You're listening to the back home network, presented by home
field apparel. Welcome back to the bracket
racket. Yeah, I'm glad you're joining
you. Once again, it is go time for
the n-c-double-a tournament selection process as we are a
week away today. Sunday, March 5th from the draw.
I'm recording this a 1050 in the morning to start with here.
And that means that not only are we only seven days away.
From the draw we're seven days and like seven hours away.
So, this is great. This is exactly the time period
that I look forward to every season.
As the conference tournaments start to wrap up.
We actually have had a couple decided already Southeast
Missouri State. Congratulations, you are
underway in an overtime over Tennessee Tech and Fairleigh
Dickinson. Congrats, I guess, as you want a
semi-final, but you're in a conference that has teams.
Aren't eligible for the NCAA tournament.
So I think at this point unless there's some huge surprise in
another Conference tournament. We've got the two worst teams in
the field. Now, we've got Fairleigh
Dickinson Southeast Missouri State, almost certain to be a
first for game in Dayton between those two teams again unless we
get other upsets as they are both real bad.
So, anyway, we've got 68 teams to put in the field.
We've got two teams already in the field.
Old. And so now the next week will
help us decide the rest of those and we're going to talk about it
here we had some questions from you folks in basketball land
about what's going on with the brackets.
Am I you related stuff some general related stuff?
I'm going to walk through where I'm at bracket wise right now.
Answer those questions and look forward to the important games,
not just today, but in the next couple of days, as far as who's
going to get in and what's eating those teams end up having
before that just a reminder, that the bracket racket is a And
podcast of crimson cast and we are all part of the back home
network and the back home network is, of course, the place
to go for some of the best podcasting that you're going to
find regarding IU Sports, of course assembly, call every
game. There there after the game win
or lose talking about what happened with the Hoosiers,
you've got to do the work podcast covering the women's
team tough loss yesterday in Minneapolis.
You've also got the Crimson cast women's basketball show with
Amanda Foster, that comes out generally every Tuesday,
although Probably going to have a few more episodes coming up
here relatively soon. Be sure to check out the back
home network, consider signing up for our private Community
where you'll get access to insights and interviews that you
don't get in. The regular social media World,
always a good, listen, whether it's coach, add Rania talking
through, what's been going on with IU on the floor, whether
it's interviews with assistant coaches for the Indiana
Hoosiers, just a lot of really awesome content and just a
reminder that the back home network is brought to you.
By home-field apparel your place to go for the finest in college
Fashions, the coolest retro designs, the softest Fabrics, a
little bit of everything for you out there.
I just put an order in. I had another gift certificate
waiting for me because I've spent so much money, you don't
feel the Peril, so it's able to pick up some of their new
collection. I, it's funny like the we talked
about this last time with Scott. We've talked about it with some
others. Like we've all got our our color
niches that we like to go for For and I've been missing a nice
red hooded sweatshirt. So you SC collection drops, I'm
all over that right there. So get on over the home-field
apparel, where you can say, 15% off the first order that you
place there, just use the code home H ome.
Let them know that we sent you also, be sure to follow me feel
apparel on the social zon and Twitter and Instagram and
elsewhere again home-field apparel.com proud sponsor of the
back home network. All right let's I've right into
it, where we at right now, with the bracket I just put my most
recent one together, put it up on Twitter, so if you want to go
check it out and see where everything's at.
I can tell you right now with Alabama's loss.
And with Kansas overall resume, I do have Kansas now is the
number one, overall seed, it's real tight, and I can easily see
Alabama being the number one seed overall still.
But I also think it doesn't matter that much because
frankly, last week I had Kansas is the number two overall, All
seed in the true seed list and so that means essentially Kansas
going in the Midwest and less something insane happens.
And Alabama's going to the South and both of those teams are
pretty much locked into their first and second round sites,
Kansas in Des Moines and Alabama.
In Birmingham, I keep going back and forth about the other two.
Number one seeds, I maintain that they're going to keep
Houston as the number three overall team in the seed list,
even though they don't have his impressive wins as the teams
around them. They've also only lost Games and
I have a hard time seeing them losing the American tournament
and the committee just likes to reward those sorts of teams and
all the predictive numbers say Houston is maybe the best team
in the country regardless of wins or losses, and who they
played. So I've got Houston as the
number three overall and Purdue UCLA.
I've got them going back and forth at UCLA as my fourth.
Number one seed throughout the course of this week, but I
really did a close look at these two teams and I think you can
make Humans for either is the fourth number one.
I went ahead and put Purdue back in today as I just think they're
slightly stronger, even with UCLA beating Arizona last night
at home. I'll give Purdue the nod but
that's going to be one of those where it could go either way it
really could. And I think Purdue definitely
needs to win today against Illinois at home on senior night
or senior day or whatever it is there and probably needs to win
a couple of games in the Big Ten.
Tournament get themselves to the title game.
Because UCLA probably going to run the table.
I think in the Pac-12 tournament, they just look like
by far the strongest of the teams out there.
Looking more at the top of the bracket, my two seeds right now
UCLA as the top two seed, followed by Baylor, followed by
Texas, followed by Marquette. Again, this is a group and I
think you can throw frankly, Arizona Gonzaga and Kansas State
and maybe even Yukon in the mix. I think once you get past the
UCLA, I could see Arguments for Or against any of those teams is
the twos. I think Baylor's got a slightly
more impressive overall resume than Texas right out just
slightly. And I think Marquette has
certainly superseded, what Arizona has done thus far?
