1 00:00:00,200 --> 00:00:03,880 In the world of finance, a write off is a polite way to describe 2 00:00:03,880 --> 00:00:07,560 a massive investment that incinerated capital with nothing 3 00:00:07,560 --> 00:00:11,080 left to show for it but a tax deduction and a lesson learned. 4 00:00:11,400 --> 00:00:15,080 In Washington DC, however, it appears that they call it the 5 00:00:15,080 --> 00:00:17,120 Department of Government Efficiency. 6 00:00:17,520 --> 00:00:21,800 Elon Musk finally offered a candid post mortem on his brief 7 00:00:21,800 --> 00:00:24,880 but chaotic tenure as the spiritual leader of the 8 00:00:24,880 --> 00:00:27,320 department. You may recall that he wasn't 9 00:00:27,320 --> 00:00:31,160 the legal head, as former leadership would have required a 10 00:00:31,160 --> 00:00:34,960 Senate confirmed appointment. He spilled the beans earlier 11 00:00:34,960 --> 00:00:39,360 this week on a podcast hosted by Katie Miller, a name that might 12 00:00:39,360 --> 00:00:42,320 ring a bell if you followed the soap opera of Washington 13 00:00:42,320 --> 00:00:45,160 staffing. Katie Miller is the wife of 14 00:00:45,160 --> 00:00:48,840 Stephen Miller, Donald Trump's deputy chief of staff. 15 00:00:49,120 --> 00:00:52,720 She's also a former Trump administration official who 16 00:00:52,720 --> 00:00:57,040 served as the spokesperson for DOGE between January and May of 17 00:00:57,040 --> 00:00:59,640 this year. She left that role to work 18 00:00:59,640 --> 00:01:03,600 directly for Musk in the private sector before launching her 19 00:01:03,600 --> 00:01:06,760 podcast. The interview was a friendly 20 00:01:06,760 --> 00:01:10,760 affair, studiously avoiding the awkward elephant in the room. 21 00:01:11,000 --> 00:01:15,280 A viral incident last June where a fake screenshot circulated 22 00:01:15,280 --> 00:01:18,960 online showing Elon Musk bragging that he had stolen 23 00:01:18,960 --> 00:01:23,520 Katie Miller from her husband. Musk's truth seeking AI 24 00:01:23,520 --> 00:01:27,560 assistant Grok analysed the screenshot and declared it was 25 00:01:27,560 --> 00:01:30,800 likely genuine. Because the metrics and content 26 00:01:30,800 --> 00:01:35,160 aligned with Musk's behaviour. Musk had to publicly correct his 27 00:01:35,160 --> 00:01:38,640 own invention, which, as it turns out, was a perfect 28 00:01:38,640 --> 00:01:42,240 metaphor for the entire Doge project, an automated 29 00:01:42,240 --> 00:01:45,480 confirmation of a reality that didn't exist. 30 00:01:45,800 --> 00:01:49,400 For a project that ended with a whimper, the bang at the 31 00:01:49,400 --> 00:01:53,520 beginning was truly deafening. During a televised rally at 32 00:01:53,520 --> 00:01:57,840 Madison Square Garden last year, Howard Lutnick invited Musk on 33 00:01:57,840 --> 00:02:00,080 stage to ask him a simple question. 34 00:02:00,080 --> 00:02:10,360 All right. But we set up Doge, yes? 35 00:02:10,360 --> 00:02:15,840 How much do we you think we can RIP out of this wasted $6.5 36 00:02:15,840 --> 00:02:20,800 trillion Harris Biden budget? Well, I I think we can do at 37 00:02:20,800 --> 00:02:25,360 least 2 trillion. Yeah, yes, 2 trillion. 38 00:02:25,960 --> 00:02:30,040 It was a staggering figure, nearly a third of all federal 39 00:02:30,040 --> 00:02:32,440 spending. It was also, according to 40 00:02:32,440 --> 00:02:35,520 Lutnick, himself, completely off script. 41 00:02:35,760 --> 00:02:39,400 Lutnick later admitted to the Financial Times that the deal 42 00:02:39,400 --> 00:02:43,360 was that he was going to say he would cut $1 trillion, adding 43 00:02:43,360 --> 00:02:46,480 somewhat helplessly. What was I supposed to say? 44 00:02:46,840 --> 00:02:50,320 Apparently, in the heat of the moment, Musk decided to simply 45 00:02:50,320 --> 00:02:52,960 double the already ambitious promise. 46 00:02:53,280 --> 00:02:57,800 This tendency to amplify reality was an ongoing feature of the 47 00:02:57,800 --> 00:03:00,880 operation. Donald Trump famously described 48 00:03:00,880 --> 00:03:04,480 the initiative as the Manhattan Project of our time, a 49 00:03:04,480 --> 00:03:07,960 comparison that implied the department would be building an 50 00:03:07,960 --> 00:03:11,160 atomic bomb to drop on the federal bureaucracy. 51 00:03:11,680 --> 00:03:15,120 Now, that comparison was apartment, though perhaps not in 52 00:03:15,120 --> 00:03:18,960 the manner intended. Like the Manhattan Project, DOGE 53 00:03:18,960 --> 00:03:22,920 was shrouded in secrecy and driven by a sense of existential 54 00:03:22,920 --> 00:03:25,960 urgency. But unlike the physicists at Los 55 00:03:25,960 --> 00:03:30,120 Alamos who successfully split the atom, the workers at DOGE 56 00:03:30,320 --> 00:03:33,960 discovered that the laws of statutory spending could not be 57 00:03:33,960 --> 00:03:37,960 rewritten on a whiteboard. Within months, the target of $2 58 00:03:37,960 --> 00:03:41,560 trillion was quietly walked back to 1 trillion. 59 00:03:41,960 --> 00:03:46,280 By April, Musk was intimating that the savings might be closer 60 00:03:46,280 --> 00:03:49,880 to 150 billion. The Manhattan Project was 61 00:03:49,880 --> 00:03:52,120 rapidly turning into a bottle rocket. 62 00:03:52,560 --> 00:03:55,720 Now, before we dig into the specific reasons for the failure 63 00:03:55,720 --> 00:03:59,240 of Doge, we should acknowledge that the premise itself was not 64 00:03:59,240 --> 00:04:03,920 unsound, as rooting out fraud, waste and abuse is 1 political 65 00:04:03,920 --> 00:04:06,200 'cause that unites almost everyone. 66 00:04:06,200 --> 00:04:09,520 Whether you're a libertarian who wants to starve the beast or a 67 00:04:09,520 --> 00:04:13,280 socialist who wants a welfare beast to do more heavy lifting, 68 00:04:13,520 --> 00:04:16,480 you want your tax dollars to be spent efficiently. 69 00:04:16,920 --> 00:04:20,480 If there is waste, we should all be delighted to see it end. 70 00:04:20,720 --> 00:04:23,600 Reducing it with theoretically either either lower our tax 71 00:04:23,600 --> 00:04:26,640 bills or improve the quality of government services. 