1 00:00:35,400 --> 00:00:49,000 None. You're listening to the Back 2 00:00:49,000 --> 00:00:51,520 Home Network presented by Home Field Apparel. 3 00:01:01,440 --> 00:01:03,120 Welcome back to. Crimson cast Galen Clavier 4 00:01:03,120 --> 00:01:06,520 joining you. It is Sunday morning, March 5 00:01:06,520 --> 00:01:11,200 16th. It is tournament reveal day as 6 00:01:11,200 --> 00:01:15,080 we are about what, 8 hours or so? 7 00:01:15,440 --> 00:01:19,360 Roughly 7 hours from finding out who's going to be in the field 8 00:01:19,360 --> 00:01:22,320 who's. Not a lot of intrigue this year 9 00:01:22,320 --> 00:01:26,200 if you're an Indiana fan, as in addition to the coaching search 10 00:01:26,200 --> 00:01:29,080 that everybody's been following, you've got this big question 11 00:01:29,080 --> 00:01:31,480 mark about whether Indiana's going to get into the tournament 12 00:01:31,480 --> 00:01:34,840 or not. And we're going to dive right in 13 00:01:34,840 --> 00:01:38,600 to talking about that. And what I want to do 'cause I 14 00:01:38,600 --> 00:01:44,320 know a lot of you've got some questions, is talk through where 15 00:01:44,320 --> 00:01:47,200 I think the conversation is at with all of this. 16 00:01:47,960 --> 00:01:51,800 Talk through where everything has set up in terms of of the 17 00:01:51,800 --> 00:01:53,960 decision making process the committee's going to have to go 18 00:01:53,960 --> 00:01:56,640 through. And then figure out like, how do 19 00:01:56,640 --> 00:02:00,160 they go through the process of actually getting all these teams 20 00:02:00,160 --> 00:02:03,480 in the field? If you believe the messages that 21 00:02:03,480 --> 00:02:07,240 come from the selection committee representatives like 22 00:02:07,240 --> 00:02:10,720 Dan Gavitt yesterday was talking about this on CBS, They didn't 23 00:02:10,720 --> 00:02:14,560 even have all the at large teams set as of yesterday morning. 24 00:02:15,080 --> 00:02:18,560 So that means there's a lot of debate over a very small number 25 00:02:18,560 --> 00:02:20,800 of teams, whether or not they're in the field. 26 00:02:21,200 --> 00:02:24,920 And I think ultimately this is where we got to be a little bit 27 00:02:24,920 --> 00:02:31,040 cautious because we don't know what exactly is going to happen 28 00:02:31,040 --> 00:02:32,840 in terms of what the committee decides. 29 00:02:33,400 --> 00:02:35,320 And I'm going to talk about some of the trends and things like 30 00:02:35,320 --> 00:02:38,920 that, that we've seen at least over the course of the last 12 31 00:02:38,920 --> 00:02:42,000 hours in terms of the discourse around the brackets. 32 00:02:42,440 --> 00:02:44,920 But I want you all to understand first and foremost that the 33 00:02:44,920 --> 00:02:48,360 discourse around the brackets is not the same as the actual 34 00:02:48,360 --> 00:02:51,280 brackets. And what I mean by that is this. 35 00:02:51,280 --> 00:02:53,080 It's kind of like the IU coaching surge in a way. 36 00:02:53,280 --> 00:02:56,160 We have a lot of people talking about what they think is going 37 00:02:56,160 --> 00:02:59,800 to happen or what they're hearing rumored is going to 38 00:02:59,800 --> 00:03:02,120 happen with the coaching search. The people that we're not 39 00:03:02,120 --> 00:03:04,760 hearing from, other people actually engaged in the coaching 40 00:03:04,760 --> 00:03:06,560 search. Bracketology's not a lot 41 00:03:06,560 --> 00:03:07,920 different. I'm going to give you my 42 00:03:07,920 --> 00:03:11,320 opinions. You'll you've seen opinions from 43 00:03:11,320 --> 00:03:13,880 other places as far as who they think's going to get into the 44 00:03:13,880 --> 00:03:17,360 field and in what order. Ultimately, the biggest 45 00:03:17,360 --> 00:03:22,400 challenge in this whole process is not looking at the rules and 46 00:03:22,400 --> 00:03:25,080 based upon what the rules say and what the committee says that 47 00:03:25,080 --> 00:03:27,720 they're going to do, saying well, here's the teams that are 48 00:03:27,720 --> 00:03:30,320 going to be in the field. Based on that, it's trying to 49 00:03:30,360 --> 00:03:33,480 guess what the committee is going to do, which always means 50 00:03:33,480 --> 00:03:36,360 compromises. It always means that you might 51 00:03:36,360 --> 00:03:42,000 value 1 stat over another, and that might be important to you, 52 00:03:42,120 --> 00:03:45,120 and it might be important to a member of the committee, but it 53 00:03:45,120 --> 00:03:48,720 might not actually matter that much in terms of what actually 54 00:03:48,720 --> 00:03:51,160 happens. Because you're going to get 12 55 00:03:51,160 --> 00:03:54,280 voices in there, all of whom have different ideas about 56 00:03:54,280 --> 00:03:55,600 what's important in this process. 57 00:03:55,600 --> 00:03:58,160 So just wanted to set that expectation ahead of time. 58 00:03:58,160 --> 00:04:02,360 Most of you who have been along for the ride with us know all of 59 00:04:02,360 --> 00:04:04,160 those things already. First of all, just a quick 60 00:04:04,160 --> 00:04:06,000 reminder were brought to you by Home Field Apparel. 61 00:04:06,000 --> 00:04:08,520 Your place to go for the finest in college fashions, softest 62 00:04:08,520 --> 00:04:10,880 fabrics, coolest designs, the place to go if you're a college 63 00:04:10,880 --> 00:04:14,600 basketball fan. And already some great stuff out 64 00:04:14,600 --> 00:04:16,560 from Home Field Apparel over the course of the last couple of 65 00:04:16,560 --> 00:04:19,160 weeks. New shooting shirts, some new 66 00:04:19,160 --> 00:04:21,519 souvenir boxes, just a lot of really cool stuff. 67 00:04:21,760 --> 00:04:25,040 Likely more coming out during and immediately after the NCAA 68 00:04:25,040 --> 00:04:26,920 tournament. So head on over to Home Field 69 00:04:26,920 --> 00:04:28,920 apparel.com. Follow them on the socials. 70 00:04:29,160 --> 00:04:33,560 Use the code Home 23. Get 15% off your first order. 71 00:04:33,760 --> 00:04:36,560 Also a reminder, if you're watching this right now and this 72 00:04:36,560 --> 00:04:39,000 is really kind of a day of podcast, there's not going to be 73 00:04:39,000 --> 00:04:40,640 a whole lot of shelf life with this one. 74 00:04:41,600 --> 00:04:45,200 We're on YouTube, subscribe on YouTube, just search for back 75 00:04:45,200 --> 00:04:47,280 home network. You can find Crimson cast there 76 00:04:47,280 --> 00:04:50,080 you can find assembly call there you can find the dribble Dr. you 77 00:04:50,080 --> 00:04:52,560 can find the doing the work podcast. 78 00:04:53,480 --> 00:04:58,760 Just a ton of things going on in terms of, you know, different 79 00:04:58,760 --> 00:05:01,680 shows, different things to watch and you can subscribe right 80 00:05:01,680 --> 00:05:03,040 through that. We're also on sub stack 81 00:05:03,040 --> 00:05:05,840 crimsoncast.substack.com. Feel free to. 82 00:05:06,440 --> 00:05:08,800 Subscribe it's free. We'd love to have you in the 83 00:05:08,800 --> 00:05:13,000 community Anyway, let's dive in and let's let's just I'm going 84 00:05:13,000 --> 00:05:15,920 to give you where my bracket is at right now and then I'm going 85 00:05:15,920 --> 00:05:19,840 to walk you through the thought process that I had to get to 86 00:05:19,840 --> 00:05:22,440 that level of things and. I'm going to say. 87 00:05:22,440 --> 00:05:26,080 Right off the bat, it is very possible that what I come up 88 00:05:26,080 --> 00:05:29,120 with here is not going to be the ultimate decision, but this is 89 00:05:29,120 --> 00:05:31,000 how I'm analyzing it. I'm going to show you all the 90 00:05:31,000 --> 00:05:33,600 metrics and everything that we're looking at that led me to 91 00:05:33,600 --> 00:05:37,520 this point, and then we can talk about what the implications are. 92 00:05:37,520 --> 00:05:40,200 There's a couple of bid thief possibilities today. 93 00:05:40,200 --> 00:05:43,080 We'll talk through that as well. So let me go ahead and get this 94 00:05:43,080 --> 00:05:45,200 called up for those of you that are watching along. 95 00:05:46,120 --> 00:05:48,000 And again, if you're listening to this, you may want to 96 00:05:48,000 --> 00:05:50,960 consider switching over to Spotify because you've got video 97 00:05:51,480 --> 00:05:54,280 enabled there, whereas we don't have that with Apple Podcast, 98 00:05:54,280 --> 00:05:55,280 unfortunately. All right. 