You're listening to the back home network presented by home
field apparel. Welcome as Crimson Cask ale and
Claudio Scott Caulfield back with you.
Once again, here it is. March.
Happy March Scott the This used to be the Most Wonderful Time of
the Year, man, what happened to us?
But no, the weather is nice outside.
You've got tournament play going on.
The women are in the Big Ten Tournament right now.
They actually knocked off Rutgers yesterday and they've
got a date with Maryland. Again.
It's very important today. So there's good basketball being
played. Just not by the men's team right
now. And so we're going to talk about
that will talk about the big loss to Rutgers this past
Wednesday. And we will also discuss the
overall situation with the men's basketball team and kind of
figure out where things go from here before we get started, like
to mention that home field apparel is a presenting.
Sponsor of crimson cast, as well as the whole back home network.
You can then adjust have had a friends-and-family sale here
recently. They've always got these little
sales that are popping up and they continue to add great
merchandise to the overall collection.
They've been doing some really nice basketball.
Hands here lately. They had to pull a few weeks
ago. They had Kansas this week.
And that's going to be a lot of fun.
Kansas Scott. I feel like is one of those
basketball brands that you can be an IU fan and root for Kansas
and not feel like you're doing anything wrong.
Like, if you're rooting for Kentucky.
It's like, what on Earth is wrong with you?
If you're rooting for North Carolina or Duke.
It's like, wow, you're a sellout, we do.
But Kansas is like every year they have a legitimate chance at
winning a national title and you don't feel that.
Thought that far off from the Indiana brand overall.
They're like, you know, the Adidas partner that doesn't
mind, you know, the cheating and so forth.
So I guess we can just kind of salute them and buy shirts from
home field, apparel featuring The Kansas Jayhawks, but many
other options out there and you can use the code home, Home2,
get a discount on your first purchase.
So again, check out home field apparel.com and you'll find many
things there that you will enjoy.
So go and check them out. If you haven't already Scott,
hi, how you doing? Yeah, then we play Kansas next
year. So it's kind of messed up to is
like, now, we can't really be a Kansas fan next year.
It's too bad. Yes.
I know the, you know, actually playing teams makes it harder.
Yes. Yeah, playing good teams.
Is it as a novelty? I'm good, man.
It's that this is very, very select.
Few. Like one of my very good
friends, Teddy out in l.a. Who listens to the pot of a
group with a friend named Rose. We went to Kings Island his kids
or high school kids. I remember we did, they grow.
Beast and she had never been on a roller coaster.
We hit the first downhill, we go down and then we like hit the
clink and starts going up again. And she's like, we gotta do it
again. Like, it's been here for years,
but it's like, that's how I feel with this pod is like, we gotta
do it again, have to do this again.
I will prefer those listening in the car with young kids.
I'm getting very close to like getting rid of the Scott doesn't
curse moratorium. So just be be prepared.
Have the mute button, ready to rock and roll.
I feel like cursing is somewhat needed after a game like this.
I love how I love Allah. Oh, this is somehow a burden on
you. And yet, I'm the one.
I'm the one that has to go in and put all the Beeps in.
I'm the one that has to produce the podcast.
So your big burden is, oh my brain feels better because I
used a bad word. Whereas it's like, oh great.
Let's create 30 more minutes of work for Galen while he produces
this thing. So I please unburden yourself,
sir. As it should be.
Thank you. I appreciate it.
Here's my question for you. We'll talk about the game.
I just I got to know because for me, it was laughing.
My answer was I just had to laugh.
You were, you were sitting at happened.
Kind of right in front of you? What were your thoughts, and
feelings as Ron Harper jr. Dropped his nuts on the
assembly. Hall floor.
I mean, did you buy? Did you see the Run Harper jr.
Like licensed sweatshirt with him doing that?
They're just serious and go right.
Go right now, too. Twitter go to run our for
juniors, Twitter and you you're gonna if you go to run, Harbor
Juniors, Twitter, he's actually already like this was yesterday.
He's got a who's your daddy hoodie?
And a t-shirt collection. That's available that he's
selling, which commemorates him carrying his package along the
assembly hall floor after hitting that three and I I
haven't ordered one yet. I'm considering it.
It seems like a great holiday gift that you might be able to
give to somebody. Yeah, it's it was I say this,
I'm looking at it now guys why it's wild, isn't it?
That is not a sponsor for the podcast.
Got to say, we're not, we're not fans of this.
I will say, it's interesting, like I this is the kind of n IL
I respect because not only does he have a, who's your daddy
package delivery, but I guess we'll call it that.
That t-shirt, but on the same merch page, he's got a down,
goes number 1 shirt of him beating, Purdue with that last
second shot. This is, well done this whole
thing. I'm actually I'm pretty
impressed with how this has been set up.
So, anyway, my thoughts it's funny.
I earlier on, I think probably at that seven minute, Mark when
Indiana was going through there now, traditional offensive death
spiral in the second half. I said to myself.
I'm really concerned about the prospects of being up by two at
the end of the game with Ron Harper, jr.
And Geo Baker on the other team. And so when Stewart hits the
three, finally and Indiana ties it up and Rutgers inbounds it
and it goes to write to Ron Harper, jr.
And they've got one guy defending Ron Harper jr.
I'm like, he's gonna hit the shot because that wasn't even a
question. It was just like, how much time
will be left after he hits this shot, and Sure enough.
It it went that way. It was very predictable.
And it was I have to say, you never like to see players like
celebrating in in that manner, in your home gym, but he
deserved it. He that he hit the shot and
there's not a whole lot. You can do about it at this
point. Yeah.
I mean, you know, he hit the shot.
He won the game. He took down, I you he took down
Purdue. He owns the state of Indiana,
but I will say watching him the second half.
Laughs. I would whisper I brought my
buddy and neighbor Robert down to the game.
We're so they're talking. It's like I've not seen a high
level player kind of meander that much during a game.
