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This is epicenter episode 342 
with guest Jim Bianco. 

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Hi, welcome to epicenter. 
My name is Sebastian Cujo. 

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Today. 
Our guest is Jim Bianco. 

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Jim is the president and macro 
strategist. 

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At Bianco research there, a 
chicago-based firm. 

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And they provide research and 
Analysis. 

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For institutional Finance, gym 
is one of the people that I've 

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enjoyed following the most to 
understand the long-term. 

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Economic Consequences of this 
pandemic. 

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I first heard about him on the 
macro voices, podcast back in 

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March. 
And I thought this guy brings so

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much Clarity and sense-making to
this entire pandemic and we had 

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him at reset everything in 
April. 

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If you haven't heard that talk 
yet. 

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You should definitely watch it. 
It's quite complementary to this

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episode. 
The link will be in the show 

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notes. 
So here's what you'll learn in 

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this interview, Jim's background
on Wall Street, and how he 

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transitioned into research, why 
he was so early to talk about, 

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The pandemic and the crisis, the
lessons learned from this 

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pandemic. 
And what's next, what? 

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Long-term? 
Economic and societal Trends, we

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can expect the fed their 
response, the effects on the 

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economy and where to go from 
here. 

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Jim's views on Ubi and the 
legitimacy of taxes. 

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If we can just print infinite 
money, the u.s. 

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Debt problem caused by the 
slowing of international trade, 

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the US dollar as a reserve 
currency. 

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And how it could be displaced 
the prospect of a crypto based 

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Reserve currency and the 
disruption to central banks. 

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How close we are to crypto and 
Bitcoin becoming an asset class 

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in the traditional Finance 
system. 

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And Jim's vision for the Post 
virus world to after the 

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interview Brian. 
I talked for an extra 20 minutes

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and we had a super interesting 
conversation where we debriefed.

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We talk about what we learned, 
where we disagreed with Jim and 

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we start our own thoughts about 
About where things are going 

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with this pandemic, you know, 
some of the most fun and 

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interesting conversations that I
have are with other hosts of 

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epicenter. 
It's when met her Brian. 

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Sunny for the lake and I get to 
just sit down and chat, and this

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is something you, our listeners 
have told us to one of the 

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things that you asked for the 
most our episodes where we just 

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talk to each other, when it's 
just us, hosts expressing or own

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opinions. 
We want to give you more of that

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today. 
We're launching epicenter 

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premium, which will give you 
access. 

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To exclusive content. 
Here's what you'll get as a 

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premium subscriber number one 
over time content. 

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That's when we keep recording 
for an extra 10 or 20 minutes 

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after the interview to share our
thoughts about the conversation 

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and the project. 
Number two, epicenter 

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roundtables. 
That's where the host will come 

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together to discuss industry 
events issues and Trends. 

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You've heard episodes like these
before. 

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We've done several yearly. 
Retrospectives in the past or 

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panel. 
Ian's where we discuss specific 

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issues going on in the industry.
Sometimes we'll bring in some 

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extra guest hosts, but these 
episodes will be much more of a 

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panel format than an interview 
format. 

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And number 3, bonus content. 
So I'm talking about epicenter 

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live, recordings conference, 
interviews project updates. 

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All the content. 
We've typically released as 

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bonus content will also live on 
the premium podcast as a premium

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subscriber, you'll get access to
a private members-only RSS feed 

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and we're launching epicenter. 
Premium today for early adopters

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at $150 per year. 
I think you're really going to 

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like this and this is just the 
beginning. 

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This is Phase 1. 
We have lots of ideas in terms 

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of what we want to give our 
premium members and we'll build 

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on top of this initial offer. 
So the price is likely to 

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increase at some point, but as 
an early adopter, you'll get to 

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experience it all for just $150 
per year to become a premium 

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subscriber. 
Go to epicenter dot rocks /, 

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premium to hear content. 
You won't hear anywhere. 

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Where else and if you've been 
following over the last couple 

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weeks, we were going to do this 
on sub stack, but we've decided 

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to use other tools instead sub 
Stacks a great product, but 

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after doing some more research 
and looking into how other 

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podcasts are managing paid 
subscriptions, it didn't quite 

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cut it in terms of what we're 
trying to build. 

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So for those of you who showed 
interest on sub stack, just go 

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to epicenter dot rocks / 
premium, and you can sign up 

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there. 
Thank you to everyone who is 

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supporting us in this new, 
exciting journey, and if you 

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have anything you want to share,
You can reach me directly 

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Celestia at epicenter. 
Dot TV. 

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Little bit of housekeeping on 
the day. 

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This comes out in a couple of 
hours, from when this episode is

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released. 
I'm moderating a fireside chat 

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with Joe Lubin and Danny Ryan. 
It's happening at the maenette 

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conference and you can still get
your tickets at May. 

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Net dot events. 
And next week is the web three 

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form. 
It's part of COG access 

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organized by fabric Ventures, 
it's June 8th to June 10th, and 

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I am moderating a panel on the 
topic of freedom. 

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Versus Civic duties. 
You can get your tickets, the 

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link to get your free ticket is 
in the show notes. 

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Before we go to the interview. 
I'd like to tell you about least

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Authority. 
There are security consulting 

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company that conducts software, 
security, audits of all sizes 

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from Smart contracts to entire 
block chains. 

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And they've worked on some of 
the most well-known blockchain 

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systems out there including the 
theorem 2.0 spec, but that's not

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all they do. 
They're an incredibly 

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mission-driven team. 
And since we started working 

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together, I've gotten to know 
them and Standing their values. 

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And one of the things they're 
very passionate about is 

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privacy-preserving Technologies.
And this is the entire premise 

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of one of their latest projects,
zero knowledge access passes or 

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C caps water ski caps. 
Well, let's take an example. 

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Let's say your ass ass company. 
And you provide say, encrypted 

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email or encrypted file storage.
You may not have access to your 

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users data. 
But if you're taking credit card

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information, you can still make 
some correlations about the 

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Sure, who that person is their 
identity and their account 

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usage, or perhaps some metadata 
that is leaking from the data 

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itself. 
Well, Zeke apps allow you to 

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take payment information in the 
form of a credit card and give 

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access to your customers, 
effectively disconnecting the 

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payment data from the user data.
So if you're building a SAS 

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service and you're concerned 
about these kinds of privacy 

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considerations for your 
customers, you should definitely

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check out Z caps and least. 30 
is leading the charge with this 

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research to learn more about Z 
caps. 

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Go to least Authority.com / is 
ecaps in here. 

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You can schedule a call with 
them and they'll explain 

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everything there is to know 
about this technology and how 

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you can leverage it for your 
company. 

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And with that. 
Here's our interview with Jim 

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Bianco. 
We're here with Jim Bianco. 

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Jim. 
Thanks for joining us today. 

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Thanks for having me. 
Why did you tell us a little bit

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about your background? 
Where you came from? 

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And what you do in the 
beginning? 

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There was light jumping ahead a 
little bit on this story. 

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I'm born and raised in Chicago. 
I'm a Midwestern ER tended 

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Marquette University in 
Milwaukee, Wisconsin moved to 

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New York, got my MBA from 
Fordham University way back in 

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1990 30 years ago. 
When I was in New York, I worked

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for credit Swiss actually work 
for first Boston when they 

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merged which credits with so was
originally first Boston at that 

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point and then I work for UBS 
Phillips and Drew when UBS just 

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started their operation in New 
York. 

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It was less than 100 people 
worked as a market analyst and a

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technical analyst is you would 
call it today at both of those 

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shops. 
And in 1990. 

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I came back to Chicago was 
affiliated with a brokerage firm

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that I still am to this day. 
Arbor research and trading their

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my marketing partner. 
And in April of 2000, are April 

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of 1998. 
So, 22 years ago. 

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I spun myself off is Bianco 
research as an Affiliated 

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company of Arbor research and 
trading. 

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We do macro research my primary 
audience. 

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Is anybody who's interested in 
macro? 

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So that tends to be more of a 
fixed income type of audience 

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because that lends itself better
to macro then equities, although

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in recent Years. 
Thank you to the ETF universe 

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and Also fed involvement in the 
markets, macros become a lot 

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more important because I 
remember back in 1998, people 

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would say, well why don't care 
what the stock market's going to

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do. 
What stocks doing fine? 

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Well, I'm 2020. 
I can go by is peace, now, so I 

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can just stop there with what I 
think the stock market's going 

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to do. 
So that's the short history of 

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my life in 60 Seconds. 
I'm super excited. 

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Be happy on. 
I've really enjoyed some of your

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podcast. 
You did Don, for example, Eric 

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councils podcast that I've been 
listening to a lot during this 

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crisis. 
I study economics. 

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Originally. 
It's been really nice to sort of

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rediscovered, a little bit and 
spend a lot of time on, you 

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know, macroeconomics and stuff 
like that. 

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And so it really enjoyed your 
writings you faults on that 

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topic. 
Thanks. 

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Thanks a lot getting into the 
meat here. 

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So of course, this is a little 
bit unusual as of an interview 

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as well. 
As we're going to be spending 

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less time on Crypt, although 
we'll get to crypto and more on 

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where the world is heading. 
Now, the context of this is this

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current pandemic. 
So let's start there. 

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Like how did you first, you 
know, learn about this? 

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Like when did you realize? 
Okay, this is going to be a big 

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thing and what the kind of you 
engagement which is topic look. 

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Like, I got under this topic as 
far as the endemic goes in 

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January and I started talking. 
About it in the last week of 

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January as well, too. 
I think the big thing that I 

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learned from the pandemic is 
that being a researcher being a 

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guy that works with numbers. 
I'm just keeping it simple. 

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I understand exponential growth 
and I understood that one China 

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first started reporting, you 
know, a hundred cases or so. 

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I knew that you could be days 
away from me going to 1,000 and 

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you could be a couple of weeks 
away from it, going to 10,000 

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and that was what really started
to concern. 

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And me at least initially was in
the early days of the case 

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growth in the exponential nature
of it. 

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And then we saw it pop up inside
South Korea in Daegu, South 

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Korea. 
That was another warning sign as

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well too. 
And once it kind of got out, I 

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had a feeling that it was going 
to be one of these things that 

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was going to be very, very hard 
to contain. 

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And I also knew that people were
going to be arguing and fighting

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this whole idea that there 
actually is a pandemic, you 

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know, from the US point. 
Point of view you heard as late 

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as the first day of March 
President, Trump still comparing

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it to the flu. 
I used to call them flew 

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truthers. 
At that point trying to dismiss 

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this as the flu. 
So that was kind of where I came

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from it. 
If I was to just put it simply 

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it was when I saw the things 
start to go and I understood the

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power of exponential growth. 
I knew that this thing can go 

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and go real fast. 
Did you anticipate that it would

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become so politicized? 
I mean, you mentioned like these

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flu truthers. 
Did you think that it would get 

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this polarized? 
No, not at all. 

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And it's been the most 
disappointing thing about it is 

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and I won't pull any punches 
here. 

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It seems like this has been used
by some as a politicization, you

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know, in the United States. 
We now talk about that. 

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The left the Democrat Party 
wants to keep things shot, the 

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right, the Republican party 
wants to open things up. 

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So even the sponsz to this has 
now become politicized. 

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I've been looking with a wary 
eye at every biotech company. 

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Look biotech companies are kind 
of like oil drillers kind of 

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like Junior miners. 
There's a lot of hucksters with 

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a lot of fraud in that business 
as well to that, you know, 

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everybody's trying to run out 
some kind of a press release 

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saying that. 
Oh, we're going to Phase 10. 

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00:12:07,800 --> 00:12:09,700
We're going to this, we got 
this, we've made this 

230
00:12:09,700 --> 00:12:12,300
breakthrough we make that 
breakthrough just to wrap their 

231
00:12:12,300 --> 00:12:14,400
stocks up. 
So everybody's looking to make a

232
00:12:14,408 --> 00:12:16,600
buck off of this thing. 
As well too. 

233
00:12:16,600 --> 00:12:19,800
And then you've got the 
massaging of the message. 

234
00:12:19,800 --> 00:12:22,900
You know, we've got this 
operation, warp speed in the US,

235
00:12:22,900 --> 00:12:25,600
which is supposed to be when 
that they're preparing, the 

236
00:12:25,600 --> 00:12:29,400
ground for being able to mass 
produce a vaccine. 

237
00:12:29,800 --> 00:12:32,800
There is no vaccine Mass 
produce, what you put me in 

238
00:12:32,800 --> 00:12:34,300
charge of warp speed. 
Okay, great. 

239
00:12:34,400 --> 00:12:36,600
I'm in charge. 
Call me when you get a vaccine 

240
00:12:36,900 --> 00:12:38,900
because there's nothing to do 
then at this point. 

241
00:12:38,900 --> 00:12:43,200
So, it has been a lot 
politicized as well, too. 

242
00:12:43,200 --> 00:12:46,300
And you've seen some of that in 
the UK, with the Politicization 

243
00:12:46,300 --> 00:12:48,200
as well. 
So it has been a bit of a 

244
00:12:48,200 --> 00:12:51,200
disappointment. 
And of course, I'd be remiss if 

245
00:12:51,200 --> 00:12:54,400
I didn't mention the ultimate 
politicization is got to be 

246
00:12:54,400 --> 00:12:55,900
China. 
Continuing to tell us that 

247
00:12:55,900 --> 00:12:59,800
they've had zero cases for the 
last 40 days as well too or that

248
00:12:59,800 --> 00:13:01,700
the country. 
There are two originated with 1 

249
00:13:01,700 --> 00:13:05,800
billion people that let 11 
million people out of Wuhan to 

250
00:13:05,800 --> 00:13:08,900
travel right before the Lunar 
New Year claims. 

251
00:13:08,900 --> 00:13:12,800
It stopped at 82 thousand cases 
where they're like number 16, I 

252
00:13:12,800 --> 00:13:17,100
think on the list right now of 
In terms of countries around the

253
00:13:17,100 --> 00:13:19,600
world. 
So there's a big politicization 

254
00:13:19,600 --> 00:13:23,200
going on there as well, too. 
So, what's the biggest lesson 

255
00:13:23,200 --> 00:13:28,400
here that you've learned through
this crisis both in terms of 

256
00:13:28,500 --> 00:13:31,900
maybe political behaviors, but 
also just in terms of the 

257
00:13:32,100 --> 00:13:34,500
economic impact on the economic 
response. 

258
00:13:35,600 --> 00:13:38,900
I think the biggest lesson I've 
learned is the way that the 

259
00:13:38,900 --> 00:13:44,000
markets after a 20 or 30-year 
bull market and an 11-year run 

260
00:13:44,000 --> 00:13:47,000
that we've had that ended in 
March. 

261
00:13:47,600 --> 00:13:50,100
It was going to be very 
difficult for it to die. 

262
00:13:50,200 --> 00:13:54,200
Let me back up a second, one of 
the big stories you'll hear from

263
00:13:54,400 --> 00:13:56,100
money. 
Managers in the u.s. 

264
00:13:56,500 --> 00:14:01,100
Is this, the most hated bull 
market ever that is 180 degrees 

265
00:14:01,100 --> 00:14:03,800
wrong. 
This bull market is is 

266
00:14:03,800 --> 00:14:07,800
worryingly popular. 
And we have a Mania going on 

267
00:14:08,100 --> 00:14:12,600
with small retail investors as 
big as it was in the 2000 

268
00:14:12,600 --> 00:14:16,200
technique. 
If not bigger, what these money 

269
00:14:16,200 --> 00:14:19,400
managers fail to recognize this,
is that the public doesn't hate 

270
00:14:19,400 --> 00:14:21,700
the stock market. 
They hate you. 

271
00:14:21,800 --> 00:14:25,100
They are not interested in 
active managers anymore, and 

272
00:14:25,100 --> 00:14:28,600
that they're putting their money
into the market in a big way. 

273
00:14:29,000 --> 00:14:32,600
What I didn't anticipate and 
still have struggling to 

274
00:14:32,900 --> 00:14:36,300
understand. 
Is that through Throughout March

275
00:14:36,300 --> 00:14:39,400
and throughout April, when the 
market was collapsing, the data 

276
00:14:39,400 --> 00:14:44,500
is showing that the public in 
the US, had long ran into the 

277
00:14:44,500 --> 00:14:48,200
collapsing Market opened new 
accounts deposited. 

278
00:14:48,200 --> 00:14:53,400
More money bought stocks bought 
ETFs all throughout the entire 

279
00:14:53,400 --> 00:14:59,300
Decline and all into April and 
the amount of activity by small 

280
00:14:59,300 --> 00:15:03,300
retail has been astonishing. 
And I think has been one of the 

281
00:15:03,300 --> 00:15:05,300
big things on the margin. 
That's been lifting. 

282
00:15:05,400 --> 00:15:08,100
Market. 
I was under the impression, like

283
00:15:08,100 --> 00:15:12,600
a lot of people that won the 
market broke in March small, 

284
00:15:12,600 --> 00:15:17,100
retail would run away from the 
market angry and convinced that 

285
00:15:17,100 --> 00:15:20,600
it was they were burned and that
they would never come back 

286
00:15:20,600 --> 00:15:22,400
again. 
That's typical of their 

287
00:15:22,400 --> 00:15:24,800
response. 
We got the opposite of that. 

