But every other cycle there was kind of like this discount that
Bitcoin could go to 0 potentially.
But at this point, I think it's really hard to make that
argument. I really do.
People can try, but I mean, you just, there's, it's just not,
you're going to have to use a lot of logical fallacies.
I I don't see a really an argument for it at this point.
All right, Plan C Welcome to Bitcoin for Millennials.
Yeah, thanks for having me. Looking forward to it.
Always looking for always fun talking about Bitcoin.
And then I'm a bit of a nerd, so I love talking about the the
data and stuff. But no, I really appreciate you
having me on the show and look forward to getting into it.
Yeah, well, I appreciate you coming on.
I mean, I've had different conversations about the math
behind Bitcoin and I think what you are working on is an
extension to what I've talked about before.
So I personally find that very interesting.
And I also think it can help people to, yeah, build
conviction over time. You know, like there's a lot of
headlines, there's a lot of YouTube titles, there's a lot of
super bullish podcasts and people.
And that's, that's all fun, of course, but I personally think,
and, and it's also something that's helped me in my
conviction there is a mathematical truth, or at least
something is happening mathematically behind the
adoption of of Bitcoin and just diving deeper into that.
I think it's very interesting. And so, so before we go into
your model, I just kind of wanted to touch briefly on on
how this all started for you. Like what led you to to dive
deep in analyzing Bitcoin with with all these mathematical
models and and what makes it so intriguing for you?
Yeah, absolutely. So it's been, it's been a fun
journey. It's been a crazy roller coaster
journey for those people that have been in, you know, crypto
and Bitcoin for a while. I'm sure lots of crazy stories,
obviously. But for me it started kind of in
late 2017. So I was running a a business
owner of a business and one of the employees basically had had
a Bitcoin and he said, you know, I bought this Bitcoin at 200.
I think it was like 2000 Canadian or something.
He's like, I'm going to sell it at 2020 thousand Canadian.
He basically wanted it like the 10X.
And so he told he happened to start talking about Bitcoin
around October, November. I believe it was because
obviously the price was going up.
He's getting closer to his targets.
And I was not like Bitcoin and crypto was not on my radar.
I had a startup business. I was so focused.
I was working 8000 hour weeks focused on this business.
We've been open a couple years. And so I was like, totally not
in that realm, but he started talking about it.
And then I happen to be checking the price over a period of days.
And it coincided with the major parabolic peak we had in 2017.
And so I'm texting with him and like, dude, this thing's going
up like this. The price is changing, you know,
$1000 every couple hours here. What's happening?
Like what's going on? So I didn't, I didn't hold any
Bitcoin, but I was living, you know, in a way, through him.
Happy for the guy, right? And that kind of brought around
on my radar. And so after that, I kind of got
addicted, so to speak, like all of 2018, you know, I went
through the whole crypto shit coin, you know, like a lot of
people have to go through. So I went through that in 2018.
It was a wild ride, as you remember, you know, that was
when we're these these IC OS and all this craziness.
So I went through that whole experience and just kept
researching, kept, you know, listening to tons of Bitcoin
podcasts and and and crypto too at the time.
And then finally it collect. It took a while, but it finally
clicked with me just before actually the the 2020 crash.
It's like I was just fortunate. It was the timing.
It really clicked with me that I needed to be a Bitcoin.
And so even though I had lost money up until that point, some
of the money I had lost in, in alts, I'd only put in not, not
all my, my money. I'd put in like a relatively
small percentage, luckily. And so like, you know what I'm
going to put in, I kind of went crazy.
So even retirement accounts, I, I liquidated what we have in
Canada called Rs PS, you know, and just put everything I could
possibly put in. And I, and I happen to getting
at the very low of, of the 2020 crash, but I got in at a really
good price levels and I've just held ever since, to be honest.
I've wrote it, I wrote all the Bitcoin.
I've just huddled, you know, kept it the, the whole write up,
you know, during I, I started to kind of research indicators and
things kind of going into I guess 21/20/21.
But anyways, wrote it all the way up, wrote all the way down
during the FTX had a lot of conviction at that point.
So I'm like, you know what, I believe in this.
I'm just going to hold it. And I, and I felt comfortable
this cycle. I mean, I've been through
multiple cycles, but this cycle I have been so calm.
It's amazing. Like having, having math and,
and these models and just having the understanding of Bitcoin,
all these things combined for me has made it so that I've just
been so low stress this cycle and I, and I haven't even posted
as much content because I've been working on other things.
I'm not, I'm not really that concerned about Bitcoin, to be
honest. I check in on it, but I mean
cycle before I was checking the price all the time, right?
Couple times a day, whatever. Now it's like couple times a
week. Like I, I just, I mean, it, it
obviously, you know, as we get closer to what I think will the,
the peak will be, I'll be checking in more and I'll be
watching all the models and indicators more.
But this period I'm just like, I know what's happening.
Like we're just flushing out old, old early Bitcoiners.
We got to work through this and, and I'm just kind of patiently
waiting. So but yeah, sorry about the
long ramp, but that's, yeah, it's basically been my journey.
I mean, I, as far as the, the research side of things, I've
been full time by the last five years, I've been fortunate to be
full time, just rich researching and learning about Bitcoin and
really focused on modeling Bitcoin.
It's, it's been kind of a mission of mine.
And it, it's, I went through this like on chain phase where
I, you don't have the top tier subscription to glass.
So that I looked through all their metrics and indicators.
I looked into TA, you know, I looked into kind of like all the
different ways you can analyze Bitcoin.
And ultimately it's, it's now a statistical model which I find
the most useful. And for me, yeah.
Anyways. Yeah, awesome.
Thanks. Thanks for that introduction.
I think that is that is awesome to to learn.
So when we move to your model, the Bitcoin quantile model,
yeah, I think it's getting more and more attention, right,
Because people are thinking about, OK, how can I predict
wherever this cycle is going to go and then act on that, right.
And so while some of my listeners are familiar with the
Bitcoin power law, because that is what this is, I don't want to
say an extension to, but I think it came after the power law and
it uses the power law or you use the power law in your model.
So I've discussed the power law a few times on the podcast.
People can check my conversations with Giovanni
Santostasi or Steven Perrineau and Smitty also with the I'm a
Retirement guide where I talked a lot about it.
But maybe before we move on to your Bitcoin quantile model,
kind of briefly explain what the power law is and why you can use
it for the model that that you are building.
Yeah. So, so over, you know, last five
years really kind of looking everywhere to see OK, where,
where are the tools and where are the indicators and, and in
what ways you know, can I actually understand Bitcoin
cycles? And one thing I really found
from looking through all the on chain stuff in glass node and,
and really a lot of the indicators that were out there
is there was this diminishing, diminishing peaks.
So it was really hard for a lot of these indicators.
Like you have the MVRV, some people are familiar with that
one, but you know, you have the Z square MVRV or whatever.
So you have these peaks up, but the problem is every cycle
they're kind of going down and you're not sure to what degree
they're going to go down. And so with the power law, like
this was something I basically became aware of just over a year
ago. Now probably you're, you're in a
bit and I'm like, OK, this, this is interesting to me.
This is very interesting because, you know, understanding
the math behind it. I mean, I did a deep dive on the
power law initially and just to fully understand it.
And I'm like, OK, this, this is very useful as far as like a
long term approximation. You know, you can draw what's
called an OLS regression, which is basically just a line through
the the data set. So we look at the power law,
you're looking at log of price versus the log of hours since
the Bitcoin genesis block or log of days or whatever you want to
do, but you're looking at basically price versus time.
Those are the like, that's what you're looking at.
And so the log of price versus log of time.
And so it's, it's more of an observation, the power law, in
my opinion, you know, because you have to still create a model
around it. So the power law itself, it's
like, OK, here's an observation. We can see there seems to be a
pattern here. But if you just draw a line
through that, it's really not that useful.
I mean, you basically like, OK, so we have a, a trend line, you
could say, or we have, you know, that you can, you do like it's
called a median regression or a mean regression where you're
basically just drawing a line through the data.
And so that that doesn't really tell you necessarily where you
are in reference to that line. You can look at like standard
deviations of things. There's, there are ways you can
kind of approximate. But regardless, the the issue
was that there was this for the, for the peaks of the cycles,
there was a clear downtrend that was not being accounted for.
So if you just took that middle, middle line and you extended
that up, you know, it it wasn't, it would didn't hit the peaks.
And if you kind of put it at the bottom, it was more accurate.
The bottom, bottom 50% of the data is, is more falling that
power law. But the top 50%, it's a
completely different pattern. And no one had really, up until
that point, no one really modeled it that well.
And so, yeah, anyways, I mean, essentially I just, I just, I
just went on this journey of like trying to figure out how to
best understand and model the peaks of the cycles.
And and for me it was more about figuring out OK within the data
set. Where are we?
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That's gemini.com/brom. Like how can we mathematically
define where we are within the data set?
Meaning how many days have we traded above this point?
How many days have we traded below what percentage days, what
percentage above and below? Because that gives you a
reference point at least based on the math and all the
historical data we have, roughly speaking, where we are.
And so to me that that started to make it useful.
And so, yeah, I mean that that's really to a large extent the
journey I went on and, and I collaborated like I, you know,
I've had calls with lots of other great analysts, you know,
and, and, and we kind of racked our brains and, and really the,
the big breakthrough for for me was quantile regression.
That's kind of a so which which we'll see on some of these
charts we'll share and stuff. But yeah, how much did you want
me to keep going? Or maybe have another question?
Yeah, No, I think, I think this is great, right?
