You're listening to the Back Home Network presented by Home
Field Apparel. Welcome back to Crimson Cast
Full. GAIL and Clavio are joining you.
Here. It is Thursday, November 7th and
a big week for Indiana football. It's a take on Michigan and what
is a game that has a lot of implications for IU football
coming up here over this weekend.
Big game, marquee match up on CBS Sports.
You got Michigan coming into town.
You got Indiana on the precipice of something truly, truly
outstanding. And we're gonna talk about all
of that on today's show as we've got our friend Taylor Lehman
back with us from Bite Sized Bison as we're going to do our
now customary Thursday night slash Friday morning breakdown
of what to expect in the game. Taylor, good to have you back
again. How you doing?
I'm good. Thanks for having me on.
Yeah. You know, I, I love being on the
show, of course, and I always appreciate you having me on, but
I don't necessarily have a Crimson cast to listen to when I
am on the on this show. So I could I could go back and
listen to this show again, but I I avoid doing that anymore so.
I I don't think there's any shame in being like I was on
that show. I am going to listen to that
thing. That's totally fine as far as
I'm concerned. But well, it's a couple of good
shows that got recorded today. Of course, Crimson Cash out and
then Scott had a great interview with Jeremy Gray, which I'd
recommend everybody listen to as well.
So go back on the feed, check that out.
But we're going to dive into the numbers here for IU football.
We did this last week. It's funny Taylor, we did that
Michigan State preview. I had a bunch of people in the
day and 1/2 after that between that and the start of the game
who were like, man, I was really worried, but I felt much better
after listening to your podcast. And so hopefully we can make
people feel better again with this one.
This is a fascinating game. We're going to talk about it
here in just a second. First of all, folks, just a
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You know, and we're talking about we're talking about the
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post season and, and obviously the Ohio State game as well.
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All right, Taylor, we got a lot to talk about with this game, so
let's go ahead and jump into it. So Indiana comes into this
contest, they're nine and O, they take on a Michigan team
that is not 9 and O Michigan 5:00 and 4:00 on the season.
And this is one of those games I I always love when you know, if
you're a subscriber to bite sized Bison, you'll know this
and some of you on the audience already are.
I always wait for Taylor's like preliminary grid that he puts
out the the worksheet, the advanced stat preview, I guess
is what he technically calls it that lays out, you know, the
Indiana's offense versus their opponent's defense, Indiana's
defense versus their opponent's offense, individual stats for
each of the categories. You know, last week I waited and
then it popped for Indiana, Michigan State and I was like,
oh, this is a much more favorable matchup than I thought
it was statistically. So I was really curious what the
Michigan matchup would look like.
And again, it's a much more favorable matchup in terms of
like strength versus weakness and whatnot than what I would
have anticipated. We're going to dive into all of
these, but I guess as you as you put this together and it first
formulated on the page, like what came to mind when you were
trying to think of how to categorize or describe this
particular matchup and what to potentially expect in the game.
Yeah, So, you know, I always knew that.
OK, So Galen, I've been looking at the numbers all season
because I've been putting the data, the data visualizations
together. And I knew that I knew that
Michigan's conversion rates weren't good.
I, I knew that they were a rushing team.
I knew that the, the advanced analytics did not really like
Michigan much this year, which you know, being 5:00 and 4:00.
So would suggest that as well. But the, the thing that I was
actually surprised did not show up much and there's not really
anything necessarily dedicated to it, But I, I have a defensive
line havoc chart that I fill out that or that I, you know, update
every week in the recaps and Michigan always does super well
in that. And so I was surprised to see
throughout the season, I was surprised to see how well
they've been creating havoc with their defensive line, but how
that's not really translating to wins necessarily.
And then, you know, putting together the chart, I was like,
OK, where is this going to show? And it didn't really show
anywhere. They, they have like NFL, like
several NFL guys on the defensive line, which I've
outlined in the preview and, and it doesn't really show in their
defensive profile, at least, you know, the the one that I put
together. And I was kind of, you know,
trying to piece that together in my head.
And I was like, you know, how, how does that work?
But I think teams are just able to scheme around it.
And yeah, I think Indiana's even better suited than some of the
opponents they played to scheme around it.
So. So a lot of people that listen
to the podcast know this, but just so we're all on the same
page, explain havoc to the other.
So havoc is a measure of what the defense is able to do when
they're racking up what. Yeah.
So it's it's a different measure for for different places.
I like to include any time the defensive line is disrupting a
play. So a lot of a lot of places they
just include sacks, tackles for losses and that and those leave
it that. But I also include like passes
defended 'cause they'll bat passes.
Quarterback pressures is a big one that I like to include
because if you're disrupting a quarterback's comfort, you're
you're causing havoc. So mine's a little bit more, it
has a little more breadth, I guess.
And so, yeah, that's the idea of a havoc.
Havoc instance is whenever there's some sort of disruption
that is caused by, you know, the defense for that group.
So when you talk about this Michigan team, I mean, it's one
of the things we've talked about and, and you actually have a
really nice chart in this week's game preview where you lay out
the sheer amount of talent that Michigan has when you relate it
to high school recruiting rankings and whatnot.
And obviously that's not a like for like in terms of the actual
talent, but it's a good overall metric.
You know, Michigan is is basically tied with USC in terms
of composite talent in the Big 10.
Ohio State's the clear leader. Oregon's behind them.
Penn State is ahead of USC and Michigan barely.
And then it's like Nebraska, Indiana's like close to the
bottom. Only Rutgers and Illinois have
less accrued talent. Northwestern has more than
Indiana does, like Maryland does.
So anyway, all of that to say, you know, the, the hallmark of a
lot of Michigan teams has been their ability to simply out
talent their opponents on both sides of the ball.
And yet, whereas the last three vintages of Michigan teams have
really been able to do that under Jim Harbaugh, the Charon
Moore Michigan team that we've got this year is really
struggling across a number of metrics.
And it's interesting because like you said, like even though
we have seen I, I think a lot of this seems to manifest itself in
Michigan being able to make plays early in drives or early
in down sequences where they're making great stops on 1st down.
But it appears to melt away as they get further into the drive
chart, which leads them to kind of keeping their opponents from
scoring a ton of points, but not keeping them from scoring the
points or gaining the yards that they need to to gain an
advantageous position over Michigan.
