You're listening to the Back Home Network presented by Home
Field Apparel. Welcome back to Crimson Cast,
GAIL and Clavio. Joining you going?
Solo today. It's about 5:00 on Thursday,
January 30th as we get ready for a important.
Game for Indiana Men's. Basketball as they face Purdue
at Purdue tomorrow, a game that on paper doesn't look that ideal
for IU. And it's a good time for us to
kind of sit down and walk through some of the things that
IU basketball's facing as we get ready to turn into February.
And IU with a really tough slate of games coming up.
So we're going to talk about that a little bit on the show,
going to show you some charts and some other items.
Been doing this on the the sub stack in our VIP section.
We've been giving our subscribers content like this as
we, you know, walk through some of the advanced metrics and talk
through what exactly Indiana's struggling with and how they
might be able to fix it. If you're not watching.
This if you're listening on Apple Podcasts or if you're only
listening on Spotify, I'll just let you know there is a video
component to this that's got some.
Graphs and charts and things. Like that that we're using.
So you I'm going to explain everything so you don't have to
look. But if you do, go to the YouTube
channel or go to Spotify and turn on the video so you can
watch along. I mentioned the sub stack.
Just a reminder we are on sub. Stack here at
crimsoncastcrimsoncast.substack.com and you can join a large number
of folks who are going to be regularly receiving materials
via e-mail. We've had a lot of people who
have subbed over the course of the last.
Year and a half. It's free to sign up and you get
video and the audio sent right to your inbox via e-mail.
So you don't have to get on social media and and see when
we're posting. There's also a paid subscriber
option. It's relatively cheap, I think
$5.00 a month, $50 a year. And it helps support support the
podcast that also allows us to send you some special things
that only. Go to our paying subscribers.
So check. It out go to Crimson.
Cast.substack.com we'd love to have you as part of the
community. We are a proud member of the
Back Home Network and the Back Home Network containing, of
course, Assembly Call, Doing the Work podcast, a bunch of other
shows. We're going to be live in
Bloomington this upcoming Saturday.
Not, not Saturday. The first but Saturday the 8th
at the upstairs pub as we will be there for the Michigan.
Game I'll. Be there during the game and
we'll be talking throughout the course of the game.
We did this last year for the IU Penn.
State game and. It was a lot of fun.
We got a chance to see a lot of back home network fans, lot of
people who've been listening to the podcast for a while and
we're excited about that. A big day as we partner with the
upstairs pub, a show and an event brought to you by Evan
Williams and looking forward to to seeing what they bring to the
table. They're going to have Breakfast
Club in the. Morning, so if you want.
To get an early start, they're going to start that at 9:00 AM
on Saturday, February 8th, 9:00 AM Breakfast Club, the game
happening a little bit later on. And Breakfast Club going to.
Feed right into the game. I'll be getting there probably
around 11:30 or noon and there's no cover at upstairs.
There's never a cover. 1st 200 people in the door get a free
shirt and breakfast. And again, that's going to be
courtesy of Evan Williams. And then during the game, I'll
be there talking to folks. We'll break in and talk.
During the breaks, talk a little bit what's going on with the
game. And then afterwards, we'll be
joined by the assembly call crew, at least most of them,
Ryan Phillips going to be joining.
US coach Tonsone going to be joining.
Us as well. We'll have some other folks from
the various properties. I think Bob Moats and Mike
Wiemuth are, are likely to be there as well.
And we, last year we did this and then we went and we, we had
a good time and, and hung out in town.
So hopefully you'll be able to join us in Bloomington on
February 8th at the Upstairs Pub at our event brought to you by
the Upstairs Pub and Evan Williams.
We're looking forward to it. We've also of course.
At the back. Home Network were brought to you
by Home Field Apparel, your place to go.
With the finest in college. Fashions and man did they drop a
big one. An awesome product drop today as
they test. Technically it was yesterday,
but some hockey hoodies, including an IU Script hockey
hoodie with some awesome logos on the sleeves.
A really, really exciting look. I'm looking forward to getting
my hands on one of those thirty different hoodies, I think, from
teams all across the country. Minnesota, Arizona State, a
bunch of different programs that.
Have hockey at some level, so head on over to home field
apparel.com you can use the code HOME 23 and get 15.
