1
00:00:00,080 --> 00:00:02,480
But every other cycle there was 
kind of like this discount that 

2
00:00:02,480 --> 00:00:04,120
Bitcoin could go to 0 
potentially. 

3
00:00:04,400 --> 00:00:06,960
But at this point, I think it's 
really hard to make that 

4
00:00:06,960 --> 00:00:08,240
argument. 
I really do. 

5
00:00:09,400 --> 00:00:12,720
People can try, but I mean, you 
just, there's, it's just not, 

6
00:00:12,880 --> 00:00:14,720
you're going to have to use a 
lot of logical fallacies. 

7
00:00:14,720 --> 00:00:17,120
I I don't see a really an 
argument for it at this point. 

8
00:00:19,440 --> 00:00:23,120
All right, Plan C Welcome to 
Bitcoin for Millennials. 

9
00:00:23,440 --> 00:00:25,400
Yeah, thanks for having me. 
Looking forward to it. 

10
00:00:26,240 --> 00:00:28,360
Always looking for always fun 
talking about Bitcoin. 

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00:00:28,360 --> 00:00:31,360
And then I'm a bit of a nerd, so
I love talking about the the 

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00:00:31,360 --> 00:00:33,000
data and stuff. 
But no, I really appreciate you 

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00:00:33,000 --> 00:00:35,080
having me on the show and look 
forward to getting into it. 

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00:00:36,120 --> 00:00:37,640
Yeah, well, I appreciate you 
coming on. 

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00:00:37,640 --> 00:00:40,840
I mean, I've had different 
conversations about the math 

16
00:00:40,840 --> 00:00:45,000
behind Bitcoin and I think what 
you are working on is an 

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00:00:45,000 --> 00:00:47,800
extension to what I've talked 
about before. 

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00:00:47,800 --> 00:00:49,960
So I personally find that very 
interesting. 

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00:00:50,280 --> 00:00:54,000
And I also think it can help 
people to, yeah, build 

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00:00:54,000 --> 00:00:56,360
conviction over time. 
You know, like there's a lot of 

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headlines, there's a lot of 
YouTube titles, there's a lot of

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super bullish podcasts and 
people. 

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And that's, that's all fun, of 
course, but I personally think, 

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00:01:07,360 --> 00:01:09,080
and, and it's also something 
that's helped me in my 

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conviction there is a 
mathematical truth, or at least 

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something is happening 
mathematically behind the 

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adoption of of Bitcoin and just 
diving deeper into that. 

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I think it's very interesting. 
And so, so before we go into 

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your model, I just kind of 
wanted to touch briefly on on 

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how this all started for you. 
Like what led you to to dive 

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deep in analyzing Bitcoin with 
with all these mathematical 

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00:01:34,360 --> 00:01:36,760
models and and what makes it so 
intriguing for you? 

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00:01:37,240 --> 00:01:39,640
Yeah, absolutely. 
So it's been, it's been a fun 

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journey. 
It's been a crazy roller coaster

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journey for those people that 
have been in, you know, crypto 

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00:01:44,200 --> 00:01:48,000
and Bitcoin for a while. 
I'm sure lots of crazy stories, 

37
00:01:48,000 --> 00:01:50,960
obviously. 
But for me it started kind of in

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late 2017. 
So I was running a a business 

39
00:01:54,920 --> 00:01:59,200
owner of a business and one of 
the employees basically had had 

40
00:01:59,200 --> 00:02:03,800
a Bitcoin and he said, you know,
I bought this Bitcoin at 200. 

41
00:02:03,800 --> 00:02:05,400
I think it was like 2000 
Canadian or something. 

42
00:02:05,400 --> 00:02:07,800
He's like, I'm going to sell it 
at 2020 thousand Canadian. 

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00:02:07,800 --> 00:02:09,360
He basically wanted it like the 
10X. 

44
00:02:09,919 --> 00:02:12,600
And so he told he happened to 
start talking about Bitcoin 

45
00:02:13,240 --> 00:02:16,320
around October, November. 
I believe it was because 

46
00:02:16,320 --> 00:02:17,400
obviously the price was going 
up. 

47
00:02:17,400 --> 00:02:19,040
He's getting closer to his 
targets. 

48
00:02:19,560 --> 00:02:23,160
And I was not like Bitcoin and 
crypto was not on my radar. 

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00:02:23,160 --> 00:02:25,440
I had a startup business. 
I was so focused. 

50
00:02:25,440 --> 00:02:28,920
I was working 8000 hour weeks 
focused on this business. 

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00:02:29,120 --> 00:02:32,640
We've been open a couple years. 
And so I was like, totally not 

52
00:02:32,640 --> 00:02:35,120
in that realm, but he started 
talking about it. 

53
00:02:35,160 --> 00:02:38,000
And then I happen to be checking
the price over a period of days.

54
00:02:38,280 --> 00:02:42,560
And it coincided with the major 
parabolic peak we had in 2017. 

55
00:02:42,840 --> 00:02:45,760
And so I'm texting with him and 
like, dude, this thing's going 

56
00:02:45,760 --> 00:02:48,120
up like this. 
The price is changing, you know,

57
00:02:48,120 --> 00:02:50,320
$1000 every couple hours here. 
What's happening? 

58
00:02:50,320 --> 00:02:52,240
Like what's going on? 
So I didn't, I didn't hold any 

59
00:02:52,240 --> 00:02:55,880
Bitcoin, but I was living, you 
know, in a way, through him. 

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00:02:56,120 --> 00:02:59,560
Happy for the guy, right? 
And that kind of brought around 

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00:02:59,560 --> 00:03:02,800
on my radar. 
And so after that, I kind of got

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00:03:02,800 --> 00:03:06,480
addicted, so to speak, like all 
of 2018, you know, I went 

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00:03:06,480 --> 00:03:09,600
through the whole crypto shit 
coin, you know, like a lot of 

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00:03:09,600 --> 00:03:12,040
people have to go through. 
So I went through that in 2018. 

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00:03:12,040 --> 00:03:14,720
It was a wild ride, as you 
remember, you know, that was 

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00:03:14,720 --> 00:03:19,000
when we're these these IC OS and
all this craziness. 

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00:03:19,360 --> 00:03:23,360
So I went through that whole 
experience and just kept 

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00:03:23,360 --> 00:03:25,680
researching, kept, you know, 
listening to tons of Bitcoin 

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00:03:25,680 --> 00:03:28,720
podcasts and and and crypto too 
at the time. 

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00:03:29,160 --> 00:03:31,920
And then finally it collect. 
It took a while, but it finally 

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00:03:31,920 --> 00:03:37,760
clicked with me just before 
actually the the 2020 crash. 

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00:03:38,400 --> 00:03:40,920
It's like I was just fortunate. 
It was the timing. 

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00:03:40,920 --> 00:03:44,000
It really clicked with me that I
needed to be a Bitcoin. 

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00:03:44,360 --> 00:03:47,680
And so even though I had lost 
money up until that point, some 

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00:03:47,680 --> 00:03:53,160
of the money I had lost in, in 
alts, I'd only put in not, not 

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00:03:53,160 --> 00:03:55,480
all my, my money. 
I'd put in like a relatively 

77
00:03:55,480 --> 00:03:59,080
small percentage, luckily. 
And so like, you know what I'm 

78
00:03:59,080 --> 00:04:00,640
going to put in, I kind of went 
crazy. 

79
00:04:01,280 --> 00:04:04,800
So even retirement accounts, I, 
I liquidated what we have in 

80
00:04:04,800 --> 00:04:09,200
Canada called Rs PS, you know, 
and just put everything I could 

81
00:04:09,200 --> 00:04:11,440
possibly put in. 
And I, and I happen to getting 

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00:04:11,440 --> 00:04:15,360
at the very low of, of the 2020 
crash, but I got in at a really 

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00:04:15,360 --> 00:04:18,800
good price levels and I've just 
held ever since, to be honest. 

84
00:04:18,800 --> 00:04:20,640
I've wrote it, I wrote all the 
Bitcoin. 

85
00:04:20,640 --> 00:04:23,680
I've just huddled, you know, 
kept it the, the whole write up,

86
00:04:23,760 --> 00:04:28,160
you know, during I, I started to
kind of research indicators and 

87
00:04:28,160 --> 00:04:33,720
things kind of going into I 
guess 21/20/21. 

88
00:04:33,720 --> 00:04:36,800
But anyways, wrote it all the 
way up, wrote all the way down 

89
00:04:37,280 --> 00:04:39,720
during the FTX had a lot of 
conviction at that point. 

90
00:04:39,720 --> 00:04:41,480
So I'm like, you know what, I 
believe in this. 

91
00:04:41,480 --> 00:04:44,160
I'm just going to hold it. 
And I, and I felt comfortable 

92
00:04:44,360 --> 00:04:45,520
this cycle. 
I mean, I've been through 

93
00:04:45,520 --> 00:04:48,720
multiple cycles, but this cycle 
I have been so calm. 

94
00:04:48,840 --> 00:04:51,560
It's amazing. 
Like having, having math and, 

95
00:04:51,560 --> 00:04:55,040
and these models and just having
the understanding of Bitcoin, 

96
00:04:55,760 --> 00:04:59,280
all these things combined for me
has made it so that I've just 

97
00:04:59,280 --> 00:05:02,480
been so low stress this cycle 
and I, and I haven't even posted

98
00:05:02,480 --> 00:05:04,720
as much content because I've 
been working on other things. 

99
00:05:04,720 --> 00:05:06,640
I'm not, I'm not really that 
concerned about Bitcoin, to be 

100
00:05:06,640 --> 00:05:08,440
honest. 
I check in on it, but I mean 

101
00:05:08,880 --> 00:05:11,240
cycle before I was checking the 
price all the time, right? 

102
00:05:11,280 --> 00:05:13,760
Couple times a day, whatever. 
Now it's like couple times a 

103
00:05:13,760 --> 00:05:16,440
week. 
Like I, I just, I mean, it, it 

104
00:05:16,520 --> 00:05:19,200
obviously, you know, as we get 
closer to what I think will the,

105
00:05:19,240 --> 00:05:21,200
the peak will be, I'll be 
checking in more and I'll be 

106
00:05:21,200 --> 00:05:23,040
watching all the models and 
indicators more. 

107
00:05:23,040 --> 00:05:25,640
But this period I'm just like, I
know what's happening. 

108
00:05:25,640 --> 00:05:29,280
Like we're just flushing out 
old, old early Bitcoiners. 

109
00:05:29,480 --> 00:05:32,760
We got to work through this and,
and I'm just kind of patiently 

110
00:05:32,760 --> 00:05:33,960
waiting. 
So but yeah, sorry about the 

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00:05:33,960 --> 00:05:36,880
long ramp, but that's, yeah, 
it's basically been my journey. 

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00:05:36,880 --> 00:05:39,800
I mean, I, as far as the, the 
research side of things, I've 

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00:05:39,800 --> 00:05:42,920
been full time by the last five 
years, I've been fortunate to be

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00:05:42,920 --> 00:05:46,960
full time, just rich researching
and learning about Bitcoin and 

115
00:05:47,560 --> 00:05:50,720
really focused on modeling 
Bitcoin. 

116
00:05:50,720 --> 00:05:52,320
It's, it's been kind of a 
mission of mine. 

117
00:05:52,320 --> 00:05:55,080
And it, it's, I went through 
this like on chain phase where 

118
00:05:55,080 --> 00:05:57,520
I, you don't have the top tier 
subscription to glass. 

119
00:05:57,520 --> 00:05:59,880
So that I looked through all 
their metrics and indicators. 

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00:05:59,880 --> 00:06:02,840
I looked into TA, you know, I 
looked into kind of like all the

121
00:06:02,840 --> 00:06:04,440
different ways you can analyze 
Bitcoin. 

122
00:06:04,800 --> 00:06:08,840
And ultimately it's, it's now a 
statistical model which I find 

123
00:06:08,840 --> 00:06:11,200
the most useful. 
And for me, yeah. 

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00:06:11,200 --> 00:06:15,360
Anyways. 
Yeah, awesome. 

125
00:06:15,360 --> 00:06:16,840
Thanks. 
Thanks for that introduction. 

126
00:06:16,840 --> 00:06:20,240
I think that is that is awesome 
to to learn. 

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00:06:20,240 --> 00:06:24,800
So when we move to your model, 
the Bitcoin quantile model, 

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00:06:25,440 --> 00:06:29,400
yeah, I think it's getting more 
and more attention, right, 

129
00:06:29,400 --> 00:06:32,320
Because people are thinking 
about, OK, how can I predict 

130
00:06:32,480 --> 00:06:37,080
wherever this cycle is going to 
go and then act on that, right. 

131
00:06:37,080 --> 00:06:41,080
And so while some of my 
listeners are familiar with the 

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00:06:41,080 --> 00:06:44,720
Bitcoin power law, because that 
is what this is, I don't want to

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00:06:44,720 --> 00:06:48,440
say an extension to, but I think
it came after the power law and 

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00:06:48,440 --> 00:06:52,000
it uses the power law or you use
the power law in your model. 

135
00:06:52,000 --> 00:06:54,800
So I've discussed the power law 
a few times on the podcast. 

136
00:06:54,800 --> 00:06:58,480
People can check my 
conversations with Giovanni 

137
00:06:58,480 --> 00:07:04,200
Santostasi or Steven Perrineau 
and Smitty also with the I'm a 

138
00:07:04,200 --> 00:07:07,400
Retirement guide where I talked 
a lot about it. 

139
00:07:07,400 --> 00:07:11,080
But maybe before we move on to 
your Bitcoin quantile model, 

140
00:07:11,440 --> 00:07:16,600
kind of briefly explain what the
power law is and why you can use

141
00:07:16,600 --> 00:07:19,000
it for the model that that you 
are building. 

142
00:07:19,760 --> 00:07:22,320
Yeah. 
So, so over, you know, last five

143
00:07:22,320 --> 00:07:25,520
years really kind of looking 
everywhere to see OK, where, 

144
00:07:25,520 --> 00:07:28,480
where are the tools and where 
are the indicators and, and in 

145
00:07:28,480 --> 00:07:31,760
what ways you know, can I 
actually understand Bitcoin 

146
00:07:31,760 --> 00:07:34,080
cycles? 
And one thing I really found 

147
00:07:34,600 --> 00:07:36,960
from looking through all the on 
chain stuff in glass node and, 

148
00:07:36,960 --> 00:07:39,040
and really a lot of the 
indicators that were out there 

149
00:07:39,480 --> 00:07:43,720
is there was this diminishing, 
diminishing peaks. 

150
00:07:43,720 --> 00:07:46,800
So it was really hard for a lot 
of these indicators. 

151
00:07:46,800 --> 00:07:49,640
Like you have the MVRV, some 
people are familiar with that 

152
00:07:49,640 --> 00:07:52,800
one, but you know, you have the 
Z square MVRV or whatever. 

153
00:07:52,800 --> 00:07:55,960
So you have these peaks up, but 
the problem is every cycle 

154
00:07:55,960 --> 00:07:59,080
they're kind of going down and 
you're not sure to what degree 

155
00:07:59,120 --> 00:08:02,040
they're going to go down. 
And so with the power law, like 

156
00:08:02,360 --> 00:08:05,320
this was something I basically 
became aware of just over a year

157
00:08:05,320 --> 00:08:06,600
ago. 
Now probably you're, you're in a

158
00:08:06,600 --> 00:08:10,400
bit and I'm like, OK, this, this
is interesting to me. 

159
00:08:10,560 --> 00:08:12,840
This is very interesting 
because, you know, understanding

160
00:08:12,840 --> 00:08:15,000
the math behind it. 
I mean, I did a deep dive on the

161
00:08:15,000 --> 00:08:18,640
power law initially and just to 
fully understand it. 

162
00:08:19,120 --> 00:08:22,600
And I'm like, OK, this, this is 
very useful as far as like a 

163
00:08:22,600 --> 00:08:25,840
long term approximation. 
You know, you can draw what's 

164
00:08:25,840 --> 00:08:29,120
called an OLS regression, which 
is basically just a line through

165
00:08:29,120 --> 00:08:32,000
the the data set. 
So we look at the power law, 

166
00:08:32,000 --> 00:08:35,679
you're looking at log of price 
versus the log of hours since 

167
00:08:35,679 --> 00:08:38,120
the Bitcoin genesis block or log
of days or whatever you want to 

168
00:08:38,120 --> 00:08:40,400
do, but you're looking at 
basically price versus time. 

169
00:08:40,559 --> 00:08:42,919
Those are the like, that's what 
you're looking at. 

170
00:08:43,280 --> 00:08:45,720
And so the log of price versus 
log of time. 

171
00:08:45,720 --> 00:08:48,200
And so it's, it's more of an 
observation, the power law, in 

172
00:08:48,200 --> 00:08:51,960
my opinion, you know, because 
you have to still create a model

173
00:08:51,960 --> 00:08:53,920
around it. 
So the power law itself, it's 

174
00:08:53,920 --> 00:08:57,160
like, OK, here's an observation.
We can see there seems to be a 

175
00:08:57,160 --> 00:09:00,200
pattern here. 
But if you just draw a line 

176
00:09:00,200 --> 00:09:01,960
through that, it's really not 
that useful. 

177
00:09:02,160 --> 00:09:06,320
I mean, you basically like, OK, 
so we have a, a trend line, you 

178
00:09:06,320 --> 00:09:10,240
could say, or we have, you know,
that you can, you do like it's 

179
00:09:10,240 --> 00:09:12,440
called a median regression or a 
mean regression where you're 

180
00:09:12,440 --> 00:09:14,080
basically just drawing a line 
through the data. 

181
00:09:14,160 --> 00:09:17,800
And so that that doesn't really 
tell you necessarily where you 

182
00:09:17,800 --> 00:09:20,200
are in reference to that line. 
You can look at like standard 

183
00:09:20,200 --> 00:09:22,320
deviations of things. 
There's, there are ways you can 

184
00:09:22,320 --> 00:09:25,520
kind of approximate. 
But regardless, the the issue 

185
00:09:25,520 --> 00:09:28,960
was that there was this for the,
for the peaks of the cycles, 

186
00:09:28,960 --> 00:09:32,520
there was a clear downtrend that
was not being accounted for. 

187
00:09:32,520 --> 00:09:35,880
So if you just took that middle,
middle line and you extended 

188
00:09:35,880 --> 00:09:39,720
that up, you know, it it wasn't,
it would didn't hit the peaks. 

189
00:09:39,720 --> 00:09:42,200
And if you kind of put it at the
bottom, it was more accurate. 

190
00:09:42,200 --> 00:09:46,160
The bottom, bottom 50% of the 
data is, is more falling that 

191
00:09:46,160 --> 00:09:48,880
power law. 
But the top 50%, it's a 

192
00:09:48,880 --> 00:09:51,560
completely different pattern. 
And no one had really, up until 

193
00:09:51,560 --> 00:09:53,640
that point, no one really 
modeled it that well. 

194
00:09:54,120 --> 00:09:59,880
And so, yeah, anyways, I mean, 
essentially I just, I just, I 

195
00:09:59,880 --> 00:10:02,040
just went on this journey of 
like trying to figure out how to

196
00:10:02,040 --> 00:10:04,840
best understand and model the 
peaks of the cycles. 

197
00:10:04,840 --> 00:10:08,200
And and for me it was more about
figuring out OK within the data 

198
00:10:08,200 --> 00:10:09,120
set. 
Where are we? 

199
00:10:11,000 --> 00:10:13,920
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That's gemini.com/brom. 
Like how can we mathematically 

241
00:12:24,080 --> 00:12:26,040
define where we are within the 
data set? 

242
00:12:26,040 --> 00:12:28,680
Meaning how many days have we 
traded above this point? 

243
00:12:28,680 --> 00:12:31,160
How many days have we traded 
below what percentage days, what

244
00:12:31,160 --> 00:12:33,440
percentage above and below? 
Because that gives you a 

245
00:12:33,440 --> 00:12:36,680
reference point at least based 
on the math and all the 

246
00:12:36,680 --> 00:12:39,480
historical data we have, roughly
speaking, where we are. 

247
00:12:39,840 --> 00:12:42,360
And so to me that that started 
to make it useful. 

248
00:12:42,640 --> 00:12:47,760
And so, yeah, I mean that that's
really to a large extent the 

249
00:12:47,760 --> 00:12:50,720
journey I went on and, and I 
collaborated like I, you know, 

250
00:12:50,720 --> 00:12:54,080
I've had calls with lots of 
other great analysts, you know, 

251
00:12:54,120 --> 00:12:58,800
and, and, and we kind of racked 
our brains and, and really the, 

252
00:12:58,800 --> 00:13:01,840
the big breakthrough for for me 
was quantile regression. 

253
00:13:02,520 --> 00:13:05,120
That's kind of a so which which 
we'll see on some of these 

254
00:13:05,120 --> 00:13:08,640
charts we'll share and stuff. 
But yeah, how much did you want 

255
00:13:08,640 --> 00:13:11,360
me to keep going? 
Or maybe have another question? 

256
00:13:12,280 --> 00:13:14,120
Yeah, No, I think, I think this 
is great, right? 

257
00:13:14,120 --> 00:13:17,640
Because what I loved when I 
discovered the power law is 

258
00:13:17,640 --> 00:13:20,960
that, I mean, I don't have a 
math background, but I was just 

259
00:13:20,960 --> 00:13:27,200
very intrigued by the supposedly
predictive nature of this, 

260
00:13:27,200 --> 00:13:28,800
right? 
And I think that's also how 

261
00:13:29,120 --> 00:13:32,160
Giovanni talks about the power 
law that well, apparently 

262
00:13:32,160 --> 00:13:34,120
Bitcoin grows like a power law, 
right? 

263
00:13:34,120 --> 00:13:35,840
Like that, that was the 
discovery. 

264
00:13:35,840 --> 00:13:40,800
And so I really like how you are
now making it practical. 

265
00:13:40,800 --> 00:13:44,480
And so I think that's a great 
bridge to, yeah, talking about 

266
00:13:44,480 --> 00:13:46,840
how your quantile model works, 
right. 

267
00:13:46,840 --> 00:13:50,840
So could you try to explain in, 
in simple terms how the quantile

268
00:13:50,840 --> 00:13:54,880
model predicts these Bitcoin 
price ranges? 

269
00:13:55,680 --> 00:13:59,520
What do the quantiles represent?
And yeah, how how can this 

270
00:13:59,520 --> 00:14:04,720
approach help people to, to get 
insights on, on the on the price

271
00:14:04,720 --> 00:14:07,040
behaviour. 
I have some charts that I can 

272
00:14:07,040 --> 00:14:08,560
pull up. 
I don't know if you if you want 

273
00:14:08,560 --> 00:14:12,040
to pull off the the median 1. 
Yeah, for sure we can. 

