You're listening to the back home network, presented by home
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Everybody Scott here with you. Have a great discussion today.
With Joe from 131 Sports, you can find his sight on Twitter at
131 Sports. Just the numbers 131, or online
at again, 131 sports.com. Just the numbers 1 through 10.
The word sports.com, if you go to bracket Matrix, which if you
don't, you should, it's awesome. It has almost everybody who does
Bracketology all of their rankings and you can see teams
kind of there. Average seed line, but they have
the ratings and winners every year, and Joe and 131 Sports.
2018 was the champion of the racket Matrix and currently is
the six best Bracketology just having been on their 10 years
with just some amazing scores. So, suffice to say, Joe
definitely knows his stuff. He also is a graduate of
University of Michigan, so we won't hold that against him, but
he definitely keeps up with the Big Ten as his conference of
choice. So I thought it'd be great to
talk to him about the Big Ten as a whole kind of get a higher
30,000 foot view of where Indiana sits the Big Ten.
Bracketology, it's a great conversation.
We have some rants here, there we kind of go on some tangents
as I am want to do and it's a, it's a good time before we get
to that. One of the big, big shout out to
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up there. So without further Ado, we'll go
to Joe at 131 Sports All right, we're glad to have Joanne from
131 Sports can go to the website, 131 sports.com, or
Twitter at 131 Sports. I was looking to, you know, I
want to help people understand Bracketology a little bit more
kind of where Indiana fits in. And oh Galen talks about this a
lot but I thought it'd be good to have somebody else and kind
of just look a little bit larger at the Big Ten field.
And if you follow a bracket Matrix online, one of the better
sites that has a all of the Bracketology.
Turns out there, they have a ranking section and Joe, you've
been ranked, like, in the top five for the last, like, what 10
or 12 years, you've been really up there on your bracket
projection. So, hey what?
Well done and not bad for a Michigan grad.
Hey, well, then that last day we had to get that jab in there.
Yeah, no, yeah. I've been passionate about this,
you know, so I graduated U of M, 2012.
And right after I graduated, is when I got into Bracketology,
been doing it. So, it's been a decade.
Jade black my rankings have in terms of rankings and where I
fall, certainly have have exceeded my expectations from
when I started to where I'm at now, but I don't want to let you
to the toot, my horn, rather than being myself.
So I appreciate the shout out but hopefully the performance
can continue and hopefully I can provide some insight that the
listeners or appreciate, I think so.
And it's funny. We I reached out to you right
after Indiana beat Michigan, you're like, Hope you have to
talk about that. And then we went ahead and lost
lost at Northwestern. So you want to, if you want a
real on that, it's funny. The Michigan thing, you know,
and I'll put this on Twitter for our listeners to like somebody
asked me a while ago, like you know who are your top Rivals?
The Big Ten it's like all right obviously Purdue.
And then I took a breath and it's like well like I don't know
because like it's I do is after we played Illinois because in
the Big Ten Network all the talking about like you know the
Rivalry the Rival. It's I don't I don't know.
Think of Illinois is a rival for Indiana and it's like who are
our secondary rivals? Is.
And I came to like, you know, at least right now, Rutgers has
been kicking our ass. And, you know, brought Harper
jr. Is dropping his balls on
assembly calls court, but I was like, you know, oddly Michigan's
in a weird rival because it feels like whenever we're up
there up, you know, if we had the the 2012 2013 run were like
we were good and you guys were good.
We're fighting for the Big Ten title, and fortunately, we've
been so down so much. I'm just, I'm curious how you
would rank, you know, obviously Ohio, State, Michigan State her
up there for you, but where where you look at your other
Owls in the Big Ten if Indiana cracks the top three or four.
So, certainly if we're sticking to basketball and being
basketball specific than Michigan State far away as our
primary rival, Ohio State certainly just as as, as it
relates to football and being a rival school.
But the Rivalry in basketball just isn't, I mean, it isn't
even in the same atmosphere as it is in football.
So other than just a distaste for the state of Ohio and Ohio
State, Yep, that rivalry not not really, honestly, all that
strong. I, it's funny that this rivalry
has really developed. I've seen this rivalry kind of
flush itself out on Twitter, is the Rivalry when Illinois and
something about Illinois fans. And I think it had something to
do with the according to the Illini fan base, the, the
ducting that Michigan performed in order to win the Big Ten
title and not have to split. During the, the covid shortened
season. Yep, or covid.
Altered season. I should say.
So some of those games got cancelled rescheduled, we ended
up not playing. Illinois played less big ten
games in them, but are winning percentage was higher.
So we technically were the Big Ten Champions and so between
that and there was a lot of chirping on Twitter there.
That, that rivalry kind of has really flourished in the last
year or so, and I'm so focused on that mission.
In state rivalry, that that's the primary Runway.
I don't, I mean Indiana just by dint of the fact that they've
had some success and Wilson came in and there, you know, like a
they're a better team than they were under cream.
Other than you know, like the year where they were one seed.
But then I ended up buying out a little bit earlier than I think
most Indiana fans had hoped for they.
They're only a rivalry in the sense of their their good team.
We that we don't want to over there not Nebraska, they're not,
you know, like the just Rutgers prior to their their more recent
Ascension to the actually being a competitive team.
They're a good team in the Big Ten recently.
So to that extent there, a minor rival but it's it's so focused
on Michigan state that it's hard to go beyond the primary rival.
My I get that, as funny as you're struggling.
Like to hear you're thinking like, you know, who are the Bad
teams that goes all truckers. It's like, well, it's not
Northwestern anymore. It's like, kind of like minute,
Minnesota, and maybe bio State like Ohio State sucking wind as
somebody who follows will get to the bracket stuff in a bit.
If somebody just kind of follows the Big Ten as a whole, just
kind of wanted to get like a larger perspective, you know,
we're we're stuck in our Indiana bubble and we see things kind
of, you know, wins losses. There was a period in, you know,
the after that Penn State loss in early January, where we were
as Indiana fans. Be pretty freaking out.
We're not in a good spot ten and six overall, but 14 in the Big
Ten, we go on a five-game winning streak than we, you
know, just finished a three-game winning streak, be lost in
Northwestern although I think there's really no shame in that
although the first half didn't look awesome.
But from a larger Point View, how do you see Indiana?
Do you you know I've been I've been kind of saying that you
know as Indiana fans we have a hard time kind of.