Percent off your first order. Again, that's home field.
Apparel.com proud sponsor. The back home network all right
let's talk about IU basketball as the Hoosiers are in a
struggle right now they've lost four of their last five and the
one win was a one point win in overtime against Ohio State and
it feels like we were just. Coming off A5.
Game-winning streak for IU and a lot of people were excited as
they sat at 13 and three and really look like they were in
pretty good position if they kept that.
Rate of winning. Up that, they might be able to
integrate themselves into the NCAA tournament picture.
They've been kind of bopping along in the bottom third of the
bubble. Picture in terms of being in the
field and right now I just wanted to show you where things
were at. All things considered, we're
going to take a look at. Bracket Matrix.
If you're not familiar with bracket matrix, I highly
recommend it. It's a great way to.
See everything? That's going on in the.
College basketball world as it's relating to the NCAA tournament
as the. Gentleman who maintains the
bracket. Matrix.
He aggregates all of the brackets.
Being done by experts across the country, not just big media
companies like ESPN and CBS. Who frankly tend to have
brackets that are not great in terms of accuracy to really
accurate brackets like Delphi Bracketology or like Andy
Bottoms bracket so. You look at this and.
You know, essentially what this does is it looks at the brackets
and it evaluates where everybody's got.
Everyone seated and then it. Goes in and essentially gives a
a sense of the people out of the field like.
How many? How many?
Teams are being considered versus.
How many teams are just not on the inside?
There is a wisdom of. Crowds kind.
Of thing that goes on with the bracket where normally by the.
Time the tournament rolls around.
We have a pretty good idea of who all the teams are going to
be, it's just the order. We're not certain about.
And there's a couple of teams in the on the edge of the bubble
that sometimes there's a surprise, but rarely are we
surprised by more than one or two teams being in the field
that that shouldn't have been or or weren't projected to be and
vice versa. So when you look at the.
Bracket matrix right now. It's a little vague, but you get
a pretty good sense of. The teams that are likely going
to be in the. Field based upon how they've
accrued wins so far. So as we look at.
Bracket and matrix pretty clear consensus that the top 4 seeds
in the tournament right now as of January 28th, which is when
this. Was last updated Auburn, Duke,
Alabama and Iowa State. And I don't think there's really
been any. Results lately that would change
that if you look. Through I mean, you know, you
have to get down right now. Michigan State and Purdue.
Michigan State right around the three seed.
Purdue in the three seed. Range, Illinois in the.
Four seed range Wisconsin in the five seed.
Range along with Michigan, Where's?
Indiana in this mix well. Right now, Indiana, according to
bracket matrix consensus. Not in the field, but they're.
Not as. Far out as you might.
Think so if you look at the teams that have been left out of
the field in. Bracket matrix.
And for those of you watching along, you can see, you know the
the. Team that would be left.
Out right now that most people that the most people have in is
Wake Forest, Wake Forest. Appears in 23 brackets.
But not a critical mass to get into the field according to
this. Combination of ratings Arizona
State. On 12 brackets, BYU on 7, Xavier
on 6 and then Indiana on five. So you know, the Hoosiers were
if you go back. A ways in the bracket.
They were projected for a while there prior to losing 4 out of
their last five. Now they've largely.
Fallen off of. The radar for many people, and
it's again, it's because of just the way they're.
Playing right now. I think what's what's optimistic
or how I would approach this if I was trying to be optimistic
about IU basketball, is that as poorly?
As Indiana's played lately, they're still not that far away
from being in the. Field and.
Really. Right now, their resume.
Is just calling out. For the kind of wins.
That help to distinguish you in terms of trying to be selected
for the field. And as much as being 14 and
seven and five and five without a whole lot of tournament
caliber. Victories is not a good place
to. Be the nice thing for Indiana
is. They have some opportunities to
pick up wins like that over the course of the next couple of
months or at least the next six weeks, which is really the time
period we're talking. About and.
That starts this Friday at Purdue.
That would be one of the best wins that you would pick up in
college basketball. Am I?
Expecting IU to win that. Game.
Not really. Purdue's been playing incredible
ball and. Indiana has not.
But that's the kind of win that you would need to pick up if
you. Were going to be competitive.
For a tournament spot and they've.
