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Crimson, kescott here with you excited to bring back, Joe from
131 Sports. Before we get there, just want
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131 Sports. Joe man.
How you doing? I'm doing.
All right, I'm a Still a little bit flustered with the results
that that unfolded earlier this week, but especially the
friendly reminder coming and I, you pod, have it just sting a
little bit that much more. I honestly am a little bit of a
cynic thinking that you're bringing me on the spot just be
like, hey, I'm bringing on the Michigan guy to needle of a
little bit, but now I'm doing. All right.
How are you Scott? I'm doing well, yeah, actually,
we've already talked for 20 minutes, I forgot to hit record,
so I'm not going to make you go through all of the IU.
Ian stuff twice because then I'm officially in dick territory.
So we'll keep it easy. I'll just say I was at the game
with my buddy, Danny, and he was like, we're not going to close
this out and they didn't close it out and like I'll say it's,
you know, see like I said to you before but you know, it's I've
never been the I know more than the coach guy because coaches
obviously you know what they're doing, you know, deal of D1,
level coaches, obviously are not stupid and I always think of my
dad who's just like why do they shoot He throws more.
I'm like, I'm sure they practice it.
Like I'm sure I'm sure it's not like Archie Miller, just forgot
to practice free throws for four years.
That said, watching the team come out three, straight times
with the chance to win the game and Michigan and seeing three
plays that are kind of like, wow, that's that's, you know,
again, just for my cheap seats. It does make me wonder like,
what is going on there, on the game, coaching side on the
Michigan Sidelines? Yeah, no.
It's been the story of our season certainly as a Michigan
Fan, I've almost become a little bit numb to it because it's
happened over and over again where we get put in close games
and and can execute and can't finish.
I saw an interesting graphic at one point regarding Michigan's
performance in close games. This was before the two most
recent overtime losses and Michigan was something atrocious
to an 8-3. Nate I don't know exactly what
the criteria was to Define it as a close game you know,
possessions or margin or Or went, you know, like if it count
over time, any overtime game, what have you but Michigan's
record has been atrocious and you think with the experience
that they have with the assistants on the bench?
I know you want still relatively new as a head coach, but, you
know, martelli's on the bench. He's got three decades of
experience. They got a lot of holdovers from
the B-Line era that they'd be able to dial up.
Something in the late game situation, from an X's and O's
perspective that works better than whatever.
The Frankly trashes that they've run the last few games.
So and that that leads us to the Big Ten Tournament.
You got Michigan playing Rutgers.
It feels like that's you know from my perspective feels like
that's a winner you know loser leaves town match.
The like the loser is not going to make the tournament.
I think it's a chance. Rutgers might still make it.
But you know again your site 131 sports.com, one of the
highest-rated on the bracket Matrix year in year out.
How do you see that game as that?
Is that a winner winner, get in and loser goes home match.
The, the term that I've seen, that's been in Vogue for that
game that I subscribe to is, it's a play out game.
So, the, I think the loser of that game is certainly out of
the field. So, right now, I have my most
recent Bracketology I've Rutgers is one of the last four teams in
and I have Michigan not in the first four output in the next
four out. So one of those last one of
Eight teams on the outside looking in.
So I think if Rutgers wins they're very likely going to
solidify their spot in the field.
Pending bid Steelers and some, you know, like a Deep Run by
some teams that are currently on the outside.
I think Rutgers likely makes it in with a win Michigan.
On the other hand, I think when just keeps their season alive,
losing their certainly out when Extends their season, so they
have some hope. But I do think that the bare
minimum for Michigan to receive a bid is that they would have to
be truckers and Purdue and it might even be the case that they
need to make a run to the Big Ten Championship depending on.
Like I said, the all of the the games don't happen in a vacuum
that think that's a that's a scene from Last time and that's
a theme that will have this time to you know.
Like there are so many moving pieces up.
You get to selection Sunday that determine where what teams make
the field where everyone gets seated and, you know, Michigan
certainly in my opinion needs to win, two games here, both
Rutgers and Purdue to Merit at large consideration.
And it might even be three depending on what unfolds
elsewhere as sad as it is for me to say, is as a Michigan fan,
that cat that had to got to watch to go.
Alden Road, quad, one wins slip through our fingers, multiple
times, not even just one game, one time, it was multiple games
multiple times. So yeah, in multiple weeks a lot
of a lot of close games. Yeah, it's, you know, I think
that's what you look at. Michigan.
It's like just some not a lot of Tier 1 wins.
And and yeah you get to a point to where I do think rightly, or
wrongly you kind of get seated in these areas, then it's like
you have to start jumping teams. It's not just about your resume,
it's about other teams resumes than like, You start getting a
bunch of bids dealers in there, the path just continually gets
gets harder and harder as look at the rest of the Big Ten
Tournament. I'm going to save some of my
India, we had a bunch of we sent out for questions.
Got a bunch of good questions, a lot of them Indiana based.
I'm curious, you know, Purdue again, always screwing up
Indiana's plans, I want the South Region for Indiana's sake
and it was kind of lining up perfectly when Purdue was the
one in the west or the East. It feels like Purdue's kind of
sliding. Down to the to do you see Purdue
having? If they make a run, could they
get to the one or? Are they pretty well locked into
that too? No matter what happens?
I live right now and if you look at it on the bracket Matrix you
know I'm just one bracket ologist granted I've had you
know pretty pretty solid performance in the past but in
aggregate you look at the bracket Matrix and it's kind of
a coin flip between UCLA and Purdue you have.
I think both teams have an opportunity to earn that last
one seat. I think you're pretty solid that
Alabama. Houston in Kansas are going to
be your other three ones, and UCLA and Purdue are kind of
playing for that that last one spot Purdue as an opportunity.