Like, Ron Harper jr. Looked at times disinterested
looked like he wasn't running because he wasn't, and I was
saying, like, I don't know why, like, they were running his own.
I was kind of joking. I wonder if they're running his
own just because Ron Harper Geno's want to run and play
man-to-man defense, but it's like go at him like move the
ball to that side of the zone and just pound the ball against.
Like double team him make him move on offense.
Like he was, he was his offense, is kind of like, I'm just going
to stand here and wait for an open three.
And I'm going to crush every open three.
But it was a bizarre game to watch, but it's something it's
on, I you to take advantage of that and they did none of that.
It is also, you know, we've had discussions back and forth like
it is just, I'm kind of scattershot stuff.
It's like there is so much out. Alpha and Xavier Johnson, which
is great, but it like it just shines out to a point where it's
like, this guy is such an outlier on this team.
In a positive way that he just does so much.
You know, my moment where I'm like, the season's over was
where I was. I just saw Xavier push Milady.
Okay. The into the, into the bench.
I didn't see the punch afterwards.
I was just like, that's the end of the season, but I'm thinking
like that only happens because I, again, I'm not on the team.
Obviously, you're big big surprise here, but it's like
you're just watching. It's like Xavier.
You wonder if he's feels like, I'm the only guy doing anything
like, I've got to make something.
He's the only one who felt like, who you can see acting like,
this is the end of our season that we've got to do something
and it's like, all right. I'm just gonna put like, I'm
just going for the ball doing whatever.
I mean to me. Xavier cemented a spot in my
kind of IU fan. I was like that guy's just
busting his ass hard at the entire game, but it is.
It's wild seeing it against some of the other players where I
know they're trying another busting hard, but it just
doesn't it. Is show the same way.
But on defense mean, Xavier is just all over the place.
It is anyway, that that play to was also a kind of a wild end of
the game. Yeah.
It was one of those things where that whole last minute was just
crazy and it was one of those games where I you had the
opportunity to kind of salted away at the end of the first
half beginning of the second half and of course, they didn't.
And you just felt like the trajectory of the game was going
to be kind of like the Purdue game where it's like, Anna's got
this lead. They let it get away.
And then they're either going to have to make a play or a couple
of plays down the stretch or they're going to end up losing.
Well, you know the Purdue game. We kind of got the first half of
that equation and unfortunately in this Rutgers game we get the
second half of the equation but it was it was a very odd game in
a lot of ways in that it was a game where Rutgers look like.
They were going to really have trouble maintaining any
semblance of a normal offensive structure and then all of a
sudden and they started hitting shots because Indiana was doing
a poor job of guarding them. There were a lot of confusing
decisions made as far as leaving Ron Harper jr.
On switches and what you ended up with was a game where you got
dominated essentially by, I would say, two guys Harper jr.
With 19 points, and he shot 548 from three, but also all marui
with 12, rebounds and 13 points. And and there I you just didn't
have an answer. In the paint that was trying as
hard. And I think what your point is
well-taken, like you looked at Xavier Johnson and Johnson did
not have a great offensive game, you know, he but he was at least
trying to do some things and this was the fourth straight
game. Where he scored in double
figures. It was, you know, it was not a
great game from a turnover perspective.
But a lot of that was his teammates not doing a lot to
help him out in a lot of stretches.
And It just to me, I guess, across the board outside of
Xavier Johnson. You looked at the contributions
that I you made for the totality of the game.
And it's really hard to point to anybody and say, wow, that
players effort and energy level really stood out, you know,
offensively Parker Stewart and Miller cop essentially no.
Showed again. I do think Parker Stewart
deserves some credit. He had a couple of decent
defensive possessions, and obviously, even though he missed
a few leading up to You did hit the shot that tied the game that
kind of got lost in the shuffle there, but he does deserve
credit for continuing to put shots up, Miller.
Cop just was essentially a no-show offensively for most of
the game and then, you know, it was confusing because race
Thompson was kind of his steady overall, self wasn't exemplary,
but certainly, you know, yes, he made some mistakes on defense,
but he had the toughest defensive assignment.
And then Trace Jackson, Davis had an awesome first half and
you're like, hey, this is great. You're seeing traced.
Jackson Davis, like come out of this funk that he's been in and
then he just essentially didn't show up in second half again.
I mean, it would like was was getting double-teamed, you know,
certainly Rutgers was making it difficult, but a, there was no
adaptation by race or by Trace Jackson, Davis to try to get out
of where he was at, and do something different.
And there was no adaptation by Mike Woodson to try to do
something different, because they obviously made a concerted
effort to take J Stax and Davis away.
And so it's, I would love to know how many touches he had in
the Can have yeah, like, I don't know, but we're talking about
that. The game is like, I don't know.
He scored like, what? Two points.
I think it was for, but but, you know, the two of those were free
throws. Yeah, it's it was, it was one of
those games and we've seen a lot of these very left and 10
touches, probably. I mean, I, it may be more or
less than that, but it was another one of the games that
we've seen out of Trace Jackson Davis down, the stretch.
We're opposing defenses, are just like, look, you're not
going to beat us with the relatively Limited.
Limited arsenal of moves that you've got, you know, you if we
are not able to take it away in the first half and that's our
primary thing to worry about will just focus on taking it
away in the second half and dare somebody else to beat us and I
you just hasn't been able to because even, you know, Xavier
Johnson, like ultimately, he either is able to spot up and
shoot from three or he finds lanes and drives to the basket.
Well, teams, I think have found that In many cases, they're able
when they're doubling the post on Trace Jackson.
Davis to just as easily. Take away.
The driving lanes that Xavier Johnson has been utilizing and
then it's like now, what. So it was it was a real good
summation of most of the offensive issues that this
Indiana team has had over the course of the Season or at least
over the course of the second half of the season.
And unfortunately for Indiana, it happened in a game that they
just could not afford to have this type of a performance in.
