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Markets were on edge this week 
as Donald Trump's August 1st 

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deadline for trade negotiations 
on US tariffs finally ran out. 

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Trump has already announced 
tariffs on goods imported from 

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many of America's largest 
trading partners as trade 

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negotiators rushed to strike 
last minute deals or extensions.

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The deadline came more than 120 
days after Trump first announced

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his list of Liberation Day 
tariffs on imported goods back 

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on April 2nd. 
Despite delays, the Trump 

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administration now looks ready 
to roll out new tariff rates for

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the countries that didn't manage
to secure a deal before the 

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Friday deadline. 
White House Press Secretary 

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Caroline Leavitt announced that 
2/3 of the USS 18 major trading 

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partners already have a deal 
deal and that letters have been 

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sent to an additional 17 
nations. 

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The White House said that 
countries that have not struck a

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trade deal or have not received 
a letter with a new tariff raid 

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will hear from the Trump 
administration by midnight on 

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Friday. 
Taiwan, the world's most 

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important semiconductor 
exporter, was hit with a 20% 

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tariff. 
Tariffs were raised on Canada, 

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historic US ally and major 
trading partner, to 35%. 

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India was hit with a 25% tariff 
and Switzerland with 39%. 

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Trump said that he would not be 
extending the deadline this time

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around. 
Tweeting the August 1st deadline

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is the August 1st deadline. 
It stands strong and will not be

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extended. 
A big day for America on his 

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version of Twitter, which is 
called Truth Social. 

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Earlier this week, it was all in
capsule. 

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I was probably supposed to shout
that at you, but I won't. 

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On Thursday, he announced that 
he would delay higher tariffs on

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Mexico by 90 days. 
At midnight this Thursday, US 

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Customs and Border Protection 
began charging importers the new

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duties, which range from 10% to 
50%, with additional tariffs 

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being applied to certain 
industries like pharmaceutical 

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products, copper, steel and 
aluminium for most countries. 

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The Yale University Budget Lab 
announced on Monday that US as 

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consumers face an effective 
tariff rate of 18.2%, the 

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highest rate since 1934, which 
means that the average household

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will see additional costs of 
$2400 in 2025. 

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That analysis came out before 
the announcement of additional 

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tariffs on India and the 
announcement delaying higher 

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tariffs on Mexico. 
US and Chinese negotiators 

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agreed earlier this week to push
back the deadline for striking a

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deal after talks failed to find 
a resolution this week across 

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the many areas of dispute. 
Back in April, Trump had claimed

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to have done over 200 deals in 
an interview with Time magazine 

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and trade advisor Peter Navarro 
had said that 90 deals in 90 

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days was possible. 
The country has fallen far short

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of that with only eight deals in
120 days, including one with the

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27 member European Union. 
The UK was the first country to 

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strike a trade deal with Trump 
back in May, agreeing to a flat 

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10% tax which US buyers will pay
on most goods imported from the 

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UK. 
This was possibly the easiest 

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deal to strike for Trump due to 
the favorable pre-existing trade

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dynamics between the US and the 
UK, where Britain only ran a 

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very small trade surplus in 
goods with the United States. 

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And it would appear that Trump 
prioritizes goods over services,

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as it's 2025 trade policy agenda
explicitly calls for production 

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economy, emphasizing 
manufacturing, agriculture, and 

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energy as the backbone of 
American prosperity. 

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Britain, like the US, runs a 
trade deficit, meaning that it 

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imports more goods and services 
than it exports. 

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In fact, it runs the third 
largest trade deficit in the 

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world, behind only India and the
United States. 

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Within days of the deal being 
announced, the Financial Times 

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reported that China was upset 
that it had been structured to 

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squeeze Chinese products out of 
the British supply chain. 

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China's foreign minister said 
that it was a basic principle 

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that agreements between 
countries should not target 

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other nations. 
According to the FT, China has 

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warned other countries against 
signing trade deals with the US 

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that threaten Chinese interests.
The USUK trade deal was 

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described by President Trump as 
being full and comprehensive. 

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It kept in place the 10% tax on 
most British imports. 

