1 00:00:00,040 --> 00:00:04,000 For 10 years Bitcoin lived by a predictable metronome having 2 00:00:04,000 --> 00:00:07,800 pump, dump and repeat. But what if that clock broke 3 00:00:07,800 --> 00:00:11,640 along the way? Smithson with AKA Smitty is back 4 00:00:11,680 --> 00:00:14,920 on Bitcoin for millennials. Our previous episode together 5 00:00:14,920 --> 00:00:18,120 hit 100,000 views. Because Smitty doesn't do hype, 6 00:00:18,280 --> 00:00:21,080 he does data. His latest research on the 7 00:00:21,080 --> 00:00:25,480 ISMPMI suggests the four year cycle many have relied on seems 8 00:00:25,480 --> 00:00:28,480 to have been replaced by something much bigger. 9 00:00:28,480 --> 00:00:31,360 He reveals why the business cycle has hijacked Bitcoin and 10 00:00:31,360 --> 00:00:34,160 what the cost of production tells us about the floor price 11 00:00:34,320 --> 00:00:38,200 for 2026 and beyond. We also dive into the gold 12 00:00:38,200 --> 00:00:41,840 versus Bitcoin rotation and why the recent red signal in 13 00:00:41,840 --> 00:00:45,600 Smitty's charts suggests a massive divergent is right 14 00:00:45,600 --> 00:00:48,320 around the corner. If you were enjoying my content, 15 00:00:48,320 --> 00:00:51,000 it would mean a lot to me if you could subscribe to the channel 16 00:00:51,200 --> 00:00:53,560 and like my video to support my journey. 17 00:00:53,880 --> 00:00:56,240 Thanks a lot. Now let's dive in to this 18 00:00:56,240 --> 00:01:01,400 episode. All right, Smithson Smitty, 19 00:01:01,960 --> 00:01:03,800 welcome back to Bitcoin for Millennials. 20 00:01:04,519 --> 00:01:06,800 I'm back with Bran and it could be happier. 21 00:01:06,800 --> 00:01:09,720 How are you my friend? Very good man Yeah, I'm very 22 00:01:09,720 --> 00:01:14,120 happy you're back. Our first episode is one of my 23 00:01:14,200 --> 00:01:17,680 most watched episodes. I think it's actually #2 / 100 K 24 00:01:17,680 --> 00:01:20,280 views. We went through your Bitcoin 25 00:01:20,280 --> 00:01:23,120 retirement guide, which was an incredible video. 26 00:01:23,120 --> 00:01:26,120 I will also link to it at the end so people can check it out 27 00:01:26,120 --> 00:01:29,880 and in the description because I just think it's really great to 28 00:01:30,440 --> 00:01:32,440 you know, how, how you put the strategy together. 29 00:01:32,840 --> 00:01:35,560 And yeah, I'm happy you're back. I just told you like there's 30 00:01:35,560 --> 00:01:39,760 like 3 people that I call, you know, sometimes I repost on X 31 00:01:39,760 --> 00:01:42,640 and I say, you know, like this is my quant and that's you and 32 00:01:42,640 --> 00:01:48,000 plan C and James Van Stratton. So I'm you're here and yeah, I 33 00:01:48,000 --> 00:01:52,920 thought this this episode could be kind of a, an update to and 34 00:01:54,120 --> 00:01:56,640 maybe you can give a little background, you know, as to what 35 00:01:56,640 --> 00:01:58,000 you're doing with regard to Bitcoin. 36 00:01:58,000 --> 00:02:02,760 But you know, your new insights based on the data and yeah, 37 00:02:02,760 --> 00:02:04,840 let's just go through whatever you found. 38 00:02:04,840 --> 00:02:07,280 I I have no idea. So I'm ready to to be surprised. 39 00:02:08,080 --> 00:02:08,759 I love it. Yeah. 40 00:02:08,759 --> 00:02:10,880 It's, it's so great to reconnect with you again, Brian. 41 00:02:10,880 --> 00:02:13,680 I by the way, it's really high praise to hear that from you, 42 00:02:13,680 --> 00:02:17,560 the the quant nod from you, from the great Brandon Canstein. 43 00:02:17,920 --> 00:02:21,000 I, I have the, the respect is mutual. 44 00:02:21,000 --> 00:02:25,400 So I think few people are intellectually producing as much 45 00:02:25,400 --> 00:02:27,320 as you are out there in the Bitcoin content space. 46 00:02:27,320 --> 00:02:29,000 So thanks a lot for those kind words. 47 00:02:31,120 --> 00:02:31,960 Yeah. And I'm happy. 48 00:02:31,960 --> 00:02:33,920 You know what? I think last time we connected, 49 00:02:33,920 --> 00:02:37,040 we there, the focus was on the retirement stuff. 50 00:02:37,040 --> 00:02:40,680 And there's clearly some other areas of focus that I that I've 51 00:02:40,680 --> 00:02:43,480 been spending time on and I'm happy to walk through the the 52 00:02:43,480 --> 00:02:45,240 most recent stuff. So awesome. 53 00:02:45,560 --> 00:02:46,720 Yeah, can go ahead and kick it off. 54 00:02:46,720 --> 00:02:50,760 And I'm presenting here. I think you connected with our 55 00:02:50,760 --> 00:02:54,360 good mutual friend Plan C He was a collaborator on this, this 56 00:02:54,360 --> 00:02:55,600 work. It was our first. 57 00:02:55,600 --> 00:02:59,560 It was my first and I think Plan CS first X article ever. 58 00:02:59,880 --> 00:03:02,280 And you're no stranger to that, but we called it how the 59 00:03:02,280 --> 00:03:06,200 business cycle quickly became the Bitcoin cycle, which is 60 00:03:06,200 --> 00:03:08,600 right off the bat sounds very contrarian. 61 00:03:09,520 --> 00:03:11,960 Because right now I think you can see in the space you've got 62 00:03:12,360 --> 00:03:14,560 kind of generally 2 schools of thought, right? 63 00:03:14,560 --> 00:03:17,480 Like maybe 2 1/2 schools of thought. 64 00:03:17,480 --> 00:03:22,000 You've got one group who they're four year cycle theorists, 65 00:03:22,000 --> 00:03:23,440 right? And they think that that is 66 00:03:23,440 --> 00:03:26,680 there's something underlying, you know, related to the 67 00:03:26,680 --> 00:03:29,520 halvings, perhaps maybe some people think it's not related to 68 00:03:29,520 --> 00:03:32,000 the Haps. But regardless, there's a four 69 00:03:32,000 --> 00:03:36,120 year cycle periodicity here that is just inherent to the system. 70 00:03:36,360 --> 00:03:39,360 And it comes around around the same seasonality every four, 71 00:03:39,720 --> 00:03:43,400 roughly every four years. And there's a few, few sub 72 00:03:44,000 --> 00:03:47,520 subgroups within that camp. And then the other side are kind 73 00:03:47,520 --> 00:03:49,080 of what I'm sort of going to build out here. 74 00:03:49,080 --> 00:03:50,920 And I think we it gained some traction. 75 00:03:50,920 --> 00:03:54,640 I mean this, this article did pretty well I think and what my 76 00:03:54,640 --> 00:03:59,840 thesis is here and I'm all totally open to data supporting 77 00:03:59,840 --> 00:04:04,280 the opposite end of this. But the idea is that early on in 78 00:04:04,280 --> 00:04:08,400 Bitcoins life, right since Genesis, the halvings were a 79 00:04:08,400 --> 00:04:10,840 substantial drop in the inflation rate huge. 80 00:04:10,840 --> 00:04:14,440 So it actually had an impact on the supply and demand dynamics, 81 00:04:14,680 --> 00:04:17,680 which could we know if you go back to the miners and their 82 00:04:17,680 --> 00:04:23,480 profitability can have a more of a direct impact on price pushing 83 00:04:23,480 --> 00:04:26,240 up those bubbles. And those bubbles are kind of 84 00:04:26,240 --> 00:04:28,840 how people generally measure the four year cycle, so either from 85 00:04:28,840 --> 00:04:32,240 the tops or the bottoms. But basically the nuts and bolts 86 00:04:32,240 --> 00:04:36,040 of this are that there, there is a four year cycle, but it's 87 00:04:36,040 --> 00:04:39,160 actually more, it seems to be more tied to the business cycle, 88 00:04:39,160 --> 00:04:42,200 which there's a variety of different definitions there. 89 00:04:42,560 --> 00:04:49,720 But I use the ISMPMI as a proxy for that as a single, single 90 00:04:49,720 --> 00:04:51,440 indicator. Of course you could make a whole 91 00:04:51,960 --> 00:04:54,800 comprehensive holistic macro indicator out of that. 92 00:04:54,800 --> 00:04:57,080 There's different ways to do it. But in this article we're 93 00:04:57,080 --> 00:05:00,360 saying, OK, in the early days the hat basically the halving 94 00:05:00,360 --> 00:05:02,600 probably had an impact on driving this four year cycle. 95 00:05:02,600 --> 00:05:08,000 But by the 2nd halving the correlation there dropped 96 00:05:08,120 --> 00:05:10,600 substantially and the correlation increased 97 00:05:10,600 --> 00:05:16,040 substantially with the PMI. And so basically brand this is 98 00:05:16,040 --> 00:05:19,000 the. This is probably the most basic 99 00:05:19,040 --> 00:05:20,760 and eye popping way to visualize that. 100 00:05:21,520 --> 00:05:23,160 Could you maybe? And I'm actually not using. 101 00:05:23,560 --> 00:05:27,920 Yeah, go ahead. On the ISM and PMI like a what? 102 00:05:27,920 --> 00:05:30,880 What is it and and what makes it up basically? 103 00:05:32,120 --> 00:05:34,160 Yeah. So it's the Institute for Supply 104 00:05:34,160 --> 00:05:36,440 Managers, right, is what the ISM stands for. 105 00:05:36,440 --> 00:05:41,640 And so this is the manufacturing index that, you know, if you're 106 00:05:41,640 --> 00:05:44,640 looking at the raw PMI index, which I'm sure you've taken a 107 00:05:44,640 --> 00:05:48,160 look at that, but you see a time series data. 108 00:05:48,720 --> 00:05:54,760 So just imagine this green line here is absolute PMI values and 109 00:05:54,760 --> 00:05:57,280 this zero line here is a value of 50. 