274
00:14:12,040 --> 00:14:13,360
We could definitely get in the 
charts. 

275
00:14:13,360 --> 00:14:14,800
What what, what is modeling 
like? 

276
00:14:14,800 --> 00:14:17,960
Why is it useful? 
Like why, why is this a worthy 

277
00:14:17,960 --> 00:14:19,840
pursuit, right? 
You know, Bitcoin just goes up 

278
00:14:19,840 --> 00:14:21,960
into the right, like that's what
a lot of people say or all the 

279
00:14:21,960 --> 00:14:23,200
models will break anyways, 
right. 

280
00:14:23,560 --> 00:14:27,600
But the thing for me is, is, you
know, you can, you can research 

281
00:14:27,600 --> 00:14:29,880
Bitcoin and people get 
conviction in different ways. 

282
00:14:29,880 --> 00:14:32,480
For some people, you know, they 
just really need to understand 

283
00:14:32,480 --> 00:14:35,520
Bitcoin, They need to understand
certain elements of it, you 

284
00:14:35,520 --> 00:14:38,200
know, geopolitics, whatever. 
They have their own ways of 

285
00:14:38,200 --> 00:14:39,920
getting conviction. 
But there's a percentage of 

286
00:14:39,920 --> 00:14:42,520
people that like to see charts 
and they like to see, there's a 

287
00:14:42,520 --> 00:14:44,560
lot of, you know, guys in 
Bitcoin and crypto and 

288
00:14:44,800 --> 00:14:47,960
mathematical minded. 
And so for us, like having a 

289
00:14:47,960 --> 00:14:49,880
tool, we can visually kind of 
zoom out. 

290
00:14:49,880 --> 00:14:52,880
I look at it as a way of zooming
out because throughout the 

291
00:14:52,880 --> 00:14:56,040
cycle, inevitably there's going 
to be moments where our emotions

292
00:14:56,040 --> 00:14:58,760
are tested, right? 
And, and if you're being, if 

293
00:14:58,760 --> 00:15:03,720
you're being influenced to, to a
degree by your emotions, it's 

294
00:15:03,720 --> 00:15:05,760
OK, Obviously we're influenced 
to a degree, but if it's 

295
00:15:05,760 --> 00:15:08,360
excessive, it can cause us to 
make bad decisions. 

296
00:15:08,360 --> 00:15:12,480
And so I look at these tools as 
ways of first coming conviction 

297
00:15:12,480 --> 00:15:13,800
long term. 
If you're going to hold for a 

298
00:15:13,800 --> 00:15:15,720
very long time, it gives you 
that, you know, additional 

299
00:15:15,720 --> 00:15:18,560
conviction. 
But then also, you know, for 

300
00:15:18,560 --> 00:15:21,520
people that maybe don't have 
that extreme conviction yet, it,

301
00:15:21,520 --> 00:15:24,760
it's, it gives them a little bit
of a way of kind of calming your

302
00:15:24,760 --> 00:15:26,960
emotions at times throughout the
cycle and being like, you know 

303
00:15:26,960 --> 00:15:29,200
what, we're just kind of where 
we're supposed to be. 

304
00:15:29,200 --> 00:15:32,800
There's nothing abnormal here, 
even if it feels abnormal, some 

305
00:15:32,800 --> 00:15:35,560
crazy headline, you know, 
there's, there's panic on, on 

306
00:15:35,560 --> 00:15:37,320
social media. 
Social media tends to amplify 

307
00:15:37,320 --> 00:15:39,760
everything anyway. 
So it, it, it makes it even 

308
00:15:39,760 --> 00:15:42,080
worse than it is. 
But but you know, during those 

309
00:15:42,080 --> 00:15:44,960
moments of some people might 
have panic or whatever it, it 

310
00:15:44,960 --> 00:15:48,120
kind of brings you zooms, zooms 
you out and just says, look, you

311
00:15:48,120 --> 00:15:49,360
know what? 
We're kind of where we're 

312
00:15:49,360 --> 00:15:53,240
supposed to be anyway. 
So OK, so, so this image here, 

313
00:15:53,360 --> 00:15:57,320
what this is showing, just to 
keep it super simple, based on 

314
00:15:57,320 --> 00:16:00,920
the Y axis on the left, you know
that. 

315
00:16:01,160 --> 00:16:04,240
So that's, that's price. 
So the way it's being drawn 

316
00:16:04,240 --> 00:16:07,440
there is is not using actual 
price numbers, but it it's 

317
00:16:07,440 --> 00:16:10,800
basically price on the left and 
then on the on the bottom you 

318
00:16:10,800 --> 00:16:12,960
have hours since the Bitcoin 
genesis block. 

319
00:16:12,960 --> 00:16:16,600
So with the quantile model, I'm 
actually using our hourly data. 

320
00:16:16,960 --> 00:16:19,680
So the cool thing about using 
hourly data is you have like 

321
00:16:19,680 --> 00:16:22,040
132,000 data points at this 
point. 

322
00:16:22,240 --> 00:16:26,360
So it's a ton of data and it's 
really useful because when we're

323
00:16:26,360 --> 00:16:30,080
looking at the upper quantiles, 
even the top 1% of the data set,

324
00:16:30,080 --> 00:16:32,480
we still have a 1300 data 
points. 

325
00:16:32,480 --> 00:16:34,800
So I like to use the hourly 
data. 

326
00:16:35,080 --> 00:16:39,280
And so basically, yeah, the X 
axis there is our since the 

327
00:16:39,280 --> 00:16:42,160
Bitcoin genesis block. 
And then on the Y axis we have 

328
00:16:42,160 --> 00:16:44,520
time. 
And so I like to look at it in 

329
00:16:44,520 --> 00:16:47,920
this way. 
You can look at it in in log, 

330
00:16:47,920 --> 00:16:50,120
log. 
So, so some people, sorry, some 

331
00:16:50,120 --> 00:16:52,520
people don't understand this. 
You can actually visually look 

332
00:16:52,520 --> 00:16:57,240
at something and have the X&Y 
axis is different than the 

333
00:16:57,240 --> 00:17:00,360
actual math. 
So the math behind this is log 

334
00:17:00,360 --> 00:17:02,600
versus log. 
But the visual I'm showing is 

335
00:17:02,600 --> 00:17:04,480
log linear. 
And the reason why is it's so 

336
00:17:04,480 --> 00:17:07,560
much more intuitive. 
If you're looking at the Y axis 

337
00:17:07,560 --> 00:17:10,760
log and the X axis log, you just
see the straight line. 

338
00:17:11,000 --> 00:17:13,640
But The thing is humans perceive
time linearly. 

339
00:17:13,640 --> 00:17:17,800
We don't perceive time log. 
So it it really condenses the 

340
00:17:17,800 --> 00:17:20,520
end of the chart and makes it 
confusing for people to kind of 

341
00:17:20,520 --> 00:17:23,079
understand. 
So I find this view personally a

342
00:17:23,079 --> 00:17:27,119
lot better and more intuitive. 
So on this chart where you have 

343
00:17:27,119 --> 00:17:31,200
the red line, what that 
represents is basically a median

344
00:17:31,200 --> 00:17:34,160
regression. 
And so it's a 0.5 quantile 

345
00:17:34,160 --> 00:17:36,760
regression. 
What that means is 50% of the 

346
00:17:36,760 --> 00:17:39,840
data points. 
So if you take all 132,000 data 

347
00:17:39,840 --> 00:17:42,240
points for Bitcoin, all the 
hours since the very beginning, 

348
00:17:43,080 --> 00:17:46,920
basically you have 50% of the 
data that falls below that line,

349
00:17:47,000 --> 00:17:50,560
50% that falls above that line. 
And so it's a mathematical 

350
00:17:50,560 --> 00:17:52,680
formula, but essentially it 
creates that line. 

351
00:17:52,680 --> 00:17:55,840
So this you could call as like 
the trend line, or you could 

352
00:17:55,840 --> 00:17:58,080
call, some people might call it 
fair value. 

353
00:17:58,440 --> 00:18:00,440
You know, you could argue if 
it's fair value or not, but it's

354
00:18:00,440 --> 00:18:03,920
a pretty good approximation. 
But yeah, I don't know if you 

355
00:18:03,920 --> 00:18:06,360
have any specific questions, but
it it just, it's, it's actually 

356
00:18:06,360 --> 00:18:09,720
the starting point for my model.
So the model has multiple steps,

357
00:18:10,200 --> 00:18:13,200
but the starting point is simply
doing a what's called a quantile

358
00:18:13,200 --> 00:18:15,080
regression or a median 
regression. 

359
00:18:15,440 --> 00:18:19,120
Yeah. 
And so the median is the 

360
00:18:19,120 --> 00:18:24,640
starting point to go up and down
to eventually predict or show to

361
00:18:24,640 --> 00:18:28,240
a degree what eventually all the
different segments are, right. 

362
00:18:28,240 --> 00:18:31,120
I'm just. 
I'm just rephrasing or or or or 

363
00:18:31,120 --> 00:18:34,240
replying to to make it more 
simple as I'm not. 

364
00:18:34,520 --> 00:18:36,800
Yeah, no, appreciate that. 
Don't make it definitely useful 

365
00:18:36,800 --> 00:18:39,360
to do. 
So the first thing I noticed 

366
00:18:39,360 --> 00:18:43,800
when I when I saw this, but also
that the power law graph is you 

367
00:18:44,920 --> 00:18:48,400
and I also don't like the 
diminishing returns idea, but 

368
00:18:48,400 --> 00:18:51,120
you kind of you kind of do see 
it, right? 

369
00:18:52,320 --> 00:18:55,160
Maybe I shouldn't say I don't 
like it, but I don't understand 

370
00:18:55,160 --> 00:18:58,720
it as there, you know, 
conceptually when I think about 

371
00:18:58,720 --> 00:19:04,800
absolute finite supply combined 
with logically overtime an 

372
00:19:04,800 --> 00:19:09,720
infinite amount of demand as the
reason of existence, right? 

373
00:19:09,720 --> 00:19:13,280
The problem with the debasement 
of the currency will be more 

374
00:19:13,280 --> 00:19:16,760
clear to more people, more 
people will try to find a way 

375
00:19:16,760 --> 00:19:21,760
out, right? 
So the demand will, will go up, 

376
00:19:21,760 --> 00:19:23,320
at least conceptually in my 
head. 

377
00:19:23,320 --> 00:19:25,800
But in practice, you see that 
there's something else 

378
00:19:25,800 --> 00:19:27,520
happening. 
Doesn't mean it, it cannot 

379
00:19:27,520 --> 00:19:29,440
change. 
But that was for me like 1 of 

380
00:19:29,440 --> 00:19:32,640
the things where I was like, OK,
that's interesting because I 

381
00:19:32,640 --> 00:19:37,120
would suspect like a supply 
squeeze at some point. 

382
00:19:37,120 --> 00:19:40,680
But in this, in these 15 years, 
we've seen that it actually it 

383
00:19:40,680 --> 00:19:43,400
does grow, right? 
But there are diminishing 

384
00:19:43,480 --> 00:19:46,080
returns up until now, we have to
say. 

385
00:19:46,280 --> 00:19:51,320
Yeah, Yeah, that's definitely. 
I mean, in a way I understand 

386
00:19:51,320 --> 00:19:54,760
that people kind of might be 
averse to that initially because

387
00:19:54,760 --> 00:19:58,080
it's like, OK, you know, we're 
never going to see those gains 

388
00:19:58,080 --> 00:20:01,800
back that we had in 2013. 
But you have to understand it's 

389
00:20:02,320 --> 00:20:05,280
there's also a stabilization 
element, there's a less 

390
00:20:05,280 --> 00:20:08,240
volatility element, the people 
back in 2013, I mean. 

391
00:20:08,840 --> 00:20:11,440
There was way more volatile the,
the, the, the trend of 

392
00:20:11,440 --> 00:20:13,840
volatility actually has gone 
down over the course of 

393
00:20:13,840 --> 00:20:16,320
Bitcoin's history, very similar 
to the diminishing returns. 

394
00:20:16,320 --> 00:20:19,360
There's a clear reduction of 
volatility, a pattern that no 

395
00:20:19,400 --> 00:20:21,360
one can deny since the beginning
of Bitcoin. 

396
00:20:21,680 --> 00:20:24,600
And so, you know, there's less 
fluctuations in the price, it's 

397
00:20:24,600 --> 00:20:26,880
more stable, there's thicker 
order books. 

398
00:20:26,960 --> 00:20:29,160
There's lots of ways you can 
speak to this, you know, higher 

399
00:20:29,160 --> 00:20:33,840
market cap, more clear adoption,
you know, so all these all these

400
00:20:33,840 --> 00:20:37,760
things are making it less, it's 
easier to hold now than it was 

401
00:20:37,760 --> 00:20:40,120
in 2013. 
I mean, you got, we got to think

402
00:20:40,120 --> 00:20:42,960
about it relatively speaking, 
OK, maybe there was potentially 

403
00:20:42,960 --> 00:20:46,040
more gains back then. 
However, you know, the people 

404
00:20:46,040 --> 00:20:49,720
back then had to have a lot of a
lot of conviction because they 

405
00:20:49,720 --> 00:20:52,000
didn't know all the things we 
know now how much Bitcoin has 

406
00:20:52,000 --> 00:20:54,280
been adopted and, and it's 
there's a lot of maybes back 

407
00:20:54,280 --> 00:20:55,360
then. 
Now there's things that have 

408
00:20:55,360 --> 00:20:57,760
actually occurred. 
Plus the volatility is way down.

409
00:20:57,760 --> 00:21:00,760
And so people don't have to, you
know, hold through those as 

410
00:21:00,760 --> 00:21:02,880
extreme periods, although of 
course there's still going to be

411
00:21:02,880 --> 00:21:06,800
some extreme periods. 
But so it's, it's, I mean, it's 

412
00:21:06,800 --> 00:21:08,760
just what it is, what it is. 
I mean, all we can do. 

413
00:21:09,240 --> 00:21:12,680
My, my personal thing is I just 
want to present the data the way

414
00:21:12,680 --> 00:21:14,800
it is. 
I mean, I can say, I can say 

415
00:21:14,800 --> 00:21:17,840
something that's not true if you
want, you know, I can say like, 

416
00:21:17,840 --> 00:21:20,840
oh, we're going to go to, you 
know, 5 million next month. 

417
00:21:21,680 --> 00:21:24,200
It's, it's just, it's not the 
reality of any pattern we're 

418
00:21:24,200 --> 00:21:26,200
seeing now. 
If U.S. dollar completely 

419
00:21:26,200 --> 00:21:30,160
collapses, you know, people 
don't understand how dangerous a

420
00:21:30,160 --> 00:21:32,680
world it would be to live in if 
Bitcoin went to 5 million 

421
00:21:32,680 --> 00:21:34,000
tomorrow. 
Like you don't want that. 

422
00:21:34,600 --> 00:21:38,000
You want this kind of healthy 
adoption over time. 

423
00:21:38,320 --> 00:21:41,720
And that's really how a lot of 
these networks have have gained 

424
00:21:41,720 --> 00:21:43,040
adoption. 
Like the Internet, you know, you

425
00:21:43,040 --> 00:21:45,960
could say, or there's so many 
other examples of networks and, 

426
00:21:46,040 --> 00:21:48,200
and Bitcoin is a, is a, it is a 
network. 

427
00:21:48,760 --> 00:21:51,560
It is a financial asset 
obviously as well. 

428
00:21:51,680 --> 00:21:53,680
So it's, it's complex. 
There's a lot of elements. 

429
00:21:53,680 --> 00:21:55,880
It's kind of a network, a 
network of networks, so to 

430
00:21:55,880 --> 00:21:59,040
speak. 
But yeah, it's to me, I'm fine 

431
00:21:59,040 --> 00:22:00,760
with the diminishing returns 
because there's still tons of 

432
00:22:00,760 --> 00:22:03,880
returns left and it's easier now
to hold Bitcoin than ever. 

433
00:22:04,240 --> 00:22:07,520
And if, if there is some sort of
a collapse of the system in the 

434
00:22:07,520 --> 00:22:12,880
short term, yeah, we might, we 
might see even bigger, we might,

435
00:22:12,960 --> 00:22:15,400
we might get even bigger returns
than expected. 

436
00:22:15,600 --> 00:22:20,160
I still think the overall trend 
is diminishing returns because 

437
00:22:20,160 --> 00:22:22,920
you just need so much more money
to keep those returns. 

438
00:22:22,920 --> 00:22:25,440
Like as the market cap grows, it
just, there's only so much money

439
00:22:25,440 --> 00:22:28,880
in the world, right? 
Or, or so much denominated Fiat,

440
00:22:29,280 --> 00:22:31,800
whatever value. 
So anyways, it's a whole nother.

441
00:22:31,800 --> 00:22:34,080
It's a whole deep conversation 
of itself, the whole diminishing

442
00:22:34,080 --> 00:22:36,120
returns. 
But I'll just show you the data.

443
00:22:36,120 --> 00:22:39,600
And then I mean, it's it's it's 
definitely still very bullish as

444
00:22:39,600 --> 00:22:42,920
far as lots of gains, you know, 
coming chill. 

445
00:22:42,960 --> 00:22:46,640
And yeah, we're not too late so 
to speak, right? 

446
00:22:46,880 --> 00:22:50,440
No, I I think it's great because
like I'm saying that I don't 

447
00:22:50,440 --> 00:22:53,120
like the diminishing returns 
because I'd rather see some sort

448
00:22:53,120 --> 00:22:55,720
of short squeeze, but that's 
just what I really want to see. 

449
00:22:57,160 --> 00:23:00,560
I think actually seeing the math
has definitely helped me. 

450
00:23:00,560 --> 00:23:03,720
Also my conviction over time and
what you said, like this cycle, 

451
00:23:03,720 --> 00:23:07,600
I am super chill, right? 
Like whether we go up and down 

452
00:23:07,600 --> 00:23:10,800
even when we hit, you know, the 
hundred 2425, I'm like, yeah, 

453
00:23:10,800 --> 00:23:13,840
OK, of course we hit that right.
Like that's so it's, it's, it's,

454
00:23:13,840 --> 00:23:18,320
I think more conviction to a 
degree, but also more 

455
00:23:18,680 --> 00:23:23,880
foundational, right? 
Like I'm, I'm, I'm, I'm content 

456
00:23:23,880 --> 00:23:25,640
with my choice going all in on 
this. 

457
00:23:25,640 --> 00:23:27,400
Like that's how I'm following it
now. 

458
00:23:27,400 --> 00:23:31,560
And it's just different also 
emotionally than 2017 so. 

459
00:23:32,720 --> 00:23:34,720
Yeah, yeah, the next one there, 
so, yeah, yeah. 

460
00:23:34,800 --> 00:23:38,960
And so the very last thing on 
the last topic is if people, you

461
00:23:38,960 --> 00:23:42,120
know, I'm not telling people 
what to do for sure, but there 

462
00:23:42,120 --> 00:23:44,840
are ways to get exposure to more
volatility while still being 

463
00:23:44,840 --> 00:23:46,840
connected to Bitcoin. 
And, and we're speaking on 

464
00:23:46,840 --> 00:23:48,040
Bitcoin today. 
I don't really, you know, we 

465
00:23:48,040 --> 00:23:50,280
don't have to speak on other 
things, but you know, there are 

466
00:23:50,280 --> 00:23:53,160
still other ways. 
If you have long term conviction

467
00:23:53,160 --> 00:23:55,880
of Bitcoin that you can, you 
know, potentially hold something

468
00:23:55,880 --> 00:23:58,960
like MicroStrategy or some 
other, you know, vehicle that 

469
00:23:58,960 --> 00:24:02,000
gives you potentially, you know,
kind of reverses the clock back 

470
00:24:02,000 --> 00:24:04,440
five years and you might have 
some of that volatility that 

471
00:24:04,520 --> 00:24:07,720
existed back then still. 
But it's all about conviction of

472
00:24:07,720 --> 00:24:09,040
Bitcoin at the end of the day 
for me. 

473
00:24:09,840 --> 00:24:12,880
So yeah, this this chart here. 
So basically what I did with the

474
00:24:12,880 --> 00:24:18,560
first chart is we, we created 
that initial line in the middle 

475
00:24:18,560 --> 00:24:21,360
of the data set. 
So 50% of the data above, 50% 

476
00:24:21,360 --> 00:24:23,760
below, you know, 50% of the days
above and below. 

477
00:24:24,120 --> 00:24:26,720
And then what we've done is 
we've actually, what I did is 

478
00:24:26,720 --> 00:24:28,920
actually removed all the data 
above that line. 

479
00:24:29,160 --> 00:24:32,320
So I actually removed that data.
And then this is just the data, 

480
00:24:32,320 --> 00:24:35,400
the bottom 50% of the data set. 
And then what I did is I did 

481
00:24:35,400 --> 00:24:37,920
another, it's called an, you 
could call it an iterative 

482
00:24:38,520 --> 00:24:41,560
median quantile regression. 
So essentially you know, you're 

483
00:24:41,560 --> 00:24:44,880
finding again now the the 
midpoint of this bottom 50% of 

484
00:24:44,880 --> 00:24:48,080
the data set. 
And so the reason why this is 

485
00:24:48,080 --> 00:24:51,320
valuable is essentially what 
you're doing is you're saying, 

486
00:24:51,320 --> 00:24:54,040
OK, what's the trend for the 
bottom 50%, right. 

487
00:24:54,200 --> 00:24:58,520
The bottom 50% over time seems 
to be more stable. 

488
00:24:58,520 --> 00:25:01,320
This is more, you could say the 
power law, you know, part of the

489
00:25:01,320 --> 00:25:05,800
data set or whatever, but it's 
essentially it's, it's a very 

490
00:25:05,800 --> 00:25:10,120
stable and very consistent. 
The bottoms are, are have 

491
00:25:10,120 --> 00:25:11,720
actually followed very similar 
patterns. 

492
00:25:11,920 --> 00:25:13,960
You know, the tops are a little 
bit harder to model, but 

493
00:25:13,960 --> 00:25:16,800
essentially with this, you get a
with this line by creating this,

494
00:25:17,160 --> 00:25:20,600
this median quantum regression 
line here, I'm basically saying,

495
00:25:21,080 --> 00:25:24,240
you know, there's 50% of the 
data, 50% above and below for 

496
00:25:24,240 --> 00:25:27,720
the bottom 50% of the data set. 
So in this case, it's 25% below,

497
00:25:28,000 --> 00:25:31,280
25% above. 
And so the reason why this is 

498
00:25:31,280 --> 00:25:36,240
useful is this, this line now 
taking into account 50% of the 

499
00:25:36,240 --> 00:25:40,560
data, it's a very useful trend 
line that we can actually take. 