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In particular, it specified that
cars imported from the UK would 

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face a 10% tariff in the United 
States, which is lower than the 

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15% rate that Americans will 
have to pay on cars imported 

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from the EU and Japan. 
The deal only applies to the 1st

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100,000 British cars imported 
per year, which is approximately

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the number of cars that 
Americans already buy from 

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Britain, and every vehicle sold 
above that quota will be hit 

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with a 25% tax, discouraging any
increase in sales. 

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The feature of this deal that 
upset China was that the tariff 

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relief for steel and cars bought
by Americans included conditions

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requiring the UK to promptly 
meet US demands on the security 

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of the supply chains of steel 
and aluminium products exported 

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to the United States. 
The Chinese worry that this 

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could mean that they could be 
excluded from supplying British 

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firms that sell to Americans. 
The British government pushed 

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back against suggestions that 
the trade deal could be damaging

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to China, saying that there was 
no such thing as a veto on 

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Chinese investment in the deal. 
A British government spokesman 

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told the BBC that the agreement 
with the US was in the national 

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interest to secure thousands of 
jobs across key sectors, protect

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British businesses and lay the 
groundwork for greater trade in 

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the future, adding that any 
external provisions in the 

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agreement were not designed to 
undermine mutually beneficial 

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economic relations with any 
third country. 

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This was widely interpreted as a
reference to British Steel, 

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which had been owned by Chinese 
Jinyi Group until earlier this 

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year. 
Although the UK government took 

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operational control of the 
company to prevent the closure 

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of its Gunther blast furnaces, 
Jinyi still remains the legal 

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owner. 
Under the terms of the deal, 

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steel from such facilities may 
not qualify for tariff relief 

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unless ownership is restructured
to meet US standards. 

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This approach reflects what 
might be a broader shift in U.S.

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trade policy under Trump. 
Tariffs are no longer just a 

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tool for protecting domestic 
industry. 

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They're being used as a 
mechanism for enforcing 

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geopolitical alignment. 
The UK deal in this sense, might

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be a prototype for a new kind of
trade agreement when that 

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rewards compliance with US 
strategic objectives and 

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penalizes economic entanglement 
with China. 

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Beijing's reaction to the UK 
deal was swift and pointed. 

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Chinese officials warned other 
countries that they deal with 

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against signing agreements with 
the US that threaten Chinese 

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interests. 
And China accelerated its 

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efforts to remove foreign 
components from domestic supply 

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chains, the goal being to 
insulate China from future trade

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disruptions and reduce 
dependency on foreign technology

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and input. 
This strategy broadly aligns 

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with China's long standing dual 
circulation policy, which aims 

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to boost domestic consumption 
and technological 

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self-sufficiency while 
maintaining selective engagement

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with global markets. 
The UKUS deal and others like it

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have possibly reinforced 
Beijing's determination to 

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reduce its risk of being 
pressured by foreign 

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governments. 
China has also been responding 

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diplomatically to US pressure by
stepping up engagement with 

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countries in Southeast Asia, the
Global South and within the 

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BRICS block, offering 
alternative trade and investment

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partnerships. 
At the same time, it's continued

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trade talks with the US, 
resulting in a 90 day truce in 

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May that temporarily reduced 
tariffs on Chinese goods from as

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high as 145% to around 40%. 
That truce How? 

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Whoever is fragile, Trump has 
tied further tariff reductions 

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to cooperation on unrelated 
issues, making it difficult to 

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know that when a deal is struck,
will it be stuck to or 

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renegotiated again on a whim? 
This transactional approach has 

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left Beijing very wary. 
Chinese officials have indicated

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that they'll raise concerns 
directly with the UK and US, but

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are avoiding escalation, 
possibly to preserve room for 

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negotiation or to avoid 
disruption ahead of a potential 

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Trump XI summit later this year.
While other Asian countries may 

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be nervous of China, they see 
the Chinese companies will still

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invest in their countries while 
American businesses are 

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retrenching to North America. 
The E US agreement with 

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Washington, finalized a few days
ago, was broader in scope. 

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It imposed a 15% tariff on 
roughly 70% of EU exports to the

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US, including pharmaceutical 
semiconductors in cars. 