We've been just trying to claw our way into the tournament.
That you know we're not quite used to it as weird as an
Indiana fan saying this, but we're not used to like kind of
what a profile of a 45 seed looks like and to me it's like
this is what a profile of a force five seed.
Looks like a team that that has some good moments has some bad
moments has some good stretches bad stretches and but I think a
lot of Indiana fans. Look at this season.
They're kind of still scared at the you know when we had the the
month-long Swoon so to speak. I'm curious how you view it as
somebody who's outside the bubble, how you view Indiana
because a trend line up down Sideways.
You know, what are you seeing? Well, certainly in terms of
referencing last night's game, there's absolutely like you lost
on the road to a, another clear tournament team.
You know, Northwestern from their perspective, skipping out
before I dive into the, the Indiana perspective
northwestern's trending up, you know, like yeah.
A couple couple weeks ago. I had them as one of the might
have even been 10 days ago. I had them as one of the last
four teams in and it's just the quality of their wins the way
they've shifted in the black box, that is than that and how
the profile looks, they're trending upwards.
I my most recent bracket that I just released prior to coming on
here, I Northwestern is the seven.
So there there is no shame in losing that.
Especially the the like you alluded to the shame was more in
the performant, the flat performance in the first half,
but there's something admirable. I know people aren't necessarily
into moral victories, all the all the time, but that second
half comeback and making it a competitive game.
Certainly bodes well for the team as opposed to just getting
house and sees. It's also helpful in booboo,
he's able to just push off, you know, his guard guy to get a
layup, but you know what else? Yeah, that's another
conversation. Big Ten officiate fishing, any
goddamn entirely, that's the soda.
I'm sure that's a whole other podcast.
Yeah, disservice to the entire Big Ten when they get into the
tournament but although I yes we'll get on that.
I will say this is something my co host Galen has got me into
and now I feel like, you know, Charlie from something steal
Sunny in Philadelphia with the crazy board.
If you go on to Ken Palms site and you can pull the rest, you
can actually see their game log schedule.
And it is, it's bananas. When you see how many games,
these guys are working where they're working them.
Like they were his, an Indiana, Michigan State game.
Or I think one of the rest had worked seven straight games in
seven states, for seven days up to that game.
And it's just like, it's it's like you, you know, we look at
race tracks and Davis, he's like 24:23, you know, a young kid in
great shape. And we're like, man.
It's gonna be tough for him to recover again after playing 40
minutes. You know, in five days, it's
like one of the 58 year old guy who's doing the seven days
throwing flying Southwest from, you know.
Anyway, sorry it's a something I've been noticing and it's
like, it's bananas that the Big Ten allows rest to work other
leagues and just work as much as they do.
Anyway, sorry, Grant over. Yeah, no, that's it.
It's a reasonable rent to make. But the the, the importance of
having that come back and having that game be Of from a net
perspective and since the introduction of the net and the
incorporation of efficiency and margin of Victory and everything
that goes into where team is seated because the committee I'm
going to get on my soapbox a little bit here, the committee,
the composition of the committee is not what I would like to see
out of the committee because it's a lot of people that don't
watch enough basketball. That see these teams on paper
and make decisions, often time with some recency bias, Maybe
they started watching games in the second half of February, and
the beginning of March. And that's they've seen a team
play once or twice and they have to be really reliant on these
shortcuts in order to adequately and appropriately.
Try to appropriately, see these teams.
So I would really like to see again, this is me on my soapbox.
I really like to see these people that know college
basketball, and watch these teams be more on the committee
and less 80s and college presidents in these people that
aren't watching. All these other teams that just
kept rely on paper. But on paper that come back is
really important because you know like going into that game,
the opening line I checked this before, I came on the opening
line Was northwestern by point the Northwestern with my to.
So from an analytics perspective had they lost that game by 20
then they might have dropped a few spots in the net but it
doesn't look as good and every spot matters when you're
distinguishing these teams on these razor thin margins.
And You know, like, losing to another tournament team like
Northwestern on the road. That's a quad one loss.
And I've actually looked at this from a more analytical
perspective. I have a, I've rely on it a
little bit, but I tend to rely on my own evaluation of these
teams a little bit more because there's only so much that can go
into these models but I do have a model that evaluates how the
committee has seeded teams in the past at least since the
introduction of the net. Net and tries to incorporate
that past seating those paths eating patterns in order to make
a projection of where they're going to be seated now.
And a quad one loss, is better than a quad for win.
So bad winds and I don't think this will come as a large
surprised anybody that's been paying attention to how
committee seeds teams. You get teams that are
Michigan's a perfect example, last year, getting in it,
whatever we were 17 and 14 going into the tournament.
Because a lot of quad one losses, they really really value
just playing quality teams, even if it's a loss and close losses,
do matter. So that from Indiana's
perspective last night was not, you know, like going into last
night, I had Indiana as the, the top five seed and I have them as
the top five seats till today. So that's just your case in
point of a loss does not. Move you down to see line or
wind? Doesn't move you up to see line.
There's so many things and play that good losses, really?
I moved teams up a seed line because they've had a good loss
and the team ahead of them on that seed line had a bad loss.
So there's just it's you have to really take everything into
account when when when performing Bracketology knowing
that and that's something like you hit on that.
I think is I've I've learned to over the last, you know, seven
or eight years I've done. More into the numbers and talk
to Galen about this that it's like you know rankings like the
AP rankings are just way different than Bracketology and
like just because you lose the game doesn't mean you
automatically lose a scene I meant.
Now what's weird is Indiana was kind of projected as a four seed
in most projections they lost and the ones I'm seeing this
morning, they're coming in as a five and so in this case it kind
of seemed to have happened but it's like that's more just
because I think they were the last for another the number 15,
I do think. And like you said it's not an
Vacuum like your kind of fighting with your Indiana.
You're fighting with like st. Mary's, Miami, Florida.
Iowa State. Connecticut Gonzaga.
You know, the problems you have is teams like Saint.
Mary's just aren't going to lose that many more times gonzaga's
not going to lose that many more times or they're not getting
Goodwin's. Indiana is, you know, you look
at the rest of their schedule, really it's probably all quad
One games, the rest of the way, you know, I'm looking at it now.
I don't, I think maybe the Michigan game might be a tear
to, but I have to look Kat where Michigan's and like, where
they're going to be having right now, that's still showing as a
tier one win for Indiana. So it's but that was on the
road, it's like there's so many factors at play.
