You're listening to the back home network presented by home
field apparel. Welcome back to Crimson Castillo
and caviar joining you once again.
You know, big stuffs happening. When we're doing like five
podcasts in one day, this is normally something reserved for
IU. Men's basketball coaching
searches, but this is about as big, it's certainly got a lot of
facets to it. And we got a lot of people to
talk about to try to get a better idea of what to expect of
what's going on up to this point and what we should expect or
maybe think about expecting over the course of the next days
weeks months. What have you?
Of course, I'm talking about USC.
And UCLA joining the Big Ten which went from not on anybody's
legitimate radar to actually having happened within about a
five hour span yesterday, and we've got Zak Osterman Insider
for IU athletic stuff for the Indy star joining us on the
show. Zach, how you doing?
That is supposed to come up and visit for like, four days
starting yesterday and he actually postponed until like
Two to three days ago, postponed until Sunday.
And then when everything happened yesterday was like,
thank God. Yeah, I mean, this is the
summer, is the offseason, right? It's like the one time when
things are supposed to be a little bit calm since things
really ramp up in August and September for you, but yeah,
definitely some fascinating changes going on in college
sports. Let's start from the beginning.
So you heard the rumors first start to pop up yesterday.
What was your initial reaction when you saw the start to
reverberate around social media? Yeah, I mean it's funny because
in this is just me complaining but I'll do that.
Like two three months ago near the end of the season.
My boss Macklin desks and we should just have some sort of
like state of in il story you know after one year and I
started reporting that and then I kept reporting it and I kept
reporting it and 15,000 words of know.
Later, it's become five stories and I was finishing the second
of those five yesterday thinking that this was going to kind of
dominate my week before I take some time off for the holiday
next week and then somebody texted me, I guess, probably run
noon. It was like, do you think this
is real? And I was like, doing what's
real and then, you know, and I made this joke on Twitter but I
wasn't really joking in, in less time than Than a long baseball
game. We went from nothing to, you
know, USC and UCLA are in the Big Ten.
And I don't think it's been said a lot.
At least, I haven't seen it said a lot, I think Kevin Warren
deserves, tremendous credit for this.
I do believe in everyone says that these things are School
driven because nobody wants to get sued, but I do believe based
on people. I've talked to you based on
everything, I've read everything I've heard that this was really
instigated by USC and UCLA that The best way to describe it is
that the Big Ten wasn't actively looking to expand, but ever
since last summer, Kevin Warren has just sort of had like the
Big Ten in like expansion mode. So if an opportunity ever
presented itself, the path from point, A to point, B would be
about as linear as possible. You wouldn't need to go through
weeks of politicking and wrangling and whatever else you
would just be able to just be like plugging into the machine
and we just go, we do it. It'll happen fast just to be.
Ready. If something like this presented
itself, and when it did, you know, I mean that this is
literally the first conference expansion, that touched the
three, big TV markets, in this country.
And yet, nothing leaked, until it was basically done.
That's why I wasn't it. I mean, like, you know, he got
one anemone back. Not that you wouldn't, you
wouldn't expect a unanimous vote, but remember where the Big
Ten was and fall of 2020, you know, fighting over the football
season and Hades going rogue and coaches going rogue.
No big tent, your Kevin Warren. Got a lot of that back
yesterday. Like you got a lot of the sort
of the Harmony and the idea of the Big Ten as the grown-ups in
the room back yesterday and and in doing.
So he also basically ripped the heart and lungs at the back 12.
So it's been you know, of all the things in terms of just like
System, Shock of all the big sort of seismic changes.
We've seen in college athletics in the last 24.
Months, Texas and Oklahoma, and IL, the elimination of
Divisions, all the discussion of playoff expansion.
This one is probably the biggest System Shock.
If nothing else. Well, yeah, because it's got
both future implications but it's also got a lot of past
implications. I mean, if you study the history
of College athletics, it's almost always been the Big 10
and the pack 10/12 versus the rest of college football, in
terms of who's got control of the steering wheel and to The
Big Ten kind of wait for the right moment and then as you
described it, rip the heart and lungs out of the Pac-12.
Been basically business partners with them for 120 years.
At this point is really, it's not shocking because this is
what happens in college sports these days.
But it is a bit of a shock to the system to watch that
transpire. You know, you mentioned the
school driven thing and obviously we're not going to
hear the actual truth on that. It may be that USC and UCLA were
the ones that that made the calls.
Initially and really kind of tried to move things along, but
the Big Ten, you know, had to have done some due diligence
ahead of time on this. I mean, we only heard about this
for about four hours before the decision was done.