Would would that be a good summation of things?
Yeah, yeah, I think so. And you know, I think that
probably is the biggest threat honestly just is Michigan's
talent because they do have a ton of talent.
And so, you know, when you're thinking about, you know, plays
on a micro level, that talent can be disruptive.
So I think that the the talent really is, is a a threat,
obviously. But the the coaching really, and
I wrote this in the in the preview as well, but the
coaching really seems to be letting down the talent on the
roster. You know when, when, when you
have a lot of high talent, but you don't.
I wouldn't even say, I wouldn't even say it's just not a good
conversion rate. It's like a terrible they have
terrible conversion rates on both sides of the ball and it
just seems like a coaching issue.
Just to just to classify this, so conversion rate is ultimately
when you, when you talk about it like it's the percent of of
first downs or scoring plays on either side.
So how many are you gaining if you're an offensive team?
How many are you allowing here if you're a defensive team?
So Michigan on the season, the conversion rate they're allowing
on defense is 74.3%, which is 92nd in the country.
Coming into this week of football, their offensive
conversion rate is 71.2%, which is 87th in the country.
And just to compare, like what Indiana does on defense, the
conversion rate they've allowed has been really impressive,
62.4% on defense, that's 13th in the country.
And on offense, their conversion rate is 80.3%, which is 23rd in
the country, which isn't quite as good as their defensive
conversion rate stopped, but it's still pretty good.
And it's really fascinating because like you said, like
Michigan is clearly more talented, but Indiana to this
point has demonstrated like a much clearer game plan and much
better preparation in games versus what Michigan has shown
in basically the same time span. Yeah, yeah, and, and, and I want
to add real quick conversion rates.
The reason why I include them is because that shows how well
A-Team can move the ball. And, and a lot of times once
they get down into the red zone, then they struggle with that.
But I have a chart that also disaggregates all of those.
So it shows how it ends, how how their conversions, how their
conversion rates are dispersed. And also when they don't
convert, how do they end? But anyway, yes, you're right.
The, I think a lot of it comes from just a lack of experience
and, and, and you know, Sharon Moore, he had never been a head
coach at any level before he took this job.
And he honestly, he reminded me a lot of Desean Foster Galen
when we had talked about him before how he was just very
contained to UCLA. Sharon Moore.
I mean, he, he, I think he worked a bit.
He worked like a year or two at Louisville.
He was at Central Michigan for a bit, but then he got hired at
Michigan and then worked his way up there and, and, and it just
felt like, it just feels very similar to me.
And so the, and then the, the offensive coordinator as well.
I mean, the, he, he coached 2 years of FBS as in the FS as an
offensive coordinator at Old Dominion.
And now he's, he just happened to be the quarterbacks coach for
JJ McCarthy last year. And so he got promoted to OC and
it was just a big effort to of retain whatever was leftover
from the Jim Harbaugh era at Michigan.
And I don't think it's exactly working out for them.
Yeah, I mean, it's interesting because like if you look at
Michigan's wins so far this season, we talked about this a
bit on Bison chat earlier on in the week, like they're they're
five wins on the season. Maybe Fresno stayed at home 30
to 10 in the opening game of the year at the Big House.
And I mean, Fresno's only 5:00 and 4:00.
You know that that's not a team that's exactly left the world on
fire in in the Mountain West. They they beat Arkansas State.
Again, that's that's not a a great team.
They're five and three on the season.
They beat Southern Cal or USC, not to offend any of my Southern
California brethren, but they beat USC 27 to 24.
And at the time, that looked like a really big win for
Michigan. Now that USC is four and five
and, you know, has lost on the road to Maryland, has, you know,
lost on the road to Minnesota, It it looks less impressive
certainly than it did when Michigan did it originally.
They beat Minnesota. But that if you go back and
remember that game, even though that looks better because
Minnesota's six and three has played pretty well.
They've won four in a row since that loss.
The ending of that game was kind of controversial.
There were some calls on the onside kick at the end of the
game that didn't make a lot of sense.
There's a couple of other things.
And then Michigan also beat Michigan State, the team Indiana
just beat. But whereas miss, you know,
Indiana beat Michigan State 47 to 10, Michigan beat them 24 to
17. And even if you're going to take
the rivalry game thing and put it in the mix, it's like you
probably should be beating that Michigan State team at home by
more than seven points if you're a good football team.
And so you look at the losses Michigan suffered, none of them
are embarrassing per SE. I mean, they lose at home to
Texas 31 to 12. Texas is legitimately, you know,
a top ten team in the country. They lose at Washington.
And that felt like a big win for Washington at the time.
And it's progressively become less.
So the real kind of red flag game, I think was the 21 to
seven loss at Illinois, because as we've learned, Illinois is
not very good. Like they're they're kind of the
classic, we're going to beat everybody worse than us and lose
to everybody better than US type of team.
And then of course, this past weekend they played Oregon, I
would say better than a lot of people, myself included, thought
they would, but they still lost 38 to 17.
Like that still was not a particularly close game.
So you you take all that into account and then you look at the
statistics that Michigan's racked up, it's almost
surprising they've won as many games as they have.
You could kind of argue that the Southern California and
Minnesota games, there was some luck involved in the fact that
they were able to win both of those games.
They just haven't been that terribly impressive and it
hasn't been one particular area. Like a lot of times when a team
like Michigan is bad or a team like Ohio State is, is like
average, it's 'cause there's a glaring weakness.
And it doesn't, it's not like there's a glaring weakness on
this Michigan team. As the kids say, Taylor, they're
just kind of mid. Yeah, yeah, yeah, no, they they
and and interesting set that that that I found when I was
kind of researching them was in their five wins, they've won by
an average of eight points like that.
They're, they're not blowing anybody away and the, they've
lost three of the last four games.
And, and just the, and that USC game Galen that, that I really
feel like the getting them that early in the season was, was
really important as well, because they ran the ball a ton.
I think they passed like 12 times and then they ran for 290
yards. And then shortly after that,
teams figured out, oh, hey, that's what Michigan's going to
do. They're just going to run the
ball. So if we forced them into
passing the ball, if we sell out on, on, you know, defending the
run, then we can really, you know, neutralize that Michigan
offense and, and have a good chance.
So I expect Indiana to do something like that as well.
