You're listening to the back home network presented by home
field apparel. Welcome back to Crimson Cask ale
and Flavio Scott Caulfield joining you here as it is
basketball season, it is the 23rd of October and by the end
of this week, we will have a Exhibition game under our
Collective belts for IU, men's basketball, and certainly
women's basketball getting started up as well.
I would like to point you all towards a new podcast, it's not
technically new because it really got started last year
called do the work that's being hosted by Cathy Jamison Jeff,
Marlo. That's taking place within the
back home network infrastructure, go find them on
Twitter, go subscribe to them as they're tackling women's
basketball on a regular basis. Also some good women's podcasts.
Through the IU student media network will be talking about
those podcasts as we go through the season as well, maybe have
those folks on. But today, we're going to talk,
I you, men's basketball. We haven't done a full-on kind
of preseason pod, yet. Both of us have been traveling
Scott. It's good to see you in these
circumstances as we are both definitely ready for basketball
season to begin. I think not just because of some
disappointments elsewhere in the IU Athletics constellation, but
legitimately This is an exciting beginning to the season and it
is one of those Seasons that, you know, maybe it doesn't live
up to expectations, maybe it exceeds expectations.
We don't know. But it does feel like the floor
is a bit higher and Scott, we haven't had those in a while,
you know. We, I feel like we've been
living in purgatory to some degree as far as pre-seasons, go
really since 2013 and, you know, so it's been a decade, but I
feel like I you Comes into this season and the fans and the
podcasters and everybody covering it comes into this
season with a realistic reason for optimism in terms of the
assembled talent and the relative expectations of IU
compared to other folks. So I'm excited.
How are you doing? I'm doing great.
I'm a couple thoughts on that first off.
I was gone last week and I missed.
I love the Ken. Palm drop scheduled.
Oh, yeah. Like, I've been looking for that
and like reloading that page over and over again, and it's
the best, you know, whatever 20 bucks a year, you'll spend like
the amount of information on the can Palm page is ridiculous.
But you look at Indiana's can Palm predictions for the year.
It looks good. Like I've not seen a page like
this is this reminds me of the every year I kind of play
around. Ooh, Ken palm.
And look at some of the other Big Ten teams, and this is one
of those looks were, it's like a lot of W's.
There's only one. Two, one, two, three, five
projected losses. I know our projected record is
22 and nine, but of the win-loss has only five projected losses.
Based on those results, it looks like a page of other teams like
this is like what I'm used to seeing when I look at like
Michigan State or Michigan or Purdue or you know Alabama or
other other programs. It's nice to see it on our page
been looking at Palm or not projected to lose a game after
the New Year? Well, I guess Iowa, but then we
go on like a 10 game winning streak to them when we lose it,
Michigan and other project that's not going to happen.
Yes, but I know I know but it's projection.
That's nice to see. I love seeing green on these on
these. These prediction cheer.
They're not technically green on Kent bomb, but they're green on
other sites. Like for instance, and the thing
that I would say is talking to my wife yesterday driving to a
wedding. We kind of did like a my first
preview pause. So this week talking to her
about it. She's like a are we gonna be
good? Like it sound like we're going
to be good. She's she's very into basketball
but kind of checks out and checks back in right around this
time and we were talking and I was you know my feeling is this
would be kind of the header is I think we're going to be good
this year. I think the question is, is
there a chance that we're going to be really good or great?
And I think that's a fun place to be where we're not just you
know, God can we make an 11 seed tournament?
You know can we eat our way out to 500 in the Big Ten?
It does feel like for this. He's in the floor has been raved
raised where we're going to be good.
The question is, are we going to be able to hit the next level
but to me if we're good and we're competing in that top four
in the Big Ten, that's a, for where we've been and where we
need to go. That's a really good season but
you will dig into it. There's a lot of lot of reason
for optimism. I think I do think people need
to stay, you know, somewhat reserved until we see some of
this for real on the court against other you know,
competent team. Eames.
But yeah, I think that's to me that's the header of the
preseason as Liz, you know, we're going to be good.
The question is, could we be really good or great before we
dive into it? Just a reminder that we are part
of the back home network. The back home network is brought
to you by hold field apparel where you can get some great
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Get yourself suited up as we get started in this upcoming IU,
basketball season. All right Scott.
So I'm gonna kind of take an overview of the metrics first.
Yeah. And then I want to talk about
the individual players because I'm noticing some themes in.
The Discord. Of the Season among fans and on
to certain degrees among media as well, which I think are kind
of missing the point to some degree.
But anyway, we'll get to that. Let's start off with the
metrics. So we're going to ignore
rankings because preseason voting rankings from media
members are about as worthless as you can get.
So we'll start with Ken Palm, which is the one that
everybody's the most familiar with Indiana comes in 12th in
the country in can Palm to start the season projected and you
gotta keep Open mind. How can Palm works?
It takes some of the information from last year and then it also
basically tries to project how the team will perform this year,
given the personnel and right now Indiana is projected with
the 22nd most efficient offense and the ninth most efficient
defense. That's a pretty good combo.
Certainly. There are teams that are in that
top 15 or 20 that maybe have both of their their numbers a
little bit higher or Are in the other one kind of in the middle.
But like, comparatively speaking Kansas is projected eighth and
they have the 16th projected offensive efficiency, and the
10th projected defensive efficiency, Kentucky is, first
Kentucky, I think will actually be very good this year and then
it goes, Texas, Gonzaga Tennessee, Virginia Baylor,
Houston Kansas, North Carolina, Arizona, UCLA, Indiana.
You got to go down to 23rd, to get to the next big 10 team and
that's Iowa. You produce 25th Michigan's
26th. Michigan state is 31st, Ohio
State's 32nd. Illinois is 33rd what that
should tell you. Is this going to be a pretty
good Big Ten Conference this year.
A lot of really good teams, not really, not a great team and I
throw Indiana into that. I don't think Indiana is a great
team in terms of what they've got coming back and what their
setup is. But of that whole mix of, you
know, six or seven teams in the top, 35 Indiana is considered in
the preseason to be the best of those.
You go to the other two ratings pages that I like to use bark
torvik.com tour Vic's a great site.
It's free for those who don't want to pay the very minimal
subscription fee on Ken pom. Very similar Indiana is 11th on
torvik 23rd in defensive efficiency projected, excuse me,
sorry. 23rd and offensive efficiency 12th in defensive
efficiency. The other one is Haslam metrics,
Indiana, not quite as high and Haslem metrics their 18th in
Haslem. A couple of spots ahead of
Purdue and then Ohio, State and Michigan right below that.
But again, overall, I think, you know, you look at this Indiana
team and you say, okay, it's not just fans.
It's also the computers projecting this.
They look at this Indiana Squad and they like what they see.
Now, Scott as we come into this, you look around and it
essentially, there's two stories to tell one is as much as Archie
Miller gets a lot of criticism and rightfully so The overall
performance of Indiana during his tenure.
You you have to say that you know by and large he did raise
the defensive floor for this Indiana program from where it
had been. And that is going to be an
interesting Factor as we go into this upcoming season because you
know, to some degree, you know, Indiana.
They need to be better than they were under Archie.
Miller defensively. They topped out.
I think it 26th verse season last year.
Indiana ended the season up as the what was their final total
they were 24th. So they had an incremental
Improvement relatively speaking. We're talking about a pretty big
leap like a leap of 10 to 15 spots into potentially being a
top-10 defensive team that's going to be crucial.
I think for this Indiana team throughout the course of the
season but then the big leap is on offense.
I mean last year's team was 95th in the country in offensive
efficiency and we're talking about them, taking a leap to
being a top 25. Offensive team which Scott you.
And I have been talking about. It feels like for like six or
seven years now. Like if only Indiana could get
good on offense and they just haven't been able to do so.
So I guess, let me ask you this, what do you think is more likely
Indiana being a top-10 defensive team were being a top 25
offensive team being a defensive top 10 team.