72 00:04:26,840 --> 00:04:29,560 We would, in short, get more for our money. 73 00:04:29,800 --> 00:04:34,000 Even if we put aside deliberate malfeasance, It's not crazy to 74 00:04:34,000 --> 00:04:37,720 think that a businessman with a background in technology who has 75 00:04:37,720 --> 00:04:40,840 built out huge manufacturing facilities around the world 76 00:04:41,040 --> 00:04:44,520 might be able to upgrade antiquated government systems, 77 00:04:44,760 --> 00:04:48,880 automate manual processes, and introduce rigorous metrics to 78 00:04:48,880 --> 00:04:52,920 measure performance. Efficiency is a noble goal. 79 00:04:53,120 --> 00:04:56,960 However, a worrying sign that this particular efficiency Dr. 80 00:04:56,960 --> 00:05:01,320 might not live up to The theory appeared early on, and it came 81 00:05:01,320 --> 00:05:05,240 from Musk himself. Shortly after the department was 82 00:05:05,240 --> 00:05:09,640 announced, he posted a meme on his Everything app depicting 83 00:05:09,640 --> 00:05:14,520 himself and his Co head Vivek as the Bobs, the two consultants 84 00:05:14,520 --> 00:05:16,960 from the cult classic film Office Space. 85 00:05:17,320 --> 00:05:20,800 For those who haven't seen the movie, The Bobs are brought put 86 00:05:20,800 --> 00:05:24,920 into a poorly managed software company called Initech to 87 00:05:24,920 --> 00:05:28,640 streamline operations. They are the embodiment of 88 00:05:28,640 --> 00:05:32,640 sterile corporate absurdity. They speak in buzzwords, they've 89 00:05:32,640 --> 00:05:36,200 no understanding of what the employees actually do, and they 90 00:05:36,200 --> 00:05:40,040 ultimately fire the wrong people like the competent software 91 00:05:40,040 --> 00:05:44,120 engineers while promoting the incompetent ones who simply know 92 00:05:44,120 --> 00:05:47,760 how to play the corporate game. Comparing your new government 93 00:05:47,760 --> 00:05:51,800 department to a pair of fictional consultants famous for 94 00:05:51,800 --> 00:05:56,160 being useless antagonists was certainly a choice, and as it 95 00:05:56,160 --> 00:05:58,640 turns out, it was a prophetic one. 96 00:05:58,840 --> 00:06:03,000 But to be fair to Musk, he did manage one genuine efficiency 97 00:06:03,000 --> 00:06:06,560 gain right out of the gate. He must have realized that a 98 00:06:06,560 --> 00:06:10,840 department dedicated to eliminating redundancy shouldn't 99 00:06:10,840 --> 00:06:15,160 start with two CE OS, and so he managed to shake off Vivek 100 00:06:15,160 --> 00:06:18,160 almost immediately. The first crack in the 101 00:06:18,160 --> 00:06:22,200 efficiency narrative appeared early on on on February 12th, 102 00:06:22,200 --> 00:06:26,280 2025, to be precise. That was the day The Economist 103 00:06:26,280 --> 00:06:30,000 published the piece with the blunt headline Elon Musk is 104 00:06:30,000 --> 00:06:32,320 failing to cut American spending. 105 00:06:32,760 --> 00:06:36,800 While Doge was posting viral videos of staff counting beans, 106 00:06:37,000 --> 00:06:40,760 literally because posting memes is what government officials do 107 00:06:40,760 --> 00:06:45,160 nowadays and promising a revolution, the magazine's data 108 00:06:45,160 --> 00:06:49,160 team was doing something far less exciting but far more 109 00:06:49,160 --> 00:06:51,760 revealing. They were reading the Daily 110 00:06:51,760 --> 00:06:56,600 Treasury Statements, or DTS. The DTS is effectively the 111 00:06:56,600 --> 00:06:59,600 federal government's daily checking account statement. 112 00:06:59,880 --> 00:07:03,880 Every working day, the Treasury publishes a detailed list of 113 00:07:03,880 --> 00:07:06,760 cash withdrawals from its primary deposit account. 114 00:07:07,000 --> 00:07:10,520 It doesn't care about press releases, ceiling values, or 115 00:07:10,520 --> 00:07:14,160 projected savings. It only cares about cash out the 116 00:07:14,160 --> 00:07:16,840 door. The Economist found that in the 117 00:07:16,840 --> 00:07:20,200 first three weeks of the new administration, despite the 118 00:07:20,200 --> 00:07:23,840 announce instruments of massive savings, federal outlays 119 00:07:23,880 --> 00:07:28,320 averaged $30 billion a day. When compared to the same period 120 00:07:28,320 --> 00:07:31,120 the prior year. Spending hadn't fallen. 121 00:07:31,120 --> 00:07:34,880 It had actually risen. Naturally, the excuse factory 122 00:07:34,880 --> 00:07:38,080 went into OverDrive. Defenders of the department 123 00:07:38,080 --> 00:07:41,840 argued that government spending is like a super tanker. 124 00:07:42,040 --> 00:07:45,520 It takes a lot of time to turn. They claimed that the savings 125 00:07:45,520 --> 00:07:49,680 would appear with a lag once the zombie contracts were fully 126 00:07:49,680 --> 00:07:52,800 terminated and the fired employees were off the payroll. 127 00:07:53,080 --> 00:07:55,720 And I don't really disagree with that argument. 128 00:07:56,160 --> 00:08:00,440 It was quite plausible. But by May, the Financial Times 129 00:08:00,440 --> 00:08:03,720 ran the numbers again and found the exact same thing. 130 00:08:04,160 --> 00:08:06,280 U.S. Treasury data, they wrote, has 131 00:08:06,280 --> 00:08:09,520 so far shown no drop in government spending. 132 00:08:09,840 --> 00:08:13,440 Now that we're a year into this experiment, I've updated the 133 00:08:13,440 --> 00:08:16,360 analysis myself. I looked at the daily 134 00:08:16,360 --> 00:08:20,320 withdrawals for the full fiscal year, and the results are well, 135 00:08:20,320 --> 00:08:24,360 let's just say the Super tanker didn't just fail to turn, it 136 00:08:24,360 --> 00:08:27,640 seems to have accelerated. If the Treasury's bank account 137 00:08:27,640 --> 00:08:31,360 was showing no savings, what had happened to the billions Elon 138 00:08:31,360 --> 00:08:35,080 Musk claimed he had cut? The answer could be backed out 139 00:08:35,080 --> 00:08:38,000 from the wall of receipts that Musk had posted on the 140 00:08:38,000 --> 00:08:41,159 department's website. This was supposed to be a 141 00:08:41,159 --> 00:08:45,080 testament to radical transparency, a live accounting 142 00:08:45,240 --> 00:08:47,480 for every dollar cut from the budget. 