If they, you know, like make the the the Big Ten championship and
UCLA bios out early, they have that opportunity to solidify
themselves as that final one and So I think it really depends on
what the committee does with what I perceive as frankly, a
coin flip between UCLA Purdue you know look if it also depends
on so UCLA had a pretty major injury with Jaylin Clark so
there's presidents in the past for the committee.
Moving teams around on the s-curve based on their perceived
impact of a of an injury especially they ask More
information on the player status and when they're going to return
and they have that go into where team is going to be seated for
better for worse frankly, I don't know that.
That's the appropriate approach to, you know, there's some
there's an argument to be had that they that team performance
up until that point should be way more impactful than
guessing, how teams going to perform with a player that's
injured. But they have leaned into that a
little bit, so that certainly could impact whether or not
Purdue or UCLA, get that final one seed so that, you know, like
he the dream. Yeah.
The dream scenario is Purdue gets that last one seed and goes
out west so that Indiana doesn't have to go out west to get the
right the the the silver lining of that.
If they do get put out west, they will get UCLA's there.
One. And I personally think that UCLA
would be the weakest one seat especially with the Clark
injury. You know, if Purdue gets that
final one seed than Indiana, can't go out west with them and
so they end up getting put in a region with one of the locked in
ones that I think are stronger teams in that scenario.
If I'm a phenomenal, I'm an IU fan, you know, like I'm probably
cheering to get Kansas, I guess Kansas Got a lot of experience
in a lot of close games, but I'd rather play Kansas than Bama or
Houston and I think that the, the advanced metrics would
probably support that. And I mean, fortunately, we did
that once and didn't get was in Lawrence, didn't go too.
Well, wouldn't be. I mean, but if we play them,
we're playing Kansas City, which is, which is similar to Lawrence
and I think that's where we played them in 93 when we got
bounced in the regional final. I think that was also Kansas
City. Is Kansas if memory serves
right? I just I'm looking at Louisville
like I just Louisville is so tasty for an Indiana fan.
If we can get that as our second way, we got a lot of stuff to go
between here and there, the other big 10 team in on that
side of the bracket that I've been curious about is Michigan
State. In the, in the discussion, we
had that was unrecorded. We were talking about, you know,
what, the committee might be looking for this year based on
the early, the Early seating selection and we were talking,
you know, maybe it's the last 10 games, Michigan, It is come on
of late, if they're still in that, you know, 786 range of
seating. If I look at the bracket Matrix
right now, like they're kind of a six seed, it feels like, you
know, they have the operator. I feel like they've been kind of
under seated, for a lot of this process.
Their resume is pretty good. What do you see?
They're kind of long term pot. Like, if they could go through
beat, Purdue knock through to the to see, like how, how much
at stake is for Michigan State in this tournament.
I think Michigan state has a lot at stake, frankly because they
have the opportunity, you know, if assuming that if Wisconsin
can beat Ohio State and that first round the, with the winner
of the Wisconsin, Iowa game is either a tournament team if it's
Iowa, or at least a borderline tournament team, if it's
Wisconsin. So they have that opportunity of
what would be the winner of the Iowa Wisconsin game.
And then what is if its chalky an opportunity against Purdue
with they can Make the Big Ten Championship.
I think they would solidify their spot as a six seed.
And if you look at outcomes for getting to the second weekend,
the the outcomes are much better for 60 drawing a three than a
seven drawing or two and definitely much better than a
triangle one. So there's a lot at stake
because if Michigan loses the first game, they play, they have
the risk of Michigan State lose. The first game, they play, they
have the risk of dropping to an eight seed.
If they win a couple games, they could rise to solidify.
Their spot is a six seed and that just creates the
opportunity when you are in that, you know, that mid-single
digits range, your kind of expectation or goal is just make
the second weekend and the the outcomes for six seeds are much
greater than seven or eight seats just because you avoid
those ones and twos for your second game and frankly honestly
the same Same phenomenon unfolds and as a Michigan fan, I got to
experience last year. Much to my joy.
Is that 11 being an 11 seed, is typically better from a make the
second weekend or make a run perspective than it being a 10
seed or nine seats. So I was actually pretty happy
that that Michigan didn't send any higher than they did and
we're able to get 11 and face face Rick Barnes to always
chokes and March. Yeah, I agree except For the 11
when he got to play the first four sucks because then we went
from Dayton to Portland in 36 hours and had to play.
That was not fun, but that's why you don't want to be in the
first four. Are you, are you, you know, when
I look at the, you know, resumes of Indiana versus Michigan
State, you know, Indiana's kind of been in that three, four,
five range Michigan. Say, it's like I said, it's been
a little bit lower. It feels like Michigan, State's
a little bit under seated. Now Indiana's, probably has
better tier won't, you know, net, one row.
Oh twins. Michigan, State's got a tier 3
loss which is not ideal but their predictive Czar pretty in
line. I'm just curious when you look
at from a bread it's too kind of random teams that don't match up
perfectly. But when you look at it you know
two teams like this, you know, have you seen Michigan State
under seated or can you explain why I like, why is there like a
three-line seed difference there?
Thusly, I would shock this mostly up to the parody and the
thin margins between all of these seams right around that
that ballpark, you know, the you these resumes are between that
four and seven line. Honestly.
Michigan State's probably the cut off their mean, you can
maybe throw in a Northwestern as also being comparable.
But you look at a lot of these resumes.
You look at Iowa State, ECU Creighton Michigan State
Indiana. You got teams that have less
than Sterling records, but have played really tough competition.
They look good in the net. They've had a lot of quad One
games. They've had some, a lot of quad,
one wins those teams are, it's it's going to be on the
committee to really dive into the not.