I think all the pieces are there and this is, you know, I hate to
say all this because like, we just finished talking football,
it's like, I'm so nervous. Nervous.
Like my floor, not being true. But you look at to be a good
defensive team. You need good interior defense
to start and all you can say is just like with race Thompson and
Trace Jackson Davis if nothing else.
They've been unbelievably consistent, had a nice growth
trajectory and so it would be an insane aberration if they just
did not come in and provide exactly what they provided last
year, if not more and if they do that you're gonna have one of
the best interior defense. Has the country or at least in
the Big Ten and so you just are So you're starting off with a
great footing, where you have some of the best post offenders.
I mean, Trace Jackson Davis was good and then last year he took
a real step up and you have to assume that's partially his work
and parse through the work of Mike Woodson's defensive
approach. And so you can only imagine it's
going to continue to get better and again just in the history of
trace and race. They've not shown this kind of
like really good really bad. Like they've been both
consistent and steady Growers and so you assume that at least
if you just get What you got last year, you're going to have
a great interior defense. Xavier Johnson has shown that
he's a complete Pitbull and works really hard and if nothing
else. I like, I'm not concerned about
him, providing 100% effort every game like he will do that.
That's going to give you one really good defender on the
perimeter. You just really need to fill in
one or two more spots there. You have a lot of really good
options there. That you hope a guy like Tamar
Bates steps up. If Jordan Geronimo if his you
know, trajectory continues to him.
At the rate that we saw at the end of last year's, you know,
not all of them. This is something that I always,
you know, tell people to, you know, they look at a an
offseason and they give everybody the ultimate, you
know, five, you know, they get the ultimate, you know, ten XP
growth points every year. It's like not, everyone is going
to have the best possible outcome in their results.
But what's great about this team is you don't need that because
you know, that trace and race are going to give you what
they're going to give you, you know, Xavier is going to give
you all you need is. One of the freshmen and either
Tamar Bates or Jordan Geronimo or somebody else just have a
little bit of a growth and it's like, you now have an
unbelievably great defensive team and that's, I think, you
know, a lot of its mentality. And one of the complaints, I
think it was a legitimate complaint during the Archie
Miller era. Was that, even though
fundamentally, I you was sound defensively, they seem to shrink
in big moments, they weren't able to make key plays down the
stretch of games and Also obviously their offense often
let them down and they weren't able to you know, I mean you can
make three great enemy that Purdue game from what was it
like 20 2018 2019 where it was like, 4846 was the final and
it's like Indiana was playing good defense and they just never
got the offense that they needed.
So ended up kind of being this bad feedback loop.
Now last year's team, while it's still struggled from some of
those issues, certainly felt like a team that had more
confidence in itself defensively and relied on each other more
consistently and more effectively in those defensive
situations. And I think as you said like the
the idea for this team is not only have you increased the
athleticism, especially with the, the younger folks that are
here. But also you've increased
frankly, the I think the mentality a bit more because now
you've got a whole nother offseason Worth of practice of
thinking about things of reviewing tape and that is
exciting. And I think what's also nice for
this Indiana team is, you are built around some pretty
athletic players who are big for their positions, you know?
I mean, Trace Jackson Davis race Thompson, TJ D.
Yo, you mentioned Jordan Geronimo who we haven't talked
about yet. Like a lot of the players who
seem to struggle from a physicality perspective, you
don't necessarily have those guys in the guys do Wouldn't
look at and say, wow, your mega athletic, they tend to all be
pretty hard workers for the most part defensively.
So, you know, they're going to need that obviously, as they are
playing some pretty good teams offensively early on in this
season and throughout, but if they can establish that
mentality early on and really hang their hat on it, I do think
that that'll have a kind of a carryover effect in terms of
they know that they've got that in their back pocket and that's
going Going to intimidate other teams and that's going to be a
really fascinating thing to watch, develop because Indiana
just hasn't been an intimidating basketball team to play against
for a long time. And even in the crane era, where
they were intimidating, they tended to be intimidating
because they had a bunch of shots, not because they were a
dynamite defensive team. I mean, really was only 2013
that you could have attributed that kind of play to them.
Yep. Yep.
Well that's and that's when they had, you know, guys like Oladipo
who were just you know crazy Defenders and athletic players
like that. No.
I think it'd be great to see the offense, take a step up what the
offense is going to have to do is we're going to need to have
somebody who can consistently, hit threes?
And the nice thing is, there's some, there's some people who
could do it. You may be at CJ gun, maybe it's
you know, Hood safiye know, maybe it's Miller cop kind of
rounds back into some form. Although I'm a little more
dubious on that one. You maybe tomorrow Bates brings
it into his game, you know, somebody's you can't become a
dynamic offense without one or two people really being a
Deadeye, three-point shooter. We just don't have a history of
seeing it the but the thing is, I'm not being pessimistic
because there's going again on offense, you know, and Xavier
Johnson actually was a pretty good three-point shooter last
year. You look at the numbers.
Like it wasn't that bad but you're going to have a lot of
opportunity because if you if you have, you know, trace and
race in the post and they're doing what they're doing, the
court is going to be open for people to hit Threes And if
they're if you have somebody starting to hit threes, it's
actually going to become. As you just said a good positive
feedback. Because now the defense is gonna
have to stretch out. It's going to give Trace more
room to move in the bait in the, in the post, which is then going
to cause more issues like, but there's gonna be an opportunity
for someone to do it. It's just, I can't sit here and
say it's going to happen because we haven't seen it happen in
five or six years. And we've heard about, you know,
guy Anthony Leo was a great high school, three point shooter and
it has not translated yet. And so the fact that CJ gun was
a great high school shooter, I'm not saying it can't happen.
It's just I haven't seen it. I need to see it before.
I'm willing to say it whereas under Defense.
I've seen it. Yeah.
No I think that's fair. You know, you look at Indiana
from a three-point shooting perspective as a program over
the course of time and it really it's a fascinating tale.
I mean, if you go back and look, I'm going to just read off
percentages program wise since 2010.
Let's just start there. Alright, 34.1% in 2010 34.6% in
2011, 43.1% in And that's the kind of jump that we talked
about last year. It's like, hey is this a
possibility? And if you think about that
team, that 2012 team, you know, it was really about Jordan holes
becoming more mature as a shooter and as a player but it
was also about Christian Watford hitting 44% of this threes.
It was about Derek Elston coming in off the bench and hitting 55%
of those threes. It was about Matt Roth, being
able to play in limited minutes and he 84% of his threes.
It wasn't just the primary players.
It was the role players coming in and contributing now
continuing on Indiana was slightly worse in the 2013
season. They were 40.3% 34.4% and
fourteen forty point, six percent, 15 41.6%, 16 38% and 17
and it goes 32.2%, 31.2% 32.6% 32.4% and then last year.
And I Oasis, 33.3%, where is Indiana going to land in
three-point shooting? I think is a huge question,
mark. And as you said, I mean, you
look at this roster and you look at the players that are on it.
And there are individuals who have shown some promise Xavier
Johnson. Obviously, being one of them at
thirty eight point three percent from last year.
Even Jordan Geronimo at 31%. It's like, well, that's at least
something that you can build off of and then the rest of the
Oscar. It's like you've got Miller cop
obviously, as the other one at 36 point, 36 point one percent,
that's a guy that has to take a leap in terms of his production.
I don't know if he's necessarily capable of doing that because
you look at cops history as a player, his best season at
Northwestern, he shot 39.6 percent from three and that was
with a pretty high volume of shots.
Now that would be fine but you've got to have some guys who
can come in and in limited minutes, get shots up and hit
them. And that's going to be a big
question. I think more about the way the
offense is Assured, as much as it is about the individual
confidence of the players. So I do think that that plays a
big role in it, because if you can plug that in with the
existing efficiency that is there with Trace Jackson Davis,
who has consistently been one of the most efficient scorers in
college basketball. During his career, I'll be at
almost entirely from to. Now you've got not your cooking
a bit on offense. Now, you're able to say, hey
instead of, you know, barely averaging a point per
possession, adjusted Now you're averaging 1 Point 1 or 1 Point
12 points per possession and that really does make a
difference statistically over the course of the season.
