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Morning folks. 
How we doing? 

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All is well here in Hoosier land
today, at least as far as 

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attitudes coming out of a win, I
think nothing else to talk 

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about. 
Indiana finishing off the season

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with a nice victory over 
Michigan State and they moved to

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10 and 10 in conference play and
end up with the sixth seed. 

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We're going to talk about that. 
We're going to talk about where 

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Indiana's at in the big scheme 
of things, and we're going to 

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talk about why Indiana is still 
not in the NCAA tournament 

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picture despite. 
Having a 10 and 10 record 

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overall in the Big 10, which is 
normally like an automatic, like

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please walk through the door, go
to the NCAA tournament, why is 

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that not happening? 
So we're going to talk about 

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that. 
We're going to talk a little bit

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about some of the other teams 
that Indiana's in proximity with

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to try to explain to everybody 
why the metrics don't like IU. 

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And I almost did a video on this
earlier in the year, which I'll 

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talk about in a minute, but 
ended up not. 

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Now's a good time to do it 
because I think now that the 

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team is playing better, it's 
kind of back on everybody's 

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mind. 
Before I get to that, just a 

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reminder first of all that we 
are here at Crimson Cast, part 

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of the back home network. 
You're probably watching this on

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one of the Back Home network 
YouTube streams, if not on 

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Twitter. 
And the Back Home network is 

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brought to you by home field 
apparel. 

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The. 
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designs and I'll tell you what 
it is. 

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Vintage Jersey Day. 
At home field apparel and if you

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haven't had a chance to look at 
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folks, it's pretty remarkable 
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I'm going to call up here you 
can see the. 

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E-mail You can see I clearly 
need to clear out my inbox a 

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little bit but you can see some 
of what they've got on sale. 5 

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vintage jerseys out today. 
There's a a 1990s Ish Syracuse 

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jersey. 
There's a Michigan State vintage

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Jersey. 
There's a Purdue vintage jersey,

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you've got an LSU one, and then 
you've got the Missouri jersey 

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which you'll probably recognize 
from the 80s. 

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All of those on sale today and 
it's across the board. 

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Been a great month if you're 
following along with home field 

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apparel, as they have had all 
kinds of amazing stuff available

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There you can use the code HOME 
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Get 15% off your first order. 
Go to homefieldapparel.com, sign

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up for the newsletter, order 
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media. 
You'll find all kinds of amazing

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goodies there on a regular 
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Again, home field apparel.com. 
Also just a reminder folks, we 

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are on sub stack 
crimsoncast.substack.com. 

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We do have Trent in the comments
wearing a home field, everything

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I got to say, I was at the game 
yesterday and the amount of home

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field gear in Assembly Hall 
always blows me away. 

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Just just a total. 
It's like a home field, home 

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game. 
Basically everybody wearing 

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something home field at at 
times. 

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Anyway, just a reminder on the 
sub stack, we are at the 

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crimsoncast.substack.com, please
go check it out. 

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There's a free subscription 
option, you get all of our 

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podcasts and and some of our 
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sent to you directly. 
And then we have a paid 

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subscription option which I 
think is pretty reasonable and 

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and not obligatory at all. 
If you'd like to support the 

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podcast, you're able to through 
that. 

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We would love to have you join 
with social media kind of 

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fracturing. 
It can be hard to constantly get

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episodes out to people, so this 
is an easy way to get those 

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episodes delivered right to your
inbox. 

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So again, 
crimsoncast.substack.com For 

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those of you who are watching 
along in person, this is 

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probably the best venue to watch
this particular show in. 

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I will put this up as an audio 
episode, but you may want to go 

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find and I'll put the link in 
the sub stack. 

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You may want to go find the live
video recording off of the Back 

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Home Network YouTube channel 
because I'm going to be using 

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screens to kind of walk through 
some of the things I'm talking 

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about here. 
So just keep that in mind. 

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And I've got several people in 
the chat and I I'm not going to 

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touch on Mike Woodson's comments
yesterday in this particular 

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show. 
We are going to talk about it 

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when Scott and I podcast again 
here soon, which might be today.

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So not trying to avoid talking 
about that. 

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I will be happy to address that 
and kind of talk through things 

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and would love to get people's 
overall commentary on it because

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I'm sure a lot of you have ideas
and thoughts on on how all that 

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went, but not going to talk 
about it in this particular 

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broadcast. 
Hopefully you can understand 

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that. 
So I appreciate the interest and

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we will talk about it soon. 
What we are going to talk about 

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today is Indiana's spot right 
now within the metrics and the 

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predictives and why those matter
and and why it's really why 

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Indiana's not in the NCAA 
tournament picture even on a 

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four-game winning streak and 
with a 10 and 10 record. 

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So first of all, again I'm going
to call some screens up and I'm 

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going to talk through this a 
little bit. 

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I want to show everybody, first 
of all the the Ken Palm page, 

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because I think that's a good 
place to start. 

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A lot of you. 
Are not necessarily unfamiliar 

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with Ken Palm, but a lot of you 
still I think are are struggling

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at times with how it works and 
and how it's utilized. 

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I'm going to zoom in here a 
little bit so you can see this. 

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If you're watching along on the 
screen, what you've got across 

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the board here is a bunch of 
numbers which look completely 

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hard to get into. 
But they all make some sense and

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I think it's important to 
understand. 

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By and large, what exactly 
you're looking at and what these

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metrics are calculating and how 
all these teams get ordered, 

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because it helps us to 
understand and explain why 

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Indiana's aren't very good. 
We're also going to talk about 

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the net, which I'm going to walk
you through as well, so that you

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can understand that I'm going to
try to keep this not boring, so 

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I'm going to move relatively 
quickly. 

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But if you have any questions, 
please put it in the chat. 

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I'll be happy to throw those up 
on the screen and answer those 

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as we can. 
So let's start with Who are the 

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best teams in college basketball
according to the computers and 

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why? 
We've talked a lot on this show 

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about this idea of offensive and
defensive efficiency. 

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And I'm going to give a quick 
overview of that. 

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Again, Offensive Efficiency is 
the number of points your team 

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scores over 100 possessions. 
The reason it's done like that 

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is it's a standardized number 
because the way the games work, 

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there's a real broad spectrum in
what A-team's total number of 

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possessions in a game are. 
You take a team like Virginia or

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a A-Team like Purdue last year 
who played mega slow, they may 

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be doing 5758 possessions. 
You take a fast team like North 

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Carolina, they may have like 
7374 possessions in a game. 

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How do you compare those two 
teams? 

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You can't use like points per 
game. 

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Because even though Wisconsin or
Virginia or whoever may be 

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scoring a lot fewer points per 
game, it doesn't mean they're 

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automatically going to lose to 
North Carolina just because 

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they're scoring more, right? 
So instead, what you get is this

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standardized number where we 
take the total number of points 

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you're scoring over 100 
possessions and use that to 

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calculate how efficiently you're
scoring. 

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Scoring efficiency is an 
important thing to keep in mind 

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because ultimately the goal 
going down the floor. 

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Is this whole idea of you want 
to get as many points as 

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possible for every trip that you
make? 

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If you get 0 points on a 
possession, that's clearly bad. 

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If you get one point on that 
possession, maybe you hit one 

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out of two free throws. 
That's that's about average. 

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Like you. 
Know the the minimum you really 

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want to have is one point per 
possession, or something 

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slightly more than that, but 
most of the time you're going to

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be scoring 2 points or three 
points, very rarely 4 points per

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possession. 
And so, if you are consistently 

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able to score points when you go
down the floor, more often than 

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not your offensive efficiency is
going to be higher. 

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Your defensive efficiency is the
exact opposite of that. 

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Your defensive efficiency is how
many points your opponents score

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every time they go down the 
floor. 

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So whereas your goal is to score
as many points as possible, your

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goal is also to keep the other 
team for scoring points. 

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Very basic stuff. 
But again taking that out over 

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100 possessions and averaging 
it, that is how you figure out 

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how overall efficient a team is 
on offense or on defense. 

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We talk a lot about adjusted 
offensive and defensive 

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efficiency and that's what you 
see in this Ken Palm stat. 

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So ADJO&ADJD what those 
represent are your. 

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Efficiency numbers filtered 
through how good or bad your 

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opponent happens to be. 
So if you score 1.2 points per 

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possession against one of the 
worst defensive teams in the 

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country, you're not going to get
as much credit as if you score 

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1.2 points per game against a 
team that's like fifth in the 

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country defensively. 
And vice versa. 

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If you hold a team that scores 
very efficiently to an 

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inefficient scoring number, 
that's going to be better for 

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your Adjusted Defensive. 
Efficiency number. 

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So what it's trying to do is 
take into account how teams 

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play. 
And make it so that it's not 

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just a matter of, oh, we're 
going to run the score up on 

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this team or that team, but 
there are boundaries within that

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and that's that's where it gets 
a little tricky for Indiana 

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elsewhere on this page. 
Just to note, you'll know that 

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there's an adjusted tempo number
here and that is to tell people 

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how quick or how slow a team 
plays. 

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What's interesting this year, I 
think is that obviously the top 

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two teams in the country are 
playing really slow. 

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There's only 300 and 57 teams in
Division One. 

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Houston is one of the slowest 
teams in the country. 

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They're playing at 63.6 
possessions per game, adjusted. 

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Connecticut's not much faster. 
Purdue is actually significantly

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faster. 
They're about four possessions 

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faster than Houston is. 
But then you've got a bunch of 

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teams that play really fast that
are in this, this top 10. 

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Auburn, Tennessee, Arizona, 
North Carolina, Illinois all in 

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the top 100. 
Where that comes into play is, 

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you know, to a large degree. 
What you find is that generally 

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slower paced teams do better in 
these adjusted efficiency 

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numbers because if you are 
efficient over a smaller number 

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of possessions, it tends to 
carry better across the data 

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set. 
But it's not the end all be all 

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as you. 
Can see here and that's what 

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makes teams like Auburn and 
Tennessee and Arizona really 

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interesting because they are 
efficient despite playing at a 

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very quick pace. 
The the way that these get 

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ordered is adjusted efficiency 
margin and all that is, is you 

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take the bigger number and the 
smaller number and you subtract 

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1 from the other and if it's a 
so in this case Houston, if you 

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take 120.9 which is their 
adjusted offensive efficiency 

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and 88 which is their adjusted 
defensive efficiency you get 

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32.89. 
Obviously there's some rounding 

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involved there. 
That's the number that. 

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Ken Palm or Torvik or the net 
looks at and says that's the 

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best team in the country because
it has the highest adjusted 

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efficiency margin. 
And again, it it kind of, you 

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know, normally what you find 
here is you'll find teams that 

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have a higher offensive 
efficiency and a lower defensive

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efficiency. 
But there's a sliding scale like

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if you look at this like Houston
is not as efficient offensively 

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as Purdue. 
Purdue's actually the most 

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efficient offense in the 
country. 

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They they score the most points 
per possession adjusted every 

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game. 
But what you'll see here is that

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Houston is like hyper good 
defensively. 

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Like by far they are the best 
defensive efficiency team. 

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The only the next closest one is
Iowa State. 

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So you take those two numbers 
and you kind of try to 

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extrapolate from them who does 
what. 

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Well, Illinois is a great 
example of a team that kind of 

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reminds me of, say, Indiana in 
the 2011, 2012 season. 

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That season with the watch shot 
season where they went to the 

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Sweet 16, That was one of the 
most efficient offensive teams 

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in the country. 
But they weren't very good on 

228
00:12:15,600 --> 00:12:18,200
defense, relatively speaking, to
the other top contenders, 

229
00:12:18,240 --> 00:12:21,680
Illinois, only 73rd in the 
country in defensive efficiency.

230
00:12:22,800 --> 00:12:25,960
The rest of these teams are are 
right up there like both numbers

231
00:12:25,960 --> 00:12:29,720
are in the top 30. 
And generally speaking, teams 

232
00:12:29,720 --> 00:12:32,480
that are going to go the 
furthest in the NCAA tournament 

233
00:12:32,480 --> 00:12:34,240
tend to be. 
Teams that are really good in 

234
00:12:34,240 --> 00:12:38,440
both of those numbers tend to be
like top 25, at least in both of

235
00:12:38,440 --> 00:12:42,720
those numbers. 
So A-Team like Alabama. 

236
00:12:43,480 --> 00:12:45,680
Great offense and really bad 
defense. 

237
00:12:45,680 --> 00:12:48,800
I wouldn't expect them to do a 
whole lot deep in the NCAA 

238
00:12:48,800 --> 00:12:51,920
tournament this year. 
But a team like, say, Auburn, 

239
00:12:52,080 --> 00:12:55,640
who's really good in both of 
those numbers, I think there's a

240
00:12:55,640 --> 00:12:57,880
real chance that they could do 
something big, you know, 

241
00:12:57,880 --> 00:12:59,720
provided that the bracket works 
out. 

242
00:12:59,880 --> 00:13:03,560
Anyway, those are all of how the
numbers work there. 

243
00:13:03,560 --> 00:13:06,160
Let me show you Indiana, because
the problem with Indiana is 

244
00:13:06,160 --> 00:13:07,560
obviously is they're way down 
here. 

245
00:13:07,840 --> 00:13:10,720
They're they're 86 and that's 
gone up lately. 

246
00:13:10,720 --> 00:13:12,400
I'm going to take you inside 
their page. 

247
00:13:12,960 --> 00:13:17,160
So we can kind of look at why 
Indiana is so low. 

248
00:13:18,280 --> 00:13:21,240
First of all, you can kind of 
track where Indiana's Pomeroy 

249
00:13:21,240 --> 00:13:23,480
numbers have gone. 
Indiana started the season. 

250
00:13:23,480 --> 00:13:25,480
I think it's important to 
remember like the projections 

251
00:13:25,480 --> 00:13:30,440
for IU based upon who was coming
back and the projections based 

252
00:13:30,440 --> 00:13:32,880
upon the new. 
Players that were on the floor 

253
00:13:32,880 --> 00:13:37,680
for Indiana The The projection 
for Indiana was 50th in the 

254
00:13:37,680 --> 00:13:41,400
country. 
That didn't last very long and 

255
00:13:41,400 --> 00:13:44,960
you can see like very quickly, 
you know, they they win against 

256
00:13:45,120 --> 00:13:48,800
Florida Gulf Coast by 6 and they
dropped three points. 

257
00:13:48,800 --> 00:13:51,440
They had that really bad game 
against Army, they dropped eight

258
00:13:51,440 --> 00:13:52,880
points. 
They had the game against Wright

259
00:13:52,880 --> 00:13:58,240
State, they dropped 12 spots. 
And that kind of set them into 

260
00:13:58,240 --> 00:14:01,760
this, this phase that lasted 
right up until the beginning of 

261
00:14:01,760 --> 00:14:04,280
the bulk of Big 10 season where 
they were kind of in that range 

262
00:14:04,280 --> 00:14:08,040
between the 70s and the 80s. 
And I'm going to come back to 

263
00:14:08,040 --> 00:14:09,560
why. 
And then you can see in the Big 

264
00:14:09,560 --> 00:14:12,400
10, the number dropped through 
the floor for a while. 

265
00:14:12,920 --> 00:14:15,240
You know, they lose that 
Nebraska game and now they're in

266
00:14:15,240 --> 00:14:17,480
the 90s. 
And it is literally taking them 

267
00:14:17,480 --> 00:14:20,680
all the way through the rest of 
the Big 10 season with the one 

268
00:14:20,680 --> 00:14:26,000
exception of that after the Iowa
win to get completely out of the

269
00:14:26,000 --> 00:14:29,320
90s and back into the 80s. 
So they just haven't been a very

270
00:14:29,320 --> 00:14:31,560
impressive team. 
Now the big question is why? 

271
00:14:31,560 --> 00:14:34,160
And I saw some comments today 
from people like it doesn't make

272
00:14:34,160 --> 00:14:39,240
any sense that Indiana is behind
Maryland in Ken Palm or in the 

273
00:14:39,240 --> 00:14:41,320
net when they beat Maryland 
twice. 

274
00:14:41,320 --> 00:14:59,360
Why doesn't head to 
And the problem that you have 

275
00:14:59,360 --> 00:15:03,880
with Indiana is that in almost 
all of their non conference 

276
00:15:03,880 --> 00:15:07,240
games they underperformed their 
expectations. 

277
00:15:07,400 --> 00:15:09,680
So if we go back to like the 
Florida Gulf Coast game as an 

278
00:15:09,680 --> 00:15:13,800
example, I'm going to, I'm going
to walk you in here and kind of 

279
00:15:13,800 --> 00:15:15,160
see how to interpret all of 
this. 

280
00:15:15,160 --> 00:15:18,160
So if you look, go back and look
at the the original game score, 

281
00:15:18,440 --> 00:15:23,000
Indiana was about an 89.5% 
favorite to win this game. 

282
00:15:23,360 --> 00:15:27,440
And you know the the original 
state of this game in terms of 

283
00:15:27,440 --> 00:15:30,680
what was projected was 
essentially that Indiana was 

284
00:15:30,680 --> 00:15:32,320
going to win by a pretty 
significant margin. 

285
00:15:32,520 --> 00:15:35,720
They only end up winning by 6. 
So the computers look at that 

286
00:15:35,720 --> 00:15:38,120
and say, well, we, let's say 
that projection was 12 points. 

287
00:15:38,120 --> 00:15:42,400
I don't remember what it exactly
was in that game, but you know, 

288
00:15:42,400 --> 00:15:46,240
the 50th ranked team playing the
238th ranked team on their home 

289
00:15:46,240 --> 00:15:49,520
floor, it's like, oh, you should
probably beat that team by 12 

290
00:15:49,520 --> 00:15:51,560
points. 
Indiana only beats that team by 

291
00:15:51,560 --> 00:15:53,760
6 points. 
And it's like that's a problem 

292
00:15:54,800 --> 00:15:59,120
that that demonstrates that you 
weren't as efficient either 

293
00:15:59,120 --> 00:16:01,200
offensively or defensively or 
both. 

294
00:16:01,480 --> 00:16:04,760
And so as a result, the 
computers are going to say that 

295
00:16:04,760 --> 00:16:07,200
team's probably not as good as 
we thought that it was going to 

296
00:16:07,200 --> 00:16:09,600
be. 
The Army game was probably the 

297
00:16:09,600 --> 00:16:11,200
one that did the most initial 
damage. 

298
00:16:11,200 --> 00:16:13,760
Army, as you can see, is, is not
a good team. 

299
00:16:14,040 --> 00:16:16,560
This is a team that you know 
they're going to finish. 

300
00:16:16,600 --> 00:16:18,520
They finished ten and 22 on the 
season. 

301
00:16:18,880 --> 00:16:23,680
Their best win on the year was a
road win against Texas, San 

302
00:16:23,680 --> 00:16:27,160
Antonio. 
Two of their wins were against 

303
00:16:27,160 --> 00:16:30,520
SUNY Maritime and the US 
Merchant Marine, and neither of 

304
00:16:30,520 --> 00:16:33,440
those games counts in the 
standings. 

305
00:16:34,360 --> 00:16:40,200
So only beating Army by 8 when 
you probably should have beaten 

306
00:16:40,200 --> 00:16:43,440
them by 18 or 19 ends up 
creating a lot of problems for 

307
00:16:43,520 --> 00:16:45,240
your overall statistical 
profile. 

308
00:16:45,240 --> 00:16:48,160
Because again, it's looking at 
your team and it's saying why 

309
00:16:48,160 --> 00:16:51,520
didn't you perform as well as 
the statistics thought that you 

310
00:16:51,520 --> 00:16:53,160
would. 
That's all that it is. 

311
00:16:53,440 --> 00:16:57,800
There's no bias in these 
predictive statistics. 

312
00:16:57,800 --> 00:17:00,920
There's no bias in Ken Palm. 
There's no bias in in Torvik. 

313
00:17:00,920 --> 00:17:04,480
There's no bias in the net. 
It's not about what we hate your

314
00:17:04,480 --> 00:17:07,160
team, you know, and therefore 
we're going to give you a lower 

315
00:17:07,160 --> 00:17:08,359
number. 
That's not how this works. 

316
00:17:08,359 --> 00:17:11,640
It's it's simply a matter of 
here's what we thought you would

317
00:17:11,640 --> 00:17:16,520
do versus this opponent based 
upon where you're ranked and 

318
00:17:16,520 --> 00:17:20,640
based upon where they're ranked.
And if you exceed those 

319
00:17:20,640 --> 00:17:22,839
expectations, your number's 
going to go up. 

320
00:17:23,119 --> 00:17:26,920
And if you are worse than the 
expectations, your number's 

321
00:17:26,920 --> 00:17:29,320
going to go down. 
And that's essentially what 

322
00:17:29,320 --> 00:17:31,120
happened with Indiana for most 
of the season. 

323
00:17:31,200 --> 00:17:35,800
Even in their wins, in many 
cases they would not perform 2 

324
00:17:35,800 --> 00:17:37,720
expectations. 
The Morehead State game is a 

325
00:17:37,720 --> 00:17:39,520
great example of that. 
Like that was. 