288
00:15:25,200 --> 00:15:28,900
It seems like today after 
screaming, there is no 

289
00:15:28,900 --> 00:15:31,900
alternative Tina or fomo fear of
missing out. 

290
00:15:32,200 --> 00:15:35,200
It's almost like they open up 
their, their trading apps and it

291
00:15:35,300 --> 00:15:38,900
Like let's go find something 
that's collapsed oil Airlines 

292
00:15:38,900 --> 00:15:43,100
retail and let's buy it because 
all the collapsing stuff 

293
00:15:43,100 --> 00:15:46,000
rebounds and that's where you 
make the money the most amount 

294
00:15:46,000 --> 00:15:48,200
of money. 
They sure they change they 

295
00:15:48,200 --> 00:15:52,100
change Chase momentum in the big
cap stocks as well too. 

296
00:15:52,500 --> 00:15:55,700
But if you look at like the 
Robin Hood app and the Robin 

297
00:15:55,700 --> 00:16:00,200
Hood API, some of the biggest 
owners of are like the the 

298
00:16:00,200 --> 00:16:04,900
singles dollar of the Fords and 
the Airlines and the Boeing's. 

299
00:16:05,400 --> 00:16:08,500
Seemed to be looking at the 
Airlines and saying, I don't 

300
00:16:08,500 --> 00:16:10,000
need to know anything about the 
fundamentals. 

301
00:16:10,000 --> 00:16:12,300
All I know is the government 
will let them go bust. 

302
00:16:12,400 --> 00:16:14,900
So I have to buy them because 
they're going to go back up. 

303
00:16:15,200 --> 00:16:17,900
That's what's been. 
The biggest surprise to me was 

304
00:16:17,900 --> 00:16:21,500
the resiliency that investors 
have had to want to just 

305
00:16:21,500 --> 00:16:26,200
continue to believe and continue
to use every debacle in a, 

306
00:16:26,300 --> 00:16:31,400
either a stock, or the market in
general and March to rush in not

307
00:16:31,400 --> 00:16:34,900
to run away. 
Cool, that's super interesting. 

308
00:16:35,100 --> 00:16:37,800
I mean we want to spend a lot of
time today talking about the 

309
00:16:37,800 --> 00:16:41,100
market, but I'm also just 
curious if you know like you 

310
00:16:41,100 --> 00:16:45,000
learned in January about the 
virus depend emic and started 

311
00:16:45,000 --> 00:16:48,300
thinking through this today. 
We're almost at the start of 

312
00:16:48,300 --> 00:16:50,700
June. 
So quite a few months have 

313
00:16:50,700 --> 00:16:53,800
passed since then. 
There's been a lot of data. 

314
00:16:53,900 --> 00:16:59,100
What are your faults today about
how this will play out in terms 

315
00:16:59,100 --> 00:17:02,900
of the actual pandemic and 
reopening and lockdown. 

316
00:17:03,100 --> 00:17:06,300
On this. 
And what's a trajectory at this 

317
00:17:06,300 --> 00:17:09,200
point? 
I don't know anything more than 

318
00:17:09,200 --> 00:17:11,400
anybody else when it comes to 
whether or not there's going to 

319
00:17:11,400 --> 00:17:15,000
be a second wave or whether or 
not how much we're going to go 

320
00:17:15,000 --> 00:17:18,700
down. 
I'll just say that it seems like

321
00:17:19,200 --> 00:17:21,500
this is following the pattern of
the flu. 

322
00:17:21,500 --> 00:17:25,099
What you seeing happened is if 
you look at the world X, the 

323
00:17:25,099 --> 00:17:25,800
u.s. 
U.s. 

324
00:17:25,800 --> 00:17:27,300
This got the biggest number of 
cases. 

325
00:17:27,300 --> 00:17:29,100
So let's put that aside 
separately. 

326
00:17:29,500 --> 00:17:32,900
We look at the world X2 u.s. 
It's making new highs, it made. 

327
00:17:33,000 --> 00:17:36,200
It's all time high in terms of 
daily case that count daily 

328
00:17:36,200 --> 00:17:38,500
case. 
Count not obviously every day is

329
00:17:38,500 --> 00:17:41,700
a new high but the daily case 
count made a new high on Friday.

330
00:17:42,100 --> 00:17:46,400
Little over 100 1000 cases. 
Most of that's coming from South

331
00:17:46,400 --> 00:17:49,300
America. 
It's coming from Africa. 

332
00:17:49,600 --> 00:17:53,300
It's coming from the Middle East
and a little bit more from Asia 

333
00:17:53,300 --> 00:17:55,300
as well too. 
But basically South America is 

334
00:17:55,300 --> 00:17:58,600
the big one and Africa's the big
one early on. 

335
00:17:58,600 --> 00:18:02,000
When this case, count first 
started, you weren't getting any

336
00:18:02,000 --> 00:18:04,300
cases out of Not in South 
America. 

337
00:18:04,800 --> 00:18:08,000
So it looks like what's happened
is as we transition to the 

338
00:18:08,000 --> 00:18:11,300
northern hemisphere summer and 
the southern hemispheres winter,

339
00:18:11,300 --> 00:18:13,000
which would be their cold and 
flu season. 

340
00:18:13,400 --> 00:18:17,100
The virus is moving south of the
Equator which suggests to me 

341
00:18:17,100 --> 00:18:19,200
that it would probably move back
north of the equator. 

342
00:18:19,400 --> 00:18:21,400
When we get back in the cold 
weather in the northern 

343
00:18:21,400 --> 00:18:25,100
hemisphere, you know, in October
or November, we'll have to see 

344
00:18:25,100 --> 00:18:27,400
that. 
And then in the u.s., If you 

345
00:18:27,400 --> 00:18:29,700
look at the u.s. 
If you break it down in the u.s.

346
00:18:30,000 --> 00:18:33,300
You can take New York and New 
Jersey because They're a 

347
00:18:33,300 --> 00:18:35,900
separate instance. 
They've clearly peeked in on the

348
00:18:35,900 --> 00:18:39,300
downside, but the other 48 
states in the US has been 

349
00:18:39,300 --> 00:18:42,700
holding fairly steady for the 
last two or three weeks. 

350
00:18:43,000 --> 00:18:46,800
There hasn't been any kind of 
our drop-off there as well to 

351
00:18:47,000 --> 00:18:51,100
that suggest that the case count
is not over, but I think really 

352
00:18:51,100 --> 00:18:54,800
the big story that I've been 
focusing on is the economy 

353
00:18:54,800 --> 00:18:57,800
itself. 
We already damaged the economy. 

354
00:18:58,100 --> 00:19:00,600
We did 39 million. 
People have filed for 

355
00:19:00,600 --> 00:19:02,800
unemployment us. 
That's 25%. 

356
00:19:03,100 --> 00:19:06,600
Us Workforce. 
That is the highest unemployment

357
00:19:06,600 --> 00:19:09,500
rate since the Great Depression.
And when this is over, it might 

358
00:19:09,500 --> 00:19:13,200
exceed the great depressions 
unemployment rate because he's 

359
00:19:13,200 --> 00:19:15,000
been damaged. 
I don't care if we find a 

360
00:19:15,008 --> 00:19:19,700
vaccine tomorrow, I do care but 
I don't think it matters if we 

361
00:19:19,700 --> 00:19:23,200
find a vaccine tomorrow or by 
the end of this year. 

362
00:19:24,300 --> 00:19:27,600
How do we get those 39 million 
people back to work? 

363
00:19:28,200 --> 00:19:30,500
How do we get those businesses 
going again? 

364
00:19:31,100 --> 00:19:32,900
I fear that the damage is 
already. 

365
00:19:33,000 --> 00:19:37,800
Already been done and even a 
vaccine tomorrow won't undo that

366
00:19:38,200 --> 00:19:41,200
will give you a statistic that 
I've been really trench, 

367
00:19:41,300 --> 00:19:45,200
championing quite a bit. 
You look at 2008 and the blow 

368
00:19:45,200 --> 00:19:47,800
point in 2008. 
I'll point the US. 

369
00:19:47,800 --> 00:19:53,200
Economy was 96 percent of what 
it was in 2007? 

370
00:19:53,500 --> 00:19:57,100
A 4% drop, that was good to have
the stock market. 

371
00:19:57,100 --> 00:19:59,400
Get your ten percent 
unemployment rate during the 

372
00:19:59,400 --> 00:20:02,700
Great Depression at its worst 
point in 1933. 

373
00:20:03,200 --> 00:20:08,100
Output was seventy-four percent 
of what it was in 1929 and that 

374
00:20:08,100 --> 00:20:09,300
will give you a Great 
Depression. 

375
00:20:09,700 --> 00:20:13,400
So when I hear people like Ross 
Gerber say, you know, he's a 

376
00:20:13,700 --> 00:20:16,900
pundit on fin Twitter, a lot 
saying I really think that we're

377
00:20:16,900 --> 00:20:21,500
gonna get back to 85 or 90% of 
where we were previous by the 

378
00:20:21,500 --> 00:20:23,700
end of the year. 
That's a depression. 

379
00:20:24,200 --> 00:20:27,700
We get back to like, 97 98 
percent to have it be a 

380
00:20:27,700 --> 00:20:32,800
garden-variety recession, 95 
percent would be a re-run of 08.

381
00:20:33,000 --> 00:20:36,600
8 85 to 90% economy in The 
Economist had a cover story 

382
00:20:36,600 --> 00:20:40,400
about this about two weeks ago. 
That is a depression is what 

383
00:20:40,400 --> 00:20:41,800
that is. 
And I don't think a lot of 

384
00:20:41,808 --> 00:20:44,200
people realize that they'll 
just, you know, when the u.s. 

385
00:20:44,200 --> 00:20:47,300
Here we'll just get all excited 
will say, hey, look at this. 

386
00:20:47,600 --> 00:20:50,100
There's more people in this 
story this week than last week, 

387
00:20:50,400 --> 00:20:51,700
this restaurant open. 
Yeah. 

388
00:20:51,700 --> 00:20:55,200
Well, it, 50% capacity that 
restaurants going out of 

389
00:20:55,200 --> 00:20:57,200
business. 
There's virtually no restaurant,

390
00:20:57,200 --> 00:21:00,000
the United States that can 
survive at 50% capacity. 

391
00:21:00,000 --> 00:21:02,200
They need to get back to 95% 
capacity. 

392
00:21:02,500 --> 00:21:05,700
Otherwise Got to start laying 
off, people in a big way. 

393
00:21:05,700 --> 00:21:10,100
And that's what I think is, what
people they just want to measure

394
00:21:10,100 --> 00:21:12,600
the absolute. 
Oh, it's better this week than 

395
00:21:12,600 --> 00:21:14,700
it was last week. 
We're reopening are great. 

396
00:21:15,000 --> 00:21:19,800
But I need you to get back to 97
98 percent and then a 90% isn't 

397
00:21:19,800 --> 00:21:21,400
going to cut it. 
That's going to be a big 

398
00:21:21,400 --> 00:21:22,500
problem. 
So that's what I've been 

399
00:21:22,500 --> 00:21:25,600
struggling with. 
How do we have a 90% economy? 

400
00:21:25,800 --> 00:21:28,600
Because if we do we're still 
going to have 13 14 percent 

401
00:21:28,600 --> 00:21:31,600
unemployment, and I don't know 
if those thirteen or fourteen 

402
00:21:31,600 --> 00:21:34,300
percent that are unemployed. 
Are going to be happy with that 

403
00:21:34,300 --> 00:21:37,300
situation unless we keep paying 
them forever. 

404
00:21:37,600 --> 00:21:40,600
Like we are now to be 
unemployed, which case we're 

405
00:21:40,600 --> 00:21:43,800
going to blow out the deficit. 
We're going to have this massive

406
00:21:43,800 --> 00:21:47,900
amount of borrowing and create a
whole nother set of problems as 

407
00:21:47,900 --> 00:21:49,300
it stands. 
Right now. 

408
00:21:49,800 --> 00:21:53,700
We're scheduled to stop with the
extra payments for unemployment 

409
00:21:53,700 --> 00:21:56,200
at the end of July, so we'll 
have to see whether or not it 

410
00:21:56,200 --> 00:21:58,500
gets extended. 
I think it will, but I always 

411
00:21:58,500 --> 00:22:01,100
think it extended to the 
election in November, but not 

412
00:22:01,100 --> 00:22:04,500
into perpetuity. 
Yeah, and that kind of opens up,

413
00:22:04,500 --> 00:22:06,900
you know, the question about 
Universal basic income. 

414
00:22:06,900 --> 00:22:11,900
And if that is possibly a 
longer-term trend here, that 

415
00:22:11,900 --> 00:22:13,500
gets accelerated. 
So we come back to this a little

416
00:22:13,500 --> 00:22:16,100
bit later. 
But to what extent has this 

417
00:22:16,100 --> 00:22:20,500
economic situation been caused 
by the virus and rather than 

418
00:22:20,500 --> 00:22:23,900
just triggering some 
longer-term, secular trends that

419
00:22:23,900 --> 00:22:27,900
were going to trigger. 
Anyway, I mean, What proportion 

420
00:22:27,900 --> 00:22:32,400
of the economic impact you 
attribute to the virus versus a 

421
00:22:32,500 --> 00:22:35,000
Market. 
That was due to collapse at some

422
00:22:35,000 --> 00:22:37,000
point. 
You're right. 

423
00:22:37,300 --> 00:22:41,300
The saying you hear a lot? 
Is that covid-19 with the pin? 

424
00:22:41,300 --> 00:22:45,200
And it wasn't a bubble itself 
and that there was a bubble, not

425
00:22:45,200 --> 00:22:48,100
a big difference. 
Let's talk about viruses for a 

426
00:22:48,100 --> 00:22:51,600
quick second. 
You had Stars why a lot of 

427
00:22:51,608 --> 00:22:56,700
people don't remember SARS 
because it was really proclaimed

428
00:22:56,700 --> 00:23:02,200
as a pandemic, two days after 
the Gulf War 2003 started, we 

429
00:23:02,200 --> 00:23:04,800
were too. 
Is he watching CNN watching the 

430
00:23:04,800 --> 00:23:08,100
United States attack? 
Iraq to notice ours. 

431
00:23:08,600 --> 00:23:11,600
There are Spanish Flu in 1918 
happened. 

432
00:23:11,900 --> 00:23:15,100
When the soldiers returned back 
from World War one, they brought

433
00:23:15,100 --> 00:23:17,800
it back with them. 
In both cases. 

434
00:23:17,800 --> 00:23:20,300
The economy was already 
depressed. 

435
00:23:20,400 --> 00:23:23,100
It was already somewhat of a 
deflated bubble. 

436
00:23:23,400 --> 00:23:25,700
So when you have a deflated 
bubble and you stick a pin in 

437
00:23:25,700 --> 00:23:27,200
it, you don't get much of a 
reaction. 

438
00:23:27,600 --> 00:23:30,200
But this one was the 11th year 
of an expansion. 

439
00:23:30,200 --> 00:23:33,100
Three and a half percent 
unemployment all Time highs in 

440
00:23:33,100 --> 00:23:36,500
the stock market, the president 
tweeting that the I think is 

441
00:23:36,500 --> 00:23:40,800
Infamous tweet, the stock 
market's up 50%. 

442
00:23:40,900 --> 00:23:43,400
You know, since I became 
president, why aren't you up 90?

443
00:23:43,400 --> 00:23:46,300
Because everybody supposed to 
outperform even the market. 

444
00:23:46,400 --> 00:23:50,200
And then, of course, two weeks 
after that came, the pandemic 

445
00:23:50,200 --> 00:23:54,100
and completely deflated all of 
that away by March as well. 

446
00:23:54,100 --> 00:23:57,700
To that was the environment we 
weren't so, it definitely was a 

447
00:23:57,700 --> 00:24:00,600
pin. 
The world was waiting for a PIN 

448
00:24:00,600 --> 00:24:04,300
to come, and this was a big one.
This No doubt a big one that 

449
00:24:04,300 --> 00:24:07,400
came. 
So I do think that a lot of the 

450
00:24:07,400 --> 00:24:11,200
problems that we're facing our 
ones that were there as well. 

451
00:24:11,400 --> 00:24:14,200
But give me another thought to 
about this is when people ask me

452
00:24:14,200 --> 00:24:17,200
the question what kind of 
long-term trends are long-term 

453
00:24:17,200 --> 00:24:21,900
impact you see from the virus? 
And I like to say, I don't think

454
00:24:21,900 --> 00:24:25,000
that this virus is going to 
create any new trend. 

455
00:24:25,000 --> 00:24:28,800
I think what it's going to do is
it's going to accelerate 

456
00:24:28,800 --> 00:24:33,000
existing Trends, so there was a 
trend for people People to work 

457
00:24:33,000 --> 00:24:36,100
at home and that's just getting 
accelerated. 

458
00:24:36,200 --> 00:24:40,000
There was a trend to 
de-emphasize brick-and-mortar 

459
00:24:40,000 --> 00:24:43,000
retail that's getting 
accelerated. 