Hey, look, I mean, one of the things in this game that I think
is interesting. Indiana's played pretty well.
Overall this season against slow tempo teams.
And then these games were, there hasn't been a huge amount of
possessions. Indiana's.
Defense is generally been able to make the deal the difference.
In this one. They allowed over a point per
possession to Rutgers and there just weren't that many
possessions in this game overall.
And that's that's I think that was probably the biggest problem
like this game plan. Probably should have resulted in
a narrow victory for Indiana. All Things Considered.
But in this case, you had Ron Harper jr.
On the other team who not only wasn't afraid to take those
shots at the end. But knew that he could make
them. And I think everybody had an
idea that he could make them. And so the whole plan of just
like well, it's grind, this out ends up, not working because you
come up against an opponent who's shown several times this
season now that they're able to win those types of games?
Where his Indiana isn't always able to Yeah, I mean and
sometimes you know, the simplest answer just is the answer where
I mean you go six from 21 43. It's just like, that's just not
good enough. You just can't do it.
And a lot of those were wide open looks.
I mean, I was thinking this in the Minnesota game that, you
know, we had Minnesota dead to rights and they came back and I
was thinking that whatever were down 10 on the road.
It feels weird on 10. It's like, it feels like it's
just over. Why can't we come back and say?
Oh, yeah, because Minnesota to started hitting Three and we
just we don't do that. Like the games that we do that
were rough. Rob, fantasy went nuts hitting
threes. We we almost we beat Purdue like
the game were Parker Stewart went like, you know, 648 from
three. We, you know, damn near beat
Syracuse in a, you know, a hundred and ten point double
overtime game, you know, why did Rutgers come kind of storming
back in the second half because they were hitting threes.
It really is tough at its. I mean, I hate the, you know,
you gotta hit open threes, but you just got to Well, like it
was the first Parker Stewart Miss.
I like, you know, we're talking about it.
Like Woodson was going to take some crap.
It's like, he ran a great play. Like, Parker Stewart, had a wide
open three, top of the key, and he Mission at some point, a lot
of those threes were wide open. They were good place to get
threes. And we just, we've got to be
able to shoot better. We've got to be able to make
threes. And it, this is why this team is
flawed and is always going to have this problem.
This year is I mean teams that just start hitting threes.
We can't compete. We just can't and like teams can
come back. Teams, construct leads.
We don't have that ability to come back and or stretch leads
because outside of two or three games this year.
We're just not a consistent. Three-point shooting team.
Yeah. No, it's I think the biggest
problem you got two people in the starting lineup, who just,
they're there to hit shots. You mean Stewart and copper
there to hit shots and they're just not hitting shots.
And then it's not I'm not even looking at it as a criticism.
It's just a reality. Like this group of players has
not shown an ability to hit the shots that they're supposed to
hit. And unfortunately for Indiana,
there's really nobody else on the bench who can come in and do
those things without taking a big chunk of Defense off the
table. And so you end up with People
say well, why are like, this was a game where?
Yes, you probably should have had Geronimo in the game.
You probably should have had Tomorrow Bates in the game, but
they've been worse offensively than cop and Stewart have been
and so it's not even a matter of well Woodson should have sat
those two guys down because yes in a vacuum, he should have but
you're not bringing in anybody that's going that shown the
ability to do any better over all over.
The the course of the season. And at least the course of this
last couple of weeks worth of games.
And you know, what's interesting, is when you talk
about three, pointers in particular, since the Penn State
game Indiana in all of their games.
They hit six. 3s. 3, 3, 4, 3 is 5. 3 is 5 3, 6. 3 is 5 3 is 10
threes against Minnesota and then back to 6 against Rutgers
and when you look at what their opponents have done in, Many of
those games they just as you said, been outscored from the
ark and it's just what you know, this was a relatively consistent
thing that I you was able to rely on in several games.
They've certainly Fallen apart in a lot of their their losses
or the close games that they've had from three.
And what I guess is really problematic is In the starting
lineup right now, the way it has to be a situation where you've
got outside shooting opening up the lane.
It's really the only way that this particular approach works
and when that's not happening, it just makes it so much easier
on the opponent's and Indiana. Just has no second options.
In terms of trying to generate offense, that, you know, they
don't get to the Lane particularly well and they don't
use athleticism to put themselves in positions where
they're getting a Tremendous number of foul shots or, you
know, being a or able to convert a tremendous number of foul
shots. So I do worry about, I guess the
overall prognosis for the remainder of the season because
what we're seeing out of this Indiana team right now is
essentially what they've been doing for the last month and a
half. I think the Hope was that the
games against Maryland Minnesota had awoken them and gotten them
out of this slump that they'd been in but Essentially.
No, I think what the Rutgers game showed us was that this is
a team that is essentially kneecapped offensively.
I don't know. I don't think there's a way to
fix it because they're not going to play anything, but good teams
from this point forward and good teams have shown, they can shut
Indiana's offense down and at that point, the biggest
Advantage Indiana's had, which has been their defense becomes
much less of an advantage, because they simply can't keep
up with the scoring of the opposition.
Yeah, I mean if you go basically this calendar year Mike, I was
going to take it from the Purdue game, you know, from the Purdue
win. We've only beaten three teams,
Maryland, Minnesota Penn State, all who are sub 80 and Ken pom.
So you look at that. It's like, alright, this team
hasn't shown ability to beat anybody.
It has to beat moving forward. Yeah, you know, just hasn't done
it, since January 20th. If you go to the beginning of
the year, you know, it's week, two teams, Ohio, State and
Purdue. But then you only add one more
team, we can be eaten as Nebraska.
You know, it's it is Bleak. But yeah, it's you know, you
look at that, Maryland. Minnesota as like art, maybe
they've woken up. Sadly could also be maybe.
Maryland Minnesota has aren't that good and maybe we're just
we're just the tenth best team in the Big Ten and there they
12th in the 14th. Best team in the Big Ten and
were able to beat teams at that level.