326
00:17:40,160 --> 00:17:42,320
That was a game Indiana went 
into. 

327
00:17:42,480 --> 00:17:49,000
With a a pretty good overall 
#85.1% was their pre, their 

328
00:17:49,000 --> 00:17:52,640
pregame win expectancy, and yet 
they only won by a point, if 

329
00:17:52,640 --> 00:17:55,520
you'll recall that. 
In Indiana, in that game, if you

330
00:17:55,520 --> 00:17:58,600
go and look at the individual 
numbers, you can see that like 

331
00:17:58,600 --> 00:18:02,240
Indiana's points per game or 
points the points per possession

332
00:18:02,240 --> 00:18:06,720
in that game, one point O3, 
that's really bad, you know And 

333
00:18:06,920 --> 00:18:09,680
for Morehead State, for them to 
allow Morehead State to score 

334
00:18:09,680 --> 00:18:12,920
that many points, one point O1, 
almost exactly the same as 

335
00:18:12,920 --> 00:18:16,920
Indiana did, also not very good.
So you continue to do that 

336
00:18:16,920 --> 00:18:20,040
throughout the course of the 
season and what you end up with 

337
00:18:20,040 --> 00:18:23,000
is essentially a ranking of 
Indiana that places them at a 

338
00:18:23,000 --> 00:18:29,280
spot where they are around 100 
or as we see now like 86th in in

339
00:18:29,280 --> 00:18:32,600
Ken Palm, because they've just 
consistently underperformed 

340
00:18:32,600 --> 00:18:35,480
their own expectations based 
upon what the computers think 

341
00:18:35,480 --> 00:18:38,560
they should be doing. 
Now you can say, well, Galen, 

342
00:18:38,560 --> 00:18:41,400
what about teams that they've 
beaten here recently? 

343
00:18:41,400 --> 00:18:44,880
They just beat Michigan State. 
Michigan State was ranked 19th 

344
00:18:45,120 --> 00:18:47,200
in Ken Palm. 
You know why? 

345
00:18:47,320 --> 00:18:48,760
Why didn't Indiana get more 
credit? 

346
00:18:48,760 --> 00:18:51,280
Well, hey, they did. 
Indiana won that game and went 

347
00:18:51,280 --> 00:18:56,000
from 93rd in Ken Palm to 86. 
They jumped 7 spots which is 

348
00:18:56,000 --> 00:18:59,320
sizable and and when you look at
the the track of things you can 

349
00:18:59,320 --> 00:19:03,160
see there's very few moments 
when Indiana either gained or 

350
00:19:03,160 --> 00:19:05,960
lost that many spots. 
I mean we we can see them here. 

351
00:19:06,240 --> 00:19:08,240
The army game, they lost eight 
spots. 

352
00:19:08,800 --> 00:19:11,160
They lost 12 spots with the 
right state game. 

353
00:19:11,680 --> 00:19:14,040
There were a couple of moments 
where they jumped back up the 

354
00:19:14,080 --> 00:19:17,400
for instance, the the win 
against Harvard was actually a 

355
00:19:17,400 --> 00:19:20,480
pretty good one, a 13 point win,
a really high offensive 

356
00:19:20,480 --> 00:19:22,600
efficiency number that jumps 
them eight spots. 

357
00:19:23,240 --> 00:19:26,400
Losing at home to Penn State, 
they dropped from 89th going 

358
00:19:26,400 --> 00:19:30,560
into that game to 100th. 
That's the kind of jumps that 

359
00:19:30,560 --> 00:19:33,160
you'll see when you 
significantly over or under 

360
00:19:33,160 --> 00:19:35,280
perform. 
Indiana didn't significantly 

361
00:19:35,280 --> 00:19:38,320
over perform yesterday in that 
game, but they did over perform 

362
00:19:38,480 --> 00:19:42,800
to the point where they got some
credit in the net and in Kenpop.

363
00:19:43,080 --> 00:19:45,840
So I just, I put all that 
together because I think it's 

364
00:19:45,840 --> 00:19:47,680
important to understand and I'm 
actually going to call the 

365
00:19:47,680 --> 00:19:51,800
screen back up and and show you 
a team that maybe you're like 

366
00:19:51,800 --> 00:19:54,880
why is that team better in the 
net than or the OR in Kenpop, 

367
00:19:54,880 --> 00:19:57,440
sorry than Indiana is. 
So let me go to the Big 10 

368
00:19:57,440 --> 00:20:00,920
conference page. 
Let's pick Ohio State's probably

369
00:20:00,920 --> 00:20:03,800
the best example of this. 
Ohio State is one game behind 

370
00:20:03,800 --> 00:20:07,800
Indiana in Kenpop. 
They're 19 and 12:00 and 9:00 

371
00:20:07,800 --> 00:20:09,960
and 11:00. 
Indiana beat them twice, and yet

372
00:20:09,960 --> 00:20:15,240
Indiana's 86th in Kenpom and 
Ohio State's 49th in Kenpom. 

373
00:20:15,240 --> 00:20:17,240
How can that be? 
Well, let's look at Ohio State 

374
00:20:17,400 --> 00:20:19,480
and see what they've done over 
the course of the season. 

375
00:20:20,200 --> 00:20:22,960
And what you see here is, first 
of all, A-Team that's pretty 

376
00:20:22,960 --> 00:20:24,880
good offensively in terms of 
efficiency. 

377
00:20:24,880 --> 00:20:28,000
Over the course of the season, 
39th in the country, they have 

378
00:20:28,000 --> 00:20:31,160
an adjusted number of 115.9, 
which essentially means they 

379
00:20:31,160 --> 00:20:34,880
score 1.16 points every time 
they have a possession. 

380
00:20:35,120 --> 00:20:37,880
Their defense isn't great, but 
it's better than Indiana's. 

381
00:20:38,080 --> 00:20:41,080
They give up about a about a 
point per possession basically. 

382
00:20:41,640 --> 00:20:46,440
But you look through at what 
Ohio State's done and the reason

383
00:20:46,440 --> 00:20:50,680
why their number looks better 
than Indiana's despite having a 

384
00:20:50,680 --> 00:20:54,680
slightly worse record in the 
conference, is that Ohio State 

385
00:20:54,680 --> 00:20:58,400
as you can see has a ton of 
close losses. 

386
00:20:59,520 --> 00:21:02,240
So Indiana for instance, that, 
you know that was a that was a 

387
00:21:02,240 --> 00:21:07,640
six point loss that they had to 
Indiana, they had a two point 

388
00:21:07,640 --> 00:21:10,600
loss at at Iowa, they had a 
three-point loss at home versus 

389
00:21:10,600 --> 00:21:13,720
Indiana. 
They had a bunch of wins where 

390
00:21:13,720 --> 00:21:15,400
they won by a significant 
margin. 

391
00:21:15,720 --> 00:21:19,200
So yes, they, you know, they, 
they beat Alabama for instance, 

392
00:21:19,200 --> 00:21:21,560
that carried a lot of weight. 
They won 9281. 

393
00:21:21,560 --> 00:21:23,120
It's hard to believe that game 
actually happened. 

394
00:21:23,360 --> 00:21:26,480
They beat Santa Clara, who's a 
pretty good team by 30 points. 

395
00:21:26,800 --> 00:21:29,880
They beat Minnesota by 10. 
So you know, while they 

396
00:21:29,880 --> 00:21:33,120
certainly had some some losses, 
a lot of those losses didn't 

397
00:21:33,120 --> 00:21:35,400
look as bad according to the 
computers because they were 

398
00:21:35,400 --> 00:21:37,360
already expected to lose those 
games. 

399
00:21:37,600 --> 00:21:40,440
So for instance, then I'll use 
this Northwestern game as an 

400
00:21:40,440 --> 00:21:42,000
example. 
Probably the worst game that 

401
00:21:42,360 --> 00:21:46,600
that they played all year, 
Northwestern was already 

402
00:21:46,600 --> 00:21:50,000
projected to win the game. 
So, you know, even though Ohio 

403
00:21:50,000 --> 00:21:53,320
State lost by a huge amount, it 
wasn't that shocking to the 

404
00:21:53,320 --> 00:21:55,960
computers that they lost that 
game, but still that game 

405
00:21:55,960 --> 00:21:57,680
dropped them 11 points in Ken 
Pop. 

406
00:21:57,920 --> 00:22:00,680
If you look at the way that 
these numbers go, it really 

407
00:22:00,680 --> 00:22:05,360
tracks very closely to if you 
have consistent success and if 

408
00:22:05,360 --> 00:22:09,720
you're winning games big while 
simultaneously not losing games 

409
00:22:09,720 --> 00:22:12,000
big, you're probably going to 
see your number go up. 

410
00:22:12,440 --> 00:22:16,760
That's what teams like Ohio 
State and Maryland, Maryland's 

411
00:22:16,760 --> 00:22:19,600
probably the the most extreme 
case that we have in the Big 10 

412
00:22:19,600 --> 00:22:22,240
right now. 
Like Maryland, yeah, it's 15 and

413
00:22:22,240 --> 00:22:26,000
16 have a losing record. 
But the reason why their 

414
00:22:26,000 --> 00:22:29,080
efficiency numbers look so good 
and the reason why their Kenpon 

415
00:22:29,080 --> 00:22:32,800
numbers better than Indiana is 
they have a dynamic defense and 

416
00:22:32,800 --> 00:22:35,200
they run a slow tempo. 
So they've been able to keep a 

417
00:22:35,200 --> 00:22:38,560
lot of teams under their scoring
levels and that looks good to 

418
00:22:38,560 --> 00:22:41,160
the computers. 
Does that necessarily mean that 

419
00:22:41,160 --> 00:22:45,160
they're better than Indiana? 
No, But it means that according 

420
00:22:45,160 --> 00:22:48,280
to the way that we kind of 
standardize and analyze teams 

421
00:22:48,280 --> 00:22:52,040
across the country, they are 
better than Indiana on aggregate

422
00:22:52,040 --> 00:22:55,120
over the course of the season, 
even if they lost to Indiana 

423
00:22:55,120 --> 00:22:56,960
twice. 
And I know that's a hard context

424
00:22:57,280 --> 00:22:59,360
for people to get their heads 
wrapped around, but that's how 

425
00:22:59,360 --> 00:23:04,920
these things work. 
Tyler asked the question and IU 

426
00:23:04,920 --> 00:23:06,800
beaten the by games by 20 a 
game. 

427
00:23:06,800 --> 00:23:08,760
Where do you think they're at in
the metrics and subsequent 

428
00:23:08,760 --> 00:23:10,680
bubble? 
That's a good question, and I'm 

429
00:23:10,680 --> 00:23:13,560
going to kind of take a 
circuitous route to answer that 

430
00:23:13,560 --> 00:23:16,200
because I want to take a look at
the net rankings. 

431
00:23:16,640 --> 00:23:21,200
And you know, 'cause that is the
primary thing that the committee

432
00:23:21,200 --> 00:23:25,200
is looking at when it comes to 
choosing who they're going to 

433
00:23:25,200 --> 00:23:27,480
put in the NCAA tournament. 
So this. 

434
00:23:27,480 --> 00:23:30,840
Is the net rankings as they 
currently stand, let me zoom in 

435
00:23:30,840 --> 00:23:34,480
a little bit here so you can all
see, you can see they very 

436
00:23:34,480 --> 00:23:36,360
closely match what we have in 
Ken Palm. 

437
00:23:36,360 --> 00:23:39,080
Like if we if we flash back over
to well we can't flash over to 

438
00:23:39,080 --> 00:23:42,200
Ken Palm here. 
But if you look at Ken Palm, 

439
00:23:42,200 --> 00:23:45,840
it's almost the exact same in 
terms of the overall order like 

440
00:23:46,120 --> 00:23:48,440
you've got Houston, Purdue, 
Yukon, Arizona, Tennessee, 

441
00:23:48,440 --> 00:23:51,200
Auburn, North Carolina, Alabama,
That's your top eight in the net

442
00:23:51,680 --> 00:23:54,440
and it is Houston, Connecticut, 
Purdue, Auburn, Tennessee, 

443
00:23:54,440 --> 00:23:57,880
Arizona, Duke, North Carolina in
Ken Pop. 

444
00:23:57,960 --> 00:24:00,920
So outside of Alabama who's only
three spots below where they 

445
00:24:00,920 --> 00:24:06,880
are, it's very, very 
interesting, you know to watch 

446
00:24:06,880 --> 00:24:09,320
that that dynamic play out. 
There's some reasons why those 

447
00:24:09,320 --> 00:24:12,520
two things factor in. 
What does the net exactly do? 

448
00:24:12,840 --> 00:24:15,320
So if you look at the net and 
and what it. 

449
00:24:15,960 --> 00:24:19,480
Provides. 
There's actually a nice and I 

450
00:24:19,480 --> 00:24:23,240
will put this in the in the 
video in the the sub stack 

451
00:24:23,240 --> 00:24:28,120
e-mail that I send out. 
What gets collected in the net? 

452
00:24:28,120 --> 00:24:29,800
Like how does the net get 
calculated? 

453
00:24:29,800 --> 00:24:36,160
So basically what they do is the
the factors for the net. 

454
00:24:36,160 --> 00:24:40,120
Right now after they revamped 
the formula, there's the Team 

455
00:24:40,120 --> 00:24:43,200
Value Index, which is a results 
based feature that rewards teams

456
00:24:43,200 --> 00:24:46,440
for beating quality opponents, 
particularly away from home, as 

457
00:24:46,440 --> 00:24:48,760
well as adjusted net Efficiency 
rating. 

458
00:24:48,760 --> 00:24:51,920
So that basically takes a 
calculation like what Kenpalm 

459
00:24:51,920 --> 00:24:54,880
does, where it looks at your 
adjusted net efficiency, again, 

460
00:24:55,120 --> 00:24:58,000
how many points you're allowing,
how many points you're scoring. 

461
00:24:58,280 --> 00:25:00,640
It jams those things together. 
That's your Net Efficiency 

462
00:25:00,640 --> 00:25:03,400
rating. 
But then, beating quality 

463
00:25:03,400 --> 00:25:07,280
opponents, particularly away 
from home, is rewarded more than

464
00:25:07,280 --> 00:25:10,360
just winning games just in 
general, like against weak 

465
00:25:10,360 --> 00:25:12,960
opponents or doing most of your 
winning at home. 

466
00:25:13,240 --> 00:25:17,040
The NCAA really puts a premium 
on winning games away from home.

467
00:25:17,560 --> 00:25:21,360
It gives you more credit for 
winning in a true Rd. game than 

468
00:25:21,360 --> 00:25:24,520
it does for winning in a neutral
site game than it does for 

469
00:25:24,520 --> 00:25:27,480
winning in a game that you're 
playing on your home arena. 

470
00:25:29,800 --> 00:25:33,160
So if you go through and look at
the net explanation, adjusted 

471
00:25:33,160 --> 00:25:35,720
efficiency is a team's net 
efficiency adjusted for strength

472
00:25:35,720 --> 00:25:38,880
of opponent and location across 
all games played, which we just 

473
00:25:38,880 --> 00:25:41,200
described. 
So basically that's what the net

474
00:25:41,200 --> 00:25:44,080
calculates. 
It is like Ken Palm, but it's 

475
00:25:44,080 --> 00:25:45,880
got some extra factors thrown 
in. 

476
00:25:46,720 --> 00:25:49,920
So if we go back and look at 
that net screen again, what 

477
00:25:49,920 --> 00:25:54,600
we'll find, oh, I don't want to 
load a video, hit the wrong 

478
00:25:54,600 --> 00:25:56,920
button there, there we go. 
So if we go back and look at the

479
00:25:56,920 --> 00:26:03,000
net rankings, what we see again 
is teams that have generally had

480
00:26:03,000 --> 00:26:05,000
high efficiency ratings 
throughout the course of the 

481
00:26:05,000 --> 00:26:08,400
year, teams that have played 
pretty well on the road and or 

482
00:26:08,400 --> 00:26:11,960
on neutral sites and teams that 
have performed pretty well 

483
00:26:12,120 --> 00:26:14,320
against teams in what's called 
quad one. 

484
00:26:14,960 --> 00:26:16,960
These are all kind of 
complicated measures, but 

485
00:26:16,960 --> 00:26:22,480
essentially quad 1AA win in quad
one means that you either beat a

486
00:26:22,520 --> 00:26:26,400
top 25 team at home, a top 50 
team on a neutral site or a top 

487
00:26:26,400 --> 00:26:31,480
75 team on the road. 
So you get more credit for 

488
00:26:31,480 --> 00:26:34,600
beating worse teams if you're 
playing away from home than you 

489
00:26:34,600 --> 00:26:36,200
do if you're playing on your 
home floor. 

490
00:26:36,200 --> 00:26:39,240
And the reason for that is it's 
hard to win on the road. 

491
00:26:40,120 --> 00:26:42,880
You know, I mean, obviously 
Indiana's seen that this year. 

492
00:26:42,880 --> 00:26:45,760
A lot of other teams see that. 
You know, we saw Kansas 

493
00:26:45,760 --> 00:26:47,200
yesterday, who's a pretty good 
team. 

494
00:26:47,200 --> 00:26:50,360
They're they're not, you know, 
top 20 or top ten necessarily in

495
00:26:50,360 --> 00:26:52,680
the net. 
But they got smashed by Houston 

496
00:26:52,960 --> 00:26:55,640
in that game. 
In Houston, it's hard to win on 

497
00:26:55,640 --> 00:26:57,560
the road. 
So the NCAA has tried to factor 

498
00:26:57,560 --> 00:26:59,040
that into their selection 
process. 

499
00:26:59,520 --> 00:27:02,040
If you go down and look, you see
Indiana State. 

500
00:27:02,040 --> 00:27:05,720
Indiana State's 29th in the net 
after that loss that they had 

501
00:27:05,720 --> 00:27:08,200
yesterday. 
They keep scrolling, keep 

502
00:27:08,200 --> 00:27:09,400
scrolling. 
Where's Indiana? 

503
00:27:09,400 --> 00:27:13,160
Where's Indiana? 
Indiana's 93rd now they went up 

504
00:27:13,200 --> 00:27:16,680
one or four spots. 
Sorry, thanks to that win 

505
00:27:16,680 --> 00:27:18,880
against Michigan State. 
But if you look at Indiana's 

506
00:27:18,880 --> 00:27:23,680
overall net components, you can 
kind of extrapolate them both 

507
00:27:23,680 --> 00:27:26,080
from what's here and then also 
from looking at Ken Pond, 

508
00:27:26,080 --> 00:27:28,600
because it's a very similar kind
of calculus. 

509
00:27:28,840 --> 00:27:33,120
So you can see Indiana 18 and 13
overall, that's not great. 

510
00:27:33,120 --> 00:27:36,640
But whatever, four and six on 
the road, not good, one and two 

511
00:27:36,640 --> 00:27:40,560
in neutral sites, not good 
either 13 and five at home. 

512
00:27:40,720 --> 00:27:42,560
It really depends on who you're 
playing. 

513
00:27:43,080 --> 00:27:46,680
And then against the quad one 
teams that I described 3 and 

514
00:27:46,680 --> 00:27:49,880
eight, five and four against 
Quad 2, four and one against 

515
00:27:49,880 --> 00:27:54,440
Quad 3. 
So you combine that record which

516
00:27:54,440 --> 00:27:58,200
is kind of that's what comprises
your team value index with what 

517
00:27:58,200 --> 00:28:01,880
you see in Kenpom and what you 
get is this overall, you know, 

518
00:28:01,880 --> 00:28:04,480
evaluation. 
Now someone brings up that 

519
00:28:05,120 --> 00:28:07,280
Indiana's a bit higher in Bart 
Torvik. 

520
00:28:07,280 --> 00:28:11,440
So that is true And and what? 
There's some differences between

521
00:28:11,440 --> 00:28:14,920
Torvik and Kenpom and I don't 
have the bandwidth to be able 

522
00:28:14,920 --> 00:28:17,160
to. 
Adequately describe all of those

523
00:28:17,440 --> 00:28:20,080
but. 
It is worth noting that the way 

524
00:28:20,080 --> 00:28:23,280
that Torvik calculates these 
things, it's a little bit 

525
00:28:23,280 --> 00:28:27,000
different than how Pomeroy does.
And yes, Indiana is marginally 

526
00:28:27,000 --> 00:28:28,320
better. 
You can see them right there, 

527
00:28:28,320 --> 00:28:32,880
They're in 78th, right behind 
Minnesota, who they swept this 

528
00:28:32,880 --> 00:28:34,640
year. 
Which again shows you that even 

529
00:28:34,640 --> 00:28:38,120
if you change the calculus 
sometimes, you'll still run into

530
00:28:38,120 --> 00:28:40,400
the same sorts of problems if 
you're a team that just hasn't 

531
00:28:40,400 --> 00:28:42,600
performed very well according to
expectations. 