But yeah, like you were saying, it's like it's it's it's I
thought they would be better this year.
Really. I, I I, I, I remember before I
remember in pre season, I was like, you know, that could be a
game that Indiana could win. That's like kind of a winnable
game. You know that Michigan doesn't
look too good going into the season, but I didn't know it was
going to be like this. I mean, and we obviously like
our advanced stats here when we do our previews with Taylor, but
there are some basic stats that you just kind of scratch your
head about. This Michigan team in passing
offense is 17th in the conference.
And the only team that's worse than them in passing offense is
Iowa, who happens to not be very good at offense, like
historically and I believe as a former Michigan quarterback in
their midst. So you know, Michigan on the
season they've they've attempted 210 total passes.
Now compared to Indiana, Indiana has not attempted at that many,
relatively speaking. Indiana's only attempted 250.
But the difference is Michigan's 210 attempts has resulted in 134
yards a game. Indiana's 250 attempts has
resulted in 284 yards a game. Michigan has 10 touchdowns, 9
interceptions. Indiana has 23 touchdowns and
four interceptions. Indiana averages 10.2 yards per
attempt in passing. Michigan's averaging 5.8, which
is the worst in the conference. It's worse than Iowa.
It's worse than Northwestern. It's a passing offense that's
just kind of dead in the water. And it's fascinating because,
you know, I mean, they've, they've had some issues.
They don't really have a quarterback.
They've had three quarterbacks start games so far this season
and play major minutes. One of them has retired from
football, the erstwhile Jack Tuttle, who many of you are
quite familiar with in Indiana land.
But you go down their list and it's like in the games they've
won, it's in the USC game, they they attempted 12 total passes
and completed seven of them for 32 yards.
In the Minnesota game, they attempted 10 or 18.
They completed 10 for 86 yards. You know, and it's, it's
interesting because in the games they've had to pass in
Washington, IL. Ohio State, excuse me, Oregon,
they've attempted 2532 and 25 in those games and they lost all
three of them and they weren't particularly impressive in any
of those games. The Illinois game is one of only
two games all season where they've cracked the 200 yard
barrier in passing. So when you look at that and you
look at the Indiana defense, which is proven, you know,
they're not the best pass defense in in the conference
necessarily, but they're they've gotten so much better over the
course of the last few weeks in terms of being able to be
opportunistic and pass defense. You got to be licking your lips
a little bit. If you're Indiana, going in and
knowing like this is not that hard of a pass offense to shut
down. And it allows you to channel so
much more of your coaching attention into stopping the run,
which is really what Michigan likes to do.
Yeah, yeah, no, definitely the the, yeah, the, the it's really
interesting, Galen. There's a there's a a chart that
I make that's like it measures EPA per target and then the Big
10 and amongst wide receivers. And I was looking at the other
day and I'm like, am I doing something wrong here?
There's like no Michigan on here.
And I looked at this because like, you know, to to keep it,
you know, fair to the guys that are on there.
I have a cut off. You have to have so many targets
to to qualify to be on the chart and they don't have a single
receiver that has 30 targets this year.
And I'm like, wow, that is insane.
And it's because they target their tight end all the time.
Like Colston Loveland is, is probably the maybe the second
best tight end in, in power 4 to, to Tyler Warren at Penn
State probably. But the, it's really
interesting. And, and really that like I saw,
I saw a Michigan fan tweet last week that they they're like, we
have to have something other than slant to Loveland.
And I was like, oh God, that's that's not a good sign.
So yeah, the, the, I think I think it's scheme.
I think it's also, you know, the quarterbacks I I don't think are
very high quality. I think their offensive line is
a bit inconsistent. But yeah, I mean, ultimately I I
think it is scheme, you know, I think I think when you do have
the talent that you have at Michigan, and I don't think
their quarterbacks are terrible. But I will say, you know, the
Dave Davis Warren has played better in his last couple games.
He hasn't thrown an interception in two games since he came back
as a starter. So yeah.
But now, yeah, you mentioned like Colston, Loveland is is
clearly the the bright spot in the receiving game. 49 catches,
523 yards. Averages about 6 catches a game.
4 touchdowns on the season, yes, 49 catches.
The next closest guy is Samaj Morgan, who has 21 and the next
closest guy from that has 12. There's two guys Donovan Edwards
and Tyler Morris with 12. So it's just not a it's not a a
feature of the offense that's getting used very much.
Now, running wise, Michigan, you know, Khalil Mullins, 710 yards.
Donovan Edwards has 467 yards. Alex Orgy is a quarterback has
227 yards. But what's interesting is like,
as much as Michigan has had to rely on the run, they're not the
best running team in the Big 10. Like if you're going to have
that offensive performance in the passing game, you kind of
have to be. But they are 8th in the in the
conference in yards per game, 14186 yards, 11 touchdowns.
Indiana on the ground, by comparison's sake, has 17127
yards and an insane 32 touchdowns.
I we need to wait, we need like an ESPN 30 for 30 just on
Indiana's rushing attack and the amount that they've scored.
But it it's a stark contrast given that Indiana does not lean
like exclusively on their running game.
The fact they've been able to scheme and play as well as they
have, while Michigan, who has to lean on their running game, has
not been able to, is really fascinating to think about,
especially now that we've got a pretty large sample size to
consider for the season. Yeah, yeah, it's, it's, it is
really interesting. It's the the rushing attack is,
is good Mullings and Mullings and Edwards are, are very, very
good running backs. They're actually, it's
interesting given the the, you know, we talk about the
distribution of carries in in Indiana's backfield and, and
it's kind of the same for Michigan between those two
running backs that there are 20 Big 10 running backs that have
80 or more carries and they're two from Indiana and two from
Michigan. So the only two teams that have
running backs to the 80 plus carries.
But yeah, no, the, I think Indiana's tackling is going to
have to be very strong. You know, those they're, they're
tough guys. Donald Evers is a big guy
mulling his runs really strong. So they're going to attack.
I mean, I think the entire offensive philosophy for
Michigan is going to be attacking the interior of the
defense, whether that's passing to the tight ends in the middle
of the field, trying to get that open space behind the the
offensive line or defensive line to the second level or just
running right at them. So I think that's, I think it's
going to be crucial that Indiana is, you know, they, they don't
allow them to, to get a lot of yards after contact because
Mullins especially can and Edwards is also a very talented
runner. But yeah, it, it is really
interesting. I, you know, Galen, I covered
Donovan Edwards recruiting quite a bit because Ohio State was
very much in on him back when I was, you know, covering Ohio
State recruiting and super, super nice guy.
