Welcome back to Crimson Cast, Alan Clavio joining you.
It is Thursday, October 24th. IU football content week on
Crimson Cast continues to roll on and we got one of our
favorite guests on Taylor Lehman from Bite Sized Bison.
Back with us again to preview this week's contest between the
Indiana Hoosiers and the Washington Huskies.
Noon on Big 10 Network. We got college game day in town.
They're over setting up right now South of the stadium.
Taylor, you can feel the buzz here in Bloomington, can't you?
Yeah, yeah. No, it's real.
I remember when they were in town and was that 2017 and that
that felt that felt significant. And but this I would say, you
know, I mean, I was younger than, but this feels, this feels
even more probable. Yeah, I remember I did a 12 hour
tailgate that day and and then somehow made it into the stadium
and lasted the entire game. You know, we'll we'll talk about
that when you were younger too. I was younger too.
I could still do that. I.
I have no doubt. Well, no, apparently the buzzer
says I'm not capable of doing. I don't know what that was.
Sorry about that folks. But anyway, before we get
started, couple of quick items. First of all, we are brought to
you by Home Field Apparel here at Crimson Cast and the entire
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You can catch them at Upland. You know where Upland is.
Upland's over at on 11th St. here in Bloomington.
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I'm assuming you can buy some there, but you should bring your
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It's going to be really quite fascinating to have them back in
town because then on Saturday morning they have paired up with
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It's going to be awesome. 7:00 AM exclusive shirts.
I mean, this is like the culmination of two of our
favorite brands in Bloomington getting together.
Not just not just that, but also the upland thing as well.
I mean, it's a great agglomeration of things and
really festive, exactly what we want to see.
Am I understanding right that there's going to be food there?
Yes, there goes breakfast is like I think there's a a
collectible plate as well. It's going to be a lot of cool
stuff. It'll be food.
You need to get a base before you go out and party.
We talked about that a little bit yesterday on the pod, but
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football season by Hoosier Game Day Logger.
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home. You can buy Hoosier Game Day
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beer is sold, including Upland's many locations, including the
one that Home Fields going to be at tomorrow.
Can I? Tell a quick story about the
Hoosier game day Logger during the Nebraska game, I was behind
some Nebraska fans. They left early, by the way.
They were very discouraged and but anyway, they were with a
couple of Indiana fans. They were a group together and
somebody went and got a Hoosier game day logger and they brought
it to one of their one of one of their friends and they're they
made him pose with it for a picture.
It was like he didn't want to do he was not going to do it.
But he eventually gave and then he drank the whole thing.
I mean, you can't resist. It it's one of the best looking
cans I've ever seen. I've seen a lot of beer cans in
my lifetime, you know, So who's your game day lager?
Delightful easy drinking Vienna lager, perfect with football.
Be sure to please drink responsibly and we thank Upland
for their support. All right, Taylor, let's dive in
as we have a lot to talk about. First, let's recap our our
thoughts. When we finished up that podcast
last week about Nebraska and Indiana, you know, we were both
confident that Indiana was going to win that game.
I don't think we were confident they were going to win 56 to 7.
So let's quickly start off by saying like, what were the two
or three key sources of success statistically that Indiana had
that allowed them to win that game by 49 points?
Yeah. And I think the first thing is
just the way they ran the ball. I did not anticipate that.
I did not think Nebraska's rush defense was as good as they were
touting. But but the the way that they
ran the ball was really effective, I thought.
And then I also thought Miles cross was really effective.
I remember saying on the podcast that it could be a Miles cross
game given how effective their cornerbacks were.
And I, I think that was a big reason why he's able to work all
over the field and they really struggled to cover him.
But then also the, you know, I, I've, I had a lot of concerns
about the secondary going into that game.
And at first it looked like there might be some issues, but
you could definitely tell 'cause, you know, they work in
zone mostly because there is a talent disparity.
Going man to man like that would not be a good idea.
And you could tell as the game was going on, they were really
jumping some routes and, and, and I mean, forcing turnovers in
the passing game was, was great too.
I think that's really the first time we've seen that from them.
So the, the, the, the secondary performance was really not
surprising to me, but it was encouraging to see, especially
going into the, you know, this, this last the back half of the
schedule. Yeah, I was really impressed
with with how how much havoc they were able to create,
especially with turnovers like you mentioned.
I mean, you know, a + 4 turnover margin, that was their best of
the year by far. And you know, a, a real change
of pace from what they've had. You know, for instance, in the
in the Maryland game, you know, where it went the opposite
direction. And I think you have to go back
quite a ways to find a game where Indiana had that good of a
turnover margin. And in fact, I'm doing that
right now. I'm looking through past games.
They were +3 at Rutgers in the 2020 season, and they were +3 at
home versus Northwestern in the 2019.
But you can go all the way back to 2016 and you can't find a
game where Indiana was +4 better in turn over they.
Didn't have a + 4 better turnover margin game in in 2020.