Just look at it, seems on paper and dive.
Into how they view individual wins and find some marker, or
heuristic such that they can distinguish these teams because
it's, it's dark clothes between, you know, with that Indiana's
who I have is the last four and Michigan State.
Why have is the number 27 seed? I think that the gap between
those is smaller than people realize.
Yeah, I would agree. So focusing a little bit on
Indiana, you know, the thing that I felt good about the draw
that we Art is - you know, Minnesota making a run through
all the way to the semifinals. It does feel like assuming kind
of a chalky Maryland first round game, it feels like we're in,
you know, there's not a lot of bad losses in our future
territory and, you know, we're right on the edge of that for
line, but it feels like I think we're kind of locked into a for
either way. It has question of, you know,
couple different ways, Matt automat, Roth, appreciate Ur
Love the name on Twitter. Why would a first round loss to
Maryland in Nebraska knock I you to a 5 seed, question by Aaron
at camera 26 on Twitter. What is our seat if we lose on
Friday night? So I think I think we got a four
seed pretty well locked up but I'm curious your thoughts on it.
So they're they're certainly as I said earlier with this being
an evergreen statement, there are a lot of moving pieces.
So it's really impossible to say.
Everyone wants to view it in a vacuum.
Binary, we win this happens. We lose This happens.
But I have with, I you like I said, there's I just talked
about how thin those margins are between all those teams in that
area and with IU as what I perceive as the currently, as
the last four seed. You put that with the fact that
the committee members will certainly be watching the game
as part of their quote unquote. I test.
Which is something that I don't believe, I kind of went on a
tangent and the Diatribe, last time I was on about how I wish
the committee's composition was much different.
It was people that cared more about watching the games and
watching these teams but they, you know, like um, Conference
tournament time. They do more that I test and
they see those teams and especially with this committee
like we alluded to earlier, putting some onus on recent
performance. I think that there there there's
an opportunity that that I you could fall to a 5.
So if I'm an IU fan, I'm paying. Type of on top of I, you
strongly, wanting to win that game.
There are other teams that you don't want to pay attention to.
If I think that there they will lock in a for with a win
regardless of who it's against you know like if if Nebraska
stuns Maryland and they get Nebraska just win that game when
that game it's an extra win even if it's not a good win that's
just an extra wind to put in the win column so that Numbers a
little bit higher, if it's whatever, and that's something,
you know, my partner, Gala and I were talking about the other
night is that, you know, and you can speak to this as well.
It's like the committee doesn't just Sunday morning.
Start putting this together like I would say tomorrow or
Wednesday, they're they're meeting their vote.
You know, everything has to be a vote there.
They're probably seeding the tournament right now and then
moving people around. So the fact that we're playing
that game Friday night at 9:30 at night, you know, we've
already And probably slotted where we're going to be slotted.
So, you know, the idea of, you know, it's not like I do think
they watch it and has some bias see.
But I also think that there is a bit of an anchoring process that
happens where it's like we have these teams kind of slotted and
it's going to be hard to start. Moving to three seed lines one
way or the other for a team like Indiana when they play that late
in the process and then so many other things are happening
around them. Yeah.
Certainly I would say that. With that in mind, I would pay
attention to upcoming results in other tournaments to determine
if India because Indiana just by not playing, might slide like
you said, if they have an anchoring point, if that
anchoring Point going into Friday's a 5, then they might
need to win to get back to a for saying that in the scenario.
Where say st. Mary's knocks off the zags?
I don't know. I was hoping to be why you would
come back last night. Like, I'm watching that like a
Saint Mary's loss would have been helpful.
Yes, super helpful, you know, pay attention to basically, if
you just look at, if you want to use my website, which obviously,
I'm going to advocate for you. Look at the teams that are in
the 5 line, you know, Miami if Miami's the one seed in the ACC
tournament if they hold serve and win the ACC tournament that
there's an opportunity that they might bump.
Indiana down if India, especially if Indiana loses that
first game or TCU and Iowa State who have similar resumes where
it's, You know, like a lot of losses, but they've played a lot
of high quality opponents. A lot of quad One games, you
know, I have been that pulled up right now and tcu's literally
one spot ahead of Indiana with a couple more quad, one wins and a
couple more quad, one losses. So if you were to compare them
to at ECU or an Iowa state, which Iowa State's has nine,
quad one wins, which is just unheard of half of their Windsor
quad one. Those two teams.
If either of them, especially with the depth and the quality
of teams that are in the Big 12, if you have of them, make a big
12 run, then I think the four seed is in Jeopardy.
So I know that this kind of contradicts what you were saying
and I hope you don't take offense to that.
No, you have to defer to me as the expert.
No, I'm just kidding. But I would say, I would say the
likelihood of falling to a 5 seed with a loss to marylander
Nebraska is probably honestly greater than 50%.
Unfortunately. From just because of all of
those teams that are knocking on the door, right there.
If if Indiana is, in fact sitting at that last four seed
spot right now. But I think that the likelihood
of being a four seed with a win in that game is 95% something
obscenely high. So I think it's any and I think
is playing to lock in that for seat or, you know, like a loss
would probably put them out slightly worse than a coin.
Flip to move down to a five when were you have them?
And I think a lot of other people do kind But they the tail
end of that four seed line on the s-curve.
It does also feet and, you know, let's just make it chalky, we
get Northwestern, which is a, that's a good non-conference
win. If we play them in the semis,
even Illinois, Penn State, like any of those teams are great.
It's not, that's not going to move the needle, the only game
that would move the needle as if we play honest, think Purdue or
Michigan State in the finals. And maybe just Purdue is the
only team that would really move the needle for Indiana.
