1 00:00:08,680 --> 00:00:11,880 You're listening to the Back Home Network presented by Home 2 00:00:11,880 --> 00:00:22,720 Field Apparel. Welcome back to Crimson Cast, 3 00:00:22,720 --> 00:00:24,360 GAIL and Clavio. Joining you going? 4 00:00:24,360 --> 00:00:28,720 Solo today. It's about 5:00 on Thursday, 5 00:00:28,720 --> 00:00:33,320 January 30th as we get ready for a important. 6 00:00:33,320 --> 00:00:36,800 Game for Indiana Men's. Basketball as they face Purdue 7 00:00:36,800 --> 00:00:42,640 at Purdue tomorrow, a game that on paper doesn't look that ideal 8 00:00:42,640 --> 00:00:47,120 for IU. And it's a good time for us to 9 00:00:47,120 --> 00:00:50,160 kind of sit down and walk through some of the things that 10 00:00:50,160 --> 00:00:54,720 IU basketball's facing as we get ready to turn into February. 11 00:00:54,880 --> 00:00:57,640 And IU with a really tough slate of games coming up. 12 00:00:58,200 --> 00:01:00,000 So we're going to talk about that a little bit on the show, 13 00:01:00,000 --> 00:01:02,440 going to show you some charts and some other items. 14 00:01:02,800 --> 00:01:07,120 Been doing this on the the sub stack in our VIP section. 15 00:01:07,120 --> 00:01:11,880 We've been giving our subscribers content like this as 16 00:01:11,880 --> 00:01:15,800 we, you know, walk through some of the advanced metrics and talk 17 00:01:15,800 --> 00:01:18,320 through what exactly Indiana's struggling with and how they 18 00:01:18,320 --> 00:01:21,440 might be able to fix it. If you're not watching. 19 00:01:21,440 --> 00:01:24,280 This if you're listening on Apple Podcasts or if you're only 20 00:01:24,280 --> 00:01:26,720 listening on Spotify, I'll just let you know there is a video 21 00:01:26,720 --> 00:01:29,280 component to this that's got some. 22 00:01:29,680 --> 00:01:32,880 Graphs and charts and things. Like that that we're using. 23 00:01:32,880 --> 00:01:35,560 So you I'm going to explain everything so you don't have to 24 00:01:35,560 --> 00:01:39,480 look. But if you do, go to the YouTube 25 00:01:39,480 --> 00:01:41,920 channel or go to Spotify and turn on the video so you can 26 00:01:41,920 --> 00:01:44,800 watch along. I mentioned the sub stack. 27 00:01:44,800 --> 00:01:47,200 Just a reminder we are on sub. Stack here at 28 00:01:47,200 --> 00:01:53,360 crimsoncastcrimsoncast.substack.com and you can join a large number 29 00:01:53,360 --> 00:02:00,600 of folks who are going to be regularly receiving materials 30 00:02:00,600 --> 00:02:02,800 via e-mail. We've had a lot of people who 31 00:02:02,800 --> 00:02:05,440 have subbed over the course of the last. 32 00:02:05,440 --> 00:02:09,600 Year and a half. It's free to sign up and you get 33 00:02:09,720 --> 00:02:13,600 video and the audio sent right to your inbox via e-mail. 34 00:02:13,600 --> 00:02:16,440 So you don't have to get on social media and and see when 35 00:02:16,440 --> 00:02:19,280 we're posting. There's also a paid subscriber 36 00:02:19,280 --> 00:02:21,360 option. It's relatively cheap, I think 37 00:02:21,360 --> 00:02:26,280 $5.00 a month, $50 a year. And it helps support support the 38 00:02:26,280 --> 00:02:30,000 podcast that also allows us to send you some special things 39 00:02:30,000 --> 00:02:31,640 that only. Go to our paying subscribers. 40 00:02:31,640 --> 00:02:32,680 So check. It out go to Crimson. 41 00:02:32,680 --> 00:02:35,760 Cast.substack.com we'd love to have you as part of the 42 00:02:35,760 --> 00:02:40,120 community. We are a proud member of the 43 00:02:40,120 --> 00:02:42,840 Back Home Network and the Back Home Network containing, of 44 00:02:42,840 --> 00:02:47,360 course, Assembly Call, Doing the Work podcast, a bunch of other 45 00:02:47,360 --> 00:02:50,600 shows. We're going to be live in 46 00:02:50,600 --> 00:02:53,200 Bloomington this upcoming Saturday. 47 00:02:53,200 --> 00:02:56,240 Not, not Saturday. The first but Saturday the 8th 48 00:02:56,720 --> 00:03:01,280 at the upstairs pub as we will be there for the Michigan. 49 00:03:01,280 --> 00:03:04,320 Game I'll. Be there during the game and 50 00:03:04,320 --> 00:03:06,400 we'll be talking throughout the course of the game. 51 00:03:06,800 --> 00:03:09,000 We did this last year for the IU Penn. 52 00:03:09,000 --> 00:03:10,920 State game and. It was a lot of fun. 53 00:03:10,920 --> 00:03:15,080 We got a chance to see a lot of back home network fans, lot of 54 00:03:15,080 --> 00:03:18,160 people who've been listening to the podcast for a while and 55 00:03:18,160 --> 00:03:21,680 we're excited about that. A big day as we partner with the 56 00:03:21,680 --> 00:03:25,960 upstairs pub, a show and an event brought to you by Evan 57 00:03:25,960 --> 00:03:29,880 Williams and looking forward to to seeing what they bring to the 58 00:03:29,880 --> 00:03:31,640 table. They're going to have Breakfast 59 00:03:31,640 --> 00:03:33,240 Club in the. Morning, so if you want. 60 00:03:33,240 --> 00:03:36,120 To get an early start, they're going to start that at 9:00 AM 61 00:03:36,120 --> 00:03:40,480 on Saturday, February 8th, 9:00 AM Breakfast Club, the game 62 00:03:40,760 --> 00:03:44,320 happening a little bit later on. And Breakfast Club going to. 63 00:03:44,320 --> 00:03:46,920 Feed right into the game. I'll be getting there probably 64 00:03:46,920 --> 00:03:51,520 around 11:30 or noon and there's no cover at upstairs. 65 00:03:51,520 --> 00:03:55,360 There's never a cover. 1st 200 people in the door get a free 66 00:03:55,360 --> 00:03:57,760 shirt and breakfast. And again, that's going to be 67 00:03:57,760 --> 00:04:01,000 courtesy of Evan Williams. And then during the game, I'll 68 00:04:01,000 --> 00:04:04,760 be there talking to folks. We'll break in and talk. 69 00:04:04,760 --> 00:04:06,720 During the breaks, talk a little bit what's going on with the 70 00:04:06,720 --> 00:04:08,880 game. And then afterwards, we'll be 71 00:04:08,880 --> 00:04:12,760 joined by the assembly call crew, at least most of them, 72 00:04:13,360 --> 00:04:14,800 Ryan Phillips going to be joining. 73 00:04:14,800 --> 00:04:16,360 US coach Tonsone going to be joining. 74 00:04:16,360 --> 00:04:18,800 Us as well. We'll have some other folks from 75 00:04:18,800 --> 00:04:20,880 the various properties. I think Bob Moats and Mike 76 00:04:20,880 --> 00:04:23,160 Wiemuth are, are likely to be there as well. 77 00:04:23,480 --> 00:04:27,000 And we, last year we did this and then we went and we, we had 78 00:04:27,000 --> 00:04:28,880 a good time and, and hung out in town. 79 00:04:29,080 --> 00:04:31,840 So hopefully you'll be able to join us in Bloomington on 80 00:04:31,840 --> 00:04:36,240 February 8th at the Upstairs Pub at our event brought to you by 81 00:04:36,280 --> 00:04:38,040 the Upstairs Pub and Evan Williams. 82 00:04:38,040 --> 00:04:41,200 We're looking forward to it. We've also of course. 83 00:04:41,560 --> 00:04:42,960 At the back. Home Network were brought to you 84 00:04:42,960 --> 00:04:44,360 by Home Field Apparel, your place to go. 85 00:04:44,360 --> 00:04:47,240 With the finest in college. Fashions and man did they drop a 86 00:04:47,240 --> 00:04:52,200 big one. An awesome product drop today as 87 00:04:52,200 --> 00:04:54,800 they test. Technically it was yesterday, 88 00:04:55,160 --> 00:04:59,080 but some hockey hoodies, including an IU Script hockey 89 00:04:59,080 --> 00:05:03,040 hoodie with some awesome logos on the sleeves. 90 00:05:03,040 --> 00:05:05,200 A really, really exciting look. I'm looking forward to getting 91 00:05:05,200 --> 00:05:08,680 my hands on one of those thirty different hoodies, I think, from 92 00:05:08,680 --> 00:05:12,640 teams all across the country. Minnesota, Arizona State, a 93 00:05:12,640 --> 00:05:13,920 bunch of different programs that. 94 00:05:13,920 --> 00:05:17,120 Have hockey at some level, so head on over to home field 95 00:05:17,120 --> 00:05:20,360 apparel.com you can use the code HOME 23 and get 15. 96 00:05:20,360 --> 00:05:23,600 Percent off your first order. Again, that's home field. 