No, that's crazy. No, they they, in fact, they had
the plus 3 versus Rutgers and and the other games were plus 1
+ 2 + 2 -, 1 + 2 + 1 - 2. Wow, so this was one of the like
many other things about that Nebraska game.
This was kind of a Unicorn. Now that probably led to the
score. What this is the weird thing I
was going to say. It kind of led to the score not
being representative and yet that, you know, did we really
lose that bad graphic that everybody loves on Twitter?
It it wasn't unrepresentative. That was that was about as bad
as Nebraska actually got beat. It is just interesting that an
IU defense that had kind of been derided a bit over the course of
the previous few weeks really came came out to play and were
able to take advantage of the situation against Nebraska the
way they work. Yeah, I'm looking at the EPA
roundup that I do immediately after every game.
And after the Nebraska game, Nebraska's offense had such a
bad EPA that it would have finished in the 12th percentile
of all games played last year. So that's that's, that's it's
really, it's the it's not good. And, and, and when you go down
the list, I mean, EPA per past 19th percentile, EPA per rush,
19th percentile, like, like it was a dominant game by Indiana's
defense. And I will say that that there
were two turnovers that happened deep in their own territory too,
which was really encouraging to see because early in the season,
when the ball, when the, when opposing offenses were driving
into their territory, they did, they didn't play super well.
So having those performances in their own territory was really
encouraging, especially for this Washington team that really can
move the ball in the middle of the field.
So let's go ahead and pivot talk about Washington.
I mean, so this is a Washington team that has had a a curious
schedule or curious set of outcomes, I think.
And they're clearly a team that is in transition from one
coaching staff to another, which was probably going to happen.
I mean, maybe not the coaching staff part, but even if Caitlin
de Boer hadn't left, this was going to be a year where they
were going to be reloading, given, you know, the sheer
outflow of talent that they had off of those teams the last
couple of years. And, you know, I mean, it's a
team that's had just a an insane level of success, 11 and two in
2022 and then 14 and one. They got all the way to the
national championship game last year.
You know, they they were going to have a lot of changes.
Now they've dropped 12 points per game on offense.
They played better defensively, like last year they averaged
about 25 points per game given up.
This year they're only allowing 17.
But it's clearly a team that, while talented, is having
trouble scoring regularly. And they've, I don't know,
they've got some interesting issues with them.
Yeah, yeah. No, absolutely.
They're they're they're coordinating pair.
I think people will if they don't know already that they
they'll find it interesting is their offensive coordinator is
the son of Pete Carroll, which is who is his name is Brennan
Carroll. He was the offensive coordinator
at Arizona and came over. I think he's actually kind of
promising. And and then the defensive
coordinator is the son of Bill Belichick.
Steven Belichick was coaching DBS at at that New England, you
know, last year, I think the last Four Seasons now and really
kind of created that weird like Rutgers New England secondary
connection because he went to Rutgers.
And so the they have a lot of investment.
Like the I don't I don't think a lot of people realize the
football program that's coming to the big 10 in Washington like
it it they have institutional investment.
If if you're not old enough, you might not remember like, well, I
mean, I'm not old Buff, right, I am.
The the 80s and 90s were were very successful times for
Washington. And then they kind of made a
comeback in the 20 tens, starting with Steve Sarkeesian,
who's at Texas now. And so, you know, this is a this
is a program that expects to win and has some backing to do it.
Their assistant salary pools at 7.5 million, which is almost 2
million higher than I us this season.
And so, you know, like you were saying, there's going to be some
transition because they were losing their offensive
coordinator anyway. He was going to go somewhere
else. And so, I mean, they probably
just would have bumped Nick Sheridan up, I guess, but.
Can we revisit that? I mean, I think right now that
looked good for Alabama. Yeah, right.
So, you know, there's there. But like you were saying,
there's just some inconsistencies in this
transitions, in this transition season.
There's a lot of talent, there's a lot of positive scheme.
We'll probably get into this a little bit later, but their
offense reminds me like a slightly less effective 2019 IU
offense in a lot of ways. So, you know, yeah, Yeah, I
mean, I, I just general inconsistencies.
Yeah, no. And it is interesting because,
you know, they they had kind of a weird stretches of program.
I mean, and and it was kind of hit the bottom of the barrel
with the Tyrone Willingham era. And then, you know, they got
Sarkeesian who brought the program back.
Chris Peterson comes over from Boise State, has a really
successful tenure. And then they get Kaylin de
Boer. And you know, that like they
really didn't. I mean, I had Jimmy Lake in
there for one season, but that they didn't quite work as well
as I, you know, people would have hoped it would.
But it's it's fascinating, you know, because Washington is a
legitimate football brand. And they're also kind of by
themselves. You know, I mean, they're
they're four and a half five hours away from Washington
State. If they're closer to Oregon than
they are or maybe just as close, but they're by themselves.
They're in a big city and it's a city that loves football.