I, I texted you actually really today, I'm like, I actually
really like Donovan Edwards as a person, but the he, he, I, I
keep waiting for him to kind of explode, but he just hasn't
gotten the opportunity to at Michigan.
The talent is there. He can work in the pass game.
You just mentioned him as one of their leading receivers with 12
catches. And you know, I, I, and he's
their backup running back. And so, you know, these two guys
are just, they're very talented. It just depends on how that
offensive line can work against this Indiana defensive line.
Or is the Indiana front in general?
Because I don't, I don't, I don't know if the cornerbacks
could be tested all that much for Indiana.
So, you know, the safeties, the linebackers, they're going to be
able to cheat a little bit. And then it'll it'll be
interesting to to see how much progress Michigan, Michigan can
make it. And that might also be, you
know, what we were talking about earlier, Galen.
I mean, if you're going to have a very interior centric
offensive scheme, it needs to be really effective like in in the
Big 10, especially because if you're not really able to get to
the perimeter teams are, you know, everybody talks about, you
know, packing the baseline and and basketball teams can do the
same thing and and in the box. So, you know, I think that's
partially why, you know, Michigan wants to run the ball,
but they're not super effective because they don't really put
their guys in the best position. So yeah, I know kind of kind of
covered a lot of different things there when we were just
talking about the running backs. But yes, Bowlings and Evers.
I, I, I, I do like those too. And, and so Indiana's going to
have to be very fundamentally sound.
If you're looking for offensive bright spots for Michigan, it's
like there's two things you can zero in on.
One is their success rate in rushing, which is is decent.
It's 3230 second in the country, 45.2%.
The other is line yards in rushing like that, they, they do
get a good push and you'd expect that 'cause they have a really
talented and, and big offensive line.
They don't do very well in past production, but they, they don't
pass the ball that much. So it's not as big of a deal,
you know, And so I think like if you're looking at Michigan and
you're trying to figure out, OK, how would Michigan win this
game? What would be the scenario that
would play out for for Michigan to win this game for Indiana
struggle Like Michigan can keep the ball on the ground if they
can gain, as you've noted, like they don't do a lot of chunk
plays. They don't have a great
explosive play rate. You know, they do pretty well
once they get the ball to midfield and beyond.
But you know, it's getting to that point.
But if they can, if they can maintain success on the ground
and get a consistent push against Indiana's defensive
line, that's really their route. Like, you know, they're they're
they're gonna have to chew clock.
They're not going to be able to get into a track meet with
Indiana. They're going to have to force
turnovers, which they frankly have not been very good at so
far this season. But they got to figure out a way
to get the ball out of Indiana's hands.
They got to do some things defensively, which we'll talk
about in a second. But like, offensively, they've
got to run the ball and they've got to kind of impose their will
physically on Indiana, which feels like a thing that would
normally happen because it has historically happened.
But the way this Indiana defensive line is playing, the
way they played, especially last week on the road at East
Lansing, it's hard to envision a scenario where this particular
Michigan offense is able to impose their will to the degree
they will need to against Indiana to figure out a way to
to score enough points to come up away with a victory.
Yeah, no, absolutely. And and I think that there's
there's AIII just have these visions of Indiana surrendering
space to rushing attacks on the interior, you know, from earlier
in the season, whether it was Charlotte and I think Maryland,
there was quite a bit of that too.
They haven't as much in recent weeks since then.
But that just kind of sticks with me.
So, so part of me is like, you know, maybe there is some sort
of, maybe the door is ajar for Michigan to be able to do
something like that. I, I, I don't necessarily have
confidence in their coaching staff to scheme something like
that. I guess Indiana, but the, I just
think Indiana has a huge advantage when it comes to just
coaching. Like when you're talking about
adversarial coaching, I think Indiana has the advantage.
So I'm, I'm not super optimistic for Michigan to be able to do
that, but you know, there's room for it.
And so yes, you're right. That's that's how they're going
to try to win an offense. Defensively, this is a tough
game for Michigan because this Indiana offense is so good.
I mean, I I don't know that IU fans fully understand the
playground that they're watching this Indiana offense play on.
I mean, this is, I mean, we're we're not talking about you had
a great chart a couple of weeks ago or last week that
illustrated like the the top or maybe it wasn't.
Yeah, I forget whose chart it was.
I think I'm going to give you credit for it.
But Brian. Yeah.
But the top offenses of the last five years of college football
and Indiana was like right up there among the very best.
And it's like you, you kind of have to pick your poison.
I mean, they're the most successful passing team in terms
of EPA in the country. They're 19th in rush.
They're great in early downs. Like they pick up, they pick up
first downs sooner than they should.
They're amazing once they get to midfield, they they get great
field position, which is largely a product to special teams and
defense. I mean, they just do so many
things well. And Michigan, and this is
probably the biggest surprise to me.
Like I, I'm not shocked that Michigan's struggling on
offense. Like that's always kind of in
Michigan's DNA to some degree. Michigan normally doesn't
struggle like this on defense. And you know, they're not
terrible in any defensive category, but they're very, very
average. You know, they, they don't
defend the pass terribly, but they don't defend it well.
They don't defend the rush terribly, but they don't defend
it well. And you know, the, the one thing
they tend to do is they do tend to force you to 3rd downs, but
then they're terrible at stopping you on 3rd down.
They're one of the worst teams in the country.
They're 116th in the country in defensive third down success.
So I, I say all that because if you look at Michigan's schedule,
they, you know, and, and who they played, I guess the thing
that sticks out to me the most is, you know, they, they kind of
got lucky that they faced Minnesota when they did because
Minnesota hadn't quite gotten their offense rolling US CS.
Their offense has not been very good.
You know, Illinois's has been kind of sort of there.
The best offenses they've faced have been Texas.
They allowed 31 points to Texas and Oregon, they allowed 38
points to Oregon. They probably should get some
credit for only allowing 31 and 38 points in those games.
But I would argue Indiana's offense is as good as Oregon's
at this point and better than Texas's.
