1 00:00:00,160 --> 00:00:03,200 Today on the Winning with Shopify podcast, a few people 2 00:00:03,200 --> 00:00:06,120 we've had on the podcast have said actually when Trump had his 3 00:00:06,120 --> 00:00:09,120 first term in office, they started importing from China 4 00:00:09,120 --> 00:00:12,840 materials instead of products. It's going to impact how you 5 00:00:12,840 --> 00:00:15,800 think about your business, how you price your own products. 6 00:00:15,840 --> 00:00:18,160 That tariff is is absolutely huge. 7 00:00:18,200 --> 00:00:20,040 This is what Donald Trump has said. 8 00:00:20,240 --> 00:00:23,680 You know, another 60%. But you know, at the end of the 9 00:00:23,680 --> 00:00:26,560 day, you need to pay attention closely to what actually will be 10 00:00:26,560 --> 00:00:27,720 done. People got to adjust. 11 00:00:27,720 --> 00:00:29,760 Like you, you really took me back to my A level. 12 00:00:58,280 --> 00:00:59,920 So welcome to today's episode, everybody. 13 00:00:59,960 --> 00:01:02,960 Very different type of episode that I'm very, very excited 14 00:01:02,960 --> 00:01:03,960 about. We're going to talk about a few 15 00:01:03,960 --> 00:01:06,760 things we don't normally talk about with my excellent guest, 16 00:01:06,760 --> 00:01:08,160 Lawrence. Sir Lawrence, welcome to the 17 00:01:08,160 --> 00:01:08,840 show. How are you? 18 00:01:09,000 --> 00:01:10,480 Hi, Nick. Yeah, I'm doing really well. 19 00:01:10,480 --> 00:01:11,760 Thanks. Great to be here. 20 00:01:12,680 --> 00:01:14,280 Great stuff. Well, great to have you on the 21 00:01:14,280 --> 00:01:16,120 show. And I said it's going to be 22 00:01:16,120 --> 00:01:18,040 quite a different show. And anyone that's seen the 23 00:01:18,040 --> 00:01:21,360 little clips before we get into this bit will be like, Oh my 24 00:01:21,360 --> 00:01:24,480 gosh, we've never spoken about economies, presidents, prime 25 00:01:24,480 --> 00:01:26,160 ministers and what's going on and other stuff. 26 00:01:26,560 --> 00:01:28,520 Tell us a bit about your background. 27 00:01:28,520 --> 00:01:30,640 Like, why have I invited you on the on the show today? 28 00:01:31,000 --> 00:01:32,760 Thanks, Nick. Yeah, hopefully, we'll be really 29 00:01:32,760 --> 00:01:35,120 interesting to dive into a few of these things today. 30 00:01:36,840 --> 00:01:39,800 I'm Lawrence. I work for an economic data 31 00:01:39,800 --> 00:01:46,800 provider, namely Bloomberg. My job is to get economic data 32 00:01:46,800 --> 00:01:50,080 out to our clients quickly and accurately for them to go and 33 00:01:50,080 --> 00:01:53,560 make decisions about where they want to invest their money, how 34 00:01:53,560 --> 00:01:57,320 they see the world, and using all that information to make, 35 00:01:57,320 --> 00:01:59,160 you know, strategic decisions basically. 36 00:02:00,360 --> 00:02:02,120 Amazing. And I mean, most of our 37 00:02:02,120 --> 00:02:05,680 listeners will be gung HO1 data. I hope if you're not guys, then 38 00:02:05,680 --> 00:02:07,920 you're doing it wrong. But we obviously look at a lot 39 00:02:07,920 --> 00:02:10,600 of data within kind of analytics, how Shopify is 40 00:02:10,600 --> 00:02:13,560 performing advertising campaigns, that sort of stuff. 41 00:02:13,560 --> 00:02:15,960 But just to be clear, guys and I, I sort of said to Lawrence, 42 00:02:15,960 --> 00:02:18,160 when we hit record, we may or may not touch on this, but just 43 00:02:18,160 --> 00:02:20,840 to be really clear, like what Lawrence isn't going to do today 44 00:02:20,840 --> 00:02:22,200 is tell you what you should be doing. 45 00:02:22,200 --> 00:02:24,320 He's going to explain like this is what the economies are doing. 46 00:02:24,320 --> 00:02:27,240 This is what the data says. However, I'm not regulated. 47 00:02:27,240 --> 00:02:30,280 So I am able to then say, so my advice is go and do this. 48 00:02:30,480 --> 00:02:32,960 And I can say that because I'm in a very different position to 49 00:02:32,960 --> 00:02:35,800 Lawrence, but I'm mostly going to try and focus on the outputs 50 00:02:35,800 --> 00:02:38,440 of what Lawrence tells us, what it means for us as an e-commerce 51 00:02:38,440 --> 00:02:40,560 business, what opportunities there might be. 52 00:02:40,800 --> 00:02:43,120 It's your job guys to take that away and go, that doesn't apply 53 00:02:43,120 --> 00:02:44,080 to me. It does apply to me. 54 00:02:44,080 --> 00:02:45,640 I'm going to try this, try this, try this. 55 00:02:45,640 --> 00:02:47,560 So let's dive in there, Lawrence. 56 00:02:47,600 --> 00:02:52,200 So let's start off with a very big question and I put in the 57 00:02:52,200 --> 00:02:56,720 notes snapshot, right? What do the UK and US look like 58 00:02:56,720 --> 00:03:01,160 for online retailers right now? Yeah, fantastic question. 59 00:03:01,200 --> 00:03:05,160 I think these, the answer to this question is going to be is 60 00:03:05,240 --> 00:03:09,120 definitely twofold. UK and US are definitely moving 61 00:03:09,120 --> 00:03:11,520 in different directions here. So maybe let's start with the 62 00:03:11,520 --> 00:03:16,000 Uki think, you know, we've just come through Christmas. 63 00:03:16,000 --> 00:03:20,080 You'd expect that to be a period of time where sales do well. 64 00:03:20,400 --> 00:03:23,360 I think the data kind of show that maybe it's a little bit 65 00:03:23,360 --> 00:03:26,360 more muted than it has been in the past. 66 00:03:26,960 --> 00:03:29,080 And I think a lot of that is going to be around due to 67 00:03:29,080 --> 00:03:31,880 confidence, like both consumer confidence, people are buying, 68 00:03:31,960 --> 00:03:35,400 buying your your goods and services and also business 69 00:03:35,400 --> 00:03:37,680 confidence as well. And I think we'll probably dig 70 00:03:37,680 --> 00:03:39,840 into this a little bit more, but around like the National 71 00:03:39,840 --> 00:03:41,960 Insurance side of things and, and what that means for 72 00:03:41,960 --> 00:03:45,520 businesses. I think, you know, looking 73 00:03:45,520 --> 00:03:49,080 forward there potentially, you know, some concerns there. 74 00:03:49,840 --> 00:03:53,920 On the other hand, USI think, you know, the last year 75 00:03:55,160 --> 00:03:58,480 consumers have kind of stayed quite strong despite like high 76 00:03:58,480 --> 00:04:00,200 inflation and high interest rates. 77 00:04:00,200 --> 00:04:04,000 They've been quite resilient to both inflation and low interest 78 00:04:04,000 --> 00:04:06,280 rates. And retail sales, like in 79 00:04:06,280 --> 00:04:09,600 December for the Christmas period seem to have done pretty 80 00:04:09,600 --> 00:04:13,480 well, definitely helped by things like Black Friday, you 81 00:04:13,480 --> 00:04:16,360 know, discounts online. And I think there is a little 82 00:04:16,360 --> 00:04:19,720 bit of optimism and though also a bit of uncertainty with Donald 83 00:04:19,720 --> 00:04:23,120 Trump coming to power next year. Well, end of this month 84 00:04:23,120 --> 00:04:25,880 actually. Absolutely. 85 00:04:25,880 --> 00:04:27,840 And I mean, there's always uncertainty when there's big 86 00:04:27,840 --> 00:04:30,480 changes at the top, isn't there? And I think, I think you've 87 00:04:30,480 --> 00:04:33,520 summed it up quite well that I, I think I and A lot of people 88 00:04:33,520 --> 00:04:36,040 are quite surprised actually, even just at the announcement of 89 00:04:36,040 --> 00:04:39,560 Trump, there was certainly, I mean, if you, if social media in 90 00:04:39,560 --> 00:04:42,120 the UK was anything to go by, you'd think there's an economic 91 00:04:42,120 --> 00:04:44,320 crash and a social crash around the corner. 92 00:04:44,320 --> 00:04:47,160 But actually, things didn't do that at all when Trump was 93 00:04:47,160 --> 00:04:48,880 announced, didn't they? And correct me if I'm wrong on 94 00:04:48,880 --> 00:04:52,320 this, but from my kind of, you know, just consumerism approach 95 00:04:52,320 --> 00:04:54,400 the media of going, what's the media telling me? 96 00:04:54,680 --> 00:04:56,240 It looked like there was quite a nice jump. 97 00:04:56,320 --> 00:04:58,680 And I've got a couple of stats to share as well, just purely 98 00:04:58,680 --> 00:05:01,800 around Shopify in a SEC about actually what happened. 99 00:05:01,800 --> 00:05:04,400 But it seemed like there was a nice jump in the US, whereas 100 00:05:04,800 --> 00:05:06,720 almost kind of political announcements in the UK have had 101 00:05:06,720 --> 00:05:07,800 the opposite effect here, haven't they? 102 00:05:07,800 --> 00:05:09,720 As you say, it's two very different stories. 103 00:05:09,800 --> 00:05:11,920 Yeah, definitely. I, I mean, just touching on the 104 00:05:12,160 --> 00:05:16,120 US is, is there, there are two sides to, to Donald Trump coming 105 00:05:16,120 --> 00:05:20,560 in and one the one the side that is kind of positive that I think 106 00:05:20,560 --> 00:05:23,240 a lot of businesses will be happy about. 107 00:05:23,240 --> 00:05:26,280 And you see shopping business sentiment is that, you know, 108 00:05:26,520 --> 00:05:30,160 deregulation and tax cuts probably will boost economic 109 00:05:30,160 --> 00:05:34,680 growth definitely at the kind of this towards the start of his 110 00:05:35,200 --> 00:05:38,120 second regime. I think where you've got to be 111 00:05:38,120 --> 00:05:40,960 cautious and maybe we'll come on to this is, is around the 112 00:05:40,960 --> 00:05:43,960 tariffs and some of the uncertainty that plays up there. 