It was quite work that way. I do think that the way that I
will say what Indiana's starting to lose by losing that game at
Northwestern as I think their path to a three seed is getting
a lot tighter. Just based on the teams above
them and the work. They would have to do to get
there. Yeah, they're the nice thing
about the the Big Ten is the depth, I mean it's a lot of
frankly. It's a lot of mediocrity from a
tournament caliber team perspective because you have a
lot of teams, you know, like if you look at, I'm going to pull
up my most recent Bracketology, but I have Northwestern as a 7.
Ayah was a seven, Rutgers is a seven Michigan State as an, a
Maryland as an eight. So you have a A lot of those mid
tier teams and I don't have Indiana schedule in front of me
like you do, but those opportunities if you, you know,
like if you win all of the games, you're supposed to and
then steal game or two that you're maybe not supposed to
win, then maybe I think that they're stealing could be as
high as a three. But again, it's not in a vacuum.
You need to see how those teams in front of them do and to to
your reference with the tussle with Saint Mary's and Gonzaga is
If Indiana exceeds expectations to close the expectations for
st. Mary's and Gonzaga are twin
pretty much all of their games Beyond playing each other.
So if they can match tit-for-tat from a win-loss perspective or
even somewhere close that, it's going to look, it's going to
bode well for Indiana because those the quality of opposition
is just so much higher. So this Sunday I believe is when
doesn't the committee come out this Sunday and do their first
kind of for top for protected seed, kind of projection.
Isn't that when you like a Bracketology, you get some idea
of what the committee is, is putting into that Stu this year
because me every year it's like they kind of focus on something
a little bit different. And it feels like this is we're
coming up on that area where you can kind of get a feel for what
the committee might be, you know, putting a little more
weight on this year. Yeah.
So that the bracket preview show is I believe on Saturday, at
least I haven't documented asset.
Okay bye. David warlock is a good follow
for that. Kind of information on Twitter.
I believe I saw him say that it's on Saturday probably around
I could very well be wrong. Maybe like Saturday at noon
that's what is in my memory anyway.
So that show is certainly a calibration point for any
Bracketology just that that is worth their weight.
And so I'll be paying attention certainly to that and to your
point and to my dismay as a Bracketology That likes to
especially so my as a professional I'm an actuary.
So I love I don't for those 99% of the population may may or may
not have heard of what an actuary is.
But essentially, they do risk management and quantification
for insurance and Consulting companies.
Anyway, they the the primary use of what they do on the job is
looking at past data and and evaluating that in order to
project, what's going to happen in the future.
So when you As a committee that changes like you said what goes
into the stew every year and you're looking for patterns
they're like oh what's their pattern going to be this year?
They relied on something else last year and it's just kind of
a pain to deal with the shifting of the committee and the shift
of their focus. And it's like oh well if they
seeded teams like they did last year then they're going to do
this. But then they're like oh well
this year we focused in on some other thing and it just kind of
bugs me a little bit but it is this that bracket preview shows
a great opportunity to Calibrate where you're at, you know, like,
when it comes out, I immediately as any Bracketology should
shifts their top four seeds and I redo my bracket to align with
what the committee does that day.
And then, you know, like calibrated from there, but I'll
align with how they come out. And I like to for anyone that
wants to follow me on Twitter, I do prior to the show, put out,
you know, like my projection because most people I think, at
this point are focusing on seating and less on.
Oh, who are we? Play when you get down to the
nitty-gritty and, you know, like and Conference tournament
territory, then you can or even honestly what you get in the
March early. March, you can kind of, think
about I who's likely for infirmity, Anna's perspective.
If they're on the 45 line, who's likely to be a 12 or 13?
That's kind of in the geographic proximity of us that we could
play. How do we match up with them?
You can start thinking about that a little bit later, but now
people are more focused on seating.
So, to that extent seeing those first four lines and you also
get the To see what's nice about that, especially from Indiana's
perspective. Is they the, the committee will
talk about other teams, they consider.
So you can see if Indiana doesn't crack those top four
lines. If they're at least, they'll
usually put at least two other teams that they consider.
So those you can glean as like the top five seats.
So you can see really weird because Indiana is going to be
right in the thick of things for that.
So you if it comes out and Indiana's and in the top four
and they're In the other teams considered category, then you
might glean that. Hey, the committee isn't doesn't
view the Big Ten as finely as Big Ten fans might wish they
did. I mean, that's and here fucking
to an IU grad and IU fan on Indiana podcast.
So, take it with a grain of salt if we're not in at least the
other considered. I don't know what the committee
is looking at. And I gotta say, I like Indiana
has a Sterling, at that point. We will have not played
Illinois, but it's like you look at every metrics for Indiana.
And, I mean, we have, you know, based on net Northwestern is a,
as a tier 2 loss. But we have no tier 3 losses, no
tier 4 losses, all of our other losses are Tier 1.
We have, I'm not arguing with you.
I'm just like that would be, that would be shocking if we
weren't in at least that area. It does.
So to, I have a Twitter question based on this, but I do want to
ask you this first like, as somebody dumb.
Maybe. But why does the committee
changed their their metrics every year, or like why wouldn't
they just say? Kind of, here's what we're
looking at here, is what you need to shoot for and then teams
can kind of schedule. According like, why does it feel
like some years is all based on non-conference scheduling some
years it's based on, you know, quad or net.
One wins. Like why do they change their
emphasis year to year? So this is just a hypothesis.
I I wish I knew the answer because then I could.
You know, look into the pattern of how they shift it and who so
the first I guess I'll step back.
The first part isn't so much. A hypothesis is a known fact,
the the composition of the committee changes year to year
and who's the head of the? There's a certain got it, you
know like who heads up the committee?
I think they get a two-year stint and then it changes every
two years who's the head of the committee.
And then I don't quote me on this but I'm these numbers are
in my head. I believe you have a five-year
term on the committee but its role So it's not like there's a
brand new committee every five years.
Look, some committee members shift on during their the Cycles
differed from one another and who's heading up the committee
differ. So, just based on that alone and
what a given Committee Member values and who falls on often,
who comes onto the committee, you can have shifting priorities
in terms of what they value from a resume perspective.