I mean, you look at the support that the Seahawks have and, you
know, Washington was really kind of the Ogs of that.
So they do have a, a really well resourced program, but you look
at what they've done so far this year and they've had the same
kind of inconsistencies that the rest of the PAC 12 schools have
had. And and except for Oregon, you
know, like, but USC is basically having the same season
Washington's had where they've had a couple of good wins,
including, you know, a win that looks worse every week now that
Michigan win that Washington pulled off, that looked like a
really good one at the time. But then they turn around and
they lose at Iowa 40 to 16. You know, they lost at Rutgers
on Friday night. They were the better team that
night, but Rutgers had the big plays and that ended up being
the win for them. You know, they they essentially
throttle Northwestern at home in their Big 10 opener.
And that was nice to see. But you know, they haven't
scored a ton of points against good competition so far.
Once they've gotten out of their the weak part of the non
conference. They they only score 19 points
against Washington State. They score 24 against
Northwestern. They score 18 against Rutgers.
They score 27 against Michigan. But they needed some turnovers
from Michigan to be able to do that.
And then they only score 16 points on the road against Iowa.
So, you know, some of this is more of a macro thing.
It's like, yes, you're building, but you're also playing, I
think, a different caliber of competition in the Big 10 than
what they were facing in the PAC 12.
That's not to denigrate Washington or their
accomplishments the last couple of years, but it's clear just
from what's happened to USC, there's a lot more depth and a
lot harder physical style of play than what these PAC 12
teams were generally used to. Again, with the exception of
Oregon, who kind of recruits on a different level than everybody
else. Yeah, yeah.
No. And I think, you know, the the
comparison you could draw to is the defensive coordinator at USC
and he came over from UCLA. And so, you know, UCLA had a
really effective defense last season.
You would expect that the translate to USC.
And I don't think it really has the way that they were hoping it
would. And I think a lot of that does
have to come does come from the transition into the Big 10.
But I think, you know, even yeah, that that was that was the
big thing I was watching coming into this season was just how
how does how does how do the PAC 12 teams deal with these these
Big 10 teams that play, you know, a pretty different brand
of football. And I think Washington's one of
those teams that you really see it affecting the the way that
they're performing. Yeah.
Let's dive into some of their individual numbers like what is
what makes this team tick? I would, I would tell everybody
if you like what you're hearing here, subscribe to bite sized
bison on sub stack bite sized bison dot substack.com.
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If you love IU football, if you love stats, or even if you're
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understand what's going on in football.
You need this information. Let's dive into that
information. So right now, Indiana, a 73%
favorite in S&P Plus an 84% favorite in FPI, what accounts
for that difference? Yes.
So the difference is FPI they run like I think it's 20,000
simulations. I think that is slightly
differing from SP Plus's resume based approach.
And so I, I think, you know, IU wins, what would you say 84
percent, 84% of those simulated games against Washington.
And I think a lot of that just has to do with the way that the
teams match up and and the way that we're going to talk.
And it's also travel that travel that fits into it too.
And, and we've already in the morning, Washington having to
play at 9:00 in the morning body time.
They've had to do this now twice it 2, two games in a row.
They had a week off for the bye week last week, but they'd go to
Iowa for a noon kick and that did not turn out well for them.
They they really struggled with that.
And we've seen now, as I think the stat was earlier, it is hard
for these teams to travel. We saw it with USC last week and
that wasn't even a morning game for them, but they travel to
Maryland and they lose that game.
It's been very hard for teams to crisscross the country
effectively on either side. There has been a couple of
exceptions, like Penn State winning at USC, Indiana winning
at UCLA, but it's still a dominant issue and it seems to
be affecting the PAC 12 schools maybe a little bit more.
Yeah, yeah. I always heard the science that
going was it going West to east is harder to do anyway.
So maybe that hasn't to do with it.
Yeah, I mean, you know, if, if I hop in the plane, you know, and
I go visit like, you know, my my villa in Los Angeles, like I
can, I can do all that land there and still feel pretty good
for most of the day. If I'm flying this direction and
I have to like get up at, you know, much earlier time that I
would like to, I'm all screwed up.
So I think that's part of it. But yeah, it's so so it's it's
baked in there. But if you look at purely the
resume, 73% win probability for Indiana in this game and
projected to win 32 to 22. So about a 10 point margin.
Now the line has been pretty steady all week at 6 1/2.
And just a reminder for everybody, betting lines are not
you need you can look at the betting line as the way that
Vegas is trying to interpolate what would be the middle like
where would it like, you know, if if if we were looking at this
game, how do we get betters on both sides?
That's really what that comes down to.
But we can kind of extrapolate from that that if you look at it
perceptionally, they're looking at Rourke is about a three 3 1/2
point factor, which I don't know if that's, if I'm, I'm surprised
that it's not more than that or, or or if that's tied into the
opponent that they're playing here.
But that has been factored into the equation and why the line's
a little bit lower than what S&P Plus is projecting now.