I think they're better than Gonzaga, and I think that, you
know, their overall performance warrants a two seed more than
Kansas State or Yukon at this point.
So that's really how I have it set up.
It goes Baylor, Texas Marquette along with UCLA as the two seeds
and then Arizona, Gonzaga Kansas Eight Yukon.
As the three seats for seeds is really where it starts to get a
little bit messy right now, my four seeds are Xavier as the
13th. Overall, on the seed list.
Indiana is the 14th overall and that I've got Tennessee 15th and
Miami 16th. The thing I'll note with all of
these is Tennessee is the biggest wild card.
I think if you go strictly off of resume and quality of wins
and overall strength, in terms of the net, you could Make an
argument for Tennessee, still being a two-seat.
But between the number of losses, they've sustained
lately, the injury situation that they're dealing with.
And this the fact that, you know, when you look at their
record in the SEC and you look at what they've done overall, I
just, I don't know if it's quite as impressive right now and if,
you know you we hear a lot about like, how do we judge these
teams? I just don't know if what
they've done, is actually worth, even a three seed, at this
point, because you look at their overall, Well resume, they are
great in the predictive statistics, they are still
there, S and B Pi, their third, and Sager, and their fifth in
can Palm like those are really good numbers but they're also 22
and nine. There they've got a trojan
neutral winds which is fine but most of their best work away
from home happened a long time ago you know the last time they
won a road game against a team that's likely to be in the field
was at Mississippi State on the 17th of January.
And when they did that, At Mississippi, State wasn't in the
field, you know, they've lost a lot of games lately, and the
games haven't been bad numbers wise, you know?
But you can only sustain so many they in February and March,
they've lost it Florida. They've lost it Kentucky.
They've lost it Texas. A&M, they've lost now at Auburn,
they lost by 10 to Auburn last night.
They lost at Vanderbilt. It's just when I look at that
team from my perspective, I'm like this team is not playing
very well. They're going to finish 11 and 7
in the SEC which is Of itself, doesn't matter that much.
But what does matter is the overall body of work and it just
feels like things have drifted away from Tennessee.
So I won't be shocked if there are three seed.
I'll be a little surprised if there are two, but I really
think they're going to land on the for line.
If not a little bit lower than that, five line for me,
Creighton st. Mary's Virginia San Diego State
and then I'll round it out with the sixth line, Kentucky.
TCU Texas A&M big win yesterday, over Alabama and then I've got
Michigan State actually as the last 60 Michigan State's really
come on strong. They were hovering around the
910 part of the bracket for me, but they've made a lot of really
positive strides here lately. I think as far as how their team
looks and where they rank overall, I've got them.
Just slightly ahead of Duke who is my top 7 seed right now.
So looking at all of that jumping down to the bottom of
the bracket. This is, it's getting
progressively harder to suss out exactly who's going to end up in
the field and Again I'll go back to what we've talked about many
times on this show and on Crimson cast regarding how this
process works. It is not one person sitting
there, trying to map out the whole field.
That's just not how the operation works.
It is a committee and the committee votes.
And so you get some results and some placements that don't
necessarily make sense in a vacuum, but do make sense.
If you think about it as hey, we've got eight teams, ranked
these eight teams and we're going to take the top four.
And see them or we're going to take the top four and those will
be the last four teams in the tournament.
So, you know, when I look at it, like the last four teams I have
in, as at large has right now, I've got pit, Missouri,
Providence and Mississippi State.
Those are the last four buys. And then the the last four in,
so, the teams that would go into the play and games are North
Carolina State, Utah, State, and Nevada, and Oklahoma State.
That's my reading right now. Why those teams, you know, it
really comes down to accommodate.
Nation of things. And, and when you look at the
teams that I've got, just on the outside looking in, it's Arizona
State, Penn State, North Carolina and Michigan.
Honestly, at this point, I could see Arguments for all four of
those teams above any of the four that we put in in the last
four in. But I think the overall
Arguments for each of the teams I've got in right now is just
slightly stronger. Each of them are a little bit
different. You know, North Carolina state
is a team that has, they were in much better shape.
Shape. And then they just, they had a
bunch of bad decisions. Probably the biggest bad
decision, was getting obliterated by Clemson on the
road, excuse me at home, on the 25th of February, but North
Carolina State, they, you know, they've beaten Duke.
They wanted Virginia Tech, which isn't that great of a thing, but
overall, their resumes pretty good.
They really don't have a bad loss.
Although the loss they had at Syracuse is kind of hovering
around potentially dropping from quad to to quad three.
They've got seven total quad one.
Got two victories. They've got seven wins away from
home overall and their strength of schedule overall is 77th
which isn't that terrible? You look at Utah State, a
classic case of a team getting their resume pumped up by a
conference, that knows how to schedule properly Utah.
State only one win in Quad one and it actually just happened.
It was their win against Boise State on Saturday and you look
at them and they have really Lee a bunch of quad 2 wins that look
pretty good on paper. The big thing with Utah state
is, how much are they going to get punished for the, to quad 4
losses? They had at the end of December?
That is the big open question, but the rest of their resume
looks really good, you know, they're their resume overall.
If you look at kpi, their 14th on resume, now, that's probably
a bit of a misleading statistic because strength of record has
them 38. The nitty-gritty report has them
for Night there qualitative is, are kind of the opposite can
Palm loves Utah. State be Pi does not.