532
00:28:43,080 --> 00:28:47,440
So there's no grand conspiracy 
among the computers against 

533
00:28:47,440 --> 00:28:49,880
Indiana. 
What you're seeing even in 

534
00:28:49,880 --> 00:28:54,200
Torvick, which is a relatively 
kind metric for Indiana, largely

535
00:28:54,200 --> 00:28:56,720
because it likes the way 
Indiana's been playing defense a

536
00:28:56,720 --> 00:28:58,760
lot more lately and and they 
have been playing defense 

537
00:28:58,760 --> 00:29:01,360
better. 
What you're getting is simply a 

538
00:29:01,360 --> 00:29:04,680
reaction to how Indiana's been 
playing relative to what the 

539
00:29:04,680 --> 00:29:07,520
computers thought that they 
should have been doing given 

540
00:29:07,520 --> 00:29:10,600
their offensive and defensive 
efficiency and given who they 

541
00:29:10,600 --> 00:29:13,360
play. 
If you look at the overall, and 

542
00:29:13,360 --> 00:29:15,360
I'm going to go back to that 
question, I'm going to pop it 

543
00:29:15,360 --> 00:29:19,680
back up that Tyler put up here. 
Tyler asked like if I you had 

544
00:29:19,680 --> 00:29:21,960
beaten by games. 
And by the way, a by game, for 

545
00:29:21,960 --> 00:29:23,600
those of you who don't know is 
where you bring a lesser 

546
00:29:23,600 --> 00:29:26,560
opponent in and you have to hand
them money in order to play the 

547
00:29:26,560 --> 00:29:29,680
game. 
So like Florida Gulf Coast or or

548
00:29:29,680 --> 00:29:33,120
Army, like they got a nice big 
check from the IU athletic 

549
00:29:33,120 --> 00:29:35,160
department to come and play that
game. 

550
00:29:35,600 --> 00:29:38,160
Those games happen all over the 
place, particularly among power 

551
00:29:38,160 --> 00:29:40,240
conference teams. 
Those are always called by 

552
00:29:40,240 --> 00:29:42,320
games. 
So if Indiana blows out their by

553
00:29:42,320 --> 00:29:45,360
game opponents, are they in the 
bubble conversation? 

554
00:29:45,560 --> 00:29:48,640
Let's take a look at Indiana's 
overall schedule so that I can 

555
00:29:48,640 --> 00:29:50,400
effectively answer that 
question. 

556
00:29:51,600 --> 00:29:53,800
Let's see here. 
There we go. 

557
00:29:53,800 --> 00:29:54,920
So. 
Let's go back to Indiana's Ken 

558
00:29:54,920 --> 00:29:57,480
Pompage. 
So where are the problems for 

559
00:29:57,480 --> 00:30:00,760
Indiana? 
The the biggest problem in terms

560
00:30:00,760 --> 00:30:04,680
of their net or and their 
overall predictive rankings is 

561
00:30:04,680 --> 00:30:08,440
is what was alluded to by Tyler 
in that question is that they 

562
00:30:08,440 --> 00:30:12,640
really didn't dissect any of 
their non conference opponents. 

563
00:30:13,360 --> 00:30:15,920
You know if you look down the 
list, a six point win against 

564
00:30:15,920 --> 00:30:20,840
Florida Gulf Coast who finished 
238th against Army. 

565
00:30:21,200 --> 00:30:23,800
We talked about that already. 
Only win by 8 armies 300 and 

566
00:30:23,800 --> 00:30:26,760
45th Wright State. 
That game ends up looking worse 

567
00:30:26,760 --> 00:30:29,440
because of the lack of a key 
player for Wright State in that 

568
00:30:29,440 --> 00:30:30,560
game. 
So Indiana probably should have 

569
00:30:30,560 --> 00:30:34,000
won it by more and so on even 
down in the three games at the 

570
00:30:34,040 --> 00:30:38,160
end of the of 2023. 
A one point win against Morehead

571
00:30:38,160 --> 00:30:42,200
State and then North North 
Alabama was one of the few games

572
00:30:42,200 --> 00:30:44,240
where they kind of over 
performed expectations, just 

573
00:30:44,240 --> 00:30:45,640
barely. 
But then you go back to that 

574
00:30:45,640 --> 00:30:48,320
Kennesaw State game, they 
underperformed expectations, 

575
00:30:48,400 --> 00:30:51,040
which is why they dropped there.
So that's one of the things 

576
00:30:51,040 --> 00:30:53,640
that's hurting them. 
If they had beaten all those 

577
00:30:53,640 --> 00:30:57,280
teams by 25 or 30, yes, their 
number would be better. 

578
00:30:57,640 --> 00:31:00,720
Would they be in the 
conversation for the NCAA 

579
00:31:00,720 --> 00:31:03,320
tournament? 
Probably not. 

580
00:31:03,600 --> 00:31:06,000
So why is that? 
Because if you look at who 

581
00:31:06,000 --> 00:31:09,200
Indiana has beaten and where 
they've beaten them, they really

582
00:31:09,200 --> 00:31:13,320
don't have a lot of impressive 
wins. 

583
00:31:13,680 --> 00:31:15,720
They lose to Connecticut on a 
neutral floor. 

584
00:31:15,720 --> 00:31:17,480
That's fine. 
I mean you're going to lose some

585
00:31:17,480 --> 00:31:21,120
of those games. 
They didn't really over perform 

586
00:31:21,120 --> 00:31:23,120
against Louisville. 
They they they won that game by 

587
00:31:23,120 --> 00:31:24,600
about what they were projected 
to. 

588
00:31:24,760 --> 00:31:28,480
But beating Louisville anywhere,
HomeAway neutral floor, not 

589
00:31:28,480 --> 00:31:31,720
going to get you a lot in terms 
of the eyes of the NCAA 

590
00:31:31,720 --> 00:31:35,880
committee because Louisville is 
just simply not good. 

591
00:31:35,880 --> 00:31:41,480
That's not a tournament team. 
Their neutral court win against 

592
00:31:41,480 --> 00:31:44,160
Auburn went terribly. 
Not only did they lose that, 

593
00:31:44,160 --> 00:31:46,840
they got blown out. 
They dropped 12 spots and Ken 

594
00:31:46,840 --> 00:31:48,840
Palm as a result of that. 
So that was another missed 

595
00:31:48,840 --> 00:31:52,360
opportunity at a neutral or Rd. 
site win. 

596
00:31:53,080 --> 00:31:54,760
Where have they won away from 
home. 

597
00:31:54,760 --> 00:31:57,520
So they've beaten Michigan non 
tournament team on the road. 

598
00:31:58,000 --> 00:32:02,080
They've beaten Ohio State non 
tournament team on the road, 

599
00:32:02,680 --> 00:32:06,760
Maryland non tournament team on 
the road and Minnesota non 

600
00:32:06,760 --> 00:32:10,520
tournament team on the road. 
That's that's essentially it for

601
00:32:10,520 --> 00:32:13,080
Indiana in terms of racking up 
wins away from home. 

602
00:32:13,080 --> 00:32:16,360
They just don't have anything 
that the NCAA tournament 

603
00:32:16,360 --> 00:32:19,240
selection committee can point to
and say, oh, this looks like a 

604
00:32:19,240 --> 00:32:21,440
tournament team. 
This looks like a team that can 

605
00:32:21,440 --> 00:32:25,840
do something away from home. 
And if you go down and like you 

606
00:32:25,840 --> 00:32:28,960
know, you, you look at the teams
that are in contention, most of 

607
00:32:28,960 --> 00:32:31,200
them have at least one signature
victory. 

608
00:32:31,760 --> 00:32:33,640
The home wins just don't matter 
that much. 

609
00:32:33,640 --> 00:32:36,240
And you know the the reason for 
that, that you'll always hear, 

610
00:32:36,240 --> 00:32:39,280
and it's an accurate one and I 
mentioned it earlier, is that 

611
00:32:39,920 --> 00:32:42,280
you're not going to play NCAA 
tournament games at home. 

612
00:32:42,440 --> 00:32:44,040
You have to play them away from 
home. 

613
00:32:44,040 --> 00:32:46,600
There's a rule that you can't 
play an NCAA tournament game at 

614
00:32:46,600 --> 00:32:49,120
home. 
So when you go through and look,

615
00:32:49,120 --> 00:32:52,360
yes, Indiana now has beaten 
Michigan State at home by a 

616
00:32:52,360 --> 00:32:55,240
point. 
They beat Wisconsin at home by 4

617
00:32:55,240 --> 00:32:58,800
points. 
They beat Iowa, who's probably 

618
00:32:58,800 --> 00:33:01,560
not making the tournament. 
They beat Ohio State, who's not 

619
00:33:01,560 --> 00:33:03,480
making the tournament. 
They beat Minnesota, who's not 

620
00:33:03,480 --> 00:33:05,160
making the tournament. 
They beat Maryland, who's not 

621
00:33:05,160 --> 00:33:08,840
making the tournament. 
So they're just, they're not, 

622
00:33:08,840 --> 00:33:12,200
Unfortunately, a team that has 
done nearly enough to get even 

623
00:33:12,200 --> 00:33:15,600
into the at large conversation, 
they're going to have to win the

624
00:33:15,600 --> 00:33:19,120
Big 10 tournament, even winning 
in the in the Big 10 tournament.

625
00:33:19,240 --> 00:33:21,760
Probably not going to be enough 
to demonstrate to the committee 

626
00:33:21,760 --> 00:33:25,800
that they're even in the 
conversation we asked, we asked,

627
00:33:26,040 --> 00:33:28,400
Randy asked the question, what 
is Iowa's big victory? 

628
00:33:28,400 --> 00:33:32,560
So if you go to Iowa, you know 
what Iowa is struggling with 

629
00:33:32,560 --> 00:33:36,680
right now is the fact that their
best win or best wins. 

630
00:33:36,680 --> 00:33:38,840
Maybe we can categorize that 
they have a neutral court win 

631
00:33:38,840 --> 00:33:41,440
against the Seton Hall team that
they're kind of in conflict with

632
00:33:41,440 --> 00:33:45,200
for an at large bid right now on
a neutral floor. 

633
00:33:46,040 --> 00:33:49,080
They won at Michigan State, they
won at Northwestern. 

634
00:33:49,760 --> 00:33:52,160
If they don't have those two 
wins, both of which happened in 

635
00:33:52,160 --> 00:33:56,040
the last couple of of weeks, I 
was not even in the 

636
00:33:56,040 --> 00:33:59,480
conversation. 
Even with those wins, Iowa is 

637
00:33:59,480 --> 00:34:04,760
probably going to be on the 
outside looking in simply 

638
00:34:04,760 --> 00:34:07,000
because they just, they haven't 
done enough throughout the 

639
00:34:07,000 --> 00:34:08,880
course of the year. 
We had a question about 

640
00:34:08,880 --> 00:34:11,520
Villanova in the chat from Randy
as well. 

641
00:34:11,520 --> 00:34:14,520
So if we go back and look at 
Villanova's page, let me see if 

642
00:34:14,520 --> 00:34:16,080
I can call this up real quick 
for you all. 

643
00:34:17,520 --> 00:34:21,000
Villanova, despite having a 
pretty good overall efficiency 

644
00:34:21,000 --> 00:34:22,440
number, they're 29th in the 
country. 

645
00:34:22,440 --> 00:34:24,760
They're 14th in the country in 
defensive efficiency. 

646
00:34:25,120 --> 00:34:26,679
They have a couple of things 
that are really nice. 

647
00:34:26,679 --> 00:34:29,719
They have a neutral court win 
against Texas Tech, who's going 

648
00:34:29,719 --> 00:34:31,520
to the tournament. 
They have a neutral court win 

649
00:34:31,520 --> 00:34:33,760
against North Carolina, who's a 
potential one seed. 

650
00:34:33,960 --> 00:34:35,840
They have a road win against 
Creighton. 

651
00:34:35,960 --> 00:34:38,000
That's huge. 
Like not a lot of teams have, 

652
00:34:38,679 --> 00:34:43,159
have have won there. 
You know, Villanova's problem is

653
00:34:43,159 --> 00:34:46,440
that they've got some bad losses
early in the season, losing to 

654
00:34:46,440 --> 00:34:49,960
Penn, losing to Drexel, losing 
to Saint Joe's, and they just 

655
00:34:49,960 --> 00:34:52,840
have too many losses. 
I mean there's 17 and 14 right 

656
00:34:52,840 --> 00:34:57,080
now and you know, that's there's
just a lot of losses there. 

657
00:34:57,080 --> 00:34:58,760
They missed a lot of 
opportunities to pick up 

658
00:34:58,760 --> 00:35:01,560
additional wins that could have 
bolstered their case, whether it

659
00:35:01,560 --> 00:35:05,680
was at home versus UConn or 
Marquette or a road win against 

660
00:35:05,680 --> 00:35:09,960
a team like Xavier. 
So we had another interesting 

661
00:35:09,960 --> 00:35:12,440
question here and I appreciate 
everybody sending these 

662
00:35:12,440 --> 00:35:15,040
questions in. 
How much of these metrics are 

663
00:35:15,040 --> 00:35:16,600
colored by where they started 
the season? 

664
00:35:16,600 --> 00:35:18,560
In other words, there's a 
miscalculation of their starting

665
00:35:18,560 --> 00:35:20,320
numbers impact them at the end 
much. 

666
00:35:20,320 --> 00:35:22,600
It's a great question and the 
answer is no. 

667
00:35:22,760 --> 00:35:26,760
So first of all, the net doesn't
do a calculation until I think 

668
00:35:27,280 --> 00:35:29,320
it's like late December or early
January. 

669
00:35:29,320 --> 00:35:31,600
I forget the exact date, but 
they don't even start 

670
00:35:31,600 --> 00:35:35,920
calculating until that point. 
For something like Pomeroy, what

671
00:35:35,920 --> 00:35:41,960
what they'll do is they'll start
a team based upon a pre season 

672
00:35:41,960 --> 00:35:44,920
set of expectations with some 
aspects of the previous year 

673
00:35:44,920 --> 00:35:48,640
baked into the numbers. 
But then what occurs is after 10

674
00:35:48,640 --> 00:35:54,360
games, the pre information about
that team filters out and it's 

675
00:35:54,360 --> 00:35:59,440
replaced entirely by what has 
gone on in the season that we're

676
00:35:59,440 --> 00:36:02,880
talking about. 
So that's how you know you've 

677
00:36:02,880 --> 00:36:06,040
got a preliminary number like 
Indiana preliminarily was 50th. 

678
00:36:06,040 --> 00:36:08,960
That was clearly an over 
calculation of how good Indiana 

679
00:36:08,960 --> 00:36:13,080
was going to be. 
And so ultimately as Indiana 

680
00:36:13,080 --> 00:36:16,760
played games the computer 
started to count that pre season

681
00:36:16,760 --> 00:36:21,080
calculation less and less until 
after 10 games suddenly you're 

682
00:36:21,160 --> 00:36:25,360
only focusing on the data set 
that's been generated so far in 

683
00:36:25,360 --> 00:36:26,840
the season that you're talking 
about. 

684
00:36:27,000 --> 00:36:31,040
So it's not like for instance, a
like the AP. 

685
00:36:31,040 --> 00:36:34,240
Poll in football or basketball 
where if a team gets overrated 

686
00:36:34,240 --> 00:36:36,480
or underrated early, it can be 
very hard for them to either 

687
00:36:36,480 --> 00:36:39,680
fall out of the rankings when 
they deserve to or. 

688
00:36:40,080 --> 00:36:42,120
Boost their rankings if they 
start outside. 

689
00:36:42,240 --> 00:36:47,080
That's not how this works. 
This whole thing gets calculated

690
00:36:47,080 --> 00:36:51,600
according essentially to had new
data being added at all times. 

691
00:36:51,800 --> 00:36:53,560
Someone asked me to look at 
Michigan State. 

692
00:36:53,720 --> 00:36:55,480
It's an interesting case. 
It really is. 

693
00:36:55,680 --> 00:36:58,160
Why is Michigan State such a a 
big question mark? 

694
00:36:58,160 --> 00:37:00,920
This should actually be a bigger
question mark than they are 

695
00:37:01,800 --> 00:37:05,840
Going into the NCAA tournament. 
They have one of the best 

696
00:37:05,840 --> 00:37:08,920
defenses in the country and a 
pretty efficient offense. 

697
00:37:10,320 --> 00:37:14,640
Their best win on the season is 
a semi home win by 24 points 

698
00:37:14,640 --> 00:37:16,600
against Baylor and Baylor's a 
really good team. 

699
00:37:16,960 --> 00:37:20,880
They but all the rest of their 
wins of note have come at home. 

700
00:37:21,560 --> 00:37:24,400
You know their their best win 
away from home and I'm not going

701
00:37:24,400 --> 00:37:27,160
to count that Baylor game. 
Their best win away from home is

702
00:37:27,360 --> 00:37:31,800
probably Maryland, which is the 
same win that Indiana has. 

703
00:37:32,240 --> 00:37:35,840
The difference is twofold 
between Michigan State and 

704
00:37:35,840 --> 00:37:39,360
Indiana. 
A Michigan State, again, because

705
00:37:39,360 --> 00:37:42,640
they play a slower tempo and 
because they really do a good 

706
00:37:42,640 --> 00:37:47,080
job of holding opponents to not 
scoring, they look better 

707
00:37:47,080 --> 00:37:51,160
according to the computers. 
And the other thing is, you 

708
00:37:51,160 --> 00:37:55,040
know, they don't have a lot of 
bad losses, you know, in fact, 

709
00:37:55,080 --> 00:37:58,160
ironically, you know the the 
loss against Indiana is one of 

710
00:37:58,160 --> 00:38:01,000
the the worst losses, maybe the 
worst loss they've got all 

711
00:38:01,000 --> 00:38:03,160
season. 
Although if you factor in home 

712
00:38:03,280 --> 00:38:07,120
versus away, the worst loss for 
them is it's probably either the

713
00:38:07,120 --> 00:38:09,000
James Madison game or the Iowa 
game. 

714
00:38:10,600 --> 00:38:12,880
Michigan State. 
Are they getting the benefit of 

715
00:38:12,880 --> 00:38:14,120
the doubt? 
Like there's no secret 

716
00:38:14,120 --> 00:38:16,800
calculation in the net. 
It's simply that they have. 

717
00:38:17,120 --> 00:38:20,000
They've won a lot of games, 
impressively against teams that 

718
00:38:20,000 --> 00:38:23,480
they weren't expected to win by 
as much against, and when 

719
00:38:23,480 --> 00:38:26,400
they've lost games. 
By and large it hasn't been a 

720
00:38:26,400 --> 00:38:28,640
lot of blowouts. 3 point loss to
James Madison. 

721
00:38:28,640 --> 00:38:32,120
Six point loss to Arizona. 7 
point loss at Nebraska. 

722
00:38:32,720 --> 00:38:36,040
Four or three-point loss at 
Illinois. 3 point loss at 

723
00:38:36,040 --> 00:38:38,000
Minnesota. 
One point loss last night. 

724
00:38:38,560 --> 00:38:41,360
So you can see what's happened 
is, you know, it's interesting. 

725
00:38:41,360 --> 00:38:44,920
Michigan State like, dropped 
early in the net, climbed back 

726
00:38:44,920 --> 00:38:46,640
up. 
And really, since Big 10 play 

727
00:38:46,640 --> 00:38:49,520
started, their play has been 
incredibly consistent. 

728
00:38:49,760 --> 00:38:53,840
They haven't been great. 
They haven't been terrible, you 

729
00:38:53,840 --> 00:38:57,040
know, and they're 10 and 10 in 
conference, but they've avoided 

730
00:38:57,040 --> 00:39:00,400
a lot of the huge ups and downs 
or mostly downs that Indiana 

731
00:39:00,400 --> 00:39:04,320
had, and that has helped them 
maintain their net rating and 

732
00:39:04,320 --> 00:39:06,080
their Kenpom rating where it's 
at. 

733
00:39:06,360 --> 00:39:09,320
So kind of a circuitous way of 
answering all of that. 

734
00:39:09,320 --> 00:39:12,120
But what I'm trying to get 
across to you is this idea that 

735
00:39:13,040 --> 00:39:17,440
ultimately it's not simply wins 
and losses, it's how you play in

736
00:39:17,440 --> 00:39:19,760
those games and what the 
expectations were. 

737
00:39:20,960 --> 00:39:25,040
And so as we go through all of 
this, you know, you just have to

738
00:39:25,040 --> 00:39:28,160
keep in mind that like Indiana 
had every opportunity to over 

739
00:39:28,160 --> 00:39:32,400
perform expectations or just 
perform 2 expectations and just 

740
00:39:32,400 --> 00:39:34,680
didn't. 
And this is something I talked 

741
00:39:34,680 --> 00:39:37,760
about on on one of the preview 
podcasts the other day. 