I'm not even sure all of that is enough.
Oof to jump us to a 3 because I think we have to jump going off
of your bracket. Like Virginia Xavier Connecticut
are all ahead of us in the for line and then you need one of
Kansas State Marquette. Gonzaga Tennessee to drop.
That's a lot of movement for what would be honestly like a
36-hour staying for Indiana basically again we're waiting
playing late which is good but I think it also works hurts us.
I'm curious your thoughts on that.
Like is does Indiana have that upward Mobility or they're just
too many teams to jump. I I think that there are too
many teams to jump and I'll say that, you know, like with.
So if you look at the three of the teams that are ahead of
them, someone immediately out of them, you have Connecticut, save
your Marquette. That's three big east teams.
They're not going to be able to jump all three because one of
those three is like going to win, is going to win, or make
the make the finals and and do enough, especially with the
quality of the Big East that that they will stay ahead of
Indiana. Yeah, Gonzaga with, you know,
like being in the finals of West Coast Conference and playing see
Mary's there, which wouldn't be a bad loss.
I don't think that they're moving off the three line.
I think the The Hope could be that Virginia losses.
And this is still this is The Longshot Indiana would have to
make that run and you'd have to see an early loss for Tennessee
and an early loss for Virginia. So that moves them up what two
spots. Yeah.
I mean I'm still thinking and then hopping the other two big
east teams so that only one of those three big east teams
remains ahead of them than they could get that last three but I
just I'm shooting it as a sort of pipe dream as if I was an
Indiana fan der to get all the way back up to A3.
Yeah. And we you know we had our
chances like don't lose by 20 to that home to Iowa, don't do
that. If you want to be a three i-i'll
ask you this, looking at the take it.
Lens away from Indiana unless it sounds like Indiana is not going
to be the answer to this question.
Who in the Big Ten Tournament? Do you think has the most growth
in their seating ability? So like I think Rutgers and
Michigan, like they obviously have the most to play for
because they lose, they could be out, obviously, Purdue could get
to A-1, which is big, but of the teams in that mix.
Like, who do you think? Could jump two, maybe three seed
lines. If they have just a killer Big,
Ten Tournament, I do honestly, I don't or, is it not possible?
I don't think anybody's jumping three.
I think even to honestly is unlikely, I would say.
So this, this gives them something to play for.
I think you could see. So right now I have Maryland as
an eight. I think Marilyn could get up to
a 6 if they make a run, you know.
Like if they if they beat Nebraska, if they knock off, you
all, if they Regardless of who they play in the semis, because
right now I have Illinois, Penn State, Northwestern all is
tournament teams. So they'd have an opportunity to
win three games to of, which would be against tournament
quality opponents? That, you know, like depending
on what shakes out elsewhere, I think Marilyn has the
opportunity to hop up all the way to a succeed if they can win
the Big Ten tournament or at least make the finals.
The part of me, part of the reason that I say that, is that
if you look at Maryland's resume, they were alive for the
pretty heavily. I'm on their performance, on
their home court. So if they can demonstrate, it's
all at home, everything they've done is at home.
Yeah. Right.
Look at that they had had stayed on the ropes and and Happy
Valley and then they choked on applesauce to take a phrase from
a particular radio DJ from. I don't know if you've ever
heard of Mike Valenti's a radio Jay and Metro Detroit, he is a
very when we when we're done here.
Look up. Mike Valenti chokes on
applesauce Notre, Dame rant, one of the most famous sports fans
of all time. It's on YouTube so I took that
phrase from it, there's the chokes on apple sauce.
I use that all the time. I'm a pretty avid golfer.
So whenever I'm about to, you know, break 90, break 80 or
something. And I double bogey, the 18th
hole, I choked on applesauce, so as long as at any rate, Eight
Maryland Show Breaking 80 Brigade.
He's good broke. That's that's that's a good day
anybody's book. Go ahead and sure but Maryland
Maryland. Yeah, all that is to say they
choked on apple sauce a little bit against Penn State
demonstrating their sort of inability to win away from home.
So if they can demonstrate by going on a run in the Big Ten
tournament that they can win on a neutral court against quality
opponents, then I think they have an opportunity to move up a
couple seed lines coming there there there.
Resume is bananas. I mean their predictive Czar
pretty good. I mean they're you know, average
average of everything is 27, you know, but you look at their
wins. They have, you know, a tier 1.
51 wins gets proven Indiana, both at home neutral site
against Miami. You got to go down to at
Minnesota and at Louisville are there only two Road wins this
year. Everything else is home or
neutral Court. And then just a ton of you know,
rode Tier 1 loss is just a, it's a wild profile.
Yeah. Road wins against the worst team
in the Big Ten and the worst team in the ACC.
Yeah, and Alvaro 81 246. That's that's a, that's an ass
kicking in my book but doesn't really matter.
It's a tier 3 game against a really bad team, but, yeah, it's
like they are, they just need to kind of do the.
Hey, we're playing a home game even though it's in Chicago,
like, they've got to just pretend like it's a home team
and they do that. They're with In this National
Championship. Sure.
So what let's let's kind of wrap up with this with a couple other
questions about Indiana. You know, one other question
came from Debbie Meyer at Frankenmuth Franken fake.
Debbie Meyer on Twitter at fake Debbie Meyer.
Took me a little bit to get that out.
What are the chances? I un zip in Orlando, I'm going
to expand on this question, just to give you a little more room
to breathe here. You know what I personally think
that, you know, Columbus is going to be out, I think Xavier
probably takes that from us. We're just too far down on the
for line. So, you know, do you think we go
to Orlando? I look at At from a location
perspective again, I'm kind of focused on like I want to get
that Louisville sub-regional. So my question second part is
like do you think that's possible?