That's the kind of thing that turns 12 losses into six or
seven, because the variance there goes in your favor more
than going against you. The thing, one of my big
questions going into this year is at the end of last season,
you know, when Indiana turned it around and beat Michigan.
And then be Illinois, laid, Iowa very well.
Well, and then beat Wyoming. One of the things that changed
was, you definitely saw a two-man game developed between
Xavier Johnson and Trace Jackson Davis.
And it wasn't, it just kind of came about.
It almost every one of those games there was at least, you
know, to alley-oops where Xavier would drive the drive, the floor
alley-oop to trace, and it would be a duck and they had a great
little two-man game going, which, you know, you're adding
more to this year's team. I'm very curious.
Is to see if that continues because if that continues and
that becomes a backbone where it's like, all right, if we're
starting to get into that slog, again where our offense isn't
working, it's like we know we can fall back on a nice two main
game, which, you know, it's not like they did it again.
Slouches last year, my Illinois is one of the best teams in the
country and they, they ran that over and over again.
They did it against Michigan. Didn't pretty high-pressure
situations where they had to win some games and if they're able
to cab that as a baseline, it's like, aren't we always know?
We can go to that. Two-man game if they're able to
work that I'm just very curious to see if that rolls over and
continues to be part of the offense.
Because if that is something that can continue to work that
again, is just a nice floor that you can build everything else
off of it, it's going to make life a million times easier.
For guys like hook Ruffino and Miller cop, it all those guys
trying to come in as like if because if you can have that
going then it's like everything else becomes easier.
So I'm very curious to see if that continues and if it
develops and grows up with an offseason of those guys.
Team together. So I want to switch gears a
little bit, not too much but a little bit and talk about the
players and we're going to we're going to do it like follow.
So we're going to use the Scott Caulfield theorem of freshmen
and we're going to put all the freshmen in their own bucket.
And we're going to, we're going to kind of set them aside for
the moment. We'll come back and talk about
them. But I've really, I've been
trying to get my head around, how I feel about the roster this
season, and what my expectations are and I've basically got the
returning players in three different groups.
And so I'm going to walk through those groups and see if you
agree with me on the groups and then we can kind of talk through
what the potential implications are of each of the groups and
who we expect to actually contribute consistently
throughout the course of the season.
Because one of the things and this is what I was referring to
at the beginning of the podcast. I've seen a lot of talk from
fans, I'm even seeing it from certain media, it's like, well,
who's gonna Consistently since it looks like Indiana goes, ten
or eleven deep. And I remember having similar
conversations in multiple previous years and it never
actually works out that way where have every year, and then
it's like, we have no bench but come February, it's like, trivia
question for you Scott. How many players last year
played more than 55% of possible minutes?
I'm not going to look at Ken Pompey, trees up on my other
screen, probably like, no more than 65.
He's five players. I was traced Jackson Davis race
Thompson. They played the most Xavier
Johnson Miller, cop, and then Parker Stewart.
That was your fight. That was the top of everybody
else. On the roster played, I think
something like thirty three percent or fewer of available
minutes and that includes Jordan Geronimo that includes Tamar
baits. That includes Rob fantasy, that
includes tray. Galileo, Galilei was injured.
So you kind of give him a little bit of a pass point.
Being like there really weren't as many contributors as I
thought that there were going to be last year and did the last.
I'm just doing quickly that the previous two years, it was five
players and then for playwrights know it's a very valid points
and I think about every year that we always start the year
being like I don't know how we're going to get hitched if
you know any playing time. It's like no, there'll be time
for playing time. For everybody will get to a
point where it's like I don't want anybody off the bench.
Well go ahead and I think I mean, it's to some degree.
What lesson do you take out of it?
And for me, I guess where I've landed on it?
Is this idea that ultimately a lot of these players?
No, they, they're, they're press clippings are good.
They're Q scores high, but realistically, there's plenty of
opportunities to get on the floor.
If you're practicing well, and if you go out and actually
execute and you look at the players who didn't participate
in more than thirty, three percent of available minutes
last year, and there were clear reasons why they didn't
tomorrow, Bates could not shoot to save his life.
Rob fennessy could not score to save his life.
Trey Galloway again. A lot of that had to do with
injury but Well, you know, that it's hard to know fully what
you're going to get out of tray Galloway yet at this point.
So on and so forth. And I think you go back to
previous years. It's the same thing.
So you know, as much as Archie Miller system, for instance, was
ripe for criticism. At the end of the day, guys, got
to step up and play. And if you don't you're probably
not going to get minutes and that ultimately is going to be
the big question mark coming into this year.
I know it's like dub. I look at it like this.
This year, you've got players That I would put into three
separate buckets, the top bucket, the players that have
demonstrated that they can consistently contribute on both
offense and defense and are going to get the Lion's Share of
minutes aren't. And are essentially the core
around which Indiana has to build this year.
That's Trace Jackson Davis, race Thompson and Xavier Johnson.
And I feel like those three are going to start every single
game. Unless there's a suspension or
something, and they are going to have to be the offensive and Of
engines that drive this Indiana basketball program forward.
And, you know, you can do a lot with a cord that is that strong
three guys who have played, you know, four or more years of
college basketball, who have demonstrated an ability to score
efficiently. All three of those players were
above a point per possession and offensive efficiency, all three
of those players have demonstrated that they're very
good in their individual skill, set areas, Trace Jackson Davis.
Of course, one of the top rebounders in the country, so is
race time. Epson Xavier Johnson, 14th in
the country, and assist rate last year draws a lot of fouls.
I feel good about that being the core, because you've got a point
guard, you've got a 4 and a 5, or a 3 & A 4, however, you want
to set it up that those are the positions that allow you to play
around with some of the other ones.
Do you disagree with any of that?
No, I agree with that 100%. So the second group of players
and this is where it gets a little bit tricky.
My second bucket of three is players who I feel.
You'll very positively about their potential.
Because of their athleticism or because of what they've
demonstrated and or players who might be able to provide some
volume in terms of either scoring or defensive minutes.
My three players in that bucket. Are Jordan Geronimo.
Tamar Bates and Miller cop now, they're all kind of different
players. I mean, Geronimo, you know, at
least for me I look at that guy and I'm like, that's a guy who
could take a Victor Oladipo style leap, he's got the talent,
he's got the size, he's got Flexibility in terms of what he
does. You know, he shot 31 percent
from three last year which is probably the most surprising
statistic that I might look. And I granted that was only nine
made threes but still, but he was almost 60 percent from two,
he rebounded, the ball. Well, while he was in there and
it looks like that's a guy who if he can play, the way that he
played at the end of the year, throughout the entirety of the
Season, could just lock himself into a starting position for the
course of the season and I feel the same way about Miller cop.
Like cop played a bunch started all 35 games, but I felt him
relatively underwhelming on both offense and defense.
There were moments when he played very well.
But there were also a lot of moments where you just kind of
it looked like to some degree was going through the motions a
little bit and, you know, for every the Iowa game where he,
you know, he was, you know, 24/7 from three, but I thought played
fairly well overall, you know. But his offensive rating was
just not where it needed to be. You know, you flip that around,
you look at that, you know, the Michigan game in the tournament
or some of the games down the stretch in the conference.
He showed flashes, but he just wasn't consistent enough, but
he's got clearly the skill set. And this is going to be his
fifth year in the Big Ten. That's a guy where it's like you
need to. This is a player who needs to
play like a Max Bill felt or an exhaust Loft, you know, a guy
who has a defined somewhat limited skill set but it doesn't
take anything off the table. What he adds to the table more
than makes up for whatever. Asians he's got on defense or
whatever the third guy and Tamar Bates.
