1 00:00:00,040 --> 00:00:02,320 And welcome, everyone. Thanks so much for joining us 2 00:00:02,320 --> 00:00:04,120 for the Battery Insiders podcast. 3 00:00:04,560 --> 00:00:07,360 I'm extremely delighted today as Simon Anker, the founder and 4 00:00:07,360 --> 00:00:10,600 Chair of Battery Associates, as the host of today's episode to 5 00:00:10,600 --> 00:00:14,480 talk to Lord Turner, who is the chair of the Energy Transitions 6 00:00:14,480 --> 00:00:17,360 Commission, which is a global coalition of companies to 7 00:00:17,360 --> 00:00:20,400 identify technical and economical challenges to get to 8 00:00:20,400 --> 00:00:24,480 net zero in all the sectors. And I was very fortunate to see 9 00:00:24,480 --> 00:00:28,520 you speak in the context of one of the large OEMs out there and 10 00:00:28,520 --> 00:00:31,080 really sharing, I think, a lot of your good insights and also a 11 00:00:31,080 --> 00:00:34,680 lot of enthusiasm of what is even possible in this industry. 12 00:00:34,960 --> 00:00:36,400 And I'm really glad to speak with you today. 13 00:00:36,400 --> 00:00:37,960 Thanks for joining us. Thank you. 14 00:00:39,080 --> 00:00:40,920 Brilliant. So let's get right into it. 15 00:00:40,960 --> 00:00:42,880 I think I just touched on, you know, with your collision, you 16 00:00:42,880 --> 00:00:45,600 look at technological challenges. 17 00:00:46,400 --> 00:00:48,000 So let's talk a bit about technology. 18 00:00:48,000 --> 00:00:50,920 And of course, here's part of the battery Battery Insiders 19 00:00:50,920 --> 00:00:52,480 podcast. Of course, we're also quite 20 00:00:52,480 --> 00:00:55,640 interested in the battery side. And to maybe start on the 21 00:00:55,640 --> 00:01:00,240 technological topic, talking about cost and scalability. 22 00:01:00,240 --> 00:01:02,240 And of course, we have seen that the battery price we have 23 00:01:02,240 --> 00:01:04,640 plummeted. It's really exciting, especially 24 00:01:04,640 --> 00:01:07,960 on the stationary side as well, but also lithium iron phosphate, 25 00:01:08,200 --> 00:01:10,320 but also have topics such as sodium iron, which could still 26 00:01:10,320 --> 00:01:13,360 drive it down even further. So looking at all of these 27 00:01:13,360 --> 00:01:16,000 developments and the rapid developments and the 28 00:01:16,000 --> 00:01:19,000 possibilities of scale up, right, to tell what our levels 29 00:01:19,000 --> 00:01:22,280 of storage and what do you see as some of the bottlenecks to 30 00:01:22,280 --> 00:01:24,600 really make this happen? Supply chain, for example, the 31 00:01:24,600 --> 00:01:26,920 topic people talk about, manufacturing, anything else 32 00:01:26,920 --> 00:01:29,480 which can stop this massive transition we're seeing. 33 00:01:30,720 --> 00:01:35,400 Well, I basically think we are on an unstoppable transition to 34 00:01:35,400 --> 00:01:41,320 a dramatically increased role of batteries and in particular 35 00:01:41,320 --> 00:01:45,160 probably lithium ion and and maybe sodium ion batteries in 36 00:01:45,160 --> 00:01:49,560 our energy systems. Since I began to be very 37 00:01:49,800 --> 00:01:53,240 involved in issues to do with the energy transition about 15 38 00:01:53,240 --> 00:01:57,040 or 16 years ago, 17 years ago now, 2008 when I became the 39 00:01:57,040 --> 00:02:00,520 first chair of EU KS Climate Change Committee, one of the 40 00:02:00,520 --> 00:02:05,520 most dramatic and at that stage unexpected changes has been an 41 00:02:05,520 --> 00:02:09,039 extraordinary fall in the cost of lithium ion batteries. 42 00:02:09,039 --> 00:02:14,120 I mean, essentially they are down 90% in price or even more 43 00:02:14,320 --> 00:02:19,000 than they were in say 2000 and eight, 2009 when I first started 44 00:02:19,000 --> 00:02:23,080 working in these areas. And this has transformed the 45 00:02:23,080 --> 00:02:27,320 prospects for electrifying the global economy. 46 00:02:27,320 --> 00:02:31,640 It transforms the prospects for electrifying Rd. transport in 47 00:02:31,640 --> 00:02:35,280 particular, but it has also transformed the prospects for 48 00:02:35,280 --> 00:02:39,400 storing electricity within grid systems, which enables us to 49 00:02:39,400 --> 00:02:44,000 deploy renewables far faster than possible that far faster 50 00:02:44,000 --> 00:02:46,600 than we previously thought was possible. 51 00:02:46,600 --> 00:02:51,080 It really is a major change and has changed my point of view 52 00:02:51,080 --> 00:02:54,200 over the last 10 to 15 years as what is possible now. 53 00:02:54,600 --> 00:02:56,800 People then say, well, there are constraints. 54 00:02:56,800 --> 00:02:59,600 I have to say I don't think there are major constraints, or 55 00:02:59,600 --> 00:03:02,840 every time we think there's a constraint, it turns out that it 56 00:03:02,840 --> 00:03:07,120 isn't an important one. I remember five years ago when 57 00:03:07,120 --> 00:03:11,480 the main technology we were using, the main chemistry mix we 58 00:03:11,480 --> 00:03:19,360 were using in a a lithium ion battles was NMC, nickel, 59 00:03:19,480 --> 00:03:22,960 manganese and cobalt on the cathode. 60 00:03:23,280 --> 00:03:26,200 And people were worried about, well, how are we going to get 61 00:03:26,200 --> 00:03:28,600 enough cobalt? Most cobalt is coming from 62 00:03:28,600 --> 00:03:32,480 Democratic Republic of Congo with all sorts of environmental 63 00:03:32,480 --> 00:03:35,360 and child labour and political corruption issues. 64 00:03:35,520 --> 00:03:37,120 What applies the price of nickel? 65 00:03:37,560 --> 00:03:42,000 And then to an extent which I did not see coming about 5 or 6 66 00:03:42,000 --> 00:03:46,120 years ago, a wave of innovation given us the lithium ferrous 67 00:03:46,120 --> 00:03:50,440 phosphate battery which requires no nickel and no cobalt. 68 00:03:50,960 --> 00:03:55,240 And as a result, the cost of cobalt and the cost of nickel 69 00:03:55,720 --> 00:04:00,440 having gone up by about 3 or 4 times between about 2019 and 70 00:04:00,440 --> 00:04:04,640 2022, are now down to back with the way they were before. 71 00:04:04,640 --> 00:04:08,400 Because it turns out, although nickel and cobalt can enable us 72 00:04:08,400 --> 00:04:11,880 to have very high performance batteries, we don't need them in 73 00:04:11,880 --> 00:04:15,200 all batteries. And over 50% of all the 74 00:04:15,200 --> 00:04:18,640 batteries now being produced in the world are LFP batteries with 75 00:04:18,640 --> 00:04:23,200 no nickel and cobalt. A change in just five years. 76 00:04:23,600 --> 00:04:27,000 As for lithium, there is lots and lots of lithium in the 77 00:04:27,000 --> 00:04:29,800 world. And again we've seen a rise in 78 00:04:29,800 --> 00:04:34,640 the lithium price between 2020 to 2022 of about four times and 79 00:04:34,640 --> 00:04:36,800 we've seen it completely reverse. 80 00:04:37,320 --> 00:04:40,680 And that's despite the fact that there's an extraordinary boom 81 00:04:40,680 --> 00:04:45,760 going on in battery energy storage systems using lithium 82 00:04:45,760 --> 00:04:49,640 ion batteries and despite the fact that actually electric 83 00:04:49,640 --> 00:04:53,960 vehicle sales across the world are progressing faster than was 84 00:04:53,960 --> 00:04:57,680 predicted five years ago. Now of course there may be 85 00:04:58,080 --> 00:05:02,200 mineral supply pinch points that develop in future and there are 86 00:05:02,200 --> 00:05:05,800 very important local environmental impacts about 87 00:05:05,800 --> 00:05:08,040 mineral development. For instance, I'm very worried 88 00:05:08,400 --> 00:05:12,400 about some of the local environmental impacts of the big 89 00:05:12,400 --> 00:05:15,640 nickel production developments which have occurred in 90 00:05:15,640 --> 00:05:19,000 Indonesia. But overall, I think we should 91 00:05:19,000 --> 00:05:23,040 be confident that all the mineral supply issues will be 92 00:05:23,040 --> 00:05:29,520 solved by finding new resources, by new and less environmentally 93 00:05:29,520 --> 00:05:34,240 harmful processing technologies which are being developed and 94 00:05:34,240 --> 00:05:39,080 then later by the recycling of battery material. 95 00:05:39,080 --> 00:05:42,560 Now of course that at the moment is relatively small simply 96 00:05:42,560 --> 00:05:46,320 because we haven't yet got to the end of a big generation of 97 00:05:46,320 --> 00:05:48,800 EVs. But within 10 years time, I 98 00:05:48,800 --> 00:05:53,520 think a significant proportion of all the lithium and the 99 00:05:53,520 --> 00:05:55,800 nickel and the cobalt to the extent that we're still using 100 00:05:55,800 --> 00:05:58,840 lithium, cobalt going into electric vehicle and stationary 101 00:05:58,840 --> 00:06:03,760 batteries will be coming from the recycling of the batteries 102 00:06:03,760 --> 00:06:07,680 at end of life. So my overall belief is this is 103 00:06:07,680 --> 00:06:10,920 unstoppable. And when we at the Energy 104 00:06:10,920 --> 00:06:14,400 Transition Commission have looked at the environmental 105 00:06:14,440 --> 00:06:17,160 impact of all this of the world, of course there's an 106 00:06:17,160 --> 00:06:19,680 environmental impact. Human beings can't have a high 107 00:06:19,680 --> 00:06:22,680 level of prosperity without some environmental impact. 108 00:06:22,960 --> 00:06:28,000 But it is an order of magnitude less or two or three orders of 109 00:06:28,000 --> 00:06:31,880 magnitude less than the environmental impact of the 110 00:06:31,880 --> 00:06:34,120 fossil fuel system that we're replacing. 