Because what I loved when I discovered the power law is
that, I mean, I don't have a math background, but I was just
very intrigued by the supposedly predictive nature of this,
right? And I think that's also how
Giovanni talks about the power law that well, apparently
Bitcoin grows like a power law, right?
Like that, that was the discovery.
And so I really like how you are now making it practical.
And so I think that's a great bridge to, yeah, talking about
how your quantile model works, right.
So could you try to explain in, in simple terms how the quantile
model predicts these Bitcoin price ranges?
What do the quantiles represent? And yeah, how how can this
approach help people to, to get insights on, on the on the price
behaviour. I have some charts that I can
pull up. I don't know if you if you want
to pull off the the median 1. Yeah, for sure we can.
We could definitely get in the charts.
What what, what is modeling like?
Why is it useful? Like why, why is this a worthy
pursuit, right? You know, Bitcoin just goes up
into the right, like that's what a lot of people say or all the
models will break anyways, right.
But the thing for me is, is, you know, you can, you can research
Bitcoin and people get conviction in different ways.
For some people, you know, they just really need to understand
Bitcoin, They need to understand certain elements of it, you
know, geopolitics, whatever. They have their own ways of
getting conviction. But there's a percentage of
people that like to see charts and they like to see, there's a
lot of, you know, guys in Bitcoin and crypto and
mathematical minded. And so for us, like having a
tool, we can visually kind of zoom out.
I look at it as a way of zooming out because throughout the
cycle, inevitably there's going to be moments where our emotions
are tested, right? And, and if you're being, if
you're being influenced to, to a degree by your emotions, it's
OK, Obviously we're influenced to a degree, but if it's
excessive, it can cause us to make bad decisions.
And so I look at these tools as ways of first coming conviction
long term. If you're going to hold for a
very long time, it gives you that, you know, additional
conviction. But then also, you know, for
people that maybe don't have that extreme conviction yet, it,
it's, it gives them a little bit of a way of kind of calming your
emotions at times throughout the cycle and being like, you know
what, we're just kind of where we're supposed to be.
There's nothing abnormal here, even if it feels abnormal, some
crazy headline, you know, there's, there's panic on, on
social media. Social media tends to amplify
everything anyway. So it, it, it makes it even
worse than it is. But but you know, during those
moments of some people might have panic or whatever it, it
kind of brings you zooms, zooms you out and just says, look, you
know what? We're kind of where we're
supposed to be anyway. So OK, so, so this image here,
what this is showing, just to keep it super simple, based on
the Y axis on the left, you know that.
So that's, that's price. So the way it's being drawn
there is is not using actual price numbers, but it it's
basically price on the left and then on the on the bottom you
have hours since the Bitcoin genesis block.
So with the quantile model, I'm actually using our hourly data.
So the cool thing about using hourly data is you have like
132,000 data points at this point.
So it's a ton of data and it's really useful because when we're
looking at the upper quantiles, even the top 1% of the data set,
we still have a 1300 data points.
So I like to use the hourly data.
And so basically, yeah, the X axis there is our since the
Bitcoin genesis block. And then on the Y axis we have
time. And so I like to look at it in
this way. You can look at it in in log,
log. So, so some people, sorry, some
people don't understand this. You can actually visually look
at something and have the X&Y axis is different than the
actual math. So the math behind this is log
versus log. But the visual I'm showing is
log linear. And the reason why is it's so
much more intuitive. If you're looking at the Y axis
log and the X axis log, you just see the straight line.
But The thing is humans perceive time linearly.
We don't perceive time log. So it it really condenses the
end of the chart and makes it confusing for people to kind of
understand. So I find this view personally a
lot better and more intuitive. So on this chart where you have
the red line, what that represents is basically a median
regression. And so it's a 0.5 quantile
regression. What that means is 50% of the
data points. So if you take all 132,000 data
points for Bitcoin, all the hours since the very beginning,
basically you have 50% of the data that falls below that line,
50% that falls above that line. And so it's a mathematical
formula, but essentially it creates that line.
So this you could call as like the trend line, or you could
call, some people might call it fair value.
You know, you could argue if it's fair value or not, but it's
a pretty good approximation. But yeah, I don't know if you
have any specific questions, but it it just, it's, it's actually
the starting point for my model. So the model has multiple steps,
but the starting point is simply doing a what's called a quantile
regression or a median regression.
Yeah. And so the median is the
starting point to go up and down to eventually predict or show to
a degree what eventually all the different segments are, right.
I'm just. I'm just rephrasing or or or or
replying to to make it more simple as I'm not.
Yeah, no, appreciate that. Don't make it definitely useful
to do. So the first thing I noticed
when I when I saw this, but also that the power law graph is you
and I also don't like the diminishing returns idea, but
you kind of you kind of do see it, right?
Maybe I shouldn't say I don't like it, but I don't understand
it as there, you know, conceptually when I think about
absolute finite supply combined with logically overtime an
infinite amount of demand as the reason of existence, right?
The problem with the debasement of the currency will be more
clear to more people, more people will try to find a way
out, right? So the demand will, will go up,
at least conceptually in my head.
But in practice, you see that there's something else
happening. Doesn't mean it, it cannot
change. But that was for me like 1 of
the things where I was like, OK, that's interesting because I
would suspect like a supply squeeze at some point.
But in this, in these 15 years, we've seen that it actually it
does grow, right? But there are diminishing
returns up until now, we have to say.
Yeah, Yeah, that's definitely. I mean, in a way I understand
that people kind of might be averse to that initially because
it's like, OK, you know, we're never going to see those gains
back that we had in 2013. But you have to understand it's
there's also a stabilization element, there's a less
volatility element, the people back in 2013, I mean.
There was way more volatile the, the, the, the trend of
volatility actually has gone down over the course of
Bitcoin's history, very similar to the diminishing returns.
There's a clear reduction of volatility, a pattern that no
one can deny since the beginning of Bitcoin.
And so, you know, there's less fluctuations in the price, it's
more stable, there's thicker order books.
There's lots of ways you can speak to this, you know, higher
market cap, more clear adoption, you know, so all these all these
things are making it less, it's easier to hold now than it was
in 2013. I mean, you got, we got to think
about it relatively speaking, OK, maybe there was potentially
more gains back then. However, you know, the people
back then had to have a lot of a lot of conviction because they
didn't know all the things we know now how much Bitcoin has
been adopted and, and it's there's a lot of maybes back
then. Now there's things that have
actually occurred. Plus the volatility is way down.
And so people don't have to, you know, hold through those as
extreme periods, although of course there's still going to be
some extreme periods. But so it's, it's, I mean, it's
just what it is, what it is. I mean, all we can do.
My, my personal thing is I just want to present the data the way
it is. I mean, I can say, I can say
something that's not true if you want, you know, I can say like,
oh, we're going to go to, you know, 5 million next month.
It's, it's just, it's not the reality of any pattern we're
seeing now. If U.S. dollar completely
collapses, you know, people don't understand how dangerous a
world it would be to live in if Bitcoin went to 5 million
tomorrow. Like you don't want that.
You want this kind of healthy adoption over time.
And that's really how a lot of these networks have have gained
adoption. Like the Internet, you know, you
could say, or there's so many other examples of networks and,
and Bitcoin is a, is a, it is a network.
It is a financial asset obviously as well.
So it's, it's complex. There's a lot of elements.
It's kind of a network, a network of networks, so to
speak. But yeah, it's to me, I'm fine
with the diminishing returns because there's still tons of
returns left and it's easier now to hold Bitcoin than ever.
And if, if there is some sort of a collapse of the system in the
short term, yeah, we might, we might see even bigger, we might,
we might get even bigger returns than expected.
I still think the overall trend is diminishing returns because
you just need so much more money to keep those returns.
Like as the market cap grows, it just, there's only so much money
in the world, right? Or, or so much denominated Fiat,
whatever value. So anyways, it's a whole nother.
It's a whole deep conversation of itself, the whole diminishing
returns. But I'll just show you the data.
And then I mean, it's it's it's definitely still very bullish as
far as lots of gains, you know, coming chill.
And yeah, we're not too late so to speak, right?
No, I I think it's great because like I'm saying that I don't
like the diminishing returns because I'd rather see some sort
of short squeeze, but that's just what I really want to see.
I think actually seeing the math has definitely helped me.
Also my conviction over time and what you said, like this cycle,
I am super chill, right? Like whether we go up and down
even when we hit, you know, the hundred 2425, I'm like, yeah,
OK, of course we hit that right. Like that's so it's, it's, it's,
I think more conviction to a degree, but also more
foundational, right? Like I'm, I'm, I'm, I'm content
with my choice going all in on this.
Like that's how I'm following it now.
And it's just different also emotionally than 2017 so.
Yeah, yeah, the next one there, so, yeah, yeah.
And so the very last thing on the last topic is if people, you
know, I'm not telling people what to do for sure, but there
are ways to get exposure to more volatility while still being
connected to Bitcoin. And, and we're speaking on
Bitcoin today. I don't really, you know, we
don't have to speak on other things, but you know, there are
still other ways. If you have long term conviction
of Bitcoin that you can, you know, potentially hold something
like MicroStrategy or some other, you know, vehicle that
gives you potentially, you know, kind of reverses the clock back
five years and you might have some of that volatility that
existed back then still. But it's all about conviction of
Bitcoin at the end of the day for me.
So yeah, this this chart here. So basically what I did with the
first chart is we, we created that initial line in the middle
of the data set. So 50% of the data above, 50%
below, you know, 50% of the days above and below.
And then what we've done is we've actually, what I did is
actually removed all the data above that line.