You know he had a kid last year who's a freshman.
It was a transitional year looked like he was really
struggling to find his spot you know I mean that was a five-star
recruit clearly a guy that's got a lot of innate athleticism and
basketball Talent. You look at his statistics and
you're like, there's no way you can be that bad offensively for
a second year. And that's ultimately, what kept
him off the floor. If you can, if he can make more
shots, if you can be Efficient of a scorer that adds a
tremendous additional facet to Indiana's back court that they
frankly just didn't have last year.
So anyway, any thoughts on that? Yeah, I would I would swap
Miller cop for Trey Galloway and here's why I agree with what you
said on Jordan Geronimo. He, you know, as IU basketball
fans, you know, we saw it with Oladipo, we saw with ogn an OB
and I think we're highly attuned to look for guys who like are
ready to make that leap. With and are Geronimo checks,
all of those boxes, you know, the last couple games of the
season in the tournament, he was just amazingly, hit threes
making blocks and he you know, this is a perfect situation for
him to really have a great year because I think he's going to be
overqualified to be kind of the third, big man in this lineup.
And so, you know, if he's in a lineup with Trace Jackson, Davis
and race Thompson, obviously defensively teams are going to
What him as like, well, he's the third person.
You got to worry about when in reality, he's probably a number
two or maybe a possible number one option, but he's going to be
getting the third defensive, you know, option on him.
So he's at a spot where he can really make some hay this year
and is going to be kind of cast in a great position for him to
make that leap. So I agree with all of that and
I agree with you, on tomorrow Bates, it last year, he showed
moments on defense reads like this guy's got unbelievable
athleticism. It felt like on offense, he was
really pressing and it's like, he felt like he knew like I only
have two minutes, I got to do something and that's not a great
place to be. We're like you're trying to push
it and then you're kind of going against the game playing.
So I gotta show, I could do something.
And he just got to find a way to let the flow come to him and
show a little more, but you would expect not that, not a
great jump. But at least something more to
me. I look at Trey Galloway as he's
shown flashes, like he's been cut short with injury more than
anything else. But when he's had a nice, Little
stretch, he's had, you know four or five games in a row.
R has offensive rating has been over 100, he's had some really
good stretches when he's been healthy and he also kind of
provides a really nice defensive spark.
So when I look at kind of the athletic guys with some upside,
I would put him in more than cop.
Because with cop, I think you're going to get what you're going
to get and for him. It's like you just need him to
be a better spot up shooter when he gets looks.
And hopefully this year he's going to get more open looks,
but I think cop. His kind of you are going to get
what you're going to get. So I would make that do that
flip but you didn't. So tell us why you have Galloway
in the others in the next bucket.
Here's the thing. So this is and I want everybody
to understand, there's nothing personal about any of the
comments that were making about the players.
People get really hung up on players, they love and any
criticism of players is interpreted, like, you know,
you're an asshole. I get that.
But this is the challenge of trying to podcast objectively.
Here's the thing about Miller cop and I like I said, I wasn't
Terribly impressed with his effort in some of the games last
year. Look, like he was kind of just
out there but he doesn't turn the ball over very much and he
does hit a decent amount of shots.
I mean, in the last three years of college basketball, he's shot
39% 32 percent, thirty six percent from three.
He's not the most efficient scorer and that does need to get
better but I feel like he takes less off the table than Callaway
does. Because if you look at Galloway
and I know Galloway was injured last year, but at the end of the
day, Trey Galloway for his career.
He said, two consecutive years where his turnover rate was
over, 22% was 22.8%. His freshman year was 22.8% his
sophomore year and that's troubling.
Like if you're not, if you're not a volume scorer, if you're
not a guy who can put a bunch of points up on the board and you
don't have a clearly defined position because Trey Galloway
is not a point guard and he's not really an effective to
because he's shot from three, 18% and 21% in his two years at
IU. So, So far and you're turning
the ball over 23% of the time. You do something while only
assisting outfit 15 percent and 16 percent, which are is assist
numbers. Essentially, you're in that -
and I look, I know, he's, he does play defense fairly well,
but not well enough to justify the lack of offensive production
now could trade Gala, we make a big leap.
Absolutely. But the purpose of these buckets
is what do I feel like I know about a player based upon what
we've seen and what, Our athletic and physical
characteristics are and how will that translate?
And I just at this point unless Trey Galloway does a kind of a
Tom Coverdale after his sophomore year thing where he
just blossoms which is entirely possible.
They know they share some characteristics physically at
least. It buys players, Maybe not
today, you know, but unless he makes that kind of a leap you
know, especially with the freshmen coming in, I have a
hard time, seeing him getting a huge amount of playing time.
And I also look at him and say, thus far what you showed me has
not impressed me to the point where you are a key part of a
formula. That's getting Indiana.
A Big Ten title. So that's my rationale.
No, that's, that's totally fair. I just, I look at it as he has
more upside in my mind than Miller cop, I get where you're
coming from. And I would also say with Trey,
it's like it, you almost have to give him an incomplete because
he just has not had a healthy stretch, right?
Just it's tough. And you hope that he can just
have a year where he's Stays healthy.
And it feels like when he's starting to understand his
rhythm is right when he gets his right when he gets injured and
then he's like, he's playing injured.
So, but everything you said is valid to, but go ahead with next
bucket. So the next bucket I have
Galloway for all the reasons I just mentioned, then I think of
the three and you're right. I mean, Galloway does have some
upside. I just, I don't think his
current grade justifies playing him.
Just for the upside, especially if Indiana has any, any desire
to actually win the Big Ten title, the other two are low And
Duncan who has essentially been a nonentity like he's day, he
doesn't even have a Ken Palm page from last year because he
played. So, so infrequently and Anthony
Lille, you know, soleal, when I look at Leo, you know, I look at
a guy who has been able to come in and eat Play-Doh play limited
minutes but it's a similar story to Trey Galloway where he you
know he shot the ball better than Galloway.
From three thirty percent is freshman year. 31 almost 32
percent his sophomore year but Turn the ball over, too much to
justify, what little, he's been able to provide on that end. 25%
is freshman year was better last year, only turn the ball over on
20%, but when you're in in limited minutes and you're
turning the ball over one out of every five times, that's a
problem. And now Leo's also suffered from
some injuries and I know he's had some enemies in a boot.
I think for Hoosier hysteria you know and we hope that he gets
better. But again this is a guy who
physically speaking. And in terms of what he can do
alone, shooting the ball is, you know, could provide some key
moments. But I would just I right now, if
you're, if you're spreading the players out into tears, he's
certainly in that lower tier Logan, dunk on his a guy who we
just don't know a whole lot about.
We've heard a lot in the preseason about how Logan Duncan
looks really good. All of a sudden, the Logan duck
comes like really providing you know, some competition that's
great but We've heard that before you know like dmarc
Michelle was supposed to be a top-notch player in a grand.
He never saw the floor but we hear this.
A lot of times like what player really is looking good and it's
gotten better. It's almost impossible to think
that you've got a whole lot there, but that's okay.
If you get something out of any, of those three players where
they forced their way in, and they're playing 16 to 20
minutes, that's great. That's awesome.
That really does tell me, hey, I that this IU team has got it
going because they're getting those sorts of contributions.
But to some degree it's like you could get very minimal
contributions from any of those three.
As long as the the top six that I've highlighted are
contributing consistently not turning the ball over scoring
efficiently. Playing good defense and I think
Indiana still in really good shape.
Then you've got the three income or the for incomers really one.
Sorry go quick thing on Leo like to know, just one quick thing,
only old it's you know it's tough because of all the guys
that I watched like warming up, he has the best-looking
three-shot. Like I know, there's no Shooter
in high school. It's wild but you do, and it's
from Bloomington. So that a lot of things going
there. But you know, I bring this up
often, you know, stuff goes by fast in college like he's
already halfway done with his career at IU like he's halfway
there and normally things are mostly solidified and he's just,
you know, he's a 30% 30%, three-point shooter.