99 00:05:55,600 --> 00:05:58,600 So we had a bunch of changes in terms of who the auto bids were. 100 00:05:59,840 --> 00:06:03,120 And obviously we've got some things squared away now in terms 101 00:06:03,120 --> 00:06:05,320 of we know St. John's won the Big East, we know 102 00:06:05,480 --> 00:06:09,520 Houston won the Big 12. I've got Michigan in right now 103 00:06:09,520 --> 00:06:11,520 as the the prohibitive. Or the the. 104 00:06:11,560 --> 00:06:14,640 The probable favorite for the Big 10, these things only matter 105 00:06:14,640 --> 00:06:17,320 in terms of we have your auto bids and we have your at larges 106 00:06:17,320 --> 00:06:20,040 and obviously those two things have to reconcile with each 107 00:06:20,040 --> 00:06:22,760 other looking at the at large selections. 108 00:06:22,760 --> 00:06:25,040 Don't worry too much about the order here. 109 00:06:25,040 --> 00:06:27,240 And for those of you who who can't necessarily see, I'm going 110 00:06:27,240 --> 00:06:31,520 to try to zoom in a little bit. Are at large selections right 111 00:06:31,520 --> 00:06:34,880 now. My last four in the field are 112 00:06:34,880 --> 00:06:39,600 Vanderbilt, San Diego State, Texas and North Carolina. 113 00:06:40,560 --> 00:06:44,560 And I'm going to try to walk you through why I feel like those 114 00:06:44,560 --> 00:06:46,280 are going to be the last four teams. 115 00:06:46,680 --> 00:06:50,920 Hoping internally that I'm wrong and that the criteria that the 116 00:06:50,920 --> 00:06:53,160 committee will use will be different and it'll actually 117 00:06:53,160 --> 00:06:56,600 allow for IU to be in IU. Right now I have as the first 118 00:06:56,600 --> 00:07:02,120 team out and I think that it's important to remember that, you 119 00:07:02,120 --> 00:07:04,480 know, they've been kind of floating around this area for 120 00:07:04,480 --> 00:07:07,920 the last week or so. So when you start off going back 121 00:07:07,920 --> 00:07:12,280 to say a week ago after that Ohio State win, I think Indiana 122 00:07:12,280 --> 00:07:16,520 was about the 15 in and then they've kind of fallen back 123 00:07:16,520 --> 00:07:18,840 largely because other teams have won some games. 124 00:07:18,840 --> 00:07:21,360 We had a, a couple of bid thieves, including the, the 125 00:07:21,400 --> 00:07:25,280 Colorado State getting in. So now we find ourselves in a 126 00:07:25,280 --> 00:07:27,520 spot where we've got kind of a last four. 127 00:07:27,520 --> 00:07:31,120 So I want to walk through and look at some of the different 128 00:07:31,120 --> 00:07:32,080 teams that we're looking at here. 129 00:07:32,080 --> 00:07:34,480 So let me let me call up Vanderbilt 1st. 130 00:07:34,480 --> 00:07:36,280 I'm going to go through Vanderbilt and San Diego State 131 00:07:36,280 --> 00:07:39,480 really quickly because I, I do think that they have a better 132 00:07:39,480 --> 00:07:43,120 argument to get in. Vanderbilt has gotten 133 00:07:43,120 --> 00:07:45,760 progressively weaker. So if you look at Vanderbilt 134 00:07:45,760 --> 00:07:48,560 right now, Vanderbilt with a net of 48. 135 00:07:48,560 --> 00:07:50,360 I'm going to zoom in a little bit more so you guys can see 136 00:07:50,360 --> 00:07:53,040 this. Vanderbilt right now, a net of 137 00:07:53,040 --> 00:07:56,920 48, they're 37th and wins against bubble. 138 00:07:58,200 --> 00:08:00,800 They've got a fairly decent resume overall. 139 00:08:01,280 --> 00:08:04,640 Where they really shine at this point is they've got wins 140 00:08:04,640 --> 00:08:08,640 against Tennessee, Kentucky, Texas A&M, Mizzou, Ole Miss. 141 00:08:08,640 --> 00:08:13,040 That's five teams that are very solidly not just in the field, 142 00:08:13,400 --> 00:08:18,000 but all of those teams are right now, at least for me at the five 143 00:08:18,000 --> 00:08:21,320 seed line or above. You've got a win against Texas, 144 00:08:21,320 --> 00:08:23,720 who you're directly competing for a bid with. 145 00:08:24,200 --> 00:08:26,920 And then you've got a couple of other wins sprinkled in there 146 00:08:26,920 --> 00:08:30,000 that that are quad 2 but aren't necessarily that great. 147 00:08:30,000 --> 00:08:33,720 You look down the list, they've they have no losses below quad 148 00:08:33,720 --> 00:08:36,640 2. Vanderbilt's less impressive 149 00:08:36,640 --> 00:08:39,200 once you dig into their resume than I think everybody thought 150 00:08:39,200 --> 00:08:43,679 at first glance. But they've got enough here, I 151 00:08:43,679 --> 00:08:46,400 think and the, and the quality of wins is enough that I think 152 00:08:46,400 --> 00:08:47,760 they're going to be in good shape. 153 00:08:48,040 --> 00:08:52,520 I am a little bit interested to see if there's a big debate over 154 00:08:52,520 --> 00:08:55,080 Vanderbilt because I do think when you look at their resume, 155 00:08:55,120 --> 00:08:59,080 they've they've, it doesn't compare as quality wise as you 156 00:08:59,080 --> 00:09:01,520 might hope if you're a Vanderbilt fan. 157 00:09:01,600 --> 00:09:03,280 Let's go to the next team, San Diego State. 158 00:09:04,160 --> 00:09:06,880 So San Diego State, of course, losing in the Mountain West 159 00:09:07,080 --> 00:09:10,240 Conference tournament and there's actually a lot to not 160 00:09:10,240 --> 00:09:13,960 like about San Diego State, but the things that I think stick 161 00:09:13,960 --> 00:09:20,160 out for them are a their strength of schedule in the non 162 00:09:20,160 --> 00:09:21,720 conference was one of the best in the country. 163 00:09:21,720 --> 00:09:23,080 They'd go out and challenge themselves. 164 00:09:23,080 --> 00:09:25,000 Their overall strength of schedule 64th. 165 00:09:26,000 --> 00:09:29,480 They have one kind of unfortunate loss to UNLV that's 166 00:09:29,480 --> 00:09:33,440 a Tier 3, but beating Houston at. 167 00:09:33,920 --> 00:09:37,240 On a neutral floor, beating Creighton on a neutral floor. 168 00:09:37,560 --> 00:09:40,320 And then, you know, they, they have a win over Boise State, 169 00:09:40,320 --> 00:09:42,520 actually have two wins over Boise State, a team that they're 170 00:09:42,520 --> 00:09:46,320 directly in competition with. They beat UC San Diego, one of 171 00:09:46,320 --> 00:09:48,120 the very few teams to do that this year. 172 00:09:48,280 --> 00:09:52,080 They beat New Mexico. And you know, I, I look at all 173 00:09:52,080 --> 00:09:55,200 of that and I say, I don't think that they're going to be a team 174 00:09:55,720 --> 00:09:59,000 that struggles to get in. I think of the committee will 175 00:09:59,000 --> 00:10:01,680 look at them and say, we think you did enough overall with all 176 00:10:01,680 --> 00:10:06,200 of this 9 wins away from home as well certainly helps. 177 00:10:07,440 --> 00:10:10,520 So now we get into the the last few and this is where there's 178 00:10:10,520 --> 00:10:15,160 really, in my opinion, A5 team race for two remaining spots. 179 00:10:15,160 --> 00:10:19,280 So I'm going to start off with the the teams that are right now 180 00:10:19,280 --> 00:10:22,400 in my field and I'm going to try to explain why they're there. 181 00:10:22,880 --> 00:10:24,560 I'm going to start with the one that's going to be the most 182 00:10:24,560 --> 00:10:26,600 controversial, which is North Carolina. 183 00:10:26,800 --> 00:10:29,520 I am not advocating for North Carolina to get in. 184 00:10:29,520 --> 00:10:33,000 And as Caleb points out, let me see if I can call up his comment 185 00:10:33,000 --> 00:10:36,600 here. Bracket matrix right now has 26 186 00:10:36,600 --> 00:10:39,840 brackets out of 102 with UNC in the field. 187 00:10:40,680 --> 00:10:44,000 We got another comment here. Texas and UNC are non starters. 188 00:10:44,600 --> 00:10:47,800 Texas pathetic conference record and UNC 1 and 12 and quad one. 189 00:10:47,800 --> 00:10:49,800 All right, so I'm going to tackle both of those 'cause I 190 00:10:49,800 --> 00:10:53,080 think that they're they're both valid arguments. 191 00:10:53,440 --> 00:10:59,280 But this is where you can't just look at one or two pieces of 192 00:10:59,280 --> 00:11:02,360 evidence. You also have to unfortunately, 193 00:11:02,360 --> 00:11:04,800 I think consider some of the political ramifications. 