143 00:08:47,960 --> 00:08:51,440 But when auditors began to go through the receipts, they 144 00:08:51,440 --> 00:08:55,200 discovered that the wall was load bearing only in the sense 145 00:08:55,360 --> 00:08:57,240 that it was holding up a fantasy. 146 00:08:57,680 --> 00:09:02,160 Investigations by Politico and Futurism revealed that Doge was 147 00:09:02,160 --> 00:09:04,920 using a Met district, known in government procurement as 148 00:09:04,920 --> 00:09:07,960 ceiling value, to calculate its wins. 149 00:09:08,200 --> 00:09:11,720 When they cancelled a government contract, they didn't count the 150 00:09:11,720 --> 00:09:14,040 amount of money actually being spent. 151 00:09:14,240 --> 00:09:17,160 They counted the maximum theoretical amount that could 152 00:09:17,160 --> 00:09:20,000 have been spent over the lifetime of the deal. 153 00:09:20,400 --> 00:09:23,320 One of the more egregious examples was a shelter for 154 00:09:23,320 --> 00:09:27,440 migrant children. DOGE claimed a savings of $2.9 155 00:09:27,440 --> 00:09:30,040 billion for cancelling this contract. 156 00:09:30,320 --> 00:09:33,360 In reality, the shelter had been empty for a year year. 157 00:09:33,600 --> 00:09:37,200 The agency was only paying a small retainer to keep the 158 00:09:37,200 --> 00:09:41,120 facility on standby. The actual cash savings from 159 00:09:41,120 --> 00:09:45,560 cancelling the contract was only about 4% of the headline figure. 160 00:09:45,920 --> 00:09:49,800 This wasn't an isolated error, it was the entire DOGE 161 00:09:49,800 --> 00:09:53,000 methodology. Further investigation revealed 162 00:09:53,160 --> 00:09:56,920 that roughly $4 billion of the claim savings came from 163 00:09:56,920 --> 00:10:00,640 indefinite delivery vehicles, which are flexible framework 164 00:10:00,640 --> 00:10:05,240 contracts that allow agencies to order services if and when they 165 00:10:05,240 --> 00:10:08,000 need them. As procurement law expert 166 00:10:08,000 --> 00:10:12,160 Jessica Tilotman noted, claiming these as savings is the 167 00:10:12,160 --> 00:10:16,000 equivalent of basically taking out a credit card with a $20,000 168 00:10:16,000 --> 00:10:19,760 credit limit, cancelling it, and then saying I've just saved 169 00:10:19,760 --> 00:10:23,040 $20,000. You obviously haven't saved a 170 00:10:23,040 --> 00:10:25,000 dime. You've simply destroyed your 171 00:10:25,000 --> 00:10:28,320 line of credit. In the end, the department 172 00:10:28,320 --> 00:10:32,480 itself vanished just as silently as the savings it claimed to 173 00:10:32,480 --> 00:10:36,040 have found. In November 2025, with eight 174 00:10:36,040 --> 00:10:39,240 months still left on its official mandate, Reuters 175 00:10:39,240 --> 00:10:42,920 contacted the Office of Personnel Management to check on 176 00:10:42,920 --> 00:10:44,880 the status of the DOGE initiative. 177 00:10:45,160 --> 00:10:49,080 The OPM director gave the kind of brutally efficient answer 178 00:10:49,240 --> 00:10:51,640 that Musk himself might have appreciated. 179 00:10:51,960 --> 00:10:55,480 That doesn't exist. There was no press conference, 180 00:10:55,480 --> 00:10:58,280 no final report, and no mission accomplished. 181 00:10:58,280 --> 00:11:00,520 Banner. The Manhattan Project of our 182 00:11:00,520 --> 00:11:04,600 time had simply become a non centralized entity, its 183 00:11:04,600 --> 00:11:09,160 functions quietly absorbed back into the very HR departments it 184 00:11:09,160 --> 00:11:12,840 was meant to destroy. The department that was supposed 185 00:11:12,840 --> 00:11:16,160 to revolutionize the American state had been quietly 186 00:11:16,160 --> 00:11:20,800 disbanded, and the Super high IQ small government revolutionaries 187 00:11:21,000 --> 00:11:24,520 that Musk had recruited on his Everything app were either let 188 00:11:24,520 --> 00:11:28,320 go or moved into the national design studio to work on 189 00:11:28,320 --> 00:11:32,520 beautifying government websites. It turned out that the only 190 00:11:32,520 --> 00:11:35,760 thing Doge successfully deleted was itself. 191 00:11:36,360 --> 00:11:40,000 If the accounting was creative, the personnel management was 192 00:11:40,000 --> 00:11:43,760 catastrophic. Musk's stated strategy was to 193 00:11:43,760 --> 00:11:47,200 inject a start up culture into the federal workforce. 194 00:11:47,400 --> 00:11:50,280 He recruited a cadre of engineers and venture 195 00:11:50,280 --> 00:11:53,280 capitalists to disrupt the status quo. 196 00:11:53,640 --> 00:11:57,320 Leading this charge was a 19 year old technologist named 197 00:11:57,400 --> 00:12:00,720 Edward Karestein who commanded respect in the halls of 198 00:12:00,720 --> 00:12:04,120 Washington under the Nom de gar Big Balls. 199 00:12:04,600 --> 00:12:08,360 Mr. Balls, as we must assume he was addressed in meetings, was 200 00:12:08,360 --> 00:12:10,760 not your typical government employee. 201 00:12:10,960 --> 00:12:14,200 His previous qualifications included being fired from a 202 00:12:14,200 --> 00:12:18,480 cybersecurity internship for leaking secrets and reportedly 203 00:12:18,480 --> 00:12:22,440 providing tech support to a cyber crime gang that bragged 204 00:12:22,440 --> 00:12:27,200 about harassing FBI agents. Naturally, Doge decided that he 205 00:12:27,200 --> 00:12:30,720 was the perfect candidate to parachute into the Cybersecurity 206 00:12:30,720 --> 00:12:34,720 and Infrastructure Security Agency and the Social Security 207 00:12:34,720 --> 00:12:37,800 Administration. The epicenter of Doge's 208 00:12:37,800 --> 00:12:40,320 disruption, however, was the IRS. 209 00:12:40,600 --> 00:12:44,160 Doge's approach here perfectly illustrates the difference 210 00:12:44,400 --> 00:12:47,240 between cutting costs and destroying value. 