500
00:25:40,800 --> 00:25:45,840
And then we can basically, you 
know, use it and we can we can 

501
00:25:45,840 --> 00:25:48,360
then pinpoint different parts of
the data set. 

502
00:25:48,360 --> 00:25:52,320
Because for, for me, you, when 
you're doing quantum regression,

503
00:25:52,520 --> 00:25:55,680
you want to have a shared slope 
for sections of the data because

504
00:25:56,360 --> 00:25:58,880
otherwise there's a potential 
for crossing of quantiles like 

505
00:25:59,120 --> 00:26:01,800
way out into the future. 
So I like this is a very clean 

506
00:26:01,800 --> 00:26:03,800
way of doing it where you 
essentially say, OK, here's my 

507
00:26:03,800 --> 00:26:06,800
trend line for the bottom 50%. 
And now what I'm going to do is 

508
00:26:06,800 --> 00:26:11,320
take that and we can move that 
up and down to essentially 

509
00:26:11,320 --> 00:26:14,200
assess, you know, you can 
basically take the same slope 

510
00:26:14,200 --> 00:26:16,560
and intercept, it's called of 
that line. 

511
00:26:16,920 --> 00:26:20,040
And then we can say, OK, but 
let's move it down so that only 

512
00:26:20,040 --> 00:26:23,240
5% of the data is below it or 
10% of the data is bloat or 

513
00:26:23,240 --> 00:26:26,240
whatever we want to do. 
So this is and, and it's based 

514
00:26:26,240 --> 00:26:29,760
on again, a lot of data. 
And this is a median regression 

515
00:26:29,760 --> 00:26:30,800
line. 
And the, the thing about 

516
00:26:30,800 --> 00:26:33,680
quantile regression and medium 
regression is it's robust 

517
00:26:33,680 --> 00:26:35,840
outliers. 
So it actually statistically is 

518
00:26:35,840 --> 00:26:38,000
a very good way of doing it. 
It's better than in my opinion, 

519
00:26:38,000 --> 00:26:41,840
than doing a mean regression, 
which is an anyways. 

520
00:26:41,840 --> 00:26:43,560
We don't need to go on the 
statistics stuff as much. 

521
00:26:43,560 --> 00:26:46,320
No, no, go ahead. 
But I think it's because because

522
00:26:46,360 --> 00:26:53,720
the maybe use why you find it 
better? 

523
00:26:53,720 --> 00:26:58,000
Like what's the what? 
So immediate, just to keep it 

524
00:26:58,000 --> 00:27:00,960
super simple, the median 
quantile regression, what it's 

525
00:27:01,640 --> 00:27:04,200
what it's so good at. 
Again, you can't do this with 

526
00:27:04,200 --> 00:27:05,840
other types of regressions like 
it. 

527
00:27:05,840 --> 00:27:10,640
It's able to basically you can 
pinpoint exactly how much data 

528
00:27:10,640 --> 00:27:14,360
you want below, above and below 
the line, the regression line, 

529
00:27:14,360 --> 00:27:18,680
but also it doesn't overly 
emphasize outliers. 

530
00:27:18,680 --> 00:27:23,120
So if you have, you know, data 
that is just just a random 

531
00:27:23,120 --> 00:27:25,840
outlier, it doesn't skew the 
data set. 

532
00:27:25,840 --> 00:27:27,840
It, it really focuses on the 
core trend. 

533
00:27:27,840 --> 00:27:30,560
So I would say it's, it's 
exceptionally good at capturing 

534
00:27:30,560 --> 00:27:35,000
the core trend and just kind of 
being less, less affected by 

535
00:27:35,000 --> 00:27:38,600
noise or outliers in the data. 
And, and again, by using as much

536
00:27:38,600 --> 00:27:41,120
that as we are and using a 
quantum regression line, I just 

537
00:27:41,120 --> 00:27:45,040
feel it's, it's the most solid 
way to create these trend lines.

538
00:27:45,360 --> 00:27:48,160
And so basically we have, you 
know, the main trend line, which

539
00:27:48,160 --> 00:27:50,760
is the middle of the data set. 
And now we have this, you know, 

540
00:27:50,880 --> 00:27:56,520
iterative bottom line that we've
now drawn where we have 25% of 

541
00:27:56,520 --> 00:27:58,280
the overall data set above and 
below it. 

542
00:27:58,400 --> 00:28:02,240
So yeah, that's basically it's a
combination of steps to get to 

543
00:28:02,240 --> 00:28:03,040
the model. 
You'll see. 

544
00:28:03,040 --> 00:28:03,920
But we're getting. 
We're getting. 

545
00:28:03,920 --> 00:28:06,120
Yeah, yeah, yeah. 
No, we're, we're, we're going 

546
00:28:06,160 --> 00:28:09,880
through the steps. 
I'm trying to look up, I don't 

547
00:28:09,880 --> 00:28:13,800
know if you've ever heard that, 
but I, I, I find it really cool 

548
00:28:13,800 --> 00:28:16,360
that you use the hourly data, 
right? 

549
00:28:16,360 --> 00:28:20,680
So you have so many data points.
I don't know if you've heard 

550
00:28:20,680 --> 00:28:24,520
like, you know, most of the 
Bitcoin gains are made in like 

551
00:28:24,680 --> 00:28:26,760
I'm going to say 10 days in the 
cycle. 

552
00:28:26,800 --> 00:28:31,080
I don't know if it's 10 or it 
could be less right, but maybe 

553
00:28:31,080 --> 00:28:33,920
you know the real number but. 
Like, yeah, it is important to 

554
00:28:33,920 --> 00:28:36,920
use hourly dot in my opinion. 
It's not easy to get hourly dot,

555
00:28:36,920 --> 00:28:39,960
but it is useful. 
And the reason why is because 

556
00:28:39,960 --> 00:28:43,400
ultimately, you know, when we 
are kind of closer to the peaks,

557
00:28:43,400 --> 00:28:46,240
I mean, to me trying to sell the
exact peak, that's really not 

558
00:28:46,240 --> 00:28:48,760
what it's about. 
It's it's about, you know, kind 

559
00:28:48,760 --> 00:28:50,760
of for the people that want to 
sell a percentage of their 

560
00:28:50,760 --> 00:28:53,080
Bitcoin or whatever, you can 
ladder out kind of around the 

561
00:28:53,080 --> 00:28:55,560
peak. 
So, but the price does 

562
00:28:55,560 --> 00:28:57,800
potentially move pretty quickly,
at least that's what we've seen 

563
00:28:57,800 --> 00:28:59,920
historically. 
And so having access to hourly 

564
00:28:59,920 --> 00:29:02,480
data just gives us more updates 
on where we are within the data 

565
00:29:02,480 --> 00:29:05,920
set. 
And it's just also I just, it's 

566
00:29:05,920 --> 00:29:07,560
just more data. 
It's it's quite a bit more data.

567
00:29:07,560 --> 00:29:11,680
You're 24 times more so and like
and like you and like you said, 

568
00:29:11,680 --> 00:29:15,120
right. 
I mean, you know, there's the 

569
00:29:15,120 --> 00:29:18,240
gains are, are in a a relatively
small period of period of time 

570
00:29:18,240 --> 00:29:21,200
historically. 
So it's good to have that 

571
00:29:21,200 --> 00:29:24,240
granularity for all the data 
within those periods. 

572
00:29:24,400 --> 00:29:27,000
So when we are looking at the 
top, you know, 5% of the data 

573
00:29:27,000 --> 00:29:30,800
set, we still have a significant
amount of data that way by using

574
00:29:30,800 --> 00:29:32,480
hourly data. 
So that's basically the reason. 

575
00:29:34,760 --> 00:29:37,720
If you want to self custody your
Bitcoin stack, I recommend the 

576
00:29:37,720 --> 00:29:40,880
Blockstream Jade Plus. 
I've been using this premium 

577
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578
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design and ease of use. 
What makes it stand out is it's 

579
00:29:47,320 --> 00:29:50,280
open source hardware and 
software and block streams 

580
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581
00:29:53,520 --> 00:29:56,280
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582
00:29:56,680 --> 00:30:00,680
You can connect with the J plus 
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583
00:30:00,840 --> 00:30:03,680
or you can go fully air gapped 
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584
00:30:03,680 --> 00:30:07,200
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585
00:30:07,200 --> 00:30:09,920
the color screen is easy to read
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586
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favorite Bitcoin apps like Block
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587
00:30:13,280 --> 00:30:15,560
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588
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589
00:30:19,640 --> 00:30:23,840
entire order. 
Let's talk about something that 

590
00:30:23,840 --> 00:30:26,360
not a lot of people think about 
before it's too late. 

591
00:30:26,520 --> 00:30:28,920
Where are you storing your 
Bitcoin seed words? 

592
00:30:29,120 --> 00:30:32,160
Are they truly secure? 
I found my solution with Stamp 

593
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594
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595
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596
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597
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598
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599
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600
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601
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602
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603
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604
00:31:04,800 --> 00:31:07,440
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605
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606
00:31:10,680 --> 00:31:12,880
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607
00:31:12,880 --> 00:31:17,560
That's BR AM to get 15% of. 
Your order yeah, yeah, now 

608
00:31:17,560 --> 00:31:20,240
that's that's exactly why I said
like the granularity because 

609
00:31:20,240 --> 00:31:24,680
there aren't just that many 
days, right And it's at the left

610
00:31:24,880 --> 00:31:26,640
you said I have 24 times more 
data. 

611
00:31:26,640 --> 00:31:28,280
I said oh wow. 
But then I was like, yeah, of 

612
00:31:28,280 --> 00:31:32,320
course there's no. 
I mean, but it but it I I for me

613
00:31:32,320 --> 00:31:33,160
too. 
It's the same thing. 

614
00:31:33,160 --> 00:31:35,400
I was like looking, I'm like, 
OK, I have the data set, OK, 

615
00:31:35,400 --> 00:31:37,920
6000 something data points. 
I'm like, OK, that's pretty 

616
00:31:37,920 --> 00:31:39,080
good. 
Daily is pretty good. 

617
00:31:39,480 --> 00:31:42,680
And then I, I did the hourly, 
I'm like 130 something thousand 

618
00:31:42,680 --> 00:31:44,640
data points. 
I'm like, of course, I mean, 

619
00:31:44,640 --> 00:31:47,600
it's 24 times more, but it just 
clicked to me how much more data

620
00:31:47,600 --> 00:31:49,040
it really is. 
Like when you're downloading the

621
00:31:49,040 --> 00:31:51,360
file and stuff, you're like, OK,
this is this is more data. 

622
00:31:51,360 --> 00:31:53,320
So yeah, it's definitely a big 
jump. 

623
00:31:54,080 --> 00:31:55,840
And then from there you can 
actually even go to 10 minute 

624
00:31:55,840 --> 00:31:59,000
data, which I had access to in 
the past, but I actually don't 

625
00:31:59,000 --> 00:32:00,120
think there's a big difference 
there. 

626
00:32:00,120 --> 00:32:02,560
I actually think hourly is kind 
of, in my opinion anyways, 

627
00:32:02,560 --> 00:32:03,880
everyone, everyone have their 
own opinions. 

628
00:32:03,880 --> 00:32:07,160
I think it's better than 10 
minute for this use case. 10 

629
00:32:07,160 --> 00:32:10,200
minute you can actually start to
get affected more by too much 

630
00:32:10,200 --> 00:32:12,080
glanularity, too much potential 
noise. 

631
00:32:12,080 --> 00:32:15,240
So and it's not as accurate on 
the 10 minutes sometimes. 

632
00:32:15,240 --> 00:32:18,000
So anyways, the hourly is kind 
of the the Goldilocks zone for 

633
00:32:18,000 --> 00:32:19,760
me. 
Yeah. 

634
00:32:19,760 --> 00:32:25,000
And then the next chart here. 
So, So what I've done now is we 

635
00:32:25,000 --> 00:32:28,320
take that from the last chart 
just to explain it. 

636
00:32:28,320 --> 00:32:31,720
We take that, that now that 
trend fit for the bottom 50% of 

637
00:32:31,720 --> 00:32:34,800
the data. 
And I actually take that and I, 

638
00:32:34,800 --> 00:32:37,800
and I actually, I know this 
sounds crazy, but I basically 

639
00:32:37,800 --> 00:32:42,840
use that, that slope and 
intercept to, to make 999 fits. 

640
00:32:43,280 --> 00:32:48,000
So the reason why is or sorry, 
sorry, 505 hundred fits. 

641
00:32:48,080 --> 00:32:51,720
And the, and the reason why is 
because at every .1 quantile, I 

642
00:32:51,720 --> 00:32:55,600
actually have a line drawn all 
the way from 0.1 all the way up 

643
00:32:55,600 --> 00:33:03,200
to 0.50.01, I should say 
anyways, but basically point 1% 

644
00:33:03,200 --> 00:33:05,480
of the data all the way up to 
50%. 

645
00:33:05,480 --> 00:33:09,680
So there's actually 500 fits in 
the bottom 50% of the data set 

646
00:33:09,680 --> 00:33:13,120
using that exact a regression 
line. 

647
00:33:13,280 --> 00:33:16,320
But then we move it up and down 
so that we can have that way 

648
00:33:16,320 --> 00:33:18,760
the, the lines will never cross.
There's never some people say 

649
00:33:18,760 --> 00:33:20,960
like, oh, quantum regression, 
you'll have crossing not when 

650
00:33:20,960 --> 00:33:23,280
you use a global slope. 
It's actually a very good 

651
00:33:23,280 --> 00:33:26,600
statistical way to do it because
there's no chance you'll ever 

652
00:33:26,600 --> 00:33:29,960
have crossing of these lines 
because they're basically there.

653
00:33:29,960 --> 00:33:33,440
It's a family of fits you, you 
from all the way from 0.1 

654
00:33:34,320 --> 00:33:36,400
percent all the way up to 50% of
the data. 

655
00:33:36,720 --> 00:33:39,840
We have 500 fits now and that 
way we can pinpoint exactly 

656
00:33:39,840 --> 00:33:41,400
where we are within the data set
using that. 

657
00:33:41,560 --> 00:33:45,280
And So what you're seeing here 
now on this chart, I did that 

658
00:33:45,280 --> 00:33:49,600
last step and then I basically, 
I actually took that same fit 

659
00:33:49,640 --> 00:33:52,560
and I actually used it on the 
0.5 quantile regression line. 

660
00:33:52,800 --> 00:33:56,520
So I actually overrode that 
first fit because this the new 

661
00:33:56,520 --> 00:33:58,560
fit. 
I wanted to say, OK, from there,

662
00:33:58,720 --> 00:34:01,360
what I want to do now that I 
have this, this trend for the 

663
00:34:01,360 --> 00:34:05,000
bottom 50% of the data set from 
there I want to analyze the top 

664
00:34:05,000 --> 00:34:06,640
50%, right? 
That's the next step. 

665
00:34:06,640 --> 00:34:08,800
Naturally, OK, we understand the
bottom 50%. 

666
00:34:08,800 --> 00:34:11,600
We have a really good trend. 
We, we've created all our, our 

667
00:34:11,600 --> 00:34:15,120
500 fits. 
And then from there, now we want

668
00:34:15,120 --> 00:34:18,760
to look at the top half. 
And so I basically replace that,

669
00:34:18,760 --> 00:34:21,800
that initial median fit with the
the new one because it's 

670
00:34:21,800 --> 00:34:24,080
actually the right way to do it.
It's just a, it's just a better 

671
00:34:24,080 --> 00:34:26,960
statistical way to do it. 
And then because because 

672
00:34:26,960 --> 00:34:29,920
otherwise the top 50% of the 
data is actually influencing 

673
00:34:29,920 --> 00:34:31,360
that initial fit. 
I don't know if that makes 

674
00:34:31,360 --> 00:34:34,840
sense, but that initial line we 
had through the the very first 

675
00:34:34,840 --> 00:34:39,320
chart, that's, that's the middle
fit of the top and the bottom 

676
00:34:39,320 --> 00:34:42,199
half, right? 
So it's being influenced by the 

677
00:34:42,320 --> 00:34:44,639
outliers on the top. 
So even though it's a median 

678
00:34:45,000 --> 00:34:46,840
quantum regression, I talked 
about it being robust to 

679
00:34:46,840 --> 00:34:50,600
outliers, there still is an 
influence to a degree of of, of 

680
00:34:50,600 --> 00:34:53,719
incorporating that top 50. 
So I instead use the actual 

681
00:34:54,440 --> 00:34:57,280
trend from the bottom half to 
create that line again in the 

682
00:34:57,280 --> 00:34:59,080
middle. 
So actually recreate this line 

683
00:34:59,240 --> 00:35:01,160
now using the trend from the 
bottom half. 

684
00:35:01,360 --> 00:35:03,080
It's it's, it's, it's a detailed
thing. 

685
00:35:03,240 --> 00:35:04,440
People don't need to understand 
that. 

686
00:35:04,680 --> 00:35:08,520
It's just like, I'm all, all, 
all to say is that every step of

687
00:35:08,520 --> 00:35:11,080
the way I'm looking to optimize 
this model like it's, it's just 

688
00:35:11,080 --> 00:35:14,320
the best way to do it. 
And So what this is, is actually

689
00:35:14,400 --> 00:35:18,040
multiples, if people understand.
So it's, it's multiples versus 

690
00:35:18,040 --> 00:35:20,400
the trend line. 
So now we have the, we've 

691
00:35:20,400 --> 00:35:24,040
redrawn the mean so that that 
middle line from the first 

692
00:35:24,040 --> 00:35:27,440
image, we we have that now. 
And from there we can actually 

693
00:35:27,440 --> 00:35:31,280
look at a ratio. 
So how many times do we go above

694
00:35:31,280 --> 00:35:35,080
that line and and a ratio? 
And so a ratio of one would be 

695
00:35:35,080 --> 00:35:37,480
the trend line, right? 
If, if we go, if, if the price 

696
00:35:37,480 --> 00:35:41,480
went twice as high back in 
whatever time period, that would

697
00:35:41,480 --> 00:35:43,840
be a ratio of two. 
So that those numbers on the 

698
00:35:43,840 --> 00:35:47,080
left you're seeing those are the
ratios versus the trend line 

699
00:35:47,080 --> 00:35:48,480
since the very beginning of 
Bitcoin. 

700
00:35:48,800 --> 00:35:51,200
And so you can see that first 
peak, right? 

701
00:35:51,320 --> 00:35:55,920
We went up to like 28 times. 
So the price was 28 times higher

702
00:35:55,920 --> 00:35:58,960
than the trend line than that, 
than that median regression. 

703
00:35:59,360 --> 00:36:05,240
And you can see, you know, as 
2013 went to about 15/20/18 or 

704
00:36:05,240 --> 00:36:08,840
2017 at the end of 2718. 
You know, it's, it's hard to see

705
00:36:08,840 --> 00:36:10,640
exactly, but it's like maybe 8 
or 7. 

706
00:36:10,880 --> 00:36:13,760
So there's a clear trend of 
diminishing returns. 

707
00:36:13,760 --> 00:36:17,360
I mean, people can deny it, but 
it's visually apparent. 

708
00:36:17,360 --> 00:36:23,720
I mean, it's just the fact of of
what it is, but so yeah, that 

709
00:36:23,720 --> 00:36:27,280
that's basically it. 
So you have one is the is the 

710
00:36:27,280 --> 00:36:28,720
trend line on this on this 
chart. 

711
00:36:29,040 --> 00:36:32,080
And you can just visually see 
how high we've gone above the 

712
00:36:32,080 --> 00:36:35,480
trend, which is the middle of 
the day. 

713
00:36:35,480 --> 00:36:38,080
I said how high we've gone above
it since the beginning and you 

714
00:36:38,080 --> 00:36:39,960
can see it visually. 
That's basically. 

715
00:36:41,480 --> 00:36:43,400
So what are your thoughts? 
I guess visually seen that I 

716
00:36:43,400 --> 00:36:47,600
don't know if you've ever seen. 
When I look at this, it seems I 

717
00:36:47,640 --> 00:36:51,680
know my translation if I look at
the bottom right would be we are

718
00:36:51,680 --> 00:36:56,600
going sideways but slightly 
below or slightly above. 

719
00:36:57,160 --> 00:37:05,680
But the just from my eye like 
the that we could still go quite

720
00:37:05,680 --> 00:37:08,880
a bit higher until we're still 
lower than the previous one. 

721
00:37:08,880 --> 00:37:12,560
Basically around the one around 
like 2021 basically. 

722
00:37:12,560 --> 00:37:19,240
So my translation here would be,
and that's kind of the sentiment

723
00:37:19,240 --> 00:37:24,560
I'm seeing also like on the on 
the access that the real Bull 

724
00:37:24,560 --> 00:37:28,040
run isn't really like, isn't 
really here. 

725
00:37:28,040 --> 00:37:30,800
This is more like a sideways 
type, yeah. 

726
00:37:30,840 --> 00:37:34,680
Bull crab, we're in like a light
bulb crab market or something. 

727
00:37:35,000 --> 00:37:39,200
Yeah, I mean, and, and I would 
agree with that, but also just 

728
00:37:39,200 --> 00:37:41,360
looking back, I mean, let's just
think about things logically. 

729
00:37:41,360 --> 00:37:45,640
So if we had the multiple that 
we had back in, in the initial 

730
00:37:45,640 --> 00:37:49,680
peak or let's just use 2013. 
So, so for that one, it say it 

731
00:37:49,680 --> 00:37:51,560
went let's just say 15 times, 
right. 

732
00:37:52,080 --> 00:37:57,320
So if the trend line right now, 
I believe let me just double 

733
00:37:57,320 --> 00:37:59,360
check where we are. 
So if the trend line right now 

734
00:37:59,840 --> 00:38:06,920
is around 100, it's a bit over 
100K or or yeah, it's around 100

735
00:38:06,920 --> 00:38:11,000
Ki believe so that would. 
Be the price at recording is 

736
00:38:11,160 --> 00:38:14,160
116, so you know slight slightly
above. 

737
00:38:15,000 --> 00:38:17,200
Exactly. 
Yeah, we're above the trend 

738
00:38:17,200 --> 00:38:19,040
line. 
So, but the trend line say it's 

739
00:38:19,040 --> 00:38:21,880
just as a simple math, say it's 
at 100 roughly speaking right 

740
00:38:21,880 --> 00:38:24,040
now the trend line. 
So that's kind of like fair 

741
00:38:24,040 --> 00:38:25,280
value you could argue or 
whatever. 

