1
00:00:00,040 --> 00:00:03,880
Why is Bitcoin currently up 50% 
against gold since March, even 

2
00:00:03,880 --> 00:00:06,120
though retail interest feels 
completely. 

3
00:00:06,120 --> 00:00:09,760
Dead doctor Jeff Ross is back on
Bitcoin for millennials to 

4
00:00:09,760 --> 00:00:13,520
unpack the divergent between 
paper financial assets and hard,

5
00:00:13,520 --> 00:00:16,440
sound money. 
We dive deep into why Bitcoin is

6
00:00:16,440 --> 00:00:19,880
currently in a coiled spring and
how institutional rotation is 

7
00:00:19,880 --> 00:00:23,480
shifting away from tech stocks 
and back into the hardest money 

8
00:00:23,480 --> 00:00:26,120
to ever exist. 
And wait until you hear Jeff's 

9
00:00:26,120 --> 00:00:29,360
crazy prediction for the next 
three years that traditional 

10
00:00:29,360 --> 00:00:31,520
finance is is completely 
ignoring. 

11
00:00:31,920 --> 00:00:34,560
If you're enjoying my content, 
it would mean a lot to me if you

12
00:00:34,560 --> 00:00:37,880
could subscribe to the channel 
and like my video to support my 

13
00:00:37,880 --> 00:00:39,120
journey. 
Thanks a lot. 

14
00:00:39,280 --> 00:00:41,640
Now let's dive in to this 
episode. 

15
00:00:44,280 --> 00:00:47,400
All right, Doctor Jeff Ross, 
welcome back to Bitcoin for 

16
00:00:47,400 --> 00:00:48,840
Millennials. 
Thanks, Bram. 

17
00:00:48,840 --> 00:00:52,080
Thanks for having me. 
Yeah, good to have you back on. 

18
00:00:52,080 --> 00:00:56,880
I think last time was was over a
year ago and a lot of stuff has 

19
00:00:56,880 --> 00:00:59,520
happened. 
So I'm excited to to talk with 

20
00:00:59,520 --> 00:01:04,319
you again. 
You know last time we spoke your

21
00:01:04,319 --> 00:01:06,840
models and and you know, your 
thoughts around Bitcoin 

22
00:01:06,840 --> 00:01:10,240
suggested a really massive peak 
in 2025. 

23
00:01:11,200 --> 00:01:15,920
We went to 126 back to the low 
60s at time of recording we're 

24
00:01:15,920 --> 00:01:21,920
at like 8081 K, but like not the
exponential move yet. 

25
00:01:21,920 --> 00:01:26,120
What what do you think that you 
or like other models missed or 

26
00:01:26,120 --> 00:01:29,200
like are we too optimistic? 
Like what? 

27
00:01:29,200 --> 00:01:31,240
What? 
What didn't you catch basically?

28
00:01:31,640 --> 00:01:34,960
Sure. 
So what I had expected was that 

29
00:01:34,960 --> 00:01:38,920
we would have a similar business
cycle like we have had basically

30
00:01:38,920 --> 00:01:41,760
since the global financial 
crisis back in 2009. 

31
00:01:42,360 --> 00:01:46,520
So what that means is that if if
you look at long term Bitcoin 

32
00:01:46,520 --> 00:01:50,160
charts, it tends to follow 
global liquidity and it also 

33
00:01:50,160 --> 00:01:54,080
follows the economy. 
So economic cycles, which have 

34
00:01:54,080 --> 00:01:56,120
also basically run in four year 
cycles. 

35
00:01:56,120 --> 00:02:00,000
And specifically for whatever 
reason, it, the price closely 

36
00:02:00,000 --> 00:02:04,280
follows the manufacturing around
the world and especially in the 

37
00:02:04,440 --> 00:02:06,880
US. 
So US manufacturing PMI for 

38
00:02:06,880 --> 00:02:09,919
whatever reason, is very 
correlated with the price of 

39
00:02:09,919 --> 00:02:12,640
Bitcoin, I think because 
manufacturing, the way I, I 

40
00:02:12,720 --> 00:02:16,960
think about this in my mind is 
manufacturing is physical labor,

41
00:02:16,960 --> 00:02:20,800
is proof of actual work, it's 
expending energy to make things.

42
00:02:21,160 --> 00:02:24,200
And Bitcoin is actual proof of 
work, energy, money. 

43
00:02:24,480 --> 00:02:26,920
And so I think for whatever 
reason, there's a correlation 

44
00:02:26,920 --> 00:02:29,840
between these two things. 
So that's just that's how I 

45
00:02:29,840 --> 00:02:31,280
think about it. 
So why? 

46
00:02:31,280 --> 00:02:37,400
So what happened in 2025 for 
basically from 2022 through 

47
00:02:37,400 --> 00:02:42,720
2025, US manufacturing PMI never
stopped contracting. 

48
00:02:42,720 --> 00:02:44,600
It. 
It, it normally it contracts for

49
00:02:44,600 --> 00:02:47,320
about a year and then it it 
starts to spike up again. 

50
00:02:47,320 --> 00:02:53,600
So I was waiting in late 2023 
and in 2024 and in 2025 for US 

51
00:02:53,600 --> 00:02:56,640
manufacturing PMI to finally 
stop contracting, finally get 

52
00:02:56,640 --> 00:02:58,680
out of a recession and start to 
spike. 

53
00:02:59,400 --> 00:03:01,920
It never did. 
And so I think in my mind, I 

54
00:03:01,920 --> 00:03:04,480
know every, lots of people have 
their reasons or, you know, 

55
00:03:04,480 --> 00:03:06,920
explanations for why or why not 
things happened. 

56
00:03:06,960 --> 00:03:11,920
But I think the reason why the 
the end of 2025 was so 

57
00:03:11,920 --> 00:03:14,480
disappointing for Bitcoin, even 
though it did peak, as it kind 

58
00:03:14,480 --> 00:03:18,880
of should have, you know, from 
historically speaking, it did 

59
00:03:18,880 --> 00:03:20,680
peak in the fourth quarter of 
2025. 

60
00:03:20,680 --> 00:03:23,240
It was very disappointing. 
We didn't have that blow off 

61
00:03:23,240 --> 00:03:25,040
top. 
I think it's because 

62
00:03:25,040 --> 00:03:27,840
manufacturing just never got out
of its hole. 

63
00:03:27,840 --> 00:03:31,160
It never stopped contracting and
so that was very disappointing. 

64
00:03:31,160 --> 00:03:34,960
It was I was in position for us 
to you know RIP higher into the 

65
00:03:34,960 --> 00:03:36,560
fourth quarter. 
We never got that. 

66
00:03:37,040 --> 00:03:40,880
So we never saw the D Gen. 
leverage longs people go in and 

67
00:03:40,880 --> 00:03:44,280
you know go all in with with 10X
leverage as well to help push 

68
00:03:44,280 --> 00:03:46,800
that price exponentially at the 
very end. 

69
00:03:47,560 --> 00:03:49,600
And that's just just it is what 
it is. 

70
00:03:49,600 --> 00:03:51,120
So that's what happened. 
So I think it was a 

71
00:03:51,120 --> 00:03:54,320
disappointing peak, but I think 
it's reflected in the fact that 

72
00:03:54,680 --> 00:03:57,800
manufacturing never took off. 
And why do I say that now? 

73
00:03:57,800 --> 00:04:01,280
Because that leads us to where 
we are today, because it's, it's

74
00:04:01,280 --> 00:04:03,360
maybe this is your next 
question, but where are we 

75
00:04:03,360 --> 00:04:06,160
today? 
US manufacturing PMI has the 

76
00:04:06,160 --> 00:04:08,800
last four months has been 
expansionary. 

77
00:04:08,800 --> 00:04:12,680
So for the first time since, you
know, four years ago, it finally

78
00:04:12,680 --> 00:04:15,520
looks like this is real. 
It's finally out of contraction,

79
00:04:15,520 --> 00:04:17,920
it's out of a recession, it's 
starting to boom. 

80
00:04:18,720 --> 00:04:22,400
And that is very bullish. 
And so, so when you, when you 

81
00:04:22,400 --> 00:04:24,960
couple that, that and then 
there's a, there's a tricky part

82
00:04:24,960 --> 00:04:27,240
because liquidity is on its own 
cycle. 

83
00:04:27,960 --> 00:04:31,360
Liquidity has sort of peaked and
the rate of change shows that 

84
00:04:31,360 --> 00:04:33,360
it's kind of topping. 
If you look at the work that 

85
00:04:33,360 --> 00:04:36,160
Michael Howell does on 
liquidity, he suggests that it's

86
00:04:36,160 --> 00:04:39,680
probably going to roll over and 
actually had lower, it's going 

87
00:04:39,680 --> 00:04:42,840
to decelerate for the, the next 
kind of 6 to 12 months. 

88
00:04:42,840 --> 00:04:44,760
And he's sort of bearish for 
that reason. 

89
00:04:45,320 --> 00:04:48,480
I share that sentimentality that
it's a little concerning to me, 

90
00:04:48,960 --> 00:04:51,400
but it's being offset now, which
is interesting. 

91
00:04:51,400 --> 00:04:52,760
And it doesn't normally happen 
this way. 

92
00:04:52,760 --> 00:04:55,560
It's being offset by 
manufacturing starting to spike.

93
00:04:56,320 --> 00:04:59,560
And I think a lot of that has to
do with fiscal dominance versus 

94
00:04:59,560 --> 00:05:02,200
monetary dominance that we had 
the the prior decade. 

95
00:05:02,200 --> 00:05:04,720
Now we're in a fiscal dominance 
regime. 

96
00:05:04,720 --> 00:05:06,360
So we can talk about any of that
if you'd like to. 

97
00:05:06,360 --> 00:05:06,880
Yeah. 
Yeah, yeah. 

98
00:05:06,880 --> 00:05:08,280
No, it's, it's super 
interesting. 

99
00:05:08,280 --> 00:05:12,720
I recently had episodes with 
Plan C and also Sminston with 

100
00:05:12,720 --> 00:05:17,080
who Sminston is really deep into
kind of this correlation between

101
00:05:17,080 --> 00:05:19,680
PMI and Bitcoin. 
Actually, I think today or 

102
00:05:19,680 --> 00:05:25,880
yesterday he tweeted we kind of 
escaped the below 50 PMI and you

103
00:05:25,880 --> 00:05:29,240
see that once that just, you 
know, has a little flick above 

104
00:05:29,240 --> 00:05:34,080
50, you see Bitcoin go. 
I find it strange that it's so 

105
00:05:34,080 --> 00:05:36,960
directly correlated and I just 
wonder what you think, right? 

106
00:05:36,960 --> 00:05:39,840
Like, you know, do people think 
like, oh, cheap money, let's go 

107
00:05:39,840 --> 00:05:43,880
into risk or like, how does that
even work that there is such a 

108
00:05:44,880 --> 00:05:47,040
correlation in a very short time
frame, I would say. 

109
00:05:47,280 --> 00:05:49,360
Yeah. 
So that correlation I think is 

110
00:05:49,360 --> 00:05:53,520
real and it continues to to show
itself to be real for whatever 

111
00:05:53,520 --> 00:05:55,000
reason. 
The other thing that I think is 

112
00:05:55,000 --> 00:05:59,760
important besides just the whole
liquidity expansion concept is 

113
00:05:59,760 --> 00:06:01,920
the financial repression 
concept. 

114
00:06:01,920 --> 00:06:05,400
So somebody, I think it was 
Jordy Visser where I first saw 

115
00:06:05,400 --> 00:06:08,280
it and maybe Darius Dale have 
been talking about this and some

116
00:06:08,280 --> 00:06:10,240
other people. 
And I, I want to give credit to 

117
00:06:10,240 --> 00:06:14,400
whoever came up with this. 
When inflation is above what the

118
00:06:14,400 --> 00:06:18,760
federal funds rate is doing. 
And, and, and the reason I bring

119
00:06:18,760 --> 00:06:21,040
up these short term T-bills is 
because they tend to follow what

120
00:06:21,040 --> 00:06:22,640
the federal funds rate are as 
well. 

121
00:06:22,800 --> 00:06:26,480
When inflation is rising above 
the short term interest rates, 

122
00:06:26,720 --> 00:06:28,680
you're getting financial 
repression right there. 

123
00:06:28,680 --> 00:06:31,240
So basically what's happening is
the central bank, the Fed, the 

124
00:06:31,240 --> 00:06:35,000
Federal Reserve is holding short
term rates below a certain level

125
00:06:35,000 --> 00:06:37,720
or at a certain level, but 
inflation is rising. 

126
00:06:37,720 --> 00:06:40,160
Everybody knows inflation is 
spiking right now because of the

127
00:06:40,200 --> 00:06:43,640
the Persian Gulf conflict and 
you know, spiking oil prices, 

128
00:06:43,640 --> 00:06:46,320
all that kind of things and D 
globalization, all of these 

129
00:06:46,320 --> 00:06:49,000
things are are tend to be very 
inflationary. 

130
00:06:49,560 --> 00:06:52,920
When that happened, somebody 
showed a chart, and I believe I 

131
00:06:52,920 --> 00:06:58,920
first saw that with Jordy 
Visser, that in 100% of bitcoins

132
00:06:58,920 --> 00:07:03,280
gains over the last 10 plus 
years have been during these 

133
00:07:03,280 --> 00:07:07,760
periods where inflation is 
running hot and interest rates 

134
00:07:07,760 --> 00:07:09,640
are below that. 
So you're getting financial 

135
00:07:09,640 --> 00:07:12,000
repression. 
So holders of short term debt 

136
00:07:12,000 --> 00:07:16,600
like money market funds, T-bills
and similar instruments are 

137
00:07:16,600 --> 00:07:20,760
actually losing purchasing power
relative to the inflation rate. 

138
00:07:20,760 --> 00:07:22,560
So they're losing their 
purchasing power even though 

139
00:07:22,560 --> 00:07:25,560
they're getting those games and 
it's Bitcoin sniffs that out. 

140
00:07:25,560 --> 00:07:29,480
So Bitcoin loves monetary 
financial repression. 

141
00:07:29,920 --> 00:07:32,240
And when that happens, basically
people are like, why would I 

142
00:07:32,240 --> 00:07:35,240
have my money sitting in a money
market fund, actually losing 

143
00:07:35,240 --> 00:07:38,400
purchasing power when I could 
put it in, you know, the 

144
00:07:38,400 --> 00:07:42,400
soundest, hardest money and make
gains like that. 

145
00:07:42,400 --> 00:07:45,520
So, so over the, you can, you 
can look at charts that show 

146
00:07:45,520 --> 00:07:47,560
that this is when Bitcoin starts
to perform. 