So I actually removed that data. And then this is just the data,
the bottom 50% of the data set. And then what I did is I did
another, it's called an, you could call it an iterative
median quantile regression. So essentially you know, you're
finding again now the the midpoint of this bottom 50% of
the data set. And so the reason why this is
valuable is essentially what you're doing is you're saying,
OK, what's the trend for the bottom 50%, right.
The bottom 50% over time seems to be more stable.
This is more, you could say the power law, you know, part of the
data set or whatever, but it's essentially it's, it's a very
stable and very consistent. The bottoms are, are have
actually followed very similar patterns.
You know, the tops are a little bit harder to model, but
essentially with this, you get a with this line by creating this,
this median quantum regression line here, I'm basically saying,
you know, there's 50% of the data, 50% above and below for
the bottom 50% of the data set. So in this case, it's 25% below,
25% above. And so the reason why this is
useful is this, this line now taking into account 50% of the
data, it's a very useful trend line that we can actually take.
And then we can basically, you know, use it and we can we can
then pinpoint different parts of the data set.
Because for, for me, you, when you're doing quantum regression,
you want to have a shared slope for sections of the data because
otherwise there's a potential for crossing of quantiles like
way out into the future. So I like this is a very clean
way of doing it where you essentially say, OK, here's my
trend line for the bottom 50%. And now what I'm going to do is
take that and we can move that up and down to essentially
assess, you know, you can basically take the same slope
and intercept, it's called of that line.
And then we can say, OK, but let's move it down so that only
5% of the data is below it or 10% of the data is bloat or
whatever we want to do. So this is and, and it's based
on again, a lot of data. And this is a median regression
line. And the, the thing about
quantile regression and medium regression is it's robust
outliers. So it actually statistically is
a very good way of doing it. It's better than in my opinion,
than doing a mean regression, which is an anyways.
We don't need to go on the statistics stuff as much.
No, no, go ahead. But I think it's because because
the maybe use why you find it better?
Like what's the what? So immediate, just to keep it
super simple, the median quantile regression, what it's
what it's so good at. Again, you can't do this with
other types of regressions like it.
It's able to basically you can pinpoint exactly how much data
you want below, above and below the line, the regression line,
but also it doesn't overly emphasize outliers.
So if you have, you know, data that is just just a random
outlier, it doesn't skew the data set.
It, it really focuses on the core trend.
So I would say it's, it's exceptionally good at capturing
the core trend and just kind of being less, less affected by
noise or outliers in the data. And, and again, by using as much
that as we are and using a quantum regression line, I just
feel it's, it's the most solid way to create these trend lines.
And so basically we have, you know, the main trend line, which
is the middle of the data set. And now we have this, you know,
iterative bottom line that we've now drawn where we have 25% of
the overall data set above and below it.
So yeah, that's basically it's a combination of steps to get to
the model. You'll see.
But we're getting. We're getting.
Yeah, yeah, yeah. No, we're, we're, we're going
through the steps. I'm trying to look up, I don't
know if you've ever heard that, but I, I, I find it really cool
that you use the hourly data, right?
So you have so many data points. I don't know if you've heard
like, you know, most of the Bitcoin gains are made in like
I'm going to say 10 days in the cycle.
I don't know if it's 10 or it could be less right, but maybe
you know the real number but. Like, yeah, it is important to
use hourly dot in my opinion. It's not easy to get hourly dot,
but it is useful. And the reason why is because
ultimately, you know, when we are kind of closer to the peaks,
I mean, to me trying to sell the exact peak, that's really not
what it's about. It's it's about, you know, kind
of for the people that want to sell a percentage of their
Bitcoin or whatever, you can ladder out kind of around the
peak. So, but the price does
potentially move pretty quickly, at least that's what we've seen
historically. And so having access to hourly
data just gives us more updates on where we are within the data
set. And it's just also I just, it's
just more data. It's it's quite a bit more data.
You're 24 times more so and like and like you and like you said,
right. I mean, you know, there's the
gains are, are in a a relatively small period of period of time
historically. So it's good to have that
granularity for all the data within those periods.
So when we are looking at the top, you know, 5% of the data
set, we still have a significant amount of data that way by using
hourly data. So that's basically the reason.
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That's BR AM to get 15% of. Your order yeah, yeah, now
that's that's exactly why I said like the granularity because
there aren't just that many days, right And it's at the left
you said I have 24 times more data.
I said oh wow. But then I was like, yeah, of
course there's no. I mean, but it but it I I for me
too. It's the same thing.
I was like looking, I'm like, OK, I have the data set, OK,
6000 something data points. I'm like, OK, that's pretty
good. Daily is pretty good.
And then I, I did the hourly, I'm like 130 something thousand
data points. I'm like, of course, I mean,
it's 24 times more, but it just clicked to me how much more data
it really is. Like when you're downloading the
file and stuff, you're like, OK, this is this is more data.
So yeah, it's definitely a big jump.
And then from there you can actually even go to 10 minute
data, which I had access to in the past, but I actually don't
think there's a big difference there.
I actually think hourly is kind of, in my opinion anyways,
everyone, everyone have their own opinions.
I think it's better than 10 minute for this use case. 10
minute you can actually start to get affected more by too much
glanularity, too much potential noise.
So and it's not as accurate on the 10 minutes sometimes.
So anyways, the hourly is kind of the the Goldilocks zone for
me. Yeah.
And then the next chart here. So, So what I've done now is we
take that from the last chart just to explain it.
We take that, that now that trend fit for the bottom 50% of
the data. And I actually take that and I,
and I actually, I know this sounds crazy, but I basically
use that, that slope and intercept to, to make 999 fits.
So the reason why is or sorry, sorry, 505 hundred fits.
And the, and the reason why is because at every .1 quantile, I
actually have a line drawn all the way from 0.1 all the way up
to 0.50.01, I should say anyways, but basically point 1%
of the data all the way up to 50%.
So there's actually 500 fits in the bottom 50% of the data set
using that exact a regression line.
But then we move it up and down so that we can have that way
the, the lines will never cross. There's never some people say
like, oh, quantum regression, you'll have crossing not when
you use a global slope. It's actually a very good
statistical way to do it because there's no chance you'll ever
have crossing of these lines because they're basically there.
It's a family of fits you, you from all the way from 0.1
percent all the way up to 50% of the data.
We have 500 fits now and that way we can pinpoint exactly
where we are within the data set using that.
And So what you're seeing here now on this chart, I did that
last step and then I basically, I actually took that same fit
and I actually used it on the 0.5 quantile regression line.
So I actually overrode that first fit because this the new
fit. I wanted to say, OK, from there,
what I want to do now that I have this, this trend for the
bottom 50% of the data set from there I want to analyze the top
50%, right? That's the next step.
Naturally, OK, we understand the bottom 50%.
We have a really good trend. We, we've created all our, our
500 fits. And then from there, now we want
to look at the top half. And so I basically replace that,
that initial median fit with the the new one because it's
actually the right way to do it. It's just a, it's just a better
statistical way to do it. And then because because
otherwise the top 50% of the data is actually influencing
that initial fit. I don't know if that makes
sense, but that initial line we had through the the very first
chart, that's, that's the middle fit of the top and the bottom
half, right? So it's being influenced by the
outliers on the top. So even though it's a median
quantum regression, I talked about it being robust to
outliers, there still is an influence to a degree of of, of
incorporating that top 50. So I instead use the actual
trend from the bottom half to create that line again in the
middle. So actually recreate this line
now using the trend from the bottom half.
It's it's, it's, it's a detailed thing.
People don't need to understand that.
It's just like, I'm all, all, all to say is that every step of
the way I'm looking to optimize this model like it's, it's just
the best way to do it. And So what this is, is actually
multiples, if people understand. So it's, it's multiples versus
the trend line. So now we have the, we've
redrawn the mean so that that middle line from the first
image, we we have that now. And from there we can actually
look at a ratio. So how many times do we go above
that line and and a ratio? And so a ratio of one would be
the trend line, right? If, if we go, if, if the price
went twice as high back in whatever time period, that would
be a ratio of two. So that those numbers on the
left you're seeing those are the ratios versus the trend line
since the very beginning of Bitcoin.
And so you can see that first peak, right?
We went up to like 28 times. So the price was 28 times higher
than the trend line than that, than that median regression.
And you can see, you know, as 2013 went to about 15/20/18 or
2017 at the end of 2718. You know, it's, it's hard to see
exactly, but it's like maybe 8 or 7.
So there's a clear trend of diminishing returns.
I mean, people can deny it, but it's visually apparent.
I mean, it's just the fact of of what it is, but so yeah, that
that's basically it. So you have one is the is the
trend line on this on this chart.
And you can just visually see how high we've gone above the
trend, which is the middle of the day.
I said how high we've gone above it since the beginning and you
can see it visually. That's basically.
So what are your thoughts? I guess visually seen that I
don't know if you've ever seen. When I look at this, it seems I
know my translation if I look at the bottom right would be we are
going sideways but slightly below or slightly above.
But the just from my eye like the that we could still go quite
a bit higher until we're still lower than the previous one.
Basically around the one around like 2021 basically.
So my translation here would be, and that's kind of the sentiment
I'm seeing also like on the on the access that the real Bull
run isn't really like, isn't really here.
This is more like a sideways type, yeah.
Bull crab, we're in like a light bulb crab market or something.
Yeah, I mean, and, and I would agree with that, but also just
looking back, I mean, let's just think about things logically.
So if we had the multiple that we had back in, in the initial
peak or let's just use 2013. So, so for that one, it say it
went let's just say 15 times, right.