That's not how things are done in college sports.
This was clearly something that the groundwork has been laid on
for like weeks or months in advance.
Well, and the theory of this has been other for a very long time,
particularly with you see, USC. But like, you know, UCLA is, is
a pretty strong brand in itself. I think it's probably the
second, No, everybody gets excited about organ and Nike and
all that. But like, UCLA ultimately is
probably the second strongest brand in the packed.
Well, certainly, if you're pairing it to USC, bringing the
two historical Rivals out of that that conference and
shutting off the capital of the West Coast to the, what the the
only West Coast Power, five conference in Los Angeles.
Like USC is almost certainly more popular and UCLA May well
be more popular in San Francisco than Stanford the you know than
cows. Oh Again, it didn't all just
happen in one day but I think where Kevin Warren probably
deserves. A lot of credit is, I do
genuinely think like Last Summer the Big Ten was standing.
Pat obviously, there was the alliance and now that's become a
permanent punchline but I think the alliance served its purpose
at the time which releasing the victim's perspective, was to
block the SEC from railroading, everybody else into a college
football. Playoff scenario that no one
else was sure worked for them. I suspect Kevin Warren woke up
this morning a lot more. Medically aligned with the SEC
as it pertains to the college football.
Playoff then maybe he did a week ago but it was more about I
think having the conference ready for that process if the
opportunity arose, if the opportunity If the opportunity
presented itself, not basically saying.
Okay, now we start from square one but having like, you know,
having all the pieces in place to say, oh we have this, we have
these schools that are interested.
Well, here's the information. We need.
Here's who we need to present it to and here's the process.
This needs to go through and here's how we can streamline it.
So that everybody gets what they need through that process with a
minimum of fuss and a maximum efficiency and I think that's
where he deserves and his office deserves a lot of credit because
You know, it again, like, when Texas and Oklahoma left, it
didn't happen this quickly. But it did happen a lot more
quickly than, like, the whole Nebraska Colorado, Utah, like
the the summer of 2010, which is just like a long soap opera.
But when that happened, no one was surprised that the Big 12
wasn't going to last. I mean, what was the joke about
the Big 12, that it was like a conference built on oil, futures
or something like that. And it was and it was all these
schools that had never trusted each other to begin with.
Like it was all these schools that had been No.
Cheating and lying and double-dealing on each other for
50 years that were something like well and we need to
conference so we're just going to kind of figure this out.
But as you said like I mean listen in the formative years of
college football in this country like the Big Ten in the Pac-12
with Notre, Dame kind of you know attached on the like that
was the thing. The SEC was not the thing.
It was he was Notre Dame, you as see it was the Rose Bowl.
It was USC, Stanford. It was Michigan, Ohio State like
that. The Those were the national,
what's the word of the national sort of products, right next,
that meant the most and moved the most.
It's essentially, it's essentially what the NCAA built
itself on was you know big brands in the Midwest and then
you've obviously got you know the LA and San Francisco markets
and with the Rose Bowl is kind of the big exclamation point.
At the end of every year. Obviously college football was
very different back then, but those were the population
centers and the Financial Centers it's really only Last
what, 40 years that we've seen the ascendancy of the SEC as a
national entity and it's just interesting to watch these
political connections, kind of disintegrate as the New Order
comes in yes. And again, you know, I mean, it
will be the convenient punchline forever but you know, the whole
we haven't signed anything. It's a handshake agreement among
gentlemen. We're not going to pose.
Ouch. We're not we're not.
We are we are hand in glove. We are the alliance and we do
not need to contractually CNN. Like listen again like it's
ruthless but like more some credit for that too.
Like he got he got the other two people that he needed in the
room to look him in the eye and believe that he wasn't going to
be like, oh, that was fun. It's yeah, it was good while it
lasted but it, I mean, it is tearing down the old way and
I'll listen There's a lot of like this is going to ruin
college football. I get that it met.
The forward pass was also supposed to ruin college
football. You know, the the introduction
of signing limits in recruiting classes so that Bear Bryant
couldn't just get the 50, most talented kids in the South and
screw everybody else in the SEC so much.
So that Bobby Dodd just took Georgia Tech independent to
thumb his nose at them or things of that.
College football, hit hit no longer being allowed to sign
like a 75 member freshman class was no longer write 60 of them
were enrolled and worked at the steel foundries like it, you
know, it like all these things were supposed to ruin college,
football, college, football is doing fine.
And I suspect college football will find its equilibrium here.