Yeah, man. It's you know, I don't know if
we want to go. I have a negative route and a
positive, right? We can go one or the other so
you I kind of want to end on the positive.
Okay, I don't want to dwell on the negative.
But I mean this is can I go bigger picture or like want to
like get you you do what you want to go?
You're fine. Take us where you want to go.
It's fine. I mean, this is this is the
thing that I really want to hit is just at a bigger picture and
this is the problem that really frustrated me in the Archie are
and I probably never adequately set it correctly.
I'm probably not going to Adequately, like push it out to
now. But I wrote this down as an
Indiana basketball fan, where I think Indiana is where we offer,
you know, we offer as a program, the resources we put into it and
the fact that our athletic department, we sell ourselves as
a historically, great. And, you know, good program and
we are a basketball school. This is what I think a four-year
run as a new coach to look like the first year.
You should make the NCAA tournament.
The second year. You should be top five, Big Ten
somewhere in that. Range and be in the NCAA
tournament at a higher seat. The third year.
You should be in the top three in the Big Ten and pushing for
that second weekend of the NCAA tournament.
And by year for your at, you know, you're at peak level you
are competing for Big Ten titles and you're going to the final
four. Now, it's funny.
I'm talking to my friend Robert and the way down and he's, he's
like your well, but yeah, it's not always linear.
It's like, yeah, like pet Michigan.
State could get bounced once as a 2 seed, but then like they
come back in like, two years later.
They're back up to that level. Like they're not myth like
they're not having these ups and downs and like by the way, you
can have bad Seasons here or there if you had that nice run,
but that's kind of a four-year window.
For me that what I'm very concerned about is what happened
under Archie is by year for that tea was not prepared to compete
for a Big Ten title or a final four, but it's like, we were
just as a fan basic. All we got to do is make the
tournament to me. It's like, if you miss your
year, one expectations year to expectations, don't change.
You know, she don't get a five year plan or Six year plan or a
seven-year plan. Now year, one and two.
The expectations are kind of the same.
So, next year. I'm again, expecting top five,
Big Ten may or may not happen, but I'm still expecting NCAA
tournament year. 3 is where it gets tough, where I expect a top
three and you're pushing for the second weekend, and I'm worried
that we're just going to push all of our expectations as a fan
base back, one more year and I'm, you know, this is where I
need you to kind of help me find better corollaries, but you look
at like, Brad Underwood it, Illinois who took over?
I don't think was a Better or Worse program?
I'm not sure they have more or less resources that us.
I think they have less. I would have historically, have
less to kind of pull from, you know, his first two years were a
little bit rougher than you want.
But by year three, he was there by your for their fourth seat,
4th ranked team in the country. It can be happening for years.
So that is from a negative point where I'm very concerned that I
don't want to see that slide of expectations where by year three
or four, it's like, yes, in reality.
This team has Archie's fourth year that team had no chance of
making the Final Four. But to me, it's like that's not
my problem. Like that is a your problem,
kind of situation. And those are the Expectations
by year for for Coach. So I just I'm just laying that
out there. Now that my expectations are
going to step up year over year, even if you know, we look like
we're going to be losing 80 percent of our starting five.
So that's I don't know. I want to get that out there.
Okay. I mean look, I guess I take a
slightly different approach on this in that.
The way that the program is set up is very much dependent on
what the coach is able to do in terms of selling a vision and
what the players that that coach brings in are able to accomplish
within the confines of that vision.
And I think that, you know, the, when you look at IU, basketball
over the course of this last 13, 14, 15 years.
There's been a lot of support given to coaches while they're
here. And the coaches have essentially
kind of backed themselves into Corners Koreans Corner, that he
backed himself into was just really sloppy recruiting
practices. As he got further into his
tenure. He's kept pulling players in
that just did not have the capacity to be complete
ballplayers. He, you know, players that were
at a certain caliber of above and it up going elsewhere.
He was hard to play for for, for several players.
That ended up leading to issues as well Miller, you know, for
whatever reason was incapable of bringing in players that were
able to rise to an occasion from a personality perspective.
And you know, the I think what you're seeing on this roster
right now is still largely that now.
Yes, you've got some new players that have come in some of the
transfers that Woodson brought in and I don't know that they've
necessarily worked out either in.
Cases like Xavier Johnson. I think they have but in other
cases they haven't now, what does all that mean?
In terms of long-term prognosis for the program.
I mean, the big issue for Indiana right now is that, you
know, despite what look like a good foundation and despite
certainly a lot of increases on the defensive side of the ball,
which I think would some deserves credit for there.
Really hasn't been much that look as looked different in
terms of the output for this IU basketball team.
It's hard for me to sit here and just point the finger entirely
Woodson, because you are dealing with a roster of players that is
largely left over from the previous coaching staff, not
completely. But, but largely, and you've got
pieces that plugged into that and guess what?
They've largely taken on the culture that was already there.
It's more to me. It's less a matter of like
output as it is. What's the culture of the
program, that's being constructed and does it actually
relate to. High level or at least mid-level
success. Both of which are things.
Indiana hasn't really enjoyed over the course of the last
seven, eight, nine years, and I don't know.
I mean I was I was positive about it overall.
About two months ago. I was like, wow, looks like
Woodson's really gotten this team to buy into this idea that
they can win these games that they can perform at high levels.
And now I'm not sure that that actually was the case.
Now, you know, it's like, okay, was that just an Afterglow
effect of having, you know, gotten some confidence having
beaten a lot of lesser teams in the non-conference portion of
the season. Because if, you know, you can
look at the season from the standpoint of how have they
performed in games where it mattered and outside of the
Ohio, State and Purdue. You games at home and I guess
maybe the Notre Dame game. There's not a lot of games where
you can point to and say. Wow in that game where they were
taking on this team that was good or in this situation.