111 00:06:34,520 --> 00:06:38,040 So I I really am an optimist of this. 112 00:06:38,040 --> 00:06:41,520 It's one of the in a very tricky and worrying world, this is a 113 00:06:41,520 --> 00:06:46,000 technology which can transform humanity's prospects for the 114 00:06:46,000 --> 00:06:48,560 better. We appreciate it instead of 115 00:06:48,560 --> 00:06:50,920 closing the loop circularity. Definitely topics you can touch 116 00:06:50,920 --> 00:06:54,520 on more later as well. Maybe talk about 1 aspect. 117 00:06:54,520 --> 00:06:57,120 You touched already on a lot of the benefits another topic of us 118 00:06:57,120 --> 00:06:58,800 causes. The topic of long duration 119 00:06:58,800 --> 00:07:01,120 storage. If you think about lithium ion, 120 00:07:01,120 --> 00:07:03,920 you just mentioned you often think about one hour, 2 hour, 4 121 00:07:03,920 --> 00:07:07,840 hours, a bit more. But then of course, we also have 122 00:07:07,840 --> 00:07:09,480 other topics. You know, we have seasonal 123 00:07:09,520 --> 00:07:11,520 times, right? We also have loads of the, you 124 00:07:11,520 --> 00:07:14,560 know, longer time where you know, it's darker, maybe in 125 00:07:14,560 --> 00:07:17,080 winter, maybe, you know, there's time when the wind is not 126 00:07:17,080 --> 00:07:18,560 blowing as much. So things like that. 127 00:07:18,560 --> 00:07:21,440 So maybe what are some of the other other other technologies 128 00:07:21,440 --> 00:07:23,520 we need for that? Is it and Vdox flow? 129 00:07:23,520 --> 00:07:25,960 Is it hydrogen, maybe coffee or Shep? 130 00:07:26,000 --> 00:07:27,920 More on the topic of long duration storage, what do you 131 00:07:27,920 --> 00:07:30,240 see in that regards? Well, you're absolutely right. 132 00:07:30,240 --> 00:07:34,680 It's very important to understand all the durations 133 00:07:34,680 --> 00:07:41,440 across which we will have to shift supply via storage to 134 00:07:41,440 --> 00:07:44,520 balance supply and demand in a variable system. 135 00:07:44,960 --> 00:07:47,120 And in fact the Energy Transition Commission will be 136 00:07:47,120 --> 00:07:51,440 producing a major report in July which sets out that picture. 137 00:07:51,880 --> 00:07:54,360 Interestingly, it's very different in different regions 138 00:07:54,360 --> 00:07:56,160 of the world. If you look at the challenge 139 00:07:56,160 --> 00:08:01,080 which India or Indonesia or Africa will have, it will be 140 00:08:01,760 --> 00:08:05,840 almost entirely, very primarily A diurnal challenge, right? 141 00:08:05,840 --> 00:08:09,000 It will be you have a whole load of solar PV by day. 142 00:08:09,280 --> 00:08:11,840 How do you keep the air conditioner running when the sun 143 00:08:11,840 --> 00:08:16,520 goes down, much less in those countries, seasonal variation. 144 00:08:16,800 --> 00:08:21,080 When you come to Northwest Europe, by far our biggest 145 00:08:21,080 --> 00:08:28,200 balancing challenge is what to do in a February winter when we 146 00:08:28,200 --> 00:08:33,280 get an anticyclone in the North Sea where the wind supply goes 147 00:08:33,280 --> 00:08:39,120 down not for an individual hour or day, but goes down for maybe 148 00:08:39,120 --> 00:08:42,440 even two or three weeks, two or three weeks, which you know 149 00:08:42,440 --> 00:08:46,360 might happen once or twice in a winter, but you don't know when 150 00:08:46,360 --> 00:08:49,560 exactly they're going to happen. And if that's a very cold 151 00:08:49,560 --> 00:08:54,240 anticyclone, it might correspond with precisely the point where 152 00:08:54,240 --> 00:08:58,360 there is high electricity demand, if as we should, we have 153 00:08:58,400 --> 00:09:01,880 electrified heating, getting rid of the gas boilers and competing 154 00:09:02,040 --> 00:09:06,080 and completing them, replacing them with heat pumps. 155 00:09:06,520 --> 00:09:09,240 So we have these different balancing challenge. 156 00:09:09,640 --> 00:09:14,520 We have short term essentially diurnal 2 hours, four hours, say 157 00:09:14,520 --> 00:09:19,480 8 hours, but not more than that. We have weekly and a couple of 158 00:09:19,480 --> 00:09:22,800 weeks and then we have these long seasonal ones and we have 159 00:09:22,800 --> 00:09:27,040 to deploy a set of technologies to address each of these 160 00:09:27,080 --> 00:09:30,960 different duration challenges. Now, interestingly, when you 161 00:09:30,960 --> 00:09:35,720 look at batteries, technically batteries could solve any of 162 00:09:35,720 --> 00:09:40,080 these, right? There is no limit to how slow 163 00:09:40,240 --> 00:09:43,560 you can charge and discharge a battery. 164 00:09:44,040 --> 00:09:48,600 A battery has a maximum C rate, a rate at which you can charge 165 00:09:48,600 --> 00:09:50,920 and destcharge it. But that's a maximum. 166 00:09:51,200 --> 00:09:54,800 You could take a battery and slowly fill it up over, you 167 00:09:54,800 --> 00:09:58,320 know, a week and then slowly run it down in a week. 168 00:09:58,560 --> 00:10:01,000 The reason why we don't think we'll do that is not technical 169 00:10:01,000 --> 00:10:06,120 limitations, it's economics. Batteries have in the past cost 170 00:10:06,120 --> 00:10:11,000 so much per kWh storable that they're only economic if we're 171 00:10:11,000 --> 00:10:15,120 going to be cycling them many, many times per year. 172 00:10:15,520 --> 00:10:19,960 If we're going to be recycling with them, at least say 365 * a 173 00:10:19,960 --> 00:10:23,880 year, charging them up in the day and discharging them at 174 00:10:23,880 --> 00:10:28,640 night. An interesting issue is how low 175 00:10:28,640 --> 00:10:32,440 can battery costs go and does that challenge that assumption, 176 00:10:32,640 --> 00:10:34,680 right. If I could give you a, you know, 177 00:10:35,080 --> 00:10:42,880 batteries in 2010 cost in today's money 13 or $1400 per 178 00:10:42,880 --> 00:10:45,960 kWh. Now at the pack level, they're 179 00:10:45,960 --> 00:10:49,920 going below $100 per kWh. If I could give you a battery 180 00:10:50,280 --> 00:10:55,240 which cost $10 a kWh, you might use it even for that very long 181 00:10:55,240 --> 00:10:58,240 duration storage. It's all an economic issue, not 182 00:10:58,240 --> 00:11:01,080 a technical issue. But at least for now, our 183 00:11:01,080 --> 00:11:04,640 assumption is that the batteries will do the two hours, the four 184 00:11:04,640 --> 00:11:08,840 hours, the 8 hours, the 8 or 12 hours, which is enough to solve 185 00:11:09,040 --> 00:11:12,200 all of the diurnal challenges. And that's really important 186 00:11:12,200 --> 00:11:16,400 because it means that in say the Sunbelt of the world where there 187 00:11:16,400 --> 00:11:21,200 is a lot of sun and not much seasonal variation in in energy 188 00:11:21,200 --> 00:11:25,600 demand, solar plus batteries is going to become an almost 189 00:11:25,600 --> 00:11:29,240 complete solution. Come again to the Northwest, 190 00:11:29,240 --> 00:11:33,280 Europe or other high latitudes. We're going to need a range of 191 00:11:33,480 --> 00:11:35,960 technologies. Those will be batteries at the 192 00:11:35,960 --> 00:11:38,640 shorter duration. And then there's technologies 193 00:11:38,640 --> 00:11:43,960 like compressed air, maybe liquid air, maybe vanadium, 194 00:11:44,120 --> 00:11:48,840 redox flow batteries at a slightly longer level, pumped 195 00:11:48,840 --> 00:11:53,840 hydro, very a powerful technology wherever we have the 196 00:11:53,840 --> 00:11:57,880 physical situation. Of course, best when you've got 197 00:11:58,360 --> 00:12:01,640 some mountains, some elevation, because it's all based on 198 00:12:01,640 --> 00:12:04,840 gravity. Heat storage, a very interesting 199 00:12:04,840 --> 00:12:10,640 one, just heating up bricks or stones with electrical input 200 00:12:11,000 --> 00:12:14,280 when we've got surplus electricity and then releasing 201 00:12:14,280 --> 00:12:18,240 that heat either to be used as heat or to drive turbines when 202 00:12:18,240 --> 00:12:19,880 we need it. Now, of course, one of the 203 00:12:19,880 --> 00:12:23,640 biggest challenges is those really long cycles that I 204 00:12:23,640 --> 00:12:28,160 referred to earlier, how to take, say, surplus winds that we 205 00:12:28,160 --> 00:12:32,600 would tend to have in October and November with autumn winds 206 00:12:32,600 --> 00:12:37,680 and to store up enough energy that we can deal with this, as 207 00:12:37,680 --> 00:12:41,920 is in the German word, the dunkleflouter, the dolge of the 208 00:12:41,960 --> 00:12:47,080 February or so anticyclone. Here I think hydrogen is going 209 00:12:47,080 --> 00:12:51,440 to be the dominant technology, making hydrogen from 210 00:12:51,440 --> 00:12:54,760 electrolysis when we have surplus wind and solar and 211 00:12:54,760 --> 00:12:58,040 storing it in salt caverns. The analysis, for instance, for 212 00:12:58,040 --> 00:13:02,280 the UK suggests that we have lots and lots of storage in salt 213 00:13:02,280 --> 00:13:06,400 caverns and the cost of doing that is relatively low. 214 00:13:06,640 --> 00:13:12,040 So the capital cost per kWh storable is so low that it 215 00:13:12,040 --> 00:13:15,840 doesn't matter that you're only cycling it once or twice or 216 00:13:15,960 --> 00:13:19,520 three times a a year. But there are significant 217 00:13:19,520 --> 00:13:22,600 conversion losses of course, because what you will do is 218 00:13:22,600 --> 00:13:26,320 you'll make the hydrogen and then almost certainly get it 219 00:13:26,320 --> 00:13:29,680 back to electricity by burning it in a gas turbine. 