So if the trend line right now, I believe let me just double
check where we are. So if the trend line right now
is around 100, it's a bit over 100K or or yeah, it's around 100
Ki believe so that would. Be the price at recording is
116, so you know slight slightly above.
Exactly. Yeah, we're above the trend
line. So, but the trend line say it's
just as a simple math, say it's at 100 roughly speaking right
now the trend line. So that's kind of like fair
value you could argue or whatever.
If we had the same blow off peak we had at the first one, that
means Bitcoin would get to 2.6 million this year.
Do you understand or or sorry the 2013 let's use I said 2013.
So that peak we had that second peak got to 16 times the trend
line. So that would be 1.6 million.
So for us to have an equivalent peak as far as over like
exuberance or, or parabolic top or, you know, however you want
to find it, euphoria, we'd have to get to 1.6 million for us to
equal what we did last or 2017. We'd have to get to say roughly
800,000. And then, you know, I I can't
see exactly, but let's say 4 or 500 for last cycles peak.
So that that kind of puts things in perspective, right?
Like these, these are huge peaks that we saw in the past, like we
went way above trend line, right?
So we don't have to go insane about trend line to still have
great returns. But I mean, for this pattern to
break, we would have to probably go well over 500,000 this year,
right? So it could happen.
I mean, everything's possible. I just the patterns aren't
showing up. But that is, yeah.
I don't know what your thoughts are, but.
Well, yeah, this is exactly where kind of my conceptual
understanding of Bitcoin clashes with the math, right.
So I would say that the more people understand why Bitcoin
exists, why they should have Bitcoin, why they should hold it
over any other financial asset as Bitcoin is superior.
You know I would. I would, logically.
Conclude. That at some point there will be
this short squeeze or or or like supply shock, right?
Just again, just because I think the demand will grow and the
supply will slowly dry up because, yeah, I mean, I don't
know about you, but I always say like, sell for what?
Like what, what should I sell it for, right.
So I, I, I do understand that there are a lot of like old Ogs
that have thousands of coins, right?
And they would be selling. I mean, yes, I also agree to
that. But you know, if not this year,
then maybe maybe in 20-30 or something, right?
Like at at some point conceptually, I do think there's
there's going to be this, this clash, right?
But then on the other hand, looking at this, yeah, there's
also kind of looks like a trend, right?
Like my only counter argument to some degree here would be, you
know, this is only the 4th cycle.
You know what? I'm which is a fair which is a
fair argument. I mean, I would.
Say my only argument. Yeah.
And it, and again, like it's not like it would be completely
impossible for this pattern to break.
I mean, like you said, it's only so many cycles.
So that's completely fair and of course I would welcome that.
I mean, if it, but I I do believe there'll be an element
of the US dollar having to lose its stability for that to occur.
But yeah, I mean, it's, it's an interesting conversation.
I mean, couple, couple things. I do agree with you that even
even though a lot of people are starting to understand that, you
know, as far as all the options out there, Bitcoin, you know,
what else are you going to hold like you once you start really
understanding Bitcoin? The thing I would say though is
as the price goes up, for everyone that does sell, you do
need more capital coming in, right?
You do need a higher amount of capital coming in.
So that's why I celebrate when large amounts of Bitcoin are
sold at lower prices, because I would rather have a ton of money
selling at 100,000 versus the same Bitcoin selling at a
million because that so people understand like when, when they,
when you have these announcements, oh, whatever some
whale is, is cashing out 10,000 Bitcoin or whatever, that's
awesome. That's great because we know
bitcoins going higher and if they hold, if that, if that
whale holds, you know, to a million, it now takes 10 times
more capital to get that person out of the market because they
will sell eventually. I mean, yes, there are going to
be vehicles to borrow against your Bitcoin.
I think that will be an another X Factor in the future.
And, and we're not really there yet, but we're, you know, it's,
it's trending in that direction, of course.
But I, I would also say like, even as scarce as Bitcoin is,
time is scarcer time is, I call it unknown scarcity.
So Bitcoins known scarcity, time is unknown scarcity.
No one knows how much time they have left in this reality.
So because of that, I actually think time is more valuable than
Bitcoin. And so personally, I think that
if someone, you know, got in super early to Bitcoin, it's
actually a little bit irresponsible in a lot of ways
to hold all your Bitcoin forever.
And the reason why I would say that is because you don't know
how much time you have. And so it doesn't, it doesn't
have to be a binary thing where you sell all your Bitcoin or you
sell none of your Bitcoin. But I do think, you know, for
people that got in super early, it starts to become just a
mathematical equation where you say, look, this is going to
change my life. I could go on life changing or
memories I'll have forever with my family, you know, these
moments that are more valuable than any any asset.
So to be able to change your life in a very meaningful way
and to be able to maximize the time we have with the people we
love, those are great use cases. It's not like you're going to go
buy some stock. I I think that's kind of silly.
But if, but if you are going to cash out a percentage of
Bitcoin, I also think it's silly to sell everything.
But that's just my opinion. I'm not giving any financial
advice, but you know, just to sell some of it at some point
for the people that got in early, it just makes sense.
I mean, you can do stuff that in your life with the people you
love, like I already said, that you'll have forever.
And, and to me, that's, that's very, yeah, it's just that
that's how I look at it anyways. But I totally understand the
ethos of just hold it all forever, right?
But yeah, I, I just think it heavily.
People will sell, people hit targets.
And, and that's why I don't think Bitcoin, you know, the
scarcity thing is a bit overblown.
Some people might not like to hear that.
It's just my view is because at a certain price, if Bitcoin was
$100 million tomorrow, everyone's selling.
I mean, your life is completely changed.
Like you like, I mean, most people are going to sell
something like if it's a million tomorrow, most people are going
to sell something. So at a certain price, Ogs and
people that got in will, will sell like people hit targets,
you know, whatever. And also emergencies happen in
life, bills come, whatever. Like you can't be.
So anyways, that's a. That's a whole other long
conversation. I mean, I, I agree with that and
I also think that that is what people are doing.
Maybe while we're talking, I came up with another argument
and I wonder, I wonder what you think of that because on the, on
the flip side, I still think we are very early like, I don't
know about you, but I, I, I don't believe there's 100
million Bitcoin holders in the US.
Like whenever everyone talks about that, right?
Like I, I. No, no, it's not.
Not with the mean amount, no. And and not Maybe you have an,
maybe you have an exchange with like dusted or something or
whatever they own. Yeah.
But like the amount that you that would be enough for you to
sell 20% when it hits like 250K or something, right, Right.
So there is a lot of people from back in the day that have
thousands of coins, right. And so those will definitely
cash in to some degree to to buy time.
I fully agree with that. So if you go with the idea that
I don't know, maybe in the entire world, right, even if
there's 50 million people that hold a significant amount of
Bitcoin that they would sell a percentage of at a certain
point, that is still very small in adoption, right?
I cannot do the calculation quickly, but so I'm thinking
about this, right. So what we're seeing here, wait,
I'll show this first is OK, So we are growing, but the growth
is slowing to a degree, right? And you can say, OK, that is
because you need more money to actually move the market cap,
right? But at the same time, we're also
seeing that these hollow waves, right?
So the amount of time that that coins don't move is also slowly.
Creeping up. Right.
So I think three years is mid 50s percent, Yeah, I think
between 55 and 60%, which I think is a lot, right, three
years, imagine that. So all the one.
Year is really high, but yeah. Yeah, OK.
But but but I'm saying three years because then you went
through this, this, this, this, this bear market, right.
It went a lot down, now a lot up.
I mean, those are the people like you and me that understand
what this is, right? And that are also thinking
about, OK, but sell for what? Like what if I well, if I know
this model, if I know the power law model, this is up forever,
right? So OK, so in this one we see
growth, but it's slowing down. We see the whole of waves going
up. And then I'm thinking because
you mentioned network, I had to think about, you know a lot of
people or like Chris Kuiper or you're in Timmer like these
fidelity guys that talk about S curve adoption, which is usually
seen in. Social.
Networks, yeah, yes. And so networks, technological
products, etcetera, right. We have this point, which is the
chasm, you know, so we so I'm thinking I just, I just came up
with the argument, but I wonder what you think is that when you
look at this, maybe we are around here because this this is
a battle, right? Like crossing the chasm from
early adopters to early, early majority is a battle like in a
lot of technologies or or social platforms or whatever like this
is this is where a lot of products die basically because
they cannot make make that jump. And so if we are somewhere
around here. Sorry where you're pointing.
I'm just trying to see where you're pointing.
On the Oh, sorry. So if we're somewhere around
like before, yeah, you don't see my cursor, but like somewhere
before the chasm basically that's.
I think we're after the. Point.
I think we're actually a past the yeah, I think we are.
I think this. Yeah, I don't.
I, I think, I think just past it or, or you could say going
through it, you could say, or before it, I mean, you could
argue before it. Of course, I'm not saying I'm
right. I'm, I'm saying you could make
an argument before, after, during the chasm, for sure.
I think we're around that, around that point, though.
I agree with you. That's why I'm saying maybe that
is why it is slowing that. That would be my point in this
argument that I just came up with this.
This is a chaos as this is a a battle type period in a case
fighting for yeah, basically the life of this technology in a
sense, as in any technology, right.
So this is a universal model. It's.
Like, yeah, it's like the the make it or break it moment.
I mean, it's it's entirely possible.
I mean, I would say the the fight now you could define in
different ways, but this cycle what I've kind of personally,
the way I look at the cycle to summarize in a lot of ways is
there's a lot of people with a ton of conviction in Bitcoin.