194 00:11:04,800 --> 00:11:08,960 And this is where when you just in my history, in my historical 195 00:11:08,960 --> 00:11:11,680 opinion, when you look at the way that the brackets have been 196 00:11:11,680 --> 00:11:14,120 laid out in the. Past you do see a bit of an 197 00:11:14,120 --> 00:11:16,800 outsized influence whenever you've got an athletic director 198 00:11:16,800 --> 00:11:19,080 on the committee. So North Carolina is a bit of a 199 00:11:19,080 --> 00:11:22,480 tough case because as has been pointed out there one in 12 in 200 00:11:22,480 --> 00:11:28,880 quad ones and you got UCLA, while still a quad one win out 201 00:11:28,880 --> 00:11:32,560 of the top 25 in the NET. You the wins that North 202 00:11:32,560 --> 00:11:34,360 Carolina's got are not impressive. 203 00:11:34,360 --> 00:11:37,200 North Carolina has one win against the the perspective 204 00:11:37,200 --> 00:11:41,960 field and that's against UCLA. They have a couple of wins 205 00:11:43,040 --> 00:11:47,360 against teams that are right on the fringes, Dayton, Wake 206 00:11:47,360 --> 00:11:50,920 Forest, SMU. They have, they have the one 207 00:11:51,400 --> 00:11:53,600 kind of bad loss by one point to Stanford. 208 00:11:53,600 --> 00:11:55,440 I don't think they're going to get punished too much for that. 209 00:11:55,680 --> 00:11:58,760 Where I think North Carolina's argument largely lies is that 210 00:11:58,760 --> 00:12:00,240 they have ten wins away from home. 211 00:12:01,440 --> 00:12:05,160 They are their net is 36 and that is one of the primary 212 00:12:05,160 --> 00:12:09,960 sorting mechanisms. Their their predictives are very 213 00:12:09,960 --> 00:12:11,840 good. Their predictives Their BP is 214 00:12:11,840 --> 00:12:17,320 top 25, Kemp Poms 33. I realize I'm kind of out on an 215 00:12:17,320 --> 00:12:20,000 island with North Carolina and I hope I'm wrong. 216 00:12:20,000 --> 00:12:22,560 I don't think North Carolina deserves to be in the field. 217 00:12:22,560 --> 00:12:26,680 I really honestly do not. But I will be surprised if 218 00:12:26,680 --> 00:12:31,360 they're not in the field simply because I have seen with with an 219 00:12:31,360 --> 00:12:34,240 athletic director, especially as the committee chair, I've seen 220 00:12:34,240 --> 00:12:36,520 it happen before and I think the argument will be made well. 221 00:12:36,520 --> 00:12:39,800 North Carolina was one of the best teams in a power 222 00:12:39,800 --> 00:12:42,400 conference. They won 22 games on the season. 223 00:12:43,280 --> 00:12:47,600 And they are a Top 40 team in the NET, and they are, in some 224 00:12:47,600 --> 00:12:52,400 cases 10 to 15 spots ahead of other teams in the NET, which is 225 00:12:52,400 --> 00:12:55,400 supposed to be the metric that the NCAA is using to figure out 226 00:12:55,800 --> 00:12:58,280 who the teams that are most deserving to get into the field 227 00:12:58,280 --> 00:13:01,440 are. So when Chad says in the chat 228 00:13:03,680 --> 00:13:06,960 UNC and over IU as akin to your pot about Painter as a coaching 229 00:13:06,960 --> 00:13:08,920 hire option, are you feeling OK recently? 230 00:13:08,920 --> 00:13:12,000 Yes, I'm feeling fine. I'm just saying this is this is 231 00:13:12,000 --> 00:13:13,920 where. As I've looked at this. 232 00:13:14,280 --> 00:13:17,080 It's hard for me to shake the ghosts of some previous 233 00:13:17,080 --> 00:13:21,520 selections past where a team like this has gotten it, Noah 234 00:13:21,520 --> 00:13:23,400 says. Wasn't UNC left out two years 235 00:13:23,400 --> 00:13:24,440 ago when they were on the bubble? 236 00:13:24,440 --> 00:13:27,840 Sure they were. I think this is a different 237 00:13:27,840 --> 00:13:32,240 scenario, all things considered, largely because that year there 238 00:13:32,240 --> 00:13:36,040 were teams that had clearly better resumes. 239 00:13:36,360 --> 00:13:39,680 And I think the problem with North Carolina, with Texas, with 240 00:13:39,680 --> 00:13:44,840 Indiana, is that most of them have bad overall resumes. 241 00:13:44,840 --> 00:13:47,840 There's not a lot there to clearly say this team is in the 242 00:13:47,840 --> 00:13:50,960 field. So I look at North Carolina and 243 00:13:50,960 --> 00:13:53,200 and even though, as Caleb points out, Gavitt said, the 244 00:13:53,200 --> 00:13:55,280 predictives aren't as important as who you beat. 245 00:13:56,200 --> 00:13:58,680 That's true. But they also are using the net 246 00:13:59,120 --> 00:14:02,400 to try to figure out exactly who's going to to be in the 247 00:14:02,400 --> 00:14:03,760 field. It doesn't mean that the net is 248 00:14:03,760 --> 00:14:06,040 the end all be all, but the predictives are baked into the 249 00:14:06,040 --> 00:14:09,200 net and you have a North Carolina team that played the 250 00:14:09,200 --> 00:14:11,680 5th toughest non conference strength of schedule played a 251 00:14:11,680 --> 00:14:15,120 lot of those teams tough. I just have, again, not arguing 252 00:14:15,120 --> 00:14:17,400 for North Carolina, but I can see the arguments in the 253 00:14:17,400 --> 00:14:21,600 conference room being, well, they've shown the potential of 254 00:14:21,600 --> 00:14:25,000 doing this and they've come really close on a bunch of 255 00:14:25,000 --> 00:14:27,080 occasions. And they also won 22 games. 256 00:14:27,960 --> 00:14:31,920 So again, I hope I'm wrong. I really don't want North 257 00:14:31,920 --> 00:14:35,120 Carolina in the field. I think it would illustrate a 258 00:14:35,120 --> 00:14:38,520 kind of a cynicism about the selection process that is 259 00:14:38,520 --> 00:14:40,800 deserved because we've seen it enough times. 260 00:14:40,960 --> 00:14:43,160 But hopefully we're sitting here and and listening to North 261 00:14:43,160 --> 00:14:48,320 Carolina complain about being in the NIT when the evening arrives 262 00:14:48,320 --> 00:14:50,360 here today. Let's go to the other team, 263 00:14:50,360 --> 00:14:52,600 which I also have in the field, which is Texas. 264 00:14:53,520 --> 00:14:58,600 So Texas is an an odd mix. And this is where, if you're 265 00:14:58,600 --> 00:15:01,360 going to argue that North Carolina's not in the field 266 00:15:02,000 --> 00:15:05,720 because of the lack of winds, I don't know what the argument 267 00:15:05,720 --> 00:15:08,960 would be for Texas not being or Texas not not being in the field 268 00:15:08,960 --> 00:15:12,560 under that same scenario, given the plethora of winds that they 269 00:15:12,560 --> 00:15:15,000 have. They are 19 and 15. 270 00:15:15,000 --> 00:15:19,640 They are 6 and 12 in, in, in terms of their record against 271 00:15:19,640 --> 00:15:22,440 the SEC. The SEC was also the best 272 00:15:22,440 --> 00:15:24,400 conference in the country this year. 273 00:15:24,800 --> 00:15:28,800 And it's not like Texas didn't pick up some impressive wins 274 00:15:28,960 --> 00:15:33,000 along the way in the SEC. And you look down the list, and 275 00:15:33,000 --> 00:15:35,600 this is where like, look at who Texas has beaten. 276 00:15:35,600 --> 00:15:39,360 They've beaten Kentucky, they've beaten Texas A&M on a neutral 277 00:15:39,360 --> 00:15:41,120 floor. They wanted Mississippi State. 278 00:15:41,200 --> 00:15:43,800 They beat Missouri, they beat Texas A&M again. 279 00:15:43,920 --> 00:15:46,840 They won out of Oklahoma, they won on a neutral court against 280 00:15:46,840 --> 00:15:49,840 Vanderbilt a little bit ago. That's seven wins against teams 281 00:15:49,840 --> 00:15:54,920 in the field right now. Their net is 39, which is better 282 00:15:54,920 --> 00:15:56,880 than a couple of the teams that we're about to look at. 283 00:15:57,280 --> 00:15:59,880 Their predictives are fine. They're they average out to be 284 00:15:59,880 --> 00:16:03,400 about a 42 and their overall strength of schedule was 16th. 285 00:16:03,680 --> 00:16:06,040 So this is where when the committee says over and over 286 00:16:06,040 --> 00:16:08,880 again, we don't look at conference records, Texas is 287 00:16:08,880 --> 00:16:12,240 kind of the the test case or maybe test case is the wrong 288 00:16:12,240 --> 00:16:13,960 word. But it's like the prototype case 289 00:16:14,160 --> 00:16:17,200 for why they don't overlook at conference records. 290 00:16:17,200 --> 00:16:20,640 Because you know, when you get right down to it, Texas played a 291 00:16:20,640 --> 00:16:23,960 really tough schedule. And you know, you go through and 292 00:16:23,960 --> 00:16:27,040 and look at overall, you know, set up with the schedule. 293 00:16:27,240 --> 00:16:31,400 You know, Texas had a lot of games that other teams in the 294 00:16:31,400 --> 00:16:33,080 SEC didn't necessarily have to deal with. 295 00:16:33,080 --> 00:16:35,240 They they had to go to Texas A&M. 296 00:16:35,240 --> 00:16:37,480 They had to go to Florida, they had to go to Vanderbilt. 