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In exchange, the EU pledged to 
buy $750 billion in US energy 

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and invest $600 billion in 
American industry. 

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Steel and aluminium exports were
capped under a quota system 

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system, with excess volumes 
facing a 50% tariff. 

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In return, the EU decided to put
no tariffs on US goods. 

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The one sided nature of this 
deal is somewhat surprising as 

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the European and US economies 
are fairly similar in size and 

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the trade relationships are 
interrelated on both directions.

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Ben Hall argued in the Unhedged 
podcast that the asymmetry of 

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the US EU trade deal stems from 
the structural and philosophical

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nature of the European Union 
itself. 

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The EU was founded to promote 
free trade and market 

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liberalisation amongst its 
member states, making it 

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inherently reluctant to impose 
tariffs or engage in aggressive 

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trade retaliation. 
This foundational ethos, 

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combined with the E us 
fragmented decision making 

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process, where divergent 
national interests often hinder 

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unified action, left Europe 
unable to respond decisively to 

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the protectionist stance of the 
United States. 

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As a result, the EU accepted A1 
sided deal, prioritizing 

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internal unity and stability 
over economic leverage. 

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Critics in Paris in Berlin were 
quick to describe the deal as 

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capitulation. 
The FTS editorial board 

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described it as rubber stamping 
the US president's New World 

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Order, arguing that Europe had 
validated Trump's bullying trade

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agenda. 
The Economist offered a more 

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pragmatic take, arguing that the
EU had secured parity with 

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Japan's terms and retained its 
regulatory autonomy over digital

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services. 
The real problem, it argued, 

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lies in Europe's internal 
frictions, not in the asymmetry 

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of the deal. 
The EU's negotiating position 

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was weakened by internal 
divisions. 

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France, which like the US runs a
persistent trade deficit, pushed

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back against agricultural 
concessions. 

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Germany, which runs a trade 
surplus, sought to protect its 

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car industry. 
Eastern European states, who are

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most concerned with security 
guarantees, were reluctant to 

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challenge Washington at all. 
The result was a fragmented 

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front that left Brussels 
unwilling to push hard. 

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The corporate response to 
Trump's tariff regime has been 

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mixed. 
Ford reported a surprise 

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quarterly loss in July, citing 
$800 million in tariff related 

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costs and warning of a $3 
billion hit for the year. 

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BMW, in contrast, has downplayed
the fallout with a major US 

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production base in South 
Carolina. 

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It's been partially shielded 
from the worst effects. 

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Apple, the company that's been 
most heavily hit by Trump's 

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trade and tariff agenda, lost 
almost $700 billion in market 

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cap since the Liberation Day 
announcement, posted blockbuster

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quarterly earnings this week. 
The company's CFO said there had

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been some evidence that sales 
were boosted by US customers 

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buying early to get ahead of US 
tariffs earlier in the quarter. 

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Other sectors are also feeling 
the strain. 

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Semiconductor firms have warned 
that the new tariffs could 

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disrupt global supply chains 
already under pressure from 

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export controls and geopolitical
tensions. 

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Pharmaceutical companies, many 
of which rely on Chinese active 

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ingredients, are reassessing 
sourcing strategies. 

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Trade associations have 
expressed concern about the lack

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of clarity in some deals. 
In several cases, tariff relief 

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is tied to opaque national 
security reviews, leaving firms 

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uncertain about compliance. 
Big businesses are delaying 

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their investment decisions while
they wait for guidance on how 

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the new rules will be enforced. 
While the Trump administration 

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has touted a flurry of new trade
deals, legal experts and 

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lawmakers argue that these are 
not actually real trade 

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agreements. 
Under the US Constitution, only 

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Congress has the authority to 
regulate commerce with foreign 

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nations and to approve binding 
trade agreements. 

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Instead, the administration has 
relied on executive agreements 

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and emergency powers, 
particularly the International 

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Emergency Economic Powers Act, 
to unilaterally impose tariffs 

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and negotiate tariff 
adjustments. 