There really are at this point. I think we've hit a level, I
mean, just because of the amount of institutions, a micro
strategy, obviously seeing a company acquire, you know,
600,000 plus Bitcoin. I mean that that's the kind of
stuff that the traditional kind of minded people just you can't
ignore that. Like you have these these
significant companies with high market caps that are starting to
acquire a lot of Bitcoin. So and there's a lot of smaller
ones for sure, but they're growing.
They're they're they're the market caps are growing as they
adopt Bitcoin. So, so they're becoming bigger
and bigger players in the stock market.
But I mean, there's, there's been enough voices, you know,
Michael Saylor on, on a mainstream.
So like, and, and the president, president stuff and the, you
know, and, and all this stuff about stockpiles and, you know,
different countries adopting. There's kind of the beginning
stages of that. But so because of that, I would
say, you know, we have we have a lot of big players that are
soaking up the old OG sellers. So as we've gone up the cycle,
we've kind of stair stepped up. We spent long correction
periods. It's actually been more about
correcting in time, so to speak, where, you know, you're just
kind of we've been sideways to down for for months and and
people get kind of bored or whatever.
Some people so they're not really in pain.
It's not like all we're down Bitcoins down 50% like it might
have been back in whatever 2017 run up or bitcoins down 40%
overnight and then it bounces back and then it crashes a few
months or a week later, whatever.
Now it's more about these longer consolidation periods where
essentially Bitcoins like, OK, at this period there's a certain
amount of O GS that got in so early that they're looking to
take some profits off the table. They're not selling all their
Bitcoin. I don't think all these O GS are
just cashing out everything, but I think there's so much capital
they have in Bitcoin that they're naturally selling a
percentage at different price levels.
And as they sell and release that, I mean, the good thing
what we're seeing is we're seeing enough big companies and,
and high net worth individuals and also just conviction from
retail that's, that's soaking up that, that selling cell
pressure. Now it's a bit of a battle.
It takes months, we kind of go sideways.
But ultimately we've seen so far the cycle, we've eventually
stepped up to the next level. And so every and so it's very
healthy. I mean, this to me, this is the
healthiest bull run by far. I mean, there's a lot of
positive things I could say. I'm, I'm definitely not a a bear
by any means. I mean, if I come across as a
mathematical bear, somehow, I don't want that to be the case,
but whatever it's people are going to perceive you how
they're going to perceive you. I'm presenting the data, but I'm
a Super Bowl on Bitcoin and, and I mean, how can you not be at
this point, right? So for me, this, this cycle has
been super healthy. And really I mean I love to see
this consolidation at different price levels for months because
we're building strong foundation and we're and I don't think
we're going to see the 80% drop we've seen in a lot of the
previous cycles. I'm actually thinking probably
more in the, in the probably 50%, fifty, 60% range is
probably, it's hard to say, but like I could see that just
because we have built support all the way along this bull
market so far and we're still going to have the probably the
blow off top period. Like I, I don't see us
consolidating for months and then all of a sudden we just
completely crash 80%. Like that's probably not what's
going to happen. Although there are different
types of peaks. You can have a parabolic blow
off peak where where you really steep up and steep down.
That's what we saw in 2013 and 2017.
Now in 2021, we did have a bit of more of a Wyckoff gifts
distribution top, it's called where there's kind of some fake
outs and we actually traded for like, I think it was two months
or so relatively around the peak and, and a lot of people thought
we were going higher and then we eventually did collapse.
So, but, but yeah, I mean, it's Simply put this cycle.
I mean, I, I do think Bitcoin has reached a point where it's,
it's, I mean, whether it's just the beginning of the chasm or we
just passed it, either way, it's become very accepted.
You know, it, there's nothing. I mean, what's the, what's the
major FUD? We've heard the cycle.
I mean, every cycle there's FUD, but what's the like really crazy
FUD? You've heard the cycle about
Bitcoin. Like why is Bitcoin going to go
to 0? Like I think there's I think
there's OK, OK, that's a fair one.
That that's, that is. But but I think that's probably,
yeah, I guess, you know, that's something.
That was like, that's the biggest and the rest is all
recycled 27. Yeah, I think that's the only
one to me that's the only one that has.
I mean, I'm not expert quality, so I can't really speak to that.
But but at least as a narrative, I think that's the only one that
can kind of rival where Bitcoins currently at as far as its
adoption market cap. It would take something
catastrophic, something that you know and so, yeah, we don't need
to talk about that. But, and I think that's a very
low probability and other people can speak to that better.
But besides that, I really don't see any like every other cycle,
there was kind of like this discount that Bitcoin could go
to 0 potentially. But at this point, I think it's
really hard to make that argument.
I really do. People can try, but I mean, you
just, there's, it's just not, you're going to have to use a
lot of logical fallacies. I, I don't see a really an
argument for it at this point. So because of that during the
bear markets, I mean there's that there's not that discount
of Bitcoin could go to 0. And so just like we're seeing
the diminishing returns of the peak, we're also seeing
diminishing returns to a degree in, in the pull backs during the
bear market. And I think this cycle will see
an even bigger one. That's just my my theory
anyways, but. Yeah.
So this is so we, we went through your steps right And
this is the end result basically.
This is the end result. There's a couple more steps that
I, I, we didn't include in slides here, but I can quickly
try to explain simply and talk through them.
So that last chart we, we saw where you can see kind of each
cycle the, the ratios or the multiples versus the trend line
are going down. What you can actually do is
create something that's called a stretched exponential decay.
So I, I looked at a lot of different ways to model the
peaks and stretched exponential decay.
It's called is the actually the, it's, it's just the most
accurate way to model it. I mean, if someone could finds a
better way, that's, that's awesome.
I'd love to see it. I've, I've really spent a crazy
amount of time looking into all the different ways you can model
it. Actually, the way I do it is
I'm, I actually model it with an exponential decay and a
stretched exponential decay. So I do both during the code and
then what it does is it actually assesses which is a better fit.
So I'm not actually even attached to one of the two.
I want to use whichever is best out of the two.
They're kind of cousins. You could say exponential decay,
to put her very simply, is essentially, you know, it's it's
consistent decay rate. So every every X amount of time.
So every say year as a just, or say every four years, whatever,
50% reduction in the peaks that would be exponential.
So it's consistently 50%. Now the thing about something
going down 50% is eventually it flattens out, right?
Just the way that pattern works. You know, people also call it
like a half life, but essentially exponential decay
actually models bitcoins peaks fairly well.
And there are other analysts that have done work on this like
Smithson. Smithson did some phenomenal
work. He was the first person I, I
came across that was doing exponential decay fitting of the
peaks. And it works well.
It could be the actual best way to model it, but I did find
stretch exponential decay is better.
Just just when you, when you look at something called BIC,
which is a way of assessing complexity, so the keep it
simple, the stretch exponential decay has one more variable, but
even factoring in that complexity, it's still a better
fit, it's still a better model. So essentially we take that
stretch exponential decay fit. And then what I did here is I
did, I actually take the top 1% of the data.
So it's 1300 hours of data, right, Which I think equates to
how many days is that because you were asking me before the
top 1%. So oh, I don't have my roughly.
I can't my how? Many hours do you have?
101,300 hours, Yeah, I can't click on my computer right now.
130,000. Sorry, 101,300 hours would be
the, that's the top 1% of the data.
And so divide, divide that by 24.
OK, So it's basically we're looking at the I, I isolate the
top 54 days. So it's still a significant
amount of time. This is essentially the period
around all the peaks. So if you take those 54 days and
you look at the full history of Bitcoin, those have been the
most parabolic periods throughout Bitcoin's history.
So we're we're looking at and assessing the most extreme
outliers you could say are the most parabolic moments for a
Bitcoin. It's kind of like a, a snapshot
of those those events. So that top 1%, I basically take
that based on the ratios and, and doing the stretch
exponential decay fit. And then from there I did a
median quantile regression of median stretch exponential decay
quantile regression of that top 1%.
So just like, remember at the second chart where we kind of
did a, a median fit of the bottom 50% and we got like, you
know, 25% below 25% above for the top half, I isolate that top
1% because that's what we're most interested in.
And it, and it's still enough data that you can, you can
actually get a meaningful statistical results.
And so you take that top 1%, you you find the middle of that and
that's your trend. And then by, and then I use that
trend to actually do what I do with the bottom 50%, where I
take that trend. I keep that same slope and then
I find all those points of another, another 500 fits for
the top half. Anyways, I know it's a lot of
statistics, a lot, a lot to explain, but the end result is
this. And, and I do personally
believe, obviously, you know, I created it.
So I'm kind of biased, but I, I know how much effort and time
went into it. And I also there's other great
analysts like Cena who contributed to it, Smithson as
well, Giovanni, Giovanni obviously with, with observing
the power law as well. So this is this to me is as much
as I kind of was the person that spent the most time on it and
and put it out there, there's a lot of people that contributed
to it in various ways. So really some of the best minds
in the space. It's not like this is just me
there. There's a group of analysts,
most of them with pH DS that really would say that validate
this basically. And so the really cool thing
about this as far as its value, I mean, just explain it, people
looking at it here at the top right corner, what that number
represents. Is the quantile we're currently
at based on, I updated this actually yesterday is when the
data cut off SO100117 point .6000.
So that price in U.S. dollars equates to say the 7072
quantile. So that gives us an idea of
where we are within the data set.
You can kind of visually look at it.
But that number on the top right is, is telling us, OK, 72, we're
at 72. What does that mean?
What does that number represent? That means 2828% of of the
historic hours since the genesis block.