That was tough. They succeeded, you know, Ken
pom has this thing. If you pay for a subscription
where they will rate games based upon how difficult the the
opponent and location combination were so that gives a
tier 10 games and there's beats here games.
Indiana's played in what's see, 567 898 here games on the
season. They've only won two of them.
One of them was the Purdue game at home.
And the other one was the game at Maryland, which I wouldn't
exactly point to and say. Wow.
What a huge accomplishment. You want it Marilyn, you know,
the of the beads here games, which aren't quite as good.
They've played one, two, three, four, five, six of those, and
they've won half of them, but the three games that they've won
were the Notre Dame game on the road.
At game Bridge, the Ohio State game at home.
And then the Minnesota game on the road, and everything else
has been a game that hasn't lived up to that caliber.
Like they have largely beaten, the team's you would expect him
to be, they have largely lost to the team's.
You would expect them to lose to, and when you look at the
overall resume of the Season, there's just not a whole lot to
get excited about. And, and I, it's hard to say
whether that is something that is going to change or not.
I don't think we have enough evidence yet on the wood.
Something I do think we've got some evidence that Woodson is
still very much adapting to the concept of the college game in
terms of, you know, who to leave out on the floor, you know, how
to call offense woods and seems like a guy who has coached at
the NBA for a long time where it's like, well, you're a
professional you figure it out. This is definitely not a team of
professionals that that is on this roster for IU.
It's a team of college students as one would expect because it's
college basketball, but Will he have, will he be able to bring
in the players that can play the way that he wants to play and
develop them enough? So that he can let things go on
the floor? The way that he seems to want to
down the stretch and games? And I don't know the answer to
that. I'm not terribly optimistic.
But I do know that it doesn't seem to be working with this
particular group. And I feel like at this point,
hate to say it, but it's probably too late this season to
expect anything different from what we've already seen.
Like, there's more than enough evidence at this point.
That would point to this just being unfortunately.
Another kind of lost cause season.
Yeah, you have a tweet. You've used a couple times like
this is why we have trust issues, which is great in those
in those in those losses, you know, Martha mop lady, patio, at
mop lady on Twitter, posted this out, which is just mind-boggling
but the peak wind probability. And again, this is a Ken pom.
It's that everywhere. But Ken Pon has it in a good
spot, you know, pequin probability in our 11 losses.
I'm going to run through this Syracuse.
We had a peak win probability of 72%, Wisconsin, 97% Penn State
74% Iowa, 75%. Those are all second half the
Michigan. And Michigan, Illinois, don't
count because those are first half, don't care.
Northwestern 75%, second half, Michigan, State doesn't matter.
We lost mean that was not there. But then Wisconsin, 84, Ohio,
State, 81, Rutgers 90. Those are all second half peak
wind probabilities. Well over 70. 75 percent in all
of those. It's mind-boggling that of that.
You have, you know, eight losses.
I'm Three off the table because they were first half.
And like you can't say, we really ever had a win
probability against Michigan at home, but that's, that's a real
problem, like it again to your point.
Like that's where even if we play in the Big Ten tournament,
we get to Purdue. I mean, I'll ask this fan,
question to neiu Fan, listening to this.
We come out against Purdue, and we play great and we have a
eight point lead going into halftime.
Is there anybody? Who's like, I'm, we're winning
this game. Like, I have faith that IU is
going to close this out. We go to the Big Ten tournament.
We get a fifteen. On Michigan in the second half.
We're closing this out a book in my second round.
Big Ten tournament tickets, like knowing this is where the trust
issue comes in and it's it's not just a coincidence.
Like this is a pattern like this is what, like, this is not a
bug. It's a feature.
This team just cannot close out hand on getting.
I think it goes back to the three-point shooting.
All all things were talking about, but it's, it's it makes
for not a fun basketball viewing experience because you're just
waiting for your heart to be ripped out and even the times.
It's not, it's the Minnesota games where you're like, damn, a
10 point win. Would have been a lot more fun
than what I just went through. Yeah.
Now it's, it's really confusing. It's one of those things where
they should know better at this point.
They should be able to carry on and capitalize on good first
half's. But this is where I think the
get out. The coaching difference was very
obvious in this Rutgers game, Steve pikul, I think is an
excellent coach. I think I Said this last year,
like if you lined up the game coaches, the guys who actually
do the in-game coaching. He's probably top three in the
conference. I'm actually surprised he's
still at Rutgers and that a larger School hasn't snapped him
up already because I really respect with that guys, able to
do and they do keep in mind. This is a Rutgers team.
That was really bad to start the year.
Lost. A lot of games that they
shouldn't. This is not a team that should
have gotten better. It's also a team that barely has
a bench like, go look at the minute distributions that
they've had. I mean, it was I think all their
starters except one played 35, or more minutes in the game or
something like that. Like it was you know that when
you look at IU and it's like, well depth probably shouldn't
have been that big of a deal here because I use starters
should have been able to match Rutgers starters and yet they
just weren't over the course of the second half because Rutgers
made adjustments, they made defensive adjustments.
They figured out ways to get their Guys open and you just
don't see either of those things on a consistent basis in game.
Changing sorts of ways that Indiana needs to succeed.
So, look, we've talked about this, a lot throughout the
course of the year. And what's disappointing is that
when the problem started to crop up and really, it was that
Michigan game. I think that at home, where they
really started to crop up, it just is like, nothing's really
changed, except Indiana getting worse in key situations in most
of these games. Since then, that, you know,
that's, that's the most disappointing thing to me and I
think all the Hope that we had at the beginning of the year.
The beginning of the Big Ten season was this team.
Looks like it's getting steadily better.
It looks like it's you know, you know by the middle of January.
This was a solid single digit team in the NCAA projections and
it is not now it is a team that is probably going to miss the
NCAA tournament which are going to talk about here in a second.
And as you know, to your point, you just can't feel confident
about anything that this team does positive because you feel
like the of is right around the corner.
