You're listening to the Back Home Network presented by Home
Field Apparel. Welcome back to Crimson Cast
Galen Clavio flying solo tonight.
It is Friday, November 29th and hard to believe, but Indiana's
regular season in football comes to a close tomorrow about 11:00,
maybe earlier as Indiana hosts Purdue in the old Oak and Bucket
game, the first ever night bucket game and a game that will
be a bit chilly out there. For those of you who are
listening to this day of, I hope that you're on route to Memorial
Stadium or maybe sitting in the parking lot listening if you're
listening beforehand. Hi.
We're going to talk. About the match up and a couple
of items surrounding and not a long podcast but I wanted to get
a preview in before the game actually kicked and so.
That's what this one. Is so we'll dive into that here
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Let's go ahead and dive into. The numbers for this.
One of course, Indiana coming into this game is a.
Heavy favorite. As of I think today they were a
29 point favorite or a 29 1/2 point favorite and some of the
statistical measures actually indicate that might be light.
Indiana comes into this Game 10 and one Purdue.
Comes into the game. One and 10.
It's a pretty big disparity, just pretty much across the
board. Between these two teams.
In terms of the way they played so far, this.
Season, and it's one of those. Games that on paper.
Indiana should win in a. A dog walk, but you always worry
a little bit, not just because of the rivalry.
And you know, we saw that earlier today on Friday as Ole
Miss struggled to put away a really bad.
Mississippi State team, Of course, Ole Miss themselves may
not be. That great.
We've pretty much established that over the course of the last
couple of weeks, but you always worry in rivalry.
Games and you always worry that you know a team.
Is going to play out of their. Minds that.
You're going to make plays if they don't normally.
Make and. You know, then you struggle as
as as a. Team trying to to accomplish
something I I've been. Worried about that all?
Week and yet I keep getting reminded by friends of mine.
By people who pay. Attention to.
The the advanced. Statistics like Taylor Lehman,
who can't join us on the. Podcast but.
Certainly has done all the number crunching.
This is a really bad Purdue team.
Like historically bad. Bill Connolly, the godfather of
S&P Plus, referred to them a couple of weeks ago as either
the worst or the second worst. Purdue team since.
World War 2, that's pretty heavy.
We've seen some bad Purdue teams.
We've seen. More bad Indiana teams in that
time, but. Yeah, Purdue's just.
Having one of those. Seasons where nothing.
Went right and you just go down the the.
Board Purdue's biggest weakness is their defense.
They are 123rd in. The country and EPA.
Per play allowed, they're 120. 5th in the country and allowed.
Past success rate 100 and. 13th in a loud.
Rush Success. Rate they're allowing
conversions on 82.6% of of down sets.
They. Allow a ton of line yards.
Per Rush they allow a ton. Of third down success I think.
Teams are. Almost 50% against.
Purdue in 3rd. Down situations this year and of
course, Indiana. 'S been great offensively.
That has been. Despite the struggles.
That Indiana's had. Over the last couple of.
Of weeks offensively, offense has been Indiana.
Strength for the entire. Season and so you look at the
numbers and and I'm going. To call them up here for those
of you who are. Watching on on the on.
YouTube, you're going to. Get a chance to see what
Taylor's come up with. Here.
On bite sized bison, which you need to subscribe to, but we've
been. Using these pretty consistently.
And you can. See.
The purple numbers are bad, the green numbers are good.
And you can see Indiana's got a. Lot of green on offense.
Purdue has all purple. And on.
You know when you flip it around.
Purdue has been not. The worst team in the.
Country offensively they've been bad though.
I mean, they're 97th in the country and EPA per.
Play they've been. Good running the ball.
They, they have gotten a decent running game going.
And that's like the one thing you could you could kind of
point to and say, you know. Gosh, what?
What do we expect out of Purdue with all of this?
But. That has not been able to
sustain them over the course of the season.
And you kind of look at the general numbers, you know,
Indiana's 11th in. FPI, they're 11th.
In S&P. Plus.
They're ninth in FEI. Purdue by Comparisons, 100 and.
13th in FPI, 118th in S&P. Plus. 119th in FEI and they just
have. They've been.
Bad in every phase of the game. You know, I mean Indiana. 36th
in the. Country in yards per game and
3rd in the country. In yards allowed per game,
Purdue is 122nd. In yards per game and they are
120th in yards allowed. Per game.
So it's just it's a, it's a disparity like of the.
Utmost. And it's really fascinating that
we're at this point here. Purdue's had a rough week off
the field. They have been.
You know, losing recruit. Commits left and right and it's
just. Like the whole atmosphere around
this Purdue team just feels really toxic.