And then the, the cynic in me likes to think that The
community doesn't want coaches and ades and people that are
setting, these schedules to be able to figure out how to game
the system. And so they want them to have a
moving Target, all the time. So that's I can't say that for
with certainty, but that's my hypothesis that it's they don't
want to know the ingredients that go into this too because
then they can fine-tune their schedules or You like you might
have teams that run tried running up the score and games
in order to give their Advanced metrics.
It's just they don't they don't want that happening.
So for the for that sake that's I think that's the other thing
that kind of goes into it. And then you got Syracuse,
sitting there being like, well what are these years?
They're going to Value home wins against Bad opponents.
We're just going to continually schedule nothing but home games
against garbage opponents. And one of these years it's
going to just it's going to we're going to kill it.
That's behind being behind right there.
You've been It, it forever. Apropos of nothing.
I did I loved his comment where he's like something about like,
you know, I've earned the right to say when I'm gonna retire and
it's like, okay, well Jimmy, you're free to do it any point
like you are, you are like 78. Like, I people are waiting
anyway, not do cares about Syracuse.
We do have a question on Twitter from Matt Roth.
Appreciator love, the title lat. This is kind of a going to this
idea of like, what goes into, you know what?
The committee looks for last year.
Indiana was punished by the For its non-conference slate.
This year, the opponents were much tougher, does
non-conference strength of schedule help seed case, even if
the games were losses are Xavier game aside committee sets
confusing pressing on this. See University of Michigan last
year, which you obviously know. So I'm curious your thoughts on
that sure. So non-conference strength of
schedule is one of the, the what I've noticed in terms of the the
other than that. If because the net is the bread
and butter than that is going to be What you rely on.
That's why they developed the net and worked with Ken Palms.
Agron, and the advanced metrics that go into.
That is the RPI had come become a little bit outmoded, and they
wanted to incorporate that from what I can glean not, not
overly. So, they're still reliant on,
you know, like, the actual tangible performance, they don't
want to become overly reliant on what a team is capable of, but
it's rather. What did you actually do?
And What I've seen is that, that non-catholics non-conference
strength of schedule is a big thing, and more specifically to
the question having a strong non conference loss, is better than
having a week non-conference win.
It has been, it always. I think it always will be you if
you go back. I don't remember exactly what
what year it was, but there was a year where I'm pretty sure it
was during the net era where Michigan, State and Vanderbilt
Both got nine seeds at around 18 and 14, 18 and 13, 17 and 13.
There it was it was the lowest wind total.
I think that had, and they weren't even in the first four,
it was during the first four are and they weren't, they were
comfortable, they were on the 89 game.
So that, that is my that is the epitome of the, the valuing of
strength of schedule as a whole and non-conference strength is
scheduled plays into that, the one, Javier I will put is that
non conference takes place earlier in the year and the
committee tends to have some recency bias to a certain
extent. They this is a weird thing
pattern that I've noticed over the last three years and its
really frustrated me because I would have been that the bracket
Matrix rankings that you alluded to.
I would have been a little bit higher had I not succumb to
this, this particular pattern, the committee has recency bias
but they I've noticed that they severely early undervalue
Conference tournament performance because Conference
tournament performance is a hole of your resume but they they
have recency bias in terms of how did you close the regular
season and then they tend to be a little bit dismissive of the
conference tournament. I'm getting a little bit
tangential here to the question but the conference tournament
performance. If you look at where a team is
seated, going into the conference tournament and where
they end up in the There's not a, in my opinion, there's not
enough movement based on their conference tournament
performance. And the case in point was last
year, was Texas A&M being left out when they made a run to the
conference Championship in the SEC.
And if you put pair that with their resume as a whole going
into the conference tournament, they were certainly a tournament
team, but the committee was like, oh well we don't want to.
It's almost like they go in the other direction, like oh, we
don't want to overweight car. Efforts tournament so
performance so much that they underweight it.
But, but circling back to the actual question not conference
strength of schedule is a big deal that net obviously quad one
wins and losses, just quad quad. One games is a big thing and
those are the, what I referenced earlier.
Those are kind of, what's what I refer to as heuristics or
shortcuts for the committee that maybe doesn't get to see a lot
of these teams. And they're like, oh, what can
we rely on? Oh, well, Quad one wins and
losses. We know those are quality
opponents. We set this algorithm in a way
that we can use that as a shortcut to kind of identify the
the quality of games that a team played.
And from that perspective Indiana's, looking good because
they have 12 quad One games. Granted they're below, 500 but 5
and 7 in Quad one is better than 2 and 2 or something like that.
So yeah. And one thing you know I always
got bugged by you talk about. The schedule is always my
thought. You please correct me if I'm
wrong but I always felt like with you know the trouble with
with crean and his scheduling at the end for Indiana is like I'm
just going to go to his like the 2016 season is like it wasn't
that you know our non-conference we didn't play top-level
opponents but to me it was always like when you play like
Eastern, Illinois, or Alcorn State or McNeese State, you're
playing these teams that are, you know, in the Ken Palm 250
plus, and I would always say like that that basically is like
a zero if not a - to the committee like it just doesn't
do anything. And I would always say just just
play like Indiana State or somebody who's like in that
hundred 150 range in the in Ken Palm rankings and you're still
going to win, but you're not killing your schedule, an oddly
looking at our schedule this year before we thought of it,
like we're kind of hurting our non-conference.
You know, we have some high level, you know, the wind Xavier
was good, the North Carolina game, we played rukka, we played
a sorry, Arizona Kansas a good teams, but But I will say some
of those other teams like you look at you know Morehead State
Bethune-Cookman Little Rock Jackson State Elon, Kennesaw
State Kennesaw State is 143 so they're fine.
But like a lot of those teams I just mentioned are 250 or
harming Bethune-Cookman 351st and Ken Palm elon's 322nd.
Obviously you know teams don't always pan out the way you
expect them to. But you had if teams that are in
the three hundreds of Ken Palm, you probably knew they were
going to suck going into the year.
And I it feels like cream was doing that in a That was really
hurting our ability under crean to make tournament runs.
Is that our other non-conference wasn't there?
An oddly looking at this year? It's like, maybe that is what's
pulling our ratings down a little bit.
But like you said, if we're winning Big 10 games, really
doesn't matter. Yeah.
And and I found in tracking the net and where these teams come
out in terms of opportunities and trying to minimize the
number of quad for games, you have and get more quad three
games even just because, you know, like you're not going to
run, I don't know if you saw Michigan, State's non-conference
schedule will not everyone's going to be willing to do
something like that, where you just play an inordinate amount
of really, really good teams in a very short span, but To your
point. Yeah.