113 00:05:43,960 --> 00:05:48,040 And obviously, if you have international supply chains in 114 00:05:48,040 --> 00:05:50,040 your business, that's something you need to really kind of 115 00:05:50,120 --> 00:05:52,520 consider and think about. So obviously there's a lot going 116 00:05:52,520 --> 00:05:56,160 on in the UK and US, but how are the politics and economies 117 00:05:56,160 --> 00:05:57,800 actually influencing retailers then? 118 00:05:57,800 --> 00:06:00,440 Like, are you seeing anything that retailers are doing 119 00:06:00,440 --> 00:06:02,480 differently, Any adjustments they're making? 120 00:06:02,480 --> 00:06:05,000 You mentioned obviously supply chains is something that people 121 00:06:05,000 --> 00:06:06,440 really need to look at, especially in the US at the 122 00:06:06,440 --> 00:06:08,480 moment. Yeah, what what are your 123 00:06:08,480 --> 00:06:10,240 thoughts on that? Is there any any data support or 124 00:06:10,240 --> 00:06:11,560 anything that that you guys are aware of? 125 00:06:12,360 --> 00:06:14,880 Yeah, I guess if we if we want to touch on supply chains and 126 00:06:14,880 --> 00:06:20,120 and tariffs, like if we think about the economics behind that 127 00:06:20,120 --> 00:06:22,800 policy with Donald Trump, So obviously he hasn't come into 128 00:06:22,800 --> 00:06:25,720 power yet and we don't quite know the extent of what he will 129 00:06:25,720 --> 00:06:29,440 actually do, but he talks a big game when it comes to tariffs. 130 00:06:29,440 --> 00:06:34,560 So we're looking at like potentially 60% tariffs on China 131 00:06:34,560 --> 00:06:38,040 and somewhere between like 10 and 20% tariffs on the rest of 132 00:06:38,040 --> 00:06:40,920 the world. And just to break it down, can I 133 00:06:40,920 --> 00:06:43,040 go back to first principles on this for economics? 134 00:06:43,040 --> 00:06:45,880 It's like tariffs really are, are designed to do one or two 135 00:06:45,880 --> 00:06:50,440 things, which is either protect an industry, domestic industry 136 00:06:50,440 --> 00:06:53,800 in the US in this case, or to raise revenue for the 137 00:06:53,800 --> 00:06:54,960 government, for the US government. 138 00:06:55,320 --> 00:07:00,200 And the way they work is that it's the importers though, the 139 00:07:00,480 --> 00:07:03,800 US businesses and and consumers that are importing goods from 140 00:07:03,800 --> 00:07:07,360 abroad that have to pay those tariffs on top of the prices of 141 00:07:07,360 --> 00:07:09,000 the goods that you would normally pay. 142 00:07:09,000 --> 00:07:13,200 So let's say you had a 10,000 U.S. dollar car imported from 143 00:07:13,200 --> 00:07:17,520 China, you'd have to pay another 6000 U.S. dollars on top of that 144 00:07:17,720 --> 00:07:20,840 in terms of import tariffs if it was set at 60%. 145 00:07:21,400 --> 00:07:26,480 So obviously those those will impact consumers and businesses 146 00:07:26,480 --> 00:07:28,960 negatively in terms of higher prices. 147 00:07:30,920 --> 00:07:33,600 And if you kind of break that down, think about your supply 148 00:07:33,600 --> 00:07:36,320 chain, I'm sure a lot of a lot of businesses have quite complex 149 00:07:36,320 --> 00:07:40,200 supply chains and from around the world, you know it's going 150 00:07:40,200 --> 00:07:43,360 to impact how you think about your business, how you price 151 00:07:43,640 --> 00:07:46,760 your own products. Do you absorb that cost? 152 00:07:46,760 --> 00:07:50,520 Do you pass that on? Will you see less demand for 153 00:07:50,520 --> 00:07:54,760 your goods if your goods go up by 10% or is that something that 154 00:07:54,760 --> 00:07:59,200 your consumers can actually absorb and and they will 155 00:07:59,200 --> 00:08:01,800 continue to buy? Absolutely. 156 00:08:01,800 --> 00:08:03,400 I think it's, it's a really important point. 157 00:08:03,400 --> 00:08:06,160 And I guess just just for reference, like how does the US 158 00:08:06,160 --> 00:08:10,200 tariffs specifically on China, given the growth of Alibaba? 159 00:08:10,200 --> 00:08:12,320 And I mean I've run businesses where we ordered everything from 160 00:08:12,320 --> 00:08:15,160 China, lots of companies in the US and UK do it and and other 161 00:08:15,160 --> 00:08:18,280 economies, like how does that compare to other countries? 162 00:08:18,280 --> 00:08:20,640 Like, does everyone kind of following suit with the US or is 163 00:08:20,640 --> 00:08:22,040 it quite an anomaly in that sense? 164 00:08:22,760 --> 00:08:25,240 I don't have the data to hand, but I think definitely, you 165 00:08:25,240 --> 00:08:28,600 know, in, you know, during the last Donald Trump presidency and 166 00:08:28,600 --> 00:08:33,039 we're expecting this one, those tariffs to increase under Biden, 167 00:08:33,080 --> 00:08:35,080 a lot of those tariffs were kept. 168 00:08:35,200 --> 00:08:37,559 They didn't change or they didn't get reduced. 169 00:08:38,080 --> 00:08:40,440 And I think that a large part of that is due to like the 170 00:08:40,440 --> 00:08:43,919 strategic nature of them, the industries that they're 171 00:08:43,919 --> 00:08:49,680 targeting and, and you know, the domestic US industries that the 172 00:08:49,840 --> 00:08:51,760 those administrations are trying to protect. 173 00:08:51,760 --> 00:08:54,880 So a lot, a lot of it also comes down to like security and like 174 00:08:55,800 --> 00:08:57,440 thinking about computing, for example. 175 00:08:57,440 --> 00:09:01,640 So you know, I don't have it compared to the rest of the 176 00:09:01,640 --> 00:09:03,360 world. They are definitely high against 177 00:09:03,360 --> 00:09:07,040 China And and you know, a lot of that is for strategic regions 178 00:09:07,480 --> 00:09:10,400 I'd I'd say. Yeah, yeah, absolutely. 179 00:09:10,440 --> 00:09:14,040 And I, I guess what it again, I said, I'll comment as much as I 180 00:09:14,040 --> 00:09:16,000 can for you guys listening on like what it means for you. 181 00:09:16,000 --> 00:09:18,320 And I think you put it quite well, Lawrence, that you need to 182 00:09:18,320 --> 00:09:21,400 look at supply chains and who you're relying on here. 183 00:09:22,120 --> 00:09:24,760 A few people we've had on the podcast have said, actually when 184 00:09:25,080 --> 00:09:29,000 Trump had his first term in office, they started importing 185 00:09:29,000 --> 00:09:32,600 from China materials instead of products and built their own 186 00:09:32,600 --> 00:09:36,640 chain of building here. I say here in the US, And I 187 00:09:36,640 --> 00:09:39,600 thought that was quite a good kind of response actually to it 188 00:09:39,600 --> 00:09:41,440 and probably what the US government were really aiming 189 00:09:41,440 --> 00:09:44,680 for with it, which was actually now we're doing more production 190 00:09:45,120 --> 00:09:47,320 on our own shores. But I know for a fact you'll 191 00:09:47,320 --> 00:09:49,320 tell me it's way more complicated than that, Lawrence, 192 00:09:49,320 --> 00:09:52,520 because obviously labour costs are higher compared to less 193 00:09:52,520 --> 00:09:55,000 transportation. If you're just moving Clay to 194 00:09:55,000 --> 00:09:56,920 the US and making your own products there. 195 00:09:57,640 --> 00:10:00,320 We spoke to you. They're called China Clay 196 00:10:00,320 --> 00:10:04,600 Imports and they actually have no reference at all to China. 197 00:10:04,600 --> 00:10:06,880 They're a business we had on the podcast a few months ago. 198 00:10:06,880 --> 00:10:08,760 If anyone missed them, they've, they've actually been on twice 199 00:10:08,760 --> 00:10:12,160 now, but they get everything from from Mexico. 200 00:10:12,760 --> 00:10:14,560 When they use the word China, it's only talking about the 201 00:10:14,560 --> 00:10:16,320 product. It's actually like China plates 202 00:10:16,320 --> 00:10:18,640 and stuff like that rather than the country. 203 00:10:18,880 --> 00:10:21,520 But they used to import, they told us from China, but they 204 00:10:21,520 --> 00:10:23,640 stopped doing that because Mexico was a lot cheaper and 205 00:10:23,640 --> 00:10:24,960 they get so straight across the border. 206 00:10:25,200 --> 00:10:27,000 So obviously better environmental impact. 207 00:10:27,000 --> 00:10:29,440 They actually moved their office from kind of, I think they're in 208 00:10:29,440 --> 00:10:31,920 the Midwest down to Texas. They're even closer to the 209 00:10:31,920 --> 00:10:34,600 border. So less distance to move that 210 00:10:34,600 --> 00:10:37,160 stuff across the border. And we've seen quite a few 211 00:10:37,160 --> 00:10:40,120 businesses do that. I think certainly we, we spoke 212 00:10:40,120 --> 00:10:42,680 about inventory management through peak quite a lot before 213 00:10:43,880 --> 00:10:47,280 before we got into peak in 2024. That's obviously a big thing 214 00:10:47,280 --> 00:10:49,800 that you guys need to look at with these forthcoming changes. 215 00:10:49,800 --> 00:10:52,960 Is I guess Trump in a way is kind of saying with this tariff 216 00:10:52,960 --> 00:10:55,120 and other things is like, we're just going to do stuff within 217 00:10:55,120 --> 00:10:57,120 the US now. Like let's do as much as we can 218 00:10:57,120 --> 00:10:58,520 here. And there's a lot of natural 219 00:10:58,520 --> 00:11:00,920 resources in the US, you know, whatever you make your products 220 00:11:01,080 --> 00:11:03,240 from, there's some really good ways of doing that. 221 00:11:03,600 --> 00:11:05,680 Portland leather goods are another business we've had on 222 00:11:05,680 --> 00:11:07,560 the show, I think at least two, possibly even three times. 