Yeah, and a 63% free-throw shooter, it's totally unfair.
It's on 11 attempts like is not a lot of options numbers there.
But, you know, even I sometimes think like, throw them in the
He's a Deadeye, three-point shooter, and it's like the
numbers in games, just do not substantiate that.
And, and I don't want to pick on him because he's no out of near
the end of the bench. But it's like it is tough for
me, because I even get into that, like, I throw it hit some
threes, it's like for being a career 30%, 3-point shooter,
that's not somebody who can come in and just, you know, for all
the Guff we gave Parker Stewart. He was like, shooting 34, 35
percent, you 30% is just not ideal.
And again, it's not like, you know, he does have a lot of
options, but it's like, he's at the end of this year, he's going
to be 75. I percent done with his college
career so it's like there's half as careers already done.
And look again, it's not personal.
I love to see. Anthony will do well.
He's a great story but at least this is a competitive landscape
and I think to some degree It's why it's why you have to play
against defenders in college, basketball, rather than just,
you know, you get credit for shooting on your own because you
can have a great looking stroke, but there's other elements as we
all know that have to go into being a good player and at the
end of the day, you know I always get a kick out of fans or
media clamoring for a player to play that isn't playing.
It's like do you think coaches aren't putting what they think
is the best lineup for the best players out there on a
consistent basis? And then, so I would love for
Lille to contribute. I would love for dunk them to be
able to come in and contribute. I guess my point in all of this
is not to criticize them but simply say, if they don't, it is
not a crisis. If you get contributions out of
the top six or top seven returners and that I would throw
Galloway into that makes he certainly belongs to that second
bucket more than he belongs to the third.
Just not as much as I think. Some people think that he does,
then you've got the four For newcomers coming in jail and
Josephine. Oh Malik renew, Caleb Banks and
CJ gun. This is going to be interesting
when you know one of the cool things about bart torvik site is
he does try to quantify the potential contributions of
incoming players and you don't necessarily mean you don't see
those things on Ken Pon. But you do see them on torque on
torvik because he's got this page is like top 10 projected
contributors and what he's got is One who'd, shh, Fino
contributing at a higher rate than Tamar Bates or Jordan
Geronimo, which is a really fascinating thing to think
about. Because, you know, to some
degree I think we we all get in a murdered with Geronimo and
Bates because we know what the recruiting hype was with
Geronimo. We saw how he played, you know,
in the Big Ten tournament and we're like, wow, can we
capitalize on that? But, statistically, you look at
the whole season and it's like, okay.
I understand why the computers aren't quite as high as the fans
are on these individuals. Who'd shit.
Fino with his statistical profile.
The projection right now on torvik is that he'd come in and
average 63 and a half and one and a half, you know, so, six
point three and a half rebounds 1 and a half assists and
essentially immediately slot in as the second point guard on
this team. And you know now that said it
also projects tray Galloway to score about 7 points a game.
I'm not 100% certain, I'm in on that.
But but that's, I do think that if you try to project out Hood
sure Fino to me has the best opportunity to make the largest
contribution of the incoming players immediately and at a
rate that would put him, I guess.
Squarely in that second bucket of players that Indiana's got of
guys who we're not totally sure because we haven't seen them do
it in multiple Seasons, but a guy that's clearly got the
talent and the ability to contribute at a very high level
coming right out of the gate. Yeah.
The, the torvik contributors. It's like, it's it's interesting
to see who Chief, you know, and he said above Geronimo and
Bates. I do think we're not going to be
in for a great season, if trig always having, you know, a
better statistical impact than Hood Shafi.
Know, like part of where I think this team can be supercharged,
is if Renault or Hood shh pheno is truly the five-star that we
expect to be getting like and this is again, no will continue
to preface this no knocking any players.
Individuals. But, you know, it does feel like
when other programs get five stars, like, oh, this guy's the
five-star, like he's suddenly, take you over the offense and
doing things the freshman and then, you know, we have tomorrow
Bates who comes in and like it struggles trying to find his
footing. It's like, that's not that's not
the kind of five-star duke or Kentucky gets.
And but this team, you know what I do like is the little bit that
I've seen the media. Talk about Hood Shafi know his
teammates talk about it does and just watching him he looks like
he has a college ready. Body it I'm starting to To get
the feel like he really could be a legitimate impact, five-star
freshman to come in and make some things happen.
The one just side. Note that kind of made me
chuckle, but I saw a comment were traced Jackson Davis said,
oh, what's your fee knows a one and done with this guy is you
know he's gonna be a one and done.
I thought, what I thought to myself Trace we all thought the
same thing about you before your freshman year.
And Tamar base, we are. Yeah, and here we are four years
later. You're still here.
I will say it wasn't. I will say, and I thought the
same thing. We'll say it was also the pro
Scouts, who said the same thing about Hood, should be no.
And that there's a big difference between, you know, a
random recruiting board reporter saying this guy's a one-and-done
and actual Pro Scouts coming in and saying the same thing.
And so, anyway, will you take, I mean, we just don't have a good
at. There's not a lot of, you know,
one and done analogies and Indiana history.
So please forgive the analogy because I'm not saying this is
the expectation or even he plays like that but, you know this is
where again back to my initial premise, you know?
A thesis for the year, you know, we're going to be good.
Are we going to be great? Is if, you know, the Baseline,
let you talk about Xavier Johnson and race Thompson, and
Trace Jackson Davis. If Hood Shafi, do comes in and
plays again, pardon the comparison, but plays like an
Eric Gordon type level suddenly like, you know, that's a true,
five star one and done type player.
If he comes in comes in and plays like that with the base
that we already talked about with those three, then suddenly,
the needles moving toward great, Very quickly and that that's the
part that gets me very excited. I don't think we even need that.
If you take Renault and Hood, shh, pheno as a combination that
together, they kind of play at that level, that's really good.
But know, everything I'm hearing about Hood.
Chiffino's starting to get me very excited.
I just again, what everyone's just pump the brakes.
And let's like, let's see it against Xavier.
Let's just see how it goes against a real opponents, but
no, it's Everything we're hearing is good and you're right
II. The teammates talking about
teammates that is all with a huge grain of salt.
But Pro Scouts talking about it is different.
But again, you're only seeing guys, you know, there's guys who
have great workouts and get drafted high in the NBA and
can't do it in games. You know, let's see how it
happens against Real opponents but there's a lot of Spidey
senses for me that are tingling that are like this kid could be
the real deal and if he is it's going to open up everything for
everybody else. Then again back.
The great thing is like now if you know just a little you draw
tomorrow or one of those guys has a jump, it's like now you're
really Edge into a great. But no, it's I'm very very
excited to see what Hood Fino can bring on this team and even
as a backup point guard that's we had trouble with last year.
Xavier Johnson was fantastic. As our point guard, he will be
our starting point guard but you know, he's at times prone to get
into foul trouble, prone to kind of get a little bit, you know,
overheated and just you need to kind of settle him down and we
did not have a good second. Last year when Rob fantasy got
injured, right? And so if you're able to have
somebody that you can hand the ball off to, it's like this is
not a drop-off that also is a great place to be.
Yeah, it's it's really the whole thing's fascinating and look, I
think the other players this is the thing I think is
interesting, this is why you want to have athletic skilled
basketball players bring coming into your program, on a regular
basis because I was really intrigued by Malik renew.
I, you know, I've heard a lot of good things about Your bank's CJ
gun. I feel like there's almost got
lost in the conversation a little bit, but that's the guy
that I'm really intrigued by based upon how he performed in
high school. And I think the key as you just
mentioned, would save your Johnson is, there's got to be,
they've got to get pushed. You've got to get pushed.
If you are going to be a good team, your starters have to feel
like I have to play at a high level because I'm going to lose
minutes or lose my starting position to the guys behind me
and to wit the what we talked about earlier, About only five
players played over 55 minutes really only five players played.