110 00:05:57,280 --> 00:06:01,040 So it's like a percentage scale. Essentially, if you're below A50 111 00:06:01,040 --> 00:06:04,920 line, it means that supply chain managers and things like that 112 00:06:05,360 --> 00:06:08,240 are being surveyed and answering to that survey. 113 00:06:08,240 --> 00:06:11,400 Overall, on average, they're doing less business if it's 114 00:06:11,400 --> 00:06:14,800 below 50, right? So they're, they're actually the 115 00:06:14,800 --> 00:06:20,080 rate of of, of doing business is decreasing in terms of new, new 116 00:06:20,080 --> 00:06:24,720 order intakes, prices, deliveries, making it on time, 117 00:06:24,720 --> 00:06:28,120 things like this versus if it's above 50, it means they're on a 118 00:06:28,400 --> 00:06:31,160 growth path, means that their business is actually growing 119 00:06:31,160 --> 00:06:33,000 from a, from a manufacturing standpoint. 120 00:06:33,640 --> 00:06:36,800 And so it has. Spending of money from 121 00:06:36,800 --> 00:06:39,320 businesses, basically. Exactly, exactly. 122 00:06:39,800 --> 00:06:44,320 So businesses that make things being able to, to grow the grow 123 00:06:44,320 --> 00:06:47,680 their, that business, right? And so the, I think the idea is 124 00:06:47,720 --> 00:06:50,560 from a theory standpoint, why is this starting to become more 125 00:06:50,560 --> 00:06:51,920 correlated? I mean, you could just see by 126 00:06:51,920 --> 00:06:53,880 the eye test, right? Especially if you look at the 127 00:06:53,880 --> 00:06:59,040 2nd and sorry, just third and 4th bubbles here, 2017 and 2017 128 00:06:59,040 --> 00:07:02,240 into 2021. I mean, it's pretty striking, 129 00:07:02,240 --> 00:07:04,640 right? And it's starting to build a 130 00:07:04,640 --> 00:07:06,720 good amount in 2014. It's not perfect. 131 00:07:07,080 --> 00:07:10,040 The the Bitcoin bubbles kind of live inside the PMI bubbles, 132 00:07:10,040 --> 00:07:13,560 which is interesting. So, but yeah, I guess the theory 133 00:07:13,560 --> 00:07:17,480 there, Bram, to wrap that the theory is that in times of sort 134 00:07:17,480 --> 00:07:21,520 of loose, looser monetary conditions and macro conditions, 135 00:07:21,520 --> 00:07:23,880 like there's more of a risk on environment in general. 136 00:07:24,320 --> 00:07:30,240 And so higher investment is warranted by investors, by VCs, 137 00:07:30,240 --> 00:07:34,800 by, you know, taking out loans for all sorts of different new, 138 00:07:34,800 --> 00:07:37,280 new business. And Bitcoin, Bitcoin can kind of 139 00:07:37,280 --> 00:07:40,040 be looked at at both of a risk on asset as well as a risk off 140 00:07:40,040 --> 00:07:42,760 asset. So that's sort of the risk on 141 00:07:42,960 --> 00:07:45,960 behavior showing still with the in terms of these bubbles. 142 00:07:46,560 --> 00:07:48,920 Yeah. Yeah, what I find interesting I, 143 00:07:48,920 --> 00:07:52,400 I wonder I, I talked with Plan C about I, I think it was the same 144 00:07:52,400 --> 00:07:58,280 slide actually about how does this also correlate to kind of 145 00:07:58,280 --> 00:08:01,880 like the liquidity cycles? Because there's also this theory 146 00:08:02,080 --> 00:08:05,040 and, and I agree, right, Like in the beginning when Bitcoin was 147 00:08:05,040 --> 00:08:11,720 smaller, the halvings probably had a way bigger impact on the 148 00:08:11,720 --> 00:08:15,760 available supply versus, you know, the, the people wanting to 149 00:08:15,760 --> 00:08:20,840 sell. And as Bitcoin grew to a, a, a 150 00:08:21,240 --> 00:08:25,360 bigger asset, it kind of became more correlated to kind of like 151 00:08:25,360 --> 00:08:28,080 these waves of liquidity. And I think there's, I just 152 00:08:28,080 --> 00:08:32,559 tried to Google it, but there's also this, this idea that 153 00:08:33,960 --> 00:08:38,320 Satoshi actually launched Bitcoin, whether it was on 154 00:08:38,320 --> 00:08:40,039 purpose or not, right? That's speculation. 155 00:08:40,039 --> 00:08:46,040 But really almost at a, at the bottom of these larger liquidity 156 00:08:46,040 --> 00:08:49,200 cycles kind of move in like 5 or 6 years. 157 00:08:49,640 --> 00:08:52,880 And I've always been interested in that, but I've never really 158 00:08:52,880 --> 00:08:56,600 seen anyone really like zoom in on that. 159 00:08:56,600 --> 00:09:01,160 But but here you can kind of make the relationship right if 160 00:09:01,600 --> 00:09:07,160 liquidity is higher, if rates are cheaper, more people are 161 00:09:07,160 --> 00:09:13,120 going to borrow and, you know, pay and try to grow their 162 00:09:13,120 --> 00:09:17,840 company basically, right. And although it's a risk on 163 00:09:18,440 --> 00:09:21,520 time, that's the second thing I find super interesting because I 164 00:09:21,520 --> 00:09:26,080 think in, in, in essence, just from the characteristics of 165 00:09:26,080 --> 00:09:31,920 Bitcoin and well, I, I think Bitcoin is the ultimate risk off 166 00:09:31,920 --> 00:09:33,960 assets, right? It's literally a parallel money 167 00:09:33,960 --> 00:09:37,000 system that is totally outside. Of the actual, it's both. 168 00:09:37,120 --> 00:09:38,880 It's actually both. I I totally agree. 169 00:09:38,960 --> 00:09:39,800 Yeah. Yeah. 170 00:09:39,800 --> 00:09:44,120 And well, yeah, so, so I think Plan C said the same like it's 171 00:09:44,120 --> 00:09:46,080 both. But I think you know, it's if 172 00:09:46,080 --> 00:09:48,080 you look at the characteristics or like the fundamentals of 173 00:09:48,080 --> 00:09:51,040 Bitcoin, I would say it is definitely a risk off asset. 174 00:09:51,400 --> 00:09:56,160 But the perception of the majority of people, IE not us, 175 00:09:56,560 --> 00:09:59,120 right? It's, that's, it's a risk on 176 00:09:59,120 --> 00:10:01,720 thing, right? It's an asset, it trades with 177 00:10:01,720 --> 00:10:03,960 the NASDAQ and etcetera, etcetera. 178 00:10:04,240 --> 00:10:07,480 And so I think it's quite logical. 179 00:10:07,600 --> 00:10:09,400 It's very cool to see it in the data, right? 180 00:10:09,400 --> 00:10:13,360 But it's quite logical to still see, you know, with an increase 181 00:10:13,360 --> 00:10:16,720 of liquidity, increase of risk, increase of spending from 182 00:10:16,720 --> 00:10:22,280 companies you know in, in buying of Bitcoin is is also present. 183 00:10:22,720 --> 00:10:25,800 My main argument just to be to be brief when I say I think it's 184 00:10:25,800 --> 00:10:28,320 both the risk on and risk off. I don't think you can see my 185 00:10:28,320 --> 00:10:31,240 cursor in here, but that's OK. If you look at, so if you look 186 00:10:31,240 --> 00:10:34,680 at the price bubbles, well, it's actually Z score here for 187 00:10:34,680 --> 00:10:37,360 Bitcoin. If you draw a straight line from 188 00:10:37,360 --> 00:10:39,880 the left axis all the way across, just cut through 189 00:10:39,880 --> 00:10:43,720 horizontally, that's not actually moving sideways here. 190 00:10:43,720 --> 00:10:47,680 It's it's moving according to that 5.9 exponent power loft, 191 00:10:47,680 --> 00:10:50,440 right? To me, that's the risk off. 192 00:10:52,600 --> 00:10:55,200 If something happened to you tomorrow, could your family 193 00:10:55,200 --> 00:10:58,240 access your Bitcoin? Not probably not. 194 00:10:58,240 --> 00:11:00,520 They'd figure it out, but with certainty. 195 00:11:00,920 --> 00:11:03,640 I thought about this a lot. Whatever custody solution you 196 00:11:03,640 --> 00:11:07,000 are using, inheritance is the piece most people haven't solved 197 00:11:07,000 --> 00:11:09,200 yet. Billions in Bitcoin have already 198 00:11:09,200 --> 00:11:11,800 been lost because someone died without a plan. 199 00:11:12,200 --> 00:11:14,240 With on ramp. Inheritance planning is built 200 00:11:14,240 --> 00:11:16,400 directly into your custody set up. 201 00:11:16,720 --> 00:11:20,280 Your Bitcoin stays segregated and in your control, secured 202 00:11:20,280 --> 00:11:23,400 across independent institutions in multiple jurisdictions, 203 00:11:23,600 --> 00:11:26,320 insured through Lloyds of London, and accessible to the 204 00:11:26,320 --> 00:11:28,400 people you choose when they need it. 205 00:11:28,640 --> 00:11:32,280 And it doesn't matter where in the world you or they are. 206 00:11:32,600 --> 00:11:35,320 You can book a free consultation to learn more at 207 00:11:35,320 --> 00:11:40,360 onlinebitcoin.com/brom. That's onlinebitcoin.com/brom. 208 00:11:43,320 --> 00:11:45,880 Most people stop too early with Bitcoin. 209 00:11:46,040 --> 00:11:49,200 They buy it, maybe move it to a wallet, and think they are done. 210 00:11:49,480 --> 00:11:51,760 But they're not. The real questions are how 211 00:11:51,760 --> 00:11:54,360 you're securing it, how private your setup is, and whether 212 00:11:54,360 --> 00:11:57,000 you're verifying your own transactions or trusting someone 213 00:11:57,000 --> 00:11:59,080 else. And what happens to your Bitcoin 214 00:11:59,080 --> 00:12:02,320 when something happens to you. This is the layer that most 215 00:12:02,320 --> 00:12:04,720 people ignore, and it's the most important one. 216 00:12:05,000 --> 00:12:08,040 That's why I've been working with the Bitcoin way to help you 217 00:12:08,120 --> 00:12:10,880 set up self custody properly, including privacy, 218 00:12:10,880 --> 00:12:14,360 cybersecurity, inheritance, and even running your own note. 219 00:12:14,600 --> 00:12:17,440 And they do it without ever touching your Bitcoin. 