223 00:11:07,560 --> 00:11:10,000 And they're looking at the beef industry and going because 224 00:11:10,040 --> 00:11:11,840 you're getting a lot of beef from cows, lots of leather gets 225 00:11:11,840 --> 00:11:13,720 thrown away. We're making products out of 226 00:11:13,720 --> 00:11:16,920 that by product of leather. They used to import it from, I 227 00:11:16,920 --> 00:11:18,800 don't know if it's from China, but I think they used to import 228 00:11:18,800 --> 00:11:21,280 initially and then they actually started getting leather from 229 00:11:21,280 --> 00:11:24,960 within the US because there's a big move to let's use US beef in 230 00:11:24,960 --> 00:11:27,480 our restaurants, in our supermarkets, etcetera, and 231 00:11:27,480 --> 00:11:29,880 using that by products. And they've gone from having 232 00:11:29,880 --> 00:11:32,600 their products made to now making them themselves as well. 233 00:11:33,840 --> 00:11:36,200 It's certainly, I think a big, big move towards towards that 234 00:11:36,200 --> 00:11:38,040 sort of thing. I remember when I was importing 235 00:11:38,040 --> 00:11:40,840 stuff from China, I think it's about 10 or 15% on sunglasses. 236 00:11:40,840 --> 00:11:45,160 I was importing in the UK just to show where, yeah, where where 237 00:11:45,160 --> 00:11:48,080 the US is at the moment with that tariff is, is absolutely 238 00:11:48,080 --> 00:11:50,560 huge. Is there anything else you're 239 00:11:50,560 --> 00:11:53,520 seeing, Lawrence, like even in the UK or any other economies or 240 00:11:53,520 --> 00:11:55,040 even as a global kind of movement? 241 00:11:55,360 --> 00:11:58,760 We've not mentioned the EU yet, which is obviously a big move. 242 00:11:58,760 --> 00:12:01,040 There was a big announcement I'll bring up in a bit purely in 243 00:12:01,040 --> 00:12:03,520 the marketing world from the EU that brought to my attention a 244 00:12:03,520 --> 00:12:05,440 few weeks ago. But is there anything else going 245 00:12:05,440 --> 00:12:07,560 on that you think kind of politically that's affecting 246 00:12:07,560 --> 00:12:10,240 economics, that actually retailers in particular are 247 00:12:10,240 --> 00:12:12,840 either a threat or actually there's an opportunity that, you 248 00:12:12,880 --> 00:12:14,320 know, might, might be coming their way? 249 00:12:15,200 --> 00:12:17,200 Yeah, definitely. I mean, I would love to just get 250 00:12:17,200 --> 00:12:19,480 on to the UK in a second as well. 251 00:12:19,800 --> 00:12:22,840 There's, there's a lot to be said there, but in terms of 252 00:12:23,280 --> 00:12:26,240 opportunities as well for, for the US with, with these tariffs 253 00:12:26,240 --> 00:12:29,280 is you also have to consider like where, what, what goods are 254 00:12:29,280 --> 00:12:32,800 being covered by these tariffs, what opportunities are there for 255 00:12:32,800 --> 00:12:36,360 you as well. And I think what you might some 256 00:12:36,360 --> 00:12:39,280 industries also might see is ahead of Donald Trump's 257 00:12:39,600 --> 00:12:43,120 introducing these tariffs, actually big increase in sales 258 00:12:43,880 --> 00:12:48,640 in things like big ticket items, cars, electronics or even 259 00:12:48,640 --> 00:12:52,240 materials, for example, like you were saying, because consumers 260 00:12:52,400 --> 00:12:57,160 actually want to get them now before price increases may may 261 00:12:57,160 --> 00:12:59,520 come about. So there definitely are 262 00:12:59,520 --> 00:13:01,400 opportunities. And I think, you know, you need 263 00:13:01,400 --> 00:13:04,760 to be strategic and think about exactly where this might happen. 264 00:13:05,400 --> 00:13:08,240 And I think it's also just to tie it up. 265 00:13:08,240 --> 00:13:11,920 I also think just to say that, you know, this is what Donald 266 00:13:11,920 --> 00:13:14,880 Trump has said, you know, another 60%. 267 00:13:14,880 --> 00:13:18,360 But, you know, at the end of the day, you need to pay attention 268 00:13:18,360 --> 00:13:20,200 closely to what actually will be done. 269 00:13:20,200 --> 00:13:24,800 So at the moment, there's a lot of uncertainty and to kind of 270 00:13:24,800 --> 00:13:27,640 tie up where we are on the US economy, Like, it's going pretty 271 00:13:27,640 --> 00:13:30,320 strongly at the moment. So yeah, it looks pretty 272 00:13:30,320 --> 00:13:34,160 positive for them. Yeah, let's talk to UK as well 273 00:13:34,160 --> 00:13:35,560 then. You mentioned it like, I think 274 00:13:35,560 --> 00:13:37,800 because we both live on these shores, probably a little bit 275 00:13:37,800 --> 00:13:39,280 more aware. We're certainly talking about it 276 00:13:39,280 --> 00:13:40,560 a few days ago, weren't we? Yeah. 277 00:13:40,560 --> 00:13:41,360 Exactly. Yeah. 278 00:13:41,360 --> 00:13:44,160 So this is one that I'm sure many people have talked over a 279 00:13:44,160 --> 00:13:47,320 pint at the pub, you know, great British price Curry. 280 00:13:47,320 --> 00:13:50,440 In our case, yeah. Yeah. 281 00:13:50,480 --> 00:13:55,200 So I think, I think you know, the UK and the US are facing 282 00:13:55,200 --> 00:13:58,240 different problems and in the UK really since the end of the 283 00:13:58,240 --> 00:14:03,280 financial crisis back in 2000 and eight 2009 has struggled for 284 00:14:03,280 --> 00:14:06,120 economic growth to really kick on pick up. 285 00:14:06,280 --> 00:14:08,440 We've had a lot of issues around productivity. 286 00:14:08,440 --> 00:14:13,000 And so you know, and that's also been reflected in our fiscal 287 00:14:13,000 --> 00:14:14,600 situation. So that means like government 288 00:14:14,600 --> 00:14:17,720 spending. So we just had a New Labour 289 00:14:17,720 --> 00:14:22,280 government come in replacing 10 plus years of Conservative rule 290 00:14:23,640 --> 00:14:28,760 and one of the big tax rises that occurred during that budget 291 00:14:29,520 --> 00:14:32,440 was the increase in employer contributions for national 292 00:14:32,440 --> 00:14:37,240 income. And I think really this is at 293 00:14:37,240 --> 00:14:40,920 least in the short term having a significant impact on, on 294 00:14:41,720 --> 00:14:45,480 business confidence and then also consumer confidence, yeah. 295 00:14:45,480 --> 00:14:47,320 And I just just add some figures. 296 00:14:47,320 --> 00:14:50,720 I'm going to round these up just because I don't have the actual 297 00:14:50,720 --> 00:14:53,800 numbers to hand, but I posted about this and I've mentioned it 298 00:14:53,800 --> 00:14:56,400 twice in the podcast already. And the British Retail 299 00:14:56,400 --> 00:14:59,440 Consortium, and there'll be a similar set of organisations 300 00:14:59,440 --> 00:15:02,440 probably in the US, but the British Retail Consortium, they 301 00:15:02,480 --> 00:15:05,760 wrote an open letter from, I think it was like the top 100 302 00:15:05,760 --> 00:15:08,640 retailers in terms of turnover. About 60 of them signed it. 303 00:15:08,640 --> 00:15:11,320 To give you an idea of the scope of this thing, there's about 304 00:15:11,320 --> 00:15:12,680 100. I'm, again, I'm going to round 305 00:15:12,680 --> 00:15:15,040 these numbers. It's between sort of 120 to 130 306 00:15:15,040 --> 00:15:19,000 billion circulating every year of money in the retail space. 307 00:15:19,400 --> 00:15:22,640 They're talking that there's something around plastic tax 308 00:15:22,640 --> 00:15:24,880 which they're introducing very quickly and retailers do not 309 00:15:24,880 --> 00:15:28,400 have a chance to adjust to that. I think the number's around 7 310 00:15:28,400 --> 00:15:30,320 billion. You can Google it to see the 311 00:15:30,320 --> 00:15:32,280 report as well. It was very public and the 312 00:15:32,280 --> 00:15:34,520 National Insurance is costing somewhere between I think it's 313 00:15:34,520 --> 00:15:36,000 between sort of seven and 12 billion. 314 00:15:36,000 --> 00:15:40,040 On top of that, when you look at the total 120, two, 130 billion, 315 00:15:40,040 --> 00:15:42,040 I think it was 128 was the exact number. 316 00:15:42,040 --> 00:15:44,280 When you look at the total of that that's suddenly heading to 317 00:15:44,280 --> 00:15:47,200 government pocket. You're like what exactly as you 318 00:15:47,200 --> 00:15:49,400 say, Lawrence about productivity, What's going to 319 00:15:49,400 --> 00:15:51,920 happen to all these jobs? People are going to be let go. 320 00:15:52,320 --> 00:15:55,000 You know, we, we've seen we've seen lots of kind of physical 321 00:15:55,000 --> 00:15:57,680 store companies already that we work with go. 322 00:15:57,680 --> 00:15:59,160 We're going to have to tighten our belts quite. 323 00:15:59,240 --> 00:16:02,000 It's a lot here. And if you look at the increase 324 00:16:02,000 --> 00:16:04,360 in sales just to cover the plastic tax until you can get 325 00:16:04,360 --> 00:16:07,600 plastic out of your organization, it's it's a lot in 326 00:16:07,600 --> 00:16:08,880 one go, isn't it? And again, we're not. 327 00:16:09,200 --> 00:16:11,560 I don't want, I don't want us to start judging or moaning about 328 00:16:11,560 --> 00:16:12,520 it. It is what it is. 329 00:16:13,000 --> 00:16:15,080 People have got to adjust. There's a lot of adjustments to 330 00:16:15,080 --> 00:16:17,200 make to that, I would say, yeah. Definitely. 331 00:16:17,240 --> 00:16:22,000 I think it's pretty unlikely that you'll see businesses just 332 00:16:22,000 --> 00:16:25,120 suck it up and and absorb these, these increase in costs. 