297 00:16:38,640 --> 00:16:41,280 You know, they went to Mississippi State and one, they 298 00:16:41,280 --> 00:16:45,880 went to Oklahoma and one. So again, I look at all of this 299 00:16:45,880 --> 00:16:49,240 and I say to myself. When you look at Texas's overall 300 00:16:49,240 --> 00:16:52,360 marks, I'm I'm again, I don't know that they necessarily 301 00:16:52,360 --> 00:16:56,400 deserve to be in, but here we are. 302 00:16:57,080 --> 00:17:00,680 Now let's look at Indiana. Indiana's right next to Texas. 303 00:17:00,880 --> 00:17:03,920 And the problem for Indiana, I think at this point, and This is 304 00:17:03,920 --> 00:17:07,400 why ultimately I don't have them in, is that at this stage, 305 00:17:07,440 --> 00:17:10,000 Indiana's got two wins against teams in the field. 306 00:17:10,560 --> 00:17:14,920 And as we've heard on a lot of different podcasts talking about 307 00:17:14,920 --> 00:17:18,800 bracketology over the course of the last couple of of days, the 308 00:17:18,839 --> 00:17:22,160 only reason Indiana's even in the conversation is that one win 309 00:17:22,160 --> 00:17:26,160 that they had at Michigan State. Very good win, tremendous win. 310 00:17:26,480 --> 00:17:29,560 But if you look at Indiana overall, I don't see the 311 00:17:29,560 --> 00:17:34,440 impressiveness in the resume. They don't have the close but 312 00:17:34,440 --> 00:17:39,320 didn't quite get the job done numbers that North Carolina has. 313 00:17:39,320 --> 00:17:43,040 Indiana's net is 54 N Carolina's is 36. 314 00:17:43,400 --> 00:17:46,200 Indiana's only won five games away from home. 315 00:17:46,480 --> 00:17:48,160 North Carolina's won double that. 316 00:17:49,200 --> 00:17:52,640 You know, Indiana's got the same number of quad one and two wins 317 00:17:52,640 --> 00:17:55,440 that North Carolina has. And I think part of the problem 318 00:17:55,760 --> 00:17:59,880 is that Indiana would not even be sweating this right now if 319 00:17:59,880 --> 00:18:03,720 Ohio State hadn't tripped over themselves on the way to the 320 00:18:03,720 --> 00:18:05,920 finish line. Because you figure like 2 of 321 00:18:05,920 --> 00:18:09,840 Indiana's 5 best wins are against an Ohio State team 322 00:18:09,840 --> 00:18:11,400 that's not going to be in the field. 323 00:18:11,960 --> 00:18:16,240 And you know, you look at Penn State, Penn State, the two wins 324 00:18:16,240 --> 00:18:18,640 against Penn State, Penn State's not going to be anywhere close 325 00:18:18,640 --> 00:18:21,360 to the field either. Penn State didn't even make the 326 00:18:21,360 --> 00:18:25,680 Big 10 tournament. So I look at all of that and 327 00:18:25,840 --> 00:18:31,680 even though Indiana doesn't have any sub quad won losses, to me, 328 00:18:31,680 --> 00:18:33,920 you look at this Indiana team and you say, well, they have 3 329 00:18:33,920 --> 00:18:38,840 fewer wins than North Carolina and they have a net that's 18 330 00:18:38,840 --> 00:18:43,000 spots worse than North Carolina. And they won half the games away 331 00:18:43,000 --> 00:18:46,160 from home and they only have one more win against the tournament 332 00:18:46,160 --> 00:18:49,840 team the North Carolina has. This is where I look at this and 333 00:18:49,840 --> 00:18:53,000 I say, if it's down to Indiana and North Carolina for the final 334 00:18:53,000 --> 00:18:55,520 spot, I think the committee's going to choose North Carolina. 335 00:18:55,520 --> 00:18:58,240 I don't think they should. But I think the argument that 336 00:18:58,240 --> 00:19:02,200 Indiana has about the quad one wins kind of resonates in an 337 00:19:02,200 --> 00:19:05,440 empty fashion when you look at the fact that right now only two 338 00:19:05,440 --> 00:19:07,280 of the teams they've beaten are going to be in the field. 339 00:19:07,520 --> 00:19:11,040 So again, hope I'm wrong. And I think we're most 340 00:19:11,040 --> 00:19:14,360 bracketologists are looking at this is they're saying, well, at 341 00:19:14,360 --> 00:19:18,320 least Indiana has four quad one wins and at least Indiana 342 00:19:18,320 --> 00:19:23,080 doesn't have any bad losses. But ultimately as I look through 343 00:19:23,080 --> 00:19:26,240 this, when I think about how the committee might be evaluating 344 00:19:26,240 --> 00:19:29,920 this, I don't think, I don't think that you can emphasize 345 00:19:29,920 --> 00:19:33,040 quality wins and net both at the same time. 346 00:19:33,640 --> 00:19:37,640 And in the balance between the two, would you rather select a 347 00:19:37,640 --> 00:19:43,240 team that is going to demonstrate through predictives 348 00:19:43,240 --> 00:19:45,720 and through the net that it can play with the best teams in the 349 00:19:45,720 --> 00:19:49,600 country versus an Indiana team that doesn't have those those 350 00:19:49,600 --> 00:19:52,520 quantitative measures and that's reflected in their net ranking 351 00:19:52,680 --> 00:19:55,360 and really only has one more win of quality over what North 352 00:19:55,360 --> 00:19:58,000 Carolina has? Patrick says counter argument. 353 00:19:58,000 --> 00:20:00,920 The fact that UN CS guy in the chair, will there be a push 354 00:20:00,920 --> 00:20:05,400 against him showing favoritism? This is always where you would 355 00:20:05,400 --> 00:20:06,880 think that that would be the case. 356 00:20:07,680 --> 00:20:11,000 But what we've seen over time is that, you know, there's always 357 00:20:11,000 --> 00:20:14,280 this this, you know that the NCAA and I believe that they do 358 00:20:14,280 --> 00:20:17,280 this, but they'll say, well, anytime somebody's in a vote 359 00:20:17,560 --> 00:20:20,600 that's talking about their team or team that they're connected 360 00:20:20,600 --> 00:20:23,680 with, whether it's an athletic director or whether it's a 361 00:20:24,040 --> 00:20:25,880 conference commissioner, they have to leave the room. 362 00:20:25,880 --> 00:20:29,120 I'm sure that happens. But again, I've been doing this 363 00:20:29,120 --> 00:20:31,880 for a long time. I've seen it over and over again 364 00:20:32,080 --> 00:20:35,600 where it almost feels like the rest of the committee gives that 365 00:20:35,600 --> 00:20:41,240 person's team extra deference. It's it's a wild set of things 366 00:20:41,240 --> 00:20:43,280 that happens over time and they kind of get buried in the 367 00:20:43,280 --> 00:20:44,440 shuffle. And then the committee chair 368 00:20:44,440 --> 00:20:47,040 always comes out and says, I wasn't in the room or, you know, 369 00:20:47,040 --> 00:20:48,440 says that person wasn't in the room. 370 00:20:48,640 --> 00:20:52,120 The committee looked at it and really decided as a group that 371 00:20:52,280 --> 00:20:54,640 these metrics were a bit better than those metrics. 372 00:20:54,640 --> 00:20:56,920 And that's why that team got in. A lot of time they never even 373 00:20:56,920 --> 00:21:00,440 get asked about it because most of the time when they're being 374 00:21:00,440 --> 00:21:05,280 questioned by CBS or whomever, they're not being interrogated 375 00:21:05,280 --> 00:21:07,840 in terms of the numbers necessarily, and they'll always 376 00:21:07,840 --> 00:21:09,880 give vague answers on these things. 377 00:21:09,880 --> 00:21:13,400 So I've actually found the opposite happens, Patrick, where 378 00:21:13,400 --> 00:21:15,880 they tend to give extra deference to the person's team 379 00:21:15,880 --> 00:21:19,040 that's on the committee. And just because the 380 00:21:19,040 --> 00:21:21,560 bracketologists have circled around this and said, well, 381 00:21:21,560 --> 00:21:24,640 North Carolina doesn't have an argument to be in, we've seen 382 00:21:24,640 --> 00:21:27,600 multiple instances historically where the opposite has been 383 00:21:27,600 --> 00:21:31,240 decided upon by the committee. So again, would be happily wrong 384 00:21:31,240 --> 00:21:34,520 on this. When you look at Indiana, you 385 00:21:34,520 --> 00:21:37,640 also have to look at Xavier, which is our fourth team in the 386 00:21:37,640 --> 00:21:40,840 mix. Xavier is kind of like a 387 00:21:40,840 --> 00:21:43,000 supercharged North Carolina in a way. 388 00:21:43,000 --> 00:21:47,080 And to be honest with you, I think if the committee's not 389 00:21:47,080 --> 00:21:50,240 going to put North Carolina in, they may end up putting Xavier 390 00:21:50,240 --> 00:21:53,320 in instead of North Carolina as opposed to putting Indiana in 391 00:21:53,320 --> 00:21:56,800 instead of North Carolina. So you look at Xavier, 21 wins, 392 00:21:56,800 --> 00:21:59,480 which is better than Indiana and almost as good as North 393 00:21:59,480 --> 00:22:03,800 Carolina. Their Nets not as good, the 45th 394 00:22:03,800 --> 00:22:05,640 in the net, North Carolina's 36th. 395 00:22:05,920 --> 00:22:07,800 Their predictives average around 40. 