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Hello and welcome, you are 
listening to Patrick boil on 

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finance a podcast, exploring 
ideas, from quantitative Finance

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00:00:08,300 --> 00:00:11,600
examining events occurring in 
markets right now and financial 

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history to see what lessons can 
be taken away including 

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interviews with some of the most
interesting people in the world 

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of Finance to learn more about 
the podcast visit on finance 

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dot-org. 
Look my mom. 

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Always told me if you can't. 
Say something, nice, say nothing

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at all. 
And for that reason, I try not 

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to say much about Credit Suisse 
on my channel. 

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But equally, I find when I look 
at my old videos, I do seem to 

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keep mentioning them and I'm not
always nice this morning. 

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I realized that my Mom stole 
that expression from the Disney 

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film Bambi. 
She just corrected the grammar a

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little bit. 
And I'm not sure that I should 

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go through life following the 
moral teachings of an animated 

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rabbit. 
So I suppose we should once 

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again discuss the goings-on at 
Credit. 

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Suisse now, most of you who 
don't live in California, 

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probably first heard of Silicon 
Valley Bank last week when 

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everything fell apart, but I'm 
sure you're familiar with 

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Credit. 
Suisse, it's a big firm. 

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Last time I checked it was the 
eighth largest publicly listed 

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Bank in the world by market cap.
Oh, Hold on, it's a while since 

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I checked and it seems to have 
lost around a hundred billion 

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dollars in market cap over the 
last 15 years, which is bad. 

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And it's actually the 155th 
largest bank in the world today.

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So, yeah, it's around the size 
of Webster, Financial of 

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Stamford Connecticut, which I'm 
sure is a fine institution, 

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okay. 
I can tell from your confused, 

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look, that not all of. 
You have heard of Webster, 

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Financial of Stamford, 
Connecticut, Well, what else is 

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there Crocs? 
You know, those rubber clogs 

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Credit Suisse is a bit smaller 
than Crocs the company that 

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makes those shoes. 
So, yeah, Credit Suisse. 

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Maybe they could diversify into 
the flip-flop industry and 

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eventually be bigger than Crocs,
who knows? 

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Anyhow. 
It hasn't been a great week for 

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Credit. 
Suisse its biggest investor was 

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asked earlier this week if he 
would buy more stock in the 

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bank. 
I upload a journalist and he 

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replied, absolutely not. 
Here's the clip. 

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And the answer is absolutely not
for many reasons. 

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I'll side the simplest reason, 
which is Regulatory and 

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statuary. 
We now, own 9.8 percent of the 

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bank, if we go above 10%, all 
kinds of new rules kick in. 

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Now, I think if he had said, I'd
love to, but I'm restricted by 

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various regulations from doing 
so. 

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Things, might have gone a little
bit better. 

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Lutely not was absolutely, not 
the best thing to say, at a 

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time. 
When people are eyeing banks 

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with suspicion, so that wording 
caused some Jitters and the 

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stock price fell as much as 
Twenty Eight percent in the 

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biggest one-day sell-off in the 
stock on record leaving it down 

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more than 75 percent. 
Over the last year, it's bonds 

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fell to levels that signal 
financial distress which 

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Securities do in 2026 dropping 
by 70 cents on the dollar, the 

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move sparked, a sell-off in both
European and US Bank. 

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Stocks. 
As investors were already on 

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edge due to the bank runs last 
week in the United States. 

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Now, I'm not sure if it's true 
but I'm hearing the rumor that 

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David jamaat and Jason have 
invited. 

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Amar the big Saudi investor to 
join the All In podcast as 

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sparking Bank runs has become 
their new thing. 

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Now that no one's interested in.
Facts or blitzscale startups 

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anymore. 
So Credit Suisse bounce back 

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yesterday after receiving a 
fifty four billion dollar loan 

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from the Swiss Central Bank and 
instantly announcing plans to 

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buy back about three billion 
dollars worth of their dead to 

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boost liquidity and calm 
investors so far. 

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There's been no mention of 
expanding into the horrible 

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Footwear Market. 
I did mock up this clog in 

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Photoshop for Them to try and 
help out. 

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I'm not that good at Photoshop 
but I just figured that it might

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be helpful. 
Now, the Swiss National Bank act

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giving this credit line to 
Credit, Suisse obviously 

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indicates a few things firstly 
that there's no need for a run 

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on the bank as there will be 
enough money for all depositors.

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Secondly, it signals that the 
Swiss National Bank and swiss 

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Regulators have examined, the 
bank and the fact that they're 

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willing to make this loan 
indicates that they I think that

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things are okay at Credit Suisse
and thirdly if Credit Suisse can

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buy back a lot of its debt at a 
discount. 

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This will show us a profit in 
their accounts for all its 

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candles and mistakes. 
Credit Suisse did have a strong 

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and liquid balance sheet as of 
Wednesday. 