211 00:12:47,880 --> 00:12:51,640 Early in the administration, Musk installed his own acting 212 00:12:51,640 --> 00:12:55,120 commissioners, leading to a revolving door of leadership 213 00:12:55,240 --> 00:12:58,520 where the agency averaged a new boss every month. 214 00:12:58,840 --> 00:13:02,400 The chaos culminated in a shouting match in The West Wing 215 00:13:02,680 --> 00:13:06,560 between Musk and Treasury Secretary Scott Percent over the 216 00:13:06,560 --> 00:13:10,440 firing of a mega aligned whistle blower who had been installed at 217 00:13:10,440 --> 00:13:13,320 the agency. But the real damage was 218 00:13:13,320 --> 00:13:16,600 operational. Doge pushed for the firing of 219 00:13:16,640 --> 00:13:19,960 tax cops to save on salaries. The result? 220 00:13:20,120 --> 00:13:25,440 A projected $64 billion loss in tax revenue over the next decade 221 00:13:25,640 --> 00:13:29,000 because there were fewer auditors to catch tax cheats. 222 00:13:29,240 --> 00:13:32,840 In economics, as in life, you often have to spend money to 223 00:13:32,840 --> 00:13:36,440 make money, and indiscriminately firing the people who collect 224 00:13:36,440 --> 00:13:39,480 the bills is rarely a path to profitability. 225 00:13:40,200 --> 00:13:43,040 The operational reality on the ground was grim. 226 00:13:43,320 --> 00:13:47,720 The Economist reported that the IRS cafeteria in Austin had to 227 00:13:47,720 --> 00:13:51,800 be used to store mountains of unprocessed paper tax returns 228 00:13:52,040 --> 00:13:55,960 because the staff required to digitize them had been let go or 229 00:13:55,960 --> 00:13:59,320 demoralized. The agency's widely praised 230 00:13:59,320 --> 00:14:03,360 Direct File tool, which had allowed Americans to file taxes 231 00:14:03,360 --> 00:14:06,000 for free, was put on the chopping block. 232 00:14:06,400 --> 00:14:09,840 While the chaos at the IRS hit the government's wallet, the 233 00:14:09,840 --> 00:14:13,400 dismantling of USA targeted its global reach. 234 00:14:13,680 --> 00:14:17,840 This was the one area where Doge truly succeeded in slashing a 235 00:14:17,840 --> 00:14:21,880 department, feeding it, in Musk's own words, into the wood 236 00:14:21,880 --> 00:14:24,960 chipper. Because US aid was created by 237 00:14:24,960 --> 00:14:28,840 Congress, Doge lacked the legal authority to abolish it. 238 00:14:29,080 --> 00:14:32,520 Instead, they used executive power to fire its staff and 239 00:14:32,520 --> 00:14:36,560 cancel its contracts, effectively closing it by Fiat. 240 00:14:37,040 --> 00:14:40,520 Interestingly, while this move horrified foreign policy 241 00:14:40,520 --> 00:14:43,680 experts, it was a political winner at home. 242 00:14:43,920 --> 00:14:47,080 The Financial Times reported that the gutting of foreign aid 243 00:14:47,120 --> 00:14:50,880 enjoyed broad support among voters, many of whom were 244 00:14:50,880 --> 00:14:54,360 reacting to viral claims from mosque that the agency was 245 00:14:54,360 --> 00:14:58,080 sending $50 million in condoms to Hamas. 246 00:14:58,920 --> 00:15:02,760 As it turns out, the efficiency experts at DOGE had confused the 247 00:15:02,760 --> 00:15:06,920 Gaza Strip with the Gaza province in Mozambique, where 248 00:15:06,920 --> 00:15:10,080 the US funds HIV prevention programs. 249 00:15:10,320 --> 00:15:15,160 USAID had sent 0 condoms to the Gaza Strip, but the correction 250 00:15:15,160 --> 00:15:18,640 came too late and the agency was already in the wood chip. 251 00:15:19,480 --> 00:15:24,080 The geopolitical cost associated with these savings may be steep. 252 00:15:24,320 --> 00:15:28,360 Bill Gates told the FT that the picture of the world's richest 253 00:15:28,360 --> 00:15:32,040 man killing the world's poorest children is not a pretty one. 254 00:15:32,320 --> 00:15:36,920 Even Marco Rubio, the Secretary of State, testified to Congress 255 00:15:37,120 --> 00:15:41,120 that the death toll from these abrupt cuts was surely not 0. 256 00:15:41,480 --> 00:15:45,320 The cancellations were so haphazard that Dodges own 257 00:15:45,320 --> 00:15:49,440 website listed the details of over 3000 cancelled US aid 258 00:15:49,440 --> 00:15:53,360 contracts as simply unavailable for legal reasons. 259 00:15:53,760 --> 00:15:57,360 DOGE treated the agency less like a government department in 260 00:15:57,360 --> 00:16:00,640 need of reform and more like a distressed asset to be 261 00:16:00,640 --> 00:16:03,800 liquidated overnight. And while it may have saved 262 00:16:03,800 --> 00:16:09,520 roughly $45 billion on paper, or just 0.6% of federal spending, 263 00:16:09,760 --> 00:16:13,400 it could be argued that it cost the US significantly in soft 264 00:16:13,400 --> 00:16:17,680 power and global influence. By May, the administrative 265 00:16:17,680 --> 00:16:21,800 collapse of Dodge had bled into a bitter personal feud. 266 00:16:22,040 --> 00:16:25,600 The relationship between Trump and Musk disintegrated into a 267 00:16:25,600 --> 00:16:28,680 public brawl that would have been shocking if it weren't so 268 00:16:28,680 --> 00:16:32,680 perfectly on brand for both men. The end came with a visual 269 00:16:32,680 --> 00:16:36,600 metaphor so heavy-handed a scriptwriter would have rejected 270 00:16:36,600 --> 00:16:38,800 it. At his farewell event in the 271 00:16:38,800 --> 00:16:43,000 Oval Office on May 30th, Musk appeared sporting a visible 272 00:16:43,000 --> 00:16:45,920 black eye. When pressed by reporters, he 273 00:16:45,920 --> 00:16:50,000 claimed that his five year old son serial number had punched 274 00:16:50,000 --> 00:16:52,880 him in the face while they were horsing around. 275 00:16:53,200 --> 00:16:56,840 Now Musk was famous for bringing his son to the White House. 276 00:16:57,080 --> 00:17:00,160 The child was a fixture at high level meetings, often seen 277 00:17:00,160 --> 00:17:03,640 hiding behind the Resolute Desk while his father discussed 278 00:17:03,640 --> 00:17:07,160 gutting the civil service. But in hindsight, bringing a 279 00:17:07,160 --> 00:17:11,400 toddler to work every day may have been unwise given what Musk 280 00:17:11,400 --> 00:17:13,520 apparently believed about his bombs. 