Only over 35 minutes last year for Indiana.
It's hard to look at that and not draw the conclusion that.
Well, part of the problem is that they weren't getting pushed
sufficiently Enough by the guys who weren't playing that many
minutes, they didn't have Mike, woodsen's trust, they didn't
have Archie Miller's trust the previous year and that
ultimately is how you end up being an average program as
opposed to being a program where you're consistently able to
compete and play it. Level.
And so it's hard to get a clear sense of exactly how those guys
are going to fit into the equation because, you know, we
just don't know how they're going to, you know, evolved to
the college level. But I am really excited about
the possibilities and I think that right now, you know, do
those guys end up higher in the pecking order than the, some of
the players that are currently on the roster, I do think that's
possible. They could end up higher in the
pecking order but I you could still end up with just like
eight players that are playing on a consistent basis and that
might be for the best. Because if you got 10 or 11
players playing on this roster, I'm not sure if that's
necessarily a good thing. That probably is a sign that
stuff isn't going well because you're not getting enough
consistency out of the guys that are supposed to be at the top of
the pecking order. Yep.
No, I agree. And I also agree with you
mention this for a second, but you know, Malik were no.
I am very curious to see him play as well because he's, you
know, again, who knows how these, you know, grading systems
actually end up being real, but he's graded right below hood
phaedo. And he comes in at 68, you know,
has the length and so he could slot in, you know, right there
behind Jordan Geronimo. He could be the best big man on
the second unit. I'm also, you know, this is
where the one thing I would like to see change a little bit as
Woodson had this propensity last year to kind of go line change
for line change in a very MBA style of, we're gonna have a
second unit and a first unit, I do hope that we see more mixing
and matching and like I'd like to see if you know where no is
playing. Well what does he look like with
Trace Jackson? Davis, or, you know, Jordan
Geronimo playing with race Thompson or your let's mix and
match. We have a team where I think you
can do a lot of mixing and matching.
I do hope that we don't get into a situation where it's like, you
have hoods. You do in the second unit and
then you have, you know, Xavier Johnson, the first unit, like I
would love to see some mixing matching.
Let's play Xavier and Hood together, you know?
So I could do it. That's something that pushin
pushin Fina. It's too much, peanut oil.
Yeah, yeah yeah anyway no. I agree with all that and I look
I think ultimately as I you is true.
I mean it's gonna take a while and this is where I would
caution people and we're going to dive into the schedule as we
close things up here, I would caution people to read, not to
read. Too much into the early results
of this season, because I think it's just going to take a little
bit of time for Indiana to figure out, like, who the best?
Fourth and fifth players are. Yeah.
If we were like, Xavier Johnson, Trace Jackson Davis race
Thompson, who's the best fourth and fifth players?
How do they fit? How does that contribute
defensively? Because I do think that that's
going to have to be the starting point for this team and then how
does that translate over offensively and and Fully what
you see either with the newcomers or with Tamar bait
stepping up or another cop stepping up or Jordan Geronimo
stepping up is that you don't have to compromise which I think
in the end has been doing a lot. Not just under Archie Miller,
not just under Mike Woodson but under Tom crean it was like well
we're going to make a stylistic decision that we're going to
sacrifice defense for offense under Tom crane we're going to
sacrifice offense for defense under Archie Miller you know the
best teams don't necessarily have to do that.
I mean, you're not gonna have a perfect roster, but I do think
there's enough pieces and if they come together properly,
you've got the possibility where you don't have to make as many
compromises as Indiana's obviously made over the course
of the last decade, essentially, in terms of who they're playing
and how they're playing them in what formations, they're putting
them in out there on the basketball court.
So that going back to what we started off with.
Scott ultimately is what's going to decide how much of a leap
Indiana's offense And how Indiana's defense makes that
final jump up into the upper echelon of the top 10 top 15
defenses in the country if that's indeed going to happen.
Yep. So let's real quick on the
schedule can pom is projecting right now, Indiana to finish the
Season, 22 and 9, and 13 and 7. And, you know, it's when you
look at the actual numbers in can Palm, it's like they don't
necessarily match up because there's a difference between
individual game projections right and probabilities.
So if you have five straight games where you're projected to
win but you're like a 52 percent.
To win in each of them, you're probably going to be braided is
going 3 and 2, not 5 and 0 in those, but looking across like
the, the only games that can pom is listing as more likely than
not defeats our Arizona, which is actually a 50-50 game in the
eyes of Ken pom. And that's a neutral Court game
at Kansas or Indiana's, got a 35% chance of victory at Iowa,
where it's a 48 percent chance of victory at Michigan 48,
percent chance of Victory and at Purdue 48 percent chance of
victory. Hurry.
Now, the flip side of that is, there's a lot of games in that
50 to 55 range that Indiana is projected to win Xavier.
For instance, at Xavier, I you projected to win that game by by
a 55 percent margin, only a one-point, projected margin of
victory at Illinois, 52% at Michigan State, 51 percent.
So when you look at some of the other rating systems, going back
to torvik, toradex got the exact same projection 22 + 9, 13 and
7. With a slightly different set of
wins and losses. They've got, are you losing it
Xavier? They've got I you losing at
Michigan State but they've also got I you beating Arizona and
there's a couple of other games that are slightly different and
then the other one to note is, is Haslam s hasla?
Metrics that one? I don't, they, it's a similar
sort of thing where again, it's like, yes Indiana's probably
going to lose in the eyes of Haslam's rating system.
At Xavier, but they're expected to I think when they there's one
game that was like a surprise that they were planning on?
Well, yeah the the Michigan State game again so ultimately
22 and nine whatever the formation if Indiana's 22 and 9
and 13 and 7 in the conference. Are you looking at that and
saying wow that was a really successful season I feel happy
about the way that that played out.
I think so. I think the the unknown there is
where does 13 and nine slot you in the standings in the big tent
and I think it's probably going to slot you in, you know, the
top three or four and as long as that's the case I'm happy with
that. I think that's to me is I'm more
important where we finish in the Big Ten then what our final Big
Ten record is. I think if I have a hard time
seeing 13 and 7, putting you fourth fifth, sixth or seventh
in the Big Ten. So I'm going to say it's
probably of going to be a good year.
So yeah, overall I would take that I think that's a team
that's going to be in the top three in the Big Ten you're
going to have you know double protect in the Big Ten
Tournament. You're going to be in a spot
where you can play yourself into a protected seed in the NCAA
tournament. So yeah, I think that would be
that would be that would be good.
That'd be a good year now, the one, the one downside.
And again when you look at preseason projections, you don't
know how your opponents are necessarily going to do.
But you know, the it seems pretty clear from most of the
rating systems, the three worst teams in the conference in
Northwestern. Nebraska and Minnesota.
Those are the three teams that in Ken pom are.
They're the only three teams that are projected right now at
fewer than 10 wins in conference which is crazy to think about
you know so but you have to factor that into strength of
schedule and how everything fits in and unfortunately Indiana
only plays for total games against those three teams.
They do play Northwestern both home and away but they got a
travel to Minnesota and they have Nebraska at home.
And you know that's unfortunate because this is where the bat
the unbalanced schedule in the Big Ten is a real pain in the
ass because you love Indiana to be able to have a slightly
easier pathway where they get two additional games against
those teams. And, you know, there's going to
be other teams that they're playing against that have the
the ability to play those teams more, which is probably going to
lead to more victories. So, it's not an Apples to Apples
comparison, but I'm with you It's like if you're 13 and 7,
but you have a tougher strength of schedule and you finished
third in the conference in the regular season.
I mean, that's disappointing, because I think if everything
was equal, I like Indiana as the the slight favorite in the
conference, but since everything is not equal.
You don't necessarily get the benefits of having been the
quote-unquote best team in the conference if you play a tougher
schedule but as you said ultimately for IU, I think so
much of what this program needs is positioning.
NG to do well in the NCAA tournament that even if they
don't win the Big Ten if they're 13 and 7 and 22 and 9 and they
played the schedule that they play this year.