97 00:05:23,600 --> 00:05:26,680 Apparel.com proud sponsor. The back home network all right 98 00:05:26,680 --> 00:05:31,560 let's talk about IU basketball as the Hoosiers are in a 99 00:05:31,560 --> 00:05:34,800 struggle right now they've lost four of their last five and the 100 00:05:34,800 --> 00:05:38,400 one win was a one point win in overtime against Ohio State and 101 00:05:38,400 --> 00:05:39,920 it feels like we were just. Coming off A5. 102 00:05:39,920 --> 00:05:42,640 Game-winning streak for IU and a lot of people were excited as 103 00:05:42,640 --> 00:05:45,840 they sat at 13 and three and really look like they were in 104 00:05:45,840 --> 00:05:48,880 pretty good position if they kept that. 105 00:05:49,240 --> 00:05:52,080 Rate of winning. Up that, they might be able to 106 00:05:52,080 --> 00:05:55,600 integrate themselves into the NCAA tournament picture. 107 00:05:55,880 --> 00:05:59,960 They've been kind of bopping along in the bottom third of the 108 00:05:59,960 --> 00:06:02,040 bubble. Picture in terms of being in the 109 00:06:02,040 --> 00:06:06,840 field and right now I just wanted to show you where things 110 00:06:06,840 --> 00:06:08,400 were at. All things considered, we're 111 00:06:08,400 --> 00:06:10,680 going to take a look at. Bracket Matrix. 112 00:06:11,040 --> 00:06:13,240 If you're not familiar with bracket matrix, I highly 113 00:06:13,240 --> 00:06:14,480 recommend it. It's a great way to. 114 00:06:14,480 --> 00:06:17,640 See everything? That's going on in the. 115 00:06:18,200 --> 00:06:21,240 College basketball world as it's relating to the NCAA tournament 116 00:06:21,760 --> 00:06:23,800 as the. Gentleman who maintains the 117 00:06:23,800 --> 00:06:24,840 bracket. Matrix. 118 00:06:25,960 --> 00:06:28,000 He aggregates all of the brackets. 119 00:06:28,000 --> 00:06:31,680 Being done by experts across the country, not just big media 120 00:06:31,680 --> 00:06:34,560 companies like ESPN and CBS. Who frankly tend to have 121 00:06:34,560 --> 00:06:39,080 brackets that are not great in terms of accuracy to really 122 00:06:39,080 --> 00:06:42,040 accurate brackets like Delphi Bracketology or like Andy 123 00:06:42,040 --> 00:06:45,400 Bottoms bracket so. You look at this and. 124 00:06:45,680 --> 00:06:48,440 You know, essentially what this does is it looks at the brackets 125 00:06:48,800 --> 00:06:51,560 and it evaluates where everybody's got. 126 00:06:51,720 --> 00:06:56,560 Everyone seated and then it. Goes in and essentially gives a 127 00:06:56,560 --> 00:06:58,760 a sense of the people out of the field like. 128 00:06:58,760 --> 00:06:59,800 How many? How many? 129 00:06:59,800 --> 00:07:01,920 Teams are being considered versus. 130 00:07:01,920 --> 00:07:04,920 How many teams are just not on the inside? 131 00:07:05,200 --> 00:07:07,080 There is a wisdom of. Crowds kind. 132 00:07:07,080 --> 00:07:11,480 Of thing that goes on with the bracket where normally by the. 133 00:07:11,480 --> 00:07:13,400 Time the tournament rolls around. 134 00:07:13,800 --> 00:07:16,120 We have a pretty good idea of who all the teams are going to 135 00:07:16,120 --> 00:07:18,000 be, it's just the order. We're not certain about. 136 00:07:18,000 --> 00:07:20,360 And there's a couple of teams in the on the edge of the bubble 137 00:07:20,360 --> 00:07:23,680 that sometimes there's a surprise, but rarely are we 138 00:07:23,680 --> 00:07:26,400 surprised by more than one or two teams being in the field 139 00:07:26,400 --> 00:07:29,320 that that shouldn't have been or or weren't projected to be and 140 00:07:29,320 --> 00:07:33,000 vice versa. So when you look at the. 141 00:07:33,000 --> 00:07:36,040 Bracket matrix right now. It's a little vague, but you get 142 00:07:36,040 --> 00:07:38,160 a pretty good sense of. The teams that are likely going 143 00:07:38,160 --> 00:07:39,920 to be in the. Field based upon how they've 144 00:07:40,160 --> 00:07:43,240 accrued wins so far. So as we look at. 145 00:07:43,240 --> 00:07:47,240 Bracket and matrix pretty clear consensus that the top 4 seeds 146 00:07:47,240 --> 00:07:50,720 in the tournament right now as of January 28th, which is when 147 00:07:50,720 --> 00:07:53,080 this. Was last updated Auburn, Duke, 148 00:07:53,080 --> 00:07:55,520 Alabama and Iowa State. And I don't think there's really 149 00:07:55,520 --> 00:07:58,040 been any. Results lately that would change 150 00:07:58,040 --> 00:08:00,480 that if you look. Through I mean, you know, you 151 00:08:00,480 --> 00:08:03,960 have to get down right now. Michigan State and Purdue. 152 00:08:04,240 --> 00:08:06,320 Michigan State right around the three seed. 153 00:08:06,320 --> 00:08:08,800 Purdue in the three seed. Range, Illinois in the. 154 00:08:08,800 --> 00:08:12,040 Four seed range Wisconsin in the five seed. 155 00:08:12,040 --> 00:08:13,480 Range along with Michigan, Where's? 156 00:08:13,480 --> 00:08:17,360 Indiana in this mix well. Right now, Indiana, according to 157 00:08:17,360 --> 00:08:21,200 bracket matrix consensus. Not in the field, but they're. 158 00:08:21,200 --> 00:08:23,440 Not as. Far out as you might. 159 00:08:23,440 --> 00:08:25,760 Think so if you look at the teams that have been left out of 160 00:08:25,760 --> 00:08:27,200 the field in. Bracket matrix. 161 00:08:27,200 --> 00:08:30,080 And for those of you watching along, you can see, you know the 162 00:08:30,120 --> 00:08:31,280 the. Team that would be left. 163 00:08:31,280 --> 00:08:36,600 Out right now that most people that the most people have in is 164 00:08:36,600 --> 00:08:39,880 Wake Forest, Wake Forest. Appears in 23 brackets. 165 00:08:39,880 --> 00:08:43,240 But not a critical mass to get into the field according to 166 00:08:43,720 --> 00:08:46,440 this. Combination of ratings Arizona 167 00:08:46,440 --> 00:08:51,400 State. On 12 brackets, BYU on 7, Xavier 168 00:08:51,400 --> 00:08:55,840 on 6 and then Indiana on five. So you know, the Hoosiers were 169 00:08:56,120 --> 00:08:57,920 if you go back. A ways in the bracket. 170 00:08:58,760 --> 00:09:02,320 They were projected for a while there prior to losing 4 out of 171 00:09:02,320 --> 00:09:04,720 their last five. Now they've largely. 172 00:09:04,720 --> 00:09:08,080 Fallen off of. The radar for many people, and 173 00:09:08,080 --> 00:09:10,240 it's again, it's because of just the way they're. 174 00:09:10,240 --> 00:09:14,600 Playing right now. I think what's what's optimistic 175 00:09:14,600 --> 00:09:17,000 or how I would approach this if I was trying to be optimistic 176 00:09:17,000 --> 00:09:20,480 about IU basketball, is that as poorly? 177 00:09:20,480 --> 00:09:23,960 As Indiana's played lately, they're still not that far away 178 00:09:24,240 --> 00:09:26,240 from being in the. Field and. 179 00:09:26,240 --> 00:09:27,800 Really. Right now, their resume. 180 00:09:27,840 --> 00:09:30,240 Is just calling out. For the kind of wins. 181 00:09:30,240 --> 00:09:33,720 That help to distinguish you in terms of trying to be selected 182 00:09:33,720 --> 00:09:38,400 for the field. And as much as being 14 and 183 00:09:38,400 --> 00:09:40,920 seven and five and five without a whole lot of tournament 184 00:09:40,920 --> 00:09:43,640 caliber. Victories is not a good place 185 00:09:43,640 --> 00:09:44,960 to. Be the nice thing for Indiana 186 00:09:44,960 --> 00:09:47,680 is. They have some opportunities to 187 00:09:47,680 --> 00:09:50,640 pick up wins like that over the course of the next couple of 188 00:09:50,640 --> 00:09:54,080 months or at least the next six weeks, which is really the time 189 00:09:54,080 --> 00:09:56,480 period we're talking. About and. 190 00:09:56,800 --> 00:09:58,960 That starts this Friday at Purdue. 191 00:09:59,160 --> 00:10:01,560 That would be one of the best wins that you would pick up in 192 00:10:01,560 --> 00:10:02,800 college basketball. Am I? 193 00:10:02,800 --> 00:10:04,200 Expecting IU to win that. Game. 194 00:10:04,200 --> 00:10:06,920 Not really. Purdue's been playing incredible 195 00:10:06,920 --> 00:10:08,200 ball and. Indiana has not. 196 00:10:08,440 --> 00:10:11,080 But that's the kind of win that you would need to pick up if 197 00:10:11,080 --> 00:10:12,200 you. Were going to be competitive. 