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Welcome back to Crimson, Cask ale, and klaviyo.
Joining you here? It's Friday night.
The 21st of October, as we get ready for this weekend's game
between. The Indiana Hoosiers football
team and the Rutgers Scarlet Knights Indiana three and four
on the season. Coming into this one as they
take on a Rutgers team that hasn't been a whole lot better
on the season that Indiana has. This is really not a sexy
matchup. I'll be the first to say that
but it's an interesting one and I think one that is going to be
maybe fascinating some too strong of a word, but certainly
a curiosity as Indiana. Desperately desperately needs a
win, they have lost four games in a row after winning their
first three and they're kind of staring down the barrel of, you
know, some really bad things happen in down the stretch here.
If they can't figure out a way to pull this one out.
So we talked about that one briefly and just talk about what
Indiana is going to need to do, if they want a chance in this
game. First of all, just a reminder,
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All right, let's talk about Indiana versus Rutgers.
The Scarlet. Knights coming into this game
with a 3 and 3 record on the season.
Actually their season is largely We mirrored Indiana's - the Big
Ten victory that Indiana's got against Illinois, Rucker so far
on the season, for those who haven't been keeping up, they
beat Boston College by one to start off the season, they beat
Wagner by a lot of points, 59 points to be exact, and they
barely beat Temple at Temple, and that was kind of the sign
that things may be, were not, all right, in Schiano land, and
they followed that up with some really dismal offensive
performances. The last four weeks, Including
that Temple game, they've scored 16 10 10 and 13 points as
they've lost to Iowa, Ohio, State, and Nebraska, that
Nebraska game in particular, was that was a tough one to watch as
it look, you know, running a Rutgers jumped out to a lead and
Nebraska who we've seen, who's not a very good team.
Somehow found a way to come back and win that one.
So you know this Rutgers team really does have a lot in
common. I think, just statistically with
Indiana Rutgers averaging 22 points. 8 on the season but
that's almost entirely because of that Wagner game.
They're giving up 22 points per game.
Meanwhile Indiana averaging 25 and a half points a game but
giving up 31 and a half points per game.
And you know while you certainly you can look at Indiana and say
well their offense showed something last week and that
they know the 33 points they scored against Maryland, they
also gave up 38 points on defense, they lost that game
obviously. And so the big question it's
like does Indiana have what it takes From an offensive
perspective to score enough points that they you know, get
it, you know put themselves in a good position to win, can they
simply outscore this Rutgers team but then the flip side is
also can I use defense who has really struggled so far this
season figure out a way to put it together and give Indiana a
chance to win. As, you know, they've frankly I
think the as much as the offense has struggled for this Indiana
team, the defense has I struggled just as much and
certainly that showed last week as Indiana was just simply
incapable of stopping Maryland at times when they frankly
should have been able to stop. Maryland, you look at this
Rutgers team overall. I mean you know if we take the
PFF College grades, they've really struggled offensively at
inopportune times. And last week, the real problem
for this team was there. Passing game, I mean, they're
passing game graded Out Among the worst passing games.
We've seen from any team in college football so far this
season and it wasted, what was frankly, a very good defensive
game from Rutgers where they their defense really played out
of their skulls. They had a great pass rush.
They are they defended the run very well against Nebraska.
Now, Nebraska helped on that front quite a bit simply because
they're, they're not very good on offense, but it was not
enough. And unfortunately, Lee for
Rutgers, they find themselves in this position where there's
don't have a quarterback at the end of the day and you look at
the numbers that they've racked up thus far Evans.
Simon the sophomore quarterback has had to play but only four
touchdowns six interceptions. 71 completions out of a hundred and
twenty three attempts, only seven hundred and forty yards so
far on the season. You look at Noah vendrell, your
thought mail, maybe he would be able to come in and do something
this year. But his whole career has been a
Of a disappointment and he is barely thrown the ball.