But I think the other thing about yesterday, Again, like so
many of these, these forces have kind of been positioning
themselves for a big like a really big sort of maneuver to
something new, you've got in il, you've got all these people,
discussing the idea of just moving football away from the
NCAA entirely, putting it under the playoff.
You've got, I mean just just all kinds of things going on here.
The yesterday felt like the last Domino to really like, like,
when Texas and Oklahoma moved and in the Big Ten didn't
counter, it was like, okay, you know, in these War analogies,
forgive me are clumsy, but this is best I have ever it.
Is every light, I'm sort of like everybody.
Put their guns down for now. And in il has prompted, all
these discussions of like maybe the the current government
structure of College athletics. Particular usual, college
football and big-time money. Making College athletics is not
really fit for purpose anymore. We need to explore something
else, but we're talking about it openly.
But like it's, it's it's, it's still just kind of.
Yeah, you know, it's it's still sort of theoretical this Kicks
Down the door. Yeah, this, you know, this this
is the this removes the last obstacle like the dam is down
now. The water is over it.
And what comes next? We can debate but I think this
is when you can finally just sort of say, like we're off.
Yeah. And and let's talk about the
reason why? And it's because you know, the
the order as it had reformed itself after the 2010 expansions
was essentially five power conferences and you know
famously the Pac-12 or the pac-10 at the time, almost added
Texas in that round of expansion that was going to be Larry
Scott's, big move, and then ESPN trying to avoid the four super
conference line up. What's that?
But this essentially, as you mentioned, it cuts the heart out
of the Pac-12, the Pac-12 without the LA schools is
essentially not a financial entity that can command much of
anything in terms of the television market place.
You know, they are now relegated to being at the level that the
current Big 12 is at and that's not a very good place to be.
And it further garnishes, the big Ten's television rights
which still haven't been completely signed.
That's supposed to happen. At some point.
It now makes the the Big 10 that much more attractive, the SEC
with Texas and Oklahoma already attractive.
And now the big question is, you know, the financial gap between
the Big Ten and the SEC and what those schools individually will
be making is now entirely separated, like there was still
a chance, potentially the Pac-12 might be able to figure
something out and be like, hey, we have the LA Market, we have
Seattle, we have the Bay Area, maybe we can get some kind of
package that works. Now that's completely out the
window and now it ends up being a Should have what other
Domino's can fall because anything keeping college
football. From going to essentially a to
conference super structure is basically gone out the window,
as you said, Right. I think I think what's, what is
next to me. And, you know, I know you and I
were having this discussion yesterday, I was trying to
remember, I was like, who's having this discussion with
yesterday, because I think I had about 80 discussion yesterday.
It was you, I know your sort of advocating for the idea of
basically consolidating now like with the the the line from that
wonderful Clive Owen movie The Inside Man, when there's blood
on the streets by property, I think ultimately wants Texas and
Oklahoma were off the board. Were basically three brands that
were left, USC, UCLA and Notre Dame, USC and UCLA because of
their strength and because of their location Notre Dame
because they're Notre Dame. If Notre Dame is interested and
I will not profess to be at all the most tapped in person on
this. But I am confident that Notre
Dame is considering the idea seriously?
Now of, we may need to join a conference.
Like it, it may be time basically to use the leverage
while we have it before. We are forced.
Just to dive in and, you know, we don't and we have to accept
someone else's terms. If Notre Dame's interested,
obviously, obviously you have to listen for me.
Other than that. I think the Big Ten should stand
path for the moment and I think the Big Ten needs to get in a
room with the SEC and discuss a sensible playoff future because
all of a sudden, the terms around that of change, like,
don't think you need to give anybody don't think you need to
give Efforts, Champions automatic qualifiers anymore.
If you don't want to, you know, like that.
Does that make a lot of sense for the SEC or the Big Ten right
now? No, not to say you won't, but
then maybe what you do is you go to Big 12, you go to the ACC,
you know, whatever's left of the Pac-12.
And you say, if you want that, you're gonna have to agree to a
16-team leak or your or a 12 2016 gameplay, 04:12 team,
playoff, you know, you're going to have to accept that you just
Gonna have to live like live with that because ultimately we
hold all the cards now and then at that point, once you figure
out if you're the Big Ten of the SEC, basically, what the most
favorable structure would be for you under the new.
Playoff, that's when I think you start having conversations,
serious conversations about Clemson or Florida State, North
Carolina, or Virginia, or Washington, or Oregon, or
Stanford or whoever. I think the thing is, if you're
the Big Ten, especially Big 10 right now because the You always
being renegotiated you don't need there's nobody else out
there. You need organ.
Does not change the math for you.
