1 00:00:00,320 --> 00:00:03,920 In markets, contagious exuberance can take hold from 2 00:00:03,920 --> 00:00:07,520 time to time, leading to investment frenzies followed by 3 00:00:07,520 --> 00:00:10,760 market crashes. Most people who are interested 4 00:00:10,760 --> 00:00:14,600 in markets and investing find this type of collective delusion 5 00:00:14,600 --> 00:00:16,960 fascinating. It doesn't just show up in 6 00:00:16,960 --> 00:00:19,720 markets, however. Collective delusions are 7 00:00:19,720 --> 00:00:23,480 everywhere around us. According to Pew Research, over 8 00:00:23,480 --> 00:00:27,360 time, more and more Americans believe that crime is a growing 9 00:00:27,360 --> 00:00:29,680 problem. They believe that this is more 10 00:00:29,680 --> 00:00:33,360 the case nationally than locally, but statistics show 11 00:00:33,520 --> 00:00:37,520 that crime in the United States, and especially violent crime, 12 00:00:37,640 --> 00:00:42,000 has plummeted since the 1990s. There are all sorts of 13 00:00:42,000 --> 00:00:46,600 statistics that show the quality of life has improved massively 14 00:00:46,600 --> 00:00:50,600 over time, but for some reason people don't want to believe 15 00:00:50,600 --> 00:00:54,920 that. 20 years ago I came across a book by Stephen Moore and 16 00:00:54,920 --> 00:00:58,720 Julian Simon called It's Getting Better All the Time which 17 00:00:58,720 --> 00:01:03,160 examined the 100 greatest trends of the last 100 years which 18 00:01:03,160 --> 00:01:06,800 showed that people were taller, healthier, poverty rates were 19 00:01:06,800 --> 00:01:12,000 lower, household incomes had not only risen but household sizes 20 00:01:12,000 --> 00:01:15,960 had fallen, meaning that there was more money per family member 21 00:01:15,960 --> 00:01:19,720 than there had ever been before. There were many eye opening 22 00:01:19,720 --> 00:01:23,640 charts in the book which showed that despite all the negative 23 00:01:23,640 --> 00:01:27,320 news that we read, that the overall quality of life was 24 00:01:27,320 --> 00:01:31,680 trending upwards globally, the author showed that a greater 25 00:01:31,680 --> 00:01:35,080 percentage of the global population had access to 26 00:01:35,080 --> 00:01:39,040 education, nutrition and clean water than ever before. 27 00:01:39,280 --> 00:01:43,520 Statistics like global child mortality, a statistic that 28 00:01:43,520 --> 00:01:46,480 pulls together many of the improvements that we've 29 00:01:46,480 --> 00:01:49,960 experienced in terms of medicine, hygiene, access to 30 00:01:49,960 --> 00:01:54,080 food and shelter, safety for wars, and much more, had 31 00:01:54,080 --> 00:02:01,000 improved massively over time. In, 18144% of people died before 32 00:02:01,000 --> 00:02:06,640 their 5th birthday, and today that number has fallen to 3.7%. 33 00:02:07,240 --> 00:02:10,560 The improvements aren't all in the distant past either. 34 00:02:10,759 --> 00:02:14,000 According to the World Health Organization, although the 35 00:02:14,000 --> 00:02:18,800 global population has grown, the total number of under 5 deaths 36 00:02:18,800 --> 00:02:25,280 worldwide has declined from 12.8 million in 1990 to 4.9 million 37 00:02:25,280 --> 00:02:29,120 in 2022. When I look at the comments 38 00:02:29,120 --> 00:02:32,600 section of my videos, I'm occasionally surprised to see 39 00:02:32,720 --> 00:02:36,480 how angry and negative some people are about the economy. 40 00:02:36,720 --> 00:02:39,600 They'll say that the dollar is in decline, but if we look at 41 00:02:39,600 --> 00:02:43,640 the dollar index, which compares the US dollar to a basket of 42 00:02:43,640 --> 00:02:47,000 America's trade partners currencies, we can see that the 43 00:02:47,000 --> 00:02:50,840 dollar is in fact strong. Every major currency in the 44 00:02:50,840 --> 00:02:53,720 world has fallen against the dollar this year. 45 00:02:54,120 --> 00:02:58,200 The US economy has been booming by almost every measure in 46 00:02:58,200 --> 00:03:01,440 recent years. Most Americans are doing better 47 00:03:01,600 --> 00:03:05,640 than they were a year ago. Unemployment is lower, wages are 48 00:03:05,640 --> 00:03:08,000 growing, and inflation is declining. 