460
00:24:43,100 --> 00:24:48,000
So there was a trend away from 
Studio broadcasts to more 

461
00:24:48,000 --> 00:24:52,100
podcasts like this that was in 
place before it's getting 

462
00:24:52,100 --> 00:24:54,500
accelerated. 
So I think everything we're 

463
00:24:54,500 --> 00:24:57,300
going to see that comes out of 
this was a trend that was 

464
00:24:57,300 --> 00:25:00,000
already in place. 
We just putting it on high speed

465
00:25:00,000 --> 00:25:02,800
and making it happen a lot 
faster than Would have 

466
00:25:02,800 --> 00:25:05,600
otherwise. 
If you serve extrapolate a 

467
00:25:05,608 --> 00:25:08,800
little bit more and look at 
trends that are brought on by 

468
00:25:08,800 --> 00:25:12,500
things like artificial 
intelligence, automatic vehicles

469
00:25:12,500 --> 00:25:14,400
and stuff like that. 
I mean, like, for years, we've 

470
00:25:14,400 --> 00:25:17,800
been saying that what percentage
of the US Workforce is either 

471
00:25:17,800 --> 00:25:22,100
directly involved in transport 
and Logistics or like secondary 

472
00:25:22,100 --> 00:25:25,100
player and that like restaurants
and truck stops and things like 

473
00:25:25,100 --> 00:25:28,100
that. 
These are all trends that push 

474
00:25:28,100 --> 00:25:30,800
us towards. 
Presumably more unemployment. 

475
00:25:31,300 --> 00:25:34,700
Where do you think that this in?
Shinto. 

476
00:25:34,700 --> 00:25:38,400
Other Trends can take us like, 
you think that Ubi is a 

477
00:25:38,400 --> 00:25:42,200
longer-term solution that can be
viable in this environment? 

478
00:25:43,100 --> 00:25:45,600
Take your first quite a part 
first, but the longer term 

479
00:25:45,600 --> 00:25:51,200
Trends in the u.s., There are 
one of the largest job 

480
00:25:51,200 --> 00:25:54,900
description among tax returns 
is, the job called driver, 

481
00:25:55,400 --> 00:25:59,000
whether you're a truck driver, a
taxi driver, a limo driver, some

482
00:25:59,000 --> 00:26:01,400
kind of driver. 
It's like four and a half, five 

483
00:26:01,400 --> 00:26:03,300
million jobs that are listed as 
driver. 

484
00:26:03,300 --> 00:26:07,500
And obviously, A lot of those 
jobs are going to be at risk 

485
00:26:07,500 --> 00:26:09,500
because of a lot of the 
automation that's coming. 

486
00:26:09,500 --> 00:26:14,100
Not tomorrow, but eventually as 
well to the good news about this

487
00:26:14,100 --> 00:26:16,300
though. 
Is that Bob Gordon Northwestern 

488
00:26:16,300 --> 00:26:19,000
University, which is in 
suburban, Chicago and Evanston, 

489
00:26:19,000 --> 00:26:22,600
illinois is done a lot of work 
on this and he said that a lot 

490
00:26:22,600 --> 00:26:26,100
of these Technologies are net 
creators of jobs. 

491
00:26:26,800 --> 00:26:30,700
Uber might have gotten rid of 
13,000, taxi drive jobs in 

492
00:26:30,700 --> 00:26:33,900
Manhattan, but it created 60 to 
65 thousand, Uber jobs. 

493
00:26:34,300 --> 00:26:36,300
Manhattan as well. 
So yeah, they're lower paid, but

494
00:26:36,300 --> 00:26:39,000
there's more jobs and more, 
abundant jobs, which has helped 

495
00:26:39,000 --> 00:26:43,300
to lower the unemployment rate. 
So the problem with technology 

496
00:26:43,300 --> 00:26:48,400
is when a new technology comes 
like autonomous driving, we can 

497
00:26:48,400 --> 00:26:51,000
immediately see those that are 
going to lose all those two 

498
00:26:51,000 --> 00:26:52,300
people that have those driver 
jobs. 

499
00:26:52,300 --> 00:26:55,800
They're gone. 
But what jobs does it create? 

500
00:26:55,900 --> 00:26:59,500
Those are harder to understand 
when the iPhone one came out 

501
00:26:59,500 --> 00:27:02,000
raise your hand if you thought. 
Oh, this is the end of the taxi 

502
00:27:02,000 --> 00:27:04,000
business because of Luber. 
And this is the end. 

503
00:27:04,200 --> 00:27:06,800
Of the hotel business because 
Airbnb because you instantly 

504
00:27:06,800 --> 00:27:08,600
knew that that's what was going 
to come out of it. 

505
00:27:08,600 --> 00:27:10,900
No, you didn't. 
So these new technologies are 

506
00:27:10,900 --> 00:27:14,600
going to create new jobs, create
whole new Industries. 

507
00:27:14,900 --> 00:27:18,000
We just don't know what they are
and they're being involved right

508
00:27:18,000 --> 00:27:21,200
now, but we can see the jobs is 
going to lose, and that's why 

509
00:27:21,200 --> 00:27:24,900
everybody gets so nervous about 
a lot of this technology. 

510
00:27:25,100 --> 00:27:28,200
As far as you bi goes. 
I'll answer you bi this way. 

511
00:27:28,200 --> 00:27:32,800
I think there's a lot of it as a
political question with Ubi, and

512
00:27:32,800 --> 00:27:36,400
we're doing a form of Now we set
out a twelve hundred dollar 

513
00:27:36,400 --> 00:27:38,300
check. 
We're giving everybody an extra 

514
00:27:38,300 --> 00:27:43,100
$600 a week in federal 
unemployment, and terms of and 

515
00:27:43,100 --> 00:27:45,200
tops of what you get from the 
state. 

516
00:27:45,300 --> 00:27:47,100
If you're like in New York 
state, you're not getting about 

517
00:27:47,100 --> 00:27:51,000
thousand dollars a week. 
And unemployment, if we do that,

518
00:27:51,600 --> 00:27:55,300
and there is no economic impact 
from it. 

519
00:27:55,500 --> 00:27:58,500
There's no inflation. 
There's no crowding out for 

520
00:27:58,500 --> 00:28:01,100
higher interest rates. 
There's no malinvestment. 

521
00:28:01,200 --> 00:28:04,700
If there's none of that, there's
no reason to Stop. 

522
00:28:05,400 --> 00:28:08,900
They're only reason that people 
push back about the idea about 

523
00:28:08,900 --> 00:28:12,700
Ubi on the right, is that it 
will create inflation. 

524
00:28:12,700 --> 00:28:16,600
It will create malinvestment. 
It will create distortions and 

525
00:28:16,600 --> 00:28:19,200
Nick those distortions in the 
long run will be bad. 

526
00:28:19,800 --> 00:28:24,400
But if we do this and there 
isn't will continue to do it and

527
00:28:24,400 --> 00:28:28,800
probably do more of it and more 
of it until we get to that 

528
00:28:28,800 --> 00:28:32,100
Breaking Point, even though 
Stephanie Kelton of the world, 

529
00:28:32,200 --> 00:28:35,800
big mmt, modern monetary. 
Their opponents will tell you, 

530
00:28:36,100 --> 00:28:38,000
there is a limit to what they 
can do. 

531
00:28:38,300 --> 00:28:41,800
There is a point that you could 
go too far and we can find that 

532
00:28:41,800 --> 00:28:45,100
it will create inflation. 
Their belief is that we could do

533
00:28:45,100 --> 00:28:49,200
a lot more than we're doing 
right now and what I think is 

534
00:28:49,200 --> 00:28:52,800
where on that row and if we do 
this and there isn't inflation 

535
00:28:52,800 --> 00:28:54,900
or there, isn't a problem with 
the stock market holds above 

536
00:28:54,900 --> 00:28:57,500
3000 is that it's now and keeps 
going. 

537
00:28:57,900 --> 00:28:59,100
The answer is going to be. 
Oh good. 

538
00:28:59,100 --> 00:29:02,200
Let's do some more and then 
let's do some more and it 

539
00:29:02,200 --> 00:29:04,000
eventually will eventually 
overdo it. 

540
00:29:04,200 --> 00:29:07,700
At some point as well. 
And I think that's going to be 

541
00:29:07,700 --> 00:29:10,300
the biggest problem for the FED.
I know that a lot of people are 

542
00:29:10,300 --> 00:29:11,400
saying, well, the feds going to 
get in. 

543
00:29:11,400 --> 00:29:13,800
They're going to support the 
markets, get everything back to 

544
00:29:14,000 --> 00:29:16,300
normal and then they're going to
withdraw. 

545
00:29:16,800 --> 00:29:19,600
Why, why are they going to with 
drop if you went in there and 

546
00:29:19,600 --> 00:29:22,400
you pumped up everything and all
good stuff happened from it? 

547
00:29:22,800 --> 00:29:27,500
Why stop keep going, especially 
if Trump, trump loves that. 

548
00:29:27,500 --> 00:29:30,600
The FED is doing this. 
He'll definitely be proponent of

549
00:29:30,800 --> 00:29:32,900
buy. 
Some more print, some more go 

550
00:29:32,900 --> 00:29:35,900
further. 
Stop because Trump used to say 

551
00:29:36,400 --> 00:29:40,800
prior to the pandemic when he 
was criticizing pile. 

552
00:29:41,200 --> 00:29:43,800
The Dow would be 10,000 points. 
Higher of Paula done. 

553
00:29:43,800 --> 00:29:46,000
The right thing, which is 
basically cut rates to zero and 

554
00:29:46,000 --> 00:29:47,900
print money. 
Well, that's what he did in the 

555
00:29:47,900 --> 00:29:50,700
markets going up or above 3000 
on the S&P. 

556
00:29:50,900 --> 00:29:53,000
So I'm sure Trump hasn't tweeted
about it yet. 

557
00:29:53,000 --> 00:29:55,900
I think he's a little afraid to 
but I think he definitely wants 

558
00:29:55,900 --> 00:29:59,100
to say yap. 
Ju doing the right thing, print 

559
00:29:59,100 --> 00:30:00,700
faster. 
If anything else. 

560
00:30:01,000 --> 00:30:03,200
Don't think about when you're 
going to get out think about 

561
00:30:03,200 --> 00:30:05,700
getting in deeper. /. 
That's what I prefer you to do. 

562
00:30:06,600 --> 00:30:08,500
What are your thoughts on what 
the FED has done? 

563
00:30:08,500 --> 00:30:11,500
Do you think this is the right 
response or how do you wish they

564
00:30:11,500 --> 00:30:15,000
had dealt with this? 
I'm going to say I understand 

565
00:30:15,000 --> 00:30:18,100
what the FED did and I'm going 
to say understand what Congress 

566
00:30:18,100 --> 00:30:19,900
did and I'm going to say 
understand what most of the 

567
00:30:19,900 --> 00:30:23,900
government's did. 
There's a an old Solano line 

568
00:30:23,900 --> 00:30:25,900
that there's no atheists in a 
foxhole and there's no 

569
00:30:25,900 --> 00:30:29,500
capitalists in a crisis, right? 
There is no way they're going to

570
00:30:29,500 --> 00:30:33,800
sit there and watch 25% of the 
workforce lose their jobs. 

571
00:30:34,700 --> 00:30:37,400
Nine weeks. 
And this stunning statistic that

572
00:30:37,400 --> 00:30:43,300
Pol throughout that 40% of those
that make forty thousand dollars

573
00:30:43,300 --> 00:30:47,800
or less in the United States. 
40% of them lost their jobs, in 

574
00:30:47,800 --> 00:30:50,400
the month of March alone. 
Just in the month of March 

575
00:30:50,400 --> 00:30:52,300
alone. 
Now remember they're on 

576
00:30:52,300 --> 00:30:54,600
unemployment. 
They're getting an extra 600 

577
00:30:54,600 --> 00:30:57,600
bucks a week. 
So financially, they're not 

578
00:30:57,600 --> 00:31:01,300
hurting because they're being 
that money's be replaced, but 

579
00:31:01,300 --> 00:31:03,800
there's no way that was going to
happen. 

580
00:31:04,200 --> 00:31:07,000
And they were going to start 
exposing libertarian or 

581
00:31:07,100 --> 00:31:10,600
conservative principles and say 
that we need to let the market 

582
00:31:10,600 --> 00:31:13,600
self-adjust and everything. 
That's I get that I get that 

583
00:31:13,600 --> 00:31:16,600
from a practical standpoint that
they were going to step in and 

584
00:31:16,600 --> 00:31:20,200
they were going to do something.
My biggest argument with the FED

585
00:31:20,200 --> 00:31:23,000
is, what is it? 
You're trying to do. 

586
00:31:23,600 --> 00:31:27,800
Are you taking the attitude that
Trump is taking Trump? 

587
00:31:27,800 --> 00:31:31,800
Basically is said, oh, when we 
get past this pandemic, we're 

588
00:31:31,800 --> 00:31:34,000
going to go right back to 
January of 2012. 

589
00:31:34,200 --> 00:31:36,600
We're going to go right back to 
2019. 

590
00:31:36,900 --> 00:31:39,200
The sap is going to go right to 
a new high. 

591
00:31:39,300 --> 00:31:41,200
We're going to go right back to 
three and a half percent 

592
00:31:41,200 --> 00:31:44,000
unemployment and it'll be like 
it never happened. 

593
00:31:44,000 --> 00:31:46,400
Nothing will change. 
That's essentially what Trump 

594
00:31:46,400 --> 00:31:49,500
has said over and over again. 
Is that what you're trying to do

595
00:31:49,500 --> 00:31:52,300
with the FED? 
Are you trying to bridge us to 

596
00:31:52,300 --> 00:31:55,500
going, right back to where we 
were before with no change? 

597
00:31:55,700 --> 00:32:00,000
Or do you think there's going to
be some kind of post virus peer 

598
00:32:00,200 --> 00:32:03,300
era, where things are different,
which is what I think. 

599
00:32:04,000 --> 00:32:07,300
And are you trying to manage us 
into that period? 

600
00:32:07,500 --> 00:32:09,000
I don't know what the feds 
trying to do. 

601
00:32:09,200 --> 00:32:11,900
I don't know if they're trying 
to get us with Trump. 

602
00:32:11,900 --> 00:32:13,700
We got to get back to three and 
a half percent unemployment. 

603
00:32:13,700 --> 00:32:15,700
We got to get back to 3400 on 
the SMP. 

604
00:32:15,800 --> 00:32:17,900
We got to get back to like this 
never happened. 

605
00:32:18,500 --> 00:32:24,000
Or are we going to a new era? 
And we need to provide those 

606
00:32:24,000 --> 00:32:26,800
that make less than 40,000, or 
those at the lower end. 

607
00:32:27,100 --> 00:32:30,500
Give them some assistance to 
bridge through, to this new era,

608
00:32:30,600 --> 00:32:32,200
but we're not going back the 
other way. 

609
00:32:32,300 --> 00:32:35,600
I don't know which way the 
Thinking about this at times. 

610
00:32:35,600 --> 00:32:38,300
It looks like they thinking, 
like, Trump that this will all 

611
00:32:38,300 --> 00:32:40,200
go away. 
And we'll just go right back to 

612
00:32:40,200 --> 00:32:42,300
where we were before. 
Other times. 

613
00:32:42,300 --> 00:32:45,900
They seem to think, like, this 
is, we're going to manage 

614
00:32:45,900 --> 00:32:48,000
ourselves to a new environment. 
Well, if you're managing 

615
00:32:48,000 --> 00:32:51,500
yourself to a new environment, 
maybe we need to let the 

616
00:32:51,500 --> 00:32:53,900
airline's restructure, let the 
restaurant industry, 

617
00:32:53,900 --> 00:32:57,600
restructure, let the retailing 
industry restructure, let the 

618
00:32:57,600 --> 00:33:01,200
oil industry restructure, but we
don't allow that, we want to 

619
00:33:01,208 --> 00:33:03,600
just throw money at them and 
say, don't change. 

620
00:33:03,700 --> 00:33:05,600
JH just here. 
Here's some money. 

621
00:33:05,700 --> 00:33:09,400
Just sit there and wait, we'll 
all go back to 2019 and you 

622
00:33:09,408 --> 00:33:12,800
don't have to change or are we 
going to allow them to try and 

623
00:33:12,800 --> 00:33:14,000
change? 
So I don't know what they're 

624
00:33:14,000 --> 00:33:15,400
trying to do. 
And I think the answer is 

625
00:33:15,408 --> 00:33:17,800
because they don't know either. 
I think that they're just 

626
00:33:17,900 --> 00:33:21,000
throwing money at this. 
They're saying my God, we can't 

627
00:33:21,000 --> 00:33:22,700
have this many unemployed 
people. 

628
00:33:22,900 --> 00:33:24,500
We can't have that social 
unrest. 

629
00:33:24,500 --> 00:33:27,100
It would have your throw money 
at them there. 

630
00:33:27,200 --> 00:33:28,700
We've done something for it 
right now. 

631
00:33:28,700 --> 00:33:32,900
We'll figure out from there. 
That sort of ties into, you 

632
00:33:32,900 --> 00:33:36,100
know, the thing you said before 
I like, where is is a limit 

633
00:33:36,100 --> 00:33:38,500
here? 
So, you know, if they print 

634
00:33:38,500 --> 00:33:41,900
money and then it seems to work 
then I guess of course, the 

635
00:33:41,900 --> 00:33:45,100
question comes about well, why 
is it taxation? 