281 00:17:13,960 --> 00:17:17,400 Just days after leaving the White House, the bromance 282 00:17:17,400 --> 00:17:20,520 evaporated. Musk took to the Everything app 283 00:17:20,520 --> 00:17:24,680 to call Trump's new spending bill a disgusting abomination. 284 00:17:24,960 --> 00:17:28,079 When Trump retaliated by threatening to cut Musk's 285 00:17:28,079 --> 00:17:30,960 government subsidies, Musk went nuclear. 286 00:17:31,160 --> 00:17:34,840 On June the 5th, he tweeted. Time to drop the really big 287 00:17:34,840 --> 00:17:37,240 bomb. Real Donald Trump is in the 288 00:17:37,240 --> 00:17:39,800 Epstein files. That's the real reason they 289 00:17:39,800 --> 00:17:43,360 haven't been made public. Have a nice day, DJT. 290 00:17:43,960 --> 00:17:47,760 He deleted the tweet shortly after, but the damage was done. 291 00:17:48,000 --> 00:17:51,400 The man who had spent months as the president's right hand had 292 00:17:51,400 --> 00:17:54,360 effectively accused him of shielding a sex trafficking 293 00:17:54,360 --> 00:17:56,720 ring. It was a chaotic end to a 294 00:17:56,880 --> 00:18:00,520 chaotic tenure, leaving Musk with a black eye that was both 295 00:18:00,520 --> 00:18:04,400 literal and reputational. Before we critique the 296 00:18:04,400 --> 00:18:08,560 execution, we should clarify exactly what Doge was, or 297 00:18:08,560 --> 00:18:12,080 rather, what it wasn't. Despite the official sounding 298 00:18:12,080 --> 00:18:15,680 name and the presidential seal on the podium, the Department of 299 00:18:15,680 --> 00:18:19,080 Government Efficiency was not a real government department. 300 00:18:19,360 --> 00:18:23,520 Only Congress can create new departments, and Congress did no 301 00:18:23,520 --> 00:18:27,840 such thing legally. Doge was an advisory committee. 302 00:18:28,080 --> 00:18:32,600 This concept is nothing new. In 19 O 5, Theodore Roosevelt 303 00:18:32,600 --> 00:18:36,440 established the Keep Commission to reform the executive branch. 304 00:18:36,640 --> 00:18:41,720 In 1984, Ronald Reagan appointed the industrialist J Peter Grace 305 00:18:41,720 --> 00:18:45,480 to lead the Grace Commission, which famously concluded that 306 00:18:45,480 --> 00:18:49,040 1/3 of all income taxes were consumed by waste. 307 00:18:49,280 --> 00:18:52,880 Historically, these commissions follow a polite, predictable 308 00:18:52,880 --> 00:18:55,120 script. A group of business leaders 309 00:18:55,120 --> 00:18:57,320 spends a year writing a thick report. 310 00:18:57,600 --> 00:19:01,080 The president thanks them for their service, and the report is 311 00:19:01,080 --> 00:19:03,960 promptly filed in a basement, never to the be seen again. 312 00:19:04,240 --> 00:19:07,520 Musk, however, had little interest in writing reports. 313 00:19:07,800 --> 00:19:11,280 While the legal setup suggested he was merely A consultant 314 00:19:11,280 --> 00:19:14,920 offering advice, the reality on the ground was very different. 315 00:19:15,160 --> 00:19:17,920 Consultants usually produce PowerPoint decks. 316 00:19:18,080 --> 00:19:20,600 Musk produce termination notices. 317 00:19:21,080 --> 00:19:23,880 Through a combination of executive orders and sheer 318 00:19:23,880 --> 00:19:27,640 administrative bullying, Musk's team bypassed the usual 319 00:19:27,640 --> 00:19:30,880 separation of powers. They didn't just suggest that 320 00:19:30,880 --> 00:19:33,920 the IRS should be leaner, they fired the staff. 321 00:19:34,120 --> 00:19:37,880 They didn't just recommend that USA be reformed, they cancelled 322 00:19:37,880 --> 00:19:40,000 its contracts and locked the doors. 323 00:19:40,320 --> 00:19:43,520 In the past, the business approach to government meant 324 00:19:43,680 --> 00:19:46,360 bringing in ACEO to just look at the books. 325 00:19:46,600 --> 00:19:49,720 This time it meant bringing in a corporate Raider to strip the 326 00:19:49,720 --> 00:19:53,080 assets. Before we mourn the premature 327 00:19:53,080 --> 00:19:56,480 end of this experiment, we should probably ask if the 328 00:19:56,480 --> 00:19:59,960 mission was ever possible. To start with, the claim that 329 00:19:59,960 --> 00:20:04,080 DOGE could cut $2 trillion from the federal budget was not just 330 00:20:04,080 --> 00:20:07,240 ambitious, it was, to use a technical economic term, 331 00:20:07,400 --> 00:20:10,520 ridiculous. As we discussed in a prior video 332 00:20:10,520 --> 00:20:14,920 on this topic, the US federal budget is not a discretionary 333 00:20:14,920 --> 00:20:18,640 slush fund. Roughly 65% of all spending is 334 00:20:18,640 --> 00:20:22,560 mandatory, meaning that it is. Locked in by law for Social 335 00:20:22,560 --> 00:20:27,640 Security, Medicare and Medicaid. Another 10% is interest on the 336 00:20:27,640 --> 00:20:31,360 national debt, which has to be paid unless the US wants to 337 00:20:31,360 --> 00:20:34,360 default and trigger a global financial crisis. 338 00:20:34,920 --> 00:20:39,560 That leaves just 25% for discretionary spending, and half 339 00:20:39,560 --> 00:20:43,240 of that goes to the Pentagon. Since the Trump administration 340 00:20:43,240 --> 00:20:47,000 had vowed to increase defense spending, Musk was effectively 341 00:20:47,000 --> 00:20:51,480 promising to cut $2 trillion out of a non defense discretionary 342 00:20:51,480 --> 00:20:55,880 budget that only contained about $900 billion to begin with. 343 00:20:56,120 --> 00:20:59,520 He could have fired every park Ranger, air traffic controller, 344 00:20:59,520 --> 00:21:03,080 and FBI agent, shut down the Department of Justice, and 345 00:21:03,080 --> 00:21:06,120 turned off the lights in the White House, and he still would 346 00:21:06,120 --> 00:21:08,600 have missed his target by a trillion dollars. 