198 00:10:12,200 --> 00:10:14,080 For a tournament spot and they've. 199 00:10:14,080 --> 00:10:17,160 Got several of those games. On the docket the the The Road 200 00:10:17,160 --> 00:10:19,760 game like if you look at it. Right now, Indiana's got. 201 00:10:19,760 --> 00:10:24,880 Five Rd. games remaining, and of those 5, four of them could be 202 00:10:24,880 --> 00:10:27,680 helpful and even the fifth one would at least show that you 203 00:10:27,680 --> 00:10:30,520 could win on the road. Indiana's already got a nice Rd. 204 00:10:30,520 --> 00:10:32,000 win. They've really got two of them. 205 00:10:32,640 --> 00:10:35,080 Penn State, which was a semi away. 206 00:10:35,200 --> 00:10:37,680 It's not a true Rd. game, but it's closer to a Rd. 207 00:10:37,680 --> 00:10:41,040 Game than a neutral game. So they win at Penn State, they 208 00:10:41,040 --> 00:10:43,600 win at Ohio State. And if you've watched or 209 00:10:43,600 --> 00:10:45,200 listened to the. Podcast in the past. 210 00:10:45,200 --> 00:10:48,520 You know that The tournament selection committee really 211 00:10:48,520 --> 00:10:51,440 values historically, showing that you can win away from. 212 00:10:51,440 --> 00:10:54,760 Home and. Win away from home against teams 213 00:10:54,760 --> 00:10:57,240 that are either in the field or have a good. 214 00:10:57,240 --> 00:10:58,800 Chance of being in the field. Penn. 215 00:10:58,800 --> 00:11:01,560 State's pretty iffy right now. Ohio State. 216 00:11:01,560 --> 00:11:03,840 I think is still in the field at this point. 217 00:11:04,760 --> 00:11:06,480 You know they're going. To kind of hover around. 218 00:11:06,480 --> 00:11:08,520 That, but they've they've done some good things, including 219 00:11:08,520 --> 00:11:11,840 winning at Purdue. And so even though Ohio State 220 00:11:11,840 --> 00:11:15,160 right now four and five in conference I, I still generally. 221 00:11:15,680 --> 00:11:17,920 Think that their chances. Of making it into the. 222 00:11:17,920 --> 00:11:21,520 Field you know could be fairly decent if you look at the. 223 00:11:21,520 --> 00:11:24,120 Bracket matrix. They are kind of on the fringes 224 00:11:24,120 --> 00:11:26,520 of things right now, but they are still technically in the. 225 00:11:26,520 --> 00:11:28,920 Field. They were one of the I think. 226 00:11:28,920 --> 00:11:31,920 They were maybe the last. Buy or the last? 227 00:11:31,920 --> 00:11:35,680 Team that didn't have to play in the playing round in the most 228 00:11:35,680 --> 00:11:38,000 recent bracket matrix. So that'll be something to. 229 00:11:38,000 --> 00:11:41,040 Keep an eye on but Indiana's got an opportunity here like they. 230 00:11:41,120 --> 00:11:44,120 They they get to they get to go to Purdue as they get to go to 231 00:11:44,120 --> 00:11:45,520 Purdue. Like that's something that that 232 00:11:45,520 --> 00:11:48,080 would be ideal, but with this, that's a game. 233 00:11:48,080 --> 00:11:51,920 That if you win that. Much like Ohio State did Well, 234 00:11:51,920 --> 00:11:53,880 now you've really put yourself in a good. 235 00:11:53,880 --> 00:11:56,360 Spot with the committee. They get to follow that up. 236 00:11:56,360 --> 00:11:59,080 With traveling to Wisconsin again, a House of. 237 00:11:59,080 --> 00:12:00,880 Horrors historically for Indiana at. 238 00:12:00,880 --> 00:12:06,760 Least over the last 2025 years. But a win that would absolutely 239 00:12:07,240 --> 00:12:10,000 put Indiana back into the. Field probably overnight they. 240 00:12:10,000 --> 00:12:12,360 Get to go to Michigan. State same thing again. 241 00:12:12,520 --> 00:12:14,080 Michigan State leading the league. 242 00:12:14,080 --> 00:12:16,560 Right now. Very difficult place to play. 243 00:12:16,640 --> 00:12:19,600 Indiana's one there. You know, they, they that weird 244 00:12:19,600 --> 00:12:21,440 Archie Miller win that they had up at Michigan. 245 00:12:21,440 --> 00:12:24,400 State, They beat Michigan State at home last year, and then they 246 00:12:24,400 --> 00:12:28,480 get a three-game home stand before traveling to Washington, 247 00:12:28,520 --> 00:12:31,360 which that's not a tournament. Caliber team but that would 248 00:12:31,360 --> 00:12:32,720 still be a decent Rd. win. That's. 249 00:12:32,720 --> 00:12:36,920 A top 100 Ken Palm team and then at Oregon, who is not? 250 00:12:36,920 --> 00:12:38,360 Invincible as we've seen Illinois. 251 00:12:38,360 --> 00:12:40,920 Went in and smacked. Oregon around. 252 00:12:40,920 --> 00:12:43,800 We saw Oregon lose at Minnesota. Oregon. 253 00:12:43,800 --> 00:12:46,040 The blooms come off the roads a little bit there, but that's 254 00:12:46,040 --> 00:12:48,680 still a tournament caliber team. That would be a tournament 255 00:12:48,680 --> 00:12:50,960 caliber Rd. win. And even the home games for 256 00:12:50,960 --> 00:12:52,880 Indiana, you get Michigan at home the day that. 257 00:12:52,880 --> 00:12:54,760 We're going to be at upstairs on February 8th. 258 00:12:55,040 --> 00:12:57,960 You get a UCLA who's, you know, still in the tournament field, I 259 00:12:57,960 --> 00:12:59,040 think at. This point the kind of. 260 00:12:59,040 --> 00:13:01,320 Borderline Purdue at home, Penn State at. 261 00:13:01,320 --> 00:13:04,120 Home Ohio State at home. All of those. 262 00:13:04,120 --> 00:13:07,000 Games. Are going to be helpful in some. 263 00:13:07,000 --> 00:13:10,480 Way if Indiana can win them and my. 264 00:13:10,480 --> 00:13:15,360 Point in all of this is as as off the rails as it feels like 265 00:13:15,360 --> 00:13:19,760 this season has gotten to some people realistically. 266 00:13:19,760 --> 00:13:24,920 Indiana is still in the mix for an at large bid, and this is not 267 00:13:24,920 --> 00:13:29,560 me like pumping sunshine at IU. This is just the reality, like. 268 00:13:29,880 --> 00:13:33,680 The the fact that Indiana. Has those two wins away from 269 00:13:33,680 --> 00:13:36,800 home really does make a big. Difference. 270 00:13:36,800 --> 00:13:39,240 And this is not like. Last year when? 271 00:13:39,240 --> 00:13:40,720 Indiana just really had a. A. 272 00:13:40,840 --> 00:13:41,040 A. A. 273 00:13:42,760 --> 00:13:44,400 If you look at what Indiana's resume was. 274 00:13:44,400 --> 00:13:49,280 At this time last year, the only win that they had. 275 00:13:49,360 --> 00:13:52,720 On the 29th or the 30th of January. 276 00:13:53,080 --> 00:13:56,120 That was notable, you know. In terms of being away? 277 00:13:56,120 --> 00:13:59,760 From home was the neutral site. Win against. 278 00:13:59,760 --> 00:14:02,200 Louisville or the win at Michigan, neither of whom were 279 00:14:02,200 --> 00:14:05,120 tournament teams, and so that those were barely notable games. 280 00:14:05,520 --> 00:14:07,840 Now, Indiana did win at. Ohio State, that was February 281 00:14:07,840 --> 00:14:10,480 6th of last year. That was also not a tournament 282 00:14:10,480 --> 00:14:13,560 caliber Ohio State team. You know Indiana. 283 00:14:14,480 --> 00:14:16,320 The big problem last. Year was that they just. 284 00:14:16,320 --> 00:14:19,280 Didn't have anything close to a road win. 285 00:14:19,960 --> 00:14:22,720 What I'm interested in and and what I'm excited about is that 286 00:14:22,720 --> 00:14:24,800 at least. Indiana has done some work that 287 00:14:24,800 --> 00:14:26,560 have. Put them in position where they 288 00:14:26,560 --> 00:14:29,840 could compete for a tournament bid. 289 00:14:30,040 --> 00:14:32,400 The problem now is that they're going to have to keep pace with 290 00:14:32,400 --> 00:14:36,320 other teams that also have similar calibers of wins. 291 00:14:36,640 --> 00:14:40,280 Now you're getting into. A A a resume measuring contest. 292 00:14:40,280 --> 00:14:44,200 For lack of a better term, in terms of can Indiana do enough? 293 00:14:44,200 --> 00:14:46,800 Work to not just keep. Pace with where they're at right 294 00:14:46,800 --> 00:14:49,480 now, which is probably. Going to entail finishing at 295 00:14:49,480 --> 00:14:51,800 least 10 and 10 in conference, going five and five the. 296 00:14:51,800 --> 00:14:54,800 Rest of the way, but also can they outpace the other? 