220 00:12:17,640 --> 00:12:20,120 They're not a custodian, they're your support team. 221 00:12:20,480 --> 00:12:22,440 If you're serious about this like I am, go to 222 00:12:22,440 --> 00:12:26,800 thebitcoinway.com/brom. That's Bram to book a free call 223 00:12:26,960 --> 00:12:29,720 that walk you through your setup, personalize everything to 224 00:12:29,720 --> 00:12:33,040 you, and help you get a much stronger position very quickly, 225 00:12:33,200 --> 00:12:35,200 whether you're a beginner or more advanced. 226 00:12:35,400 --> 00:12:39,960 That's the bitcoinway.com/brom. The way that we perceive time, 227 00:12:40,480 --> 00:12:43,280 you know, and we can't think longer than usually a few months 228 00:12:43,280 --> 00:12:44,720 when we're looking at things like this. 229 00:12:45,520 --> 00:12:49,880 We don't understand that it is risk off because we're paying 230 00:12:49,880 --> 00:12:52,080 attention to the price day-to-day or month to month or 231 00:12:52,080 --> 00:12:54,720 things like that. And so the risk on type of 232 00:12:54,720 --> 00:12:57,800 behavior in, in my view is when you start to see these actual 233 00:12:57,800 --> 00:12:59,360 bubbles. And that's when you get more of 234 00:12:59,360 --> 00:13:02,360 the, the, you know, the FOMO sort of the group, the group 235 00:13:02,360 --> 00:13:05,560 think the piling and, and, and but that's, that's what I mean 236 00:13:05,560 --> 00:13:08,840 when I say it's a, it's at its core, fundamentally it's risk 237 00:13:08,840 --> 00:13:11,560 off, like you said, but I think it has these these bubbles are 238 00:13:11,560 --> 00:13:15,560 sort of risk on times. It's funny, right, like the the 239 00:13:15,560 --> 00:13:19,040 underlying thesis and the fundamentals is, is a long term 240 00:13:19,040 --> 00:13:27,600 outlook, which is risk off. But the short term outlook for 241 00:13:28,360 --> 00:13:31,280 more, more people than Hodler's is risk on, right. 242 00:13:31,280 --> 00:13:33,440 So it's just an it's just an investment basically. 243 00:13:33,440 --> 00:13:38,280 And that's also why or risk on type people, the price of 244 00:13:38,280 --> 00:13:42,160 Bitcoin is most important. They either think it's too high, 245 00:13:42,280 --> 00:13:46,200 so they don't buy it or they think it's it's it's low or it's 246 00:13:46,200 --> 00:13:49,400 going to go lower, right? And and then they also don't 247 00:13:49,400 --> 00:13:52,600 don't buy it basically. So anyone who trades or see sees 248 00:13:52,600 --> 00:13:56,160 it as an investment, fundamentally, I would say it 249 00:13:56,160 --> 00:13:59,880 sees there's a risk on assets, whereas you know, when you 250 00:13:59,880 --> 00:14:02,800 understand the fundamentals and why it exists and when you look 251 00:14:02,800 --> 00:14:05,640 at it over a long enough time frame, That's why this next 252 00:14:05,640 --> 00:14:09,680 slide I think is so interesting. It is risk off, but you need to 253 00:14:09,680 --> 00:14:13,800 be able to zoom out or at least understand the long term 254 00:14:13,840 --> 00:14:16,480 underlying thesis. So yeah, it's super cool to see. 255 00:14:17,400 --> 00:14:21,480 Very well said and I'm a super visual person, so I, you know, I 256 00:14:21,480 --> 00:14:25,560 feel like half of what I do is actual, you know, under the 257 00:14:25,560 --> 00:14:29,080 under the hood sort of coding and, and the mathematics and the 258 00:14:29,080 --> 00:14:31,920 theory and things. But I really like, I like the 259 00:14:31,920 --> 00:14:34,880 messages that we, that we pull out of the data and the 260 00:14:34,880 --> 00:14:39,240 frameworks that we're working the data with and shows what's 261 00:14:39,240 --> 00:14:42,880 actually going on. So I had this idea, Bram, where 262 00:14:42,880 --> 00:14:45,800 I you, you've seen this log log chart, right, with, with the, 263 00:14:45,800 --> 00:14:48,440 the Bitcoin price before. And you see the, we call it the 264 00:14:48,440 --> 00:14:51,040 line that you can Unsee, redraw a line straight through it. 265 00:14:51,240 --> 00:14:53,320 And whatever you think of the power law or whatever, right, 266 00:14:53,600 --> 00:14:56,480 the straight line exists. And so I just wanted to take 267 00:14:56,480 --> 00:15:00,200 that PMI data that we were talking about before and 268 00:15:00,200 --> 00:15:04,520 normalize that to that straight line so that you could see, you 269 00:15:04,520 --> 00:15:08,360 know, you see the price and what it's doing into 20272028 going 270 00:15:08,520 --> 00:15:14,040 that going for projecting ahead. And you see in the last 510 plus 271 00:15:14,040 --> 00:15:18,080 years what the bubbles of PMI have been doing and these price 272 00:15:18,360 --> 00:15:21,640 bubbles living inside of those. And so, yeah, it's just, I think 273 00:15:21,640 --> 00:15:25,320 it's a really interesting perspective to me because it's 274 00:15:25,320 --> 00:15:28,320 it's a little less abstract than looking at like something like 275 00:15:28,320 --> 00:15:30,440 the last slide where you're looking at these two squiggly 276 00:15:30,440 --> 00:15:34,880 lines going up and down here. It's like in log time, this is 277 00:15:34,880 --> 00:15:40,400 what the price is doing and along that same normalized axis 278 00:15:40,720 --> 00:15:43,680 as the X axis, that's exactly what PMI is doing. 279 00:15:43,680 --> 00:15:46,640 So I think it's just a more kind of compelling and what's to me 280 00:15:46,640 --> 00:15:48,400 what it stands out besides the bubbles. 281 00:15:48,880 --> 00:15:53,320 Look at the last three years since really since the bottom of 282 00:15:53,440 --> 00:15:57,840 the the last cycle bottom. So end of 2022 when I think the 283 00:15:57,840 --> 00:15:59,920 price dropped down to like what was it 16,000? 284 00:16:00,840 --> 00:16:03,600 And we've just been, I've been calling it a crab crawl since 285 00:16:03,600 --> 00:16:06,760 then. And there's this sort of another 286 00:16:06,760 --> 00:16:09,800 split camp the, the schools of thought where people are like, 287 00:16:09,880 --> 00:16:11,920 look, dude, we had a, you know, we had a bull run. 288 00:16:11,920 --> 00:16:15,600 We went from 16,000 to was 125,000. 289 00:16:16,240 --> 00:16:20,480 But when you look at it relative to the long term or even, and 290 00:16:20,480 --> 00:16:24,960 then relative to the, the macro cycle, the business cycle, it's, 291 00:16:25,120 --> 00:16:28,200 I think it's been suppressed. So I, me and Clancy have kind of 292 00:16:28,200 --> 00:16:32,120 been using the term pseudo bull run or, or like a faux, I don't 293 00:16:32,120 --> 00:16:34,160 know, I can't remember what he says faux bull run or something. 294 00:16:34,800 --> 00:16:39,360 So to me, it's like I, I, the four year cyclists as of the 295 00:16:39,360 --> 00:16:41,640 last few months have kind of looked pretty good because 296 00:16:41,640 --> 00:16:44,520 they're like 4 year cycle tops going to hit, you know, just 297 00:16:44,520 --> 00:16:49,000 watch and it kind of like it's a little painful, but if you zoom 298 00:16:49,000 --> 00:16:53,480 in to look, we've had three years of contraction and just 299 00:16:53,480 --> 00:16:56,480 since January, it's a relatively short sliver of time. 300 00:16:56,480 --> 00:17:02,600 We peaked above that line. So we hit 52.652 point 452.7 and 301 00:17:02,600 --> 00:17:04,760 you look at the last couple cycles, there's a lag, There's a 302 00:17:04,760 --> 00:17:08,520 significant lag here. And so I'm still like really 303 00:17:08,520 --> 00:17:11,520 bullish right now actually. So what? 304 00:17:11,560 --> 00:17:15,079 What would invalidate? But it's funny, right? 305 00:17:15,079 --> 00:17:18,000 By the way, another one like why is there a lag? 306 00:17:18,480 --> 00:17:24,040 You know, I wonder if you can correlate also to SMP, NASDAQ, 307 00:17:24,040 --> 00:17:28,800 whatever other stuff people invest in and you could follow, 308 00:17:28,800 --> 00:17:35,280 right, Because, you know, my, my assumption for lack would be, 309 00:17:35,280 --> 00:17:39,560 you know, if you've had a significant time where, you 310 00:17:39,560 --> 00:17:42,720 know, we've been below, like you can see here on the on the 311 00:17:42,720 --> 00:17:47,080 chart, you know, when, when you get cheap money, cheaper ish 312 00:17:47,080 --> 00:17:52,640 money or the appetite for, for borrowing money goes up again. 313 00:17:52,640 --> 00:17:55,840 Borrowing and spending money, you know, is investments. 314 00:17:55,840 --> 00:17:58,480 The first thing you're spending it on, or are you actually 315 00:17:58,480 --> 00:18:03,720 spending it on, you know, what, whatever you need to fix that, 316 00:18:04,840 --> 00:18:09,240 you know, happened in this red part basically, right? 