742
00:39:38,200 --> 00:39:42,960
There's an interesting statistic
in Kenpalm that a lot of people 

743
00:39:42,960 --> 00:39:46,640
misinterpret, but it's a great, 
you know, and it's an 

744
00:39:46,640 --> 00:39:49,560
interesting factor in in trying 
to determine how things are 

745
00:39:49,560 --> 00:39:51,960
playing. 
Let me let me show you this 

746
00:39:52,160 --> 00:39:54,200
statistic here. 
It's called the luck statistic. 

747
00:39:54,480 --> 00:40:00,000
So luck in computers doesn't 
really exist. 

748
00:40:00,080 --> 00:40:03,320
What luck is, is basically 
looking at how your team has 

749
00:40:03,320 --> 00:40:06,520
performed consistently 
statistically over time and then

750
00:40:06,520 --> 00:40:08,840
reconciling that with what your 
actual record is. 

751
00:40:09,080 --> 00:40:12,720
So if the computers are looking 
at how you've played in all of 

752
00:40:12,720 --> 00:40:15,640
these games. 
And it says, well, that should 

753
00:40:15,640 --> 00:40:19,000
be the 15th ranked team in the 
country, but you're you've 

754
00:40:19,160 --> 00:40:22,520
you've lost 11 games. 
You're probably very unlucky in 

755
00:40:22,520 --> 00:40:24,960
how things have factored out 
because you've lost a lot of 

756
00:40:24,960 --> 00:40:27,560
games that you wouldn't have 
been expected to lose based upon

757
00:40:27,560 --> 00:40:30,560
how you play. 
So what's always interesting is 

758
00:40:30,560 --> 00:40:32,920
like, you know, looking at who 
the luckiest and unluckiest 

759
00:40:32,920 --> 00:40:35,840
teams are in the country. 
So Michigan State is a great 

760
00:40:35,840 --> 00:40:38,680
example of this, and it's one of
the reasons why their ranking is

761
00:40:38,680 --> 00:40:40,800
so high. 
If you look at this, their luck 

762
00:40:41,280 --> 00:40:45,400
ranking is 354, which means they
are one of the unluckiest teams 

763
00:40:46,200 --> 00:40:47,880
in the entirety of college 
basketball. 

764
00:40:47,880 --> 00:40:50,680
Well, what does that mean? 
It means they've performed well 

765
00:40:50,680 --> 00:40:53,000
enough in several games that 
they, according to the 

766
00:40:53,000 --> 00:40:56,640
computers, should probably have 
far fewer losses than they do. 

767
00:40:57,200 --> 00:41:01,360
But they lost those games and so
they are deemed unlucky that 

768
00:41:01,360 --> 00:41:03,600
statistically they didn't win 
those games. 

769
00:41:03,600 --> 00:41:06,760
A-Team like Purdue is one of the
luckier teams in college 

770
00:41:06,760 --> 00:41:11,440
basketball where they have won 
several games that statistically

771
00:41:11,720 --> 00:41:15,120
they probably shouldn't have won
based upon how they play. 

772
00:41:15,360 --> 00:41:17,720
So you take that and you average
it over the course of the season

773
00:41:17,720 --> 00:41:19,200
and that's where that factor 
comes from. 

774
00:41:19,200 --> 00:41:22,200
Now if we go down to Indiana, 
and this is the thing that's 

775
00:41:22,200 --> 00:41:24,840
kind of fascinating about 
Indiana, there they are. 

776
00:41:25,000 --> 00:41:29,200
Indiana is in the top ten in 
luck in all of college 

777
00:41:29,200 --> 00:41:32,800
basketball, and that is another 
reason why Indiana's metrics are

778
00:41:32,800 --> 00:41:36,240
so low is because according to 
the computers, Indiana shouldn't

779
00:41:36,240 --> 00:41:39,240
even be 18 and 13. 
Indiana should probably be 

780
00:41:39,240 --> 00:41:42,320
closer to a 500 team. 
But they've managed to squeeze 

781
00:41:42,320 --> 00:41:44,480
out some of these games, 
including the game last night 

782
00:41:44,600 --> 00:41:46,960
against Michigan State, 
including the Wisconsin game, 

783
00:41:47,240 --> 00:41:49,760
where statistically they 
underperformed, but they still 

784
00:41:49,760 --> 00:41:53,800
won the games. 
And so that's where luck comes 

785
00:41:53,800 --> 00:41:56,080
in. 
And you know, there's a few 

786
00:41:56,080 --> 00:41:57,680
other teams that fall into that 
category. 

787
00:41:57,680 --> 00:42:00,160
Syracuse has been incredibly 
lucky in terms of how they have 

788
00:42:00,160 --> 00:42:03,280
played. 
South Carolina, who's at a 

789
00:42:03,280 --> 00:42:06,560
really good season, has been 
incredibly lucky because they've

790
00:42:06,680 --> 00:42:08,760
they've won several games 
against teams they probably 

791
00:42:08,760 --> 00:42:10,880
shouldn't have. 
So that's how all of that works.

792
00:42:10,880 --> 00:42:13,120
Now I got several questions in 
that space that I want to go 

793
00:42:13,120 --> 00:42:18,040
back and and track. 
So first of all, Tony Stuckey 

794
00:42:18,040 --> 00:42:21,200
asks do you think a cap needs to
be implemented to avoid beating 

795
00:42:21,200 --> 00:42:24,080
up on a lower rated team by 30 
points to game the ratings. 

796
00:42:24,720 --> 00:42:27,640
So I'm going to say the 
unpopular thing here and say no,

797
00:42:27,640 --> 00:42:28,920
I don't think there should be a 
cap. 

798
00:42:29,080 --> 00:42:34,000
Here's why. 
If you go back and look at all 

799
00:42:34,000 --> 00:42:38,480
of the ways that we've tried to 
calculate sports and use 

800
00:42:38,480 --> 00:42:42,320
computers to be predictive and 
how things are going, including 

801
00:42:42,320 --> 00:42:45,200
the full margin of victory 
almost always gives you a more 

802
00:42:45,200 --> 00:42:48,960
accurate number than not. 
You know, there's been all this 

803
00:42:48,960 --> 00:42:52,880
noise from like, ACC coaches 
like, oh, the Big 12 games, the 

804
00:42:52,880 --> 00:42:55,400
net, because they're blowing all
these teams out. 

805
00:42:55,640 --> 00:42:59,960
And you know, the teams are bad,
like they're 300 and worst teams

806
00:42:59,960 --> 00:43:03,800
like, well then here's the 
thing, The ACC could have done 

807
00:43:03,800 --> 00:43:07,800
the same thing and and and the 
ACC in the games that they 

808
00:43:07,800 --> 00:43:09,680
played that were against 
slightly better competition 

809
00:43:09,680 --> 00:43:11,040
could have blown those teams out
too. 

810
00:43:11,040 --> 00:43:16,680
But they didn't. 
Ultimately, the numbers work 

811
00:43:16,680 --> 00:43:20,320
year after year. 
It's very rare that you get 

812
00:43:20,320 --> 00:43:24,040
teams that aren't adequately 
represented in the predictive 

813
00:43:24,040 --> 00:43:27,480
statistics, you know, as the 
best teams in the country at the

814
00:43:27,480 --> 00:43:30,680
end of the year. 
I think the whole idea about 

815
00:43:30,680 --> 00:43:34,320
trying to cap margin of victory,
maybe there's a diminishing 

816
00:43:34,320 --> 00:43:36,400
returns moment. 
But I think capping it entirely 

817
00:43:36,400 --> 00:43:38,760
kind of defeats the point, which
is that you want to get an 

818
00:43:38,760 --> 00:43:42,080
accurate sense of how good a 
particular team is versus 

819
00:43:42,080 --> 00:43:44,480
another team. 
And just saying, well, gosh, 

820
00:43:44,480 --> 00:43:48,240
anything over 20 points or every
anything over 15 points we're 

821
00:43:48,240 --> 00:43:50,880
not going to count, doesn't 
really give you a fully accurate

822
00:43:50,880 --> 00:43:52,720
representation. 
And I think, you know, this is 

823
00:43:52,720 --> 00:43:56,080
where Indiana's a good example 
of this, Like Indiana not being 

824
00:43:56,080 --> 00:44:00,840
able to beat Army by significant
margins where other teams were, 

825
00:44:01,520 --> 00:44:05,240
was a representation of, you 
know, the relative strength of 

826
00:44:05,240 --> 00:44:06,800
Indiana versus those other 
teams. 

827
00:44:07,000 --> 00:44:10,840
So just artificially capping it 
because, you know, people accuse

828
00:44:10,840 --> 00:44:13,720
you of gaming the system by 
blowing out bad opponents, I 

829
00:44:13,720 --> 00:44:15,640
don't really think achieves what
people think it's going to 

830
00:44:15,640 --> 00:44:17,320
achieve. 
It'll actually make the data 

831
00:44:17,440 --> 00:44:20,000
less valuable. 
There was examples for this in 

832
00:44:20,000 --> 00:44:22,320
football when they were putting 
the BCS together. 

833
00:44:22,320 --> 00:44:27,000
If you remember the BCS, they 
had margin of victory in there 

834
00:44:27,000 --> 00:44:29,000
originally. 
The reason why they took it out 

835
00:44:29,000 --> 00:44:31,400
wasn't because it wasn't a 
statistically valid measure. 

836
00:44:31,680 --> 00:44:35,720
It was because the NCAA didn't 
like the idea of incentivizing 

837
00:44:35,720 --> 00:44:39,600
teams to run up the score, which
you could argue whether it 

838
00:44:39,600 --> 00:44:42,640
actually incentivized that, but 
that's why the NCAA forced the 

839
00:44:42,640 --> 00:44:44,840
BCS formula to take out margin 
of victory. 

840
00:44:45,200 --> 00:44:49,760
The thing is though, you get a 
better statistical profile of a 

841
00:44:49,760 --> 00:44:51,680
team. 
If they blow A-Team out and you 

842
00:44:51,680 --> 00:44:54,400
give them full credit for all of
that, then if you blow, if they 

843
00:44:54,400 --> 00:44:56,280
blow A-Team out and you only 
give them credit for half of 

844
00:44:56,280 --> 00:45:00,000
what they did. 
So that's where I am not a fan 

845
00:45:00,000 --> 00:45:02,760
of of capping those things 
artificially unless it makes 

846
00:45:02,760 --> 00:45:05,280
statistical sense to the people 
that put the formulas together. 

847
00:45:05,520 --> 00:45:07,720
And it seems like rarely does 
that happen. 

848
00:45:09,800 --> 00:45:11,160
So, Randy asked. 
Do I agree? 

849
00:45:11,360 --> 00:45:13,400
There we go. 
Does do you agree with the 

850
00:45:13,400 --> 00:45:16,480
current process or is it flawed?
I Randy, if you're still 

851
00:45:16,480 --> 00:45:18,920
watching, I'd be curious which 
process you're talking about. 

852
00:45:18,920 --> 00:45:22,720
If you're talking about the 
selection process, I do think 

853
00:45:22,720 --> 00:45:27,080
the selection process is flawed,
but not because of any of the 

854
00:45:27,080 --> 00:45:29,080
computer rankings. 
I actually think they're the 

855
00:45:29,360 --> 00:45:32,040
selection process is flawed 
because they have all these 

856
00:45:32,040 --> 00:45:37,880
computer rankings, but they use 
human judgement to rank the 

857
00:45:37,880 --> 00:45:41,120
teams rather than, you know, 
letting the computers play a 

858
00:45:41,120 --> 00:45:43,560
larger role. 
And you can say, well you can't 

859
00:45:43,560 --> 00:45:47,200
just judge based on computers. 
And there's a little bit of 

860
00:45:47,200 --> 00:45:49,640
truth to that. 
But the problem is when you 

861
00:45:49,640 --> 00:45:53,320
start getting into subjective 
territory, you end up not really

862
00:45:53,320 --> 00:45:56,680
providing I think an accurate 
picture of what's going on. 

863
00:45:57,080 --> 00:46:01,040
And look, I think A-Team that's 
good enough to over perform its 

864
00:46:01,040 --> 00:46:04,680
metrics expectations is going to
be able to win against a higher 

865
00:46:04,680 --> 00:46:06,400
metric size team that isn't as 
good. 

866
00:46:08,320 --> 00:46:10,480
Randy asks. 
This is the clarification. 

867
00:46:10,480 --> 00:46:13,800
The idea that teams can't 
improve and that they are what 

868
00:46:13,800 --> 00:46:16,320
they're at the beginning IU as a
new roster but clearly got 

869
00:46:16,320 --> 00:46:18,000
better even though though it 
took so much time. 

870
00:46:18,120 --> 00:46:21,560
See here's the thing, I don't 
agree with the premise of your 

871
00:46:21,560 --> 00:46:23,720
statement. 
IU has had plenty of 

872
00:46:23,720 --> 00:46:26,840
opportunities to get better and 
demonstrate that on the floor 

873
00:46:27,120 --> 00:46:31,120
and even though they've won 
these last four games you know 

874
00:46:31,120 --> 00:46:33,400
they've they've they have 
improved. 

875
00:46:33,400 --> 00:46:38,200
I mean they going into the going
into the Wisconsin game, Indiana

876
00:46:38,200 --> 00:46:42,520
was 104th in Ken Palm. 
Coming out of the Michigan State

877
00:46:42,520 --> 00:46:46,080
game, they're 86th in Ken Palm. 
So that means in two weeks they 

878
00:46:46,080 --> 00:46:51,680
have jumped over what the 20 
spots basically, which is a huge

879
00:46:51,680 --> 00:46:53,600
improvement. 
I mean that is that is an 

880
00:46:53,600 --> 00:46:56,240
immense improvement. 
But The thing is you have to 

881
00:46:56,240 --> 00:47:01,720
judge the the whole season. 
You can't just say, well, this 

882
00:47:01,720 --> 00:47:04,640
team's playing well at this 
particular point in the year you

883
00:47:04,640 --> 00:47:06,240
would. 
We've had people say, well, 

884
00:47:06,240 --> 00:47:08,280
maybe they should just take a 
record of how you played in the 

885
00:47:08,280 --> 00:47:10,320
last 10 games. 
The thing is, though, 

886
00:47:10,320 --> 00:47:12,800
statistically, when we've gone 
back and looked at that, what we

887
00:47:12,800 --> 00:47:16,200
found is that doesn't really 
give you any clearer sense of 

888
00:47:16,200 --> 00:47:18,680
how good or bad a team is. 
You have to take us a team's 

889
00:47:18,680 --> 00:47:21,880
entire season in totality if 
you're going to try to figure 

890
00:47:21,880 --> 00:47:24,640
out how good they are. 
And so even though Indiana has 

891
00:47:24,640 --> 00:47:27,520
played better here down the 
stretch, at the end of the day 

892
00:47:27,640 --> 00:47:32,840
when you're judging a team's 
entire resume, it really doesn't

893
00:47:32,840 --> 00:47:36,440
do a whole lot value wise to 
just reward teams who are only 

894
00:47:36,440 --> 00:47:38,400
playing better at the end of the
season. 

895
00:47:38,760 --> 00:47:41,960
And you know, there's a there's 
a lot of examples of this. 

896
00:47:41,960 --> 00:47:43,640
I'm not going to go through all 
of them right now. 

897
00:47:45,560 --> 00:47:49,760
Ultimately, what you get is the 
situation where teams can win a 

898
00:47:49,760 --> 00:47:52,760
few games and string those 
together and maybe play better 

899
00:47:52,760 --> 00:47:54,320
than what their expectations 
were. 

900
00:47:54,600 --> 00:47:59,240
But ultimately, it all ends up 
being this larger picture, and 

901
00:47:59,240 --> 00:48:03,080
the larger picture is how the 
NCAA selection committee tries 

902
00:48:03,080 --> 00:48:05,560
to judge who's getting into the 
tournament and who isn't. 

903
00:48:05,760 --> 00:48:08,280
And I think that ultimately 
that's a fair representation 

904
00:48:09,480 --> 00:48:13,840
because you have generally 
gotten teams pretty accurate in 

905
00:48:13,840 --> 00:48:16,440
terms of their overall seating 
and how things play out. 

906
00:48:16,680 --> 00:48:19,040
There's always other factors 
that come into play, but I don't

907
00:48:19,040 --> 00:48:21,360
think that it's necessarily a 
flawed process. 

908
00:48:22,160 --> 00:48:24,560
Indiana just dug themselves a 
huge hole with the way they 

909
00:48:24,560 --> 00:48:27,160
played for most of the season 
and that's an important thing to

910
00:48:27,160 --> 00:48:30,240
keep in mind. 
OK, so Patrick's got some 

911
00:48:30,240 --> 00:48:32,320
issues, so let's see. 
I'm saying remove the 

912
00:48:32,320 --> 00:48:34,440
subjectivity, but the data can 
be manipulated. 

913
00:48:36,080 --> 00:48:38,560
It's proven by weighing the data
so heavily. 

914
00:48:38,560 --> 00:48:41,160
You have the nonsense of Ms. use
analytics being that much better

915
00:48:41,160 --> 00:48:42,160
than I use. 
I don't think that it's 

916
00:48:42,160 --> 00:48:44,560
nonsense. 
I mean, at the end of the day, 

917
00:48:46,000 --> 00:48:49,760
you know, first of all, it was 
interesting because looking at 

918
00:48:49,760 --> 00:48:52,760
the all of the metrics put 
together, they only had Michigan

919
00:48:52,760 --> 00:48:57,280
State as about a 3 1/2 point 
favorite or a three-point 

920
00:48:57,280 --> 00:48:58,880
favorite in that game versus 
Indiana. 

921
00:48:59,040 --> 00:49:00,880
Indiana won that game by a 
point. 

922
00:49:01,200 --> 00:49:03,040
Now there's a lot of factors 
that go into that. 

923
00:49:03,040 --> 00:49:05,440
One of them is Indiana's overall
success at home. 

924
00:49:05,640 --> 00:49:07,480
Michigan State struggles on the 
road. 

925
00:49:08,080 --> 00:49:11,200
But it's also that, you know, 
Michigan State plays really good

926
00:49:11,200 --> 00:49:14,320
defense and at the end of the 
day, Michigan State was one shot

927
00:49:14,320 --> 00:49:16,400
away from winning that game. 
If you look at what happened in 

928
00:49:16,400 --> 00:49:20,040
that game, it kind of held true 
to form in a game that started 

929
00:49:20,040 --> 00:49:21,760
with Michigan State as a slight 
favorite. 

930
00:49:21,960 --> 00:49:24,680
Michigan State held Indiana to 
under a point per possession, 

931
00:49:24,680 --> 00:49:28,240
which is what Michigan State 
does, and they themselves just 

932
00:49:28,240 --> 00:49:32,400
couldn't score nearly as well to
to do what they needed to do to 

933
00:49:32,400 --> 00:49:35,600
win that game. 
Just because Indiana beats 

934
00:49:35,600 --> 00:49:40,760
Michigan State in one game at 
home by a point doesn't mean 

935
00:49:40,920 --> 00:49:43,200
that Michigan State being 
significantly better in the 

936
00:49:43,200 --> 00:49:46,160
metrics is wrong. 
And you know, with Michigan 

937
00:49:46,160 --> 00:49:49,120
State, as I pointed out earlier,
it's not that they blew a bunch 

938
00:49:49,120 --> 00:49:51,920
of opponents out per SE, it's 
that they've lost a bunch of 

939
00:49:51,920 --> 00:49:54,760
very close games. 
Indiana doesn't really have that

940
00:49:54,760 --> 00:49:57,440
on their resume. 
And overall Michigan State has 

941
00:49:57,440 --> 00:49:59,960
played better in terms of 
offensive and defensive 

942
00:49:59,960 --> 00:50:03,200
efficiency by a pretty 
significant margin versus what 

943
00:50:03,600 --> 00:50:05,920
versus what Indiana has done 
over the course of the season. 

944
00:50:06,320 --> 00:50:09,440
So I don't, I don't think that 
that's data being manipulated. 

945
00:50:10,440 --> 00:50:13,680
You know even the arguments that
oh you're going to go blow out a

946
00:50:13,680 --> 00:50:16,040
bunch of bad teams in the non 
conference and that's going to 

947
00:50:16,040 --> 00:50:18,600
artificially inflate your stats.
That's not artificial inflation.

948
00:50:18,880 --> 00:50:21,040
That's that's just a 
representation that you are 

949
00:50:21,040 --> 00:50:25,280
beating teams by a large margin 
and that matters. 

950
00:50:25,280 --> 00:50:29,080
You know, I mean if no one's, no
one's going to sit there and and

951
00:50:29,720 --> 00:50:33,880
you know, in any individual game
I think say well that shouldn't 

952
00:50:33,880 --> 00:50:38,160
count because that team only 
beat that team by XY or ZI. 