49 00:03:08,240 --> 00:03:12,160 It's not just the 1%, either. The statistics show that 50 00:03:12,160 --> 00:03:16,440 Americans across ages and social classes are doing well. 51 00:03:16,640 --> 00:03:20,280 In a video earlier this year, I mentioned that unemployment was 52 00:03:20,280 --> 00:03:23,560 near all time lows. People wrote in the comments 53 00:03:23,720 --> 00:03:27,000 that this was because so many people had stopped looking for 54 00:03:27,000 --> 00:03:31,160 work, but that's not true. The labour force participation 55 00:03:31,160 --> 00:03:34,520 rate has risen every year for the last three years. 56 00:03:34,720 --> 00:03:38,560 On top of that, there are more jobs available today than there 57 00:03:38,560 --> 00:03:42,240 are job seekers. These are tangible economic 58 00:03:42,240 --> 00:03:45,040 improvements that should be cheering people up. 59 00:03:45,240 --> 00:03:49,240 But that's not what's happening. Surveys show that Americans are 60 00:03:49,240 --> 00:03:52,640 the most pessimistic that they've been about the economy 61 00:03:52,640 --> 00:03:56,560 in 30 years. Tik Tokers, who Youtubers look 62 00:03:56,560 --> 00:04:01,120 down on, have coined the term the silent Depression, claiming 63 00:04:01,120 --> 00:04:04,760 that it's harder to get by today than it was during the Great 64 00:04:04,760 --> 00:04:09,080 Depression, an idea that is entirely divorced from reality. 65 00:04:09,400 --> 00:04:14,360 During the Great Depression, USGDP contracted by 35%, 66 00:04:14,640 --> 00:04:18,640 international trade more than halved and unemployment rose to 67 00:04:18,640 --> 00:04:22,840 23%. In contrast, last week's GDP 68 00:04:22,840 --> 00:04:27,280 report showed that the US economy grew at a 2.8% 69 00:04:27,280 --> 00:04:32,480 annualized rate and unemployment is at 4.1%, which is near its 70 00:04:32,480 --> 00:04:35,800 all time lows. Up until a few years ago, 71 00:04:36,000 --> 00:04:40,280 Americans economic attitudes mostly tracked what was actually 72 00:04:40,280 --> 00:04:43,560 happening in the economy. When things improved, surveys 73 00:04:43,560 --> 00:04:47,440 showed that people's subjective experience of the economy 74 00:04:47,440 --> 00:04:50,280 improved too. And when there was a slowdown, 75 00:04:50,440 --> 00:04:53,440 people reported that things had gotten worse for them. 76 00:04:54,080 --> 00:04:58,200 Everything seemed to change in mid 2020, when the pandemic 77 00:04:58,200 --> 00:05:01,320 first struck. The economy tanked and sentiment 78 00:05:01,320 --> 00:05:04,920 collapsed with it. So far, that's totally normal. 79 00:05:05,160 --> 00:05:09,160 But the strange thing is that when the economy bounced back, 80 00:05:09,280 --> 00:05:12,400 sentiment didn't. The relationship between 81 00:05:12,400 --> 00:05:16,920 economic statistics and surveys of public sentiment broke down 82 00:05:16,920 --> 00:05:20,600 entirely at that point. And this was totally new. 83 00:05:20,800 --> 00:05:24,600 There's no history of a similar divergent looking back through 84 00:05:24,800 --> 00:05:29,320 economic statistics O Let's dig into why people are so gloomy 85 00:05:29,320 --> 00:05:32,880 about the economy and so pessimistic about the future 86 00:05:32,880 --> 00:05:36,320 today. OK, So what do we mean by a good 87 00:05:36,320 --> 00:05:39,600 economy? Well, to start with GDP growth, 88 00:05:39,920 --> 00:05:43,280 the US economy has been outpacing other advanced 89 00:05:43,280 --> 00:05:47,000 economies, with some projecting that the US will grow by as much 90 00:05:47,000 --> 00:05:51,400 