147
00:07:47,560 --> 00:07:51,160
And we just recently had a cross
where where we're getting this 

148
00:07:51,160 --> 00:07:53,040
kind of short term financial 
repression. 

149
00:07:53,240 --> 00:07:56,280
And, you know, right on cue, 
Bitcoin also started to take 

150
00:07:56,280 --> 00:07:57,520
off. 
So I don't know if that's also 

151
00:07:57,520 --> 00:08:00,120
correlated with manufacturing 
doing well, if they're sort of 

152
00:08:00,120 --> 00:08:03,640
all interrelated. 
But whatever it is, for whatever

153
00:08:03,640 --> 00:08:06,120
reason, Bitcoin is sniffing all 
this out and it's starting to 

154
00:08:06,120 --> 00:08:07,680
look quite bullish. 
Yeah. 

155
00:08:08,040 --> 00:08:12,720
You recently said that you think
the four year cycle is dead. 

156
00:08:12,720 --> 00:08:15,360
I don't know if you think it it,
it ever existed. 

157
00:08:15,360 --> 00:08:18,960
But if, if that's the case, 
what's what is then kind of the 

158
00:08:18,960 --> 00:08:21,880
new heartbeat of the price, Like
what's what, what is the thing 

159
00:08:21,880 --> 00:08:24,000
we should follow the combination
of the things we're just 

160
00:08:24,000 --> 00:08:26,920
mentioning or are you looking at
like 1 specific? 

161
00:08:27,040 --> 00:08:30,680
So, so in the, so in the 20 tens
the last decade, I think Bitcoin

162
00:08:30,680 --> 00:08:33,520
was basically a collectible that
was, it was in the collectible 

163
00:08:33,520 --> 00:08:36,120
phase where it was just sort of 
this interesting magic Internet 

164
00:08:36,120 --> 00:08:38,200
money that, you know, 
cypherpunks and other people got

165
00:08:38,200 --> 00:08:41,320
into. 
So I think it traded very 

166
00:08:41,720 --> 00:08:45,320
tightly with its its own four 
years almost. 

167
00:08:45,320 --> 00:08:48,000
It's not quite a four year 
cycle, but 3-3 months and 

168
00:08:48,000 --> 00:08:54,640
three-year 11 month cycles is 
usually what kind of Bitcoin had

169
00:08:54,640 --> 00:08:56,280
been following. 
I think it had a lot to do with 

170
00:08:56,280 --> 00:09:00,000
the big Bitcoin miners and sort 
of their whole financial 

171
00:09:00,000 --> 00:09:03,280
situation and and as the 
happenings would happen, the 

172
00:09:03,280 --> 00:09:05,600
effects that that had at miners,
whether they were buying or 

173
00:09:05,600 --> 00:09:07,880
selling or expanding or 
contracting or not. 

174
00:09:08,800 --> 00:09:12,160
Now, I think this decade where 
Bitcoin and this is the store of

175
00:09:12,160 --> 00:09:15,320
value decade for Bitcoin, where 
as it's becoming the world's 

176
00:09:15,320 --> 00:09:18,080
money, it does it in phases. 
So the so the 20 tens was the 

177
00:09:18,080 --> 00:09:19,720
collectible phase, the 20 
twenties. 

178
00:09:19,720 --> 00:09:21,600
This is the store of value 
phase. 

179
00:09:21,880 --> 00:09:26,840
I think the twenty 30s will be 
the medium of exchange phase for

180
00:09:26,840 --> 00:09:27,960
it. 
And then the fight, the 20 

181
00:09:27,960 --> 00:09:30,720
forties probably will be where 
it's kind of the world's unit of

182
00:09:30,720 --> 00:09:32,320
account. 
So it has, you know, we're 

183
00:09:32,320 --> 00:09:34,280
growing, we're getting there. 
A lot of people want it to 

184
00:09:34,280 --> 00:09:37,840
happen right now, but I think 
we're still like, say 1520 years

185
00:09:37,840 --> 00:09:40,800
away from that where it's the 
world's unit of account. 

186
00:09:42,800 --> 00:09:48,400
Why does that matter? 
Because Bitcoin is now 

187
00:09:48,400 --> 00:09:53,400
increasingly trading as a, a 
major global macro asset. 

188
00:09:53,400 --> 00:09:59,600
So it it like oil, like US 
equities, like gold and other 

189
00:09:59,800 --> 00:10:03,480
like bonds, things like that. 
It trades on the ebbs and flows 

190
00:10:03,480 --> 00:10:06,200
now of kind of global macro 
movements. 

191
00:10:06,200 --> 00:10:08,000
So what are the central banks 
doing? 

192
00:10:08,320 --> 00:10:11,040
Are we, you know, are we having 
a fiscal stimulus or 

193
00:10:11,040 --> 00:10:13,360
contraction? 
Are we having a monetary 

194
00:10:13,360 --> 00:10:16,120
stimulus or contraction? 
Those kind of things, Those 

195
00:10:16,120 --> 00:10:19,040
drive major asset prices. 
They drive the dollar, they 

196
00:10:19,040 --> 00:10:21,240
drive the yen, you know, are 
central banks protecting our 

197
00:10:21,240 --> 00:10:23,040
currency? 
Are they letting it, you know, a

198
00:10:23,040 --> 00:10:26,280
drop those kind of things? 
So Bitcoin is officially on that

199
00:10:26,280 --> 00:10:28,480
world stage. 
And I think it took it to become

200
00:10:28,480 --> 00:10:32,640
sort of in the 2 trillion range 
for for it's kind of market cap.

201
00:10:32,640 --> 00:10:34,560
Right now it's about 1.5 
trillion ish. 

202
00:10:35,480 --> 00:10:38,600
As it gets to 2 trillion and 
higher, it will increasingly 

203
00:10:38,600 --> 00:10:41,200
just trade like another major 
global asset class. 

204
00:10:41,200 --> 00:10:44,880
So I just that's how I view it. 
And I think that it's going to 

205
00:10:44,880 --> 00:10:48,960
continue doing that for decades 
to come, even more so as as the 

206
00:10:48,960 --> 00:10:53,680
years move on. 
If your Bitcoin double tomorrow,

207
00:10:53,680 --> 00:10:56,280
would you feel good about how 
it's secured right now? 

208
00:10:56,560 --> 00:10:58,600
Most people haven't really 
pressure tested that. 

209
00:10:58,600 --> 00:11:00,840
And I get it. 
Some people are comfortable 

210
00:11:00,840 --> 00:11:04,240
taking full control of their own
keys, but others want security 

211
00:11:04,240 --> 00:11:06,360
without having to manage it all 
themselves. 

212
00:11:06,560 --> 00:11:09,560
That's why I partnered with 
Onramp Multi Institution 

213
00:11:09,560 --> 00:11:12,000
Custody, where your keys are 
held across independent 

214
00:11:12,000 --> 00:11:14,240
institutions in multiple 
jurisdictions. 

215
00:11:14,480 --> 00:11:17,640
No single company can access, 
move or lose your Bitcoin. 

216
00:11:17,840 --> 00:11:20,600
Lloyd's of London insured 
inheritance planning built in 

217
00:11:20,880 --> 00:11:23,400
and a team that walks you 
through the entire set up. 

218
00:11:23,680 --> 00:11:26,520
They serve clients globally 
whether you're in the US, Europe

219
00:11:26,520 --> 00:11:29,240
or anywhere else. 
Book a free consultation at 

220
00:11:29,240 --> 00:11:31,880
onlinebitcoin.com/prom to learn 
more. 

221
00:11:31,960 --> 00:11:39,120
That's onlinebitcoin.com/prom. 
Most people stop too early with 

222
00:11:39,200 --> 00:11:41,400
Bitcoin. 
They buy it, maybe move it to a 

223
00:11:41,400 --> 00:11:44,080
wallet, and think they are done,
but they're not. 

224
00:11:44,280 --> 00:11:47,160
The real questions are how 
you're securing it, how private 

225
00:11:47,160 --> 00:11:49,280
your setup is, and whether 
you're verifying your own 

226
00:11:49,280 --> 00:11:51,200
transactions or trusting someone
else. 

227
00:11:51,440 --> 00:11:54,560
And what happens to your Bitcoin
when something happens to you. 

228
00:11:55,000 --> 00:11:57,720
This is the layer that most 
people ignore, and it's the most

229
00:11:57,720 --> 00:12:00,040
important one. 
That's why I've been working. 

230
00:12:00,040 --> 00:12:02,800
With the Bitcoin. 
Way to help you set up self 

231
00:12:02,800 --> 00:12:05,760
custody properly, including 
privacy, cybersecurity, 

232
00:12:05,760 --> 00:12:08,240
inheritance, and even running 
your own note. 

233
00:12:08,480 --> 00:12:11,320
And they do it without ever 
touching your Bitcoin. 

234
00:12:11,520 --> 00:12:14,000
They're not a custodian, they're
your support team. 

235
00:12:14,200 --> 00:12:16,360
If you're serious about this 
like I am, go to 

236
00:12:16,360 --> 00:12:20,680
thebitcoinway.com/brum. 
That's Bram to book a free call.

237
00:12:20,840 --> 00:12:23,600
They'll walk you through your 
setup, personalize everything to

238
00:12:23,600 --> 00:12:26,920
you, and help you get a much 
stronger position very quickly, 

239
00:12:27,080 --> 00:12:29,120
whether you're a beginner or 
more advanced. 

240
00:12:29,280 --> 00:12:34,040
That's the bitcoinway.com/brum. 
So when when Bitcoin was going 

241
00:12:34,040 --> 00:12:37,320
down and and you know, little 
little crap sideways feeling 

242
00:12:37,320 --> 00:12:41,000
stuck, we had bit we had gold 
hitting all time highs like 

243
00:12:41,160 --> 00:12:47,680
really ripping silver to and 
this kind of took a few months. 

244
00:12:47,680 --> 00:12:51,760
Do you think gold is is a 
leading indicator for, you know,

245
00:12:52,480 --> 00:12:55,640
the bigger turmoil dollar 
currency collapse? 

246
00:12:55,640 --> 00:12:57,640
You know, some people think that
is very far away. 

247
00:12:57,640 --> 00:13:01,560
That is too too big of a thing 
to to say right, But it's an 

248
00:13:01,560 --> 00:13:03,760
indicator for something. 
Let's let's call it like that. 

249
00:13:05,000 --> 00:13:08,320
Do you think just gold is the 
leading thing because just most 

250
00:13:08,320 --> 00:13:11,480
people are, you know, just have 
that picture of gold while 

251
00:13:11,480 --> 00:13:13,840
while, you know, we probably 
know that Bitcoin is 

252
00:13:13,840 --> 00:13:17,600
fundamentally superior to to 
gold, right? 

253
00:13:18,480 --> 00:13:21,160
Is that just the case right now?
And is Bitcoin, you know, kind 

254
00:13:21,160 --> 00:13:24,800
of like this coiled spring or is
it lagging like how do you look 

255
00:13:24,800 --> 00:13:25,560
at that? 
Yeah. 

256
00:13:25,560 --> 00:13:28,440
So this is a bit counter 
intuitive to me just because 

257
00:13:28,440 --> 00:13:31,720
gold is, you know, gold is old 
and gold is analog, but gold 

258
00:13:31,720 --> 00:13:35,360
tends to lead Bitcoin price 
movement by about six months. 

259
00:13:35,680 --> 00:13:37,800
So that's pretty interesting. 
It tends to be gold is at the 

260
00:13:37,800 --> 00:13:41,920
front edge of what's happening 
financially and monetarily. 

261
00:13:42,200 --> 00:13:45,000
And then about 3 months behind 
that is global liquidity. 

262
00:13:45,040 --> 00:13:48,080
And then about 3 months behind 
global liquidity is Bitcoin. 

263
00:13:48,840 --> 00:13:51,280
And so, so that's all very 
interesting to me. 

264
00:13:51,280 --> 00:13:55,200
So it did break down a bit 
though before the last kind of 

265
00:13:55,200 --> 00:13:58,360
half a year. 
So, so if that trend is to 

266
00:13:58,360 --> 00:14:02,840
continue as it historically has,
Bitcoin would have a lot of 

267
00:14:02,840 --> 00:14:04,880
making up to do basically. 
So while gold has been 

268
00:14:04,880 --> 00:14:09,040
weakening, we still need to see 
a serious ramp higher in Bitcoin

269
00:14:09,040 --> 00:14:10,480
to kind of make up for lost 
time. 

270
00:14:10,680 --> 00:14:14,120
So yes, I think over the long 
run though, that both gold and 

271
00:14:14,120 --> 00:14:15,920
Bitcoin are doing the same 
thing, right? 

272
00:14:15,920 --> 00:14:19,040
They're both sound money. 
Bitcoin is the soundest money. 

273
00:14:19,040 --> 00:14:22,120
They're both hard assets. 
They both respond to financial 

274
00:14:22,120 --> 00:14:24,960
repression. 
They both are basically what 

275
00:14:24,960 --> 00:14:28,320
people should be getting out of.
If you're, if people are sitting

276
00:14:28,320 --> 00:14:32,040
in government bonds right now, 
they're going to be inflated 

277
00:14:32,040 --> 00:14:33,880
away, their value is going to be
inflated away. 

278
00:14:33,880 --> 00:14:35,280
They're going to lose purchasing
power. 

279
00:14:35,280 --> 00:14:38,200
So as more and more people and 
institutions figure this out, 

280
00:14:38,400 --> 00:14:41,280
they're going to be continually 
shifting over into commodities, 

281
00:14:41,280 --> 00:14:43,920
hard assets, gold and Bitcoin as
well. 

282
00:14:43,920 --> 00:14:46,840
So I expect all of those to 
continue doing well for the next

283
00:14:46,840 --> 00:14:51,360
at least five years or so. 
Isn't it's crazy that people 

284
00:14:51,360 --> 00:14:54,440
haven't figured out that, you 
know, bonds are just like a 

285
00:14:54,440 --> 00:14:58,440
Ponzi, basically, and you always
lose your purchasing power, like

286
00:14:58,440 --> 00:14:59,840
more than what the yield gives 
you. 

287
00:14:59,840 --> 00:15:02,400
It's it's just, yeah, it's just 
a side of it. 

288
00:15:02,400 --> 00:15:04,760
It's so crazy. 
I find it so crazy. 