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These arrangements, critics 
argue, lack legal standing and 

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bypass the legislative process. 
Senator Ron Wyden, the ranking 

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member of the Senate Finance 
Committee, issued A rebuke last 

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month in a letter to U.S. trade 
Representative Jameson Greer, 

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saying the Constitution provides
Congress with sole authority to 

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lay and collect duties and to 
regulate commerce with foreign 

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nations. 
The president lacks the 

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authority to enter into binding 
trade agreements absent approval

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from Congress. 
He urged the administration to 

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respect Congress's 
constitutional authority over 

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trade and power to write U.S. 
law, warning that continued 

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circumvention could provoke 
legal challenges and undermine 

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00:15:49,280 --> 00:15:51,840
the legitimacy of U.S. trade 
policy. 

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00:15:51,960 --> 00:15:55,840
While the Trump administration 
has framed its recent executive 

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arrangements as trade deals, 
many of America's trading 

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00:15:59,800 --> 00:16:03,720
partners are still treating them
as provisional and politically 

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00:16:03,720 --> 00:16:06,760
contingent, rather than as 
binding international 

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00:16:06,760 --> 00:16:10,080
agreements. 
Countries like the UK, Japan and

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00:16:10,080 --> 00:16:14,280
Vietnam have entered into what 
the White House calls framework 

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00:16:14,280 --> 00:16:18,400
agreements, or tariff 
understandings, but these are 

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00:16:18,400 --> 00:16:21,280
not treaties ratified by 
legislators. 

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00:16:21,440 --> 00:16:25,400
Instead, they are temporary 
arrangements negotiated under 

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00:16:25,400 --> 00:16:29,680
pressure, often in exchange for 
reduced tariffs or exemptions 

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00:16:29,680 --> 00:16:33,960
from broader US measures. 
European officials have been 

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00:16:33,960 --> 00:16:37,600
particularly cautious. 
A senior EU trade official, 

250
00:16:37,600 --> 00:16:42,200
speaking anonymously, described 
the July 2025 agreement as a 

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00:16:42,200 --> 00:16:45,760
tactical pause, not a strategic 
settlement. 

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00:16:45,960 --> 00:16:49,640
Similarly, Japan's Ministry of 
Economy, Trade and Industry 

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00:16:49,800 --> 00:16:53,560
issued a statement noting that 
it's agreement with the US 

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00:16:53,760 --> 00:16:57,920
remains subject to further 
negotiation and domestic review.

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00:16:58,560 --> 00:17:03,000
This ambiguity reflects a 
broader concern that these deals

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00:17:03,000 --> 00:17:07,599
could be reversed or invalidated
by a change in Trump's mood by 

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00:17:07,720 --> 00:17:10,880
US courts or by a future 
administration. 

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00:17:11,240 --> 00:17:14,880
A federal appeals court is 
currently reviewing the legality

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00:17:14,880 --> 00:17:18,480
of Trump's use of emergency 
powers to impose sweeping 

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00:17:18,480 --> 00:17:22,720
tariffs, with analysts warning 
that the deals may ultimately be

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00:17:22,720 --> 00:17:26,480
ruled illegal. 
In effect, many countries are 

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00:17:26,480 --> 00:17:30,040
hedging their bets, accepting 
temporary agreements while 

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00:17:30,040 --> 00:17:33,600
preparing for further 
volatility, as one trade lawyer 

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00:17:33,600 --> 00:17:36,160
told CNN. 
These aren't trade deals, 

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00:17:36,360 --> 00:17:40,320
they're ceasefires. 
The inflationary consequences of

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00:17:40,320 --> 00:17:42,880
Trump's tariffs are beginning to
surface. 

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00:17:43,080 --> 00:17:46,320
While the US administration 
keeps claiming that other 

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00:17:46,320 --> 00:17:50,040
countries pay these tariffs, 
that's just not how they work. 

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00:17:50,440 --> 00:17:53,680
The fact is, the European Union 
is the monster deal. 

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00:17:53,920 --> 00:17:55,920
President Trump did that deal 
yesterday. 

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00:17:55,920 --> 00:17:58,360
We were all together in 
Scotland. 

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00:17:58,360 --> 00:18:00,920
We got the deal done. 
So we hear how it goes. 

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00:18:01,120 --> 00:18:06,160
The European Union is going to 
pay 15% and they sell US $600 

274
00:18:06,160 --> 00:18:09,880
billion worth of goods. 
That's $90 billion for America. 