636
00:33:45,100 --> 00:33:48,100
Why don't you just like print 
money instead of raising tax 

637
00:33:48,100 --> 00:33:49,700
revenues from the government or 
like it? 

638
00:33:49,700 --> 00:33:53,000
Why not just print money and 
give it a skew bi or like why 

639
00:33:53,000 --> 00:33:57,400
can't just a central bank, you 
know, print money and buy bonds 

640
00:33:57,400 --> 00:33:59,900
and stocks and all the prices 
like stay up. 

641
00:34:00,100 --> 00:34:03,000
Up. 
So, like where is this heading? 

642
00:34:03,000 --> 00:34:06,800
You think this isn't some sort 
of like this can continue for a 

643
00:34:06,800 --> 00:34:11,500
long time or if it is going to 
break at some point in what 

644
00:34:11,500 --> 00:34:12,699
direction? 
Will it go? 

645
00:34:13,800 --> 00:34:15,199
That's a good question, you 
know. 

646
00:34:15,199 --> 00:34:18,300
Cuz on the right, I've heard a 
lot of people say and they're 

647
00:34:18,699 --> 00:34:22,199
they're factually correct in the
last 10 weeks. 

648
00:34:22,699 --> 00:34:25,500
The government has promised to 
borrow and the FED is printed 

649
00:34:25,500 --> 00:34:28,600
the equivalent of between four 
and five years of tax receipts 

650
00:34:28,600 --> 00:34:32,000
in 10 weeks. 
If you can print and borrow four

651
00:34:32,000 --> 00:34:35,600
and five years of tax receipts 
in 10 weeks without a producing 

652
00:34:35,600 --> 00:34:38,800
inflation without a producing 
male investment without a 

653
00:34:38,808 --> 00:34:42,000
producing problems. 
Then why do we even have an IRS 

654
00:34:42,000 --> 00:34:43,000
to begin with? 
Why? 

655
00:34:43,100 --> 00:34:45,199
Do I even have to pay any taxes 
at all? 

656
00:34:45,300 --> 00:34:47,600
Just print it up and borrow it 
whenever you need those? 

657
00:34:47,600 --> 00:34:51,699
Spend the money as well too. 
So it's kind of like I said, 

658
00:34:51,699 --> 00:34:54,300
what Ubi part of the problem I 
see with this. 

659
00:34:54,300 --> 00:34:58,000
Is that as we keep going, if 
there isn't a bad response. 

660
00:34:58,400 --> 00:35:00,000
We're not going to pull back 
from it. 

661
00:35:00,100 --> 00:35:02,300
Look at QE. 
We used to call that 

662
00:35:02,300 --> 00:35:06,500
unconventional policy 2008. 
Now it's the most conventional 

663
00:35:06,500 --> 00:35:07,300
thing. 
We do. 

664
00:35:07,700 --> 00:35:11,000
We never stopped QE why? 
Cuz they printed the money. 

665
00:35:11,000 --> 00:35:12,900
Here's my little printing. 
Press, they printed. 

666
00:35:13,200 --> 00:35:16,500
The money they threw it at the 
markets there was no inflation. 

667
00:35:16,900 --> 00:35:19,700
There was no bad things that 
happened. 

668
00:35:19,900 --> 00:35:23,300
So they never stopped. 
And when they tried to stop Ten 

669
00:35:23,300 --> 00:35:28,400
Years Later in 2018, 2019, their
Market threw a fit and they 

670
00:35:28,400 --> 00:35:31,100
apologized and they went right 
back to printing money again. 

671
00:35:31,500 --> 00:35:35,500
So I just think that if there 
isn't a bad reaction, none of 

672
00:35:35,500 --> 00:35:38,100
this is going to stop. 
We're just going to keep adding 

673
00:35:38,100 --> 00:35:41,400
on to it and adding on to it as 
well too. 

674
00:35:41,600 --> 00:35:44,400
Now you can argue the The 
politics of it. 

675
00:35:44,500 --> 00:35:47,600
But I do think the politics 
really comes down to those that 

676
00:35:47,600 --> 00:35:49,400
are against Ubi. 
Those are against money 

677
00:35:49,400 --> 00:35:51,800
printing. 
Like me are against it for a 

678
00:35:51,808 --> 00:35:55,300
simple reason, then I think it 
creates distortions and mail 

679
00:35:55,300 --> 00:35:58,500
investment. 
And if it doesn't, then I was 

680
00:35:58,500 --> 00:36:01,600
wrong. 
And the problem that I see is 

681
00:36:01,900 --> 00:36:04,200
that if a thousand dollars a 
month, doesn't produce 

682
00:36:04,200 --> 00:36:07,300
malinvestment, then we'll try to
thousand dollars a month. 

683
00:36:07,400 --> 00:36:09,900
And if that doesn't produce male
investment, will try three 

684
00:36:09,900 --> 00:36:13,300
thousand dollars a month and 
we'll keep going until we get To

685
00:36:13,300 --> 00:36:16,500
either inflation or Malgus 
malinvestment means, we do a lot

686
00:36:16,500 --> 00:36:20,000
of dumb things with the money 
that creates a lot of problems 

687
00:36:20,100 --> 00:36:23,300
further on down the road. 
Do you think it creates more 

688
00:36:23,300 --> 00:36:25,700
inequality? 
So like I think maybe one could 

689
00:36:25,700 --> 00:36:28,300
argue that in the last 10 years,
you know, we've created a lot of

690
00:36:28,300 --> 00:36:31,600
wealth inequality, perhaps, you 
know, more than before. 

691
00:36:31,600 --> 00:36:33,800
Is that a consequence? 
You think of this kiwi in this 

692
00:36:33,800 --> 00:36:36,200
money printing, or am I missing 
something here? 

693
00:36:36,400 --> 00:36:38,800
No, I think it's absolutely a 
consequence of it. 

694
00:36:38,800 --> 00:36:41,600
What is QE doing? 
What did most of the FED 

695
00:36:41,600 --> 00:36:45,900
programs designed to do the 
designed to basically support 

696
00:36:45,900 --> 00:36:49,600
financial markets that the FED 
is printing money, pumping money

697
00:36:49,600 --> 00:36:52,000
into the financial markets and 
they're lifting. 

698
00:36:52,100 --> 00:36:54,900
Financial markets, which is 
what's happened with small 

699
00:36:54,900 --> 00:36:57,400
retail investors. 
They see what's happening. 

700
00:36:57,700 --> 00:36:59,700
They want in on the game as well
too. 

701
00:36:59,700 --> 00:37:01,200
So that's why they're opening 
accounts. 

702
00:37:01,200 --> 00:37:05,000
And that's why you get that 
perversion that people like, oh 

703
00:37:05,000 --> 00:37:06,900
good. 
Look at this, a couple of stocks

704
00:37:06,900 --> 00:37:10,800
that just got crushed by a them 
because they always go back up. 

705
00:37:10,900 --> 00:37:14,200
And, as of today, the last week 
of May, when we're talking, that

706
00:37:14,200 --> 00:37:17,300
strategy works. 
It works all the time by 

707
00:37:17,300 --> 00:37:19,300
everything that's getting 
annihilated on the verge of 

708
00:37:19,300 --> 00:37:21,900
bankruptcy, because it always 
goes right back up. 

709
00:37:22,100 --> 00:37:25,900
At that point that helps the 
investor class. 

710
00:37:25,900 --> 00:37:30,400
All of that, people that have 
money, it helps them see their 

711
00:37:30,400 --> 00:37:33,300
wealth go up. 
And that's why they're not 

712
00:37:33,300 --> 00:37:36,000
complaining as bitterly as they 
were in March. 

713
00:37:36,400 --> 00:37:40,700
Because the 40% of the, of the 
American public, they don't 98% 

714
00:37:40,700 --> 00:37:45,000
of the stocks have seen the 
market go up to 60%. 

715
00:37:45,000 --> 00:37:48,500
It don't own any stocks. 
They're not complaining yet 

716
00:37:48,700 --> 00:37:51,600
because they're getting 600 
bucks a week from the government

717
00:37:51,700 --> 00:37:54,800
and Get into twelve hundred 
dollar check and they're being 

718
00:37:54,800 --> 00:37:58,000
told everything is being 
reopened and they're being told,

719
00:37:58,000 --> 00:38:01,000
jobs will be coming back 
momentarily. 

720
00:38:01,400 --> 00:38:04,900
Well, if all of that happens, 
you know, and that's really to 

721
00:38:04,900 --> 00:38:06,900
me. 
The big question is now that 

722
00:38:06,900 --> 00:38:09,800
we're reopening, what level of 
activity do we get back to? 

723
00:38:10,200 --> 00:38:13,400
We get back to 99%, Everybody 
gets their job back. 

724
00:38:13,600 --> 00:38:16,700
No problem as well. 
It'll be an extraordinary period

725
00:38:16,700 --> 00:38:19,600
in American economic history 
that will be studying for 

726
00:38:19,600 --> 00:38:23,800
Generations. 
But if there is some change and 

727
00:38:23,800 --> 00:38:28,200
that they're left out in the 
cold without a job and maybe 

728
00:38:28,200 --> 00:38:31,800
that these benefits run out, 
you're going to exacerbate the 

729
00:38:31,800 --> 00:38:35,300
wealth inequality as well too. 
And with it you're going to 

730
00:38:35,300 --> 00:38:39,100
exacerbate the social problems 
that came with it last stop for 

731
00:38:39,100 --> 00:38:41,200
you. 
Remember, I like to famously say

732
00:38:41,200 --> 00:38:45,400
that after the FED started QE 
and pumped up the markets in 

733
00:38:45,400 --> 00:38:49,100
2009 and bailed out, the 
financial system. 

734
00:38:49,100 --> 00:38:52,100
We had to push back from both 
sides of the political Spectrum.

735
00:38:52,100 --> 00:38:53,600
Bactrim. 
First, we had the Tea Party 

736
00:38:53,600 --> 00:38:58,300
Movement, which was on the 
right, which was if I had to 

737
00:38:58,300 --> 00:39:01,500
Define it for you. 
They were mad about the bailouts

738
00:39:01,600 --> 00:39:04,700
and they blame the government. 
Then we had Occupy Wall Street 

739
00:39:04,700 --> 00:39:06,700
on the left. 
I was to explain it to you. 

740
00:39:06,700 --> 00:39:09,700
They were mad about the bailouts
and they blamed Wall Street. 

741
00:39:10,000 --> 00:39:13,100
So they were both basically 
arguing about the same thing 

742
00:39:13,200 --> 00:39:15,500
except the, who they were 
blaming was completely 

743
00:39:15,500 --> 00:39:18,700
different. 
And it was all about inequality,

744
00:39:19,000 --> 00:39:21,600
the Arab Spring and a lot of 
other things were about the 

745
00:39:21,600 --> 00:39:23,300
inequality. 
Quality, so yeah, it makes it 

746
00:39:23,300 --> 00:39:27,000
much worse and this has the 
potential to make it really bad 

747
00:39:27,300 --> 00:39:30,000
if it doesn't work out as well 
as we think. 

748
00:39:30,200 --> 00:39:33,500
And that what I mean by that is 
40% of the public, doesn't own 

749
00:39:33,500 --> 00:39:35,400
any stocks. 
We're not going to hand them 

750
00:39:35,400 --> 00:39:38,400
stocks and watch him go up. 
But what they need is, they need

751
00:39:38,400 --> 00:39:40,400
their job back. 
I mean, they need their job back

752
00:39:40,400 --> 00:39:42,500
this summer. 
They don't need their job back 

753
00:39:42,500 --> 00:39:47,400
in two years, and we need to see
several million people a month 

754
00:39:47,400 --> 00:39:52,800
getting jobs back by July August
September October if Happens. 

755
00:39:53,100 --> 00:39:56,600
And I had my doubts on that, 
then it worked out. 

756
00:39:56,600 --> 00:39:58,700
But if it doesn't happen, we're 
going to have this permanent 

757
00:39:58,700 --> 00:40:01,900
underclass and an exacerbation 
of the wealth inequality. 

758
00:40:02,900 --> 00:40:07,100
We talked about to keep doing 
this and if it kind of works, 

759
00:40:07,100 --> 00:40:08,500
you know, they'll keep printing 
money. 

760
00:40:08,500 --> 00:40:11,000
And I totally agree. 
That's what's going to happen. 

761
00:40:11,700 --> 00:40:14,800
But you know, it seems like my 
take would be in the long run. 

762
00:40:14,800 --> 00:40:18,100
You don't think that can keep 
going forever. 

763
00:40:18,700 --> 00:40:20,900
What do you think? 
Dan game is here? 

764
00:40:22,000 --> 00:40:23,900
It's a good question. 
I think the end game is going to

765
00:40:23,900 --> 00:40:28,200
come fairly soon. 
And what I mean by that is that 

766
00:40:28,500 --> 00:40:33,100
right now the market is rallying
on this idea that We're going to

767
00:40:33,100 --> 00:40:35,400
reopen and everything's going to
be good. 

768
00:40:35,700 --> 00:40:38,600
The market is rallying on the 
idea that there's going to be a 

769
00:40:38,600 --> 00:40:42,900
vaccine and that that's going to
solve the problems taking those 

770
00:40:42,900 --> 00:40:44,800
one at a time. 
Right now. 

771
00:40:44,800 --> 00:40:48,600
We're in the Hulk face. 
We're just reopening we haven't 

772
00:40:48,600 --> 00:40:54,600
reopened Edie past tense so we 
can pretend or we can project 

773
00:40:54,600 --> 00:40:58,600
whatever we think the reopening 
is going to be once we get 

774
00:40:58,600 --> 00:41:03,800
started on the reopening and we 
then find what the Reality is I 

775
00:41:03,800 --> 00:41:06,000
think it might disappoint 
Starbucks, just recently 

776
00:41:06,000 --> 00:41:11,500
reported that in their stores in
China, which they reopened in 

777
00:41:11,500 --> 00:41:16,300
late February 3, months ago 
there at 85% sales. 

778
00:41:16,700 --> 00:41:18,800
So I don't think Starbucks is 
gonna be able to make a profit 

779
00:41:18,800 --> 00:41:23,200
in China with losing 15 percent 
revenues in one year. 

780
00:41:23,600 --> 00:41:28,600
And this is after 90 days and in
a country where the last 40 

781
00:41:28,600 --> 00:41:32,500
days, they've essentially 
reported zero cases, they do. 

782
00:41:32,700 --> 00:41:35,400
The vaccine in China, they got 
zero cases there. 

783
00:41:35,700 --> 00:41:39,000
They can only get back to 85 90 
percent of their sales if that's

784
00:41:39,000 --> 00:41:40,500
the reality that we're going to 
see. 

785
00:41:40,500 --> 00:41:44,900
Once we started to reopen gonna 
be a big, big disappointment. 

786
00:41:45,100 --> 00:41:48,600
As far as a vaccine goes. 
I just throw out a thought for 

787
00:41:48,600 --> 00:41:50,300
you. 
We just had the Memorial Day 

788
00:41:50,300 --> 00:41:53,500
weekend in the United States and
the big thing about the Memorial

789
00:41:53,500 --> 00:41:57,300
Day weekend in the United States
is lots of examples of people 

790
00:41:57,300 --> 00:42:00,400
that did not social distance 
lots of crowds and beaches. 

791
00:42:00,400 --> 00:42:04,400
Lots of crowds in pools. 
Not wearing masks all within six

792
00:42:04,400 --> 00:42:07,100
feet of each other. 
Another story that we've seen 

793
00:42:07,100 --> 00:42:10,600
two is the testing in the United
States. 

794
00:42:11,000 --> 00:42:14,200
Is now running into an unused 
problem. 

795
00:42:14,200 --> 00:42:18,800
We got a lot more testing than 
we have people that are willing 

796
00:42:18,800 --> 00:42:21,900
to get tested and that they're 
actually now begging people to 

797
00:42:21,900 --> 00:42:25,500
please come and get tested for 
covid and they're not really 

798
00:42:25,500 --> 00:42:28,100
showing up public. 
Doesn't seem to be taking this 

799
00:42:28,100 --> 00:42:29,100
threat. 
Seriously. 

800
00:42:29,100 --> 00:42:32,100
They're all not wearing masks 
breathing on each other and they

801
00:42:32,100 --> 00:42:34,800
can go Street and get a test for
free and they don't even bother 

802
00:42:34,800 --> 00:42:37,300
to do it. 
So I don't know if we come up 

803
00:42:37,300 --> 00:42:39,900
with a vaccine if people are 
going to Care. 

804
00:42:40,000 --> 00:42:41,200
Oh, that's great. 
You got a vaccine. 

805
00:42:41,200 --> 00:42:43,300
I'm not taking it. 
I didn't wear masks. 

806
00:42:43,300 --> 00:42:45,600
I didn't go for a test. 
Why would I bother to take a 

807
00:42:45,600 --> 00:42:47,200
vaccine? 
I'm not going to take it. 