289
00:15:04,800 --> 00:15:07,280
Well, I think it's hard because 
you know, the boomers in the 

290
00:15:07,280 --> 00:15:10,440
Silent generation before them, 
they did nothing but make money 

291
00:15:10,440 --> 00:15:13,240
in bonds from the early 80s all 
the way till like the early 

292
00:15:13,240 --> 00:15:15,520
twenty 20s. 
So for 40 straight years, bonds 

293
00:15:15,520 --> 00:15:18,480
were a really smart investment. 
And so they just, most people 

294
00:15:18,480 --> 00:15:20,160
don't think about it. 
They're like, yeah, that's just 

295
00:15:20,160 --> 00:15:22,240
what you do. 
You have a 64 year portfolio and

296
00:15:22,240 --> 00:15:25,320
and bonds offset stocks and 
that's just no longer true. 

297
00:15:25,320 --> 00:15:28,520
But it takes a long time for 
people to figure that out. 

298
00:15:29,000 --> 00:15:30,360
So. 
So yeah, thankfully. 

299
00:15:30,440 --> 00:15:32,240
That's why it's so brilliant 
also, right? 

300
00:15:32,880 --> 00:15:34,360
It's a, it's a brilliant scheme,
right? 

301
00:15:35,960 --> 00:15:37,840
I also, yeah, I really like what
you said. 

302
00:15:37,840 --> 00:15:42,920
I also feel that, you know, the 
Bitcoin holders are, you know, 

303
00:15:42,920 --> 00:15:47,280
that holding is more structural.
I feel that it's less, I want to

304
00:15:47,280 --> 00:15:50,720
say like reactionary and more 
long term thinking, whereas I 

305
00:15:50,720 --> 00:15:53,760
think what we just saw with 
gold, like gold did nothing for 

306
00:15:53,760 --> 00:15:56,720
I don't know how long, you know,
and and then it goes up. 

307
00:15:56,720 --> 00:15:59,840
It feels like this kind of like 
wake up moment for a certain 

308
00:15:59,840 --> 00:16:02,640
amount of, you know, capital 
allocators and also it 

309
00:16:02,640 --> 00:16:05,760
individuals, right, just to 
consumers that then are like, 

310
00:16:05,880 --> 00:16:08,880
OK, something is going on. 
I need to get into gold because 

311
00:16:08,880 --> 00:16:12,320
gold is this old idea of, you 
know, the exit, the exit and 

312
00:16:12,320 --> 00:16:15,920
like the, the, the the the 
parallel hedge or however, you 

313
00:16:15,920 --> 00:16:21,680
know, people, people define it. 
And yeah, I've, I've always felt

314
00:16:21,680 --> 00:16:26,480
that this lag is just so 
interesting, right, That I 

315
00:16:26,480 --> 00:16:29,360
think, you know, Bitcoiners can 
all kind of articulate why, 

316
00:16:29,480 --> 00:16:32,760
again, why Bitcoin is better. 
But it's just this kind of like 

317
00:16:32,760 --> 00:16:36,480
story narrative around gold, 
just the history around gold 

318
00:16:36,480 --> 00:16:40,000
that, you know, makes it just a 
primary choice for people to to 

319
00:16:40,000 --> 00:16:43,360
get into when they have that 
feeling of, you know, now is the

320
00:16:43,360 --> 00:16:46,840
time that I need to get out of 
whatever it is stocks or, or, 

321
00:16:46,840 --> 00:16:48,760
or, or bonds. 
Right, right. 

322
00:16:49,040 --> 00:16:51,440
What's interesting too, I don't 
know if I've, if I showed this 

323
00:16:51,440 --> 00:16:54,960
the, IT was a long time ago 
where I was on your show, but 

324
00:16:54,960 --> 00:16:59,040
there are the sort of 10 to 20 
year cycles where financial 

325
00:16:59,040 --> 00:17:02,640
assets do very well relative to 
hard assets and relative to gold

326
00:17:02,640 --> 00:17:04,720
specifically. 
So what I like to show, and I 

327
00:17:04,720 --> 00:17:07,720
see more people now showing the 
same chart, basically the 100 

328
00:17:07,720 --> 00:17:11,599
plus year chart of the S&P 500 
priced in gold. 

329
00:17:12,079 --> 00:17:15,440
And what you see are these very 
large and obvious peaks and 

330
00:17:15,440 --> 00:17:18,359
cycles. 
So like basically in 1929, right

331
00:17:18,359 --> 00:17:20,240
at the right before the Great 
Depression, the Great 

332
00:17:20,240 --> 00:17:23,319
Depression, there was this huge 
peak where financialized assets 

333
00:17:23,319 --> 00:17:25,839
did extremely well and then they
cracked and they broke and all 

334
00:17:25,839 --> 00:17:28,760
the way until there was a bottom
in 1933 and then a second 

335
00:17:28,760 --> 00:17:31,200
bottom. 
So like a double bottom in 1941.

336
00:17:31,480 --> 00:17:34,480
And it took World War 2 to kind 
of get manufacturing going 

337
00:17:34,480 --> 00:17:36,880
again. 
And then you see this 

338
00:17:36,880 --> 00:17:40,360
financialization happen again 
from the early 40s all the way 

339
00:17:40,360 --> 00:17:44,720
to like 1968 or so. 
And then it rolled over again. 

340
00:17:44,720 --> 00:17:47,400
And then the 70s were a very 
difficult decade for financial 

341
00:17:47,400 --> 00:17:49,360
assets. 
People who just owned stocks and

342
00:17:49,360 --> 00:17:55,160
held for 14 years from 1968 to 
1982 basically flat line. 

343
00:17:55,160 --> 00:17:58,360
It just chopped sideways like a 
crap market, but in real terms. 

344
00:17:58,360 --> 00:18:02,240
And their purchasing power, they
actually lost about 75% of their

345
00:18:02,240 --> 00:18:05,680
purchasing power over that time.
This happened again from the 

346
00:18:05,680 --> 00:18:09,680
early 80s all the way till 
basicallythe.com bust in 2000. 

347
00:18:10,360 --> 00:18:13,680
And then again, we had a a time 
where it rolled over stocks 

348
00:18:13,680 --> 00:18:15,840
basically went nowhere for a 
very long time. 

349
00:18:15,840 --> 00:18:20,760
And gold did very well from 2000
to 2011, we had one more run 

350
00:18:20,760 --> 00:18:23,640
higher and that it's same thing 
happened again where we had a 

351
00:18:23,640 --> 00:18:25,880
peak basically at the end of 
2021. 

352
00:18:26,160 --> 00:18:29,880
And the way I view that is 
basically the world for like 15 

353
00:18:29,880 --> 00:18:33,000
to 20 years or so, I was like, 
they're all in on the US. the US

354
00:18:33,000 --> 00:18:35,440
can do no wrong. 
They all that everybody wants to

355
00:18:35,440 --> 00:18:38,400
own US tech stocks and you know,
and be a part of this. 

356
00:18:38,720 --> 00:18:41,520
And it the system just builds 
and builds and builds on itself 

357
00:18:41,520 --> 00:18:43,920
and more and more leverage comes
into it and more and more people

358
00:18:43,920 --> 00:18:47,560
are borrowing and all of that is
going into US based assets and 

359
00:18:47,560 --> 00:18:49,520
it becomes more and more 
financialized. 

360
00:18:49,520 --> 00:18:51,360
And then finally people are 
like, you know what? 

361
00:18:51,360 --> 00:18:53,480
It's gone too far. 
This is crazy. 

362
00:18:53,480 --> 00:18:55,720
Like US is so over indebted 
right now. 

363
00:18:55,720 --> 00:18:57,960
There's no chance they can pay 
back their debts and sound 

364
00:18:57,960 --> 00:19:00,520
money. 
Let's actually go to hard assets

365
00:19:00,520 --> 00:19:03,400
and sound money, you know, And 
so that's when then gold starts 

366
00:19:03,400 --> 00:19:06,320
to outperform commodities, 
things like real estate, 

367
00:19:06,320 --> 00:19:09,800
farmland, and I think Bitcoin 
tend to outperform substantially

368
00:19:09,800 --> 00:19:11,720
over financial assets during 
those times. 

369
00:19:11,800 --> 00:19:13,480
So we're in one of those periods
right now. 

370
00:19:13,960 --> 00:19:18,160
You talked also about something 
that I hadn't heard of, but you 

371
00:19:18,160 --> 00:19:21,520
highlighted the return of 
something that is called 100% 

372
00:19:21,640 --> 00:19:27,200
bonus depreciation, which is 
something in the US, and you 

373
00:19:27,200 --> 00:19:29,560
talk about it that it could be a
catalyst. 

374
00:19:29,560 --> 00:19:32,440
Now how? 
How does a corporate tax break 

375
00:19:32,440 --> 00:19:38,080
lead to more demand for Bitcoin?
Well, so that's that's the 

376
00:19:38,080 --> 00:19:40,800
tough. 
So it's good for manufacturing 

377
00:19:40,840 --> 00:19:43,760
in general. 
So, so corporations right now 

378
00:19:43,760 --> 00:19:47,120
are being strongly incentivized 
and are actually doing this 

379
00:19:47,120 --> 00:19:51,160
where they are expanding their 
manufacturing capabilities in 

380
00:19:51,160 --> 00:19:54,320
the US because they have huge 
tax breaks for doing so. 

381
00:19:54,320 --> 00:19:57,200
They can depreciate their 
expenses basically in year 1. 

382
00:19:57,200 --> 00:20:01,360
So they are heavily incentivized
to move very fast right now to 

383
00:20:01,360 --> 00:20:05,320
bring manufacturing and energy 
capacity, energy infrastructure,

384
00:20:05,320 --> 00:20:08,480
manufacturing and the military 
industrial complex basically 

385
00:20:08,480 --> 00:20:11,760
back to the United States as 
fast as possible because I 

386
00:20:11,760 --> 00:20:13,240
because the Trump 
administration. 

387
00:20:13,520 --> 00:20:15,080
Believes we are at war right 
now. 

388
00:20:15,080 --> 00:20:17,400
I think in their minds we are in
war. 

389
00:20:18,040 --> 00:20:21,320
And so everything they're doing 
and the executive orders that 

390
00:20:21,320 --> 00:20:23,920
the Trump administration is 
putting out is basically wartime

391
00:20:23,920 --> 00:20:26,640
mentality, even though the 
majority of Americans still 

392
00:20:26,640 --> 00:20:29,560
don't think that we're in any 
kind of major war right now. 

393
00:20:30,440 --> 00:20:31,880
They think Trump's just kind of 
crazy. 

394
00:20:31,920 --> 00:20:36,280
And so, so so you asked, how 
does that, how does that go into

395
00:20:36,280 --> 00:20:39,160
people buying Bitcoin? 
I don't know the correlation, 

396
00:20:39,160 --> 00:20:41,520
but there is a tight correlation
like we discussed right at the 

397
00:20:41,520 --> 00:20:45,480
beginning of when manufacturing 
does well for whatever reason, 

398
00:20:45,480 --> 00:20:47,520
that correlates with Bitcoin 
doing well. 

399
00:20:47,520 --> 00:20:51,480
And again, the way I see that is
proof of work begets more proof 

400
00:20:51,480 --> 00:20:53,400
of work. 
So proof of work manufacturing 

401
00:20:53,400 --> 00:20:56,800
in the building, the the, you 
know, expending time and energy 

402
00:20:56,800 --> 00:21:01,200
to build actual goods that 
people want valuable goods and 

403
00:21:01,200 --> 00:21:05,080
services gets reflected into the
price of Bitcoin, which is proof

404
00:21:05,080 --> 00:21:08,960
of work money that people want 
to have a durable energy based 

405
00:21:09,400 --> 00:21:12,120
money with a fixed supply. 
And for whatever reason, those 

406
00:21:12,120 --> 00:21:13,680
two things are heavily 
correlated. 

407
00:21:13,680 --> 00:21:17,040
So I don't know why but that 
that's how I figure it out in my

408
00:21:17,040 --> 00:21:18,520
mind. 
Yeah. 

409
00:21:18,520 --> 00:21:23,200
So we're seeing Bitcoin now up, 
I think it's about 50% against 

410
00:21:23,200 --> 00:21:27,800
gold since, since March, which 
is, you know, related to what we

411
00:21:27,800 --> 00:21:30,200
just talked about. 
I, I find that very interesting 

412
00:21:31,080 --> 00:21:34,480
because you would, you could 
argue that the underlying thesis

413
00:21:34,480 --> 00:21:37,160
is the same, right? 
So they, they should be going up

414
00:21:37,520 --> 00:21:42,160
together. 
But you know, the interest of 

415
00:21:42,160 --> 00:21:45,400
retail in Bitcoin I I feel is 
totally gone. 

416
00:21:45,400 --> 00:21:50,880
Like it's not 2017 or, or, or 
2020 at all. 

417
00:21:51,080 --> 00:21:55,240
I did get a notification this 
morning, like from Spotify or 

418
00:21:55,240 --> 00:21:58,880
like this, this podcast tool 
that I use where it showed 

419
00:21:59,280 --> 00:22:01,840
Bitcoin searches are up, for 
example. 

420
00:22:01,840 --> 00:22:05,040
And you see in, in, in Google, 
you see Bitcoin searches up, but

421
00:22:05,040 --> 00:22:06,880
I, I don't think it's reflecting
in the price. 

422
00:22:06,880 --> 00:22:08,880
I also feel there's this unit 
bias, right? 

423
00:22:08,880 --> 00:22:11,960
Like people just think, you 
know, ADK is, is, is a crazy 

424
00:22:11,960 --> 00:22:15,120
price. 
Why do you think the more like 

425
00:22:15,120 --> 00:22:18,280
owner class, you know, more 
affluent, richer people are 

426
00:22:18,280 --> 00:22:21,040
actually stacking and the 
average person just still 

427
00:22:21,040 --> 00:22:24,200
thinks, you know, they missed it
or it's still Ponzi or, you 

428
00:22:24,200 --> 00:22:27,200
know, this could never work or 
just their trust in Fiat is 

429
00:22:27,200 --> 00:22:30,040
still high. 
Like how, how do we reach more 

430
00:22:30,040 --> 00:22:33,280
people? 
Just I, I would say basically 

431
00:22:33,280 --> 00:22:36,640
with with the general thesis, 
right, loss of purchasing power,

432
00:22:36,640 --> 00:22:41,640
inevitable inflation, etcetera. 
Well, to me, just from observing

433
00:22:41,680 --> 00:22:44,440
from the outside, so I'm not a 
political person, right? 

434
00:22:44,440 --> 00:22:47,320
I'm a like a fierce independent.
I'm not Republican, I'm not 

435
00:22:47,320 --> 00:22:53,760
Democrat in the US people that 
so the left is anti Bitcoin and 

436
00:22:53,760 --> 00:22:56,800
the right is pro Bitcoin. 
And I think that's a huge 

437
00:22:56,800 --> 00:22:58,840
bummer. 
And I think what what the left 

438
00:22:58,840 --> 00:23:02,120
has done is they associate 
Bitcoin and all things crypto 

439
00:23:02,120 --> 00:23:05,440
and crypto scams rightly with 
the Trump administration because

440
00:23:05,440 --> 00:23:06,880
they're all involved in crypto 
too. 