And you get that? I mean, you know.
This is a Purdue. Team that frankly, I don't think
they expected to be good. But they certainly didn't.
Expect to be as. Bad.
As they've been this. Season you consider that
Purdue's had. One win over the course of the
entire season and it's against Indiana State and I was at.
Home in the 1st. Game of the season and and since
then. They've had a couple of games
where they've kind of, sort of competed a little bit.
At Illinois, you know on the. 12th of October that that was a.
Bizarre game. They scored a bunch of points in
the second-half. They almost knocked off Illinois
at Illinois Northwestern that that game went to overtime I
believe at home. The rest of the games they.
Have just kind of not been in them at all they've.
They scored seven. Points Against Notre Dame, they
lost 66 to 7. They scored 6.
Points against a pretty bad Wisconsin team and lost. 52 to 6
they got skunked. 35 Nothing at home.
Versus Oregon, Ohio State beat them 45, nothing.
Penn State beat them 4910. They did show some signs of life
last week against Michigan State.
They only lost by 7. But you know, even on the drives
at the end where they could have done something, they just
couldn't. Quite get stuff done, you know,
stand out statistically. For Purdue.
David, Devin. Maccabee, who you probably.
Remember from last year? He's.
Been good, relatively speaking. He's averaging 5 point. 3-7
yards per carry, 666 yards for touchdowns on the course of the.
Season and Reggie Love hasn't gotten as many touches.
But is averaging about. 4 1/2. Yards a carry, so they they do.
Get some things done. In terms of their.
Rushing attack on offense. Passing wise, they've had to go
back and forth. Hudson Card, the senior, the guy
that was. You know, they brought in who
was, you know. Supposed to be a, you know, some
kind of. Revelation at quarterback he
actually didn't play. Two games this year, he's had a
couple of games where he didn't get.
To 20 pass attempts. Was was pretty good relatively.
Speaking. In terms of yards?
Against Michigan State through for. 342 yards but completion
percentage for card. On the season 58.7.
Percent that's. Not going to get the job done.
You know they. They were playing the freshman
Ryan Brown in some of these games.
He had a good game against Illinois.
Through three touchdowns. But his completion percentage
also has been 58%. So it's just.
Not a team that's gotten a lot done.
In terms of of getting through the air, their leading receiver
is Max Claire. The tight end is caught 40
balls. He's got double, almost double.
The amount of. Catches of their highest.
Ranked receiver in that category.
Defensively, you know, as you're.
Watching out there, you're going to keep an eye on on Dylan
Taineman. He's a sophomore defensive back.
He's got. 94 total tackles leads the team.
Kidron Jenkins. I think it's.
Kidron 78 tackles total on the season and then you've got a
bunch of guys in the 40 to 50 range.
So you know. Just try to throw these names
out so you've got some idea of what to look.
For. You know, to me.
This. Game is largely about Indiana.
And it's largely about. A couple of things.
A you know, Indiana's got a ton on the line here.
You win this game convincingly. You, you know, I think you
pretty much locked up a College Football Playoff spot at that.
Point you might be a lower. Seed, but if you if you play in
an impressive manner against Purdue.
And you dominate them. You're going to erase a lot of.
The questions that have. Popped up here over the course
of the recent. Weeks about your offense and
about your overall. Play.
It's a little unfair because the defense is actually.
Played well the last couple of weeks.
Defense played really well against.
Michigan held them to 15 total points held them to.
One of their worst running. Games in a while.
The defense played well. Against Ohio State, take that
last touchdown out that was scored after the onside kick the
defense allowed seventeen points again made it.
Difficult for Ohio State to move the ball.
Came up with a a timely turnover.
So really most of the. Focus for Indiana, I think is
offensive and it's like, what's wrong with the offense?
Why is the offense struggling so much?
It's been surprising how bad the passing attacks.
Been over the course of the last six quarters.
And the running attack probably could have filled in some of
those gaps against Ohio. State, but once they started to
fall behind. Due to special teams mishaps
that went away and so I think. One of the big things for
Indiana early is going to be. Establishing the run.
This has got to be a big, big game for Justice Ellison and
Tyson Lawton and. You know, I think if you can
punish Purdue early on the. Ground you might be.
Able to break their spirit early it's going to be chilly out
there like I said, and so you've.
Got some issues. There in terms of like.
Indiana need to be. Needs to be sure to secure the
ball. Indiana needs to be.
Sure that they are doing. What they need to.
Do to keep warm, but you've also got to look at Purdue.
Purdue's. One in 10.