So they kind of are one of those teams at twenty, four and seven.
Overall a kind of lands in the middle of things.
They do have 10 wins away from home.
They just they feel like one of those teams kind of like Wyoming
last year. That's going to get rewarded for
an overall body of work rather than being rewarded specifically
for big wins. Nevada was safely in my field
for a long time but they have suffered some some poor results
here lately including losing at home.
Home in overtime to you UNLV last night.
That's that's not good. And then losing at Wyoming last
week. Also not good.
So right now, I've dropped them all the way down to the second
to last team in and I wouldn't be shocked if they didn't make
it in at all. You know, they do have some good
wins, but most of them are at home, San Diego State, Utah,
State Boise State. They also have a one-point win
at New Mexico and it's again, one of those teams where they
don't have the bottom feeder losses.
But To quad three losses now, and both of them happened in the
last week. So you have to look at that and
say, like what's going on with this team?
I still have them slightly ahead of the last team in the field
and it's a team that I had dropped out of my field.
A couple of weeks ago, I think they may have earned their way
back in, and that's Oklahoma State.
This is a tough one, you know? They've now swept, Iowa State.
They want at Texas Tech, they wanted Oklahoma.
Now, only three of those only of those three games.
I think, only one of those teams is making Get in, but those are
still really good wins. And then the question is like,
how much are we going to punish Oklahoma state for a one-point?
Tier 3 loss that happened the first week of the college
basketball season that was that loss of they had at home to
Southern Illinois. They've they're similar case to
West Virginia who is I think definitely earn their way into
the field. Oklahoma state looks okay.
On paper, certainly better than Nevada.
Does they just? I just, it's one of those games
and one of those teams where it's hard to say, for sure.
What the committee's going to look at and decide to do as far
as the team's out. Arizona state had a golden
opportunity to get themselves into the field last night and
they blew it as they end up losing against USC at home.
Excuse me, on the road by 3, that's not a bad loss per se,
but that's a team that desperately needed that win,
even though it would have just been a tear to Victory.
It would have been a game that sorry I guess.
That would have been a tier one victory that would have probably
pushed him over the The Edge there right on the borderline.
As you know, they've done some good work.
They want ad Arizona. They won on a neutral Court
versus Creighton. They want a door again, they
want a Colorado, they beat Michigan on, a neutral floor,
pretty handily. So again, it's one of those
teams where I won't be shocked if they find their way in and I
keep going back and forth on whether they deserve to be in
Penn State is right there with them.
And Penn State, I know of interest to a lot of teams,
they've picked up some scallops as well.
I actually think Penn State and Arizona, State or Similar spots
here where Penn State's wanted Illinois they want at
Northwestern they wanted Ohio State.
You know they had what's a tier 3 loss at home to Wisconsin but
it's hard to really like punish them too much for that.
They're big problem is they just predictive is don't look that
great and their resumes kind of meth.
You know you get you get outside of what they did in those games
and the rest of their winds, aren't that impressive that the
further away you get from quad one.
So I look at those two teams, I think, Arizona State probably
slightly gets the nod over Penn State but again it's closed and
again I wouldn't be shocked if either or both of those teams if
they can string together a winner to in their conference
tournaments finds their way in the last two teams in my first
four out North Carolina. They again, very similar to
Arizona. State had a golden opportunity
to beat Duke at home. I think that would have put them
in the field. I have them in the field.
Last time I took them back out. They just don't have any wins
and then Michigan. Still has a lot to play for. you
know, if you're listening to this before the Indiana Michigan
game, this is what should concern you because this
Michigan team is right on the borderline and a win on the road
would probably push them fully into the field because that's
really, you know, they need one more kind of quad one style win,
I think to separate themselves a little bit from the teams around
them and probably I would say push them ahead of a Oklahoma
State because their overall like record is like a weaker version
of Oklahoma State's but I think that if they I were to pick up
another quad one Victory. They might be able to get past,
not just them, but also in Nevada, as well as the rest of
the teams that are kind of in that mix just outside the field.
So so a lot going on today and certainly when you look at not
just seating but also selection, you know, the big thing right
now. I think for a team like Indiana
is if you win today you're you're probably not going to do
a whole lot to Push yourself ahead of the other teams around
you in the seating process. But if you lose today, I think
you start to legitimately cause some questions about what is
this. Actually, a four seed, or is
this team? More of a five or even a six.
I have a hard time seeing them dropping below a 5 even if they
lose today. But the problem is like, now you
put yourself in a position. If you're Indiana, where if you
lose today and results, don't go your way, you're going to end up
in the 89 game and that's not a great place to be.
Be because you could end up playing in Northwestern or
Rutgers, those are not great losses on neutral floors.
If you then turn around and lose that one as well.
And now you've lost at that point three in a row.
If you were to lose that first round game in the Big Ten
tournament and that, that could drop you down to a six because
you're really at that point, you're thinking about people, I
think to some degree. Forget that if you look at the
top 25, that's essentially the if you were, if they were seated
in a bracket that be your top six seed lines, All plus like
the top seven scene. So you could be ranked in the
top 25 and still be a six or a seven seed very easily.
And I think sometimes people view six and seven seeds is you
know, essentially being also-ran style teams.
It's a pretty good teams there in terms of record that just
don't measure up because they don't win the games that matter
or their my resume just doesn't stack up.
So you know, any Anna wins this one.
It's a win against a borderline tournament.