953
00:50:40,000 --> 00:50:42,440
Think ultimately as you get into
this you're you've got to look 

954
00:50:42,440 --> 00:50:46,560
at it in the aggregate and you 
have to say that when you are 

955
00:50:46,560 --> 00:50:52,040
beating teams by a larger margin
than you're expected to, that 

956
00:50:52,040 --> 00:50:54,680
indicates that you are probably 
a better team than the computers

957
00:50:54,680 --> 00:50:56,280
thought. 
But these things settle down 

958
00:50:56,280 --> 00:50:59,000
over the course of the season. 
All of these curves kind of 

959
00:50:59,000 --> 00:51:01,600
settle in and it again, it 
becomes an average over the 

960
00:51:01,600 --> 00:51:07,040
course of time. 
Let's see, we're going to Scroll

961
00:51:07,040 --> 00:51:10,240
down here and get some other 
other comments. 

962
00:51:10,640 --> 00:51:13,400
So Scotty says winning margin 
and efficiency metrics seem to 

963
00:51:13,400 --> 00:51:15,520
weigh much more than other 
factors. 

964
00:51:15,520 --> 00:51:17,840
Well, you have to keep they they
do. 

965
00:51:17,840 --> 00:51:20,560
But you have to keep in mind 
that ultimately the goal in a 

966
00:51:20,560 --> 00:51:24,080
basketball game is to win by 
scoring more points than the 

967
00:51:24,080 --> 00:51:28,040
opposition. 
So of course efficiency margin 

968
00:51:28,040 --> 00:51:31,680
matters with that because that 
is ultimately the way that you 

969
00:51:31,680 --> 00:51:36,080
calculate that over 30 games or 
35 games is what have you done 

970
00:51:36,240 --> 00:51:40,240
adjusted for opponent in all of 
these games And if you've 

971
00:51:40,240 --> 00:51:43,040
performed better against better 
teams or you've performed better

972
00:51:43,040 --> 00:51:46,000
according to expectations that 
is going to factor in. 

973
00:51:46,160 --> 00:51:49,040
And I mean what I I guess what 
I'm curious with all you folks 

974
00:51:49,040 --> 00:51:52,360
that seem to be have have a 
problem with winning margin. 

975
00:51:53,400 --> 00:51:57,680
You know the idea that you would
only count a win as opposed to 

976
00:51:58,520 --> 00:52:01,920
considering how the win happened
and what the margin was. 

977
00:52:02,320 --> 00:52:04,720
That is what we had for years 
with the RPI. 

978
00:52:05,160 --> 00:52:07,720
For those of you who are old 
enough to remember the RPI which

979
00:52:07,720 --> 00:52:12,600
they finally retired a few years
ago, all the RPI calculated was 

980
00:52:13,240 --> 00:52:16,480
did you win or lose the games, 
what was the record of the 

981
00:52:16,480 --> 00:52:19,080
opponents that you beat and what
was the record of the opponents 

982
00:52:19,080 --> 00:52:22,640
opponents? 
Well, that gave us some wildly 

983
00:52:22,680 --> 00:52:26,920
inaccurate ratings for how good 
or how bad teams were, and it 

984
00:52:26,920 --> 00:52:29,840
essentially made the whole 
exercise just a matter of 

985
00:52:29,840 --> 00:52:32,320
racking up as many wins as 
possible, which was not an 

986
00:52:32,320 --> 00:52:36,640
accurate metric, you know, So to
me, is this a perfect system? 

987
00:52:36,760 --> 00:52:39,200
No. 
But I think that considering 

988
00:52:39,200 --> 00:52:41,400
margin of victory and 
considering winning margin, 

989
00:52:41,400 --> 00:52:46,160
considering efficiency gives a 
far more accurate portrayal of 

990
00:52:46,160 --> 00:52:49,680
how good or how bad a team is, 
you know? 

991
00:52:49,680 --> 00:52:53,320
And so that all of those things 
do have to factor in. 

992
00:52:53,920 --> 00:52:56,120
Let me get a couple comments in 
here, Randy says. 

993
00:52:56,120 --> 00:52:58,080
I figured after losing to 
Kansas, we were essentially 

994
00:52:58,080 --> 00:52:59,440
going to have to beat Purdue 
once. 

995
00:52:59,640 --> 00:53:02,200
When we didn't, it was over. 
I mean, there were other routes 

996
00:53:02,200 --> 00:53:04,760
for Indiana that didn't involve 
beating Purdue. 

997
00:53:05,720 --> 00:53:07,760
You know, and if you go back and
look at it, I'm going to call 

998
00:53:07,760 --> 00:53:10,640
this this page back up because I
think it's informative. 

999
00:53:11,680 --> 00:53:15,160
If you look at Indiana's games 
that they played, where were the

1000
00:53:15,160 --> 00:53:18,200
opportunities for Indiana after 
they lost that Kansas game? 

1001
00:53:19,040 --> 00:53:22,280
I mean, beating Nebraska at 
Nebraska would have been a 

1002
00:53:22,280 --> 00:53:23,960
really nice win. 
That would have been a 

1003
00:53:23,960 --> 00:53:26,680
tournament caliber win. 
Instead, Indiana lost by 16. 

1004
00:53:27,640 --> 00:53:30,960
Beating Wisconsin on the road at
the time would have been a 

1005
00:53:30,960 --> 00:53:33,120
really good win, and even now it
would be a good win. 

1006
00:53:33,120 --> 00:53:35,960
Instead, they lost by 12. 
Beating Illinois on the road 

1007
00:53:36,080 --> 00:53:38,640
would have been a big win. 
Instead they lost by 8. 

1008
00:53:39,480 --> 00:53:42,640
You know, beating Northwestern 
at home wouldn't have counted 

1009
00:53:42,640 --> 00:53:44,400
quite as much, but that would 
have been nice. 

1010
00:53:44,400 --> 00:53:47,560
They lose that game, beating 
Nebraska at home would have been

1011
00:53:47,560 --> 00:53:49,600
nice. 
Instead they lose by the margin 

1012
00:53:49,600 --> 00:53:52,960
that they did. 
So you know a lot of this was 

1013
00:53:52,960 --> 00:53:56,240
you know Indiana had some 
opportunities in the non 

1014
00:53:56,240 --> 00:53:59,800
conference to build a resume 
that was going to be worthwhile 

1015
00:54:00,080 --> 00:54:03,040
and they and they just failed 
pretty much at every every turn.

1016
00:54:03,800 --> 00:54:08,880
So it does to some degree factor
a lot of different things in as 

1017
00:54:08,880 --> 00:54:10,960
you go through and it's 
interesting kind of watching the

1018
00:54:10,960 --> 00:54:12,840
numbers go up and down 
throughout the course of the 

1019
00:54:12,840 --> 00:54:15,120
year. 
And again, one of the things to 

1020
00:54:15,120 --> 00:54:17,720
keep in mind is all of this 
stuff is being calculated with 

1021
00:54:17,800 --> 00:54:24,160
all 357 teams. 
So every day games happen and 

1022
00:54:24,160 --> 00:54:27,040
that has a knock on effect in 
terms of trying to figure out 

1023
00:54:27,040 --> 00:54:29,640
how good or bad each team is, 
which then will affect the 

1024
00:54:29,640 --> 00:54:33,080
overall calculations. 
So again, the computers have 

1025
00:54:33,080 --> 00:54:36,840
taken into account, OK, Indiana 
won these games and lost these 

1026
00:54:36,840 --> 00:54:39,120
games by these margins against 
these teams. 

1027
00:54:39,480 --> 00:54:44,280
And as that goes along, the the 
numbers will change even in the 

1028
00:54:44,280 --> 00:54:46,960
background, not just based upon 
what Indiana's doing in the 

1029
00:54:46,960 --> 00:54:49,520
moment, but what other teams 
have started to do. 

1030
00:54:49,520 --> 00:54:52,960
So like, you know, Wisconsin 
falling off the map a bit or 

1031
00:54:52,960 --> 00:54:56,120
Ohio State starting to play 
better, You know, those will 

1032
00:54:56,120 --> 00:55:00,080
have a push and pull effect 
where Wisconsin not being good 

1033
00:55:00,280 --> 00:55:03,320
can actually hurt Indiana's 
rating because they they lost to

1034
00:55:03,320 --> 00:55:06,440
them on the road by 12. 
But Ohio State being better 

1035
00:55:06,640 --> 00:55:08,960
makes Indiana's overall numbers 
look better. 

1036
00:55:09,800 --> 00:55:13,240
So that's that's overall that I 
think that's an interesting 

1037
00:55:13,240 --> 00:55:16,800
thing to factor in. 
Who's your three ass? 

1038
00:55:16,800 --> 00:55:20,280
I thought quad wins and losses 
were important, but yet Indiana 

1039
00:55:20,280 --> 00:55:22,440
and Michigan State are virtually
the same well. 

1040
00:55:22,680 --> 00:55:25,080
So this is a good, a good 
question and I'm glad that 

1041
00:55:25,080 --> 00:55:28,720
somebody asked this. 
So the quad wins are important 

1042
00:55:28,720 --> 00:55:31,080
and I'm going to call the net 
back up so that we can kind of 

1043
00:55:31,120 --> 00:55:35,440
look through these together. 
Here we go. 

1044
00:55:37,040 --> 00:55:40,800
So if you look at the quad 
numbers, yes, if we look at 

1045
00:55:40,800 --> 00:55:44,480
Michigan State, who's 25th in 
the net now, Michigan State's 

1046
00:55:44,480 --> 00:55:47,280
three and eight in quad 1/5 and 
five in quad 2. 

1047
00:55:47,600 --> 00:55:52,840
If you Scroll down to Indiana, 
here we go, Indiana's three and 

1048
00:55:52,840 --> 00:55:57,080
eight in quad 1/5 and 4IN, quad 
2, four and one in quad 3. 

1049
00:55:57,080 --> 00:55:58,560
Indiana does have a quad three 
loss. 

1050
00:55:58,680 --> 00:56:00,560
But one of the things you have 
to keep in mind is that 

1051
00:56:00,560 --> 00:56:03,640
generally speaking, the 
tournament selection committee 

1052
00:56:03,640 --> 00:56:06,600
is using the net, the 
calculations from the net about 

1053
00:56:07,040 --> 00:56:10,000
again, how teams have played, 
what their overall efficiency 

1054
00:56:10,000 --> 00:56:12,680
margins have been, what teams 
they've beaten and lost, how the

1055
00:56:12,680 --> 00:56:15,000
computers thought they would 
perform all of that. 

1056
00:56:15,280 --> 00:56:20,000
They use the net as essentially 
a broad based ranking tool. 

1057
00:56:20,840 --> 00:56:23,840
And so if you think about the 
way the NCAA tournament 

1058
00:56:23,840 --> 00:56:28,200
selection process works, there 
are 68 bids, there are 32 bids 

1059
00:56:28,200 --> 00:56:30,880
that go to automatic qualifiers.
So that's the the teams that win

1060
00:56:30,880 --> 00:56:34,240
their conference tournaments and
then there's 36 at large bids. 

1061
00:56:34,520 --> 00:56:40,920
So it's going to be rare for a 
team ranked below like 60 in the

1062
00:56:40,920 --> 00:56:44,360
net to even get into the 
conversation about being in the 

1063
00:56:44,360 --> 00:56:46,960
NCAA tournament because 
according to this ranking 

1064
00:56:46,960 --> 00:56:51,800
system, once you get below 60, 
you're not really a tournament 

1065
00:56:51,800 --> 00:56:54,760
caliber team. 
So even if your quad numbers 

1066
00:56:54,760 --> 00:56:59,040
look relatively the same, you're
you know, unless you're up in 

1067
00:56:59,040 --> 00:57:02,720
that range between like 30 and 
50 as an at large team or 

1068
00:57:02,720 --> 00:57:05,760
better, you're probably not 
going to get considered and the 

1069
00:57:05,760 --> 00:57:07,000
quad numbers don't matter that 
much. 

1070
00:57:07,000 --> 00:57:09,960
I mean we can go through and 
find some examples here like LSU

1071
00:57:10,160 --> 00:57:12,760
has more quad one wins than 
Indiana does. 

1072
00:57:12,800 --> 00:57:14,680
They have certainly fewer quad 
two wins. 

1073
00:57:15,880 --> 00:57:18,880
You can Scroll down and and find
some teams like Georgia Tech, 

1074
00:57:19,160 --> 00:57:21,800
Georgia Tech's four and six in 
quad one and four and seven in 

1075
00:57:21,800 --> 00:57:23,560
quad 2. 
They're not in the NCAA 

1076
00:57:23,560 --> 00:57:26,360
tournament selection picture 
either because they're 122nd in 

1077
00:57:26,360 --> 00:57:28,440
the net. 
So you got this broad cat, you 

1078
00:57:28,440 --> 00:57:31,840
know, container basically and 
you can cut it off, you know, 

1079
00:57:31,840 --> 00:57:34,880
right between 60 and 70 
somewhere in that range. 

1080
00:57:35,160 --> 00:57:37,960
And you can essentially say 
unless there's like a really 

1081
00:57:38,200 --> 00:57:41,800
unique case, we're probably not 
going to consider this team for 

1082
00:57:41,800 --> 00:57:43,400
the NCAA tournament as an AT 
large. 

1083
00:57:43,400 --> 00:57:46,160
So like Iowa is like right on 
the brake line. 

1084
00:57:47,520 --> 00:57:51,120
They're 60th in the net today 
after losing to Illinois, So 

1085
00:57:51,120 --> 00:57:54,080
they're three and eight in quad 
1/5 and 3IN quad two. 

1086
00:57:54,160 --> 00:57:57,040
And what's hurting Iowa is that 
they're four and two in quad 3. 

1087
00:57:57,440 --> 00:58:01,240
So you will occasionally have 
teams that'll be in this range 

1088
00:58:01,520 --> 00:58:05,440
that have like a ridiculously 
good record against quads like 

1089
00:58:05,440 --> 00:58:08,280
Seton Hall's a good example, 
Seton Hall's got 5 quad one wins

1090
00:58:08,280 --> 00:58:10,720
and four quad two wins. 
They're 62nd. 

1091
00:58:10,960 --> 00:58:14,920
They are in a probably a better 
spot right now than Iowa because

1092
00:58:14,920 --> 00:58:18,520
they have two more quad one wins
and only one less quad two win 

1093
00:58:18,560 --> 00:58:20,440
and they also have one less bad 
loss. 

1094
00:58:20,760 --> 00:58:25,360
So that's why when when Hoosier 
3 asks the question about quad 

1095
00:58:25,480 --> 00:58:27,600
numbers being important, they 
are important. 

1096
00:58:27,680 --> 00:58:29,680
But they're only important if 
you're in the conversation to 

1097
00:58:29,680 --> 00:58:32,160
begin with. 
And Indiana is not in the 

1098
00:58:32,160 --> 00:58:36,280
conversation because the overall
metric that would rank them has 

1099
00:58:36,280 --> 00:58:41,160
them so much farther below not 
just Iowa, not just Ohio State, 

1100
00:58:41,400 --> 00:58:43,680
but Michigan State. 
Who's significantly above? 

1101
00:58:46,120 --> 00:58:50,120
Let's scroll through Scotty, 
going back to what was talked 

1102
00:58:50,120 --> 00:58:52,360
about earlier. 
That's why we see so many good 

1103
00:58:52,360 --> 00:58:54,280
teams playing quad four games in
the preseason. 

1104
00:58:54,280 --> 00:58:56,440
Well, you, you see a mix of 
those things. 

1105
00:58:56,440 --> 00:58:58,640
I mean, you're always going to 
have a little bit of a 

1106
00:58:58,640 --> 00:59:02,120
sprinkling of of of good games, 
average games and bad games. 

1107
00:59:02,520 --> 00:59:06,200
The argument for playing the 
quad four games is if you can 

1108
00:59:06,200 --> 00:59:08,480
blow them out, you're going to 
get some benefits from that. 

1109
00:59:08,600 --> 00:59:12,520
But you get just as many 
benefits by beating quad three 

1110
00:59:12,520 --> 00:59:14,920
teams, quad two teams. 
The problem is if you're losing 

1111
00:59:14,920 --> 00:59:18,080
or not winning by nearly enough 
against those quad 2, quad 3 or 

1112
00:59:18,080 --> 00:59:20,720
quad four teams, the computers 
are going to look at you and say

1113
00:59:21,040 --> 00:59:22,960
that really didn't work out 
particularly well. 

1114
00:59:22,960 --> 00:59:26,960
Then again, Indiana had multiple
opportunities against the same 

1115
00:59:26,960 --> 00:59:31,000
types of teams that that, you 
know, other teams were playing 

1116
00:59:31,240 --> 00:59:33,760
where they could have won those 
games by larger margins and they

1117
00:59:33,760 --> 00:59:37,840
just didn't. 
That's ultimately where you get 

1118
00:59:38,000 --> 00:59:39,600
a lot of the differentiation 
here. 

1119
00:59:39,600 --> 00:59:43,800
And and I I think that overall 
in terms of like you're always 

1120
00:59:43,800 --> 00:59:45,800
going to have teams that are in 
the lower quartile, you're 

1121
00:59:45,800 --> 00:59:47,560
always going to have teams that 
are kind of in the middle. 

1122
00:59:47,560 --> 00:59:49,840
You're always going to have 
teams that are up top. 

1123
00:59:49,840 --> 00:59:53,040
It does matter how well you play
against opponents relative to 

1124
00:59:53,040 --> 00:59:55,720
their strength and that does get
adjusted throughout the course 

1125
00:59:55,720 --> 00:59:57,520
of the season. 
That's that's ultimately the 

1126
00:59:57,520 --> 01:00:00,760
point that I'm trying to make. 
OK, Bryce Waltz asks. 

1127
01:00:01,160 --> 01:00:04,920
Say Maryland jumps above 75 in 
the Big 10 tournament to give IU

1128
01:00:04,920 --> 01:00:07,320
another quad one, and IU takes 
two more quad. 

1129
01:00:07,320 --> 01:00:09,120
One wins from Illinois and 
Nebraska. 

1130
01:00:09,960 --> 01:00:13,880
A6, An 8 or 6 or 9 quad, one 
record and six and four quad 2 

1131
01:00:13,880 --> 01:00:16,000
record isn't enough to get in 
the bubble conversation. 

1132
01:00:16,800 --> 01:00:19,440
Probably not at this point, 
again, because Indiana's 

1133
01:00:19,440 --> 01:00:22,960
predictive metrics say that 
they're not a very good team on 

1134
01:00:22,960 --> 01:00:24,520
the aggregate for the whole 
season. 

1135
01:00:24,920 --> 01:00:28,520
Have they played better over the
course of the last two weeks? 

1136
01:00:28,520 --> 01:00:31,000
Yes. 
But that's not how the NCAA 

1137
01:00:31,000 --> 01:00:33,840
Tournament selection committee 
looks at these things. 

1138
01:00:33,840 --> 01:00:36,320
And it's not how the metrics are
designed to evaluate. 

1139
01:00:36,920 --> 01:00:39,160
They are designed to evaluate 
your entire resume. 

1140
01:00:39,360 --> 01:00:42,400
That has been a bedrock 
principle of the NCAA over the 

1141
01:00:42,400 --> 01:00:45,480
course of time, and it hasn't 
really changed much, even with 

1142
01:00:45,480 --> 01:00:48,040
the introduction of the net. 
If anything, I think the full 

1143
01:00:48,040 --> 01:00:51,160
totality of a team has taken 
more into account now than it 

1144
01:00:51,160 --> 01:00:54,280
used to be when there was like a
legitimate set aside That said, 

1145
01:00:54,280 --> 01:00:56,640
well, how has this team played 
in their last ten games or their

1146
01:00:56,640 --> 01:00:58,920
last twelve games? 
They got rid of that because 

1147
01:00:58,920 --> 01:01:01,200
statistically they looked at it 
and said that's actually not 

1148
01:01:01,200 --> 01:01:03,960
telling us a whole lot. 
It's not predicting success in 

1149
01:01:03,960 --> 01:01:06,920
the NCAA tournament. 
A-Team could play really well in

1150
01:01:06,920 --> 01:01:09,960
their last ten games and then 
lose in the NCAA tournament. 

1151
01:01:10,080 --> 01:01:12,000
So why are we really even 
factoring that in? 

1152
01:01:12,000 --> 01:01:14,800
And and again, there was a whole
set of calculations behind the 

1153
01:01:14,800 --> 01:01:17,280
scenes that they used to make 
that decision. 

1154
01:01:18,880 --> 01:01:21,840
OK, some other questions? 
Mason asked. 

1155
01:01:21,840 --> 01:01:24,000
Is there a merit to the argument
that winning versus teams at 

1156
01:01:24,000 --> 01:01:26,320
certain points in the season are
more valuable than others? 

1157
01:01:27,400 --> 01:01:30,080
No. 
That's one of the things about 

1158
01:01:30,200 --> 01:01:32,720
this whole process that I think 
is interesting is that the 

1159
01:01:32,720 --> 01:01:34,760
numbers will adjust as you go 
along. 

