK. 
But what what happened there 

1222
01:18:22,080 --> 01:18:25,720
that that might have people 
scratching their heads? 

1223
01:18:28,000 --> 01:18:34,360
I so for Mac site is if they 
spend too much money, so they 

1224
01:18:34,360 --> 01:18:37,400
spend a lot on expanding their 
facility and expanding their 

1225
01:18:37,400 --> 01:18:42,640
services and doing M&A. 
And even though they have this 

1226
01:18:42,840 --> 01:18:46,840
very lucrative royalty for their
first drug ever that was 

1227
01:18:46,840 --> 01:18:52,520
approved on the Max site 
equipment and solution, they 

1228
01:18:52,520 --> 01:18:56,680
need to cut CapEx and OpEx 
because the way they're growing 

1229
01:18:57,200 --> 01:19:02,800
coming out of this drop cycle 
isn't enough to give any 

1230
01:19:02,800 --> 01:19:05,360
business value given the 
considering the burn. 

1231
01:19:06,400 --> 01:19:10,880
And so Maxon has a cost, the 
cost problem. 

1232
01:19:11,040 --> 01:19:12,920
So if they get their costs in 
order, yeah, this thing will 

1233
01:19:12,920 --> 01:19:15,920
reread violently as well, right?
Because again, income statement 

1234
01:19:15,920 --> 01:19:20,800
inflection, I suspect they've 
heard that and they will find 

1235
01:19:20,800 --> 01:19:23,200
religion soon, but they just 
haven't found the religion yet. 

1236
01:19:23,600 --> 01:19:26,480
Mervite. 
And the other thing piece of 

1237
01:19:26,480 --> 01:19:32,280
Maxite is it's a very specific 
modality within this bio bio 

1238
01:19:32,280 --> 01:19:37,200
life science ecosystem. 
It is, you know, electroporation

1239
01:19:37,200 --> 01:19:39,440
solutions for ex vivo cell and 
gene therapy. 

1240
01:19:39,440 --> 01:19:43,160
Like it is the front. 
That's like an esoteric area, 

1241
01:19:43,520 --> 01:19:46,080
right? 
And a lot of their a lot of 

1242
01:19:46,080 --> 01:19:50,080
their customers are early stage.
Now, I might be early on that, 

1243
01:19:50,080 --> 01:19:52,240
but I don't think I'm going to 
be wrong on it. 

1244
01:19:52,440 --> 01:19:56,320
Like I think that's going to 
inflect violently as well 

1245
01:19:56,360 --> 01:19:59,240
because if they don't cut their 
costs, someone else will. 

1246
01:20:00,560 --> 01:20:03,800
So I, I think that's more of a 
take out candidate than than a 

1247
01:20:03,800 --> 01:20:08,160
lot of other companies because 
it is a pureplay and there's, 

1248
01:20:08,160 --> 01:20:09,400
there's a valuable business 
there. 

1249
01:20:09,840 --> 01:20:13,960
In theory there should be Mara 
by similar, similar story, 

1250
01:20:14,600 --> 01:20:19,360
right, But they're very specific
to mRNA solutions. 

1251
01:20:19,600 --> 01:20:24,400
So again, esoteric OpEx overhang
capacity, underutilized 

1252
01:20:24,920 --> 01:20:27,440
management that has some 
significant missteps. 

1253
01:20:27,440 --> 01:20:31,520
You had private equity overhang 
just annihilates the equity. 

1254
01:20:32,240 --> 01:20:36,920
Again, it's been a little bit of
a run and I think it will end up

1255
01:20:38,040 --> 01:20:42,000
creating value. 
It just takes time like those 

1256
01:20:42,000 --> 01:20:45,400
two need more time, clear point.
On the other hand, it's a bit 

1257
01:20:45,400 --> 01:20:48,560
more diversified. 
You had drugs that were later 

1258
01:20:48,560 --> 01:20:51,320
stage on the clinical trial 
spectrum, like they were just 

1259
01:20:51,320 --> 01:20:53,400
about to be approved or have 
been approved. 

1260
01:20:54,360 --> 01:20:58,200
You have the diversification of 
a neurosurgery business. 