Team, I probably doesn't move them ahead of a savior or a
Ticket. But a loss here.
I think, definitely could cause some problems for Indiana, if
they, they don't pick it up here because then they find
themselves in a really tough situation.
Moving into the tournament itself, elsewhere in the Big Ten
right now. There's just as you've seen, you
know, the Big Ten, there's been a lot of talk about how they
are. There's a 7 way tie for second
place or whatever it is. Everybody's kind of mid as the
kids would say and that shows when you look at the seed list I
mean Now as I go through the Big Ten seating, I've got Purdue as
a one. I've got Indiana as a 4, and
then you get back past those teams and it's like, well, who
do we have left in the Big Ten? Well, the next team is Michigan
State. Who I've got is a 6, then I've
got Maryland as the last seven seed.
I've got Northwestern Iowa and Illinois, all is eight seeds.
That was fun to bracket. Let me tell you, I've got
Rutgers down on the tan line at this point because they've
really struggled losing that game to Minnesota.
Yeah, that was about as poorly timed to losses.
You could have if you were if your Rutgers, you know.
So essentially what I'm saying here is that the Big Ten has a
bunch of teams that have not distinguished themselves.
This is the last game day for people to do that but the
problem is a lot of these teams are in tough situations where
there it could very well lose. I mean Iowa, I'd be surprised if
Iowa lost at home to Nebraska, I really would.
But I wouldn't be shocked given how Mercurial this Iowa team has
been over the course of the season.
Michigan, we talked about already.
They absolutely have to have this game in Indiana.
If they want to have a shot at getting into the NCAA
tournament, Maryland is played. So badly away from home and so
amazingly at home, you would have expected Maryland, having
played as well, as they had at home to go win at Ohio.
State earlier this week, though. They didn't they lost that game?
Now, they got to go to Penn State.
Who's right on the borderline of the tournament.
Are they going to be able to win at Penn State?
If they do, it would be the first time?
Time. It feels like in a while that
we've seen, Maryland actually do something worthwhile away from
home against the decent team. So, Marilyn, who's right on the
borderline. There of a seven seed, they lose
that game. That's certainly not going to
help them. Illinois, desperately needs to
get another win to demonstrate who they are, but they got to go
to Purdue who weathered the Storm at Wisconsin.
And I think it's put themselves in a position where I have a
hard time seeing Illinois in that kind of an emotionally
charged environment going in and winning North.
Australian Rutgers, you know, Rutgers has really the bottom
feels like it's falling out of Rutgers to a large degree and
it's kind of interesting because as as much as we've heard people
like, you know, Gio Baker chirping about like Indiana, not
being tough. You look at this Rutgers team
and they have lost five of their last seven.
And two of those were at home. One of them was to Nebraska by
10. One of them was to Michigan,
these are teams that are kind of in contact.
They did turn around and win at Penn.
Eight. But then they turn around and
lost at Minnesota and now they have Northwestern at home.
Northwestern has struggled a little bit down the stretch
here. They've lost three in a row.
You know, Northwestern went from looking like the odds-on
favorite to be the two-seat, Northwestern could potentially
be the nine seed if they lose. So both of these teams have a
lot to play for and I would say you know Rutgers honestly they
lose this game, they might be in the first four conversation that
that seems extreme, but If you look at Rutgers resume their,
it's one of the more schizophrenic teams that you've
seen because they're, you know, they won at Purdue.
That's one of the best wins of the Season away from home.
They want it Northwestern, they want it Penn State, but they've
lost to Nebraska Temple. And at Minnesota, those are all
tier 3 losses. They've only won four games away
from home period and the tournament selection committee
really? Doesn't like that.
If they lose today at home, they'd be 10 and 10, 18 and 13
and You know would be a team that would have to win.
I think, their first round game in the Big Ten Tournament to to
avoid falling into the first four.
Northwestern is kind of the opposite in that they don't look
that great on paper, they've certainly done enough to get
themselves into the field. But this is a team that before
this three-game losing streak, I think, was knocking on the door
of a five seed. If they lose this game at
Rutgers, and they lose four in a row, and they finished the
season. 20 and 11 and 11 and 9. Yeah, I think seven seed Seed,
maybe even 9 seed is on the cards.
So this is where the rubber hits the road for a lot of these Big
Ten teams. If you're an IU fan with the Big
Ten Tournament, you want to see this team, get the double by
just to minimize the damage. That might be caused by a loss,
and the reality that Indiana doesn't need to play extra games
to maintain a protected seed, a top four seed in the NCAA
tournament. So if you're Indiana, if you're
Indiana fan, like what you're really rooting for today, you
know, the The ideal scenario would be Indiana, winning
Rutgers beating Northwestern and Iowa losing to Nebraska.
And if that happens, Indiana is the two seed and Rutgers is the
3 seed, and let me tell you, sign me up for that scenario,
because at that point, if you're Indiana, you get to play either
Michigan or Penn State on a neutral floor.
If Penn State wins their game obviously, you know, and that
that's big because I think both of those teams are beatable on
neutral. Hours and then it's going to be
Rutgers Maryland essentially in the other semifinal and that
this is one of the tricky. Things about the Big Ten
Tournament. Like you really want to avoid
being the three seed because the three seed has to play at 9:00
eastern time on Friday, then they have to turn around and
play at 3:30 Eastern time on Saturday against a team that
played earlier in the day. And whoever the two-seat is,
it's kind of like, They want the two seed protected, they
actually end up punishing the three seed more than they
should, I think in those sorts of matchups just with the
turnaround time. So if your eye you that's your
ultimate scenario. You want to see essentially
Nebraska win at Iowa, you want to see Penn State win at home
versus Maryland. Purdue one at home versus
Illinois and Rutgers win at home versus Northwestern.