We were more overheated, we were more away like we were
relatively speaking, when factoring in diminishing returns
and all the math, we were higher than this level.
And, and 72% of the time we've actually been below this point.
So getting close to 3/4 of the time we've actually been below
and, and a quarter above. But and then you can see the
different bands and what they represent.
So that bottom band, I call it base camp.
It's it's kind of a mountaineering theme, right?
So the bottom dark blue band, that's base camp.
So that's the first quantile to the 20th quantile.
And so that that's what that band represents across the
whole. And you can see like all the
lows, you know, kind of bottoms of the bear market.
We always come down to that lower blue band and that's the
the bottom 20% of the days essentially.
And that's where Bitcoin that's kind of like the the floor, you
could call it, or the power law long term trend.
And so, yeah, I call that base camp above that low, low
mountain, which is like 20 to 40.
It's just a fun way to to kind of visualize it.
So you're kind of you're kind of leaving base camp, OK, we're at
the like lower end of the of the mountain or whatever, right?
So that's the the little bit lighter blue there.
And you can also see on the the bottom there you can see kind of
corresponding prices based on what quantile we're at and then
based on the the period, right. Yeah.
So the far left you can see August 17th.
So that was yesterday and then three months from now in
November 17th. So it goes three months and then
you can see, you know what is it in three months?
What are all the the levels at in three months, another three
months, February, right, Maybe the market extend or maybe the
cycle extends to next year. OK, those are the numbers there
and it goes out a full year into the future.
And then I also showed January 1st, 2030 for people that are,
you know, really just focused on the long term.
I, I kind of felt like it was good to go out five years.
I could go out longer, I could go out 1015.
But I, I think it's best to, there's kind of a rule in, in
statistics where depending on how much data you have, you can
kind of model out a certain distance.
And so be given that we have about 15-16 years of data, it's,
it's responsible to model out five years, not necessarily
responsible to model out 10 or 15 years, at least in my
opinion. But this gives us yeah, I know
what your thoughts on on everything here, but.
Yeah, So correct me if I'm wrong, but if I'm reading this,
so you know, we're basically never going below 50K again.
Is, is, is one thing how I translate it.
I don't know if that's is that's the correct way to, to say it or
like, because the majority of time, you know, 99% we would be
above that and then the top ones are basically kind of like peak
predictions. Is that how I can say that?
Yeah. Yeah, exactly.
I mean, so as far as the probability of going to 50 Ki
mean that depends on when we go there.
If we were to go there tomorrow, it's still possible, right?
I mean, I don't think we're going to, to be clear.
But if for whatever reason the cycle's over and and we go down
to the first quantile, OK, it's at 47,000, right?
So that's kind of worst case scenario.
And, and The thing is like even during the bear, even during the
bear markets, we don't necessarily get down to the
first quantile and there's no guarantee we'll ever get down to
the first quantile. This is a range of
probabilities. This is not deterministic.
This is basically giving you the probabilistic range based on the
full data set, giving you, you know, relatively speaking, where
we are within the data. So I mean, we don't have to go
down to the one ever again. And and even if you look back at
like say 2015, 2016, you see how we never really went down to the
lower quantiles. It actually wasn't till the
COVID crash that that's what that it was actually a Black
Swan. Usually it's black Swans that
bring us down to those bottom quantiles.
Like if you look at the FTX. Collapse.
Yeah, the FTX collapse collapse, Luna collapse, it took so many
collapses and an extreme, you know, you could argue Gray or
Black Swan events last cycle to bring us ultimately down to the
the first quantile. Same with COVID, you know, same
with I guess we, we did get there in, in the 2014 market.
I got confused between 2018 and 2014, but it but anyways, you
can see it there visually. I mean, we there's no guarantee
to get to those lower quantiles just just, but similarly there's
no guarantee to get to the upper quantiles.
Now we have got to those upper quantiles every single cycle.
We have got to that top 5% every single time.
We actually got there twice last cycle.
So you know, the pattern so far is 4 times of getting there.
Doesn't mean we will get there, but I think there's a decent
probability we'll get to the top 5% of the data set.
Now, will we get to the top 99.9?
No idea. No, no way of knowing that.
Nobody knows that because those are events that that's based on
human emotion, that's based on news events, that's really based
on a lot of FOMO most likely, you know there.
But we are having a pretty healthy upwards trajectory.
So maybe we'd get there in a more healthy way this cycle.
I mean, it's completely possible if the cycle extends potentially
there's a lot of ways it could play out.
But relatively speaking, you know, we're at 72, most of the
gains are in that top 10 percent, 5%.
So just because we're at 72 doesn't mean oh, Oh no, there's
only 28% of the gains left this cycle.
No, it doesn't work that way. The majority of the gains are
towards those top quantiles. So, you know, people can sell
whenever they want. And it's probably if you do want
to sell, you want to ladder out. But The thing is, you know, even
if we're at 72, we're, we're not at like 95 or 98, there's a big
difference there and there's a lot of gains still left.
So that's kind of how you can see that visually on the, on
the, on the, on the charts. So just as an example, a lot of
people think will peak this year if we follow the four year
cycle, you know, that would, that would mean so, so November
17th, right, three months from now, the very top .1%.
So that's the very small percentage of the data that's,
you know, .1% basically we've only been above that, I guess
130 day, 130 hours, right? So that top .1% is really 130
hours, the most extremes of the extreme peaks.
So, so to get to that, that's 200 and and 54K in in November.
But there's a range there from 190 to 250.
So I think it's a reasonable range like if we do peak say and
towards the end of this year anywhere between 180 and 260,
you know, 190 and 260, somewhere in that range.
If we get to that top 5% seems like a reasonable number.
Think about it. If we don't, they basically
we're going to have to so say we double between now and the end
of the year, right? Like that's a lot of capital
coming in. I mean, given that we have a 2 /
a two trillion market cap, I know that, you know, it's not
necessarily dollar for dollar money coming in doesn't equate
to price going up if people aren't selling, you know, you
can have a multiplier there. So it does.
We don't need $2 trillion to come in, but we still need
significant capital to double the market cap.
And so, yeah, I mean, lots of ways to to talk about it here.
I guess as a long term holder, like what's what's your thoughts
on just on some of the targets, I mean the 2020 thirty target
anywhere between 5:40 and 6:50 for the top 5%.
But look at that bottom, look at that 1%, I mean the bottom one
first quantile we're at 190, right.
So yeah, I don't know that diminishing volatility, but
yeah, what's your, what's your thoughts?
I find it interesting that the jump between 96 K in the in the
20% in in 26. So it one year from now and then
four years later is almost a 3X so August 1726 to January 1st
2020 thirty. So I think that it is straight
for me the IT only three X but dollar wise a big amount.
Yeah, and that's only for the peaks like I mean, I guess.
I mean in the blue on the bottom.
Oh, sorry, it's just a 20% or you said an 80?
Percent right. Oh, I see what you're talking
about. Sorry about that.
Yeah, you're talking about. 60. 7 to 190 or 180.
Nine, yeah, no, the 96 to 272 basically like that is a oh
right, OK, that is a that is only three X higher on the on
the low end right on the floor. But you know dollar wise that's
that's a big amount. So yeah, of course over time the
the multipliers are less what happens but the amount
denominated in dollars obviously is is bigger.
So I find that interesting. I'm still thinking, OK, so there
are different people that hold Bitcoin, right?
So we are long term holders. There are people that say like,
oh, you can use the math. I think Giovanni for example,
talks about how can you get in high then follow the math and
then or get out high and then follow the math and then get get
back in lower. So maybe to ask you, you know,
how do you think people could use this to either do that or
perhaps build stronger conviction?
So when I look at this as a long term holder, the trend is
clearly up, right? I think for me, after 10 years
in Bitcoin, you know, up, up, up and down, up and down, crazy
stomach turning 8085% drops. I'm happy that you also agree
that it will be less. I also think it'll be less.
So 50% would still be hard to stomach.
Although this I think helps to see that over a longer time
frame. My Bitcoin thesis is probably
still correct, you know, and I should still chill and huddle
basically. So I think that is something
that helps me if I think about how to then, yeah, maybe put
numbers on it to comfort myself when it goes down.
Basically, I think just reading this chart is something that
perhaps would be interesting to to maybe maybe share for people
that want to see how they can make it practical for for
themselves in whatever their strategy.
Is yeah. And, and again, for me, it
really does like the primary purpose is long term conviction
for me personally, you know, just to have that really zoomed
out perspective, even though this cycle I've been really
relaxed the whole time up, if there is a period that comes
where my conviction is tested to any degree, because I'm human, I
have emotions, you know, this helps.
It just it's a good tool to really zoom out and say like,
look, we're on track, long term trend is intact.
Nothing out of the ordinary is occurring.
This is short term, you know, this is the range I can also
stomach. I can kind of like brace myself
for worst case scenarios if there's a Black Swan and say,
OK, we could go down to here potentially and still be within
the the model and kind of have a realistic upper reasonable
range. Now, nothing's guaranteed, of
course, but I think having this as a tool now the the Y axis is
in log as well, just for people that might not have seen log
charts as much. So if they're saying, wow, it
doesn't look like bitcoins going up that steep.
I mean, this is logged. So if you looked at it linear
would just be off the chart. You couldn't even really see it.
Almost all the charts around Bitcoin we see are in log on the
Y axis. So you know, it's, it's, it's up
and to the right, but it's also when you when you squish it with
a log Y axis. So it's even more up into the
right than it visually looks. I think most people understand
that. So yeah, I mean, I think it's
important to understand your emotions as well.