297 00:14:54,800 --> 00:14:58,720 Teams that are fighting for. Those at large bids, that's 298 00:14:58,720 --> 00:15:00,720 going to be the big question mark as we move into. 299 00:15:00,960 --> 00:15:03,520 The last month and a. Half of the season essentially, 300 00:15:03,520 --> 00:15:05,280 so we'll keep. An eye on that. 301 00:15:06,680 --> 00:15:09,840 As we look at. Some of the the metrics and some 302 00:15:09,840 --> 00:15:12,840 of the numbers I I want to call some of these up and talk about 303 00:15:12,840 --> 00:15:14,120 them. We've as I. 304 00:15:14,120 --> 00:15:16,520 Mentioned we've been talking about some of the. 305 00:15:16,520 --> 00:15:20,360 Various aspects of I US play over the course of the last 306 00:15:20,360 --> 00:15:21,240 month. On our. 307 00:15:21,240 --> 00:15:25,760 VIP channel over on Substack. So I'm going to kind of bring 308 00:15:25,760 --> 00:15:27,880 that into the mix here for you all as well. 309 00:15:27,880 --> 00:15:30,760 So I'm going to call this up on the video file or video screen. 310 00:15:30,760 --> 00:15:32,360 We're going to start with Bartorvic. 311 00:15:32,920 --> 00:15:35,560 And the and the T. Rank system, which I really 312 00:15:35,560 --> 00:15:37,640 enjoy. I I'm a big fan of Ken. 313 00:15:37,640 --> 00:15:39,640 Pom as well. But I I really do think that 314 00:15:40,000 --> 00:15:44,800 Torvic at this point may have a slightly more reliable rating. 315 00:15:44,800 --> 00:15:47,840 System in terms of how? Good teams actually are so up on 316 00:15:47,840 --> 00:15:51,200 the screen right now, you can see Indiana ranked. 67th and 317 00:15:51,200 --> 00:15:52,400 Torvic Which? Is not good. 318 00:15:52,520 --> 00:15:54,920 They're 62nd and Kenpom and I think. 319 00:15:54,920 --> 00:15:58,640 They're 71st in Haslam. Metrics which is another site 320 00:15:58,640 --> 00:16:01,880 that I really enjoy using. They all these sites essentially 321 00:16:01,880 --> 00:16:04,440 do similar things. They take the statistics. 322 00:16:04,440 --> 00:16:07,680 From the games. And the the statistics that 323 00:16:07,680 --> 00:16:10,080 teams have accrued. And they essentially. 324 00:16:10,080 --> 00:16:12,920 Aggregate them. Try to evaluate statistically 325 00:16:12,920 --> 00:16:14,480 who the best teams. Are and then they rank. 326 00:16:14,480 --> 00:16:16,080 Everybody against everybody else. 327 00:16:16,280 --> 00:16:20,320 They also look at various. Performative metrics that teams 328 00:16:20,320 --> 00:16:23,120 are. Are are getting out of their. 329 00:16:23,120 --> 00:16:25,320 Games and so we're going to talk about some of those items. 330 00:16:25,680 --> 00:16:28,960 Here so if you look at IU right? Now 67th in the country in 331 00:16:28,960 --> 00:16:32,640 Torbic. And you know, the offense has 332 00:16:32,640 --> 00:16:37,440 receded, unfortunately. And the you know there it's at. 333 00:16:37,440 --> 00:16:40,160 70th right? Now, in terms of offensive 334 00:16:40,280 --> 00:16:44,360 efficiency, adjusted for opponent defense has also 335 00:16:44,360 --> 00:16:46,720 receded a bit from what we saw earlier on in the year. 336 00:16:46,720 --> 00:16:50,680 It's 60. 8th in the country so. That equates that to about 67th 337 00:16:50,680 --> 00:16:52,880 in terms of the average of those rankings. 338 00:16:53,800 --> 00:16:56,120 You you look at the the four factors which we've talked. 339 00:16:56,120 --> 00:16:59,480 About on this show before. The the things that contribute 340 00:16:59,480 --> 00:17:02,920 the most to victories based upon statistical analysis. 341 00:17:03,320 --> 00:17:06,200 Indiana kind of a mid team in terms of effective. 342 00:17:06,200 --> 00:17:10,400 Field goal percentage, which you know they're they're a. 139th in 343 00:17:10,400 --> 00:17:12,440 effective field goal percentage offensively. 344 00:17:12,880 --> 00:17:18,280 And they're allowing. 49.7%. Effective field goal percentage, 345 00:17:18,280 --> 00:17:22,880 so they're a. 128th defensively. IU about. 346 00:17:22,880 --> 00:17:25,240 Middle of the pack in the country and turning the ball 347 00:17:25,240 --> 00:17:27,760 over. They turn the ball over on 17.2% 348 00:17:27,760 --> 00:17:30,320 of possessions. They're not turning opponents. 349 00:17:30,320 --> 00:17:32,440 Over which is a thread that we've talked about a lot with. 350 00:17:32,440 --> 00:17:35,280 This team, they're just not playing that kind of defense 351 00:17:35,280 --> 00:17:38,400 where they're forcing a lot of turnovers I us offensive 352 00:17:38,400 --> 00:17:41,120 rebounding was doing. Very well, it's falling back a 353 00:17:41,120 --> 00:17:43,840 little bit, but it's still 90. 4th in the country in terms of 354 00:17:43,840 --> 00:17:46,920 offensive rebounding percentage and they're doing an OK job. 355 00:17:46,920 --> 00:17:50,080 Of keeping opponents off the offensive boards, they're 100. 356 00:17:50,080 --> 00:17:54,960 And 26th in that category and then free throw rate Indiana 100 357 00:17:54,960 --> 00:17:58,120 and 43rd in the country. So again, kind of in the middle 358 00:17:58,600 --> 00:18:00,760 and then, you know, one thing that Indiana has done really 359 00:18:00,760 --> 00:18:03,000 well defensively is they're not sending their opponents to the 360 00:18:03,000 --> 00:18:04,280 free throw line. Very much. 361 00:18:04,640 --> 00:18:07,680 And that's. Kind of the positive trade off 362 00:18:07,840 --> 00:18:09,720 from that turnover percentage number. 363 00:18:10,120 --> 00:18:12,360 You're you're not forcing turnovers, but you're not 364 00:18:12,360 --> 00:18:14,600 picking up fouls so you're not sending the other team to the 365 00:18:14,600 --> 00:18:17,920 free throw line that often. Shooting wise, Indiana's 3 point 366 00:18:17,920 --> 00:18:20,520 shooting was doing pretty well and it's falling way off. 367 00:18:21,360 --> 00:18:24,480 It's almost like Luke Goody soaked up everybody's 3 point 368 00:18:24,480 --> 00:18:28,000 shooting ability and and and everybody else is is missing it 369 00:18:28,000 --> 00:18:29,400 now. It feels like it's how it's gone 370 00:18:29,400 --> 00:18:31,360 cause 'cause Goody has definitely gotten better from 371 00:18:31,360 --> 00:18:33,960 three. You know, 2 point percentage. 372 00:18:33,960 --> 00:18:36,880 Wise Indiana's doing. OK, they're top third. 373 00:18:37,200 --> 00:18:40,920 In the country at 53%, but that's not really good enough. 374 00:18:40,920 --> 00:18:42,760 When you take as few. Threes as Indiana. 375 00:18:42,760 --> 00:18:45,200 Does. And that's the statistic that 376 00:18:45,200 --> 00:18:49,080 I'm most worried about Indiana. 333rd in the country and 377 00:18:49,080 --> 00:18:51,360 three-point rate. You look at what? 378 00:18:51,360 --> 00:18:54,440 Indiana's done against opponents and. 379 00:18:54,960 --> 00:18:57,240 You know what's really unfortunate? 380 00:18:57,640 --> 00:19:03,360 Is how Indiana A has fallen off against quality opponents from 381 00:19:03,360 --> 00:19:08,640 an efficiency. Perspective and B why you know 382 00:19:08,880 --> 00:19:10,440 the fact? That Indiana's fallen off in 383 00:19:10,440 --> 00:19:12,640 their last 10 games in terms of their efficiency. 384 00:19:12,640 --> 00:19:15,160 So I mentioned earlier like. Indiana, 70th in the country and 385 00:19:15,160 --> 00:19:19,040 offensive efficiency, 68th in the country in defensive 386 00:19:19,040 --> 00:19:21,880 efficiency. So those are both top quartile. 387 00:19:22,200 --> 00:19:26,640 In college basketball, roughly, but against quality opponents. 388 00:19:27,240 --> 00:19:31,520 Indiana is 90th in offensive efficiency. 389 00:19:31,800 --> 00:19:34,720 And 185th in defensive efficiency, so they're not 390 00:19:34,720 --> 00:19:38,200 scoring as effectively. And they are not defending. 391 00:19:38,200 --> 00:19:39,880 Well against top level competition. 392 00:19:39,880 --> 00:19:42,720 So if you look at like, and we're talking about quality 393 00:19:42,720 --> 00:19:45,880 opponents, it's top 50 teams. So yeah, you you look. 394 00:19:45,880 --> 00:19:49,120 At the Numbers, Indiana. Has played eight games against 395 00:19:49,120 --> 00:19:50,720 top 50 opponents. There are two and. 396 00:19:50,720 --> 00:19:54,400 Six in those games and. Their effective field goal 397 00:19:54,400 --> 00:19:58,200 percentage is 40. 6.7%, which is 155th in the country. 398 00:19:59,120 --> 00:20:00,720 They're rebounding on the offensive. 