1160
01:01:34,760 --> 01:01:39,960
I mean, think about when Indiana
beat Auburn, when, excuse me, 

1161
01:01:39,960 --> 01:01:45,160
when Auburn beat Indiana, 
Indiana was ranked 65th in the 

1162
01:01:45,600 --> 01:01:48,000
in the in Ken Palm. 
And I don't know what they would

1163
01:01:48,000 --> 01:01:49,920
have been at the net in the in 
the net at the time. 

1164
01:01:49,920 --> 01:01:53,040
But you know right now like if 
you look at the way that the 

1165
01:01:53,040 --> 01:01:58,160
numbers have have shifted around
that win if Indiana, let's let's

1166
01:01:58,160 --> 01:02:04,640
say Indiana was 50th in or 60th 
in in the net. 

1167
01:02:04,640 --> 01:02:06,760
At that time the net hadn't been
released yet, but it was using 

1168
01:02:06,760 --> 01:02:13,840
it as an example, that would 
have been a quad two win I think

1169
01:02:13,840 --> 01:02:15,600
or quad one. 
It would have been a quad two 

1170
01:02:15,600 --> 01:02:21,520
win for for Auburn IN being 93rd
in the net. 

1171
01:02:21,880 --> 01:02:25,000
That's shifted over time because
the calculations for Indiana and

1172
01:02:25,000 --> 01:02:26,320
all these other teams have 
changed. 

1173
01:02:26,440 --> 01:02:29,560
So you know this is where a lot 
of the stuff gets baked into the

1174
01:02:29,560 --> 01:02:33,480
system. 
And what I mean by that is when 

1175
01:02:33,480 --> 01:02:35,560
you win or lose against a 
particular team, if their 

1176
01:02:35,560 --> 01:02:39,040
statistical numbers go way down 
or or come way up, you're going 

1177
01:02:39,040 --> 01:02:42,480
to get the knock on benefits 
down the line or the drawbacks 

1178
01:02:42,800 --> 01:02:46,320
of what that team does. 
So essentially, I mean, I I I 

1179
01:02:46,320 --> 01:02:49,120
think the one exception would be
if you play a really good team 

1180
01:02:49,120 --> 01:02:52,320
early in the season and then 
they just collapse, you're not 

1181
01:02:52,320 --> 01:02:55,480
going to get nearly as much 
credit for that win as perhaps 

1182
01:02:55,480 --> 01:02:57,960
you thought you should have 
gotten when you beat them. 

1183
01:02:58,080 --> 01:03:02,840
So like if a team starts off and
they are ranked very highly in 

1184
01:03:02,840 --> 01:03:05,280
the, in Kenpom for instance, 
let's say they're ranked 15th, 

1185
01:03:05,280 --> 01:03:07,600
they lose that game and then 
they just deteriorate over the 

1186
01:03:07,600 --> 01:03:10,000
course of the season. 
You're not going to get the 

1187
01:03:10,000 --> 01:03:12,520
benefits of at the end of the 
season of being able to say, 

1188
01:03:12,520 --> 01:03:15,040
well we beat a top ten team or a
top 15 team. 

1189
01:03:15,560 --> 01:03:17,880
At the end of the day, it'll be 
like, well, we beat a team that 

1190
01:03:17,880 --> 01:03:19,960
finished at this particular 
number. 

1191
01:03:20,440 --> 01:03:21,800
You may say, well, that's not 
fair. 

1192
01:03:21,800 --> 01:03:24,640
But ultimately, again, you're 
trying to judge an entire season

1193
01:03:24,640 --> 01:03:26,880
through the computers and that's
how it ends up working out. 

1194
01:03:29,040 --> 01:03:34,000
Let's see Tony noting going back
to what was brought up earlier, 

1195
01:03:34,000 --> 01:03:35,920
it's a decent method to compare 
and rank teams. 

1196
01:03:35,920 --> 01:03:39,000
It's not coincidence that every 
past national champion has been 

1197
01:03:39,000 --> 01:03:40,920
ranked in the top 30 of 
offensive and defensive 

1198
01:03:40,920 --> 01:03:42,480
efficiency. 
And that's kind of the point is 

1199
01:03:42,480 --> 01:03:45,360
like are there individual 
exceptions that you could point 

1200
01:03:45,360 --> 01:03:47,320
to and say we'll see, that 
doesn't make sense or that 

1201
01:03:47,320 --> 01:03:51,040
doesn't make sense Of course. 
I mean and any any calculation, 

1202
01:03:51,040 --> 01:03:53,440
any statistical approach to 
things is going to have 

1203
01:03:53,440 --> 01:03:55,160
outliers. 
It's going to have things that 

1204
01:03:55,560 --> 01:03:58,160
that maybe don't yet. 
You can point to it and say well

1205
01:03:58,160 --> 01:03:59,560
that's proof that this isn't the
case. 

1206
01:03:59,560 --> 01:04:02,680
But if you take it in aggregate,
and we've got 20 plus years of 

1207
01:04:02,680 --> 01:04:07,840
data now looking at this, it's 
this calculation is really 

1208
01:04:07,840 --> 01:04:10,520
effective at figuring out who 
the best teams in the country 

1209
01:04:10,520 --> 01:04:14,280
actually are. 
And I understand IU fans feeling

1210
01:04:14,280 --> 01:04:19,840
aggrieved by the idea that they 
have an 18 win team and A10 win 

1211
01:04:19,840 --> 01:04:23,320
conference team and yet they're,
you know, in the 90s in the net.

1212
01:04:23,560 --> 01:04:25,000
It's like, well, why aren't we 
getting credit? 

1213
01:04:25,000 --> 01:04:27,280
And it's like the it's not that 
you're not getting credit. 

1214
01:04:27,800 --> 01:04:31,560
It's that the moments that have 
been good for the season have 

1215
01:04:31,560 --> 01:04:34,200
not been good enough compared to
what other teams have done. 

1216
01:04:34,400 --> 01:04:36,440
And even though you've played 
well these last few games and 

1217
01:04:36,440 --> 01:04:38,440
have been rewarded for it 
because your numbers have jumped

1218
01:04:38,440 --> 01:04:42,040
up, your aggregate performance 
on the course of the season has 

1219
01:04:42,040 --> 01:04:44,720
been significantly worse than 
the teams above you. 

1220
01:04:44,960 --> 01:04:49,720
And those are the teams that end
up in the NCAA tournament, you 

1221
01:04:49,720 --> 01:04:51,040
know. 
And that's that's ultimately 

1222
01:04:51,040 --> 01:04:54,840
what it comes down to. 
Mason, They call this comment 

1223
01:04:54,840 --> 01:04:56,120
up. 
It's like IU football finally 

1224
01:04:56,120 --> 01:04:58,600
beating Michigan State, the 
season the Spartans only won 

1225
01:04:58,600 --> 01:05:00,640
four games. 
It can end up being a really 

1226
01:05:00,640 --> 01:05:02,520
good win or just a regular win. 
Absolutely. 

1227
01:05:02,520 --> 01:05:05,680
That was 2016, is what Mason's 
talking about. 

1228
01:05:05,680 --> 01:05:10,400
That looked like a huge win for 
Indiana that year and an ended. 

1229
01:05:10,400 --> 01:05:13,040
I think actually Michigan State 
was 3:00 and 9:00 at the close 

1230
01:05:13,040 --> 01:05:14,840
of that season. 
So you go back and you look at 

1231
01:05:14,840 --> 01:05:16,480
it and it's like, well, it 
seemed like a great one at the 

1232
01:05:16,480 --> 01:05:17,520
time. 
I think Michigan State may have 

1233
01:05:17,520 --> 01:05:21,520
even been ranked, but if you go 
back and look at that at the end

1234
01:05:21,520 --> 01:05:23,240
of the season, it's like that 
actually wasn't that great of a 

1235
01:05:23,240 --> 01:05:26,760
win at all, Honestly. 
Like a lot of the wins in 

1236
01:05:26,760 --> 01:05:29,640
football in that magical 2020 
season came against teams that 

1237
01:05:29,640 --> 01:05:32,480
didn't have good years. 
You know, Penn State finished 

1238
01:05:32,480 --> 01:05:33,960
that season with a losing 
record. 

1239
01:05:34,000 --> 01:05:36,360
Michigan finished that season 
with a losing record. 

1240
01:05:37,120 --> 01:05:40,440
You know, so you you have to 
think about these things not in 

1241
01:05:40,440 --> 01:05:44,400
the moment, but as you get data 
and as you're looking back on 

1242
01:05:44,400 --> 01:05:46,880
the whole season, which is what 
the selection committee is doing

1243
01:05:46,880 --> 01:05:49,560
right now, you have to take the 
whole thing into account. 

1244
01:05:49,720 --> 01:05:51,760
It's not just what happened at 
the time. 

1245
01:05:52,160 --> 01:05:57,840
And and that is ultimately the 
key to keep in mind and as as 

1246
01:05:57,840 --> 01:06:01,680
Tony pointed out was pointing 
out here, it's ten wins in a 

1247
01:06:01,680 --> 01:06:04,760
terrible Big 10 year. 
So it's not just that and and 

1248
01:06:04,760 --> 01:06:09,400
and look, I think the Big 10, 
actually it isn't as bad as it 

1249
01:06:09,400 --> 01:06:12,960
has been at times this year. 
The difference with the Big 10 

1250
01:06:12,960 --> 01:06:14,960
this year is that it just 
doesn't have a whole lot of top 

1251
01:06:14,960 --> 01:06:17,920
end. 
It's got Purdue and it's got 

1252
01:06:17,920 --> 01:06:21,800
Illinois kinda, and then it's 
got a kind of a lot of mush in 

1253
01:06:21,800 --> 01:06:23,880
the middle of it. 
The other thing to keep in mind 

1254
01:06:23,880 --> 01:06:28,720
is that you know Indiana to some
degree their record is a little 

1255
01:06:28,720 --> 01:06:31,000
more impressive because their 
conference strength, the 

1256
01:06:31,000 --> 01:06:35,280
schedule ended up being 4th you 
know out of this out of the 14 

1257
01:06:35,280 --> 01:06:39,280
teams, which essentially means 
Indiana played a tougher than 

1258
01:06:39,280 --> 01:06:40,800
average schedule in the 
conference. 

1259
01:06:40,800 --> 01:06:43,440
The problem is that is relative 
to the strength of the 

1260
01:06:43,440 --> 01:06:47,800
conference. 
So you end up overall dealing 

1261
01:06:47,800 --> 01:06:51,880
with a situation where even 
though Indiana got ten wins in 

1262
01:06:51,880 --> 01:06:54,040
the conference, it's just not 
that impressive in the big 

1263
01:06:54,040 --> 01:06:57,920
scheme of things compared to 
someone rattling off ten wins. 

1264
01:06:57,920 --> 01:07:00,480
And say the Big 12 this year 
where you have a bunch of teams 

1265
01:07:00,760 --> 01:07:03,200
that that have played at a very 
high efficiency number 

1266
01:07:03,200 --> 01:07:06,760
throughout the course of the 
season, Michael points out the 

1267
01:07:06,760 --> 01:07:09,160
Hoosiers are paying for the sins
of bad play earlier this year. 

1268
01:07:09,160 --> 01:07:11,000
That's absolutely true, and it's
a shame. 

1269
01:07:11,560 --> 01:07:14,720
But look, the other thing to 
keep in mind is if Indiana had 

1270
01:07:14,720 --> 01:07:17,840
played well and then lost four 
games in a row at the end of the

1271
01:07:17,840 --> 01:07:20,200
season, they'd be paying for 
that Then too. 

1272
01:07:20,440 --> 01:07:22,920
Again, this is an aggregate 
ranking as opposed to something 

1273
01:07:22,920 --> 01:07:25,800
that's like punishing A-Team for
for XY or Z. 

1274
01:07:26,040 --> 01:07:29,080
It's really all about how did 
you perform over the course of 

1275
01:07:29,080 --> 01:07:33,200
all of these 30 plus games and 
what did that lead to anyway? 

1276
01:07:34,120 --> 01:07:36,320
I think we've run out of 
overall. 

1277
01:07:36,480 --> 01:07:38,880
I did have a question that was 
good that I wanted to go back to

1278
01:07:38,880 --> 01:07:42,360
from from Mason. 
Let me see if I can find it 

1279
01:07:42,360 --> 01:07:45,800
here. 
It was about the situation with 

1280
01:07:45,800 --> 01:07:50,640
the Indiana State Sycamores who 
of course lost yesterday in the 

1281
01:07:50,640 --> 01:07:53,600
Missouri Valley Conference final
which was a shame. 

1282
01:07:53,680 --> 01:07:56,800
Just had a they had a bad game 
at the absolute wrong time. 

1283
01:07:57,880 --> 01:08:01,240
And so the question was how do 
you feel the committee will view

1284
01:08:01,240 --> 01:08:05,760
the resume for 28 when Indiana 
State over an 18 or 19 win power

1285
01:08:05,760 --> 01:08:09,280
16. 
So here's where a couple of 

1286
01:08:09,280 --> 01:08:11,800
different things come into play 
and let me, I'm going to call up

1287
01:08:12,200 --> 01:08:15,680
where Indiana State is in the 
net to start off with And and 

1288
01:08:15,720 --> 01:08:17,920
that'll give us a good baseline 
for comparison. 

1289
01:08:18,880 --> 01:08:22,640
So this is actually a great 
example of what we've been 

1290
01:08:22,640 --> 01:08:24,880
talking about throughout the 
course of this conversation. 

1291
01:08:25,200 --> 01:08:29,680
Indiana State, as you can see 
here, the 29th in the net, which

1292
01:08:29,680 --> 01:08:33,359
is a good spot to be according 
to the internal computers, they 

1293
01:08:33,359 --> 01:08:37,200
are in the top 30. 
They're better than, you know, 

1294
01:08:37,240 --> 01:08:40,000
we we see Mountain, you know 2 
Mountain West teams. 

1295
01:08:40,160 --> 01:08:42,279
Florida Atlantic. 
Another Mountain West team, 

1296
01:08:42,640 --> 01:08:45,359
Nebraska, who's you know 
considered to be safely in the 

1297
01:08:45,359 --> 01:08:47,880
tournament right now. 
But what is it about Indiana 

1298
01:08:47,880 --> 01:08:50,240
State that's, you know good and 
what is it the that's 

1299
01:08:50,240 --> 01:08:53,080
problematic? 
Well, A, the reason why their 

1300
01:08:53,080 --> 01:08:56,560
net is so high is because of how
efficiently they've played over 

1301
01:08:56,560 --> 01:08:59,279
the course of the season. 
They have scored at an 

1302
01:08:59,279 --> 01:09:02,479
incredibly efficient rate. 
They've been, you know, they've,

1303
01:09:02,479 --> 01:09:07,000
they've played a style that has 
given them, you know, a lot of 

1304
01:09:07,000 --> 01:09:09,399
opportunities to score in that. 
They're they're 41st in the 

1305
01:09:09,399 --> 01:09:11,680
country in tempo and they've 
taken advantage of that. 

1306
01:09:11,680 --> 01:09:15,319
They're 23rd in offensive 
efficiency, they're 96th in 

1307
01:09:15,319 --> 01:09:18,640
defensive efficiency. 
They're the top field goal 

1308
01:09:18,640 --> 01:09:20,359
shooting team in the country 
even though that doesn't really 

1309
01:09:20,359 --> 01:09:25,279
matter that much. 
Where they are in good shape is 

1310
01:09:25,279 --> 01:09:27,399
that they have performed well 
away from home. 

1311
01:09:27,399 --> 01:09:30,000
They're nine and four in Rd. 
games, There's six and one in 

1312
01:09:30,000 --> 01:09:31,960
neutral games. 
That does matter to the 

1313
01:09:31,960 --> 01:09:35,840
committee because they want to 
see can a team win games away 

1314
01:09:35,840 --> 01:09:38,000
from home. 
And so you can see you know 

1315
01:09:38,000 --> 01:09:42,720
that's 15 out of the 27 wins 
Indiana State has are in road 

1316
01:09:42,720 --> 01:09:45,120
and neutral sites that is that 
is going to be crucial if 

1317
01:09:45,120 --> 01:09:46,600
they're going to make it in as 
an at large. 

1318
01:09:47,240 --> 01:09:50,359
Where they're hurt is in a 
couple of ways. 

1319
01:09:50,840 --> 01:09:54,920
Hey, they've only got 1 quad one
victory on the whole season and 

1320
01:09:54,920 --> 01:09:58,400
that was the win that they had 
at Bradley way back on the 2nd 

1321
01:09:58,800 --> 01:10:01,920
of December. 
They've got 4 quad two wins, 

1322
01:10:01,920 --> 01:10:06,200
which is nice, but they have a 
quad four loss and that is the 

1323
01:10:06,200 --> 01:10:08,280
one that hurts. 
That loss that they had against 

1324
01:10:08,280 --> 01:10:12,880
Illinois State on the 13th of 
February looks real bad to the 

1325
01:10:12,880 --> 01:10:15,360
committee, not just because they
lost, but because they lost by 

1326
01:10:15,360 --> 01:10:17,720
13 points. 
They had an abnormally bad 

1327
01:10:17,720 --> 01:10:20,080
shooting game. 
I think they had a key injury in

1328
01:10:20,080 --> 01:10:22,080
that game, which might be 
considered a mitigating 

1329
01:10:22,080 --> 01:10:24,760
circumstance. 
They also followed it up with a 

1330
01:10:24,880 --> 01:10:28,240
loss, which is I think still a 
quad two loss. 

1331
01:10:28,240 --> 01:10:30,320
I'll be at a borderline when 
it's Southern Illinois. 

1332
01:10:32,400 --> 01:10:34,360
Ultimately, the big problem 
Michigan State's going to have 

1333
01:10:34,360 --> 01:10:37,360
is they just don't have a 
marquee win. 

1334
01:10:37,880 --> 01:10:40,480
Their best win is that Bradley 
game that I mentioned. 

1335
01:10:40,480 --> 01:10:42,680
They swept Bradley, which was, 
which was nice. 

1336
01:10:43,160 --> 01:10:46,040
They beat Drake at home, but 
they lost to them on the road 

1337
01:10:46,160 --> 01:10:48,360
and then they had a chance to 
beat Drake on a neutral floor 

1338
01:10:48,360 --> 01:10:50,440
and they didn't. 
So the calculus for Indiana 

1339
01:10:50,440 --> 01:10:53,920
State is ultimately going to be,
can the NCAA tournament 

1340
01:10:53,920 --> 01:10:57,760
selection committee look at them
and say, we like you better than

1341
01:10:57,760 --> 01:11:01,160
we like, you know, some of the 
teams below you. 

1342
01:11:01,720 --> 01:11:03,800
And and again this is where 
you're going to run into some 

1343
01:11:03,800 --> 01:11:06,280
issues because like Nevada, even
though they're below Indiana 

1344
01:11:06,280 --> 01:11:10,320
State in the net, they have 7 
quad one wins, Indiana State's 

1345
01:11:10,320 --> 01:11:15,440
got one, Colorado State has five
quad one wins, Indiana State's 

1346
01:11:15,440 --> 01:11:17,600
got one. 
Indiana State gets punished here

1347
01:11:17,600 --> 01:11:21,720
because they just, they didn't 
schedule enough wins or enough 

1348
01:11:21,720 --> 01:11:25,640
games against quad 1 opponents 
in the non conference and they 

1349
01:11:25,640 --> 01:11:27,920
only end up with five total 
games against those teams, which

1350
01:11:27,920 --> 01:11:30,120
is among the lowest numbers that
you're going to have in this 

1351
01:11:30,120 --> 01:11:32,400
whole stretch. 
Now Florida Atlantic is kind of 

1352
01:11:32,400 --> 01:11:34,760
in the same boat. 
They've only got 2 quad one wins

1353
01:11:34,760 --> 01:11:38,160
only played four of those games 
total and Florida Atlantic's got

1354
01:11:38,160 --> 01:11:40,640
two losses. 
The difference is when you go 

1355
01:11:40,640 --> 01:11:45,240
look at Florida Atlantic, they 
have a top end win that 

1356
01:11:45,920 --> 01:11:49,400
demonstrates to the selection 
committee that they can be a 

1357
01:11:49,400 --> 01:11:51,120
team. 
That means serious business in 

1358
01:11:51,120 --> 01:11:54,280
the NCAA tournament. 
They beat Arizona, who's either 

1359
01:11:54,280 --> 01:11:58,120
A1 or A2 seed on a neutral floor
that carries a huge amount of 

1360
01:11:58,120 --> 01:11:59,760
weight. 
They've also got neutral court 

1361
01:11:59,760 --> 01:12:02,320
wins against Virginia Tech, 
Texas A&M and Butler. 