317 00:18:09,240 --> 00:18:11,800 So I, what I think is so interesting, like there's like 318 00:18:11,800 --> 00:18:16,840 human behavior and there's just the data and, and I think trying 319 00:18:16,840 --> 00:18:20,520 to find the connection between it is, is very interesting, but 320 00:18:20,520 --> 00:18:23,000 it's really, it's really hard. So I, I just wanted to ask you 321 00:18:23,000 --> 00:18:24,760 like, what would invalidate this? 322 00:18:24,760 --> 00:18:30,320 Because I'm following, I'm following the logic and I mean, 323 00:18:30,400 --> 00:18:33,200 you know, you have a lag now that you're, that you're 324 00:18:33,200 --> 00:18:36,480 showing. So I would, I would, you know, 325 00:18:36,480 --> 00:18:40,240 want to ask like when would you expect it to catch up or like 326 00:18:40,240 --> 00:18:43,640 what would it invalidate it? Because overall, I think it's 327 00:18:43,640 --> 00:18:45,240 pretty compelling what you're sharing. 328 00:18:46,200 --> 00:18:48,200 Yeah. And I just want to say that's a 329 00:18:48,200 --> 00:18:50,400 really good question. I don't think, you know, I'm not 330 00:18:50,400 --> 00:18:53,760 willing to hang my hat on this indefinitely and say like this 331 00:18:53,760 --> 00:18:56,720 is the only, I think a lot of people misconstrue because I've 332 00:18:56,720 --> 00:18:59,880 been posting so much on this because I just think the dating, 333 00:18:59,880 --> 00:19:03,240 the data is really striking. They go, you know what, what's 334 00:19:03,240 --> 00:19:05,320 the there's what's the causative relationship? 335 00:19:05,320 --> 00:19:08,080 You're saying PMI drives, you know, Bitcoin price. 336 00:19:08,080 --> 00:19:09,680 That's nonsense. And I'm like, yeah, you know, 337 00:19:09,680 --> 00:19:10,800 that's not really what I'm saying. 338 00:19:10,800 --> 00:19:15,200 I think what I'm saying is that these two are correlated, that 339 00:19:15,200 --> 00:19:17,080 pretty much I'm saying that there's a correlation here. 340 00:19:17,080 --> 00:19:20,560 And so the question that you're asking there of like, why 341 00:19:20,880 --> 00:19:23,400 mechanistically is there a correlation there? 342 00:19:23,400 --> 00:19:25,440 And then why would there be a lag in there? 343 00:19:25,440 --> 00:19:26,880 I think those are the right questions. 344 00:19:27,640 --> 00:19:29,840 I mean, I think there's a, first of all, what would invalidate a 345 00:19:29,840 --> 00:19:32,640 lot of it? I think if we give it 6, I think 346 00:19:32,640 --> 00:19:36,560 if we go to the end of the year and we still, I think if we 347 00:19:36,560 --> 00:19:41,040 plummet, if the price keeps dropping down to say October and 348 00:19:41,040 --> 00:19:43,920 the PMI stays where it's at or it keeps driving higher. 349 00:19:44,280 --> 00:19:49,200 Like if we do APMI bubble like we did in 2021-2022, I think, 350 00:19:50,800 --> 00:19:53,240 and then the price keeps trickling down to I, I would 351 00:19:53,240 --> 00:19:55,920 say, OK, there's something wrong with the, the understanding 352 00:19:55,920 --> 00:19:59,320 here. But then there's a couple things 353 00:19:59,320 --> 00:20:03,760 in there, right? There are, I think a dozen or so 354 00:20:03,760 --> 00:20:07,560 different questions in the PMI that ultimately get you an 355 00:20:07,560 --> 00:20:11,040 aggregate PMI value that can be between 0 and 100. 356 00:20:11,800 --> 00:20:14,960 So there's some nuance right now what's driving a lot of the PMI 357 00:20:14,960 --> 00:20:17,720 going up is the inflation, the prices and things like that. 358 00:20:17,880 --> 00:20:22,400 So the business is doing well for certain reasons, but in 359 00:20:22,400 --> 00:20:26,240 other areas like new orders. Are still growing, but that the 360 00:20:26,240 --> 00:20:28,360 growth of the new orders is slowing things like that. 361 00:20:28,360 --> 00:20:31,360 So there's some nuances to what causes this to go up and down. 362 00:20:32,040 --> 00:20:35,680 And then the third thing is that I think for the lag, I think 363 00:20:35,680 --> 00:20:38,280 it's a good question. I think it's, it's open for 364 00:20:38,280 --> 00:20:41,320 debate. I like to think that, you know, 365 00:20:41,320 --> 00:20:46,160 businesses and industry are doing real time transactional 366 00:20:46,880 --> 00:20:49,720 supply chain work to get products out and, and, and 367 00:20:49,720 --> 00:20:52,200 products purchased and then they need to see their accounting 368 00:20:52,200 --> 00:20:54,960 fulfilled. I think that by the time the 369 00:20:54,960 --> 00:20:58,600 public, I think these the price bubbles are largely more of a 370 00:20:58,600 --> 00:21:05,800 socio social sort of phenomenon, right when retail or larger 371 00:21:05,800 --> 00:21:08,280 investors or whatever are starting to pile in and pushing 372 00:21:08,280 --> 00:21:13,080 the price up. That I think that there's a 373 00:21:13,080 --> 00:21:19,080 human sentiment lag there that that comes after you start to 374 00:21:19,080 --> 00:21:21,400 see the businesses giving you that earlier signal. 375 00:21:21,400 --> 00:21:24,880 And I think that's that's probably my top explanation, but 376 00:21:25,200 --> 00:21:26,920 there could be other explanations too, I think for 377 00:21:26,920 --> 00:21:28,520 the lag. Interesting. 378 00:21:28,840 --> 00:21:32,680 Yeah. So yeah, I don't know if you had 379 00:21:32,680 --> 00:21:36,760 any other thoughts on on this. No, I like the next one I saw at 380 00:21:36,760 --> 00:21:37,360 the. Time I'm really. 381 00:21:37,720 --> 00:21:39,280 This is, to me an experiment, though. 382 00:21:39,360 --> 00:21:40,560 Just guys, yeah. And and. 383 00:21:41,720 --> 00:21:44,680 Well, and and maybe maybe one thing to add to that, like 384 00:21:44,680 --> 00:21:48,160 that's why I'd like what what you and plan C do, right? 385 00:21:48,160 --> 00:21:54,640 It's, it's again right there, there's like people that buy 386 00:21:54,640 --> 00:21:56,840 Bitcoin based on a fundamental thesis. 387 00:21:56,840 --> 00:21:59,120 There's people that still trade Bitcoin right? 388 00:21:59,120 --> 00:22:04,320 Like there's so many different opinions and levels of 389 00:22:04,320 --> 00:22:07,880 understandings and, and ways that people judge Bitcoin that 390 00:22:07,880 --> 00:22:13,080 it's also interesting and hard at the same time to try to 391 00:22:13,080 --> 00:22:16,800 figure out why is this basically going up in a, in a straight 392 00:22:16,800 --> 00:22:20,920 power law lock line, right? Like, why is that even 393 00:22:20,920 --> 00:22:23,960 happening? And I think just saying that, 394 00:22:24,000 --> 00:22:26,880 you know, as, as I do is it's not enough. 395 00:22:26,880 --> 00:22:30,040 But like the fundamental thesis is, you know, field money will 396 00:22:30,040 --> 00:22:33,440 be printed forever. You will be debased forever, 397 00:22:33,440 --> 00:22:35,440 right? Your purchasing power is, is, is 398 00:22:35,440 --> 00:22:37,360 gone forever. Like you need to move out of 399 00:22:37,360 --> 00:22:41,280 this system. You know, I, I, I, I don't think 400 00:22:41,280 --> 00:22:46,600 that's the best argument for the majority of people or I, I also 401 00:22:46,600 --> 00:22:51,040 don't think that is what actually drives the, the power 402 00:22:51,040 --> 00:22:54,440 law, right? So 100% is there, right? 403 00:22:54,440 --> 00:22:57,600 And, and I think that's just interesting to try to figure 404 00:22:57,600 --> 00:23:00,080 that out because something is apparently happening, right? 405 00:23:00,760 --> 00:23:02,400 It is. The problem with that argument 406 00:23:02,400 --> 00:23:04,080 is. The problem with that argument 407 00:23:04,080 --> 00:23:05,720 is. That applies to pretty much 408 00:23:05,720 --> 00:23:09,680 everything else out there. Any other like, so why would the 409 00:23:10,240 --> 00:23:13,160 why, what was special about Bitcoin giving it this specific 410 00:23:13,160 --> 00:23:15,880 unique exponent, exponent of growth. 411 00:23:15,880 --> 00:23:18,400 So I think, yeah, I think that argument fails. 412 00:23:18,560 --> 00:23:21,280 I agree. But there's a lot more exploring 413 00:23:21,280 --> 00:23:24,400 to do sort of shifting topics a bit. 414 00:23:24,400 --> 00:23:27,360 This is something I've been just noticing because sentiment has 415 00:23:27,360 --> 00:23:29,680 been so bad, bro. I mean, you're on multiple 416 00:23:29,680 --> 00:23:33,160 platforms. I, I tend to, I like to go back 417 00:23:33,160 --> 00:23:35,960 to Google Trends, which is just an available data set for 418 00:23:35,960 --> 00:23:39,560 anybody can tap into this. And what I, I just kind of 419 00:23:39,720 --> 00:23:41,560 hadn't looked at this in a while, I guess. 