He's only played in two games thus far this season, you know,
running the ball Rutgers that mean, their nominal starting
running back as a freshman Samuel Brown, the fifth, don't
see a whole lot of fifths and in college football and then you've
got a pair of sophomores that are second and third in total
rushing yardage Kyle manang guy and I'll shitty Salam and that
is generally a bad sign if you're relying entirely on
freshman and Sophomores to carry the load on the the rushing side
of things, you're probably going to be struggling.
Now their offensive line is also not been particularly great this
year but overall I mean they when they run the ball, they run
the ball, okay? It's just that the Run blocking
has not been particularly good. If you trust what you're seeing
in terms of the overall numbers, this is where this game gets
difficult to judge because Indiana, frankly has not looked
very good either, in a lot of ways Indiana's Run game.
Mirrors what we see from Rutgers where they've had individual
good performances from running backs on certain plays.
But when you grade everything out so much of it is hard to
grayed out because the offensive line has not been able to do.
Its job, particularly effectively, I think the
difference between these two teams right now offensively is
that Indiana's passing game hard as this might be.
For some of you folks to believe, has actually performed
better than Rutgers passing game and I mean that follows in the
grave It follows in the overall statistics and that's not to say
that Indiana is passing game has been good, it's just that
Indiana's passing game. Has been better than Rutgers on
the flipside, Rutgers defense. You know, if you take that, Ohio
State game out of the equation, which I think is fair, I think
we're going to want to do that with Indiana's when they play
Ohio State later overall there. I think they're running game has
been pretty good or is he's me their defensive games and Pretty
good overall. They played very well against
Boston College. And Against Temple and they
played very well against Nebraska, you know, not as well
obviously against the other two teams they played in the
conference. But To some degree.
The question you have to ask yourself at that point, as well
as Indiana, like, Iowa, and Ohio, State, or is Indiana more
like Nebraska. And unfortunately, you have to
say that Indiana is a bit more, not like Nebraska, especially
since Indiana lost to Nebraska and gave up a decent amount of
points while doing so this Hoosiers team coming into the
season, has just excuse me. Coming into this game throughout
the course of this season has just not been able to perform a
whole lot of offensively. And it's actually I'd say gotten
slightly worse over the last two weeks than it had been even in
the first part of the season when Indiana was winning and
scoring points. But largely because the
opposition they were playing wasn't necessarily great or I
mean it's hard to take that Illinois game.
Seriously, at this point, how given, how well, Illinois has
played and how poorly Indiana's played, since then overall.
But I think that there's there's enough here from a statistical
perspective. Where when you look at Indiana,
you say, okay, if they can keep Rutgers out of the offensive
Back Field, that they've probably got a pretty good shot
in this game, simply, because we've seen so little out of the
Rutgers offense, that it's hard to Envision the Rutgers offense,
suddenly putting it together and figuring out how to score a
bunch of points against Indiana's defense.
And, you know, that's going to be the big question.
In my mind is like, how many points does Rutgers score, does
Indiana take advantage of, you know, what is not a terribly
impressive passing game? Do they load up against the run
and essentially dare Rutgers to beat them through the air?
You know, is that the ticket that they go with and you know,
if that's the case and they're able to pull that off, I think
they've got a really good chance of Victory because Rutgers just
has not shown a propensity for being able to do a whole lot
through the air and you know, Indiana's run defense while I
think it has deteriorated a bit over the course of the last few
weeks should be able to be up to the challenge of keeping Rutgers
run offense in check at least one would hope the other
question. Of course, we talked about this
going into the, the Maryland game is what do the the
turnovers look like for this game?
So far on the season, Rutgers has a turnover margin of exactly
zero. They have Given up 10 and they
have taken away 10 and so you're looking at it from that
perspective, this is not a Rutgers team that has thrived in
the turnover game and you know, so then you look at Indiana and
you're like okay is this an Indiana team that might be able
to take advantage of things because Indiana while it looked
bad. Certainly in the game against
Maryland at the end of the day I mean they're only - 3 on the
season and the -3 came entirely out of the Maryland game.