742
00:38:25,840 --> 00:38:29,640
If we had the same blow off peak
we had at the first one, that 

743
00:38:29,640 --> 00:38:32,680
means Bitcoin would get to 2.6 
million this year. 

744
00:38:33,240 --> 00:38:37,800
Do you understand or or sorry 
the 2013 let's use I said 2013. 

745
00:38:38,160 --> 00:38:42,120
So that peak we had that second 
peak got to 16 times the trend 

746
00:38:42,120 --> 00:38:44,120
line. 
So that would be 1.6 million. 

747
00:38:44,480 --> 00:38:48,400
So for us to have an equivalent 
peak as far as over like 

748
00:38:49,600 --> 00:38:53,160
exuberance or, or parabolic top 
or, you know, however you want 

749
00:38:53,160 --> 00:38:56,560
to find it, euphoria, we'd have 
to get to 1.6 million for us to 

750
00:38:56,600 --> 00:39:01,960
equal what we did last or 2017. 
We'd have to get to say roughly 

751
00:39:01,960 --> 00:39:05,760
800,000. 
And then, you know, I I can't 

752
00:39:05,760 --> 00:39:10,200
see exactly, but let's say 4 or 
500 for last cycles peak. 

753
00:39:11,640 --> 00:39:13,880
So that that kind of puts things
in perspective, right? 

754
00:39:13,880 --> 00:39:16,880
Like these, these are huge peaks
that we saw in the past, like we

755
00:39:16,880 --> 00:39:19,040
went way above trend line, 
right? 

756
00:39:19,240 --> 00:39:23,000
So we don't have to go insane 
about trend line to still have 

757
00:39:23,000 --> 00:39:25,840
great returns. 
But I mean, for this pattern to 

758
00:39:25,840 --> 00:39:30,920
break, we would have to probably
go well over 500,000 this year, 

759
00:39:31,080 --> 00:39:32,840
right? 
So it could happen. 

760
00:39:32,840 --> 00:39:35,320
I mean, everything's possible. 
I just the patterns aren't 

761
00:39:35,320 --> 00:39:37,720
showing up. 
But that is, yeah. 

762
00:39:37,720 --> 00:39:38,880
I don't know what your thoughts 
are, but. 

763
00:39:39,000 --> 00:39:45,920
Well, yeah, this is exactly 
where kind of my conceptual 

764
00:39:46,000 --> 00:39:49,280
understanding of Bitcoin clashes
with the math, right. 

765
00:39:49,280 --> 00:39:54,600
So I would say that the more 
people understand why Bitcoin 

766
00:39:54,600 --> 00:39:57,920
exists, why they should have 
Bitcoin, why they should hold it

767
00:39:57,920 --> 00:40:01,680
over any other financial asset 
as Bitcoin is superior. 

768
00:40:03,200 --> 00:40:05,280
You know I would. 
I would, logically. 

769
00:40:05,280 --> 00:40:09,640
Conclude. 
That at some point there will be

770
00:40:09,640 --> 00:40:14,240
this short squeeze or or or like
supply shock, right? 

771
00:40:14,240 --> 00:40:19,200
Just again, just because I think
the demand will grow and the 

772
00:40:19,200 --> 00:40:25,080
supply will slowly dry up 
because, yeah, I mean, I don't 

773
00:40:25,080 --> 00:40:27,680
know about you, but I always say
like, sell for what? 

774
00:40:27,680 --> 00:40:29,760
Like what, what should I sell it
for, right. 

775
00:40:29,760 --> 00:40:34,600
So I, I, I do understand that 
there are a lot of like old Ogs 

776
00:40:34,600 --> 00:40:36,520
that have thousands of coins, 
right? 

777
00:40:36,520 --> 00:40:39,280
And they would be selling. 
I mean, yes, I also agree to 

778
00:40:39,280 --> 00:40:41,960
that. 
But you know, if not this year, 

779
00:40:41,960 --> 00:40:44,680
then maybe maybe in 20-30 or 
something, right? 

780
00:40:44,680 --> 00:40:48,280
Like at at some point 
conceptually, I do think there's

781
00:40:48,320 --> 00:40:51,040
there's going to be this, this 
clash, right? 

782
00:40:51,560 --> 00:40:55,760
But then on the other hand, 
looking at this, yeah, there's 

783
00:40:55,760 --> 00:40:58,120
also kind of looks like a trend,
right? 

784
00:40:58,120 --> 00:41:02,440
Like my only counter argument to
some degree here would be, you 

785
00:41:02,440 --> 00:41:04,240
know, this is only the 4th 
cycle. 

786
00:41:04,840 --> 00:41:06,440
You know what? 
I'm which is a fair which is a 

787
00:41:06,440 --> 00:41:07,640
fair argument. 
I mean, I would. 

788
00:41:07,760 --> 00:41:09,280
Say my only argument. 
Yeah. 

789
00:41:09,400 --> 00:41:13,000
And it, and again, like it's not
like it would be completely 

790
00:41:13,000 --> 00:41:14,640
impossible for this pattern to 
break. 

791
00:41:14,680 --> 00:41:16,760
I mean, like you said, it's only
so many cycles. 

792
00:41:17,680 --> 00:41:21,480
So that's completely fair and of
course I would welcome that. 

793
00:41:21,480 --> 00:41:24,200
I mean, if it, but I I do 
believe there'll be an element 

794
00:41:24,200 --> 00:41:27,520
of the US dollar having to lose 
its stability for that to occur.

795
00:41:29,840 --> 00:41:31,640
But yeah, I mean, it's, it's an 
interesting conversation. 

796
00:41:31,640 --> 00:41:35,480
I mean, couple, couple things. 
I do agree with you that even 

797
00:41:35,840 --> 00:41:38,880
even though a lot of people are 
starting to understand that, you

798
00:41:38,880 --> 00:41:41,000
know, as far as all the options 
out there, Bitcoin, you know, 

799
00:41:41,240 --> 00:41:43,520
what else are you going to hold 
like you once you start really 

800
00:41:43,520 --> 00:41:46,400
understanding Bitcoin? 
The thing I would say though is 

801
00:41:46,960 --> 00:41:50,200
as the price goes up, for 
everyone that does sell, you do 

802
00:41:50,200 --> 00:41:52,800
need more capital coming in, 
right? 

803
00:41:52,800 --> 00:41:55,280
You do need a higher amount of 
capital coming in. 

804
00:41:55,280 --> 00:41:58,480
So that's why I celebrate when 
large amounts of Bitcoin are 

805
00:41:58,480 --> 00:42:03,080
sold at lower prices, because I 
would rather have a ton of money

806
00:42:03,120 --> 00:42:06,840
selling at 100,000 versus the 
same Bitcoin selling at a 

807
00:42:06,840 --> 00:42:11,600
million because that so people 
understand like when, when they,

808
00:42:11,600 --> 00:42:13,880
when you have these 
announcements, oh, whatever some

809
00:42:13,880 --> 00:42:17,160
whale is, is cashing out 10,000 
Bitcoin or whatever, that's 

810
00:42:17,160 --> 00:42:19,000
awesome. 
That's great because we know 

811
00:42:19,000 --> 00:42:22,480
bitcoins going higher and if 
they hold, if that, if that 

812
00:42:22,480 --> 00:42:26,880
whale holds, you know, to a 
million, it now takes 10 times 

813
00:42:26,880 --> 00:42:30,400
more capital to get that person 
out of the market because they 

814
00:42:30,400 --> 00:42:33,440
will sell eventually. 
I mean, yes, there are going to 

815
00:42:33,440 --> 00:42:35,640
be vehicles to borrow against 
your Bitcoin. 

816
00:42:35,640 --> 00:42:39,000
I think that will be an another 
X Factor in the future. 

817
00:42:39,000 --> 00:42:42,520
And, and we're not really there 
yet, but we're, you know, it's, 

818
00:42:42,600 --> 00:42:44,120
it's trending in that direction,
of course. 

819
00:42:44,840 --> 00:42:47,800
But I, I would also say like, 
even as scarce as Bitcoin is, 

820
00:42:47,800 --> 00:42:50,880
time is scarcer time is, I call 
it unknown scarcity. 

821
00:42:50,880 --> 00:42:53,720
So Bitcoins known scarcity, time
is unknown scarcity. 

822
00:42:54,000 --> 00:42:56,040
No one knows how much time they 
have left in this reality. 

823
00:42:56,040 --> 00:42:59,600
So because of that, I actually 
think time is more valuable than

824
00:42:59,600 --> 00:43:02,480
Bitcoin. 
And so personally, I think that 

825
00:43:02,480 --> 00:43:05,640
if someone, you know, got in 
super early to Bitcoin, it's 

826
00:43:05,640 --> 00:43:08,120
actually a little bit 
irresponsible in a lot of ways 

827
00:43:08,400 --> 00:43:10,000
to hold all your Bitcoin 
forever. 

828
00:43:10,000 --> 00:43:12,280
And the reason why I would say 
that is because you don't know 

829
00:43:12,280 --> 00:43:14,960
how much time you have. 
And so it doesn't, it doesn't 

830
00:43:14,960 --> 00:43:17,120
have to be a binary thing where 
you sell all your Bitcoin or you

831
00:43:17,120 --> 00:43:19,480
sell none of your Bitcoin. 
But I do think, you know, for 

832
00:43:19,480 --> 00:43:22,920
people that got in super early, 
it starts to become just a 

833
00:43:23,080 --> 00:43:25,720
mathematical equation where you 
say, look, this is going to 

834
00:43:25,720 --> 00:43:29,040
change my life. 
I could go on life changing or 

835
00:43:30,120 --> 00:43:32,560
memories I'll have forever with 
my family, you know, these 

836
00:43:32,560 --> 00:43:35,440
moments that are more valuable 
than any any asset. 

837
00:43:35,680 --> 00:43:39,440
So to be able to change your 
life in a very meaningful way 

838
00:43:39,640 --> 00:43:42,960
and to be able to maximize the 
time we have with the people we 

839
00:43:42,960 --> 00:43:45,880
love, those are great use cases.
It's not like you're going to go

840
00:43:45,880 --> 00:43:48,160
buy some stock. 
I I think that's kind of silly. 

841
00:43:48,400 --> 00:43:51,360
But if, but if you are going to 
cash out a percentage of 

842
00:43:51,360 --> 00:43:52,920
Bitcoin, I also think it's silly
to sell everything. 

843
00:43:52,920 --> 00:43:54,880
But that's just my opinion. 
I'm not giving any financial 

844
00:43:54,880 --> 00:43:57,960
advice, but you know, just to 
sell some of it at some point 

845
00:43:57,960 --> 00:44:00,320
for the people that got in 
early, it just makes sense. 

846
00:44:00,320 --> 00:44:04,400
I mean, you can do stuff that in
your life with the people you 

847
00:44:04,400 --> 00:44:06,800
love, like I already said, that 
you'll have forever. 

848
00:44:06,800 --> 00:44:10,880
And, and to me, that's, that's 
very, yeah, it's just that 

849
00:44:10,880 --> 00:44:13,720
that's how I look at it anyways.
But I totally understand the 

850
00:44:13,720 --> 00:44:15,480
ethos of just hold it all 
forever, right? 

851
00:44:15,480 --> 00:44:18,480
But yeah, I, I just think it 
heavily. 

852
00:44:18,480 --> 00:44:20,160
People will sell, people hit 
targets. 

853
00:44:20,200 --> 00:44:22,480
And, and that's why I don't 
think Bitcoin, you know, the 

854
00:44:22,480 --> 00:44:23,960
scarcity thing is a bit 
overblown. 

855
00:44:24,760 --> 00:44:25,880
Some people might not like to 
hear that. 

856
00:44:25,880 --> 00:44:29,160
It's just my view is because at 
a certain price, if Bitcoin was 

857
00:44:29,160 --> 00:44:31,720
$100 million tomorrow, 
everyone's selling. 

858
00:44:32,160 --> 00:44:33,840
I mean, your life is completely 
changed. 

859
00:44:33,840 --> 00:44:35,960
Like you like, I mean, most 
people are going to sell 

860
00:44:35,960 --> 00:44:38,560
something like if it's a million
tomorrow, most people are going 

861
00:44:38,560 --> 00:44:41,560
to sell something. 
So at a certain price, Ogs and 

862
00:44:41,560 --> 00:44:44,320
people that got in will, will 
sell like people hit targets, 

863
00:44:44,360 --> 00:44:46,520
you know, whatever. 
And also emergencies happen in 

864
00:44:46,520 --> 00:44:49,160
life, bills come, whatever. 
Like you can't be. 

865
00:44:49,400 --> 00:44:51,800
So anyways, that's a. 
That's a whole other long 

866
00:44:51,800 --> 00:44:55,920
conversation. 
I mean, I, I agree with that and

867
00:44:55,920 --> 00:44:58,360
I also think that that is what 
people are doing. 

868
00:44:58,640 --> 00:45:02,280
Maybe while we're talking, I 
came up with another argument 

869
00:45:02,280 --> 00:45:06,920
and I wonder, I wonder what you 
think of that because on the, on

870
00:45:06,920 --> 00:45:11,920
the flip side, I still think we 
are very early like, I don't 

871
00:45:11,920 --> 00:45:15,000
know about you, but I, I, I 
don't believe there's 100 

872
00:45:15,000 --> 00:45:16,600
million Bitcoin holders in the 
US. 

873
00:45:16,600 --> 00:45:18,720
Like whenever everyone talks 
about that, right? 

874
00:45:18,720 --> 00:45:21,800
Like I, I. 
No, no, it's not. 

875
00:45:21,800 --> 00:45:25,320
Not with the mean amount, no. 
And and not Maybe you have an, 

876
00:45:25,400 --> 00:45:28,320
maybe you have an exchange with 
like dusted or something or 

877
00:45:28,320 --> 00:45:29,120
whatever they own. 
Yeah. 

878
00:45:29,120 --> 00:45:32,720
But like the amount that you 
that would be enough for you to 

879
00:45:32,720 --> 00:45:37,840
sell 20% when it hits like 250K 
or something, right, Right. 

880
00:45:37,840 --> 00:45:40,600
So there is a lot of people from
back in the day that have 

881
00:45:41,320 --> 00:45:46,480
thousands of coins, right. 
And so those will definitely 

882
00:45:47,160 --> 00:45:49,840
cash in to some degree to to buy
time. 

883
00:45:49,840 --> 00:45:54,440
I fully agree with that. 
So if you go with the idea that 

884
00:45:55,440 --> 00:46:00,280
I don't know, maybe in the 
entire world, right, even if 

885
00:46:00,280 --> 00:46:03,240
there's 50 million people that 
hold a significant amount of 

886
00:46:03,240 --> 00:46:06,040
Bitcoin that they would sell a 
percentage of at a certain 

887
00:46:06,040 --> 00:46:09,360
point, that is still very small 
in adoption, right? 

888
00:46:10,960 --> 00:46:14,080
I cannot do the calculation 
quickly, but so I'm thinking 

889
00:46:14,080 --> 00:46:16,480
about this, right. 
So what we're seeing here, wait,

890
00:46:16,480 --> 00:46:21,760
I'll show this first is OK, So 
we are growing, but the growth 

891
00:46:21,760 --> 00:46:25,600
is slowing to a degree, right? 
And you can say, OK, that is 

892
00:46:25,600 --> 00:46:29,240
because you need more money to 
actually move the market cap, 

893
00:46:29,240 --> 00:46:31,440
right? 
But at the same time, we're also

894
00:46:31,440 --> 00:46:33,160
seeing that these hollow waves, 
right? 

895
00:46:33,160 --> 00:46:37,920
So the amount of time that that 
coins don't move is also slowly.

896
00:46:37,920 --> 00:46:39,320
Creeping up. 
Right. 

897
00:46:39,320 --> 00:46:45,840
So I think three years is mid 
50s percent, Yeah, I think 

898
00:46:45,840 --> 00:46:48,840
between 55 and 60%, which I 
think is a lot, right, three 

899
00:46:48,840 --> 00:46:50,680
years, imagine that. 
So all the one. 

900
00:46:50,680 --> 00:46:52,880
Year is really high, but yeah. 
Yeah, OK. 

901
00:46:52,880 --> 00:46:55,280
But but but I'm saying three 
years because then you went 

902
00:46:55,280 --> 00:46:58,680
through this, this, this, this, 
this bear market, right. 

903
00:46:58,680 --> 00:47:01,240
It went a lot down, now a lot 
up. 

904
00:47:01,840 --> 00:47:05,080
I mean, those are the people 
like you and me that understand 

905
00:47:05,080 --> 00:47:07,560
what this is, right? 
And that are also thinking 

906
00:47:07,560 --> 00:47:10,840
about, OK, but sell for what? 
Like what if I well, if I know 

907
00:47:10,840 --> 00:47:15,640
this model, if I know the power 
law model, this is up forever, 

908
00:47:15,960 --> 00:47:21,160
right? 
So OK, so in this one we see 

909
00:47:21,160 --> 00:47:24,120
growth, but it's slowing down. 
We see the whole of waves going 

910
00:47:24,120 --> 00:47:25,800
up. 
And then I'm thinking because 

911
00:47:25,800 --> 00:47:27,840
you mentioned network, I had to 
think about, you know a lot of 

912
00:47:27,840 --> 00:47:35,320
people or like Chris Kuiper or 
you're in Timmer like these 

913
00:47:35,320 --> 00:47:43,000
fidelity guys that talk about S 
curve adoption, which is usually

914
00:47:43,000 --> 00:47:45,880
seen in. 
Social. 

915
00:47:45,960 --> 00:47:48,840
Networks, yeah, yes. 
And so networks, technological 

916
00:47:48,840 --> 00:47:52,080
products, etcetera, right. 
We have this point, which is the

917
00:47:52,080 --> 00:47:57,960
chasm, you know, so we so I'm 
thinking I just, I just came up 

918
00:47:57,960 --> 00:48:00,560
with the argument, but I wonder 
what you think is that when you 

919
00:48:00,560 --> 00:48:04,600
look at this, maybe we are 
around here because this this is

920
00:48:04,600 --> 00:48:08,120
a battle, right? 
Like crossing the chasm from 

921
00:48:09,680 --> 00:48:13,880
early adopters to early, early 
majority is a battle like in a 

922
00:48:13,880 --> 00:48:19,240
lot of technologies or or social
platforms or whatever like this 

923
00:48:19,240 --> 00:48:21,680
is this is where a lot of 
products die basically because 

924
00:48:21,680 --> 00:48:26,040
they cannot make make that jump.
And so if we are somewhere 

925
00:48:26,040 --> 00:48:29,320
around here. 
Sorry where you're pointing. 

926
00:48:29,320 --> 00:48:30,520
I'm just trying to see where 
you're pointing. 

927
00:48:30,520 --> 00:48:32,320
On the Oh, sorry. 
So if we're somewhere around 

928
00:48:32,320 --> 00:48:35,120
like before, yeah, you don't see
my cursor, but like somewhere 

929
00:48:35,120 --> 00:48:38,320
before the chasm basically 
that's. 

930
00:48:38,640 --> 00:48:40,160
I think we're after the. 
Point. 

931
00:48:40,760 --> 00:48:42,840
I think we're actually a past 
the yeah, I think we are. 

932
00:48:43,200 --> 00:48:44,720
I think this. 
Yeah, I don't. 

933
00:48:45,080 --> 00:48:48,280
I, I think, I think just past it
or, or you could say going 

934
00:48:48,280 --> 00:48:50,760
through it, you could say, or 
before it, I mean, you could 

935
00:48:50,760 --> 00:48:52,280
argue before it. 
Of course, I'm not saying I'm 

936
00:48:52,280 --> 00:48:53,720
right. 
I'm, I'm saying you could make 

937
00:48:53,720 --> 00:48:56,400
an argument before, after, 
during the chasm, for sure. 

938
00:48:56,480 --> 00:48:58,320
I think we're around that, 
around that point, though. 

939
00:48:58,320 --> 00:49:01,320
I agree with you. 
That's why I'm saying maybe that

940
00:49:01,320 --> 00:49:04,400
is why it is slowing that. 
That would be my point in this 

941
00:49:04,400 --> 00:49:06,320
argument that I just came up 
with this. 

942
00:49:06,520 --> 00:49:11,680
This is a chaos as this is a a 
battle type period in a case 

943
00:49:12,080 --> 00:49:17,600
fighting for yeah, basically the
life of this technology in a 

944
00:49:17,600 --> 00:49:19,160
sense, as in any technology, 
right. 

945
00:49:19,160 --> 00:49:20,800
So this is a universal model. 
It's. 

946
00:49:20,800 --> 00:49:23,240
Like, yeah, it's like the the 
make it or break it moment. 

947
00:49:23,240 --> 00:49:27,320
I mean, it's it's entirely 
possible. 

948
00:49:27,320 --> 00:49:32,000
I mean, I would say the the 
fight now you could define in 

949
00:49:32,000 --> 00:49:34,760
different ways, but this cycle 
what I've kind of personally, 

950
00:49:34,760 --> 00:49:38,120
the way I look at the cycle to 
summarize in a lot of ways is 

951
00:49:38,720 --> 00:49:40,880
there's a lot of people with a 
ton of conviction in Bitcoin. 

952
00:49:40,880 --> 00:49:44,240
There really are at this point. 
I think we've hit a level, I 

953
00:49:44,240 --> 00:49:46,440
mean, just because of the amount
of institutions, a micro 

954
00:49:46,440 --> 00:49:50,080
strategy, obviously seeing a 
company acquire, you know, 

955
00:49:50,080 --> 00:49:53,360
600,000 plus Bitcoin. 
I mean that that's the kind of 

956
00:49:53,360 --> 00:49:57,000
stuff that the traditional kind 
of minded people just you can't 

957
00:49:57,000 --> 00:49:58,720
ignore that. 
Like you have these these 

958
00:49:58,720 --> 00:50:02,560
significant companies with high 
market caps that are starting to

959
00:50:02,560 --> 00:50:04,680
acquire a lot of Bitcoin. 
So and there's a lot of smaller 

960
00:50:04,680 --> 00:50:06,000
ones for sure, but they're 
growing. 

961
00:50:06,000 --> 00:50:08,280
They're they're they're the 
market caps are growing as they 

962
00:50:08,280 --> 00:50:10,720
adopt Bitcoin. 
So, so they're becoming bigger 

963
00:50:10,720 --> 00:50:12,160
and bigger players in the stock 
market. 

964
00:50:12,160 --> 00:50:15,400
But I mean, there's, there's 
been enough voices, you know, 

965
00:50:15,560 --> 00:50:17,640
Michael Saylor on, on a 
mainstream. 