220 00:13:29,960 --> 00:13:34,800 And the combination of the loss in the electricity, the the 221 00:13:34,840 --> 00:13:39,640 electrolysis process and in the combustion process will probably 222 00:13:39,640 --> 00:13:43,640 be 50% or or or so. So by definition, the 223 00:13:43,920 --> 00:13:47,080 electricity that comes out at the end is going to be twice as 224 00:13:47,080 --> 00:13:49,080 expensive as the electricity that you put in. 225 00:13:49,480 --> 00:13:54,280 But there are these full range of technologies available and we 226 00:13:54,280 --> 00:13:57,200 are confident that they can solve the problem though with 227 00:13:57,200 --> 00:14:00,600 this interesting wrinkle that I think the challenges of 228 00:14:00,600 --> 00:14:05,080 balancing supply and demand, we are going to find much easier 229 00:14:05,280 --> 00:14:08,720 and much cheaper in the Sunbelt of the world than in the 230 00:14:08,720 --> 00:14:12,120 northern latitude rodent belt. Brilliant. 231 00:14:12,120 --> 00:14:14,400 So what I hear from that is in some region it can be a full 232 00:14:14,400 --> 00:14:17,760 solution with the best with battery storage and some others 233 00:14:17,760 --> 00:14:19,360 we need to compliment with other technology. 234 00:14:19,360 --> 00:14:20,880 Absolutely right. Absolutely, yeah. 235 00:14:21,320 --> 00:14:23,160 Fantastic. So another application right of 236 00:14:23,160 --> 00:14:26,680 of batteries is elected vehicles and elected vehicles of course. 237 00:14:26,680 --> 00:14:29,160 And that's also the context where we were first connected. 238 00:14:29,680 --> 00:14:32,320 But then of course also the topic how you can maybe use even 239 00:14:32,320 --> 00:14:34,320 AVS, right. That's the stability to 240 00:14:34,320 --> 00:14:36,880 compliment. We go to grid for the grid as 241 00:14:36,880 --> 00:14:39,640 well and kind of enable, you know, and demand response and 242 00:14:39,640 --> 00:14:41,200 smart charging and things like that. 243 00:14:42,200 --> 00:14:45,400 As you mentioned, you know, we have more EVs coming, you know, 244 00:14:45,920 --> 00:14:49,440 online maybe in people anticipated five years ago, but 245 00:14:49,440 --> 00:14:51,080 there's still a range of challenges right from 246 00:14:51,080 --> 00:14:53,640 infrastructure and others for EVs. 247 00:14:53,640 --> 00:14:56,280 Maybe you could share with more your perspective on what we have 248 00:14:56,280 --> 00:14:58,880 to do now to really scale up further like to these millions 249 00:14:58,880 --> 00:15:02,080 of EVs which we require in the system and maybe what are some 250 00:15:02,080 --> 00:15:03,720 of the challenges to overcome that regards. 251 00:15:05,160 --> 00:15:06,400 Well, of course, it's interesting. 252 00:15:06,800 --> 00:15:10,080 We sometimes talk about these challenges as if, oh, we've got 253 00:15:10,080 --> 00:15:12,560 to work out what they are. But but let's be clear, there 254 00:15:12,560 --> 00:15:15,080 are two major countries in the world, two countries, one very 255 00:15:15,080 --> 00:15:17,800 big, one relatively small, which have solved these problems. 256 00:15:18,080 --> 00:15:25,520 I mean, Norway now 95% of all new vehicle sales are electric 257 00:15:25,520 --> 00:15:28,840 vehicle and primarily straight battery electric vehicle, not 258 00:15:28,840 --> 00:15:31,680 plug in Hydrid. And when in the UK people say to 259 00:15:31,680 --> 00:15:35,560 me, Oh dear, these, these battery electric vehicles, you 260 00:15:35,560 --> 00:15:39,240 know, they won't work in cold climates because the batteries 261 00:15:39,360 --> 00:15:42,000 don't work as well in cold climates and they won't work in 262 00:15:42,000 --> 00:15:44,280 countries with long driving distances. 263 00:15:44,560 --> 00:15:46,680 I say to them, well, have you ever been in Norway? 264 00:15:47,080 --> 00:15:49,280 And can you give me an explanation of why it's working 265 00:15:49,280 --> 00:15:51,640 in Norway? The answer is if you invest 266 00:15:51,760 --> 00:15:57,560 enough in charging infrastructure, then a the EVs 267 00:15:57,560 --> 00:16:01,440 will be the solution for the whole of passenger cars. 268 00:16:01,440 --> 00:16:04,680 And I think we've got to the stage took a long time in 269 00:16:04,680 --> 00:16:07,800 relation to Japan in particular where we've realized that the 270 00:16:07,800 --> 00:16:10,600 idea of the hydrogen passenger car is a complete dilution. 271 00:16:11,160 --> 00:16:14,360 Battery electric vehicles are fundamentally advantage. 272 00:16:14,360 --> 00:16:18,720 They are. They are much more efficient. 273 00:16:18,800 --> 00:16:21,920 They're silent, they don't produce local pollution in 274 00:16:21,920 --> 00:16:24,240 cities. They have far higher 275 00:16:24,640 --> 00:16:27,400 acceleration. For people who enjoy that sort 276 00:16:27,400 --> 00:16:31,360 of thing than old fashioned, noisy, inefficient internal 277 00:16:31,360 --> 00:16:33,600 combustion engines. These are going to win. 278 00:16:33,960 --> 00:16:37,200 And in China, of course, we're just at the stage where a big 279 00:16:37,200 --> 00:16:40,800 country rather than Norway, a little country where a, they're 280 00:16:40,800 --> 00:16:45,040 going above 50% of new passenger car sales. 281 00:16:45,040 --> 00:16:49,720 And I suspect that by 20-30 in China there'll be 90% of new 282 00:16:49,720 --> 00:16:52,400 passenger car sales. So I think it's important to 283 00:16:52,400 --> 00:16:56,320 realise this is a revolution which is absolutely unstoppable. 284 00:16:56,760 --> 00:17:02,080 And with the fall in battery prices, we are probably only two 285 00:17:02,080 --> 00:17:06,160 or three years away from having getting to the point where the 286 00:17:06,160 --> 00:17:10,319 battery electric vehicle is cheaper than the internal 287 00:17:10,319 --> 00:17:13,640 combustion engine vehicle for the same sort of size and 288 00:17:13,640 --> 00:17:15,880 comfort level. And again, that point has 289 00:17:15,880 --> 00:17:22,680 already been reached in China. And the other dimension of A 290 00:17:23,599 --> 00:17:27,119 innovation and battery technology advance is not just 291 00:17:27,119 --> 00:17:30,680 that the costs are coming down, but the energy density is going 292 00:17:30,680 --> 00:17:32,560 up. Energy density is measured both 293 00:17:32,840 --> 00:17:37,720 gravimetrically as Watt hours per kilogram, volumetrically as 294 00:17:37,800 --> 00:17:41,560 Watt hours per litre. But both of those volumetric a 295 00:17:41,560 --> 00:17:45,240 bit faster than gravimetric are growing up going up at maybe 6 296 00:17:45,240 --> 00:17:49,000 to 8% per annum, doubling every 10 years or so. 297 00:17:49,320 --> 00:17:53,680 And that's why we are now seeing coming onto the market EVs with 298 00:17:53,680 --> 00:17:58,680 ranges of 350, even 400 miles. Let me do that in kilometers, 299 00:17:58,840 --> 00:18:03,720 you know, 500 kilometers a, you know, 600 kilometers which will 300 00:18:03,720 --> 00:18:07,760 meet almost all people's, you know, needs for range. 301 00:18:08,080 --> 00:18:12,000 So this is unstoppable. What is interesting about that, 302 00:18:12,000 --> 00:18:14,520 and it's the other question you asked is, well, what is the 303 00:18:14,520 --> 00:18:16,920 implication of that for the power system? 304 00:18:16,920 --> 00:18:20,120 Because let's run some interesting little numbers here. 305 00:18:20,400 --> 00:18:27,480 Suppose by 2050 all the car fleet which will then exist is 306 00:18:27,480 --> 00:18:31,520 electric. Let's say that's 1.5 billion 307 00:18:31,880 --> 00:18:36,640 cars, all of them electric. And suppose they all have on 308 00:18:36,640 --> 00:18:43,800 average a 60 kWh battery. That means that we will have 309 00:18:43,920 --> 00:18:49,600 sitting out there on our streets 90 terawatt hours of battery 310 00:18:49,600 --> 00:18:53,040 capacity sitting around. And one of the features of 311 00:18:53,040 --> 00:18:56,080 passenger cars is that when we're talking about the 312 00:18:56,080 --> 00:18:59,200 individually owned passenger car, not the not the car fleet, 313 00:18:59,200 --> 00:19:02,040 the taxi, but the individually owned passenger car, they're 314 00:19:02,040 --> 00:19:06,680 typically only used about 5% of all the hours or sometimes less. 315 00:19:06,680 --> 00:19:09,720 The other time they just sit in the garage, sit on the street, 316 00:19:10,000 --> 00:19:14,360 2590 terawatt hours of storage capacity. 317 00:19:15,080 --> 00:19:20,840 By then we might be consuming across the world, say 70,000 318 00:19:20,840 --> 00:19:24,720 terawatt hours of electricity per annum, 2 1/2 times up from 319 00:19:25,000 --> 00:19:31,240 today's level, 70,000 terawatt hours per annum is about 190 320 00:19:31,360 --> 00:19:34,600 terawatt hours per day. So we're going to end up with a 321 00:19:34,600 --> 00:19:40,200 system that has demand per day of 120 terawatt hours and we've 322 00:19:40,200 --> 00:19:45,880 got sitting in the street unused 90 terawatt hours of battery 323 00:19:46,000 --> 00:19:50,560 capacity. So the challenge is clearly how 324 00:19:50,560 --> 00:19:54,320 do we use that because it is so much that if we worked out how 325 00:19:54,320 --> 00:19:59,040 to use it, we could solve all the short term duration 326 00:19:59,040 --> 00:20:03,600 balancing needs, not with having to put even more batteries into 327 00:20:03,600 --> 00:20:07,880 the stationary storage element, but by just using the batteries 328 00:20:08,000 --> 00:20:12,040 which are in the EVs now. At one level, this is very 329 00:20:12,040 --> 00:20:15,640 exciting technology. At another level, I first heard 330 00:20:15,640 --> 00:20:21,040 this idea 10 or 15 years ago and we're not really seeing yet a 331 00:20:21,040 --> 00:20:26,280 lot of all this sophisticated vehicle to grid type a 332 00:20:26,320 --> 00:20:28,320 sophistication that people have talked about. 