They were even going into that game.
So If Indiana is able to keep it copacetic, in terms of the
turnover situation, they're not given the ball to Rutgers,
they're not given the Rutgers offense.
Opportune field position they should, I think be okay in this
contest at least one would hope because, you know, kind of Basil
a cake. If you go read, bite-sized bison
by Taylor Layman. He's been pressured.
So heavily this season, you know, when he hasn't been
pressured heavily, he has been able to complete some Yes, but
that's been so rare. And this is probably the one
game left on the schedule that you could point to and say
Indiana's offensive line should be able to give him sufficient
time to find receivers and get the ball to them.
And that's probably going to be the key to victory for Indiana
if they're able to jump on Rutgers early.
Move the ball through the air and not turn the ball over
unnecessarily. They should have enough cushion
to be able to do all of that simply because I don't know that
Rutgers is necessarily going to be up to the task of
penetrating. The backfield, consistently
making Connor basal-like uncomfortable on a regular
basis. And if he's got that extra
second or two that he didn't have against Maryland, didn't
have against Michigan, didn't have really against Nebraska
that might give him enough space, to be able to find Camp
camper or any of his other receivers.
At the ball down, the field, effectively.
And I think if Indiana is able to score, if they had a scores
24 points in this game, I have a real hard time seeing a
situation where Rutgers is going to be able to score. 25 points
to beat Indiana and less Indiana beats themselves, either through
shoddy line play or turning the ball over or some combination
there in that's about as as tepid case for optimism, as I
can come up with, but it's see how I feel, you know, clearly
both of these teams are not particularly good football
teams. And I think that, for, for
Indiana, in particular, it's it's, it's on.
It's not just unfortunate. It's, it's a bit sad that
they're if the spot that they're at right now.
But this is the kind of game that can help to change that
narrative a bit if they can go into this game and they can take
advantage of playing a relatively weak opponent on the
road. Then, to some degree.
I mean, I'm not gonna say All Is Forgiven, but now you're back to
4 and 4. And you've at least got to
essentially, seesaw, types of games, potentially left on the
schedule between Michigan State and Purdue.
I mean, pretty was playing well. But at least that games at home
that, you know, you least give yourself a Fighting Chance
Rutgers, you know, clearly last year they they kind of
overachieved a bit and if you forgotten, you know, Rutgers
last year was A bit of a surprise team overall, in terms
of how they perform down the stretch, of course, they blew
Indiana out in the game that they played last year in
Bloomington, you know, and they finished last season five and
eight, you know, they end up going to a bowl in kind of a,
you know, a weird circumstance. And, you know, they had a couple
of good wins last year. They won at Illinois, 22:14.
They know they kept it close at Michigan.
They only lost by seven last year.
They it's the guess, the thing that concerns me is they only
had three games last year total where they scored more than 19
points. Are they at four games last year
with the scored more than 19 points?
One of those games was against Illinois, one of those games was
against Delaware, one of those games was against Temple and one
of those games against Indiana and they actually scored the
third most points that they scored All Season against
Indiana at Indiana. The Delaware game was at home,
the temple game was at home and the Illinois game while that was
on the road, that was not exactly an offense Fest.
They only won that game 2214. So, you know, if I have some
trepidation and picking Indiana, it's kind of twofold one fpi,
which is ESPN's predictor, gives Rutgers at 58 percent, chance of
Victory. Now, I think a lot of that is
kind of twofold. It's a, it's an artifact of the
fact that the gain is a At Rutgers, so they do get a bit of
a bump there, but be Rutgers does look a lot better in terms
of the metrics in terms of the analytics than Indiana.
Does Indiana looks real bad. Right now, in the analytic, this
is not me talking. This is PFF College, you know?
They have Indiana graded. I think is the second worst
Power 5 team in total across all of college football.