Now, if Iowa winds and everything else holds Iowa, is
the two seed. Rutgers is the 3iu is the That's
not the worst thing in the world.
Except that, at that point I use going to have to end up playing
probably Michigan State in the first game in the quarterfinals
on Friday. That's, that's, I would prefer
to avoid that. Frankly, if you swap out a
Northwestern Victory, not a whole lot changes, except then
northwestern's the 2 seed instead of Iowa.
The other variable worth noting in.
This would be Maryland winning at Penn State because that would
be the thing that would shove Indiana down into the five seed
game. Now there's there might be a
positive there because Indiana then gets to play the winner in
Nebraska, Ohio State on Thursday and then they play Maryland on a
neutral floor in a game that wouldn't necessarily hurt them.
But I also think playing Maryland on a neutral floor,
would be better than having to play them on the road.
I think it's a winnable game for Indiana.
So all that said, you know what the scenarios are for the most
part and we're going to find out really quickly today.
What ends up happening in the Big Ten?
Let's tackle some questions here on the bracket racket before we
wrap things. Zup.
Let's see, rolling through here. We had had a question from al
Forno. Assuming we end up with a four
or five seed in the NCAA, which I think is a very good
assumption right now. What one seed, do we feel best
and worst about playing against? This is a really interesting
question. I was thinking about this a lot,
you know, because you look at the you're not going to play
Purdue, they're going to keep you away from Purdue's region if
Purdue is the one seat so we do, we'll take them out of the
equation and I'll go ahead and Sub UCLA in.
So we're basically talking about Houston UCLA or Kansas.
I would really prefer not to play Kansas.
I think Kansas is an awesome team and obviously Indiana
already got boat raised by Kansas earlier this year.
You know, would they play as well?
And what I you play as badly on a neutral floor, probably know,
in both cases, but, you know, Kansas just has all the earmarks
of a team that would give Indiana real trouble, you know?
Because they score really well, and they also defend really
well. And And they're not overly
reliant on outside shots and I just think that we already saw
Kansas and the way that they're able to play and how difficult
Indiana had in terms of trying to defend them.
So I'd really prefer to avoid playing Kansas.
I'm not overly worried about the other one seeds.
I got to be honest with you so I look at Alabama and Alabama is a
team that if you really dig into their resume deeply, You know,
their best win on the Year by far is that when at Houston back
in the early December and they deserve a lot of credit for
that. And then you look at the rest of
their schedule and the best team they've beaten since then is
probably either Kentucky or Arkansas.
I mean, it's fascinating because, you know, they they
beat Auburn Auburn. Has almost beat them though.
They took them to overtime. They got taken over time by
South Carolina. They only beat Arkansas at home
by 3:00, they lost at Texas A&M. They've really struggled these
last four games and obviously with the Brandon Miller
situation there and all the the how - the vibe is they just look
like a team that suddenly really struggling.
And even if you look at, you know, before that was taking
place, it's a team that really has, you know, they've risen in
the power rankings largely because of how dominant they've
been in so many games. They beat LSU by 50, you know at
home. They beat Mizzou by by 21 points
on the road and they've had a lot of games like that.
The be Vanderbilt by some ridiculous margin, like 56
points or something like that, 57 points.
But I'm not, I don't know if I'm that like obsessively worried
about them, in terms of what I, you be able to play against them
defensively, it'd be a struggle. And I you would certainly need
to hit shots from outside. And that is what Alabama is kind
of trained to do. But I'm also not totally sure
about out this Alabama teams mentality and a big game.
So I would not be I think Indiana would still lose in a
game versus Alabama but I'm not terrified of Alabama.
Overall UCLA is kind of an interesting case because it's a
similar thing to what we've seen with Alabama in terms of their
accomplishments until they beat Arizona at home last night, you
could make an argument that the best win that UCLA had on their
schedule was a 10-point neutral Court victory.
It's Marilyn. Excuse me against Kentucky now.
They did blow Maryland out at Maryland.
I just don't know what to make of Maryland at this point.
I just can't tell if they're if that's actually a great win or
if that's just an okay win and I also think Kentucky's better
than Maryland overall as a team at this point, the rest of their
wins. And they've done a miraculously
good job of playing a bunch of teams.
In the chem palmtop 150, they had very few games against
horrific teams. They had a lot of games against
very mid-level me, Joker sorts of teams and they won those
games very well. Plus they've got the, the Ken
pom Talisman of having a really efficient defense which always
inflates ratings beyond what they probably should be UCLA.
Does go through some stages where they struggle to score.
They're not a good shooting team, you know, their secret
sauces. They don't turn the ball over
and they rebound the ball very well offensively.
I think Indiana actually has some chances in a game, you
know, against UCLA. So, you know, if there was a
possibility of I, you find Our way into a game against UCLA in
a sweet 16 contest. I'd take that that would be,
that would be great. Houston is a really interesting
case as well because Houston's best win on the whole season is
a semi home win by five against Saint Mary's.
They won at Oregon. They lost at home to Alabama.
They lost at home to Temple. And then they did a beat a bunch
of nothing teams in their own conference.