1261
01:20:58,480 --> 01:21:00,800
If you have brain cancer today, 
you're going to go get surgery 

1262
01:21:00,800 --> 01:21:03,040
for it. 
You're not going to stop, right?

1263
01:21:03,040 --> 01:21:07,600
And so you had a staple like 
diversifier that's that 

1264
01:21:07,640 --> 01:21:12,440
backstopped a lot of any other 
issues that could have gone on 

1265
01:21:12,440 --> 01:21:14,240
with just being a clinical 
service business. 

1266
01:21:15,000 --> 01:21:16,560
And by the way, all those 
clinical services you're 

1267
01:21:16,560 --> 01:21:18,920
providing were from much later 
stage companies, companies that 

1268
01:21:18,920 --> 01:21:21,600
are about to get approved like 
unique Cure, right? 

1269
01:21:22,320 --> 01:21:27,280
So those are the two major 
differences between the two, 

1270
01:21:27,600 --> 01:21:31,560
between the three companies. 
I think Maravite can get 

1271
01:21:31,560 --> 01:21:35,800
incredibly torque like I think 
it can absolutely RIP, can be 

1272
01:21:35,800 --> 01:21:38,400
multiples of what it is today. 
I think it's up the other day, 

1273
01:21:38,400 --> 01:21:41,160
isn't it? 
Maybe not. 

1274
01:21:42,080 --> 01:21:46,000
I mean, I think I think it's 
right to Rock'n'roll, same with 

1275
01:21:46,000 --> 01:21:50,960
Maxite, but they're again, 
they're usually the later ones 

1276
01:21:50,960 --> 01:21:55,720
to move because of those factors
I mentioned on finding religion 

1277
01:21:55,760 --> 01:22:02,200
plus esoteric space plus earlier
stage sectors. 

1278
01:22:03,200 --> 01:22:05,160
That makes sense. 
Yeah, it's it's up a bunch in 

1279
01:22:05,160 --> 01:22:08,240
the past six months, but still 
down 56% year to date. 

1280
01:22:08,240 --> 01:22:13,320
They got it, but it ran right or
I guess down 40% year to date, 

1281
01:22:13,440 --> 01:22:18,920
down 56 on a one year. 
That's interesting, man. 

1282
01:22:20,200 --> 01:22:24,040
These are interesting times. 
It's all duration. 

1283
01:22:24,040 --> 01:22:27,480
It's you know, you might be 
people say, well, there's stuff 

1284
01:22:28,080 --> 01:22:30,880
you might be early, but it's the
same as being wrong. 

1285
01:22:30,880 --> 01:22:32,040
Well, I was really unclear 
point. 

1286
01:22:32,040 --> 01:22:34,400
I don't think I was wrong there.
So I thought, what's your 

1287
01:22:34,400 --> 01:22:36,440
duration right? 
Like if you have a better 

1288
01:22:36,440 --> 01:22:41,760
duration this they will, they're
ready to go, right? 

1289
01:22:41,760 --> 01:22:44,320
And and their solutions are 
valuable. 

1290
01:22:45,360 --> 01:22:49,240
So I think they're, they're the 
2 ones that I bet or have bet, 

1291
01:22:49,240 --> 01:22:52,960
but I think they're the highest 
exposure to M&A are those two. 

1292
01:22:56,880 --> 01:22:59,280
Well, there you have it Did So 
what else? 

1293
01:22:59,280 --> 01:23:00,840
What? 
What have I missed as an 

1294
01:23:00,840 --> 01:23:02,800
interviewer? 
What have what have I done wrong

1295
01:23:02,800 --> 01:23:04,680
here? 
Or have we covered things? 

1296
01:23:06,800 --> 01:23:10,440
I mean, look, we, we did a good 
postmortem on our preview on our

1297
01:23:10,440 --> 01:23:13,440
first episode and talked about 
the names that we talked about 

1298
01:23:13,440 --> 01:23:17,280
there. 
I, I, like I said, like I, I 

1299
01:23:17,280 --> 01:23:19,840
still think it's pretty early 
despite the violence that we've 

1300
01:23:19,840 --> 01:23:22,120
seen. 
Can we take a breather? 