808
00:42:47,400 --> 00:42:51,400
So it seems like I don't know if
that's going to be the Panacea 

809
00:42:51,400 --> 00:42:54,200
that the market thinks it is 
because the market jumps on 

810
00:42:54,200 --> 00:42:58,700
every vaccine story that we see.
I think they seem to think and 

811
00:42:58,700 --> 00:43:02,100
maybe I'm wrong on this that, 
you know, as soon as a vaccine 

812
00:43:02,100 --> 00:43:05,200
is available. 
Bailable if one is available and

813
00:43:05,200 --> 00:43:06,900
I'll give you a fun statistic 
real quick. 

814
00:43:07,300 --> 00:43:10,300
How many coronavirus vaccines 
his medicine developed in 

815
00:43:10,300 --> 00:43:13,600
history? 
0 has never developed one. 

816
00:43:13,600 --> 00:43:15,300
They're very difficult to 
develop. 

817
00:43:15,300 --> 00:43:17,300
Now. 
The bullish argument is well 

818
00:43:17,300 --> 00:43:19,600
with they've never been is 
motivated to do. 

819
00:43:19,600 --> 00:43:22,000
One is they are now. 
Well, I didn't know that it was 

820
00:43:22,000 --> 00:43:24,900
lack of money or lack of will. 
I thought it was, it was very 

821
00:43:24,900 --> 00:43:26,300
complicated to make these 
things. 

822
00:43:26,300 --> 00:43:30,000
But I have this feeling that 
even if they come up with one 

823
00:43:30,200 --> 00:43:32,200
it's going to be met with large 
in. 

824
00:43:33,200 --> 00:43:37,900
Meaning that whatever the 
economy is now in the post virus

825
00:43:37,900 --> 00:43:41,400
period, you can't change it. 
Can't change it with a vaccine. 

826
00:43:41,600 --> 00:43:45,300
We've changed it, and we have to
learn that there's a new post 

827
00:43:45,300 --> 00:43:48,900
virus economy and we have to now
start to understand what that 

828
00:43:48,900 --> 00:43:52,200
is, and what that is. 
It's probably more work at home.

829
00:43:52,500 --> 00:43:55,100
It's probably less 
brick-and-mortar retailing. 

830
00:43:55,400 --> 00:43:58,300
It's a lot of other things that 
we're going to have to learn 

831
00:43:58,500 --> 00:44:02,400
less mass transit, more driving,
that kind of stuff, because 

832
00:44:02,400 --> 00:44:06,700
that's an Social distance thing 
and if we don't like that, if 

833
00:44:06,700 --> 00:44:09,300
that means New York City is a 
loser. 

834
00:44:09,700 --> 00:44:12,600
It's going to be very difficult 
to change that equation. 

835
00:44:12,600 --> 00:44:15,700
If that means commercial, real 
estate people that make Office 

836
00:44:15,700 --> 00:44:19,700
Buildings, are hotels Trump. 
The Trump organization. 

837
00:44:20,200 --> 00:44:23,300
If they're going to be a loser 
in That vaccine isn't going to 

838
00:44:23,300 --> 00:44:25,800
fix that. 
If people are that indifferent 

839
00:44:26,100 --> 00:44:29,900
about this disease, right now, 
we have changed the course of 

840
00:44:29,900 --> 00:44:32,700
the economy to be very difficult
to change it back. 

841
00:44:34,000 --> 00:44:37,500
No, one thing that I've been 
hearing a bunch of times, I 

842
00:44:37,500 --> 00:44:40,200
think, especially like growl 
Powell was like talking a lot 

843
00:44:40,200 --> 00:44:41,500
about that. 
But with a bunch of other 

844
00:44:41,500 --> 00:44:44,800
articles stuff in these two, is 
this idea that okay, you have a 

845
00:44:44,808 --> 00:44:47,900
lot of dollar debt that's held 
outside of the US. 

846
00:44:48,300 --> 00:44:52,200
And then this, you know, they 
were like, revenues from 

847
00:44:52,200 --> 00:44:55,500
businesses or Commodities sales 
or maybe people were investing 

848
00:44:55,500 --> 00:44:58,200
in those countries. 
And those dollars were used to 

849
00:44:58,200 --> 00:45:01,800
pay, you know, the service that 
death and now a lot of that is 

850
00:45:01,800 --> 00:45:03,700
kind of dropped. 
It away. 

851
00:45:04,500 --> 00:45:08,300
And you know, they don't get the
quantitative easing or like the 

852
00:45:08,300 --> 00:45:11,100
FED asset purchases, all over 
the world for like, you know, 

853
00:45:11,100 --> 00:45:13,900
normal businesses and 
governments so that you didn't 

854
00:45:13,900 --> 00:45:18,100
have to sort of shortage of US 
dollar which maybe drives up, 

855
00:45:18,200 --> 00:45:22,100
actually the value of the US 
dollar and creates this big debt

856
00:45:22,100 --> 00:45:25,100
problem. 
What are your thoughts on that? 

857
00:45:25,100 --> 00:45:29,500
And what are your thoughts on? 
Kind of the US dollar as a 

858
00:45:29,500 --> 00:45:32,900
reserve currency in general in 
the longer term? 

859
00:45:34,100 --> 00:45:38,900
So as far as the the dollar goes
keep in mind and I seen Ron 

860
00:45:38,900 --> 00:45:44,000
Paul's comments on this and I 
think he's right on roughly 80% 

861
00:45:44,000 --> 00:45:47,100
of all trade in the world is 
done in dollars. 

862
00:45:47,600 --> 00:45:50,100
So if a Japanese businessman 
meets would have, Brazilian 

863
00:45:50,100 --> 00:45:55,800
businessman to agree to do a 
transaction by Brazilian Wood or

864
00:45:56,100 --> 00:45:57,700
something like that. 
It's done in dollars. 

865
00:45:57,700 --> 00:46:02,200
They negotiate the price 80% of 
the time in dollars. 

866
00:46:03,000 --> 00:46:08,500
So it is the reserve currency, 
when things go south like they 

867
00:46:08,500 --> 00:46:10,400
did in February. 
March, and April. 

868
00:46:11,000 --> 00:46:13,900
What do people say? 
Well, in order to get business 

869
00:46:13,900 --> 00:46:15,500
done. 
I'm going to need dollars. 

870
00:46:16,100 --> 00:46:21,700
And when I am unsure of the 
investment environment, I am 

871
00:46:21,700 --> 00:46:25,100
going to default to the reserve 
currency, which is dollars, 

872
00:46:25,600 --> 00:46:30,000
which is why the dollar rallies 
and to me, that makes perfect 

873
00:46:30,000 --> 00:46:32,000
sense. 
So, when I hear people talk 

874
00:46:32,000 --> 00:46:37,100
about that the doll, Will fall 
against another fiat currency 

875
00:46:38,100 --> 00:46:43,000
the Euro began. 
The one whichever one you wanted

876
00:46:43,000 --> 00:46:47,800
the pound. 
Why why would people then prefer

877
00:46:48,100 --> 00:46:50,100
those currencies over the 
dollar? 

878
00:46:50,700 --> 00:46:54,500
It would only am, I think mean 
that they think that the crisis 

879
00:46:54,500 --> 00:46:58,500
is completely over and it's 
about relative opportunity. 

880
00:46:58,500 --> 00:47:02,100
But if there's any kind of 
concern you want to hide in the 

881
00:47:02,100 --> 00:47:04,700
reserve currency. 
See, so I can see the dollar 

882
00:47:04,700 --> 00:47:06,800
being strong against all the 
Fiats. 

883
00:47:07,200 --> 00:47:11,500
I could see it getting weak 
against something more, stable 

884
00:47:11,500 --> 00:47:14,500
like gold or a crypto, or 
something like that, which is 

885
00:47:14,800 --> 00:47:17,000
somewhat. 
What's been happening as well 

886
00:47:17,000 --> 00:47:18,700
too. 
But I also think that there 

887
00:47:18,900 --> 00:47:23,000
they've got a different problem 
that they're still in, expertly 

888
00:47:23,000 --> 00:47:26,000
linked to the financial system. 
Anyway, you can't get them away 

889
00:47:26,000 --> 00:47:30,500
from the financial system as 
much as you would like to, as 

890
00:47:30,500 --> 00:47:32,800
far as the next Reserve currency
or the dollars use. 

891
00:47:33,000 --> 00:47:35,300
Currency, the dollar is the 
reserve currency because there's

892
00:47:35,300 --> 00:47:39,000
no alternative. 
There is not going to be a Fiat 

893
00:47:39,000 --> 00:47:42,400
alternative. 
The euro is not going to be the 

894
00:47:42,400 --> 00:47:46,300
next Reserve currency. 
The one that you won the Yen, 

895
00:47:46,700 --> 00:47:49,900
the pound, and you take whatever
Fiat you want. 

896
00:47:49,900 --> 00:47:52,000
It's not going to replace the 
dollar. 

897
00:47:52,500 --> 00:47:55,700
I think, what will replace the 
dollar will be a whole new 

898
00:47:55,700 --> 00:47:59,800
structure and that will be a 
global cryptocurrency. 

899
00:48:00,500 --> 00:48:05,600
Now that I've said that because 
I Fiat will not replace the 

900
00:48:05,600 --> 00:48:08,800
dollar. 
I don't think a Fiat crypto, the

901
00:48:08,800 --> 00:48:11,700
Central Bank the People's 
Republic of China bank is going 

902
00:48:11,700 --> 00:48:15,000
to print a crypto and that's 
going to be it or the year or 

903
00:48:15,000 --> 00:48:19,100
the digital euro is going to be.
Well, the paper one would be it 

904
00:48:19,100 --> 00:48:23,500
if they were going to do that as
well too, but I'm not sure it's 

905
00:48:23,500 --> 00:48:26,700
going to be Bitcoin or it's 
going to be ether or it's going 

906
00:48:26,700 --> 00:48:30,100
to be stable coin or one of 
those other ones Maybe. 

907
00:48:30,300 --> 00:48:34,100
It doesn't exist yet. 
But I do think that it will come

908
00:48:34,100 --> 00:48:37,700
out of that space. 
That will be the next Reserve 

909
00:48:37,900 --> 00:48:40,400
currency. 
I had it for a hot second. 

910
00:48:40,400 --> 00:48:43,800
I thought it might be Libra. 
It looked like it was very 

911
00:48:43,800 --> 00:48:46,100
promising, but it kind of 
stumbled out of the gates. 

912
00:48:46,400 --> 00:48:49,600
Dave, Marcus left in there. 
Trying to reorient the thing. 

913
00:48:49,900 --> 00:48:52,500
We'll have to see where that 
goes as well too. 

914
00:48:52,500 --> 00:48:55,200
And the last thought for you 
about this and let me speak to 

915
00:48:55,200 --> 00:49:00,300
the Americans in the crowd here.
If you travel the world, you 

916
00:49:00,300 --> 00:49:04,800
will see the digital payments 
wiping your phone using your 

917
00:49:04,800 --> 00:49:06,800
iPad. 
Your Apple watch. 

918
00:49:06,800 --> 00:49:09,200
Like I'm I love to use as well 
too. 

919
00:49:09,600 --> 00:49:11,500
Is much more popular in the rest
of the world. 

920
00:49:11,500 --> 00:49:15,000
Em pay. 
Some in Kenya is a digital 

921
00:49:15,000 --> 00:49:18,200
payment system. 
That is very popular. 

922
00:49:18,600 --> 00:49:23,500
There are villages in Kenya, 
where they live in dirt floor, 

923
00:49:23,500 --> 00:49:27,300
Hut's middle of the hot in the 
middle of the village is a Honda

924
00:49:28,100 --> 00:49:31,600
Charging, a hundred phones 
overnight and do subsistence 

925
00:49:31,600 --> 00:49:33,600
Farmers when they have to send 
money to each other. 

926
00:49:33,700 --> 00:49:36,100
They send it with their phones 
to each other. 

927
00:49:36,600 --> 00:49:40,900
It's digital payments in the, in
the developing world, and in 

928
00:49:40,900 --> 00:49:44,400
Europe is much farther ahead 
than it is in the United States.

929
00:49:44,900 --> 00:49:49,900
So if you come up with a Global 
Currency, a global crypto that 

930
00:49:49,900 --> 00:49:53,700
satisfies the needs of a payment
system. 

931
00:49:54,200 --> 00:49:57,300
Yeah, you could go to a bunch of
Millennials in a coffee shop. 

932
00:49:57,400 --> 00:50:00,100
Shop in New York City, they'll 
marry be interested in it. 

933
00:50:00,300 --> 00:50:03,500
Go ask some people in Nebraska 
in a Walmart and they won't know

934
00:50:03,500 --> 00:50:05,200
what the hell you're talking 
about. 

935
00:50:05,700 --> 00:50:09,100
But if you go to a hot or you go
to a small village in, Kenya 

936
00:50:09,300 --> 00:50:12,700
there already for it right now 
you go to a lot of other places,

937
00:50:12,700 --> 00:50:15,700
they're ready for it. 
So it won't start in the u.s. 

938
00:50:15,800 --> 00:50:19,200
It will start everywhere else 
and it will be pushed upon the 

939
00:50:19,200 --> 00:50:22,200
us as far as the. 
As far as the crypto. 

940
00:50:22,300 --> 00:50:25,700
The world is ready for it is 
getting involved with digital 

941
00:50:25,700 --> 00:50:28,500
payments. 
It just But he needs to develop 

942
00:50:28,500 --> 00:50:31,700
the structure to replace the 
dollar for it again. 

943
00:50:31,700 --> 00:50:33,500
Let me emphasize it doesn't 
exist. 

944
00:50:33,500 --> 00:50:36,000
Now. 
I don't know if that if that 

945
00:50:36,100 --> 00:50:41,500
crypto is out there yet if it's 
Uther or something else and it's

946
00:50:41,500 --> 00:50:44,500
not going to happen imminently, 
but that's where I think we go 

947
00:50:44,500 --> 00:50:48,000
with this story. 
Some Curious here. 

948
00:50:48,800 --> 00:50:50,500
What do you think? 
When you look at something like 

949
00:50:50,500 --> 00:50:52,500
Bitcoin? 
What do you what? 

950
00:50:52,500 --> 00:50:55,800
Characteristics of Bitcoin you 
think make it kind of like 

951
00:50:55,800 --> 00:51:00,900
suited for fulfilling that role?
And in what regards you think? 

952
00:51:00,900 --> 00:51:02,600
Okay. 
No, these are big problems. 

953
00:51:02,600 --> 00:51:06,100
And something that actually 
fulfills her troll has like what

954
00:51:06,100 --> 00:51:10,400
would have to look like? 
The biggest problem will be 

955
00:51:10,400 --> 00:51:12,100
coin. 
It's been more smoothly compared

956
00:51:12,100 --> 00:51:14,400
to Gold. 
I think the biggest problem 

957
00:51:14,400 --> 00:51:19,200
Bitcoin has is 21. 
It's not a stable value of, it's

958
00:51:19,200 --> 00:51:25,400
not a stable value. 
I own Bitcoin and I can't use it

959
00:51:25,500 --> 00:51:30,800
to agree to do payments in a 
Fiat world when its value, can 

960
00:51:30,800 --> 00:51:33,000
jump around 10 or 20 percent a 
day. 

961
00:51:33,500 --> 00:51:37,300
If I have to buy my Brazilian 
Wood in a month. 

962
00:51:37,900 --> 00:51:40,900
Not going to use a currency that
could be 50% higher, fifty 

963
00:51:40,900 --> 00:51:43,400
percent lower in a month to pay 
for it. 

964
00:51:43,400 --> 00:51:46,800
I can't agree to that price. 
And if I, and if I'm taking it 

965
00:51:46,800 --> 00:51:50,100
to the dollar, and just saying, 
whatever, the, the Bitcoin 

966
00:51:50,100 --> 00:51:53,800
exchange rate is at that minute.
Well, then it's I'm still on the

967
00:51:53,800 --> 00:51:56,900
dollar base and I really haven't
gotten away from the dollar base

968
00:51:57,300 --> 00:51:58,800
as well. 
To the other problem Bitcoin 

969
00:51:58,800 --> 00:52:02,200
has, is that it can't handle 
tens of millions of 

970
00:52:02,200 --> 00:52:03,500
transactions. 
A minute. 

971
00:52:03,800 --> 00:52:07,100
There's not enough electricity 
on the planet in order to handle

972
00:52:07,100 --> 00:52:09,600
that kind. 
Of transactional volume that you

973
00:52:09,600 --> 00:52:14,000
would want if you were going to 
become a true payment system as 

974
00:52:14,000 --> 00:52:17,200
well too, but these are known 
problems in. 

975
00:52:17,200 --> 00:52:21,500
These are problems, people are 
working on to try and solve. 

976
00:52:21,800 --> 00:52:25,700
So what I think you need is 
something is got a more stable 

977
00:52:25,700 --> 00:52:28,900
value. 
You know, my dollar my pocket is

978
00:52:28,900 --> 00:52:32,700
going to be worth. 
I can buy with it today when I 

979
00:52:32,700 --> 00:52:35,200
can buy with it next month with 
which I can buy with it next 

980
00:52:35,200 --> 00:52:39,600
year plus or minus 1%. 
Or 2% at the most next year. 