396 00:22:08,080 --> 00:22:11,000 Their KPI, which is one of the resume numbers is pretty bad. 397 00:22:11,520 --> 00:22:13,840 But again, you know, going through and looking at it, they 398 00:22:13,840 --> 00:22:16,680 remind me a little bit of of a hybrid of Texas and North 399 00:22:16,680 --> 00:22:18,680 Carolina. They have a win against 400 00:22:18,680 --> 00:22:22,800 Marquette, who's not only solidly in the field, they have 401 00:22:22,800 --> 00:22:24,320 a win against UConn. They have a win against 402 00:22:24,320 --> 00:22:26,200 Creighton. So they have three wins against 403 00:22:26,200 --> 00:22:28,440 teams that are going to be in the field as opposed to 404 00:22:28,440 --> 00:22:30,640 Indiana's two and North Carolina's one. 405 00:22:31,080 --> 00:22:32,840 They have a strength of schedule of 60. 406 00:22:32,880 --> 00:22:35,400 They have six wins in rodent neutral sites. 407 00:22:35,400 --> 00:22:37,680 That's kind of a Ding against them, but it's still better than 408 00:22:37,680 --> 00:22:40,920 Indiana by one. And then they the really only 409 00:22:40,920 --> 00:22:44,280 thing dragging them down is they have the two Rd. losses in Tier 410 00:22:44,280 --> 00:22:47,360 2. So I went back and forth about, 411 00:22:47,640 --> 00:22:51,200 you know, Xavier, North Carolina, Xavier, Texas, Xavier, 412 00:22:51,200 --> 00:22:53,640 Indiana, all of these teams in a mix. 413 00:22:53,960 --> 00:22:57,960 I have Xavier as the first team out in my field right now. 414 00:22:59,720 --> 00:23:03,880 Let's go to Boise State. And and this is where, you know, 415 00:23:03,880 --> 00:23:06,720 I said on Twitter the other day that there really isn't an 416 00:23:06,720 --> 00:23:08,640 argument for Boise State over Indiana. 417 00:23:09,560 --> 00:23:12,400 So there there are a couple of small arguments and I will I 418 00:23:12,400 --> 00:23:16,160 will make them here for the sake of discussing the argumentation. 419 00:23:17,360 --> 00:23:21,280 Boise's got wins against Saint Mary's on a neutral court, 420 00:23:21,280 --> 00:23:26,280 Clemson, New Mexico, Utah State, New Mexico again and San Diego 421 00:23:26,280 --> 00:23:27,720 State. That's six teams that are going 422 00:23:27,720 --> 00:23:31,280 to be in the field. Their net is 44, which is again, 423 00:23:31,280 --> 00:23:33,960 not as good as North Carolina, about the same as Xavier and 424 00:23:33,960 --> 00:23:36,440 better than Indiana, also worse than Texas. 425 00:23:36,680 --> 00:23:38,800 Strength to schedule 79, which is fine. 426 00:23:39,160 --> 00:23:41,680 Their resume and their predictives are both around 50. 427 00:23:41,960 --> 00:23:44,520 What really drags Boise State down and where I think they 428 00:23:44,520 --> 00:23:47,600 don't have an argument is they have a tier three loss and a 429 00:23:47,600 --> 00:23:50,080 Tier 4 loss. And I don't know how you can 430 00:23:50,080 --> 00:23:55,360 reconcile those with the fact that essentially, you know, if 431 00:23:55,360 --> 00:23:59,640 you look at their wins in conference, most of the wins 432 00:23:59,640 --> 00:24:04,320 that they're they're putting forward are wins against teams 433 00:24:04,320 --> 00:24:06,120 that are right on the bubble in the Mountain West. 434 00:24:06,120 --> 00:24:08,160 Like all those Mountain West teams are clustered between 435 00:24:08,160 --> 00:24:11,320 essentially like a nine seed and the play in games. 436 00:24:11,720 --> 00:24:15,000 So they're in the field, yes, but these are not as impressive 437 00:24:15,000 --> 00:24:16,120 as some of the other ones you see. 438 00:24:16,120 --> 00:24:18,960 And I think they get cancelled out by the bad losses that Boise 439 00:24:18,960 --> 00:24:21,920 State is a crew. They do have eleven wins away 440 00:24:21,920 --> 00:24:24,040 from home, which I think is laudable. 441 00:24:24,520 --> 00:24:27,560 And you know, if the committee were to look at this and say, 442 00:24:28,280 --> 00:24:32,600 well, we want to reward you because you won 23 games against 443 00:24:32,600 --> 00:24:36,960 Division One opponents and you didn't lose 15 games like Texas, 444 00:24:37,040 --> 00:24:39,440 I could see an argument being made there potentially. 445 00:24:39,440 --> 00:24:42,480 But I think ultimately they will get left out of the shuffle. 446 00:24:44,240 --> 00:24:47,280 So that's the five teams that I've got in the mix for those 447 00:24:47,280 --> 00:24:50,400 last three spots. Would I be shocked to see 448 00:24:50,600 --> 00:24:53,400 Indiana and Xavier instead of Texas and North Carolina? 449 00:24:53,440 --> 00:24:56,400 No, not at all. Would I be shocked to see Boise 450 00:24:56,400 --> 00:24:59,840 State and Indiana in in place of like a North Carolina and a 451 00:24:59,840 --> 00:25:01,800 Texas? I'd be a little surprised if 452 00:25:01,800 --> 00:25:04,160 Boise State was in that mix, but I wouldn't be shocked. 453 00:25:04,720 --> 00:25:08,080 I don't think there's another team right now that's really in 454 00:25:08,080 --> 00:25:11,440 competition for those final two spots. 455 00:25:12,320 --> 00:25:16,880 I just have a sense looking at what all we're, you know, what 456 00:25:16,880 --> 00:25:19,120 all we're seeing in the mix here from a data perspective. 457 00:25:19,120 --> 00:25:22,680 I just, I just had this sneaking suspicion they're going to opt 458 00:25:22,680 --> 00:25:28,120 for Texas and they're not going to allow, you know, the season 459 00:25:28,120 --> 00:25:32,160 to end with so few ACC teams in the NCAA tournament. 460 00:25:32,160 --> 00:25:36,200 That's again, hope I'm wrong, hope that North Carolina is in 461 00:25:36,200 --> 00:25:39,080 the NIT where they belong. But that's the rationale that 462 00:25:39,080 --> 00:25:41,560 I've got for why we're doing things the way we're doing 463 00:25:41,560 --> 00:25:45,440 things. So let me look, let's go over 464 00:25:45,440 --> 00:25:47,840 and look at the seed list and kind of see where we landed with 465 00:25:47,840 --> 00:25:51,040 everything on that front. And I'm going to zoom in a 466 00:25:51,040 --> 00:25:52,680 little bit more here so we can see. 467 00:25:53,400 --> 00:25:57,160 So right now, I've actually bumped Houston up to the number 468 00:25:57,160 --> 00:25:59,560 one overall seed. And there were reports yesterday 469 00:25:59,560 --> 00:26:03,120 that they've actually requested the West region, which is an 470 00:26:03,120 --> 00:26:05,840 interesting one. I can see why they would do 471 00:26:05,840 --> 00:26:07,240 that. I think if I was Houston, I'd 472 00:26:07,240 --> 00:26:10,480 rather play in San Francisco than play in Indianapolis simply 473 00:26:10,480 --> 00:26:15,400 because there's a lot better chance of running into a team 474 00:26:15,400 --> 00:26:18,280 that's got a homecourt advantage in Indianapolis than there is in 475 00:26:18,280 --> 00:26:20,880 San Francisco. I've got Auburn as the two 476 00:26:20,880 --> 00:26:24,040 overall, I've got Duke as the three overall, and then I think 477 00:26:24,040 --> 00:26:26,640 Florida has definitely demonstrated that they're a one 478 00:26:26,640 --> 00:26:29,480 seed, so I've got them as the 4th overall. 479 00:26:29,960 --> 00:26:31,840 Tennessee, Alabama, Michigan State, St. 480 00:26:31,840 --> 00:26:33,400 John's. I think the two lines pretty 481 00:26:33,400 --> 00:26:36,720 straightforward and then my three line is Texas Tech, Iowa 482 00:26:36,720 --> 00:26:39,480 State, Kentucky, Maryland and then the to round out the 483 00:26:39,480 --> 00:26:43,640 protected seeds, Wisconsin, Clemson, Arizona and Michigan. 