347 00:21:08,840 --> 00:21:11,920 While Dodge does not appear to have made any significant 348 00:21:11,920 --> 00:21:15,840 savings for taxpayers, they may have still made perfect sense 349 00:21:15,840 --> 00:21:19,080 for Elon Musk. Critics warned from the start 350 00:21:19,280 --> 00:21:23,040 about the obvious conflict of interest inherent in appointing 351 00:21:23,040 --> 00:21:27,120 a major government contractor to oversee government spending. 352 00:21:27,440 --> 00:21:31,120 Senator Richard Blumenthal noted that Musk's companies were 353 00:21:31,120 --> 00:21:35,600 facing at least $2.37 billion in potential fines and 354 00:21:35,600 --> 00:21:39,360 investigations from the very federal agencies DOGE was 355 00:21:39,360 --> 00:21:42,920 targeting. DOGE pushed for deep cuts at the 356 00:21:42,920 --> 00:21:46,880 Federal Aviation Administration and the National Highway Traffic 357 00:21:46,880 --> 00:21:50,000 Safety Administration. These are the specific 358 00:21:50,000 --> 00:21:53,600 regulators responsible for overseeing SpaceX rocket 359 00:21:53,600 --> 00:21:56,800 launches and Tesla's self driving software. 360 00:21:57,080 --> 00:22:00,600 By cutting the budgets of these government watchdogs, Musk 361 00:22:00,600 --> 00:22:03,520 effectively removed the oversight that had been slowing 362 00:22:03,520 --> 00:22:07,320 down his own product testing. Then there's the matter of his 363 00:22:07,320 --> 00:22:09,960 other ventures. While Musk was slashing the 364 00:22:09,960 --> 00:22:13,880 budgets of rival government contractors, questions arose 365 00:22:13,880 --> 00:22:17,560 about how his own satellite Internet company, Starlink, 366 00:22:17,800 --> 00:22:20,480 seemed to navigate the chaos unscathed. 367 00:22:20,880 --> 00:22:24,640 Critics noted that while legacy providers faced the wood 368 00:22:24,640 --> 00:22:27,800 chipper, Musk's companies were positioned to pick up the 369 00:22:27,800 --> 00:22:32,240 pieces, with his team pushing to integrate private AI solutions, 370 00:22:32,520 --> 00:22:36,440 presumably modeled on his own technology, into the heart of 371 00:22:36,440 --> 00:22:39,560 the federal stack. It appears that in the rush to 372 00:22:39,560 --> 00:22:43,040 delete government waste, the department also managed to 373 00:22:43,040 --> 00:22:46,720 delete a significant amount of regulatory risk for its 374 00:22:46,720 --> 00:22:50,280 spiritual leader. Underlying the entire DOGE 375 00:22:50,280 --> 00:22:54,840 project was the idea that the US government is a uniquely swollen 376 00:22:54,840 --> 00:22:58,720 leviathan. But the data suggests otherwise. 377 00:22:58,920 --> 00:23:02,560 According to the International Labor Organization, the US 378 00:23:02,560 --> 00:23:07,360 employs roughly 64 public sector workers per thousand people. 379 00:23:07,640 --> 00:23:11,960 This is hardly gluttonous compared to Australia's 143 per 380 00:23:11,960 --> 00:23:16,200 1000 or the public sectors in the UK and Scandinavia. 381 00:23:16,680 --> 00:23:21,800 Interestingly, the US federal workforce actually shrank by 8% 382 00:23:22,000 --> 00:23:26,640 between 2008 and 2023 relative to the population. 383 00:23:27,040 --> 00:23:30,400 As the World Bank notes, government efficiency often 384 00:23:30,400 --> 00:23:34,480 correlates with better trained bureaucracies, not necessarily 385 00:23:34,480 --> 00:23:38,200 smaller ones. Singapore runs a very lean state 386 00:23:38,400 --> 00:23:42,040 not by firing experts, but by by paying them well to ensure 387 00:23:42,040 --> 00:23:45,880 competence. Doji's strategy of mass firings 388 00:23:46,120 --> 00:23:50,200 didn't move the US closer to the Singaporean model, it moved it 389 00:23:50,200 --> 00:23:55,000 closer to the Haitian 1 Possibly the most foolish thing that DOGE 390 00:23:55,000 --> 00:23:59,480 did was to send mass emails to staff offering paid redundancy. 391 00:23:59,760 --> 00:24:03,120 Such an offer will be accepted by the best workers who could 392 00:24:03,120 --> 00:24:06,720 easily find work elsewhere, leaving the government staffed 393 00:24:06,720 --> 00:24:10,160 by the people who have no other outside opportunities. 394 00:24:10,480 --> 00:24:14,160 Ultimately, the size of a government is a reflection of 395 00:24:14,160 --> 00:24:16,240 what its citizens expect from it. 396 00:24:16,600 --> 00:24:19,160 Different cultures have different views on this. 397 00:24:19,400 --> 00:24:24,440 In 1691, the English government raised less than 2% of GDP in 398 00:24:24,440 --> 00:24:27,360 taxes. That sounds appealing until you 399 00:24:27,360 --> 00:24:30,320 remember that the government also didn't manage a nuclear 400 00:24:30,320 --> 00:24:34,560 arsenal, a National Highway system, or air traffic control. 401 00:24:35,040 --> 00:24:38,920 As societies modernize, they tend to demand more from the 402 00:24:38,920 --> 00:24:41,400 state. It's entirely reasonable for a 403 00:24:41,400 --> 00:24:44,880 country to decide it wants a smaller government with a 404 00:24:44,880 --> 00:24:49,000 lighter tax burden, but that debate should be conducted 405 00:24:49,000 --> 00:24:51,560 honestly. If the goal is to reduce 406 00:24:51,560 --> 00:24:54,800 government spending significantly, politicians need 407 00:24:54,800 --> 00:24:58,640 to admit that this requires cutting services, benefits and 408 00:24:58,640 --> 00:25:01,080 protections. Pretending that the difference 409 00:25:01,080 --> 00:25:04,440 can be made-up solely by eliminating waste, fraud and 410 00:25:04,440 --> 00:25:08,560 abuse without touching the services people actually use is 411 00:25:08,560 --> 00:25:11,600 a fantasy. The real question for taxpayers 412 00:25:11,600 --> 00:25:15,200 is not simply how big the government is, but whether they 413 00:25:15,200 --> 00:25:17,920 feel they're getting value for their money or not. 414 00:25:18,560 --> 00:25:22,480 As I mentioned early on in the video, I updated the research 415 00:25:22,480 --> 00:25:25,720 done by The Economist in February, and when the fiscal 416 00:25:25,720 --> 00:25:30,240 year closed on September 30th, the scoreboard was unambiguous. 