420 00:23:41,960 --> 00:23:45,800 And I realized that at least for the US, This Is Us data. 421 00:23:46,520 --> 00:23:51,080 The amount of Google searches relative to past years, it's, 422 00:23:51,080 --> 00:23:53,240 it's a little bit higher than what it was in the middle of 423 00:23:53,240 --> 00:23:56,920 2021, which I'm kind of like, that's really interesting, 424 00:23:58,320 --> 00:24:01,120 especially because I have a really old post brim where I 425 00:24:01,120 --> 00:24:04,760 showed the long term Google search data versus the price 426 00:24:04,760 --> 00:24:08,640 data and the power laws of both match really well. 427 00:24:09,000 --> 00:24:11,880 And so I kind of forgot that this is happening in the back 428 00:24:11,880 --> 00:24:15,560 kind of going back to our conversation about kind of risk 429 00:24:15,560 --> 00:24:18,520 off and like the adoption that's going on when you're not 430 00:24:19,000 --> 00:24:24,880 experiencing a FOMO bubble. I mean, it's sort of like, you 431 00:24:24,880 --> 00:24:27,320 know, we are first of all, the price is right around what it 432 00:24:27,320 --> 00:24:30,920 was at the peak from last cycle. And then what I the way I look 433 00:24:30,920 --> 00:24:34,560 at this is sort of a proxy of OK, people are thinking about 434 00:24:34,560 --> 00:24:37,520 this and, and on the, you know, on their search engines, 435 00:24:37,880 --> 00:24:42,520 wondering about the topic of Bitcoin roughly in the same, you 436 00:24:42,520 --> 00:24:45,320 know, in the same amount as what people were thinking right off 437 00:24:45,320 --> 00:24:48,680 the backside of the the last Bitcoin bull run. 438 00:24:50,040 --> 00:24:50,960 But we don't think of it that way. 439 00:24:50,960 --> 00:24:53,560 And you look at the the rates right before the last big bull 440 00:24:53,560 --> 00:24:56,280 run, it was much lower actually. So yeah. 441 00:24:57,640 --> 00:24:59,080 Yeah. Well, I do think it's 442 00:24:59,080 --> 00:25:02,560 interesting that compared to five years ago, we are at 443 00:25:02,560 --> 00:25:08,240 literally 50% of what it was, let's say 2021, right, like the. 444 00:25:09,080 --> 00:25:11,240 At the peak. Peak peak retail. 445 00:25:11,600 --> 00:25:14,240 But that's a decent amount. It's more than you would think 446 00:25:14,240 --> 00:25:15,800 if you wouldn't have pulled this data. 447 00:25:16,480 --> 00:25:18,600 Well, if, well, it's funny, right? 448 00:25:18,600 --> 00:25:22,280 Because it's always like there's a peak and then Bitcoin died 449 00:25:22,320 --> 00:25:27,080 like 1-2 or, you know, 100 times or whatever and people lose 450 00:25:27,080 --> 00:25:30,240 interest. And you know, I, I really like 451 00:25:30,240 --> 00:25:34,800 this idea of, of every cycle, whichever 1 you define as a 452 00:25:34,800 --> 00:25:37,240 cycle, how long, right? There's people that adopt 453 00:25:37,240 --> 00:25:42,400 Bitcoin on the way up, but then it goes down a certain amount of 454 00:25:42,400 --> 00:25:44,560 these new people also drop out, right? 455 00:25:44,560 --> 00:25:46,080 They sell at the loss or whatever. 456 00:25:46,080 --> 00:25:49,280 And there's always like a new. Group of of. 457 00:25:49,320 --> 00:25:53,680 Huddlers that then, you know, make this little step change 458 00:25:53,680 --> 00:25:57,680 basically, and then it goes on and on. 459 00:25:57,680 --> 00:26:00,720 But like the first thing I'm thinking when I'm seeing this is 460 00:26:00,720 --> 00:26:04,480 also there's been a massive amount of FUD as well, right? 461 00:26:04,480 --> 00:26:08,880 So, yeah, you know, you see the peaks here. 462 00:26:08,880 --> 00:26:12,480 Let's say, you know, between 2024 and 25, you have these two 463 00:26:13,800 --> 00:26:16,280 peaks of interest, and that's also where the price goes up. 464 00:26:16,280 --> 00:26:20,280 Funnily enough, it's about halfway through the actual price 465 00:26:20,600 --> 00:26:21,640 movement, right? So gosh. 466 00:26:22,080 --> 00:26:24,760 There's been so much and remember Jane, we're all 467 00:26:24,760 --> 00:26:27,640 forgetting about Jane St. And like all these, all these 468 00:26:27,640 --> 00:26:30,040 sort of negative narratives over the past, you know, 5. 469 00:26:30,040 --> 00:26:32,720 Yeah, but that could also make the spikes, right? 470 00:26:32,720 --> 00:26:35,840 So or like the little spike. Oh, I see what you're saying, 471 00:26:35,920 --> 00:26:37,240 Yeah. Like it could also be that 472 00:26:37,240 --> 00:26:40,400 people are like, oh shit, you know, Bitcoin didn't die, but 473 00:26:40,520 --> 00:26:43,000 there's a new thought. I need to check it out, right? 474 00:26:43,000 --> 00:26:45,160 Because I don't want Bitcoin to win, or I don't want to 475 00:26:45,160 --> 00:26:47,280 understand it or whatever. It's a good point. 476 00:26:47,400 --> 00:26:49,880 It's a good point. Like it's because this doesn't 477 00:26:49,880 --> 00:26:52,200 tell you if it's positive or or negative things, right? 478 00:26:52,360 --> 00:26:53,040 Yeah, but I. Think so? 479 00:26:53,080 --> 00:26:55,720 I don't know. I think when I've zoomed in, 480 00:26:55,720 --> 00:26:58,240 I'll just say, I think the only reason I push back on that is 481 00:26:58,240 --> 00:27:01,000 that the negative stuff, I immediately jump to see what 482 00:27:01,000 --> 00:27:04,640 Syntex doing and it causes these really big spikes like like kind 483 00:27:04,640 --> 00:27:07,480 of what you're what you're alluding to, but I think I like. 484 00:27:07,560 --> 00:27:10,080 This spike after 2021? Sorry. 485 00:27:10,320 --> 00:27:14,400 Like I like the spike after 2021, which is literally the the 486 00:27:15,320 --> 00:27:18,880 the double top right. It's like super interested and 487 00:27:18,880 --> 00:27:22,520 boom like it it just it just. We had that second top despite 488 00:27:22,640 --> 00:27:25,040 yeah like engagement or you know, engagement around the 489 00:27:25,040 --> 00:27:27,040 topic being half yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. 490 00:27:27,040 --> 00:27:31,800 So something to watch for sure. Golden macro I I I crowned 491 00:27:31,800 --> 00:27:35,360 myself a a macro analyst in addition to Bitcoin as of last 492 00:27:35,400 --> 00:27:38,000 last year sometime. So I'm being a little tongue in 493 00:27:38,000 --> 00:27:42,440 cheek, but so I think gold, gold there's this idea which is true, 494 00:27:42,440 --> 00:27:47,080 which is that the Bitcoin bull runs tend to follow gold bull 495 00:27:47,080 --> 00:27:50,240 runs. But I think most, what a lot of 496 00:27:50,240 --> 00:27:53,600 people don't see is like it's not obvious when we're having a 497 00:27:53,600 --> 00:27:55,360 gold run. And I don't even know if people 498 00:27:55,360 --> 00:27:58,000 remember when they've been because the one that we've had 499 00:27:58,000 --> 00:28:02,560 since, you know, 2024 has been so gargantuan and historic. 500 00:28:02,840 --> 00:28:05,880 It's, there's been nothing like it in, in especially for 501 00:28:05,880 --> 00:28:07,480 millennials. You know, your podcast is from 502 00:28:07,720 --> 00:28:09,760 millennials. It's like, I don't think most of 503 00:28:09,760 --> 00:28:11,240 us remember anything like this for gold. 504 00:28:11,240 --> 00:28:14,760 So what you can do is normalize it for the moving average. 505 00:28:14,760 --> 00:28:17,160 So the top plot there is again, the residuals. 506 00:28:17,160 --> 00:28:20,360 So you can see the true bubbles of Bitcoin highlighted those, 507 00:28:20,360 --> 00:28:23,280 those bull runs in orange did the same thing for gold. 508 00:28:24,200 --> 00:28:26,240 So you can kind of trace these to each other. 509 00:28:27,040 --> 00:28:29,360 And the interesting thing to me about this is there's been a 510 00:28:29,360 --> 00:28:30,800 change, there's been sort of a lag. 511 00:28:31,280 --> 00:28:33,800 So it's a squishy, this is a squishy narrative, which I 512 00:28:33,800 --> 00:28:37,760 totally admit. But the lag between say the peak 513 00:28:37,960 --> 00:28:41,120 of when, you know, Bitcoin or sorry, gold starts to cool off 514 00:28:41,240 --> 00:28:42,840 and then Bitcoin starts to take off. 515 00:28:43,640 --> 00:28:45,600 The lag there has been shrinking and shrinking. 516 00:28:46,280 --> 00:28:49,320 And this is just something I, I put this might have been a week 517 00:28:49,320 --> 00:28:52,440 and 1/2 or so ago or maybe a little bit more at this point. 518 00:28:52,440 --> 00:28:59,040 But I mean, in the midst of gold having its heyday, it, it 519 00:28:59,040 --> 00:29:02,120 actually took like a 25% drop, which you can see here. 520 00:29:02,120 --> 00:29:03,920 This is what I was trying to highlight in this post. 521 00:29:04,720 --> 00:29:07,640 You see it in the residual plot as well as the raw price plot. 522 00:29:08,720 --> 00:29:11,560 Pretty massive drop relative to what gold's been doing. 523 00:29:11,840 --> 00:29:15,440 Jump ahead to this. You can see it stand out in the 524 00:29:15,440 --> 00:29:19,080 returns, the relative returns. So here I'm showing the relative 525 00:29:19,080 --> 00:29:23,640 returns of gold and Bitcoin the difference between the two. 526 00:29:25,200 --> 00:29:27,880 For my European friends that want to buy Bitcoin with ease, 527 00:29:27,880 --> 00:29:30,720 check out Relay. I've been a long time fan and 528 00:29:30,720 --> 00:29:33,840 happy to partner up with what I think is the best Bitcoin only 529 00:29:33,840 --> 00:29:37,160 platform for Europeans. They offer a super simple 530 00:29:37,160 --> 00:29:41,360 beginner friendly app with no distractions and no shit coins. 