Enough. Washington does not the one
school that does is Notre. Dame, even the schools in the
ACC really kind of don't. Like, I saw you talking to the
blask about this on Twitter. Like, okay, yeah, you could go
get, Georgia Tech, but like, Georgia Tech is so irrelevant
in. And I say that, as someone who
grew up in Georgia Tech fan, like, when I was a kid, my
granddaddy went to Tech my aunts and uncles went to Tech.
Like I was a tech fan growing up.
It is so. Irrelevant in that town.
That town is a Georgia town. If the Braves town, it's a
Falcons town, it's a hawks town. It's a high school sports town.
It's an everybody else in the SEC town.
It's an atlantian night in town and then it is a Georgia Tech
town like that like that. There is, you would, it would be
even cheaper than getting Rutgers to open up, New York.
Like, trust me, it really would, there's also the complication of
like, apparently it's very hard not that, you can't be done.
But apparently, it would be very hard to Kate, I think in
particular, I don't know about Notre Dame but I think I'm
taking the full ACC members from their grant of rights deal right
now, which runs through 2036. So again, if you're the Big Ten,
your whole thing right now is we're all about to make a
hundred million dollars a year and meteorites.
You don't want to look at your members and say, but we're going
to need to spend 20 million of that every year to get Clemson
out of the just so we can be in the Charlotte market like that,
that doesn't make a lot of sense, nor frankly if I'm the
Big Ten does trying to go south and fight the SEC when you're
not going to win. We're at you just opened up a
brand new Corridor out west. I think that's the avenue to
explore, but I just think that in this moment other than Notre
Dame there's nobody, that moves the needle enough that you if
you're the Big Ten, can't just say, let's take a breath, let's
figure out because the next, the next Golden Egg to crack.
Open, is the playoff and figuring out like, where are the
economic levers. That's everyone's favorite
phrase, these days. I see it.
Around Barcelona tweets all the time, the economically.
A where are the economic levers in the plan?
How do you make money off of the playoff?
If you expand it, then you take, you take the answer to that
question and you overlay it on your conference.
It's okay. To 16 make sense, does 18 makes
sense. Just 20 makes sense.
What makes the most sense at that point?
And then you go from there. You know the interesting thing
is going to be this because I understand all that you're
saying and you're probably going to be right because I think
you're thinking is more in line with where College presidents.
Are at right now. What's going to be fascinating?
Let's say the let's say, Notre Dame is looking at this and
they've decided, look, we need to jump.
Now, as you mentioned that does move the needle from a financial
perspective. What's going to be interesting
is much as we saw with you as see who's looking at
Northwestern. And Vanderbilt and saying, wait
a minute. Northwestern and Vanderbilt are
making more than double in television Revenue, what we're
making and we're USC. I look at these ACC schools.
Who, as you mentioned, have a Grant of rights with the ACC for
television with ESPN, but it's only paying them.
I think something like 17 million dollars a year through
2036, if you're a Florida State or a Clemson or one of these
schools. That's that's had a lot of
national success that looks as itself as a national brand, it's
going to be a hard pill to swallow when Mississippi state
is, or South Carolina is earning a hundred million dollars a year
plus from television contracts. They have through the SEC with
When so, I do Wonder at some point, those schools are not
going to be satisfied with just sitting there and taking it,
which might end up with ESPN pulling the chain oniy on the
entire ACC television contract to begin with.
So, you know, as you mentioned, if you're the Big Ten doing
exploratory, stuff in the southern markets, where you're
going to have to pay money, to get those schools in, probably
doesn't make a lot of sense, but you do have to be ready.
If and when the ACC or ESPN, Pulls the plug on itself with
that contract and decides that. Hey, now is the time we need to
consolidate. There's going to be some brands
that aren't just going to want to March into the SEC and be
like the 11th or 12th. Most important brand there.
No, I think that's probably true.
You know, again, the question is just like, what is the near-term
future? What is the long-term future?
I know there are people that really believe kind of in this
idea of of a Super League II, don't I'm not sure I'm as ready
to buy into that as some other people but like, could we, is
there a 20-year plan? Where we wind up with a sidecar
competition, like the Champions League, where ultimately, we do
give something to the the the ultra Elite that is sort of
reserved for them with with at least the illusion of the idea
that like IU football could play its way into that because you
can you for I'm sure we have several listeners, who don't
know what the champions league is or how it works because you
give a thumbnail sketch of it for everybody.
Basically it involves all of the what is it?
Like 4750, something looks like 53.
Yeah, national soccer leagues in Europe.
In what's called you a phone, which is the union of European
football. Association's participation is
waiting on the strength of your league.