417 00:25:30,520 --> 00:25:37,400 Total federal outlays for 2025 reached $7.01 trillion, a 4% 418 00:25:37,400 --> 00:25:41,720 increase in government spending from the 6.75 trillion spent in 419 00:25:41,720 --> 00:25:45,440 2024. Despite all the chainsaw waving, 420 00:25:45,600 --> 00:25:49,280 the wall of receipts, and the Manhattan Project rhetoric, the 421 00:25:49,400 --> 00:25:53,320 US government had managed to spend more money this year than 422 00:25:53,320 --> 00:25:56,000 last. To the untrained eye, the start 423 00:25:56,000 --> 00:25:59,920 of fiscal year 2026 might have looked like a real breakthrough 424 00:26:00,120 --> 00:26:03,040 as federal spending collapsed in October. 425 00:26:03,400 --> 00:26:06,360 This, however, had nothing to do with DOGE. 426 00:26:06,560 --> 00:26:09,880 The decline was caused by a government shutdown that froze 427 00:26:09,880 --> 00:26:12,880 operations once the lights came back on. 428 00:26:13,040 --> 00:26:17,360 The spending didn't just return to normal, it surged as agencies 429 00:26:17,360 --> 00:26:21,280 paid back pay to furloughed workers and process delayed 430 00:26:21,280 --> 00:26:25,120 contracts. The November 2025 deficit spiked 431 00:26:25,320 --> 00:26:30,160 to $366 billion. And not the only person who did 432 00:26:30,160 --> 00:26:33,320 this sort of research. The Hamilton Project at the 433 00:26:33,320 --> 00:26:36,920 Brookings Institution built a daily tracker to monitor these 434 00:26:36,920 --> 00:26:40,880 flows, and their data confirms that there was no durable 435 00:26:40,880 --> 00:26:44,920 reduction in aggregate outlays attributable to Doge's actions. 436 00:26:45,200 --> 00:26:48,760 The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget went further, 437 00:26:48,960 --> 00:26:52,720 questioning whether the entire project was a distraction rather 438 00:26:52,720 --> 00:26:56,440 than an effective focus as spending continued to climb 439 00:26:56,440 --> 00:26:59,560 materially. Perhaps the most damning is the 440 00:26:59,560 --> 00:27:03,800 calculation of net cost. CBS Money Watch reported an 441 00:27:03,800 --> 00:27:07,760 estimate from the Partnership for Public Service suggesting 442 00:27:07,760 --> 00:27:10,720 that Doge's disruptions, including paid leave for 443 00:27:10,720 --> 00:27:14,160 suspended workers, the cost of rehiring during wrongfully 444 00:27:14,160 --> 00:27:18,320 terminated staff, and lost productivity, may have actually 445 00:27:18,320 --> 00:27:22,200 cost taxpayers roughly $135 billion. 446 00:27:22,800 --> 00:27:27,200 In the end, the Efficiency Dr. didn't just fail to save $2 447 00:27:27,200 --> 00:27:30,840 trillion, it may have finished deeply in the red. 448 00:27:31,720 --> 00:27:35,400 In his interview with Katie Miller, Musk attempted to frame 449 00:27:35,400 --> 00:27:39,440 the venture as having been somewhat successful, claiming 450 00:27:39,440 --> 00:27:43,560 that Dodge had identified $200 billion in zombie payments. 451 00:27:43,960 --> 00:27:47,360 But the Treasury's Ledger paints a very different picture. 452 00:27:47,520 --> 00:27:51,880 If DOGE truly stopped $200 billion of waste, those savings 453 00:27:51,880 --> 00:27:55,720 were immediately consumed and exceeded by new spending. 454 00:27:55,960 --> 00:28:00,240 To call a project that presided over a net increase in federal 455 00:28:00,240 --> 00:28:04,040 outlays somewhat successful is a bit like the captain of the 456 00:28:04,040 --> 00:28:08,320 Titanic describing his voyage as a partial success because the 457 00:28:08,320 --> 00:28:10,800 band played beautifully until the end. 458 00:28:11,160 --> 00:28:15,320 Perhaps the most revealing moment of the podcast came when 459 00:28:15,320 --> 00:28:18,520 Musk let his guard down. When asked if he would do it all 460 00:28:18,520 --> 00:28:22,240 over again, he replied. I don't think so, he added, 461 00:28:22,240 --> 00:28:25,440 almost wistfully. Instead of doing Doge, I would 462 00:28:25,440 --> 00:28:27,840 have basically worked on my companies. 463 00:28:28,320 --> 00:28:31,080 While Musk was playing shadow president and getting the 464 00:28:31,080 --> 00:28:34,360 president to pretend to like his cars on the White House lawn, 465 00:28:34,800 --> 00:28:37,720 everything's computer. Tesla stock was getting 466 00:28:37,720 --> 00:28:41,440 pummelled as the company ceded its crown as the world's largest 467 00:28:41,480 --> 00:28:46,960 EV maker to Chinese rival BYD. The Reuters report on Doge's 468 00:28:46,960 --> 00:28:50,960 disbandment noted that while most federal agencies faced 469 00:28:50,960 --> 00:28:54,720 strict headcount caps, exceptions were carved out for 470 00:28:54,720 --> 00:28:58,920 positions necessary to enforce immigration laws and protect 471 00:28:58,920 --> 00:29:02,400 public safety. This new spending, which does 472 00:29:02,400 --> 00:29:06,760 nothing to increase growth, is particularly painful when viewed 473 00:29:06,760 --> 00:29:09,440 against the backdrop of the national debt. 474 00:29:09,760 --> 00:29:13,760 As we've discussed in prior videos, the US national debt has 475 00:29:13,760 --> 00:29:17,840 expanded massively and is growing as a percentage of GDP. 476 00:29:18,160 --> 00:29:21,880 When the government runs an unbalanced budget, spending $7 477 00:29:21,880 --> 00:29:25,920 trillion while collecting far less in taxes, it has to borrow. 478 00:29:25,920 --> 00:29:29,560 The difference that borrowing comes out of cost. 479 00:29:29,840 --> 00:29:33,120 Interest payments on the national debt have surged to 480 00:29:33,120 --> 00:29:37,640 nearly $1 trillion per year. This interest expense is dead 481 00:29:37,640 --> 00:29:39,640 money. It doesn't buy aircraft 482 00:29:39,640 --> 00:29:42,200 carriers, pave roads, or provide healthcare. 