And I just, I don't know what to make of them.
Their stats look amazing. They Have been incredibly
efficient, both offensively and defensively.
But again I'd be cautious. I think honestly if you're going
to think about filling your bracket out, I would not pick
Houston to go terribly far because I think a lot of their
efficiency numbers are a product of how slow they play.
And you know, I mean, now I say all that and this team did
almost the exact same thing last year, their best win last year
was Oklahoma State on a neutral floor and yet, No, they get into
the tournament as a 5 seat and they make it all the way to the
elite eight. You know they knock off Arizona,
who was the one seed and you know they played Villanova
pretty tight and almost got to the final four.
You know, you could make an argument that the teams that
they played in the tournament last year.
Weren't that great? I mean, UAB Illinois, who they
beat by 15 but we know what Illinois was like last year.
And then Arizona, I'm not frightened of Houston, Houston's
a very good team. I wouldn't be shocked if Indiana
where they matched up against them were to lose But I just
again I look at their profile and I say, I think the right
team who can score consistently against Houston is going to be
able to do something against Houston, you know.
And you know again Houston and Alabama are very similar in that
most of their approach has been just making it very hard for
other teams to shoot and shoot well, but I think that if I use
on and this is the case with IU in almost any game, it's not a
bridge too far. And by the way, Can take I you
out of this and you can sub in other teams, you know, it
doesn't have to be. Just I you I just know from I
use perspective since that was the question.
I wouldn't be too terribly concerned about those teams be,
you know, your you could lose them, no question, but they
don't feel insurmountable and honestly, none of the ones
seeds, look that insurmountable, I think that this I wouldn't be
shocked to see multiple 45 seeds, if they make it to the
Sweet 16. Be good enough to knock off some
of these One seeds in that round.
So again it's not just an Indiana thing.
It's just like I think the Fear Factor for the top seeded teams
just feels a lot lower than it has been in the past as far as
other five seeds that Indiana might play.
Al said he doesn't want to see Kansas.
We agree on that Yukon. I would agree with that st.
Mary's or VCU? You know, if you look at the
teams that are in that general area of the bracket right now,
You're talking about the following, you know, the five
seeds. I have our Creighton st.
Mary's Virginia San Diego State. I think all of those are a bit
of a struggle but honestly, the only one I'd be really terrified
of out of that group is probably Creighton at this point because
Creighton is somewhat undervalued seed wise because of
how many games they lost earlier in the season due to injuries.
You know, st. Mary's obviously Indiana got
destroyed by them in the tournament last year.
But I also think that I, you team was both exhausted and just
kind of happy to be there and st.
Mary's felt like they had something to prove.
I think Indiana would come into that game with a much different
mentality and wouldn't have to have played too well, they
played st. Mary's two days earlier but so
would st. Mary's, in this case, whereas
last year st. Mary's got to just wait and
watch and figure things out. And Indiana was on short rest,
they both be on short rest in this Virginia.
That's a really interesting matchup I ever so slightly.
I'd like Indiana in that matchup on a neutral floor, as again,
like I feel like Indiana in a slugfest we, you know, you would
see them be able to score just enough points to Come Away with
a victory in that game. If you look at IU, you know, in
terms of like their overall. But I use so hard to figure out.
That's the one thing about this Indiana team that is, is the
biggest struggle to me. I feel like you just don't know
what. Going to get out of I you on a
regular basis. And so you have to take
everything with a grain of salt, including all of these matchups
that said Indiana, if you go to a Haslem metrics.com, which is
Eric Haslam site. He does a good job of
calculating kind of neutral Court matchup sorts of things
and he you know, he's ratings don't like Indiana.
But they like Virginia less. And I think that I you versus
Virginia that I think that score predict projections, I You buy
one? It's like 65 64.
I think that's a reasonable matchup for IU.
You know, whereas the same site does not view the st.
Mary's game, I think is a reasonable matchup.
Let me double check the numbers here.
Yeah, they would have Indiana as a five and a half.
Point Underdog on a neutral floor, against Saint.
Mary's, you look at the rest of the teams that are in that mix.
I mentioned Creighton. Again, I think that's a, that's
a game. Where Indiana probably goes in,
it is about a four point underdog.
San Diego State is kind of a curious case because they're
they're really well. Loved, by the power rankings.
Indiana would be about a three, three and a half Point Underdog
to San Diego State. But again, I'm not frightened of
San Diego State. I don't think they've played
that great of a schedule and then, you know, even, you know,
if one of the six seeds climbs up that would be kind of an
interesting one like Indiana, Kentucky is a pretty even game.
There's an outside possibility that that could happen.
Indiana. Texas Christian is, you know, a
game that you look at the the power rankings of those teams
and it looks like Texas. Christian should be well ahead.
That's about a one point game. Essentially with TCU is a very
slight favorite. So I think in the end it
Compares well statistically overall against a lot of these
teams that they might be running into Texas.
A&M's another one that's about a one and a half Point margin in
favor of am so there's really not a whole lot of teams at that
level. That frightened me if Indiana.
Plays up to, you know, the level that you we think that they
could, if you look at the potential 12 or 13 seeds
Indiana's, rated as about a five point favorite over Charleston
right now and I think that that's reasonable.
I don't think Charleston is nearly as good as their record
were indicate. Indiana Liberty is essentially a
dead heat. So I would say avoid Liberty.
If you're Indiana as that's not a team that you want to see in
the first game, Indiana VCU Indiana's.