333 00:16:25,120 --> 00:16:28,640 It's, it's pretty unrealistic. I think really you're going to 334 00:16:28,640 --> 00:16:32,840 see one of three things or if not a combination of them or 335 00:16:32,840 --> 00:16:35,360 when you kind of touched on them, they're a little bit Nick 336 00:16:35,360 --> 00:16:40,520 and, and 1st would be because of the increase in, in the National 337 00:16:40,520 --> 00:16:45,200 Insurance, you know, the scaling back of new orders or scaling 338 00:16:45,200 --> 00:16:51,400 back of capital investment. Second could be the pausing or 339 00:16:51,480 --> 00:16:55,320 delay of hiring plans. I, I don't think it's so serious 340 00:16:55,320 --> 00:16:59,760 that we'll see, you know, people being cut, but you know, if 341 00:16:59,760 --> 00:17:03,680 someone, if someone leaves your business, you may take longer to 342 00:17:03,680 --> 00:17:06,440 hire rehire or you may choose not to rehire because of the 343 00:17:06,440 --> 00:17:10,319 costs involved. And then finally, a Third Point 344 00:17:10,319 --> 00:17:12,359 also, you know, just passing that cost straight on to the 345 00:17:12,359 --> 00:17:16,880 consumers. So each of these three have have 346 00:17:16,880 --> 00:17:21,319 kind of negative impacts, second round impacts on the economy 347 00:17:21,480 --> 00:17:24,720 with lower productivity or economic growth, you know, the 348 00:17:24,720 --> 00:17:29,520 worsening of consumer confidence and potentially even tick up 349 00:17:29,520 --> 00:17:33,040 again in inflation in the retail sector. 350 00:17:33,560 --> 00:17:38,520 So you know, unfortunately not, not a great situation to be in. 351 00:17:39,640 --> 00:17:42,360 Yeah. I, I agree and I think the, I, I 352 00:17:42,360 --> 00:17:43,960 think you're right, I don't think we're going to see like, 353 00:17:44,120 --> 00:17:46,880 you know, 20% of all staff get let go, certainly not in the 354 00:17:46,880 --> 00:17:50,200 retail space. Some industries we are starting 355 00:17:50,200 --> 00:17:53,280 to see that, you know, we luckily we've got quite a 356 00:17:53,280 --> 00:17:56,480 diverse portfolio clients here at spec my, my main agency. 357 00:17:56,480 --> 00:17:59,480 So we've seen the construction industry are the ones that seem 358 00:17:59,480 --> 00:18:02,560 to be panicking the most. They're all in a massive flux of 359 00:18:02,560 --> 00:18:05,800 like what we're going to do in terms of US brands that we're 360 00:18:05,800 --> 00:18:08,280 working with just to bring the US back into play. 361 00:18:08,680 --> 00:18:12,400 A lot of them are. They're kind of enjoying, as you 362 00:18:12,400 --> 00:18:14,360 said earlier, Lawrence, like they're enjoying this commercial 363 00:18:14,360 --> 00:18:17,000 sort of uplift. I said about some stats from 364 00:18:17,000 --> 00:18:18,680 Shopify. I did a whole episode on this if 365 00:18:18,680 --> 00:18:20,880 you want to go back and check it in December. 366 00:18:21,280 --> 00:18:24,280 I relayed all of Shopify statistics following Black 367 00:18:24,280 --> 00:18:27,720 Friday and it was absolutely mad how much more money was being 368 00:18:27,720 --> 00:18:30,720 made. The UK though, we normally year 369 00:18:30,720 --> 00:18:34,280 on year, we're kind of double digit percentage up on previous 370 00:18:34,280 --> 00:18:37,520 year for Black Friday itself, cyber weekend and peak looking 371 00:18:37,520 --> 00:18:40,200 at kind of, you know, one day, one weekend to the whole whole 372 00:18:40,200 --> 00:18:44,200 kind of two months of of peek into Christmas and we Shopify 373 00:18:44,200 --> 00:18:46,880 itself announced it was single digit figures in the UK this 374 00:18:46,880 --> 00:18:48,040 year. It's bad. 375 00:18:48,240 --> 00:18:50,520 That was really, really bad and especially after such a hard 376 00:18:50,520 --> 00:18:52,640 year. No, actually, Black Friday 377 00:18:52,640 --> 00:18:54,360 itself actually landed quite late in November. 378 00:18:54,520 --> 00:18:56,880 So a lot of businesses were quite worried about that, didn't 379 00:18:56,880 --> 00:18:59,000 have the uptick that hit the US as well, purely just because 380 00:18:59,000 --> 00:19:01,880 where it landed in the calendar. the US though, a lot of our 381 00:19:01,880 --> 00:19:05,160 clients, they do recognise they are sort of riding this wave at 382 00:19:05,160 --> 00:19:07,880 the moment and they are sure there's another side to the wave 383 00:19:07,880 --> 00:19:10,280 where it's going to come down. A lot of them predicting that 384 00:19:10,280 --> 00:19:13,160 until Trump's come in and actually made changes or made 385 00:19:13,160 --> 00:19:15,960 more official announcements of, I'm going to push this through 386 00:19:16,400 --> 00:19:18,880 and I don't fully understand the political system in the US, but 387 00:19:18,880 --> 00:19:21,040 there's still kind of Congress and stuff to approve everything, 388 00:19:21,040 --> 00:20:08,760 isn't there? It's going to be a bit of a 389 00:20:08,760 --> 00:20:10,080 journey. And I think a lot of our clients 390 00:20:10,080 --> 00:20:12,280 in the US are saying like actually we, we're riding this 391 00:20:12,280 --> 00:20:13,880 wave now. So actually we're a lot of them 392 00:20:13,880 --> 00:20:17,080 are overspending on advertising and things right now here in 393 00:20:17,080 --> 00:20:18,840 kind of January. And so I'm recording this. 394 00:20:18,840 --> 00:20:21,200 It's going to be interesting to see where that changes. 395 00:20:22,040 --> 00:20:25,200 But it's, I think that there's a lot of challenges, but actually 396 00:20:25,200 --> 00:20:26,680 I would say there's some good opportunities. 397 00:20:27,440 --> 00:20:29,680 And I think even with like there's a few businesses in the 398 00:20:29,680 --> 00:20:32,240 UK and I'm aware of a few major retailers in the US in 399 00:20:32,240 --> 00:20:35,240 administration at the moment as in heading towards closing down. 400 00:20:35,560 --> 00:20:37,440 The famous one in the UK that I'm really glad about is home 401 00:20:37,440 --> 00:20:39,280 base. I love home base as a consumer. 402 00:20:39,560 --> 00:20:42,000 They've got everything there. It's always really well priced. 403 00:20:42,000 --> 00:20:44,120 The stores are never like the cleanest environment, but the 404 00:20:44,120 --> 00:20:46,880 products are great, generally last very well and all the staff 405 00:20:46,880 --> 00:20:48,760 are friendly. They're going under at the 406 00:20:48,760 --> 00:20:50,320 moment. That one of a lot of businesses 407 00:20:50,320 --> 00:20:53,880 that are at the same time, if you're able to ride this wave at 408 00:20:53,880 --> 00:20:56,120 the moment, there are potentially some really good 409 00:20:56,120 --> 00:20:58,160 opportunities to pick up good staff. 410 00:20:58,560 --> 00:21:01,720 Every time a company disappears, there will be a wave of 411 00:21:01,720 --> 00:21:03,680 customers that are no longer buying from them. 412 00:21:03,720 --> 00:21:06,000 And bearing in mind Homebase, I don't know the figure, but they 413 00:21:06,000 --> 00:21:09,200 must be doing millions, if not heading towards a billion in 414 00:21:09,200 --> 00:21:11,160 turnover every year. They have a huge retailer here 415 00:21:11,160 --> 00:21:13,880 in the UK, so actually there's an opportunity to pick up some 416 00:21:13,880 --> 00:21:16,360 of those customers. And one of the things just going 417 00:21:16,360 --> 00:21:19,000 from kind of, we're talking macro, global political level, 418 00:21:19,240 --> 00:21:23,440 going right down to micro. If you're in the UK or you're in 419 00:21:23,440 --> 00:21:26,160 the US and similar businesses going under to yours right now, 420 00:21:26,400 --> 00:21:28,720 you can literally just target their keyword and Google ads. 421 00:21:28,760 --> 00:21:30,800 You're not allowed to put a trademark term in the advert 422 00:21:30,800 --> 00:21:33,520 itself, but almost everybody does compare what's called 423 00:21:33,520 --> 00:21:36,120 competitor advertising. And there's a great opportunity 424 00:21:36,120 --> 00:21:38,840 to anything that people loved about that brand, put that in 425 00:21:38,840 --> 00:21:42,040 your advert and say, we also offer this loyalty program, we 426 00:21:42,040 --> 00:21:43,800 also sell this product. We have the same warranty 427 00:21:43,800 --> 00:21:45,520 guarantee. There's always opportunities 428 00:21:45,520 --> 00:21:47,560 that start to come out of this, but I always think it takes a 429 00:21:47,560 --> 00:21:50,840 bit of lateral thinking. So I would certainly keep an eye 430 00:21:50,840 --> 00:21:53,480 out as to what business is doing well, which ones are struggling. 431 00:21:53,920 --> 00:21:56,040 And actually, I, I've never really kept up massively on 432 00:21:56,040 --> 00:22:00,520 reports of like, you know, the FTSE 100 or the NASDAQ and, and 433 00:22:00,520 --> 00:22:03,520 all the other financial markets. Now is probably a good time to 434 00:22:03,520 --> 00:22:05,800 see who's kind of growing and who's sliding in those. 435 00:22:06,080 --> 00:22:08,960 And that might change decisions on how much you invest in 436 00:22:08,960 --> 00:22:11,760 marketing, when you invest in marketing and what you do. 437 00:22:11,760 --> 00:22:13,280 I don't know if you've got any thoughts on this at all, 438 00:22:13,280 --> 00:22:15,280 Lawrence. I know you kind of look at how 439 00:22:15,280 --> 00:22:17,640 markets are moving, but yeah, be good to get your thoughts on it. 440 00:22:18,280 --> 00:22:20,920 Yeah, I mean. Absolutely the the, the data 441 00:22:20,920 --> 00:22:24,640 that the markets use to understand if you know retail is 442 00:22:24,640 --> 00:22:27,600 doing well or not, the same data you can access. 443 00:22:27,720 --> 00:22:32,080 You know, a lot of a lot of the information they're consuming 444 00:22:32,080 --> 00:22:34,640 and like thinking about are like, as you were saying, like 445 00:22:34,720 --> 00:22:38,600 maybe competitors looking at how they're, if they're publicly 446 00:22:38,600 --> 00:22:42,200 listed, like how their balance sheets look, how their outlook 447 00:22:42,360 --> 00:22:44,680 is, you know, does it look good or bad? 448 00:22:45,240 --> 00:22:47,960 And then there's also the economic data as well, like all 449 00:22:47,960 --> 00:22:52,880 of that's readily accessible from kind of statistic offices, 450 00:22:53,320 --> 00:22:57,680 websites, as well as, you know, vendors like Bloomberg. 