1362
01:12:02,400 --> 01:12:06,880
Those are huge wins. 
So even though certainly Florida

1363
01:12:06,880 --> 01:12:09,920
Atlantic had some struggles, 
they've done a lot of things 

1364
01:12:09,920 --> 01:12:12,640
that the NCAA selection 
committee is going to factor in 

1365
01:12:12,640 --> 01:12:18,720
that says You have shown to us 
that you can compete in the big 

1366
01:12:18,720 --> 01:12:21,960
dance, that you can win a game 
on the road against a good team 

1367
01:12:21,960 --> 01:12:23,880
or at least on a neutral side 
against a good team. 

1368
01:12:24,240 --> 01:12:26,360
That's ultimately where the 
calculus is going to be hurt 

1369
01:12:26,680 --> 01:12:29,480
from Indiana State because they 
just haven't really proven that 

1370
01:12:29,680 --> 01:12:31,560
against another tournament 
caliber team. 

1371
01:12:32,120 --> 01:12:34,240
It's unfair. 
It's disappointing. 

1372
01:12:34,360 --> 01:12:39,120
I I actually think they might 
still get in because ultimately 

1373
01:12:39,840 --> 01:12:42,920
they've they've done a lot of 
work away from home and they've 

1374
01:12:42,920 --> 01:12:45,960
been good in terms of the 
overall metrics that might 

1375
01:12:46,120 --> 01:12:48,560
barely get them into the field. 
It's just going to be a really 

1376
01:12:48,560 --> 01:12:52,240
tight squeeze for Indiana State 
and they really couldn't afford 

1377
01:12:52,600 --> 01:12:55,920
to lose that game against Drake 
in the in the NCAA tournament. 

1378
01:12:57,200 --> 01:13:02,320
Let's see some some good 
questions coming in here. 

1379
01:13:02,320 --> 01:13:04,560
I'm going to take a couple more 
about the tournament process and

1380
01:13:04,560 --> 01:13:07,600
then I'm going to jump over to 
talk about the Big 10 tournament

1381
01:13:07,600 --> 01:13:09,560
which I promised everybody. 
So Scotty asked, is there 

1382
01:13:09,560 --> 01:13:14,040
actually a concrete list of 
factors ranging from most 

1383
01:13:14,040 --> 01:13:16,760
important to least important 
when it comes to the net and or 

1384
01:13:16,760 --> 01:13:21,320
placing teams in the tournament?
Well, for the net again it is 

1385
01:13:21,720 --> 01:13:24,200
where are you beating your 
opponents and how good are the 

1386
01:13:24,200 --> 01:13:28,600
opponents that you're beating 
and how efficient are you 

1387
01:13:28,600 --> 01:13:30,440
playing both offensively and 
defensively. 

1388
01:13:30,440 --> 01:13:33,000
Those are the primary factors 
that we're looking at with the 

1389
01:13:33,000 --> 01:13:35,400
net, and those are pretty 
straightforward. 

1390
01:13:35,400 --> 01:13:39,880
I think if you're if you're 
winning games away from home or 

1391
01:13:39,880 --> 01:13:42,360
on neutral sites, that's going 
to carry more than if you're 

1392
01:13:42,360 --> 01:13:45,760
winning games at home. 
If you are scoring more points 

1393
01:13:45,760 --> 01:13:47,880
than your opponents are 
normally. 

1394
01:13:47,880 --> 01:13:50,760
Allowing teams to score, and if 
you're keeping your opponents 

1395
01:13:50,760 --> 01:13:53,680
from scoring points at the level
that they're used to, those are 

1396
01:13:53,680 --> 01:13:55,280
the most important things with 
the net. 

1397
01:13:55,680 --> 01:13:59,440
Now as far as placing teams in 
the tournament, it's generally 

1398
01:13:59,440 --> 01:14:01,800
like this. 
You've got your net rating, 

1399
01:14:01,800 --> 01:14:05,120
which is kind of your general 
category feature that that 

1400
01:14:05,120 --> 01:14:08,920
allows you to split down how 
good or bad teams are compared 

1401
01:14:08,920 --> 01:14:12,840
to each other using the entire 
corpus of the season as a data 

1402
01:14:12,840 --> 01:14:16,800
point. 
Then after that you've got how 

1403
01:14:16,800 --> 01:14:19,640
many quad one wins do you have? 
How many quad two wins? 

1404
01:14:19,880 --> 01:14:22,000
What's your road and neutral 
record look like? 

1405
01:14:22,280 --> 01:14:25,000
What's the quality of the 
individual wins that you've got?

1406
01:14:25,560 --> 01:14:29,320
Are there mitigating factors? 
Excuse me, due to injury? 

1407
01:14:29,320 --> 01:14:33,640
Hold on one second, too much 
coffee this morning, clearly. 

1408
01:14:34,560 --> 01:14:37,400
Are there mitigating factors 
that have happened throughout 

1409
01:14:37,400 --> 01:14:39,480
the course of the season? 
Did you have a big injury that 

1410
01:14:39,480 --> 01:14:43,840
that took out, you know, your 
team for a while or took you out

1411
01:14:43,840 --> 01:14:46,320
in an individual game? 
Those are the kinds of things 

1412
01:14:46,320 --> 01:14:49,640
that get factored in. 
But you know, what I would argue

1413
01:14:49,640 --> 01:14:52,840
is that most of the time, like 
the beginning factor is going to

1414
01:14:52,840 --> 01:14:55,840
be that net ranking because that
is a representation of on the 

1415
01:14:55,840 --> 01:14:58,520
whole season how good or bad did
a team play? 

1416
01:14:59,440 --> 01:15:02,960
So everything else is kind of 
used to try to analyse 

1417
01:15:02,960 --> 01:15:05,920
individual pieces of each team 
when you're comparing them to 

1418
01:15:05,920 --> 01:15:09,120
each other. 
So think about like proceeding 

1419
01:15:09,120 --> 01:15:10,960
or for selection. 
Seating and selection are two 

1420
01:15:10,960 --> 01:15:13,640
different things. 
The first step is we need to 

1421
01:15:13,640 --> 01:15:16,800
figure out who the best 36 at 
large teams are after we take 

1422
01:15:16,800 --> 01:15:19,920
the automatic bids out. 
Then the second process is we 

1423
01:15:19,920 --> 01:15:25,000
need to evaluate how effective 
each of those teams is so that 

1424
01:15:25,000 --> 01:15:28,040
we can rank them one through 68 
and that's where your seed list 

1425
01:15:28,040 --> 01:15:29,880
comes from. 
And then you have to put them in

1426
01:15:29,880 --> 01:15:31,480
brackets, which is a whole 
another process. 

1427
01:15:31,680 --> 01:15:35,400
So like if you're looking at a 
bunch of teams that compare to 

1428
01:15:35,400 --> 01:15:37,800
each other like the reason 
Houston is considered to be the 

1429
01:15:37,800 --> 01:15:40,360
best team in the country is 
their number one in the net in 

1430
01:15:40,360 --> 01:15:42,960
terms of overall efficiency. 
They're also number one in Ken 

1431
01:15:42,960 --> 01:15:46,320
Palm. 
They have 13 quad one wins and 

1432
01:15:46,320 --> 01:15:49,400
they have no losses in quads 2-3
or four. 

1433
01:15:49,680 --> 01:15:53,120
They have performed at the 
highest level of anybody in the 

1434
01:15:53,120 --> 01:15:54,880
country against the teams that 
they've played. 

1435
01:15:56,960 --> 01:15:59,080
So that's going to factor in. 
They'll probably end up being 

1436
01:15:59,080 --> 01:16:01,320
the number one overall seed 
unless they lose in the Big 12 

1437
01:16:01,320 --> 01:16:03,000
tournament. 
Even then, they might still be 

1438
01:16:03,000 --> 01:16:06,400
the number one overall seed. 
And it's pretty clear right now 

1439
01:16:06,400 --> 01:16:08,560
if you look at things like 
there's three teams that are 

1440
01:16:08,560 --> 01:16:10,440
head and shoulders above 
everybody else in the country 

1441
01:16:10,600 --> 01:16:13,840
based upon not just the net, but
how they performed overall. 

1442
01:16:13,840 --> 01:16:16,320
It's Houston, Purdue and UConn 
in some order. 

1443
01:16:16,680 --> 01:16:19,720
And what order to some degree 
depends on all those other 

1444
01:16:19,720 --> 01:16:22,640
factors that I just mentioned. 
What's you know, who are the 

1445
01:16:22,640 --> 01:16:27,320
wins against cause like as we 
just talked about a quad one win

1446
01:16:27,320 --> 01:16:31,120
can mean anything. 
Like if right now if you beat 

1447
01:16:31,360 --> 01:16:35,440
Samford, Samford, not Stanford, 
but Samford, the Southern 

1448
01:16:35,440 --> 01:16:38,320
Conference team, if you beat 
Samford on the road, that would 

1449
01:16:38,320 --> 01:16:43,400
be a quad one win. 
If you beat Princeton on a 

1450
01:16:43,400 --> 01:16:45,840
neutral site, that would be a 
quad one win. 

1451
01:16:46,120 --> 01:16:52,960
If you beat, if you beat Boise 
State at home or Michigan State 

1452
01:16:52,960 --> 01:16:55,440
at home right now, that's a quad
one win. 

1453
01:16:55,680 --> 01:16:58,800
So Indiana, you know when you 
look at their record right now 

1454
01:16:59,280 --> 01:17:04,120
and you say, oh oh gosh, 
Indiana's got 3 quad one wins. 

1455
01:17:04,120 --> 01:17:07,440
Well, one of those quad one wins
is against Michigan State, who 

1456
01:17:07,440 --> 01:17:11,240
is 25th in the net. 
If they drop any more than 

1457
01:17:11,240 --> 01:17:14,000
suddenly that becomes a quad two
win, not a quad one win. 

1458
01:17:14,160 --> 01:17:17,520
So that's why, again, a lot of 
this is like shifts, almost like

1459
01:17:17,520 --> 01:17:20,680
tectonic plates with how all of 
this operates. 

1460
01:17:20,680 --> 01:17:22,240
And so these are the things to 
keep in mind. 

1461
01:17:24,520 --> 01:17:29,760
Trent asks, before I get to that
question, actually see if 

1462
01:17:29,760 --> 01:17:32,600
there's anything else. 
No, it looks like that was kind 

1463
01:17:32,600 --> 01:17:34,120
of the all we were talking about
for the net. 

1464
01:17:34,320 --> 01:17:35,640
So let's go to the Big 10 
tournament. 

1465
01:17:35,640 --> 01:17:38,920
So first of all, let's call up 
the the route that Indiana would

1466
01:17:38,920 --> 01:17:41,640
have in the Big 10 tournament. 
I appreciate all you folks for 

1467
01:17:41,640 --> 01:17:44,840
sticking around for all of this.
This was all kind of impromptu, 

1468
01:17:44,840 --> 01:17:47,120
but I was bored this morning, so
I figured I would do something. 

1469
01:17:49,200 --> 01:17:53,360
So this is Indiana's route. 
They are going to be the last 

1470
01:17:53,360 --> 01:17:56,160
game on Thursday. 
They'll play the winner of the 

1471
01:17:56,160 --> 01:17:58,920
Michigan Penn State game. 
They've beaten Michigan 

1472
01:17:59,000 --> 01:18:01,200
obviously once this season. 
They've lost to Penn State 

1473
01:18:01,480 --> 01:18:03,760
twice, pretty decisively this 
season. 

1474
01:18:04,160 --> 01:18:07,440
If they win that game, they'll 
go on and they'll play Nebraska.

1475
01:18:07,800 --> 01:18:10,280
And if they win that game, 
they'll play the winner of 

1476
01:18:10,280 --> 01:18:14,200
whoever comes out of Illinois, 
Iowa, Ohio State, that bracket. 

1477
01:18:15,120 --> 01:18:19,720
So that's actually not a good 
draw for an Indiana team that 

1478
01:18:19,720 --> 01:18:22,720
would be trying to play its way 
into the NCAA tournament. 

1479
01:18:23,080 --> 01:18:27,040
So a couple of reasons for that.
First of all, Indiana's going to

1480
01:18:27,040 --> 01:18:30,920
get essentially very little, if 
any, credit for whatever they do

1481
01:18:30,920 --> 01:18:32,560
in the first game that they 
play. 

1482
01:18:32,840 --> 01:18:36,400
And and the reason for that is 
right now Penn State is right 

1483
01:18:36,400 --> 01:18:39,640
around where Indiana is. 
They're 15 and 16 overall. 

1484
01:18:39,880 --> 01:18:42,880
They're 89th in the net. 
They're nowhere close to the 

1485
01:18:42,880 --> 01:18:45,880
NCAA Tournament picture. 
Michigan is obviously worse. 

1486
01:18:46,280 --> 01:18:52,320
Michigan right now is. 
Let's see where they are in the 

1487
01:18:52,800 --> 01:18:57,640
in the aggregate they are 132nd 
in the net. 

1488
01:18:57,640 --> 01:18:59,400
I just looked that up. 
So they're going to get they 

1489
01:18:59,400 --> 01:19:01,640
would get even less credit and 
to some degree they could 

1490
01:19:01,640 --> 01:19:05,800
actually see their net ranking 
decrease if they didn't blow 

1491
01:19:05,800 --> 01:19:07,760
Michigan out by a pretty wide 
margin. 

1492
01:19:08,680 --> 01:19:11,320
They don't even get credit if 
they beat Penn State on a 

1493
01:19:11,320 --> 01:19:14,960
neutral floor for a quad one 
win, because they'd have to have

1494
01:19:14,960 --> 01:19:19,920
Penn State in with a net of 50 
or above in order to get a quad 

1495
01:19:19,920 --> 01:19:23,200
one win. 
So a win in that game is not 

1496
01:19:23,200 --> 01:19:25,880
going to help Indiana 
necessarily at all towards 

1497
01:19:25,880 --> 01:19:27,360
getting into the NCAA 
tournament. 

1498
01:19:27,360 --> 01:19:31,880
So then you go to Nebraska. 
So you know, would beating 

1499
01:19:31,880 --> 01:19:34,160
Nebraska help? 
Yeah, it would. 

1500
01:19:34,560 --> 01:19:37,960
Nebraska's 37th in the net. 
If you play them on a neutral 

1501
01:19:37,960 --> 01:19:40,040
floor, that is another quad one 
win. 

1502
01:19:40,920 --> 01:19:44,600
And then if you go on and let's 
say in the ideal world, you're 

1503
01:19:44,600 --> 01:19:47,200
playing Illinois, who's 15th, 
that's a chance that another 

1504
01:19:47,200 --> 01:19:49,440
quad one win. 
But the two big issues that 

1505
01:19:49,440 --> 01:19:52,920
Indiana's going to have with all
of this are are the following A 

1506
01:19:54,400 --> 01:19:58,920
unless Indiana blows out all of 
the teams that they play, it's 

1507
01:19:58,920 --> 01:20:02,480
probably not going to have a 
huge impact on Indiana's overall

1508
01:20:02,480 --> 01:20:04,760
net. 
Because, you know, if they beat 

1509
01:20:05,320 --> 01:20:08,880
Nebraska on a neutral floor by 
like 2 points or three points. 

1510
01:20:09,400 --> 01:20:11,640
The computer's going to be like,
that's nice, Maybe we maybe 

1511
01:20:11,640 --> 01:20:13,520
we'll bump you up two or three 
spots. 

1512
01:20:14,040 --> 01:20:16,000
Other teams will drop 
correspondingly. 

1513
01:20:16,320 --> 01:20:19,680
But the idea that I use going to
take these huge leaps in the net

1514
01:20:19,840 --> 01:20:23,680
to get them up into the 60s or 
even into the the 70s doesn't 

1515
01:20:23,680 --> 01:20:26,680
seem really plausible. 
Like, Indiana's season is 

1516
01:20:26,680 --> 01:20:30,840
represented in the net right now
and you know it's like it to 

1517
01:20:30,840 --> 01:20:32,520
some degree. 
It's like even though they beat 

1518
01:20:32,520 --> 01:20:35,000
Michigan State, who's 
significantly above them in the 

1519
01:20:35,000 --> 01:20:38,560
net and in Ken Palm, they didn't
get as big of a bump as I think 

1520
01:20:38,560 --> 01:20:41,160
some people want simply because 
A it was a one point win, B it 

1521
01:20:41,160 --> 01:20:46,040
was at home and C it's it's a 
win that according to the 

1522
01:20:46,040 --> 01:20:48,720
computers, because it was only 
one point and it was at home, 

1523
01:20:48,960 --> 01:20:50,800
doesn't look that overall 
impressive. 

1524
01:20:51,320 --> 01:20:53,640
And I would actually argue that 
that's the case. 

1525
01:20:53,640 --> 01:20:56,520
It was a nice win, but it wasn't
one of those wins that suddenly 

1526
01:20:56,520 --> 01:20:58,640
says this team is ready for the 
NCAA tournament. 

1527
01:20:58,640 --> 01:21:01,480
When Mike Woodson says in the 
post game press conference that 

1528
01:21:01,480 --> 01:21:04,600
we've played as well as anybody 
over the last four games in the 

1529
01:21:04,600 --> 01:21:07,360
nation, AI would debate that 
point a bit. 

1530
01:21:08,000 --> 01:21:13,360
They've certainly played better 
relative to expectations from 

1531
01:21:13,360 --> 01:21:15,200
earlier in the season. 
It's significantly better. 

1532
01:21:15,200 --> 01:21:17,800
But in terms of like making a 
dent in their overall 

1533
01:21:17,800 --> 01:21:22,080
statistical profile, not really.
You know, a one point win at 

1534
01:21:22,080 --> 01:21:25,120
home against Michigan State, a 
four point win at home against 

1535
01:21:25,120 --> 01:21:27,480
Wisconsin, Those aren't playing 
as well as anybody in the 

1536
01:21:27,480 --> 01:21:28,960
country. 
You beat those teams by 20 or 

1537
01:21:28,960 --> 01:21:31,520
25. 
That's playing like one of the 

1538
01:21:31,520 --> 01:21:34,080
best teams in the country, and 
that's what Indiana would have 

1539
01:21:34,080 --> 01:21:37,640
to do to make any kind of 
movement in their net ranking in

1540
01:21:37,640 --> 01:21:39,840
the Big 10 tournament. 
It's certainly possible they 

1541
01:21:39,840 --> 01:21:41,800
could do so. 
We saw them play really well at 

1542
01:21:41,800 --> 01:21:44,640
Minnesota and we saw them play 
really well in that second-half 

1543
01:21:44,640 --> 01:21:46,640
against Maryland. 
So it's not out of the question 

1544
01:21:46,920 --> 01:21:48,680
that they could blow out Penn 
State. 

1545
01:21:48,840 --> 01:21:51,080
It would be a big turn about 
from how they played Penn State 

1546
01:21:51,080 --> 01:21:52,960
up to this point if that's who 
they end up playing. 

1547
01:21:53,200 --> 01:21:55,800
But they're probably, unless 
they're going out and winning 

1548
01:21:55,800 --> 01:21:58,320
those games by 30, it's just not
going to make that much of a 

1549
01:21:58,320 --> 01:22:01,720
difference. 
The second issue is that what 

1550
01:22:01,720 --> 01:22:05,640
we've seen over the course of 
the last several years is 

1551
01:22:06,400 --> 01:22:12,360
ultimately the tournament 
conference. 

1552
01:22:12,360 --> 01:22:16,240
Tournament wins are not factored
in that much. 

1553
01:22:16,320 --> 01:22:18,920
This is actually something that 
came up earlier and losses too, 

1554
01:22:18,920 --> 01:22:20,280
For that matter. 
This was something that was 

1555
01:22:20,280 --> 01:22:25,320
discussed when IU women lost in 
that game to Michigan. 

1556
01:22:26,080 --> 01:22:28,720
A lot of people were like, oh, 
well, that that guarantees that 

1557
01:22:28,720 --> 01:22:31,600
Indiana's not going to host a 
first and second round and all 

1558
01:22:31,600 --> 01:22:33,360
of this. 
And it's like pump the brakes on

1559
01:22:33,360 --> 01:22:35,280
that a little bit. 
Because what we generally see 

1560
01:22:35,280 --> 01:22:39,520
out of the NCAA tournament 
selection committee is they will

1561
01:22:39,960 --> 01:22:47,560
not often let an entire body of 
work be adjusted solely because 

1562
01:22:47,560 --> 01:22:49,160
of what happens in a conference 
tournament. 

1563
01:22:49,160 --> 01:22:51,480
We have had exceptions. 
You know, there was that famous 

1564
01:22:51,480 --> 01:22:56,680
year where UConn was like barely
on the bubble and won the five 

1565
01:22:56,680 --> 01:22:59,200
games in five games in the In 
the Big East tournament and 

1566
01:22:59,200 --> 01:23:00,640
ended up as a three seed. 
That was, I think, an 

1567
01:23:00,640 --> 01:23:02,680
overreaction from the tournament
selection committee. 