Trying to Target those teams that are going to be in that 125
to 200 range in the net. And you can use the the can the
the preseason rankings and Ken pom is a sort of proxy for that.
Those are going to be a great opportunities.
And just I mean any other states, a good example, anybody
that's in sort of a mid-tier conference instead of playing
someone from the meac or the swac, or the northeast, or one
of those, you know, Perennially 16c generating conferences,
played somebody from the Missouri Valley or somebody from
the summit or something, you know, like, you know, like and
and try not to play that, you know, like play them middle of
the road team from one of those conferences, because then you're
going to get when they get in the conference play those that
if you place them from the meac swac, whatever, they're, they're
only going to drop because they're just going to play a lot
of trash teams. And in conference, But if you
can play a middle-of-the-road team that still should be very
beatable from a mid-tier mid-major, then they're going to
be playing like even if they don't end up placing in the top
two or three in the conference, they're going to be playing a
team. That a couple of times a year,
they're going to be playing a team or two.
That is up there that they can lose to that they can then even
with that loss, improve their net.
So it's just from a scheduling perspective philosophically.
It's Coaches are really an 80s or really way better off
scheduling mid tier teams from a mid-tier mid-major than they are
like a high-end team from a terrible conference.
Yeah. And that's something as I look
at like you know Indiana versus Iowa State when you look at
their you know their resumes like Iowa State just has one to
four of eight you know, net Tier 1 wins.
Indiana, you know, has six. And then it's like we have, you
know, 37 tier 4 wins. They only have, you know, five
and again some of this is all fluid because like, you know,
unfortunately Minnesota's to your for, you know, Michigan
State for us that when you Michigan State's.
Now, a tier 2 team. They might move up to a tier
one, who knows? But it's all set.
I also want to go back real quick and just edit.
One thing I said I was looking at the wrong Northwestern game
are lost last night at Northwestern was eight.
Tier 1 loss, that's my mistake the loss at home, the
Northwestern is a tear to loss and then that I say that's my
fault, but also, it's like Indiana shouldn't be having two
losses in Northwestern any season.
So that's that's partially. That's partially Indiana's fault
as well. Before I go to the final kind of
like a couple just committee questions theories.
I want to run by you but just Big.
Ten is a whole kind of taken the Bracketology out of it.
Just as somebody who looks the numbers looks at all this.
You know who I'll ask you the question.
This week's think produce, definitely heads and tails
above, you know, everyone else, who do you see as the the second
best team in the Big Ten and maybe kind of give us your
thoughts on you know teams two through four.
If you can kind of break that that mess up a little bit.
Sure and talk any smack you want about to about, Purdue feel free
there that I can't talk to their having a phenomenally or my I
guess the the extent of the sea Mac, I can talk about Purdue is,
let's see what they actually do in the tournament, because Matt
Painter has a has a penchant for he's not quite to to Rick Barnes
level in terms of tournament, performance and underachieving.
But he, he, you know, like he has a penchant for, we'll see
how they do when they actually get in the tournament play.
But here's what I was telling a friend Jared part of the home,
network Jared from assembly call worth, you'll have the pencil.
It's gotten getting old to Purdue game together.
Weeks ago, you know, Edie gotten a for Ed, he got in foul trouble
because you know, he's only getting, you know, one point,
six fouls or 1.8 thousand game in the Big Ten, you know, just
him and every other guard the country, it's makes a lot of
sense. But you know, he had two fouls
in the first half, they benched him and then Purdue looked kind
of pedestrian. I mean, they're still great to
you. I'm not talking too much smack,
but they say it looks pedestrian.
They looked a little bit unsure without e.t. as any team would
without, you know, such a gravitational pull like that but
I was telling Jarrod like this This is what I think should
scare every Purdue fan at their core is this is going to happen
in the tournament like in the tournament he's going to be
called way differently. He's going to have a game maybe
to where he's in foul trouble and it's not going to be Indiana
that it's milk Alabama or somebody in the Elite 8 who's
going to be running up and down and you know I'm that's what I
think unfortunately is not enforced.
I think it's gonna happen to Purdue.
I think at the core every Purdue fan is frightened of that.
There will be a game where he gets three fouls in the first
half and They're staring down like, you know, two young
freshman guards playing, you know, super athletic guys, from
Alabama, or Houston and just being like, Oh my God, what's
happening to our season? Again, that's my thought.
I'm curious. If you see that happening to, or
if I'm just to Indiana base to make to view /, do you know
objectively know? I would be concerned if I was a
Purdue fan to be. Well, anytime you have a
Reliance on a, especially a Reliance on a big coming from
the Big Ten, and I mean, I Alluded to this when I made the
my joke, about the Big Ten officiating earlier was just,
they officiate it in a different, they don't let you
play football bath, tackle basketball.
When you get into the tournament, they officiated a
different way. And so, if you you get eating in
foul trouble, I agreed Purdue is that, I mean, they could Bow-Wow
out and 89 games. They get the wrong, they run
into the wrong team or certainly in the sweet 16 that becomes a
risk. So you need to You need to be
cautiously worried about that and try to and if I'm Matt
Painter, I'm preparing and not to put the cart before the
horse. But I'm preparing for how I
avoid facing that situation this.
But I mean like that's if I after selection Sunday but in
the interim between that and the start of the tournament, I'm
doing everything I can to say, how do we keep Zaki out of foul
trouble, because it changes the team dynamic.
McEntire lie. So, anyway, back to the original
question. I'm like, you know, how do you
see the rest of the Big Ten after that?
Yeah, I think Indiana's. The second best team in the Big
Ten. Forget the standings.
I think that Indiana is I don't. The Gap is large, certainly
between them and where I view Purdue I think produce Far and
Away the best team but Indiana I would have as the second-best
team. Illinois is right there too.
It seems like every time I want to be Confident that Indiana's
comfortably the second best team they really do.
Something that makes me question that any time I want to think.
Oh, maybe Illinois, surpassed them, they do something that
makes me question that. But I think there that's pretty
comfortably, two and three. And honestly, if I'm, you know,
like after the I think they're comfortably two and three and
after that, you got, that's where I get a little bit more
muddied. And and where I think you can
put, Michigan State, Maryland, Iowa and Rutgers and any which
order you want to put them in and any any point in time you
know. Like I think you know like you
want to think that that Rutgers at home is the that the rack is
a tough place to play but from remembering correctly.