Got several of those games. On the docket the the The Road
game like if you look at it. Right now, Indiana's got.
Five Rd. games remaining, and of those 5, four of them could be
helpful and even the fifth one would at least show that you
could win on the road. Indiana's already got a nice Rd.
win. They've really got two of them.
Penn State, which was a semi away.
It's not a true Rd. game, but it's closer to a Rd.
Game than a neutral game. So they win at Penn State, they
win at Ohio State. And if you've watched or
listened to the. Podcast in the past.
You know that The tournament selection committee really
values historically, showing that you can win away from.
Home and. Win away from home against teams
that are either in the field or have a good.
Chance of being in the field. Penn.
State's pretty iffy right now. Ohio State.
I think is still in the field at this point.
You know they're going. To kind of hover around.
That, but they've they've done some good things, including
winning at Purdue. And so even though Ohio State
right now four and five in conference I, I still generally.
Think that their chances. Of making it into the.
Field you know could be fairly decent if you look at the.
Bracket matrix. They are kind of on the fringes
of things right now, but they are still technically in the.
Field. They were one of the I think.
They were maybe the last. Buy or the last?
Team that didn't have to play in the playing round in the most
recent bracket matrix. So that'll be something to.
Keep an eye on but Indiana's got an opportunity here like they.
They they get to they get to go to Purdue as they get to go to
Purdue. Like that's something that that
would be ideal, but with this, that's a game.
That if you win that. Much like Ohio State did Well,
now you've really put yourself in a good.
Spot with the committee. They get to follow that up.
With traveling to Wisconsin again, a House of.
Horrors historically for Indiana at.
Least over the last 2025 years. But a win that would absolutely
put Indiana back into the. Field probably overnight they.
Get to go to Michigan. State same thing again.
Michigan State leading the league.
Right now. Very difficult place to play.
Indiana's one there. You know, they, they that weird
Archie Miller win that they had up at Michigan.
State, They beat Michigan State at home last year, and then they
get a three-game home stand before traveling to Washington,
which that's not a tournament. Caliber team but that would
still be a decent Rd. win. That's.
A top 100 Ken Palm team and then at Oregon, who is not?
Invincible as we've seen Illinois.
Went in and smacked. Oregon around.
We saw Oregon lose at Minnesota. Oregon.
The blooms come off the roads a little bit there, but that's
still a tournament caliber team. That would be a tournament
caliber Rd. win. And even the home games for
Indiana, you get Michigan at home the day that.
We're going to be at upstairs on February 8th.
You get a UCLA who's, you know, still in the tournament field, I
think at. This point the kind of.
Borderline Purdue at home, Penn State at.
Home Ohio State at home. All of those.
Games. Are going to be helpful in some.
Way if Indiana can win them and my.
Point in all of this is as as off the rails as it feels like
this season has gotten to some people realistically.
Indiana is still in the mix for an at large bid, and this is not
me like pumping sunshine at IU. This is just the reality, like.
The the fact that Indiana. Has those two wins away from
home really does make a big. Difference.
And this is not like. Last year when?
Indiana just really had a. A.
A.
If you look at what Indiana's resume was.
At this time last year, the only win that they had.
On the 29th or the 30th of January.
That was notable, you know. In terms of being away?
From home was the neutral site. Win against.
Louisville or the win at Michigan, neither of whom were
tournament teams, and so that those were barely notable games.
Now, Indiana did win at. Ohio State, that was February
6th of last year. That was also not a tournament
caliber Ohio State team. You know Indiana.
The big problem last. Year was that they just.
Didn't have anything close to a road win.
What I'm interested in and and what I'm excited about is that
at least. Indiana has done some work that
have. Put them in position where they
could compete for a tournament bid.
The problem now is that they're going to have to keep pace with
other teams that also have similar calibers of wins.
Now you're getting into. A A a resume measuring contest.
For lack of a better term, in terms of can Indiana do enough?
Work to not just keep. Pace with where they're at right
now, which is probably. Going to entail finishing at
least 10 and 10 in conference, going five and five the.
Rest of the way, but also can they outpace the other?
Teams that are fighting for. Those at large bids, that's
going to be the big question mark as we move into.
The last month and a. Half of the season essentially,
so we'll keep. An eye on that.