And that does not bode well if you're Michigan, especially
since you have to go to Memorial Stadium to play this offense.
And just like you were saying earlier, again, just the the way
that they're going to try to find success in offense is not
going to be able to keep up with with Indiana if they get
rolling. So if Indiana gets up, if
Indiana gets up early like they've done so frequently, I
mean, we could be looking at, you know, lights out for
Michigan early in this game because I good luck passing.
I don't. Know, well, that's the thing,
like Ben Wittenstein, like what he he called in your, in your
column for in, you know, Michigan, Indiana to score like
30 points in the first half. And I'm like, Ben, come on back.
But but I'm like, well, maybe I mean, this is, this is what's
going to be fascinating to me. You and I were debating this a
little bit early on in the week. Like, how does Indiana, Yeah,
'cause you 'cause you want to get up early if you're Indiana
and, you know, you want to put Michigan on their back foot
because we, you know, when you look down the schedule, the most
points that Michigan has scored against a Power 4 opponent all
season is 27. And, you know, Indiana, like
they find 27 points in the couch cushions.
You know, when they're when they're fishing around for their
keys in the morning, you know, And if so, if you can, if
Indiana 4 touchdowns puts you beyond anything Michigan's been
able to do offensively against a power for school so far this
season. So how does Indiana best attack
this Michigan defense who does have talent?
And, you know, it's like, you know, how do you scheme so that
you're doing it the most efficiently?
Because the further you get Michigan behind in the count,
the harder it's going to be for them to to mount a legitimate
challenge the rest of the game. Yeah, yeah.
And, and like you had said earlier, Michigan is really good
early in offensive series when it comes to defense.
So yeah, we we were talking about this before recording,
which was like how, how, yeah, like you just asked how do they
attack the defense? And I think it's a great
question. And the crazy thing is this is
where I've been so impressed because the the Indiana staff,
they're they don't have they don't have one thing they go to
it is they're very multiple, like you've already said, like
they could, I mean, they could run straight into the teeth this
defense, which is what they did, I guess the Brassica and I was
just Florida was not expecting that.
And and they did it really effectively.
And then, you know, I don't know if I would be able to do that
against this again, team that the talent is just crazy on that
defensive line, especially the interior.
They have some great defensive tackles.
I mean, they have two defensive ends on both sides that just
they they're just amazing. But it's been super productive
too when it comes to quarterback pressures.
It doesn't necessarily translate to sacks, which is interesting.
But you know, the and then that's the thing too.
They, they, they're, they, they are probably the best, you know,
when it comes to applying pressure on the quarterback in
the conference. And, you know, does Indy, does
Indiana want to risk that? Do they do they want to risk the
pressure on Rourke or do they want to risk not getting much in
the running game on a first down play?
And, and so, you know, obviously we're talking about risk and,
and, and they're, they're scheming against this defensive
line, but I just, you know, I think we're gonna see a
challenge we haven't seen yet this season.
And so, you know, that means like Drew Evans and Bray Lynch,
those two are really gonna have to to show that, you know, the,
the the what we've seen from them on tape and the grades that
we're seeing from them from, from Pro Football Focus.
Are those accurate? Like are, are you this good?
And, and this it's going to be really interesting to see.
I'm I'm going to be watching the interior of the Indiana
offensive line because I think that's that's that's a huge
match up here. But yeah, I don't I don't know
how they attack them on early downs And, and it'll be it'll be
interesting to watch my. My philosophy was I think
they're going to they're going to use a lot of initial short
passing into space to try to spread the Michigan off or
defensive line out and and not let them just zero in on Justice
Ellison or Tyson Lawton. You know, it didn't seems like
the logical spot to be. I mean, it's interesting because
you mentioned like Michigan has a lot of talent in terms of the
pass rush and the defensive line, and yet they're only sixth
in the conference in Sachs. You know, you know who's first
in Sachs in the conference. Indiana.
Indiana by a significant margin. Indiana has six more sacks than
the second team in the I every time I look at these numbers,
I'm like, did someone like like screw up the data set?
Like what happened? Have you seen the tackles for
loss, Galen? It's insane.
I have like if you the the Indiana leads the conference in
tackles for loss with 69 of them.
The next closest team is Nebraska, who has 57.
Ohio State's only got 56 tackles for loss.
So just just to give you some comparison, it it makes no
sense. But if you if you look at what
Michigan has done against their opponents, it, it does feel like
if you have a good game plan, you've got a couple of different
ways that you can go about attacking.
So if you look at, you know, Michigan was really good against
mid opponents in rushing, like, you know, Fresno State only
gained 9 yards rushing, Arkansas State 58, USC 96.
Minnesota rushed the ball 25 times and gained 38 yards.
I don't know how the hell that's possible.
That's wild. But if you look at it like they
let they let 143 yards on the ground up versus Texas, 114 at
Washington, 187 at Illinois, 163 against Michigan State, 176
against Oregon. So even though they've got some
physically imposing guys, this is clearly maybe a defense you
can scheme the run against and be successful.
Because all of the good offenses that Indiana or that Michigan
has played against, with maybe the exception of Minnesota, who
I still don't understand as a football program, has figured
out a way to move the ball and gain somewhere around 4 to 5
yards a carry against this Michigan defense.
If you go to the passing game, what's interesting is they've
they've let up a lot of passing yards so far this season.
You know, they're the one game that they did a good job of not
letting up passing yards was Illinois.
But Illinois didn't need to pass the ball 'cause they were
running the ball so well. But the most recent, two of the
most recent four games, they let Washington pass for 315 yards
and a 70% completion percentage. They let Oregon pass for 294
yards and a 65% completion percentage.
And so it it to some degree, and even Michigan State, I mean,
Aiden Childs, who got smothered in the crib against Indiana last
week, pass for 74% completion percentage only at 189 yards.
But it it was like, you can clearly move the ball there as
well. And so this is where, like, I
struggle with this game because I look at this statistically and
I'm like, I don't know how Michigan competes just looking
at the numbers they've racked up, looking at the advanced
stats. Yet my brain won't let me go
there because of the helmets, because of just the aura of
Michigan and the fact that like, even when Indiana has had some
statistically equal or superior teams, they haven't been able to
execute. But man, everybody else has so
far this season against Michigan.
It doesn't feel like Indiana's going to necessarily be the
exception here. Yeah, yeah.