483 00:29:42,400 --> 00:29:44,640 It's simply services. The past. 484 00:29:44,920 --> 00:29:49,000 By failing to cut the deficit and instead ramping up spending, 485 00:29:49,160 --> 00:29:52,840 the efficiency Dr. has ironically accelerated the one 486 00:29:52,840 --> 00:29:56,200 expense that no amount of efficiency can reduce the 487 00:29:56,200 --> 00:29:59,000 compounding interest on our own legacy. 488 00:29:59,680 --> 00:30:03,800 In the absence of spending cuts, the administration has pivoted 489 00:30:03,800 --> 00:30:06,880 to its favorite revenue raising tool, tariffs. 490 00:30:07,120 --> 00:30:12,040 The government collected $195 billion in custom duties in full 491 00:30:12,040 --> 00:30:16,160 year 2025, a massive increase from the previous year. 492 00:30:16,480 --> 00:30:19,800 Supporters claim that this windfall will pay down the 493 00:30:19,800 --> 00:30:23,080 national debt. The problem is that even with 494 00:30:23,080 --> 00:30:27,560 this historic surge, tariff revenue covers less than 3% of 495 00:30:27,560 --> 00:30:30,960 total federal spending. And worse still, the revenue 496 00:30:30,960 --> 00:30:34,640 stream may be temporary. The Supreme Court is currently 497 00:30:34,640 --> 00:30:38,040 hearing a challenge to the constitutionality of using 498 00:30:38,320 --> 00:30:41,480 emergency powers to impose these sweeping tariffs. 499 00:30:41,760 --> 00:30:45,560 During oral arguments in November, several justices 500 00:30:45,560 --> 00:30:49,160 appeared skeptical of the president's authority to bypass 501 00:30:49,160 --> 00:30:53,280 Congress on trade taxes. If the court rules against the 502 00:30:53,280 --> 00:30:56,960 administration, the Treasury could be forced to refund up to 503 00:30:56,960 --> 00:30:59,720 168 billion dollars to businesses. 504 00:30:59,960 --> 00:31:03,600 This would blow an even larger hole in the budget, leaving the 505 00:31:03,600 --> 00:31:07,280 government with higher spending, lower revenue, and a Manhattan 506 00:31:07,280 --> 00:31:10,480 Project that produced nothing but a puff of smoke. 507 00:31:11,120 --> 00:31:15,240 Perhaps the most frustrating aspect of the Doge failure is 508 00:31:15,240 --> 00:31:18,920 that a mechanism to cut waste and fraud already exists. 509 00:31:19,120 --> 00:31:23,560 And unlike Elon's chainsaw, it actually works. the United 510 00:31:23,560 --> 00:31:27,320 States has a long standing statute called the False Claims 511 00:31:27,320 --> 00:31:29,840 Act, which dates back to the Civil War. 512 00:31:30,120 --> 00:31:33,920 It allows private citizens, known as whistleblowers, to sue 513 00:31:33,920 --> 00:31:37,600 companies or individuals defrauding the government and 514 00:31:37,600 --> 00:31:41,000 crucially, to keep a portion of the recovered funds. 515 00:31:41,280 --> 00:31:45,320 This is the eat what you kill approach to regulation, and it 516 00:31:45,320 --> 00:31:48,360 appeals to free market principles far more than a 517 00:31:48,360 --> 00:31:51,000 centralized politburo of efficiencies. 518 00:31:51,000 --> 00:31:53,880 Ours. It aligns incentive perfectly. 519 00:31:54,160 --> 00:31:57,000 The more fraud you find, the more you get paid. 520 00:31:57,440 --> 00:32:01,760 Last year alone, this system quietly recovered huge sums. 521 00:32:02,040 --> 00:32:07,760 The SEC and IRS paid out nearly $379,000,000 to whistleblowers 522 00:32:07,960 --> 00:32:10,280 who flagged financial misconduct. 523 00:32:10,720 --> 00:32:14,480 This decentralized approach doesn't require big balls to 524 00:32:14,480 --> 00:32:16,480 insult civil servants on Twitter. 525 00:32:16,680 --> 00:32:19,440 It just requires a lawyer and a spreadsheet. 526 00:32:19,680 --> 00:32:24,040 But unlike DOGE, it's unglamorous legal and slow 527 00:32:24,600 --> 00:32:28,000 qualities that don't play well at a campaign rally. 528 00:32:31,000 --> 00:32:34,240 There is possibly a broader cultural lesson to be learned 529 00:32:34,240 --> 00:32:36,600 here. For the better part of a decade, 530 00:32:36,760 --> 00:32:40,240 markets and politics have been dominated by laws. 531 00:32:40,440 --> 00:32:44,840 The idea that irony, memes, and sheer audacity could override 532 00:32:44,840 --> 00:32:48,160 fundamentals. We saw it in Dogecoin, the 533 00:32:48,160 --> 00:32:50,880 cryptocurrency. We saw it in the meme stock 534 00:32:50,880 --> 00:32:54,040 mania, and we saw it in the creation of a government 535 00:32:54,040 --> 00:32:57,160 department named after a Shiba Inu meme. 536 00:32:57,440 --> 00:33:01,680 I think the finest name is is DOG the the Doge Department of 537 00:33:01,680 --> 00:33:04,840 Government efficiency. As the Financial Times columnist 538 00:33:04,840 --> 00:33:09,520 Jemima Kelly noted recently, the joke just isn't funny anymore. 539 00:33:09,680 --> 00:33:13,360 When the laws meet the bond market, the bond market usually 540 00:33:13,360 --> 00:33:16,120 wins. The 10 year treasury yield does 541 00:33:16,120 --> 00:33:20,040 not care about your meme game, it cares about the debt to GDP 542 00:33:20,040 --> 00:33:23,200 ratio and that ratio is not improving. 543 00:33:23,760 --> 00:33:28,120 In his final days, as the shadow efficiencies are, Musk was asked 544 00:33:28,120 --> 00:33:30,320 if the project could survive without him. 545 00:33:30,640 --> 00:33:34,720 He replied with a cone. Is Buddha needed for Buddhism? 546 00:33:35,160 --> 00:33:39,440 It is a lofty comparison, but perhaps a more fitting question 547 00:33:39,440 --> 00:33:42,920 for the bond vigilantes watching the US debt pile grow. 548 00:33:43,120 --> 00:33:46,520 Is this is a calculator needed for accounting? 549 00:33:47,080 --> 00:33:49,240 The answer, it turns out, is yes. 550 00:33:49,400 --> 00:33:53,240 And for now, the calculator says that despite all the memes, the 551 00:33:53,360 --> 00:33:57,000 US government is still spending $30 billion a day. 552 00:33:57,720 --> 00:34:00,360 Thanks for tuning into this week's podcast, with special 553 00:34:00,360 --> 00:34:03,760 thanks to our supporters on Patreon whose funding makes this 554 00:34:03,760 --> 00:34:06,320 all happen. Have a great week and talk to 555 00:34:06,320 --> 00:34:07,840 you again soon. Bye.