966
00:50:17,640 --> 00:50:20,760
So like, and, and the president,
president stuff and the, you 

967
00:50:20,760 --> 00:50:24,400
know, and, and all this stuff 
about stockpiles and, you know, 

968
00:50:24,400 --> 00:50:26,960
different countries adopting. 
There's kind of the beginning 

969
00:50:26,960 --> 00:50:29,560
stages of that. 
But so because of that, I would 

970
00:50:29,560 --> 00:50:34,920
say, you know, we have we have a
lot of big players that are 

971
00:50:34,920 --> 00:50:39,440
soaking up the old OG sellers. 
So as we've gone up the cycle, 

972
00:50:39,440 --> 00:50:42,040
we've kind of stair stepped up. 
We spent long correction 

973
00:50:42,040 --> 00:50:43,760
periods. 
It's actually been more about 

974
00:50:43,760 --> 00:50:46,600
correcting in time, so to speak,
where, you know, you're just 

975
00:50:46,600 --> 00:50:49,360
kind of we've been sideways to 
down for for months and and 

976
00:50:49,360 --> 00:50:50,680
people get kind of bored or 
whatever. 

977
00:50:50,680 --> 00:50:52,720
Some people so they're not 
really in pain. 

978
00:50:52,720 --> 00:50:55,080
It's not like all we're down 
Bitcoins down 50% like it might 

979
00:50:55,080 --> 00:50:59,760
have been back in whatever 2017 
run up or bitcoins down 40% 

980
00:50:59,760 --> 00:51:02,600
overnight and then it bounces 
back and then it crashes a few 

981
00:51:02,600 --> 00:51:04,200
months or a week later, 
whatever. 

982
00:51:04,760 --> 00:51:07,520
Now it's more about these longer
consolidation periods where 

983
00:51:07,520 --> 00:51:11,360
essentially Bitcoins like, OK, 
at this period there's a certain

984
00:51:11,360 --> 00:51:14,160
amount of O GS that got in so 
early that they're looking to 

985
00:51:14,160 --> 00:51:16,440
take some profits off the table.
They're not selling all their 

986
00:51:16,440 --> 00:51:18,400
Bitcoin. 
I don't think all these O GS are

987
00:51:18,400 --> 00:51:21,520
just cashing out everything, but
I think there's so much capital 

988
00:51:21,520 --> 00:51:24,000
they have in Bitcoin that 
they're naturally selling a 

989
00:51:24,000 --> 00:51:26,200
percentage at different price 
levels. 

990
00:51:26,520 --> 00:51:29,640
And as they sell and release 
that, I mean, the good thing 

991
00:51:29,640 --> 00:51:33,080
what we're seeing is we're 
seeing enough big companies and,

992
00:51:33,080 --> 00:51:35,800
and high net worth individuals 
and also just conviction from 

993
00:51:35,800 --> 00:51:39,560
retail that's, that's soaking up
that, that selling cell 

994
00:51:39,560 --> 00:51:41,040
pressure. 
Now it's a bit of a battle. 

995
00:51:41,040 --> 00:51:42,600
It takes months, we kind of go 
sideways. 

996
00:51:42,760 --> 00:51:45,560
But ultimately we've seen so far
the cycle, we've eventually 

997
00:51:45,960 --> 00:51:49,520
stepped up to the next level. 
And so every and so it's very 

998
00:51:49,520 --> 00:51:51,200
healthy. 
I mean, this to me, this is the 

999
00:51:51,200 --> 00:51:54,040
healthiest bull run by far. 
I mean, there's a lot of 

1000
00:51:54,040 --> 00:51:56,720
positive things I could say. 
I'm, I'm definitely not a a bear

1001
00:51:56,720 --> 00:51:58,880
by any means. 
I mean, if I come across as a 

1002
00:51:58,880 --> 00:52:01,200
mathematical bear, somehow, I 
don't want that to be the case, 

1003
00:52:01,200 --> 00:52:02,760
but whatever it's people are 
going to perceive you how 

1004
00:52:02,760 --> 00:52:05,320
they're going to perceive you. 
I'm presenting the data, but I'm

1005
00:52:05,320 --> 00:52:08,040
a Super Bowl on Bitcoin and, and
I mean, how can you not be at 

1006
00:52:08,040 --> 00:52:11,400
this point, right? 
So for me, this, this cycle has 

1007
00:52:11,400 --> 00:52:14,920
been super healthy. 
And really I mean I love to see 

1008
00:52:14,920 --> 00:52:18,280
this consolidation at different 
price levels for months because 

1009
00:52:18,280 --> 00:52:21,040
we're building strong foundation
and we're and I don't think 

1010
00:52:21,040 --> 00:52:23,600
we're going to see the 80% drop 
we've seen in a lot of the 

1011
00:52:23,600 --> 00:52:25,840
previous cycles. 
I'm actually thinking probably 

1012
00:52:25,840 --> 00:52:29,880
more in the, in the probably 
50%, fifty, 60% range is 

1013
00:52:29,880 --> 00:52:34,520
probably, it's hard to say, but 
like I could see that just 

1014
00:52:34,520 --> 00:52:37,680
because we have built support 
all the way along this bull 

1015
00:52:37,680 --> 00:52:40,320
market so far and we're still 
going to have the probably the 

1016
00:52:40,320 --> 00:52:42,800
blow off top period. 
Like I, I don't see us 

1017
00:52:43,080 --> 00:52:45,480
consolidating for months and 
then all of a sudden we just 

1018
00:52:45,480 --> 00:52:49,040
completely crash 80%. 
Like that's probably not what's 

1019
00:52:49,040 --> 00:52:51,320
going to happen. 
Although there are different 

1020
00:52:51,320 --> 00:52:53,280
types of peaks. 
You can have a parabolic blow 

1021
00:52:53,280 --> 00:52:56,400
off peak where where you really 
steep up and steep down. 

1022
00:52:56,600 --> 00:52:58,920
That's what we saw in 2013 and 
2017. 

1023
00:52:59,480 --> 00:53:03,080
Now in 2021, we did have a bit 
of more of a Wyckoff gifts 

1024
00:53:03,080 --> 00:53:05,680
distribution top, it's called 
where there's kind of some fake 

1025
00:53:05,680 --> 00:53:08,560
outs and we actually traded for 
like, I think it was two months 

1026
00:53:08,560 --> 00:53:11,840
or so relatively around the peak
and, and a lot of people thought

1027
00:53:11,840 --> 00:53:13,840
we were going higher and then we
eventually did collapse. 

1028
00:53:13,840 --> 00:53:20,520
So, but, but yeah, I mean, it's 
Simply put this cycle. 

1029
00:53:20,520 --> 00:53:25,640
I mean, I, I do think Bitcoin 
has reached a point where it's, 

1030
00:53:25,680 --> 00:53:29,800
it's, I mean, whether it's just 
the beginning of the chasm or we

1031
00:53:29,800 --> 00:53:35,920
just passed it, either way, it's
become very accepted. 

1032
00:53:36,080 --> 00:53:38,680
You know, it, there's nothing. 
I mean, what's the, what's the 

1033
00:53:38,680 --> 00:53:41,000
major FUD? 
We've heard the cycle. 

1034
00:53:41,000 --> 00:53:44,040
I mean, every cycle there's FUD,
but what's the like really crazy

1035
00:53:44,040 --> 00:53:45,280
FUD? 
You've heard the cycle about 

1036
00:53:45,280 --> 00:53:46,800
Bitcoin. 
Like why is Bitcoin going to go 

1037
00:53:46,800 --> 00:53:48,800
to 0? 
Like I think there's I think 

1038
00:53:48,880 --> 00:53:51,320
there's OK, OK, that's a fair 
one. 

1039
00:53:51,560 --> 00:53:54,400
That that's, that is. 
But but I think that's probably,

1040
00:53:54,520 --> 00:53:56,360
yeah, I guess, you know, that's 
something. 

1041
00:53:56,600 --> 00:53:58,920
That was like, that's the 
biggest and the rest is all 

1042
00:53:58,920 --> 00:54:01,760
recycled 27. 
Yeah, I think that's the only 

1043
00:54:01,760 --> 00:54:04,560
one to me that's the only one 
that has. 

1044
00:54:04,640 --> 00:54:06,800
I mean, I'm not expert quality, 
so I can't really speak to that.

1045
00:54:06,800 --> 00:54:10,160
But but at least as a narrative,
I think that's the only one that

1046
00:54:10,160 --> 00:54:12,920
can kind of rival where Bitcoins
currently at as far as its 

1047
00:54:12,920 --> 00:54:15,160
adoption market cap. 
It would take something 

1048
00:54:15,160 --> 00:54:19,120
catastrophic, something that you
know and so, yeah, we don't need

1049
00:54:19,120 --> 00:54:21,000
to talk about that. 
But, and I think that's a very 

1050
00:54:21,000 --> 00:54:23,920
low probability and other people
can speak to that better. 

1051
00:54:24,560 --> 00:54:28,120
But besides that, I really don't
see any like every other cycle, 

1052
00:54:28,120 --> 00:54:30,120
there was kind of like this 
discount that Bitcoin could go 

1053
00:54:30,120 --> 00:54:32,760
to 0 potentially. 
But at this point, I think it's 

1054
00:54:32,800 --> 00:54:34,360
really hard to make that 
argument. 

1055
00:54:34,360 --> 00:54:37,760
I really do. 
People can try, but I mean, you 

1056
00:54:37,760 --> 00:54:40,680
just, there's, it's just not, 
you're going to have to use a 

1057
00:54:40,680 --> 00:54:43,000
lot of logical fallacies. 
I, I don't see a really an 

1058
00:54:43,000 --> 00:54:46,760
argument for it at this point. 
So because of that during the 

1059
00:54:46,760 --> 00:54:49,120
bear markets, I mean there's 
that there's not that discount 

1060
00:54:49,120 --> 00:54:52,560
of Bitcoin could go to 0. 
And so just like we're seeing 

1061
00:54:52,560 --> 00:54:54,360
the diminishing returns of the 
peak, we're also seeing 

1062
00:54:54,360 --> 00:54:57,920
diminishing returns to a degree 
in, in the pull backs during the

1063
00:54:57,920 --> 00:54:59,960
bear market. 
And I think this cycle will see 

1064
00:54:59,960 --> 00:55:01,760
an even bigger one. 
That's just my my theory 

1065
00:55:01,760 --> 00:55:03,000
anyways, but. 
Yeah. 

1066
00:55:03,880 --> 00:55:07,280
So this is so we, we went 
through your steps right And 

1067
00:55:07,280 --> 00:55:10,240
this is the end result 
basically. 

1068
00:55:10,560 --> 00:55:13,520
This is the end result. 
There's a couple more steps that

1069
00:55:13,520 --> 00:55:15,720
I, I, we didn't include in 
slides here, but I can quickly 

1070
00:55:15,720 --> 00:55:17,560
try to explain simply and talk 
through them. 

1071
00:55:17,920 --> 00:55:22,440
So that last chart we, we saw 
where you can see kind of each 

1072
00:55:22,440 --> 00:55:25,280
cycle the, the ratios or the 
multiples versus the trend line 

1073
00:55:25,480 --> 00:55:28,040
are going down. 
What you can actually do is 

1074
00:55:28,040 --> 00:55:31,640
create something that's called a
stretched exponential decay. 

1075
00:55:32,000 --> 00:55:34,280
So I, I looked at a lot of 
different ways to model the 

1076
00:55:34,280 --> 00:55:37,080
peaks and stretched exponential 
decay. 

1077
00:55:37,080 --> 00:55:41,160
It's called is the actually the,
it's, it's just the most 

1078
00:55:41,160 --> 00:55:43,800
accurate way to model it. 
I mean, if someone could finds a

1079
00:55:43,800 --> 00:55:45,320
better way, that's, that's 
awesome. 

1080
00:55:45,320 --> 00:55:47,400
I'd love to see it. 
I've, I've really spent a crazy 

1081
00:55:47,400 --> 00:55:49,360
amount of time looking into all 
the different ways you can model

1082
00:55:49,360 --> 00:55:51,680
it. 
Actually, the way I do it is 

1083
00:55:51,680 --> 00:55:54,840
I'm, I actually model it with an
exponential decay and a 

1084
00:55:54,840 --> 00:55:58,760
stretched exponential decay. 
So I do both during the code and

1085
00:55:58,760 --> 00:56:02,560
then what it does is it actually
assesses which is a better fit. 

1086
00:56:02,640 --> 00:56:06,040
So I'm not actually even 
attached to one of the two. 

1087
00:56:06,360 --> 00:56:08,520
I want to use whichever is best 
out of the two. 

1088
00:56:09,560 --> 00:56:13,440
They're kind of cousins. 
You could say exponential decay,

1089
00:56:13,440 --> 00:56:17,120
to put her very simply, is 
essentially, you know, it's it's

1090
00:56:17,120 --> 00:56:21,720
consistent decay rate. 
So every every X amount of time.

1091
00:56:21,720 --> 00:56:25,200
So every say year as a just, or 
say every four years, whatever, 

1092
00:56:25,760 --> 00:56:28,360
50% reduction in the peaks that 
would be exponential. 

1093
00:56:28,360 --> 00:56:31,200
So it's consistently 50%. 
Now the thing about something 

1094
00:56:31,200 --> 00:56:35,160
going down 50% is eventually it 
flattens out, right? 

1095
00:56:35,160 --> 00:56:37,760
Just the way that pattern works.
You know, people also call it 

1096
00:56:37,760 --> 00:56:40,440
like a half life, but 
essentially exponential decay 

1097
00:56:40,440 --> 00:56:42,760
actually models bitcoins peaks 
fairly well. 

1098
00:56:43,120 --> 00:56:45,360
And there are other analysts 
that have done work on this like

1099
00:56:45,360 --> 00:56:47,120
Smithson. 
Smithson did some phenomenal 

1100
00:56:47,120 --> 00:56:48,520
work. 
He was the first person I, I 

1101
00:56:48,520 --> 00:56:51,440
came across that was doing 
exponential decay fitting of the

1102
00:56:51,440 --> 00:56:52,720
peaks. 
And it works well. 

1103
00:56:53,040 --> 00:56:55,920
It could be the actual best way 
to model it, but I did find 

1104
00:56:55,920 --> 00:56:57,560
stretch exponential decay is 
better. 

1105
00:56:58,320 --> 00:57:02,400
Just just when you, when you 
look at something called BIC, 

1106
00:57:02,800 --> 00:57:06,200
which is a way of assessing 
complexity, so the keep it 

1107
00:57:06,200 --> 00:57:09,280
simple, the stretch exponential 
decay has one more variable, but

1108
00:57:09,360 --> 00:57:11,920
even factoring in that 
complexity, it's still a better 

1109
00:57:11,920 --> 00:57:14,680
fit, it's still a better model. 
So essentially we take that 

1110
00:57:14,680 --> 00:57:18,640
stretch exponential decay fit. 
And then what I did here is I 

1111
00:57:18,640 --> 00:57:22,120
did, I actually take the top 1% 
of the data. 

1112
00:57:22,520 --> 00:57:28,120
So it's 1300 hours of data, 
right, Which I think equates to 

1113
00:57:28,120 --> 00:57:30,320
how many days is that because 
you were asking me before the 

1114
00:57:30,320 --> 00:57:38,240
top 1%. 
So oh, I don't have my roughly. 

1115
00:57:38,440 --> 00:57:40,880
I can't my how? 
Many hours do you have? 

1116
00:57:40,960 --> 00:57:44,400
101,300 hours, Yeah, I can't 
click on my computer right now. 

1117
00:57:44,760 --> 00:57:51,080
130,000. 
Sorry, 101,300 hours would be 

1118
00:57:51,080 --> 00:57:52,800
the, that's the top 1% of the 
data. 

1119
00:57:52,800 --> 00:57:54,960
And so divide, divide that by 
24. 

1120
00:57:55,960 --> 00:57:58,920
OK, So it's basically we're 
looking at the I, I isolate the 

1121
00:57:58,920 --> 00:58:01,280
top 54 days. 
So it's still a significant 

1122
00:58:01,280 --> 00:58:03,440
amount of time. 
This is essentially the period 

1123
00:58:03,440 --> 00:58:06,160
around all the peaks. 
So if you take those 54 days and

1124
00:58:06,160 --> 00:58:08,520
you look at the full history of 
Bitcoin, those have been the 

1125
00:58:08,520 --> 00:58:10,840
most parabolic periods 
throughout Bitcoin's history. 

1126
00:58:11,080 --> 00:58:16,440
So we're we're looking at and 
assessing the most extreme 

1127
00:58:16,720 --> 00:58:19,360
outliers you could say are the 
most parabolic moments for a 

1128
00:58:19,360 --> 00:58:21,320
Bitcoin. 
It's kind of like a, a snapshot 

1129
00:58:21,320 --> 00:58:25,120
of those those events. 
So that top 1%, I basically take

1130
00:58:25,120 --> 00:58:28,760
that based on the ratios and, 
and doing the stretch 

1131
00:58:28,760 --> 00:58:30,880
exponential decay fit. 
And then from there I did a 

1132
00:58:30,880 --> 00:58:34,680
median quantile regression of 
median stretch exponential decay

1133
00:58:34,680 --> 00:58:36,120
quantile regression of that top 
1%. 

1134
00:58:36,360 --> 00:58:39,000
So just like, remember at the 
second chart where we kind of 

1135
00:58:39,000 --> 00:58:42,640
did a, a median fit of the 
bottom 50% and we got like, you 

1136
00:58:42,640 --> 00:58:47,160
know, 25% below 25% above for 
the top half, I isolate that top

1137
00:58:47,160 --> 00:58:49,800
1% because that's what we're 
most interested in. 

1138
00:58:50,120 --> 00:58:52,760
And it, and it's still enough 
data that you can, you can 

1139
00:58:52,760 --> 00:58:54,880
actually get a meaningful 
statistical results. 

1140
00:58:55,200 --> 00:58:58,920
And so you take that top 1%, you
you find the middle of that and 

1141
00:58:58,920 --> 00:59:01,480
that's your trend. 
And then by, and then I use that

1142
00:59:01,480 --> 00:59:05,200
trend to actually do what I do 
with the bottom 50%, where I 

1143
00:59:05,200 --> 00:59:07,960
take that trend. 
I keep that same slope and then 

1144
00:59:07,960 --> 00:59:11,400
I find all those points of 
another, another 500 fits for 

1145
00:59:11,400 --> 00:59:13,840
the top half. 
Anyways, I know it's a lot of 

1146
00:59:13,840 --> 00:59:16,880
statistics, a lot, a lot to 
explain, but the end result is 

1147
00:59:16,880 --> 00:59:18,720
this. 
And, and I do personally 

1148
00:59:18,720 --> 00:59:20,560
believe, obviously, you know, I 
created it. 

1149
00:59:20,560 --> 00:59:23,600
So I'm kind of biased, but I, I 
know how much effort and time 

1150
00:59:23,600 --> 00:59:25,960
went into it. 
And I also there's other great 

1151
00:59:25,960 --> 00:59:29,320
analysts like Cena who 
contributed to it, Smithson as 

1152
00:59:29,320 --> 00:59:32,800
well, Giovanni, Giovanni 
obviously with, with observing 

1153
00:59:32,800 --> 00:59:37,320
the power law as well. 
So this is this to me is as much

1154
00:59:37,320 --> 00:59:39,840
as I kind of was the person that
spent the most time on it and 

1155
00:59:39,840 --> 00:59:42,600
and put it out there, there's a 
lot of people that contributed 

1156
00:59:42,600 --> 00:59:45,320
to it in various ways. 
So really some of the best minds

1157
00:59:45,320 --> 00:59:47,200
in the space. 
It's not like this is just me 

1158
00:59:47,400 --> 00:59:49,120
there. 
There's a group of analysts, 

1159
00:59:49,920 --> 00:59:54,800
most of them with pH DS that 
really would say that validate 

1160
00:59:54,800 --> 00:59:57,560
this basically. 
And so the really cool thing 

1161
00:59:57,560 --> 01:00:01,360
about this as far as its value, 
I mean, just explain it, people 

1162
01:00:01,360 --> 01:00:04,280
looking at it here at the top 
right corner, what that number 

1163
01:00:04,280 --> 01:00:06,800
represents. 
Is the quantile we're currently 

1164
01:00:06,800 --> 01:00:12,280
at based on, I updated this 
actually yesterday is when the 

1165
01:00:12,280 --> 01:00:18,120
data cut off SO100117 point 
.6000. 

1166
01:00:18,360 --> 01:00:24,000
So that price in U.S. dollars 
equates to say the 7072 

1167
01:00:24,240 --> 01:00:27,120
quantile. 
So that gives us an idea of 

1168
01:00:27,120 --> 01:00:28,360
where we are within the data 
set. 

1169
01:00:28,480 --> 01:00:29,840
You can kind of visually look at
it. 

1170
01:00:29,840 --> 01:00:33,680
But that number on the top right
is, is telling us, OK, 72, we're

1171
01:00:33,680 --> 01:00:35,240
at 72. 
What does that mean? 

1172
01:00:35,240 --> 01:00:40,000
What does that number represent?
That means 2828% of of the 

1173
01:00:40,280 --> 01:00:42,280
historic hours since the genesis
block. 

1174
01:00:42,880 --> 01:00:46,880
We were more overheated, we were
more away like we were 

1175
01:00:47,880 --> 01:00:50,680
relatively speaking, when 
factoring in diminishing returns

1176
01:00:50,680 --> 01:00:53,280
and all the math, we were higher
than this level. 

1177
01:00:53,640 --> 01:00:57,320
And, and 72% of the time we've 
actually been below this point. 

1178
01:00:57,960 --> 01:01:03,960
So getting close to 3/4 of the 
time we've actually been below 

1179
01:01:03,960 --> 01:01:07,040
and, and a quarter above. 
But and then you can see the 

1180
01:01:07,040 --> 01:01:08,800
different bands and what they 
represent. 

1181
01:01:08,800 --> 01:01:10,680
So that bottom band, I call it 
base camp. 

1182
01:01:10,720 --> 01:01:12,840
It's it's kind of a 
mountaineering theme, right? 

1183
01:01:12,840 --> 01:01:15,640
So the bottom dark blue band, 
that's base camp. 

1184
01:01:15,640 --> 01:01:18,560
So that's the first quantile to 
the 20th quantile. 

1185
01:01:19,280 --> 01:01:21,400
And so that that's what that 
band represents across the 

1186
01:01:21,400 --> 01:01:22,880
whole. 
And you can see like all the 

1187
01:01:22,880 --> 01:01:25,360
lows, you know, kind of bottoms 
of the bear market. 

1188
01:01:25,360 --> 01:01:29,440
We always come down to that 
lower blue band and that's the 

1189
01:01:29,560 --> 01:01:32,720
the bottom 20% of the days 
essentially. 