531 00:29:41,720 --> 00:29:44,960 You can do a quick one time smash buy or set up automatic 532 00:29:44,960 --> 00:29:47,240 purchases when you're stacking regularly. 533 00:29:47,720 --> 00:29:49,240 And here's the thing that matters most. 534 00:29:49,520 --> 00:29:54,160 Relay is 100% self custody. Every set you hold is yours, 535 00:29:54,360 --> 00:29:57,280 your keys, your coins. If you want to get started, 536 00:29:57,280 --> 00:29:59,960 download the app file in my link below or in the description and 537 00:29:59,960 --> 00:30:04,320 use code BRUM, that's BR AM at checkout to get 10% of your 538 00:30:04,320 --> 00:30:06,320 fees. A huge shout out to Relay for 539 00:30:06,320 --> 00:30:08,360 sponsoring the show. Now let's continue. 540 00:30:08,520 --> 00:30:15,320 I feel sometimes that, you know, the Bitcoin adoption is driven 541 00:30:15,320 --> 00:30:19,120 by an actual fundamental understanding. 542 00:30:20,160 --> 00:30:21,480 A lot of people are not going to like this. 543 00:30:21,480 --> 00:30:23,880 But you know, I, I think you need to do more. 544 00:30:24,040 --> 00:30:25,840 I I think you need to do more work. 545 00:30:25,840 --> 00:30:28,640 Yeah, I think you need to do more work to actually understand 546 00:30:28,640 --> 00:30:31,440 Bitcoin. But once you understand it and 547 00:30:31,440 --> 00:30:35,040 like if if you even understand the point that you know, Bitcoin 548 00:30:35,040 --> 00:30:39,040 is gold with teleportation built in and way more like if that 549 00:30:39,040 --> 00:30:42,240 doesn't interest you, but you're interested in gold, then you 550 00:30:42,240 --> 00:30:43,840 know, I, I don't really know what to tell you. 551 00:30:43,840 --> 00:30:46,760 But anyway, like the, the fundamental understanding of 552 00:30:46,760 --> 00:30:52,600 Bitcoin and in and in its place in the thesis that it has that I 553 00:30:52,600 --> 00:30:56,560 just mentioned, right? Like the infinite debasement of 554 00:30:56,560 --> 00:30:58,800 Fiat money and so on and so on and so on. 555 00:31:00,880 --> 00:31:05,280 I think it takes more time. So Bitcoin is slower, but 556 00:31:05,640 --> 00:31:12,640 Bitcoin holders I think are, are growing also when you look at 557 00:31:12,640 --> 00:31:14,800 the, the hollow waves, right? So I think they're more 558 00:31:14,800 --> 00:31:19,520 steadfast. And when the kind of like the 559 00:31:19,520 --> 00:31:23,160 narrative picks up of, oh, their scales in the world or money 560 00:31:23,160 --> 00:31:27,360 printing or, you know, whatever, many people that haven't done 561 00:31:27,360 --> 00:31:30,360 the work just go to the narrative. 562 00:31:30,400 --> 00:31:32,800 Oh, you know, this is, this is when you need to own gold. 563 00:31:34,680 --> 00:31:38,000 And, and so I think the gold narrative is just, I'm still 564 00:31:38,000 --> 00:31:41,000 going to make a video that is gold is a meme coin, right? 565 00:31:41,000 --> 00:31:44,120 Because I think the gold narrative is way stronger than 566 00:31:44,120 --> 00:31:46,040 the Bitcoin narrative, obviously. 567 00:31:46,400 --> 00:31:50,480 And it's also that Bitcoin is just way harder to, to 568 00:31:50,480 --> 00:31:53,000 understand. So I hope that makes sense, like 569 00:31:53,000 --> 00:31:57,760 the the bar to actually understanding Bitcoin at a deep 570 00:31:57,760 --> 00:32:03,240 level so that you're holding it in cold storage forever. 571 00:32:03,240 --> 00:32:07,600 Basically like a lot of OG gold box are doing as well. 572 00:32:07,840 --> 00:32:09,560 I think that just takes a longer time. 573 00:32:09,560 --> 00:32:15,680 So the the the the bar to get to or how do you say like the the 574 00:32:15,680 --> 00:32:18,200 the hump people need to get over to get into gold. 575 00:32:18,200 --> 00:32:23,120 It's just way, way lower than Bitcoin. 576 00:32:23,120 --> 00:32:27,520 So this is also why I think, you know, gold kind of outperformed 577 00:32:27,520 --> 00:32:31,640 Bitcoin in the in the previous months because, yeah, just more 578 00:32:31,640 --> 00:32:34,640 people know about it and they know, you know, own gold in 579 00:32:34,640 --> 00:32:39,440 times of chaos or whatever the the the narration or the meme 580 00:32:39,560 --> 00:32:42,680 basically basically is. I think it's just way stronger 581 00:32:42,680 --> 00:32:47,160 with way, way, way more people. So that's kind of my fault 582 00:32:47,160 --> 00:32:51,160 around this. But then fundamentally, right, 583 00:32:51,480 --> 00:32:57,840 you know, Bitcoin is leaps beyond a goals, especially in 584 00:32:58,000 --> 00:33:01,160 an, in, in a digital age like 2026, but that's a different 585 00:33:01,160 --> 00:33:02,480 conversation. But I, I just think it's 586 00:33:02,480 --> 00:33:07,240 interesting that there is a kind of understanding of the need for 587 00:33:07,240 --> 00:33:14,000 hard money or a hard asset, but the step from just knowing, you 588 00:33:14,000 --> 00:33:18,000 know, you need to have gold and chaos to let me see why they 589 00:33:18,000 --> 00:33:20,040 call Bitcoin hard money or whatever. 590 00:33:20,240 --> 00:33:22,560 I think it's just too big for the majority of people. 591 00:33:22,560 --> 00:33:23,680 So it's just. Yeah. 592 00:33:24,120 --> 00:33:25,800 Getting into gold is just easier. 593 00:33:25,800 --> 00:33:29,880 Way, way easier. I agree with pretty much 594 00:33:29,880 --> 00:33:32,200 everything you just said there. I mean, I don't even know. 595 00:33:32,440 --> 00:33:35,120 I think I've always sort of thought that there is a 596 00:33:35,760 --> 00:33:41,320 characteristic time delay, right, Like the adoption of 597 00:33:41,320 --> 00:33:44,000 Bitcoin, just talking about adoption, which I think is the 598 00:33:44,000 --> 00:33:48,600 key to Bitcoin price in the long term and that we are seeing that 599 00:33:48,600 --> 00:33:50,760 it's just again in the short term we don't really notice it, 600 00:33:50,760 --> 00:33:52,560 but it is happening. It's still happening. 601 00:33:52,960 --> 00:33:54,720 I agree. And I've always thought that 602 00:33:54,880 --> 00:34:01,960 there's a characteristic human brain rooted time delay to 603 00:34:02,040 --> 00:34:05,560 gaining that understanding of what money means, how to secure 604 00:34:05,560 --> 00:34:08,280 your own money, how to manage the technology. 605 00:34:08,280 --> 00:34:09,719 I mean, there's a lot that goes into it. 606 00:34:09,719 --> 00:34:12,440 I mean, I don't know if you, you've probably tried to train 607 00:34:12,440 --> 00:34:14,600 and, and on board a lot of your friends and family or whatever, 608 00:34:14,600 --> 00:34:16,800 but it's not, it doesn't happen overnight. 609 00:34:16,800 --> 00:34:19,520 And the systems are the, the rails are already in place for 610 00:34:19,520 --> 00:34:21,360 gold. And so it's like you get into it 611 00:34:21,360 --> 00:34:24,360 because you know, that's the hedge against, that's the hedge 612 00:34:24,360 --> 00:34:26,360 of production in, in, in uncertain times. 613 00:34:26,360 --> 00:34:27,560 And that's, that's the narrative. 614 00:34:27,560 --> 00:34:29,320 It's got a, it's got a narrative place. 615 00:34:30,600 --> 00:34:32,280 So it's got the institutions in place. 616 00:34:32,679 --> 00:34:35,120 And we're, we're seeing that transition now. 617 00:34:35,120 --> 00:34:38,199 But I think it with Bitcoin, it always seems to happen around 618 00:34:38,199 --> 00:34:39,600 this. It takes about the same amount 619 00:34:39,600 --> 00:34:42,800 of time per person to get them on board on average. 620 00:34:43,159 --> 00:34:45,880 So I I. But the the gold outperforming 621 00:34:45,880 --> 00:34:51,520 Bitcoin from 2025 like let's say July 25 to now. 622 00:34:52,040 --> 00:34:53,840 Things are all that red, right? So. 623 00:34:54,280 --> 00:34:56,480 Could you go longer back? I think that would be 624 00:34:56,480 --> 00:34:59,080 interesting to be honest. Like could you go back longer 625 00:34:59,080 --> 00:35:04,680 and have like certain relationship to whatever 626 00:35:04,680 --> 00:35:06,360 happened then? Like what? 627 00:35:06,360 --> 00:35:08,760 What does the COVID time look like is something I would. 628 00:35:08,760 --> 00:35:10,840 That's a good question. I don't, I need to pull, I need 629 00:35:10,840 --> 00:35:13,120 to make that chart. So you got. 630 00:35:13,200 --> 00:35:14,400 But it's interesting like that's a. 631 00:35:14,520 --> 00:35:16,280 That's a great point. I don't think you're the first 632 00:35:16,280 --> 00:35:19,280 person to ask. Yeah, I think going back to 633 00:35:19,280 --> 00:35:22,280 COVID times, basically what you and you could sort of infer like 634 00:35:22,280 --> 00:35:25,520 the lassie. Proper chaotic time is more what 635 00:35:25,520 --> 00:35:26,840 I mean. Like, you know where it was 636 00:35:27,040 --> 00:35:30,240 clear to people that something. I think, you know, you know, 637 00:35:30,240 --> 00:35:32,400 Matthew Mesinski's right. Yeah, yeah. 638 00:35:32,560 --> 00:35:34,160 One base money. He's he's excellent. 