As we look at. Some of the the metrics and some
of the numbers I I want to call some of these up and talk about
them. We've as I.
Mentioned we've been talking about some of the.
Various aspects of I US play over the course of the last
month. On our.
VIP channel over on Substack. So I'm going to kind of bring
that into the mix here for you all as well.
So I'm going to call this up on the video file or video screen.
We're going to start with Bartorvic.
And the and the T. Rank system, which I really
enjoy. I I'm a big fan of Ken.
Pom as well. But I I really do think that
Torvic at this point may have a slightly more reliable rating.
System in terms of how? Good teams actually are so up on
the screen right now, you can see Indiana ranked. 67th and
Torvic Which? Is not good.
They're 62nd and Kenpom and I think.
They're 71st in Haslam. Metrics which is another site
that I really enjoy using. They all these sites essentially
do similar things. They take the statistics.
From the games. And the the statistics that
teams have accrued. And they essentially.
Aggregate them. Try to evaluate statistically
who the best teams. Are and then they rank.
Everybody against everybody else.
They also look at various. Performative metrics that teams
are. Are are getting out of their.
Games and so we're going to talk about some of those items.
Here so if you look at IU right? Now 67th in the country in
Torbic. And you know, the offense has
receded, unfortunately. And the you know there it's at.
70th right? Now, in terms of offensive
efficiency, adjusted for opponent defense has also
receded a bit from what we saw earlier on in the year.
It's 60. 8th in the country so. That equates that to about 67th
in terms of the average of those rankings.
You you look at the the four factors which we've talked.
About on this show before. The the things that contribute
the most to victories based upon statistical analysis.
Indiana kind of a mid team in terms of effective.
Field goal percentage, which you know they're they're a. 139th in
effective field goal percentage offensively.
And they're allowing. 49.7%. Effective field goal percentage,
so they're a. 128th defensively. IU about.
Middle of the pack in the country and turning the ball
over. They turn the ball over on 17.2%
of possessions. They're not turning opponents.
Over which is a thread that we've talked about a lot with.
This team, they're just not playing that kind of defense
where they're forcing a lot of turnovers I us offensive
rebounding was doing. Very well, it's falling back a
little bit, but it's still 90. 4th in the country in terms of
offensive rebounding percentage and they're doing an OK job.
Of keeping opponents off the offensive boards, they're 100.
And 26th in that category and then free throw rate Indiana 100
and 43rd in the country. So again, kind of in the middle
and then, you know, one thing that Indiana has done really
well defensively is they're not sending their opponents to the
free throw line. Very much.
And that's. Kind of the positive trade off
from that turnover percentage number.
You're you're not forcing turnovers, but you're not
picking up fouls so you're not sending the other team to the
free throw line that often. Shooting wise, Indiana's 3 point
shooting was doing pretty well and it's falling way off.
It's almost like Luke Goody soaked up everybody's 3 point
shooting ability and and and everybody else is is missing it
now. It feels like it's how it's gone
cause 'cause Goody has definitely gotten better from
three. You know, 2 point percentage.
Wise Indiana's doing. OK, they're top third.
In the country at 53%, but that's not really good enough.
When you take as few. Threes as Indiana.
Does. And that's the statistic that
I'm most worried about Indiana. 333rd in the country and
three-point rate. You look at what?
Indiana's done against opponents and.
You know what's really unfortunate?
Is how Indiana A has fallen off against quality opponents from
an efficiency. Perspective and B why you know
the fact? That Indiana's fallen off in
their last 10 games in terms of their efficiency.
So I mentioned earlier like. Indiana, 70th in the country and
offensive efficiency, 68th in the country in defensive
efficiency. So those are both top quartile.
In college basketball, roughly, but against quality opponents.
Indiana is 90th in offensive efficiency.
And 185th in defensive efficiency, so they're not
scoring as effectively. And they are not defending.
Well against top level competition.
So if you look at like, and we're talking about quality
opponents, it's top 50 teams. So yeah, you you look.
At the Numbers, Indiana. Has played eight games against
top 50 opponents. There are two and.
Six in those games and. Their effective field goal
percentage is 40. 6.7%, which is 155th in the country.
They're rebounding on the offensive.
Boards really well in those games, but.