Their season's gone entirely. Off the rails, there have been
people calling for the. Coach's.
Job you got guys. Decommitting you got probably
got a bunch of guys with an eye on.
The transfer portal who are just going to be.
Happy to get out of there at the end of the season.
I wonder how much Purdue's going.
To feel like competing. In 22° wind chill with a light.
Snow, which is probably. What it's going to be at the
start of the game, but I think you can really punish.
Purdue by getting out to an early lead.
And that's something Indiana hasn't done.
Particularly well now, yes. They took a 7 nothing lead
against. Ohio State.
But I'm talking about, you know, get a 21 nothing lead, get a 28
nothing lead. Like, really?
Put some distance. Between yourself and Purdue,
early first quarter, early second quarter, leave it so
that. You're not worried?
About the margin, you're just worried.
Then about execution and putting yourself in a position where you
can maybe. Beat the spread and then put
yourself. In the eyes of the committee, as
a team that maybe struggled for a couple of weeks, but now
you're back. Full force and ready.
To go and maybe. Even host a playoff game if the
cards happen to fall the right. Way so.
You know, a lot of it also is like, can we get Curtis Rourke
and his receivers? Back in rhythm.
With each other. And that's something that I've
been. Puzzled by I can't tell if
Rourke is still injured or if the.
The timing. That was so perfect through the.
Beginning of that Nebraska game just got lost in the shuffle and
it hasn't been. Regained yet?
You've had drops. Elijah Serratis.
Drop the ball. Miles Price has dropped the
ball, you know. Zach Horton I think had a drop
at one point like this has been uncharacteristic.
Drops for this IU team in this receiving.
Core which had. Been so.
Solid. So multifaceted, So dangerous.
Through so many games this year, it just hasn't quite.
Been there. To that degree, yes.
The Michigan State game was kind of an exception, but even that
game. You know a healthy dose of the.
Damage Indiana did offensively was through the running game and
so I really want to see Rourke in the receivers in their, you
know, potentially their last chance to get reps in.
Before the playoff or, you know, whatever.
Awaits Indiana I want to see them get those reps and I want
to see Rourke have a nice game I want to see Omar Cooper have a
nice game I want to see the. Rest of the receivers.
Getting involved in the action, you know, a lot of it's
mentality and I I, I often times I think fall into the trap that
many other. IU football.
Fans have fallen into. Where we get worried about Oh
well, this. Could go wrong and that could go
wrong. And I think back to all of those
like Joe Tiller era Purdue. Teams who were demonstrably
better than the IU teams they played against, and they went
into bucket games and just smashed Indiana to Tiny.
Pieces that's. Ultimately what I want to see.
Is Kurt Signetti do? I want Signetti to have his team
dialed in. I want them to have watched.
All of that tape of the lack of. Execution against Ohio State.
I want them looking at the. College Football Playoff.
Rankings and saying, guys, the committee doesn't think very
highly of us right now. Are you going to?
Is that right? Or are you going to go prove
them wrong like these are? The kinds of things I think
Indiana mentality wise has got to.
Come in not overconfident, you know, because as we've seen,
Purdue does have the ability to score.
A ton of points. They did it against Illinois.
That's the only time they've done it, but they've at least
got the ability. To do it but.
You know, can you? Go out there.
And just kind of. Smother Purdue in the crib.
Early Can you get it to where? They don't want to be there.
They don't. Want to take part in things?
You break their spirit early and then basically.
From that point, it's you as Indiana just racking points up,
racking style points up, and putting yourself in the best
possible position for. You know the.
The second most important? Bracket reveal for the College
Football Playoff, which is going to.
Be this upcoming Tuesday. So those are kind of the main
things. I mean, you know, as I, as I
look at this Indiana team. There's it's been such.
A great season and. You know, to watch the
offensive. Production kind of fall off a.
Cliff here over the course of the last couple of weeks.
Has been a a bit of a head. Scratcher, there's no.
Reason why Indiana. Can't get back to where they
were before. This is the worst.
Team Indiana's. Played since Charlotte.
And it maybe. They may even be worse than
Charlotte slightly. You know, I mean, Charlotte on
the season is. 4:00 and 7:00 So they've won three more games
than Purdue. And that.
Includes wins against Florida. Atlantic, East Carolina.
Rice. All all those teams are are FBS
teams which? Indiana State.
Purdue's lone. Victory is not so.
This is going to be a real opportunity for.
Indiana to get back into a rhythm.
Get back to where? They need to be mentally and
hopefully put themselves in a position where they can.
Just leave everybody with a really positive feeling.
It's going to be. Interesting.