1301
01:23:22,120 --> 01:23:25,600
Yeah. 
But, and could we retest some of

1302
01:23:25,600 --> 01:23:27,200
the lows that some of these 
companies have seen? 

1303
01:23:27,680 --> 01:23:29,920
Unlikely for Clearpoint. 
I think they've changed the 

1304
01:23:29,920 --> 01:23:32,760
game, but maybe you might get a 
draw down with if the market 

1305
01:23:32,760 --> 01:23:36,600
sells just generally across the 
life science sector. 

1306
01:23:37,040 --> 01:23:43,920
But I think people are going to 
be shocked with the the science 

1307
01:23:43,920 --> 01:23:48,280
that's coming out. 
A cure is one thing, but I think

1308
01:23:48,280 --> 01:23:55,480
you'll get more more blockbuster
level game changing drugs this 

1309
01:23:55,920 --> 01:24:02,520
biotech bowl than previous. 
And I think it's going to last 

1310
01:24:02,520 --> 01:24:05,960
longer than people realize. 
So that's one of those of my 

1311
01:24:05,960 --> 01:24:10,080
closing thoughts on the macro. 
You know, I, I would say that 

1312
01:24:10,080 --> 01:24:11,720
it's a, it's a tough space to be
in. 

1313
01:24:11,800 --> 01:24:16,000
Be very careful like any 
obviously like any sector, but 

1314
01:24:16,920 --> 01:24:19,680
it's not a bad time to start 
looking at the space if you 

1315
01:24:19,680 --> 01:24:24,240
haven't as a generalist like my 
my closing thoughts. 

1316
01:24:24,640 --> 01:24:26,200
Yeah. 
Well, this is also a sector that

1317
01:24:26,200 --> 01:24:29,440
could make sense to hire out 
because as I understand that the

1318
01:24:29,440 --> 01:24:33,600
XBI is a pretty poorly 
constructed index by by sort of 

1319
01:24:34,640 --> 01:24:41,400
definition and the the 
opportunities are likely there. 

1320
01:24:41,400 --> 01:24:43,440
There's almost certainly 
opportunities here. 

1321
01:24:45,320 --> 01:24:49,080
Yes, that's right. 
And I don't think the XBI has 

1322
01:24:49,080 --> 01:24:53,200
equal crossed its highs like all
time highs like it's still I 

1323
01:24:53,200 --> 01:24:58,560
think the all time highs is what
170 bucks, 200 bucks, 175 bucks.

1324
01:24:59,920 --> 01:25:03,000
So you still got ways to go, but
I wouldn't be surprised if we 

1325
01:25:03,000 --> 01:25:05,200
took a breather here. 
I think we need a breather. 

1326
01:25:05,200 --> 01:25:06,320
I think everybody needs a 
breather. 

1327
01:25:06,920 --> 01:25:09,880
Yeah, well, yeah, the whole 
market could use a breather 

1328
01:25:09,880 --> 01:25:12,080
band. 
Yeah, yeah, yeah. 

1329
01:25:12,520 --> 01:25:14,600
I'll tell you it was wild on 
Clear Point. 

1330
01:25:15,280 --> 01:25:18,440
I sold. 
Now it's April and it's not the 

1331
01:25:18,440 --> 01:25:21,560
whole the whole position, but 
for a portion of my position, I 

1332
01:25:21,560 --> 01:25:26,200
sold the April 30 fives for 4:50
a call. 

1333
01:25:27,320 --> 01:25:32,040
And I mean, when we talked about
it, it traded for 5:50. 

1334
01:25:34,520 --> 01:25:36,000
That's kind of wild to think 
about. 

1335
01:25:37,520 --> 01:25:43,760
Yeah, yeah. 80% of your basis 
back on sell on a call for six 

1336
01:25:43,760 --> 01:25:47,600
months and worst case scenario 
happens you get taken out of 

1337
01:25:47,600 --> 01:25:50,400
3939 fifty. 
Like that's not the end of the 

1338
01:25:50,400 --> 01:25:57,080
world. 
Yeah, it's kind of wild. 

1339
01:25:57,960 --> 01:25:59,760
Yeah. 
It's not tax efficient, right? 