And then how important do you think those kind of location
decisions are going to be for a team like Indiana?
Or should we just be focused on who's the weaker one seed?
I mean it depends what what fans would prefer in terms of what if
you account for Miles traveled which certainly plays the the
any advanced model that projects the outcome of the tournament
which I have one of that does a company account for what's
called euclidean distance which is just a fancy way of saying,
as the crow flies, distance that distance Miles traveled does
impact your outcomes. So being closer to home and
playing a tougher team in exchange for being closer to
home more enjoyable as a fan. Certainly because you might be
able to your, it's not prohibitive to travel to the
game, but it's a tougher team to be so I mean you can look at it.
You can look at it both ways frankly, you know to as a fan I
think and At somebody, if I was an Indiana fan and I'm sitting
there as a team, that's my opinion, like a borderline 45
team right now, your primary goal is to get out of the first
weekend. You know, make the amazing Swiss
meet this. Make the sweet sixteen and
everything after that is just icing on the cake.
I know that's hard with the history of Indiana.
If you go back decades and decades, the Bobby Knight are
around and not going to really, that's that's that would be
great. And he recently the last 20
years that's a Welcome change. Yeah, absolutely.
And so in that vein, the sub-regional Pod that you get
put in and the proximity to Bloomington is as much more
important than the regional in that vein of making the sweet 16
to Circle, back to the question in terms of what's what would be
better? Play a weaker one in a region
that's farther away or close better one and a closed region.
I mean I think it's I don't think that there should be a
preference. I think either way and you and
you have us in Orlando in your room most recent bracket so it
sounds like to answer the question.
We got on Twitter your chances are right out, least pretty
high. We're going to end up when
Orlando based on how those get, you know, hand it out.
Yeah, I would say that if I were to just sign a sign an arbitrary
likelihood, I'd say there's a probably about a 90% chance that
I you ends up in Orlando or Albany those two regions.
Annals based on how the bracket is sort of shaking out right
now. Orlando, if you look at what I
have in my bracket right now the every four and five game takes
place in Albany Orlando just because of the regional.
The the geographic preferences based on the sub-regional pot,
availability of the teams that are on the one, two, and three
seed line. I do think that there's an
outside shot of something like Greensboro or Des Moines, but I
think that There's maybe one in a thousand one in 10,000 that
Indiana ends up in in the dream scenario of Columbus.
So, you know, like I think who's, who's in that, in that
scenario who is taking Columbus from us.
I mean, obviously, you know, it goes by preference.
So, you know, let's just say, I'm going off of your current
bracket today, you know, Alabama, you have is the one
seed. So they, you know, for those who
don't know, like they get to basically pick and you correct
me if I'm wrong, but you know, my understand is they get to
pick the sub-regional and then, you know, our The committee
picks the most advantageous sub-regional for them and then
Houston and then Kansas UCI. So on so forth.
Who in your in your kind of snake draft who's taking
Columbus ahead of us as of right now Marquette?
So that's going to be that that's the tough part.
Is you're going to the. That's why I think it's a it's
kind of a pipe dream to be in Columbus is because I think that
Marquette takes Columbus Xavier certainly takes Columbus, if
they're ahead of you. I mean, even Connecticut, Light
take Columbus. If someone else takes Albany,
you know, if there's there's certainly opportunities for
Columbus to be. You might even get in a scenario
where this is a very strange one, but where you have Gonzaga
take Columbus because if you think about where gonzaga's and
their travel time as the crow flies to Columbus is going to be
shorter than it would be to Orlando or Albany.
And and they So, so that would be a wild scenario where Gonzaga
takes Columbus from from Indiana, but there's I mean,
your understanding is correct. Basically, it's as my
understanding is your understanding is correct.
If my understanding is correct, they look at it as the crow
flies, I actually have never heard the committee and might be
that. I've just not saw it and they
have actually describe this, but I've never seen if the committee
looks at just as the crow flies, Drive time, or flight time and
proximity to Regional airports. I don't know.
I know that they take distance into account, but I don't know
when those methodologies what they take into account.
So I do know that they try to put teams in order on the
s-curve, you know, like obviously each sub Regional gets
to two pods. And once those are taking up,
then you get to the next most advantageous Regional.
The other thing that they do just for informational
perspective, for those that are listening, is the top four
seeds. Are you may have heard this term
before protected seeds in the sense that they will not put
them or they will, I don't think that it's not, but them, they
will the way they phrase. It is something like, they will
try their hardest, not to put them at a geographic
disadvantage in their first round game.
So you're not going to get a scenario where If I'm trying to
do this quickly off the cuff, but you're not going to get in a
scenario where this is a bad example because it's not going
to happen, but Indiana has a four seed who I currently have
them playing Utah Valley. In the most recent bracket,
you're not going to get us an area where Indiana has to play
Utah Valley in Denver or Sacramento, because that would
be a geographic disadvantage for them.
So they avoid they would send Utah Valley somewhere else.
So that Indiana plays it. A team that doesn't have a
geographic advantage in their location.
So, but in that in that vein, we had a Twitter question from
Daniel Corral, how much would vanish it to get a four seed.
So you avoid the dreaded 512 matchup that question but also
just on top of that, you know, in your bracket you have Miami
Florida playing in the same pot as us with a 5 seed and that
becomes a geographic disadvantage basically.
Because, you know, we're Indiana gets to pick Air quotes their
spot and then you kind of circle back around and then, you know,
the committee tries to place those next meal five, six, seven
teams in places that make sense is, you know, from a geographic
possession perspective, is it better to get a 5 seed?
If you're Indiana, maybe you get Columbus that way.