441
00:23:06,880 --> 00:23:09,040
And these guys are they say 
they're pro Bitcoin, but they're

442
00:23:09,040 --> 00:23:12,080
really crypto Bros disguised as 
Bitcoiners, kind of like the 

443
00:23:12,080 --> 00:23:14,800
Bitcoin conference, the big 
conferences says it's a Bitcoin 

444
00:23:14,800 --> 00:23:17,520
conference, but it's really more
of a crypto bro and stable coin 

445
00:23:17,520 --> 00:23:19,640
conference, which I think is 
unfortunate. 

446
00:23:19,920 --> 00:23:24,040
So, so it's confused in the 
media and, and in the US, US 

447
00:23:24,320 --> 00:23:27,000
the, and this is just proven, 
this is factual. 

448
00:23:27,320 --> 00:23:30,480
The majority of mainstream media
is left-leaning. 

449
00:23:30,800 --> 00:23:34,640
And so left-leaning media, which
most regular people see to your 

450
00:23:34,640 --> 00:23:37,160
point, like why don't regular 
people embrace Bitcoin? 

451
00:23:37,160 --> 00:23:40,040
What don't they understand? 
They're being told still the 

452
00:23:40,040 --> 00:23:42,640
same kind of tired arguments 
that we've been talking about 

453
00:23:42,640 --> 00:23:44,880
for the last five or ten years. 
It's a Ponzi scheme. 

454
00:23:45,160 --> 00:23:47,240
You know, these they're, 
they're, it's a casino. 

455
00:23:47,240 --> 00:23:49,360
It's going to 0. 
There's no intrinsic value. 

456
00:23:49,360 --> 00:23:52,040
All of these it's it's boiling 
the ocean, blah, blah, blah, 

457
00:23:52,040 --> 00:23:56,440
blah, all of the same nonsense. 
It's just being spewed day after

458
00:23:56,440 --> 00:23:59,160
day by the left-leaning 
mainstream media. 

459
00:23:59,680 --> 00:24:02,080
And then also I think what's 
super interesting is the 

460
00:24:02,080 --> 00:24:07,760
majority of investment advisors 
and fund managers in the United 

461
00:24:07,760 --> 00:24:11,520
States also lean left, also 
donate politically to the left. 

462
00:24:11,800 --> 00:24:14,080
And again, I don't this is even 
it. 

463
00:24:14,080 --> 00:24:15,680
It's just very interesting to 
me. 

464
00:24:15,680 --> 00:24:19,280
And so to me, the, the, they're 
either then avoid Bitcoin 

465
00:24:19,280 --> 00:24:22,160
because they think it's a 
Trumpan coin and it's a scam and

466
00:24:22,160 --> 00:24:26,520
it's going to 0 or they, if they
do own Bitcoin, they still don't

467
00:24:26,520 --> 00:24:29,360
understand it and they treat it 
like it's a software stock 

468
00:24:29,360 --> 00:24:31,040
basically. 
So we've seen lots of charts 

469
00:24:31,040 --> 00:24:35,000
showing the correlation with 
software stocks and Bitcoin over

470
00:24:35,000 --> 00:24:38,640
the last 6 plus months. 
And to me, that's because Wall 

471
00:24:38,640 --> 00:24:41,640
Street is now involved and they 
think of it like this tech bet 

472
00:24:41,640 --> 00:24:44,400
basically. 
And, and you know, and is AI 

473
00:24:44,400 --> 00:24:46,560
going to replace Bitcoin? 
And what if, you know, what if 

474
00:24:46,560 --> 00:24:49,200
quantum computing breaks Bitcoin
and all these kind of things 

475
00:24:49,200 --> 00:24:51,240
that they're concerned about, 
but because they don't truly 

476
00:24:51,240 --> 00:24:53,960
understand what's going on with 
Bitcoin and at kind of a 

477
00:24:53,960 --> 00:24:58,440
protocol level, there's just a 
lot of education that needs to 

478
00:24:58,440 --> 00:25:00,320
be done. 
And unfortunately, in America, 

479
00:25:00,320 --> 00:25:03,640
it's become a political issue. 
And at any time anything becomes

480
00:25:03,640 --> 00:25:05,800
politicized, people basically 
stop thinking. 

481
00:25:05,800 --> 00:25:08,400
They basically just they repeat 
what their leaders say. 

482
00:25:08,400 --> 00:25:11,240
They repeat what the mainstream 
media or social media says. 

483
00:25:11,600 --> 00:25:14,440
And so it's either good or bad. 
And so right now, everybody on 

484
00:25:14,440 --> 00:25:16,840
the left thinks it's bad and 
everybody on the right thinks 

485
00:25:16,840 --> 00:25:20,280
it's good and they don't. 
And almost nobody really thinks 

486
00:25:20,280 --> 00:25:22,800
about what it is that they own 
and they don't understand that 

487
00:25:22,800 --> 00:25:25,320
it's just sound money. 
It's a it's a better asset. 

488
00:25:25,320 --> 00:25:29,520
It's a better savings vehicle. 
So that that's how I look at it.

489
00:25:29,520 --> 00:25:33,400
And we saw that gives people 
like you Bitcoin podcasters, you

490
00:25:33,400 --> 00:25:37,480
know, a ton of job security 
because there is so much 

491
00:25:37,480 --> 00:25:40,280
education that needs to happen 
both in the United States and 

492
00:25:40,280 --> 00:25:44,440
around the world to help people 
understand what Bitcoin actually

493
00:25:44,440 --> 00:25:45,800
is. 
It's this new asset class that 

494
00:25:45,800 --> 00:25:48,440
most people haven't taken the 
time to figure out. 

495
00:25:48,920 --> 00:25:50,640
You know, Bitcoin is neutral 
money. 

496
00:25:50,640 --> 00:25:52,040
I do think it's neutral money, 
right? 

497
00:25:52,040 --> 00:25:53,880
Like it's new. 
It's it's money for enemies. 

498
00:25:53,880 --> 00:25:56,600
Anyone can adopt it. 
You know, anyone can deal with 

499
00:25:56,600 --> 00:25:59,400
block space, whatever they want,
even if they want to do like 

500
00:25:59,400 --> 00:26:01,840
idiots, cat pictures or or 
whatever. 

501
00:26:03,320 --> 00:26:10,960
But the underlying idea, I think
under neutral money is actually 

502
00:26:11,280 --> 00:26:14,800
somewhat political, right? 
Like a libertarian, perhaps a 

503
00:26:14,800 --> 00:26:19,520
bit conservative type idea. 
So that's something that I later

504
00:26:19,520 --> 00:26:22,000
learned or just people pointed 
out to me is that, you know, a 

505
00:26:22,000 --> 00:26:24,760
lot of people on the left who 
actually call themselves 

506
00:26:24,760 --> 00:26:27,000
progressives, which, which I 
think is funny, like it's a 

507
00:26:27,000 --> 00:26:30,200
hijacked word because they're 
totally not progressive, right? 

508
00:26:30,200 --> 00:26:34,560
But they, they, they do want 
more centralized control, right?

509
00:26:34,560 --> 00:26:37,320
Like that. 
I, I do think that is a central 

510
00:26:37,320 --> 00:26:40,320
to, central to their, to their 
ideology. 

511
00:26:40,320 --> 00:26:44,960
So in, in that sense, I, I, I 
would say that Bitcoin is kind 

512
00:26:44,960 --> 00:26:48,200
of a threat to, to death. 
What, what do you think about 

513
00:26:48,200 --> 00:26:51,160
that as, as someone who 
positions themselves, you know, 

514
00:26:51,240 --> 00:26:52,600
in in the middle? 
Yeah. 

515
00:26:52,640 --> 00:26:55,680
Well, it's definitely so I agree
with you. 

516
00:26:55,680 --> 00:26:57,640
So that, and we see proof of 
that, right? 

517
00:26:57,640 --> 00:27:01,440
Like so China, which is all 
about control communism, they 

518
00:27:01,640 --> 00:27:03,760
ban Bitcoin. 
They don't like Bitcoin, they 

519
00:27:03,760 --> 00:27:05,560
don't like it because they can't
control it. 

520
00:27:05,560 --> 00:27:08,760
Bitcoin is sort of this freedom 
money outside of their control. 

521
00:27:09,160 --> 00:27:13,280
And so a nation like China or 
say North Korea would not like 

522
00:27:13,320 --> 00:27:16,280
such a thing, even though I 
think it would be great for 

523
00:27:16,280 --> 00:27:19,160
their citizens. 
And so, so I agree with you, I 

524
00:27:19,160 --> 00:27:21,920
think and, and most of the 
people who are very and there 

525
00:27:21,920 --> 00:27:25,520
are people who are vehemently 
opposed to Bitcoin in the USA. 

526
00:27:25,520 --> 00:27:27,240
Lot of Gen. 
Xers talk about this very 

527
00:27:27,240 --> 00:27:31,080
intelligent people who I would 
just say are they tend to lean 

528
00:27:31,080 --> 00:27:35,000
left and are quite statist like.
They just think that the the 

529
00:27:35,040 --> 00:27:38,360
creation and control of money 
should lie only with the US 

530
00:27:38,360 --> 00:27:41,040
government. 
And then they talk about all of 

531
00:27:41,040 --> 00:27:43,960
the reasons why Bitcoin could be
bad be and how it's. 

532
00:27:43,960 --> 00:27:45,680
Just not progressive. 
Sorry, I just. 

533
00:27:46,000 --> 00:27:49,960
Yeah, yeah, right, right. 
And I don't want to get 

534
00:27:49,960 --> 00:27:52,640
political about this. 
I just like to like just make 

535
00:27:52,640 --> 00:28:00,000
these observations. 
And to their point, a fixed 

536
00:28:00,000 --> 00:28:04,880
supply money is antithetical to 
government Fiat currencies. 

537
00:28:04,880 --> 00:28:08,440
So the whole Fiat system is 
based on the expansion of credit

538
00:28:08,440 --> 00:28:12,320
and it has to constantly expand.
And so they have to constant you

539
00:28:12,320 --> 00:28:15,840
at the Congress and other, you 
know, Western governments. 

540
00:28:15,840 --> 00:28:19,080
And whoever has these Fiat 
currencies have to constantly 

541
00:28:19,360 --> 00:28:24,360
borrow and spend money to expand
the monetary supply, to continue

542
00:28:24,360 --> 00:28:26,880
to roll over for these ever 
increasing debts. 

543
00:28:27,160 --> 00:28:30,040
And that continues and it 
continues and continues until it

544
00:28:30,040 --> 00:28:32,840
can't continue anymore. 
And so that's what brings us to 

545
00:28:32,840 --> 00:28:38,280
these points of geopolitical 
tensions and major world wars 

546
00:28:38,280 --> 00:28:41,400
and conflicts, civil wars, civil
wars are happening all over the 

547
00:28:41,400 --> 00:28:44,560
world right now. 
Countries are are battling each 

548
00:28:44,560 --> 00:28:46,440
other. 
There's more global client 

549
00:28:46,440 --> 00:28:49,280
conflict right now than there 
has been since World War Two. 

550
00:28:49,280 --> 00:28:54,440
We haven't seen this much hot 
war fighting since World War 2. 

551
00:28:54,440 --> 00:28:57,800
So it's, it's, it's not a good 
time and it's all interrelated. 

552
00:28:58,160 --> 00:29:00,520
And basically as the 
government's reached this point 

553
00:29:00,520 --> 00:29:03,240
where they have expanded the 
debt supply so much that it's 

554
00:29:03,240 --> 00:29:06,920
beyond even, it's not even 
possible to repay the amount of 

555
00:29:06,920 --> 00:29:09,080
debt that we owe right now in 
sound money. 

556
00:29:10,480 --> 00:29:13,640
And when you have that, you see 
massive rises in income 

557
00:29:13,640 --> 00:29:15,440
inequality. 
So where it starts, like right 

558
00:29:15,440 --> 00:29:18,640
after World War Two, there was 
income equality. 

559
00:29:18,840 --> 00:29:22,160
And now that that gap has 
widened and it's become so 

560
00:29:22,160 --> 00:29:24,360
extreme that the people just 
can't take it anymore. 

561
00:29:24,360 --> 00:29:26,880
So the working class on the 
bottom that's just trying to 

562
00:29:26,880 --> 00:29:30,440
like literally just survive by 
working their jobs and working 

563
00:29:30,440 --> 00:29:33,120
as hard as they can, usually 
with two or sometimes three 

564
00:29:33,120 --> 00:29:35,280
careers and side gigs and all 
these other things. 

565
00:29:35,600 --> 00:29:38,800
They still can barely survive 
right now because inflation has 

566
00:29:38,800 --> 00:29:42,360
been running hot and all of this
borrowing and spending by the 

567
00:29:42,360 --> 00:29:44,960
governments have basically 
created this huge gap. 

568
00:29:44,960 --> 00:29:47,760
And that's where you have these 
basically 4th turnings, these 

569
00:29:47,760 --> 00:29:51,640
events where the, the, the, the,
the global humanity can't take 

570
00:29:51,640 --> 00:29:53,680
it anymore and governments are 
getting desperate. 

571
00:29:53,680 --> 00:29:56,600
And so we start to go to war, 
you know, internally and 

572
00:29:56,600 --> 00:30:00,800
externally as well. 
And so nobody understands that 

573
00:30:00,800 --> 00:30:03,080
though, like you try to talk to 
any regular person on the 

574
00:30:03,080 --> 00:30:04,640
street, they have no idea what's
happening. 

575
00:30:04,640 --> 00:30:06,800
All they know is that the 
groceries are expensive and that

576
00:30:06,800 --> 00:30:09,560
gas is expensive right now. 
And Dang, Trump, this war has 

577
00:30:09,560 --> 00:30:12,880
made gas expensive. 
And you know, and Dang, whatever

578
00:30:12,880 --> 00:30:15,320
political party, like they, you 
know, they just kind of want to 

579
00:30:15,320 --> 00:30:19,280
blame somebody. 
But it's a system, it's a system

580
00:30:19,280 --> 00:30:22,320
wide problem. 
It's not individual people that 

581
00:30:22,320 --> 00:30:24,480
are doing this. 
And we've been on this trend for

582
00:30:24,480 --> 00:30:27,000
the last basically 80 years or 
so. 