1340
01:25:59,760 --> 01:26:02,440
You got to pay ordinary on that.
But there there are bigger 

1341
01:26:02,440 --> 01:26:06,240
problems. 
There are bigger problems, you 

1342
01:26:06,240 --> 01:26:09,320
know, I feel like we're entering
a phase of first world problems.

1343
01:26:10,120 --> 01:26:12,720
Yeah. 
Well, yeah, hopeful. 

1344
01:26:12,720 --> 01:26:15,640
Hopefully you're correct. 
Some of my concern about where 

1345
01:26:15,640 --> 01:26:20,000
America's going is third world 
problems, but perhaps I have. 

1346
01:26:20,920 --> 01:26:24,120
I see the situation incorrectly 
and I am hopeful that I do. 

1347
01:26:26,360 --> 01:26:29,840
Yeah, look, I, I'm a little 
worried about gold and like 

1348
01:26:29,840 --> 01:26:34,160
these, you know, a guy, a really
smart trader who's been doing 

1349
01:26:34,160 --> 01:26:37,840
this for 35 years once told me 
once you start seeing gold and 

1350
01:26:37,840 --> 01:26:40,120
silver, start puking upwards, 
like get out. 

1351
01:26:41,240 --> 01:26:43,640
Right, Right. 
That's what I'm seeing now. 

1352
01:26:44,840 --> 01:26:47,440
Yeah, but I don't know what you 
go to unless you go to gold and 

1353
01:26:47,440 --> 01:26:49,680
silver. 
And gold looks so extended that 

1354
01:26:49,800 --> 01:26:54,760
it's like tough to get in here, 
even if it's the right move. 

1355
01:26:55,600 --> 01:26:57,480
No, I think you got to get out. 
He's like, if you see them 

1356
01:26:57,480 --> 01:27:01,240
puking, get out, get out of the 
market, get out of gold, get out

1357
01:27:01,240 --> 01:27:06,480
silver, get out everything. 
But when I look at some other 

1358
01:27:06,480 --> 01:27:09,800
areas that have been absolutely 
crushed, you know, I'm slowly 

1359
01:27:09,800 --> 01:27:12,720
looking at the energy markets or
like energy services companies, 

1360
01:27:13,600 --> 01:27:17,360
but again, those don't perform 
as well on a recession. 

1361
01:27:17,400 --> 01:27:21,320
Biotic performs well on a 
recession or some, you know, 

1362
01:27:21,400 --> 01:27:23,560
Black Swan event because they're
so idiosyncratic. 

1363
01:27:24,040 --> 01:27:26,960
So I just, I don't, I don't know
where you go either. 

1364
01:27:26,960 --> 01:27:29,360
Safety has been selling off. 
Like if you look at companies 

1365
01:27:29,360 --> 01:27:32,120
like United Health and 
Constellation Software and 

1366
01:27:32,120 --> 01:27:34,240
Dollar General in the staples, 
yadda, yadda. 

1367
01:27:34,240 --> 01:27:37,320
Like they all have been selling 
like crazy, right? 

1368
01:27:37,320 --> 01:27:40,280
That's usually a sign of OK, 
like safety's getting cheaper 

1369
01:27:40,280 --> 01:27:42,840
and risk on its year. 
And at the same time we have 

1370
01:27:42,840 --> 01:27:45,880
gold and silver mooning. 
Something doesn't feel right 

1371
01:27:45,880 --> 01:27:48,000
here, right? 
It feels like you're, there's 

1372
01:27:48,000 --> 01:27:49,320
something that's going to 
happen. 

1373
01:27:50,800 --> 01:27:52,160
I again, I don't play those 
games. 

1374
01:27:52,160 --> 01:27:55,400
I don't know for sure. 
That's why I think it's always 

1375
01:27:55,400 --> 01:27:57,640
important to be in things that 
you're comfortable in or you 

1376
01:27:57,640 --> 01:28:02,240
think the downside is low. 
And we're like, you know, you 

1377
01:28:02,240 --> 01:28:04,080
might not be dead money for a 
real long time. 