484 00:26:43,800 --> 00:26:45,520 That's a, that's a really tough one. 485 00:26:45,520 --> 00:26:47,640 I could see Michigan being as high as a four. 486 00:26:47,640 --> 00:26:49,560 I could see them being as low as a six. 487 00:26:50,080 --> 00:26:52,840 That's one of those teams that's it's really hard to predict 488 00:26:52,840 --> 00:26:55,960 where they're going to land in the mix because, again, they are 489 00:26:55,960 --> 00:26:59,560 one of those teams that has a resume that's big on wins, but 490 00:26:59,560 --> 00:27:01,480 their predictives aren't particularly good. 491 00:27:01,880 --> 00:27:03,880 And so I could see the predictives dragging their 492 00:27:03,880 --> 00:27:06,840 seating down into the five range or maybe even the six range. 493 00:27:06,840 --> 00:27:09,520 But then on the flip side, you've got a team that, you 494 00:27:09,520 --> 00:27:14,480 know, was, you know, right near the top of the Big 10 and is in 495 00:27:14,480 --> 00:27:17,720 the Big 10 title game today. So nothing would surprise me on 496 00:27:17,720 --> 00:27:20,440 that front. If you go down the list, you've 497 00:27:20,440 --> 00:27:23,280 got Vanderbilt, San Diego State, Texas and North Carolina 498 00:27:23,280 --> 00:27:25,680 basically straddling the 1112 line. 499 00:27:26,200 --> 00:27:30,080 I've got VCU right now ahead of West Virginia. 500 00:27:30,080 --> 00:27:32,600 West Virginia is my last buy team. 501 00:27:33,120 --> 00:27:35,880 And then you got Oklahoma, Arkansas, Utah State, New 502 00:27:35,880 --> 00:27:40,040 Mexico, Georgia, Baylor, UConn. That's that next grouping of at 503 00:27:40,040 --> 00:27:44,160 large teams going up. I think UC San Diego it was, it 504 00:27:44,160 --> 00:27:46,200 was wise of them to win last night. 505 00:27:46,200 --> 00:27:48,880 I think it would have been tight for them to get into the field 506 00:27:48,880 --> 00:27:50,320 if they hadn't gotten the auto bid. 507 00:27:50,320 --> 00:27:53,880 But they picked that up last night against UC Irvine. 508 00:27:54,200 --> 00:27:58,160 I don't think UC Irvine gets in. I don't see the argument for 509 00:27:58,160 --> 00:28:00,600 that. Colorado State gets in with the 510 00:28:00,600 --> 00:28:03,440 auto bid for the Mountain West. They're twelve seed Drake's 12 511 00:28:03,440 --> 00:28:07,920 seed Liberty wins in Conference USA last night and then Mcnee's 512 00:28:07,920 --> 00:28:11,040 of course in the Southland. That rounds out the twelves When 513 00:28:11,040 --> 00:28:13,760 we look at bid Steelers is that there's really only two things 514 00:28:13,760 --> 00:28:17,160 to look at today. One of them is going to be the 515 00:28:17,160 --> 00:28:20,480 the final of the Atlantic 10. Always feels like they're in the 516 00:28:20,480 --> 00:28:22,560 mix. You've got George Mason and 517 00:28:22,560 --> 00:28:27,640 you've got VCU. You know VCU, when you look at 518 00:28:27,640 --> 00:28:31,000 them, they're they're to me a little bit of a supercharged 519 00:28:31,000 --> 00:28:33,920 North Carolina in that they've got 26 wins. 520 00:28:35,600 --> 00:28:37,920 They've got twelve wins away from home. 521 00:28:38,680 --> 00:28:41,160 Their strength of schedule though is 133. 522 00:28:41,400 --> 00:28:43,120 Their resume numbers are fairly good. 523 00:28:43,120 --> 00:28:45,440 Their predictives are great. Like their predictives all 524 00:28:45,560 --> 00:28:48,480 essentially equate to to them being a top thirty team. 525 00:28:48,800 --> 00:28:50,320 But they really don't have a lot of wins. 526 00:28:50,400 --> 00:28:52,840 Like they they beat Colorado State on a neutral floor. 527 00:28:52,880 --> 00:28:56,960 That's an auto bid team and then they've got nothing else of 528 00:28:56,960 --> 00:29:00,000 note. They also have a a quad four 529 00:29:00,000 --> 00:29:02,120 loss to Seton Hall. Now. 530 00:29:02,120 --> 00:29:04,760 I think the overall quality of their resume and their metrics 531 00:29:05,040 --> 00:29:09,000 puts them in a position where they could potentially make the 532 00:29:09,000 --> 00:29:12,280 tournament if they lose today. But I'm having a hard time 533 00:29:12,880 --> 00:29:19,840 reconciling the idea that if VCU loses to George Mason today that 534 00:29:19,840 --> 00:29:23,080 they would automatically get in. You know, we've talked about how 535 00:29:23,080 --> 00:29:25,920 the committee really does appreciate, as I think they 536 00:29:25,920 --> 00:29:28,640 should, teams that win a lot of games. 537 00:29:29,200 --> 00:29:32,920 And it's not like VCU strike. The schedule is awful, but 538 00:29:32,920 --> 00:29:35,920 again, I'm looking at VCU in North Carolina and I'm saying to 539 00:29:35,920 --> 00:29:39,560 myself, if you're going to argue that VCU should get in, North 540 00:29:39,560 --> 00:29:42,720 Carolina's essentially got a very similar resume with a few 541 00:29:42,720 --> 00:29:46,360 fewer victories and a much better strength of schedule. 542 00:29:47,800 --> 00:29:51,760 The other one that we need to keep an eye on is in the 543 00:29:51,760 --> 00:29:56,560 American Conference and it's Memphis versus UAB. 544 00:29:56,800 --> 00:29:59,960 So Memphis is going to get in and Memphis has a, a, a bevy of, 545 00:29:59,960 --> 00:30:02,800 I think pretty good wins. Their metrics are really bad. 546 00:30:02,800 --> 00:30:05,280 It's fascinating. Like their predictives are 547 00:30:05,280 --> 00:30:07,040 essentially very similar to Indiana's. 548 00:30:07,320 --> 00:30:10,000 But Memphis has the, the 4th toughest strength of schedule in 549 00:30:10,000 --> 00:30:12,240 the country. They beat Michigan State, they 550 00:30:12,240 --> 00:30:14,680 won at Clemson, they beat Mizzou, they beat Ole Miss, they 551 00:30:14,680 --> 00:30:17,360 beat UConn. You know, they've, they've, 552 00:30:17,360 --> 00:30:19,480 they've done what they need to do on that front. 553 00:30:19,720 --> 00:30:23,600 And you know, they have a couple of questionable losses in Tier 554 00:30:23,600 --> 00:30:25,680 3, but they've more than made-up for that. 555 00:30:26,240 --> 00:30:30,440 UAB obviously is not going to get in without winning the auto 556 00:30:30,440 --> 00:30:32,960 bid as they don't really have a lot on their on their resume. 557 00:30:32,960 --> 00:30:36,440 They've got 2 quad 4 losses. So you know, that's the 558 00:30:36,440 --> 00:30:40,960 nightmare scenario would be UAB coming out and defeating Memphis 559 00:30:41,240 --> 00:30:45,040 because that would, I think unless Indiana is 2 teams into 560 00:30:45,040 --> 00:30:48,280 the field, I think that at that point that would kill them off 561 00:30:48,480 --> 00:30:50,960 in terms of their overall placement within things. 562 00:30:50,960 --> 00:30:53,840 So that's all you really have to worry about today. 563 00:30:53,840 --> 00:30:56,160 The rest of the games that are going on aren't really going to 564 00:30:56,160 --> 00:31:00,240 affect a whole lot. You know, by the time Tennessee, 565 00:31:00,240 --> 00:31:04,680 Florida starts and Wisconsin and Michigan starts, you know, 566 00:31:04,880 --> 00:31:07,680 Tennessee, Florida's at 1:00 today, Wisconsin, Michigan's at 567 00:31:07,680 --> 00:31:11,080 3:30, by the time those games get going, the committee will 568 00:31:11,080 --> 00:31:14,240 have already made decisions about that level of the bracket. 569 00:31:14,240 --> 00:31:18,320 In fact, you know, as as much as we're talking right now about 570 00:31:18,320 --> 00:31:22,480 things, realistically speaking in, you know, as of this 571 00:31:22,480 --> 00:31:26,480 morning, the committee has already selected the field in 572 00:31:26,480 --> 00:31:27,960 terms of what teams are going to be in. 573 00:31:28,280 --> 00:31:31,720 They've probably already seated and scrubbed the first 3 or 4 574 00:31:31,720 --> 00:31:34,920 lines. So today is not really a day 575 00:31:34,920 --> 00:31:38,080 that's going to decide a whole lot in terms of seeding or 576 00:31:38,080 --> 00:31:40,800 getting into the field. The one exception being they 577 00:31:40,800 --> 00:31:44,040 will have created some contingency brackets in case 578 00:31:44,080 --> 00:31:47,960 Memphis loses in the American Championship game. 579 00:31:48,280 --> 00:31:51,880 And then depending on how they feel about BCU, they probably 580 00:31:51,880 --> 00:31:54,400 created a contingency bracket for that as well. 581 00:31:54,680 --> 00:31:56,920 And you know, that's where it gets a little bit complicated if 582 00:31:56,920 --> 00:31:59,000 you're the committee, because that UAB Memphis game doesn't 583 00:31:59,000 --> 00:32:02,720 start until 3:00. And so they'll, they will almost 584 00:32:02,720 --> 00:32:05,720 certainly the way that their procedures work, they will end 585 00:32:05,720 --> 00:32:09,280 up with a bracket or two brackets probably by that point, 586 00:32:09,280 --> 00:32:11,800 they'll, they'll get George Mason, VCU out of the way. 587 00:32:11,800 --> 00:32:13,720 They'll, they'll know what's going on with that by about 588 00:32:13,720 --> 00:32:15,960 3:00. But then they'll have two 589 00:32:15,960 --> 00:32:18,960 parallel brackets going and they will probably have to create 590 00:32:18,960 --> 00:32:22,120 both of those. And then depending on what 591 00:32:22,120 --> 00:32:27,640 happens in that Memphis game, whichever 1 is accurate to those 592 00:32:27,640 --> 00:32:32,560 results will be the one that they put forward to CBS and and 593 00:32:32,560 --> 00:32:36,160 show us when we get down to the actual show at what what 6:00 594 00:32:36,160 --> 00:32:39,440 today looking at how all of this happens within the placement 595 00:32:39,440 --> 00:32:42,040 structure. So I think some of you have seen 596 00:32:42,040 --> 00:32:48,120 this board before. The way that all this works is 597 00:32:48,680 --> 00:32:50,800 your number one overall seed is Houston. 