639 00:35:34,160 --> 00:35:36,000 He's also going to be, we're doing a panel with him at 640 00:35:36,000 --> 00:35:37,520 Prague, by the way. Very cool. 641 00:35:37,960 --> 00:35:41,600 It's going to be awesome. But he had a couple shows, 642 00:35:41,600 --> 00:35:46,160 couple charts or whatever showing the years that gold like 643 00:35:46,160 --> 00:35:50,000 gold actually does about performing a Bitcoin in certain 644 00:35:50,000 --> 00:35:52,440 years. And then other years Bitcoin 645 00:35:52,440 --> 00:35:55,320 just blows gold out of completely out of the water, 646 00:35:55,320 --> 00:35:58,720 right. And so my guess is if I were to 647 00:35:58,720 --> 00:36:03,600 back extrapolate and show the years past COVID and all that, 648 00:36:04,040 --> 00:36:06,840 you probably see some spreckels of of red with a little bit of 649 00:36:06,840 --> 00:36:08,840 dips like this. And then it would go back to 650 00:36:08,840 --> 00:36:11,600 pretty shallow. But relatively speaking, you 651 00:36:11,600 --> 00:36:14,880 would never see anything like down into the drawing down in 652 00:36:14,880 --> 00:36:18,560 the negative 20s or 30s where gold is just kicking, you know, 653 00:36:18,600 --> 00:36:19,400 bitcoins. But. 654 00:36:19,880 --> 00:36:23,640 This is just why I think gold is narrative driven, if I'm 655 00:36:23,640 --> 00:36:26,840 completely honest, Like it is driven in this time of chaos. 656 00:36:26,840 --> 00:36:29,520 Like this is what you need to buy and central banks are buying 657 00:36:29,520 --> 00:36:32,200 and this and that. And I mean, it's, it's not 658 00:36:32,200 --> 00:36:37,600 untrue, but I think there's a different deeper thesis that 659 00:36:37,600 --> 00:36:41,560 Bitcoin plays in well, that people that figure out Bitcoin 660 00:36:41,920 --> 00:36:45,920 figure out, right, that it's a, it's a, it's a longer time frame 661 00:36:45,920 --> 00:36:50,800 than just the XYZ months where something is happening and 662 00:36:50,800 --> 00:36:53,800 there's a global chaos and, and, and, and whatnot. 663 00:36:53,800 --> 00:36:57,920 So that's kind of the, for me, the difference, but I know a lot 664 00:36:57,920 --> 00:37:00,960 of people don't like hear me saying that. 665 00:37:01,080 --> 00:37:03,920 Well, I think a really good whole other podcast we could do 666 00:37:03,920 --> 00:37:06,800 on just like what is going to happen if we have something like 667 00:37:06,800 --> 00:37:08,880 a global financial crisis too, right? 668 00:37:08,880 --> 00:37:12,200 Or people were afraid that oil was going to go up to 200 and 669 00:37:12,200 --> 00:37:14,600 stay up there and we're going to have a complete global economic 670 00:37:14,600 --> 00:37:16,040 meltdown. What does Bitcoin do then, 671 00:37:16,040 --> 00:37:17,520 right? That's a good question. 672 00:37:18,000 --> 00:37:20,160 We could. Well, there's a lot of people 673 00:37:20,160 --> 00:37:23,840 that say, you know, it would go down with everything because 674 00:37:23,840 --> 00:37:28,280 still the majority of people treated as a short term 675 00:37:28,760 --> 00:37:32,200 investment type risk on asset, right? 676 00:37:32,200 --> 00:37:37,760 And so a next global financial crisis would ultimately risk 677 00:37:37,760 --> 00:37:40,320 off. So although you and I might 678 00:37:40,320 --> 00:37:45,480 think all these people would be wrong in not picking Bitcoin, 679 00:37:47,560 --> 00:37:50,400 they might look right. I mean, I, I probably align with 680 00:37:50,400 --> 00:37:51,120 that. Yeah. 681 00:37:51,120 --> 00:37:53,360 Because still the majority of people see it as an investment 682 00:37:53,560 --> 00:37:56,360 or trade. So that's kind of why I think 683 00:37:56,360 --> 00:37:59,320 that is so. But yeah, more, more cheap sets 684 00:37:59,320 --> 00:38:01,040 for us. And then and then later on, 685 00:38:01,040 --> 00:38:02,880 they'll, they'll tell us we got lucky. 686 00:38:03,160 --> 00:38:06,680 So I mean, it's it's if you look back over Bitcoins life to see 687 00:38:06,680 --> 00:38:10,600 the amount of negative narratives that Bitcoin has 688 00:38:11,080 --> 00:38:14,280 looking four years back had completely destroyed and then 689 00:38:14,280 --> 00:38:16,040 moved in order of magnitude higher. 690 00:38:16,560 --> 00:38:18,560 Yeah. It's just it's so I have to 691 00:38:18,560 --> 00:38:20,520 believe it's going to do it again in a situation like that. 692 00:38:20,520 --> 00:38:22,360 It's just it's. Entertaining dude, it's just 693 00:38:22,360 --> 00:38:23,320 fun. Yeah, yeah. 694 00:38:23,760 --> 00:38:27,400 So this is like basically the same data brand, but I, I 695 00:38:27,400 --> 00:38:31,240 actually made it more specific. So I wanted to see when Bitcoin 696 00:38:31,240 --> 00:38:35,040 is outperforming gold, is that because of Bitcoins price moving 697 00:38:35,040 --> 00:38:38,440 or is it because of gold's price tanking and then vice versa. 698 00:38:38,440 --> 00:38:42,480 So underneath, I didn't mean to make these Ukrainian flag colors 699 00:38:42,480 --> 00:38:47,840 by the way, but get the the on the downside, the negative 700 00:38:47,840 --> 00:38:51,480 values here are when gold is outperforming Bitcoin, but it's 701 00:38:51,480 --> 00:38:53,240 split out. If it's yellow, it means that 702 00:38:53,240 --> 00:38:58,280 it's that is due to gold having a surge versus Bitcoin having a 703 00:38:58,280 --> 00:39:03,480 tank, if that makes sense. So I figured if I if I got this 704 00:39:03,480 --> 00:39:07,200 specific and then I zoomed in of course since like beginning of 705 00:39:07,200 --> 00:39:08,400 January. Yeah. 706 00:39:08,840 --> 00:39:11,600 I noticed this right here. If this hodgepodge is sort of 707 00:39:11,600 --> 00:39:14,880 orange and then a lot of red ticking up from the blue. 708 00:39:15,040 --> 00:39:16,520 Yeah, this is interesting to me too. 709 00:39:16,520 --> 00:39:21,880 And you don't really get it from the you don't really get it from 710 00:39:21,880 --> 00:39:23,240 this. You only get it if you do this. 711 00:39:23,720 --> 00:39:27,680 And if you look back at, say, the last three years of data, 712 00:39:28,520 --> 00:39:30,360 you pretty much haven't seen any of that. 713 00:39:30,360 --> 00:39:32,920 And this is around the same time scale that gold has started to 714 00:39:32,920 --> 00:39:35,680 go on an exponential trend, kicking Bitcoin's butt. 715 00:39:36,520 --> 00:39:40,840 And so I again, it's, this is a hypothesis, but I think this 716 00:39:40,840 --> 00:39:44,440 might be the meaning of a gold rotating into Bitcoin signal. 717 00:39:44,800 --> 00:39:48,200 And the reason of that is that while it's not the first time 718 00:39:48,200 --> 00:39:51,720 we've seen Bitcoin having a, a small relative run against gold, 719 00:39:52,360 --> 00:39:54,480 it's the first time that this has happened in the past three 720 00:39:54,480 --> 00:39:57,240 years. That's due specifically to 721 00:39:58,680 --> 00:40:02,400 gold's massive drop. Like that's a first in in a 722 00:40:02,400 --> 00:40:04,640 really long time. And so that's why I think it's 723 00:40:04,640 --> 00:40:06,560 an interesting thing to keep an eye on. 724 00:40:06,560 --> 00:40:09,240 And of course, this also represents a huge drop in what 725 00:40:09,240 --> 00:40:11,040 did gold's market cap do here, right? 726 00:40:11,560 --> 00:40:15,040 And Bitcoin stayed stayed pretty much the same over that. 727 00:40:15,160 --> 00:40:15,840 So I think that's. True. 728 00:40:15,840 --> 00:40:17,640 That would be my question, right? 729 00:40:17,640 --> 00:40:24,600 Like if Bitcoin crabs along sideways and gold drops, would 730 00:40:24,600 --> 00:40:27,960 you see this signal? Or is this really the divergent 731 00:40:28,120 --> 00:40:32,400 between gold going down and Bitcoin going up? 732 00:40:33,080 --> 00:40:36,200 This is basically the what you're seeing here, this rise 733 00:40:36,200 --> 00:40:38,800 from the blue up into the red here, which is unique over the 734 00:40:38,800 --> 00:40:41,720 past three years. This is the impact of Bitcoin. 735 00:40:44,400 --> 00:40:47,120 Let's see, because this is the Bitcoin gold ratio. 736 00:40:47,120 --> 00:40:48,800 Yeah. So Bitcoin staying roughly the 737 00:40:48,800 --> 00:40:52,840 same and gold taking a huge relative drop. 738 00:40:53,880 --> 00:40:56,600 So that's what the that's what the red specifically means. 739 00:40:56,600 --> 00:40:59,440 So gold drop is driving the red. Yeah. 740 00:40:59,440 --> 00:41:01,640 And that's the unique signal that you're really seeing from 741 00:41:01,640 --> 00:41:03,400 the past, from the past month or so. 742 00:41:03,840 --> 00:41:06,880 Let's see. So this is so Speaking of, this 743 00:41:06,880 --> 00:41:10,600 is a new area of research I'm doing, which is looking at the 744 00:41:10,600 --> 00:41:15,160 cost of production. And this specific model is 745 00:41:15,480 --> 00:41:21,560 heavily inspired by an, an analyst on X named Kunta or 746 00:41:21,560 --> 00:41:22,880 Paul. I think he goes by Paul. 747 00:41:22,880 --> 00:41:26,200 I don't know him personally, but pretty much all he's focused on 748 00:41:26,200 --> 00:41:30,760 I think for years is looking at cost of production frameworks. 