399 00:20:00,720 --> 00:20:03,240 Boards really well in those games, but. 400 00:20:03,240 --> 00:20:05,520 They are not. Shooting threes very well 401 00:20:05,520 --> 00:20:10,840 against those teams at all and you know, 31. .6% from 3. 402 00:20:11,200 --> 00:20:13,840 And their free, their three. Point rate in those games is a 403 00:20:13,840 --> 00:20:17,840 200. And 48th and so you look at IU 404 00:20:17,960 --> 00:20:20,280 against quality opponents. And they're. 405 00:20:20,280 --> 00:20:22,480 Not a whole lot better. Like if you have to kind of 406 00:20:22,920 --> 00:20:26,240 delete some of the the smaller the teams that haven't played as 407 00:20:26,240 --> 00:20:28,720 many games against top 50 opponents. 408 00:20:29,280 --> 00:20:32,440 But like, South Carolina is about the same as Indiana in 409 00:20:32,440 --> 00:20:36,360 terms of overall efficiency against top 50 opponents. 410 00:20:36,960 --> 00:20:40,400 And you look at the best teams in the country, you know, these 411 00:20:40,400 --> 00:20:42,960 are the teams that. We just talked about in terms of 412 00:20:42,960 --> 00:20:46,440 seeding, Auburn is best in the. Country against top 50 opponents 413 00:20:46,440 --> 00:20:48,400 Florida. Who's the top five team is right 414 00:20:48,400 --> 00:20:50,840 up there. Duke, Houston, Iowa State, 415 00:20:50,840 --> 00:20:54,160 Alabama, Tennessee, Marquette. That's your top 8? 416 00:20:55,120 --> 00:20:59,480 In the in the last 10 games, Indiana has receded, you know, 417 00:20:59,480 --> 00:21:02,560 and it certainly is playing not. Nearly as well as they were 418 00:21:02,560 --> 00:21:04,720 earlier. So in the last 10 games, 419 00:21:04,720 --> 00:21:07,920 Indiana's offensive efficiency is 96th in the country. 420 00:21:08,640 --> 00:21:12,640 And their defensive efficiency is 80. 6th in the country so not 421 00:21:12,640 --> 00:21:14,600 as bad. As their overall performance. 422 00:21:14,600 --> 00:21:17,200 Against top 50 teams. But still not as good. 423 00:21:17,200 --> 00:21:18,800 As their performance throughout the course of the. 424 00:21:18,800 --> 00:21:19,920 Season, and for those of you who are. 425 00:21:19,920 --> 00:21:22,360 Watching along. We've got the the. 426 00:21:22,360 --> 00:21:24,680 Game store score. Trend, which is essentially. 427 00:21:24,680 --> 00:21:30,120 An internal metric by Torvic that measures in terms of how. 428 00:21:30,120 --> 00:21:32,080 Well, or how poorly a team. Played in the game. 429 00:21:32,440 --> 00:21:35,720 And you can see there's a very. Steady downward trend for 430 00:21:35,720 --> 00:21:37,840 Indiana. They started off relatively. 431 00:21:37,840 --> 00:21:41,440 Strong in terms of game score and they've had several. 432 00:21:41,440 --> 00:21:44,560 Games here that have fallen below that line and that's LED. 433 00:21:44,560 --> 00:21:47,000 Their overall performance to drop. 434 00:21:47,320 --> 00:21:49,520 Quite a bit. In terms of those games. 435 00:21:49,960 --> 00:21:51,720 When you look at IU. One of the metrics you want to 436 00:21:51,720 --> 00:21:54,040 keep an eye on in terms of their tournament. 437 00:21:55,000 --> 00:21:58,000 Possibilities. Is what's called wins against. 438 00:21:58,000 --> 00:22:00,520 Bubble and and wins against bubble is essentially a 439 00:22:00,520 --> 00:22:02,840 statistic. That measures when you. 440 00:22:02,840 --> 00:22:06,320 Win a game or lose a game. How does your overall resume? 441 00:22:06,360 --> 00:22:08,240 Based on all the games. You've won or lost. 442 00:22:09,000 --> 00:22:12,560 How does it look in comparison to other? 443 00:22:12,560 --> 00:22:16,760 Teams in the in the country and. Especially other teams on the 444 00:22:16,760 --> 00:22:18,880 bubble. And so it's a little hard to. 445 00:22:18,880 --> 00:22:20,640 See on the screen here, but I'm going to try to zoom in a. 446 00:22:20,640 --> 00:22:23,880 Little bit if you look at IU like IU had accrued. 447 00:22:23,960 --> 00:22:25,920 Some. You know, they they've gotten 448 00:22:25,920 --> 00:22:27,520 decent in. Terms of the fact that by the 449 00:22:27,520 --> 00:22:30,600 time they won that. UCL it is the USC game, sorry. 450 00:22:30,840 --> 00:22:33,040 On the 8th of January, their wins. 451 00:22:33,040 --> 00:22:36,160 Against. Bubble was 1.4 which is a pretty 452 00:22:36,160 --> 00:22:39,200 good spot to be in. It dropped off by. 453 00:22:39,600 --> 00:22:42,400 Essentially half of its value. When they lost to Iowa and then 454 00:22:42,400 --> 00:22:44,880 lost to Illinois, largely because of the margins in those 455 00:22:44,880 --> 00:22:46,280 games, but then they jumped back. 456 00:22:46,640 --> 00:22:48,920 Winning on the road at Ohio State jumped it back. 457 00:22:48,920 --> 00:22:51,400 To 1.4. But now losing at. 458 00:22:51,400 --> 00:22:54,480 Northwestern losing at home to. Maryland their wins against 459 00:22:54,480 --> 00:22:57,280 bubble is back to .5. So this is a. 460 00:22:57,280 --> 00:22:58,360 Metric you want to keep an eye on. 461 00:22:58,360 --> 00:23:01,880 They've got a. Bunch of opportunities to win 462 00:23:01,880 --> 00:23:06,000 games that will help their case in terms of their bubbles. 463 00:23:06,480 --> 00:23:09,360 Resume and and you know, for those of you who are watching 464 00:23:09,360 --> 00:23:11,440 along like you can see like the games that have the biggest 465 00:23:11,440 --> 00:23:14,240 impact are the Purdue game at on the road, the Wisconsin game on 466 00:23:14,240 --> 00:23:17,400 the road, the Michigan State game on the road, the Oregon 467 00:23:17,400 --> 00:23:19,280 game on the. Road and then the Purdue. 468 00:23:19,280 --> 00:23:22,680 Game at home and and then the Michigan game certainly would be 469 00:23:22,680 --> 00:23:24,960 a positive factor there too. The reason? 470 00:23:24,960 --> 00:23:26,840 I would note this. Is like, you know, obviously 471 00:23:26,840 --> 00:23:28,600 Indiana is not. Favored in most of those games, 472 00:23:28,600 --> 00:23:30,960 but they are favored at home against Penn. 473 00:23:30,960 --> 00:23:33,320 State they're favored at Washington, and they're favored. 474 00:23:33,680 --> 00:23:36,080 At home against Ohio State, those would help. 475 00:23:36,080 --> 00:23:38,680 Some, but Indiana's going to have to pick up some. 476 00:23:38,760 --> 00:23:41,120 Of the more difficult. Games, the games they're not 477 00:23:41,120 --> 00:23:44,280 favored to win in, that's going to make a big difference in 478 00:23:44,280 --> 00:23:46,440 terms of how Indiana's overall resume ends up. 479 00:23:46,440 --> 00:23:50,240 Looking so these are. Some things to keep in mind. 480 00:23:50,560 --> 00:23:53,240 Just from a pure numbers perspective as we dive further 481 00:23:53,440 --> 00:23:55,360 into this schedule. And we see how Indiana. 482 00:23:55,360 --> 00:23:57,600 Fares over these last. 10 games of the regular. 483 00:23:57,600 --> 00:24:01,320 Season. You know, the other thing I 484 00:24:01,320 --> 00:24:03,680 wanted to note as far as the overall statistics were 485 00:24:03,680 --> 00:24:08,680 concerned is how Indiana offensively has been doing. 486 00:24:09,720 --> 00:24:13,440 We one of the things we. Talked about a lot in looking at 487 00:24:13,440 --> 00:24:16,720 basketball statistics is adjusted efficiency. 488 00:24:16,720 --> 00:24:18,080 You've heard me mention it a bunch. 489 00:24:18,080 --> 00:24:22,000 In this podcast. The reason adjusted efficiency 490 00:24:22,000 --> 00:24:24,680 is so important. Is because. 491 00:24:25,400 --> 00:24:28,440 Scoring like Indiana, for instance, in the Maryland game, 492 00:24:28,760 --> 00:24:31,960 they scored about a point and 1/4 per. 493 00:24:31,960 --> 00:24:36,800 Possession and that was really good, but it was even better 494 00:24:37,680 --> 00:24:40,120 because if you factor in how. Good Maryland's defense 495 00:24:40,120 --> 00:24:43,680 generally. Is it was actually worth about 496 00:24:43,680 --> 00:24:46,800 1.35 points per possession, so that that's how it. 497 00:24:46,800 --> 00:24:47,880 Works. It's like you score a point and 498 00:24:47,880 --> 00:24:49,160 a quarter against Maryland. That's. 499 00:24:49,160 --> 00:24:52,600 Great, but you're actually doing better if you adjust that for 500 00:24:52,600 --> 00:24:54,560 how good Maryland normally plays. 