1190
01:01:33,080 --> 01:01:36,760
And that's where Bitcoin that's 
kind of like the the floor, you 

1191
01:01:36,760 --> 01:01:38,960
could call it, or the power law 
long term trend. 

1192
01:01:40,440 --> 01:01:44,240
And so, yeah, I call that base 
camp above that low, low 

1193
01:01:44,240 --> 01:01:46,560
mountain, which is like 20 to 
40. 

1194
01:01:46,560 --> 01:01:48,520
It's just a fun way to to kind 
of visualize it. 

1195
01:01:48,520 --> 01:01:51,720
So you're kind of you're kind of
leaving base camp, OK, we're at 

1196
01:01:51,720 --> 01:01:55,280
the like lower end of the of the
mountain or whatever, right? 

1197
01:01:55,680 --> 01:01:58,240
So that's the the little bit 
lighter blue there. 

1198
01:01:58,560 --> 01:02:01,720
And you can also see on the the 
bottom there you can see kind of

1199
01:02:01,720 --> 01:02:06,320
corresponding prices based on 
what quantile we're at and then 

1200
01:02:06,320 --> 01:02:08,760
based on the the period, right. 
Yeah. 

1201
01:02:08,800 --> 01:02:11,320
So the far left you can see 
August 17th. 

1202
01:02:11,320 --> 01:02:15,160
So that was yesterday and then 
three months from now in 

1203
01:02:15,160 --> 01:02:17,960
November 17th. 
So it goes three months and then

1204
01:02:17,960 --> 01:02:19,760
you can see, you know what is it
in three months? 

1205
01:02:19,760 --> 01:02:22,720
What are all the the levels at 
in three months, another three 

1206
01:02:22,720 --> 01:02:25,040
months, February, right, Maybe 
the market extend or maybe the 

1207
01:02:25,040 --> 01:02:27,640
cycle extends to next year. 
OK, those are the numbers there 

1208
01:02:27,960 --> 01:02:30,320
and it goes out a full year into
the future. 

1209
01:02:30,520 --> 01:02:34,480
And then I also showed January 
1st, 2030 for people that are, 

1210
01:02:34,480 --> 01:02:36,400
you know, really just focused on
the long term. 

1211
01:02:36,760 --> 01:02:38,760
I, I kind of felt like it was 
good to go out five years. 

1212
01:02:38,920 --> 01:02:41,000
I could go out longer, I could 
go out 1015. 

1213
01:02:41,000 --> 01:02:45,080
But I, I think it's best to, 
there's kind of a rule in, in 

1214
01:02:45,080 --> 01:02:48,000
statistics where depending on 
how much data you have, you can 

1215
01:02:48,000 --> 01:02:49,640
kind of model out a certain 
distance. 

1216
01:02:49,640 --> 01:02:53,080
And so be given that we have 
about 15-16 years of data, it's,

1217
01:02:53,120 --> 01:02:56,280
it's responsible to model out 
five years, not necessarily 

1218
01:02:56,680 --> 01:02:59,400
responsible to model out 10 or 
15 years, at least in my 

1219
01:02:59,400 --> 01:03:01,400
opinion. 
But this gives us yeah, I know 

1220
01:03:01,400 --> 01:03:03,400
what your thoughts on on 
everything here, but. 

1221
01:03:04,640 --> 01:03:07,840
Yeah, So correct me if I'm 
wrong, but if I'm reading this, 

1222
01:03:07,840 --> 01:03:12,880
so you know, we're basically 
never going below 50K again. 

1223
01:03:13,000 --> 01:03:16,200
Is, is, is one thing how I 
translate it. 

1224
01:03:16,200 --> 01:03:19,760
I don't know if that's is that's
the correct way to, to say it or

1225
01:03:19,760 --> 01:03:27,800
like, because the majority of 
time, you know, 99% we would be 

1226
01:03:27,800 --> 01:03:34,080
above that and then the top ones
are basically kind of like peak 

1227
01:03:34,080 --> 01:03:37,160
predictions. 
Is that how I can say that? 

1228
01:03:37,520 --> 01:03:39,280
Yeah. 
Yeah, exactly. 

1229
01:03:39,320 --> 01:03:44,880
I mean, so as far as the 
probability of going to 50 Ki 

1230
01:03:44,880 --> 01:03:47,280
mean that depends on when we go 
there. 

1231
01:03:48,680 --> 01:03:51,880
If we were to go there tomorrow,
it's still possible, right? 

1232
01:03:51,920 --> 01:03:54,160
I mean, I don't think we're 
going to, to be clear. 

1233
01:03:54,360 --> 01:03:57,440
But if for whatever reason the 
cycle's over and and we go down 

1234
01:03:57,440 --> 01:04:00,800
to the first quantile, OK, it's 
at 47,000, right? 

1235
01:04:01,160 --> 01:04:02,520
So that's kind of worst case 
scenario. 

1236
01:04:02,520 --> 01:04:05,360
And, and The thing is like even 
during the bear, even during the

1237
01:04:05,360 --> 01:04:07,440
bear markets, we don't 
necessarily get down to the 

1238
01:04:07,440 --> 01:04:09,680
first quantile and there's no 
guarantee we'll ever get down to

1239
01:04:09,680 --> 01:04:11,200
the first quantile. 
This is a range of 

1240
01:04:11,200 --> 01:04:13,840
probabilities. 
This is not deterministic. 

1241
01:04:13,840 --> 01:04:16,640
This is basically giving you the
probabilistic range based on the

1242
01:04:16,640 --> 01:04:19,560
full data set, giving you, you 
know, relatively speaking, where

1243
01:04:19,560 --> 01:04:22,520
we are within the data. 
So I mean, we don't have to go 

1244
01:04:22,520 --> 01:04:25,680
down to the one ever again. 
And and even if you look back at

1245
01:04:25,680 --> 01:04:29,920
like say 2015, 2016, you see how
we never really went down to the

1246
01:04:30,040 --> 01:04:31,840
lower quantiles. 
It actually wasn't till the 

1247
01:04:31,840 --> 01:04:34,880
COVID crash that that's what 
that it was actually a Black 

1248
01:04:34,880 --> 01:04:36,880
Swan. 
Usually it's black Swans that 

1249
01:04:36,880 --> 01:04:38,480
bring us down to those bottom 
quantiles. 

1250
01:04:38,720 --> 01:04:40,480
Like if you look at the FTX. 
Collapse. 

1251
01:04:41,280 --> 01:04:44,640
Yeah, the FTX collapse collapse,
Luna collapse, it took so many 

1252
01:04:44,640 --> 01:04:48,560
collapses and an extreme, you 
know, you could argue Gray or 

1253
01:04:48,560 --> 01:04:52,360
Black Swan events last cycle to 
bring us ultimately down to the 

1254
01:04:52,400 --> 01:04:55,680
the first quantile. 
Same with COVID, you know, same 

1255
01:04:55,680 --> 01:05:00,680
with I guess we, we did get 
there in, in the 2014 market. 

1256
01:05:01,520 --> 01:05:04,240
I got confused between 2018 and 
2014, but it but anyways, you 

1257
01:05:04,240 --> 01:05:06,640
can see it there visually. 
I mean, we there's no guarantee 

1258
01:05:06,640 --> 01:05:10,200
to get to those lower quantiles 
just just, but similarly there's

1259
01:05:10,200 --> 01:05:11,760
no guarantee to get to the upper
quantiles. 

1260
01:05:12,280 --> 01:05:15,080
Now we have got to those upper 
quantiles every single cycle. 

1261
01:05:15,400 --> 01:05:18,320
We have got to that top 5% every
single time. 

1262
01:05:18,480 --> 01:05:20,280
We actually got there twice last
cycle. 

1263
01:05:20,720 --> 01:05:27,320
So you know, the pattern so far 
is 4 times of getting there. 

1264
01:05:27,320 --> 01:05:29,680
Doesn't mean we will get there, 
but I think there's a decent 

1265
01:05:29,840 --> 01:05:32,600
probability we'll get to the top
5% of the data set. 

1266
01:05:32,800 --> 01:05:35,520
Now, will we get to the top 
99.9? 

1267
01:05:36,200 --> 01:05:37,960
No idea. 
No, no way of knowing that. 

1268
01:05:37,960 --> 01:05:41,120
Nobody knows that because those 
are events that that's based on 

1269
01:05:41,120 --> 01:05:44,600
human emotion, that's based on 
news events, that's really based

1270
01:05:44,600 --> 01:05:49,560
on a lot of FOMO most likely, 
you know there. 

1271
01:05:49,680 --> 01:05:52,360
But we are having a pretty 
healthy upwards trajectory. 

1272
01:05:52,360 --> 01:05:54,520
So maybe we'd get there in a 
more healthy way this cycle. 

1273
01:05:54,520 --> 01:05:57,120
I mean, it's completely possible
if the cycle extends potentially

1274
01:05:57,280 --> 01:05:58,600
there's a lot of ways it could 
play out. 

1275
01:05:58,960 --> 01:06:03,560
But relatively speaking, you 
know, we're at 72, most of the 

1276
01:06:03,560 --> 01:06:06,680
gains are in that top 10 
percent, 5%. 

1277
01:06:06,880 --> 01:06:10,720
So just because we're at 72 
doesn't mean oh, Oh no, there's 

1278
01:06:10,720 --> 01:06:13,360
only 28% of the gains left this 
cycle. 

1279
01:06:13,360 --> 01:06:15,760
No, it doesn't work that way. 
The majority of the gains are 

1280
01:06:15,760 --> 01:06:19,120
towards those top quantiles. 
So, you know, people can sell 

1281
01:06:19,120 --> 01:06:22,280
whenever they want. 
And it's probably if you do want

1282
01:06:22,280 --> 01:06:26,440
to sell, you want to ladder out.
But The thing is, you know, even

1283
01:06:26,440 --> 01:06:30,080
if we're at 72, we're, we're not
at like 95 or 98, there's a big 

1284
01:06:30,080 --> 01:06:32,400
difference there and there's a 
lot of gains still left. 

1285
01:06:32,640 --> 01:06:34,960
So that's kind of how you can 
see that visually on the, on 

1286
01:06:34,960 --> 01:06:38,720
the, on the, on the charts. 
So just as an example, a lot of 

1287
01:06:38,720 --> 01:06:41,000
people think will peak this year
if we follow the four year 

1288
01:06:41,000 --> 01:06:44,320
cycle, you know, that would, 
that would mean so, so November 

1289
01:06:44,320 --> 01:06:49,120
17th, right, three months from 
now, the very top .1%. 

1290
01:06:49,240 --> 01:06:52,280
So that's the very small 
percentage of the data that's, 

1291
01:06:53,160 --> 01:06:59,040
you know, .1% basically we've 
only been above that, I guess 

1292
01:06:59,040 --> 01:07:04,760
130 day, 130 hours, right? 
So that top .1% is really 130 

1293
01:07:04,760 --> 01:07:07,800
hours, the most extremes of the 
extreme peaks. 

1294
01:07:08,320 --> 01:07:14,960
So, so to get to that, that's 
200 and and 54K in in November. 

1295
01:07:15,640 --> 01:07:18,080
But there's a range there from 
190 to 250. 

1296
01:07:18,080 --> 01:07:22,120
So I think it's a reasonable 
range like if we do peak say and

1297
01:07:22,120 --> 01:07:25,960
towards the end of this year 
anywhere between 180 and 260, 

1298
01:07:26,160 --> 01:07:28,400
you know, 190 and 260, somewhere
in that range. 

1299
01:07:28,400 --> 01:07:31,800
If we get to that top 5% seems 
like a reasonable number. 

1300
01:07:31,960 --> 01:07:33,560
Think about it. 
If we don't, they basically 

1301
01:07:33,560 --> 01:07:36,960
we're going to have to so say we
double between now and the end 

1302
01:07:36,960 --> 01:07:40,240
of the year, right? 
Like that's a lot of capital 

1303
01:07:40,240 --> 01:07:42,440
coming in. 
I mean, given that we have a 2 /

1304
01:07:42,440 --> 01:07:45,360
a two trillion market cap, I 
know that, you know, it's not 

1305
01:07:45,360 --> 01:07:48,080
necessarily dollar for dollar 
money coming in doesn't equate 

1306
01:07:48,080 --> 01:07:50,600
to price going up if people 
aren't selling, you know, you 

1307
01:07:50,600 --> 01:07:52,680
can have a multiplier there. 
So it does. 

1308
01:07:52,680 --> 01:07:56,280
We don't need $2 trillion to 
come in, but we still need 

1309
01:07:56,280 --> 01:07:58,280
significant capital to double 
the market cap. 

1310
01:07:58,280 --> 01:08:02,440
And so, yeah, I mean, lots of 
ways to to talk about it here. 

1311
01:08:03,440 --> 01:08:06,480
I guess as a long term holder, 
like what's what's your thoughts

1312
01:08:06,480 --> 01:08:10,640
on just on some of the targets, 
I mean the 2020 thirty target 

1313
01:08:11,400 --> 01:08:16,960
anywhere between 5:40 and 6:50 
for the top 5%. 

1314
01:08:18,640 --> 01:08:22,720
But look at that bottom, look at
that 1%, I mean the bottom one 

1315
01:08:22,720 --> 01:08:25,000
first quantile we're at 190, 
right. 

1316
01:08:25,600 --> 01:08:29,600
So yeah, I don't know that 
diminishing volatility, but 

1317
01:08:29,600 --> 01:08:30,760
yeah, what's your, what's your 
thoughts? 

1318
01:08:31,120 --> 01:08:37,080
I find it interesting that the 
jump between 96 K in the in the 

1319
01:08:37,080 --> 01:08:41,800
20% in in 26. 
So it one year from now and then

1320
01:08:41,800 --> 01:08:50,399
four years later is almost a 3X 
so August 1726 to January 1st 

1321
01:08:50,399 --> 01:08:54,240
2020 thirty. 
So I think that it is straight 

1322
01:08:54,240 --> 01:09:00,319
for me the IT only three X but 
dollar wise a big amount. 

1323
01:09:01,359 --> 01:09:03,840
Yeah, and that's only for the 
peaks like I mean, I guess. 

1324
01:09:04,640 --> 01:09:06,120
I mean in the blue on the 
bottom. 

1325
01:09:06,120 --> 01:09:10,160
Oh, sorry, it's just a 20% or 
you said an 80? 

1326
01:09:10,160 --> 01:09:12,040
Percent right. 
Oh, I see what you're talking 

1327
01:09:12,040 --> 01:09:12,800
about. 
Sorry about that. 

1328
01:09:12,800 --> 01:09:16,160
Yeah, you're talking about. 60. 
7 to 190 or 180. 

1329
01:09:16,160 --> 01:09:20,840
Nine, yeah, no, the 96 to 272 
basically like that is a oh 

1330
01:09:20,920 --> 01:09:26,600
right, OK, that is a that is 
only three X higher on the on 

1331
01:09:26,600 --> 01:09:30,840
the low end right on the floor. 
But you know dollar wise that's 

1332
01:09:31,120 --> 01:09:34,560
that's a big amount. 
So yeah, of course over time the

1333
01:09:35,960 --> 01:09:40,200
the multipliers are less what 
happens but the amount 

1334
01:09:40,600 --> 01:09:43,359
denominated in dollars obviously
is is bigger. 

1335
01:09:43,359 --> 01:09:49,200
So I find that interesting. 
I'm still thinking, OK, so there

1336
01:09:49,200 --> 01:09:51,359
are different people that hold 
Bitcoin, right? 

1337
01:09:51,359 --> 01:09:53,920
So we are long term holders. 
There are people that say like, 

1338
01:09:53,920 --> 01:09:56,720
oh, you can use the math. 
I think Giovanni for example, 

1339
01:09:57,480 --> 01:10:01,840
talks about how can you get in 
high then follow the math and 

1340
01:10:01,840 --> 01:10:05,040
then or get out high and then 
follow the math and then get get

1341
01:10:05,040 --> 01:10:11,760
back in lower. 
So maybe to ask you, you know, 

1342
01:10:11,760 --> 01:10:17,400
how do you think people could 
use this to either do that or 

1343
01:10:17,400 --> 01:10:19,160
perhaps build stronger 
conviction? 

1344
01:10:19,160 --> 01:10:23,240
So when I look at this as a long
term holder, the trend is 

1345
01:10:23,240 --> 01:10:27,840
clearly up, right? 
I think for me, after 10 years 

1346
01:10:27,840 --> 01:10:32,520
in Bitcoin, you know, up, up, up
and down, up and down, crazy 

1347
01:10:32,560 --> 01:10:41,280
stomach turning 8085% drops. 
I'm happy that you also agree 

1348
01:10:41,280 --> 01:10:43,280
that it will be less. 
I also think it'll be less. 

1349
01:10:43,280 --> 01:10:45,720
So 50% would still be hard to 
stomach. 

1350
01:10:46,200 --> 01:10:50,960
Although this I think helps to 
see that over a longer time 

1351
01:10:50,960 --> 01:10:55,120
frame. 
My Bitcoin thesis is probably 

1352
01:10:55,120 --> 01:10:59,440
still correct, you know, and I 
should still chill and huddle 

1353
01:10:59,440 --> 01:11:02,680
basically. 
So I think that is something 

1354
01:11:02,680 --> 01:11:09,520
that helps me if I think about 
how to then, yeah, maybe put 

1355
01:11:09,520 --> 01:11:13,280
numbers on it to comfort myself 
when it goes down. 

1356
01:11:13,280 --> 01:11:16,680
Basically, I think just reading 
this chart is something that 

1357
01:11:18,200 --> 01:11:23,320
perhaps would be interesting to 
to maybe maybe share for people 

1358
01:11:23,320 --> 01:11:25,880
that want to see how they can 
make it practical for for 

1359
01:11:25,880 --> 01:11:27,640
themselves in whatever their 
strategy. 

1360
01:11:27,640 --> 01:11:29,920
Is yeah. 
And, and again, for me, it 

1361
01:11:29,920 --> 01:11:33,280
really does like the primary 
purpose is long term conviction 

1362
01:11:33,440 --> 01:11:36,760
for me personally, you know, 
just to have that really zoomed 

1363
01:11:36,760 --> 01:11:39,240
out perspective, even though 
this cycle I've been really 

1364
01:11:39,240 --> 01:11:42,360
relaxed the whole time up, if 
there is a period that comes 

1365
01:11:42,360 --> 01:11:45,640
where my conviction is tested to
any degree, because I'm human, I

1366
01:11:45,640 --> 01:11:49,040
have emotions, you know, this 
helps. 

1367
01:11:49,040 --> 01:11:51,360
It just it's a good tool to 
really zoom out and say like, 

1368
01:11:51,360 --> 01:11:53,640
look, we're on track, long term 
trend is intact. 

1369
01:11:53,920 --> 01:11:55,480
Nothing out of the ordinary is 
occurring. 

1370
01:11:55,480 --> 01:11:58,880
This is short term, you know, 
this is the range I can also 

1371
01:11:59,280 --> 01:12:01,120
stomach. 
I can kind of like brace myself 

1372
01:12:01,120 --> 01:12:03,160
for worst case scenarios if 
there's a Black Swan and say, 

1373
01:12:03,160 --> 01:12:05,960
OK, we could go down to here 
potentially and still be within 

1374
01:12:05,960 --> 01:12:10,720
the the model and kind of have a
realistic upper reasonable 

1375
01:12:10,720 --> 01:12:13,440
range. 
Now, nothing's guaranteed, of 

1376
01:12:13,440 --> 01:12:17,440
course, but I think having this 
as a tool now the the Y axis is 

1377
01:12:17,440 --> 01:12:20,600
in log as well, just for people 
that might not have seen log 

1378
01:12:20,600 --> 01:12:23,600
charts as much. 
So if they're saying, wow, it 

1379
01:12:23,600 --> 01:12:26,000
doesn't look like bitcoins going
up that steep. 

1380
01:12:26,160 --> 01:12:28,600
I mean, this is logged. 
So if you looked at it linear 

1381
01:12:28,600 --> 01:12:30,920
would just be off the chart. 
You couldn't even really see it.

1382
01:12:30,920 --> 01:12:34,600
Almost all the charts around 
Bitcoin we see are in log on the

1383
01:12:34,640 --> 01:12:38,240
Y axis. 
So you know, it's, it's, it's up

1384
01:12:38,240 --> 01:12:42,160
and to the right, but it's also 
when you when you squish it with

1385
01:12:42,160 --> 01:12:44,560
a log Y axis. 
So it's even more up into the 

1386
01:12:44,560 --> 01:12:47,040
right than it visually looks. 
I think most people understand 

1387
01:12:47,040 --> 01:12:50,000
that. 
So yeah, I mean, I think it's 

1388
01:12:50,000 --> 01:12:51,960
important to understand your 
emotions as well. 

1389
01:12:52,560 --> 01:12:53,880
And there's different 
personality types. 

1390
01:12:53,880 --> 01:12:56,440
I won't go into this too much, 
but there's there's some people 

1391
01:12:56,440 --> 01:12:58,640
that are naturally optimistic 
and some people are naturally 

1392
01:12:58,640 --> 01:13:00,800
pessimistic and they both have 
their pros and cons. 

1393
01:13:01,280 --> 01:13:03,200
It's good to understand your own
personality when you're an 

1394
01:13:03,200 --> 01:13:05,560
investor, though. 
I tend to be on the optimistic 

1395
01:13:05,560 --> 01:13:08,480
side, which is good in some ways
because throughout my life I 

1396
01:13:08,480 --> 01:13:10,600
tend to expect the best things 
to occur. 

1397
01:13:10,720 --> 01:13:12,640
I tend to be positive. 
I tend to have a good outlook on

1398
01:13:12,640 --> 01:13:14,040
the future. 
But there there's a 

1399
01:13:14,040 --> 01:13:17,520
susceptibility there where you 
are biased towards being bullish

1400
01:13:17,840 --> 01:13:20,840
and you and you have to kind of 
intentionally pull yourself back

1401
01:13:20,840 --> 01:13:23,760
to a neutral point. 
And these are tools to do that, 

1402
01:13:23,760 --> 01:13:25,920
at least in my opinion. 
There's other indicators of 

1403
01:13:25,920 --> 01:13:29,440
course, and other ways you can 
do that, but to stay grounded, 

1404
01:13:29,440 --> 01:13:31,480
right? 
Because, but if someone's, so if

1405
01:13:31,480 --> 01:13:34,680
for somebody's optimistic, 
naturally optimistic, they have 

1406
01:13:34,680 --> 01:13:36,880
a harder time selling when the 
price is high because I think 

1407
01:13:36,880 --> 01:13:38,840
it's going to keep going up. 
But it's easy to buy when the 

1408
01:13:38,840 --> 01:13:40,560
price is down. 
I, I bought during the COVID 

1409
01:13:40,560 --> 01:13:42,600
crash. 
I, I bought a little bit during 

1410
01:13:42,600 --> 01:13:44,280
the FTX collapse near the 
bottom. 