They are not. Shooting threes very well
against those teams at all and you know, 31. .6% from 3.
And their free, their three. Point rate in those games is a
200. And 48th and so you look at IU
against quality opponents. And they're.
Not a whole lot better. Like if you have to kind of
delete some of the the smaller the teams that haven't played as
many games against top 50 opponents.
But like, South Carolina is about the same as Indiana in
terms of overall efficiency against top 50 opponents.
And you look at the best teams in the country, you know, these
are the teams that. We just talked about in terms of
seeding, Auburn is best in the. Country against top 50 opponents
Florida. Who's the top five team is right
up there. Duke, Houston, Iowa State,
Alabama, Tennessee, Marquette. That's your top 8?
In the in the last 10 games, Indiana has receded, you know,
and it certainly is playing not. Nearly as well as they were
earlier. So in the last 10 games,
Indiana's offensive efficiency is 96th in the country.
And their defensive efficiency is 80. 6th in the country so not
as bad. As their overall performance.
Against top 50 teams. But still not as good.
As their performance throughout the course of the.
Season, and for those of you who are.
Watching along. We've got the the.
Game store score. Trend, which is essentially.
An internal metric by Torvic that measures in terms of how.
Well, or how poorly a team. Played in the game.
And you can see there's a very. Steady downward trend for
Indiana. They started off relatively.
Strong in terms of game score and they've had several.
Games here that have fallen below that line and that's LED.
Their overall performance to drop.
Quite a bit. In terms of those games.
When you look at IU. One of the metrics you want to
keep an eye on in terms of their tournament.
Possibilities. Is what's called wins against.
Bubble and and wins against bubble is essentially a
statistic. That measures when you.
Win a game or lose a game. How does your overall resume?
Based on all the games. You've won or lost.
How does it look in comparison to other?
Teams in the in the country and. Especially other teams on the
bubble. And so it's a little hard to.
See on the screen here, but I'm going to try to zoom in a.
Little bit if you look at IU like IU had accrued.
Some. You know, they they've gotten
decent in. Terms of the fact that by the
time they won that. UCL it is the USC game, sorry.
On the 8th of January, their wins.
Against. Bubble was 1.4 which is a pretty
good spot to be in. It dropped off by.
Essentially half of its value. When they lost to Iowa and then
lost to Illinois, largely because of the margins in those
games, but then they jumped back.
Winning on the road at Ohio State jumped it back.
To 1.4. But now losing at.
Northwestern losing at home to. Maryland their wins against
bubble is back to .5. So this is a.
Metric you want to keep an eye on.
They've got a. Bunch of opportunities to win
games that will help their case in terms of their bubbles.
Resume and and you know, for those of you who are watching
along like you can see like the games that have the biggest
impact are the Purdue game at on the road, the Wisconsin game on
the road, the Michigan State game on the road, the Oregon
game on the. Road and then the Purdue.
Game at home and and then the Michigan game certainly would be
a positive factor there too. The reason?
I would note this. Is like, you know, obviously
Indiana is not. Favored in most of those games,
but they are favored at home against Penn.
State they're favored at Washington, and they're favored.
At home against Ohio State, those would help.
Some, but Indiana's going to have to pick up some.
Of the more difficult. Games, the games they're not
favored to win in, that's going to make a big difference in
terms of how Indiana's overall resume ends up.
Looking so these are. Some things to keep in mind.
Just from a pure numbers perspective as we dive further
into this schedule. And we see how Indiana.
Fares over these last. 10 games of the regular.
Season. You know, the other thing I
wanted to note as far as the overall statistics were
concerned is how Indiana offensively has been doing.
We one of the things we. Talked about a lot in looking at
basketball statistics is adjusted efficiency.
You've heard me mention it a bunch.
In this podcast. The reason adjusted efficiency
is so important. Is because.
Scoring like Indiana, for instance, in the Maryland game,
they scored about a point and 1/4 per.
Possession and that was really good, but it was even better
because if you factor in how. Good Maryland's defense
generally. Is it was actually worth about
1.35 points per possession, so that that's how it.
Works. It's like you score a point and
a quarter against Maryland. That's.
Great, but you're actually doing better if you adjust that for
how good Maryland normally plays.