583
00:30:27,000 --> 00:30:30,120
And, and, and, and so we, we, 
we're reaching this point of 

584
00:30:30,120 --> 00:30:32,800
inflection where something 
massive has to happen to reset 

585
00:30:32,800 --> 00:30:35,280
these systems. 
And I see on the other side of 

586
00:30:35,280 --> 00:30:38,040
this that the obvious solution 
is Bitcoin and you obviously 

587
00:30:38,040 --> 00:30:41,560
have to get to a sound money 
standard again where people can 

588
00:30:41,560 --> 00:30:43,800
do work and then they have a 
money. 

589
00:30:44,040 --> 00:30:47,040
You know, it used to be gold, it
could still be gold and to some 

590
00:30:47,040 --> 00:30:50,240
degree, but also Bitcoin, which 
preserves and and Bitcoin 

591
00:30:50,240 --> 00:30:52,480
actually appreciates your 
purchasing power over time 

592
00:30:52,760 --> 00:30:55,160
versus gold, which basically 
just maintains your purchasing 

593
00:30:55,160 --> 00:30:58,080
power over time. 
For my European friends that 

594
00:30:58,080 --> 00:31:00,840
want to buy Bitcoin with ease, 
check out Relay. 

595
00:31:01,040 --> 00:31:03,800
I've been a long time fan and 
happy to partner up with what I 

596
00:31:03,800 --> 00:31:06,880
think is the best Bitcoin only 
platform for Europeans. 

597
00:31:07,320 --> 00:31:10,680
They offer a super simple 
beginner friendly app with no 

598
00:31:10,680 --> 00:31:14,960
distractions and no shit coins. 
You can do a quick one time 

599
00:31:14,960 --> 00:31:18,280
smash buy or set up automatic 
purchases when you're stacking 

600
00:31:18,280 --> 00:31:20,240
regularly. 
And here's the thing that 

601
00:31:20,240 --> 00:31:23,760
matters most. 
Relay is 100% self custody. 

602
00:31:23,760 --> 00:31:27,480
Every set you hold is yours, 
your keys, your coins. 

603
00:31:27,920 --> 00:31:30,160
If you want to get started, 
download the app file in my link

604
00:31:30,160 --> 00:31:34,160
below or in the description and 
use code BRUM that's BR AM at 

605
00:31:34,160 --> 00:31:36,360
checkout to get 10% of your 
fees. 

606
00:31:37,680 --> 00:31:39,640
Every bitcoiner hits this 
moment. 

607
00:31:39,840 --> 00:31:43,480
You need cash, maybe a house 
deposit, an emergency or a tax 

608
00:31:43,480 --> 00:31:46,680
bill and you're staring at your 
stack thinking, do I really want

609
00:31:46,680 --> 00:31:49,400
to sell this? 
Here's the thing, you don't have

610
00:31:49,400 --> 00:31:50,680
to. 
You can borrow against your 

611
00:31:50,680 --> 00:31:53,240
Bitcoin instead. 
So there's also no taxable event

612
00:31:53,240 --> 00:31:55,640
and your stack can keep on 
stacking. 

613
00:31:55,920 --> 00:31:58,960
This is where Firefish comes in,
a peer-to-peer marketplace for 

614
00:31:58,960 --> 00:32:02,480
Bitcoin backed loans. 
And Firefish isn't a lender. 

615
00:32:02,480 --> 00:32:05,440
They built the protocol that 
makes this all possible, which 

616
00:32:05,440 --> 00:32:09,520
is exactly why they never ever 
have to touch your Bitcoin 

617
00:32:09,880 --> 00:32:12,320
during your loan. 
Your Bitcoin sits in an on chain

618
00:32:12,320 --> 00:32:14,520
multi 6 secured by open source 
code. 

619
00:32:14,640 --> 00:32:17,320
You can easily create a loan 
request with your desired 

620
00:32:17,320 --> 00:32:19,960
amount, duration and interest 
rate and share it on their 

621
00:32:19,960 --> 00:32:23,920
marketplace at firefish dot IO. 
When you get matched and decide 

622
00:32:23,920 --> 00:32:27,520
to accept a loan offer, you can 
use code Brom to get 30% of your

623
00:32:27,520 --> 00:32:30,720
first loans fees. 
That's firefish dot IO and. 

624
00:32:31,440 --> 00:32:34,360
You've spent a very long time 
kind of training yourself for 

625
00:32:34,360 --> 00:32:36,120
this, you know, pattern 
recognition. 

626
00:32:37,480 --> 00:32:40,440
So when you look at at all of 
this stuff that we're talking 

627
00:32:40,440 --> 00:32:44,000
about, what, what do you think 
that you are seeing that others 

628
00:32:44,280 --> 00:32:46,160
are, are missing? 
Like what? 

629
00:32:46,480 --> 00:32:49,760
What underpins your current 
thesis that that you think not a

630
00:32:49,760 --> 00:32:54,160
lot of people see? 
Let's see so, so it goes back to

631
00:32:54,160 --> 00:32:57,160
some of the things we've talked 
about already is I think that 

632
00:32:57,160 --> 00:33:01,160
the most of the world is a has 
already started to figure out 

633
00:33:01,360 --> 00:33:06,880
that financialized assets have 
kind of had their heyday and 

634
00:33:06,880 --> 00:33:09,200
they've peaked already and 
they're rolling over. 

635
00:33:09,680 --> 00:33:14,400
And so people want sound money 
and they want hard assets and 

636
00:33:14,400 --> 00:33:17,800
they, and they don't believe 
that the Western world 

637
00:33:17,800 --> 00:33:21,960
governments are going to be able
to repay their debts in anything

638
00:33:21,960 --> 00:33:24,040
sound. 
And so they're, they're starting

639
00:33:24,040 --> 00:33:26,040
to get out of that. 
So that drives a lot of what I 

640
00:33:26,040 --> 00:33:28,920
do as a fund manager. 
So, so whereas like in 

641
00:33:28,920 --> 00:33:32,960
2020-2021, I was maybe focused 
like on these, you know, tech 

642
00:33:32,960 --> 00:33:36,320
companies and all things 
financial, like anything that 

643
00:33:36,320 --> 00:33:41,560
basically did well because of 
monetary stimulus, quantitative 

644
00:33:41,560 --> 00:33:45,000
using those types of things. 
Now what I've done is pivoted to

645
00:33:45,000 --> 00:33:48,120
this sort of hard asset focus. 
So looking at different 

646
00:33:48,120 --> 00:33:50,080
commodities, you know, China 
figured this out all the way 

647
00:33:50,080 --> 00:33:53,200
back in like 2014. 
They started making changes. 

648
00:33:53,200 --> 00:33:56,200
So instead of they had all these
surpluses and they had been just

649
00:33:56,200 --> 00:33:58,560
buying U.S. 
Treasuries as their primary way 

650
00:33:58,560 --> 00:34:01,640
to store their surpluses. 
In 2014, they thought, you know 

651
00:34:01,640 --> 00:34:03,560
what, we're going to stop doing 
that and we're going to, you 

652
00:34:03,560 --> 00:34:06,360
know, because we don't think 
this is going to last too much 

653
00:34:06,360 --> 00:34:08,920
longer what the US is doing. 
So we're going to front run it. 

654
00:34:08,920 --> 00:34:10,920
So they started buying hard 
assets. 

655
00:34:10,920 --> 00:34:13,920
They started stockpiling 
commodities all throughout 

656
00:34:13,920 --> 00:34:15,920
China. 
They obviously have had a super 

657
00:34:15,920 --> 00:34:19,520
robust energy infrastructure, 
manufacturing infrastructure as 

658
00:34:19,520 --> 00:34:22,120
well. 
They made investments all across

659
00:34:22,120 --> 00:34:23,679
the world. 
They tried to do it in the US, 

660
00:34:23,679 --> 00:34:25,080
but we've kind of pushed them 
back. 

661
00:34:25,880 --> 00:34:29,120
But you know, all throughout 
Central South America, Africa, 

662
00:34:29,120 --> 00:34:32,600
Asia as well, they've made a lot
of investments and kind of form 

663
00:34:32,600 --> 00:34:37,520
their own alliances. 
And so as more of the world has 

664
00:34:37,520 --> 00:34:41,600
figured that out, what happens 
is the flows of liquidity start 

665
00:34:41,600 --> 00:34:43,480
to move in these different 
directions. 

666
00:34:43,480 --> 00:34:46,360
So whereas before it was just 
all moving into basically the 

667
00:34:46,360 --> 00:34:50,719
mega cap tech stocks, right, the
Meg 7 stocks is all including 

668
00:34:50,719 --> 00:34:52,880
global central banks. 
We're putting their a lot of 

669
00:34:52,880 --> 00:34:54,719
their assets into these 
equities. 

670
00:34:55,080 --> 00:34:58,440
Now it's all switching over. 
So it's going into gold again, 

671
00:34:58,440 --> 00:35:02,320
we're watching gold like 
skyrocket move, going parabolic 

672
00:35:02,880 --> 00:35:06,200
for, you know, foreign reserves,
while U.S. 

673
00:35:06,200 --> 00:35:08,920
Treasuries are declining 
parabolically as well. 

674
00:35:08,920 --> 00:35:11,480
So it's it's falling off, Gold 
is rising. 

675
00:35:11,480 --> 00:35:13,080
And I think that trend is only 
just begun. 

676
00:35:13,080 --> 00:35:14,720
And that's going to continue to 
expand. 

677
00:35:15,760 --> 00:35:18,080
I think as more and more people 
figure this out, they're going 

678
00:35:18,080 --> 00:35:21,520
to continue to realize that 
these traditional financial 

679
00:35:21,520 --> 00:35:24,600
assets they've been holding like
treasuries, like any kind of 

680
00:35:24,600 --> 00:35:29,640
debt, for the most part, like 
most equities, they just can't 

681
00:35:29,640 --> 00:35:32,560
hold water anymore against this 
debasement that's coming. 

682
00:35:32,560 --> 00:35:37,040
So as we see more financial 
repression occurring, we're 

683
00:35:37,040 --> 00:35:38,480
we're going to continue to see 
that shift. 

684
00:35:38,480 --> 00:35:41,000
And I think one thing that we're
what's super interesting as an 

685
00:35:41,000 --> 00:35:43,560
institutional investor is 
watching how institutional 

686
00:35:43,560 --> 00:35:46,680
investors rotate out of 
different assets. 

687
00:35:46,680 --> 00:35:49,680
So it, it's like they, they go 
all in on something and then 

688
00:35:49,680 --> 00:35:51,920
when they feel like they've 
milked that asset enough, they 

689
00:35:51,920 --> 00:35:54,600
sort of just switch over and 
they say move their gains over. 

690
00:35:54,600 --> 00:35:58,280
So they, so it was gold and then
it was gold miners and silver 

691
00:35:58,280 --> 00:35:59,960
and silver miners and those kind
of things. 

692
00:35:59,960 --> 00:36:01,640
And everybody was just going 
crazy for it. 

693
00:36:01,920 --> 00:36:04,680
And then it just shifted and it 
kind of took the lifeblood away 

694
00:36:04,680 --> 00:36:06,440
from that and it shifted out of 
that. 

695
00:36:06,440 --> 00:36:09,600
And then it's been shifting into
all things AI related. 

696
00:36:09,600 --> 00:36:12,080
So we're going to continue to 
see that I think happen for the 

697
00:36:12,080 --> 00:36:17,000
next 5 to 10 years or so. 
AI, energy, infrastructure, 

698
00:36:17,000 --> 00:36:19,120
military industrial complex 
investments, they're going to 

699
00:36:19,120 --> 00:36:21,520
ebb and flow, but continue to go
up into the right because 

700
00:36:21,520 --> 00:36:23,640
they're being supported by their
their governments. 

701
00:36:24,600 --> 00:36:27,720
But right now, I think we're 
seeing a real rotation back into

702
00:36:27,720 --> 00:36:30,280
Bitcoin right now. 
So getting back to your question

703
00:36:30,280 --> 00:36:34,200
from, you know, a while back, 
gold front runs it for whatever 

704
00:36:34,200 --> 00:36:36,720
reason, but now it looks like 
the shift is happening back 

705
00:36:36,720 --> 00:36:39,360
where Bitcoin had been just sort
of in the doldrums, but now it 

706
00:36:39,360 --> 00:36:42,400
looks like it's formed a real 
bottom and it's really starting 

707
00:36:42,400 --> 00:36:44,560
to strengthen. 
So hopefully that continues at 

708
00:36:44,560 --> 00:36:48,320
at least as of today, we're 
sitting at what 81,000 and it's 

709
00:36:48,320 --> 00:36:51,680
starting to retake a lot of it. 
It's it's regaining short and 

710
00:36:51,680 --> 00:36:54,160
medium term momentum. 
It's just about to retake its 

711
00:36:54,160 --> 00:36:58,400
200 day moving average, which is
right now sitting at about 

712
00:36:58,400 --> 00:37:01,280
83,400. 
So that will be another big 

713
00:37:01,280 --> 00:37:03,280
sign. 
So for a lot of longer term 

714
00:37:03,280 --> 00:37:06,760
traders, they look at that 200 
day moving average and if like 

715
00:37:06,760 --> 00:37:09,760
if we can regain that, that 
means it's officially long term 

716
00:37:09,760 --> 00:37:13,400
bullish momentum. 
So they'll start scaling in as 

717
00:37:13,400 --> 00:37:14,680
well. 
So we'll see if it holds. 

718
00:37:14,680 --> 00:37:16,960
I'm just, you know, just making 
observations, I'm making 

719
00:37:16,960 --> 00:37:18,520
predictions. 
But for now, it looks like this 

720
00:37:18,520 --> 00:37:20,520
is actually a real rotation 
that's taking hold. 

721
00:37:21,360 --> 00:37:25,160
I also saw now the majority of 
short term holders is in profit,

722
00:37:25,160 --> 00:37:28,440
which is always also a really, 
really good sign. 

723
00:37:28,440 --> 00:37:31,080
Like that was the first time in 
in quite some time. 

724
00:37:31,080 --> 00:37:33,680
And and yeah, to add to what you
said, I, I also think it's 

725
00:37:33,680 --> 00:37:37,960
interesting you see city, what 
is it City Bank and JP Morgan, 

726
00:37:37,960 --> 00:37:39,720
etcetera, like moving into 
Bitcoin. 

727
00:37:39,720 --> 00:37:43,240
I like what you said about 
milking a certain cow, right? 

728
00:37:43,240 --> 00:37:46,680
I mean, eventually they're all 
capital allocators that have to,

729
00:37:47,000 --> 00:37:49,560
well, the, the main job is 
preserve the capital, right? 

730
00:37:49,560 --> 00:37:52,880
And the second is, is grow the 
capital. 