But then again, looking at Daniel's question then, are you
getting stuck in that dreaded 512 matchup.
So, I'll handle listen in chunks.
First and foremost with Miami going to Orlando.
Do once they get beyond the floors, they start just putting
the they start trying to put teams in their geographic region
as close as possible and the protection for those top four
seeds only last for the round of 64.
So they would they wouldn't bat an eye at making Indiana play in
Miami with a geographic disadvantage because it's a 45.
So, they only protect them the based on bracketing procedures
as the written today. They're only required To attempt
to protect these top four seeds for the first round, or the
round of 64. I guess it's defendant, I always
say, round of 64 because ever since the playing games.
Yeah boy go. First round is the playing
games? No, nice.
A first round is on a 64, but, so they wouldn't Bandai at
making Indiana. Play Miami in Orlando.
Next Indiana is not just because of how the, at least, if the
tournament started today and how the bracket shakes out, To a
five, isn't you're going to change things because the four
and the five sub regionals are the same because the for has to
play into the 5 and the same sub-regional.
So if they move from a four to a five, they're still going to
have that same. It's probably Orlando or Albany.
I don't think that that changes things, all that much to the
Twitter question. I saw that actually I got
notified of that question when it was asked on Twitter and so I
was Obviously, we're all familiar with the, the 512
matchup, it's a classic and the 12 seed, over the five seed
upset. But I wanted some data to back
it up. So I actually looked up the
record of the five verses 12 verses, the four verses for 13
in the modern tournament era for seeds, beat 13 seeds. 78% of the
time 5 seeds, B12, 65% of the time.
So that's a 13% win likelihood drop off.
That's massive. If you compare That 26 verses
eleven six and 11 is honestly, it's I think it's I didn't I
don't have this down, mark down anywhere, but I'm pretty sure
it's only a couple percentage points different so the drop
from for 13 verses 512 is is pretty pretty big and and then
if you take it a step further and like I said about making the
sweet 16 about half of the four seeds make the sweet sixteen,
whereas only a third of five seeds make it part of that
obviously is just because five seeds don't even have an
opportunity because they lose that first round game.
Right? I mean if your goal is make the
sweet sixteen or at least get out of the first round and avoid
that heartbreaking upset, it's very important to maintain that
for seed just because this is, this isn't so much in the data
as it is my what I've seen paying attention to the
tournament and as a bracket ologist with bid Steelers and
went, what's usually your 12s, are you get the entire 12 line
is filled with teams that were the one seed in their conference
tournament. They won their conference
tournament, Tournament dominated their conference and they're
just the the best of the best of these small Conference teams.
Once you get 13 line, you start getting teams, that may be
knocked off the 1 seed that were the two seed in their conference
tournament. That weren't the best team in
the regular season but won their conference tournament to get a
bid. So, you start getting some of
those high-end bid Steelers that start to fill out that 13 line.
So you, the likelihood of them making a run goes down a little
bit so you get higher quality conference.
Hence tournament champions on that 12 line than you do on the
13 line. Typically having said that if if
you don't get as many bits dealers and if you were to look
at my bracket, this is another thing I looked up.
If you were to look at my bracket right out and you looked
at the projected 12 versus the projected 13s and you looked at
their Ken pom, the average Ken pom ranking of the 12.
Is 70, the average Camp am ranking of the 13th is 78.
So there's not a material difference between 12 and 13 is
right now, but that's subject to change.
Depending on the results of these small conference
tournaments. If you have the, you know, like
the ones get upset, then you might get some, some 14s, some
current 14s, get pushed up to 13, just to fill in that spot
with these bid Steelers. So, you know, like as it sits
right now, I don't think that there's as a material Difference
between the 4 and the 5, but that's subject to change based
on how these small conference tournaments play up.
What's funny about the for line is and I'm also guilty of this
as well but I think a lot of people are looking at that Iona
13 seed and they got to get there but it's like with
playing, you know, being a four-seat, it's like hey here's
what you're protected seed in the tournament and your reward
is playing a team coach Rick Pitino.
It's I think it's just scaring the heck out of everybody and
and I think that's going to be like, I've already calling it.
I think that's going to be everyone's upset.
Pick is whoever's playing Iona. So I appreciate you not having
us matchup against them in your bracket.
Yeah, I mean, it's have to even look at all right, I haven't
playing Connecticut. Yeah, so good luck to
Connecticut but honestly, if I'm a, this was another question
that I was notified about on Twitter regarding good.
Bad matchups to look out for in the tournament.
And regarding the, the twelves in the 13th, if you look at the
twelves and 13s, that typically stun the fours and fives.
You generally see teams that have potent offense has
especially teams that are led by talented guards.
Usually that are that can get hot from Deep.
So three point shooters. So based on that, I think that
there's two particular teams neither of which are Iona that I
would want to avoid and I reference one of them.
Last time I came on the pot and that's Oral Roberts who already
punched their ticket. They're going to be, I think
that they're 100% locked into a 12 seed and they have two guards
and Maximus and Issac McBride that can score a ton of points.
They're good. Deep the there.
If you look at 10 p.m. or Robert says, great offensive
efficiency, there are team that I would be worried about if I
was if Indiana were to fall 2005.
Because I'm pretty sure they're locked into a 12 if they stay as
a for the 13 seed that I'd want to avoid and they might not even
come out of the Mac. You could see Kent State or
somebody else come out but if Toledo does hold serve and come
out of the Mac. They I don't Don't let me see a
head that had it pulled up. I'm searching it right now.
Toledo's offensive efficiency, adjusted offensive efficiency is
eight in the country on. Can't bomb.
Granted. There are other their defense
efficiencies 276. So Indiana should be able to put
up a boatload of points. But if you get into a shootout
with them, they have, you know, like they have four players who
can really fill it up that can shoot that can score from Deep.