And there's different personality types.
I won't go into this too much, but there's there's some people
that are naturally optimistic and some people are naturally
pessimistic and they both have their pros and cons.
It's good to understand your own personality when you're an
investor, though. I tend to be on the optimistic
side, which is good in some ways because throughout my life I
tend to expect the best things to occur.
I tend to be positive. I tend to have a good outlook on
the future. But there there's a
susceptibility there where you are biased towards being bullish
and you and you have to kind of intentionally pull yourself back
to a neutral point. And these are tools to do that,
at least in my opinion. There's other indicators of
course, and other ways you can do that, but to stay grounded,
right? Because, but if someone's, so if
for somebody's optimistic, naturally optimistic, they have
a harder time selling when the price is high because I think
it's going to keep going up. But it's easy to buy when the
price is down. I, I bought during the COVID
crash. I, I bought a little bit during
the FTX collapse near the bottom.
So for me, it's super easy to buy at the bottoms.
I have a harder time selling at the peaks.
And so that's why I've just held the whole time.
Other people the opposite. They tend to be more naturally
pessimistic. So they might have a hard time
buying Bitcoin because all they see is the negatives.
They can't buy when the price is down, but it's easy for them to
sell when the price is run up like halfway through the cycle
or whatever They they or or or sell when it's high right.
So it's good to know your own personality, your own biases.
That's all important. As far as use case, I don't
promote trading at all. I definitely am.
I don't want to be someone who promotes trading.
I think there's so many people that get wrecked trying to trade
Bitcoin. I think it's silly.
I think just hold long term like like especially when you see
things like this and you understand the math like why are
we trading? I mean it's yeah, I think I
think to to promote this idea of trading Bitcoin.
The way I look at it is, is not about trading Bitcoin.
So this tool helps me again long term conviction.
But the other use case for me personally is if I am going to
sell a percentage of my Bitcoin throughout the long term, you
know, upwards trend over the next 5-10, whatever years or
even longer when I'm going to sell some percentages for I call
them lifestyle chips. So you take some lifestyle chips
off the table. I don't do it expecting to get
back in lower. I do it that where I'm
comfortable and I and I can kind of assess what kind of value I'm
getting. OK, Bitcoins at Quantal 90.
OK, I'm getting decent value for this. 90% of the time it's been
lower, 10% of the time it's been higher.
OK, I take some chips off. I, I buy something meaningful in
my life, buy time or whatever, however you want to find it, but
I don't expect to get back in at the bottom.
So I know I never, I never for me personally, I'm not using
this as a trading tool. People could do that.
I'm not promoting that. I think it's a conviction tool
long term and it's a tool to assess the value you're getting
if you have to sell your Bitcoin.
So say someone for whatever reason has to sell or they want
to sell. Everyone has their own
circumstance, their own reasoning.
Maybe somebody is, is 80 years old and they they want to take a
vacation or, or do something, you know, with their family.
I mean, at that point, is it good for them to huddle another
30 years? Maybe not.
I mean, it's so life stages is another factor.
But yeah, all of that to say, I mean, it's not a trading, it's
not a trading model. It, it's a, it's a giving you
based on all the historic data, the best way we can assessing
where we are within the historical relative data set,
factoring in all the math, diminishing returns, all the
things we spoke of. It's kind of giving you a, a, a
framework to be like, OK, this is where we're at now.
You decide whatever you're going to do with that.
Hope that makes makes some sense.
Yeah, yeah, definitely. I think, well, short question in
between, do you have like a live dashboard or do you plan on
building something like that, like that?
There's a way that people can actually go there when they
listen to this and then see where we're at today.
Absolutely, yeah, I'm going to have it up on a site.
It will be free. I'm just going to basically
throw it up on a website. It's it's about 1100 lines of
code and I want to have it so that essentially it's just
automatically updating every hour on a on a site.
And I need to like get this out fast.
I, I've been doing other things in my life, but it's like, OK,
we're getting closer to potentially some sort of peak
over the next year or sixteen months, whatever it is, it being
six months, whatever the whatever the period, I don't
know. But I should also say like I'm
cycle length agnostic. So, and that's actually a
really, that's a, in my opinion, it's a feature of this model.
It's actually doesn't factor in cycle length.
So there are other models that use cycle length as a, as a, as
an input. This doesn't, this is cycle
length agnostic. This is basically just showing
you the bands, how overheated we are.
It's not saying you know when we're going to peak the exact
day. I think I personally, I believe
that's a little bit of a pursuit because we really only have a
couple data points for the cycle.
So yes, we followed this kind of four year pattern and it
absolutely could continue. I'm not saying it won't, it's
possible. I mean, there's a lot of
psychological bias and people towards potentially, you know,
that four years, I think some people will sell just because
it's four years. I actually put on a poll one
time a while ago and it had a good amount of votes.
And there's still a huge percentage of people that expect
us to keep doing that for your cycle.
So, but this cycle doesn't doesn't factor in length.
It's strictly how overweight heated we are.
So it's cycle length agnostic. So am I so I look more at what
quantile we're at than what day it is.
You know, if, if the quantile, if we're only at quantile 75 and
it's at the end of the year, maybe, you know, maybe we extend
till next year, who knows. So that's kind of more how I see
it as far as a place to to look at this.
Yeah, I'm going to have it up on the site.
You can follow me on my ex account for updates, but I will
have it on the site and I'll have multiple being able to zoom
in the so it's, you know, other ways of seeing it.
This is the full, full history. But I also want to show like,
OK, the next year, you know, the the last five years maybe or
whatever, right? Have a couple different versions
of this. And, and also I want to have it
so that people can put in the day and the quantile and it will
tell them the number. So whatever.
So that way you can say it and, and this is totally possible to
create. I just have to do some coding.
But basically you can say January 1st, 2030, 57th
quantile, what's the, what's the number, right?
So it's just kind of like a fun tool and, and people can do with
what they want. But that way you can kind of get
more, use it for whatever you want to use it for.
But yeah, we'll be on a site for free.
Awesome. Yeah.
What I really liked is that you said, you know, if you have to
sell or you think you want to sell, this is a tool where you
can check if you are OK with selling at this moment,
basically, right and and just make that decision by yourself.
But then you actually understand where we are, where, where we
are and, and have a historical perspective and maybe make a
conscious decision now or say, like, OK, I, I can, I can wait
for three more months. And I'm going to keep this, this
this certain time frame in mind and and look it up then on your
website right to kind of time. Whenever you would want to sell,
if you want or maybe even need to sell, that's.
Well, that's well said. Yeah, there's like some huge
important purchase. I mean, I hate to say this, but
I think it's a very. I think a lot of people can
relate to this. Sometimes there's there's every
so so naturally in relationships, a lot of people
are relationships, There's a there's going to be some push
and pull around these sorts of things, right.
And so you can, you know, potentially a tool to say to
show to your partner, guy or girl, whatever.
Look, this is the long term pattern.
Where do you think we're in blue right now?
Do we want to sell our Bitcoin? Can we hold off a couple more
years to buy that dream house or whatever?
Wait till we're at least in like the top 50% top, you know?
So I think that's just kind of how I see it, right?
Like you could potentially eke out a bit more of a window to
kind of hold off on some of those things that people
inevitably will buy. So yeah, I think that kind of
summarizes it decently. And yeah, I don't know whether I
guess for yourself personally. I mean, you said you're a long
term holder, so this is just strictly conviction tool for
you. Like do you see yourself?
I mean, you don't have to share your personal stuff, but would
you ever use anything like this to if you had something you
needed to? Yeah.
I think, I think I would use it like how I just described it to
be honest. So, and I think definitely now,
now, now that we're moving more towards yeah, there's
progression of, of the cycle, right?
I think just, I mean, today I published an episode with with
Nico Moran where we talked about are the cycles dead, right.
Like is there anything that's going to change?
I and again, I think that kind of bumps heads with what we're
talking about here. So I find that very interesting
because, yeah, you can logically argue a lot of things around
cycle being dead. You know, Internet demands all
the things that I said and this is the math.
So I think having these different types of tools and
reasoning can help you to yeah, what I just said, see where
you're at, see how comfortable you are.
Do I want to huddle? Do I want to sell a bit?
And I think also those. Yeah, those ideas can change
over time depending how your life goes or where you're at or
what you need to do or whatever, right.
So I think that this is definitely helpful because you
know, in I don't know when you know, I always share, I bought
between 100 and 300 and I sold at 4000.
I have no clue if 4000 was a great price, right?
And like now I could actually check if I'm OK with selling it
in this percentile basic basically, and then also feel
good about perhaps selling it for something else like a live
upgrade or or whatever, right? So I think, I think it's just a
very, very useful tool to help you make a conscious decision
about whether you want to sell it or not at this moment.
So. Yeah, it gives you some sort of
reference point other than just watching the price every day
just bounce up and down and a million TA charts on on X saying
we're going up, we're going down, deleting their posts,
whatever. Like there's there's so much
noise in the chart space as far as people saying, oh, we're
going to whatever and then you know.
So yeah, I mean, just just on the cycle thing really quickly
because you mentioned it, the cycle could be dead and this
this model could still hold. That is actually possible.
It doesn't require there to be necessarily a cycle.
Now, you know, if we just keep going up and to the right
steeply, we're probably, you know, going to go out of the
range. But if we do kind of stair step
up and and and kind of crab sideways for longer periods, but
still it's up and to the right with not necessarily like a
crazy bearish multi year major pullback, right.
That doesn't have to happen for this model to still hold because
as, as time goes on, you know, the numbers we are the, the
patterns are up. So there's different very,
there's various ways of, of creating that pattern of up.