About a three point favorite in the in that match.
Ouch up. Indiana Oral Roberts Indiana's
about a two point favorite in that matchup.
You get down to the projected, 13 seeds, which is really where
Indiana would be. Seeing those were all 12 seems
that I read off Indiana, be about a two and a half Point.
Favorite over Bradley, Indiana would be about a three point
favorite over, Yale Indiana, Iona, which is one that keeps
popping up as a potential matchup that people freak out
about mostly because of Rick Pitino.
I think people freaking out about that match up or way off
base. They Deanna would be rated by
about a five and a half point. In that game.
So don't be afraid of Iona, just because of the coach and
Southern Miss is the other team that would be in that.
Mix and Indiana be about a seven-point favorite there.
So, you know, at this point, one of the things to keep in mind is
that as we get some bid, thief's, if we get any, you
know, the the teams that are in the 12 and 13 line can sometimes
get worse because you end up with like low-level at large has
as opposed to Level conference champions from smaller
conferences, you know, so if Yale gets knocked out in the ivy
league, tournament by another team?
Well, now instead of it being like, you know, maybe maybe if
Yale gets knocked out and if I owned a gets knocked out, both
of which are very possible. Now you're talking about like
Utah Valley or Toledo or Furman being a 13 seed, that's good.
If you're Indiana like you know you actually want to root for
upsets in the conference tournaments.
You know. You want to root for Charleston.
Lose our Liberty to lose or VCU Toulouse Oral Roberts to lose
because there's going to be worst teams put in at the 14/15
line, maybe even the 16 line and that pushes teams, that would
normally be 15 seeds up to 14 teams that are normally 14 seeds
up to 13 teams, that would normally be 13, seeds up to 12
so on and so forth. It actually makes it easier on
the fours and the fives and even the threes if you get a lot of
conference upsets. So that's if I'm an IU fan
outside of obviously, rooting for the team.
Team to beat Michigan today. You also want to root for some
upsets in these conference tournaments.
So good question. Overall, Al I appreciate you
giving us something to think about there.
A couple of other questions we had from a tournament
perspective we just got a question in from Adam Demery.
It feels like this week other teams have helped I you out with
the wind today, do they move more towards the South Region?
This is the problem with trying to project the Region's you
know. So I ended up with I you in my
most recent Racket actually in the west.
And the reason I had them in the west is that going through the
placement process Xavier dropping down to the four line
and, and Connecticut moving, you know, up ahead of them.
I think I ended up with Xavier on the for line earlier but I
had Indiana ahead of Xavier if Xavier's ahead of Indiana.
It's more advantageous for them to be in the South Region from a
geographical perspective so they would get that first.
So you almost want to hope for Xavier to lose early in the the
in the Big East tournament or win and get themselves up to the
three line. Because ultimately, with the
four seeds Xavier is going to be plopped in the South as long as
there's not another biggie, steam ahead of them in the
South, but so it's tough to say, like, the results kind of helped
I you, but kind of didn't in that teams behind them, like TCU
or, you know, there's a couple of others in that mix Creighton.
You know, they didn't do enough to move ahead of Indiana.
But a lot of it really depends. Like, I ended up with a
bracketing process here, that put Marquette in the midwest
which means that Xavier ended up going to the South and that end
up keeping Indiana out of the South, but it could go the other
direction, if things really get screwed up and, you know,
suddenly you've got Kansas has the number one overall and
you've got Alabama as the to overall and they're in the South
and Purdue isn't a one seed. You could see Purdue in the
South, which would mean that Indiana couldn't go to the
South. That's the kind of Back and
forth that ends up happening, not just with the results below
but with the results above, so I think if you're Indiana you want
to actually root for Purdue to win today and win a couple of
games or me at least one game, maybe in the Big Ten Tournament
with the idea that you want Purdue to be anywhere but the
South if you want I you to be in the South and you know Purdue
being the last four seed and either having to go to the east
or go to the West beans that Indiana all the only restriction
they have at this point would essentially be they couldn't.
Wherever Purdue is. And so that ultimately, you
know, lends itself to Purdue if they win today and they win
their first game of the Big Ten Tournament.
I think Indiana would be in pretty good shape.
As far as going to the four seed in the South as long as there
aren't other things that end up taking them out ahead of it.
And that's where it's like, it's hard to really project.
It would be easier though, going back to Adams question, if
Purdue just ended up as the one seed in the East, that's about
it. As far as the overall.
Bracketing stuff today we'll with there was one question
actually so so Alex G asked in terms of picking the NCAA field.
What are the three or four? Best metrics are criteria to way
when deciding the outcome of the individual games?
And he says, you know, most most very, but the past couple
Seasons I've looked at adjusted offensive efficiency versus
adjusted defensive efficiency. Roster comparison, favoring
teams with seniority, height and Efficiency and then how each
team has fared in the last 10, regular season games.
So it's funny, you mentioned all that Alex, because I've always
said like I'm pretty good at picking the bracket.
I'm pretty bad at actually picking what's going to happen
once the bracket is selected and it's to some degree.
I think I overdose on the rankings of how teams look and
what they should be relative to each other.
And it's funny because you know, then the tournament starts And
all that goes out the window and you end up with one seeds losing
early you end up with upsets in the first round teams that
shouldn't be upset. Like that's that's what makes
picking the bracket for me very difficult.