Clearly one of the big impacts, let's stick with Indiana to
start with here is you know, Indiana's the number one most
successful team in the passing game in the country.
They're 7th in the rush. But no one knows exactly how
Tavin Jackson at quarterback operates for a full game.
We we liked what we saw out of him, certainly in the
second-half. I was actually watching the the
replay this morning and I was really impressed with some of
the throws that he was making, not just the the over the
shoulder throw to to Elijah Sarat, but some of the other
throws that I was seeing him make.
I was like, this is actually really impressive and it looked
like they didn't skip a beat. If they get that, then maybe the
6 1/2 point spread is too low and maybe Indiana should be
favored by more, because I'm having a hard time seeing
Washington's defense be able to slow down the efficiency that
Indiana's been playing with on offense up to this point.
Yeah, yeah. No, absolutely.
I, I want to add that I put money on Indiana's total point.
They're, they're total, the team total at at least 35 points.
That that's the, that's the one that I kind of drew for myself.
But the but yeah, the efficiency is, is insane.
And I think, you know, it's just because of their multiplicity on
offense and, and their balance and kind of, you know, I've
mentioned this in the preview too, is like, you know, how, how
committed are they going to be to that balance if they find a
lot of success on the on the ground game against Washington's
defense, which teams have done, as Zach pointed that out on your
most, your recent podcast, you know, do they stick with the run
because teams have generally been going 25 passes, 35 rushes
against this Washington team. And I, I could see Indiana, you
know, going that way. That's not too far out of
balance. But also at the same time, they
any sort of metric or any sort of statistical advantage just
has not mattered for this offense.
Nobody can stop Mike Shanahan from doing what he wants to do.
And and so, you know, plugging Tavan into that is like he he
adds athleticism. He maybe lacks some of the
cerebral aspects of the offense that Curtish work has simply
from being so experienced and also.
Being good at his position, but also spending more time and reps
and practice. And but he seemed and Taven
seems to have really good relationships with the
receivers. And you know, like you were
saying, I he would talk about how you didn't recognize him
playing on the field at one point.
And I did the same thing until he threw that touchdown pass, I
think it was to Elijah Sarat. And I was like, I was like
Dwight Haven through that. Yeah.
And and so I was like, oh, wow. You know, he he looks, he looks
really good out there. And I think the fact that, you
know, you and I both did not recognize that it wasn't Curtis
Rourke is a good sign. But, you know, he's always had
the arm talent. It's always been, you know,
getting him into a system that caters to his strengths.
Last year, they really struggle with that, except for the
Louisville game for some reason. And we saw what happened and and
he looked great, you know, especially when he's pushing the
ball down field. But if he can, you know, I don't
know if he's going to be like a super, you know, dangerous
running threat like a lot of people think he might be with
the RPO, but he'll run more than Curtis work more than likely.
And you know, that'll that'll help with the the rushing attack
as well. But yeah, no, just the, I don't,
I don't know if the efficiency will take a hit like because
this OK, so I have this graphic that that that I've used
multiple times in talking about the quarterbacks with the staff.
And, and it's it's it looks at the quarterbacks that came into
their starting positions during the five seasons that this staff
was at the IT was at James Madison.
And every time in all the one were transfers, by the way.
And so every time they ended up getting a PFF grade of like, I
think Jordan McLeod had the lowest, which is really saying
something. No kidding. 908990 Like Ben
Denucci, Todd Santeo, Cole Johnson, all those guys, they
just had this like insane growth from where they came from to
James Madison, this starting quarterbacks.
And so just like putting Taven, they know how to cater to a
quarterbacks strengths. And so putting Taven Jackson
into that offense is going to be I, I don't think it will skip a
beat. I, you know, it, it's
interesting too, because if you think about the running game in
particular and how that plays in, I mean, Tavin Jackson is
first and foremost the the thrower, but it does add another
dimension there as well. And you may not need it because
ultimately, Justice Ellison, Tyson Lawton have really kind of
established themselves as, as, you know, kind of the fire and
ice combo with this. I mean, Ellison looks like he
gets stronger every game. But so much of that stems from
the offensive line and their ability to block.
And this becomes maybe Indiana's biggest advantage in this game,
the ability, if we look at what they did against Nebraska,
A-Team whose strength was supposed to be the defensive
line. And you know, the Red Sea
comment about these huge holes being opened up, I mean,
Washington's got to really be like, how are they scheming
against that is going to be a big part of of their planning
coming into this contest because this Indiana offensive line
clearly knows what they're doing, believes they're going to
hit those blocks. And Indiana could rush for like,
you know, like they would have no problems rushing for three
hundred 350 yards if that was available to them.
I think they probably prefer to do it, especially in a game like
this, you know, So that's that is something that I think
everybody needs to keep an eye on as we move forward.
Yeah, yeah. On the other hand, I do think
that this watching defense is good.