333 00:20:28,320 --> 00:20:32,600 You know, signing up to a tariff from your electricity provider 334 00:20:32,880 --> 00:20:38,160 and agreeing that as long as you let them software control their 335 00:20:38,160 --> 00:20:42,360 bat, your battery, they can put out electricity in and take it 336 00:20:42,440 --> 00:20:45,800 out. The first step is to simply 337 00:20:46,000 --> 00:20:51,680 strongly encourage people to at very least charge that growing 338 00:20:51,680 --> 00:20:56,720 fleet at a sensible time of day. And of course this is also true 339 00:20:56,720 --> 00:21:01,080 to a degree, but somewhat less a degree in in heating buildings. 340 00:21:01,320 --> 00:21:05,400 This issue of how do we get people to use electricity when 341 00:21:05,400 --> 00:21:10,720 it is surplus to requirements, say in the northern latitude in 342 00:21:10,880 --> 00:21:14,360 the middle of the night when we've still got wind or in sunny 343 00:21:14,360 --> 00:21:17,960 parts of the world in the middle of the day when the surplus 344 00:21:17,960 --> 00:21:23,040 solar electricity and here time of day pricing of electricity is 345 00:21:23,040 --> 00:21:25,640 absolutely crucial. I was was recently talking with 346 00:21:25,640 --> 00:21:31,000 one of our members, Ausgrid, major distribution company in 347 00:21:31,120 --> 00:21:34,360 Australia and talking about the fact that there are parts of 348 00:21:34,360 --> 00:21:41,800 Australia now where electricity is free from 11:00 AM to 3:00 PM 349 00:21:42,280 --> 00:21:47,040 because there is so much rooftop solar that the grids don't want 350 00:21:47,040 --> 00:21:51,760 to pay that rooftop solar to produce because it's access to 351 00:21:51,760 --> 00:21:55,720 requirements and indeed the system itself is access to 352 00:21:55,720 --> 00:21:57,520 requirements. So what we're trying, they're 353 00:21:57,520 --> 00:22:00,960 trying to do there is saying educate people between 11:00 and 354 00:22:00,960 --> 00:22:03,400 3:00 electricity is being thrown away. 355 00:22:03,600 --> 00:22:08,200 So please charge your car in that period of the day. 356 00:22:08,520 --> 00:22:14,680 So there is a huge potential to use this enormous a passenger 357 00:22:14,680 --> 00:22:20,920 car fleet battery capacity first of all to shift electricity 358 00:22:20,920 --> 00:22:25,080 demand to times of day where we've got surplus electricity. 359 00:22:25,080 --> 00:22:29,760 And I'm sure that will occur to a very significant extent over 360 00:22:29,760 --> 00:22:31,800 time. I think we will achieve that 361 00:22:31,800 --> 00:22:35,720 revolution of people being sensible about when to charge 362 00:22:35,720 --> 00:22:39,440 their car. Whether or not we then progress 363 00:22:39,440 --> 00:22:44,360 to the sophisticated level of the battery, also putting 364 00:22:44,360 --> 00:22:47,840 electricity back into the grid on a complicated software 365 00:22:47,840 --> 00:22:51,880 control process, I don't know. But if we achieve the first, we 366 00:22:51,880 --> 00:22:57,000 will dramatically reduce the costs of achieving the balance 367 00:22:57,000 --> 00:23:00,840 of supply and demand within systems with high levels of 368 00:23:00,840 --> 00:23:02,880 renewables. Right. 369 00:23:03,320 --> 00:23:05,960 I'm telling you that, and I think expanding a bit on that, 370 00:23:05,960 --> 00:23:08,240 right, I think I want to go maybe to the topic of policy and 371 00:23:08,240 --> 00:23:10,800 regulation. And I know also again, you know, 372 00:23:10,800 --> 00:23:12,760 for the vehicle to grid, for example, there's two topics, 373 00:23:12,760 --> 00:23:14,160 right? With inverters, maybe a bit more 374 00:23:14,160 --> 00:23:17,280 technical topic. And then maybe with regulation, 375 00:23:17,320 --> 00:23:19,840 you know, having the right energy markets, maybe we can go 376 00:23:19,840 --> 00:23:23,680 a bit more into that now. I mean, a big topic of course, 377 00:23:23,680 --> 00:23:25,280 in Europe also people talk about, but also in other 378 00:23:25,280 --> 00:23:28,200 regions, right, topic of permitting, right, for this 379 00:23:28,200 --> 00:23:31,480 news, getting the systems, especially best systems as well. 380 00:23:32,080 --> 00:23:34,480 There's a lot of different kind of regulations or there's a lot 381 00:23:34,480 --> 00:23:37,320 of question marks about how to really set this up in effective 382 00:23:37,320 --> 00:23:39,920 ways, get this roll out right, of these systems out there. 383 00:23:40,280 --> 00:23:42,880 I've heard a very creative ways with like having, you know, 384 00:23:42,880 --> 00:23:46,240 these containers on, on movable vehicles so you can move it 385 00:23:46,240 --> 00:23:48,440 around, which is easier from a permitting stance in certain 386 00:23:48,440 --> 00:23:50,200 regions. So all kinds of kind of 387 00:23:50,200 --> 00:23:52,840 complicated topics there for also getting these, you know, 388 00:23:52,840 --> 00:23:55,640 best installations, but then of course also connect to wind and 389 00:23:55,640 --> 00:23:57,640 solar farms. So maybe if you could share a 390 00:23:57,640 --> 00:23:59,640 bit about like what you have seen maybe out there from a 391 00:23:59,640 --> 00:24:03,440 regulatory perspective, kind of what has worked well, maybe 392 00:24:03,440 --> 00:24:06,640 about some challenges and to get these systems online as quick as 393 00:24:06,640 --> 00:24:08,320 we can because that's something I think we're all very 394 00:24:08,320 --> 00:24:11,480 passionate about. Well, if I can begin by you 395 00:24:11,480 --> 00:24:15,400 mention these containerized solutions, this is a really 396 00:24:15,400 --> 00:24:17,720 important technological innovation which has really 397 00:24:17,720 --> 00:24:21,520 occurred in the last three or four years where the battery 398 00:24:21,520 --> 00:24:25,760 producers are putting the battery packs, battery packs 399 00:24:25,760 --> 00:24:29,040 have cells within them and then various packaging around them. 400 00:24:29,680 --> 00:24:34,600 And they're putting them in shipping containers, literally 401 00:24:34,600 --> 00:24:38,600 Teus as they're called, 20 foot equivalent unit, the actual, you 402 00:24:38,600 --> 00:24:42,760 know, shipping containers, these extraordinary things like a Lego 403 00:24:42,760 --> 00:24:45,920 brick, which just move in this highly standardized fashion. 404 00:24:46,240 --> 00:24:49,920 So they're putting them in then with different degrees of 405 00:24:50,240 --> 00:24:53,000 integration of things like inverters so that you can buy 406 00:24:53,000 --> 00:24:56,720 now what's called ADC block without an inverter or you can 407 00:24:56,720 --> 00:25:01,960 buy an AC block with an inverter, ADC to AC converter 408 00:25:02,160 --> 00:25:05,160 within the system. And these are creating systems 409 00:25:05,160 --> 00:25:08,720 which then to a significant extent are making battery energy 410 00:25:08,720 --> 00:25:11,240 storage closer and closer to what you might call plug and 411 00:25:11,240 --> 00:25:13,440 play. You, you, you get your container 412 00:25:13,440 --> 00:25:15,720 and you just plug it into the the system. 413 00:25:16,240 --> 00:25:21,800 And this has driven down the cost because within any battery 414 00:25:21,800 --> 00:25:25,840 system, it's quite interesting. Until about four years ago, the 415 00:25:25,840 --> 00:25:32,720 cost of stationary battery storage was much higher per kWh 416 00:25:32,920 --> 00:25:35,280 than the cost of EV battery storage. 417 00:25:35,720 --> 00:25:38,520 And at one level that was a bit odd because with EVs, we've got 418 00:25:38,520 --> 00:25:40,920 this challenge of getting them into the smallest space 419 00:25:40,920 --> 00:25:43,280 possible. But because that market had 420 00:25:43,280 --> 00:25:46,360 developed more, because it was more standardised, because we 421 00:25:46,360 --> 00:25:51,080 had large automotive OEMs giving large standardised orders to 422 00:25:51,080 --> 00:25:53,080 reducers that had developed faster. 423 00:25:53,080 --> 00:25:56,280 What we've now seen in the battery energy storage market is 424 00:25:56,280 --> 00:26:01,200 this containerised solution, much bigger scale and all what's 425 00:26:01,200 --> 00:26:05,000 called the, the BMS, the battery management system costs which 426 00:26:05,000 --> 00:26:08,480 are on in addition to the, the, the packs which are in 427 00:26:08,480 --> 00:26:10,680 themselves addition to the cells, the the battery 428 00:26:10,680 --> 00:26:13,040 management systems coming down in cost. 429 00:26:13,240 --> 00:26:16,360 Now, that doesn't immediately get around the other problem 430 00:26:16,360 --> 00:26:19,600 that you mentioned, which is ermitting, because, you know, 431 00:26:19,600 --> 00:26:22,680 these things do take up space. You've got to put them in a 432 00:26:22,680 --> 00:26:25,280 field. People may not like them, you 433 00:26:25,280 --> 00:26:28,880 know, being that field, you know, taking, taking over, you 434 00:26:28,880 --> 00:26:32,600 know, whatever that was before. Hopefully as much as possible we 435 00:26:32,600 --> 00:26:35,600 put it on brownfield land, but sometimes it will be Greenfield 436 00:26:35,600 --> 00:26:38,320 land. So it generates the same 437 00:26:38,760 --> 00:26:43,040 opposition and concerns that any form of development has. 438 00:26:43,040 --> 00:26:46,960 Whereas in housing development or onshore wind development or 439 00:26:47,160 --> 00:26:52,120 pylon development, I think over time we will find this less 440 00:26:52,120 --> 00:26:55,760 challenges in terms of local opposition than for instance, 441 00:26:55,760 --> 00:26:58,240 things like pylon development across the line. 442 00:26:58,240 --> 00:27:01,400 Because, you know, these things can be made, you know, 443 00:27:01,600 --> 00:27:05,040 relatively invisible. They don't need to be all that 444 00:27:05,040 --> 00:27:07,240 high. We can use lots of brownfield 445 00:27:07,240 --> 00:27:09,960 land. We can, you know, we can go down 446 00:27:09,960 --> 00:27:12,800 a bit. We can, you know, cut out space 447 00:27:12,800 --> 00:27:19,600 to a, a, take them down below the level of the visual site, et 448 00:27:19,600 --> 00:27:22,720 cetera. But you know, we are building a 449 00:27:22,720 --> 00:27:26,600 new electricity system which requires new forms of 450 00:27:26,600 --> 00:27:28,440 development. And of course, every time you 451 00:27:28,440 --> 00:27:32,400 put in a large battery storage system, a large battery storage 452 00:27:32,400 --> 00:27:35,800 system, you are going to need some sort of grid connection and 453 00:27:35,800 --> 00:27:40,280 that's going to create wires above or below the ground. 