They have Ray J. Dennis.
Is puts up 20 a game. There are there a dangerous
mid-major that you could get in a shootout with that you that I
personally would want to avoid. If I was Indiana especially for
an Indiana team that we don't you know, our numbers aren't bad
and our offense is not bad but we just don't shoot a lot of
Threes we don't really have an explosive offense, think we have
a good and efficient offense but when you you know you're looking
like yeah I'm looking at some of these numbers for or Roberts
like their 33rd in the country and Tempo 26 adjusted offense on
Ken Palm. That's a frightening
combination. That's a team that can play fast
and score and it's something Galen talk about his last
bracket racket podcast. You know teams to look out for
in the tournament. The last couple of years, we've
definitely seen a shift where teams who have good are adjusted
offensive numbers and good Tempo.
Primarily do better than those teams that are just great on the
defensive side now that doesn't matter.
Not that it couldn't change, but it's just history.
History. Recent history has shown that
teams that have really good adjust of offenses, are doing
better in the tournament. So I think it's a great place to
look. If you have any other, you know,
picking the bracket suggestions ideas, I will say, for me, the
one thing I've always had success with is I try and look
at like, who I look at things kind of from a larger
perspective and like going into it unless something drastically
changes. I think Kansas is a very
well-rounded team. And so I look at it, like, I'm
probably going to pick Kansas into my final four and I kind of
do that and then build the bracket around that and then I'm
more willing to take some chances on the 45s in those
turd. And those situate on in that
side of the bracket because it's like you can grab a cup.
Some early points with getting upsets correct.
The trouble is if you're wrong and then it's like you bounced,
you know, a four seed Xavier. Who goes to the final four.
That's where it kills your bracket.
It, I look at it more like all right, if I already think that
Kansas is my one C is is my person out of this region to get
to the final four. Then I'll build around it and I
can put some upsets two lines back of that because no matter
what in my mind whether Xavier is there or you know, they're
upset Jour is there. I don't have them getting by
Kansas. So I kind of build a brick walls
in my. That's how I do my brackets.
My film out. I kind of build brick walls and
it's like no matter what any team is.
This brick wall and so I kind of picked my for final four teams
and then go from there. I'm just curious, you know, how
do you how do you do that? And you have you had success
with that. I would say I've had middle and
success with my I'll end with the, you know, I'll bury the
lead that my success rate hasn't been awesome.
Although I've normally been done pretty well in my pools.
Sure. Yeah, I mean, I don't think that
there's a right and wrong strategy if you look if you dive
into the numbers a little bit and plugging my own son, Right
again on typically I release it Tuesday or Wednesday night prior
to the start of the tournament after selection Sunday.
Every year, I have an article that's titled how to win your
bracket pool, and it gives you a step-by-step instructions and
how to fill out your bracket. I have an advanced analytics
data science and machine learning based model that
actually projects the outcome of the tournament and the
likelihood it has. You'll if you You take a look at
this article again, how to win. Your bracket pool is the name of
the article and you can search how to win.
Your bracket pool 2022 2021. Go to my site, you'll be able to
find these articles and it has charts that show each team's
likelihood based on my modeling of advancing to the round of 32
advancing to the Sweet 16 advancing to the final four.
When I get also, it has the conditional probabilities of
advancing. So, I, whenever I'm filling out
my bracket, if I'm going to be a believer, my own model, Then I
fill it out based on what the model says.
So there's I do some chalky stuff earlier on, you know, like
the automatic thing is Advanced. Don't don't get cute with upsets
especially on the one through four lines.
You know, Advanced one through four to the round of 32 Advance
your one and two seeds to the Sweet. 16.
Sure looks cool. If you happen to get the eight
or seven that knocks off the one or two, right.
But like you said you risk losing More points because if
that one seed does go to the final four, then you missed out
on all the points because you had them losing in the round of
32. So it gives guidance on that and
then act that identifies you know teams most likely to make
your final four so you can kind of fill out your who's going to
make the final four and then the teams that are most likely to
Spring those eleven twelve upsets and then the last thing
it focuses on is really the the way that you distinguish self
from the first round. Some people.
From a bracket filling out perspective, like to think, oh,
I'm going to distinguish Myself by picking this Stellar upset,
that no one else picks in the 12:5 line.
But that's not how you distinguish yourself, so much as
having a good run in the seventh.
And eight, nine games, that's really how you separate yourself
from your competition. When you're filling out a
bracket is, there's eight of those every year, the 710, 89
games, and they're generally speaking about a coin flip.
So you would expect, you know, I should probably get four of
these Right is about the expectation, maybe five, but if
you can creep into that six territory then six out of eight,
right in the 710, 89 games, then you're going to have an
advantage against your opponent. So that's that's why I'd focus
on and I specifically have in my how to fill out your bracket
guidance. Like these are the games that
where there's a team that you should definitively pick
typically, out of the eight, there's usually about four that
it's like you should definitely pick this team over this other
one and the other forts honestly enough of a coin flip that you
should have legitimately We take out a coin and flip and hope you
get lucky. I love that.
Let me get you out of here on this.
Joe three. Three teams that you like for
the final four, but I'm going to put them in buckets, like, give
me one kind of chalky team. One, you know, mid team that I
would say is that, you know, three, four, five seed and then
one, you know, six seed or higher based on your current
bracket, I know there's a lot of games to play, I know it all
depends on regions and where they get bracketed.
So But, you know, give me three teams.
They're 14. And if you want another team
from those buckets by those three buckets, like a chalky,
you know, one, two, three seeds. The you know, mid tier 4, 5, 6
seeds, and then the, the dark horses, you know, give me a team
from each of those buckets to keep an eye on.