731
00:37:52,880 --> 00:37:57,760
And yeah, I, I always thought, 
you know, if if a random pleb 

732
00:37:57,760 --> 00:38:01,840
like me figured out that, you 
know, there's an end to stocks, 

733
00:38:01,840 --> 00:38:04,760
there's an end to Treasuries, I,
I can imagine that, you know, 

734
00:38:04,760 --> 00:38:07,760
the people that do this every 
day should figure this out too, 

735
00:38:07,760 --> 00:38:09,280
right? 
But there's probably, you know, 

736
00:38:09,280 --> 00:38:12,600
there's more, there's more 
things for them to arrange 

737
00:38:12,600 --> 00:38:15,080
before they can actually move 
into something like like 

738
00:38:15,080 --> 00:38:18,360
Bitcoin, right? 
Like the first of proxies as in 

739
00:38:18,360 --> 00:38:21,800
the ETFs, rather than, you know,
just just spot Bitcoin. 

740
00:38:21,960 --> 00:38:24,800
Do you think that will change 
actually like that, that these 

741
00:38:24,800 --> 00:38:28,160
kinds of entities they, they 
will have like ETFs, but 

742
00:38:28,160 --> 00:38:32,360
eventually also hold, you know, 
just spot Bitcoin? 

743
00:38:33,480 --> 00:38:36,520
I would like to see that, but 
I'm not overly confident that 

744
00:38:36,520 --> 00:38:38,240
will happen. 
I think the way that governments

745
00:38:38,240 --> 00:38:41,360
work, as they want to have their
tentacles in everything, they 

746
00:38:41,360 --> 00:38:43,520
want to have some control over 
it. 

747
00:38:43,520 --> 00:38:48,200
So I think that government 
regulators and tax authorities 

748
00:38:48,200 --> 00:38:55,360
will continue to encourage or 
coerce people to get into things

749
00:38:55,360 --> 00:39:00,000
like ETFs, you know, Bitcoin 
proxies themselves to have them 

750
00:39:00,200 --> 00:39:03,480
centralized on brokerage 
platform so they can have sort 

751
00:39:03,480 --> 00:39:07,480
of access and oversight to them.
And I think that most of it 

752
00:39:07,480 --> 00:39:10,480
seems to be lip service where 
they're OK with people holding 

753
00:39:10,480 --> 00:39:14,200
it privately, holding their own 
private keys and things because 

754
00:39:14,200 --> 00:39:16,920
they it's outside of the system.
So they don't like things 

755
00:39:16,920 --> 00:39:21,240
outside of the system. 
So far we've tolerated it here 

756
00:39:21,240 --> 00:39:25,000
in the US and depending on who's
in charge, it's more or less 

757
00:39:25,000 --> 00:39:26,320
tolerated. 
But I mean, the last 

758
00:39:26,320 --> 00:39:29,440
administration was extremely 
opposed to anything like that, 

759
00:39:29,440 --> 00:39:32,440
any private ownership and, and 
tried to shut everything down, 

760
00:39:32,440 --> 00:39:34,920
mixers and, you know, and, and 
didn't like any of it. 

761
00:39:35,240 --> 00:39:38,360
So we're, this current 
administration is more in favor 

762
00:39:38,360 --> 00:39:40,680
of it, but who knows what the 
next administration and who 

763
00:39:40,680 --> 00:39:42,920
knows what the next election 
cycle will bring about. 

764
00:39:42,920 --> 00:39:46,400
So I think in general, 
governments want to have control

765
00:39:46,400 --> 00:39:49,000
over everything as much as 
possible as possible and it's up

766
00:39:49,000 --> 00:39:53,240
to the people to resist and to 
find sort of a happy medium of 

767
00:39:53,240 --> 00:39:55,120
what you can do. 
So I encourage all Bitcoiners 

768
00:39:55,120 --> 00:39:57,960
like to continue to hold your 
own Bitcoin, hold your own keys,

769
00:39:57,960 --> 00:40:01,520
you know, run a node, do all 
those sorts of things as long as

770
00:40:01,680 --> 00:40:03,400
you're able to and, and willing 
to do that. 

771
00:40:03,840 --> 00:40:07,400
Yeah, Well, this is a nice 
bridge to a question I got from 

772
00:40:08,320 --> 00:40:10,480
from X. 
There was someone who asked what

773
00:40:10,480 --> 00:40:13,920
are the biggest risks to Bitcoin
specifically within the US? 

774
00:40:13,920 --> 00:40:19,400
Like do you see a modern, you 
know, 61-O2 gold seizure order 

775
00:40:19,400 --> 00:40:22,720
as something that is, you know, 
could be an actual threat? 

776
00:40:22,720 --> 00:40:24,920
You know, you kind of just 
mentioned, you know, they, they,

777
00:40:24,960 --> 00:40:27,840
they want you to buy 
decentralized forms of, of 

778
00:40:27,840 --> 00:40:32,560
Bitcoin Or do you think, you 
know, the Bitcoin ETF kind of 

779
00:40:32,560 --> 00:40:35,240
made Bitcoin too big to fail? 
You know, this is something you 

780
00:40:35,240 --> 00:40:37,640
shouldn't touch. 
You know what are what are your 

781
00:40:37,640 --> 00:40:39,760
thoughts? 
So regarding AI, don't think 

782
00:40:39,760 --> 00:40:42,720
A61-O2 is likely. 
And I think the reason is, is 

783
00:40:42,720 --> 00:40:46,320
because back in the 30's the US 
dollar was actually on a gold 

784
00:40:46,320 --> 00:40:49,000
standard still. 
And so the reason they did what 

785
00:40:49,000 --> 00:40:53,400
they did was basically to 
because it it it, they wanted to

786
00:40:53,400 --> 00:40:57,320
devalue or debase the dollar 
massively in order to spur the 

787
00:40:57,320 --> 00:41:00,120
economy. 
So they did what they did 

788
00:41:00,200 --> 00:41:03,240
because the dollar was 
specifically linked to gold, 

789
00:41:03,640 --> 00:41:07,360
because Bitcoin is not currently
or gold are not currently tied 

790
00:41:07,360 --> 00:41:09,440
to the dollar or the dollar is 
not tied to them. 

791
00:41:09,720 --> 00:41:12,240
I think something like that is 
very unlikely. 

792
00:41:12,720 --> 00:41:15,560
But to answer that question, I 
think what's more likely is just

793
00:41:15,560 --> 00:41:18,480
what we sort of touched on is I 
think the government will want 

794
00:41:18,480 --> 00:41:23,760
to consolidate Bitcoin in ETF's,
in brokerage houses, in banks. 

795
00:41:23,760 --> 00:41:26,200
They're going to make it easier 
and easier for like banks to 

796
00:41:26,200 --> 00:41:28,600
custody Bitcoin and people are 
going to start doing that and be

797
00:41:28,600 --> 00:41:32,000
enticed to do that. 
And then I think the, the real 

798
00:41:32,000 --> 00:41:33,960
risk is coming. 
So in a fourth turning, which 

799
00:41:33,960 --> 00:41:35,520
again, I'm a, I'm a big adherent
of that. 

800
00:41:35,520 --> 00:41:38,440
I think we're heading towards 
like major war and I think we're

801
00:41:38,440 --> 00:41:41,680
headed towards massive, even 
more massive government 

802
00:41:41,680 --> 00:41:45,080
borrowing and spending and 
financial repression that it's 

803
00:41:45,080 --> 00:41:46,360
going to necessarily come from 
that. 

804
00:41:46,760 --> 00:41:49,960
And I think we're going to see 
more and more pushes to tax 

805
00:41:50,120 --> 00:41:52,160
everything. 
And so we're already seeing that

806
00:41:52,160 --> 00:41:55,200
in some states around the US 
where these billionaire wealth 

807
00:41:55,200 --> 00:41:57,280
taxes, it always starts like 
that always starts with this 

808
00:41:57,280 --> 00:42:00,120
select group of tiny people and 
people like, yeah, tax the rich,

809
00:42:00,120 --> 00:42:02,880
tax the billionaires. 
But then it starts to expand 

810
00:42:02,880 --> 00:42:05,040
across basically the entire 
population. 

811
00:42:05,280 --> 00:42:09,000
So like back in the 40s around 
World War 2 and just after World

812
00:42:09,000 --> 00:42:12,920
War 2, the the income tax rate 
in the US went above 90% for the

813
00:42:12,920 --> 00:42:15,720
highest earners. 
And I think that it's likely 

814
00:42:15,720 --> 00:42:17,960
that we start to trend in that 
direction again. 

815
00:42:17,960 --> 00:42:21,440
And so you can't tax Bitcoin 
that's sitting in cold storage, 

816
00:42:21,720 --> 00:42:23,640
right? 
So that you can only tax it if 

817
00:42:23,640 --> 00:42:27,160
it's sort of on a, on a system 
in a brokerage house and in an 

818
00:42:27,160 --> 00:42:30,320
ETF, those kind of things. 
And once it's there, then the 

819
00:42:30,320 --> 00:42:33,240
government can put their 
tentacles on it and, and extract

820
00:42:33,240 --> 00:42:35,520
taxes through quarters, you 
know, whatever, whatever they 

821
00:42:35,520 --> 00:42:37,520
do. 
So I think that's going to be 

822
00:42:37,520 --> 00:42:40,360
the most, the biggest risk to 
Bitcoin is Bitcoiners may make, 

823
00:42:40,440 --> 00:42:45,240
you know, a lot of profits over 
time, but it may be at risk to a

824
00:42:45,240 --> 00:42:48,440
government at war, especially if
there's some sort of global war 

825
00:42:49,240 --> 00:42:51,600
where they're going to be like, 
look, if you're, if you're a 

826
00:42:51,600 --> 00:42:55,160
patriot, you will give us 90% of
your gains that you've made over

827
00:42:55,160 --> 00:42:56,840
the last 10 years. 
And if you're not, you know, 

828
00:42:56,840 --> 00:42:58,520
we're going to throw you in jail
and penalize you. 

829
00:42:58,520 --> 00:43:01,080
So it's your choice. 
I think that's a decision. 

830
00:43:01,760 --> 00:43:04,600
To me, that's the biggest risk 
probably in the next five years 

831
00:43:04,600 --> 00:43:08,800
or so. 
So with, with all that we talked

832
00:43:08,800 --> 00:43:12,320
about, right? 
And, and I would say adding in a

833
00:43:12,320 --> 00:43:15,160
new Fed governor, you know, 
Kevin Wash, who described 

834
00:43:15,160 --> 00:43:19,240
Bitcoin as, you know, new gold, 
I think for younger generations,

835
00:43:19,360 --> 00:43:21,520
he's coming in. 
There's these growing debt 

836
00:43:22,040 --> 00:43:25,800
payment obligations this year. 
The Clarity Act looks like it's 

837
00:43:25,800 --> 00:43:29,680
going to pass you, you know, of 
course, Iran war, yen carry 

838
00:43:29,680 --> 00:43:34,120
trade unwinding, you know, it is
just so logical to buy Bitcoin, 

839
00:43:34,920 --> 00:43:39,600
but we're still at 801K. 
What would be an actual 

840
00:43:39,600 --> 00:43:42,080
inflection point like what you 
just said? 

841
00:43:42,080 --> 00:43:44,920
Or is that too late? 
You know what, what, what do you

842
00:43:44,920 --> 00:43:46,440
think? 
There's, there's so many signals

843
00:43:46,440 --> 00:43:48,960
right now and it's just, yeah, 
again, I I just find it 

844
00:43:48,960 --> 00:43:50,360
fascinating that people are 
still asleep. 

845
00:43:50,360 --> 00:43:52,760
But like, sure, what would you 
say could be an inflection 

846
00:43:52,760 --> 00:43:54,520
point? 
Well, based on historical 

847
00:43:54,520 --> 00:43:57,880
precedent, some, we've already 
seen some inflection points and 

848
00:43:57,880 --> 00:44:00,520
we've talked about them. 
So manufacturing starting to 

849
00:44:00,520 --> 00:44:04,280
take off again is tends to be 
strongly correlative to the 

850
00:44:04,280 --> 00:44:08,520
price of Bitcoin when you see 
actual financial repression. 

851
00:44:08,520 --> 00:44:12,120
So when inflation is running 
hotter than the prevailing 

852
00:44:12,120 --> 00:44:16,080
interest rates, Bitcoin sniffs 
that out and tends to do very 

853
00:44:16,080 --> 00:44:17,560
well. 
And it looks like we just passed

854
00:44:17,560 --> 00:44:20,040
that inflection point. 
So I was still waffling kind of,

855
00:44:20,080 --> 00:44:22,760
you know, leaning bearish based 
on things. 

856
00:44:22,760 --> 00:44:27,320
But when I see manufacturing 
continuing to expand and when I 

857
00:44:27,320 --> 00:44:30,520
see financial repression 
actually starting to happen in 

858
00:44:30,520 --> 00:44:33,560
real time and including on the 
short end of the, the yield 

859
00:44:33,560 --> 00:44:36,280
curve, to me, those are real 
inflection points. 

860
00:44:36,280 --> 00:44:38,360
And so I think that we're going 
to start seeing that and what 

861
00:44:38,360 --> 00:44:41,280
brings like normal people in who
don't think about Bitcoin or who

862
00:44:41,280 --> 00:44:43,480
don't care, they just care about
price action. 

863
00:44:43,640 --> 00:44:46,480
Once we start hit saying, Oh my 
gosh, Bitcoin, it got back to 

864
00:44:46,480 --> 00:44:48,640
100K. 
Oh my gosh, it's a, it's a new 

865
00:44:48,640 --> 00:44:49,920
all time high, those kind of 
things. 

866
00:44:50,200 --> 00:44:52,840
That's what gets the normies who
don't think that's that'll get 

867
00:44:52,840 --> 00:44:54,600
them interested again in 
Bitcoin. 

868
00:44:54,600 --> 00:44:56,640
And they've been, you know, they
sold it all and don't care. 

869
00:44:56,640 --> 00:44:58,760
And they, they thought, well, 
maybe it is going to zero. 

870
00:44:58,760 --> 00:45:01,160
I'm just going to sell it all. 
They'll all come back in when 

871
00:45:01,160 --> 00:45:03,880
it's back above like 1:20 or 
1:30 or so. 

872
00:45:04,560 --> 00:45:06,800
And so it's just how these 
cycles always work. 

873
00:45:07,280 --> 00:45:11,080
Yeah, I've talked to many people
whose story is similar to this, 

874
00:45:11,080 --> 00:45:15,400
right. 
Like I bought at price X, then 

875
00:45:15,400 --> 00:45:19,960
you know, it's went down, I got 
scared, I sold it went further 

876
00:45:19,960 --> 00:45:21,720
down. 
I felt really great. 