It's, you know, I just think, I think.
I know I've already touched on this a couple times, but I just,
I just think that this Michigan team just highlights the
importance for coaching in college football.
I there, there is, there's a ton of talent on this roster and,
you know, there are playmakers on this roster, but if it's not
if, if they're not put in the best positions to to succeed,
they're not going to. And so, yeah, like you were
saying, Galen, like you, you see the talent, you know that
there's NFL talent on this roster.
And, and like you're saying with the helmets and, and, and like
it's, it's easy. And my mind is doing this too.
It's easy to, you know, you take take statistics with a grain of
salt and be like, OK, yeah, this Michigan team is struggling and,
and, and understand that, you know, they're going to make some
plays, which they will make some plays, but how badly they're
struggling is, is really hard to get a grasp on.
And yeah, it's, it's it is really interesting.
And I think, yeah, I think, I think when I think what we're
really going to see is, is Indiana really dominate on in
the trenches? And, and I think with if they
are dominating in the trenches, I think this can get really
ugly. And, and I don't think Sig is
going to take his foot off the gas at all.
And this could be, I mean, this could be a game that's
celebrated for a while by Indiana fans.
And I and I get frightened when I hear that I really do, you
know, but it but it is no worth noting.
Michigan has only somehow how the hell this happens, like in
terms of scheduling. I'd love to get an answer.
Michigan's only played two Rd. games the entire season and they
lost both of them. They lost to Washington on the
road. They lost to Illinois on the
road. This is only their third Rd.
game. And but as you said, they've
lost three of their last four. And you just like even the
Michigan State game, it was hard to take a tremendous amount of
positives out of that game from Michigan, partially because of
the fight at the end and just kind of the the the general
screwball stuff that happens in that series.
But it was also, you know, Jack Tuttle retired right after that
game. They still don't seem to have
much of an identity. So, yeah, I mean, I think here's
the thing, I I'm I'm always concerned about Indiana when
they play brand name teams because I've just watched them
lose those games so many times. And yet when I look at this
game, what I see and what I feel and how I how I have come to
appreciate the way that this team and this coaching staff
approaches games, this coaching staff and the players on the
team relish taking opponents apart bit by bit.
And it's like, it's that thing that we've talked about on the
podcast where like Mike Kadic's talking about, well, we felt
Washington's will breaking as we got further into the game.
Or, you know, the the joy on, you know, from Justice Ellison
when he's talking about like the Red Sea parting against
Northwest or I guess in Nebraska.
Like this team just loves slowly, you know, you know,
taking an opponent apart bit by bit.
And I'm sure they've looked at the the film.
I'm sure they're very respectful of the talent on this Michigan
team. But they have to have looked at
these numbers and they have to look at what's going on in these
games and being like, man, if we just execute and do what we do,
we've got a real opportunity to win by a pretty significant
margin in this game. And you know, I as I've as much
as I've resisted that mentality, as I've looked at the numbers
and tried to formulate my own thoughts on the game, that has
become more and more to the forefront, Which I guess worries
me because it's like, it almost feels like it's too good to be
true in term of the match up. Because everything Michigan
struggles with Indiana does really well.
Yeah, yeah, and, and yeah, Galen, I, I I'm looking at the
opponent adjusted EPA that that Bud Davis releases out his his
EPA chart and Michigan's down there with with Maryland.
They're on the same tier as Nebraska right next to Illinois.
And yeah, it's, it's I mean, I think they're underneath UCLA
like that. They because UCL as had a had a,
you know, they had a tough, tough schedule.
But it's it is really interesting to to consider how
how poor this Michigan team could play in Bloomington.
Well, and, and one thing to note is like, if you're looking for a
match up that might be a good harbinger of what goes on with
this game, like watch the left side of Indiana's defensive line
because they're going up against the right tackle.
And Evan Link, who's one of the poorest graded offensive lineman
in college football this year, like he he's really struggled
and he and and he really struggles in pass blocking.
Now, if Michigan doesn't pass the ball that much, that's one
thing. But they may have to at some
point. And it's kind of like what
happened to the Michigan State game.
You could see that kind of scenario playing out where if
Michigan starts to fall behind and they have to pass the ball,
you could see Mikhail Kamara, CJ W, James Carpenter, like that
whole group just start to feast. Because even the I mean, outside
of the right guard, you know that that Michigan has got all
of their offensive line has just been kind of average.
But they're right tackle situations real bad.
And, and that's probably not something that they fixed in the
week between the Oregon game and this game.
No, no, yeah. And, and I, I, I do think the, I
do think they're off their offensive line.
You know, when, when they're, they, they are, they're when you
think about, when you think about the expectations with
Michigan offensive line, you think, OK, you know, very good
because that's just the way it always is.
But they are average to a little bit above average overall as a
unit, which is better than Indiana has played in most games
this season, right. So that is that is important to
note. But but yeah, it's it's not it's
not what we're used to seeing from a Michigan offensive line,
like you were saying. And yeah, if if you're if you're
looking at that match up on the right side of the line, I think
that'll be a lot of Lenell Carr on that side.
So that'll be that will be interesting to see.
But the, yeah, the I, I, I think that, you know, Mikhail Kamara
is playing out of his mind right now.
And I, I think he's, that's somebody, that's somebody to
watch on, on Indiana's defensive side for sure, especially in
passing situations. Yeah, ultimately, I mean that.
And then on the flip side, like can Michigan bother the Indiana
offensive line who has played so well this season?
It's been, that's been probably maybe the biggest revelation on
the whole team. But as you mentioned in your
piece, Michigan's D line is really talented and and
statistically racks up really well against the best teams in
the conference, including Indiana in terms of of
quarterback pressures and sacks and all of the things that that
you would normally see generated by by a good defensive line.
So those are the things to watch like a lot of this game as
normal with Michigan's going to be one of the trenches.
And how well can Indiana utilize all of the levers that they have
on offense to take some of that pressure off to back the defense
up a little bit, make them play deeper and and not be so keyed
in on trying to get into the backfield and tackle Curtis
Rourke and disrupt the passing game.
It's going to be a fascinating thing to watch.
And I'm very I'm really curious to see how Mike Shanahan decides
to attack this from a play calling perspective.
And this is, you know, what you've talked about many times,
Shanahan, just like being in his bag, you know, drive after drive
this season. It's been a great thing for IU.