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00:18:10,280 --> 00:18:14,040
The tariffs push up the price of
imported goods for American 

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00:18:14,040 --> 00:18:18,400
consumers and can be expected to
hurt foreign exporters as the 

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00:18:18,400 --> 00:18:21,200
higher prices will likely lead 
to lower sales. 

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00:18:21,440 --> 00:18:26,560
But Americans do pay this tax. 
Fed Chair Jay Powell, who was 

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00:18:26,560 --> 00:18:30,360
nominated by Donald Trump in 
2018, has resisted the 

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00:18:30,360 --> 00:18:33,080
president's calls for aggressive
rate cuts. 

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00:18:33,360 --> 00:18:37,040
Powell cited uncertainty over 
the inflationary impact of 

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00:18:37,040 --> 00:18:41,720
tariffs, many of which exceed 
the 10% threshold economists had

283
00:18:41,720 --> 00:18:46,440
assumed would be the ceiling. 
Two Fed governors dissented from

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00:18:46,440 --> 00:18:50,080
the decision not to cut rates, 
marking the first such split 

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00:18:50,080 --> 00:18:53,800
since 1993. 
Markets interpreted Powell 

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00:18:53,800 --> 00:18:58,120
stands as hawkish, with short 
term Treasury yields rising and 

287
00:18:58,120 --> 00:19:01,200
the dollar rallying. 
Analysts at JP Morgan and 

288
00:19:01,200 --> 00:19:04,960
Citigroup have warned that 
consumer spending could soften 

289
00:19:04,960 --> 00:19:08,920
further in the second-half of 
the year as businesses pass on 

290
00:19:08,920 --> 00:19:13,760
higher input costs. 
The inflationary impact is not 

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00:19:13,760 --> 00:19:17,720
limited to the US either. 
European central banks are also 

292
00:19:17,720 --> 00:19:21,440
monitoring the situation 
closely, with the ECB warning 

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00:19:21,560 --> 00:19:25,440
that higher US tariffs could 
spill over into global prices. 

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00:19:25,800 --> 00:19:29,720
For now, the Fed is holding its 
ground, but the pressure is 

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00:19:29,720 --> 00:19:33,000
mounting. 
One of the questions that must 

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00:19:33,000 --> 00:19:37,280
be asked is what is Trump's 
overall goal with these tariffs?

297
00:19:37,560 --> 00:19:41,600
Is he hoping to strike deals or 
hoping to use tariffs to raise 

298
00:19:41,600 --> 00:19:44,240
revenue? 
The answer might be both. 

299
00:19:44,600 --> 00:19:48,440
Trump has framed each agreement 
as a victory for American 

300
00:19:48,440 --> 00:19:52,160
workers, but the deals also 
serve a fiscal function. 

301
00:19:52,400 --> 00:19:55,840
Tariffs now generate 10s of 
billions of dollars in revenue, 

302
00:19:56,080 --> 00:19:59,040
effectively acting as a tax on 
imports. 

303
00:19:59,320 --> 00:20:02,720
The deals are structured, not. 
Not just to rebalance trade 

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00:20:02,720 --> 00:20:07,080
flows, but to enforce a new 
geopolitical alignment, one in 

305
00:20:07,080 --> 00:20:11,600
which access to U.S. markets may
be contingents on distancing 

306
00:20:11,600 --> 00:20:15,640
yourself from China. 
Trump's tariff policy has never 

307
00:20:15,640 --> 00:20:18,840
been solely about correcting 
trade imbalances. 

308
00:20:19,040 --> 00:20:22,760
While his rhetoric often invokes
the language of economic 

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00:20:22,760 --> 00:20:27,120
nationalism, protecting American
jobs, reviving domestic 

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00:20:27,120 --> 00:20:31,440
manufacturing, the pattern of 
his actions suggests A broader, 

311
00:20:31,440 --> 00:20:33,800
more coercive use of trade 
tools. 