981
00:52:39,600 --> 00:52:42,500
I have this belief. 
I want inflation's going to do 

982
00:52:42,500 --> 00:52:43,600
it. 
I might be off by one or two 

983
00:52:43,600 --> 00:52:46,100
percent. 
I'm not going to be off by 200% 

984
00:52:46,400 --> 00:52:48,800
as well. 
So if you know some kind of 

985
00:52:48,800 --> 00:52:51,900
stable value with it, and the 
other thing, it needs to be able

986
00:52:51,900 --> 00:52:57,800
to do is handle Mass amounts of 
payments, you know, efficiently 

987
00:52:57,900 --> 00:53:02,800
in safely and for very little 
money Bitcoin, can't really do 

988
00:53:02,800 --> 00:53:05,900
that right now. 
The mining costs are way too 

989
00:53:05,900 --> 00:53:12,100
high, but Is 1.0 of this whole 
exercise and it's done an 

990
00:53:12,100 --> 00:53:15,500
extraordinary job of what it 
was, but we need to move in the 

991
00:53:15,500 --> 00:53:18,100
other direction. 
When I, I like to use the 

992
00:53:18,100 --> 00:53:21,800
analogy that when the internet 
first came on, in the early 

993
00:53:21,800 --> 00:53:23,900
Citrus search engine, you had 
Alta Vista. 

994
00:53:23,900 --> 00:53:28,200
You had like hoes, they all went
bankrupt and then you had Yahoo,

995
00:53:28,400 --> 00:53:33,600
which was very successful. 
As far as search engine goes, is

996
00:53:33,600 --> 00:53:35,800
the fastest company make the S&P
500 ever. 

997
00:53:36,200 --> 00:53:38,600
Then you got Google and that 
changed everything. 

998
00:53:39,100 --> 00:53:43,500
So you're kind of like in the 
Altavista like ozera in the 

999
00:53:43,900 --> 00:53:47,600
crypto space and you're hoping 
that we're going to get to the 

1000
00:53:47,600 --> 00:53:50,800
Yahoo thing soon. 
But really when we got to get to

1001
00:53:50,800 --> 00:53:53,800
is to Google thing and when we 
get to the Google of cryptos 

1002
00:53:53,800 --> 00:53:56,100
dead and that becomes the 
reserve currency and it changes 

1003
00:53:56,100 --> 00:54:01,600
everything and that becomes the 
thing that makes it all 

1004
00:54:01,600 --> 00:54:05,200
different. 
Yeah, I would tend to agree with

1005
00:54:05,200 --> 00:54:06,500
that. 
Generally. 

1006
00:54:06,500 --> 00:54:11,700
I think that if there is a 
challenger Reserve currency, 

1007
00:54:11,700 --> 00:54:15,200
that looks nothing like what 
we've seen in terms of Reserve 

1008
00:54:15,200 --> 00:54:17,700
currencies over like the history
of Economics, right? 

1009
00:54:17,900 --> 00:54:22,300
It would probably come from 
something, similar to Libra with

1010
00:54:22,300 --> 00:54:26,800
an existing user base with 
large, tech companies behind it.

1011
00:54:27,000 --> 00:54:31,400
And I could definitely see a 
future where central banks 

1012
00:54:31,600 --> 00:54:36,000
themselves. 
Elves are are disrupted by this 

1013
00:54:36,000 --> 00:54:39,100
new system. 
So much like Google has 

1014
00:54:39,100 --> 00:54:42,900
disrupted publishing Spotify, 
has this type of the music 

1015
00:54:42,900 --> 00:54:47,100
industry and Netflix excetera. 
And you know, I could very much 

1016
00:54:47,100 --> 00:54:50,500
see a future where government 
start basically delegating their

1017
00:54:50,500 --> 00:54:55,200
monetary policy to and their 
money to some kind of a Libra 

1018
00:54:55,200 --> 00:54:59,700
like platform. 
Is that something that you think

1019
00:54:59,700 --> 00:55:02,900
makes sense in this context? 
Or is that like a Hopefully, you

1020
00:55:02,908 --> 00:55:04,800
know, I think that that's 
exactly what it is. 

1021
00:55:04,800 --> 00:55:09,200
You know, what disrupt Central 
Banking is, you know, every 

1022
00:55:09,500 --> 00:55:14,000
industry that gets disrupted. 
The industry itself has a 

1023
00:55:14,000 --> 00:55:17,900
monopoly newspaper industry at a
monopoly on information, you 

1024
00:55:17,900 --> 00:55:22,000
know, the retailing industry had
a monopoly on the transportation

1025
00:55:22,000 --> 00:55:24,300
of goods and services as well 
too. 

1026
00:55:24,300 --> 00:55:26,400
And then something comes in and 
breaks their Monopoly. 

1027
00:55:26,400 --> 00:55:31,100
Well, the central bank has a 
monopoly on money and as long as

1028
00:55:31,100 --> 00:55:34,400
they hold that Monopoly, Money. 
They have this incredible sway 

1029
00:55:34,400 --> 00:55:37,900
over everybody. 
Once they're that Monopoly of 

1030
00:55:37,900 --> 00:55:42,000
money is broken, and they lose 
that ability, then you've 

1031
00:55:42,000 --> 00:55:44,000
changed. 
And then you've marginalized the

1032
00:55:44,000 --> 00:55:46,900
central bank's. 
That's why I found it. 

1033
00:55:47,400 --> 00:55:51,000
Not a surprise that when 
Facebook announced the Libra 

1034
00:55:51,000 --> 00:55:55,000
thing Congress lost its mind. 
And the first thing they did was

1035
00:55:55,000 --> 00:55:58,300
they brought Dave Marcus up to 
the hill and they started ruling

1036
00:55:58,300 --> 00:56:00,900
him and going crazy over this 
idea. 

1037
00:56:00,900 --> 00:56:03,200
Yeah, because it's a more. 
Threat. 

1038
00:56:03,200 --> 00:56:07,200
It's a mortal threat to the way 
that business is done in this 

1039
00:56:07,200 --> 00:56:11,500
era of the fiat currency run by 
the central bank, and they don't

1040
00:56:11,500 --> 00:56:15,800
like this idea at all the thing 
that made Libra. 

1041
00:56:15,800 --> 00:56:18,600
So interesting. 
And I love to quote Scott 

1042
00:56:18,600 --> 00:56:22,000
Galloway to Professor New York 
University on this is, he says, 

1043
00:56:22,000 --> 00:56:26,000
I'll remind you that there is 
2.2 billion Christians on the 

1044
00:56:26,000 --> 00:56:29,400
planet. 
And there's 2.3 billion Facebook

1045
00:56:29,400 --> 00:56:32,300
accounts on the planet, Facebook
is more popular than Chris. 

1046
00:56:32,400 --> 00:56:35,300
Gianna T. 
So that the minute that it has a

1047
00:56:35,300 --> 00:56:39,000
payment system, it can start 
with a user base larger than 

1048
00:56:39,000 --> 00:56:44,300
Christianity to get it going, 
that is enormously powerful for 

1049
00:56:44,300 --> 00:56:47,000
something like that. 
And that is what a lot of these 

1050
00:56:47,000 --> 00:56:53,500
Tech Giants have, is they have 
these enormous basis of people 

1051
00:56:53,500 --> 00:56:56,700
that can immediately start 
something like start using 

1052
00:56:56,700 --> 00:56:59,200
something like that. 
The game changer, that will tell

1053
00:56:59,200 --> 00:57:00,800
you that a crypto is here to 
stay. 

1054
00:57:01,000 --> 00:57:05,000
It's going to be Amazon Prime. 
Sixty percent 60 percent of the 

1055
00:57:05,000 --> 00:57:09,000
American households have a Prime
account the minute that they can

1056
00:57:09,000 --> 00:57:14,100
start paying for that stuff with
a crypto untethered from the US 

1057
00:57:14,100 --> 00:57:17,000
dollar is the day that the u.s. 
Dollars going to lose. 

1058
00:57:17,000 --> 00:57:20,100
Its Cruiser, not that day, but 
it's on the road to losing its 

1059
00:57:20,100 --> 00:57:24,900
Reserve currency status that, 
Amazon holds that power, what's 

1060
00:57:24,900 --> 00:57:26,700
holding you back Amazon, from 
doing it. 

1061
00:57:26,700 --> 00:57:28,600
There's not an acceptable 
alternative. 

1062
00:57:28,800 --> 00:57:32,100
There's too much Financial Risk 
for Amazon to take. 

1063
00:57:32,100 --> 00:57:36,200
I think Bitcoin or ether as 
they're currently structured, 

1064
00:57:36,200 --> 00:57:40,100
but I have no doubt that when 
one comes down or maybe Bitcoin 

1065
00:57:40,100 --> 00:57:43,500
or ether, they have some Fork 
that gets them there. 

1066
00:57:43,800 --> 00:57:47,100
That is going, you know that 
they've remade their product or 

1067
00:57:47,100 --> 00:57:51,100
their currency crypto into what 
they needed to be that people. 

1068
00:57:51,100 --> 00:57:55,100
Like them will jump on top of it
and the telegrams and the, 

1069
00:57:55,100 --> 00:57:58,800
what's apps and the Facebook's. 
They'll all start accepting it 

1070
00:57:58,800 --> 00:58:02,300
and start using their platforms 
as mediums of Exchange. 

1071
00:58:02,500 --> 00:58:04,700
Well to it, it will come very 
fast. 

1072
00:58:04,700 --> 00:58:07,700
And like I said, the third 
world, they're already there 

1073
00:58:07,700 --> 00:58:10,100
with krita with digital payments
as well. 

1074
00:58:10,200 --> 00:58:12,600
So it could come. 
We just don't have the so we 

1075
00:58:12,600 --> 00:58:15,600
don't have the structure yet and
they're trying to get it going 

1076
00:58:15,600 --> 00:58:17,500
right now and we'll see how long
it takes. 

1077
00:58:17,500 --> 00:58:20,600
It might still take several more
years before it happens. 

1078
00:58:20,700 --> 00:58:22,700
Sounds like there's an 
opportunity for the Vatican here

1079
00:58:22,700 --> 00:58:27,700
to get on the crypto train 
starts on currency before 

1080
00:58:27,700 --> 00:58:30,400
Facebook gets to it. 
I think there's some interesting

1081
00:58:30,400 --> 00:58:32,900
analogies with tech Monopoly. 
He's here. 

1082
00:58:32,900 --> 00:58:38,100
And I wonder if, if we go into 
this direction where there are 

1083
00:58:38,100 --> 00:58:42,400
sort of Challenger currencies, 
there are these new currencies 

1084
00:58:42,400 --> 00:58:45,300
that exist that aren't tied to 
governments. 

1085
00:58:45,300 --> 00:58:46,800
Well, okay. 
Well, that first of all, it's 

1086
00:58:46,800 --> 00:58:49,700
very much challenges. 
The power of nation-states I 

1087
00:58:49,700 --> 00:58:52,500
think for one, but the other 
thing too is you mean, we may 

1088
00:58:52,500 --> 00:58:56,100
see similar dynamics that play 
out like in Tech, right? 

1089
00:58:56,100 --> 00:59:00,000
Like so, you know, there are, 
you know, Facebook obviously has

1090
00:59:00,500 --> 00:59:03,100
massive user base, but so does 
Twitter and so Instagram, okay, 

1091
00:59:03,100 --> 00:59:06,600
they're owned by Facebook, but 
isn't one clear player and one 

1092
00:59:06,600 --> 00:59:09,400
clear winner, you know, Amazon 
could do its own currency. 

1093
00:59:09,400 --> 00:59:12,100
Facebook, could do its own 
currency by do or, you know, 

1094
00:59:12,100 --> 00:59:14,600
whatever platforms exist in 
China, could do their own 

1095
00:59:14,600 --> 00:59:16,100
currency and sure. 
At some point you're going to 

1096
00:59:16,100 --> 00:59:19,800
have aggregation and there might
be consolidation there, but we 

1097
00:59:19,800 --> 00:59:22,800
may end up in a situation where 
these things end up competing 

1098
00:59:22,800 --> 00:59:24,700
against each other. 
Like, this is something we're 

1099
00:59:24,700 --> 00:59:26,900
talking about earlier, you know,
we don't know, none of us could 

1100
00:59:26,900 --> 00:59:29,500
figure out whether or not there 
have ever been, you know, 

1101
00:59:29,500 --> 00:59:32,100
multiple Reserve currencies 
competing against each other in 

1102
00:59:32,100 --> 00:59:35,000
the past. 
Past it may be that this opens 

1103
00:59:35,000 --> 00:59:37,700
up competition for currencies in
a way that we haven't ever seen 

1104
00:59:37,700 --> 00:59:41,700
before. 
Oh, I definitely think that's a 

1105
00:59:41,700 --> 00:59:45,600
possibility in you, right? 
I don't think I can't find a 

1106
00:59:45,607 --> 00:59:49,400
period in the past where you've 
had multiple Reserve currencies.

1107
00:59:49,800 --> 00:59:52,700
You mean, you probably have to 
go back to, you know, before you

1108
00:59:52,700 --> 00:59:56,300
even had the concept of currency
or something like that, but you 

1109
00:59:56,300 --> 01:00:00,000
could have some loose 
Confederation of these as well 

1110
01:00:00,000 --> 01:00:02,700
too, but I do think what we're 
talking about. 

1111
01:00:02,700 --> 01:00:06,300
What you were suggesting is 
they're all outside the hand of 

1112
01:00:06,300 --> 01:00:09,100
the government. 
And when they are outside of the

1113
01:00:09,100 --> 01:00:12,700
hand of the government, first of
all, the government will have to

1114
01:00:12,700 --> 01:00:16,100
admit radically change, not only
does the Central Bank lose but 

1115
01:00:16,100 --> 01:00:17,600
the government loses as well 
too. 

1116
01:00:17,600 --> 01:00:21,500
Because in that environment, how
do we tax people? 

1117
01:00:21,500 --> 01:00:24,000
Now, we tax people on money. 
We tax people, I didn't come. 

1118
01:00:24,900 --> 01:00:28,700
If you have a, if you have a 
digitally secured outside the 

1119
01:00:28,700 --> 01:00:31,800
government Krypto that they 
can't touch. 

1120
01:00:32,200 --> 01:00:34,800
They can go to a guy with a big 
house with lots of cars on his 

1121
01:00:35,300 --> 01:00:38,000
on his driveway and they can At 
him. 

1122
01:00:38,300 --> 01:00:40,700
And they could come to the 
conclusion that he has no money 

1123
01:00:41,300 --> 01:00:45,100
because they are incapable of 
getting to the accounts. 

1124
01:00:45,100 --> 01:00:47,600
Getting passed his encryption to
see. 

1125
01:00:47,600 --> 01:00:50,500
It government will have to 
change the way that it raises 

1126
01:00:50,500 --> 01:00:52,800
money. 
It might have to go to a use tax

1127
01:00:53,100 --> 01:00:57,100
as opposed to an income tax. 
A use tax is if you have a car 

1128
01:00:57,300 --> 01:00:59,100
we're going to charge you X to 
use it a year. 

1129
01:00:59,100 --> 01:01:01,600
If you have a painting on your 
wall, we're going to charge you 

1130
01:01:01,600 --> 01:01:04,800
why for it. 
I use tax as well. 

1131
01:01:05,000 --> 01:01:07,000
So yeah, we're going to have to 
see. 

1132
01:01:07,400 --> 01:01:09,800
Things change and along those 
ways. 

1133
01:01:10,000 --> 01:01:13,200
We could definitely see multiple
currencies along those lines. 

1134
01:01:13,200 --> 01:01:17,200
This is the reason that this is,
this is such an interesting 

1135
01:01:17,200 --> 01:01:18,700
topic. 
We talked so much about it. 

1136
01:01:18,700 --> 01:01:21,000
Is, this isn't just shifting 
from the pound. 

1137
01:01:21,000 --> 01:01:25,200
The dollar, this is going to be 
changing the very structure of 

1138
01:01:25,200 --> 01:01:28,500
government and everything else. 
So in our earlier conversation, 

1139
01:01:28,500 --> 01:01:32,500
when we were talking about Ubi 
and when we were talking about, 

1140
01:01:32,500 --> 01:01:37,200
you know, six hundred bucks a 
week for unemployment that 

1141
01:01:37,400 --> 01:01:41,400
Because the government has 
control over its own currency 

1142
01:01:41,700 --> 01:01:46,300
and can create that money to 
give to people and in future 

1143
01:01:46,300 --> 01:01:49,000
environment, when there's 
another pandemic, that causes a 

1144
01:01:49,000 --> 01:01:53,500
shutdown and you have a global 
crypto as your reserve. 

1145
01:01:53,800 --> 01:01:58,800
They can't just make that money 
out of thin air at that point in

1146
01:01:58,800 --> 01:02:02,400
order to satisfy these needs. 
So a lot of things are going to 

1147
01:02:02,400 --> 01:02:05,400
have to change along the way. 
And that's what makes everybody 

1148
01:02:05,400 --> 01:02:09,000
very nervous about it because 
Cuz like I was using with my 

1149
01:02:09,000 --> 01:02:13,400
example with technology and 
jobs, I understand how I lose. 