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Now we've seen a few big issues 
with banks over the last week. 

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The most notable ones being 
Silicon Valley Bank and Credit. 

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Suisse these crises are very 
different to each But they are 

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still somewhat linked. 
Silicon Valley Banks. 

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Failure can mostly be explained 
by their failure to properly. 

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Manage their interest rate risk.
Credit Suisse is in a very 

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different position partially 
because it's classified as a, 

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global systemically important 
Banks, and it's subject to tough

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liquidity rules Capital rules 
and stress tests which as VB was

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exempt from, but all of the 
Prudential banking rules might 

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have Event a Credit Suisse from 
the financial problems that 

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Silicon Valley Bank succumb to 
but Credit. 

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Suisse has instead been plagued 
by repeated scandals from spying

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on a former employee. 
A criminal conviction for 

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allowing drug dealers to launder
money massive leak of client 

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data. 
To the media are key goes green.

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Sill, Mozambique tuna, bonds, 
the list is too long. 

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You would maybe even think that 
this willingness to break laws 

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and skirt regulations. 
Add to the prophets at Credit 

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Suisse but no they've managed to
be involved in every Scandal and

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always lose money. 
On a serious note though. 

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These scandals show systemic 
failures in risk management at 

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the farm which destroyed the 
bank's reputation and ultimately

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hit the firm's Bottom Line 
Credit Suisse released their 

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annual report on Tuesday. 
Announcing in it that management

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did not design and maintain an 
effective. 

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Risk assessment process to 
identify and analyze the risk of

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material misstatement in its 
financial statement. 

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Going on to say that it's full 
year 2022, results were 

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unaffected by this. 
So while the situations are very

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different at Silicon Valley bank
and credit Suite, they're both 

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huge failures of risk 
management. 

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The loss of reputation at Credit
Suisse over the years has led to

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an exodus of their most talented
staff. 

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Off the best Bankers, don't want
to walk around with credit Suite

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printed on their business card. 
It doesn't help to attract 

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business and it does nothing for
their resumes. 

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The bad reputation will have 
equally made it more difficult 

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to attract any new business. 
Why would someone choose to deal

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with Credit? 
Suisse, when there are other 

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reputable banks that they could 
do business with wealth 

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management, customers appear to 
have lost fade in The Firm to 

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the wealth management business. 
Business suffered from over a 

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hundred million dollars in 
outflows in the final quarter of

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2022. 
The actions of the Swiss 

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National Bank mean, the disaster
has been averted for the time 

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being but Credit, Suisse is 
possibly still critically 

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wounded their bond slid further.
Yesterday, one of their dollar 

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bonds maturing in 2027, gave up 
its gains to trade down almost 

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five percent on the day to 66 
cents on the dollar and Their 

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dollar Bond maturing in 2028 
sled 13 percent to just below 64

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cents. 
These Bond, declines came 

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despite a rebound in the bank 
shares on Thursday, prices below

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70 cents on the dollar are 
generally considered to be a 

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marker of distress, the same 
bonds had been trading in the 

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80s and 90s respectively as 
recently as Monday this week, 

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some of the share price recovery
was possibly driven by Sean. 

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Recovering as the short thesis 
is a lot weaker now that the 

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Swiss National Bank is back 
stopping the firm. 

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There are a number of reasons to
believe that the European 

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banking system is in much better
shape to whether the stresses of

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the current banking environment 
than the u.s. regional Banks of 

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similar size as Don Davies of 
front-line analysts. 

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Argues, in the Ft, this is not 
because European banks are very 

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good. 
It's precisely because they 

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Historically been quite bad, a 
regulatory filing published by 

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the French Bank. 
BNP power bar on Tuesday, shows 

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that its profit and loss 
account, has very little 

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sensitivity to interest rate 
movement, the Spanish Bank BBVA.

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As another example, has hardly 
any sensitivity of its 

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shareholder funds to interest 
rate, as Davies points out 

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practically every banking 
regulation, in existence, at a 

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time when things went badly 
wrong and Europe, spent a decade

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toughening up banking 
regulation, because it went 

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through a rolling multi-year, 
Euro crisis, the European 

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Regulators. 
Have a detailed set of standards

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for testing interest rate risk 
with the idea that they'll be 

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applied to every significant 
Bank in Europe, unrealized 

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losses are not ignored under 
this regime and the global basil

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standards on stable funding. 
Are applied across the entire 

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banking sector. 
This is quite different to the 

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regulator's applied to Community
Banks, in the United States, who

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lobbied the government for 
regulatory exemptions over. 

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The years, European banks have 
underperformed US Banks. 

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Since the credit crunch, largely
driven by this additional 

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regulatory burden that they 
face. 