Like, you know, they, they are, they're built from the outside
and, you know, because Steven Belichick and his natural
tendencies for defensive backs, they have a really strong
secondary. Their, their defensive backs
are, are, are probably the best as a, as a collective group in,
in the big 10. And I mean, they haven't really
played an offense that can throw like Indiana can, but, you know,
we'll, we'll see how that goes this week.
But they do have some talent along the defensive line too.
And, and they've caused havoc on the defensive line 1.
I think they're like a top six team in defensive line havoc in
the big 10. And so, you know, it just, yeah,
it just when we were talking about it like traveling and and
you know how difficult that's going to be, but it just kind of
shows, you know, when Washington is on, they're really on and and
that could, you know, make this a competitive game.
But if they're not on, I think this this gets out of hand.
But yeah, yeah, the offensive line is, I use offensive line as
insane, just that I can't believe the difference from last
year to this year and from two years ago to this year.
Yeah, it it's one of the underrated stories about this
whole thing with Indiana is just how not to.
I mean, solid is not doing them enough justice how well they're
playing, but it's out of nowhere.
I mean, really. And I mean, just all credit to
Bob Bostad and and to, you know, to to Mike Katie kind of
anchoring things. I mean, him coming back was
huge. And just the the way they've
been able to cobble these pieces together.
I mean, we talked a lot in the preseason about how that was a
real concern area and that has been maybe the least concerning
area. Not that there've been many
concerning areas at all, but have we even talked about
negative things with the offensive line so far this
season? No, no, you know, there's slight
regression for Drew Evans at the beginning of the season, but
it's leveled out and he's he's, you know, he's holding down the
bottom the floor of the offensive line and former walk
on. And he's, you know, grading I
think in like the top 25% of guards and FBS and that's all
you can ask for out of him. Absolutely.
That's yeah, he's great. I mean, they're, they're,
they're humming. The other aspect that I think is
going to be interesting is like, what does Indiana try to do in
the passing game? I mean, I, I don't think that
they're just going to run. They, they enjoy those chunk
plays that they're getting. They enjoy, you know, being able
to move the ball at will. And I going back and watching
the Nebraska game, it's you really start to get a sense of
how much they love peeling off those 12 yard plays.
And they're, you know, it is it is an open question about until
we see it for a whole game, how well Taven Jackson can place his
throws the way that Curtis Rourke does.
And also, maybe more importantly, how good is Tavan
at adjusting at the line of scrimmage and making the right
calls on the on the RPO's and figuring out where he's going to
put the ball. But I'm, I'm interested to see
like what Indiana decides to do because the, the, the strength
of Washington's defense, as you mentioned, is the secondary and
you know, you get the number one most efficient passing attack in
the country versus the number 9 most efficient pass defense in
the country. Now we said that last week about
the running game versus Nebraska and we saw what gave there.
So again, it's just like I is, is that number for the the
Washington defensive product of them having played teams that
can't pass the ball particularly well Because I, I think we've by
this point got enough evidence that Indiana's offense from a
past perspective is legit. Yeah, I think that the team that
they played this season, Washington has played this
season that is the most effective in the passing games
probably Washington State and they I think they're like 23rd
and and passing yards per game. And also SP plus has them as the
17th best offense, Washington State and they completed only
50% of their passes against Washington.
So I think they're, I think they are an effective pass defense.
It's just that they from first of all, they've they've played
teams that just can't pass the ball.
Like all four Big 10 teams they've played are bottom 6 in
the conference in EPA per pass. And so the, you know, that's
just not been just testing them hasn't been available.
So, you know, what does that look like?
I, you know, I don't know. I, I don't, I don't think we do
know. And so that'll be, that'd be
interesting to see. But yeah, like you said, they're
not just going to run the ball. They're definitely going to pass
the ball. We might see messy Elijah Sarat,
you know, struggle a bit more than he has on the perimeter
because that's where their strengths are.
And Thaddeus Dixon, the cornerback, is extremely good.
Best reception rate in the country among Victor in the Big
10 amongst cornerbacks. And so, yeah, I think, you know,
it might be another one of those games where they just have to
have complex passing concepts. Not that not not complex for the
quarterback to understand, but more just things that really
build off of each other and, and, you know, using the running
game then to build those, those, those routes to, to become open.
We saw some of that in, in the game against Nebraska too.
Like the there's one, I don't know, you know, I don't know if
you know about Dan Casey on Twitter.
He's like a football scheme guy. I, I really like him.
He he pointed out a play that Indiana ran last week that was
an RPO triple option. And then at the last second
before running, I don't think he was ever going to run, but
Curtis Rourke pulled up and threw to his right.
Yeah, it was a short. Just to I know that that was a
touchdown pass on the Yeah, I remember that.
I, I remember hearing that at the moment.
I was like, oh, that was nice. The run game actually set up
that pass and I think we might see some of that this this week
because that's the best way you get a good secondary out of out
of position and Nebraska has a decent secondary too.
Yeah, exactly. Well, that's the thing.