I don't I pretty sure they just lost to Nebraska at Iraq the
other night and might might be misremembering.
It might have been on the road but I'm pretty sure that they
you know, like they That they lost at home drunk to Nebraska.
So knowing that was, yeah, yeah, so I'm saying that with
conference that oh man, Rutgers is impossible place to.
It's going to last place to win on the road and then they go and
do that. So it's like all of those, those
four teams. It's that's, that's the for I
kind of think of how I totally admitted Northwestern.
Sorry. I can't believe that skip my
mind, but yeah, Northwestern is Comfortably for and then those
sorry. I, I can't believe I forgot
those forgot about North. Estimate though.
Yeah, Northwestern is for despite the fact that they like
that, they swept Indiana. I still think that, that think
that might just be a matchup thing or, you know, like any,
it's anybody's guess how that happened.
But, yeah. So reconvening Purdue
comfortably. One Indiana, Illinois, tooth
pretty comfortably to I'd say two and three Northwestern for
and then those other teams model at at five through eight and My
if you look at my seating that kind of back that up.
So Quince identity how the teams are performed and how I view
them as a quality of team, I think pretty well aligns.
I don't think anyone's really under or over performed.
What should be expected of them thus far today?
Maybe, maybe if you look at preseason stuff, definitely, if
you look at preseason stuff as a Michigan fan, Michigan and Ohio
State of significantly underperformed not even being in
the yeah. Miss fear of tournament
eligibility, but A couple prediction questions and you
know, it's tough to say. But for would you say that when
we get to selection Sunday, Indiana will have the second
highest seed in the Big Ten. They have a tough close to eat
you, you reference, they're tough.
They have a lot of opportunities if they significantly under
achieve with those opportunities to close the year, there's a
possibility, the Illinois Northwestern could could take.
Could you serve them in that that position but I think it's
very likely they will be the second.
Highest seated. Big Ten team do you think they
would be? Like I'm kind of viewing them.
As Is like 327, like I think I always think of, you know,
seating is very much, like, you know, hurricane.
I just live in Houston for a while, just like you have the
cone of uncertainty and like as the hurricane gets closer, kind
of widen, you know, tightens up. And I think, you know, we've
lost one and two were probably not going to drop to, you know,
eight, nine ten obviously, if we lose out, things could happen.
But I am assuming, you know, kind of we're going to, you
know, hold serve at home. Probably lose Michigan State.
Presuming, who knows what's going to happen?
But again, I look at kind of that.
Rage is like our cone of uncertainty.
Now, would you think that's a fair way to look at it?
You think it's even tighter than that?
Like, good. Would you say four to six?
Yeah, and I know exactly the concept.
I refer to it as the alligator mouth.
Yep. So the alligator mouth
tightening or it starts off wide and it tightens up.
I think that we're if you want to, if I want to put a
confidence interval, I think very very the the the tail of
tail side. Of each of that distribution,
you know like that three side, seven side think it's very
unlikely. I think you're if you're if I
can say it was probably about 95% certainty that that Indiana
should wind up between a 42-6. The one unique feature about
that that could throw a wrench in that, is that a lot of those
Big Ten teams that are behind them, are currently on that
seven line. So you have Northwestern Iowa,
Rutgers, Michigan State so in with That being said those,
those are other Big Ten teams where if you, if the committee,
put some weird emphasis on where you fell in terms of seating
teams that are on the same conference where you fall in the
conference standings, then that could shift things a little bit,
maybe leave or not a door, open for them to drop as low as a
seven. Or like you said, hey Tiff
before Escape worst, worst worst case scenario happens but I'm
95% confident they'll end up between a 46.
Yeah, I mean it's that I would agree with you.
I still think it's a world where they can hit a three, but they'd
have to probably went out and definitely win one of those
Michigan State, Purdue Road games.
It's the big Ten's going to be weird because I honestly feel
better about projecting Indiana's seed than where
they're going to finish the Big Ten because they could finish
second, they could finish like, eight, the good just based on
like there could be like, you know, the 14th tiebreak.
Figure out where they finished in the Big Ten.
I don't know there's such a muddle Mass there in the middle,
who knows? I've two more kind of conspiracy
questions to ask you that. I want to ask a bracket ologist
before we wrap up. So one, I've represent Bunch
while my better friends guile is the neighborhood on the street
with me Robert as Michigan State fan but we're both big, big
basketball college, basketball fans.
He's had this theory that I love for a while.
He's convinced that the committee already has everything
NG in place before the Big Ten championship game, like he
thinks it's such a mistake, we play it right before the
selection Sunday. I know it's great for, you know,
lead in and get some viewers, but he's I personally think they
probably have to two sets but he's like, no, it's all set like
no matter what happens in that game, they've already set the
bracket and it's all kind of fake of what happens there.
I'm curious if you think that's true or if the Big Ten is
hurting Itself by being the last game, before the bracket reveal,
I 100% subscribe. Is conspiracy theory.
I don't think it's to the point that I don't think it's a
conspiracy theory at all. I think the big time is doing a
massive disservice. I think there are a couple
other. I know my know.
There are a couple other conferences.
I can't remember who maybe the American might play on that
Sunday as well. Maybe the SEC, I don't remember
for sure, but it is a disservice to the conference and I do think
the completely are the committee's completely
dismissive of results. On Sunday.
I may Be part of it as me, being a little bit of a cynic.
And if someone wants to this is a, this is a pitch for following
me on Twitter. If someone wants to follow me
Twitter and check my very old tweets from last year.
I think I tweeted something to this very topic and and my
cynicism about this because there's something that bracket
the what how they grade Bracketology star on something
called a payment score and basically it's get six points.
If you accurately project a teams Seed, you get four points,
if you predict it within plus, or minus one line, you get three
points if you accurately, predict them in the field, but
are off by more than one seed line.
Then obviously, if there were some team that made the field
that you didn't have in, you get zero points for that.
So that's how your scored. It's called a payment score.
My payment score last year would have been, I think Four Points
higher, or maybe even six points higher if I would have just had
my Saturday bracket, be my final bracket It because I adjusted my
bracket for the result on Sunday and it didn't matter less
accurate. So that is that is the, the
epitome of that conspiracy theory and I 100% subscribe to
it. The committee completely
disregards Sunday results. And so I would like to see The
big tent, I'd like to see all Conference Championship in a
perfect scenario or set up and I think this is what the Tweet
said, maybe not verbatim, but something close to.