749 00:41:30,760 --> 00:41:34,080 And so people should definitely go give him a follow if they 750 00:41:34,080 --> 00:41:37,680 haven't already on XI took his framework where you're, you're 751 00:41:37,680 --> 00:41:40,800 basically looking at issuance and difficulty. 752 00:41:42,600 --> 00:41:47,200 And I'm building a model that is essentially fit to the bottoms 753 00:41:47,200 --> 00:41:49,920 of the different cycles here. So I think we do the fitting a 754 00:41:49,920 --> 00:41:51,720 little bit differently between the two of us. 755 00:41:51,720 --> 00:41:53,160 I'd like to have a conversation with him. 756 00:41:54,240 --> 00:41:57,880 So this is a in an approximation, I would say this, 757 00:41:57,920 --> 00:42:01,720 this solid blue line of the cost of production which you can see 758 00:42:01,720 --> 00:42:06,760 traces the bottoms and the price really doesn't like to go below 759 00:42:06,760 --> 00:42:09,440 that very often, but there are periods when it definitely does. 760 00:42:10,000 --> 00:42:13,640 So what I did was I, I think I'm the first to show this, but I 761 00:42:13,880 --> 00:42:18,360 actually fit that cost of production data that was 762 00:42:18,360 --> 00:42:22,360 generated to a power law. And the power law fit is an even 763 00:42:22,360 --> 00:42:24,280 stronger fit than the price itself. 764 00:42:24,280 --> 00:42:28,040 So it's, I think it's like 98, it's like 98 point something. 765 00:42:28,960 --> 00:42:31,920 And so to me, it's like now you've got an average sort of 766 00:42:31,920 --> 00:42:34,120 floor price model, which is kind of cool. 767 00:42:34,800 --> 00:42:38,720 And if you zoom in, there's really only been one time that 768 00:42:38,720 --> 00:42:41,880 the price is falling below that quote UN quote average floor 769 00:42:41,880 --> 00:42:46,160 price, which was the FTX crash the the end of the end of the 770 00:42:46,160 --> 00:42:48,640 bubble from 2020-2021. Yeah. 771 00:42:49,000 --> 00:42:52,160 The other cool thing about this is that if you use the cost of 772 00:42:52,160 --> 00:42:57,920 production data or the proxy to it, at least it's a steeper 773 00:42:58,560 --> 00:43:01,480 incline for the fundamental power law, right? 774 00:43:01,480 --> 00:43:05,840 That it's a it's a higher growth, it's a steeper growth 775 00:43:05,840 --> 00:43:07,160 curve. I guess that's the way to put it 776 00:43:08,240 --> 00:43:10,040 for the support. And keep in mind this all for 777 00:43:10,040 --> 00:43:12,080 the support. So the volatility let's the 778 00:43:12,080 --> 00:43:16,200 price dance all around this, but pretty much solely on top of it 779 00:43:16,200 --> 00:43:18,280 so that the volatility is all to the upside. 780 00:43:18,920 --> 00:43:21,360 But that tells us that, you know, right now we're pretty 781 00:43:21,360 --> 00:43:24,560 much right there for the average cost of production floor, 782 00:43:24,640 --> 00:43:26,320 calling it a floor with air quotes. 783 00:43:26,720 --> 00:43:30,520 But in two years, and that's at 70,000 today, in two years it's 784 00:43:30,520 --> 00:43:33,040 basically double so and that's the bottom floor. 785 00:43:33,040 --> 00:43:37,400 So we're going to be almost, you know, 95% chance we're going to 786 00:43:37,400 --> 00:43:40,560 be well north of that in two years and then in four years 787 00:43:40,560 --> 00:43:44,160 it's going to be 250,000. So anyway, I just love, I love 788 00:43:44,160 --> 00:43:46,800 to look ahead and it kind of it's like it's exciting to look 789 00:43:46,800 --> 00:43:50,440 at long term bullish. I think this is pretty much the 790 00:43:50,440 --> 00:43:52,040 way we can wrap it up. Bram. 791 00:43:52,040 --> 00:43:56,400 I just wanted to tie it back together and let everybody know 792 00:43:56,400 --> 00:44:00,240 that I have not forgotten about my retirement content that I 793 00:44:00,240 --> 00:44:02,600 shared a lot of last year and I knew we, we chatted about. 794 00:44:02,600 --> 00:44:04,760 So I pretty much just updated the numbers. 795 00:44:04,760 --> 00:44:10,680 But 2025 is in the past but the numbers have changed a minuscule 796 00:44:10,680 --> 00:44:14,200 amount. I that it's like not even 2% and 797 00:44:14,280 --> 00:44:18,800 in 20-30 it's looking like at least if you are living off AUS 798 00:44:18,800 --> 00:44:23,600 dollar framework and you are living on the equivalent roughly 799 00:44:23,600 --> 00:44:28,400 of $100,000 a year by 20-30 theoretically according to this 800 00:44:28,400 --> 00:44:32,800 with 7% of just inflation adjusted somewhere between 3 1/2 801 00:44:32,800 --> 00:44:36,040 to to to 4 1/2 seems to be the magic number if you're looking 802 00:44:36,040 --> 00:44:39,400 at a 20-30 timeline for for most ages. 803 00:44:40,120 --> 00:44:43,560 And is this you have to be the age at in that year? 804 00:44:45,000 --> 00:44:47,360 Is that no, that's the, that's the age today. 805 00:44:47,400 --> 00:44:51,800 So that's in 4-4 years you'd be. Yeah, exactly 4 years older, 806 00:44:52,040 --> 00:44:54,760 correct. OK, So, yeah, nice. 807 00:44:54,760 --> 00:44:57,240 Yeah, I love this. So I mean, I would encourage 808 00:44:57,240 --> 00:45:00,480 everyone to to check out our previous podcast where we go 809 00:45:00,480 --> 00:45:05,280 deep on on this and really like lay lay it out and how it works 810 00:45:05,280 --> 00:45:07,000 and also what it's based upon, right. 811 00:45:07,000 --> 00:45:11,080 It's the the, it has the the power laws, the fundamental 812 00:45:11,440 --> 00:45:14,800 basically prediction of where the price goes. 813 00:45:14,800 --> 00:45:19,360 So yeah, I would love for everyone who hasn't seen it to, 814 00:45:19,400 --> 00:45:22,120 to check it out. And yeah, very cool to see you 815 00:45:22,120 --> 00:45:24,600 updated it. I think you should, you know it, 816 00:45:24,640 --> 00:45:28,360 it would probably automatically update, right, with with all the 817 00:45:28,440 --> 00:45:31,000 new data. But you also told me you're 818 00:45:31,000 --> 00:45:33,440 going to make a website, right? Or do you have that on anywhere 819 00:45:33,440 --> 00:45:36,480 where you can do? Yes, yes, long time company. 820 00:45:36,480 --> 00:45:42,360 So Speaking of a live updated versions of this, please keep an 821 00:45:42,360 --> 00:45:44,360 eye out for not to tease again, to tease. 822 00:45:44,360 --> 00:45:47,400 I don't want to over tease. But very, very soon, Bram, that 823 00:45:47,400 --> 00:45:51,120 website will be up smithstonwith.com, and folks can 824 00:45:51,120 --> 00:45:54,800 have various versions and access to something like pretty much 825 00:45:54,800 --> 00:45:56,240 just like this. Yeah. 826 00:45:56,640 --> 00:45:57,960 So I'm excited about that. Yep. 827 00:45:58,120 --> 00:46:00,320 Awesome. Yeah, well, I'll, I'll link to 828 00:46:00,320 --> 00:46:02,760 your ex and also to your YouTube channel. 829 00:46:02,760 --> 00:46:04,640 I think you had a you had a slide with the. 830 00:46:04,640 --> 00:46:06,040 Yeah. Starting to YouTube as well, 831 00:46:06,120 --> 00:46:07,240 yeah. Yeah, awesome. 832 00:46:07,240 --> 00:46:10,280 So I'll link to that so people can follow you and check out, 833 00:46:10,280 --> 00:46:14,760 you know, any new data and stuff that you that you post. 834 00:46:14,760 --> 00:46:19,800 So I think I think it's very interesting and yeah, just a a 835 00:46:19,840 --> 00:46:22,320 cool update. I hope people found it valuable 836 00:46:22,320 --> 00:46:24,480 and I'm going to see you in Prague. 837 00:46:24,480 --> 00:46:27,800 I think you're going to have a a cool talk and then I actually 838 00:46:27,800 --> 00:46:30,960 get to see get to see your face. So I'm looking forward to that. 839 00:46:31,520 --> 00:46:34,240 Yeah, we'll see. My face might start to escape 840 00:46:34,240 --> 00:46:36,240 into the public. So, but I, I'm really looking 841 00:46:36,240 --> 00:46:38,600 forward to, to seeing you in person there, Bram and you, 842 00:46:38,600 --> 00:46:42,400 you're, I got to say, for the amount, you know, I don't do a 843 00:46:42,400 --> 00:46:44,960 ton of these podcasts, but you're absolutely one of my top 844 00:46:44,960 --> 00:46:48,160 favorite personalities to interact with intellectually and 845 00:46:48,280 --> 00:46:49,960 and otherwise. So thank you my friend for 846 00:46:50,000 --> 00:46:51,560 having. Appreciate, appreciate that. 847 00:46:51,720 --> 00:46:53,320 All right, man. See you soon. 848 00:46:53,600 --> 00:46:55,160 Cheers. See you soon. 849 00:46:55,600 --> 00:46:58,560 I hope you enjoyed this episode. If you did, you can click here 850 00:46:58,560 --> 00:47:01,920 to find more just like it and click here to find all Bitcoin 851 00:47:01,920 --> 00:47:03,840 for millennials podcast episodes. 852 00:47:04,200 --> 00:47:07,320 Also, if you want to help me shine a light on the message of 853 00:47:07,320 --> 00:47:11,480 Bitcoin, please like this video and subscribe to stay connected. 854 00:47:11,600 --> 00:47:13,320 I hope to see you for the next episode. 855 00:47:13,680 --> 00:47:13,880 Bye.