451 00:22:59,400 --> 00:23:02,200 You can look at retail sales data and look at how that's 452 00:23:02,200 --> 00:23:06,320 broken down by, you know, which part of the industry. 453 00:23:06,560 --> 00:23:10,680 So if it's automotive bit like car sales, for example, is it 454 00:23:10,720 --> 00:23:13,760 online sales that are doing well, you can break it down, you 455 00:23:13,760 --> 00:23:17,760 can have a look at those trends. So there definitely are 456 00:23:17,760 --> 00:23:20,120 opportunities out there. And I think behind every 457 00:23:20,120 --> 00:23:22,400 headline number, there's an opportunity also, as you say, 458 00:23:22,400 --> 00:23:26,760 Nick, to dig down more micro and kind of experience and look at 459 00:23:26,760 --> 00:23:30,840 the experiences of people in your, your specialisms. 460 00:23:32,600 --> 00:23:35,400 One, one of the things I picked out when I was kind of prepping 461 00:23:35,400 --> 00:23:38,560 ahead of this was I was looking at UK consumer confidence. 462 00:23:38,560 --> 00:23:41,080 And we're saying it's not, you know, it's not doing so well. 463 00:23:41,880 --> 00:23:43,440 And there are, there are reasons for that. 464 00:23:43,440 --> 00:23:46,960 But like when you break that down and you start to look at, 465 00:23:48,560 --> 00:23:54,040 you know, consumer confidence by household income, I actually 466 00:23:54,040 --> 00:23:58,960 found a really interesting story where people earning over 50,000 467 00:23:58,960 --> 00:24:01,720 lbs a year are back in positive territory. 468 00:24:01,720 --> 00:24:04,960 They feeling good about the economy, they're feeling good 469 00:24:04,960 --> 00:24:09,760 about consuming, but they're the only category that there are. 470 00:24:10,240 --> 00:24:13,680 So, you know, is there an opportunity to find these sort 471 00:24:13,680 --> 00:24:15,360 of stories behind the headline numbers? 472 00:24:15,560 --> 00:24:20,560 Maybe your higher end spenders have more capability to to, you 473 00:24:20,560 --> 00:24:23,280 know, continue to spend while others may not. 474 00:24:23,680 --> 00:24:27,960 So it's well worth digging in. I hope that's helpful. 475 00:24:28,920 --> 00:24:31,920 It, it is, it is actually, and I've shared this a few times in 476 00:24:31,920 --> 00:24:34,200 the last few kind of sort of three or four months. 477 00:24:35,160 --> 00:24:38,080 We, we work with a lot of retailers and we've also asked a 478 00:24:38,080 --> 00:24:41,440 lot of other agencies that we know can, we have some 479 00:24:41,440 --> 00:24:44,280 anonymized data and it's, they're simple questions, but 480 00:24:44,280 --> 00:24:45,840 there's definitely some trends coming out. 481 00:24:46,480 --> 00:24:50,040 One is 1 is I asked, I asked about 20 agencies and said, and 482 00:24:50,040 --> 00:24:53,000 some of them do marketing like I do, some of them build websites, 483 00:24:53,000 --> 00:24:54,840 some of them do PR social, etcetera. 484 00:24:55,560 --> 00:24:57,440 And I said to them, if you can put all your customers in 485 00:24:57,440 --> 00:25:00,600 buckets based on the product they sell, are they kind of top 486 00:25:00,600 --> 00:25:03,160 end of market? Are they middle market or are 487 00:25:03,160 --> 00:25:05,080 they like trying to be the cheapest? 488 00:25:05,360 --> 00:25:08,680 Like every penny they can increase their price by without 489 00:25:08,680 --> 00:25:11,160 losing customers is a success. So it's like we're going to be 490 00:25:11,160 --> 00:25:13,240 as low as possible while still just kind of skimming through. 491 00:25:13,240 --> 00:25:17,680 So low profit, high volume or high, high profit and kind of 492 00:25:17,680 --> 00:25:20,720 low to medium volume. And what was interesting is 493 00:25:20,720 --> 00:25:23,800 exactly as you say, the luxury, the more luxury items, the high 494 00:25:23,800 --> 00:25:26,760 end items, the more expensive items, a lot of them were seeing 495 00:25:26,760 --> 00:25:29,480 an increase. So when they say like a total 496 00:25:29,480 --> 00:25:32,640 revenue in retail is dropping, it's like it's dropping in the 497 00:25:32,640 --> 00:25:34,680 middle market. And that's been the interesting 498 00:25:34,680 --> 00:25:36,080 thing. So middle market splitting, it's 499 00:25:36,080 --> 00:25:39,200 either going, I'm actually doing quite well here and I'll give 500 00:25:39,200 --> 00:25:42,200 you an example where I think the middle markets doing well is if 501 00:25:42,200 --> 00:25:45,680 you own an asset like an ISA or an investment account or 502 00:25:45,680 --> 00:25:49,280 properties, you tend to be making a bit more money out of 503 00:25:49,280 --> 00:25:51,160 this. And particular video you sent me 504 00:25:51,160 --> 00:25:53,600 as well to watch, Lawrence, which I found fascinating was 505 00:25:53,600 --> 00:25:56,960 talking exactly about this. You tend to be making a bit more 506 00:25:56,960 --> 00:25:59,760 money if you have assets, which means you're going from middle 507 00:25:59,760 --> 00:26:02,320 market now to high end and high ends doing well. 508 00:26:02,560 --> 00:26:04,800 But that means the middle market products have just lost a bit of 509 00:26:04,800 --> 00:26:07,360 their audience. The other side of middle market 510 00:26:07,360 --> 00:26:11,160 and maybe that kind of that 50 to 80,000 a year income in the 511 00:26:11,160 --> 00:26:13,640 UK is that is that middle bit they're moving down to the 512 00:26:13,640 --> 00:26:15,600 cheaper end going, I need to save some money, I need to 513 00:26:15,600 --> 00:26:18,400 economize here. The middle markets just been 514 00:26:18,400 --> 00:26:21,560 slapped in the face in the UK and then it's it's not totally 515 00:26:21,560 --> 00:26:24,280 dissimilar we've seen in US clients as well, which has been 516 00:26:24,280 --> 00:26:25,640 really interesting I think. Yeah, I think. 517 00:26:25,640 --> 00:26:28,040 A lot of that is probably going to be, you know, the experience 518 00:26:28,040 --> 00:26:32,560 of the last few years after the the pandemic, both US and UK 519 00:26:32,560 --> 00:26:36,920 governments spent a lot of money putting money in the hands of 520 00:26:36,920 --> 00:26:39,440 people who were out of work. So we have like the furlough 521 00:26:39,440 --> 00:26:43,800 scheme here in the UK that paid 80% of your salary in the US, 522 00:26:43,800 --> 00:26:47,520 They also were given a lot of handouts and those things were 523 00:26:47,520 --> 00:26:50,480 necessary. But the consequence of that and, 524 00:26:50,560 --> 00:26:54,160 you know, the disrupted supply chains and also, you know, the 525 00:26:54,160 --> 00:26:59,320 war in in Ukraine really served to push inflation really high, 526 00:26:59,320 --> 00:27:01,680 something we hadn't seen for for decades. 527 00:27:02,960 --> 00:27:06,000 And unfortunately, when you have such high inflation, that erodes 528 00:27:06,000 --> 00:27:08,000 away what what we call real income. 529 00:27:08,000 --> 00:27:12,560 So if you have 100 lbs today and inflation is really high, you're 530 00:27:12,560 --> 00:27:15,520 that 100 LB is not going to go as far in a year's time. 531 00:27:15,520 --> 00:27:19,560 And I think what you're saying about that middle kind of income 532 00:27:20,200 --> 00:27:23,440 or middle market is that, you know, a lot of that disposable 533 00:27:23,440 --> 00:27:26,640 income was eroded away by inflation. 534 00:27:26,680 --> 00:27:30,160 And only at least in the UK in the last six months or so, as 535 00:27:30,160 --> 00:27:33,520 we've seen inflation come back down towards kind of like 2%, 536 00:27:33,520 --> 00:27:35,120 which is the central bank target. 537 00:27:35,960 --> 00:27:40,920 Have real incomes grown. But consumers are still very 538 00:27:41,000 --> 00:27:45,160 kind of hesitant, I think based on that experience to to spend 539 00:27:45,160 --> 00:27:49,000 big definitely, especially when the uncertainty around the 540 00:27:49,000 --> 00:27:53,640 economy is, is higher. Yeah, yeah, I think and the 541 00:27:53,640 --> 00:27:56,800 thing with inflation that if if anyone's hearing some of these 542 00:27:56,800 --> 00:27:58,920 words like inflation and stuff are going, I hear it on the 543 00:27:58,920 --> 00:27:59,800 news. Never really looked at it. 544 00:28:00,160 --> 00:28:04,080 The thing that amazes me about inflation is like, and someone 545 00:28:04,080 --> 00:28:06,520 said this to me a few months ago and I'll I'll tell you after 546 00:28:06,520 --> 00:28:07,960 we've recorded Lawrence because you'll know who they are. 547 00:28:08,520 --> 00:28:11,160 But someone says to me a few months ago, it's like inflation 548 00:28:11,160 --> 00:28:12,440 is coming down great. Everything's going to get 549 00:28:12,440 --> 00:28:14,200 cheaper. I'm like, no, no, everything is 550 00:28:14,200 --> 00:28:16,640 still getting more expensive. Just it's not going up like that 551 00:28:16,640 --> 00:28:18,840 anymore. It's going like kind of it's 552 00:28:18,840 --> 00:28:22,040 only gone up 1% instead of 3%. That's that's why, you know, 553 00:28:22,040 --> 00:28:24,280 it's like the it's always going to increase. 554 00:28:24,280 --> 00:28:27,360 I mean, not necessarily it's not guaranteed to, but tradition of 555 00:28:27,360 --> 00:28:30,440 history, it's always going up. That's why you hear stories that 556 00:28:30,440 --> 00:28:33,120 like Nan and granddad bought their house for a pound and 557 00:28:33,120 --> 00:28:35,240 you're like, what where can I get a house for a pound? 