See I'm so conservative and making my predictions because my
not chalky team was going to be somebody like, Texas.
I'm like that. That's not, that's not chalky.
So, I suppose I mean, It's hard for me too.
I'm a big being an actuary being a person that has a developed
model. The advanced analytics stuff is
something or that I rely on heavily and I'm sure you're
going to know where I'm going with this before I even finish
the sentiment but it's hard for me to not have Houston, be my
chalky team, the advance their an advanced analytics darling,
you know, like they played when they played Alabama.
Yeah, they lost but they played them tough.
They there they've, you know, Like they was she didn't shed
and Sasser and just the the play that they get and and I know
Indiana fans might rub, you know.
Like they don't love hearing this with Calvin cell Sampson at
the Holland. Great coach.
Yeah, I mean like I just think that they're they're going to be
a team that's there and the final for the next the next
spot, you know, the The Dark Horse team.
If I have to go four, five, six, I might see somebody like a, I
don't know. Like, I mean, technically,
they're there on the three but any of those big east teams, I'm
gonna, I'm gonna, I'm gonna cheat and say that, any of that
meant that that cohort of Marquette Yukon Xavier thing,
any one of those teams could be on a final four, run from that
34 line. If you can count that as a mid
team, I think any of them are capable of that and then if let
me pull up my bracket here, and look at my, who jumps out at me,
as a, as a team beyond that, that I think could make run.
Hmm. Gosh.
That's tough. I'm really I hate picking teams
beyond that because all I number say they're like well it never
has barely ever happens. You let right there?
It's super memorable when it does.
So people think it happens more than it does.
But teams outside of those top four or five lines, making a run
to the final fours as few and far between but maybe somebody
like a Man, like a if I can if I can count a 6 as a just because
I said, yeah fine. But can counter six is a real
Dark Horse. Am with Buzz Williams.
I think they've gotten hot lately.
I think that they're perfectly capable of especially with the,
you know, like they just knocked off Alabama.
So clearly, they're capable of being those high quality
opponents. You know, like if they get
Frankly, if they're in Vegas, that's not too far, you know,
like they could have some people travel from am to from College
Station to Vegas and or if they get put in the Midwest and go up
to Kansas City, they've got a shot to make a run.
If you want to give another one, I feel like this is bad because
I'm going to give a fourth Big East team, but cratons got a lot
of talent. So I think that Creighton's also
capable of doing something special, if they can put it
together. So I agree.
I agree with you on a lot of those.
I also agree with you and create, I think Creighton is
going to be an interesting pick going to this because it's just
hard to place them because they had so many injuries.
It really screws up all of their metrics.
It's not going to help their seed line but they that's a team
that had they been healthy all year.
Could have been a three seed maybe but they're not and their
metrics don't show it and if you just look at them on paper, they
look like a succeed but they're not right now.
They're a, they're going to be a really interesting case.
Yep. I'm trying agree and for that
I'm not I don't even need to waste any more time.
I agree for the reasons that you mentioned.
Yep. Joe it's been a pleasure.
Having you on here this time of year, I know you got work to do
on the real job and also on the 131 sports, but I appreciate
you, put it up there, appreciate you taking some time.
I will get you out of here on this being, an Indiana podcast.
Where do you give me top for it? Top four seeds in the Big Ten.
Purdue Indiana, Northwestern, Michigan State, and just for
shits Iowa, those five teams just round robin quick.
Give me the team and where do you think they?
What's there, what are they top out in the tournament this year?
All right? So Purdue history and you know,
like they're, they're great team.
I think that they're going to end up as a 2 seed, and I think
that they lose in the sweet 16, of course you do.
Because that Under cheering for them Northwestern.
You know, I think that they to be the two seed in the Big Ten
Tournament is I still can't believe that Collins was able to
achieve that with this team. Boo, Boo, E, is wildly volatile
player. He could lead them farther than
I anticipate but I, you know, like I think that they're
probably win one and done in the tournament as a, you know, like
a round of succeed. Let's see here.
Moving moving down, Indiana, I think Indiana's perfectly
capable of losing in the first round.
I think the perfectly capable of making us Elite eight run.
So in that vein, I think that they're going to be think
they're going to come out of the round of 64 and I think they're
going to be in a barn burner against whoever they play and
and be real competitive in the round of 32.
And maybe you've you flip a coin on whether or not they Advanced
to the Sweet 16 or not. I think.
That they probably do. I don't think TJ D is Gonna Let
Them Fall anything short of that if they're in that close game.
He's he's such a grinder. And I got to see it firsthand,
unfortunately twice. And so I guess I'll say my final
pick their, as they also Indiana also wins a couple and as a four
seed in bhau's out in the sweet 16.
I didn't know. Yeah, Michigan State I'll put
them in the man. I'll put mesh, I think.
Michigan state is going to as got sweet 16 potential as well.
I think that they're gonna come in around six or seven.
I'll say this, I think if they end up as a 7, then they lose in
the set and the round of 32. If they're able to climb up to a
6, then I think they go to the Sweet 16 and knock off of one of
the three seeds. So I put that to that to that
caveat and then Dresses and G's, like you said, Iowa, the the
Fran mccaffery special. They're going to, they're going
to get stunned. Everyone of the they're going to
lose in the round of 64. So and and Fran Fran will get
attack along the way. Well, that's that's given that's
even money in Vegas. Yeah.
And We're Not Gonna Take Marilyn because you're not playing at
home. So I know you have a hard out
Joe. I really appreciate it, check
out their site, his sight 131 sports.com and thank you all for
listening until next time. This is Scott for Crimson cast
signing off.