1378
01:28:04,080 --> 01:28:06,400
And that's why valuation 
valuation matters. 

1379
01:28:06,400 --> 01:28:10,400
That's why I like twist. 
There's an example where for me,

1380
01:28:10,400 --> 01:28:16,360
I think the worst is like flat 
to up, like versus, you know, if

1381
01:28:16,360 --> 01:28:21,240
you're parked in something 
that's 50 times sales, it's you 

1382
01:28:21,240 --> 01:28:25,920
got a high downside. 
Yeah, well, if you do flat to up

1383
01:28:25,920 --> 01:28:33,200
for your entire life that that 
works out that that's kind of 

1384
01:28:33,200 --> 01:28:38,560
the game, right. 
Right, but it needs patience 

1385
01:28:38,560 --> 01:28:40,600
too. 
So yeah, no doubt. 

1386
01:28:41,760 --> 01:28:43,520
And you can't. 
I mean, if every if anybody knew

1387
01:28:43,520 --> 01:28:47,800
the path then, then, then you'd 
be retired on the beach. 

1388
01:28:49,720 --> 01:28:51,520
That's right. 
That's right. 

1389
01:28:53,280 --> 01:28:54,800
Well. 
We'll see. 

1390
01:28:54,800 --> 01:28:56,400
I look forward to doing another 
follow up. 

1391
01:28:56,400 --> 01:29:01,520
May may it be another two years 
of you know, may the next to be 

1392
01:29:01,520 --> 01:29:04,880
like the last two. 
Hey, who knows, maybe it's not 

1393
01:29:04,880 --> 01:29:09,120
biotech, maybe it's maybe at 
this point in three years we're 

1394
01:29:09,120 --> 01:29:11,360
talking about AI and how it's a 
new capital cycle. 

1395
01:29:12,440 --> 01:29:16,640
Well, the, the thing that I, I 
mean, this is an emotional 

1396
01:29:16,640 --> 01:29:19,360
statement and not one that 
should impact investments at 

1397
01:29:19,360 --> 01:29:21,200
all. 
But the thing that I kind of 

1398
01:29:21,200 --> 01:29:25,440
like about the life sciences 
idea combined with AI is it does

1399
01:29:25,440 --> 01:29:31,240
make sense, sense, whatever that
word means to have like a more 

1400
01:29:31,240 --> 01:29:35,920
personalized medicine. 
And, and the idea that we're 

1401
01:29:35,920 --> 01:29:42,440
going to be able to analyze so 
much data and, and still treat 

1402
01:29:42,440 --> 01:29:46,880
everyone as we do now makes like
no sense to me, right? 

1403
01:29:46,880 --> 01:29:50,960
The, the, it, it feels to me 
that something must change. 

1404
01:29:52,240 --> 01:29:54,600
And, and it already is. 
I mean, GLP ones have been a 

1405
01:29:54,600 --> 01:29:56,880
massive improvement in people's 
lives. 

1406
01:29:58,040 --> 01:30:01,160
Some may not be, but I think on 
average, they're probably a good

1407
01:30:01,160 --> 01:30:04,400
thing. 
And the, the personalized 

1408
01:30:04,400 --> 01:30:07,600
medicine and, and the ability to
sort through data is one of 

1409
01:30:07,600 --> 01:30:12,240
those things that I, I can see 
why it makes you know, why it's 

1410
01:30:12,240 --> 01:30:14,560
logical that that's where the 
world would go. 

1411
01:30:16,240 --> 01:30:17,960
Yeah, yeah. 
It just, it just takes time, 

1412
01:30:18,280 --> 01:30:19,240
right? 
It's going to take a lot of 

1413
01:30:19,240 --> 01:30:20,360
time. 
That's the issue. 

1414
01:30:21,040 --> 01:30:25,320
And so if you have exposure and 
you have the duration, you'll be

1415
01:30:25,320 --> 01:30:28,160
OK. 
We just need Sam Altman to have 

1416
01:30:28,160 --> 01:30:32,080
$13 trillion to spend on an AI 
spaceship to watch us all. 