1568
01:23:02,680 --> 01:23:04,960
It ended up being an accurate 
one since they won against the 

1569
01:23:05,160 --> 01:23:09,200
national title that year. 
But you know, we don't often see

1570
01:23:09,200 --> 01:23:12,160
situations where tournament 
losses are going to hurt you 

1571
01:23:12,160 --> 01:23:14,480
that badly if you've had a good 
season overall. 

1572
01:23:15,720 --> 01:23:18,280
For teams that are right on the 
borderline, they can make a bit 

1573
01:23:18,280 --> 01:23:20,600
of a difference. 
But as we saw with Indiana men's

1574
01:23:20,600 --> 01:23:25,760
basketball a couple of years ago
when they were surprisingly able

1575
01:23:25,760 --> 01:23:28,640
to beat Illinois in the Big 10 
tournament and then came within 

1576
01:23:28,640 --> 01:23:31,960
a whisker of beating Iowa in the
Big 10 tournament, You know, 

1577
01:23:31,960 --> 01:23:36,200
people thought that those two 
games, the win against Illinois 

1578
01:23:36,200 --> 01:23:39,560
in particular, had safely put IU
into the NCAA tournament field. 

1579
01:23:39,840 --> 01:23:42,920
And then selection Sunday came 
around and Indiana was in the 

1580
01:23:42,920 --> 01:23:46,280
play in game. 
And, you know, so you have to 

1581
01:23:46,280 --> 01:23:49,280
keep in mind that a lot the NCAA
selection committee has 

1582
01:23:49,440 --> 01:23:53,120
gradually moved away from over 
emphasizing what goes on in the 

1583
01:23:53,280 --> 01:23:56,320
in the tournament, the 
conference tournaments, except 

1584
01:23:56,320 --> 01:24:01,320
for clear opportunities to 
differentiate between teams that

1585
01:24:01,320 --> 01:24:03,760
are right on the borderline and 
what they're able to do. 

1586
01:24:03,760 --> 01:24:07,360
So like a bubble team, Iowa is a
great example of this. 

1587
01:24:07,560 --> 01:24:13,040
You know, Iowa as a bubble team 
has to beat Ohio State and 

1588
01:24:13,040 --> 01:24:16,960
probably has to beat Illinois. 
But I think if they do that, if 

1589
01:24:16,960 --> 01:24:19,080
they can beat Illinois on a 
neutral floor, especially after 

1590
01:24:19,080 --> 01:24:22,400
having lost to them twice in 
close succession, maybe the NCAA

1591
01:24:22,400 --> 01:24:26,480
selection committee says that 
Iowa team should get in because,

1592
01:24:26,480 --> 01:24:28,840
you know, that was just enough 
to differentiate themselves 

1593
01:24:28,840 --> 01:24:33,240
from, say, if Seton Hall. 
Should Seton Hall lose early in 

1594
01:24:33,240 --> 01:24:35,440
the Big East Conference 
tournament, That's the kind of 

1595
01:24:35,440 --> 01:24:39,000
thing you got to keep in mind 
with all of this is that, you 

1596
01:24:39,000 --> 01:24:44,280
know, for Indiana to get into 
the conversation about the NCAA 

1597
01:24:44,280 --> 01:24:46,560
tournament, they would have to 
blow out pretty much every 

1598
01:24:46,560 --> 01:24:50,080
opponent on the way. 
And the problem is, because the 

1599
01:24:50,080 --> 01:24:54,520
Big 10 tournament ends on a 
Sunday, the NCAA selection 

1600
01:24:54,520 --> 01:24:56,760
committee generally kind of 
disregards what happens on 

1601
01:24:56,760 --> 01:25:01,120
Sundays because they don't have 
time to calculate well, what if 

1602
01:25:01,120 --> 01:25:03,920
this team beats this? 
You know, like if Indiana was 

1603
01:25:03,920 --> 01:25:06,320
playing Purdue in the Big 10 
tournament final? 

1604
01:25:07,640 --> 01:25:10,000
The the idea that you're going 
to be, you can't really factor 

1605
01:25:10,000 --> 01:25:13,720
that in effectively the way that
the NCAA S there does their 

1606
01:25:13,720 --> 01:25:16,480
selection and seating process, 
If Indiana wins that game, they 

1607
01:25:16,480 --> 01:25:19,520
become the automatic bid. 
If they lose that game, the the 

1608
01:25:19,640 --> 01:25:21,280
tournament selection goodies 
probably like, look, we've 

1609
01:25:21,280 --> 01:25:23,080
already got the corpus of your 
work here. 

1610
01:25:23,080 --> 01:25:26,480
We're going to have to judge you
based on that and the idea that 

1611
01:25:26,720 --> 01:25:30,840
you would factor in a game that 
happened right at the tail end 

1612
01:25:30,840 --> 01:25:34,200
of of the selection process. 
It would be nice if that got 

1613
01:25:34,200 --> 01:25:35,680
factored in. 
I'm just telling you all that's 

1614
01:25:35,680 --> 01:25:39,640
not generally how it works. 
So I don't see a route. 

1615
01:25:39,760 --> 01:25:43,160
I actually think Indiana got a 
bad draw for a team that needed 

1616
01:25:43,160 --> 01:25:47,520
to rack up wins against good 
teams going, you know, trying to

1617
01:25:47,520 --> 01:25:49,680
get themselves into the NCAA 
selection picture because 

1618
01:25:49,680 --> 01:25:51,480
they're not going to get any 
credit for beating either Penn 

1619
01:25:51,480 --> 01:25:53,560
State or Michigan. 
They're not going to get a huge 

1620
01:25:53,560 --> 01:25:55,040
amount of credit for beating 
Nebraska. 

1621
01:25:55,440 --> 01:25:58,000
They're only going to have that 
game and you hope that they play

1622
01:25:58,000 --> 01:26:00,440
Illinois because you want to 
play as good A-Team as possible.

1623
01:26:00,440 --> 01:26:04,160
So you have to play Illinois, 
beat them handily and hope that 

1624
01:26:04,760 --> 01:26:07,320
like doomsday scenarios happen 
for a bunch of other teams. 

1625
01:26:07,320 --> 01:26:09,720
And even then, I just don't 
think it's going to elevate 

1626
01:26:09,720 --> 01:26:12,640
Indiana's net based upon what 
they've done all season to the 

1627
01:26:12,640 --> 01:26:14,400
point that they would be in the 
conversation. 

1628
01:26:16,360 --> 01:26:19,920
So, you know, like Tony notes, 
isn't the lowest net ranked team

1629
01:26:19,920 --> 01:26:22,400
to ever get an at large bid in 
the low fifties, high 60s. 

1630
01:26:22,440 --> 01:26:24,760
I mean, we've only had the net 
for about 6 years. 

1631
01:26:24,760 --> 01:26:26,520
But yes, it's somewhere in that 
range. 

1632
01:26:27,240 --> 01:26:30,360
And even that was like a special
situation where that team had a 

1633
01:26:30,360 --> 01:26:33,120
lot of high end wins, if I 
remember correctly. 

1634
01:26:33,120 --> 01:26:35,640
They just didn't have a lot of 
depth to their resume. 

1635
01:26:38,200 --> 01:26:40,920
Charles James said for context 
and how meaningless Ken Palm is 

1636
01:26:40,920 --> 01:26:44,800
for predictive purposes, 2012, 
2013, Ken Palm said IE would win

1637
01:26:44,800 --> 01:26:46,400
it all. 
Did we win it all in 2013? 

1638
01:26:46,720 --> 01:26:50,120
See, I don't I first of all, I 
don't believe that that's 

1639
01:26:50,120 --> 01:26:54,280
accurate. 
If you look at the way that it 

1640
01:26:54,400 --> 01:26:58,640
the things were calculated that 
season, I'd have to go back and 

1641
01:26:58,640 --> 01:27:00,040
look at the pre tournament 
numbers. 

1642
01:27:00,040 --> 01:27:02,880
Like Indiana was not an 
overwhelming favorite and when 

1643
01:27:02,880 --> 01:27:06,680
the season closed up, Indiana 
was indeed ranked behind 

1644
01:27:06,680 --> 01:27:10,200
Louisville who did win the NCAA 
tournament despite what the NCAA

1645
01:27:10,200 --> 01:27:13,960
will tell you and they were 
ranked right around some of 

1646
01:27:13,960 --> 01:27:17,040
those other areas. 
I think it's important to keep 

1647
01:27:17,040 --> 01:27:21,360
in mind that with all of these, 
the net with Ken Palm, you know,

1648
01:27:21,880 --> 01:27:25,480
are they 100% accurate way of 
predicting everything right down

1649
01:27:25,480 --> 01:27:27,120
to score? 
No, of course not. 

1650
01:27:27,440 --> 01:27:31,960
However, they are on aggregate a
lot more accurate than most 

1651
01:27:31,960 --> 01:27:34,520
people want to give them credit 
for because people tend to want 

1652
01:27:34,520 --> 01:27:37,520
to poke holes in these things 
again when it doesn't suit their

1653
01:27:37,520 --> 01:27:40,680
particular agenda. 
But if you look at it 

1654
01:27:40,680 --> 01:27:43,760
expansively, you generally have 
a really good idea of who the 

1655
01:27:43,760 --> 01:27:45,360
top teams are and what they can 
do. 

1656
01:27:45,360 --> 01:27:48,160
And you've also got the whole 
idea that just because the one 

1657
01:27:48,160 --> 01:27:50,960
team is ranked above another, 
there are individual match up 

1658
01:27:50,960 --> 01:27:55,600
items that might make it so that
the underdog has a better chance

1659
01:27:55,800 --> 01:27:57,960
than you might think. 
Look looking slowly at the 

1660
01:27:57,960 --> 01:27:59,680
numbers. 
The game yesterday, Indiana 

1661
01:27:59,680 --> 01:28:01,600
versus Michigan State was a good
example of that. 

1662
01:28:02,240 --> 01:28:04,560
Should Indiana have gotten more 
credit for beating a team that 

1663
01:28:04,560 --> 01:28:07,760
was only favored by three? 
Probably not. 

1664
01:28:07,880 --> 01:28:10,880
But you have to keep in mind 
that the the various factors 

1665
01:28:10,880 --> 01:28:13,600
that went into that particular 
game, including where it was 

1666
01:28:13,600 --> 01:28:17,600
played, have a big effect. 
And to use 2013 as an example, 

1667
01:28:17,960 --> 01:28:21,120
Indiana was one of the most 
efficient offensive teams in the

1668
01:28:21,120 --> 01:28:23,000
country. 
They played one of the most 

1669
01:28:23,000 --> 01:28:25,600
efficient defensive teams in the
country in the Sweet 16 in 

1670
01:28:25,600 --> 01:28:28,960
Syracuse, and the defense won 
that game. 

1671
01:28:29,600 --> 01:28:32,040
So that's that's the kind of 
thing you got to keep in mind is

1672
01:28:32,040 --> 01:28:35,080
that a lot of these numbers and 
a lot of the way that the 

1673
01:28:35,080 --> 01:28:38,600
predictives work, you can find 
individual games where they 

1674
01:28:38,600 --> 01:28:41,520
don't accurately predict what 
ended up happening. 

1675
01:28:41,960 --> 01:28:45,160
But it's generally a good 
overall measure of the relative 

1676
01:28:45,160 --> 01:28:52,160
strength of the teams. 
Anyway, couple of other items 

1677
01:28:52,160 --> 01:28:55,040
here real quick. 
Yeah, Charles noted. 

1678
01:28:55,040 --> 01:28:56,720
I doubt the highest ranked team 
has won the national 

1679
01:28:56,720 --> 01:28:58,480
championship often, but they're 
in the mix and most all the 

1680
01:28:58,480 --> 01:29:00,360
winners have been in the matrix 
top 2025. 

1681
01:29:00,360 --> 01:29:01,560
That's exactly what I was 
saying. 

1682
01:29:03,160 --> 01:29:05,760
Someone noted here we need to 
hire a full time analyst that 

1683
01:29:05,760 --> 01:29:07,840
can figure this out and manage 
our analytic ranking. 

1684
01:29:07,840 --> 01:29:10,000
So here's the thing, I know 
people have complained about 

1685
01:29:10,000 --> 01:29:14,000
this with IU. 
IUI think actually did a pretty 

1686
01:29:14,000 --> 01:29:18,120
good job of scheduling this year
in relation to what the metrics 

1687
01:29:18,120 --> 01:29:21,040
were going to be. 
You know the the problem Indiana

1688
01:29:21,040 --> 01:29:23,680
has run into in the past is that
they, you know, in the Korean 

1689
01:29:23,680 --> 01:29:26,000
era and a little bit in the 
Archie era, they scheduled way 

1690
01:29:26,000 --> 01:29:29,960
too many games against 300 and 
and below ranked teams in 

1691
01:29:29,960 --> 01:29:33,920
Kenpalm and then didn't beat 
them by 25 or 30 points. 

1692
01:29:33,920 --> 01:29:36,360
That's kind of the trade off. 
You have to win those games by 

1693
01:29:36,360 --> 01:29:40,240
large margins for it to matter. 
And you know we talked at the 

1694
01:29:40,240 --> 01:29:42,800
beginning of the season about 
how we really liked Indiana's 

1695
01:29:42,800 --> 01:29:46,080
non conference schedule provided
they could beat one of the big 

1696
01:29:46,080 --> 01:29:47,960
three teams that they had on the
schedule. 

1697
01:29:48,240 --> 01:29:51,400
They needed to beat a 
Connecticut and Auburn or Kansas

1698
01:29:51,840 --> 01:29:54,400
and they didn't do that. 
And then what made it worse was 

1699
01:29:54,400 --> 01:29:58,720
that the mid level teams, the 
teams between like 100 and 250 

1700
01:29:58,760 --> 01:30:01,440
or 100 and 300 that Indiana 
scheduled, they just didn't beat

1701
01:30:01,440 --> 01:30:05,000
by a sufficient amount of points
to look impressive to the 

1702
01:30:05,000 --> 01:30:07,560
computers and that ultimately 
when you compare it to what 

1703
01:30:07,560 --> 01:30:10,800
other teams did, that's why you 
end up with the situation that 

1704
01:30:10,800 --> 01:30:14,360
you're in. 
So so anyway, going back to 

1705
01:30:14,360 --> 01:30:17,600
something somebody said about 
that, we'll end with this 

1706
01:30:17,600 --> 01:30:19,080
comment. 
We've gone long enough here. 

1707
01:30:19,560 --> 01:30:22,080
Michael says looks like the NIT 
might be the future but still 

1708
01:30:22,080 --> 01:30:24,000
pleased the team didn't throw in
the towel in the last four 

1709
01:30:24,000 --> 01:30:25,200
games. 
Yeah, absolutely. 

1710
01:30:26,240 --> 01:30:30,520
You know, I I think at this 
point it would be surprising if 

1711
01:30:30,520 --> 01:30:33,840
Indiana were, you know, anywhere
but the NIT. 

1712
01:30:33,840 --> 01:30:37,280
But I think they've played their
way into the NIT with the way 

1713
01:30:37,280 --> 01:30:40,160
that they've played these last 
four games, You know now they 

1714
01:30:40,160 --> 01:30:45,560
look like a team that's kind of 
on the fringe of the the 

1715
01:30:45,560 --> 01:30:48,080
tournament discussion, which is 
what you need to be to get into 

1716
01:30:48,080 --> 01:30:52,240
the NIT because that's that's 
the next group of games 

1717
01:30:52,240 --> 01:30:54,600
essentially. 
If you take the way Indiana's 

1718
01:30:54,600 --> 01:30:58,880
played, let's say, let's use, 
let's use February 25th as the 

1719
01:30:58,880 --> 01:31:03,240
cut off point and you rank them 
in aggregate against all the 

1720
01:31:03,240 --> 01:31:05,240
other teams in the country and 
how they've played in those 

1721
01:31:05,240 --> 01:31:08,280
games. 
So since that Sunday, Indiana 

1722
01:31:08,280 --> 01:31:12,000
has performed pretty well. 
All told, they're 23rd in the 

1723
01:31:12,000 --> 01:31:14,480
country. 
Their defense has been really, 

1724
01:31:14,480 --> 01:31:16,960
really good. 
They're they're 27th in the 

1725
01:31:16,960 --> 01:31:19,360
country in defensive efficiency 
during that time period. 

1726
01:31:19,360 --> 01:31:22,480
According to Torvick, they're 
53rd in offensive efficiency. 

1727
01:31:23,520 --> 01:31:26,040
They've and they've done all 
that despite turning the ball 

1728
01:31:26,040 --> 01:31:28,080
over a bunch. 
They've done all that despite 

1729
01:31:28,080 --> 01:31:30,640
not hitting free throws, you 
know, So you could even argue 

1730
01:31:30,640 --> 01:31:32,520
that they've kind of even 
underperformed. 

1731
01:31:32,520 --> 01:31:36,000
And most of where Indiana's been
good the last few games has been

1732
01:31:36,320 --> 01:31:38,560
they've they've shot the ball 
incredibly well. 

1733
01:31:38,560 --> 01:31:40,720
Their effective field goal 
percentage over the last four 

1734
01:31:40,720 --> 01:31:44,600
games is 60.3%, which is 13th in
the country. 

1735
01:31:45,000 --> 01:31:47,720
Now, if Indiana keeps playing 
that way, if they shoot at that,

1736
01:31:47,800 --> 01:31:50,680
if they if they have a 60% 
effective field goal percentage 

1737
01:31:51,000 --> 01:31:53,520
and they can play defense as 
well as they've played, they 

1738
01:31:53,520 --> 01:31:56,520
could win the Big 10 tournament 
and get into the NCAA tournament

1739
01:31:56,520 --> 01:31:59,840
with the automatic bid. 
They'd probably be like a 12 

1740
01:31:59,840 --> 01:32:06,320
seed if that happened, maybe an 
11 seed, but but it's absolutely

1741
01:32:06,320 --> 01:32:08,880
still on the table if they 
continue to play this well. 

1742
01:32:09,120 --> 01:32:10,480
So that will be interesting to 
see. 

1743
01:32:11,120 --> 01:32:12,720
It's just looking at it in 
aggregate. 

1744
01:32:12,880 --> 01:32:17,800
This is an NIT team at best this
year and I think barring a loss 

1745
01:32:17,800 --> 01:32:21,360
to Penn State in that first game
in the in the Big 10 tournament,

1746
01:32:21,440 --> 01:32:23,360
I think that they've got a 
really good chance of being in 

1747
01:32:23,360 --> 01:32:27,040
the NIT, maybe not hosting a 
game, but certainly being in the

1748
01:32:27,040 --> 01:32:29,560
mix as far as the overall number
of teams that are that are 

1749
01:32:29,560 --> 01:32:32,160
selected for that. 
So we'll see what happens with 

1750
01:32:32,160 --> 01:32:34,880
all of that. 
Anyway, I appreciate all the 

1751
01:32:34,880 --> 01:32:37,080
comments and thoughts and all of
you who tuned in at various 

1752
01:32:37,080 --> 01:32:38,200
times throughout the course of 
this. 

1753
01:32:38,200 --> 01:32:42,760
I know a lot of this was kind of
complicated and I know some of 

1754
01:32:42,760 --> 01:32:44,240
you are still not convinced by 
the math. 

1755
01:32:44,320 --> 01:32:46,440
That's fine. 
We'll just agree to disagree on 

1756
01:32:46,440 --> 01:32:48,440
that. 
But hopefully this was helpful 

1757
01:32:48,440 --> 01:32:52,200
to you both in understanding how
the metrics work and also in 

1758
01:32:52,200 --> 01:32:55,880
understanding how the Big 10 
tournament might go and what 

1759
01:32:55,880 --> 01:33:00,080
Indiana, you know, probably can 
and can't expect out of their 

1760
01:33:00,080 --> 01:33:02,160
performance there. 
We'll see what happens in 

1761
01:33:02,160 --> 01:33:04,800
Minneapolis. 
Be sure to tune in to all the 

1762
01:33:04,840 --> 01:33:09,200
other shows on the back home 
network assembly call radio 

1763
01:33:09,200 --> 01:33:12,480
coming up later on this week. 
We'll have the Crimson Cast, 

1764
01:33:12,480 --> 01:33:14,800
women's basketball show. 
I think we'll be back on Friday 

1765
01:33:15,280 --> 01:33:17,600
and X's and Joe's going to be 
coming back at some point. 

1766
01:33:17,600 --> 01:33:19,040
Be sure to catch up on those 
episodes. 

1767
01:33:19,040 --> 01:33:22,120
Crimson Cast will also be back a
bit later as we'll talk more 

1768
01:33:22,120 --> 01:33:26,800
about what's going on with IU 
basketball and see how things 

1769
01:33:26,800 --> 01:33:29,520
set as the regular season has 
come to a close. 

1770
01:33:29,800 --> 01:33:32,280
My thanks to all you folks. 
Once again, we'll catch you on 

1771
01:33:32,280 --> 01:33:34,360
the flip side. 
Bring back the Bison. 

1772
01:33:34,360 --> 01:33:34,920
So long, everybody.