As far as the crowd is concerned, I I talked about this
A. Little bit on Sunday.
When we did our preview. And one of the things that
really concerned. Me was the weather and how
people were. Going to react now.
We saw the get in price for this.
Game be as. High as like 200 and. 50 bucks
back in. Early to mid November, I think
as early as like middle of last week, people start looking at
the long term forecast, all of a.
Sudden we're like, uh oh and. Tickets started to sell.
And. Prices drop like a rock.
The get in price. Was as low as $20 I think the
day before. Thanksgiving, now it's rebounded
some. I'm looking at it right now on
SeatGeek and I think. People are starting to realize
it's. Not going to be.
As cold as they thought originally.
Get in price right now Still a. Really good deal, $32 per.
Ticket including fees, but you know, I imagine that'll.
Go up a little bit more. I just hope we get a sell.
Out like an actual. Sell out.
This IU. Team deserves it.
It's been such a great season, It'd be great to have a full.
Crowd in there. We don't know what's going to
happen with students and whether students are going to be able to
make it back. But you know, this is where the.
People of Indiana, the IU fans living in Indiana, need to be
filling in those gaps and putting themselves in a
position. Where they're in there
supporting the team and. Getting loud and helping them
out and and. Hopefully celebrating a big win
over Purdue, which is something we can always celebrate
regardless. Of what's going on?
In a particular year, you look at the weather forecast as it
sits. Right now and I, I.
Kind of go back and forth between different weather apps
trying to figure out what what weather app's.
Going to have the. The best overview of of what to.
Expect it's interesting now. Because you look at the forecast
and the. It the the ambient.
Air temperature never falls. Below 28°, which isn't that bad.
Little bit of wind the wind isn't supposed to be.
That bad light breeze. Like 5-6 miles an hour.
So you're talking about 2324? Degree wind chill which?
Obviously is not ideal, but it's let's be honest, it's not that.
Bad We've all sat outside in high school.
Football conditions. That are probably worse.
Than that, what is an interesting thing and and maybe
something that'll be more fun. For people that go, I'm
certainly looking forward to it is the.
Chance of some snow. I don't think it's going to be a
huge amount, but they're talking about potentially close to an
inch of accumulation. Which you know.
With a light wind and with being able to kind of be in the
stadium. Could be really enjoyable.
You know, just a a nice scene. We've never had a night bucket
game. We've had a couple of bucket
games, I think with some snow, although it's been.
A long time. Normally rain is the.
Bigger culprit. But I just don't think at any
point the weather's going to be bad enough that it would justify
not going to the. Game so hopefully.
If you're on the fence and you're listening to this.
You're like, you know what? Let's do it.
I'll just I'll put an extra layer on.
We'll go enjoy this. Game, you know, it should be a
lot of fun and I've been heartened by the number of
people that have communicated to me that they are planning on
being in Bloomington. For the game, so I hope to see
you there. We're going to do.
We're not going to do a 7 hour tailgate.
Like we normally do a little bit more of an abbreviated tailgate,
probably a couple of hours when it gets that that flavor before
we head into the. Stadium itself, but whatever
your plans happen to be. Whether you're going to go out
to the. Bars beforehand and then go to
the. Stadium or just go to the
stadium. Right when the game starts,
you're going to go. To the tailgate lots or
whatever. Enjoy the.
Experience, enjoy the atmosphere and enjoy the fact you've got a
12:50 football team with a chance to break.
Yet another school record and go to 11:00 and 1:00, knocking off
Purdue and hopefully put. Themselves in a position.
Where a playoff berth is no longer a question, but.
Instead, the question is where are we playing in the first
round? So anyway, not a lot.
Else to say about. This one, you know, I will say.
S&P Plus is even more bullish. On Indiana in terms.
Of predicted score. Than than Vegas is Vegas is a 29
1/2 the. S&P Plus predicted score for
this game. Is Indiana 47?
Purdue 6 So this is this is the computers think it's going to be
a blowout. And Vegas thinks it's going to
be a blowout. Hopefully Indiana able to go out
and live up to that as they take on Purdue in this one and
hopefully get themselves to 11:00 and 1:00 and finish things
off properly. That'll wrap it up for us here,
folks. Like I said, a relatively short,
but hopefully a little bit of a preview for Purdue to get you
ready to go. Be safe.
Driving down to Bloomington, wherever you're coming from and
we'll look forward to seeing at Memorial Stadium for the back
home network and for Crimson cast.
I'm Galen Clavio. Thanks for joining us here once
again on the show. We'll catch you folks on the
flip. Side bring back the.
Bison stay never. Daunted.
So on everybody.