454 00:27:40,280 --> 00:27:41,720 And there may be resistance to that. 455 00:27:42,080 --> 00:27:47,240 So we've got to try to speed these permitting processes. 456 00:27:47,720 --> 00:27:53,840 We've got to try to speed the development of grids, though the 457 00:27:53,840 --> 00:27:58,520 really big grid needs will be generated by the fact that the 458 00:27:58,520 --> 00:28:01,960 offshore wind is in a different location than the coal was. 459 00:28:03,040 --> 00:28:06,680 We should maybe think about, you know, innovative ways of making 460 00:28:06,680 --> 00:28:09,040 sure we reuse assets that we have at the moment. 461 00:28:09,040 --> 00:28:15,000 For instance, every old coal plant has massive great big grid 462 00:28:15,000 --> 00:28:18,520 connections with it. So when you close a coal plant 463 00:28:18,840 --> 00:28:23,080 which is already a brownfield site, why not put a massive 464 00:28:23,080 --> 00:28:27,480 great battery installation there because you're using the 465 00:28:27,480 --> 00:28:30,520 existing asset rather than having to build new assets. 466 00:28:30,520 --> 00:28:34,000 The other thing to say is that the more that we can put in 467 00:28:34,640 --> 00:28:40,040 decentralized battery capacity, a battery capacity into people's 468 00:28:40,040 --> 00:28:45,800 homes, into commercial and industrial sites, the more that 469 00:28:45,800 --> 00:28:50,160 we achieve our balancing of slides from line demand right 470 00:28:50,160 --> 00:28:54,280 down at the local level. And then we don't need to do as 471 00:28:54,280 --> 00:28:59,000 much extension of the grid. We don't need to build as much 472 00:28:59,040 --> 00:29:03,080 new transmission or distribution grid because we're balancing at 473 00:29:03,080 --> 00:29:06,800 local level rather than balancing across the whole grid 474 00:29:06,800 --> 00:29:09,200 level. So there's a set of intelligent 475 00:29:09,200 --> 00:29:13,720 policies to support decentralized storage, including 476 00:29:13,720 --> 00:29:18,120 in home storage as much as possible, solar plus batteries 477 00:29:18,120 --> 00:29:23,000 together, for instance. There is trying to develop as 478 00:29:23,000 --> 00:29:30,920 much as possible, you know, less visually less space absorbing A 479 00:29:31,520 --> 00:29:34,760 developments using as much brownfield site as possible, 480 00:29:34,960 --> 00:29:38,520 using existing grid connections as much as possible. 481 00:29:39,200 --> 00:29:42,320 And I think we just need, you know, very conscious policies to 482 00:29:42,320 --> 00:29:44,400 do that. I mean, the good news of course 483 00:29:44,400 --> 00:29:47,480 is that the one thing that battery installations don't 484 00:29:47,480 --> 00:29:50,240 have, they, they take up space. People don't like the visual 485 00:29:50,240 --> 00:29:53,400 impact of them, but they're not producing any effluent. 486 00:29:53,400 --> 00:29:56,040 They're not, you know, they're not polluting, they're they're 487 00:29:56,040 --> 00:29:59,440 not producing noise. Compared with a lot of our 488 00:29:59,440 --> 00:30:03,120 existing energy system, they are less intrusive. 489 00:30:04,360 --> 00:30:05,840 Brilliant. Well, that, that makes a lot of 490 00:30:05,840 --> 00:30:07,800 sense. And then maybe I was talking a 491 00:30:07,800 --> 00:30:11,720 bit about going on the direction of markets, right, somewhat 492 00:30:12,120 --> 00:30:14,080 incentives, maybe if you can share, I mean, you mentioned 493 00:30:14,080 --> 00:30:16,600 already individual, right? It'd be good to have storage at 494 00:30:16,600 --> 00:30:20,120 home, but then also cause also, you know, larger installations. 495 00:30:21,080 --> 00:30:22,960 Do you think right now, you know, there's enough kind of 496 00:30:22,960 --> 00:30:25,040 incentives out there to kind of support that? 497 00:30:25,680 --> 00:30:28,680 Well, here's interesting thing on the development of battery 498 00:30:28,680 --> 00:30:34,640 energy storage I think and all the long duration ones which we 499 00:30:34,640 --> 00:30:37,840 talked about earlier. The challenge is just beginning 500 00:30:38,200 --> 00:30:42,960 and it's quite interesting and important to realise how much 501 00:30:42,960 --> 00:30:47,000 progress we have made with decarbonising electricity 502 00:30:47,000 --> 00:30:50,680 systems without doing a whole load of storage. 503 00:30:51,240 --> 00:30:55,920 So the UK in 2010 our electricity had a carbon 504 00:30:55,920 --> 00:31:08,040 intensity of 500 grams per kWh. In 2024 it was 125g per kWh, 75% 505 00:31:08,040 --> 00:31:11,680 reduction in the carbon intensity of electricity. 506 00:31:12,400 --> 00:31:17,320 That's partly because we closed down our coal plants and used 507 00:31:17,320 --> 00:31:22,280 gas as our fossil fuel fleet. But it's also because we have 508 00:31:22,280 --> 00:31:28,040 grown a electricity renewables to I think now you know in 509 00:31:28,040 --> 00:31:34,120 excess of about 30, but pushing on towards 40% wind and solar as 510 00:31:34,160 --> 00:31:38,640 our source of electricity. And so far all that we've really 511 00:31:38,640 --> 00:31:43,400 done is switch the gas fleet to flexible operation. 512 00:31:43,760 --> 00:31:47,680 So when the wind blows, we shut down gas plants and when the 513 00:31:47,680 --> 00:31:50,200 wind doesn't blow, we ramp up the gas plants. 514 00:31:50,840 --> 00:31:56,280 And so far we've had very little battery investment and almost no 515 00:31:56,600 --> 00:32:03,880 a long duration investment. And this is a very important 516 00:32:03,880 --> 00:32:08,160 message for, you know, countries like India and China. 517 00:32:08,680 --> 00:32:13,080 You can go a long way towards decarbonization if you can make 518 00:32:13,080 --> 00:32:15,520 your fossil fuel fleet more flexible. 519 00:32:15,880 --> 00:32:19,880 And although coal is inherently less flexible than gas, there's 520 00:32:19,880 --> 00:32:22,720 a whole load of new technologies that can make it flexible. 521 00:32:23,320 --> 00:32:28,040 So This is why so far, although we talk about all these storage 522 00:32:28,040 --> 00:32:30,960 technologies, there hasn't been huge deployment but we are now 523 00:32:31,200 --> 00:32:34,880 at the stage where we have to. So the UK is committed to get to 524 00:32:35,120 --> 00:32:38,960 0 carbon or close to 0 carbon electricity by the early twenty 525 00:32:38,960 --> 00:32:41,840 30s. We won't be able simply to do 526 00:32:41,840 --> 00:32:48,400 that by this trick of running the gas fleet in inverse to the 527 00:32:48,440 --> 00:32:51,600 the the solar and wind. We'll have to have bits where 528 00:32:51,760 --> 00:32:54,640 there's no solar and wind, but we're not running the gas fleet. 529 00:32:54,640 --> 00:32:56,840 We're doing something else. We're now at the stage where 530 00:32:56,840 --> 00:32:59,600 we're going to have to develop the batteries, the compressed 531 00:32:59,600 --> 00:33:04,000 air, the pumped hydro, the hydrogen and we need markets 532 00:33:04,040 --> 00:33:09,240 that support that. It's interesting the different 533 00:33:09,240 --> 00:33:11,080 market structures that can support it. 534 00:33:11,080 --> 00:33:13,880 And I don't think 1 can be prescriptive. 535 00:33:14,760 --> 00:33:17,920 One of the things that you can do is you can do quantitative 536 00:33:17,920 --> 00:33:21,360 mandates. You can say whenever you develop 537 00:33:21,560 --> 00:33:26,960 wind and solar, you have to put in a certain amount of battery 538 00:33:26,960 --> 00:33:30,800 or other storage capacity. You can do what the Indian 539 00:33:30,800 --> 00:33:33,960 government has done. Very interesting a development 540 00:33:33,960 --> 00:33:37,720 which is what's called the round the Clock Renewables contract, 541 00:33:38,240 --> 00:33:43,440 where in the major auctions for new renewable capacity and and 542 00:33:43,440 --> 00:33:47,840 generation in India, typically the provider has to commit to 543 00:33:47,840 --> 00:33:51,520 delivering electricity 80% of hours per year. 544 00:33:52,000 --> 00:33:55,200 And indeed, they're now moving to an environment where it's not 545 00:33:55,200 --> 00:34:00,520 just 80% of of all the hours at, at the developer's option, the 546 00:34:00,520 --> 00:34:04,720 system generator can say, and if I tell you 24 hours in advance, 547 00:34:04,720 --> 00:34:08,280 a particular half hour period, I need electricity that needs to 548 00:34:08,280 --> 00:34:12,719 be one of your, you know, 6000 hours per year. 549 00:34:13,679 --> 00:34:17,040 And that then pushes to the developers the challenge of 550 00:34:17,040 --> 00:34:21,400 saying, OK, what is the combination of wind and solar 551 00:34:21,400 --> 00:34:27,000 and batteries which will enable me to meet that contract in 552 00:34:27,000 --> 00:34:31,320 almost all states of the world, relying on very, very expensive 553 00:34:31,320 --> 00:34:34,520 wholesale electricity in the market if I get it wrong and I 554 00:34:34,520 --> 00:34:36,600 can't quite meet it in all states of the world. 