It's why people got so upset about that.
Minnesota game, you know, for all the people that said, well,
hey, we should just be happy that it was a road win and this
and that. And it's like you're missing the
point here. That's not a good Minnesota team
and it just demonstrated Indiana's inability to embrace
success, to put themselves in a position where, hey, we've done
something good. Now, let's build off of it as
opposed to. Hey, we've done something good.
We can stop playing. Now, or we can stop adjusting
what we're doing to what the opponent is doing.
And that is probably the biggest thing culture-wise that has to
change long term. Because this is what we saw in
the Archie Miller era, you know, this has been a carbon copy of
what we've seen out of Archie's teams.
It's part of the DNA of this program.
Now, it's just like you, you are going to find a way.
Even if you accomplish something in the first half of games for
your opponent, to take that away from you, and that is Is
definitely something that's disappointing.
Anyway, let's go ahead and talk mention.
Sorry, but the only thing that changes, the only thing that has
changed since that Michigan game is when the opponents are Penn
State, Maryland or or Minnesota. That's when we can get with me.
It is really, it becomes a team where if I was looking at this
just, you know, we were just talking about teams to make the
tournament and your team's the Big Ten.
If I didn't ever watch them. As looked at me like, oh, yeah,
like they can, they can beat bad teams.
They can't beat anybody better than that.
Like, that's that's what the Looks like since January well,
carry some water for you because I know we want to talk about
March. So, you know, let's talk about
also talking about March means we got to talk about our friend
Ed fang over at the power rank. It's coming up now that he's
gonna be publishing, his new bracket wisdom.
You want to win your March Madness, pool Gala, and I do
one. I don't know who normally wins
seeing me and Galen, but I normally don't win.
I'm terrible at actually picking hooty-hoo win.
So I'm looking forward to the bracket wisdom.
I really am. Yeah, that's no.
So, Ed Fang. He's going to write the book on.
How to win your pool, you want to do?
It is daily podcast, Series. Bracket wisdom is going to start
back again on March 7th, and we'll get, you ready to crush
your pool. Look at that.
You're gonna crush your pool. You're gonna, you're gonna be
the Ron Harper jr. Of your pool, you're going to
make a T-shirt and you're just going to be able to carry those
those babies down there. So, check out the bracket wisdom
series, which appears on the football analytics Show podcast.
And as friends of the power rank, you can hook up with them.
Just sign up for the power rank of power rank.com.
AC the power rank.com AC its sports, betting advice with a
PhD Edge. So you understand what you need
to do to bet on analytical level and you're ready for March?
Galen is Indiana ready for March.
Well depends on what you mean by that.
Scott. So here's the thing.
There's been a lot of work going to the dark web and looking for
an IT Bracketology again, like this is such a dirty feeling.
I mean, you still grow looking for like, you know, illicit
drugs and and IIT projections, I mean there's a possibility that
yes, you're going to have to do exactly that.
Here's the thing and this has become as it often is unpopular
of me to say but Indiana is not out of the NCAA tournament.
Playoff picture for a jury selection picture.
They're just not. I know people want to bury them
and look I'm disgusted. I'm very disappointed in how
Indiana has played. I'm very disappointed in this
string of losses. I am not, I can't in good
conscience. Look at Indiana's resume and
say, Well, they're not going to make the NCAA tournament at this
point. I think it's become very
fashionable to exclude them. But honestly, they're in a mix
with a bunch of other teams that could be switched around by one
Victory. And so when I look at Indiana
right now, what I see is this I see a team that if they go up
and win at Purdue they're going to be in the NCAA tournament.
Regardless, that is a Very to me, it's a very straightforward
equation and and here's my rationale for that.
If they win that game, they'll be 10 and 10 in the conference
and they'll be 19 and 11 and they'll have a road win at
Purdue which is considered a very good win.
I mean, you know, I think Wisconsin's one at Purdue and
that's the only team that's one. There's your Indiana would
become only the second team to win at Purdue All Season that
carries a lot of weight. And I think for the NCAA
tournament selection committee at this, Point.
All they're looking for is a pulse from some of these teams
that are on the bubble and whether it's at the close of the
regular season or in the conference tournament, if you
can show you can win games away from home, particularly against
teams like Purdue that tells the committee.
If we put this team in the NCAA tournament, they're not going to
embarrass us or themselves. They're going to be able to play
well away from home, you know, Indiana's, what's going good for
Indiana right now, I guess is this is a, they still That game
on the schedule and I know everybody's dreading it.
I'm dreading it. I don't really want to watch it.
But reality is it's there and it's actually an opportunity for
Indiana if they can take advantage of it.
The second thing that's really helping Indiana is that because
of the way Indiana's lost these games, the power rankings like
them, you know, the like torvik doesn't get used necessarily in
the selection process, but they are still, I think 23rd in
torvik, you know, Ken Palm does. Is generally get looked at and
even with the losses, their 47th, and they're right in the
mix, with other teams that are under consideration for at large
birds. Now, they're kind of at the
bottom of that list, but like, an SMU, for instance is ten
spots below. Indiana, Miami is 13 spots
below. Indiana.
VCU is below them, you know, there's a couple of other teams.
Creighton is 67th in can pop. So what Indiana's managed to
accomplish in terms of how they've played.
Holds up fairly. Well, if you look at the actual
Power Rankings, but the flip side is their non-conference
strength of schedule was horrible.
And they just haven't won that many games.
Like you said, the last time they beat a team that wasn't,
you know, clearly going to miss the NCAA tournament, was when
they beat Purdue. And that was January 20th, and
you have to go all the way back to January, 6th to find the last
time before the Purdue game that they beat a team that's going to
go to the NCAA. A tournament ultimately, the
only wins they have against teams going to the NCAA
tournament, for sure, right now our home game against Ohio,
State and a home game against Purdue.