1150
01:02:13,800 --> 01:02:20,000
One, this new technology come. 
It's murky how I win with this 

1151
01:02:20,000 --> 01:02:22,900
new technology. 
It's not clear to me when the 

1152
01:02:22,900 --> 01:02:26,300
iPhone was made that that was 
the end of the taxi industry. 

1153
01:02:26,300 --> 01:02:29,300
It was clear to me that there 
were going to be some jobs that 

1154
01:02:29,300 --> 01:02:32,400
were going to be lost and that's
the same thing here as well, 

1155
01:02:32,400 --> 01:02:34,500
too. 
Totally. 

1156
01:02:34,600 --> 01:02:39,200
Well, I would love to talk a bit
about the topic that, you know, 

1157
01:02:39,200 --> 01:02:43,100
since when I became interested 
in Bitcoin, in 13, there was 

1158
01:02:43,100 --> 01:02:46,300
already, you know, the beginning
of this bubble back. 

1159
01:02:46,300 --> 01:02:51,400
Then we're Bitcoin went from 
like $50 to, you know, over a 

1160
01:02:51,400 --> 01:02:54,800
thousand. 
And there I remember there was 

1161
01:02:54,800 --> 01:02:59,500
this this sort of expect and of 
people will recognize that it's 

1162
01:02:59,500 --> 01:03:03,500
Bitcoins going to be a big thing
and then they will realize Oh, 

1163
01:03:03,700 --> 01:03:07,800
it comes back is very valuable. 
So I should get some now right 

1164
01:03:07,800 --> 01:03:10,700
before that happens, and it will
become this kind of asset class 

1165
01:03:10,700 --> 01:03:12,300
like gold. 
So I think it was already that 

1166
01:03:12,300 --> 01:03:16,400
the idea there and that idea 
that it will become part of, you

1167
01:03:16,400 --> 01:03:20,500
know, sort of every Investment 
Portfolio and that, of course, I

1168
01:03:20,500 --> 01:03:24,300
didn't happen back then. 
Then there was, you know, this 

1169
01:03:24,300 --> 01:03:32,300
bubble in 2017 18 and it again 
didn't really happen then and, 

1170
01:03:32,400 --> 01:03:35,600
you know, I think We are sort of
an in similar Point again where 

1171
01:03:35,600 --> 01:03:38,700
people are expecting that or 
this will happen. 

1172
01:03:38,700 --> 01:03:41,200
And you know, now you have 
custodians and certainly there 

1173
01:03:41,200 --> 01:03:44,700
has been some influx from you 
know, from institutional 

1174
01:03:44,700 --> 01:03:50,100
investors and from funds. 
But how where do you see that? 

1175
01:03:50,100 --> 01:03:54,500
You think crypto and Bitcoin is 
becoming kind of like an asset 

1176
01:03:54,500 --> 01:03:59,600
class that, you know, is part of
sort of a any responsible 

1177
01:03:59,600 --> 01:04:02,200
portfolio. 
How is that going to happen? 

1178
01:04:02,200 --> 01:04:03,700
And where are we? 
In that. 

1179
01:04:04,700 --> 01:04:07,400
We're in early stages. 
I think really what, what a 

1180
01:04:07,400 --> 01:04:12,900
crypto needs in order to become 
a true asset class is a function

1181
01:04:12,900 --> 01:04:16,400
on itself outside of the dollar.
In other words, what I mean by 

1182
01:04:16,400 --> 01:04:18,200
that? 
Is I own a bunch of a crypto 

1183
01:04:18,300 --> 01:04:21,700
ether Bitcoin, fill in the blank
and it goes up a lot. 

1184
01:04:22,300 --> 01:04:23,900
How do I know that I've made 
money? 

1185
01:04:24,300 --> 01:04:28,000
Because I can convert it back to
dollars at a much greater value.

1186
01:04:28,400 --> 01:04:33,800
I still need the Fiat in that 
system, in order for it to work.

1187
01:04:33,900 --> 01:04:36,900
Work when it really becomes it's
true. 

1188
01:04:36,900 --> 01:04:39,700
And at the same is true for Real
Estate or gold. 

1189
01:04:39,800 --> 01:04:43,800
I mean, maybe land you can grow 
stuff but in their case is real 

1190
01:04:43,800 --> 01:04:46,500
estate gold stocks and 
everything else. 

1191
01:04:47,100 --> 01:04:49,800
They are part of the Fiat 
system. 

1192
01:04:49,800 --> 01:04:52,100
They are part of it. 
They were developed 

1193
01:04:52,100 --> 01:04:55,600
specifically, as part of it, a 
crypto is supposed to be outside

1194
01:04:55,600 --> 01:04:57,800
of it. 
It's not supposed to be another 

1195
01:04:57,800 --> 01:05:00,100
version of a crypto. 
One of the arguments. 

1196
01:05:00,500 --> 01:05:02,200
Let me point to this. 
We one of the arguments people 

1197
01:05:02,200 --> 01:05:03,800
have asked me is why didn't 
goal. 

1198
01:05:04,000 --> 01:05:06,400
Go up a lot more. 
I went up some, but why didn't 

1199
01:05:06,400 --> 01:05:10,200
go go up a lot more in March. 
And when the, when the stock 

1200
01:05:10,200 --> 01:05:12,800
market was falling apart. 
And I said, I believe part of 

1201
01:05:12,800 --> 01:05:16,600
the problem with gold is I look 
at gold and I think this is a 

1202
01:05:16,600 --> 01:05:19,600
way to get my money out of the 
financial system, but I really 

1203
01:05:19,600 --> 01:05:22,500
can't get my money out, you 
know, and everybody winds up, 

1204
01:05:22,500 --> 01:05:27,800
buying gold by buying GLD the 
big ETF on gold and is used to 

1205
01:05:27,808 --> 01:05:29,800
joke. 
Well, then by Tesla, because 

1206
01:05:29,800 --> 01:05:31,800
you're still stuck in the 
financials of, you're buying 

1207
01:05:31,800 --> 01:05:34,500
something on the New York Stock 
Exchange and your Still stuck in

1208
01:05:34,500 --> 01:05:38,000
the same Financial system that 
you worried about buying GLD. 

1209
01:05:38,200 --> 01:05:40,500
If you really want to get out of
the system, you got to buy coins

1210
01:05:40,500 --> 01:05:41,800
and burying them in your 
backyard. 

1211
01:05:42,100 --> 01:05:45,700
Well, the price of physical gold
is up, but not nearly. 

1212
01:05:45,700 --> 01:05:47,500
That's hard to do. 
Nobody knows how to do it. 

1213
01:05:47,500 --> 01:05:49,800
No one wants to do it. 
They're not that big a prepper 

1214
01:05:50,100 --> 01:05:53,100
and stuff like that. 
So gold has been trapped by too 

1215
01:05:53,100 --> 01:05:56,800
much paper gold and that it's in
the financial system. 

1216
01:05:56,800 --> 01:05:59,400
It's part of the financial 
system itself that if the 

1217
01:05:59,400 --> 01:06:02,900
financial system had a problem, 
gold has a problem. 

1218
01:06:03,200 --> 01:06:06,600
Well, The same thing is kind of 
what's happening with with a 

1219
01:06:06,600 --> 01:06:09,500
crypto. 
I can own a bunch of Bitcoin and

1220
01:06:09,500 --> 01:06:13,800
if the financial system goes to 
hell, it doesn't do me any good.

1221
01:06:14,000 --> 01:06:15,800
Now stocks and gold and real 
estate. 

1222
01:06:15,800 --> 01:06:18,400
Were designed. 
I mean, not gold but real estate

1223
01:06:18,400 --> 01:06:21,200
and stocks and stuff. 
They're designed to be part of 

1224
01:06:21,207 --> 01:06:24,800
that system cryptos deciding to 
be separate from that system, 

1225
01:06:24,800 --> 01:06:29,100
but it can only get so far away 
from it because you need to go 

1226
01:06:29,100 --> 01:06:31,200
back to it. 
In order for it to ultimately 

1227
01:06:31,200 --> 01:06:33,800
work, just like you seen the 
problems with coinbase. 

1228
01:06:33,900 --> 01:06:37,000
As you know, when the, when the 
IRS comes in and says, we're 

1229
01:06:37,000 --> 01:06:38,900
going to tax all the accounts 
and stuff like that. 

1230
01:06:38,900 --> 01:06:41,300
It destroys their business 
because it can't get away from 

1231
01:06:41,300 --> 01:06:43,700
it. 
Got to get away from it in order

1232
01:06:43,700 --> 01:06:47,800
for it to really Thrive, and 
we're sort of kind of getting 

1233
01:06:47,800 --> 01:06:52,200
there, but the last couple of 
years after 2017. 

1234
01:06:52,200 --> 01:06:55,400
It really stalled. 
There hasn't been, you know, I 

1235
01:06:55,400 --> 01:06:59,700
own a bunch of Bitcoin other 
than exchange it to dollars. 

1236
01:07:00,200 --> 01:07:03,800
What can I, what can and of 
course by other cryptos with it?

1237
01:07:04,000 --> 01:07:06,600
But beyond that, what can I do 
with it? 

1238
01:07:06,800 --> 01:07:08,600
Can I buy a car with? 
It can buy home with it? 

1239
01:07:08,600 --> 01:07:11,500
Can I buy an investment with it?
No, not really. 

1240
01:07:11,500 --> 01:07:14,500
There's a couple of one-off 
examples here or there but it's 

1241
01:07:14,500 --> 01:07:17,400
not widespread and it's not a 
bit cutest. 

1242
01:07:17,700 --> 01:07:20,700
I agree with the premise, but I 
don't necessarily agree that 

1243
01:07:20,800 --> 01:07:23,600
we're getting there in terms of 
getting away from the system 

1244
01:07:23,600 --> 01:07:27,300
because like crypto is just 
becoming more and more of a I 

1245
01:07:27,300 --> 01:07:29,900
guess I can institutional thing 
where you need to K YC and you 

1246
01:07:29,900 --> 01:07:33,000
have custodians and they're 
being regulated and like here in

1247
01:07:33,000 --> 01:07:33,700
France. 
We have all this. 

1248
01:07:33,900 --> 01:07:36,900
Regulation for like regularly 
and custodians, or anybody who 

1249
01:07:36,900 --> 01:07:40,400
sells crypto or even now, you 
know, in Europe in a couple of 

1250
01:07:40,408 --> 01:07:41,800
years. 
It's likely that we'll have even

1251
01:07:41,800 --> 01:07:44,900
kyc for crypto to crypto 
exchange, which we haven't had 

1252
01:07:44,900 --> 01:07:46,300
previously. 
Yeah. 

1253
01:07:46,300 --> 01:07:50,600
I don't know how crypto gets 
away from from the system as you

1254
01:07:50,600 --> 01:07:53,300
as you put it. 
How about it just creates its 

1255
01:07:53,300 --> 01:07:55,700
own system. 
It creates a parallel system 

1256
01:07:55,700 --> 01:07:58,700
that it doesn't rely on the Fiat
system. 

1257
01:07:59,100 --> 01:08:02,700
But you know, if you want a 
crypto, to be the reserve 

1258
01:08:02,700 --> 01:08:05,800
currency. 
It's got to have its own 

1259
01:08:05,800 --> 01:08:09,800
parallel system so that it 
doesn't need the dollar anymore.

1260
01:08:10,200 --> 01:08:14,400
But if it's always going to be 
the needs that Fiat reserved, 

1261
01:08:14,400 --> 01:08:15,800
then we're never going to get 
rid of it. 

1262
01:08:15,800 --> 01:08:17,899
We're never going to get rid of 
the dollar as the reserve 

1263
01:08:17,899 --> 01:08:21,200
currency and no other Fiat at 
this point. 

1264
01:08:21,200 --> 01:08:23,700
Looks like it's ever going to 
supplant the dollar. 

1265
01:08:24,100 --> 01:08:25,700
Yeah. 
We see that a little bit in 

1266
01:08:25,700 --> 01:08:26,600
defy. 
Right? 

1267
01:08:26,600 --> 01:08:31,300
Like defy I think is trying to 
build an alternative system, but

1268
01:08:31,300 --> 01:08:36,600
at the moment it feels just so. 
Early and I fail to see like the

1269
01:08:36,600 --> 01:08:40,100
real value in what Defy is 
building except for interesting 

1270
01:08:40,100 --> 01:08:44,100
Financial experiments. 
I agree that, you know, there 

1271
01:08:44,100 --> 01:08:46,700
are a lot of interesting things 
that are going on. 

1272
01:08:47,100 --> 01:08:49,200
I guess really, really what it 
is? 

1273
01:08:49,200 --> 01:08:52,399
Is it what is it that we really 
want? 

1274
01:08:53,000 --> 01:08:57,500
I think what we really need is a
medium of exchange, you know, a 

1275
01:08:57,500 --> 01:09:00,500
payment system, a the, you know,
others would argue. 

1276
01:09:00,500 --> 01:09:03,500
No, we need to store value. 
We need to store a value outside

1277
01:09:03,500 --> 01:09:08,000
of the financial system. 
I guess we kind of need both and

1278
01:09:08,100 --> 01:09:10,700
maybe we need to. 
We need one to become a store 

1279
01:09:10,700 --> 01:09:13,300
value like the Bitcoin and other
one to be in a medium of 

1280
01:09:13,300 --> 01:09:16,200
exchange and have them linked 
together in some ways. 

1281
01:09:16,600 --> 01:09:21,399
But beyond that is, you know, if
the idea is, I'm going to buy 

1282
01:09:21,399 --> 01:09:24,000
this crypto and it's going to go
up a lot and then I'm going to 

1283
01:09:24,000 --> 01:09:27,399
exchange it back into dollars. 
And then I'm going to go buy a 

1284
01:09:27,399 --> 01:09:30,500
Porsche. 
We're defeating the purpose of 

1285
01:09:30,500 --> 01:09:33,200
what we're trying to do here. 
It's I'm going to buy these 

1286
01:09:33,200 --> 01:09:35,100
cryptos and then I'm going to 
use the cryptos to buy the 

1287
01:09:35,100 --> 01:09:37,600
Porsche. 
We're not, we're not there yet. 

1288
01:09:37,600 --> 01:09:39,300
We're not going to be there yet 
for. 

1289
01:09:40,100 --> 01:09:44,100
I mean, well, I think we have 
Capability to get there and the 

1290
01:09:44,100 --> 01:09:46,700
problem that we're pushing back 
on his, what you just said. 

1291
01:09:47,200 --> 01:09:50,200
We keep pushing back every time 
somebody makes a step forward. 

1292
01:09:50,200 --> 01:09:53,399
We keep trying to regulate them 
every time they take a step 

1293
01:09:53,399 --> 01:09:57,000
forward just like we saw with, 
like I said, when Libre was a 

1294
01:09:57,000 --> 01:10:01,600
white paper, it was an idea. 
It was just an idea from 

1295
01:10:01,600 --> 01:10:06,400
Facebook. 
We had televised hearings about 

1296
01:10:06,400 --> 01:10:10,200
Dave, Marcus being just skewered
by everybody in Congress. 

1297
01:10:10,400 --> 01:10:13,000
And that was, you could see It 
was so transparent. 

1298
01:10:13,000 --> 01:10:15,400
They were worried about the 
competition. 

1299
01:10:15,700 --> 01:10:18,500
We've got the dollar. 
We've got our banking system and

1300
01:10:18,500 --> 01:10:20,900
I'm a senator on the Senate 
Banking Committee. 

1301
01:10:21,000 --> 01:10:24,000
And do you have any idea how 
much these Banks put into my 

1302
01:10:24,000 --> 01:10:26,500
re-election campaign? 
And you're going to wreck this 

1303
01:10:26,500 --> 01:10:28,800
for me by coming up with a whole
new scheme. 

1304
01:10:29,000 --> 01:10:30,800
No, we're not going to have any 
of that. 

1305
01:10:30,800 --> 01:10:33,200
I know all you did was write a 
white paper about what a good 

1306
01:10:33,200 --> 01:10:35,200
idea. 
This would be, but that was just

1307
01:10:35,200 --> 01:10:37,500
too much right there. 
They need to actually get to the

1308
01:10:37,500 --> 01:10:41,300
point of actually creating the 
thing in the first place before 

1309
01:10:41,300 --> 01:10:44,100
they Been started jumping all 
over them on this. 

1310
01:10:44,400 --> 01:10:48,100
So you can see that how worried 
they are about something like 

1311
01:10:48,100 --> 01:10:51,000
that because it room is a big 
disruptor for them. 

1312
01:10:51,300 --> 01:10:54,100
A big big. 
Yeah, I think on that that's 

1313
01:10:54,100 --> 01:10:56,700
exactly why. 
I personally I'm not 

1314
01:10:56,700 --> 01:11:01,000
particularly bullish on the idea
of you know, we probably 

1315
01:11:01,000 --> 01:11:04,800
experiments like that because 
you still have you know, these 

1316
01:11:04,800 --> 01:11:07,500
companies behind it. 
And you know, it's just too 

1317
01:11:07,500 --> 01:11:11,000
centralized and then the 
government's can basically go in

1318
01:11:11,000 --> 01:11:12,500
and shut. 
Shut those things down. 