as 3% this year when other leading economies are projected 91 00:05:51,400 --> 00:05:56,400 to grow by 1% or less. Next, the stock market has been 92 00:05:56,400 --> 00:06:00,640 booming. The S&P 500 is up more than 27% 93 00:06:00,640 --> 00:06:03,600 year to date. There's been strong wage growth, 94 00:06:03,640 --> 00:06:07,320 low unemployment, and declining inflation, which is getting 95 00:06:07,320 --> 00:06:12,360 close to the Fed's 2% target. Labor force participation has 96 00:06:12,360 --> 00:06:16,160 increased, which means that even people who weren't looking for 97 00:06:16,160 --> 00:06:19,760 jobs now are working because the employment environment has 98 00:06:19,760 --> 00:06:23,080 gotten so good. Even those Tik Tokers talking 99 00:06:23,080 --> 00:06:26,880 about the silent depression are earning money in a way that was 100 00:06:26,880 --> 00:06:31,320 not possible during the actual or noisy depression as I now 101 00:06:31,320 --> 00:06:33,960 call it. These are all things that we 102 00:06:33,960 --> 00:06:36,480 should feel in our day-to-day lives. 103 00:06:36,680 --> 00:06:39,880 And to top it off, the people who have seen the biggest income 104 00:06:39,880 --> 00:06:43,440 and wage gains are the people at the lower end of the income 105 00:06:43,440 --> 00:06:46,640 distribution. As the widening inequality that 106 00:06:46,640 --> 00:06:51,000 we've seen for decades reverse direction during the pandemic in 107 00:06:51,000 --> 00:06:55,280 pretty much all advanced economies, a wider swathe of 108 00:06:55,280 --> 00:06:59,360 people across American classes in their day-to-day life are 109 00:06:59,360 --> 00:07:02,080 experiencing positive economic benefits. 110 00:07:02,280 --> 00:07:06,040 But despite all of this, the average man on the street still 111 00:07:06,040 --> 00:07:09,400 feels that the economy is in terrible shape. 112 00:07:09,960 --> 00:07:14,080 Now, obviously I'm not trying to say that everyone is thriving 113 00:07:14,280 --> 00:07:16,720 and no one has anything to be down about. 114 00:07:16,920 --> 00:07:20,520 There are of course, plenty of people experiencing misfortune, 115 00:07:20,720 --> 00:07:25,160 but that's always been the case. The thing that's unusual is just 116 00:07:25,160 --> 00:07:29,200 that the average sentiment is so bad when the average American is 117 00:07:29,200 --> 00:07:32,320 doing better economically than they were in the past. 118 00:07:32,760 --> 00:07:37,480 According to Pew Research, large majorities of Americans say that 119 00:07:37,480 --> 00:07:40,760 they're dissatisfied with the economy, and when they look 120 00:07:40,760 --> 00:07:44,560 towards the not too distant future, they see a country that 121 00:07:44,560 --> 00:07:49,640 will be worse than it is today. When they look to the past, 58% 122 00:07:49,640 --> 00:07:54,240 of Americans say that life for people like them is worse today 123 00:07:54,240 --> 00:07:58,880 than it was 50 years ago. Gallup reports that Americans 124 00:07:58,880 --> 00:08:02,520 are the most pessimistic that they've been in decades about 125 00:08:02,520 --> 00:08:06,360 young young people's chances of having greater material success 126 00:08:06,360 --> 00:08:11,400 in life than their parents. 58% of American adults think that 127 00:08:11,400 --> 00:08:15,040 it's unlikely that today's youth will have a better life than 128 00:08:15,040 --> 00:08:18,560 their parents had. This is an 18 percentage point 129 00:08:18,560 --> 00:08:22,240 increase in pessimism over the last five years. 130 00:08:22,640 --> 00:08:25,880 You might think that the people are being cautious and worrying 131 00:08:25,880 --> 00:08:29,000 that an economic boom is about to turn to a bust. 132 00:08:29,280 --> 00:08:32,640 But if that was true, it would be quite a break with the past, 133 00:08:32,640 --> 00:08:37,120 too, as the highest percentage of US adults expecting better 134 00:08:37,120 --> 00:08:40,960 lives for the next generation was 71%. 