501 00:24:54,560 --> 00:24:56,480 Defense. The problem for Indiana in that 502 00:24:56,480 --> 00:24:58,680 game was that their defense let them down. 503 00:24:59,440 --> 00:25:01,400 Maryland. Hits 12 with 24 from 3. 504 00:25:01,520 --> 00:25:04,560 Maryland scores a point and 1/4 per possession themselves. 505 00:25:04,880 --> 00:25:07,800 Which is. You know, not that abnormal 506 00:25:07,800 --> 00:25:09,800 given that Indiana's defense has been pretty mid. 507 00:25:09,800 --> 00:25:13,480 Level, but that was if you look at adjusted deficiencies. 508 00:25:13,640 --> 00:25:15,760 That was actually Indiana's. Worst adjusted. 509 00:25:15,760 --> 00:25:17,600 Defensive performance of the entire. 510 00:25:17,600 --> 00:25:19,600 Season. Up to that point, it had been 511 00:25:19,600 --> 00:25:22,160 the game at. Nebraska, but now. 512 00:25:22,160 --> 00:25:25,000 It's the game at home versus Maryland, and it came at exactly 513 00:25:25,000 --> 00:25:27,200 the wrong time 'cause. That would have been a win that. 514 00:25:27,280 --> 00:25:29,960 That would have really helped Indiana with a bunch of 515 00:25:29,960 --> 00:25:32,280 different things and so something to keep in. 516 00:25:32,280 --> 00:25:36,040 Mind as we move forward. Is, you know, Indiana has gotten 517 00:25:36,040 --> 00:25:38,120 themselves to a point. Where they really just have to 518 00:25:38,120 --> 00:25:39,200 start over. Performing. 519 00:25:39,200 --> 00:25:41,640 In a lot of these. Games and. 520 00:25:42,080 --> 00:25:43,720 You know, you look at. The teams that they've got. 521 00:25:43,880 --> 00:25:48,240 The rest of the way they all do. Certain things really well and. 522 00:25:49,000 --> 00:25:50,400 You know, you look at, you know the the. 523 00:25:50,400 --> 00:25:53,880 Big 10 Conference overall. If you look at their overall 524 00:25:53,880 --> 00:25:57,520 efficiencies, you know Purdue is, you know they're a. 525 00:25:57,520 --> 00:26:00,080 Pretty good defensive team. They're 24th in the country, but 526 00:26:00,080 --> 00:26:01,440 they're 7th in offensive. Division. 527 00:26:01,440 --> 00:26:03,160 That's a really good offensive team. 528 00:26:03,480 --> 00:26:06,680 In terms of what they've done so far this season, you know, 529 00:26:06,680 --> 00:26:08,680 Indiana has got. To play really good. 530 00:26:08,680 --> 00:26:11,840 Defense In that game, Wisconsin's actually even more 531 00:26:11,840 --> 00:26:14,160 extreme they're. Almost as good as Purdue 532 00:26:14,880 --> 00:26:17,760 offensively, but. Wisconsin's kind of. 533 00:26:18,360 --> 00:26:20,280 Mid of the pack or middle of the? 534 00:26:20,280 --> 00:26:24,160 Pack in terms of their defensive efficiency and so in that game 535 00:26:24,160 --> 00:26:25,840 Indiana's really got a. Score while. 536 00:26:25,840 --> 00:26:30,640 Also trying to defend Wisconsin. You know on the flip side, UCL 537 00:26:30,640 --> 00:26:32,720 as offense is not. That great, but their defense is 538 00:26:32,720 --> 00:26:35,440 pretty good, 55th in offensive efficiency and 20th in 539 00:26:35,440 --> 00:26:36,560 defensive. Efficiency. 540 00:26:37,080 --> 00:26:39,600 So this is where Indiana's at at this point. 541 00:26:40,480 --> 00:26:43,240 And. Just taking it from that 542 00:26:43,240 --> 00:26:44,680 perspective. Season's not. 543 00:26:44,680 --> 00:26:47,200 Over still a lot of. Opportunities to do some things 544 00:26:47,200 --> 00:26:49,600 if you're Indiana. The the tournament's still. 545 00:26:49,600 --> 00:26:52,160 Right there and you're not. That far outside of the bubble. 546 00:26:52,640 --> 00:26:55,440 But you're outside of the bubble right now, and you've almost 547 00:26:55,800 --> 00:26:58,040 with the loss. To Maryland, you've kind of 548 00:26:58,040 --> 00:27:00,240 thrown away. What would have been a really? 549 00:27:00,240 --> 00:27:03,760 Nice resume win against the team that probably isn't as good as 550 00:27:03,760 --> 00:27:05,920 their record indicates. Or as good as their. 551 00:27:05,920 --> 00:27:08,840 Overall numbers indicate. Although I will give Maryland 552 00:27:08,840 --> 00:27:10,120 credit, they. Are getting better. 553 00:27:10,560 --> 00:27:12,640 They they blew. Out Illinois at Illinois and 554 00:27:12,640 --> 00:27:16,000 then they they came home and they beat Wisconsin at home. 555 00:27:16,480 --> 00:27:18,400 Yesterday, I guess it was. Wednesday night. 556 00:27:18,680 --> 00:27:22,680 So you look at it. And you know Indiana right now. 557 00:27:22,720 --> 00:27:24,760 5:00 and 5:00 right now their overall. 558 00:27:24,760 --> 00:27:28,920 Projection in terms of the Big 10 tournament is not good. 559 00:27:29,280 --> 00:27:32,120 Indiana right now projected to go 8 and 12 in conference, which 560 00:27:32,120 --> 00:27:35,280 I think would land them 13th in the conference. 561 00:27:35,480 --> 00:27:38,320 And there's only going to be 15. Teams invited out of the. 18 to 562 00:27:38,320 --> 00:27:40,200 the Big 10 Tournament. So Indiana. 563 00:27:40,200 --> 00:27:44,680 Talking about like a first. Day selection and having to win 564 00:27:44,680 --> 00:27:47,040 five games in five days in order. 565 00:27:47,040 --> 00:27:49,000 To to get to the. The title game and win it and 566 00:27:49,000 --> 00:27:52,920 get an automatic bid and. You're kind of in this weird. 567 00:27:52,920 --> 00:27:56,280 Spot right now with Indiana, where the projection is eight 568 00:27:56,280 --> 00:27:57,640 wins and. We talked about the three. 569 00:27:57,640 --> 00:28:00,920 Games that Indiana's favored. For, you know, Penn State. 570 00:28:00,960 --> 00:28:04,840 And Ohio State at home. And then at Washington. 571 00:28:06,320 --> 00:28:08,320 You're in the mix with a bunch of other teams now. 572 00:28:08,320 --> 00:28:11,840 I think Indiana's lucky right now in that there are three 573 00:28:11,840 --> 00:28:16,640 teams that are clearly worse than them in terms of projected 574 00:28:16,640 --> 00:28:20,280 record. Nebraska is projected to go 7 575 00:28:20,280 --> 00:28:22,440 and 13 in conference. Minnesota's projected. 576 00:28:22,440 --> 00:28:26,120 To go 6 and 14 and Washington. Projected to go 4 and. 16. 577 00:28:27,120 --> 00:28:29,200 I feel pretty good even with the. 578 00:28:29,200 --> 00:28:32,040 Loss to Nebraska that Indiana. Suffered that Indiana will 579 00:28:32,040 --> 00:28:33,960 likely finish ahead of those three teams. 580 00:28:33,960 --> 00:28:37,520 Since Indiana's already got two wins in hand on Minnesota and 581 00:28:37,520 --> 00:28:39,240 they beat them. And they don't. 582 00:28:39,240 --> 00:28:40,360 Have to play them again so they got the. 583 00:28:40,360 --> 00:28:43,880 Tiebreaker there and they have. Three games in hand. 584 00:28:44,120 --> 00:28:45,480 Against Nebraska, at least three. 585 00:28:45,480 --> 00:28:47,680 Wins in hand that they. Did lose to Nebraska, so they 586 00:28:47,680 --> 00:28:49,440 would lose that. Tiebreaker, but now you're. 587 00:28:49,440 --> 00:28:51,880 Talking about the potential of a big tiebreaker with a bunch of. 588 00:28:51,880 --> 00:28:55,000 Different teams involved, which might help Indiana in that mix. 589 00:28:55,360 --> 00:28:57,160 But you look. At the teams, Indiana might be 590 00:28:57,160 --> 00:28:59,880 fighting for seating, positioning and. 591 00:29:00,320 --> 00:29:02,120 You know. Penn State's going to be in that 592 00:29:02,120 --> 00:29:03,040 mix. They're projected. 593 00:29:03,040 --> 00:29:06,120 To go 8 and 12, Northwestern's going to be in that mix at 8:00 594 00:29:06,120 --> 00:29:09,000 and 12:00. UCL as projected at 11. 9:00 595 00:29:09,000 --> 00:29:10,880 But. You know they're also projected. 596 00:29:10,880 --> 00:29:13,920 To win against Indiana. So if you can map that game now 597 00:29:13,920 --> 00:29:17,520 you've given yourself. A boost in terms of if you can 598 00:29:17,520 --> 00:29:19,320 tie. UCLA in the standings, you're 599 00:29:19,320 --> 00:29:21,760 going to have the advantage in terms of tiebreaker, so. 600 00:29:22,120 --> 00:29:26,600 That's from a purely. Like numbers, perspective what 601 00:29:26,600 --> 00:29:29,040 Indiana is facing. And it's going to be. 602 00:29:29,040 --> 00:29:31,760 Interesting to see how they. Fare now one of the. 603 00:29:31,760 --> 00:29:34,360 Things I think is worth noting now and I'm going to turn the 604 00:29:34,360 --> 00:29:37,520 screen back on. Here to showcase this for you 605 00:29:37,520 --> 00:29:39,280 all. To going to Kenpom. 