This is probably, as you said, it's going to be the biggest
test just in terms of, you know, the just the numbers and what
the the particular parts of Michigan's defense have done.
But then again, we said that about Nebraska too, and that
ended up being the biggest mismatch of the whole year, one
could argue. So who knows?
I'm I, I cannot wait to watch this play out.
I'm very curious to see how Indiana ends up tackling it.
And it should be really fascinating 1.
The thing I appreciate about Mike Shanahan's play calling is
that he seems to have a deep well of plays for every
situation and, and he knows how they work together.
He just knows his own playbook really intimately, which is, you
know, kind of a low standard for an offensive coordinator.
But from what Indiana has seen, just like how like Rod Kerry
showed a little bit of it towards the end of last season,
how can you make plays build off of each other?
And just with all the misdirection and the RP OS and,
and, and the screen game and how, and some of the, the, the
pre snap motions that they have. And then also Curtis Rourke and
his his familiarity with it and and his you know, I don't know
how he learned it so quickly, but you know, how well he knows
the playbook is, is super impressive to me.
Just like, and I I tweeted this last week.
I said that Mike Shanahan must be the the best red zone schemer
in the country right now. This is some of his red zone
plays are just insane miles price that just he always cashes
in on some sort of like insane scheme play.
You know, it's an RPO screen to the sideline.
Curtis Rourke is throwing off his like throwing shoulder has
somehow and miles price is right there wide open or they're, you
know, it's some sort of mesh concept and miles price is
always wide open in the red zone.
I I don't understand. It's wild.
It really is it it it, it's something new.
And and I I I'll say like I was pleasantly surprised that the
you know, they they mixed 2 receiver like end arounds into
the last game. It's like, where's that been?
And and yet, you know, one of them went for a touchdown, the
other one almost went for a touchdown.
You know, they just keep throwing new wrinkles in.
I I think I I forget who I heard talk about that.
He was one of the national commentators might have been
Mike Golek Junior, who was like, this is this team keeps adding
things like they're, it's not like they're running like
advanced versions of the same stuff they were running in week
4. Like they're just like, yeah,
no, let's throw these wrinkles in that no one's seen.
And, and one can only wonder what they've got in the bag
waiting to be uncorked in this one.
It is. It makes IU offense appointment
television. And I hope all of you are
keeping those appointments because they're good
appointments. It is really cool seeing like
national pundits talk about Indiana's offense.
Like I see some people tweet videos when I follow a lot of
people who study football scheme and so the, you know, I'll see
them post videos of Indiana's offense.
I'm like, what is what? Then?
Then then Mike Goleg Junior like talking about Zach Horton and
Carter Smith and I'm like, what is happening here?
This is crazy. But yeah, their offense is so it
is, it's just so complex. But but it must not be that
complex to learn if if Kurdish work came in and all these
transfers came in, they just, they just must be really
effective at teaching and organizing and communicating
and, and, and Kurdish work. Obviously he's a dude, but you
know that I I'm very curious how, how that works exactly,
because yeah, they just keep adding things and I, I actually
Galen, I don't want to hold, I don't hold you too much longer,
but. I'm the one that invited you on
the podcast. What do you want, Taylor?
Yeah, the, well, the the Colorado's offensive
coordinator, I think Pat Shermer, he was talking, he was
talking in an availability earlier this week and he was
talking, he was asked a question about refinement versus, I can't
remember it like innovation or whatever.
You basically, you know, how much are you trying to fine tune
your offense versus how much are you developing and innovating
still? And he said you're doing a
little bit of both. And I was like, OK, well, that
really seems to check out Mike Shanahan.
And and with the way that things are running now, I'm not sure
how much fine tuning they're actually doing.
So they have room where they can add a bunch of things.
So well, yeah, I just find offensive play calling super
interesting. So Mike Shanahan is It's been a
treat to be able to watch him every single player he's called.
He has and and I mean the one thing I'll add to that before we
wrap up is I mean the offensive play calling's been amazing, but
what makes it work is the players willingness not just to
execute the plays, but to do the extra stuff.
And again, I think it was that Mike Gold junior video that came
out earlier this week. And like he went out of his way
to highlight how, yeah, the the play that Miles Price, the the
the end of round with Miles Price that almost scored a
touchdown. It was Zac Horton going out and
like selling out on the block. But it was also, I think Trey
Weddig going down and like blocking at three different
levels and like springing Price on two separate occasions.
And it is that level of buy in from the people that are doing
the blocking, including other receivers on these plays that
allows Mike Shanahan to do all the things that he does.
I mean, we've seen, I mean, look, we were both around for
the Kevin Wilson era. Like we've seen like smart play
calling. But if you don't have guys that
are bought in to the degree that this Indiana team has
demonstrated that they're bought in so far this season, it
doesn't work nearly as well. You know, a, a 35 yard gain
becomes an 8 yard gain because you don't have that block that
springs the guy for the extra yardage at the end.
And that, to me, it's like, you know, play and the play calling
again has been great. I'm not trying to take away from
that. But without that execution by
the players, it doesn't look nearly as great.
And you don't get the statistical benefits that you've
gotten, you know, without that extra effort.
Yeah, and, and just the depth to, I mean, Keyshawn Williams
leading the the wide receiving corps last week was a surprise
to me. So, you know, just being able to
turn to to these guys, I'm not really even sure how that's
decided. I don't, I don't know how it's
like, yeah, you know, we're going to keep going to Keyshawn,
Just it's happened. I don't.
I don't really know. Why does I I think a lot of it,
at least from, you know, having watched as many of the games
that I have, a lot of it is just OK, who's the defense deciding
that they're willing to leave alone?
And and that's where you end up going.
It's, it's, and it's wild to think about because it's, you
know, when we've seen, you know, it's like last week, Elijah
Sarat gets back onto things after that one catch game
against Washington. He has four catches, 59 yards, 2
touchdowns. And you're like, oh, OK, great.
You know, But, you know, you look at Omar Cooper.
Omar Cooper, He's had one catch the last three games, but it's
been a 36 yarder, a 42 yarder, and a 21 yarder.
He's almost become like, well, let's wait until they forget
about him on one play and then let's make sure to take
advantage of the fact that they've forgotten about him.