It's like it's, I think you have to prepare mentally for the best
that your opponent might throw at you.
And then when that doesn't happen, it's like, well, why?
Like how did we get to that point where it didn't happen?
I think with Nebraska, I'm still trying to figure out exactly why
they played so poorly. You know, because it was like
the game they could have gotten back into the game if they'd
scored in the at the beginning of the second-half and then it
just became a freight train in the opposite direction for them.
That rule said he thought they were prepared.
Well, I'd say something about that rule.
Then. Let's switch sides of the ball
so Washington, you know, the the kind of the core of their
offense is Will Rogers transfer quarterback from Mississippi
State was has been very accurate so far this year, 72.2%
completion percentage thrown for 18120 yards, 13 touchdowns, 2
interceptions. He has not been the problem with
the offense and it's been impressive and and not
surprising, I guess. I mean, Rogers got great
tutelage at Mississippi State, played, you know, was brought
there by by Mike Leach originally and and certainly had
a great season pass for almost 4000 yards back in 2022.
Missed a lot of last year, but it's four games last year.
So didn't have quite as good of a season.
But, you know, you look at the rest of this Washington offense
and you know, they're probably thinking, well, I'm glad we're
playing Indiana because the secondary is the the weakest
part of the defense, relatively speaking, and they're going to
have to exploit that if they're going to try to have success in
this contest. Yeah, yeah, this is exactly why
I said that. This kind of reminds me of a
less effective 2019 Indiana team because the offensive line for
Washington is just so bad. They're they're tackle pairing
has allowed the most quarterback pressures of any tackle pairing
in the country. So that means, you know, Mikael
Camaro, who basically pass rushes every snap, is going to
be hunting Will Rogers all game. And you know, they like, it's so
bad Galen, that Jonah Coleman, I think Jonah Coleman's going to
play in the NFL. Fantastic running back cannot go
to the left because they can't block on the left side of the
line. And like only 17% of his rushes
go to the left. And so the do you know that
that's that's really their hindrance?
But like you were saying, like scheming around a poor offensive
line requires a good quarterback and and also talented receivers,
which they have as well. I think Denzel Boston's going to
have a chance to play in the NFL by the end of his Washington
career. Giles Jackson's going to get a
chance. He was part of that national
championship team last year and it was really important when I
think it was Jalen McMillan was hurt.
And you know what, this the when it kind of reminds me of when
Indiana played Maryland and Maryland's strength of their
defense was their defensive line and the goal was to just get
behind that defensive line. I think that's what Washington's
going to try. They're going to use screens.
They're going to use check down passes.
They're going to use, you know, complex mesh of the routes and
and, you know, mix and match what they're doing.
But I think, you know, it's going to be, it's going to put
pressure on on, on the IU secondary for sure.
Jonah Coleman, you mentioned earlier now I did a podcast
yesterday with, with Brandon Boyd, who has a podcast does
Washington Athletics and he said Jonah Coleman's on like a snap
count limit, according to Jen Fish, like 1515 rushes in this
game, which that's great because I, I mean, that's a guy who's
rushing for 6.8 yards of carry and has five touchdowns and
almost 100 yards of game so far. They don't really have a lot
behind him. You've got Cameron Davis, Damond
Williams and Adam Mohammed. Those are the only other 3
running backs that have exceeded triple digits and none of them
have more than 185 yards. And so if they're really going
to hold Coleman back, that really does handcuff
Washington's offense in a lot of ways because you're just, you
don't have to take them quite as seriously if he's not getting
the ball. Yeah, yeah, exactly.
It allows, you know, they're still going to be the the the
way that this defensive line for Indiana really runs is like they
just pin their ears back and they just go at the offensive
line. I mean, obviously it's it's not
just like pure aggression, but that they are going to be
attacking every snap. So they're not really
necessarily sitting back, but the linebackers will and and
that'll be that'll be significant to in coverage.
But the yeah, no, absolutely that Jonah Coleman.
I mean, he, he is, he's so insane.
He he only trails Boise State running back was Ashton Jean.
How do you pronounce his last name?
Genti. I think it's Genti.
Genti Ashton, genti you. Can tell we did a lot of
research on Boise State before the podcast all.
I know is Cam Camper, but the, the he, he, he averages the
second most yards after contact per rush behind Ashton Genti.
And that is an insane stat because the reason he does that
is because their offensive line is so bad.
And so he everything he's he's gaining, you know, he gained 79%
of his yards after contact. And so, you know, that really
bodes well because like you were saying, there's not a Jonah
Coleman behind Jonah Coleman. So you know this if, if you can
get the running back on the ground, which other teams have
not been able to, you can really hold back this Washington team,
which can move the ball. They're like 18th in conversion
rate. The so the other aspect of this
is going to be interesting. It's like the the way that
they're going to try to approach their offensive flow and what
Indiana tries. I mean, the, the idea that
Indiana is going to force a bunch of of turnovers is
probably not going to happen. And and yet like Washington
can't really dink and dunk their way down the field the whole
time. And the other aspect is this is
a worse special teams team than Nebraska was.