Defense. The problem for Indiana in that
game was that their defense let them down.
Maryland. Hits 12 with 24 from 3.
Maryland scores a point and 1/4 per possession themselves.
Which is. You know, not that abnormal
given that Indiana's defense has been pretty mid.
Level, but that was if you look at adjusted deficiencies.
That was actually Indiana's. Worst adjusted.
Defensive performance of the entire.
Season. Up to that point, it had been
the game at. Nebraska, but now.
It's the game at home versus Maryland, and it came at exactly
the wrong time 'cause. That would have been a win that.
That would have really helped Indiana with a bunch of
different things and so something to keep in.
Mind as we move forward. Is, you know, Indiana has gotten
themselves to a point. Where they really just have to
start over. Performing.
In a lot of these. Games and.
You know, you look at. The teams that they've got.
The rest of the way they all do. Certain things really well and.
You know, you look at, you know the the.
Big 10 Conference overall. If you look at their overall
efficiencies, you know Purdue is, you know they're a.
Pretty good defensive team. They're 24th in the country, but
they're 7th in offensive. Division.
That's a really good offensive team.
In terms of what they've done so far this season, you know,
Indiana has got. To play really good.
Defense In that game, Wisconsin's actually even more
extreme they're. Almost as good as Purdue
offensively, but. Wisconsin's kind of.
Mid of the pack or middle of the?
Pack in terms of their defensive efficiency and so in that game
Indiana's really got a. Score while.
Also trying to defend Wisconsin. You know on the flip side, UCL
as offense is not. That great, but their defense is
pretty good, 55th in offensive efficiency and 20th in
defensive. Efficiency.
So this is where Indiana's at at this point.
And. Just taking it from that
perspective. Season's not.
Over still a lot of. Opportunities to do some things
if you're Indiana. The the tournament's still.
Right there and you're not. That far outside of the bubble.
But you're outside of the bubble right now, and you've almost
with the loss. To Maryland, you've kind of
thrown away. What would have been a really?
Nice resume win against the team that probably isn't as good as
their record indicates. Or as good as their.
Overall numbers indicate. Although I will give Maryland
credit, they. Are getting better.
They they blew. Out Illinois at Illinois and
then they they came home and they beat Wisconsin at home.
Yesterday, I guess it was. Wednesday night.
So you look at it. And you know Indiana right now.
5:00 and 5:00 right now their overall.
Projection in terms of the Big 10 tournament is not good.
Indiana right now projected to go 8 and 12 in conference, which
I think would land them 13th in the conference.
And there's only going to be 15. Teams invited out of the. 18 to
the Big 10 Tournament. So Indiana.
Talking about like a first. Day selection and having to win
five games in five days in order.
To to get to the. The title game and win it and
get an automatic bid and. You're kind of in this weird.
Spot right now with Indiana, where the projection is eight
wins and. We talked about the three.
Games that Indiana's favored. For, you know, Penn State.
And Ohio State at home. And then at Washington.
You're in the mix with a bunch of other teams now.
I think Indiana's lucky right now in that there are three
teams that are clearly worse than them in terms of projected
record. Nebraska is projected to go 7
and 13 in conference. Minnesota's projected.
To go 6 and 14 and Washington. Projected to go 4 and. 16.
I feel pretty good even with the.
Loss to Nebraska that Indiana. Suffered that Indiana will
likely finish ahead of those three teams.
Since Indiana's already got two wins in hand on Minnesota and
they beat them. And they don't.
Have to play them again so they got the.
Tiebreaker there and they have. Three games in hand.
Against Nebraska, at least three.
Wins in hand that they. Did lose to Nebraska, so they
would lose that. Tiebreaker, but now you're.
Talking about the potential of a big tiebreaker with a bunch of.
Different teams involved, which might help Indiana in that mix.
But you look. At the teams, Indiana might be
fighting for seating, positioning and.
You know. Penn State's going to be in that
mix. They're projected.
To go 8 and 12, Northwestern's going to be in that mix at 8:00
and 12:00. UCL as projected at 11. 9:00
But. You know they're also projected.
To win against Indiana. So if you can map that game now
you've given yourself. A boost in terms of if you can
tie. UCLA in the standings, you're
going to have the advantage in terms of tiebreaker, so.