135 00:08:41,120 --> 00:08:46,120 And that happened in 1999 at the peakofthe.com bubble. 136 00:08:46,320 --> 00:08:49,880 So if people are being cautious now, they certainly weren't 137 00:08:49,880 --> 00:08:54,160 cautious back then. Gilad, Aide at The Atlantic 138 00:08:54,160 --> 00:08:58,800 conducted a poll last December asking over 1000 Americans how 139 00:08:58,800 --> 00:09:03,520 they felt about the economy. Only 20% of respondents said 140 00:09:03,680 --> 00:09:08,560 that the economy had improved over the last year, and 44% said 141 00:09:08,560 --> 00:09:12,200 it had gotten worse. He found that while there was a 142 00:09:12,200 --> 00:09:15,760 partisan split and Republicans were more negative about the 143 00:09:15,760 --> 00:09:19,440 economy than Democrats, Democrats were still very 144 00:09:19,440 --> 00:09:23,440 negative. Only 33% of Democrats felt that 145 00:09:23,440 --> 00:09:27,520 the economy had improved. Interestingly, Fareed Zakaria 146 00:09:27,520 --> 00:09:32,000 reported in the Washington Post that despite all of the internal 147 00:09:32,000 --> 00:09:36,200 pessimism in the United States, international polls show that 148 00:09:36,200 --> 00:09:39,440 the rest of the world views the United States much more 149 00:09:39,440 --> 00:09:42,360 positively than they did five years ago. 150 00:09:42,640 --> 00:09:46,680 A study conducted by King's College London found that across 151 00:09:46,680 --> 00:09:51,560 24 nations where trends exist, the share of the public who feel 152 00:09:51,560 --> 00:09:56,200 the US model should be followed has risen by 7% vantage points 153 00:09:56,320 --> 00:10:00,520 since 2019. Zakaria writes that while 154 00:10:00,520 --> 00:10:04,720 Americans may be troubled by the depolarisation and division in 155 00:10:04,720 --> 00:10:08,960 the country, an international audience sees that the debate 156 00:10:09,080 --> 00:10:12,760 for the nation's dirty laundry is constantly washed in full 157 00:10:12,760 --> 00:10:16,760 public view is better than the alternative of repressing 158 00:10:16,760 --> 00:10:21,120 national problems, as can happen elsewhere where a North Korean 159 00:10:21,120 --> 00:10:23,760 style facade of unity is presented. 160 00:10:24,440 --> 00:10:28,720 Gilad Adelman at The Atlantic wrote that he expected to find 161 00:10:28,920 --> 00:10:32,240 that the economic frustration within the United States was 162 00:10:32,240 --> 00:10:35,840 driven by housing inflation, and so he gave his survey 163 00:10:35,840 --> 00:10:39,840 respondents a long list of factors to choose from as the 164 00:10:39,840 --> 00:10:43,000 metric that was dragging down the national economy. 165 00:10:43,240 --> 00:10:46,280 He found that it wasn't the cost of housing. 166 00:10:46,520 --> 00:10:50,200 The runaway winner, according to his survey, was the price of 167 00:10:50,200 --> 00:10:54,240 groceries at the supermarket. He points out that for every 168 00:10:54,240 --> 00:10:57,720 person that's irritated that housing prices are rising, 169 00:10:57,920 --> 00:11:01,080 there's another person delighted that the value of their home has 170 00:11:01,080 --> 00:11:03,880 gone up. He learned that people weren't 171 00:11:03,880 --> 00:11:07,440 actually upset that the generous benefits handed out during the 172 00:11:07,440 --> 00:11:10,880 pandemic had been withdrawn either, as some people had 173 00:11:10,880 --> 00:11:13,840 claimed. Apparently, people with children 174 00:11:13,840 --> 00:11:18,200 at home were more positive on the economy than people without 175 00:11:18,200 --> 00:11:22,000 kids, which you wouldn't expect if Americans were fuming over 176 00:11:22,000 --> 00:11:25,680 the expiration of the expanded child tax credit. 