And Nebraska was real bad. And you know, what it looks like
from the statistics is that comes from really two things.
One, their field goal kicker is not very good.
He's he's missed 7 out of the 17 attempts that he's had so far
this year. And they also get almost no
yardage on punt returns. I think they're averaging like 6
1/2 yards a punt return. So you're and, and, and even on
kickoff returns, I think they're only averaging like 21 yards
when I don't know why they're choosing to bring it out if
they're only averaging 21 yards of punt or kick returns.
So they're not getting great field position.
They're not. And they're not able to trust
their kicker. And we saw what they did the
Nebraska last week where, you know, Nebraska, instead of
kicking the field goal to, you know, be down seven to three, I
think it was, ends up going for it.
They lose the ball. Indiana drives down the field
and scores. And it completely changed the
complexion of the game from that point forward.
So Washington almost has extra pressure on their offense.
If they don't convert, they get themselves in positions where
they're going to struggle to put points on the board.
Yeah, the crazy thing is Galen that, you know, maybe they can't
trust their kicker, but they've certainly been going to him a
lot. He leads the he leads the
conference in attempts like at 17 and and he has only made 10.
And so, so in a big part of that is because their offensive line
is so bad, because they're so bad after they break into
opponent territory, they are sorry, I forget the forget the
figure, but they are what is it 102nd in the country and EPA
after their opponent's 40 yard line and they just can't move
the ball once the field gets tighter.
And even with Jonah Coleman. And so you know, the that that
bodes well for Indiana because Washington is really good in
early downs that that is that's where their offense thrives.
And Indiana has been really good about getting opponents into
third down situations. I remember last that against
Nebraska, it just seemed like we were standing up all the time.
I mean, I was constantly standing.
Everybody else was standing up. I felt bad because there were
people behind me. I'm like I'm blocking your view.
But no, the we were standing up for 3rd downs and constantly
and, and I was like, like, wow, this is, this is not good for
Nebraska. They were converting quite a few
of them. But you know, the, yeah, getting
them in 3rd down situation is going to be really important
because, you know, they don't have they're, they're not, they,
they don't have a kicker that can really, you know, execute
like you were saying, because Nebraska, yeah, it actually, it
really did affect the game. When you know that, you know,
they're not going to look to their kicker, then it's like,
OK, wow. You know, you you really can
prepare for these four down series.
So I guess as we wrap up, you know, we, we've talked a lot
about the keys for Indiana. You know what I'd maybe like to
finish on is everything has gone right for Indiana in these games
eventually. And I, you know, what I'm really
curious about is, you know, how, how much of a chance do you
think Indiana has to jump on Washington very early in this
game? Because I do feel like there's
going to be a game that comes down the Pike eventually where
Indiana doesn't grind their opponents into a paste like they
have here, you know, and, and in a situation where you've got it
back and forth and Indiana's having to constantly put points
on the board, I still like them. But I do wonder, like, you know,
you don't want to mess around with a Washington team that
still has a lot of talented players.
Like, can they go out and really just set the tone early like
they did in the Nebraska game? You know that that to me, seems
like one of the big keys for Indiana, just in general, is to
grab that momentum and not let Washington have any of it.
Yeah, yeah, No, I mean, I I agree.
And and it's, it's, it's tough to know, you know, it like it's,
I guess it's kind of baked into Indiana's identity at this point
is that they they script those first drives so effectively.
And and the that's also reflected in their in game
adjustments. I think Mike Shanahan,
particularly on offense is just really a really smart coach.
I think he has a bright a bright future ahead of him.
But yeah, I mean, like you were saying, you don't want to mess
around and let Washington stay in this game.
There's like, there's too much talent, there's too much
football knowledge. You know, it's it's honestly a
lot, a lot like Indiana in a lot of ways.
And and especially in like the the young up and coming
coordinators and and things along those lines.
I mean, that's you. I mean, Stephen Belichick's not
exactly up and coming, but. You know, he's got that that
young man's got to make a name for.
Himself too. OK.
But, you know, I I think that, yeah, I think this, I think
there's a very real chance that this is their toughest.
Like once, once we're in the game on the field.
This might be their toughest game yet if if they let a
Washington team hang around. So I think it really does kind
of hinge on that beginning. I guess the flip side, because
you said that on on X and people got mad at you because
Washington lost 40 to 16 to Iowa.
You know, I do think it's interesting kind of looking back
at that game and and how it went.
You know, Iowa started with a punt.
They they were three and out and then Washington drove down the
field 14 plays, 73 yards, missed a field goal going back to what
we were talking about. And then Iowa scored a touchdown
on an 80 yard drive, but then Washington pegged him back 77.
All right. Then they forced Iowa into
another three and out. Then Washington fumble on the
next drive. Then Iowa kicks a field goal.