And I think if I'm the committee, I'm looking at that
and I'm saying, you need to show me more, like, if you'd won, if
they won that game at Ohio State.
I don't think we're having this conversation.
If they'd won the game wanted at one of the two Wisconsin games.
If they won, one of the two Wisconsin games, if they'd won
the game at Northwestern, you know, even though that wasn't
necessarily, you know, that wasn't a Irwin.
It's a road win and it they would already have guaranteed
themselves a 500 record in conference.
They've had so many missed opportunities down the stretch
and now they're out of opportunities except for the
Purdue game. If they lose that game.
Now, I do think they're going to end up in a situation where
they're going to have to beat Michigan and because that's now
with Michigan. Losing the Iowa last night.
That's almost certainly who they're going to play, and
they're going to have to go out and beat Purdue or excuse me.
Wisconsin in the 18-game the following day.
I don't have faith in them beating Michigan.
Let alone beating Michigan followed up by beating
Wisconsin. So, you know, essentially the
whole season at this point, really feels like it's riding on
this Purdue game because again, I'd love to I'd love to say
look, we've got evidence that they can win on a neutral floor
against good competition. I don't think we've got that at
this point. So it's hard to, you know, given
not just the overall history of IU in the Big Ten Tournament,
but also given Their history against the teams that they're
going to have to play you. It's hard to look at that Big
Ten Tournament match up and see anything other than a game.
That looks a lot like the game. Indiana played against Michigan
at home. A couple of months ago, which
was not a very pretty exercise. I have one thought, two
questions. First, it just kind of yes/no
questions. If they beat Purdue at Purdue,
do you think they're like, are they in hard stop?
No matter what happens if they in the in the Big Ten
Tournament, I think they They are I think a team that's coming
off a win in March at Purdue, which is one of the probably
three or four toughest places to play in the country.
This year that pushes you to a 500 record in conference gives
you a season sweep against a team.
That is at the worst. Probably a two seed that is
going to be enough for the committee to say, you know in
comparison to some of these other bubble teams.
We feel like Indiana should be in the field.
So that's I think that yes there for their info.
Stop. If they win on Saturday, if they
lose on Saturday. Do you think two wins is enough
to get them in? I know where theoretically, you
know, theorizing, but like, do they, they be Michigan.
They beat Wisconsin. The question is, obviously, is
that enough? Yeah, that would be enough
because, for this reason, they have a neutral Court win against
a prospective NCAA tournament team in Michigan.
They have a neutral Court win against a minimum two seed in
Wisconsin, who won the Big, Ten title outright and that would
mean that theoretically that point they're 11 and 11 in
overall conference play and even if they go out and lose the next
game and you know, at that would that would probably be against
I'm not even sure who that game would be against at this point.
I guess if you look at the seed calculations for whoever the
four seed would be here, so would be either.
So be Rutgers or Iowa, maybe which that's actually kind of a
winnable game. But even if they lost that game,
both of those teams are going to the NCAA tournament.
I think at this stage Rutgers is the only one where the that win
for them at Indiana. Should have put them in.
They've got one more game at home against Penn State.
They'll be 12 and 18. Conference, they'd be 18 and 12
on the season. Even if they lost to Iowa.
I think they'd be in the NCAA tournament, given everything
else that they've done. But yeah, for me, winning two
games and then a loss against one of those teams in the
semi-finals of the Big Ten, that would be, that would not be a
problem. I think Indiana would would, you
know, from that be able to get into the NCAA tournament?
We talked about two wins in the Big Ten Tournament.
Like it's no big deal when you know, I like I'm Trying to think
when was the last time? Indiana, won two games in the
Big Ten tournament was a 2002. Well, I was talking with a
friend this morning and it's like, it was like, do we need to
win two or three? You know, if we lose to Purdue
when two or three, it's like we've made the Big Ten final.
As many times. We made the final four in the
last 20 years. So it's like those are kind of
off the table. But here's my positive thought
for IU fans. I can't believe I'm taking this
side. I love it.
You know, I remember talking to people at Bankers Life or game
Bridge Field House going into that Notre Dame game and people
were down because we just lost the Syracuse game, the Wisconsin
game and it's like, okay, but like if we win this game, like
if they can beat Notre Dame, we're back on.
We beat Notre Dame that people feel better.
And then we lost Penn State. It's like, oh no, but they went
out and beat Ohio State and if people were kind of really
getting nervous after the Iowa lost than we beat Purdue.
And probably myself a little bit too much include.
It's like, okay, this This is like that show that like, the
faith, the leadership. And man.
It's like, we didn't know, two days later.
It's like, oh, shit, we're gonna lose the Michigan.
But the point is, and I was guilty of this, a little bit
too. Right after the Rutgers game.
You took a breath. And it's like, okay.
We are not out of the NCAA tournament.
I know we're all looking at this game, at Purdue is an L.
But it's the reason we were so - after the Iowa game is, we are
looking at, like, it's like, oh shit.
We got a paper due and Mission, we're gonna lose back-to-back
home games. Well, we didn't and this is the
the flip side. I'd is, I'm not saying it's
easy. My joke is always like hope is
not a plan. But in this case, you got to
kind of hope that this team could do things that they
haven't shown, they've been able to do in two or three months,
but like there are still out. There are still doors open like
we are not having this podcast after a season-ending loss, go
out and win a game like and like but you said it, you said it
fantastically a couple minutes ago that like they've kind of
used up all their other options. Like this is the last they
backed themselves into a corner and this is not the Easiest one,
like, would have been much easier to just go ahead and, you
know, win that game at Wisconsin, where I give you a 20
point lead, like cash that one in or go ahead and beat at
Northwest. There's a lot of easier ways to
get there but you still got one left and, and that is the
positive side of things. Is you go out and win this game,
you're in the NCAA tournament, and you've washed away a lot of
the sins. So to speak of the last two
months, but you got to go do it but you can still do it.
I mean, it's, it's not impossible.