558 00:28:35,240 --> 00:28:39,760 I'll buy 10, you know, like 1000 say like it's the same item, but 559 00:28:39,760 --> 00:28:42,240 the yeah, money as exactly as you say Lawrence money's worth 560 00:28:42,240 --> 00:28:45,960 less. I think from a business, retail 561 00:28:45,960 --> 00:28:49,040 e-commerce point of view, guys, I would say all of you need to 562 00:28:49,040 --> 00:28:51,880 really look at that middle market and go, are we going to 563 00:28:51,880 --> 00:28:55,000 survive in this middle market? Should we actually try and 564 00:28:55,000 --> 00:28:57,720 economize our supply chains to make our products cheaper to and 565 00:28:57,720 --> 00:29:00,880 then use that as marketing leverage go, it's still the same 566 00:29:00,880 --> 00:29:03,120 80 LB product. We're selling it at 60 now and 567 00:29:03,400 --> 00:29:05,640 that becomes a marketing something consumers can buy into 568 00:29:06,360 --> 00:29:10,200 or actually, and I've shared this very simple sum 1000 times 569 00:29:10,200 --> 00:29:12,800 in the show and I'm just using this hypothetically, don't 570 00:29:12,800 --> 00:29:15,160 actually do this. In fact, one client we did do 571 00:29:15,160 --> 00:29:17,280 this actually. And you double all your prices. 572 00:29:17,680 --> 00:29:20,840 And if you lose less than 50% of your sales, your quids in. 573 00:29:21,160 --> 00:29:24,680 In fact, even if you lost 5560% because you're now shipping out 574 00:29:24,680 --> 00:29:28,080 less products, you're getting more or the same cash as long as 575 00:29:28,080 --> 00:29:29,760 you lose less than half your sales. 576 00:29:30,120 --> 00:29:33,600 So if you sold 100 of them at 10 lbs each, that's 1000 lbs. 577 00:29:33,920 --> 00:29:37,040 If you make them 20 lbs each and only sell 500 of them, you've 578 00:29:37,040 --> 00:29:39,240 still made 1000 and you've only shipped half the amount of 579 00:29:39,240 --> 00:29:41,360 products as well. So if you're for free delivery, 580 00:29:41,640 --> 00:29:44,400 you've just saved half your delivery cost whilst making the 581 00:29:44,400 --> 00:29:47,360 same money. Now, where this really worked is 582 00:29:47,360 --> 00:29:49,480 we had a client that was like, no one's buying a product and 583 00:29:49,480 --> 00:29:51,280 they're making it a bit cheaper, bit cheaper, bit cheaper, bit 584 00:29:51,280 --> 00:29:52,800 cheaper. We made them more expensive and 585 00:29:52,800 --> 00:29:54,880 we changed the background color on their website. 586 00:29:54,880 --> 00:29:56,320 It's a little bit more complicated, but we made it 587 00:29:56,320 --> 00:29:58,840 purple. That was a really rich expensive 588 00:29:58,840 --> 00:30:02,440 color and suddenly it took two or three weeks, but suddenly 589 00:30:02,440 --> 00:30:05,000 we're attracting a very different type of customer who 590 00:30:05,000 --> 00:30:07,880 were like, this is cheap because it's there is no such thing. 591 00:30:07,880 --> 00:30:10,160 And I guess this is a really important part and what you 592 00:30:10,280 --> 00:30:12,200 comes back to what you say, Lawrence, about consumer 593 00:30:12,200 --> 00:30:14,160 confidence. There's no such thing as 594 00:30:14,160 --> 00:30:16,120 expensive and cheap. It's value. 595 00:30:16,200 --> 00:30:18,680 It's is it, what is this person that you're targeting and 596 00:30:18,680 --> 00:30:20,480 they're and it's coming onto your website that you're 597 00:30:20,480 --> 00:30:22,160 targeting your marketing. What do they perceive as the 598 00:30:22,160 --> 00:30:24,280 value? And if they perceive the value 599 00:30:24,280 --> 00:30:28,640 to be 20 lbs instead of 10 or 200 lbs instead of 100, then 600 00:30:28,640 --> 00:30:31,440 great, then sell to that market, which means you can add a bit 601 00:30:31,440 --> 00:30:34,360 more to them. But I think so many retailers 602 00:30:34,600 --> 00:30:36,480 base their pricing and this is a bit of an issue. 603 00:30:36,480 --> 00:30:39,680 I think maybe we should get a pricing person on the show at 604 00:30:39,680 --> 00:30:41,240 some point. But they base their pricing on 605 00:30:41,240 --> 00:30:44,720 going well that costs us $10 and we need to run all our business 606 00:30:44,720 --> 00:30:46,840 stuff. So it's going to $25 is like 607 00:30:46,880 --> 00:30:50,920 that is break even point. So we'll charge 35 when actually 608 00:30:50,920 --> 00:30:52,160 they could be charged in a hundreds. 609 00:30:52,680 --> 00:30:56,280 And I think until you test it and there are apps in Shopify 610 00:30:56,280 --> 00:30:59,320 you guys can use that will run multiple prices for the same 611 00:30:59,320 --> 00:31:02,120 product and feedback to you, these are where you should take 612 00:31:02,120 --> 00:31:04,360 your prices. You actually you sell slightly 613 00:31:04,360 --> 00:31:07,160 more at a higher price. Imagine that you get more sales 614 00:31:07,400 --> 00:31:09,800 at a higher price because perceived values changed. 615 00:31:10,160 --> 00:31:11,720 It's all part of marketing. How do you position that 616 00:31:11,720 --> 00:31:14,560 product? And this is where I guess really 617 00:31:14,560 --> 00:31:17,440 hard for governments and economists and stuff, isn't it, 618 00:31:17,440 --> 00:31:20,920 Lawrence to go, we can't really like it's hard to predict where 619 00:31:20,920 --> 00:31:24,000 people innovate and pioneer things because there's no data. 620 00:31:24,000 --> 00:31:26,200 You're almost like you're kind of following the trends, then 621 00:31:26,200 --> 00:31:28,880 work out what we should do next. Whereas there's occasionally 622 00:31:28,880 --> 00:31:31,200 there's that kind of like disruptor that comes into the 623 00:31:31,200 --> 00:31:32,560 market and just changes everything. 624 00:31:33,480 --> 00:31:35,480 Yeah, absolutely. You, you really took me back to 625 00:31:35,480 --> 00:31:39,400 my A level economics there, like what you just described is, is 626 00:31:39,400 --> 00:31:42,640 what an economist would call the price elasticity of demand. 627 00:31:42,640 --> 00:31:44,920 But I won't bore. I won't bore everyone. 628 00:31:44,920 --> 00:31:46,520 I didn't even know that. Was great there. 629 00:31:47,640 --> 00:31:49,680 We go but in terms of innovation, you know, I'm not a 630 00:31:49,680 --> 00:31:53,240 specialist in that area, but there there are so many 631 00:31:53,280 --> 00:31:59,200 opportunities, you know, and you just have to look back over 632 00:31:59,200 --> 00:32:04,320 decades about how we've always stepped forward in society. 633 00:32:04,760 --> 00:32:07,520 You know, you can think of the early 2000s with the IT 634 00:32:07,520 --> 00:32:11,640 revolution go all the way back to Henry Ford and the way that 635 00:32:11,640 --> 00:32:14,440 he, you know, revolutionized how how we make cars. 636 00:32:15,800 --> 00:32:20,720 There are opportunities and I think buzzword of AI is going to 637 00:32:20,720 --> 00:32:24,720 be one of those, but you know, and and governments are kind of 638 00:32:24,720 --> 00:32:26,880 scrambling to try and encourage that. 639 00:32:28,600 --> 00:32:32,560 But you know, I think there are some really good opportunities. 640 00:32:32,560 --> 00:32:34,880 You should know your market. If there's something you're 641 00:32:34,880 --> 00:32:38,680 interested in and passionate about and see an opportunity for 642 00:32:39,080 --> 00:32:42,920 you, you know, push for it because there's always an 643 00:32:42,920 --> 00:32:46,120 opportunity to go further and do better, I think, yeah. 644 00:32:46,120 --> 00:32:47,920 Absolutely, absolutely. I I agree. 645 00:32:47,920 --> 00:32:50,880 And I think the only businesses that really make it are the ones 646 00:32:50,880 --> 00:32:54,840 that are kind of brave enough, I would say to take a big risk. 647 00:32:55,280 --> 00:32:58,160 But even the word risk I use really lightly because quite 648 00:32:58,160 --> 00:33:00,160 often it's quite calculated. It's going right. 649 00:33:00,160 --> 00:33:04,280 Every single customer is saying like, I would pay more if well, 650 00:33:04,280 --> 00:33:06,800 you need to make the if happen like that is it's money just 651 00:33:06,800 --> 00:33:09,520 sitting there. One of the biggest things we, we 652 00:33:09,520 --> 00:33:11,080 talk a lot about this as well, guys. 653 00:33:11,080 --> 00:33:12,480 And then I've got another question for you, Lawrence, 654 00:33:12,480 --> 00:33:14,520 about this year, because I think there's a lot coming up here. 655 00:33:15,160 --> 00:33:18,080 But just just to add one more thing, guys, as well as it costs 656 00:33:18,080 --> 00:33:21,040 so much money to pay Google, Facebook, TikTok, whatever 657 00:33:21,040 --> 00:33:23,840 channels you're using to acquire customers as marketing 658 00:33:23,840 --> 00:33:25,280 campaigns. It costs so much to get them. 659 00:33:25,320 --> 00:33:27,840 And as someone who works in advertising and marketing, it's 660 00:33:27,840 --> 00:33:29,440 great. But actually, if you can get a 661 00:33:29,440 --> 00:33:32,160 second, third, 4th order from your customers through like 662 00:33:32,480 --> 00:33:35,360 putting something in their delivery slip, giving them a 663 00:33:35,360 --> 00:33:37,320 free product when they order, so they try something more 664 00:33:37,320 --> 00:33:39,680 expensive, more premium, and they then want to come back and 665 00:33:39,680 --> 00:33:43,960 buy later. e-mail campaigns, social campaigns, SMS, once 666 00:33:43,960 --> 00:33:46,720 you've got someone in as a customer, I think a lot of 667 00:33:46,720 --> 00:33:48,680 retailers I've certainly seen in the last couple of years are 668 00:33:48,680 --> 00:33:52,720 doing nowhere near enough to nurture existing customers into 669 00:33:52,720 --> 00:33:54,960 next order. They already know who you are. 670 00:33:54,960 --> 00:33:57,000 Loads of their barriers are already broken down. 671 00:33:57,240 --> 00:33:59,920 So look at how do we make that first order experience as 672 00:33:59,920 --> 00:34:02,920 incredible as possible so that they just come back. 673 00:34:02,920 --> 00:34:04,960 And one of the examples when you were talking a second Lawrence 674 00:34:05,040 --> 00:34:07,800 just popped my mind was Apple. If you told me I'd be spending a 675 00:34:07,880 --> 00:34:11,719 1000 lbs on a phone when I used to have like a Nokia 3310, that 676 00:34:11,719 --> 00:34:14,679 even back then cost what 3040 lbs felt like a lot when I was a 677 00:34:14,679 --> 00:34:16,840 teenager. But even thinking like, am I 678 00:34:16,840 --> 00:34:18,679 going to spend 1000 lbs on a phone? 