That is a huge step forward for the program and lays a nice
foundation for what. Hopefully comes next and that's
ultimately what this is about. Like I there's certain teams
that are clearly going to be in the mix for the national title.
I don't think Indiana is quite in that class, that they
certainly have peace. Is that if everything went right
and if they got shooting that they have not had in seven or
eight years. Yeah, it could happen but that
seems unlikely but I do think this is a sweet 16 caliber team
may be slightly better than that.
If Indiana is able to put everything together and play
well throughout the course of the Season that will ultimately
be what dictates that, you know, I guess for you.
You know, is there, is there a red line where it's like this
this level of accomplishment or this?
Full of performance is not what I would consider to be
acceptable. Like, is there a record where
you're like? I can't believe after all of
this hope. This is where we ended up.
It's a great question again for me, it's not a record but it's
going to be kind of a standing per se and that is I honestly
think anything below. I mean Red Line.
I'll say anything below fifth in the conference, but I would
honestly Edge more toward fourth.
I think you need to finish in the top four in the Big Ten that
this year because you know, quietly to I don't want to get
too big picture. But when you look at it, you
know, we're kind of building to this year because next year, you
know, race, Saint Xavier Johnson, Miller copper.
Not going to be here. Xavier Trace Jackson Davis is
probably not going to be here, you know, you're going to have a
bit of a reset. You don't have any five stars
lined up for coming in next year.
So there's next year might be a little bit of a Down year when I
mean, we'll see how the Freshman go, but you're definitely losing
a lot after this season. So it would be to me a
disappointment, if this kind of built up and then you get to a
point where you don't even finish in the top four in the
Big Ten for the end. AAA I agree with you.
I think a sweet 16 is something that I would aspire to, you
know, this is I've you can't just say we got to make sweet 16
because there's a lot of factors at play there.
You know, what does the seating look like?
What see do you get? You know, what path do you get?
I think you know things happen in the tournament that can be
tough but to me it's like I was you I think that you need to be
in a position where you're giving yourself a good and
realistic shot to get to the Sweet 16.
And so to me that means again a fourth place finish in the Big
Ten and then Probably being somewhere in the three, four,
five, six, seed, in the NCAA tournament, but my red line is
probably at the five seats. So, being 345 see in the, in
the, in the NCAA tournament to me, you're giving yourself.
You have a shot to make sweet 16 and then, let's see how we do to
get there. Let's not get our doors blown
off in the first game in the second game.
If it's a really close game in that 45 game, okay, you know,
it's like that's not what I wanted to end, but things
sometimes happen. You might not have your best
game, but that's Of its, I don't really have like, it has to be
this or nothing else. Like, that's kind of where I'm
at, but I agree with you. I think that, you know, I'd be
very disappointed if this team made the tournament as a, you
know, eight, nine, ten 11 seed, then it's like they're
struggling to get to the Sweet 16 because they have to play you
know Kentucky or a really tough UNC team or Kansas.
It's like all right. Well that's not what this was
building up to on the flip side I do think on a positive note,
if all the pieces come together, I could see this being see.
Similar to that, you know, 2012 IU team, where I still will go
to my grave thinking. If they don't play Kentucky in
the sweet 16 that team probably goes to the final four, like
they were the second best team in the tournament that year.
They just had a really bad draw and that seemed kind of came out
of nowhere and suddenly, it's like, we're playing for a
legitimate. I know we lost the sweet 16 but
it's like we're playing the national champion toe-to-toe in
the tournament. And I do think if things break,
right? And if the if the you know, the
instantly tournament breaks, right?
And we play We think you all these pieces come out on the
positive, I see a world where this team could be getting shot
in the final four. Like, I just, I do see that as a
possibility, so I think that's the upside.
But yeah, my ending red line is are the things that I laid out.
What about for you? Yeah, I know, I feel kind of the
same. I think, ultimately, I use
ceiling is, it's going to be entirely dictated by how well,
they shoot the ball from outside obvious.
Such a huge part of the game and it's just a part of the game
that IU basketball is just essentially, Not paid attention
to advocated. Advocated is exactly the word I
couldn't think it. Thank you.
They've advocated their responsibilities for shooting
three-point shots and to some degree, it makes last year's
season a great accomplishment given that they did it despite
being a, you know like a very mediocre three-point shooting
team nationally so look. Can you fix that?
Obviously, that's why I read the percentage is off.
You can fix it if you focus on. There's nothing special in the
water in Bloomington that says, you cannot shoot threes.
You have to, you have to set up your offense in a way that makes
it work. And look, I think there's a lot
of factors in play right now about what Indiana could be the
big thing, ultimately, and this is where I hope between the
Purdue win last year at home. The fact they almost beat Purdue
on the road last year at the tail end of the season.
And the way that they played in the Big Ten Tournament, the
biggest other element other than outside shooting that's going to
affect the ceiling of this team is, do they acquire a sense of
superiority, not arrogance. But do they start to actually
consider themselves a confident basketball team that can go out
and beat anybody on any given night?
You know, Mike Leach last night, they had a great quote,
Mississippi State, got blown out by Alabama.
It was something along the lines of, you know, We got to stop
being scared of players wearing the Alabama uniform.
You know, if you want to scare our team, just put an Alabama
uniform that on that'll scare the hell out of them.
And that's kind of how I felt to some degree about IU basketball.
The last several years, and it felt like it was finally
starting to get shaken off a little bit.
Then it's not necessarily individual teams, but it's
moments, like, IU basketball, has been scared of the moment
for a long time and it's a consistency issue in terms of
being able to come out and play it.
A high level. Not just one night, you know,
not just at Michigan State or not, just, you know, here.
They're like, it has to be something where you come out
with a Swagger. That's what IU basketball when
it's been at its best has done and it's not just a bob Knight
thing. It was the same with Tom crane
like 12 13 16. Those teams played gradually a
16 it took a while but those teams play with a confidence
with a Swagger that You know, it gifted them points both
offensively and defensively because they were in positions
to do things and they felt like they could do it.
There was a belief there and that's been missing for a long
time and it started to come back a little bit last year.
And that's what's got me excited is that if they can take the
good moments from last year and build on top of those with more
good moments moving forward? You know, I mean they were they
were closed in several games last year they just didn't, they
didn't think did not. It had the confidence in
themselves, whether that was the Syracuse game, either of the
Wisconsin games, the Ohio, State game on the road, the Purdue
game on the road, the Michigan State game on the road was kind
of a separate situation. You know, that there's enough
there that if they can take the better moments and extrapolate
from that, that's going to put them in a position where they
can have the kind of season everybody wants.
And so that's I think Mike Woodson's two biggest challenges
make them shoot properly and well and Make them confident in
themselves and if that happens, I agree with you, the sky's the
limit and if it doesn't happen, I do worry.
You know, it's like you get to that fifth sixth, seventh range
of the Big Ten that's like wow this team really is still
suffering from one or both of those maladies and that I think
will be very disappointing if that's how it goes.
Yes. And I will say this to like the
if we're there, the concerning part is, as you mentioned the
Big Ten is going to be solid but it's not like the murderer's row
of a couple of Back where you have three teams in the top,
five of K-pop, top five or 10 of Ken Palma.
Give a lot of good teams but part of the reason that Indiana
is projected to win the Big Ten and it's coming in so well is
that we're returning a lot and a lot of other teams are losing
stuff. Like this is a bit of a for as
good as the Big Ten might be kind of as a average conference
like it's a bit of a Down year it's not as good as it was last
year and it's very rarely. Do you get the kind of the cycle
where you know what's frustrating?
Strating is we did win the Big Ten and you know 2013 we were
phenomenal but it's like God the Year we're good.
As somebody Michigan's Dynamite Lake Michigan State's always
Goods like whenever we've been good.