606 00:29:39,480 --> 00:29:40,760 And we could do this with Torvic too. 607 00:29:40,760 --> 00:29:42,600 But I want to give both of these sites some love. 608 00:29:43,720 --> 00:29:45,600 One of the things. That's notable once you get to 609 00:29:45,600 --> 00:29:47,560 about the halfway point of the conference season. 610 00:29:47,800 --> 00:29:51,480 Is this idea of conference only? Statistics. 611 00:29:52,000 --> 00:29:58,120 So basically taking out the the things that are, you know, the, 612 00:29:58,160 --> 00:30:00,920 the games you played. Against non conference. 613 00:30:00,920 --> 00:30:05,600 Opponents and just focusing on. What Indiana's doing in 614 00:30:05,640 --> 00:30:07,400 conference or what all the. Teams are doing in. 615 00:30:07,400 --> 00:30:10,320 Conference and So what? We see with that and you can see 616 00:30:10,320 --> 00:30:12,560 it on screen here, you know if you look at. 617 00:30:12,560 --> 00:30:15,160 Offensive efficiency in conference, Michigan State has 618 00:30:15,160 --> 00:30:17,000 been the best. By far, they've also played one 619 00:30:17,000 --> 00:30:18,000 of the weakest. Schedules. 620 00:30:18,000 --> 00:30:19,720 So is Indiana, but. We'll leave that. 621 00:30:19,720 --> 00:30:22,600 Aside for the moment, Purdue's been second best in offensive 622 00:30:22,600 --> 00:30:24,280 efficiency. Wisconsin's been third. 623 00:30:24,280 --> 00:30:27,720 Was Michigan's been 4th? Iowa's been 5th, Indiana's 10th. 624 00:30:28,280 --> 00:30:31,720 Which is obviously not as. Bad as it could be, but that's 625 00:30:31,720 --> 00:30:33,880 very middle of the pack. That's almost smack. 626 00:30:33,880 --> 00:30:36,760 Dab in the middle. Indiana's effective field goal 627 00:30:36,760 --> 00:30:40,560 percentage in conference has been awful, 48.4%. 628 00:30:40,560 --> 00:30:43,840 That's 17th in the conference. Only Washington shooting worse 629 00:30:43,840 --> 00:30:45,680 in terms of effective field goal percentage. 630 00:30:46,240 --> 00:30:49,760 And shockingly. It's because Indiana's two point 631 00:30:49,760 --> 00:30:53,240 field goal percentage which really saved them from like a 632 00:30:53,240 --> 00:30:55,080 really embarrassing season. Last year because it. 633 00:30:55,080 --> 00:30:56,680 Compensated for the lack of threes. 634 00:30:57,080 --> 00:30:59,120 Indiana's worst in the conference right now in two 635 00:30:59,120 --> 00:31:01,720 point field goal percentage at 48.1%. 636 00:31:02,640 --> 00:31:06,600 And you know, they're 13th in the country in the conference in 637 00:31:06,640 --> 00:31:08,840 in three-point field goal percentage, they're only 14th in 638 00:31:08,840 --> 00:31:10,280 the conference and free throw percentage. 639 00:31:10,280 --> 00:31:11,960 So the offense is just not clicking? 640 00:31:12,280 --> 00:31:14,760 Where they've really. Benefited is that they haven't 641 00:31:14,760 --> 00:31:16,720 turned the ball over and they've been getting a lot of offensive 642 00:31:16,720 --> 00:31:19,280 rebounds and they've been getting to the free throw line a 643 00:31:19,280 --> 00:31:21,400 decent amount. So that's kept possessions 644 00:31:21,400 --> 00:31:23,440 alive. But Indiana's just not shooting 645 00:31:23,440 --> 00:31:27,360 the ball well right now in conference games, and that's a 646 00:31:27,360 --> 00:31:29,040 trend. I don't know if Indiana's going 647 00:31:29,040 --> 00:31:31,040 to be. Able to fix as they go through 648 00:31:31,040 --> 00:31:32,480 the rest. Of the season, but that's if 649 00:31:32,480 --> 00:31:34,600 you're going to fix things, that's where it's got to start. 650 00:31:35,400 --> 00:31:37,600 Defensively, one of the reasons why Michigan. 651 00:31:37,600 --> 00:31:40,200 State's leading the conference is they've been the best team in 652 00:31:40,200 --> 00:31:42,040 terms of conference defensive efficiency. 653 00:31:42,120 --> 00:31:44,600 They're first in the conference. They're they're first in the 654 00:31:44,600 --> 00:31:46,480 conference in an effective field goal percentage. 655 00:31:46,920 --> 00:31:48,720 If you look at Indiana, they're 12th. 656 00:31:48,720 --> 00:31:50,520 In both of those categories, they're 12th in. 657 00:31:50,520 --> 00:31:52,640 Defensive efficiency in conference games. 658 00:31:52,960 --> 00:31:55,920 And they're 12th in effective. Field goal percentage allowed in 659 00:31:55,920 --> 00:31:58,800 conference games. And the biggest issues for IU is 660 00:31:58,800 --> 00:32:00,560 they're not. They're not stealing the ball, 661 00:32:00,560 --> 00:32:02,920 so they're not ending possessions early for the 662 00:32:02,920 --> 00:32:06,520 opposition and they're not forcing turnovers as we 663 00:32:06,520 --> 00:32:08,560 mentioned earlier, they're allowing. 664 00:32:08,560 --> 00:32:09,880 Opponents to shoot at, basically. 665 00:32:09,880 --> 00:32:13,560 A 36% clip from three and they're allowing opponents to 666 00:32:13,560 --> 00:32:16,280 shoot. 5850. 3.8%. From 2. 667 00:32:17,160 --> 00:32:19,120 So the defense. Just really not getting the job 668 00:32:19,120 --> 00:32:20,040 done. And I mean you look. 669 00:32:20,040 --> 00:32:23,160 At those two aggregate numbers, Indiana 10th in. 670 00:32:23,160 --> 00:32:24,800 Overall. Offensive efficiency in the 671 00:32:24,800 --> 00:32:28,040 conference. And Indiana, 12th in overall. 672 00:32:28,240 --> 00:32:31,400 Defensive conference efficiency? It's no. 673 00:32:31,400 --> 00:32:34,400 Wonder that they are. Not only in the middle. 674 00:32:34,400 --> 00:32:36,320 Of the Big 10. In terms of the standings right 675 00:32:36,320 --> 00:32:39,880 now, but are projected to only go 8 and. 12 These are all 676 00:32:39,880 --> 00:32:42,560 fixable items. But they're running out of time 677 00:32:42,560 --> 00:32:45,080 to fix them, and I think that's really a a concern. 678 00:32:45,640 --> 00:32:47,760 And and you look at. Where Indiana's going? 679 00:32:48,160 --> 00:32:50,680 Over the course of. These next few games, they're 680 00:32:50,680 --> 00:32:54,280 going to have to play. You know Purdue, who's second in 681 00:32:54,280 --> 00:32:55,640 both? Offensive and defensive 682 00:32:55,640 --> 00:32:57,200 efficiency. They're going to have to play 683 00:32:57,200 --> 00:33:00,160 Wisconsin, who's third in offense and 5th in. 684 00:33:00,160 --> 00:33:03,920 Defense, they got to play. Michigan, who's 4th in offense 685 00:33:03,920 --> 00:33:06,680 and 7th in defense. These are all teams that in both 686 00:33:06,680 --> 00:33:08,760 areas. Are ahead of Indiana and that's 687 00:33:08,760 --> 00:33:11,280 going to be a problem. So if there's going to be 688 00:33:11,280 --> 00:33:14,920 recovery and if there's going to be a turn around in. 689 00:33:14,920 --> 00:33:17,680 Terms of the trajectory of. Indiana season it's. 690 00:33:17,680 --> 00:33:19,680 Really going to have to start with one of those two. 691 00:33:19,680 --> 00:33:22,400 I don't know if they can do both, but one of those two areas 692 00:33:22,400 --> 00:33:23,560 is. Going to have to change. 693 00:33:23,960 --> 00:33:27,200 If you are going to see. Indiana coming away with with 694 00:33:27,200 --> 00:33:30,040 anything. Worthwhile over the course of 695 00:33:30,400 --> 00:33:31,720 the last six weeks of the season. 696 00:33:32,800 --> 00:33:35,280 One other thing I wanted to note, and I think it's, it's 697 00:33:35,280 --> 00:33:38,320 really interesting. It's a nice mapping. 698 00:33:38,320 --> 00:33:39,880 Of things I'm going to show Eric. 699 00:33:39,880 --> 00:33:43,120 Haslam's page here haslametrics.com and. 700 00:33:43,120 --> 00:33:45,040 This is going to be the hardest. One to try to translate. 701 00:33:45,040 --> 00:33:47,080 To the folks that are listening as opposed to watching. 702 00:33:47,080 --> 00:33:50,280 But if you go to Haslam. Metrics and you look at Indiana. 