So England gets more teams than Hungary.
It's teams get more favorable position.
Mission than Hungary you know England gets 14, Spain gets four
teams, France gets three teams. A Holland gets two teams or you
know whatever these things change based on basically how
competitive these leagues are annually in European
competition, you qualify for it out of your league position.
And then you play Champions League games, you play your
League season and then again sort of sidecar to that
alongside that you're playing Champions League games, get you
qualified or Europa League games as well.
It's that sort of like their second level competition and And
basically what it is is just an additional like enormous Revenue
stream. Like I think using Liverpool is
the example. I think Liverpool's expectation
for their leak, their Premier League finish would be about 150
million pounds this year, something like that.
I think their expectation for playing all the way to the
Champions League. Final would be like another 75
million pounds. And in theory any team that
plays in the first division in England can qualify for the
Champions League in practice nearly no team.
Will it will be a, it will come from a live exclusive list of no
more than maybe seven teams you know out of the 20 in that
League. Plus the 24 in the league below
that plus the 24 of the link below that plus the 22 in the
league before that are below that.
So the point is, there is the illusion of the idea that IU
football or Illinois, football, or Purdue football, could
someday be in this. This this sort of top-tier
competition the likelihood is that because the resources are
built the way, Built there will always be a ceiling that those
schools. The vast majority of them cannot
break through to get into this Elite competition.
But I do reject kind of this idea that we're going to wind up
in a place where basically, all the good schools are just going
to go off and do their own thing, and just because number
one, nobody wanted that, like, European soccer tried that last
year and there was such a, an immediate and emotional Revolt
that it didn't last a week. Number two, Television Partners
one inventory. Like at the end of the day there
are like 600,000 living IU, alumni who will sit down and
watch a game, you know, watch Indiana play, Michigan State on
a Saturday under the illusion that it may matter even though
they know ultimately it's not going to get them in the playoff
in all likelihood they're still going to watch it and they're
still going to make the broadcast Partners more much
more money than the broadcast partners are going to spend
putting that game on in terms of, you know, putting talent in
the booth somewhere and run. The cameras and you know,
turning on the broadcast signal. So I just I still think there's
going to be a need for that product but again we stratify it
somehow. As time goes on, we can't answer
those questions until we know where the Big Ten in the SEC.
Now, more than ever, as you said, I think you said it a
minute ago, it is really the Big 10, the SEC, and then everyone
else we can't really answer that question.
Till we know where, what the Big Ten in the SEC thing makes
sense. Is it?
16 is at 18, is it? 20, is it to just to Super
conferences? I don't know.
And then, and then there is listen, football drives this
bus, but basketball is the only other billion-dollar sport.
It's not like basketball is still gonna be a factor in this
because it's not like any of these schools are going to be
like that we'll just leave that money on the table.
We don't want those millions and millions of dollars.
So then that that kind of layers into it as well.
If you start really shaking up the conference's, do you change
the way your basketball season Works in particular your
postseason? But week, I mean, you know, we
could get into these weeds in any number of directions.
It's a giant swamp or standing in the love right now.
I want to pick up on something that you mentioned there a
little bit it, because it corresponds with concerns that
I've seen people voicing, and it's that we're going to get
three or five, or seven years down the road, and the big
football schools are going to kick, everybody else out and
just form a super league and that, you know, for Indiana fans
remain. Okay.
Indiana is no longer involved. I don't think that's very likely
for a variety of reasons. Not the least of which is you
just don't see those big teams wanting to be in places where
they could potentially lose more than one or two games in a
regular season. And if you've got nothing but
big brands in a league, that's essentially what would happen.
What's your take on? All of this, is this something
Indiana fan should be concerned about I think I mean first of
all in the near-term know like in the in the near term this is
all still going to look pretty familiar.
We're going to expand the playoff you know whether Notre
Dame gets added or not. Whether anybody else gets added
or not. We're going to see probably a
scheduling model. I would guess similar to what
was already coming which is you have a couple protected Rivals
and then you play everybody else home in a way on a rotating
basis, in the long term, I think there are a few things.
Number one, basketball will still matter to, Extend in some
respects, it may matter even more to have schools with strong
basketball Brands while the football schools just Hammer
football and know, like, yes, you will feel a little bit like
a second-class, citizen at basketball is your main
contribution but it is still, like I said, it's still a
billion-dollar sport. It's still the only other
billion-dollar sport in college athletics.
They're not just going to throw that away.
Number ever wear, this was number two.
Number three, Indiana is Still still has a lot of just physical
power as a fan base. It's a large fan base.