Like you have to get like it was 1710 Iowa at the end of the
first half. So it was a, it was a close
game, but then, you know, essentially from there,
Washington disintegrated interception to start the
second-half, turnover on downs on their next Dr. turnover on
downs on the drive after that, turnover on downs on the drive
after that. And then they finally score a
touchdown on a long drive. I mean, 17 plays, 75 yards down,
40 to 10:00, and they end up scoring a touchdown.
I don't know if they missed the extra point or went for two.
They they troubled in for two and they missed it.
But that's an illustration of what I'm talking about.
Like they they were in that game at halftime and then suddenly it
got away from them. And it's actually not too
different from what happened in the Michigan game.
That one didn't get away from them.
They got a couple of opportunistic things at the end
and they were able to to pick up the victory.
Tough assignment on the road. And I think for the first time,
Memorial Stadium is a weapon that you can use against your
opponents. So we're talking about that with
Mitchell Page last night. And it's like, it's weird to
think about Memorial Stadium is a factor, and yet I think it's
going to be a factor. Not as I mean, Kinnick is a kind
of on a different level. If you've never been there, you
you know what I mean. But Memorial Stadium last week,
that was intimidating. I don't know if you listened to
Sean Asbury's interview with Rhett Lewis on I.
Haven't had a chance. Yet he talked, they Rhett Lewis
asked him about the environment and and the Nebraska game and he
because Sean Asbury started with Boston College.
So he's been in ACC environments and he said it was the the
loudest game that he's been at. And and that's kind of it's kind
of wild because, you know, Memorial Stadium is like half
the size of some of those this one of the biggest stadiums and
and to be that loud, that's. It is, but you know, but again,
it's like weirdly, the way they did the construction and the way
they enclosed both ends and the way that the sides come up and
the fact that all the sound is essentially ricocheting off the
turf and then back on to the stands.
It's always been a little more intimate.
You know, I mean, as much as I love the big house, as much as I
have enjoyed going to like Penn State, the the, the shapes are
just different and, and the the sound carries in a different
way. And you can have a really loud
52,053 and it's like Mackie Arena is insanely loud in
basketball, sometimes louder than Assembly Hall, despite
having essentially 3500 fewer people in it.
I think it is. And so it's not unheard of.
And I expect IU fans to be in full voice once again for this
one. Maybe not as full voice, it says
Nebraska because Nebraska's a little better known, like brand
name to go against. But I think people will get up
for Washington as well. And all the other items going
alongside at this weekend are going to help add into that.
I don't know if you saw Mike Pennix.
Yeah, I saw that. He said he wanted Washington to
win. I mean, it makes sense, yeah.
I don't know anybody here anymore.
Blame them for that, you know? But yeah, I think there's a
there's a little, there's a little juice in this one.
I think for for Indiana against Washington.
And it's the just the weird like Indiana connections to
Washington and stuff. I just think that, you know,
people, people know Washington. A lot of IU fans were watching
Washington last year. So it'll it's interesting,
especially with, I mean, Jed Fish was tied to this job
opening and, and, and there was a name being being thrown around
before they hired Curtis Ignati. And so, you know, and I talked
about this in the preview too, that these these two programs
just in really kind of unprecedented positions at the
same time and that you know, is basically Arizona Light and
James Madison. Right I.
Know and and I think they're going to be tied for the next
few years. So this is kind of the first
plot point there in that, you know, it's it's there, it's it's
the the first meeting in the in two year ones.
They both hired new coaches and both accepted these transplanted
systems. And I just, I find the whole
game just extremely interesting. There's a lot of different ways
to to do a lot of different entry points into this game.
Absolutely should be a lot of fun to watch and we're looking
forward to being there in person to watch it and then we will
talk about it, of course afterwards.
Taylor, as always, a pleasure to have you on the show and I
appreciate your insights as always and we'll look forward to
doing this again next week. Yeah, thanks for having me on.
Yeah, that sounds great. Thanks to all you folks for
tuning in. Just a reminder folks, we will
not have a recorded podcast on Friday, but we will be live at
the Upstairs Pub from 5:00 to 6:00 PM.
Got some special guests joining us for that hour as we get ready
for the weekend. Tied in with home field apparel
over there as well. So that'll be a lot of fun.
So be sure if you can. If you're in Bloomington, stop
by the Upstairs Pub 5:00 to 6:00.
I will be there and I will look forward to talking with you.
And also reminder, we will have our normal recap podcast from
the weekend coming up on Sunday. You can check that out on
Crimson Cast. Subscribe to the sub stack
crimsoncast.substack.com. It's free and you can get your
podcast episode delivered right to your e-mail address.
For Taylor Lehmann, I'm Galen Clavio, thanks for joining us
here on the show. Indiana plays this Saturday at
noon on Big 10 Network game day in town.
Should be a lot of fun. We'll catch you folks.
On the flip side, bring back the Bison.
Stay never daunted. So long, everybody.