555 00:34:37,080 --> 00:34:41,520 So that's another very interesting contract structure 556 00:34:41,840 --> 00:34:46,199 and one which is revealing that these combinations of wind, 557 00:34:46,199 --> 00:34:51,840 solar and batteries are now cheaper than coal power in a new 558 00:34:51,840 --> 00:34:55,800 coal power in India to provide electricity throughout the year. 559 00:34:55,800 --> 00:34:59,120 Really interesting test. Another structure you can have 560 00:34:59,360 --> 00:35:04,640 is of course capacity markets where you, you, you, the the 561 00:35:04,640 --> 00:35:09,840 grid operator pays people to exist as a capacity and then 562 00:35:09,840 --> 00:35:15,360 they they operate in the energy market off their marginal cost, 563 00:35:15,360 --> 00:35:19,400 which of course is very low. The crucial thing if you go that 564 00:35:19,400 --> 00:35:24,640 way is you must have neutrality of treatment between a capacity 565 00:35:24,640 --> 00:35:28,800 market that pays a gas turbine to exist and a capacity market 566 00:35:28,800 --> 00:35:33,720 that pays a, a, a battery to exist or a capacity market which 567 00:35:33,720 --> 00:35:37,240 is a contract with a demand side flexibility provider. 568 00:35:37,640 --> 00:35:40,280 And I think we've had a problem in the past that some capacity 569 00:35:40,280 --> 00:35:43,360 markets have developed in a non neutral fashion. 570 00:35:43,360 --> 00:35:47,440 They've had a favoritism to basically say, I know I need my 571 00:35:47,440 --> 00:35:51,000 gas turbines to continue to exist even if they only run 572 00:35:51,000 --> 00:35:53,880 $1000 a year, therefore I'm going to pay them to do it. 573 00:35:54,200 --> 00:35:57,280 So look, I don't think we can be prescriptive about this. 574 00:35:57,280 --> 00:36:00,520 And I think what we've got experimentation going on, but 575 00:36:00,520 --> 00:36:04,040 what we undoubtedly need is system operators throughout the 576 00:36:04,040 --> 00:36:07,520 world thinking about the combination of this suite of 577 00:36:07,520 --> 00:36:12,600 techniques which will enable us to develop all the technologies 578 00:36:12,600 --> 00:36:15,760 and the business systems, the combinations of technologies 579 00:36:16,080 --> 00:36:21,240 which will enable us to run systems with very high levels of 580 00:36:21,240 --> 00:36:24,080 variable renewables. And we foresee systems where, 581 00:36:24,560 --> 00:36:27,160 yes, they'll have hydro wherever you've got hydro. 582 00:36:27,160 --> 00:36:29,720 Hydro is a beautiful resource, particularly damned hydro. 583 00:36:30,000 --> 00:36:32,680 Wherever you've got it, it's cheap and it's flexible. 584 00:36:33,000 --> 00:36:36,240 Yes, they will have nuclear again, if you've got existing 585 00:36:36,240 --> 00:36:40,160 nuclear, keep it forever if you can because the 0 marginal cost 586 00:36:40,160 --> 00:36:42,080 is low. But we see a world in which 587 00:36:42,080 --> 00:36:45,840 variable renewables, wind and solar will probably go to over 588 00:36:45,840 --> 00:36:51,760 70% of supply in almost all countries of the world. 589 00:36:52,200 --> 00:36:55,240 And we will need system operators which think very 590 00:36:55,240 --> 00:36:59,240 carefully about the combination of market design and contract 591 00:36:59,240 --> 00:37:02,240 structures which enables to us to do that in a cost effective 592 00:37:02,240 --> 00:37:04,880 fashion. Well, and you just mentioned on 593 00:37:04,880 --> 00:37:06,840 cost, right? And of course, another topic is 594 00:37:06,840 --> 00:37:10,240 the investment required, right, to get all these systems into 595 00:37:10,240 --> 00:37:12,240 place. We know that's a massive 596 00:37:12,240 --> 00:37:13,960 investment only on the battery side, right? 597 00:37:13,960 --> 00:37:16,160 Best what's kind of required there, but it's a lot of 598 00:37:16,160 --> 00:37:19,120 appetite as well in the markets. But yeah, maybe if you could 599 00:37:19,120 --> 00:37:21,160 share a bit more about, you know, what could make it. 600 00:37:21,520 --> 00:37:23,640 Is it attractive already now this year for the financial 601 00:37:23,640 --> 00:37:25,600 markets? Who's going to put the money in? 602 00:37:25,600 --> 00:37:28,360 Is it more individuals? Is it more companies? 603 00:37:28,360 --> 00:37:30,280 Is it more investors? Is it more governments? 604 00:37:30,440 --> 00:37:32,240 Who's really getting us most of the capacity? 605 00:37:32,360 --> 00:37:38,160 I think it's going to be in most countries mainly private 606 00:37:38,160 --> 00:37:42,160 investors and private companies, private developers. 607 00:37:44,320 --> 00:37:47,880 I mean, it's very interesting in the EV market we, we don't even 608 00:37:48,400 --> 00:37:52,560 talk about really that challenge because we just assume that 609 00:37:53,160 --> 00:37:57,320 there's some OEMs, you know, big automotive companies that invest 610 00:37:57,320 --> 00:38:01,720 to build EV factories and they do contracts with big battery 611 00:38:01,720 --> 00:38:04,240 companies. Now if you want battery 612 00:38:04,320 --> 00:38:09,440 factories to be in Europe, not China, then you get government 613 00:38:09,440 --> 00:38:12,520 stepping in and providing subsidies, but the core activity 614 00:38:12,800 --> 00:38:17,120 is done by private enterprise and on the whole it, it works 615 00:38:17,120 --> 00:38:20,080 well. And I think broadly speaking, 616 00:38:20,440 --> 00:38:24,640 for most of these power sector developments, you know, we are 617 00:38:24,640 --> 00:38:28,240 going to have private developers of wind farms, private 618 00:38:28,240 --> 00:38:32,120 developers of demand side flexibility offers one thing 619 00:38:32,120 --> 00:38:36,160 sort of company like Octopus in, in the UK, absolute leader in 620 00:38:36,400 --> 00:38:38,280 demand side flexibility packages. 621 00:38:38,640 --> 00:38:41,760 And I think we'll see that in the battery space as well. 622 00:38:41,760 --> 00:38:45,160 And there is, for instance, intriguingly huge investment now 623 00:38:45,160 --> 00:38:49,160 going to stationary energy storage in the US, you know, 624 00:38:49,160 --> 00:38:51,880 despite the fact that they now have a president who, you know, 625 00:38:51,880 --> 00:38:54,440 doesn't believe in this energy transition and wants to drill, 626 00:38:54,440 --> 00:38:58,200 baby drill and, you know, absolutely enormous expansion 627 00:38:58,200 --> 00:39:01,040 going on. I don't think we should exclude 628 00:39:01,040 --> 00:39:06,080 a role for, for instance, infrastructure banks. 629 00:39:06,080 --> 00:39:09,960 And I think it should be focused on those things which are going 630 00:39:09,960 --> 00:39:16,240 to be most complex and first of a kind and where you get 631 00:39:16,240 --> 00:39:19,680 complicated combinations of things that have to happen. 632 00:39:19,680 --> 00:39:24,840 So for instance, as I say, I think battery storage will tend 633 00:39:24,840 --> 00:39:28,080 provided we can deal with the planning and permitting to be a 634 00:39:28,080 --> 00:39:30,920 relatively straightforward plug and play system. 635 00:39:30,920 --> 00:39:34,280 You know, you, you get your battery container situations, 636 00:39:34,280 --> 00:39:37,080 you build as many of those you need together. 637 00:39:37,080 --> 00:39:41,560 You, you connect the grids, you know, you don't provided you can 638 00:39:41,560 --> 00:39:44,960 get the land and the grid connection, you can develop a 639 00:39:44,960 --> 00:39:46,880 business system for that quite fast. 640 00:39:47,280 --> 00:39:51,280 I think where we have to do you know, salt cavern developments, 641 00:39:51,800 --> 00:39:56,320 hydrogen pipelines, working out whether that's going to be 642 00:39:56,600 --> 00:40:00,120 retrofitting existing gas pipelines or is it new gas 643 00:40:00,120 --> 00:40:03,960 pipelines? I think we may have to have a 644 00:40:03,960 --> 00:40:08,440 role there for say you know, national infrastructure banks 645 00:40:08,640 --> 00:40:12,240 which which take the first risk which make it happen. 646 00:40:13,120 --> 00:40:15,920 Just as we are seeing for instance in the development of 647 00:40:16,240 --> 00:40:18,920 carbon capture and storage networks where you're trying to 648 00:40:18,920 --> 00:40:22,760 build together multiple different players. 649 00:40:22,760 --> 00:40:26,200 You know, cement plants here, somebody who has an old gas 650 00:40:26,200 --> 00:40:30,200 field there, somebody who owns a pipeline which is almost good 651 00:40:30,200 --> 00:40:34,200 but needs to be retrofitted. You sometimes need the role of 652 00:40:34,240 --> 00:40:37,240 the state or or more likely the infrastructure bank to just sort 653 00:40:37,240 --> 00:40:42,520 of help lubricate those early complicated combinations of 654 00:40:42,520 --> 00:40:43,280 actions. But. 655 00:40:43,280 --> 00:40:47,320 I think provided you have power market design right, provided 656 00:40:47,320 --> 00:40:51,520 you've got that suite of appropriate contracts which I 657 00:40:51,520 --> 00:40:55,720 referred to earlier, I think most of the investment will come 658 00:40:55,720 --> 00:41:00,840 from the private sector, from private investors, long term 659 00:41:01,240 --> 00:41:04,080 infrastructure in funds, pension funds, insurance companies, the 660 00:41:04,080 --> 00:41:07,200 sort of people who do long term investments and the and the 661 00:41:07,200 --> 00:41:10,600 private developers who put that together into profitable 662 00:41:10,600 --> 00:41:13,600 packages. Well, and I think we have also 663 00:41:13,600 --> 00:41:15,400 as battery associates, we have seen definitely quite a bit of 664 00:41:15,400 --> 00:41:17,840 demand on this side. So I think I very much agree 665 00:41:17,840 --> 00:41:19,760 with you on that. I think that's, that's a lot of 666 00:41:20,080 --> 00:41:24,320 interest in in these markets and for these kind of investors on 667 00:41:24,320 --> 00:41:27,680 the this sector. Kind of the two last topics I 668 00:41:27,680 --> 00:41:30,480 want to touch on, like the first one will be we already touched 669 00:41:30,480 --> 00:41:32,280 on a few regions around the world, right? 