177 00:11:26,440 --> 00:11:29,760 I would have expected that. Some of the pessimism was driven 178 00:11:29,760 --> 00:11:34,240 by excessive exposure to social media, But the survey found that 179 00:11:34,240 --> 00:11:38,000 those who reported getting their news from Facebook, Instagram or 180 00:11:38,000 --> 00:11:42,600 Tiktok expressed more positive views than people who didn't. 181 00:11:42,800 --> 00:11:46,880 Those who read national and financial newspapers were also 182 00:11:46,880 --> 00:11:50,720 more positive than average. The most negative sentiment he 183 00:11:50,720 --> 00:11:54,160 found came from older people people, not Gen. 184 00:11:54,160 --> 00:11:57,400 Z Tik tokers. This is quite surprising as 185 00:11:57,400 --> 00:12:00,960 older people are asset owners who will have benefited from 186 00:12:00,960 --> 00:12:05,640 asset price inflation. Adelman points out that grocery 187 00:12:05,640 --> 00:12:09,920 prices went up more than average inflation and that in contrast 188 00:12:09,920 --> 00:12:14,560 with housing or used car prices, few ordinary Americans benefit 189 00:12:14,720 --> 00:12:17,400 when grocery prices go up. Higher. 190 00:12:17,400 --> 00:12:21,160 Grocery prices are also something that Americans see 191 00:12:21,240 --> 00:12:23,920 week after week when they go to the stores. 192 00:12:24,120 --> 00:12:28,400 Higher used car prices are much less of an irritant, as most 193 00:12:28,400 --> 00:12:32,440 people can postpone a car purchase if necessary, and it's 194 00:12:32,440 --> 00:12:37,320 a one off event every few years. Now most Americans are making 195 00:12:37,320 --> 00:12:41,640 more money after inflation than they were before the pandemic. 196 00:12:41,840 --> 00:12:45,440 I mentioned that statistic in the video a few months ago, and 197 00:12:45,440 --> 00:12:48,680 it drew all sorts of angry comments with people accusing me 198 00:12:48,680 --> 00:12:51,880 of making it up. But it's there in the data, and 199 00:12:51,880 --> 00:12:56,400 not just that wages have risen the fastest for the lowest paid 200 00:12:56,400 --> 00:12:59,520 workers. If people were coldly rational, 201 00:12:59,520 --> 00:13:03,280 Edelman points out, they would recognize that they're hiring. 202 00:13:03,360 --> 00:13:06,960 Income more than offsets the higher grocery prices. 203 00:13:07,320 --> 00:13:10,640 One reason for the dissatisfaction may be that 204 00:13:10,640 --> 00:13:13,720 workers expect their pay to go up over time. 205 00:13:13,960 --> 00:13:16,840 So they think that it's fair that they're earning more and 206 00:13:16,840 --> 00:13:19,440 unfair that their grocery bills have gone up. 207 00:13:19,440 --> 00:13:23,120 At the same time, there is reason to believe that the 208 00:13:23,120 --> 00:13:27,320 pandemic and the associated lockdowns might also have harmed 209 00:13:27,320 --> 00:13:31,240 the mood of the country, too. Research from Boston University 210 00:13:31,240 --> 00:13:35,680 found that prior to the pandemic, 8% of American adults 211 00:13:35,680 --> 00:13:38,040 experienced some form of depression. 212 00:13:38,360 --> 00:13:45,200 By April 2020, that proportion had jumped to 28%, and in 2021, 213 00:13:45,360 --> 00:13:50,320 the figure rose to 32%. Other reasons for America's 214 00:13:50,320 --> 00:13:54,840 pessimism of late is the worry that AI will take everyone's 215 00:13:54,840 --> 00:13:57,600 job. If we listen to Silicon Valley, 216 00:13:57,720 --> 00:14:01,360 we're only a year or two away from a society where film 217 00:14:01,360 --> 00:14:05,000 makers, journalists, lawyers, and doctors are all put out of 218 00:14:05,000 --> 00:14:08,120 work by AIS. You'll be sitting at home, 219 00:14:08,120 --> 00:14:11,000 penniless, worried about what will happen when you have to 220 00:14:11,000 --> 00:14:14,880 explain to the robot plumber who's just unblocked your drain 221 00:14:15,080 --> 00:14:16,880 that you can't afford to pay him. 222 00:14:17,280 --> 00:14:20,560 Will you be able to remove his battery pack before he puts you 223 00:14:20,560 --> 00:14:24,760 in cuffs and carts you away? And how will the Roomba react to 224 00:14:24,760 --> 00:14:27,440 seeing you do this? You kind of knew it was a 225 00:14:27,440 --> 00:14:30,720 mistake giving the vacuum cleaner your Wi-Fi password. 