679 00:34:18,719 --> 00:34:20,920 Well, that's like the norm now. Everyone's buying a phone for 680 00:34:20,920 --> 00:34:24,280 £1000 because the perceived value and the quality of phones 681 00:34:24,280 --> 00:34:26,639 stuff, it's all there. So I think there are good 682 00:34:26,639 --> 00:34:29,120 opportunities to do that. And I'm just always hesitant 683 00:34:29,199 --> 00:34:31,199 when businesses start going, we're going to cut prices. 684 00:34:31,199 --> 00:34:32,440 I'm like, no, no, no, don't do that yet. 685 00:34:32,480 --> 00:34:34,639 Let's, let's try and do the value piece first because it's 686 00:34:34,800 --> 00:34:37,120 going to make you way more profit, which is going to kind 687 00:34:37,120 --> 00:34:39,440 of bypass all the things we've spoken about, all the gloomy 688 00:34:39,440 --> 00:34:42,800 things like taxes going up, tariffs, etcetera, etcetera. 689 00:34:43,520 --> 00:34:46,960 But Lawrence, it's 2025. I can't quite believe it. 690 00:34:46,960 --> 00:34:49,800 It still feels like 2000 to me. It doesn't really, guys, I'm 691 00:34:49,800 --> 00:34:53,320 well up with the times, but looking at 2025, are there any 692 00:34:53,320 --> 00:34:57,120 key dates that in the UK, US or any other economies globally, 693 00:34:57,120 --> 00:34:58,400 are there any key dates coming up this year? 694 00:34:58,400 --> 00:35:01,680 Any key things that you think people need to really keep their 695 00:35:01,680 --> 00:35:05,000 eye on and be aware of and and again, could either create kind 696 00:35:05,000 --> 00:35:07,560 of problems or opportunities depending on how they go into 697 00:35:07,560 --> 00:35:09,640 that. It's really interesting, one, 698 00:35:09,640 --> 00:35:12,440 because if you asked me this question at the start of 2024, I 699 00:35:12,440 --> 00:35:17,280 would have said yes, definitely. 2024 was the year of elections 700 00:35:17,440 --> 00:35:20,080 across the globe. There was something like 50% of 701 00:35:20,080 --> 00:35:23,760 the world's GDP that was mostly driven by the US. 702 00:35:23,760 --> 00:35:25,760 Yeah. Like they had elections in those 703 00:35:25,760 --> 00:35:30,640 countries this year. I think it's the consequences of 704 00:35:30,640 --> 00:35:32,880 those elections. So we've talked about Donald 705 00:35:32,880 --> 00:35:36,480 Trump, we've talked about the Labour Party here in the UK, but 706 00:35:36,480 --> 00:35:41,200 also, you know, so it's there aren't as many dates lines in 707 00:35:41,200 --> 00:35:43,840 the sand. But I think you need to be aware 708 00:35:43,840 --> 00:35:46,280 of what policies they're putting forward. 709 00:35:46,440 --> 00:35:49,560 Keep your ear to the ground in, you know, the the markets that 710 00:35:49,560 --> 00:35:53,000 you work in to understand what changes are happening because I 711 00:35:53,000 --> 00:35:55,200 think this will be the year where those changes are 712 00:35:55,200 --> 00:35:58,360 implemented. Last year was the year of dates 713 00:35:58,360 --> 00:36:01,800 and elections. This year we'll we'll see those 714 00:36:01,800 --> 00:36:05,080 changes. I think also just just to say, 715 00:36:05,080 --> 00:36:07,440 if you want to think about looking forward, there are lots 716 00:36:07,440 --> 00:36:10,880 of resources out there in terms of kind of thinking about 717 00:36:10,880 --> 00:36:14,760 outlooks and what, what is coming ahead for the year to 718 00:36:14,800 --> 00:36:18,440 kind of international organizations that you could, 719 00:36:18,560 --> 00:36:23,360 you could look at like the IMF or the OECD and they, they put 720 00:36:23,360 --> 00:36:26,400 out forecasts for the year ahead. 721 00:36:26,840 --> 00:36:29,120 And, and they break that down by different, you know, countries 722 00:36:29,120 --> 00:36:34,040 and markets as well. So I think, you know, generally 723 00:36:34,040 --> 00:36:37,160 speaking, this year, the global economy, we're going to see 724 00:36:37,160 --> 00:36:42,280 inflation come back down, settle closer to target. 725 00:36:42,280 --> 00:36:43,800 We're not talking about 10% anymore. 726 00:36:43,800 --> 00:36:49,520 We're talking like two to three, maybe 4% and hopefully stronger 727 00:36:49,520 --> 00:36:53,000 economic growth. There are always going to be 728 00:36:53,000 --> 00:36:55,960 challenges, there are always going to be uncertainties, but 729 00:36:55,960 --> 00:36:58,840 being prepared and, you know, looking for the opportunities 730 00:36:58,840 --> 00:37:02,120 you were discussing Nick, is a fantastic way to embrace that as 731 00:37:02,120 --> 00:37:04,160 a business, I think. Yeah, yeah. 732 00:37:04,160 --> 00:37:06,200 And again, for anyone that's like not clued up on stuff, 733 00:37:06,200 --> 00:37:08,280 they're like, Nick, I love this because I listen to like the 734 00:37:08,280 --> 00:37:10,360 coolest Shopify apps or like, how did Gym Shark grow? 735 00:37:10,360 --> 00:37:14,280 And when you say like, you know, 2% instead of 10%, is that a by 736 00:37:14,280 --> 00:37:16,720 month, quarter year? Like what kind of time frame is 737 00:37:16,720 --> 00:37:17,600 that? Yeah, over. 738 00:37:17,600 --> 00:37:21,080 The years so like when when I talk about inflation, we talk 739 00:37:21,080 --> 00:37:25,320 about consumer prices. So measuring the prices of like 740 00:37:25,320 --> 00:37:27,240 a typical basket, if you were going to go around the 741 00:37:27,240 --> 00:37:29,960 supermarket and buy your food for the week, what would 742 00:37:29,960 --> 00:37:34,440 typically be in your basket? And looking at how those prices 743 00:37:34,440 --> 00:37:40,000 have changed over over one year. So in January 2024, what were 744 00:37:40,000 --> 00:37:42,080 the prices of, you know, on orange? 745 00:37:42,080 --> 00:37:45,040 Back then, maybe it was 50 P and today maybe it's 60P. 746 00:37:45,040 --> 00:37:47,120 So that's how we calculate inflation. 747 00:37:47,800 --> 00:37:50,320 Yeah, yeah. There's a news outlet, LBC 748 00:37:50,720 --> 00:37:53,600 leading Britain's conversation. It stands for This is a radio 749 00:37:53,600 --> 00:37:54,920 show. Listen up online. 750 00:37:55,280 --> 00:37:58,240 And they're fascinating in the way that they, they approached 751 00:37:58,240 --> 00:38:01,160 inflation when it was crazy, were crazy high because every 752 00:38:01,160 --> 00:38:03,240 week they were going to supermarket buying the same 5 753 00:38:03,240 --> 00:38:06,960 items that was like a block of cheese, some milk, a pint of 754 00:38:06,960 --> 00:38:09,080 milk, a loaf of breads. And there were like two or three 755 00:38:09,080 --> 00:38:10,560 other things. But they basically had this 756 00:38:10,560 --> 00:38:13,360 basket every week to say like that's just got 12P more 757 00:38:13,360 --> 00:38:16,200 expensive in the last month or and it was quite interesting. 758 00:38:16,200 --> 00:38:19,280 I think just looking at those things again, coming back to 759 00:38:19,280 --> 00:38:22,920 pricing, everyone have a think about, I get like one of our 760 00:38:22,920 --> 00:38:24,640 clients looks at it this way, which I think, I think it's 761 00:38:24,640 --> 00:38:26,080 quite smart. It doesn't, it wouldn't work for 762 00:38:26,080 --> 00:38:27,760 every business. But every time they look at 763 00:38:27,760 --> 00:38:29,640 inflation, they go right, We think it's going to be two or 764 00:38:29,640 --> 00:38:31,800 three percent this year. So let's assume 5, we'll take a 765 00:38:31,800 --> 00:38:33,880 really conservative approach. It's going to go up by 5. 766 00:38:34,560 --> 00:38:38,640 How are we going to increase our prices by 5% and how are we 767 00:38:38,640 --> 00:38:40,360 going to communicate that to customers? 768 00:38:40,360 --> 00:38:43,360 Or are we going to say nothing? Actually, what you don't want to 769 00:38:43,360 --> 00:38:46,200 do is get into position where if you do nothing, your margins 770 00:38:46,200 --> 00:38:48,240 just get shrunk, shrunk, shrunk, shrunk, and then you're forced 771 00:38:48,240 --> 00:38:49,920 to act and you're forced to act way more. 772 00:38:50,480 --> 00:38:53,000 And actually, I think having a strategy for that of like we're 773 00:38:53,000 --> 00:38:55,640 going to, if it's going to be 5% across the year, we're going to 774 00:38:55,640 --> 00:38:58,600 increase our prices by 1% every two months. 775 00:38:59,000 --> 00:39:00,800 And we're just going to do that. We're just going to do that. 776 00:39:00,800 --> 00:39:03,040 We're just going to do that, but we're going to do it as a test. 777 00:39:03,040 --> 00:39:05,520 So like half our audience will see the normal price, half will 778 00:39:05,520 --> 00:39:07,000 see the new price. We see no difference. 