This is all conference tournaments to be completed on
Saturday and then give the committee that, that much longer
do actually and, and prevent the committee because the committee
starts the bracketing process earlier on and prevent the
committee from doing Any bracketing or seating or who's
in, who's out until every single game is completed.
So that kind of pushes twofold one.
You don't have scenarios where they can disregard someone
seating based on a championship game and to you don't have a
scenario where you put in a pinch because some team that
wasn't in the field wins. You don't have to create all of
these you know like five different brackets 40.
What if this person wins the team wins?
What if this team wins so I'd like to see Everything moved up
to Saturday and prevent any brand and give them 24 hours or
36 hours to complete it after, I guess it would be 24 hours after
that to complete the bracket have one and done.
I love that idea. I like that a lot.
The other thing, this is not a conspiracy it's just something
that I've noticed just kind of off hand if I had to put money
on it there's like a 2% chance Indiana's going to play in the
Albany bracket just because I feel like when you look at you,
Like Joe lunardi or guys, who put actually put out, you know,
the full bracket with like locations, it feels like
whenever we've been in the tournament and Grant we have
been in the tournament enough lately, but I remember growing
up it was always like we would just be slotted like play and
you know, wherever Pittsburgh pits and then all of a sudden,
the grant comes out. It's like, I start looking at
like flights, like I do go to Pittsburgh kinda like mentally,
think about that. And all that, like, we're always
somewhere different, like it's just like, no matter where we
and we've been slotted, and that Albany bracket, and like 90% of
the brackets I seen. And it's just kind of Totally.
It always feels like wherever it seems like we're going to go.
We never go. So we'll probably end up in
like, you know, Denver Orlando or something.
The other one too. Just, I'll go think this is
conspiracy at all. I think the committee does it.
They never say it, but it's like one of the real things that does
get put into that stew. That never gets talked about, is
I firmly believe the committee looks at all the stuff we're
talking about but then they go down and look at like, what's
the best matchups from a TV show perspective.
And put together and I think that they like I think that
affects both seed lines at times.
Like I guarantee they're going to look at like, oh Houston
Houston the one seed and you know it if Indiana is a five
like five to six, it's like what.
If we put Indiana in the same bracket as Houston, then we can
have Indiana versus K Samson like let's put that together.
Like Indiana. Kentucky a couple of years ago I
was I was astonished astonished when bob Knight was coaching at
Texas Tech and we were never In like a sub bracket with them,
like the years we were there. We were always my other side of
the bracket. I was like, this is so unlike
the instead of like maybe that was almost two hands fisted to
have like Indiana versus Texas Tech and Bob night against him
but I think it's something that we all kind of understand.
But I truly believe that it probably can affect an entire
seed line from like up or down that they do try and make
matchups where they look at like what would the sweet 16 Ali
date? Final four matchups be.
And I think they even do it early in the Tournament, you
know, can we make some fun matchups early on?
So I'm curious your thoughts again.
I think it's a theory. I think it's pretty obvious, but
I think it's one of those things that like we kind of joke, but
if I think in the end it probably does, it could affect
seeding as much as maybe any other Factor we've talked about
sure. So let me handle this one thing
at a time. First one, if you go to my
website once again, I'll shamelessly plugging away.
And yeah, 1313 one sports.com up towards the top when I have
this. See lines.
There's actually a hyperlink to a bracket that I do on a daily
basis that does have all of the sub regionals and everything.
The same way that lunardi and all of the more well-known but I
will say less accurate. If you look at those bracket
Matrix rankings again shamelessly Bracketology just do
so it does project where everyone's going to be and to
your point Scott. It had.
I have Indiana plane at Albany so you can book your flights
not. Now, don't book your flights.
This is not an ad. No, it just seems like they
never end up. They never go where they
supposed to go. But yeah, sure.
So yeah. So I do move those around and
part of what goes into that is, you know, like they get
geographical preference two teams, one through four,
obviously in in descending order.
So you're one lines are going to get the first first dibs and get
priority than by time. You get to the floor, you know,
like you might have run out of sometimes it even happens at 3
you might run out of of a, you know, like a sub Regional pod
that doesn't have a geographic proximity that a team would like
so they have to be shipped off somewhere else.
So honestly from a weird, Geographic perspective and might
actually be better if for any and a fans if they want to
travel to be on the 5 line. Because once they get down to
four, just based on the teams that are ahead of them, you
know, like produced going to go to is going to take up one of
the Columbus pods and if they're on the for line, Indiana can't
In that you're like, they won, that can't be in the same
Regional as for do because of, they have to deviate the based
on the bracketing rules. But to if Columbus is already
taken as a sub Regional that they're not going to have the
opportunity to go there and so like Columbus or Des Moines
those, you know, like the and all but albany's, probably those
based on the teams that are ahead of them albany's going to
be the best bet for something that's closest.
Where you might get a team like a Marquette Park.
Connecticut, or one of those big east teams taking Albany as a
four seat or a, excuse me, as a for seeing, then they go there
as a five as opposed to if they get up to the for line and
there's somebody else that has Albany already taken, and all of
the closer regionals already taken, that's where you end up
getting shipped to, I, don't know, Sacramento or Birmingham
or one of the less less clothes. Jinnah locations.
So to that extent, I that, that might be something weird.
Nuance that Indiana fans might want to cheer for the, the, the
counter that of The Devil's Advocate to that is just the
everybody and their brother knows about the classic 512
matchup in to the extent that that wants to be avoided.
You'd rather much rather play the next tier 3 conference
champion and not end up playing somebody like a Charles Danner
Southern Miss or Liberty, or one of those teams that or heaven
forbid. Play Oral Roberts that as Mac
sadness, and he's just a stud having that Stuttgart where they
can go off. And yep, go on a run, but going
on a given bit of a tangent but it certainly, I think it's
probable that Indiana ends up and not based on where I, how I
have Team seated right now. Excuse me, they should avoid
Sacramento and Denver, but they might.
I mean like the ship location would be more likely Orlando or
Birmingham. So to the extent that you want
to go to Orlando in March, which is a great time that that's
that's I don't think people are going to complain about that
regarding the matchup. So that's that's not even a
conspiracy theory either. That's 100% accurate or I'm very
confident that that happens. I don't think it happens.