226 00:14:30,960 --> 00:14:35,800 What were you thinking? According to you Gov, 46% of 227 00:14:35,800 --> 00:14:40,600 people who use AI tools at work are worried about AI taking 228 00:14:40,600 --> 00:14:43,560 their job. Among those who never use AI 229 00:14:43,560 --> 00:14:47,480 tools at work, 26% are concerned about this. 230 00:14:47,920 --> 00:14:52,040 While AI can be expected to transform many aspects of daily 231 00:14:52,040 --> 00:14:55,680 life, there's been a long history of Labor automation. 232 00:14:55,880 --> 00:14:59,840 And historically, labor demand shifts away from jobs that can 233 00:14:59,840 --> 00:15:03,840 be automated towards new types of work where people work 234 00:15:03,840 --> 00:15:08,440 alongside the new technology. Workers Becoming more productive 235 00:15:08,680 --> 00:15:12,920 doesn't lead to job losses, it leads to more production, which 236 00:15:12,920 --> 00:15:16,680 also means greater availability of goods and services. 237 00:15:17,280 --> 00:15:21,920 One of the best examples of jobs being rapidly automated away is 238 00:15:21,920 --> 00:15:27,440 telephone switchboard operators. Around 350,000 women worked for 239 00:15:27,440 --> 00:15:31,400 telephone companies as switchboard operators up until 240 00:15:31,400 --> 00:15:35,360 as late as 1950. An additional million worked as 241 00:15:35,360 --> 00:15:38,560 switchboard operators at offices, hotels and other 242 00:15:38,560 --> 00:15:41,840 businesses. The rate of growth of telephone 243 00:15:41,840 --> 00:15:46,560 networks in the 1920s LED people to project that the phone 244 00:15:46,560 --> 00:15:50,160 companies would soon need to employ every American woman of 245 00:15:50,160 --> 00:15:52,840 working age as a switchboard operator. 246 00:15:53,240 --> 00:15:56,640 When mechanical switchboards were installed, the number of 247 00:15:56,640 --> 00:16:00,520 women employed as telephone operators immediately fell by 248 00:16:00,520 --> 00:16:06,440 50% to 80%, and wages for women in other occupations fell 249 00:16:06,440 --> 00:16:10,440 rapidly as employers were flooded with job applications. 250 00:16:10,760 --> 00:16:13,160 This didn't last for long, however. 251 00:16:13,360 --> 00:16:17,160 Studies show little or no negative long term employment 252 00:16:17,160 --> 00:16:20,680 effects at all. Laid off switchboard operators 253 00:16:20,680 --> 00:16:24,240 quickly found employment like secretary, material work, and 254 00:16:24,240 --> 00:16:27,040 restaurant jobs. And while some of those jobs, 255 00:16:27,040 --> 00:16:31,960 like restaurant work, paid less, others paid the same or more. 256 00:16:32,360 --> 00:16:37,160 Automation typically increases worker productivity and reduces 257 00:16:37,160 --> 00:16:41,440 employment in a given field. But we've seen all sorts of jobs 258 00:16:41,440 --> 00:16:45,280 automated in the past without leading to mass unemployment. 259 00:16:45,520 --> 00:16:47,840 The same can be expected in the future. 260 00:16:48,240 --> 00:16:51,200 There are all sorts of things that we can choose to worry 261 00:16:51,200 --> 00:16:54,200 about. The Doomsday Clock is a symbolic 262 00:16:54,200 --> 00:16:58,040 clock that represents how close we are to destroying the world 263 00:16:58,040 --> 00:17:00,680 with dangerous technologies of our own making. 264 00:17:00,920 --> 00:17:05,240 It warns how many metaphorical minutes to midnight humanity is 265 00:17:05,240 --> 00:17:08,200 left. It suggested every year with the 266 00:17:08,200 --> 00:17:11,560 goal of warning the public and inspiring action. 