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00:20:34,080 --> 00:20:37,960
The tariffs on Mexico and Canada
were widely seen as a 

313
00:20:37,960 --> 00:20:41,840
demonstration of power rather 
than a response to specific 

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00:20:41,840 --> 00:20:46,280
economic grievances. 
Nowhere is this clearer than in 

315
00:20:46,280 --> 00:20:49,960
Trump's move against Brazil. 
The administration announced a 

316
00:20:49,960 --> 00:20:53,960
50% tariff on Brazilian 
aluminium and agricultural 

317
00:20:53,960 --> 00:20:58,000
exports, not in response to 
trade practices, but as 

318
00:20:58,000 --> 00:21:02,240
retaliation for Brazil's 
prosecution of former President 

319
00:21:02,400 --> 00:21:06,120
Jair Bolsonaro. 
Trump denounced the Brazilian 

320
00:21:06,120 --> 00:21:10,440
legal proceedings as politically
motivated and accused Brazil's 

321
00:21:10,440 --> 00:21:13,360
judiciary of suppressing free 
speech. 

322
00:21:13,640 --> 00:21:17,600
This episode underscores how 
tariffs under Trump have become 

323
00:21:17,600 --> 00:21:21,840
instruments of ideological 
alignment and personal loyalty, 

324
00:21:22,040 --> 00:21:24,960
rather than just as tools of 
economic policy. 

325
00:21:25,440 --> 00:21:29,200
Trump's approach has significant
implications for the global 

326
00:21:29,200 --> 00:21:32,880
trading system. 
It undermines the WT OS most 

327
00:21:32,880 --> 00:21:37,120
Favored nation principle, which 
requires countries to treat all 

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00:21:37,120 --> 00:21:40,360
trading partners equally and 
avoid discrimination. 

329
00:21:40,680 --> 00:21:44,360
By offering preferential terms 
to allies who accept US 

330
00:21:44,360 --> 00:21:48,880
conditions and penalizing those 
who don't, Trump is replacing 

331
00:21:49,000 --> 00:21:53,320
multilateralism with a confusing
array of bilateral deals. 

332
00:21:53,840 --> 00:21:57,880
While tariffs are often framed 
as tools of trade policy, they 

333
00:21:57,880 --> 00:22:00,400
also function as a form of 
taxation. 

334
00:22:00,640 --> 00:22:04,280
According to estimates from Yale
Budget Lab, the US is now 

335
00:22:04,280 --> 00:22:08,160
collecting tariffs on nearly 
half of all imports and bringing

336
00:22:08,160 --> 00:22:11,200
in 10s of billions of dollars in
revenue annually. 

337
00:22:11,600 --> 00:22:15,280
A government can, of course, 
bring in tax revenue however it 

338
00:22:15,280 --> 00:22:19,400
wants, and Trump has paired 
sweeping income tax cuts with 

339
00:22:19,400 --> 00:22:23,080
these tariffs, effectively 
shifting part of the federal 

340
00:22:23,080 --> 00:22:27,440
revenue burden from domestic 
earners to consumers of imported

341
00:22:27,440 --> 00:22:30,200
goods. 
This raises the question of 

342
00:22:30,200 --> 00:22:33,760
whether this is an efficient way
to collect revenue or not. 

343
00:22:34,040 --> 00:22:38,640
Economists generally argue the 
tariffs are a distortionary and 

344
00:22:38,640 --> 00:22:43,120
regressive form of taxation, 
raising price for consumers and 

345
00:22:43,120 --> 00:22:46,560
disrupting supply chains 
compared to more transparent 

346
00:22:46,560 --> 00:22:50,840
mechanisms like income tax. 
Yet for Trump, tariffs offer a 

347
00:22:50,840 --> 00:22:55,000
politically potent blend of 
revenue generation and national 

348
00:22:55,000 --> 00:22:58,080
signaling. 
Trump's tariff blitz is an 

349
00:22:58,080 --> 00:23:02,080
attempt to reorder global trade 
around American leverage. 