I would say it's a little bit less from a from the summer
summer olympics. That you suggested that might be
willing to perform in order to align those teams.
I don't think it's quite like shifting entire seed line.
I don't know that it's quite to that.
I believe it's quite to that extent, maybe.
But I certainly think it's that they, when they have these teams
seated, they're like, all right, you know?
Like here's a couple teams that Aren't going to be you know like
great TV ratings let's put them in the same sub-regional pod.
Oh, we have North Carolina as a tendon.
And I mean it can't be Duke because Dukes in the same
conference, but some other big draw, you know, like say
Michigan. State was a seven, you know?
Like if they could have North Carolina, Michigan State,
there's like, oh, well, there's some animosity between those
teams because North Carolina, like, last time Michigan State
played in the, I think it's the last time.
Michigan State played in Championship, North Carolina,
random off the court. I mean, that was whatever was I
think that was when I was in school.
But you know like there's those opportunities to have those kind
of matchups. Certainly when it, you know,
like setting them up in the first round or in that than the
same sub-regional pod. I think that happens if there's
an opportunity, I will say, you said moving seed lines.
If it's borderline, I think maybe they do it, you know.
Like if this team say, in my example, they had Michigan.
State as the best eight seed and they wanted them to Point North
Carolina. Sure.
Maybe they shimmy them up to the worst 7 seed to facilitate that,
but I don't think they make massive movements to that, but I
certainly think they do it for TV ratings.
Yep. Well, hey, I really appreciate
all the time. This has been awesome.
Joe, thank you so much for joining and we'd love to have
you back on before, we get to maybe like right around the Big
Ten Tournament time. Maybe, hopefully, hopefully
Indiana's got one of those double buys and Go from there.
But yeah, you know, check them out, 131 Sports, you've been,
you know, right now you're the six rank Matrix on the bracket
Matrix and there's you know, 200 140 there.
So you're high in that man you're getting a 1 or a 2 seed
in the bracket Matrix and I love I'm not, I don't want to put
words in your mouth, but I do love what I talked to like, you
know, Andy bottoms as part of our network does really good
Bracketology Galen like it does good.
Bracketology like everyone who really gets into this stuff.
Is always kind of like, yeah, well, Already Is Not Great, like
everyone goes one already. Ever looks a little ready but
it's like his hit rate is not up there with the people who really
know what they're doing, which is, which is funny.
But in a way he's kind of doing something different.
But like he's selling something. He's USA Today versus like
actual like real news reporting. I would say yeah yeah it's a
little bit apples to oranges. But it certainly I think the the
bracket ologist that I've been that put time and effort into
this and have been perennially pretty accurate.
Whenever someone on Twitter, There's a look at where lunardi
has them. They we all collectively shudder
just a little bit you know like maybe you could check someone a
little bit more accurate, I get what he's solid and Jerry Palms,
kind of the same way. I think he's great at even
lower, but if you look at the bracket Matrix when they
whenever there's an update, they always put the the person who
runs the bracket Matrix always put CBS and and ESPN they get
front row billing. And I was like, and it just, you
know, I'm like, I want that spot.
So it's something that motivates me to be more accurate.
And like you said, if I'm a 1 or 2 seed, right now, my goal is to
move into that that top for to get up from one seed by the end
of this year. Yep, last question because this
is actually as I've dug more into this like I just found the
bracket Matrix like two years ago like I'm digging more into
this. What are the best resources that
you know what, best two or three resources that you use?
That other people can kind of hop on to do this?
I don't know, it can Palm torvik.
Lot of Sites out there. But is there anything else that
you, you use to get some of the information that other people
can kind of dig into? Yeah, I mean, can like you said,
torvik and Ken pom, another one of those advanced.
IT excites, the absolute want to plug is Evan Maya.
Evaan miy, a is a good follow on Twitter as well and his stuff
and his eye. He's his graphical and visual
Presentation of his sight is very fluid and very smooth, very
crisp and clean. So, I want to plug his sight to.
Yeah, I just, I just found him this season and I, because I
found him something on Twitter. He was doing like the top five
lineups. And he's got some great, really
interesting stuff of like the top five lineups, the country
the top five lineups per team. The top for man, three-minute
like some really interesting lineup stuff showing you no
offense of Defense efficiency based on line up.
So yeah, it's a great call. I just got into that this year.
Yeah. And then for someone that is you
know like that does you know like not to I don't mean this in
any sort of disparaging way but Ken Palm the lot of the advanced
stuff is behind a pay wall and everything that I've wanted to
get from Maya at least for now is is rather lie available for
free. So that's that's just another.
Someone wants the surface level access and and some in-depth
stuff for free than that's a great.
Great place to start that. I mean, the ncaa's obviously
from a Bracketology perspective, the ncaa's net rankings.
Warren Nolan is another one that has some of that stuff and just
looking at depending on your approach to Bracketology.
If you want to say, if you want to stick to the cuz torvik, does
this? Both ways if you want to stick
to the here? And now if the tournament
started today, where would a team be seated?
And then torvik also has a wear with a team.
Be seated if how we predict the rest of their season goes
actually comes to fruition. So there's different approaches,
I think most Ecologist kind of take the, and I certainly do
take the Here and Now approach, but you can kind of also look
at, oh, you know, like, where might we end up on selection
Sunday, if the, it plays out, how we expected to play out, if
we win the games, were supposed to and lose the games, were
expected to. So those are, those are kind of
the ones that I will look at. And then other than that, it's
the standard resources, you know, looking at a team schedule
on ESPN, or something is what else I use.
And then to the extent that it's possible with The one in 31
year-old three-year-old at home, the eye test but that's that's a
little bit harder these days, you know, like catch a few
minutes here and there. But that's that I have to become
a little bit more reliant. On those those those shortcuts
that I disparage the committee for being relying on these days.
But I still like to think that I do enough research that that
that I can make a reasonable guess and it's Out so far.
So, right, thank you for coming on Joe again, it's 131 Sports
131, sports.com and 131 Sports at sorry at 131 Sports on
Twitter. Check them out, gray stuff in
the, we'll look forward to having you on right around the
Big Ten Tournament time and hopefully that alligator mouth
is closed and Indiana, at least being a protected, seen the for
line. So thank you guys all for
listening, appreciate it until next time.
This is Scott for Crimson cast signing off.