You're talking hundreds of thousands of people that will
tune in to watch out, you games, that will travel to IU bowls.
That will do those. You know, you won't get 100,000
people traveling valuable because you're saying what I'm
saying, and sort of concurrent to that and don't see a world
where we tear down that whole structure like the bowls.
Again, it's not free money but like the Bulls make money, the
bowls make everyone money. So are we really going to do
something where we just tear 25 teams away and everybody else is
just sort of left playing for scraps.
And ultimately the value of all that is is just submarine
because everyone knows that like you Illinois on a Saturday
afternoon doesn't have doesn't mean anything because there's
no. So like, we're not going to
throw away the Music City Bowl because it makes people money.
Does it make them as much money as well?
No, but like, it's still makes money like it's still that no
one's leaving money on the table.
No. No One's Gonna Be Like, no.
We don't. We don't need that money.
We only need this money. Like this is all about money and
they're not going to leave some of it on the table, simply
because maybe it's not quite exclusive enough.
The other part of this too, is, it's on level and this is going
to sound flippant about. All you football more than, I
mean it too. But like the Yankees need the
Orioles to lose 100 games, so they can win, 100 games.
There will always quite frankly at some level be a need for, you
know, that, you know, for there to be have-nots for there to be
happens. And like, seriously anyone who's
not familiar with the European Super League because they talked
about it for years, like they taught mean the idea of a super
league that takes just like the 20 to 25 best, you know,
football clubs in Europe and we can name them all here.
The big six in England, Manchester United City,
Liverpool, Chelsea, Spurs Arsenal, Bayern Munich, Rocio,
Dortmund, maybe the big four and in Italy, the toumelin teams
Rome and you've a real Madrid Barcelona athletic.
Madrid, you know, PL in the Gap PSG, he forgets.
He didn't see the filling the gap of the few others Leon.
Maybe, you know. Yeah, that idea has been around
for like 30 years. It's been around as long as the
Premier League is existed. That was 1992.
If not longer than that frankly. They did that last year and it
literally didn't last a week like they announced it.
There were huge, protests outside, stadiums all over
Europe, Manchester United fans, The biggest game in club
football shut down. They're supposed to play
Liverpool on a Sunday afternoon behind closed doors, there
weren't supposed to be fans in the stadium and they invaded the
stadium. Got onto the field in the
thousands and would not leave, and they had to postpone the
game. They had to play it like three
weeks later. And the point I'm trying to make
is everyone almost immediately rejected that I don't
necessarily think that the, the attitude would be dissimilar
here. That's why I wonder if what what
maybe makes more sense. Long term is some sort of
stratification of competition where the Indiana's the
Illinois. If we go to other conferences,
the Ole Miss has, you know, the the Mississippi state's, the
South Carolina's, the, I don't know, the Is whatever are still
in the room but there is like an exclusive table that it is
highly unlikely. They will ever get extended
access to maybe. Maybe once every 40 years
Indiana will have the kind of season they had during the covid
season. And they'll get to sit, they'll
get one year sitting at that table, whatever that looks like.
And then that's won't be sustainable.
They'll fall out again. Yeah, and they'll just kind of
fade back into the pack you know, in the way that we've
seen, any number, you know, newcastle's done it Lester's
done, it takes to in Spain all the freaking time.
I think that probably makes more sense to me, but like we are, I
want to also be clear like we are in You know, like this is
just like Ultra hypothetical territory but I don't see a
world where all these broadcast partners that are shelling out
literally billions of dollars for the this inventory.
Suddenly only one Ohio state Alabama every week because it
loses a level of exclusivity. It loses a degree of importance
because all of a sudden it doesn't feel like it means that
much if they're just Do it again next season.
There's, there's no sense of like, you know, already we were
probably destroying the idea that college football is unique
to the NFL because you have to be perfect when a national
championship or damn near close to it, like the days of 12 and 0
are probably in an end or very close to it.
In the big conferences is just it's just gonna be too hard but
the the idea of just like the the elite of the elite basically
disappearing sort of off the, you know, over the edge of the
cliff by themselves. I just I don't think there's too
much demand for total inventory here, for that to be something
where that's the that's the only good football on every
afternoon. If you understand what I'm
saying? Yeah, well and I think there's
even more inventory. Demand now.
I mean we saw the report yesterday from Sports Business
Journal After the news that USC and UCLA are going to join the
Big Ten Apple TV, which it backed out of the Big Ten rights
negotiation suddenly called and said, hey we'd like to get back
in on this if we can, you know, you've got NBC with peacock.