You can have these sharp drops, huge bull markets or you can
have more of just a sideways crab to bull that extends for
years. And it's not, I'm not ruling
that out. I don't want to rule out
anything. We have very few data points.
We're seeing some unique things this cycle, extended
consolidation period. So I'm I'm not really at
anything. The cool thing about quantile
regressions and using this type of a model is every single new
data point, If I'm updating this hourly, it does update.
So meaning every data point that comes in is factored in.
Now it's one of 130,000 plus data points.
So each new data point has relatively small influence.
However, the the higher data points might have a little bit
more influence of in that in that range.
So there are potential micro adjustments over time, which is
what you want. You want it to be a somewhat
adaptive to new data. So even though you can't use
data from the future, you know, people say, well, this is only
based on the past data. Well, it's impossible to do any
analysis on future data. If you have a time machine or
you have a way of, of using future data, that's awesome.
You'd be the best analyst in the world.
But the reality is we only have the data we have, which is the
past. And so we, we as, as the model
goes, it will incorporate in new data points and, and I did that
intentionally. I wanted it to be dynamic and
but the patterns, you know, again, we already have 15 years
plus of data. So building micro adjustments,
this is kind of the trend, but it will factor, factor in new
data as we go as well. Yeah, yeah.
What I really like, and maybe also that is that is interesting
in the discussion in general, right?
Like this is like you're saying, this is based on what we have
and what we know. And the same is with the power
law. It is based on what we have and
what we know. It is the the power law is not
an opinion. I say to people, right?
It's it's math. It's just showing the apparent
discovery of a power law. And this is how Bitcoin behaves.
And it's not only price over time, right?
It's even hash rate, the number of wallets.
I think there's like 6 or 7 of of, of these characteristics
that you can eventually plot them on a, on a power law.
The signal for me is actually, OK, that's very interesting
because this is not, this is not a random thing.
There's not, there's, there's definitely not something random
happening, which I think is a very positive signal.
But again, it's kind of clashes with OK, can you, should you
then like only look back and say where we are or can you also
project towards the future? Right.
And I think that projection towards the future is where some
people find it difficult, yeah, to kind of like visualize that
or accept that also because. And this is one of the questions
that I wanted to ask you. You know, we have a popular meme
which is all your models will be destroyed.
And I think that often, like I mentioned before, that points to
the idea of the finite supply, massive demand, you know, and
like infinite demand that could trigger supply shock that breaks
all the models that. Yeah, look at the past and then
sort of project towards the future, right?
So I think that is valid. Again, I mentioned that before,
but yeah, how do you think about that?
Are you? I don't think you are, but I
think people that discuss these mathematical models are like,
no, these guys are very rigid and they're numbers and blah,
blah. Like this could definitely
happen. Like if you have the chance as
the numbers guide to share thoughts around this, like what?
What would you say? For sure.
I mean, I think there's a certain percentage of people
that are just kind of opposed to modeling Bitcoin, which is
completely fine for whatever reason, You know, there could be
a various, various reasons for that, but they just it, it's
kind of like this is my baby. This is my discovery.
I I found this thing earlier, whatever.
And I've invested a lot of money and they don't like the idea of
someone trying to put it in some sort of a mathematical box or
framework. So there is a, a percentage of
people are just opposed to models in general.
What I would say is, I mean it's not just the math, the, it's a
combination of the math and then also just using for me anyways,
it's, it's looking at actual networks.
So because Bitcoin is really a network of networks and it is a
network you can actually look at, there's actually research
studies you can use AI to, to take large amounts of data.
So I have the, the top subscription to chat UV2 pro or
whatever. And you can do a lot of research
with it. There's two different, different
tools where you can essentially it'll be searching for like 5-10
minutes. It'll pull from hundreds of, of
resources and you can ask it very interesting questions
around, you know, network adoption, power law, stretched
exponential decay. And the thing that's very
interesting for me is it logically makes sense for it to
be following this mathematical pattern because what you have is
a network that is gaining adoption over time and that
network is stabilizing and the volatility is trending down as
the network stabilizes. And so, and actually a power log
growth pattern for the, for the, the kind of the base bottom,
there's actually a ton of examples where you have a power
law. People, people focus so much on
the power law element. And I and I get that, but
actually exponential decay and stretched exponential decay are,
are actually the most common pattern to see with the power
law. And they're actually
interdependent. So you can't really have one
without the other. So if the diminishing returns of
the peaks breaks, we actually will probably see the power law
break as well. I actually think they're very
much interrelated. And so we focused a lot on the
power law, but again, this, this modeling of the top 50%, this
this exponential slash stretched exponential decay is it's a very
common pattern you see in a network getting adoption
stabilizing over time. And you can look at networks in
various, in various fields. So I did quite a bit of research
on, on that and just kind of looking at the common, the most
highest probability mathematical patterns that we see.
And if you describe Bitcoin and what it is and you do a lot of
deep research on it, it's actually the first probable
thing that comes up that it follows a power lot and it has a
stretched exponential decay. They're the most commonly seen
together. And so it and this is what the
math shows. So like, I mean, it's, it's just
really interesting to be on many levels.
And so now we've seen black Swans to the downside and this
is held. We haven't necessarily seen a
full white swan to the upside. So I, I still hold out that this
could break. I'm not rigid in in as much time
as I put on this. Obviously, if we breakthrough
the top of this model, I'll be thrilled.
Like if I'm if I'm proven wrong or whatever, like my, I don't
really care that much about it. I'd, I'd rather us break the
upside and follow some other pattern.
And then how about the model break?
But then obviously, you know, I'm, I'm going to make a good
amount of money. So for me, yeah, maybe there's a
a white swan that's significant enough that we do see this
pattern break for the upside. If the pattern on the upside
breaks, I think the power law will break on the downside part
of the the bands as well. And you know, what would be the
trigger for this white swan event?
I mean, there's many people can have their own views on what
could trigger that, but probably a transition away from, from
Fiat to, to, to an extent that there's like a whole, you know,
like complete change of the whole system, right.
So, you know, that's not necessarily going to happen
overnight. I, I think given the, the
players involved globally, these sorts of things will take place
over at least a period of years. So that's where I, I'm not, you
know, convinced that all of a sudden one day everyone's just
going to start buying Bitcoin. Because The thing is it, it,
it's with money, the adoption, it takes a while for people to
have the conviction, right? It's different when you're
signing up for a social media app, OK, I can put in my login
information. This there's a pretty low
barrier to entry when it comes to putting a significant amount
of your, your life time and energy into an asset class.
People don't tend to do that overnight.
They kind of dabble, OK, they learn more, they're going to put
a higher percentage in. OK, they learn a bit more, I'm
going to put a bit more in. It tends to be a process.
And that's why I think this adoption will continue and not
in necessarily a overnight parabolic way.
However, there could be and just wrap it up, there could be white
swan events that contribute to periods of time where we do see
increases in adoption, right. And, but naturally things will
probably kind of come back down. So yeah, it'll be fascinating.
We'll have to do updates over the course of months and, and
kind of see where we're at. But yeah, for people who want to
follow along on the quantile model, just follow me on X.
And then like I said, I'll have a website and then we can maybe
do another interview down the road if you want and, and
revisit it and, and see, see how it plays out.
I mean, the fun thing is we're going to know within a couple
months to a year probably we'll be visiting those top quantiles
potentially. So we'll be able to see how it
holds up. Yeah.
Well, I, I think this was very fascinating and very helpful
also to, to learn about this. Again, I think it's a, it's a
great tool to understand where you're at and then, you know, be
able to make a conscious decision.
So I think that's absolutely fantastic.
Of course, I will link to your X account in the description below
so people can follow you and then to, to know when your
website is going to be live. So thanks a lot.
I thought it was very insightful.
And yeah, I just want to ask you my last question, a bit bit
unrelated to what we talked about, but I ask everyone the
same question, question at the end, which is what is a core
belief that you will never let go of.
I like that question. Oh, I'm a bit of a philosophical
minded person. OK, what comes to mind?
A core belief that I will never let go of.
Wow. Off the top of my off the cuff,
I would say like there is a, a a frequency of, of, of deep love
and good that exists in some whatever you wanted to find this
realm is it's it's not just doom and gloom low frequency, you
know, evil. There is a, a very strong and
that is the default in my personal belief is the default
of of whatever dimensional massive, whatever you want to
define, you know, whatever lens you want to use to define this
existence of simulation or whatever a quantum physics,
whatever, whatever this is that we're experiencing and whatever
the vastness of, of dimensions are.
I think the the default is is an experience of there there is
some sort of of loved is just a word to define it or a, a high
frequency or a a good. However, you know, it's hard to
find a words, but there's something there.
And then there's deviations from this to kind of get a spectrum
where we can have growth, growth experiences from any sort of
whatever avatar likes simulated realities.
I don't know, but there is a contrast from that.
But I think the default is, is is really good.
And, and, and, and we've signed up potentially for some sort of
an experience, but I don't think, you know, as much as
people watch the news and everything's always bad.
And I mean, whatever for me to think that there's only, you
know, evil and it's all just whatever.
That's the dominant thing that exists at the core.
No, it, it's the opposite. It has to be.
That's the only thing that I'll hold on to.
Fantastic. Thanks for sharing.
I think the people listening know that I very much agree with
you. Thank you so much.
Thanks for your time. I hope people found it valuable.
And yeah, we'll stay in touch. We'll do this again and see
where we're at. Awesome.
Thanks very much. All right, man, Have a great
day. Yeah, take.
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