That's from a purely. Like numbers, perspective what
Indiana is facing. And it's going to be.
Interesting to see how they. Fare now one of the.
Things I think is worth noting now and I'm going to turn the
screen back on. Here to showcase this for you
all. To going to Kenpom.
And we could do this with Torvic too.
But I want to give both of these sites some love.
One of the things. That's notable once you get to
about the halfway point of the conference season.
Is this idea of conference only? Statistics.
So basically taking out the the things that are, you know, the,
the games you played. Against non conference.
Opponents and just focusing on. What Indiana's doing in
conference or what all the. Teams are doing in.
Conference and So what? We see with that and you can see
it on screen here, you know if you look at.
Offensive efficiency in conference, Michigan State has
been the best. By far, they've also played one
of the weakest. Schedules.
So is Indiana, but. We'll leave that.
Aside for the moment, Purdue's been second best in offensive
efficiency. Wisconsin's been third.
Was Michigan's been 4th? Iowa's been 5th, Indiana's 10th.
Which is obviously not as. Bad as it could be, but that's
very middle of the pack. That's almost smack.
Dab in the middle. Indiana's effective field goal
percentage in conference has been awful, 48.4%.
That's 17th in the conference. Only Washington shooting worse
in terms of effective field goal percentage.
And shockingly. It's because Indiana's two point
field goal percentage which really saved them from like a
really embarrassing season. Last year because it.
Compensated for the lack of threes.
Indiana's worst in the conference right now in two
point field goal percentage at 48.1%.
And you know, they're 13th in the country in the conference in
in three-point field goal percentage, they're only 14th in
the conference and free throw percentage.
So the offense is just not clicking?
Where they've really. Benefited is that they haven't
turned the ball over and they've been getting a lot of offensive
rebounds and they've been getting to the free throw line a
decent amount. So that's kept possessions
alive. But Indiana's just not shooting
the ball well right now in conference games, and that's a
trend. I don't know if Indiana's going
to be. Able to fix as they go through
the rest. Of the season, but that's if
you're going to fix things, that's where it's got to start.
Defensively, one of the reasons why Michigan.
State's leading the conference is they've been the best team in
terms of conference defensive efficiency.
They're first in the conference. They're they're first in the
conference in an effective field goal percentage.
If you look at Indiana, they're 12th.
In both of those categories, they're 12th in.
Defensive efficiency in conference games.
And they're 12th in effective. Field goal percentage allowed in
conference games. And the biggest issues for IU is
they're not. They're not stealing the ball,
so they're not ending possessions early for the
opposition and they're not forcing turnovers as we
mentioned earlier, they're allowing.
Opponents to shoot at, basically.
A 36% clip from three and they're allowing opponents to
shoot. 5850. 3.8%. From 2.
So the defense. Just really not getting the job
done. And I mean you look.
At those two aggregate numbers, Indiana 10th in.
Overall. Offensive efficiency in the
conference. And Indiana, 12th in overall.
Defensive conference efficiency? It's no.
Wonder that they are. Not only in the middle.
Of the Big 10. In terms of the standings right
now, but are projected to only go 8 and. 12 These are all
fixable items. But they're running out of time
to fix them, and I think that's really a a concern.
And and you look at. Where Indiana's going?
Over the course of. These next few games, they're
going to have to play. You know Purdue, who's second in
both? Offensive and defensive
efficiency. They're going to have to play
Wisconsin, who's third in offense and 5th in.
Defense, they got to play. Michigan, who's 4th in offense
and 7th in defense. These are all teams that in both
areas. Are ahead of Indiana and that's
going to be a problem. So if there's going to be
recovery and if there's going to be a turn around in.
Terms of the trajectory of. Indiana season it's.
Really going to have to start with one of those two.
I don't know if they can do both, but one of those two areas
is. Going to have to change.
If you are going to see. Indiana coming away with with
anything. Worthwhile over the course of
the last six weeks of the season.
One other thing I wanted to note, and I think it's, it's
really interesting. It's a nice mapping.
Of things I'm going to show Eric.
Haslam's page here haslametrics.com and.
This is going to be the hardest. One to try to translate.
To the folks that are listening as opposed to watching.
But if you go to Haslam. Metrics and you look at Indiana.