You're looking desperately for inventory that they can stream,
because at this point, they don't have a whole lot of
properties on the sports front and sports still drives the bus
so much in terms of advertisers, in terms of demographics. you're
reaching, you know, the the 18 to 36 male Marketplace in a live
setting and that's just so impossible to do in almost every
other phase of television or whatever you want to call
television these days, the to some degree, the demands going
up, not down, which is, I think something that people aren't
used to because as I've seen a lot of the arguments against
this, it's well, you know, there's you need this media
marketer that media market and those are frankly, arguments
from 10 to 12 years, Ago. It's already a different media
landscape in terms of where the games could be showed and what
kind of inventory there is than that then there was no you're
not going to make this move to LA and San Francisco just to
choke off your inventory. Yeah.
Like that. Like that's why like I said I
think either the idea of like a crazy expanded playoff.
Like I think maybe the thing that makes the most sense to me
if we're if we're talking 15, 20 years down the line like not in
the next five years. But you know, 2030 to 2040 to
Guided you know the planet is not superheated by then the
thing that makes the most sense to me is like you know like a 10
11 game regular season you know two or three super conferences
like like maybe the Big 12 finds a way to bring the remnants of
the Pac-12 and the ACC and or something like that.
And then we have kind of like the big 12, the Big Ten, the SEC
3 super conferences, And expanded like a hyper expanded
playoff that's like 32 teams or 20, like 24 teams a teams get
buys and those eight, you know, the whole thing is structured
such as those eight teams that get buys are nearly always going
to be Alabama LSU, Ohio State USC, like, like the thumb is on
the scale to make sure that those teams are first in line to
get the Primo spots in the play of every year and then the rest
of the field. Is a little bit is a little bit
more. Egalitarian is a little bit more
like Iowa will have an opportunity to get in here.
We'll find a way to let you know, one or two group of five
teams in. So, then again, we're sort of
maintaining the illusion of access and if there is a
Cincinnati out there, they can come in and they can play on our
oven will see if they can cut the mustard.
But it, you know, the playoff becomes this thing that's not
fully exclusive because you need to add like ultimately the
playoffs expanding because again Broadcasters TV Partners
Distributors, want more inventory, they want more
playoff games, and one put more playoff games on TV, you know,
three is not enough for them, they want more.
So you find a way to expand it while still keeping the top end
of it. Relatively exclusive.
You don't lose all the other inventory, so, you know, Purdue
Michigan State still gets one and a half million viewers on a
Saturday afternoon because those are two big programs or big, you
know, alumni basis and you'll sell 50,000 tickets and you'll
get, like I said another million people watching on TV.
Particularly the Big Ten in the SEC.
I heard of Staff yesterday that like of like the 70 most watch
college football games last year or something like that.
Like, 66 were 65 or in the Big Ten of the SEC.
And it was, it was a relatively even split between them, but the
point is, like those conferences don't want to lose that
inventory. Like Nuttall.
All Miss and Mississippi state will never be playing for a spot
in the national championship game.
But like, the SEC does not want the Egg Bowl to suddenly not
matter. The I mean it's good TV makes
the money. I don't think that's going away.
I think what's going to happen is we're going to long-term see
further conference consolidation further sort of move not maybe
not just to the power of 5 but like of what we call F BS in
general away from the NCAA, if not away, from the is entirely
and then some sort of system that theoretically gives
everyone access to a national championship.
But puts the thumb on the scale for the top, you know?
Six, eight, Ten teams, Alabama. Oklahoma USC, Ohio, State,
Notre, Dame, and then don't forget, you exist, don't forget
to Texas and maybe, you know, that I didn't put my boy in
there. The point is something that
something that makes it highly likely that those schools are
going to be first in line for the elite level of access to the
conference, the college football postseason and all that money.
We may see, you know, like we surprised if we get to a point
where the Big Ten stops Distributing money evenly the
way that it does right now. But or again, at least maybe at
form something else that doesn't, you know, this money
gets distributed evenly, but this money doesn't.
It's we are really just like, through the Looking Glass in
terms of trying to sort of forecast, a lot of this.
But I think that is the most likely thing because ultimately
to your point, people want more inventory, right now, not less.
And there will probably come a point where we reach a critical
mass and people will say, yes, that is enough college football.
I don't I don't need more but they won't want less.
Yes, and they certainly, won't want substantially less.
And I think that the reason why the Super League gets rejected
is number one, culturally, everyone hated it.