877
00:45:21,720 --> 00:45:25,400
And then, you know, years later,
I looked at Bitcoin again and it

878
00:45:25,400 --> 00:45:28,560
was higher than, you know, when 
I bought it and I realized it 

879
00:45:28,560 --> 00:45:31,080
still didn't die. 
It's not a Ponzi and whatever. 

880
00:45:31,080 --> 00:45:34,920
And then I actually, you know, 
started to study what this is 

881
00:45:35,240 --> 00:45:38,120
because I just kind of wanted to
redeem myself for missing 

882
00:45:38,120 --> 00:45:40,960
something, right? 
And I agree, this probably 

883
00:45:40,960 --> 00:45:43,560
happens at every price level. 
Like this is going to happen 

884
00:45:43,560 --> 00:45:48,280
AT56700K back to 300. 
You know, people will be like, 

885
00:45:48,960 --> 00:45:51,800
OK, now it's really over. 
And then, you know, three years 

886
00:45:51,800 --> 00:45:54,600
later, it's at a million and, 
and, and, and they wake up 

887
00:45:54,600 --> 00:45:57,000
again. 
So, yeah, again, you know, I, 

888
00:45:57,360 --> 00:45:59,680
yeah, I use the word fascinating
and entertaining a lot. 

889
00:45:59,680 --> 00:46:02,400
I just think it's. 
So it's just so fun to follow 

890
00:46:02,400 --> 00:46:04,360
this. 
And you see the repetitive 

891
00:46:04,360 --> 00:46:06,640
pattern. 
But you know, with every one of 

892
00:46:06,640 --> 00:46:09,040
these, you know, kind of like 
cycles or moments, it's kind of 

893
00:46:09,040 --> 00:46:10,640
like this little step change, 
right? 

894
00:46:10,640 --> 00:46:13,360
Like there's always a, a, a 
bigger group of people that 

895
00:46:13,360 --> 00:46:16,760
stick around and then and so on 
and so on and and, and and so 

896
00:46:16,760 --> 00:46:19,440
on. 
And yeah, the, the underlying 

897
00:46:19,440 --> 00:46:23,120
thesis is just getting stronger 
and validated basically every 

898
00:46:23,120 --> 00:46:25,080
day, I would say at least every 
month. 

899
00:46:25,440 --> 00:46:28,040
You know, if, if you, if you 
just talk about the monetary 

900
00:46:28,040 --> 00:46:31,120
debasement so slowly but surely 
we're, we're just going to see 

901
00:46:31,120 --> 00:46:32,640
it. 
Yeah. 

902
00:46:32,640 --> 00:46:36,040
Do do you think, you know, we, 
we, we talked about this, right.

903
00:46:36,040 --> 00:46:40,240
So, so Bitcoin is kind of 
lagging this, this thesis for, 

904
00:46:41,240 --> 00:46:42,920
let's say, a big enough group of
people, right? 

905
00:46:42,920 --> 00:46:45,200
The debasement of of the dollar 
and other currencies. 

906
00:46:45,840 --> 00:46:51,520
Do you think, you know, 80K is 
still a gift? 

907
00:46:52,800 --> 00:46:55,960
Do you think eventually we 
could, you know, go back to 58K 

908
00:46:55,960 --> 00:46:57,560
gang? 
You know that that would even be

909
00:46:57,560 --> 00:47:00,560
a bigger gift in my opinion. 
But like, you know, it's 80K 

910
00:47:00,560 --> 00:47:04,040
extremely undervalued. 
Fair, you know, What do you 

911
00:47:04,040 --> 00:47:06,320
think? 
So, so I'm, I'm also an adherent

912
00:47:06,320 --> 00:47:09,280
in the power law concept of 
Bitcoin and I think it does 

913
00:47:09,280 --> 00:47:11,560
follow this. 
So, so I believe that that model

914
00:47:11,560 --> 00:47:14,840
is accurate until it's not. 
So some point it may breakdown, 

915
00:47:15,280 --> 00:47:18,720
but for the last 16 years it has
been accurate. 

916
00:47:19,360 --> 00:47:22,200
And so until it breaks down, I 
think that that's a good model 

917
00:47:22,200 --> 00:47:23,840
to go by. 
And that's what I get a lot of 

918
00:47:23,840 --> 00:47:27,480
grief for like these calls that 
I make when when, you know, I so

919
00:47:27,480 --> 00:47:30,760
Bitcoin I think moves according 
to this power law, but it's 

920
00:47:30,760 --> 00:47:33,160
going up and down in this band 
over time. 

921
00:47:33,720 --> 00:47:36,360
And so when people ask me, what 
do you think the price get hit 

922
00:47:36,360 --> 00:47:38,880
in this given year? 
And so in my mind, I think, OK, 

923
00:47:38,880 --> 00:47:42,600
so if we have liquidity doing 
really well and global 

924
00:47:42,600 --> 00:47:46,360
manufacturing doing really well 
and animal spirits taking off, 

925
00:47:46,360 --> 00:47:49,120
so everybody is using leverage, 
then bitcoins going to get to 

926
00:47:49,200 --> 00:47:52,040
the top end of this channel. 
And so that's what people so I 

927
00:47:52,040 --> 00:47:53,600
get. 
And so that whole like everybody

928
00:47:53,600 --> 00:47:57,160
use it as this headline for me 
back in 2024 and 25 it could hit

929
00:47:57,160 --> 00:48:01,920
470 five, 475,000 and that's all
that is, is the top of this 

930
00:48:01,920 --> 00:48:03,400
channel. 
So you can go online. 

931
00:48:03,400 --> 00:48:07,200
Top 1% the one percentile so if.
Everything is working right. 

932
00:48:07,200 --> 00:48:11,360
If the economy is just ripping, 
if liquidity is flowing, if 

933
00:48:11,360 --> 00:48:14,800
leverage is going bananas and 
mark markets risk assets are 

934
00:48:14,800 --> 00:48:18,040
just going bananas, Bitcoin will
be at the top end of that and 

935
00:48:18,040 --> 00:48:20,760
that will always be true. 
And so so. 

936
00:48:20,760 --> 00:48:22,960
And the point is, sorry to 
interrupt that it happened 

937
00:48:22,960 --> 00:48:25,040
before, right? 
So if you look at the power law 

938
00:48:25,040 --> 00:48:27,800
and you have the channel, right,
it hits the top of the channel 

939
00:48:28,280 --> 00:48:30,880
maybe for a day or an hour, 
right? 

940
00:48:30,880 --> 00:48:33,320
But then you know. 
And then it falls down just as 

941
00:48:33,320 --> 00:48:36,520
fast as so it rises up and then 
it falls down just as fast and 

942
00:48:36,520 --> 00:48:38,360
it's terrible. 
It's that's the backside of the 

943
00:48:38,360 --> 00:48:43,360
hockey stick. 
And so likewise, if liquidity is

944
00:48:43,360 --> 00:48:46,640
not flowing and it's 
contracting, if the economy is 

945
00:48:46,640 --> 00:48:50,080
in a contraction or a recession 
or depression or you know, and 

946
00:48:50,080 --> 00:48:52,760
global manufacturing is 
contracting and there's no 

947
00:48:52,760 --> 00:48:55,560
leverage because not only are 
people not using leverage, 

948
00:48:55,560 --> 00:48:58,760
they're getting margin called 
and getting wiped out, which 

949
00:48:58,760 --> 00:49:01,600
we've experienced a little bit 
this year and we experienced 

950
00:49:01,600 --> 00:49:05,480
greatly in 2022. 
We also did back in 2018, we 

951
00:49:05,480 --> 00:49:09,800
also did back in 2014. 
So in 2026, we've also had this 

952
00:49:09,800 --> 00:49:12,360
basically bear market where 
factors were kind of working 

953
00:49:12,360 --> 00:49:16,080
against it that manufacturing 
was still kind of didn't. 

954
00:49:16,080 --> 00:49:19,280
We didn't know if it was going 
to remain in contraction and all

955
00:49:19,280 --> 00:49:21,000
those kind of factors. 
So it's going to be at the 

956
00:49:21,000 --> 00:49:23,520
bottom end of that Channel. 
So when people ask me like, 

957
00:49:23,520 --> 00:49:25,640
could it go lower? 
I don't think it's going to go 

958
00:49:25,640 --> 00:49:28,600
lower because this has been 
pretty accurate throughout this 

959
00:49:28,600 --> 00:49:30,840
whole time and why doesn't it go
be so there. 

960
00:49:30,880 --> 00:49:33,800
So right now the lower bound of 
this channel and and by the way,

961
00:49:33,800 --> 00:49:37,960
props to Giovanni who came up 
with this kind of who has 

962
00:49:37,960 --> 00:49:41,440
popularized the whole concept 
and he has a start that anybody 

963
00:49:41,440 --> 00:49:44,560
can go look at online, which I 
still think is a fantastic model

964
00:49:45,240 --> 00:49:47,400
right now. 
The lower bound of this boundary

965
00:49:47,400 --> 00:49:50,960
is basically 55,000. 
And so at the beginning of this 

966
00:49:50,960 --> 00:49:56,120
year, I said, I think Bitcoin is
unlikely in 2026 to go below and

967
00:49:56,120 --> 00:49:58,760
stay below 50,000 throughout the
entire year. 

968
00:49:58,960 --> 00:50:03,120
And I think it's unlikely to go 
above and stay above 700,000. 

969
00:50:03,120 --> 00:50:06,480
That's basically the top end of 
this band at the end of 2026. 

970
00:50:06,480 --> 00:50:08,640
That's all I'm doing when I'm 
saying these sorts of things. 

971
00:50:08,880 --> 00:50:11,200
So if the economy is booming, it
could get this high. 

972
00:50:11,200 --> 00:50:14,240
And if the economy is terrible 
and things are everything's 

973
00:50:14,240 --> 00:50:17,320
going wrong and we're at war and
blah, blah, blah, it'll be at 

974
00:50:17,320 --> 00:50:19,600
the lower end. 
And so to your question now 

975
00:50:19,600 --> 00:50:22,200
going back, is 80,000 a good 
price to buy? 

976
00:50:22,280 --> 00:50:24,840
We're very close still to the 
bottom of this channel. 

977
00:50:25,160 --> 00:50:28,360
I think at the end of this year,
the price of Bitcoin is unlikely

978
00:50:28,360 --> 00:50:32,040
to be below 70,000 based again, 
on the power law in these 

979
00:50:32,040 --> 00:50:34,720
channels. 
I will be very surprised if it 

980
00:50:34,720 --> 00:50:36,320
goes below. 
It's not to say that it can't, 

981
00:50:36,320 --> 00:50:38,280
it's to say that I would be 
surprised if it is. 

982
00:50:39,160 --> 00:50:43,800
So 80,000, yes, if you only have
about a 10 to 15% downside from 

983
00:50:43,800 --> 00:50:46,960
here over the very long term, 
that's a pretty good risk 

984
00:50:46,960 --> 00:50:48,880
reward. 
If it's a downside of about 

985
00:50:48,880 --> 00:50:52,440
that, but in the next one to two
or three years, we could go up 

986
00:50:52,440 --> 00:50:57,320
to say 700,000 or 900,000 at the
end of 2027 or above a million 

987
00:50:57,320 --> 00:51:00,240
in 2028. 
That's a very good risk reward 

988
00:51:00,240 --> 00:51:02,120
if you're willing to just sit 
and hold it. 

989
00:51:02,360 --> 00:51:04,320
And what I like to tell people 
one last, cuz this is the 

990
00:51:04,320 --> 00:51:06,240
caveat. 
I like to say I, I look at these

991
00:51:06,240 --> 00:51:09,560
things cuz I'm a fund manager. 
So I'm trying to, to chop off 

992
00:51:09,560 --> 00:51:12,360
the left tail risk. 
Basically, if we, we, I don't 

993
00:51:12,360 --> 00:51:15,440
want to see 80% drawdowns in my 
hedge fund because you know, 

994
00:51:15,480 --> 00:51:17,680
Bitcoin and is, is crashing like
that. 

995
00:51:17,680 --> 00:51:20,160
So we, we basically cut it off 
with trailing stops. 

996
00:51:20,680 --> 00:51:24,880
Most people, I believe in 99% of
the world should just simply 

997
00:51:24,880 --> 00:51:26,960
view Bitcoin as your savings 
account. 

998
00:51:26,960 --> 00:51:29,200
So it's the way you save your 
purchasing power. 

999
00:51:29,480 --> 00:51:31,680
So I don't think people should 
trade Bitcoin. 

1000
00:51:31,680 --> 00:51:34,600
I think, and this is what I 
personally do individually, I 

1001
00:51:34,600 --> 00:51:38,040
just, if I get paid, I put it 
into Bitcoin, I save in Bitcoin 

1002
00:51:38,720 --> 00:51:41,360
and I don't care that it's well,
in fact, volatility, it's a good

1003
00:51:41,360 --> 00:51:43,520
thing when you're just dollar 
cost averaging because if it's 

1004
00:51:43,520 --> 00:51:46,000
spikes lower, you're buying it 
when it's spiking lower. 

1005
00:51:46,000 --> 00:51:49,160
So you're getting more sats for 
your dollar or whatever currency

1006
00:51:49,160 --> 00:51:51,840
you're using. 
So I, I'd recommend to all 

1007
00:51:51,840 --> 00:51:54,400
people just dollar cost average 
into it, just saving it. 

1008
00:51:54,400 --> 00:51:57,600
And I have a long term 
perspective, like think at least

1009
00:51:57,600 --> 00:52:01,560
in five years, but ideally 10 or
20 year time increments where 

1010
00:52:01,560 --> 00:52:03,680
you're just saving your 
purchasing power for the next 

1011
00:52:03,680 --> 00:52:05,760
decade or multiple decades. 
Yeah. 

1012
00:52:07,040 --> 00:52:10,080
So there's still this talk, you 
know, I just mentioned clarity 

1013
00:52:10,080 --> 00:52:13,400
ACT, but there's also still this
talk of US strategic Bitcoin 

1014
00:52:13,400 --> 00:52:18,280
Reserve. 
I've always thought that the 

1015
00:52:18,280 --> 00:52:26,280
kind of like Geo, like Geo, how 
do you say like like the global 

1016
00:52:26,280 --> 00:52:29,400
game theory between sovereigns, 
like the line between that 

1017
00:52:29,400 --> 00:52:33,480
actually kick starting from my 
mind is like extremely thin. 

1018
00:52:33,480 --> 00:52:35,960
And I I said this recently, 
right, like, you know, El 

1019
00:52:35,960 --> 00:52:39,400
Salvador buying OK, that, that, 
that, you know, I think it's 

1020
00:52:39,400 --> 00:52:43,040
amazing what's happening there. 
But that was was not a a serious

1021
00:52:43,040 --> 00:52:44,720
country, right? 
Like that was literally at the 

1022
00:52:44,800 --> 00:52:47,320
at the almost the bottom of the 
of the bottom. 