598 00:32:50,800 --> 00:32:54,000 They selected the West region. They would go to Wichita for 599 00:32:54,000 --> 00:32:58,520 their first round game. Auburn, S Region will be in 600 00:32:58,520 --> 00:33:01,880 Lexington, and then Duke in the East and I got Florida going to 601 00:33:01,880 --> 00:33:04,360 the Midwest. If indeed Houston goes to the 602 00:33:04,360 --> 00:33:08,960 West, that then requires us to separate the SEC teams from each 603 00:33:08,960 --> 00:33:11,480 other. So normally Tennessee through an 604 00:33:11,480 --> 00:33:15,120 S curve approach would go to the Midwest, but they can't because 605 00:33:15,120 --> 00:33:16,840 you got to keep Florida and Tennessee separate. 606 00:33:16,840 --> 00:33:21,560 So Tennessee goes to the East and then Alabama would normally 607 00:33:21,560 --> 00:33:23,280 there go to the Midwest. They can't do that. 608 00:33:23,280 --> 00:33:25,240 They can't go to the South, so they have to go to the West 609 00:33:25,240 --> 00:33:27,680 opposite Houston. And then that slots Michigan 610 00:33:27,680 --> 00:33:30,120 State into the Indianapolis region, which is beneficial for 611 00:33:30,120 --> 00:33:32,600 them. And then Saint John's goes South 612 00:33:32,840 --> 00:33:35,960 and ends up being paired across from Auburn. 613 00:33:36,760 --> 00:33:39,200 And then you go continue down the S curve. 614 00:33:39,200 --> 00:33:42,040 Texas Tech ends up in the east, You've got Iowa State in the 615 00:33:42,040 --> 00:33:45,000 South, you've got Kentucky in the Midwest, and Maryland has to 616 00:33:45,000 --> 00:33:48,360 get shipped out West. And then Wisconsin in the South 617 00:33:48,360 --> 00:33:51,840 is the four seed. You've got Clemson in the West 618 00:33:51,840 --> 00:33:53,400 again to keep them away from Duke. 619 00:33:53,920 --> 00:33:57,320 Arizona goes to the Midwest and Wisconsin goes to the South. 620 00:33:57,760 --> 00:34:01,400 So that's how I've got it. Looking at this stage. 621 00:34:01,400 --> 00:34:07,120 The two play in games, 11 seed games at this point and you from 622 00:34:07,120 --> 00:34:09,679 there you kind of have to account for a bunch of different 623 00:34:09,679 --> 00:34:12,440 things. You have to account for you. 624 00:34:12,440 --> 00:34:15,880 You don't want to have conference rematches prior to 625 00:34:15,880 --> 00:34:20,080 rounds two or three really prior to the Elite 8 if you can avoid 626 00:34:20,080 --> 00:34:22,520 it, unless the teams have only played once. 627 00:34:23,040 --> 00:34:25,639 You want to avoid regular season rematches, which gets really 628 00:34:25,639 --> 00:34:28,679 hard with some of these teams this year because a lot of them 629 00:34:28,679 --> 00:34:31,320 played each other like it. It feels like Gonzaga played 630 00:34:31,320 --> 00:34:35,120 everybody and Memphis played everybody so it was 8 nines. 631 00:34:35,120 --> 00:34:37,440 That makes it very difficult to like find good spots for them to 632 00:34:37,440 --> 00:34:39,880 go. You also have to account for BYU 633 00:34:40,040 --> 00:34:43,480 who has to go into both a sub regional that plays Thursday, 634 00:34:43,480 --> 00:34:46,880 Saturday and a regional that plays Thursday, Saturday, which 635 00:34:46,880 --> 00:34:51,639 means they have to go either east or West cause Newark and 636 00:34:51,639 --> 00:34:55,080 San Francisco are the only two regions that play Thursday, 637 00:34:55,080 --> 00:34:56,600 Saturday. And then they have to be in one 638 00:34:56,600 --> 00:34:59,520 of those Thursday, Saturday, 1st and second round sites, which is 639 00:34:59,920 --> 00:35:03,200 that's Denver, Lexington, Providence or Wichita. 640 00:35:03,760 --> 00:35:05,880 So all these things have to be factored in and that's why the 641 00:35:05,880 --> 00:35:07,800 committee's gonna have to do a lot of work ahead of time 642 00:35:08,240 --> 00:35:12,840 because it's not just about sliding in UAB, moving Memphis 643 00:35:12,840 --> 00:35:15,000 down a spot and then going from there. 644 00:35:15,440 --> 00:35:18,400 It's also about, well, if you put UAB in, it upsets a lot of 645 00:35:18,400 --> 00:35:21,080 the the math in terms of who's played each other and where 646 00:35:21,080 --> 00:35:25,440 everybody lands. So as I look back, I wanted to 647 00:35:25,440 --> 00:35:27,480 make sure I want, I had everybody's questions that they 648 00:35:27,480 --> 00:35:30,080 asked. We had a lot of talk from people 649 00:35:30,080 --> 00:35:31,960 about the coaching search. We're not going to talk coaching 650 00:35:31,960 --> 00:35:35,200 search right now. We will talk about it tomorrow 651 00:35:35,200 --> 00:35:40,840 or tonight, but not right now. Let's see. 652 00:35:41,760 --> 00:35:44,720 I wanted to go and check X and see if we had any questions 653 00:35:44,720 --> 00:35:48,280 there. Looks like no we well we had a 654 00:35:48,280 --> 00:35:51,400 couple of questions here. So yeah, the Pumpkin Spice 655 00:35:51,400 --> 00:35:54,680 reserve asked are we out of Memphis or VCU lose. 656 00:35:55,680 --> 00:35:58,560 So I would say yes, but I've already got us out right now 657 00:35:58,560 --> 00:36:01,720 barely. Again, I could see right now I 658 00:36:01,720 --> 00:36:04,880 would going back to my board here, I would still have Xavier 659 00:36:04,880 --> 00:36:07,680 in ahead of Indiana. If you were going to take North 660 00:36:07,680 --> 00:36:09,880 Carolina out. I'm going to think about that a 661 00:36:09,880 --> 00:36:12,080 lot more. I still think the North Carolina 662 00:36:12,080 --> 00:36:14,400 is going to get in, but I might change my mind before my final 663 00:36:14,400 --> 00:36:16,960 bracket. Noah asked his IU in. 664 00:36:16,960 --> 00:36:18,720 I again, you got my answer with that. 665 00:36:19,080 --> 00:36:23,200 And Brody Brooks said my last four are UNC, Texas, Xavier and 666 00:36:23,200 --> 00:36:26,240 IU as long as VCU and Memphis win. 667 00:36:26,680 --> 00:36:29,040 And my only question there is, well, are you leaving out 668 00:36:29,040 --> 00:36:32,080 Mountain West teams? Are you leaving out Vanderbilt? 669 00:36:32,080 --> 00:36:35,000 Like, I don't know how those could be your last four in 670 00:36:35,360 --> 00:36:38,160 unless, unless there's something that I'm missing in terms of 671 00:36:38,160 --> 00:36:40,120 teams that you don't think you're going to be in elsewhere. 672 00:36:41,360 --> 00:36:43,680 So anyway, there's a lot of question marks today and it's 673 00:36:43,680 --> 00:36:46,240 really fascinating. I'm going to stop sharing here. 674 00:36:48,080 --> 00:36:51,320 You know, Ross noted that fan Duolod Swan and I use favor 675 00:36:51,320 --> 00:36:56,240 overnight, which is true. Now, one of two reasons why that 676 00:36:56,240 --> 00:36:59,360 might be the case. Either A, there's a leak in the 677 00:36:59,360 --> 00:37:03,720 committee to the gambling markets that seems unlikely, not 678 00:37:03,720 --> 00:37:08,640 impossible, but unlikely, or Vegas is looking at the 679 00:37:08,680 --> 00:37:10,640 probabilities from the bracketologist. 680 00:37:10,640 --> 00:37:13,320 And as someone pointed out earlier, a lot of brackets have 681 00:37:13,320 --> 00:37:17,120 decided I use going to be in. And in fact, you know, these are 682 00:37:17,120 --> 00:37:18,960 these are not just fringe brackets. 