So to some degree I try to go like just fully based upon how
do these two teams look like they match up in terms of
efficiency on the offensive and defensive ends in terms of tempo
and in terms of overall quality of play, you know, where are
they at? I think your Idea of, you know,
how do these teams look coming into the selection process and
into the tournament? That's a big one because it's
not a misconception that teams as they're struggling to come
into a tournament. Might not necessarily perform
that. Well in that first game, you
know but it's just it's not a foregone conclusion, you know?
I mean last year Miami made it to the elite eight Miami didn't
light, the world on fire. They lost you know what one two
three they lost. We're their last seven games.
They almost lost in the first round of the ACC tournament.
They got taken to overtime by Boston College, and they almost
lost in the first round of the NCAA tournament.
They only beat you see, you USC by 2.
But then they turn around, they beat Auburn in the second round.
Nobody saw that coming. They beat Iowa State, who
themselves was upset, you know, and upset team, essentially.
Iowa State of course, beating LSU and then beating Wisconsin.
They know they went as a six, they win.
And then they, they, they went to, I think against It's who,
what was Wisconsin in that tournament?
They were the three seed they shouldn't have been, but they
were the three seed. So that's where the projections
are really, really difficult to figure out.
I will say this and this has become more of a trend if I were
you from a picking perspective, I would really lean heavily on
teams that are very efficient offensively, you know?
So like Miami last year was a great example of this and
they're actually pretty good example this year, like Miami
should not have been able to advance but Despite being 41st
in kampong, they were 19th in adjusted offensive efficiency
and they were right around the middle of the pack.
In terms of tempo you know, you look at other teams last year
and how they fared you know you've got a similar sort of
pattern, it doesn't always work out.
But like LSU loses their first game last year they were one of
the best defensive teams in the country.
And they end up losing, you know in the first round to a team
that was not very good defensively but was really good
offensively. I'll almost always opt for the
better offensive team when trying to pick a game that looks
relatively even otherwise, you know, so this year this is
where, you know, you look at the the top 25 teams in can palm and
the two teams, I'd really keep an eye out for in that.
I would be afraid to pick against UConn, looks really good
on both. Sides of the ball gonzaga's.
The best offensive team in the country.
Arizona is one of the best offensive teams in the country.
Marquette's a great offensive team.
Baylor's a great offensive team, Xavier is a great offensive
team. These are not teams with the
exception of Yukon that have, you know, great credentials
defensively. They're all under 50th in
defensive efficiency and can pom.
But I like the offense and I like their abilities on that.
Front. On the flip side, I be really
cautious of picking Tennessee, I'd be really cautious of
picking. Let's see, who else would fall
into this category. Iowa.
State is a big stay away for me this year for a variety of
reasons. Not the least of which is
they're just, they're great defensively and they're really
really mediocre offensively. Frankly, Alabama UCLA, maybe not
in the first and second round, but those teams hang their hats
so much on their defensive efforts and Alabama and
particular hang their hat. So much on being the esteem or
one of the fastest teams in the country.
I think they can get slowed down and then I don't know if their
offense is good enough to actually win the games.
This is where is what's going to make Indiana?
Really interesting. Because on the season there, a
better offensive team than they are defensive team by a pretty
significant margin and that was the case.
Even before the Iowa game, I think Indiana.
If you look at them right now, they have the offense to win a
first-round game, a second-round game and give a, you know, if
Indiana is firing on all cylinders, which they don't do.
That often. But when they do if they're
playing a team that isn't as good as them offensively, I like
their chances. So, we'll see what happens as
far as that's concerned. You know, from a picking
perspective. It feels like we've swung very
much into an era where offense Will trump defense in a
tournament setting the other team?
I'll mention that's a dark horse right now.
Based upon these numbers is West Virginia.
West Virginia is get the 16th best offense in the country.
They play pretty fast. They've been really unlucky.
This We're in a lot of their results and man, you get with
like West Virginia as like a nine seed or a 10 seed, if they
get out of their first-round game, I'd be terrified of them
as a one-seater, a two-seat because I think that's where
they're going to land. And they have all of the the
earmarks of a team that could come in and really create
problems. They get to the free-throw line
a lot. They offensive rebounding is
really, really good. And they, they don't rely so
much on just holding another Teams shooting percentages down.
They do a great job of speeding, the other teams up forcing
turnovers. They commit a lot of fouls, but
overall, I think that's a team that once they get into a
tournament, you know, environment, where they're on a
neutral floor, they could really make some hay.
So, that's what I would say about picking games, just be
careful. As as I think, is a good advice
overall with all of this, don't you?
You know, use use the the statistical measures that are
out there. Don't make dumb decisions in
terms of who you're picking and why, and just remember that
offense is probably better than defense in a lot of cases.
Anyway, that'll wrap it up for us here on the bracket bracket.
Thanks for joining us. A lot of great basketball.
This whole week starting today, and really all the way through
the next week. This is my favorite week of the
year even more so than the first week of the NCAA tournament.
So I hope you guys enjoy and gals, enjoy watching the games,
picking the games. It should be a lot of fun.
I look forward to chatting with you all later on in the week
will update. What's going on in the bracket
will give you our seating projections?
Be sure to follow Crimson cast on Twitter where the brackets
get posted about five days a week.
I'll probably do one every day this week leading into the field
selection on Sunday. This is the bracket bracket part
of the back home network. Thanks to home field apparel and
thanks to all of our partners on the back home network.
I'm Galen clavius will catch you folks on the flip side.
So long, everybody.