1417
01:30:34,200 --> 01:30:36,680
Oh. 
Shit dude, these guys scare me 

1418
01:30:36,680 --> 01:30:39,200
man. 
They're like I I watch him talk 

1419
01:30:39,200 --> 01:30:41,240
and I'm like this dude is a 
psychopath. 

1420
01:30:44,040 --> 01:30:47,720
But I mean, I'm on his train so 
might as well ride it. 

1421
01:30:49,960 --> 01:30:52,360
Yeah, I mean, you haven't been 
wrong. 

1422
01:30:52,720 --> 01:30:57,760
I, I, you know, for me, I 
struggle again if I can't get 

1423
01:30:57,760 --> 01:31:00,360
deep into the weeds. 
Like I'm not. 

1424
01:31:00,880 --> 01:31:03,960
I don't know anything about 
Cindy's like the technology, 

1425
01:31:03,960 --> 01:31:09,080
the, the, the like, I don't know
anything about that ecosystem. 

1426
01:31:09,960 --> 01:31:12,640
So it's hard for me to size. 
And I guess it is they'll be the

1427
01:31:12,640 --> 01:31:13,920
same for any one in life 
science. 

1428
01:31:13,920 --> 01:31:15,720
If you don't have a deep 
knowledge of it, how can you 

1429
01:31:15,720 --> 01:31:18,520
size it? 
I feel very comfortable sizing 

1430
01:31:18,520 --> 01:31:21,640
up big time in life science, but
I struggle with something like 

1431
01:31:21,920 --> 01:31:26,920
AI or the AI ecosystem. 
And especially if something gets

1432
01:31:26,920 --> 01:31:30,080
commoditized over time, which 
there's a higher risk because 

1433
01:31:30,080 --> 01:31:32,960
you don't have much of the 
regulatory capture here, you're 

1434
01:31:32,960 --> 01:31:36,200
not really killing anyone, 
right? 

1435
01:31:37,160 --> 01:31:40,640
So let's create like some 
terminated robot. 

1436
01:31:41,120 --> 01:31:43,400
But you know, it's, it's a 
different kind of ecosystem 

1437
01:31:43,400 --> 01:31:46,480
where growth can happen at drop 
of a dime versus drugs take a 

1438
01:31:46,480 --> 01:31:49,240
long time to develop, take a 
very long time. 

1439
01:31:49,280 --> 01:31:51,480
There's a lot of research that 
goes into it. 

1440
01:31:51,520 --> 01:31:53,920
It's a lot of rules, 
regulations. 

1441
01:31:54,640 --> 01:32:01,200
So it's a it's harder for me to 
wrap my hand around the EIA 

1442
01:32:01,200 --> 01:32:02,280
stuff. 
So I think it's useful. 

1443
01:32:02,280 --> 01:32:04,040
Yes. 
I think you'll have AI replacing

1444
01:32:04,040 --> 01:32:05,440
doctors. 
No, I know. 

1445
01:32:07,080 --> 01:32:09,200
I like, do I think they'll 
supplement? 

1446
01:32:09,200 --> 01:32:13,120
Yeah, but it's we'll see where 
it froze. 

1447
01:32:13,120 --> 01:32:15,320
I, I, I can, I can. 
It's hard to predict exactly 

1448
01:32:15,320 --> 01:32:17,800
where where the stuff is. 
And the skeptics to those people

1449
01:32:17,800 --> 01:32:23,120
who think that AI won't do that 
much in, I mean, maybe, maybe 

1450
01:32:23,120 --> 01:32:26,200
again, supplement is the best, 
the best case. 

1451
01:32:26,200 --> 01:32:29,440
Scenario talked to somebody 
recently who just made an 

1452
01:32:29,440 --> 01:32:32,280
investment. 
It's AVC investment in a company

1453
01:32:32,840 --> 01:32:42,440
that they claim that the AI 
technology can help a primary 

1454
01:32:42,440 --> 01:32:47,040
practitioner see up to 20,000 
patients a year. 

1455
01:32:47,520 --> 01:32:51,640
Now it's mostly the AI spitting 
out recommendations and then the

1456
01:32:51,640 --> 01:32:54,680
practitioner just signing. 
You know, yes, this works. 