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But the idea is that if 
Regulators are going to agree to

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bail out Banks, from time to 
time, Time. 

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They should reasonably put 
restrictions in place as to how 

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much risk. 
These banks are allowed to take 

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the economist Matthew Klein 
argued in a blog post earlier 

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this week that Banks today can 
be seen as speculative 

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investment funds grafted on top 
of critical infrastructure and 

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that this structure is designed 
to extract subsidies from the 

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rest of society, by threatening 
civilians would crises if the 

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banks bet are ever allowed. 
Fail. 

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He goes on to argue that the US 
government's response to the 

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collapses of Silicon Valley Bank
and Signature Bank, effectively 

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removing the cap on Deposit 
Insurance. 

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While letting lenders borrow 
relatively cheaply against 

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fictitious asset values, is a 
reminder that those threats 

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usually work. 
Now while credit, suisse's 

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balance sheet was reasonably 
strong. 

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Unlike the u.s. banks that 
collapsed last week. 

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His reputation was obviously not
the unending list of scandals. 

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Most of them coming from the 
farm, Senior Management and its 

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Investment Banking division have
destroyed the ones impressive 

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brand, this loss of reputation 
has driven away the top talent 

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and the firm's customers 
collapsing profitability. 

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We've seen this week that, this 
profitability issue in a climate

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of fear can put a firm like 
credit Suite on the Rocks. 

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So what might Happen. 
Next with the Swiss National 

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Bank back in Credit Suisse and 
with its balance sheet and 

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decent order. 
It seems highly unlikely that 

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liquidity issues will sink the 
ship. 

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This makes a Silicon Valley Bank
style Bank Run way less likely 

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but while the central bank can 
provide liquidity it can't 

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provide a good business model 
and that's what Credit Suisse 

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need customers. 
Have to see a good reason as to 

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why they should choose to deal 
with. 

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A tarnished brand like Credit 
Suisse the Swiss National Bank 

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does have the tools to prevent 
an immediate bank failure, but 

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the management of credit Suite 
has to find a way of turning 

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around the firm's reputation and
its profitability which are 

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linked for investors. 
The bank's liquidity is not its 

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fundamental problem. 
Instead, they worried that its 

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business model is simply 
unprofitable. 

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The current CEO has been in 
Israel for less than a year. 

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00:13:27,700 --> 00:13:30,900
And it's a difficult path ahead 
of him in October. 

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00:13:30,900 --> 00:13:35,100
He announced a restructuring 
plan to cut costs, reduce the 

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00:13:35,100 --> 00:13:39,400
size of the workforce and sell 
part of the securitized products

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00:13:39,400 --> 00:13:43,500
unit to Pimco and Apollo. 
He additionally outlined plans 

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to spin off the capital markets 
and advisory business over the 

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next three years under a 
rejuvinated CS first. 

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00:13:51,600 --> 00:13:56,700
Boston Brand the options on the 
table if things continue in 

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their current Action include 
tearing up this restructuring 

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plan spinning off its with unit,
a full takeover by another bank 

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or in a worst case scenario the 
resolution of the bank in a call

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00:14:11,100 --> 00:14:15,500
with clients on Wednesday, 
JPMorgan analyst key in Abu 

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00:14:15,500 --> 00:14:19,700
Hussein said that at Credit 
Suisse is most likely Destiny 

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00:14:19,900 --> 00:14:23,400
was a takeover by its Swiss 
rifle UPS. 

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00:14:23,700 --> 00:14:26,800
Now, a merger between 
Switzerland's, two largest 

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00:14:26,800 --> 00:14:29,300
banks. 
Been discussed for quite some 

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time but has been seen as 
unlikely for antitrust reasons. 

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The current situation has led to
speculation that such a takeover

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could occur. 
If Regulators felt it was the 

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best way of stabilizing, one of 
the country's most important 

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financial institutions under a 
more extreme scenario. 

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Some are arguing that the 
Central Bank could step into 

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guarantee the deposit take full 
control of the business. 

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Sell it off in pieces and wind 
the rest down. 

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This would be politically 
difficult, especially if Swiss 

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00:15:04,800 --> 00:15:09,400
taxpayers were to take a hit, 
not to mention the embarrassment

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of one of the country's biggest 
companies being brought down. 

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So, anyhow my suggestion for 
credit Suite, which I feel is a 

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00:15:18,000 --> 00:15:21,800
good one is less banking, more 
rubber clogs. 

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00:15:21,900 --> 00:15:25,400
It works for the Crocs people 
and it's the banking thing that 

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00:15:25,400 --> 00:15:28,000
seems to keep getting Credit. 
Suisse Bubble. 

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00:15:28,500 --> 00:15:30,300
Thanks for tuning in to the 
podcast. 

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00:15:30,300 --> 00:15:33,000
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and talk to you again soon. 

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Bye. 
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