703 00:33:50,880 --> 00:33:53,280 You can see a. A bunch of different statistics 704 00:33:53,280 --> 00:33:55,160 in terms of how they're playing. What you're seeing on screen 705 00:33:55,160 --> 00:33:58,920 right now is Indiana's offensive efficiency ranking compared to 706 00:33:58,920 --> 00:34:01,920 the rest of the country. If you go day by day and what? 707 00:34:01,920 --> 00:34:04,760 You see is like Indiana started off the season and by by around 708 00:34:04,760 --> 00:34:08,040 Thanksgiving it stabilized at about the 25th. 709 00:34:08,239 --> 00:34:13,239 Or so 25th to. 30th team in the country in terms of offensive. 710 00:34:13,239 --> 00:34:16,480 Efficiency that starts to nosedive. 711 00:34:16,880 --> 00:34:21,360 Immediately after they get done. Playing the two Big 10 games at 712 00:34:21,360 --> 00:34:23,440 the beginning of. December and. 713 00:34:23,440 --> 00:34:25,880 Collapses to the point that you know by the. 714 00:34:25,880 --> 00:34:30,800 Time they play. Iowa in mid January their. 715 00:34:30,800 --> 00:34:32,600 Offensive efficiency ranking had dropped. 716 00:34:32,600 --> 00:34:36,400 All the way to about 110th in the country. 717 00:34:36,800 --> 00:34:38,159 Now they've rebounded. Some of these. 718 00:34:38,159 --> 00:34:43,080 Last few games and that's been interesting to see, you know, 719 00:34:43,239 --> 00:34:46,480 because I was really concerned about the fact that they kept. 720 00:34:46,480 --> 00:34:48,120 Trending down, they have bounced. 721 00:34:48,120 --> 00:34:50,480 Back up and as we mentioned. They had a really good offensive 722 00:34:50,480 --> 00:34:55,280 game against Maryland, they had a a decent offensive game, 723 00:34:55,280 --> 00:34:58,360 relatively speaking, against Northwestern, and they also had 724 00:34:58,360 --> 00:35:00,320 a decent offensive game against Ohio State. 725 00:35:00,320 --> 00:35:03,560 Actually a relatively good one. So they have rebounded. 726 00:35:03,560 --> 00:35:05,720 From what was their worst offensive game of the year 727 00:35:05,720 --> 00:35:06,520 against. Iowa. 728 00:35:06,760 --> 00:35:09,000 But I do wonder, you know, how does that? 729 00:35:09,000 --> 00:35:10,440 Trend line go. Do they keep? 730 00:35:10,440 --> 00:35:12,600 Coming up, they're going to. Have to to some degree. 731 00:35:12,840 --> 00:35:15,200 If Indiana wants a shot at the. NCAA Tournament. 732 00:35:15,560 --> 00:35:19,760 Defensively, the chart. Again, it shows Indiana peaks 733 00:35:19,760 --> 00:35:22,480 around 25th and in around Thanksgiving. 734 00:35:22,960 --> 00:35:25,760 Drops off a Cliff. At the end of. 735 00:35:26,080 --> 00:35:28,400 November And that was really the effect of Maui. 736 00:35:29,040 --> 00:35:31,480 And after coming back and putting in a good defensive 737 00:35:31,480 --> 00:35:34,640 performance in that game against Minnesota. 738 00:35:34,640 --> 00:35:38,720 Drop right back off a. Cliff again, and you know, right 739 00:35:38,720 --> 00:35:40,440 down Indiana's defensive efficiency. 740 00:35:40,440 --> 00:35:41,960 Wallet got. Slightly better in the middle. 741 00:35:41,960 --> 00:35:44,000 Of December is go, excuse me, in the middle of. 742 00:35:44,000 --> 00:35:48,360 January has dropped back down into the 80 ish range on Haslam 743 00:35:48,960 --> 00:35:51,680 and. You know, it's funny because, 744 00:35:51,680 --> 00:35:54,120 like the defensive. Efficiency starting to go down. 745 00:35:54,400 --> 00:35:56,680 Just as the offensive efficiency is coming up. 746 00:35:56,680 --> 00:36:01,480 So that is a concern. Because you want both of those 747 00:36:01,480 --> 00:36:03,720 things to be moving up. You don't want one to fall off 748 00:36:04,160 --> 00:36:06,320 while the other one gets better because then it just kind of 749 00:36:06,320 --> 00:36:09,360 looks like you're plugging 1 hole in the boat and letting 750 00:36:09,360 --> 00:36:11,520 water in the other hole in the boat so. 751 00:36:12,320 --> 00:36:13,320 We'll see. I mean I I. 752 00:36:13,320 --> 00:36:16,800 Think for IU at this. Point, You know, one of the 753 00:36:16,800 --> 00:36:20,080 things that stands out. And as Haslam does a good job of 754 00:36:20,080 --> 00:36:24,000 figuring this out, he's got a A. A note for a like there's a 755 00:36:24,120 --> 00:36:28,280 statistic called consistency. And it's essentially how, how 756 00:36:28,280 --> 00:36:31,280 consistently are you? Are you playing Indiana's not 757 00:36:31,280 --> 00:36:33,200 very consistent like Indiana is very. 758 00:36:33,360 --> 00:36:35,680 And we you don't need statistics to tell you that. 759 00:36:35,920 --> 00:36:38,360 Indiana bounces all over the place in terms of overall 760 00:36:38,360 --> 00:36:41,720 performance and, and that's a real concern and. 761 00:36:42,000 --> 00:36:44,320 It's why I won't. Be shocked if Indiana goes out 762 00:36:44,320 --> 00:36:46,280 and wins one of these games. Against a tough opponent and 763 00:36:46,280 --> 00:36:48,160 then loses. Game that they should win. 764 00:36:48,880 --> 00:36:50,240 That's just kind of the. Way that the season's. 765 00:36:50,240 --> 00:36:52,920 Gone so far so. Anyway, that's that's. 766 00:36:52,920 --> 00:36:55,400 Kind of an overall look at the team numbers. 767 00:36:55,400 --> 00:36:57,120 We're not. Diving into individual numbers 768 00:36:57,120 --> 00:36:59,840 tonight but looking at. Team numbers seeing where 769 00:36:59,840 --> 00:37:02,520 Indiana's AT and this is what confronts them as they go into 770 00:37:02,520 --> 00:37:04,760 Mackey. And they try to put themselves 771 00:37:04,760 --> 00:37:08,000 in a position where perhaps they, you know, could get into 772 00:37:08,360 --> 00:37:11,920 the NCAA tournament. Who knows what happens as far as 773 00:37:11,920 --> 00:37:13,640 all this goes, but it's going. To be interesting to see. 774 00:37:14,440 --> 00:37:16,840 As Indiana. Tries to salvage their season. 775 00:37:17,240 --> 00:37:18,720 And at. This point they sit. 776 00:37:18,720 --> 00:37:21,240 Outside the bubble, They've got all of the tools at their 777 00:37:21,240 --> 00:37:22,640 disposal to get inside the bubble. 778 00:37:22,640 --> 00:37:25,240 The question is, can this team start to row the? 779 00:37:25,240 --> 00:37:28,920 Same way can the. Coaching staff do what they need 780 00:37:28,920 --> 00:37:31,880 to be doing to get Indiana into a position where they can get 781 00:37:31,880 --> 00:37:35,080 back into the NCAA Tournament, which really I think is worth 782 00:37:35,080 --> 00:37:37,600 noting was the minimum expectation for this season. 783 00:37:37,880 --> 00:37:40,360 But at this point. Anything beyond that is. 784 00:37:40,360 --> 00:37:43,360 Probably too much to ask for at the very least. 785 00:37:43,360 --> 00:37:46,120 If you get Indiana. Into the tournament you've got. 786 00:37:46,360 --> 00:37:48,920 Obviously some talented players, maybe something happens there. 787 00:37:49,160 --> 00:37:51,960 But that's where things are. At right now, with Indiana 788 00:37:51,960 --> 00:37:55,000 certainly on the outside looking in as of January 30th. 789 00:37:55,520 --> 00:37:57,040 But with a lot of opportunities to change. 790 00:37:57,040 --> 00:37:59,280 That as we move forward. Anyway, that'll wrap it up. 791 00:37:59,400 --> 00:38:00,960 For this episode of Crimson Cast. 792 00:38:01,360 --> 00:38:04,040 I'll be back with more with Scott, probably over this. 793 00:38:04,040 --> 00:38:05,600 Weekend, we'll recap what happened. 794 00:38:05,600 --> 00:38:07,560 In Purdue, we'll preview what. Happens in the. 795 00:38:07,560 --> 00:38:09,680 Wisconsin game and we'll. Talk about some other items as 796 00:38:09,680 --> 00:38:11,080 well. Thanks for joining us here on 797 00:38:11,080 --> 00:38:12,880 Crimson Cast. Thank you to our presenting 798 00:38:12,880 --> 00:38:14,280 sponsor, Home Field Apparel. Thanks to Evan. 799 00:38:14,280 --> 00:38:17,000 Williams for sponsoring us on. February 8th at the upstairs 800 00:38:17,000 --> 00:38:18,800 pub. We'll see you folks there catch 801 00:38:18,800 --> 00:38:20,520 you. On the flip side, bring back the 802 00:38:20,520 --> 00:38:21,880 bison. Stay never daunted. 803 00:38:21,960 --> 00:38:22,560 So long, everybody.