267 00:17:12,000 --> 00:17:15,560 I suppose we could lie awake all night worrying about global 268 00:17:15,560 --> 00:17:18,880 events that are entirely outside of our control. 269 00:17:19,160 --> 00:17:23,079 Or we could focus on taking action to improve our lives and 270 00:17:23,079 --> 00:17:27,240 the lives of those around us. There are all sorts of positive 271 00:17:27,240 --> 00:17:31,360 changes occurring in the world. Despite all of the news we read 272 00:17:31,360 --> 00:17:35,320 about hurricanes and natural disasters, the number of deaths 273 00:17:35,320 --> 00:17:40,720 from natural disasters has fallen by 75% over the past 100 274 00:17:40,720 --> 00:17:43,360 years. This figure's even more shocking 275 00:17:43,480 --> 00:17:47,120 when you consider how much the global population has grown over 276 00:17:47,120 --> 00:17:50,280 that period. Over the last 20 years, the 277 00:17:50,280 --> 00:17:53,440 proportion of the world's population living in extreme 278 00:17:53,440 --> 00:17:57,040 poverty has more than halved. The share of the world's 279 00:17:57,040 --> 00:18:01,560 population living in democracies increased continually over the 280 00:18:01,560 --> 00:18:06,160 last 250 years. And 80% of the population who 281 00:18:06,160 --> 00:18:10,080 live under an authoritarian regime today live in one 282 00:18:10,080 --> 00:18:13,520 country, China. The world's population has 283 00:18:13,520 --> 00:18:17,280 greater access to education than ever before too. 284 00:18:17,800 --> 00:18:21,200 For those feeling down about the economy, frustrated about 285 00:18:21,200 --> 00:18:25,160 politics, are worried about what the future has in store for us, 286 00:18:25,360 --> 00:18:28,760 it's worth reflecting on the idea that there have been much 287 00:18:28,760 --> 00:18:32,480 more difficult periods in the past and that for most people in 288 00:18:32,480 --> 00:18:35,640 the world, things have never been better than they are today. 289 00:18:36,000 --> 00:18:39,880 The reason these statistics have improved is not because people 290 00:18:39,880 --> 00:18:42,960 sat at home and worried about the direction society was 291 00:18:42,960 --> 00:18:45,480 taking. They've improved because it's in 292 00:18:45,480 --> 00:18:48,880 everyone's self-interest to improve the world, and when 293 00:18:48,880 --> 00:18:52,840 things got hard, people applied their energy to making things 294 00:18:52,840 --> 00:18:56,480 better. Our capacity to reflect on the 295 00:18:56,480 --> 00:19:00,880 challenges we face and find solutions explains all of the 296 00:19:00,880 --> 00:19:04,920 scientific and economic progress that's been made over time, and 297 00:19:04,920 --> 00:19:07,920 there's no good reason to believe that that will change 298 00:19:07,920 --> 00:19:11,800 anytime soon. Economic statistics show that 299 00:19:11,800 --> 00:19:15,680 the US economy is doing just fine right now, and even if it 300 00:19:15,680 --> 00:19:19,440 was not, if somehow the numbers are wrong, there's very little 301 00:19:19,440 --> 00:19:23,560 we can do about it individually. If you're feeling pessimistic, 302 00:19:23,680 --> 00:19:26,720 one of the best ways to lift your mood is to go outside and 303 00:19:26,720 --> 00:19:29,480 exercise. Contribute to your community, 304 00:19:29,640 --> 00:19:33,160 try to learn new things, engage with your friends, family, and 305 00:19:33,160 --> 00:19:37,320 loved ones, and work hard on improving your situation rather 306 00:19:37,320 --> 00:19:39,640 than focusing on the things holding you back. 307 00:19:40,240 --> 00:19:43,360 Thanks for tuning into this week's podcast, with particular 308 00:19:43,360 --> 00:19:47,120 thanks to my supporters on Patreon whose support makes this 309 00:19:47,120 --> 00:19:50,000 whole thing happen. Have a great week and I'll talk 310 00:19:50,000 --> 00:19:51,640 to you again soon. Bye.