1023
00:52:48,440 --> 00:52:51,600
I think that if a somewhat 
serious country, let's say 

1024
00:52:51,600 --> 00:52:56,080
Czechoslovakia or, or, you know,
Poland or whatever, you know, 

1025
00:52:56,080 --> 00:52:59,760
starts buying Bitcoin that that 
it's already on because, you 

1026
00:52:59,760 --> 00:53:05,720
know, why would you let you know
a smaller, lesser country to, 

1027
00:53:05,760 --> 00:53:08,120
you know, whatever point of 
view, you know, I would compete 

1028
00:53:08,120 --> 00:53:11,480
you with with Bitcoin. 
Now there's still this US 

1029
00:53:11,480 --> 00:53:16,160
strategic Bitcoin Reserve talk. 
If that actually happens, do you

1030
00:53:16,160 --> 00:53:18,080
think that that will actually 
happens? 

1031
00:53:18,080 --> 00:53:21,200
Maybe that's the first question,
but like what happens after that

1032
00:53:21,200 --> 00:53:24,280
If and and do you agree with 
this line being kind of kind of 

1033
00:53:24,280 --> 00:53:26,000
thin? 
Yeah, as a global game theory. 

1034
00:53:26,000 --> 00:53:29,520
So first of all, we do have a 
strategic Bitcoin reserve, but 

1035
00:53:29,520 --> 00:53:33,400
it's with confiscated Bitcoin. 
So I don't like the way we've 

1036
00:53:33,400 --> 00:53:35,640
accumulated the Bitcoin we have.
We've taken it from. 

1037
00:53:35,640 --> 00:53:37,720
And unverified, right? 
Like exactly. 

1038
00:53:38,080 --> 00:53:39,840
We don't know how much it 
actually. 

1039
00:53:40,240 --> 00:53:42,280
Is right. 
Yeah, yeah, I, I, I do think 

1040
00:53:42,280 --> 00:53:46,200
I've seen people saying, you 
know, you can see the amounts we

1041
00:53:46,200 --> 00:53:47,160
have. 
I, I don't know. 

1042
00:53:47,160 --> 00:53:49,560
So I obviously I'm an outsider. 
I'm just looking in. 

1043
00:53:49,560 --> 00:53:52,760
I have no idea if the government
truly does have that or not. 

1044
00:53:53,040 --> 00:53:54,800
I just, I think they probably 
do. 

1045
00:53:54,800 --> 00:53:57,360
But but I think all of the 
Bitcoin that the government has,

1046
00:53:57,360 --> 00:54:00,560
it's taken from people and 
they've, because they said these

1047
00:54:00,560 --> 00:54:02,120
people are criminals, so they've
taken their Bitcoin. 

1048
00:54:02,400 --> 00:54:04,480
I don't like that, right. 
I want you to work for your 

1049
00:54:04,480 --> 00:54:08,160
Bitcoin or earn it. 
So that's one, two, I'll believe

1050
00:54:08,160 --> 00:54:11,480
that we, we're going to start 
buying Bitcoin as a country only

1051
00:54:11,480 --> 00:54:13,760
when I see it. 
I hear, you know, Cynthia Lemus 

1052
00:54:13,760 --> 00:54:16,360
has been talking for a couple 
years now about how they're, you

1053
00:54:16,360 --> 00:54:18,280
know, going to put this bill 
through Congress and they're 

1054
00:54:18,280 --> 00:54:19,920
blah, blah, blah. 
And everybody gets all excited 

1055
00:54:19,920 --> 00:54:23,480
and then it it goes nowhere. 
So, and I know there's a lot of 

1056
00:54:24,840 --> 00:54:27,280
animosity towards it. 
And a lot of the especially 

1057
00:54:27,280 --> 00:54:29,720
people on the left, the 
Elizabeth Warren people and her 

1058
00:54:29,720 --> 00:54:32,040
types, they fight this tooth and
nail. 

1059
00:54:32,040 --> 00:54:34,600
They hate, they hate the idea of
a Bitcoin strategic reserve 

1060
00:54:34,600 --> 00:54:37,360
because it gives validity to 
Bitcoin as an alternative to the

1061
00:54:37,440 --> 00:54:40,440
US dollar system. 
So I understand their point of 

1062
00:54:40,440 --> 00:54:41,960
view. 
I just think they're wrong and 

1063
00:54:41,960 --> 00:54:45,480
they're they're, they're trying 
to fight a technology whose time

1064
00:54:45,480 --> 00:54:46,760
has come. 
So they're going to lose 

1065
00:54:46,760 --> 00:54:49,200
eventually. 
I think embrace, embrace it 

1066
00:54:49,200 --> 00:54:52,520
while you can. 
So Step 3, as countries start to

1067
00:54:52,520 --> 00:54:55,480
do this, yes, game theory 
suggests that they will be in 

1068
00:54:55,480 --> 00:54:57,920
the pole position. 
So El Salvador is is making 

1069
00:54:57,920 --> 00:55:01,120
great strides in other countries
that are starting to do this, I 

1070
00:55:01,120 --> 00:55:04,920
think are very wise to do so. 
I think if the US started buying

1071
00:55:04,920 --> 00:55:09,200
Bitcoin strategically, like 
Congress mandates that we are 

1072
00:55:09,200 --> 00:55:12,760
going to buy X number of 
Bitcoin, that would be massively

1073
00:55:12,760 --> 00:55:14,560
bullish. 
And, and I think that would 

1074
00:55:14,560 --> 00:55:18,960
start off it would ignite this 
sort of race and this game 

1075
00:55:18,960 --> 00:55:20,960
theory. 
And I think, by the way, that we

1076
00:55:20,960 --> 00:55:25,000
should do that because Step 4 
is, you know, we have a lot of, 

1077
00:55:25,280 --> 00:55:29,040
we allegedly have a lot of gold 
reserves still here in the US, 

1078
00:55:29,160 --> 00:55:31,000
although we still haven't seen 
proof of it. 

1079
00:55:32,080 --> 00:55:35,200
For the most part, these other 
nations, the BRIC nations, 

1080
00:55:35,200 --> 00:55:38,920
right? 
So China, Russia and their their

1081
00:55:38,920 --> 00:55:41,400
colleagues, they're all saving 
in gold. 

1082
00:55:41,400 --> 00:55:44,440
They're all basically using gold
as their strategic reserve. 

1083
00:55:45,360 --> 00:55:48,400
I think the way to counter that 
would be to we're going to use 

1084
00:55:48,400 --> 00:55:51,000
and, and that would be a great 
way to revive the American 

1085
00:55:51,000 --> 00:55:54,280
spirit in the American psyche 
and the Western world psyche to 

1086
00:55:54,280 --> 00:55:56,680
say we are embracing freedom, 
money. 

1087
00:55:56,680 --> 00:55:58,920
We want what's best for our 
citizens. 

1088
00:55:59,640 --> 00:56:03,120
We do not, you know, we're anti 
communism, we're anti central 

1089
00:56:03,120 --> 00:56:05,240
control. 
So therefore we embrace Bitcoin 

1090
00:56:05,240 --> 00:56:08,560
and we encourage our citizens to
just like China encourages their

1091
00:56:08,560 --> 00:56:13,400
citizens to buy real estate and 
buy gold and you know, and India

1092
00:56:13,400 --> 00:56:17,960
does that for gold as well. 
I think America should and and 

1093
00:56:17,960 --> 00:56:20,200
then the rest of the Western 
world should encourage their 

1094
00:56:20,200 --> 00:56:23,680
citizens to actually buy Bitcoin
and promote Bitcoin. 

1095
00:56:23,840 --> 00:56:27,000
And I think that would be a way 
we could basically surge ahead 

1096
00:56:27,000 --> 00:56:29,400
or regain the lead. 
And if that, you know, we've 

1097
00:56:29,400 --> 00:56:32,280
lost a lot of ground over the 
last couple of decades, that 

1098
00:56:32,280 --> 00:56:35,280
would help put us back on a 
glide path towards success for 

1099
00:56:35,280 --> 00:56:38,440
the next several decades. 
But I'm not holding my breath. 

1100
00:56:38,680 --> 00:56:41,440
Like I said, I don't think we 
have true bitcoiners in the 

1101
00:56:41,440 --> 00:56:43,200
White House. 
I think they're crypto Bros who 

1102
00:56:43,200 --> 00:56:47,080
are disguised as bitcoiners 
pretending to be Bitcoiners. 

1103
00:56:47,080 --> 00:56:50,160
And so I just, I'll believe it 
when I see it, But as of now, I 

1104
00:56:50,160 --> 00:56:51,680
still don't believe it because I
haven't seen it. 

1105
00:56:52,280 --> 00:56:53,640
Yeah. 
All right. 

1106
00:56:53,720 --> 00:56:59,240
My my last question, what is a 
view you hold, you know about 

1107
00:56:59,240 --> 00:57:03,120
the next, let's say 3 to 510 
years that you think others 

1108
00:57:03,120 --> 00:57:05,920
think is absolutely insane, but 
for you it's perfectly. 

1109
00:57:05,920 --> 00:57:09,720
Clear Oh man, I could do a lot 
of things there. 

1110
00:57:11,480 --> 00:57:14,440
Well, I think one one thing 
we've touched on is I actually 

1111
00:57:14,440 --> 00:57:16,560
think World War 3 has already 
started. 

1112
00:57:16,720 --> 00:57:20,080
I believe we're in a fourth 
turning already and similar to 

1113
00:57:20,080 --> 00:57:23,320
the 19 and most Americans don't 
get this because a lot of 

1114
00:57:23,320 --> 00:57:26,200
Americans don't understand 
histories and I'm not making fun

1115
00:57:26,200 --> 00:57:28,400
of them. 
It's just like, that's just how 

1116
00:57:28,400 --> 00:57:31,320
we are. 
Most Americans think World War 2

1117
00:57:31,320 --> 00:57:34,480
started in 1941 once Pearl 
Harbor was bombed. 

1118
00:57:34,600 --> 00:57:37,560
But actually World War 2 started
in the mid 1930s. 

1119
00:57:38,040 --> 00:57:42,640
Japan was invading China, Italy 
was invading, I think northern 

1120
00:57:42,640 --> 00:57:46,400
Africa. 
Germany started to expand and, 

1121
00:57:46,400 --> 00:57:50,760
and, and occupy the surrounding 
nations all in the 1930s. 

1122
00:57:50,760 --> 00:57:53,720
And it wasn't until, you know, 
the early 40s where the US got 

1123
00:57:53,720 --> 00:57:55,520
involved. 
But World War 2 started before 

1124
00:57:55,520 --> 00:57:57,360
that. 
I think when we look back, 

1125
00:57:57,360 --> 00:57:59,840
historically speaking, we're 
going to look at this time be 

1126
00:57:59,840 --> 00:58:02,240
like, yeah, it had already 
started at this point. 

1127
00:58:02,960 --> 00:58:06,520
And so that the Russian Ukraine 
deal, you know, Israel fighting 

1128
00:58:06,520 --> 00:58:09,600
and now the US getting involved 
against Iran and all this kind 

1129
00:58:09,600 --> 00:58:13,400
of stuff, I think these are all 
sort of the precursor smaller 

1130
00:58:13,400 --> 00:58:16,760
battles that are leading to a 
more major World War. 

1131
00:58:17,320 --> 00:58:19,920
I'm not looking forward to that.
I don't want that to happen. 

1132
00:58:20,400 --> 00:58:22,400
But I do think that's where we 
are. 

1133
00:58:22,400 --> 00:58:28,160
And I also note that based on 
these past wars, at least from 

1134
00:58:28,200 --> 00:58:32,360
an American perspective, 
Americans don't get into the war

1135
00:58:32,360 --> 00:58:35,920
or don't support it until 
something happens like a Pearl 

1136
00:58:35,920 --> 00:58:40,200
Harbor type event or like a 9/11
type event that happened back, 

1137
00:58:40,200 --> 00:58:44,040
you know, in 2001. 
Or like even there's a sinking 

1138
00:58:44,040 --> 00:58:46,960
of a ship back in world during 
World War One that got the 

1139
00:58:46,960 --> 00:58:49,760
United States involved that 
because Americans were involved 

1140
00:58:49,760 --> 00:58:52,840
and lost their lives. 
I'm waiting for, and I don't 

1141
00:58:52,840 --> 00:58:57,800
mean to sound like a cynic or 
you know, whatever a bearish 

1142
00:58:57,800 --> 00:59:01,560
person or Cassandra, those kind 
of names. 

1143
00:59:02,520 --> 00:59:05,640
I'm concerned that we are going 
to have an event like that 

1144
00:59:05,640 --> 00:59:10,600
that's going to happen that will
finally unite Americans and and 

1145
00:59:10,600 --> 00:59:14,040
convince us, at least as a 
nation that we actually are at 

1146
00:59:14,040 --> 00:59:15,800
war. 
And I think that that is coming 

1147
00:59:16,440 --> 00:59:20,160
before this decades out and 
probably within the next couple 

1148
00:59:20,160 --> 00:59:22,560
of years, two or three years if 
I had to guess. 

1149
00:59:24,200 --> 00:59:24,920
All right. 
Yeah. 

1150
00:59:24,920 --> 00:59:29,360
Well, that's, that's not really 
a positive note to end it on, 

1151
00:59:29,360 --> 00:59:33,680
but I appreciate you sharing. 
And yeah, in general, I, I think

1152
00:59:33,680 --> 00:59:37,640
it was a great conversation, 
some good exploration. 

1153
00:59:37,640 --> 00:59:40,680
So I want to thank you for your 
insights and your time. 

1154
00:59:40,680 --> 00:59:43,640
And yeah, let's stay in touch 
and we're going to see how it 

1155
00:59:43,640 --> 00:59:44,360
goes. 
Great. 

1156
00:59:44,360 --> 00:59:45,600
Thanks for having me on your 
show, Bram. 

1157
00:59:46,040 --> 00:59:48,480
Cheers man, Thank you. 
I hope you enjoyed this episode.

1158
00:59:48,560 --> 00:59:51,800
If you did, you can click here 
to find more just like it and 

1159
00:59:51,800 --> 00:59:54,720
click here to find all Bitcoin 
for millennials podcast 

1160
00:59:54,720 --> 00:59:57,040
episodes. 
Also, if you want to help me 

1161
00:59:57,040 --> 01:00:00,840
shine a light on the message of 
Bitcoin, please like this video 

1162
01:00:00,880 --> 01:00:04,400
and subscribe to stay connected.
I hope to see you for the next 

1163
01:00:04,400 --> 01:00:05,400
episode. 
Bye.