1411
01:13:44,280 --> 01:13:46,960
So for me, it's super easy to 
buy at the bottoms. 

1412
01:13:46,960 --> 01:13:48,680
I have a harder time selling at 
the peaks. 

1413
01:13:48,680 --> 01:13:50,440
And so that's why I've just held
the whole time. 

1414
01:13:51,320 --> 01:13:53,440
Other people the opposite. 
They tend to be more naturally 

1415
01:13:53,440 --> 01:13:54,920
pessimistic. 
So they might have a hard time 

1416
01:13:54,920 --> 01:13:56,880
buying Bitcoin because all they 
see is the negatives. 

1417
01:13:57,120 --> 01:13:59,720
They can't buy when the price is
down, but it's easy for them to 

1418
01:13:59,720 --> 01:14:02,760
sell when the price is run up 
like halfway through the cycle 

1419
01:14:03,040 --> 01:14:05,880
or whatever They they or or or 
sell when it's high right. 

1420
01:14:05,880 --> 01:14:08,200
So it's good to know your own 
personality, your own biases. 

1421
01:14:08,520 --> 01:14:12,520
That's all important. 
As far as use case, I don't 

1422
01:14:12,520 --> 01:14:14,520
promote trading at all. 
I definitely am. 

1423
01:14:14,880 --> 01:14:16,680
I don't want to be someone who 
promotes trading. 

1424
01:14:16,960 --> 01:14:19,200
I think there's so many people 
that get wrecked trying to trade

1425
01:14:19,200 --> 01:14:20,760
Bitcoin. 
I think it's silly. 

1426
01:14:20,880 --> 01:14:24,560
I think just hold long term like
like especially when you see 

1427
01:14:24,680 --> 01:14:27,440
things like this and you 
understand the math like why are

1428
01:14:27,440 --> 01:14:31,000
we trading? 
I mean it's yeah, I think I 

1429
01:14:31,000 --> 01:14:34,040
think to to promote this idea of
trading Bitcoin. 

1430
01:14:34,440 --> 01:14:36,760
The way I look at it is, is not 
about trading Bitcoin. 

1431
01:14:37,400 --> 01:14:39,840
So this tool helps me again long
term conviction. 

1432
01:14:39,960 --> 01:14:43,160
But the other use case for me 
personally is if I am going to 

1433
01:14:43,160 --> 01:14:47,000
sell a percentage of my Bitcoin 
throughout the long term, you 

1434
01:14:47,000 --> 01:14:50,320
know, upwards trend over the 
next 5-10, whatever years or 

1435
01:14:50,320 --> 01:14:54,400
even longer when I'm going to 
sell some percentages for I call

1436
01:14:54,400 --> 01:14:56,760
them lifestyle chips. 
So you take some lifestyle chips

1437
01:14:56,760 --> 01:14:59,480
off the table. 
I don't do it expecting to get 

1438
01:14:59,480 --> 01:15:02,600
back in lower. 
I do it that where I'm 

1439
01:15:02,600 --> 01:15:05,440
comfortable and I and I can kind
of assess what kind of value I'm

1440
01:15:05,440 --> 01:15:07,200
getting. 
OK, Bitcoins at Quantal 90. 

1441
01:15:07,440 --> 01:15:10,360
OK, I'm getting decent value for
this. 90% of the time it's been 

1442
01:15:10,360 --> 01:15:11,920
lower, 10% of the time it's been
higher. 

1443
01:15:12,160 --> 01:15:15,600
OK, I take some chips off. 
I, I buy something meaningful in

1444
01:15:15,600 --> 01:15:19,840
my life, buy time or whatever, 
however you want to find it, but

1445
01:15:19,840 --> 01:15:22,040
I don't expect to get back in at
the bottom. 

1446
01:15:22,040 --> 01:15:25,600
So I know I never, I never for 
me personally, I'm not using 

1447
01:15:25,600 --> 01:15:28,360
this as a trading tool. 
People could do that. 

1448
01:15:28,360 --> 01:15:30,840
I'm not promoting that. 
I think it's a conviction tool 

1449
01:15:30,840 --> 01:15:34,320
long term and it's a tool to 
assess the value you're getting 

1450
01:15:34,320 --> 01:15:35,840
if you have to sell your 
Bitcoin. 

1451
01:15:36,160 --> 01:15:39,560
So say someone for whatever 
reason has to sell or they want 

1452
01:15:39,560 --> 01:15:40,840
to sell. 
Everyone has their own 

1453
01:15:40,840 --> 01:15:42,160
circumstance, their own 
reasoning. 

1454
01:15:42,320 --> 01:15:45,680
Maybe somebody is, is 80 years 
old and they they want to take a

1455
01:15:46,040 --> 01:15:48,920
vacation or, or do something, 
you know, with their family. 

1456
01:15:49,160 --> 01:15:52,360
I mean, at that point, is it 
good for them to huddle another 

1457
01:15:52,360 --> 01:15:54,160
30 years? 
Maybe not. 

1458
01:15:54,200 --> 01:15:56,680
I mean, it's so life stages is 
another factor. 

1459
01:15:57,520 --> 01:16:01,200
But yeah, all of that to say, I 
mean, it's not a trading, it's 

1460
01:16:01,200 --> 01:16:03,800
not a trading model. 
It, it's a, it's a giving you 

1461
01:16:05,000 --> 01:16:08,720
based on all the historic data, 
the best way we can assessing 

1462
01:16:08,840 --> 01:16:11,840
where we are within the 
historical relative data set, 

1463
01:16:11,840 --> 01:16:14,600
factoring in all the math, 
diminishing returns, all the 

1464
01:16:14,600 --> 01:16:17,840
things we spoke of. 
It's kind of giving you a, a, a 

1465
01:16:18,280 --> 01:16:20,920
framework to be like, OK, this 
is where we're at now. 

1466
01:16:21,240 --> 01:16:22,880
You decide whatever you're going
to do with that. 

1467
01:16:22,880 --> 01:16:24,680
Hope that makes makes some 
sense. 

1468
01:16:25,000 --> 01:16:28,720
Yeah, yeah, definitely. 
I think, well, short question in

1469
01:16:28,720 --> 01:16:33,160
between, do you have like a live
dashboard or do you plan on 

1470
01:16:33,160 --> 01:16:35,000
building something like that, 
like that? 

1471
01:16:35,000 --> 01:16:38,520
There's a way that people can 
actually go there when they 

1472
01:16:38,520 --> 01:16:41,320
listen to this and then see 
where we're at today. 

1473
01:16:41,320 --> 01:16:43,480
Absolutely, yeah, I'm going to 
have it up on a site. 

1474
01:16:43,480 --> 01:16:45,760
It will be free. 
I'm just going to basically 

1475
01:16:45,760 --> 01:16:48,640
throw it up on a website. 
It's it's about 1100 lines of 

1476
01:16:48,640 --> 01:16:51,240
code and I want to have it so 
that essentially it's just 

1477
01:16:51,240 --> 01:16:53,800
automatically updating every 
hour on a on a site. 

1478
01:16:55,240 --> 01:16:57,200
And I need to like get this out 
fast. 

1479
01:16:57,240 --> 01:16:59,440
I, I've been doing other things 
in my life, but it's like, OK, 

1480
01:16:59,440 --> 01:17:01,920
we're getting closer to 
potentially some sort of peak 

1481
01:17:01,920 --> 01:17:04,680
over the next year or sixteen 
months, whatever it is, it being

1482
01:17:04,680 --> 01:17:06,600
six months, whatever the 
whatever the period, I don't 

1483
01:17:06,600 --> 01:17:10,160
know. 
But I should also say like I'm 

1484
01:17:10,160 --> 01:17:13,520
cycle length agnostic. 
So, and that's actually a 

1485
01:17:13,520 --> 01:17:17,600
really, that's a, in my opinion,
it's a feature of this model. 

1486
01:17:17,600 --> 01:17:19,960
It's actually doesn't factor in 
cycle length. 

1487
01:17:20,280 --> 01:17:24,560
So there are other models that 
use cycle length as a, as a, as 

1488
01:17:24,560 --> 01:17:26,960
an input. 
This doesn't, this is cycle 

1489
01:17:26,960 --> 01:17:29,120
length agnostic. 
This is basically just showing 

1490
01:17:29,120 --> 01:17:31,040
you the bands, how overheated we
are. 

1491
01:17:31,040 --> 01:17:34,000
It's not saying you know when 
we're going to peak the exact 

1492
01:17:34,000 --> 01:17:36,480
day. 
I think I personally, I believe 

1493
01:17:36,480 --> 01:17:39,880
that's a little bit of a pursuit
because we really only have a 

1494
01:17:39,880 --> 01:17:41,360
couple data points for the 
cycle. 

1495
01:17:41,360 --> 01:17:44,160
So yes, we followed this kind of
four year pattern and it 

1496
01:17:44,160 --> 01:17:46,800
absolutely could continue. 
I'm not saying it won't, it's 

1497
01:17:46,800 --> 01:17:48,560
possible. 
I mean, there's a lot of 

1498
01:17:48,560 --> 01:17:53,240
psychological bias and people 
towards potentially, you know, 

1499
01:17:53,240 --> 01:17:55,960
that four years, I think some 
people will sell just because 

1500
01:17:55,960 --> 01:17:58,160
it's four years. 
I actually put on a poll one 

1501
01:17:58,160 --> 01:18:00,600
time a while ago and it had a 
good amount of votes. 

1502
01:18:00,960 --> 01:18:03,520
And there's still a huge 
percentage of people that expect

1503
01:18:03,520 --> 01:18:05,400
us to keep doing that for your 
cycle. 

1504
01:18:05,400 --> 01:18:08,480
So, but this cycle doesn't 
doesn't factor in length. 

1505
01:18:08,520 --> 01:18:11,120
It's strictly how overweight 
heated we are. 

1506
01:18:11,320 --> 01:18:14,800
So it's cycle length agnostic. 
So am I so I look more at what 

1507
01:18:14,800 --> 01:18:16,640
quantile we're at than what day 
it is. 

1508
01:18:17,480 --> 01:18:21,360
You know, if, if the quantile, 
if we're only at quantile 75 and

1509
01:18:21,360 --> 01:18:24,800
it's at the end of the year, 
maybe, you know, maybe we extend

1510
01:18:24,800 --> 01:18:28,520
till next year, who knows. 
So that's kind of more how I see

1511
01:18:28,520 --> 01:18:30,720
it as far as a place to to look 
at this. 

1512
01:18:30,720 --> 01:18:32,000
Yeah, I'm going to have it up on
the site. 

1513
01:18:32,000 --> 01:18:35,200
You can follow me on my ex 
account for updates, but I will 

1514
01:18:35,200 --> 01:18:38,720
have it on the site and I'll 
have multiple being able to zoom

1515
01:18:38,720 --> 01:18:41,160
in the so it's, you know, other 
ways of seeing it. 

1516
01:18:41,320 --> 01:18:44,240
This is the full, full history. 
But I also want to show like, 

1517
01:18:44,440 --> 01:18:47,440
OK, the next year, you know, the
the last five years maybe or 

1518
01:18:47,440 --> 01:18:49,160
whatever, right? 
Have a couple different versions

1519
01:18:49,160 --> 01:18:52,560
of this. 
And, and also I want to have it 

1520
01:18:52,560 --> 01:18:56,480
so that people can put in the 
day and the quantile and it will

1521
01:18:56,480 --> 01:18:58,840
tell them the number. 
So whatever. 

1522
01:18:58,960 --> 01:19:01,880
So that way you can say it and, 
and this is totally possible to 

1523
01:19:01,880 --> 01:19:03,520
create. 
I just have to do some coding. 

1524
01:19:03,520 --> 01:19:08,920
But basically you can say 
January 1st, 2030, 57th 

1525
01:19:08,920 --> 01:19:10,640
quantile, what's the, what's the
number, right? 

1526
01:19:10,640 --> 01:19:13,200
So it's just kind of like a fun 
tool and, and people can do with

1527
01:19:13,200 --> 01:19:15,440
what they want. 
But that way you can kind of get

1528
01:19:15,440 --> 01:19:18,360
more, use it for whatever you 
want to use it for. 

1529
01:19:18,360 --> 01:19:19,800
But yeah, we'll be on a site for
free. 

1530
01:19:20,360 --> 01:19:20,920
Awesome. 
Yeah. 

1531
01:19:21,080 --> 01:19:24,120
What I really liked is that you 
said, you know, if you have to 

1532
01:19:24,120 --> 01:19:27,880
sell or you think you want to 
sell, this is a tool where you 

1533
01:19:27,880 --> 01:19:32,040
can check if you are OK with 
selling at this moment, 

1534
01:19:32,040 --> 01:19:35,640
basically, right and and just 
make that decision by yourself. 

1535
01:19:35,640 --> 01:19:38,520
But then you actually understand
where we are, where, where we 

1536
01:19:38,520 --> 01:19:42,960
are and, and have a historical 
perspective and maybe make a 

1537
01:19:42,960 --> 01:19:46,920
conscious decision now or say, 
like, OK, I, I can, I can wait 

1538
01:19:46,920 --> 01:19:52,840
for three more months. 
And I'm going to keep this, this

1539
01:19:53,960 --> 01:19:57,800
this certain time frame in mind 
and and look it up then on your 

1540
01:19:57,800 --> 01:20:02,520
website right to kind of time. 
Whenever you would want to sell,

1541
01:20:02,520 --> 01:20:05,200
if you want or maybe even need 
to sell, that's. 

1542
01:20:05,200 --> 01:20:08,000
Well, that's well said. 
Yeah, there's like some huge 

1543
01:20:08,000 --> 01:20:11,360
important purchase. 
I mean, I hate to say this, but 

1544
01:20:11,360 --> 01:20:14,240
I think it's a very. 
I think a lot of people can 

1545
01:20:14,240 --> 01:20:20,440
relate to this. 
Sometimes there's there's every 

1546
01:20:20,760 --> 01:20:23,760
so so naturally in 
relationships, a lot of people 

1547
01:20:23,760 --> 01:20:26,000
are relationships, There's a 
there's going to be some push 

1548
01:20:26,000 --> 01:20:27,800
and pull around these sorts of 
things, right. 

1549
01:20:28,240 --> 01:20:31,800
And so you can, you know, 
potentially a tool to say to 

1550
01:20:31,880 --> 01:20:34,080
show to your partner, guy or 
girl, whatever. 

1551
01:20:34,400 --> 01:20:36,240
Look, this is the long term 
pattern. 

1552
01:20:36,240 --> 01:20:38,400
Where do you think we're in blue
right now? 

1553
01:20:38,400 --> 01:20:41,320
Do we want to sell our Bitcoin? 
Can we hold off a couple more 

1554
01:20:41,320 --> 01:20:43,440
years to buy that dream house or
whatever? 

1555
01:20:43,600 --> 01:20:46,960
Wait till we're at least in like
the top 50% top, you know? 

1556
01:20:47,240 --> 01:20:49,400
So I think that's just kind of 
how I see it, right? 

1557
01:20:49,400 --> 01:20:52,680
Like you could potentially eke 
out a bit more of a window to 

1558
01:20:52,680 --> 01:20:55,360
kind of hold off on some of 
those things that people 

1559
01:20:55,360 --> 01:20:59,880
inevitably will buy. 
So yeah, I think that kind of 

1560
01:20:59,880 --> 01:21:05,880
summarizes it decently. 
And yeah, I don't know whether I

1561
01:21:05,880 --> 01:21:08,680
guess for yourself personally. 
I mean, you said you're a long 

1562
01:21:08,680 --> 01:21:12,520
term holder, so this is just 
strictly conviction tool for 

1563
01:21:12,520 --> 01:21:13,680
you. 
Like do you see yourself? 

1564
01:21:13,680 --> 01:21:15,960
I mean, you don't have to share 
your personal stuff, but would 

1565
01:21:15,960 --> 01:21:19,760
you ever use anything like this 
to if you had something you 

1566
01:21:19,760 --> 01:21:21,280
needed to? 
Yeah. 

1567
01:21:21,280 --> 01:21:25,120
I think, I think I would use it 
like how I just described it to 

1568
01:21:25,120 --> 01:21:28,760
be honest. 
So, and I think definitely now, 

1569
01:21:28,760 --> 01:21:34,760
now, now that we're moving more 
towards yeah, there's 

1570
01:21:34,760 --> 01:21:37,440
progression of, of the cycle, 
right? 

1571
01:21:37,440 --> 01:21:41,080
I think just, I mean, today I 
published an episode with with 

1572
01:21:41,080 --> 01:21:43,960
Nico Moran where we talked about
are the cycles dead, right. 

1573
01:21:43,960 --> 01:21:46,440
Like is there anything that's 
going to change? 

1574
01:21:46,440 --> 01:21:49,720
I and again, I think that kind 
of bumps heads with what we're 

1575
01:21:49,720 --> 01:21:52,120
talking about here. 
So I find that very interesting 

1576
01:21:52,960 --> 01:21:56,480
because, yeah, you can logically
argue a lot of things around 

1577
01:21:56,480 --> 01:21:59,240
cycle being dead. 
You know, Internet demands all 

1578
01:21:59,240 --> 01:22:00,760
the things that I said and this 
is the math. 

1579
01:22:00,760 --> 01:22:04,400
So I think having these 
different types of tools and 

1580
01:22:04,480 --> 01:22:08,560
reasoning can help you to yeah, 
what I just said, see where 

1581
01:22:08,560 --> 01:22:10,840
you're at, see how comfortable 
you are. 

1582
01:22:10,840 --> 01:22:12,840
Do I want to huddle? 
Do I want to sell a bit? 

1583
01:22:13,600 --> 01:22:19,120
And I think also those. 
Yeah, those ideas can change 

1584
01:22:19,120 --> 01:22:22,400
over time depending how your 
life goes or where you're at or 

1585
01:22:22,400 --> 01:22:24,280
what you need to do or whatever,
right. 

1586
01:22:24,280 --> 01:22:27,840
So I think that this is 
definitely helpful because you 

1587
01:22:27,840 --> 01:22:32,680
know, in I don't know when you 
know, I always share, I bought 

1588
01:22:32,680 --> 01:22:35,360
between 100 and 300 and I sold 
at 4000. 

1589
01:22:35,360 --> 01:22:38,000
I have no clue if 4000 was a 
great price, right? 

1590
01:22:38,320 --> 01:22:42,200
And like now I could actually 
check if I'm OK with selling it 

1591
01:22:42,520 --> 01:22:48,800
in this percentile basic 
basically, and then also feel 

1592
01:22:48,800 --> 01:22:53,640
good about perhaps selling it 
for something else like a live 

1593
01:22:53,640 --> 01:22:56,600
upgrade or or whatever, right? 
So I think, I think it's just a 

1594
01:22:56,600 --> 01:23:00,800
very, very useful tool to help 
you make a conscious decision 

1595
01:23:00,800 --> 01:23:03,280
about whether you want to sell 
it or not at this moment. 

1596
01:23:03,280 --> 01:23:05,320
So. 
Yeah, it gives you some sort of 

1597
01:23:05,320 --> 01:23:07,800
reference point other than just 
watching the price every day 

1598
01:23:07,800 --> 01:23:11,600
just bounce up and down and a 
million TA charts on on X saying

1599
01:23:11,600 --> 01:23:14,080
we're going up, we're going 
down, deleting their posts, 

1600
01:23:14,080 --> 01:23:15,880
whatever. 
Like there's there's so much 

1601
01:23:15,880 --> 01:23:18,360
noise in the chart space as far 
as people saying, oh, we're 

1602
01:23:18,360 --> 01:23:20,240
going to whatever and then you 
know. 

1603
01:23:20,600 --> 01:23:25,680
So yeah, I mean, just just on 
the cycle thing really quickly 

1604
01:23:25,680 --> 01:23:29,400
because you mentioned it, the 
cycle could be dead and this 

1605
01:23:29,400 --> 01:23:32,080
this model could still hold. 
That is actually possible. 

1606
01:23:32,400 --> 01:23:35,080
It doesn't require there to be 
necessarily a cycle. 

1607
01:23:35,080 --> 01:23:38,520
Now, you know, if we just keep 
going up and to the right 

1608
01:23:38,520 --> 01:23:41,480
steeply, we're probably, you 
know, going to go out of the 

1609
01:23:41,480 --> 01:23:44,280
range. 
But if we do kind of stair step 

1610
01:23:44,280 --> 01:23:48,120
up and and and kind of crab 
sideways for longer periods, but

1611
01:23:48,120 --> 01:23:51,080
still it's up and to the right 
with not necessarily like a 

1612
01:23:51,080 --> 01:23:54,520
crazy bearish multi year major 
pullback, right. 

1613
01:23:54,840 --> 01:23:58,480
That doesn't have to happen for 
this model to still hold because

1614
01:23:58,840 --> 01:24:02,800
as, as time goes on, you know, 
the numbers we are the, the 

1615
01:24:02,800 --> 01:24:05,000
patterns are up. 
So there's different very, 

1616
01:24:05,000 --> 01:24:07,400
there's various ways of, of 
creating that pattern of up. 

1617
01:24:07,400 --> 01:24:11,360
You can have these sharp drops, 
huge bull markets or you can 

1618
01:24:11,360 --> 01:24:15,280
have more of just a sideways 
crab to bull that extends for 

1619
01:24:15,280 --> 01:24:17,320
years. 
And it's not, I'm not ruling 

1620
01:24:17,320 --> 01:24:18,680
that out. 
I don't want to rule out 

1621
01:24:18,680 --> 01:24:20,800
anything. 
We have very few data points. 

1622
01:24:21,320 --> 01:24:24,640
We're seeing some unique things 
this cycle, extended 

1623
01:24:25,080 --> 01:24:27,200
consolidation period. 
So I'm I'm not really at 

1624
01:24:27,200 --> 01:24:29,160
anything. 
The cool thing about quantile 

1625
01:24:29,160 --> 01:24:32,600
regressions and using this type 
of a model is every single new 

1626
01:24:32,600 --> 01:24:35,880
data point, If I'm updating this
hourly, it does update. 

1627
01:24:35,880 --> 01:24:38,880
So meaning every data point that
comes in is factored in. 

1628
01:24:38,880 --> 01:24:42,160
Now it's one of 130,000 plus 
data points. 

1629
01:24:42,160 --> 01:24:44,600
So each new data point has 
relatively small influence. 