683 00:37:19,240 --> 00:37:21,400 You know, a lot of people who get the brackets right every 684 00:37:21,400 --> 00:37:24,880 year do have Indiana in. So as an Indiana fan, if you're 685 00:37:24,880 --> 00:37:28,920 sitting here thinking, you know, what's what's my route to hope 686 00:37:29,520 --> 00:37:32,760 and you're watching this and you're like, well crap, Crimson 687 00:37:32,760 --> 00:37:34,800 cast doesn't have IU in right now. 688 00:37:35,320 --> 00:37:37,160 I will freely admit I could be wrong. 689 00:37:37,280 --> 00:37:39,440 The rest of the bracketologist that have said Indiana's going 690 00:37:39,440 --> 00:37:42,080 to be in could be right. As I look at it though, I'm just 691 00:37:42,080 --> 00:37:46,040 having a hard time reconciling it with the numbers because if 692 00:37:46,040 --> 00:37:48,880 you're going to take a case that one set of metrics or another is 693 00:37:48,880 --> 00:37:53,280 important, Indiana kind of fails in a head to head with several 694 00:37:53,280 --> 00:37:55,480 different teams on those. If you're taking it 695 00:37:55,480 --> 00:37:57,680 holistically, I think Indiana loses in a bunch of those 696 00:37:57,680 --> 00:38:01,440 matchups as well. So that's kind of the scene at 697 00:38:01,440 --> 00:38:04,400 this stage. And I think ultimately, you 698 00:38:04,400 --> 00:38:06,720 know, we, we'll need to keep an eye on the VCU game. 699 00:38:06,720 --> 00:38:10,200 I I don't know that that's necessarily going to to be a 700 00:38:10,200 --> 00:38:14,160 case where if VCU loses that they would necessarily even get 701 00:38:14,160 --> 00:38:15,800 in as an at. Large it's possible. 702 00:38:16,160 --> 00:38:18,920 The Big 1 is going to be UAB Memphis, so we're going to have 703 00:38:18,920 --> 00:38:23,440 to be hanging on at least until 5:00 to really get a sense of 704 00:38:23,480 --> 00:38:26,280 what to expect when the final reveal happens. 705 00:38:26,280 --> 00:38:30,360 So anyway, wanted to keep this one relatively short as there's 706 00:38:30,360 --> 00:38:32,200 still a lot of basketball to be played today. 707 00:38:32,800 --> 00:38:34,440 We're probably not going to hear a whole lot. 708 00:38:34,440 --> 00:38:40,800 There normally is something that pops on the CBS show for the the 709 00:38:40,800 --> 00:38:43,000 first game that they do, they'll have the committee chair back 710 00:38:43,000 --> 00:38:45,680 in. So I would be sure to watch that 711 00:38:45,680 --> 00:38:50,120 Atlantic 10 game and watch the halftime show 'cause they may 712 00:38:50,120 --> 00:38:52,160 have some updates. They normally will doubt. 713 00:38:52,160 --> 00:38:59,400 They won't tell you what's going on there with that and then, you 714 00:38:59,400 --> 00:39:01,840 know, but they'll allude to things and the illusions are the 715 00:39:01,840 --> 00:39:03,640 things that we need to be paying attention to. 716 00:39:04,800 --> 00:39:08,760 Jeff notes DraftKings had IU at plus 245, which for those who 717 00:39:08,760 --> 00:39:11,720 are not familiar with gambling parlance, means Indiana would 718 00:39:11,720 --> 00:39:15,960 not be favored to get in. Plus 245 would mean you're kind 719 00:39:15,960 --> 00:39:17,880 of a 2 to one chance that you're not getting in. 720 00:39:18,680 --> 00:39:22,600 That got quickly taken down. Xavier was plus 300, no, And 721 00:39:22,600 --> 00:39:24,680 that got taken down. I think Jeff makes a good point. 722 00:39:24,680 --> 00:39:27,280 The DraftKings realized they put very public friendly odds. 723 00:39:27,840 --> 00:39:29,720 I do think there's arguments for Indiana. 724 00:39:29,840 --> 00:39:32,440 Like I said, I'll just be surprised if it ends up working 725 00:39:32,440 --> 00:39:35,440 out for everyone. Anyway, Ryan popped up, said 726 00:39:35,440 --> 00:39:38,520 happy Sunday morning. And Ryan, I hate to tell you 727 00:39:38,520 --> 00:39:43,040 this, but we're wrapping this up right now, but this, this was 728 00:39:43,040 --> 00:39:47,360 about a 40 minute show. Please feel free and go back and 729 00:39:47,360 --> 00:39:49,640 watch the whole thing. Leave some comments and 730 00:39:49,640 --> 00:39:51,840 questions. Again, just to reiterate from 731 00:39:51,840 --> 00:39:56,680 the beginning, my final four teams in Vanderbilt, San Diego 732 00:39:56,680 --> 00:40:00,360 State, Texas, North Carolina. I hope I am wrong that North 733 00:40:00,360 --> 00:40:03,000 Carolina's in. I hope I'm wrong that Texas is 734 00:40:03,000 --> 00:40:05,520 in. I wouldn't be shocked even if 735 00:40:05,520 --> 00:40:07,400 San Diego State wasn't in the field. 736 00:40:07,600 --> 00:40:10,880 Like as much as I think overall they'll be fine, I do see an 737 00:40:10,880 --> 00:40:13,040 argument for them to be out of the field. 738 00:40:13,440 --> 00:40:16,560 So it's it's very unsettled right now. 739 00:40:16,760 --> 00:40:20,160 In terms of this last grouping. I think even Delphi Bracketology 740 00:40:20,480 --> 00:40:23,920 noted that there was a lot of debate there because there were 741 00:40:23,920 --> 00:40:28,400 not clear best teams amongst the group that we were trying to 742 00:40:28,400 --> 00:40:33,280 decide the last few bids from. Question here, if we're out, do 743 00:40:33,280 --> 00:40:36,480 we play in the NIT or the Crown? I think given the coaching 744 00:40:36,480 --> 00:40:41,120 change and given the fact that the portal opens on the 24th of 745 00:40:41,120 --> 00:40:45,120 March and the Crown doesn't start till the 31st of March, my 746 00:40:45,200 --> 00:40:48,320 my guess would be that no, Indiana would not be taking part 747 00:40:48,320 --> 00:40:52,120 in either of those tournaments. And even even if, as Russell 748 00:40:52,120 --> 00:40:57,400 points out, the Crown is in Vegas and players get paid like 749 00:40:57,600 --> 00:40:59,480 what you're whatever you're going to get paid in the crown 750 00:40:59,480 --> 00:41:01,640 is not going to be as important as what you're going to get paid 751 00:41:01,640 --> 00:41:05,200 in NIL elsewhere. And if you have to enter the 752 00:41:05,200 --> 00:41:08,640 portal and save yourself, like do you really want to endanger 753 00:41:08,640 --> 00:41:12,000 your market value or endanger the interest of other teams? 754 00:41:12,000 --> 00:41:15,520 If you go and play in a frankly meaningless tournament and get 755 00:41:15,520 --> 00:41:19,080 injured, I think a lot of players are going to be looking 756 00:41:19,080 --> 00:41:22,160 at that and saying that in no way, shape or form is that worth 757 00:41:22,160 --> 00:41:24,080 it. To me, that might mean that 758 00:41:24,080 --> 00:41:27,720 we've got brand names in Vegas for the crown that end up having 759 00:41:28,560 --> 00:41:31,280 the walk ONS playing for them or little used players. 760 00:41:31,800 --> 00:41:34,160 I, I don't think the crown thing was thought all the way through 761 00:41:34,160 --> 00:41:36,720 and it certainly wasn't reconciled with the NCAA's rules 762 00:41:36,720 --> 00:41:40,320 on the transfer portal dates. We'll see I I could be wrong 763 00:41:40,320 --> 00:41:42,480 again, but I'm having a hard time seeing how this is going to 764 00:41:42,480 --> 00:41:44,920 reconcile given that the schools are on the hook for the crown, 765 00:41:45,120 --> 00:41:47,360 but the players are not and there's no contractual 766 00:41:47,360 --> 00:41:49,040 obligations that you play in anything. 767 00:41:49,880 --> 00:41:52,440 So another good argument for changing the system. 768 00:41:53,120 --> 00:41:55,320 Anyway, we're going to go wrap things up. 769 00:41:55,520 --> 00:41:58,000 I'll be back on Twitter throughout the course of the 770 00:41:58,000 --> 00:41:59,000 day. We'll be on the back home 771 00:41:59,000 --> 00:42:01,040 network discord and talking about things as well. 772 00:42:01,200 --> 00:42:04,360 So folks, it'll be a fascinating ride. 773 00:42:04,360 --> 00:42:06,200 I'm looking forward to seeing what happens throughout the 774 00:42:06,200 --> 00:42:09,400 course of the day and we'll see what happens without you. 775 00:42:09,400 --> 00:42:13,360 Hopefully we see them in the field when it's revealed at 6:00 776 00:42:14,120 --> 00:42:16,760 for Crimson Cast. I'm Galen Clavio, thanks to our 777 00:42:16,760 --> 00:42:18,080 presenting sponsor, Home Field Apparel. 778 00:42:18,080 --> 00:42:20,240 We'll catch you folks. On the flip side, stay never 779 00:42:20,240 --> 00:42:22,800 daunted, bring back the Bison. So everybody.