1319
01:11:12,500 --> 01:11:15,500
And of course, they will because
as you point out, it's extremely

1320
01:11:15,500 --> 01:11:18,300
threatening. 
So I do think the the way to do 

1321
01:11:18,300 --> 01:11:23,300
this will have to come from for 
more radically decentralized 

1322
01:11:23,700 --> 01:11:25,600
projects like Bitcoin you 
theorem. 

1323
01:11:26,200 --> 01:11:27,900
But yeah, it's it is a long 
road. 

1324
01:11:27,900 --> 01:11:31,200
I mean, I think if you look at 
defy, it's very cool, but you 

1325
01:11:31,200 --> 01:11:34,900
can do like things like maker 
and you know, you taking out 

1326
01:11:34,900 --> 01:11:36,600
these collateralized positions 
and stuff. 

1327
01:11:36,600 --> 01:11:39,300
But the user experience is 
horrible. 

1328
01:11:39,300 --> 01:11:42,900
Like the throughput like it can 
only support Few users that 

1329
01:11:42,900 --> 01:11:44,900
transactions are way too 
expensive and assume. 

1330
01:11:44,900 --> 01:11:46,900
There's so many issues can't do 
anything with you. 

1331
01:11:46,900 --> 01:11:50,200
Can't buy anything with it, 
writer hard to do anything with 

1332
01:11:50,200 --> 01:11:52,100
that money that you make, right?
Like, you have a collateralized 

1333
01:11:52,100 --> 01:11:54,100
position and you maybe you make 
some interest there. 

1334
01:11:54,100 --> 01:11:56,900
But like then what? 
Let me throw a, let me throw 

1335
01:11:56,900 --> 01:11:59,000
another idea. 
You two coming back to what we 

1336
01:11:59,000 --> 01:12:02,800
talking about a few minutes ago.
It's an interesting idea, but 

1337
01:12:02,800 --> 01:12:07,200
there's really no motivation 
because as of right now, the 

1338
01:12:07,200 --> 01:12:10,900
perception by most is the 
current system is fine. 

1339
01:12:11,300 --> 01:12:16,000
We we had a pandemic in the FED 
came in and promised to print up

1340
01:12:16,000 --> 01:12:20,000
a you know, throw 15 kitchen 
sinks at the problem to use that

1341
01:12:20,000 --> 01:12:23,500
metaphor and the markets 
levitated and everybody thinks 

1342
01:12:23,500 --> 01:12:26,500
things are getting better. 
But if we turn around and we go 

1343
01:12:26,500 --> 01:12:32,000
back down and it looks like the 
central banks have a limit to 

1344
01:12:32,000 --> 01:12:35,800
what they could do or it 
produces the male investment 

1345
01:12:35,800 --> 01:12:39,000
that I'm worried about or the 
inflation that I think we're not

1346
01:12:39,000 --> 01:12:42,200
going to deflation this year. 
We're going to still As you 

1347
01:12:42,200 --> 01:12:46,200
know, the economy is Contracting
but on the other side too and 21

1348
01:12:46,200 --> 01:12:51,200
22, you're going to have drop in
aggregate supply because 25% 

1349
01:12:51,200 --> 01:12:53,700
less people have jobs. 
We're not gonna be making as 

1350
01:12:53,700 --> 01:12:58,100
much stuff, whether it's 
restaurants or actual things as 

1351
01:12:58,100 --> 01:13:01,200
we did before and if we keep 
giving people 600 bucks a week 

1352
01:13:01,200 --> 01:13:03,900
to spend, we're going to keep 
demand up or going to have 

1353
01:13:03,900 --> 01:13:06,000
Supply down that produces 
inflation. 

1354
01:13:06,300 --> 01:13:11,200
You produce Financial pain and 
dislocation out of this problem.

1355
01:13:11,700 --> 01:13:15,700
Out of this instance, people 
will be willing to entertain a 

1356
01:13:15,700 --> 01:13:20,600
new idea and then the kryptos 
can jump into that space But if 

1357
01:13:20,600 --> 01:13:24,400
we have a pandemic and a market 
crash and we print up a bunch of

1358
01:13:24,400 --> 01:13:27,300
money and we throw it at 
everybody and we give them Ubi 

1359
01:13:27,800 --> 01:13:32,900
and everything seems to get 
better and no one complains and 

1360
01:13:32,900 --> 01:13:34,500
there is no inflation or is no 
male vessel. 

1361
01:13:34,500 --> 01:13:37,100
Why do we need to change it? 
We don't need to change it then 

1362
01:13:37,100 --> 01:13:40,300
at that point. 
So if there is, if we go to the 

1363
01:13:40,300 --> 01:13:45,100
point of Go to the point of 
inflation or problems in 

1364
01:13:45,100 --> 01:13:48,800
financial markets that they turn
back down south again in a big 

1365
01:13:48,800 --> 01:13:51,300
way. 
Then I think people will be open

1366
01:13:51,300 --> 01:13:55,000
to the idea of we got to find an
alternative and then that's when

1367
01:13:55,600 --> 01:13:58,100
the defy experiments and 
everything else will take you to

1368
01:13:58,100 --> 01:14:02,800
taken a lot more seriously, but 
right now there are limited by 

1369
01:14:02,800 --> 01:14:04,500
this idea of. 
It's a good idea. 

1370
01:14:04,500 --> 01:14:07,600
It's kind of interesting. 
It's cool, but it stops there 

1371
01:14:07,600 --> 01:14:11,100
because I don't need it. 
I got a system that I perceive 

1372
01:14:11,200 --> 01:14:15,200
is just fine right now. 
Yeah, maybe one final question 

1373
01:14:15,200 --> 01:14:19,300
before we wrap up. 
So probably many people also 

1374
01:14:19,600 --> 01:14:24,200
thinking through, you know, how 
do they themselves manage this 

1375
01:14:24,200 --> 01:14:27,000
situation? 
What lies ahead, maybe how do 

1376
01:14:27,000 --> 01:14:31,400
they position themselves from an
investment perspective, you 

1377
01:14:31,407 --> 01:14:33,400
know, to make sure they're kind 
of, you know, safe and 

1378
01:14:33,400 --> 01:14:36,500
protected. 
You have any advice or 

1379
01:14:36,500 --> 01:14:39,300
recommendations for people who 
are thinking about, how to 

1380
01:14:39,300 --> 01:14:41,400
handle what lies ahead in the 
coming years? 

1381
01:14:43,000 --> 01:14:45,800
Yeah, I'd say, you know, I'm not
going to, you know, Say by this 

1382
01:14:45,800 --> 01:14:49,400
cell that or something like 
that, but I put it more 

1383
01:14:49,400 --> 01:14:51,800
conceptually. 
First of all, let's think about 

1384
01:14:51,800 --> 01:14:57,200
the economy, forget what we've 
been, we damage the economy, 25%

1385
01:14:57,200 --> 01:15:00,700
of lost, their jobs, and similar
numbers in Europe, as well, to 

1386
01:15:01,300 --> 01:15:03,000
similar numbers in the developed
world. 

1387
01:15:03,600 --> 01:15:07,100
How do we get back? 
How do we get back to that? 

1388
01:15:07,100 --> 01:15:10,900
How do we unworked from home? 
How do we get? 

1389
01:15:11,500 --> 01:15:15,700
Two million people to ride the 
New York City subway a day, as 

1390
01:15:15,700 --> 01:15:18,200
opposed to 200,000 ride the 
subway a day. 

1391
01:15:18,800 --> 01:15:22,600
What is the next time we're 
going to see a football match in

1392
01:15:22,600 --> 01:15:26,900
Europe with 70,000 people in the
stands 70,000 people. 

1393
01:15:27,200 --> 01:15:31,100
How do we get back? 
And if the answer is it's a long

1394
01:15:31,300 --> 01:15:35,500
slugging road to get back to 
those kind of questions, then 

1395
01:15:35,500 --> 01:15:36,800
there's going to be permanent 
change. 

1396
01:15:36,800 --> 01:15:40,000
If no one writes who wants to 
ride the tube in London. 

1397
01:15:40,300 --> 01:15:42,700
London is going to change. 
No one wants to ride the 

1398
01:15:42,700 --> 01:15:46,100
underground in Paris Paris is 
going to change in a big way. 

1399
01:15:46,100 --> 01:15:48,100
If nobody wants ride, the subway
system in New York. 

1400
01:15:48,100 --> 01:15:49,900
It's going to change in a big 
way. 

1401
01:15:50,200 --> 01:15:54,700
So, the first question you have 
to ask yourself is is, do you 

1402
01:15:54,700 --> 01:15:57,400
think that we can get back all 
the way back to that? 

1403
01:15:57,400 --> 01:15:59,900
Do you think we can go back to 
2019? 

1404
01:16:00,300 --> 01:16:05,600
Is it a vaccine or do you think 
like me, even if they, even if I

1405
01:16:05,600 --> 01:16:08,900
read headline, came across my 
Bloomberg in the next two 

1406
01:16:08,900 --> 01:16:13,300
minutes and said, found vaccine?
You know, you know, within 30 

1407
01:16:13,300 --> 01:16:15,000
days we're going to start 
vaccinations. 

1408
01:16:15,600 --> 01:16:18,800
I still think we've done so much
change to the economy. 

1409
01:16:18,800 --> 01:16:21,600
I want to see damage that I 
don't think we could go all the 

1410
01:16:21,600 --> 01:16:23,200
way back. 
So that's the first question. 

1411
01:16:23,200 --> 01:16:25,500
You have to ask yourself. 
Do you think we can get back? 

1412
01:16:25,600 --> 01:16:28,500
I think we don't. 
I think the second thing is, if 

1413
01:16:28,500 --> 01:16:32,300
we don't get back, human 
Ingenuity, means we are going to

1414
01:16:32,300 --> 01:16:35,700
have to change its not. 
We're going to permanently be 

1415
01:16:35,700 --> 01:16:37,700
damaged and never get better 
again. 

1416
01:16:38,100 --> 01:16:41,200
We're going to change so that 
coming out of this. 

1417
01:16:41,600 --> 01:16:45,400
As I like to say, coming out of 
this, the big companies that 

1418
01:16:45,400 --> 01:16:49,100
you're going to want to buy that
are going to power the market up

1419
01:16:49,100 --> 01:16:50,600
and power. 
Your Investments are going to be

1420
01:16:50,608 --> 01:16:53,800
companies that don't exist right
now that are going to be created

1421
01:16:53,800 --> 01:16:57,600
because of this change. 
What are those companies? 

1422
01:16:58,100 --> 01:17:00,700
What do they do where they going
to go? 

1423
01:17:00,800 --> 01:17:03,800
You know, it's kind of like, 
like I said, when the iPhone one

1424
01:17:03,800 --> 01:17:07,800
came out, Got to really think 
hard about what is this mean, 

1425
01:17:08,100 --> 01:17:11,000
other than I could call my 
mother easier and it did and, 

1426
01:17:11,000 --> 01:17:14,400
you know, and you have to be 
early on the idea that wow, it 

1427
01:17:14,400 --> 01:17:16,700
means the end of the taxi 
business and stuff. 

1428
01:17:16,700 --> 01:17:17,900
And so we got to start thinking 
that way. 

1429
01:17:17,900 --> 01:17:21,000
I don't know what those are and 
that's what I'm and that's 

1430
01:17:21,000 --> 01:17:23,200
really where I'm trying to think
about. 

1431
01:17:23,400 --> 01:17:26,400
What are going to be those. 
What are those changes going to 

1432
01:17:26,400 --> 01:17:30,000
be? 
I have a hard time believing. 

1433
01:17:30,100 --> 01:17:34,600
Like I said, I think every Trend
that we're seeing exposed. 

1434
01:17:35,300 --> 01:17:37,300
One wants to work in the office,
work at home. 

1435
01:17:37,700 --> 01:17:39,600
What movement away from 
retailing. 

1436
01:17:39,800 --> 01:17:42,700
A movement more towards an 
online world, you know, people 

1437
01:17:42,700 --> 01:17:45,700
that are even said that they 
don't even want to touch current

1438
01:17:45,700 --> 01:17:50,300
paper currencies anymore because
of the transmission of disease 

1439
01:17:50,300 --> 01:17:51,700
and stuff. 
So we're going to go to 

1440
01:17:51,700 --> 01:17:56,200
contactless payments and stuff. 
All of those Trends were in 

1441
01:17:56,200 --> 01:18:00,900
existence before this all it's 
doing is it's making him go 

1442
01:18:00,900 --> 01:18:04,900
faster and if it's making them 
go faster, we're not going back.

1443
01:18:05,200 --> 01:18:07,500
We're not going back. 
We're not all going to sit at 

1444
01:18:07,500 --> 01:18:10,700
home and talk to each other on 
Zoom until the moment becomes 

1445
01:18:10,700 --> 01:18:14,500
that we can all pile into a 
subway car and breathe all over 

1446
01:18:14,500 --> 01:18:17,600
each other to go into the 48th 
floor of an office building with

1447
01:18:17,600 --> 01:18:21,300
9,000 people in it. 
Seven or eight or nine hours a 

1448
01:18:21,308 --> 01:18:25,100
day, five days a week. 
I think that that era ended. 

1449
01:18:25,400 --> 01:18:28,400
And with that the worst business
to be and I think is commercial 

1450
01:18:28,400 --> 01:18:32,600
real estate right now, 
especially high-end densely, 

1451
01:18:32,600 --> 01:18:35,100
Urban commercial real estate is 
got a real problem. 

1452
01:18:35,200 --> 01:18:38,600
My other hands right now. 
If that's the environment that 

1453
01:18:38,600 --> 01:18:41,800
we're in, right? 
Then after that, what are they 

1454
01:18:41,808 --> 01:18:44,600
going to be the opportunity? 
So, I want to try and answer 

1455
01:18:44,600 --> 01:18:47,300
that question, that way, instead
of saying by the SNP until it 

1456
01:18:47,300 --> 01:18:52,100
goes to X or with your stop that
y or something along those 

1457
01:18:52,100 --> 01:18:54,200
lines. 
That's why I've been struggling 

1458
01:18:54,200 --> 01:18:56,900
with this with the rally. 
I understand the rally in the 

1459
01:18:56,907 --> 01:19:00,100
market. 
I understand small retail is 

1460
01:19:00,100 --> 01:19:02,700
piling in and helping to support
the market. 

1461
01:19:02,700 --> 01:19:07,100
I'm a big believer of that. 
As well too, but beyond that 

1462
01:19:07,400 --> 01:19:10,100
beyond that. 
Really, where are we going with 

1463
01:19:10,100 --> 01:19:12,300
this? 
I think we're going to a post 

1464
01:19:12,300 --> 01:19:15,600
virus world and you got to start
thinking about there's going to 

1465
01:19:15,608 --> 01:19:18,500
be great opportunities in the 
post virus World. 

1466
01:19:18,700 --> 01:19:22,700
It may not be by Ford and by 
United Airlines type of 

1467
01:19:22,700 --> 01:19:24,900
opportunities. 
Those were the pre virus World. 

1468
01:19:25,000 --> 01:19:28,300
It might be something completely
different and we'll just have to

1469
01:19:28,300 --> 01:19:30,000
figure out what that is. 
I hope that answers your 

1470
01:19:30,000 --> 01:19:33,200
question if you get any thoughts
or follow-ups on it. 

1471
01:19:34,200 --> 01:19:36,400
Now that's I think that's a 
great note to end on and I for 

1472
01:19:36,400 --> 01:19:38,800
one am very much looking forward
to the next time that I can go 

1473
01:19:38,800 --> 01:19:41,300
to Berlin and pay with my credit
card everywhere, because 

1474
01:19:41,700 --> 01:19:44,100
currently you can't do that and 
maybe this will be the thing 

1475
01:19:44,100 --> 01:19:46,900
that tips the scales and in 
Germany, you can finally pay 

1476
01:19:46,900 --> 01:19:49,300
with your credit card. 
It has it has. 

1477
01:19:49,400 --> 01:19:50,600
Oh really? 
Wow. 

1478
01:19:51,800 --> 01:19:53,900
That didn't take long. 
I'm just looking for the next 

1479
01:19:53,900 --> 01:19:58,900
time I can go to Berlin, you 
know, we do Jim. 

1480
01:19:58,900 --> 01:20:00,300
Thank you so much for joining us
today. 

1481
01:20:00,300 --> 01:20:03,500
This is fascinating and I'm sure
our listeners will very much. 

1482
01:20:03,600 --> 01:20:06,800
Get your insights. 
I certainly have been really 

1483
01:20:06,800 --> 01:20:11,600
enjoying all of your insights on
other podcast and also on, on, I

1484
01:20:11,600 --> 01:20:14,800
reset everything which we feel 
that we haven't mentioned. 

1485
01:20:14,800 --> 01:20:16,200
But yeah, you were also speaking
there. 

1486
01:20:16,200 --> 01:20:18,500
So this one should definitely 
check out the talk. 

1487
01:20:18,500 --> 01:20:20,800
I will leave the link in the 
show notes and happy to have you

1488
01:20:20,808 --> 01:20:22,900
back on at some point in future.
Thank you. 

1489
01:20:22,900 --> 01:20:24,400
I enjoyed it. 
Thanks so much. 

1490
01:20:24,500 --> 01:20:29,100
Thanks. 
It doesn't end here. 

1491
01:20:29,300 --> 01:20:31,500
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