1457
01:32:55,360 --> 01:32:57,920
I don't know that I love the 
idea of that being my primary 

1458
01:32:57,920 --> 01:33:03,320
healthcare professional, but 
that was kind of wild to hear. 

1459
01:33:03,320 --> 01:33:08,360
That's a lot of patience. 
Yeah, Yeah, I think something 

1460
01:33:08,360 --> 01:33:14,160
like that could happen. 
I think giving AI too much rope 

1461
01:33:14,560 --> 01:33:18,480
is something that you want us to
be cautious of. 

1462
01:33:18,480 --> 01:33:20,800
Like, will AII itself discover a
drug? 

1463
01:33:21,720 --> 01:33:24,120
Probably not. 
But can you do it? 

1464
01:33:24,320 --> 01:33:27,800
AI trial? 
Probably not. 

1465
01:33:27,800 --> 01:33:30,800
Like it's too risky. 
Well, This is why prompting I 

1466
01:33:30,800 --> 01:33:34,560
mean I I have no idea if it if 
it matters and drug discovery, 

1467
01:33:34,560 --> 01:33:37,600
but I suspect it does. 
Like having a human look at the 

1468
01:33:37,600 --> 01:33:41,720
result prompted differently and 
be able to iterate quickly is 

1469
01:33:41,720 --> 01:33:44,040
where the marriage seems to make
the most sense. 

1470
01:33:45,640 --> 01:33:52,200
Yeah, exactly, Exactly so. 
Just trusting the Terminator 

1471
01:33:52,280 --> 01:33:55,720
didn't work out in the movie. 
No, no, that's right. 

1472
01:33:56,120 --> 01:33:57,920
And I did. 
We need, we need. 

1473
01:33:58,000 --> 01:34:00,240
What is it? 
John Connor and and Sarah? 

1474
01:34:00,240 --> 01:34:02,000
What were their names? 
I think that was them. 

1475
01:34:02,400 --> 01:34:04,720
That's what we need. 
That's right. 

1476
01:34:04,720 --> 01:34:06,920
We're going to need them soon. 
Right. 

1477
01:34:08,080 --> 01:34:10,360
Oy vey. 
Hopefully, hopefully biotech 

1478
01:34:10,360 --> 01:34:14,760
goes higher in the interim. 
Yeah, I think it'll be OK. 

1479
01:34:14,840 --> 01:34:18,520
I mean, you're going to have 
hits and stops like you're going

1480
01:34:18,520 --> 01:34:23,640
to have ups and downs. 
That's great, you know, And 

1481
01:34:23,960 --> 01:34:27,760
like, if you're not used to 
getting your nuts kicked in or 

1482
01:34:27,920 --> 01:34:33,120
punched in the stomach, then 
it's not a space for you, but it

1483
01:34:33,120 --> 01:34:37,320
can get quite uncomfortable. 
Yeah, well, you know, if you're 

1484
01:34:37,320 --> 01:34:39,520
not used to getting your nuts 
kicked in, you can also invest 

1485
01:34:39,520 --> 01:34:42,360
in telecom or or media for a 
little while. 

1486
01:34:42,560 --> 01:34:45,080
Although media has kind of 
caught a bit lace lately. 

1487
01:34:45,080 --> 01:34:47,440
It has, yeah. 
I don't know. 

1488
01:34:47,440 --> 01:34:50,200
The more the longer I pay 
attention, the longer I think 

1489
01:34:50,200 --> 01:34:53,080
every, every sector will 
eventually kick your your nuts 

1490
01:34:53,080 --> 01:34:55,480
and it's just a matter of 
whether or not you're in the 

1491
01:34:55,480 --> 01:34:57,960
right time or the wrong. 
Yeah. 

1492
01:34:58,800 --> 01:35:02,320
Yeah, yeah. 
All right dude. 

1493
01:35:02,320 --> 01:35:07,360
Well, thank you for giving the 
update and take care of 

1494
01:35:07,520 --> 01:35:09,640
yourself. 
I look forward to seeing you. 

1495
01:35:12,560 --> 01:35:14,280
I always enjoy tablets. 
Have a good one. 

1496
01:35:42,880 --> 01:36:12,120
None. 
Music.