350
00:23:02,280 --> 00:23:06,600
America's allies have been drawn
into a new system of conditional

351
00:23:06,600 --> 00:23:10,880
market access, where tariff 
rates are tied to compliance 

352
00:23:10,880 --> 00:23:14,840
with US strategic objectives. 
China, meanwhile, is 

353
00:23:14,840 --> 00:23:18,560
recalibrating its supply chains 
and diplomatic posture and 

354
00:23:18,560 --> 00:23:22,560
response. 
For businesses, the message is 

355
00:23:22,560 --> 00:23:25,080
clear. 
The error of frictionless global

356
00:23:25,080 --> 00:23:29,560
trade is over, supply chains are
being redrawn, investment 

357
00:23:29,560 --> 00:23:32,840
decisions are being delayed, and
the cost of doing business 

358
00:23:32,840 --> 00:23:36,800
across borders is rising. 
It's not at all obvious that 

359
00:23:36,800 --> 00:23:39,200
these deals are set in stone, 
either. 

360
00:23:39,400 --> 00:23:43,520
They might well be renegotiated 
constantly in the coming years. 

361
00:23:44,160 --> 00:23:47,680
Well, something did need to be 
done about America's persistent 

362
00:23:47,680 --> 00:23:51,480
trade imbalances, and there are 
good arguments for moving 

363
00:23:51,480 --> 00:23:54,760
strategically important 
manufacturing onshore. 

364
00:23:55,120 --> 00:23:58,880
The question remains whether the
current approach, marked by 

365
00:23:58,880 --> 00:24:03,120
sweeping and frequently shifting
tariffs, is the right one. 

366
00:24:03,440 --> 00:24:07,120
Tariffs can raise revenue, and 
Trump has used them to offset 

367
00:24:07,120 --> 00:24:10,360
income tax cuts. 
But they are a very blunt 

368
00:24:10,360 --> 00:24:13,320
instrument. 
They distort prices, disrupt 

369
00:24:13,320 --> 00:24:16,960
supply chains and create 
uncertainty for businesses and 

370
00:24:16,960 --> 00:24:21,360
consumers alike. 
Imported goods often spend 45 

371
00:24:21,360 --> 00:24:25,320
days at sea before reaching US 
ports, where they're taxed. 

372
00:24:25,520 --> 00:24:29,560
And with tariff rates changing 
unpredictably, importers are 

373
00:24:29,560 --> 00:24:33,760
left guessing at final costs, 
undermining planning and 

374
00:24:33,760 --> 00:24:37,280
investment. 
On top of that, it's far from 

375
00:24:37,280 --> 00:24:41,120
clear that tariffs will achieve 
their stated goal of reviving 

376
00:24:41,120 --> 00:24:45,160
American manufacturing. 
China's manufacturing workforce 

377
00:24:45,160 --> 00:24:50,720
alone numbers over 220 million 
people, more than the entire US 

378
00:24:50,720 --> 00:24:53,680
labor force. 
And with American unemployment 

379
00:24:53,680 --> 00:24:57,800
near historic lows, there's 
limited slack to absorb large 

380
00:24:57,800 --> 00:25:00,920
scale reassuring. 
As Robert Armstrong rightly 

381
00:25:00,920 --> 00:25:03,920
observed in a recent podcast 
which are linked to in the 

382
00:25:03,920 --> 00:25:08,560
description, history suggests 
that protectionism tends to lead

383
00:25:08,760 --> 00:25:12,080
to lower productivity and 
stifles innovation. 

384
00:25:12,240 --> 00:25:16,560
It invites rule bending and rent
seeking rather than competition 

385
00:25:16,560 --> 00:25:19,440
and excellence. 
If the goal is to strengthen the

386
00:25:19,520 --> 00:25:24,040
US economy, then the tools must 
be chosen with care and wielded 

387
00:25:24,160 --> 00:25:27,680
with a clear understanding of 
their long term consequences. 

388
00:25:28,160 --> 00:25:31,240
Thanks for tuning into this 
week's podcast, with a special 

389
00:25:31,240 --> 00:25:35,080
thanks to my supporters on 
Patreon whose donations make it 

390
00:25:35,080 --> 00:25:37,400
all happen. 
If you'd like to support the 

391
00:25:37,400 --> 00:25:40,000
channel, I'll leave a link in 
the show note. 

392
00:25:40,160 --> 00:25:42,720
Have a great week and talk to 
you again soon. 

393
00:25:42,880 --> 00:25:43,240
Bye.