670 00:41:32,280 --> 00:41:34,480 And kind of some of them how they're maybe more head and 671 00:41:34,480 --> 00:41:37,040 others and and some maybe have some more challenging times. 672 00:41:37,040 --> 00:41:39,920 But maybe if you could help me a bit on, you know, for the 673 00:41:39,920 --> 00:41:42,000 audience as well, kind of understand a bit like, you know, 674 00:41:42,280 --> 00:41:43,960 the code, where's Europe standing right now? 675 00:41:44,400 --> 00:41:47,240 But maybe also where other regions standing on the storage 676 00:41:47,240 --> 00:41:50,000 type on the energy transition topic, just to understand maybe 677 00:41:50,000 --> 00:41:53,160 always compared to China, North America, just kind of a bit of 678 00:41:53,160 --> 00:41:55,000 understanding how we're standing in that regards. 679 00:41:56,280 --> 00:42:04,440 Well, Europe in some ways it is among the most advanced 680 00:42:05,400 --> 00:42:07,600 continents in a, in a transition. 681 00:42:08,640 --> 00:42:12,600 I mean, of course country like Brazil has some of the cleanest 682 00:42:12,600 --> 00:42:14,840 electricity in the world because it's always had clean 683 00:42:14,840 --> 00:42:17,560 electricity because it's always been hydro. 684 00:42:18,000 --> 00:42:20,160 So. But if you talk about countries 685 00:42:20,160 --> 00:42:23,600 that started with very big fossil fuel electricity systems 686 00:42:23,600 --> 00:42:27,160 and are trying to come out of them, Europe is one of the most 687 00:42:27,160 --> 00:42:28,800 advanced. And we have countries like 688 00:42:28,840 --> 00:42:33,080 Germany, Ireland, Spain, Denmark, Portugal already going 689 00:42:33,120 --> 00:42:38,680 over 40% of their electricity becoming from variable 690 00:42:38,920 --> 00:42:43,440 renewables. And that that is increasing very 691 00:42:43,440 --> 00:42:46,240 significantly. And it's quite heartening that 692 00:42:46,280 --> 00:42:50,000 after the Russia invasion of Ukraine and the shock that that 693 00:42:50,000 --> 00:42:57,200 gave us to Das Supply, we did accelerate moves towards 694 00:42:57,320 --> 00:43:04,480 renewable deployment with the Repower EU program. 695 00:43:05,800 --> 00:43:10,360 And I think and with action to free up planning and permitting 696 00:43:10,360 --> 00:43:13,160 systems and investment is continuing. 697 00:43:13,160 --> 00:43:17,640 There's been a bit of a set back on the offshore wind industry, 698 00:43:17,640 --> 00:43:20,440 but I think we're going to see that bouncing forward again, the 699 00:43:20,440 --> 00:43:25,080 level of solar deployment in places like Germany and Spain 700 00:43:25,080 --> 00:43:28,360 and it is quite extraordinary. That's been an explosion of the 701 00:43:28,360 --> 00:43:32,240 last few years. And then on EVs, on the 702 00:43:32,240 --> 00:43:35,680 electrification side, it's beginning to ramp up. 703 00:43:35,680 --> 00:43:37,840 I mean, there's been a lot of talk about, oh, it's going 704 00:43:37,840 --> 00:43:40,240 slower than we thought. Well, yeah, but just remember, 705 00:43:40,240 --> 00:43:45,520 February, the figures are in for Germany, 30% of the new vehicles 706 00:43:45,520 --> 00:43:48,160 are are are EVs. And I think we're going to see 707 00:43:48,160 --> 00:43:52,040 an acceleration there. So Europe is making progress. 708 00:43:52,040 --> 00:43:54,400 I think it's making slower progress on things to do with 709 00:43:54,400 --> 00:43:58,840 this heavy industry transformation in residential 710 00:43:58,840 --> 00:44:01,000 heat. A lot of progress too slow in 711 00:44:01,000 --> 00:44:04,280 the UK. But on the whole, you know, the 712 00:44:04,280 --> 00:44:08,520 UK has said it wants some 0 carbon power system by 20-30, 713 00:44:08,520 --> 00:44:11,880 let's say early Twenty 30s. Europe has said by 2035. 714 00:44:12,200 --> 00:44:14,200 I think we're going to get pretty close to that, right? 715 00:44:14,680 --> 00:44:18,560 You know, I increasingly think the big challenge for Europe 716 00:44:18,560 --> 00:44:22,440 being 0 carbon in 2050 is what are we gonna do about 717 00:44:22,440 --> 00:44:23,960 agriculture? What are you gonna do about 718 00:44:23,960 --> 00:44:27,080 aviation? But I think by 2050, we'll have 719 00:44:27,160 --> 00:44:31,840 a primarily electrified Rd. transport passenger fleet will 720 00:44:31,840 --> 00:44:36,040 have a primarily 0 carbon. It doesn't mean to be precisely 721 00:44:36,040 --> 00:44:40,800 0 carbon, but let's say 10 or 20 grams per kWh electricity. 722 00:44:41,240 --> 00:44:46,480 We're on target to do that. China is interesting because of 723 00:44:46,480 --> 00:44:50,200 course, China emissions, China emissions have probably just 724 00:44:50,200 --> 00:44:52,840 peaked. It may be that we'll find out 725 00:44:52,840 --> 00:44:58,080 that calendar year 2024, maybe the peak or challenge year 2025 726 00:44:58,720 --> 00:45:02,000 is deploying renewables at an absolutely stunning rate. 727 00:45:02,000 --> 00:45:06,120 But what has been occurring so far is that electricity demand 728 00:45:06,280 --> 00:45:09,160 has been going up to match that. What we've been seeing is China 729 00:45:09,600 --> 00:45:15,240 installing enough wind and solar every year to produce about 300 730 00:45:15,240 --> 00:45:18,960 terawatt hours of electricity, but electricity demand has gone 731 00:45:18,960 --> 00:45:23,960 up by about 300 terawatt hours. So that although the new 732 00:45:24,680 --> 00:45:27,400 electricity, the new renewables have been meeting all the 733 00:45:27,400 --> 00:45:32,360 increase in demand, the the amount of demand which is met by 734 00:45:32,360 --> 00:45:35,400 the coal fleet hasn't gone down. I think we're probably at the 735 00:45:35,400 --> 00:45:38,720 turning point. It's obviously hugely important 736 00:45:38,720 --> 00:45:41,920 for Europe that once they go beyond that turning point, they 737 00:45:41,920 --> 00:45:44,800 come down as rapidly as possible. 738 00:45:45,120 --> 00:45:49,400 The early stages of that will be moving the coal fleet beginning 739 00:45:49,400 --> 00:45:52,800 to occur already onto a flexible process so that the coal 740 00:45:52,800 --> 00:45:57,600 capacity still exists, but the utilization rate goes down as it 741 00:45:57,880 --> 00:46:02,760 begins to flex in invoice pattern to the wind and solar. 742 00:46:03,040 --> 00:46:06,480 That's where China is. And of course China is ahead on 743 00:46:06,560 --> 00:46:09,800 electrification of Rd. transport, way, way ahead both 744 00:46:09,800 --> 00:46:13,360 in production and in demand. India is somewhat similar to 745 00:46:13,360 --> 00:46:18,160 China in that their electricity demand is going up very rapidly, 746 00:46:18,720 --> 00:46:22,520 actually going up slightly faster than the new renewable 747 00:46:22,520 --> 00:46:24,840 supply. So they really need to ramp up 748 00:46:24,840 --> 00:46:28,080 the pace of renewable deployment, but it has 749 00:46:28,080 --> 00:46:33,040 accelerated very significantly in the last couple of years. 750 00:46:35,720 --> 00:46:38,160 Thank you for showing that. And then as a final question, 751 00:46:38,400 --> 00:46:40,560 just interest of time, maybe looking a bit into the future, 752 00:46:40,560 --> 00:46:42,560 what kind of what we can expect, what we can see. 753 00:46:42,960 --> 00:46:45,240 We can, I think definitely tell you quite optimistic, I think. 754 00:46:45,800 --> 00:46:47,880 And some of this topic is of course really good to hear to 755 00:46:47,880 --> 00:46:50,080 see. But maybe, yeah, maybe on these 756 00:46:50,080 --> 00:46:52,760 two topics we also touched on today, right or the three one 757 00:46:52,760 --> 00:46:55,600 maybe one on the technology side, maybe what are you kind of 758 00:46:55,600 --> 00:46:57,360 expecting? What could come you know to to 759 00:46:57,360 --> 00:47:00,520 help on this regards maybe also long duration or chemistry 760 00:47:00,520 --> 00:47:03,440 actually mine and then also the topic you know, from from 761 00:47:03,440 --> 00:47:06,840 economical policy standpoints, anything you kind of expect 762 00:47:06,840 --> 00:47:09,280 maybe to come with the next let's say 5 or 10 or three 763 00:47:09,280 --> 00:47:11,640 years? Well, look, I think on emerging 764 00:47:11,640 --> 00:47:14,680 technologies, battery technology is going to progress and 765 00:47:14,680 --> 00:47:19,480 progress and progress and we may see an acceleration of it. 766 00:47:20,400 --> 00:47:23,000 One must always be wary of saying that AI is going to 767 00:47:23,000 --> 00:47:26,600 accelerate, but but this is one of these areas where artificial 768 00:47:26,600 --> 00:47:32,560 intelligence may accelerate. Our ability to explore all the 769 00:47:32,560 --> 00:47:36,960 different possible combinations of elements on the anode, the 770 00:47:36,960 --> 00:47:40,600 cathode, all the different ways that the battery chemistry 771 00:47:40,600 --> 00:47:42,520 works. It's similar to the fact we've 772 00:47:42,520 --> 00:47:47,560 seen this amazing breakthrough on AI in understanding protein 773 00:47:47,560 --> 00:47:50,560 folds in the organic chemistry area. 774 00:47:50,800 --> 00:47:53,560 I think in the inorganic chemistry area, just 775 00:47:53,560 --> 00:47:57,280 understanding every way that we can play around with the 776 00:47:57,280 --> 00:47:59,400 elemental table, a periodic table. 