You can see a. A bunch of different statistics
in terms of how they're playing. What you're seeing on screen
right now is Indiana's offensive efficiency ranking compared to
the rest of the country. If you go day by day and what?
You see is like Indiana started off the season and by by around
Thanksgiving it stabilized at about the 25th.
Or so 25th to. 30th team in the country in terms of offensive.
Efficiency that starts to nosedive.
Immediately after they get done. Playing the two Big 10 games at
the beginning of. December and.
Collapses to the point that you know by the.
Time they play. Iowa in mid January their.
Offensive efficiency ranking had dropped.
All the way to about 110th in the country.
Now they've rebounded. Some of these.
Last few games and that's been interesting to see, you know,
because I was really concerned about the fact that they kept.
Trending down, they have bounced.
Back up and as we mentioned. They had a really good offensive
game against Maryland, they had a a decent offensive game,
relatively speaking, against Northwestern, and they also had
a decent offensive game against Ohio State.
Actually a relatively good one. So they have rebounded.
From what was their worst offensive game of the year
against. Iowa.
But I do wonder, you know, how does that?
Trend line go. Do they keep?
Coming up, they're going to. Have to to some degree.
If Indiana wants a shot at the. NCAA Tournament.
Defensively, the chart. Again, it shows Indiana peaks
around 25th and in around Thanksgiving.
Drops off a Cliff. At the end of.
November And that was really the effect of Maui.
And after coming back and putting in a good defensive
performance in that game against Minnesota.
Drop right back off a. Cliff again, and you know, right
down Indiana's defensive efficiency.
Wallet got. Slightly better in the middle.
Of December is go, excuse me, in the middle of.
January has dropped back down into the 80 ish range on Haslam
and. You know, it's funny because,
like the defensive. Efficiency starting to go down.
Just as the offensive efficiency is coming up.
So that is a concern. Because you want both of those
things to be moving up. You don't want one to fall off
while the other one gets better because then it just kind of
looks like you're plugging 1 hole in the boat and letting
water in the other hole in the boat so.
We'll see. I mean I I.
Think for IU at this. Point, You know, one of the
things that stands out. And as Haslam does a good job of
figuring this out, he's got a A. A note for a like there's a
statistic called consistency. And it's essentially how, how
consistently are you? Are you playing Indiana's not
very consistent like Indiana is very.
And we you don't need statistics to tell you that.
Indiana bounces all over the place in terms of overall
performance and, and that's a real concern and.
It's why I won't. Be shocked if Indiana goes out
and wins one of these games. Against a tough opponent and
then loses. Game that they should win.
That's just kind of the. Way that the season's.
Gone so far so. Anyway, that's that's.
Kind of an overall look at the team numbers.
We're not. Diving into individual numbers
tonight but looking at. Team numbers seeing where
Indiana's AT and this is what confronts them as they go into
Mackey. And they try to put themselves
in a position where perhaps they, you know, could get into
the NCAA tournament. Who knows what happens as far as
all this goes, but it's going. To be interesting to see.
As Indiana. Tries to salvage their season.
And at. This point they sit.
Outside the bubble, They've got all of the tools at their
disposal to get inside the bubble.
The question is, can this team start to row the?
Same way can the. Coaching staff do what they need
to be doing to get Indiana into a position where they can get
back into the NCAA Tournament, which really I think is worth
noting was the minimum expectation for this season.
But at this point. Anything beyond that is.
Probably too much to ask for at the very least.
If you get Indiana. Into the tournament you've got.
Obviously some talented players, maybe something happens there.
But that's where things are. At right now, with Indiana
certainly on the outside looking in as of January 30th.
But with a lot of opportunities to change.
That as we move forward. Anyway, that'll wrap it up.
For this episode of Crimson Cast.
I'll be back with more with Scott, probably over this.
Weekend, we'll recap what happened.
In Purdue, we'll preview what. Happens in the.
Wisconsin game and we'll. Talk about some other items as
well. Thanks for joining us here on
Crimson Cast. Thank you to our presenting
sponsor, Home Field Apparel. Thanks to Evan.
Williams for sponsoring us on. February 8th at the upstairs
pub. We'll see you folks there catch
you. On the flip side, bring back the
bison. Stay never daunted.
So long, everybody.