Everyone said this is going to destroy, you know, football
European football. But number two, everyone said,
we prefer a model similar to what we have, which is that in
theory, everyone has access in theory, you can be You know,
Sunderland in League one and if you get a rich owner and a smart
series of managers in eight years, you can get promoted
twice solidify yourself in the Champions League or in the
Premier League and then qualify for the Champions League by
finishing in the top four. That will never happen
obviously, you know, what was it?
It was like, what, like, two thousand to one that Lester was
going to win the league when they want it in 2016.
But the point is the illusion is there to satisfy everyone else
while still creating this this mechanism that allows the elite
teams to make an extra amount of enormous money enormous revenue.
And that's that to me, makes the most sense if we're talking
about kind of the long term. You know, the long terms were
future of this long term structure of this.
Yeah, as you mentioned, it's almost impossible to predict at
this point because there's there's so many moves to be
made. There's contracts to be signed
on the television front and elsewhere.
And so, we will keep an eye on it and see what happens with
everything fascinating times in college sports.
Any final thoughts before we wrap up, Zack.
I mean, it is it is fascinating and it's one of those times we
hear a lot of people say it's destroying the game.
I think it's remaking college sports.
That doesn't mean it's going to be better or it's going to be
worse and I'll say what I've always said, which is long as
seven and a half million people tuned in to watch Ohio, State
Penn State on a Saturday night in October, this will all still
be there. Just may look different to what
you expect. I do think you know and again,
this is this is just me trying to make an educated guess.
I really do think borrowing borrowing Notre Dame, doing
something unexpected based on 100 Years of precedent.
I think the next move is playoff expansion and then in the
meantime there's a lot that can go on around the periphery.
If I was the big 12, like I said, I would be hammering at
least half of the Pac-12 right now and sit, like, you know,
just calling the Rocky Mountain schools.
There's an example, Arizona, Arizona, State Utah, Colorado,
let's bring in Salt Lake City Denver, you know, Phoenix.
And let's just be, you know, the Go West Conference.
You know what, let's be the conference of pioneers or
whatever. I don't know what you call it,
but, you know, the Oregon Trail conference basically, because
you'd still be able to lay claim to Houston San Antonio Dallas on
the city. Now, you again, you'd be adding
Phoenix, you'd be adding, you know, I mean they're be
secondary markets in there like Tucson and Reno.
And I mean, to some extent Las Vegas and, you know, certainly I
mean, Denver is the big fish in Colorado, but it's not the only
like populated area of Colorado, so there will be stuff that
happens on the periphery. But this is, this is going to be
driven by the SEC in the Big Ten and I think both of those
schools, both of those conferences.
Unless Notre Dame does something is open to doing something?
I think both of those conferences, what makes the most
sense to me is to wait for the playoff to figure out what you
want to play off to look like possibly tear up, the old
contracts and just sign new ones.
Then go back and say, okay, under this structure, how big
shark conference be? And who do we need?
Do we need Clemson? Do we need North Carolina?
Do we need organ? Doing in Washington?
That's what I think you get. You kind of go, you know, maybe
a little bit further afield that way.
And not, you know, I mean it's going to be fascinating.
I've also seen that 40 wrote this and, you know, I trusted
Pat knows more about some of this than I, a lot of this than
I do. You know, he's sort of threw out
the idea of like, what if there's gonna be a lot of really
academically oriented schools here, that may wind up, cut
adrift, you know, Duke, like Forest potentially Notre.
Stanford Cal. What if they try to go do some
try to be some sort of, you know, ivy league on steroids and
and it's not going to make them the money that the SEC of the
Big Ten will make but you know, maybe it allows them to
re-emphasize academic somehow. Like I said, the big thing for
me was just that this move felt like the last one that knocked
down whatever the remaining sort of barriers were to college.
It's just just tearing it up and starting over in a lot of
respects and I think that's, I think.
Now we are going to see like the root and Branch change that is,
I think we are now seeing going to see the root and Branch
change that people have been sort of theorizing for the last
10 to 15 years. And certainly last two years, I
think we are going to think now that stuff's going to become
reality. Step by step, we'll keep an eye
on it as it moves forward and we'll probably have Zach back
on. It has some point soon if
additional dominoes fall, as we'll keep an eye on what's
going on in South Bend and elsewhere here over the next
couple of months. Zach awesome and thanks for
joining me on the podcast, as always looking forward to
talking to you sports with you in the future.
Thanks for having me is always good to be back, it's never
never dull, never not once. Thanks all you folks for
listening in and thanks home-field apparel our
presenting sponsor here on the back home network for Zach.
I'm Galen this is Crimson, cast will catch you folks on the flip
side? Bring back the Bison.
So long everybody.