777 00:47:59,400 --> 00:48:03,120 I, I, I, I suspect it will accelerate, but it was going 778 00:48:03,200 --> 00:48:06,880 pretty fast even before that. I mean, I, there are two key 779 00:48:06,880 --> 00:48:10,320 dimensions of battery technology development. 780 00:48:10,760 --> 00:48:14,520 What what 1 is the the cost and the other is the performance on 781 00:48:14,520 --> 00:48:19,360 the cost. Sodium ion, you know, promises 782 00:48:19,880 --> 00:48:23,400 to enable us to produce just cheaper batteries per kWh 783 00:48:23,400 --> 00:48:25,840 storable. And the cheaper the batteries, 784 00:48:26,560 --> 00:48:30,400 the longer the duration which batteries can address. 785 00:48:30,400 --> 00:48:33,920 I, I mentioned earlier, if somebody can give me a battery 786 00:48:34,560 --> 00:48:39,720 at $10 a kWh at the pack level, then I think we're seriously 787 00:48:39,720 --> 00:48:45,040 into using batteries over, you know, multi day, you know, 50 788 00:48:45,040 --> 00:48:49,560 hour, 100 day cycles or even longer, not just saying that 789 00:48:49,560 --> 00:48:52,200 they stick at the at the short duration level. 790 00:48:52,560 --> 00:48:56,320 So sodium at the moment early stages and of course therefore 791 00:48:56,320 --> 00:48:57,960 it's more expensive than lithium ion. 792 00:48:57,960 --> 00:49:01,400 But we know that if it becomes big manufacturing capacity, it 793 00:49:01,400 --> 00:49:05,000 will be lower cost than lithium ion just because sodium is 794 00:49:05,000 --> 00:49:07,840 available in essentially limitless and very cheap 795 00:49:07,960 --> 00:49:09,720 quantities compared with lithium. 796 00:49:10,840 --> 00:49:15,320 I think what's interesting is will sodium have an opportunity 797 00:49:15,320 --> 00:49:19,040 soon or or has lithium ended up so cheap that at least it's 798 00:49:19,040 --> 00:49:23,080 slowed down sodium? So people tell me sodium ion 799 00:49:23,080 --> 00:49:27,360 pencil in that with mass scale, I might get it at the cell level 800 00:49:27,600 --> 00:49:35,160 to, you know, $2025 per kWh. And they were saying that three 801 00:49:35,160 --> 00:49:39,440 years ago when the battery cell, lithium ion battery cell was 802 00:49:40,280 --> 00:49:45,480 $80.00 per kWh, but the cheapest battery cells, lithium ion, are 803 00:49:45,480 --> 00:49:51,240 now $35 per kWh, in which case the sodium advantage sort of 804 00:49:51,560 --> 00:49:55,560 gets squeezed a bit. Now sodium, one of the reasons 805 00:49:55,560 --> 00:49:59,720 why lithium ion was $80.00 kilowatt was lithium was four 806 00:49:59,720 --> 00:50:01,280 times more expensive than at the moment. 807 00:50:01,280 --> 00:50:06,080 So sodium is almost an insurance policy against us hitting 808 00:50:06,320 --> 00:50:10,760 limitations in lithium supply. I if the lithium price ever did 809 00:50:10,760 --> 00:50:12,920 go up and if you thought there was supplied constraints that 810 00:50:12,920 --> 00:50:15,640 drove it up, then sodium is in the money. 811 00:50:16,040 --> 00:50:19,520 I think by the combination of lower price lithium and the 812 00:50:19,520 --> 00:50:23,280 potential for sodium, what we can predict is that battery 813 00:50:23,280 --> 00:50:25,480 cells will get cheaper and cheaper and cheaper. 814 00:50:25,920 --> 00:50:29,640 We then have to concentrate a lot on everything else apart 815 00:50:29,640 --> 00:50:32,760 from the cell, the whole of the balance of system costs. 816 00:50:32,760 --> 00:50:37,480 But basically we have a set of technologies which are going to 817 00:50:37,680 --> 00:50:41,480 drive down the cost of the ion based batteries. 818 00:50:41,720 --> 00:50:44,960 We also need to keep our eye on other technologies which are 819 00:50:44,960 --> 00:50:49,040 highly dependable, highly interesting at longer duration. 820 00:50:49,320 --> 00:50:53,560 For instance, there's a very interesting ones called iron air 821 00:50:53,920 --> 00:50:58,200 batteries which exploit and and it's it's almost, you know, 822 00:50:59,040 --> 00:51:01,920 intriguing to understand it. It exploits the process of 823 00:51:02,480 --> 00:51:10,920 rusting and de rusting oxidation is a you know it it it's like 824 00:51:10,920 --> 00:51:16,920 combustion it it produces energy and reduction de rusting iron, 825 00:51:17,760 --> 00:51:21,840 you know turning iron ore back into iron absorbs energy and you 826 00:51:21,840 --> 00:51:26,920 can use that cycle. Now the cycle is has a large 827 00:51:27,200 --> 00:51:32,640 round trip inefficiency, but its capital cost is very low because 828 00:51:32,640 --> 00:51:37,440 you're it's very straightforward and you're using a very cheap 829 00:51:38,080 --> 00:51:41,120 material. Which is why iron air might 830 00:51:41,120 --> 00:51:44,840 develop as an alternative even to hydrogen for some of these 831 00:51:45,040 --> 00:51:51,440 very long, long duration challenges where it doesn't 832 00:51:51,600 --> 00:51:56,680 matter that, you know, you're only cycling a few times a year 833 00:51:56,680 --> 00:51:58,840 because your capital cost is very low. 834 00:51:59,800 --> 00:52:02,480 So on cost, a set of interesting thing happens. 835 00:52:02,520 --> 00:52:05,520 And then I think even more on performance. 836 00:52:06,840 --> 00:52:09,400 I said earlier, we're, we're managing to increase the energy 837 00:52:09,400 --> 00:52:12,760 density of batteries, maybe doubling every eight years. 838 00:52:12,760 --> 00:52:15,600 And as long as that continues, as somebody once said, compound 839 00:52:15,600 --> 00:52:18,080 interest is a wonderful thing. If you double every eight years, 840 00:52:18,320 --> 00:52:24,480 you quadruple every 16 years you know, and then you know, beyond 841 00:52:24,480 --> 00:52:29,720 that you you go up 16 times every 32 years etcetera, 842 00:52:29,720 --> 00:52:35,320 etcetera. And what that means is that 843 00:52:35,320 --> 00:52:40,760 whereas at the moment I assume that batteries are only 844 00:52:40,760 --> 00:52:45,840 applicable at Rd. transport and at the very short end of 845 00:52:46,240 --> 00:52:51,400 aviation, the sort of, you know, 10 seater plane going 500 846 00:52:51,400 --> 00:52:54,840 kilometers, but nothing like a jumbo jet getting across the 847 00:52:54,840 --> 00:52:57,240 Atlantic. I'm going to stick in my neck 848 00:52:57,240 --> 00:52:59,960 out and make a bet for anybody who wants it. 849 00:52:59,960 --> 00:53:03,720 But I just warn you, the date at which we settle this date is 850 00:53:03,880 --> 00:53:06,760 this bet is 2070 and I will be dead then. 851 00:53:06,760 --> 00:53:08,600 So you ain't going to get your money back. 852 00:53:09,160 --> 00:53:13,920 By 2070, we will have long distance battery aviation, 853 00:53:14,120 --> 00:53:15,720 right, Because it will get there. 854 00:53:16,200 --> 00:53:20,560 If you look at the theoretical energy density, given the 855 00:53:20,560 --> 00:53:23,600 fundamental physics of what's called lithium air or lithium 856 00:53:23,640 --> 00:53:28,120 oxygen batteries, they have the energy density that can do that. 857 00:53:28,440 --> 00:53:33,160 So we can't rely on that. And the decarbonisation of 858 00:53:33,200 --> 00:53:38,320 aviation up to 2050 has to be based on sustainable aviation 859 00:53:38,320 --> 00:53:41,000 fuel continuing to use liquid hydrocarbon. 860 00:53:41,320 --> 00:53:46,600 But I think you have to assume that the energy performance, the 861 00:53:46,680 --> 00:53:53,080 the energy density and therefore our ability to support mobility 862 00:53:53,080 --> 00:53:58,280 transportation, it will just be for the next 50 years on a 863 00:53:58,560 --> 00:54:03,640 relentless upward path, which eventually will achieve even 864 00:54:03,760 --> 00:54:08,440 long distance aviation. Even if we need other policies 865 00:54:08,840 --> 00:54:10,720 in the meantime, we can't rely on that. 866 00:54:10,920 --> 00:54:15,720 So those are different dimensions of where you know the 867 00:54:15,720 --> 00:54:17,680 technology is going to take us in future. 868 00:54:18,840 --> 00:54:21,040 Brilliant. Lord Turner, absolute pleasure. 869 00:54:21,040 --> 00:54:23,920 I could talk with you for hours. Thank you very much. 870 00:54:24,400 --> 00:54:25,640 For now, I think we have to wrap it up. 871 00:54:25,640 --> 00:54:27,680 Yeah, I know, but I think it's a very good outlook there as well. 872 00:54:27,680 --> 00:54:29,920 And we'll keep our eye out on these other applications well 873 00:54:29,920 --> 00:54:32,120 and opportunities. But yeah, I know for now we want 874 00:54:32,120 --> 00:54:34,520 to thank you for joining us for the Battery Insiders podcast. 875 00:54:35,000 --> 00:54:37,120 Lord Turner, this was absolute pleasure for conversation. 876 00:54:37,120 --> 00:54:40,680 I think great insights, you know, on the market and and 877 00:54:40,680 --> 00:54:42,600 getting understanding where we stand and where we can go. 878 00:54:43,560 --> 00:54:46,320 All the listeners today on the Battery Insiders podcast. 879 00:54:46,320 --> 00:54:48,000 If you enjoy these conversations, you will listen 880 00:54:48,000 --> 00:54:50,400 more of them. Please make sure to subscribe on 881 00:54:50,400 --> 00:54:53,560 Spotify, Apple podcast, YouTube, or anywhere else where you 882 00:54:53,560 --> 00:54:55,240 listen to this podcast. We'd love to hear from you. 883 00:54:55,240 --> 00:54:56,920 I feel free to share your feedback with us. 884 00:54:57,280 --> 00:54:59,720 Always great to hear that. And yeah, for today, Lord 885 00:54:59,720 --> 00:55:01,120 Turner, thanks so much for joining. 886 00:55:01,120 --> 00:55:02,640 This was. Thank you very much indeed. 887 00:55:02,880 --> 00:55:04,640 Thank you. Simon and his battery associates 888 00:55:04,640 --> 00:55:05,800 and talk to you soon. Thank you. 889 00:55:06,280 --> 00:55:06,600 Bye bye.