I think the only team that they've got rated worse than
them is Colorado. And, you know, you look at some
of the Their metrics and Indiana's like a bottom, five
power Conference team. In offensive efficiency, there a
bottom five defensive team in defensive efficiency in the
power 5 and Rutgers while they haven't looked good, hasn't
looked that bad like they have not looked bottom of the barrel
like Indiana has looked for much of these games and to some
degree that that Illinois win, that, that Indiana picked up has
given them. And frankly, the Western
Kentucky game too. To, which was for those of you
forgotten an overtime game against the Western Kentucky
name that has turned out to not be very good that Western
Kentucky team, that's lost some games that kind of make you
scratch your head like those two wins have papered over a team
that realistically should probably have like one maybe two
wins on the year. If you look at their efficiency
numbers and if you look at the way that they're graded out in
terms of the observational elements of of the grading
systems for football, That is really what gives me pause.
You know, we put a poll out on Crimson cast last night on
Twitter. What do you want out of a
preview podcast? And, you know, the winner, not
the runaway winner, but the winner of that was Good Vibes.
So I'm trying my best to give some good vibes on this by
saying, you know, looking at Rutgers offensive struggles and
looking at the fact that Indiana when they've been able to keep
pressure off of counter basil, act has shown the ability in
those rare moments. Moments to move the ball,
through the air. I like Indiana slightly.
I mean, I'm talking about, I like Indiana by three or four
points. I think it's as likely to be a
slug Fest, but this is the kind of game given the struggles that
Rutgers is had offensively that Indiana should win.
And frankly where Indiana has indicated that, they think they
should be, as a program. It's a game.
They absolutely have to win, you know, because to lose this game
and to lose two years in a row to Rutgers Actually States.
Well, we're below Rutgers in the pecking order and you've already
essentially established now that you're behind Maryland in the
pecking order as well because now you've lost to Marilyn two
times in a row. And so these are the kinds of
things that you know, I I tend to think Indiana is going to
look at that, they're going to focus on a particular game plan
that has a chance of working because if they can score some
points early, if they can get off to to a good start
offensively and get some points on the board.
They might just Be able to get too far ahead of Rutgers for
Rutgers to be able to adequately come back.
The downside, all of that is the statistics do not back that up
and Greg Schiano is a real good coach, Greg Schiano, you know, I
think to some degree, people have forgotten, how good of a
coach he is. I think he demonstrated it last
year with, you know, what was a Rutgers team that was not?
Well, put together, he did, you know, he had taken over that
roster and had to figure stuff out on the Fly and somehow
managed to piece together a good season.
And these are not the games that Indiana tends to do well.
And I mean, it is a rarity still and historically for Indiana to
thrive in games on the road, in the Big Ten and you know,
Rutgers is not been an exception even in 2020, Indiana struggled
a bit in that game versus Rutgers.
People have kind of forgotten that game but that was that was
not an easy game for Indiana to win.
So I'm going to pick Indiana and this one, you know, I'm going to
say Indiana is going to win. Say 24 to 20 but I would be
leery. I don't know that I would, if
you're a wagering person I don't know that I would put any money
on this game at all because there's a lot of intangibles, a
lot of things with both teams that could go wrong or could go
right, that are very difficult to figure out ahead of time.
So, anyway, I'm not sure if that's good vibes or just
trepidation, but we'll see what happens with this Indiana team
and hopefully, they can figure out a way to pull this out.
Get themselves back up to 500 get a second, Big 10 win.
Maybe set themselves up for the bye week with a more positive
attitude and mentality, which I think is going to be important
for this team as they move forward.
Anyway, that's going to wrap it up for us today, we will be back
with basketball. Talk coming up soon.
We'll also have our postgame podcast, probably coming up on
Sunday. We might get ambitious and
recorded Saturday, some time, but be expected on Sunday as it
normally comes through. I appreciate all you folks for
listening in as always and I hope you have a pleasant weekend
for Crimson Castle. Last.
I am Galen klaviyo. Will catch you.
Folks on the flip side? Bring back the Bison, so
everybody