779 00:39:07,200 --> 00:39:08,760 Great. We can nudge it up by that much. 780 00:39:08,760 --> 00:39:11,480 As soon as we see the first comment on our review platform, 781 00:39:11,480 --> 00:39:14,280 social media telling us, Oh my gosh, their prices keep nudging 782 00:39:14,280 --> 00:39:15,720 up, right? Maybe we do need to communicate 783 00:39:15,720 --> 00:39:17,640 something and just explain why they're going up. 784 00:39:18,440 --> 00:39:21,240 I think it's the worst thing for any buyer whether you're a 785 00:39:21,240 --> 00:39:24,640 service product to here is like our price is going up 10% and 786 00:39:24,640 --> 00:39:26,040 you're not getting anything else for that. 787 00:39:26,680 --> 00:39:28,920 Equally, it's hard as a service based business when we put our 788 00:39:28,920 --> 00:39:32,200 prices up, it's hard to say to our clients like, well, we just 789 00:39:32,200 --> 00:39:33,600 need to do that to pay the bills. 790 00:39:33,800 --> 00:39:36,800 It just unnecessarily puts us under the microscope and they 791 00:39:36,800 --> 00:39:38,720 might start looking at alternatives, which is something 792 00:39:38,720 --> 00:39:41,240 we can avoid if we communicate it better than that. 793 00:39:41,400 --> 00:39:44,440 And Lawrence, finally, when I asked you to come on, you said 794 00:39:44,440 --> 00:39:46,280 to me, Nick, there's an awesome report. 795 00:39:46,280 --> 00:39:47,440 I'm going to look at this report. 796 00:39:48,040 --> 00:39:50,680 Is it a public available report? Can people go and download it? 797 00:39:50,680 --> 00:39:52,440 Can we put a link in? Is it only available to 798 00:39:52,440 --> 00:39:53,960 Bloomberg customers? You know, tell us more. 799 00:39:54,320 --> 00:39:56,160 Sure. So the kind of things I was 800 00:39:56,160 --> 00:39:58,160 looking at, there are a couple actually there. 801 00:39:59,800 --> 00:40:03,160 These were like the consumer and the business barometers, the 802 00:40:03,160 --> 00:40:06,680 confidence indexes I've talked a lot about in the in the podcast 803 00:40:06,680 --> 00:40:11,360 just now. The first one is the GfK 804 00:40:11,480 --> 00:40:14,120 confidence. You can go and find that, I 805 00:40:14,120 --> 00:40:17,280 think if you just go. Such that into Google, you'll 806 00:40:17,280 --> 00:40:20,240 find that they'll produce a summary. 807 00:40:20,240 --> 00:40:22,480 You might not get access to the full data set, but you'll get a 808 00:40:22,480 --> 00:40:26,400 summary and you'll get a little bit of commentary around what 809 00:40:26,400 --> 00:40:28,680 those show. And that'll be these kind of 810 00:40:28,680 --> 00:40:30,760 indexes, right? They're like, these are 811 00:40:30,760 --> 00:40:33,200 companies where they're going out and surveying the market and 812 00:40:33,200 --> 00:40:35,840 they're asking businesses what they're thinking about. 813 00:40:36,720 --> 00:40:40,280 And then the other one, if you just give me a second I can find 814 00:40:40,480 --> 00:40:43,040 what it was called. That's right. 815 00:40:43,160 --> 00:40:44,960 And just while you're finding that, just for everyone 816 00:40:44,960 --> 00:40:48,000 listening at home or wherever you are right now, yeah, we'll 817 00:40:48,000 --> 00:40:49,520 put links to both of these as well. 818 00:40:49,520 --> 00:40:51,440 I'll get. Yeah, we'll find a good resource 819 00:40:51,440 --> 00:40:53,680 to pick them up from and put links in the in the show notes. 820 00:40:53,680 --> 00:40:55,880 Whatever platform you're on, you should be able to see that. 821 00:40:55,880 --> 00:40:57,920 If not, our YouTube channel is probably the fastest way just to 822 00:40:57,920 --> 00:41:00,120 get hold of these links, especially if they're coming 823 00:41:00,120 --> 00:41:01,600 out, as you say, regularly. Lawrence. 824 00:41:01,600 --> 00:41:03,840 It's a good place just to go on there every week, every month, 825 00:41:03,840 --> 00:41:05,080 whatever the frequency is. Yeah. 826 00:41:05,200 --> 00:41:07,320 Yeah, exactly. They're pretty frequent, often 827 00:41:07,320 --> 00:41:09,720 monthly or quarterly. The other one I was looking at 828 00:41:09,720 --> 00:41:14,760 was the CBI, which is the economic service they have and 829 00:41:14,760 --> 00:41:17,920 they have three different ones. And I think when we first 830 00:41:17,920 --> 00:41:20,280 discussed about it, it was literally coming up the next day 831 00:41:20,840 --> 00:41:22,120 talking about the end of the year. 832 00:41:22,120 --> 00:41:25,440 So it was really great timing. I mean there's, there is an 833 00:41:25,440 --> 00:41:28,680 absolute like ton of data you can look at. 834 00:41:29,480 --> 00:41:31,840 Bloomberg has some amazing tools to do that. 835 00:41:32,200 --> 00:41:34,920 A lot of the summer of these things we will also post on 836 00:41:35,000 --> 00:41:37,000 Bloomberg News or like the website. 837 00:41:37,480 --> 00:41:38,920 So you can definitely see things there. 838 00:41:40,320 --> 00:41:42,280 So yeah, I mean, there's so much. 839 00:41:43,880 --> 00:41:45,320 I will just leave it at that for now though. 840 00:41:45,880 --> 00:41:46,920 Yeah, yeah. No, all good. 841 00:41:47,160 --> 00:41:49,520 And I really appreciate that because yeah, it was one thing 842 00:41:49,520 --> 00:41:51,400 hearing this episode, but people are sitting there going 843 00:41:51,400 --> 00:41:52,320 actually, I want to hear loads more. 844 00:41:52,600 --> 00:41:53,720 It's good to have some resources. 845 00:41:53,720 --> 00:41:56,680 And just just to kind of round off my thoughts on what we've 846 00:41:56,680 --> 00:42:00,600 been talking about today, guys, I love the fact that this is for 847 00:42:00,600 --> 00:42:02,960 once in marketing, we get to look a bit further forward than 848 00:42:02,960 --> 00:42:05,280 just the standard 12 month retail calendar of like 849 00:42:05,600 --> 00:42:07,800 Valentine's Day, Mother's Day, Father's Day, Christmas, 850 00:42:07,800 --> 00:42:10,080 etcetera and loads of other stuff in between like Easter. 851 00:42:10,880 --> 00:42:13,080 It's nice to be able to look at this and go, right, Actually, a 852 00:42:13,120 --> 00:42:15,720 lot of these resources you've mentioned and looking at things 853 00:42:15,720 --> 00:42:18,600 like inflation, there is there is a level of prediction we can 854 00:42:18,600 --> 00:42:21,280 do on this and go, do you know what if I know what inflation 855 00:42:21,280 --> 00:42:23,080 is, I know where I'm going to be in five years. 856 00:42:23,080 --> 00:42:25,480 I know it's going to, well, certainly no, roughly as as an 857 00:42:25,480 --> 00:42:28,040 idea, it's going to be more expensive and my cash is going 858 00:42:28,040 --> 00:42:31,040 to go less and nowhere near as far as it used to. 859 00:42:31,480 --> 00:42:34,040 So actually keeping my stock levels internally at a good 860 00:42:34,040 --> 00:42:36,600 level means I'm sitting on stock, which is an asset as long 861 00:42:36,600 --> 00:42:39,000 as it is valuable from a marketing perspective to sell 862 00:42:39,000 --> 00:42:40,120 it. So I think there's some good 863 00:42:40,120 --> 00:42:42,040 opportunities to actually look forward rather than what we 864 00:42:42,040 --> 00:42:44,200 normally do in marketing is like come up with a hypothetical 865 00:42:44,200 --> 00:42:46,560 idea, we test it, we try and monitor it, get some stats and 866 00:42:46,560 --> 00:42:48,560 see how well it's gone and then try and get some learnings and 867 00:42:48,560 --> 00:42:50,400 do the next one. It's nice to actually predict 868 00:42:50,400 --> 00:42:52,080 forward and go, well, we're going to have to make this 869 00:42:52,080 --> 00:42:53,720 change in the next sort of one to three years. 870 00:42:53,720 --> 00:42:55,800 So is it going to be a gradual change to be overnight? 871 00:42:55,800 --> 00:42:57,320 How we're going to plan it? We've got a bit of time to 872 00:42:57,320 --> 00:42:59,880 actually think about it and get so active because I know I know 873 00:42:59,880 --> 00:43:02,280 what you marketing managers are like and found this. 874 00:43:02,280 --> 00:43:04,840 It's yeah, mad scramble going. Is it Black Friday now? 875 00:43:04,840 --> 00:43:06,320 Yes, it is. Oh, quick phone the marketing 876 00:43:06,320 --> 00:43:08,040 agency and I'm the guy that gets the call. 877 00:43:08,040 --> 00:43:10,200 So the more we can plan ahead, the better. 878 00:43:10,200 --> 00:43:12,040 But Lawrence, I want to say a massive thank you. 879 00:43:12,040 --> 00:43:14,320 I appreciate all the time you put in ahead of today as well. 880 00:43:14,320 --> 00:43:16,400 Thank you for joining us and thank you for sharing such great 881 00:43:16,400 --> 00:43:17,720 insights. My pleasure. 882 00:43:17,720 --> 00:43:20,360 Nick, I really enjoyed being on, so thank you as well. 883 00:43:21,280 --> 00:43:22,440 Awesome. Well thank you so much and for 884 00:43:22,440 --> 00:43:24,560 everybody listening at home, we are back again next week. 885 00:43:24,760 --> 00:43:26,760 If you haven't already, please hit that magical subscribe 886 00:43:26,760 --> 00:43:28,240 button. Leave us a review. 887 00:43:28,240 --> 00:43:31,320 And also if you're watching this and sorry, if you're listening 888 00:43:31,320 --> 00:43:33,240 and not watching this, please go on our YouTube channel. 889 00:43:33,400 --> 00:43:36,360 The time of writing, we have 5 Subs below 1000 subscribers. 890 00:43:36,360 --> 00:43:38,560 And when we hit 1000, we can change what we do on the 891 00:43:38,560 --> 00:43:40,640 channel. It opens a few doors to us. 892 00:43:40,640 --> 00:43:42,280 So go and hit that subscribe button everybody. 893 00:43:42,280 --> 00:43:44,320 I've never asked you in such a direct way. 894 00:43:44,520 --> 00:43:47,920 If you're on YouTube right now, 98% of you are not subscribed to 895 00:43:47,920 --> 00:43:49,880 hit that button, even though you're regular watchers. 896 00:43:49,880 --> 00:43:51,720 Please hit subscribe button. Thanks for joining, joining us 897 00:43:51,720 --> 00:43:53,440 back again next Friday and I hope you'll stay well.