1630
01:24:44,800 --> 01:24:47,840
However, the the higher data 
points might have a little bit 

1631
01:24:47,840 --> 01:24:50,360
more influence of in that in 
that range. 

1632
01:24:50,360 --> 01:24:54,920
So there are potential micro 
adjustments over time, which is 

1633
01:24:54,920 --> 01:24:56,560
what you want. 
You want it to be a somewhat 

1634
01:24:56,560 --> 01:25:00,760
adaptive to new data. 
So even though you can't use 

1635
01:25:00,760 --> 01:25:03,800
data from the future, you know, 
people say, well, this is only 

1636
01:25:03,800 --> 01:25:06,280
based on the past data. 
Well, it's impossible to do any 

1637
01:25:06,280 --> 01:25:08,640
analysis on future data. 
If you have a time machine or 

1638
01:25:08,640 --> 01:25:11,480
you have a way of, of using 
future data, that's awesome. 

1639
01:25:11,480 --> 01:25:12,960
You'd be the best analyst in the
world. 

1640
01:25:13,200 --> 01:25:16,040
But the reality is we only have 
the data we have, which is the 

1641
01:25:16,040 --> 01:25:19,400
past. 
And so we, we as, as the model 

1642
01:25:19,400 --> 01:25:22,840
goes, it will incorporate in new
data points and, and I did that 

1643
01:25:22,840 --> 01:25:26,280
intentionally. 
I wanted it to be dynamic and 

1644
01:25:26,280 --> 01:25:29,320
but the patterns, you know, 
again, we already have 15 years 

1645
01:25:29,320 --> 01:25:31,680
plus of data. 
So building micro adjustments, 

1646
01:25:31,680 --> 01:25:34,800
this is kind of the trend, but 
it will factor, factor in new 

1647
01:25:35,160 --> 01:25:37,400
data as we go as well. 
Yeah, yeah. 

1648
01:25:37,400 --> 01:25:44,720
What I really like, and maybe 
also that is that is interesting

1649
01:25:44,720 --> 01:25:46,200
in the discussion in general, 
right? 

1650
01:25:46,200 --> 01:25:50,200
Like this is like you're saying,
this is based on what we have 

1651
01:25:50,200 --> 01:25:52,400
and what we know. 
And the same is with the power 

1652
01:25:52,400 --> 01:25:54,880
law. 
It is based on what we have and 

1653
01:25:54,880 --> 01:25:57,160
what we know. 
It is the the power law is not 

1654
01:25:57,160 --> 01:25:58,920
an opinion. 
I say to people, right? 

1655
01:25:58,920 --> 01:26:02,680
It's it's math. 
It's just showing the apparent 

1656
01:26:02,680 --> 01:26:05,800
discovery of a power law. 
And this is how Bitcoin behaves.

1657
01:26:06,280 --> 01:26:08,600
And it's not only price over 
time, right? 

1658
01:26:08,720 --> 01:26:11,320
It's even hash rate, the number 
of wallets. 

1659
01:26:11,640 --> 01:26:16,440
I think there's like 6 or 7 of 
of, of these characteristics 

1660
01:26:16,440 --> 01:26:20,640
that you can eventually plot 
them on a, on a power law. 

1661
01:26:20,840 --> 01:26:25,120
The signal for me is actually, 
OK, that's very interesting 

1662
01:26:25,120 --> 01:26:29,840
because this is not, this is not
a random thing. 

1663
01:26:29,840 --> 01:26:32,680
There's not, there's, there's 
definitely not something random 

1664
01:26:32,680 --> 01:26:36,400
happening, which I think is a 
very positive signal. 

1665
01:26:37,280 --> 01:26:42,480
But again, it's kind of clashes 
with OK, can you, should you 

1666
01:26:42,480 --> 01:26:45,920
then like only look back and say
where we are or can you also 

1667
01:26:45,920 --> 01:26:47,800
project towards the future? 
Right. 

1668
01:26:48,000 --> 01:26:51,600
And I think that projection 
towards the future is where some

1669
01:26:51,600 --> 01:26:56,760
people find it difficult, yeah, 
to kind of like visualize that 

1670
01:26:56,760 --> 01:26:59,880
or accept that also because. 
And this is one of the questions

1671
01:26:59,880 --> 01:27:03,440
that I wanted to ask you. 
You know, we have a popular meme

1672
01:27:03,440 --> 01:27:05,360
which is all your models will be
destroyed. 

1673
01:27:05,360 --> 01:27:09,640
And I think that often, like I 
mentioned before, that points to

1674
01:27:09,640 --> 01:27:12,920
the idea of the finite supply, 
massive demand, you know, and 

1675
01:27:12,920 --> 01:27:16,160
like infinite demand that could 
trigger supply shock that breaks

1676
01:27:16,160 --> 01:27:20,720
all the models that. 
Yeah, look at the past and then 

1677
01:27:21,720 --> 01:27:23,640
sort of project towards the 
future, right? 

1678
01:27:23,640 --> 01:27:26,760
So I think that is valid. 
Again, I mentioned that before, 

1679
01:27:26,760 --> 01:27:29,600
but yeah, how do you think about
that? 

1680
01:27:29,600 --> 01:27:32,480
Are you? 
I don't think you are, but I 

1681
01:27:32,480 --> 01:27:35,520
think people that discuss these 
mathematical models are like, 

1682
01:27:35,520 --> 01:27:38,200
no, these guys are very rigid 
and they're numbers and blah, 

1683
01:27:38,200 --> 01:27:39,360
blah. 
Like this could definitely 

1684
01:27:39,360 --> 01:27:42,840
happen. 
Like if you have the chance as 

1685
01:27:42,840 --> 01:27:45,480
the numbers guide to share 
thoughts around this, like what?

1686
01:27:45,480 --> 01:27:47,040
What would you say? 
For sure. 

1687
01:27:47,040 --> 01:27:49,400
I mean, I think there's a 
certain percentage of people 

1688
01:27:49,400 --> 01:27:52,720
that are just kind of opposed to
modeling Bitcoin, which is 

1689
01:27:52,720 --> 01:27:56,560
completely fine for whatever 
reason, You know, there could be

1690
01:27:56,560 --> 01:27:59,400
a various, various reasons for 
that, but they just it, it's 

1691
01:27:59,400 --> 01:28:02,440
kind of like this is my baby. 
This is my discovery. 

1692
01:28:02,440 --> 01:28:04,200
I I found this thing earlier, 
whatever. 

1693
01:28:04,200 --> 01:28:06,600
And I've invested a lot of money
and they don't like the idea of 

1694
01:28:06,600 --> 01:28:09,200
someone trying to put it in some
sort of a mathematical box or 

1695
01:28:09,200 --> 01:28:11,720
framework. 
So there is a, a percentage of 

1696
01:28:11,720 --> 01:28:13,680
people are just opposed to 
models in general. 

1697
01:28:14,560 --> 01:28:19,560
What I would say is, I mean it's
not just the math, the, it's a 

1698
01:28:19,560 --> 01:28:23,880
combination of the math and then
also just using for me anyways, 

1699
01:28:23,880 --> 01:28:26,200
it's, it's looking at actual 
networks. 

1700
01:28:26,200 --> 01:28:30,160
So because Bitcoin is really a 
network of networks and it is a 

1701
01:28:30,160 --> 01:28:34,320
network you can actually look 
at, there's actually research 

1702
01:28:34,320 --> 01:28:39,400
studies you can use AI to, to 
take large amounts of data. 

1703
01:28:39,400 --> 01:28:42,720
So I have the, the top 
subscription to chat UV2 pro or 

1704
01:28:42,720 --> 01:28:44,720
whatever. 
And you can do a lot of research

1705
01:28:44,720 --> 01:28:46,240
with it. 
There's two different, different

1706
01:28:46,240 --> 01:28:49,440
tools where you can essentially 
it'll be searching for like 5-10

1707
01:28:49,440 --> 01:28:51,960
minutes. 
It'll pull from hundreds of, of 

1708
01:28:51,960 --> 01:28:54,760
resources and you can ask it 
very interesting questions 

1709
01:28:54,760 --> 01:28:58,720
around, you know, network 
adoption, power law, stretched 

1710
01:28:58,720 --> 01:29:01,520
exponential decay. 
And the thing that's very 

1711
01:29:01,520 --> 01:29:04,880
interesting for me is it 
logically makes sense for it to 

1712
01:29:04,880 --> 01:29:07,760
be following this mathematical 
pattern because what you have is

1713
01:29:07,760 --> 01:29:11,560
a network that is gaining 
adoption over time and that 

1714
01:29:11,560 --> 01:29:15,400
network is stabilizing and the 
volatility is trending down as 

1715
01:29:15,400 --> 01:29:19,640
the network stabilizes. 
And so, and actually a power log

1716
01:29:19,640 --> 01:29:22,920
growth pattern for the, for the,
the kind of the base bottom, 

1717
01:29:23,560 --> 01:29:27,120
there's actually a ton of 
examples where you have a power 

1718
01:29:27,120 --> 01:29:28,760
law. 
People, people focus so much on 

1719
01:29:28,760 --> 01:29:31,600
the power law element. 
And I and I get that, but 

1720
01:29:31,600 --> 01:29:35,240
actually exponential decay and 
stretched exponential decay are,

1721
01:29:35,280 --> 01:29:37,920
are actually the most common 
pattern to see with the power 

1722
01:29:37,920 --> 01:29:39,040
law. 
And they're actually 

1723
01:29:39,040 --> 01:29:41,320
interdependent. 
So you can't really have one 

1724
01:29:41,320 --> 01:29:44,040
without the other. 
So if the diminishing returns of

1725
01:29:44,040 --> 01:29:46,920
the peaks breaks, we actually 
will probably see the power law 

1726
01:29:46,920 --> 01:29:49,440
break as well. 
I actually think they're very 

1727
01:29:49,440 --> 01:29:52,800
much interrelated. 
And so we focused a lot on the 

1728
01:29:52,800 --> 01:29:57,840
power law, but again, this, this
modeling of the top 50%, this 

1729
01:29:57,840 --> 01:30:02,880
this exponential slash stretched
exponential decay is it's a very

1730
01:30:02,880 --> 01:30:05,400
common pattern you see in a 
network getting adoption 

1731
01:30:05,400 --> 01:30:07,800
stabilizing over time. 
And you can look at networks in 

1732
01:30:07,800 --> 01:30:11,160
various, in various fields. 
So I did quite a bit of research

1733
01:30:11,160 --> 01:30:14,360
on, on that and just kind of 
looking at the common, the most 

1734
01:30:14,360 --> 01:30:18,360
highest probability mathematical
patterns that we see. 

1735
01:30:18,600 --> 01:30:21,480
And if you describe Bitcoin and 
what it is and you do a lot of 

1736
01:30:21,480 --> 01:30:25,960
deep research on it, it's 
actually the first probable 

1737
01:30:25,960 --> 01:30:28,440
thing that comes up that it 
follows a power lot and it has a

1738
01:30:28,440 --> 01:30:30,920
stretched exponential decay. 
They're the most commonly seen 

1739
01:30:30,920 --> 01:30:34,440
together. 
And so it and this is what the 

1740
01:30:34,440 --> 01:30:37,320
math shows. 
So like, I mean, it's, it's just

1741
01:30:37,320 --> 01:30:39,000
really interesting to be on many
levels. 

1742
01:30:39,000 --> 01:30:44,760
And so now we've seen black 
Swans to the downside and this 

1743
01:30:44,760 --> 01:30:48,360
is held. 
We haven't necessarily seen a 

1744
01:30:48,360 --> 01:30:52,840
full white swan to the upside. 
So I, I still hold out that this

1745
01:30:52,840 --> 01:30:55,600
could break. 
I'm not rigid in in as much time

1746
01:30:55,600 --> 01:30:58,800
as I put on this. 
Obviously, if we breakthrough 

1747
01:30:58,800 --> 01:31:01,280
the top of this model, I'll be 
thrilled. 

1748
01:31:01,360 --> 01:31:05,200
Like if I'm if I'm proven wrong 
or whatever, like my, I don't 

1749
01:31:05,240 --> 01:31:08,400
really care that much about it. 
I'd, I'd rather us break the 

1750
01:31:08,400 --> 01:31:10,200
upside and follow some other 
pattern. 

1751
01:31:11,520 --> 01:31:13,600
And then how about the model 
break? 

1752
01:31:13,600 --> 01:31:15,680
But then obviously, you know, 
I'm, I'm going to make a good 

1753
01:31:15,680 --> 01:31:19,680
amount of money. 
So for me, yeah, maybe there's a

1754
01:31:19,680 --> 01:31:22,920
a white swan that's significant 
enough that we do see this 

1755
01:31:22,920 --> 01:31:25,800
pattern break for the upside. 
If the pattern on the upside 

1756
01:31:25,800 --> 01:31:28,160
breaks, I think the power law 
will break on the downside part 

1757
01:31:28,160 --> 01:31:31,360
of the the bands as well. 
And you know, what would be the 

1758
01:31:31,360 --> 01:31:32,760
trigger for this white swan 
event? 

1759
01:31:32,840 --> 01:31:35,960
I mean, there's many people can 
have their own views on what 

1760
01:31:35,960 --> 01:31:40,240
could trigger that, but probably
a transition away from, from 

1761
01:31:40,240 --> 01:31:43,840
Fiat to, to, to an extent that 
there's like a whole, you know, 

1762
01:31:45,640 --> 01:31:48,200
like complete change of the 
whole system, right. 

1763
01:31:48,200 --> 01:31:50,920
So, you know, that's not 
necessarily going to happen 

1764
01:31:50,920 --> 01:31:52,520
overnight. 
I, I think given the, the 

1765
01:31:52,520 --> 01:31:56,360
players involved globally, these
sorts of things will take place 

1766
01:31:56,360 --> 01:32:00,000
over at least a period of years.
So that's where I, I'm not, you 

1767
01:32:00,000 --> 01:32:03,440
know, convinced that all of a 
sudden one day everyone's just 

1768
01:32:03,440 --> 01:32:06,280
going to start buying Bitcoin. 
Because The thing is it, it, 

1769
01:32:06,280 --> 01:32:10,560
it's with money, the adoption, 
it takes a while for people to 

1770
01:32:10,560 --> 01:32:12,480
have the conviction, right? 
It's different when you're 

1771
01:32:12,480 --> 01:32:15,680
signing up for a social media 
app, OK, I can put in my login 

1772
01:32:15,680 --> 01:32:17,320
information. 
This there's a pretty low 

1773
01:32:17,320 --> 01:32:20,160
barrier to entry when it comes 
to putting a significant amount 

1774
01:32:20,160 --> 01:32:24,200
of your, your life time and 
energy into an asset class. 

1775
01:32:24,520 --> 01:32:25,840
People don't tend to do that 
overnight. 

1776
01:32:25,840 --> 01:32:28,000
They kind of dabble, OK, they 
learn more, they're going to put

1777
01:32:28,000 --> 01:32:29,880
a higher percentage in. 
OK, they learn a bit more, I'm 

1778
01:32:29,880 --> 01:32:32,400
going to put a bit more in. 
It tends to be a process. 

1779
01:32:32,400 --> 01:32:36,400
And that's why I think this 
adoption will continue and not 

1780
01:32:36,400 --> 01:32:39,080
in necessarily a overnight 
parabolic way. 

1781
01:32:39,320 --> 01:32:42,280
However, there could be and just
wrap it up, there could be white

1782
01:32:42,280 --> 01:32:45,520
swan events that contribute to 
periods of time where we do see 

1783
01:32:45,520 --> 01:32:50,040
increases in adoption, right. 
And, but naturally things will 

1784
01:32:50,040 --> 01:32:53,880
probably kind of come back down.
So yeah, it'll be fascinating. 

1785
01:32:53,880 --> 01:32:56,240
We'll have to do updates over 
the course of months and, and 

1786
01:32:56,240 --> 01:32:59,840
kind of see where we're at. 
But yeah, for people who want to

1787
01:32:59,840 --> 01:33:02,800
follow along on the quantile 
model, just follow me on X. 

1788
01:33:02,800 --> 01:33:05,400
And then like I said, I'll have 
a website and then we can maybe 

1789
01:33:05,400 --> 01:33:08,200
do another interview down the 
road if you want and, and 

1790
01:33:08,200 --> 01:33:10,720
revisit it and, and see, see how
it plays out. 

1791
01:33:10,720 --> 01:33:12,600
I mean, the fun thing is we're 
going to know within a couple 

1792
01:33:12,600 --> 01:33:17,960
months to a year probably we'll 
be visiting those top quantiles 

1793
01:33:17,960 --> 01:33:20,240
potentially. 
So we'll be able to see how it 

1794
01:33:20,240 --> 01:33:22,080
holds up. 
Yeah. 

1795
01:33:22,320 --> 01:33:26,160
Well, I, I think this was very 
fascinating and very helpful 

1796
01:33:26,160 --> 01:33:31,440
also to, to learn about this. 
Again, I think it's a, it's a 

1797
01:33:31,440 --> 01:33:34,760
great tool to understand where 
you're at and then, you know, be

1798
01:33:34,760 --> 01:33:36,160
able to make a conscious 
decision. 

1799
01:33:36,160 --> 01:33:38,320
So I think that's absolutely 
fantastic. 

1800
01:33:38,320 --> 01:33:42,440
Of course, I will link to your X
account in the description below

1801
01:33:42,440 --> 01:33:47,080
so people can follow you and 
then to, to know when your 

1802
01:33:47,080 --> 01:33:49,560
website is going to be live. 
So thanks a lot. 

1803
01:33:49,560 --> 01:33:50,920
I thought it was very 
insightful. 

1804
01:33:50,920 --> 01:33:54,760
And yeah, I just want to ask you
my last question, a bit bit 

1805
01:33:54,760 --> 01:33:57,840
unrelated to what we talked 
about, but I ask everyone the 

1806
01:33:57,840 --> 01:34:01,640
same question, question at the 
end, which is what is a core 

1807
01:34:01,640 --> 01:34:03,720
belief that you will never let 
go of. 

1808
01:34:05,680 --> 01:34:09,200
I like that question. 
Oh, I'm a bit of a philosophical

1809
01:34:09,200 --> 01:34:11,760
minded person. 
OK, what comes to mind? 

1810
01:34:11,800 --> 01:34:14,320
A core belief that I will never 
let go of. 

1811
01:34:15,400 --> 01:34:20,320
Wow. 
Off the top of my off the cuff, 

1812
01:34:20,320 --> 01:34:25,680
I would say like there is a, a a
frequency of, of, of deep love 

1813
01:34:25,680 --> 01:34:29,320
and good that exists in some 
whatever you wanted to find this

1814
01:34:29,320 --> 01:34:35,480
realm is it's it's not just doom
and gloom low frequency, you 

1815
01:34:35,480 --> 01:34:40,000
know, evil. 
There is a, a very strong and 

1816
01:34:40,000 --> 01:34:44,160
that is the default in my 
personal belief is the default 

1817
01:34:44,480 --> 01:34:49,520
of of whatever dimensional 
massive, whatever you want to 

1818
01:34:49,520 --> 01:34:52,520
define, you know, whatever lens 
you want to use to define this 

1819
01:34:52,520 --> 01:34:55,160
existence of simulation or 
whatever a quantum physics, 

1820
01:34:55,160 --> 01:34:58,200
whatever, whatever this is that 
we're experiencing and whatever 

1821
01:34:58,200 --> 01:35:00,720
the vastness of, of dimensions 
are. 

1822
01:35:01,200 --> 01:35:08,840
I think the the default is is an
experience of there there is 

1823
01:35:08,840 --> 01:35:13,160
some sort of of loved is just a 
word to define it or a, a high 

1824
01:35:13,160 --> 01:35:16,560
frequency or a a good. 
However, you know, it's hard to 

1825
01:35:16,560 --> 01:35:18,000
find a words, but there's 
something there. 

1826
01:35:18,000 --> 01:35:21,400
And then there's deviations from
this to kind of get a spectrum 

1827
01:35:21,400 --> 01:35:25,840
where we can have growth, growth
experiences from any sort of 

1828
01:35:26,200 --> 01:35:28,720
whatever avatar likes simulated 
realities. 

1829
01:35:28,720 --> 01:35:31,600
I don't know, but there is a 
contrast from that. 

1830
01:35:31,600 --> 01:35:34,680
But I think the default is, is 
is really good. 

1831
01:35:34,680 --> 01:35:38,760
And, and, and, and we've signed 
up potentially for some sort of 

1832
01:35:38,760 --> 01:35:42,120
an experience, but I don't 
think, you know, as much as 

1833
01:35:42,120 --> 01:35:44,320
people watch the news and 
everything's always bad. 

1834
01:35:44,320 --> 01:35:49,280
And I mean, whatever for me to 
think that there's only, you 

1835
01:35:49,280 --> 01:35:52,040
know, evil and it's all just 
whatever. 

1836
01:35:52,040 --> 01:35:54,800
That's the dominant thing that 
exists at the core. 

1837
01:35:54,800 --> 01:35:57,000
No, it, it's the opposite. 
It has to be. 

1838
01:35:57,080 --> 01:35:58,960
That's the only thing that I'll 
hold on to. 

1839
01:36:00,680 --> 01:36:02,360
Fantastic. 
Thanks for sharing. 

1840
01:36:02,360 --> 01:36:05,400
I think the people listening 
know that I very much agree with

1841
01:36:05,400 --> 01:36:06,600
you. 
Thank you so much. 

1842
01:36:06,600 --> 01:36:09,400
Thanks for your time. 
I hope people found it valuable.

1843
01:36:09,400 --> 01:36:12,120
And yeah, we'll stay in touch. 
We'll do this again and see 

1844
01:36:12,160 --> 01:36:13,600
where we're at. 
Awesome. 

1845
01:36:13,640 --> 01:36:15,280
Thanks very much. 
All right, man, Have a great 

1846
01:36:15,320 --> 01:36:15,880
day. 
Yeah, take. 

1847
01:36:15,880 --> 01:36:17,320
Care. 
I hope you enjoyed this episode.

1848
01:36:17,400 --> 01:36:20,640
If you did, you can click here 
to find more just like it and 

1849
01:36:20,640 --> 01:36:23,560
click here to find all Bitcoin 
for millennials podcast 

1850
01:36:23,640 --> 01:36:26,560
episodes. 
Also please like this video if 

1851
01:36:26,560 --> 01:36:28,360
you want to help. 
Shine a light on the message of 

1852
01:36:28,360 --> 01:36:30,600
Bitcoin and subscribe to my 
channel to stay. 

1853
01:36:30,680 --> 01:36:32,960
They connected. 
I hope to see you for a next 

1854
01:36:32,960 --> 01:36:33,920
episode. 
Bye.