Meanwhile, it's like Miles Price has been probably the most
consistent receiver. He's got 28 catches on the
season. He has no game where he's caught
more than 4 balls in in a single game.
Miles Cross, who's almost like the forgotten Miles on this
team. He's been feast or famine.
He had 7 catches against Nebraska.
He's at He had one catch the last two weeks combined.
Didn't catch a thing in the in the Michigan State game.
So it really does feel like, you know, whose turn is it to step
up? And a lot of it comes down to,
well, the opposition is just not paying attention.
And again, it's like Keyshawn Williams didn't catch a ball in
the Florida International game, had 6 catches for 85 yards
against Michigan State. So I am, I'm both impressed by
the coaching staff and their willingness to like, bring
people in and be like, all right, we'll take what you're
giving us and we'll still gain enough yards to score.
But I'm also terribly impressed with the willingness of this
remaining group of receivers since we've, as you know, lost a
couple since the start of the season.
This group's willingness individually to say it's not my
day to catch balls, I'm going to go do other things and I'm going
to contribute to the team's success, and my day might come
later. And in almost every single case,
it has come later. Like no one's really been left
behind in the process. I want to add one more thing,
Galen, in a place where I think the playbook might expand is
with the slot receivers with Kashawn Williams and Miles
Price, which it might have already done that against
Michigan State. That's why my Keyshawn Williams
saw so many targets. But Miles Price is I can't
remember if it's fifth on the team and targets or 5th on the
team and routes run. I can't remember which one it
is. But either way, he is, you know,
not seeing the most opportunity, but he as the second most win
probability per target and on the team.
So, you know, a major heat check type of guy.
But at the same time, at JMU, this staff just really
prioritize their slot receivers. They would catch, you know, more
than 1000 yards receiving. And and I just think that
there's more that more to be discovered, more to be shown
when it comes to scheming the slot receivers.
I think, I think in the last stretch of this season, since
they're playing Michigan, they're playing Ohio State.
And whatever the postseason brings, I think we're going to
see a lot more creative scheming with the slot receivers, which
we've already seen a little bit of Miles Price, like I was
talking about a little bit ago. But I think there's more there.
And I think that's something especially some explosive plays
like downfield. I think there's more that they
haven't, they haven't on court yet, like you were saying.
One last note, statistically, So when we first started looking at
this game a few weeks ago, Indiana was about a 78 to 80%
favorite on FPI. They are an 86.8% favorite in
this game according to FP I I and it's I The one thing that's
fascinating and we've talked about this like the, the
hereditary nature of college football and how much is is
placed on prior success from previous seasons.
And that feeds into brand name. You know, S&P Plus has Michigan,
I think it's 30th in the country, at least they did
coming into the week and they're 46th in FPI.
So that, you know, it's one of those games again, where you've
got like a pretty big delta between Indiana and the team
that they're playing. What's exciting I guess is like
if Indiana wins this game by a sizable margin, this is a good
strength of schedule victory for Indiana.
It's a top half team. They're about the same as
Washington when you look at their rankings, like Indiana
could really, if they play the way that they need to in this
game, they could really do themselves a whole lot of favors
when that next College Football Playoff poll comes out next
week. Yeah, yeah.
That's this one thing that's, you know, we understand that a
lot of even some of the statistical models they'll favor
the brands, the historical winners and you know, obviously
humans subjectively will as well like the committee and there are
obviously some major drawbacks to that which Indiana fans have
felt. There are also some really great
upsides as well. Like you were just saying that
if you be a bad Michigan team, you're still beating Michigan
and you're still beating them by as much as you beat them by.
So, you know, obviously, like you were saying, Galen, this
whole conversation is very uncomfortable.
But but then when you're talking about like style points, it is
crucial. And and that is something that
they that, you know, I thought of when they kept racking up the
points against Michigan State, It's like you got to keep the
starters out there because you have to make statements every
single week as Indiana. And so, you know, this could be
another one. Obviously you know you have to
win, but you know how much do you win by?
That becomes a conversation. Yeah, I mean, at this point,
it's not style points, it's preservation points.
You know, it's real. It's it's having you think about
it like if it's why Indiana kept scoring against Michigan State,
they had to because we've seen that Indiana's not going to get
respect unless they unless they win these games by large
margins, which is what makes this game even more fascinating.
I think in terms of like, you know, what can Indiana do,
'cause you know, as much as we've laid out the the frailties
of Michigan over the course of this season, I mean, the reality
is they've. They haven't given up more than
38 points all season, and Indiana regularly scores over 38
points. Like, what does Indiana do?
You know, if that 38 points was an outlier?
I mean, the other games they've given up 3127212424.
I mean, this is a team that does a good job of keeping you under
wraps a bit. So it will be a really
fascinating test when you get beyond the wins and losses
thing, even though that itself will be a test.
But like, exactly how much muscle can Indiana flex in this
kind of a game so well? Stat that was like Indiana is
won by an average margin of 32 points, which is more than 101
teams average game. It's almost like, and it's one
of those stats where I'm like, I can't, I'm sure this is an
accurate stat, but I can't take myself seriously and and read
that and think that that's accurate.
It's, it's just it, it boggles the mind.
Yeah. So anyway, well, Taylor, this
was fun as always and informative.
And we really appreciate you taking the time to join us.
And folks, if you like this type of statistical analysis, like to
dig into the numbers like this, be sure to head over to bite
size, buy some throw subscription down.
You will not regret it if you're an IU football fan or just a
college football fan in general. So Taylor, thanks again.
We will not have you on next week for the preview 'cause it's
a bye week, but we will absolutely be having you on as
we get ready for the Ohio State game in a couple of weeks,
regardless of what happens this weekend.
So thank you again for joining us.
Yeah, thanks for having me on. And thanks to all you folks for
listening and we wish you the best of luck as you hopefully
voyage down to Bloomington to watch Indiana versus Michigan or
at the very least figure out where you're going to watch the
game at home or at a bar locally.
Our thanks to Home Field Apparel, our presenting sponsor.
Our thanks to Taylor Layman from Bite Sized Bison.
And I thanks to all of you folks out there in the audience.
I'm Galen Clavio. Thank you for listening to
Crimson cast. We will catch you folks.
On the flip side, bring back the Bison, stay never daunted.
It's all on everybody and goodbye YouTube.