Teams can go to Purdue. And when you look at from a Our
point of view. That's the other thing that I
really hope to see is honestly outside of Purdue just hating IU
/. Do really has nothing to play
for in this game. I mean, they're big 10 seed is
set, you know, they, again, they hate.
I you, the fans have everything to be fired up for, but from a
Purdue team that kind of locked in where they're gonna be.
I mean, there are two seed in the NCAA tournament.
They maybe have an outside shot at a one, but that's going to
happen in the Big Ten Tournament not against.
I you they don't. We have everything to play for.
So when you look at it from a effort and like who's got more
to play for kind of thing. And that's something that you
look back at games. Like.
Oh, yeah, we'll make sense. Like they had everything to play
for like that should matter. So, that's the positive spin is
like, you have everything to play for Purdue outside of just
wanting to kick your butt, not getting swept by you.
They don't really have much to play for so go win the gate like
you can still there, still it out, there still a door that
says NCAA Tournament, it hasn't been boxed in like it's tougher.
It's a tougher door to open but it's there and that's the
positive way as we still sit. Here were one win gets us in.
I mean, we have a history of not making those winds but let's
like go get the win and I will say this team has done it in the
past where nobody really expected us to win that Ohio
State game after a Penn State loss.
We did it. Nobody expects us to win the
Purdue game. We did it.
Those are both Assembly Hall, fully aware of that.
But like this is a little bit harder, it's Mackey.
But Do it. Like, that's the positive spin.
Is there still a very much a real shot at doing it?
You just this team has to kind of step up and do it and they've
shown no ability. Overall.
I mean the you? Yes, you're right.
They did come back and beat Ohio State and they, you know, but I
bet. And I get it, I get it.
And look, I want to be optimistic.
But I also it's funny. Like somebody asked me, you
know, it was, I think it was an assembly call because I was on
that after the Minnesota game and they were I can do as your
heart rate come down. Yes.
I'm all right and go up like I expect this and I'm at the point
where I want you to do well, but this this vintage of IU
basketball, you just expect that they're going to come up short
when it matters and I think they deserve credit for beating
Purdue this year. They needed to do that.
I think the idea that they're going to find the internal
fortitude that is frankly been lacking in this team and this
program for several years now to suddenly figure How to go up and
win in Mackay for the first time in a decade.
In this circumstance, even with Purdue technically not having.
I mean I disagree that Purdue has nothing to play for.
I think Purdue is there. They are playing for seeding,
not in the Big Ten Tournament, but in the big dance at this
stage and this is a disappointing, Purdue team.
I think it's actually kind of hilarious that a Purdue team
that's got the best offense in the NCAA that, you know, this
was their golden year when they had all of the pieces in place
and they have a lottery Pick and they've got these Twin Towers.
Down low and they've got a great outside shooter there.
They're in danger of like dropping off the to line in the
NCAA tournament. They're not going to win the Big
Ten regular season. They're not probably the
favorite to win the Big Ten Tournament.
They have blown it. This is actually I think a kind
of a hilariously disappointing produces and now it's
significantly more successful than anything.
I you is done over the last nine years.
So yeah, you know, so don't I'm speaking out of this purely out
of spite. As opposed to any, you know,
perceived feelings of moral superiority.
But, but I do think that this Purdue team as disappointing in
context, as this season has been, and the fact that they
have lost two straight games. Now, to close out the season and
they've lost three of their last six.
They're looking at this and they're saying, you think we're
going to lose to Indiana at home.
No, you know, we want to finish 14 and 6.
We want to get our 25th win of the regular.
Season. We want to put ourselves in a
right mental set. As we go into the Big Ten
Tournament. I think they're going to come
out and be absolutely fired up. It's senior night at Mackey
Arena. It's, you know, you're talking,
you know, beating Indiana is not going to when you any awards at
home at this point, but it's still it's a better win than it
would be a bad loss. And yeah, so as far as produce
concerned, they've got a lot to play for just doesn't, it's not
anything with seating. Just more pride and hey, let's
get the season back on track guys.
We're not going to lose three straight for the first time.
I mean, they lost two straight for the first time this season.
The idea that they're going to suddenly turn around and lose.
Three straight seems a little bit unlikely.
I mean, yeah. Yes.
I'm trying to take the positive attitude and then you can't just
come back at a Visser. A me with facts and figures and
things things that are true. But yeah, it's, those are all
the real things. And yeah, if I'm betting, I've
been saying for a while, I'm taking Peru and whatever,
whatever, whatever line they have for news, probably going to
cover it and that's based on my feeling.
But again, it's like it's, you play the game and theoretically,
you could win and it's get it done.
Yeah, that's kind of what it comes down to.
As you've, this team has put themselves in a spot where it's
like, this is the hardest. This is the hardest out for you
to figure out, but you did. That's what you got to do.
Yep. Anyway, that'll wrap it up for
us. Our thanks to the power rank.
Our thanks to home-field apparel, or presenting sponsor
and our thanks to all you folks for listening as Indiana heads
into march, with the same level of uncertainty that we are used
to seeing in March, as for yet. Another season.
If Indiana does make the tournament, they're going to
have To do some work in this month to actually get there and
all we can hope is that what we've seen is not an indication
of what we will see over the course of the last couple of
months. And so that'll that'll be our
big watch item here. Good luck to the Indiana women
as they try to secure home court through the first couple of
rounds of the NCAA tournament. Big game against Maryland today.
If you're listening on Friday as we record this and hopefully for
the women they can turn it around and get themselves.
Victory against an NCAA Tournament down team, and you
know, in Korea improve their seating capabilities as they
head into things. So, for Scott, I'm Galen.
Thanks for joining us here again, on Crimson cast.
And we will catch you folks on the flipside Hoosiers.
Play on Saturday versus Purdue will keep an eye out on that.
Will be back early next week. Bring back the Bison.
So long, everybody.