Unfortunately it seems like the Big Ten is also just turned into
like this just Dynamite conference and this feels like
one of the first times that the Big Ten is a little bit down and
were a little bit up and so it's like this is a time to make some
hay while the sun shines. You know, the other thing I'll
say, looking at the schedule is you have an ability here to
really start Nicely. I said it's a couple times, you
know, I think that Xavier game is key, because if you can win
that, you're going to go into that North Carolina game for 50,
six in a row. And you're going to be probably
ranked at least 12 or maybe in the top 10 depending on other
people were losing, North Carolina will be somewhere in
the top five, but that's going to be an electric atmosphere,
but even if you lose that, you could go into the Arizona game
being 81, you know, and you just, you can start the season
off. With a very nice Bank of wins.
You can kind of get to almost 10 or 11 wins for the Big 10
starts. And that's a really really nice
place to be last thing. I'll say it is funny when you
look at Ken Pon browser on there, you know it has the
projected win as you were mentioning the percent.
You know we're 55 percent chance of winning Xavier, a lot of the
games against like, you know, Little Rock is 99.
I love that. We're playing Jackson State,
like Ken Palm. Has to be like, no, it's 99.6.
It's like that's how bad Jackson state is.
Just the, the only The only time we got to start putting decimals
in like it's more than 99. Like that's just how bad they
are. But anyway, no, I'm with you on
all that. Look.
Ultimately, I said, the last thing I'll say on this and we'll
talk more and we're going to have some other folks, some
guests on from around the IU media verse to talk about IU
basketball. But I'm not going to get too.
I'm not too wrapped up in expectations.
I'm really not. I think this team's got a
potentially very high ceiling and I'm excited about that.
But I'm also I'm not sitting here like And I know it's
unfair, because I ask you this question, but I'm not sitting
here saying, well, they must do this, or they must do that in
the seasons of disappointment. I am really do, a large degree
feeling like I am. I'm quietly confident that this
team is going to play. Well, I'm not going to get
wrapped up in whether or not I you beat Xavier or beats North
Carolina or beats Arizona, Arkansas, like it would suck if
they lost all of those games. But I really do think that This
is a team that is a work in progress.
It's going to have to be a work in progress.
And what I care about ultimately with IU basketball is that they
play well at the end of the season not that they play well,
at the beginning or in the middle of the Season, you go,
you know, look at the tournament last year.
You know you look at the teams that made the elite eight that,
you know, Miami and North Carolina.
And you know, these teams that were not good.
Regular season teams, we're in danger of, not making the
tournament but we look back on those teams now in a row.
Wow, those were, how could you not look at those as being
successful seasons for those teams at the end of the day
because they played well when it mattered and that is ultimately
the attitude. I'm taking about this team.
If they lose two or three or even all four of those games, I
just rattled off in the non-conference.
I'll be disappointed. I'll be like wow they're a lot
further away from where they need to be that I would like to
see but keep in mind the last team that people really like for
IU basketball started off by losing a bunch of games early.
And that they shouldn't have lost that was at 2016 team.
They lost her Wake Forest they lost to UNLV.
They got obliterated by Duke and and they really didn't play a
meaningfully good game in on winning, good game against a
good team and they could argue until like Wisconsin at the
beginning of January of that 2016 season and everybody looks
back on that team is like wow, they won the Big Ten, they made
the sweet 16 they beat Kentucky. We forget that it's not how they
started. It's ultimately what they became
and how they Hushed. And so, and to further, make
your point, the next year, 2017 is a team that beat Kansas and
beat North Carolina and the preseason and then ended up Tom
crean got fired as we lost the NIT so yummy.
It's to make your point even more.
Yes. Yeah, so anyway, that wraps it
up for me, any final. Thoughts from you before we wrap
up this podcast? No, I'm like, yo, I know you
made it. You made me pick my Hardline but
I'm very much in the same spot. You are.
I'm feeling quietly confident. I have Good Vibes on what the
Freshman might be. I want to see it in action, but
I'm I feel like this could be a fun, a fun year, a fun ride and
I'm not going. I would urge everybody to kind
of, you know, sit back and enjoy it and don't burden yourself or
the team with expectations and what I mean by that is like yes,
we need to have some level of things to Done.
But, you know, I don't want to start being.
I'm starting to hear this little.
Well, got to make a sweet 16. It's like look just part of the
fun of years. Like this is like we're we're
not expecting it. Like that's what was so tough in
2013 is like they come in. They're ranked number one in the
country. It's like all right well we got
to do it like and the we got to do it years or tough because
it's like when you lose the sweet 16 to Syracuse like that
suck, but that's what I mean, we all want to take in that last
year, had we gotten there the rise up?
Is sometimes more fun than the hey we're the best team and
we've got to cash it in now and this does feel very much like a
kind of rise up here where we can kind of come in and surprise
people, Allah 2012, Allah 2016 and I just, I think from where
I'm getting most people are kind of in the same boat we are,
which is good. I just hope we don't get too far
ahead and put too much expectations that we got to get
this done. Like just enjoy the ride but I I
think this could be a really fun team to watch because we have a
lot of guys we've seen over the years.
A lot of guys that we know kind of what we're going to get out
of them. You have really a generational
decade type player and Trace Jackson.
Davis, who could be getting close to some all-time records
that I you like there's some really cool things that could be
happening this year. So I'm I'm very optimistic and
excited for this year. So that's where I'm at.
That's a good way to leave it. Alright, well we'll talk more
about IU as they get started here pretty quickly.
I mean, it's its heart, it feels like October is just flown by
for me, Scott, I you probably feel the same.
Yeah, but first exhibition game is this Saturday at 3:00 p.m.
they play Marion, that's going to be on Big Ten.
Plus there's a big 10 plus sale right now, for those who haven't
seen it, I think it's like $49 for the rest of the year.
And that means you'll get both exhibition games and the opener,
which So the second exhibition game is next Thursday, November
3rd, that's against st. Francis, and then that first
game against Morehead, State is November, 7th, which is Monday
all those games will be on Big Ten plus yes, what?
Just one last thing for people who are out there, who enjoy
listening to Crimson cast first off, thank you, it's always
appreciated. But secondly, this is it just
because this is going to happen. Start getting really fast really
quick. You and I are both scheduled to
go to the Vegas game. The Arizona Game and Vegas.
I think we're both scheduled to go.
Yeah, scheduled like we were Called in by our bosses and
said, hey, you got, you gotta go to Vegas, guys?
Yeah, that's not weird. Yeah, so we both have yes but no
way. We're both planning on going to
the to Vegas for Arizona. I think we're both planning on
going to Kansas for that game. So just we're both will be
there. I think we're both you.
And I have talked, you know, offline.
We're going to schedule something.
So I'm just throwing that out there for people that, you know,
will try and have some kind of get together, live podcast,
don't know what it'll be, but we'll have something in Vegas
and hopefully something in Kansas as well.
My More of a get-together than a live podcast.
Was, you know. Yeah, but we'll figure something
out, but, yes, we'll do not like Hobbit have an iPhone hitting
record. Last time we did this, we ended
up at a Buffalo, Wild Wings in Brooklyn, and so it's, yes, yes.
Hey, we get the manager. Gave us a good deal.
Like that was actually pretty worked out pretty well.
I wonder if that guy realizes how unimportant we actually were
by, but he did that probably still is like, you know, we had
a big, big, big radio show from Bloomington and it is like now
the The like any way down also gave us like two bucks worth of
buffalo wings. Grip really wasn't like, we got
a huge deal either to Fair Point anyway.
All right, well we will be back with more later on this week and
also next week we'll be talking IU basketball, have some guests
on speak through that. I hope you folks have a
wonderful rest of the day Scott. Thank you.
We haven't done 2 plus h, where the podcasting in a day in a
while before, so it's nice. But anyway, thanks don't feel
apparel. Be sure to check out the rest of
the back home network or somebody called do the work and
several other shows and We'll be back soon.
We'll catch you folks on the flip side.
Bring back the Bison. So long, everybody.